RE 12-13: THEO PECKHAM

The Edmonton Oilers have exactly one boatload of prospects coming. Peckham’s progress has not been in a straight line and there are more options on the way. How much time is left for Theo Peckham to establish himself as an NHL player in Edmonton?

RE 12-13 55, 1-5-6

  1. What’s the best thing about him? Peckham is tough, fearless and a little off plumb (and I mean that in a good way). He’s learning the position and has shown the ability to play effectively when paired with a strong (Gilbert) defender.
  2. What’s the worst thing about him? Penalties, positioning. Peckham took too many pims and man he had a tough season in the decision making department.
  3. Was he good as a rookie? He had lots of chaos but there was progress in year one. In last year’s RE I wrote “Peckham played tougher minutes than one would think for a player of his experience. He did it while playing with Tom Gilbert 48% of the time at evens, so despite the teammate number above he wasn’t alone. He did have the toughest zone start, so for Peckham to emerge with his CorsiRel at -6.6 and a -5 overall (and allowing a major dollop for luck) that’s still a solid year. This was his first full NHL season.”
  4. He did better this year, Even +/- on a -26 team. That’s actually the beauty of all of these advanced stats–we can see what really happened. In year one Theo played tougher minutes but had Tommy Gilbert as a life line, but this past season was a struggle despite facing the soft parade.
  5. So they should dump him? No, because if we’ve learned anything it is that suffering through growing pains and then watching a defenseman flourish elsewhere is a tough thing to endure. Oilers have invested in Theo Peckham, let’s see how this thing turns out.
  6. You’ve got him as the 7D, not exactly a ringing endorsement. First of all, 7D on the Oilers depth chart in summer probably means you’re playing top 4D by Christmas. That is just how things work out. Second, we’ve already talked about the fact that these young men don’t develop in a straight line. Peckham may turn a corner here soon.
  7. What can they count on him for? Peckham was a big part of the PK rotation and that was an area of improvement for the team. That alone gives him value, although I don’t really know if these things sustain from season to season.
  8. If they put him on waivers he’d go right through. No. Defensemen are scarce and young, tough ones who have been fairly healthy in their first 150 NHL games have value. They just do. It’s a tough position.
  9. Oh you always say that. They’re all tough. Playing NHL defense in the modern era–where clutching and grabbing are 2 minutes every time–mean you have to use positioning and that’s a tough thing to do at any level. Impossible in the NHL.
  10. You always liked Peckham. Early on you couldn’t find a discouraging word about him on the internet. Coachable, tough, eager, a lot of try.
  11. He’ll always be a 5-6. Peckham has shown an ability to PK and if he can be successful at evens on the third pairing he’ll have value.
  12. But there are so many coming up. Sure, but Peckham has the advantage of already being here and part of the team. Edmonton will be offloading defenders here in the next couple of years but there should be room for a tough guy like Peckham if he can play a regular shift and be effective.
  13. Teubert can replace him tomorrow. No, he can’t. We saw Teubert at the NHL level last year and there’s still some distance.
  14. What about Bigos? He’s a guy to watch, but it is likely he’ll spend a season in OKC so that’s 2 years from now. Peckham could be well established by then.
  15. How many guys in the system can do what Peckham does? Play defense and fill the enforcer/physical role? Teubert and Plante at the AHL level, and among the prospects below only Bigos is clearly that kind of player.
  16. Someone will pass him and he’ll be dealt. Certainly possible. However, Peckham has a massive advantage over Teubert, Plante and Bigos. He’s here, he’s signed, he’s part of the team and he has 156 games of NHL experience.

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31 Responses to "RE 12-13: THEO PECKHAM"

  1. russ99 says:

    I think Peckham falls in that category of Oilers players that have a pretty good first full season, then fall off the second.

    Often, these guys are slammed by the fans and sent out of town, but we should stick with Theo and see what he can give us.

    Maybe a guy like Sutton or Whitney can mentor Peckham and help him with positioning and decision making. His one-on-one defense, board play and physical play are NHL third-pairing caliber, but he needs to take the next step with his mental game and make less mistakes. If he does, we could have another Matt Greene, who we also traded too soon.

  2. vishcosity says:

    Kinda digging the banner ads. Today I got the Kroeger family of stores, a guy’s gotta shop there you’d think, and yesterday I got hockey monkey which has a discount store in Irvine. I checked the clearance rack and found my $350 skates for $129. I’m trying to get street hockey started here in Normal Heights, a trip through the wooden stick isle there may be good value.

    Can’t teach big, can’t teach tough. Seems Theo has both.

  3. justDOit says:

    If Chorney was snapped up on waivers, I would have to think that TP won’t make it through either. But from the few details he gave up in a recent interview, it sounds like Theodore isn’t doing himself any favors in the conditioning department. If Ray Whitney only takes 10 days off from working out (after playing playoff games), Peckham doesn’t deserve to indulge in hamburgers for half the summer.

  4. jfry says:

    anyone with a feed for the yakupov game (ooops, i mean the canada russia game right now)? my usual suspects have come up dry

  5. rickithebear says:

    “when paired with a strong (Gilbert) defender.”

    LT: I love your humor!

  6. Moosemess says:

    rickithebear:
    “when paired with a strong (Gilbert) defender.”

    LT: I love your humor!

    Never underestimate the power of the mullet!

  7. Gret99zky says:

    Nailed it!

  8. Cactus says:

    LT, do we have any good WOWY numbers for Peckham’s 2010-11 season? I ask, because unless his numbers without Gilbert were solid, then maybe there’s less the Theo than his rookie season suggests. Maybe he’s really had 2 bad years but Gilbert was able to cover up much of the flaws in year 1.

  9. In the Grease says:

    @Justdoit

    Actually the interview I think you’re referring to – I believe it was with Gregor – was all about how Peckham was really focused on conditioning this summer, and that he was bummed he had to give up the hamburgers. He also talked about checking in with his trainer, with regards to his nutrition,keeping track of what he was eating, and being honest about the fact that he must follow a strict diet.

    So basically the opposite of what you extrapolated… he acknowledged he had a tough season, and is apparently going to great lengths to be in better shape, and be ready to turn things around this fall.

    More power to him, if he can be a solid 3rd pairing option, avoid dumb penalities, and bring that toughness / nastiness and willingness to drop the gloves, Peckham could end up being a very valuable piece of the Oilers’ D in 12-13.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    LT, do we have any good WOWY numbers for Peckham’s 2010-11 season? I ask, because unless his numbers without Gilbert were solid, then maybe there’s less the Theo than his rookie season suggests. Maybe he’s really had 2 bad years but Gilbert was able to cover up much of the flaws in year 1.

    Copper N Blue will have them
    Probably early last summer.
    iIt may be hard to compare though, i suspect Peckham had easier match-ups and so forth when not paired with the strong Gilbert.

  11. Cactus says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Yeah I took a look and came up with some interesting stuff on scoring chances:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/5/18/2177698/theo-peckham-scoring-chances-2010-2011

    Not the shot data I was hoping for, but even with scoring chance data two things are clear:

    1) He simply wasn’t very good two years ago (though neither were a lot of Oilers).
    2) He was clearly worse without Gilbert.

    I’d really like to know the shot data WOWY now. I question whether there’s really a player to save here.

  12. Mr DeBakey says:

    Shots/60 plus/minus for 11/12:

    JEFFPETRY - 0.70
    TOMGILBERT - -1.30
    LADISLAVSMID - -2.90
    JAMESVANDERMEER - -3.00
    KURTISFOSTER - -3.40
    THEOPECKHAM - -6.20
    JASONSTRUDWICK - -7.00
    RYANWHITNEY - -9.20

    Gilbert & Peckham had the hardest match-ups
    Petry 5th hardest in 35 games
    The Corsi +/- list is very similar.

  13. Jordan says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Either those numbers are from 10/11, or I’ve walked into an alternate reality in which the Oilers kept the same defenders they had in 10/11 for 11/12.

    If I am in the alternate timeline, there is only one question that I need answered:

    Who beat the Vancouver Canucks in the Playoffs this year?

  14. Mr DeBakey says:

    Who beat the Vancouver Canucks in the Playoffs this year?

    The Golden Seals.
    The Hickes shot the lights out.

    ++

    Sorry about the typo
    Dagnabbit

  15. hunter1909 says:

    Good teams don’t flush prospects for nothing; and if nothing else, Peckham is as tough as they come. One of the eastern teams Oilers played during his rookie season spent the entire night targeting him, which blew me away – because he must have taken a dozen major hits from 7-8 different players.

    Renney screwed up a few players last season, which is the reason he wasn’t given another contract. Peckham, like Gagner and MPS all need at least another season for the management to evaluate them.

  16. DSF says:

    Bettman declares lockout if no agreement by September 15th.

  17. LoDog says:

    DSF:
    Bettman declares lockout if no agreement by September 15th.

    Which should surprise no one.

    Peckham might not be able to resist the hamburgers if there is a work stoppage. Curse you delicious lock out hamburgers!

  18. Cactus says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Yeah, those numbers are consistent with the basic Corsi scores. Unfortunately, they still don’t address the potential team effects of having Gilbert as a partner most of the time. As I said in my original post, I’m curious whether things are even worse for Peckham than his overall results and if so, by how much.

    Where’s Woodguy? He’s usually great with this stuff. If I type “I NEED LUMBER” in all caps, will he appear?

  19. art vandelay says:

    Happy Anniversary, Oilers fans.

  20. jp says:

    Cactus:
    Mr DeBakey,

    Yeah I took a look and came up with some interesting stuff on scoring chances:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/5/18/2177698/theo-peckham-scoring-chances-2010-2011

    Not the shot data I was hoping for, but even with scoring chance data two things are clear:

    1) He simply wasn’t very good two years ago (though neither were a lot of Oilers).
    2) He was clearly worse without Gilbert.

    I’d really like to know the shot data WOWY now.I question whether there’s really a player to save here.

    I agreed/agree with everything LT said above. Those linked numbers are downright disturbing though…

    Re: whether Gilbert was saving him:
    5X5 Corsi WOWY (every D Peckham played more than 50 min with)

    2011-12
    Player TOI/w CF%Together Peckham apart Teammate apart
    Potter 201 .433 .462 .494
    Petry 181 .507 .438 .489
    Teubert 109 .442 .457 .483
    Sutton 98 .500 .447 .494
    Smid 68 .400 .460 .481

    2010-11
    Player TOI/w CF%Together Peckham apart Teammate apart
    Gilbert 532 .463 .422 .495
    Vandermeer 215 .434 .444 .490
    Foster 104 .469 .439 .461
    Strucwick 82 .464 .440 .400
    Smid 52 .381 .445 .476
    Whitney 51 .310 .448 .453

    Sure looks like Gilbert helped, and Petry last year too. Not the most encouraging, but I still have some hope that Peckham might be able to play solid 3rd pairing D. I very much doubt he’d clear waivers too, if it came to that.

    PS – Did Ryan Whitney get BADLY outchanced in the best half season of his career?? (we’re talking Peckham territory here). He was outscoring opponents in 10-11, but his PDO was 1.065. Actually, his PDO is usually quite high – worst is a .998 in 11-12. Hmmm. Wonder what Ricki will think of this…

  21. Ducey says:

    art vandelay:
    Happy Anniversary, Oilers fans.

    Easily your most positive post Art! Those new drugs are working nicely!

  22. Woodguy says:

    Cactus,

    JP brought the goods.

    Here’s the site:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

    Play around on the site, its a good one.

  23. Woodguy says:

    art vandelay:
    Happy Anniversary, Oilers fans.

    Hi Art!

    Suprised you took the time away from greasing the steps at the seniors home and pulling the fire alarm to remind us of the Gretzky trade.

  24. Cactus says:

    jp,

    Thanks for that JP, good data. Those Peckham-Foster numbers from 2010-11 are wacky.

    In seriousness, it seems from that WOWY data, and the earlier scoring chance work, Peckham seems to outperform Strudwick and that’s about it. He’s getting old for a “prospeect”, so expecting serious improvement at this stage may be too hopeful.

    I’m not trying to be overly pessimistic – I’d love to see him succeed as an Oiler. I just don’t want to waste some at-bats on an improving team on a guy who isn’t going to be a useful player in the next few years.

  25. Cactus says:

    Woodguy:
    Cactus,

    JP brought the goods.

    Here’s the site:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

    Play around on the site, its a good one.

    Many thanks sir. Can I say that the lumber exortation worked then?

  26. voxwah says:

    art vandelay,

    Everyday is an anniversary of the Canucks not winning the cup.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Cactus: Many thanks sir.Can I say that the lumber exortation worked then?

    Yes.

    “Shiver me Timbers”

    And

    “Deliver my Lumber”

    When spoken with a pirate accent will also work.

  28. Cactus says:

    Woodguy: Yes.

    “Shiver me Timbers”

    And

    “Deliver my Lumber”

    When spoken with a pirate accent will also work.

    Wonderful stuff, I needed that laugh!

  29. Lowetide says:

    Yeah, the WOWY’s looked like Gilbert was helping for sure. The Smid-Petry wowy’s are fun too btw, looks like that site is down currently but it’s a fun read and very informative. My thanks to WG for introducing it.

  30. Truth says:

    I have a feeling Peckham gets flushed. I’m not much of a believer of word of mouth and I don’t pretend to know more than the average fan in most cases, but my guess would be his name is thrown in right after Omark’s when the Oilers are looking for trade fillers. Who’s taking wagers?

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