HOW MANY NUGGETS FOR THE GOLDEN NUGE IN OKC?

The Oklahoma City Barons Oilers are going to be loaded this winter. How many points can we expect from the Nuge?

During the last lockout, the impact kids were Jason Spezza (117 points) and Mike Cammalleri (109 points) and believe me the AHL 04-05 was loaded (Vanek, Parise, Eric Staal) with tremendous young talent. So, if there were two kids over 100 points last time, how many will there be this time? Can the Nuge post 100 points? Will Eberle do it too?

NHLE from Gabriel Desjardins suggests the average AHL player will take 44% of his offense with him to the NHL. If we use that number to work backwards and run RNH’s rookie NHL season through the NHLE we get this:

  • (Age 18) 62, 41-77-118

Spezza had a helluva support group, with Denis Hamel, Antoine Vermette, Brandon Bochenski, Chris Kelly and Josh Langfield all ripping it up (the Binghampton Senators top 6F scored 189 goals that season). The Nuge might have Jordan Eberle on the team, and the Barons will also have Hartikainen, Paajarvi, Josh Green and Mark Arcobello in the top 6, and Phil Cornet led OKC with 24 goals a year ago.

I’ll guess Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scores above a point per game but does not deliver at the same level as Spezza in the last lockout. Strength of team and Spezza’s age (he was 21) would be the main items for me.

What then would be a good estimate? I’ll say 70, 28-57-85 1.21/pts per game.

What’s your estimate?

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28 Responses to "HOW MANY NUGGETS FOR THE GOLDEN NUGE IN OKC?"

  1. gogliano says:

    Lockout related:

    I was thinking today how having the kids start their deals a year later is great, etc., so maybe a lost year won’t be so bad.

    Then I realized Khabibulin is on the last year of his contract.

    - – -

    I think RNH cracks 100 points if some headhunter doesn’t take him out.

  2. Lowetide says:

    I think they all slide, as in Khabibulin is done and the Nuge’s entry level deal will be two seasons instead of three.

  3. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    It will depend entirely on the new CBA. There is no way of knowing at this point what will happen, because these rules are found in the CBA, and there is currently no CBA. There is no particular reason, other than inertia, to believe that ELCs will be three years under the new CBA.

  4. sliderule says:

    Twenty games and thirty points for Nuge.

    I am still the optimist that the NHL will come up with an offer of 50 percent phased in so that there are no cutbacks in existing contracts.Season opens nov15th in Edmonton

  5. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    I hope the development time is used to give RNH and Ebs a taste of the other side of the rink. Lots of DZS would help them more than getting butter soft minutes. That would cut the numbers back a bit but you’d think he still edges a point per game mark with Ebs and Shultz joining him on the PP.

  6. Dalton says:

    I read a detailed article today about how contract years are used up like normal in a lockout, so Khabi wouldn’t be a problem anymore. As if he ever was :(

  7. OilClog says:

    36pts.. 4games.

    Hopefully that’s all the dominance he’ll how to prove before the owners realize how ridiculous this is.

  8. OilClog says:

    36pts.. 4games.

    Hopefully that’s all the dominance he’ll have to prove before the owners realize how ridiculous this is. They’re holding everyone hostage this time around. No reasonable reason they couldn’t continue playing and negotiate under the old CBA.

    If the powers that be decide no more hockey.. Then the Nuge if plays a whole season. 142.. He’s going to tear them to shreds. If Ebs stays, which he’s saying positive things about, then Hall comes back from injury.. Look out.

    I wonder if the Oilers are trying to get Hemsky or anyone playing with Nail overseas… Wouldn’t be a bad idea would it?

  9. RexLibris says:

    I tried to write in my point estimates but the internet ran out of zeros. Sorry.

    I’d guess he might be in the range of his junior ppg pace. Spezza is a heck of a talent, but Nugent-Hopkins plays slightly different style of game, to my eye, and the AHL has changed a bit as well in the meantime. I also believe (homerism alert) that Nugent-Hopkins will develop to become a better player. So somewhere in that junior range seems a reasonable bet, barring injury.

    As for the contract situations, if Nugent-Hopkins’ contract is abbreviated to two years instead of three, while losing a year off of an ELC hurts, it might benefit the team slightly by reducing what his agent could argue for in the second contract. AHL numbers could be gaudy, but they would still be AHL numbers. If it shaves $500K a year off of a six-year-ish contract that might mean the difference between keeping a good second-pairing defenceman like Petry or eventually Klefbom and having to sell them off and replace with an inferior option.

    Just a thought.

  10. jake70 says:

    Doubt this will happen, but maybe when all is said and done, age of free agency is bumped up, even 1 year, and in the big picture in terms of player rights, would offset the lockout year.

    Also, can someone explain why RNH is allowed to play in AHL as an under-20 CHL grad? I must have missed something somewhere.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Jake 70: It’s the NHL! The rules at sundown may not be the same as they were at sunrise.

  12. Giant Squid Overlord says:

    @TSNRyanRishaug: Oilers who play in AHL this season will burn years on their deals. Once healthy T Hall can and likely will be assigned to AHL.

    @TSNRyanRishaug: Seems to be some doubt as to Halls ability to go to AHL after he’s declared healthy. Will keep looking into it.

    If the whole season is cancelled, it appears like a worst case scenario as far as cap management goes. Younguns spend a year of their ELCs while the Horcs and Khabbys don’t burn anything. Looks like there may be some issue for Hall to join the bunch, this may be a blessing 8 years from now if he heads to Europe.

    I like Oilclog’s idea, but lets get Hemmer Yak and Gags all on a line in the KHL together!

  13. Ribs says:

    Well, this is dissapointing. I had read that the contracts would likely get pushed forward. I suppose that was a while ago. Pooey.

    I’ll say 100 points for Nuge. On the button.

  14. edwards_daddy says:

    ‘I like Oilclog’s idea, but lets get Hemmer Yak and Gags all on a line in the KHL together!’

    Hasn’t Ales already signed for Perdubice?

  15. Lowetide says:

    Pooey. Funny word.

  16. LoDog says:

    20 games played, 30 points for the nuge. Eberle with 14 goals 34 points. Extrapolate for a longer lockout. They will destroy that league.

  17. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Last time, anybody from the 2003 draft who made the NHL right out of the box, was eligible to play their 19 y.o. season in the AHL, e.g. M-A Fleury, E. Staal, N. Horton, D. Brown. Particularly interesting case was Patrice Bergeron, who made the NHL from the #45 spot in the second round, played and won in the 2004 World Senior Championships, then got released from Providence Bruins to play and win in the 2005 World Juniors. I believe he’s the only player in history to win golds in that order.

  18. jp says:

    I was wondering about the AHLE. That puts Eberle’s projection at 76-75-93-168. Guess we won’t see that, but he already gone 20-9-14-23 as an 18 and 19 year old… (= projected 76-34-53-87)

    Nuge has definitely got a chance to hit 100, but agree that he’ll likely fall short. He didn’t completely destroy the WHL in his last year either, though he did come on strong in the 2nd half didn’t he (I remember talk that his goal scoring at least took off in the 2nd half of the season).

    I’m thinking 72-31-64-95. OKC is very deep, so he may not get quite the same push as Spezza got. The top 6 on that Binghampton team was sick, but it looks like the 3rd line was a classic 3rd line (that is, it wasn’t scoring much and doesn’t appear that it was getting many offensive opportunities). In OKC we’re talking about at least some of Paajarvi, Cornet, Byers and Lander playing outside the top 6. These guys are deserving of offensive situations/minutes, so Nuge and Eberle likely won’t get ALL of the offensive opportunities.

    It will be a great chance for him to continue to play a key offensive role, but also to work on his Datuyukian defensive game against men, and may be also get some PK experience. He’s very much still a work in progress, and a year in OKC should definitely still be a positive for his development.

    Also an interesting opportunity to see a little more of Hartikainen and/or Paajarvi with Nuge and Ebs. This year could be a nice audition for a 3rd wheel spot with the young guns.

  19. jp says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Particularly interesting case was Patrice Bergeron, who made the NHL from the #45 spot in the second round, played and won in the 2004 World Senior Championships, then got released from Providence Bruins to play and win in the 2005 World Juniors. I believe he’s the only player in history to win golds in that order.

    I imagine that was the only time. Very interesting.

    Guess Nuge might get another chance to try to make the Jr team this year…

  20. LoDog says:

    OilClog,

    Oh, its reasonable. The pa quite likes 57% and has no reason to negotiate if they can just keep playing under the current agreement. And then whammo, strike time.

  21. Bruce McCurdy says:

    jp: Guess Nuge might get another chance to try to make the Jr team this year…

    Yeah, no reason why RNH wouldn’t be released to play in World Junior a la Bergeron. Well, there would be a reason if they were playing fucking games in the NHL by then. Don’t count on that, though. Last two lockouts saw two of the greatest Teams Canada of all time.

    jp: He didn’t completely destroy the WHL in his last year either, though he did come on strong in the 2nd half didn’t he (I remember talk that his goal scoring at least took off in the 2nd half of the season).

    Yeah, I’ll say. He went from 35 GP, 10-37-47 in the first half to 34 GP, 21-38-59 in the second. His plus/minus mirrored the goal total, +10 in the first half, +20 in the second. (Despite the fact he was reportedly getting all of his points on the powerplay, hrm.)

    Then there’s this, RNH’s NHLE/82 for the past three years:
    16 yo: 23 points
    17 yo: 37 points (+60%)
    18 yo: 69 points (+88%)

    It would seem he’s improving.

  22. RickDeckard says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    He was getting a lot of points on the PP. Here’s the three at EV.

    Yak 42, 19-22-41 0.98
    Hall 57, 22-33-55 0.96
    RNH 69, 20-27-47 0.68

  23. Professor Q says:

    jp,

    Jonathan Toews?

  24. jp says:

    Professor Q:
    jp,

    Jonathan Toews?

    For the World Jr/Sr thing? It looks like Toews won Jr. gold in 06 and 07, then Sr. gold later in 07. He did them both in the same year, but the Jr came first. It’s possible we’re missing someone else who did it, I didn’t exactly do a lot of homework on this. Amazing feat regardless though.

  25. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RickDeckard: He was getting a lot of points on the PP.

    Yeah of course. I was being facetious. Given he “only” scored 47 points at evens, +30 is not too bad, was more the point.

  26. Bruce McCurdy says:

    jp: For the World Jr/Sr thing? It looks like Toews won Jr. gold in 06 and 07, then Sr. gold later in 07. He did them both in the same year, but the Jr came first. It’s possible we’re missing someone else who did it

    Closest I can find in an inexhaustive search is Slava Fetisov, who won World Junior in 1976-78, then won World Senior in 1978, so similar to Toews.

    Pavel Bure won World Senior gold in 1990 and World Junior silver in 1991, so he was this > < close to "doing the Bergeron".

  27. rycoburger says:

    LT – these are my estimates. Maybe more in line with your RE series:

    Nuge: 60-27-54-81
    Ebs: 67-36-48-84

    Of course I’m cheering like hell for RNH=100pts and Eberle=50g!
    …or an end to the lockout. Yeah maybe that one is better ;)

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