RE 12-13: LADISLAV SMID

Google translate tells me the Czech word for “rock” is “skála” and for Edmonton Oiler fans Laddy Smid has become one. An absolute skála on the blueline every night.

RE 12-13: 72, 2-8-10

  1. How important is Smid to the Oilers? Huge. He’s been solid for quite some time now and the old problems–back door, defending himself–seem to have gone away.
  2. What makes him so good? The Vollman Sledgehammer tells us he is in the Reservoir Dogs quadrant with Petry (and the departed Gilbert) with just a slight white bubble. Based on the qualcomp/zone start that’s a pretty nice player.
  3. Is Smid or Petry driving the bus? I’m not going to ask who’s zooming who at this point. Smid was the constant between Gilbert and Petry on the pairing so we’re going to give him a full share of the credit.
  4. Isn’t it interesting that the two guys you were hardest on a few years ago now form the Oilers best pairing? Isn’t that interesting? I find it fascinating. Yes, quite right. Very interesting.
  5. Maybe you should have hated Pouliot. Poor Poo. That bastard never had a chance, what with you cheering for him and all. Can we move on?
  6. He certainly is getting a lot of attention. Yes, but I find it interesting that people mention the hits and the shot blocks but aren’t focusing on the calm feet and the safe plays.
  7. Is he a good shot blocker? His 184 blocked shots ranked him 7th among defensemen in the entire NHL and he certainly became known for it this season.
  8. Did he hit a lot? Smid led the Oilers with 186 hits and that ranked him in a 13th place tie among all defensemen in the league.
  9. That’s excellent. What else did he do well? Smid faced the toughest opposition and delivered a strong season. His CorsiRel under those circumstances and with this team is splendid, and his ZS finish was a marvel.
  10. Did he play a lot? Yes. He led D in PK time (3:22 per game) and his 17:28EV ice time was third behind Petry and the departed Gilbert. Smid was a big part of the team.
  11. Smid should be part of the future? Oh yeah, if the Oilers can sign him to a reasonable number then Smid should be a big part of the future. Along with Petry and the long list of kids we know by heart, that could be a nice group at some point in time.
  12. Smid’s going to have a long career. He’s one of those guys who should pass 1,000 games without even breaking a sweat at this point. Most defensemen break down within about a year or two of where our guy Schultz is now.
  13. Have you ever been fond of this player type? You mean the extreme stay-at-home D? Sure. Don Awrey was a favorite of mine, but most defensemen bring at least a little offense. Bob Baun did, Jason Smith too. Most of the guys on the ice when the other team has their best players out there can handle the puck well and have enough creativity to send the forwards away with frequency.
  14. Smid scored 5 goals last season. Yes he did, I found it amusing because there was a time when (especially the first season or so) I thought he might be able to use that speed in an offensive manner. But I think the 5 goals did not reflect his true ability.
  15. How many years in a row would he need to score 5 goals in order for it to be considered a skill he could duplicate? From this point in his career?  He’d have to do it a few times I think. Smid has played 409 games and even with last season’s total sits at 9 overall. That’s 1.82 goals per 82 games played, and that’s what I have him doing this season.
  16. Which player on the roster most closely duplicates his skills? Nick Schultz. Smid’s the better player according to math and saw him good, but if Laddy were to get hurt then Schultz might be the best available to step in.
  17. Are you posting the RE by pairings? Yes.
  18. So, no chance he plays with Justin Schultz? Sure, that’s an idea but the club needs a top pairing and Smid is part of that solution.
  19. What is he most famous for as an Oiler? According to this article, he could play here for another 20 years and the thing he’ll always be remembered for his head shot (well puck shot) to coach Tom Renney.
  20. Are you finally a fan? Oh sure. Always happy the Oilers have a good player. I think Smid’s career could have been helped with a couple of years in the minors but that’s water under the bridge now. I’m glad he’s an Oiler, hope he signs long term.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

68 Responses to "RE 12-13: LADISLAV SMID"

  1. Lucinius says:

    So you don’t want him traded now, LT?

    I’ve always been a fan of Smid, but I have a soft spot for Eastern European defenders. Far too many fond memories of drunken Russians and the like.

    Smid I came to like because he has surprisingly good speed and passing ability and yet had the survival instincts of road kill after it’d been run over. He was just so utterly hapless in defending himself you had to like him, if only out of pity that he was going to die on the ice.. likely from a self inflicted run in with the boards and his own stick.

    I still want to see Smid on a shoot out.

    No one will have scouted him. I guarantee it.

  2. DBO says:

    Wow, a Sunday long weekend post. Crazy, but a happy surprise after a day of yard work, farmers markets and a few beers. maybe some home depot, don’t know if we’ll have time..

    i digress.

    I fully believe you need 2 of these guys on your roster to have a shot at winning anything. Smid and Shultz (older) give us two high end top drawer shut down guys. Both have 3-5 more years of usefulness and both will be part of the stanley run. Smid had offense in his youth, so I wonder if he’ll Staios is up a bit and start heading closer to 15-20 pts. Doubtful, but 15 form Smid, 15 from Shultz, along with 25 from Petry and 35 from younger Shultz gives us a solid top 4. Add kelfbom in a year along with a solid vet (maybe Whitney if he’s healthy) and everything changes, with our backend becoming a strength. Any run in the playoffs rest on the shoulders of the D, and it’s as simple as that for this team.

  3. Woodguy says:

    Why do you hate Smid?

  4. jp says:

    3. Is Smid or Petry driving the bus? I’m not going to ask who’s zooming who at this point. Smid was the constant between Gilbert and Petry on the pairing so we’re going to give him a full share of the credit.

    Ricki came on strong in the last thread suggesting it was Smid. Could well be, but I would think he benefits from playing a puck mover as much as visa versa. I wonder too if the GF/60 for Gilbert and Petry was also lower when playing with Smid? Low event all around. Sorry, but I don’t know how to look that up for myself. In any case, it’s great that he’s finally developed into a (really) solid player.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    Skala is more of a giant rock, something you scale which is still applicable. Smid is a giant rock for this team, he goes down and we are back to discussing lottery picks at christmas.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    I do think Smid has more offense then you suggest. He definitely pinched more last season than previous seasons. I would say 4goals and 15 a for 19 pts.

  7. jp says:

    12. Smid’s going to have a long career. He’s one of those guys who should pass 1,000 games without even breaking a sweat at this point. Most defensemen break down within about a year or two of where our guy Schultz is now.

    Sure hope you mean Schultz Sr. here… :) Counting on a lot of good years from J. Schultz.
    Hopefully N. Schultz can hold it together for 3, 4, 5 more years, but you’re right that his mileage is a concern.

  8. Woodguy says:

    jp:
    3. Is Smid or Petry driving the bus? I’m not going to ask who’s zooming who at this point. Smid was the constant between Gilbert and Petry on the pairing so we’re going to give him a full share of the credit.

    Ricki came on strong in the last thread suggesting it was Smid. Could well be, but I would think he benefits from playing a puck mover as much as visa versa. I wonder too if the GF/60 for Gilbert and Petry was also lower when playing with Smid? Low event all around. Sorry, but I don’t know how to look that up for myself. In any case, it’s great that he’s finally developed into a (really) solid player.

    Ricki uses goal data. I prefer shot data as goals are too rare to give you big pictures. They are more like snap shots. Another way to look at it is that a goal is a close up view, where shot data is the 30,000ft view.

    Smid 2010/11

    Two most common partners were Gilbert and Petry.

    Shot percentage 5v5 (all situations)

    Smid and Gilbert together .510 (433 minutes together)
    Smid apart .452
    Gilbert apart .470

    Sum of the parts greater than parts alone

    Smid and Petry together .488 (294 minutes together)
    Smid apart .467
    Petry apart .517

    Smid’s 2011/12 Shots percentage 5v5 (all situations), most common teammates Gilbert and Petry again.

    Smid and Petry together .497 (488 minutes together)
    Smid apart .458
    Petry apart .487

    Gilbert and Smid .497 (589 minutes together)
    Smid apart .465
    Gilbert apart .466

    Again with both pairings, the sum is greater than the parts.

    It looks like Smid isn’t driving the bus, but given that 3 of 4 situations shows the sum of the parts are greater than the individual parts, he has some significant influence on this possession/shot metric.

  9. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    I do think Smid has more offense then you suggest.He definitely pinched more last season than previous seasons. I would say 4goals and 15 a for 19 pts.

    I agree with LT on this, at one point I thought some offense might develop, but I’ve given up hope (and do think the 5 goals last year was an anomaly). LT mentioned 9 career goals including the 5 last year. He also had 3 in his rookie season, meaning 1 goal total in the 4 seasons in between.

    He’s pinching lots, but he just skates around in the corner with it (yes, and also behind the net a bit). His shots totals have been 48 and 47 the last 2 years – he’s not getting the puck to the net. I think “extreme stay-at-home D” is a fair description. Luckily he’s good at his primary job.

  10. jp says:

    Woodguy: Ricki uses goal data.I prefer shot data as goals are too rare to give you big pictures.They are more like snap shots.Another way to look at it is that a goal is a close up view, where shot data is the 30,000ft view.

    Smid 2010/11

    Two most common partners were Gilbert and Petry.

    Shot percentage 5v5 (all situations)

    Smid and Gilbert together .510 (433 minutes together)
    Smid apart .452
    Gilbert apart .470

    Sum of the parts greater than parts alone

    Smid and Petry together .488(294 minutes together)
    Smid apart .467
    Petry apart .517

    Smid’s 2011/12 Shots percentage 5v5 (all situations), most common teammates Gilbert and Petry again.

    Smid and Petry together .497 (488 minutes together)
    Smid apart .458
    Petry apart .487

    Gilbert and Smid .497 (589 minutes together)
    Smid apart .465
    Gilbert apart .466

    Again with both pairings, the sum is greater than the parts.

    It looks like Smid isn’t driving the bus, but given that 3 of 4 situations shows the sum of the parts are greater than the individual parts, he has some significant influence on this possession/shot metric.

    That is interesting. Certainly does support some synergy for Smid with both Gilbert and Petry. However in all 4 cases Smid’s shot % is lower than partner w/o Smid, as well as lower than the pair together. Not that he isn’t contributing, but looks like he may benefit from playing with Gilbert/Petry more than they do from him.

    Also, for future reference, what site is this from?

  11. TheOtherJohn says:

    Smid, god love him, finally gets it. He has become a superior defender, is hard to play against and has played his way into a small group of core untouchables. Sign him for 4-5 years and pencil him in for 18-22 minutes a night for the next 5 years.

    If in February Smid remains unsigned and we start to hear the typical EdM MSM whisper campaign that Smid “is the first guy off the ice at practice”; “he’s not dedicated to the team”; “his teammates question his toughness” & “he doesn’t score enough” BS, it really is time to fire the entire hockey operations staff.

    There are lots of things Smid does not do particularly well. Guess what? Gretzky was not particularly good at checking, he left the D zone a wee bit early and he did not play very physically……. Other things he was mostly pretty good at.

    Another litmus test for this management group. They know what they have , now it’s time to sign him.

    PS if we need another RH D, can we trade Nic Schultz to Minny for Tom Gilbert? What …… Fletcher started laughing and then hung up on us.

  12. Lowetide says:

    TOJ: lol It’s funny because it is true. “He nailed Renney with that shot, you know. I wonder if he really cares.”

  13. loosemoose says:

    Nick Schultz is a good fill in for Smid????

    I don’t get the hate for Nick. Between the whining of the Gilbert trade and now this?

    A fill in for Smid?

    I am obviously in the minority, but Nick Schultz is a better shutdown dman than Smid still, IMO.

    Why the hate? I guess it is coming from the same guy who wanted to trade Smid……:)

  14. Lowetide says:

    I like Schultz. Oilers didn’t use him on the top pairing though, they used Smid.

  15. sliderule says:

    I think all you advanced stats guys have way too much time on your hands.

    Get a hobby,find a sport you can play or read a book.

    Get a life

  16. JohnnyRocket says:

    loosemoose:
    Nick Schultz is a good fill in for Smid????

    I don’t get the hate for Nick. Between the whining of the Gilbert trade and now this?

    A fill in for Smid?

    I am obviously in the minority, but Nick Schultz is a better shutdown dman than Smid still, IMO.

    Why the hate? I guess it is coming from the same guy who wanted to trade Smid……:)

    I don’t know if it is hate for Nick, but rather a reasoned assessment of his strengths and weaknesses. Him and Smid are really close in the “calm feet” and “good reads” department (the two most important for a defensive D, in my humble opinion) but Smid has the advantage in size, physical
    play, shot blocks, and, my personal favorite, roughing up players after the whistle.

  17. DSF says:

    The thing with Laddy is that he is like an anus.

    Most teams not only have one…but two or three.

    Relying on him to be a top pairing defenseman says far more about the teams defensive depth than it does about Smid.

    How does he stack up against the top defensive players in the conference like Hamhuis, Suter, etc.?

    On many good teams, he is a #4 defenseman.

  18. Lowetide says:

    I see DSF found his hobby

  19. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    I think all you advanced stats guys have way too much time on your hands.

    Get a hobby,find a sport you can play or read a book.

    Get a life

    It took me under 3 minutes to put that post together.

    Perhaps we are just better at many things so it just looks complicated.

  20. sliderule says:

    @wood guy
    I would love to compare what I have done in my life with you anytime

  21. unca miltie says:

    Lowetide:
    I see DSF found his hobby

    The best laugh of the day

  22. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    @wood guy
    I would love to compare what I have done in my life with you anytime

    Like wanting to compare e-penises on a hockey blog?

    Or going to a hockey blog where people like to discuss fancy stats and declaring that everyone should get a life?

    I’m sure you’re the champ.

  23. OilLeak says:

    Woodguy with the KO!

  24. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    I see DSF found his hobby

    You really need to expand your horizons a little.

    Saying Smid is the best shutdown option available to the Oilers is not the same as saying Smid is a great shut down option when comparing him to what the other teams in the WC can bring to the party.

    Let’s look at just one example (there are many).

    Smid – 6’3″ 210 – drafted 9th overall.

    Hamhuis – 6’1″ 210 – drafted 12th overall.

    Smid – 78 GP 5G 10A 15P +4

    Hamhuis – 82GP 4G 33A 37P +29

    QC:

    Smid – 4th

    Hamhuis – 2nd

    Off Zone start:

    Smid – 49.3

    Hamhuis – 46.8

    So, Smid has an easier row to hoe, plays slightly more PK time, can’t work on a PP and gets absolutely creamed in scoring.

    That’s a #4 defenseman on any good team.

  25. rickithebear says:

    OilLeak:
    Woodguy with the KO!

    Yes cause the game is won on shots and a goalie shooting a puck from in front of the net is as effective as shooting in front of the net.

    it is real sad that you guys think this data is equal.

    you use shots cause you are unwilling to accept the fact there are more variables affect the result from the point of release to the net.

    Corsi tells us how often the puck is directed in a game.
    you guys are basing goal on shots generated by attack waves during pocession. a 4 shot variance from mean.

    Continue to tell me how 10% success data is more helpful than 100% result.

    Oilleak KO! have you ever thrown a punch?

  26. OilLeak says:

    DSF,

    You may want to check those QC numbers again DSF.

  27. Lowetide says:

    ricki: Where is your proof? You may have a point, but I can’t see it in there for all the ‘you guys’ stuff. And for crying out loud can we get rid of the ‘have you ever thrown a punch?” stuff.

    I think there’s going to be a lot of empties tomorrow. :-)

  28. OilLeak says:

    rickithebear: Yes cause the game is won on shots and a goalie shooting a puck from in front of the net is as effective as shooting in frontof the net.

    it is real sad that you guys think this data is equal.

    you use shots cause you are unwilling to accept the fact there are more variables affect the result from the point of release to the net.

    Corsi tells us how often the puck is directed in a game.
    you guys are basing goal on shots generated by attack waves during pocession. a 4 shot variance from mean.

    Continue to tell me how 10% success data is more helpful than 100% result.

    Oilleak KO! have you ever thrown a punch?

    Somewhere along the line you imagined an argument that I didn’t make.

  29. rickithebear says:

    DSF: QC:
    Smid – 4th
    Hamhuis – 2nd

    Smid 0.049 QC
    Petry .029
    Hamhuis 0.027

    what the fuck are you talking about.

  30. Ducey says:

    DSF,

    Is it your hobby or vocation? The way you try and stir the pot around here you would think you were getting paid for it.

    Anyway,

    Smid: Q of T -.018 Q of C .049 Corsi Rel Q of C 1.366

    Hamster: Q of T .027 Q of C .027 Corsi Rel Q of C .815

    Golly. Perhaps Smid compares well with Hamhuis. Perhaps, shockingly, there is room for more than one number one defenseman in the NHL?

    To say that Smid is a #4 is classic troll speak.

  31. steveb12344 says:

    DSF,

    Hamhuis: 82g 103 hits 99 blocks 62 giveaways

    Smid: 78g 186 hits 184 blocks 47 giveaways

    You pick one guy from prez. trophy team, and that equates to half the dmen in the league?

  32. bookje says:

    WG – I think you demonstrated to Sliderule how superior he is to all of us here and he has moved on to be with his own kind.

    Does anyone else find it strange that someone names Sliderule doesn’t like advanced math. Maybe it doesn’t actually refer to a slide rule, but rather its because he is like the king of the slides at some waterpark or something.

    Anyway – my e-Penis is so large, it doesn’t fit through the internet gateway.

  33. bookje says:

    Speaking of comparing what we do with our lives.

    I am boring enough that I am at my computer to watch the Mars Rover Landing.

    http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/

    I am sure that Bruce is at a Landing Party. Anyone else watching?

  34. steveb12344 says:

    Also on this Gilbert thing. I won’t deny Shultz wasn’t quite fair value,though i think he may have filled a need quite nicely. After all i think at the time we needed more help in the keeping the puck out category, than the putting the puck in.

    It just seemed to me that something smelled funny with that trade. Was it really just a coincidence that he happened to get traded back to his home town? It just seemed awfully random at the time, and seemed like they got what they could in schultz, almost as if Tambos hands were tied.

    I know it is just speculation, and i’m sure Tambi will take it to the grave with him before divulging any inside info.

    It doesn’t seem like that much of a reach that maybe Gibby got fed up with everything in E-town and secretly asked to be traded back home.

    Either way we will probably never know for sure, but it seems to me, more likely to have gone down like that then just some random trade for less then fair value, to a division rival that just happens to be Gibbys hometown

  35. rickithebear says:

    LT: I have put on the gloves to understand the fighting process.
    Learned from one of the 5 most honourable people i have met.

    http://www.inmemoriam.ca/view-announcement-292672-thomas-naphthali-settee.html

    My boys choir practise was up stairs , boxing was in the basement.

    Lt it was a legitamate question.
    Golfed with him 5 times a year.
    A process quite similiar to speed golf.
    With tommy you were expected to have selected club and adressing ball as he was walking by.

    The point! getting knocked out is rare.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Bookje: Yep. I’m watching. Haven’t seen that much powder blue since the Expos!

  37. mattwatt says:

    We know all stats aren’t equal Rickibear. Only the ones that make Ben Eager have some semblance of a hockey are superior.

    As for Smid, I was going to comment how his backdoor games has improved so much from prior years, so nice to see, but a poster above me said this was an advance stat website and that type of commentary is not welcomed here. Sorry guys, will not make this mistake again.

    Don’t know why do we keep talking about hockey as if it as “pocession” game. Doesn’t matter what car you drive to get there, just as long as you get there, right guys? Because we all know Porsche 911 = Ford Pinto; both vehicles will get you home.

  38. TheOtherJohn says:

    Have never understood anyone prefacing their educational background and accomplishments in their arguments. Actually seems pretty insecure but I an sure that is indicative of my inadquacies. Best arguments persuade me with the strength of their arguments.

    DSF

    Like Hamhuis lots. Like Smid just as much. Expect he will get a similar contract too. But if the argument is Smid is not a comparable, you are wrong

  39. bookje says:

    Lowetide: ected club an

    I am just waiting for DSF to come on and tell us how screwed up NASA is and that “the Chinese are so far ahead of the west it is laughable” and then pull some cherry picked stat like “successful missions vs cost based upon primary currency units” to support his argument.

  40. jb says:

    *Whips out penis*
    /end of discussion

    Ah this thread was good for some laughs.

    Smid’s an all around beauty for sure though. Personal favorite of mine since he became an Oiler. If you couldn’t see Smids’ game easily translating into a solid top 4 defensemen early on, your guilty of relying on the math a little (a lot) too much imo.

  41. jp says:

    bookje:
    WG – I think you demonstrated to Sliderule how superior he is to all of us here and he has moved on to be with his own kind.

    Does anyone else find it strange that someone names Sliderule doesn’t like advanced math.Maybe it doesn’t actually refer to a slide rule, but rather its because he is like the king of the slides at some waterpark or something.

    Anyway – my e-Penis is so large, it doesn’t fit through the internet gateway.

    I really thought the original comment was a joke. And yes, I noted the irony of “sliderule” making an anti-math comment. Likely part of why I thought it was a joke.

  42. jp says:

    rickithebear: Yes cause the game is won on shots and a goalie shooting a puck from in front of the net is as effective as shooting in frontof the net.

    it is real sad that you guys think this data is equal.

    you use shots cause you are unwilling to accept the fact there are more variables affect the result from the point of release to the net.

    Corsi tells us how often the puck is directed in a game.
    you guys are basing goal on shots generated by attack waves during pocession. a 4 shot variance from mean.

    Continue to tell me how 10% success data is more helpful than 100% result.

    Ricki, I think the only issue is sample size. Everyone agrees that goals are a better indicator of goals than shots are. But with the relatively small number of goals scored by a specific player, or when a specific player is on the ice, random variation can play a huge role in the outcome. There are ~10X more shots than goals, so the random variation is smaller. You know this, right?

    I’m pretty sure everyone also understands and agrees that not all shots are equal and don’t have the same probability of ending up in the net. It’s not an unwillingness to accept that there are more variables, it’s a lack of access to data on those variables. Using goal data vs using shot data each have their own limitations, but even with these limitations, a lot of people seem to think shot data has some real value, myself included.

  43. "Steve Smith" says:

    jb:
    *Whips out penis*
    /end of discussion

    BECAUSE IT’S SO SMALL? BURN!

    (I may be surrounded by a few empties myself.)

    (This business of there being a JP and a JB is going to be confusing. One of these days I’m going to lose track of which one I’m feuding with in any given week, and mistakenly aim my dick beam at the other one.)

  44. bookje says:

    This is exciting – “We have acquired the ground with radar, down to 90 meters per second, 5 kms from the ground”

  45. Woodguy says:

    jp: I really thought the original comment was a joke. And yes, I noted the irony of “sliderule” making an anti-math comment. Likely part of why I thought it was a joke.

    So did I, which is why I used the word “we”.

    His response was unexpected to say the least.

  46. Lowetide says:

    WHOOO HOOOOO~ I have NO idea what I’ve just seen!

  47. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    WHOOO HOOOOO~ I have NO idea what I’ve just seen!

    Me neither, but I have never seen so many awkward and missed high fives. Man, IQ’s that are stunning, but coordination lacking.

    It was pretty awesomely exciting though.

  48. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    The people in the control room sure seem happy, though – it’s exactly the opposite of Apollo 13. Well, except for the part of Apollo 13 where Tom Hanks & Co. make it back safely.

  49. bookje says:

    Wooo Hooo, the wheel, its the wheel!

  50. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Lowetide,

    The people in the control room sure seem happy, though – it’s exactly the opposite of Apollo 13.Well, except for the part of Apollo 13 where Tom Hanks & Co. make it back safely.

    That ending was so fake, in reality those guys would have never have made it home after all of the problems that they had.

  51. "Steve Smith" says:

    Sorry, should have included a spoiler alert in my last comment.

  52. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje: That ending was so fake, in reality those guys would have never have made it home after all of the problems that they had.

    It’s not fake, dumbass, it really happened – that’s how Tom Hanks is able to keep making movies.

  53. Lowetide says:

    SS: Don’t worry, NBC won’t have this for months. That second photo was awesome! Looks like my kids room.

  54. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”: It’s not fake, dumbass, it really happened – that’s how Tom Hanks is able to keep making movies.

    So how did they get him off the island?

  55. Lowetide says:

    Gilligan did it!

  56. bookje says:

    “Wow, look at Kev, he has been break-dancing on the floor ever since Curiosity landed, he is totally thrilled, look at him jerk around, he’s totally spastic”

    “Hey, isn’t Kevin allergic to peanuts?”

  57. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide:
    Gilligan did it!

    Bullshit – I never saw Bob Denver star in anything else.

  58. Woodguy says:

    jp: Ricki, I think the only issue is sample size. Everyone agrees that goals are a better indicator of goals than shots are. But with the relatively small number of goals scored by a specific player, or when a specific player is on the ice, random variation can play a huge role in the outcome. There are ~10X more shots than goals, so the random variation is smaller. You know this, right?

    I’m pretty sure everyone also understands and agrees that not all shots are equal and don’t have the same probability of ending up in the net. It’s not an unwillingness to accept that there are more variables, it’s a lack of access to data on those variables. Using goal data vs using shot data each have their own limitations, but even with these limitations, a lot of people seem to think shot data has some real value, myself included.

    That’s well written and spot on sir.

    The other problem with goal data is the severe fluctuations in ONSV% and ONSH% for the same players over time.

    It shows how much variance (luck) there is in goal scoring, and makes the data not that useful, or at the very least less useful than shot data, which seems much more repeatable and has been show to be highly correlated with winning hockey games.

    I think the people who focus on goals are simply results oriented, which is fine, but the data is small and full of noise. (like Bookie’s epeen)

    Shot data isn’t the end all be all either, but its better.

  59. bookje says:

    Woodguy: That’s well written and spot on sir.

    The other problem with goal data is the severe fluctuations in ONSV% and ONSH% for the same players over time.

    What the hell are you talking about? This is a blog about NASA mars missions.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Apple laptops everywhere.

  61. sliderule says:

    There are stats that would be worth keeping.

    Like basketball we could track every shot by every player.Location,miss,block or goal.To me this would be useful.

    Time of possession would be intereting.How much does puck control affect the game.

    There are a lot of stats like turnovers and takeaways that are kept by teams but not much is written on that.
    Staples keeping track of who is responsible for goals for and against makes sense.

    My problem with the work being done is it’s fixated on Corsi and zone starts.All sorts of conclusions are being drawn from mostly meaningless facts.That to me is rather useless and waste of time for a lot of intelligent people

    I apologize if I offended the advanced stats people but after a couple of beers my head just exploded.

  62. jp says:

    Woodguy:

    but the data is small and full of noise. (like Bookie’s epeen)

    I think you mean “inadequate”

  63. Woodguy says:

    sliderule,

    My problem with the work being done is it’s fixated on Corsi and zone starts.All sorts of conclusions are being drawn from mostly meaningless facts.That to me is rather useless and waste of time for a lot of intelligent people

    Its fine that you feel that way, but why do you think that shot differential information is mostly meaningless?

    The guys who are at the front of this stuff have shown correlations that show its not meaningless.

    Its not perfect, but right now I think its the best we have.

  64. Lowetide says:

    Burtch is a smart, funny guy. Good stuff, very nice writing style makes for an easy read.

  65. rickithebear says:

    sliderule: My problem with the work being done is it’s fixated on Corsi and zone starts.All sorts of conclusions are being drawn from mostly meaningless facts.

    Sliderule they are not meaningless.

    they are point in time.

    A puck released off a stick for someone to subjectively say it is a shot.

    Alan ryders look at shoy type vs distance success rate is abetter way of giving a more usefull value.

    Just like staples took at errors is far superior look at players GA.

    Sliderule: you do get it. it is the idea of advancing the ability to record far superior stats.

    A. Retrieval: who is good at causing turnovers in which zone

    B. Pocession up to Shot. who controlled the puck in what zone. Oh look a far superior (realistic) zone start.
    I would like to see a blend of :

    http://soccermeter.com/wp/

    http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/drivechart?gameId=320205017
    With individual pocession.

    C, The type of shot and location of release point. this would be allan ryders work missing the exact location on the shot chart (available from CBS, NBC)

    http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/gamecast?gameId=400262124

    d. Shot path: Clear Screened, Block, Offensive or defensicve deflection which changes pocession.
    We ned to introduce OG like soccer to allow fro defensive scores.
    The entire puck path can be traced by using technology that anoyed us in the past.

    http://www.sportvision.com/hockey.html
    the creators of Fox Track

    e. Goalie position and movement
    like pitch charts and Area coverage chart (animated weather chart by time)

    Have animated elevation of net coverage from release to goalie showing a top view path and path relative to elevtion of net.

    We need the majic puck.

  66. sliderule says:

    Rickithebear I like your thinking.You are challenging the conventional.

    When soccer teams track the time of possession and hockey doesnt what does that say.

    When basket ball tracks every shot for every player and they might have 180 shots in a typical game and hockey dosnt when they might have 60 what does that say.

    The point I am trying to make we could be so much better.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca