RE OKC

After our initial conversations on expectations for OKC players in 12-13, I think we’re going to disagree on reasonable.

The AHL is a helluva league, it really is. Last season’s leading team in GF was Norfolk, with 273 goals. The best lockout AHL team (Binghampton) scored the same number of goals. Last season’s OKC team (213 goals) should be easy to clear but we shouldn’t expect any crazy goal totals from the 12-13 Barons.

I will publish the complete OKC RE on Saturday morning, but here’s the top 6:

  1. Jordan Eberle 74, 40-46-86
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 70, 28-57-85
  3. Magnus Paajarvi 76, 22-29-51
  4. Josh Green 70, 17-31-48
  5. Teemu Hartikainen 70, 21-22-43
  6. Tyler Pitlick 72, 16-26-42

I think the Oilers top line (which I have pegged as RNH-Ebs and a combination of Paajarvi and Hartikainen) will dominate the AHL in a manner similar to the Spezza Senators of 04-05. I don’t think they have the same depth as the 04-05 Senators. Am I wrong?

 

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17 Responses to "RE OKC"

  1. speeds says:

    Too low on the Nuge, IMO, provided they give him a ton of PP ice time which seems like a reasonable expectation to me.

    Eberle – about right
    Paajarvi – about right

    Also, I’d probably have Schultz above both Pitlick and Hartikainen based on PP time, but that’s all gut feeling guesswork.

  2. Lowetide says:

    I’m actually glad you said that, speeds. This was a baffling project for me, and I decided on the number despite being uneasy about it. This is an insanely difficult question.

  3. Truth says:

    I think Eberle scores at a pace to break 50 goals. I would also say he is a year or two from getting 50 in the NHL as well though.

    The Nuge will be a PP dynamo. I’m saying he’s on pace to get 60 points on the PP alone.

  4. speeds says:

    Even if 14 and 93 played soft competition in NHL last year, is there any reason to believe the hardest possible competition in the AHL this coming season will be any worse than they faced last year? Plus they’re 1yr older, and they won’t always be playing the hardest possible AHL comp.

    They seem to be pretty motivated guys, will they be going “all out”? Will they be used as they were in EDM, or will Nelson have specific instructions from the Oilers indicating they would like to see more defensive zone starts, split the two of them apart, more PK time and less PP time, etc? Tough to know what they’ll want to see the players develop, so you’re right that making a RE is somewhere between difficult and impossible with so many unknowns.

    Another question, any chance you think the Oilers/OKC give Eberle a whirl at C, just to see what it looks like?

  5. Lowetide says:

    speedsL: Interesting option to ponder (Eberle at C). I think they end up running the two together and then slotting in MP and Hartikainen to see who’s the better fit. I follow old man Svensson (Paajarvi’s Dad) on twitter and he’s a cool guy. Have to say I’m cheering like hell for his kid, but that Finn is a beauty too.

  6. Schitzo says:

    Too bad Hall is hurt, there would never have been a better chance to try him at C.

  7. jp says:

    Schitzo,

    Great call, though there still may be lots of time to try him at C in OKC after he’s all healed up…

  8. OilClog says:

    Will Hall be available to OKC if the lockout drags on?

    I think Hopkins goal totals will be much higher. His shot is severely underrated, he could have a hay day down there.

  9. DSF says:

    Magnus Paajarvi’s shooting percentage in the AHL is 7%.

    In order to score 22 goals in the AHL he would need to take more than 300 shots on goal.

    The AHL leader last season, Chris Bourque, had 290 shots on goal.

    Won’t happen.

  10. spoiler says:

    I missed the original post. Are we expecting Hall to be out for the year? Wouldn’t he have had an RE for the NHL anyway?

  11. Lowetide says:

    DSF: Perhaps his SP improves? Crazy talk, I know.

    spOILer: I expect Hall won’t play in OKC. All of the kids were covered in the original Oilers RE series, this is an adjustment for the AHL season.

  12. jp says:

    LT, thanks for doing a full/updated OKC RE. We appreciate that this is a difficult exercise, and there are a lot of unknows about how the players will be used, who they’ll play with, etc., etc. We may well respectfully disagree with your RE predictions, but the key there is respectfully.

    I don’t have any major disagreements with those numbers. I’d like to expect everyone but Pitlick on that list scores 5-10 points more than you suggest, but that’s probably me lacking the reasonable part. I’d also move Schultz up onto that list like speeds suggested, but other than that the only player I’d be dissapointed with even if he reached his RE would be Paajarvi. Your RE is behind Paajarvi’s pace from last year, and I think he’ll get a bit of a push from playing a good chunk of the year with RNH and Eberle (despite DSF’s final word).

    Regarding the 12-13 Barons vs the 04-05 Senators – on looking on that Sens team again, yeah they were pretty stacked! And to think that team only finished tied for 3rd overall in the regular season then went out in the 1st round of the playoffs. 3 of their top 6 have never played another AHL game, the other 3 were tweeners who’ve gotten to between 140 and 200 career NHL games.Chris Neil played a chunk of the season in the bottom 6. Emery in net has mostly been in the NHL since the lockout, and their top 3 D went straight to the NHL for the next few seasons (though 2 have since headed to Europe). There’s an outside chance this years Barons could match or better that type of NHL graduation, but it wouldn’t be wise to bet on it. I have to agree that the 12-13 Barons should easily best last years 213 goals, but likely won’t top the Norfolk/Binghampton total.

  13. serum114 says:

    My understanding on Hall is that he is not eligible to be sent down.

    All the NHLers last season who were AHL eligible were assigned to OKC before the lockout, however Hall was still on IR. When he comes off IR, he will be locked out and therefore can’t be assigned anywhere by the Oilers.

    Most reports I’ve seen expect him to play in Europe once he’s healed up.

  14. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: Perhaps his SP improves? Crazy talk, I know.

    spOILer: I expect Hall won’t play in OKC. All of the kids were covered in the original Oilers RE series, this is an adjustment for the AHL season.

    I thought this was a math site?

    Based on the math, he won’t.

  15. yawto says:

    Hall was on the tube the other day saying that if the lockout drags on and he gets better he wants to go to OKC and play with the Nuge and Ebs. Put a warm place in my heart. Said that OKC was a beautiful city and it would be a great experience. The heads on these kids is tremendous. I am not worried about the lockout cause I think our team could emerge from it as one of the best in the NHL.

  16. velo says:

    DSF: I thought this was a math site?

    Based on the math, he won’t.

    That’s pretty funny. It’s funny how we can disregard mathematical trends when we just know that something will change. However, I’m with LT…we’ll WILL him to improve and then it will happen…math be damned.

  17. VOR says:

    Based on what math DSF?

    A year and a half of NHL results? Half a year of AHL results? Analyzed how, compared to what, projected using what assumptions?

    We have no idea the shape of Magnus’ career at this point. For all any of us know we might be looking at the worst shooting percentage years of his career. Perhaps he is a career 10% SP. We don’t know. He might be Martin Erat who in his 2nd year in the NHL shot 2.6% and is a career 12.6% SP player. We don’t know what the future holds for MPS.

    If you are going to claim you know that future then you have to tell us the basis for your prediction. Or stop claiming the math supports you and admit you are just once again telling us, “because DSF says so”. That doesn’t work on your pet dog never mind anybody here.

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