OKC RE 12-13

The dream is to play for the Edmonton Oilers. Some of the kids who’ll play in OKC this season are AHLers in name only, and some of them will not play beyond the finest minor league in existence. Here are their RE’s.

The idea of RE is to place a line in the sand that is neither disappointment nor exceptional. A middle ground, something that “sounds about right.” I can tell you this was a frustrating exercise, mostly guesswork and lacking in justification.

OKC RE’S (FORWARDS)

  1. Jordan Eberle 74, 40-46-86
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 70, 28-57-85
  3. Magnus Paajarvi 76, 22-29-51
  4. Josh Green 70, 17-31-48
  5. Teemu Hartikainen 70, 21-22-43
  6. Tyler Pitlick 72, 16-26-42
  7. Mark Arcobello 73, 17-23-40
  8. Dane Byers 60, 10-17-27
  9. Anton Lander 70, 7-16-23
  10. Phil Cornet 52, 12-10-22
  11. Curtis Hamilton 66, 8-11-19
  12. Chris VandeVelde 50, 4-4-8
  13. Antti Tyrvainen 41, 3-3-6
  14. Ryan Martindale 30, 2-3-5
  15. Kristians Pelss 25, 3-2-5
  16. Toni Rajala 25, 3-1-4
  17. Tanner House 20, 0-2-2
  18. Cameron Abney 40, 0-0-0

The forwards increase goals year over year by 30 (213 from 183) and although that’s a giant leap I think it is warranted. All AHL teams will have great players coming to their clubs from the parent organizations, but Eberle and the Nuge–along with a fine supporting cast–should improve the offense smartly.

I have the lines as follows:

  1. Nuge-Hartikainen/Paajarvi-Eberle
  2. Green-Hartikainen/Paajarvi-Pitlick
  3. Lander-Byers-Arcobello
  4. Vandevele-Cornet-Hamilton

The club has some option after the top 2 lines, specifically the veterans Byers and Arcobello (on the 3rd line here). With Todd Nelson’s recent comments about Pitlick getting top 6 minutes, I expect it’ll be tough to get Cornet skill minutes and that is reflected in his numbers.

I also couldn’t find a way to get Pelss, Rajala and House playing time. They may get much more than suggested because of injury, but there’s no way to predict it. There also seems to be no way to get Hamilton into an offensive situation. A 2-way role with plenty of PK would seem to be logical and that is reflected here (and with Lander too).

Houston vs. Oklahoma City Barons 11-2-12

OKC RE’S (THE BLUE)

  1. Justin Schultz 70, 12-30-42
  2. Martin Marincin 62, 3-17-20
  3. Taylor Fedun 55, 4-11-15
  4. Colten Teubert 70, 3-12-15
  5. Dan Ringwald 60, 1-14-15
  6. Alex Plante 55, 1-13-14
  7. Brandon Davidson 60, 1-9-10
  8. Teigan Zahn 48, 0-4-4
  9. Trevor Ludwig 12, 0-1-1

I have the pairings:

  1. Plante-Schultz
  2. Marincin-Teubert
  3. Ringwald-Fedun

It’s an extremely young group and with so many actual rookies (Schultz, Marincin, Fedun, Davidson, Zahn) it is impossible to handicap where they’ll slot. Chances are it’ll be a moving target all year long; as an example, I have Marincin winning a regular job and Davidson waiting for the chance, and it could be just the opposite. Also, Ludwig looks very low at 12 games. He has experience and could jump up the depth chart quickly.

Finally, this roster needs a lefthanded 2-way defenseman.

FINAL NUMBERS GOALS

  • Total goals 11-12: 208
  • Total goals 12-13: 238

Big increase, I think it is warranted. The Barons PP should impact the season heavily and I do believe the top 2 lines will score well. Not an historic rate or anything and this team is well shy of league leading potential (not enough AHL snipers for that) but the Nuge-Eberle and Green line should score well.

GOAL

  1. Yann Danis 44, 2.41 .918
  2. Olivier Roy 16, 2.56 .915
  3. Tyler Bunz 16, 2.69 .913

I think the goalies will have a bit tougher timen than they did one year ago, and we have to assume scoring will be up even if the same quality defense and goaltending returns (other NHL teams will have their quality kids on the farm this season).

Danis gets most of the work and the kids share the load. Roy outperforms Bunz but they both stay on track as prospects.

FINAL NUMBERS GOALS AGAINST

  • GA 11-12: 165
  • GA 12-13: 190

The Barons should be 35+ goals in the black (once you include empty net goals against) and all things considered we are probably safe to assume they’ll be a playoff team again this coming season.

Some veteran help on defense would be a big help.

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9 Responses to "OKC RE 12-13"

  1. russ99 says:

    I think you’re selling Cornet a bit too short. He scored a lot of goals last year.

    I can see that there could be less time for him available in the top 6 this year, but there will be injuries.

    Also, I’m still not sold on Hartikainen, and I wonder if playing him on a line with RNH and Eberle in the AHL will so inflate his numbers that the player we may think we’d get in Edmonton may not be the player we’ll end up with.

  2. jake70 says:

    Didn’t Cornet score all his goals by Christmas? Seemed to have disappeared after that in terms of score sheet. Maybe injuries and playing time played a role..not sure. What is Rajala’s story? – signed the ELC in 2009….played in Brandon, then back to Europe…did not expect to see him part of the organizational picture at this point.

  3. Stocc says:

    So did you work your NHLE magic in reverse for Nuge & Ebs? Did you use the RE numbers you’d come up with for their NHL seasons to help with their AHL projections?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Stocc: Not really, the AHL totals would have been insane doing reverse NHLE. For instance, the Nuge:

    NHL 12-13 RE 72, 22-45-67
    NHLE 12-13 72, 48-100-148

  5. spoiler says:

    I can see how this would be tough, LT. I think actually your numbers might be high, from an RE point of view.

  6. jp says:

    Great job LT. As you note, there are so many unknowns with these predictions. I really can’t disagree with very much here. I’d like to think some will score more than you say, but when you look at the depth up front, there really isn’t enough ice for everyone. It is too bad for some of the lower prospects that they’ll end up in the ECHL, but those guys are long shots to end up in the NHL anyway (and at least in this circumstance, some time in the ECHL isn’t the end of the world).

    OKC certainly is a little thin on D (at least compared to F). Another 2 way D would be a huge boost. Wonder if they might be able to move some of the expendable forwards for a D (say Cornet or Arcobello)?

    I think Cornet is in tough. As mentioned he was very pedestrian after a strong start. I think 3rd or 4th line is what we’ll see, and I wouldn’t be all that shocked if he got passed by some of the depth behind him (some good players there!).

    Rajala is still on his ELC. No idea why he/they decided to bring him over this year (may be the decision was made with optimism that there wouldn’t be a lockout – he’d certainly be more assured of an AHL spot if there weren’t a lockout). There was speculation (here and elsewhere I think) that he was back in Fin for his obligatory military service. If that was the only reason he went back home in the first place, now may be his first opportunity to return to play in NA pro hockey. I really don’t know though, just speculating on what I’ve heard. Kinda weird that OKC will have 2 young, established SM-liiga guys who they likely not be able to find playing time for (Rajala and Tyrvainen). These guys have been good players in a solid league in Europe.

  7. Henry says:

    This is a formidable AHL lineup. Stretched over a year, the expectations are reasonable, but probably conservative for the Nuge and Eberle. Defenses will have a terrible time against what they can do on the rush and will get caught too low and take a lot of penalties. This will be a real opportunity for Paajarvi to develop his offense with good players in a way that wont happen in edmonton with the logjam at wing. He should definitely play with RNH. I’d consider putting Pitlick and Eberle together on another line. It’s the chance to see if Pitlick (as drafted) or Eberle can play center.

    I get to see the A a fair bit, and the Barons come to town in November. As much as I’d like to see them live, I hope these Oilers are not in the AHL then. This shit is depressing.

  8. jake70 says:

    OT – I know some would rather watch paint dry but this Ryder Cup golf is going down to the wire, pretty intense, USA is in the midst of an implosion vs. Europe.

  9. Rebilled says:

    First game on Friday. Any chance the Oilers website streams these games freely this year?

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