RE 12-13: YANN DANIS

Although he is not projected to begin the season with the Edmonton Oilers, Yann Danis could be a big part of the team by season’s end. With NK wildly inconsistent, surely Danis is the man to step into the breach.

RE 12-13: 17, 2.88 .906

  1. Who is going to break this to Tambellini? I imagine he’ll figure it out, grab a fiddle and life will go on.
  2. So you think he’ll be the backup then? I believe he has a tremendous opportunity. A big chance to play again in the NHL.
  3. When will the opportunity come? I’d say he should be ready for a call any time. Starting now.
  4. Is he really any better than Khabibulin? Oh yeah, NK was a spent force after the hot streak. We’ll talk about it more during his RE.
  5. Can Danis have a career if he performs well? He’s 31. Goalies are like knuckleball pitchers–don’t count them out until they’re done and even then keep them in mind.
  6. Is he going in a good direction? He won the AHL goalie of the year award and that’s a helluva league. He had a GAA of just over 2.00, a SP of .924 and did it on a team without a long history of producing strong minor league clubs.
  7. Why did he sign a 2-way deal with Edmonton? I suspect he felt–rightly–that there is an enormous opportunity to move up the Edmonton depth chart.
  8. He wasn’t a smashing success in the KHL. Well, the team he played for was outscored by 61 goals in a 54 game schedule. That’s a crappy team.
  9. How many good to very good seasons has he had in a row? I think the last four seasons have been strong. It’s certainly earned him a real NHL shot.
  10. And you think he’ll get it? Is Nikolai Khabulin on the Oiler roster?
  11. Are your projections league average? No. They are below.
  12. Is this ‘replacement level’ goaltending? I define replacement level as ‘lower tier’ NHL goaltending. .906 is in that range.
  13. Martin Brodeur is in that range. Yes. Let’s move on.
  14. Will one of the kids play in the NHL this season? Olivier Roy or Tyler Bunz? I’m not projecting it, but will say that both should get extended periods  of play in the AHL this season.
  15. Should Tambellini add a goalie? Sure, that would be a fine idea.
  16. Should he trade for Bernier? I’d prefer a veteran goalie who could play 30 games effectively.
  17. But you’re fine with Danis? I’m confident Danis will be a clear upgrade on Khabibulin.
  18. NK will make you look silly if he has another fast start? I’m hoping he does just that thing.

 

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33 Responses to "RE 12-13: YANN DANIS"

  1. Max Powers says:

    I honestly think Danis gets less of a chance than you do, LT. I personally believe NK will subscribe to his usual career trend and have an outstanding year on a contract year. Typically they are his highest calibre and healthiest seasons. Watching him at the beginning if last year leads me to believe he still has it in him so the biggest question is health IMO.

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    Bold.

  3. Woodguy says:

    Maybe Nik’s wonky back will act up.

    Maybe if Nik starts really slow he will be told that his wonky back is acting up.

    Either way I hope you are right.

  4. dessert1111 says:

    I agree with you LT but I’m worried that management will stick with Khabby regardless, unless by mid-season he hasn’t had a single good game. I think Khabby is washed up but if he played only 20 games a year he might do okay, at least good enough for the Oilers to keep him around to finish his contract. I see the keeping of Danis, even at a more expensive rate, as having a fourfold purpose: 1) ensure OKC has a quality starter to build on their season last year; 2) ensure there is an NHL-ready call-up in case of injuries; 3) ensure there is a mentor for Roy/Bunz in the AHL; and 4) after next season, when Khabby’s contract is up, have someone in the system who may be able to step up and play as an NHL backup if there isn’t a good market for goalies out there. I think this last point is one that people don’t talk about much and I may be out to lunch but if Danis posts another solid year and have a few NHL games when someone is hurt and looks good, maybe he gets signed as the Oilers backup in 13-14, allowing Roy/Bunz to have another year or two of seasoning. If they truly believe that Bunz or Roy can be their goaltender of the future, Danis might serve as a cheap stop-gap that they don’t have to give anyone up for or spend too much on. Hell if Dubnyk plays well by the time the younger goalies are ready and if they outplay him ala Schneider/Luongo, maybe in 3 years the Oilers get a nice return for Dubnyk, a better starting goalie, a quality back up in Danis, all without spending a thing. But I am choosing to be very optimistic today and a whole lot of things would have to break perfectly for that to happen.

  5. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Apologies for going off topic–in the DD thread, DSF posted a list of shot differential vs final position. I conducted a quick and dirty analysis of the data and they actually show a statistically significant correlation.

    This correlation has an r-square of .326, basically, it explains 32.6% of the variance (1.0 would explain all variance). As far as measures go, that’s not too bad. The higher the shot differential the higher the rank.

    Here is a link to the analysis.
    http://prntscr.com/dps3r

    (also, apologies for posting this in both the DD and YD threads)

  6. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    oops, that should read “the higher the shot differential in the positive, the higher the rank” or something to that effect.

  7. Dipstick says:

    If Khabby truly is on a downward spiral in his ability, I would not be surprised to see him playing much of the season as a very expensive minor league back up. If Danis, Roy and Bunz all outperform him, could he end up in Stockton?

  8. Jesse says:

    If the Oilers do pick up a more capable backup then that means Khabibulin goes to the minors to tandem with Danis, decreasing the likelihood of Bunz or Roy getting much time in the AHL in 12-13. Unless one of those goalies leaves town which doesn’t seem terribly likely. So taking all of this into account, I can’t see the Oilers getting another goalie to backup Dubnyk.

  9. Bar_Qu says:

    Dipstick:
    If Khabby truly is on a downward spiral in his ability, I would not be surprised to see him playing much of the season as a very expensive minor league back up.If Danis, Roy and Bunz all outperform him, could he end up in Stockton?

    I think given the option, he would LTIR himself instead of riding buses in the ECHL or even the AHL.

    If LT’s prediction is right, (the heavens tremble at the thought) then NK may be done playing professional hockey by a month or two into the season. OTOH, we can all hope he bounces back this season in a desperate ploy to get another contract. Win-win.

  10. Woodguy says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons,

    Thanks for that.

    Also, DSF posted the total shots, which includes special teams.

    When using shot differential to analyze teams, its best done 5v5 only as both teams are in equal states.

  11. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Woodguy,

    Agreed, a finer analysis would account for the different circumstances and I would expect to see a closer correlation.

    The general position, though, that shot differential is related to success, i think is a fair and intuitive one.

  12. jp says:

    I think Khabi plays more games this year than Danis. I’m not saying that’s a good thing, but I think that’s what will happen. I sure wouldn’t bet against Danis being the backup by the end of the season, but I think Khabi sticks around long enough to get at least a few more games.

    5. Can Danis have a career if he performs well? He’s 31. Goalies are like knuckleball pitchers–don’t count them out until they’re done and even then keep them in mind.

    This doesn’t apply to Khabi? :)

    18. NK will make you look silly if he has another fast start? I’m hoping he does just that thing.

    Just hope they don’t make him the starter again if he has a hot start. I’m a little worried about that based on the way last season played out. I’m pretty sure Kruger’s smarter than that, but who knows.

    dessert1111,

    Like the idea of potentially keeping Danis around as backup for 13-14. Cheap, and good chance he’d be up to the task (assuming Dubnyk performs like a clear #1 this year).

  13. Ducey says:

    Well, LT, this is going to be the one time in your life you will be wrong.

    If DD gets 55 games as you predicted in your RE for him, that leaves 27 games (plus a few times when the backup comes in) for everyone else. Danis is going to start the year in OKC and likely won’t see Edmonton until the trade deadline at the earliest.

    Whether you like it or not, Bulin is going to get at least 15 games to show what he has (or doesn’t have). 15+ mostly good yrs in the league, and a $3.5 M one way contract will do that for you. There are not many GM’s in the league that would farm out their expensive goalie on a 1 way when 1) he will make a perfectly adequate backup and 2) you never know with goalies – Bulin may be done, but maybe not.

    Is it possible Danis gets 17 games? Sure, but as you emphasized with Ebs (when you predicted he would fall into a sinkhole) these are reasonable expectations.

    17 games for Danis isn’t reasonable. 8 might be.

  14. Moosemess says:

    Some interesting comments on the goaltenders.

    Just wanted to followup on one poster who raised the point in the DD thread that Dubie should potentially be more aggressive mentally and/or positionally (ala Tim Thomas).

    First, I’m not sure most goalies should be modelling their game after Thomas. TT plays to his strengths. He has superhuman reflexes and excellent lateral movement. This allows him to be very aggressive in his position on angles. Essentially, he can overcommit to the first shot, safe in the knowledge that if a quick pass or rebound puts him badly out of his position, he’s got the quickness to recover. Reflex wise, Thomas is actually a bit of a freak/beast, and most goalies will not be as successful with this style as Thomas has been.

    Dubie is more like Luongo. His massive frame takes away a lot of net but it comes at the expense of lateral movement speed. Thus, Dubie’s better off when he stays deeper in his net and plays a less aggressive angle to the shooter, leaving him the option to recover less space when play across the goalmouth forces him to reestablish position.

    I think the key on whether DD can actually progress to upper tier starter status is his progression on reading the play. Most pro athletes talk about a critical momement in their development (i.e. when everything seems to ‘slow’ down). If we’re lucky, that started to happen for Dubnyk in the 2nd half of last season.

    When DD is on his game (i.e. making good reads), he is very square to the shooter on the first shot and is thus able to exercise stronger rebound control. When he is struggling with his reads, he tends to be arriving at the correct angle to the shooter a fraction of a second too late. Not only does this afford the shooter a better look, it often results in the greasy rebound because DD is not in a position for optimal reaction, balance and rebound control.

    The funny thing about goalies is most of the legendary ones were/are hyper competitive and aggressive (Sawchuk, Roy, Brodeur, Hasek, Belfour, Thomas) and they had the reflexes to play that style. A better model for Dubyk to emulate IMO is to become a goaltender like Dryden, Giguere or Osgood who played a less aggressive style that put their size advantage to best use. If I was DD’s coach, he’d be watching a lot of tape of Giguere during the Duck’s cinderella run in 2007. JS was absolutely in the zone at that time when it came to making the right read and taking away the net. One of the funniest aspects of the playoffs that year was hearing all the Ducks’ opponents complain that they literally had nothing to shoot at, with the bellyaching about goalie equipment reaching its apex as a result. A big goalie in the right position can really get in the head of a shooter.

  15. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons,

    Thanks for that.

    Also, DSF posted the total shots, which includes special teams.

    When using shot differential to analyze teams, its best done 5v5 only as both teams are in equal states.

    That, of course, would unfairly penalize the teams that have specifically built a strong PP from reaching their true value.

    Since PP’s are indeed a part of the game, removing those results skews the picture even further.

  16. DSF says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    Woodguy,

    Agreed, a finer analysis would account for the different circumstances and I would expect to see a closer correlation.

    The general position, though, that shot differential is related to success, i think is a fair and intuitive one.

    I have no argument against the notion that outshooting your opponent in very general terms is a good idea.

    What I have an issue with is trying to use it as a substitute for possession and as predictive of future success when it doesn’t account for so many other variables.

    Here’s an interesting chart. Take a close look at what’s going on with Pittsburgh, Nashville, Vancouver, Anaheim and Detroit, among others.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20122ALLSAAAll&sort=winsOutshootOpponent&viewName=outshootingOutshotby

  17. Moosemess says:

    In regards to earlier post, meant Ducks’ Cinderella run of 03, not 07.

  18. commonfan14 says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons: The general position, though, that shot differential is related to success, i think is a fair and intuitive one.

    I learned this based on a between-periods interview I once saw with a player from the trailing team saying that the key to coming back in the game would be to “get more pucks to the net.”

    I was wracking my brain trying to remember which interview that was, and then I remembered that it was all of them.

  19. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    commonfan14,

    My analysis tells me that playing the full sixty minutes is also related to success.

  20. Ducey says:

    DSF,

    An interesting chart. 20 teams had a higher winning percentage when being outshot than when they were outshooting. On the other hand the top 12 teams in outshooting were the best teams in the league (COL excepted). This latter stat would point to a strong correlation between outshooting and winning.

    I would be guessing by suggesting that the best teams likely got outshot when they were winning by a couple of goals and were rope-a-doping it. If true, its still better to be outshooting. Common sense (if thats still allowed) would tell you this too.

    Still if you are the guy who gets thrown on the ice more than your fair share when your team does not have momentum, your Corsi is going to look brutal, perhaps unjustifiably so. Similarly, if you are on the ice when your team has the momentum but down by 3 goals in the 3rd period, your Corsi is going to look better than perhaps is fair. Rel Corsi might even out some of this but not all of it.

    Still DSF, if outshooting = winning, doesn’t it make sense that outshooters are better than those who get outshot?

    As for whether Corsi = possession, I don’t care. If you have the puck 80% of the time and don’t shoot, you are not achieving much.

  21. Scott Reynolds says:

    DSF,

    When you talk about possession, are you talking about the team in control of the puck or are you talking about zone time? When Vic has talked about a correlation between Corsi and possession, he’s actually talking about a correlation between Corsi and puck position, i.e., zone time:

    “Zone time and possession are terms that are often used interchangeably by hockey coaches, and I think we all realize why; having a bit more than your share of touches in the neutral ice pachinko game doesn’t represent much of an advantage. But having meaningful possession moving forward, and in the offensive zone, that often ends well for you. When Mike Babcock says “Possession is everything.” we know that it’s hyperbole, and we know that he’s not talking about one of his defencemen standing behind his own net with the puck.”

    The NHL actually tracked zone time and made it publicly available once upon a time, which enabled him to check on the correlation between that and Corsi over an entire season. That came out to 0.90, which is very strong indeed (do you disagree?), and one of the major reasons that, at the team level, shot analysis continues to be used extensively as a stand-in for possession/zone time and in predictive analysis. I don’t think anyone is saying that it’s perfectly predictive though. Pretty well everyone acknowledges that hot/cold shooting and hot/cold goaltending are incredibly important; it’s just that they’re highly variable.

  22. commonfan14 says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons,

    Not to mention getting traffic in front and simplifying the power play.

  23. Kris11 says:

    Scott jusst said everything worth saying on this subject,

  24. edwards_daddy says:

    Love that picture LT.
    Forward (Berglund???) standing in the crease, looking pretty relaxed, with no other Oilers in the frame except poor Danis, Danis.

  25. Kris11 says:

    Rel Corsi, seen in the light of

    a.) Zone starts
    b.) Quality of comp. (measured roughly)
    c) Sample size

    Is an excellent, reliable predictor of future performance. (No predictor will be perfect. If it were a perfect it wouldn’t be a reliable prediction but a certain proof. And there are no proofs of what will happen in the future in any area.)

    ES Goals and ES plus minus can be predictive, too. But there are fairly few even strength scoring events per game, especially compared to shots, so you need a much larger sample size for goals at even strength to be predictive, And goals still have to be relativized to

    a.) Sh% (Career vs. current) and PDO
    b.) Zone Starts
    c.) Qual Comp and Qual Team
    d.) TOI

  26. OilClog says:

    A canadian tire cut out is better then NK as this point and has been since the contract was signed. Does Nik have incriminating photos of Steve? How is this guy still around, maybe Ralph can cure this too.

  27. Ducey says:

    Kris11: Rel Corsi, seen in the light of
    a.) Zone starts
    b.) Quality of comp. (measured roughly)
    c) Sample size
    Is an excellent, reliable predictor of future performance. (No predictor will be perfect. If it were a perfect it wouldn’t be a reliable prediction but a certain proof. And there are no proofs of what will happen in the future in any area.)

    I don’t know about that. Stats will tell you how someone did last year. Figuring out how they will do next year is a different matter.

  28. commonfan14 says:

    So Rishaug says the Oil have resume preliminary talks with Hall’s camp on an extension.

    It was one thing when they could have been waiting for the new CBA to come in before getting something done so that they know exactly what kind of system they’ll be dealing with, but now I’m pretty unimpressed with the timing.

    After a few comparables popped up to kind of screw them over on Dubnyk, I thought maybe they’d want to get out ahead of things with Hall. Instead they let Carolina give Skinner a big deal first and now they’ll end up paying more than they might have if they’d gotten something done while Tavares was the best comp.

    If they’re not going to wait for the new CBA, I just hope they get something done before Boston signs Seguin to something even bigger than Skinner’s deal…

  29. vishcosity says:

    Ducey: I don’t know about that.Stats will tell you how someone did last year.Figuring out how they will do next year is a different matter.

    Isn’t that the whole point? Trying to predict future performance based on previous results?

    Figuring out what other data we need to make better correlations to me seems the real key to this whole discussion. Predicting fair contracts for Jeff Petry and Taylor Hall could be a bunch easier if we actually knew the quality of the shots they have taken (and allowed).

  30. Woodguy says:

    DSF: That, of course, would unfairly penalize the teams that have specifically built a strong PP from reaching their true value.

    Since PP’s are indeed a part of the game, removing those results skews the picture even further.

    Corsi is in regards to 5v5 possesion.

    It makes total sense that you want to include special teams shots when calculating 5v5 possesion.

    Lordy.

    Just stop.

  31. Woodguy says:

    DSF: I have no argument against the notion that outshooting your opponent in very general terms is a good idea.

    What I have an issue with is trying to use it as a substitute for possession and as predictive of future success when it doesn’t account for so many other variables.

    Here’s an interesting chart. Take a close look at what’s going on with Pittsburgh, Nashville, Vancouver, Anaheim and Detroit, among others.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20122ALLSAAAll&sort=winsOutshootOpponent&viewName=outshootingOutshotby

    This is called “score effects”.

    The team that is leading tends to get outshot.

    That’s why most of what I post is “5v5 close” which accounts for out shooting when the game state is tied or a team is only up by one.

    Here’s some good reading:

    http://mobile.broadstreethockey.com/2012/1/23/2722089/score-adjusted-fenwick

    http://mobile.arcticicehockey.com/2011/3/25/2061334/frequently-asked-questions-12-score-effects

    I’m on my phone so I’d probably eliminate the “mobile” part of the url.

    Make sure to read the links inside both articles, provides good back ground info.

    Google “score effects hockey”, lots of good stuff out there.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: Corsi is in regards to 5v5 possesion.

    It makes total sense that you want to include special teams shots when calculating 5v5 possesion.

    Lordy.

    Just stop.

    DSF,

    This comment was too harsh.

    I assumed you knew what I and others are refering to when we write stuff, but I think a big part of the issue is just language.

    I apologize.

    Yes, special teams affect outcomes greatly, but when studying outshooting rates, you only look at 5v5, and lately people are focusing on the “close” game state as it removes the “score effects” from the data.

    Special team time is not distributed equally so it can skew the data.

  33. melancholyculkin says:

    vishcosity,

    There’s been plenty of work done on shot quality.

    warning: PDF’s and some pretty in depth math: http://hockeyanalytics.com/shot-quality/

    At the team level at least, shot quality has been deemed not as significant as overall shot volume, hence the focus on the latter.

    http://vhockey.blogspot.ca/2009/07/shot-quality-fantasy.html

    http://vhockey.blogspot.ca/2010/05/forest-v-trees.html

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