RE 12-13: NIKOLAI KHABIBULIN
Nikolai Khababulin’s long NHL career (16th all-time G in regular season GP) appears to be nearing an end. The last four seasons have been a (lucrative) struggle. Does he have anything left?
RE 12-13: 10, 3.10 .897
- You think he’s done? Yes.
- You thought he was done a year ago? He was, save for an insane period at the beginning of the year.
- You hated the signing. Hater. Actually, my reaction was probably the most positive on the oilogosphere. Quote: I don’t like the money and don’t like the terms. I’m completely fine with the goalie, he’s always been a favorite of mine.
- Why did you like him? I saw him good in Winnipeg years ago, he had a nice track record and some success along the way. Mostly I prefer veteran goalies and NK was–at that time–an veteran, proven replacement for Roloson (although injury history was a concern).
- They should have signed Roloson. Yes.
- NK had a strong season, his best in awhile. He had a strong 14 games, his best in forever.
- Khabibulin had a hella-start last season. Out of his mind.
- What was his EV SP? .913.
- Not good? 38th in the NHL among what we might call regulars. DD was tied for 13th, clearly superior.
- So, that’s the end of this edition of RE? Usually, but people have asked so I’m going to do a Krueger RE in the next few days.
- Cool. We’ll see. I don’t really know what we can see from here, but I’ll have a lash.
- Now that the GF-GA numbers are out, can we talk about them? Yes. 224-223.
- That’s playoff country! It is much improved season over season (207-220) but I do believe the forwards will be that much better.
- Where do they finish 12-13? I haven’t figured out an estimate, but will guess 9th-12th.
- Can you narrow it down? 9th or 10th. I don’t think they’ll be a playoff team, though.
- What would they need to do in order to make the post-season? Add a veteran defenseman, and a better backup than Khabibulin.
- Anything else? If someone gets hurt, replacing them with a capable hand might be an idea.
- Oilers don’t do that. I know, but legend has it that teams are able to add help during the season.
- You mean like trading Bill Guerin for Anson Carter? Sort of, except we’d get Guerin this time.
- Huh. Who knew? Yeah.
- So Hall and the Nuge take flight? That’s the story? Yes, along with Hemsky driving the bus on his line and a few others improving–Gagner, Paajarvi, Hartikainen.
- Your Eberle RE got a lot of negative attention. Actually, I was pleasantly surprised by people’s calm reaction to it. Many disagreed, but for the most point felt that Eberle could indeed fall back from last season. I didn’t think it would get any reaction at all, but sometimes things get blown out of proportion on the internet. Credit where due, the posts here and at ON–and on the radio–moved the conversation forward.
- So you admit you were wrong. No, I think Eberle should be expected to score 55 points, as stated. If he scores 60, people should be genuinely pleased but I don’t think they will be, and that’s too bad.
- Why? We’ve been over this, but the % of points Eberle was “in on” while on the ice, his shooting percentage, his PP and ZS push and his 5×5/60 being 2nd best in the entire NHL. It was a wonderful season, it is not reasonable to expect the same or better in 12-13.
- And you really punished Yakupov. He’ll score 30. If he scores 30, would you be thrilled?
- YES! Exactly.
I think NK’s a decent guy, has been a good player during his career, but I hope halfway thru training camp he does the honourable thing and retires.
These kids really miss Dougie Hamilton. D is struggling.
Yak really goal-sucking this game. Should change his first name to Leenus.
Yakupov is invisible in this series so far.
NK might very well have another 10-15 game hot streak. It’s not clear what’s left in the tank. I suspect the Oilers will get what they can and not try to push it much further, and NK is probably keenly aware of this.
Rondo: yeah, I haven’t been seeing much effort from Yakupov in this RE series. He always seems to be the first off the ice.
Set up Grigs with a beauty pass in the 2nd, but Grigorenko couldn’t finish.
I bet he’s first off the ice at practice.
Note: I hear that too, but I can’t resist with the comments. I apologize for more in advance.
What a shift. Hube playing well and Rattie has been everywhere all game.
Rielly has totally outplayed Dumba so far this game.
And deeloper beats me to the punch.
I’m old.
Your Eberle RE got a lot of negative attention. Actually, I was pleasantly surprised by people’s calm reaction to it. Many disagreed, but for the most point felt that Eberle could indeed fall back from last season. I didn’t think it would get any reaction at all, but sometimes things get blown out of proportion on the internet. Credit where due, the posts here and at ON–and on the radio–moved the conversation forward.
You’re talking about Eberle in a Khabby thread?
Why do you hate Eberle so much?
does anyone remember the Nuge in Edmonton last August for the 2-game series (Rexall and Ft Mac)? Remarkably similar. Lots of time going unnoticed and then bam! That SH pass on the Russian goal by Yakupov was very nice. As was his goal in G1
I can see why the scouts get frustrated with Grigs. When he wants to move his feet, he can really fly, but you don’t see it every shift.
You know, he’s always had the shooter label, but his vision and passing have been almost equally as impressive this series.
He looks lazy out there. No drive to the puck.
He’s a looser!
Wow. A thrill a minute barnstormer. Fun to watch if you hate defensive systems.
I can handle the goal sucking and the first off the ice thing, it’s really his body language that has convinced me that the Oilers made the wrong pick!
I don’t like the way he holds his stick.
Couple of exhibition games and people have made decision’s. Now those people will hope Yakupov fails just to fit their premise.
Forget the scouts I know more after 3 games then they do.
I question his vision. Not on ice vision, but vision! I don’t think his peepers work!
An Oilers fan:
“That Yakupov is a square peg and his future Oiler linemates are round holes.”
“Yakupov needs to work on hs fitness.”
“Yakupov needs grit.”
“Yakupov needs to be more of a team player.”
“Boooo! Get your butt in gear you dirty Yak!”
“Yakupov is overpaid by 3MM”
“Yakupov left for the KHL? What a jerk.”
LT,
Since the league expanded to thirty teams (starting in 2000-01), there have been thirty instances of a team finishing with a goal differential somewhere between -5 and +5 (the average is +1.3). The average finishing position of those teams in their respective Conference (before awarding 1-2-3 for division winners) is 7.8 with the breakdown as follows:
4th – 2 times
5th – 1 time
6th – 3 times
7th – 5 times
8th – 7 times
9th – 8 times
10th – 3 times
11th – 1 time
You’ll notice that 60% of these teams made the playoffs. If you really think this team is good for a goal differential of +1, why are you somewhat confident that they’ll miss? Do you just figure that +1 is on the high side of reasonable?
Scott: As mentioned, I haven’t really looked that closely at the west, but the conference seems very strong in historic terms. I usually figure out the NW and go from there. VAN is the class of the group, and I think COL has an edge too. MIN is going to have better health and have added, EDM should be better and for me CAL has a chance to be last in the division.
So, that’s 3rd or 4th in the NW. I might pick LAK, SJS, PHX, STL, NAS, CHI, VAN, COL as my playoff teams, plus we have DAL and MIN and I’ve no doubt forgotten someone.
Strong conference.
Detroit. Jesus.
Lowetide,
I’ll acknowledge first off that you haven’t gone through where each team will finish, but I don’t see how that matters a whole lot unless you expect to have (at least) eight teams well clear of a +1 goal differential. If you don’t, then +1 should be enough to get them a good shot at the playoffs, I’d think. Probably a 50/50 shot or better.
I do completely agree with your assessment of the Western Conference being strong. But that’s why I’d expect the Oilers to have a substantially lower goal differential than +1.
Scott: Last season’s west boasted 8 teams clear of +1, no? Is that correct? I
Lowetide,
Yeah, worst goal differential among playoff teams in the West was +10 (Chicago). +1 would have been 9th. Best among the non-playoff teams was Dallas -11.
The East was weird – only 6 of 15 teams were +. All those 6 made the playoffs, plus Fla (3rd seed, 6th in pts) and Wsh (7th). Wsh was 7th in goal differential at -8, Fla 11th at -24. Mtl finished 15th (and 28th in the league) with the 9th best goal differential in the east. (-14).
Lowetide,
You are correct that there were eight teams better than +1 a year ago in the West. There’s certainly no guarantee that +1 will good enough to make the top eight (or miss but make the playoffs) next year either. But setting the broad range of expectations at 9th through 12th with a goal differential of +1 is underselling how good the goal differential is. Finishing 7th or 8th is a far more likely outcome than 11th or 12th in that scenario.
Habs extend Pacioretty for long-term. By the standards of the current/recently-expired CBA, that’s a hell of a deal.
This post is either deep deep subtle sarcasm or the work of somebody who has not slept in days.
@Bookje… Thanks – thought I was alone in thinking : either these posts are so sarcastic that they’re awesome, or super earnest, and therefore kinda less awesome.
I did set the range 9th or 10th. Perhaps it will end up being 8th or 9th, but I’m not there yet. Honestly, I’m not sure everyone is done. Edmonton is done of course, but they shoudn’t be.
“Boooo! Get your butt in gear you dirty Yak!”
Hahahaha..