2010 Draft Progress

I’ve paid close attention to the 2010 entry draft since it passed for a lot of reasons. The Oilers had the #1 overall pick and several top 100 picks–the kind of draft that could help build a foundation for success.

In hindsight, I probably should have been less bullish about the Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor draft era. I get about 20 contacts a month that say something to the effect of “well I guess that Stu MacGregor isn’t the genius you thought he was, huh?” which suggests I’m seeing things others do not see.

Lets go back then to 2010 and review my reasons for being so strong on the 2010 entry draft. In the Harvest Moon edition I wrote the following:

  • Overall impressions: A good, good draft. Hall clearly is going to be the story of this draft, but nice value in the second round (Pitlick, Marincin) and later (Davidson) tell us the Oilers set up their draft board well. I also like the Hamilton and Bunz selections, leaving only the Martindale pick as a question mark (they drafted for need) among the team’s most dear selections. I think MBS is an outstanding scouting director and if he can find a way to push those “saw him good” picks back another round he’ll be even better.  Blain, Czerwonka, Pelss and Jones are probably scouts picks, payment for all those nights driving to little towns all over the world in search of the next Taylor Hall. These men are going to be under pressure to deliver more than an average number of NHLers to the show for the next several seasons and it looks like they’ve delivered this season. Report card day is around 2015 summer. See you then.

MURRAY WILSON

I’m a big fan of players with a “wide range of skills.” I’m also a believer in drafting players within the range of their projected draft number. “Reach” picks should be limited to the #100+ selections, where “saw him good” and scouts favorites and enforcers and hunches belong.

2010 Oilers draft (Bob McKenzie numbers)

  • Taylor Hall selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Pitlick selected #31, ranked #25 (attended combine)
  • Martin Marincin selected #56, ranked #71 (attended combine)
  • Curtis Hamilton selected #48, ranked 57 (attended combine)
  • Ryan Martindale selected #61, ranked 58 (attended combine)
  • Jeremie Blain selected #91, not ranked
  • Tyler Bunz selected #121, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Brandon Davidson selected #162, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Drew Czerwonka selected #166, not ranked
  • Kristians Pelss selected #181, not ranked
  • Kellen Jones selected #202, not ranked

This is the point where I started to see MBS’ draft style. The combine list is important to the team and of course the McKenzie list marched in (mostly) lock step with the Oilers list. Blain was a “touch list” area scout selection and we could put Czerwonka, Pelss and Jones in the same category.

The kids who attended the combine–and some who did not–had a wide range of skills. Tyler Pitlick was a typical selection; quoting McKenzie’s draft summary: “A late 1991 birthdate, he was an offensive player in the Minnesota high school system but will have to prove he can put up numbers with each step up in competition, but he plays a solid enough all-around game to garner first round consideration.”

In 10-11, Taylor Hall, Tyler Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton, Ryan Martindale, Martin Marincin and Tyler Bunz appeared to be the stars of the show. One year later, Hall was still in the winner’s circle, but others were falling back. This season? I think Pitlick, Marincin, Martindale, Bunz and Davidson are looking pretty good. Here’s a quick glance at early season OKC scoring and plus minus for the group:

  1. Martin Marincin 3, 2-0-2 +6
  2. Ryan Martindale 2, 0-2-2 +2
  3. Tyler Pitlick 3, 0-1-1 +2
  4. Brandon Davidson 2, 0-0-0 E
  5. Curtis Hamilton 2, 0-0-0 -1
  6. Kristians Pelss 1, 0-0-0 E

Hall hasn’t played yet, and Bunz is in Stockton waiting for a call. The Oilers didn’t sign Blain or Czerwonka–the scouts’ picks imo–and we’re waiting on Kellen Jones.

Eight players signed out of 11, and I’d suggest that Marincin is emerging as the best MBS selection outside the first round. A little early, and he’ll have some competition, but he’s showing well early in his first pro season.

So, lets dispense with the Magnificent Bastard stuff, maybe I’m too strong on this draft and the Eberle pick and the rest. Based on the returns so far–and we have a ways to go–I’d suggest the 2010 entry draft was a good one based on what we know.

Considering that 25% of the OKC Barons comes from this draft–and this is in fact the first year they would project to be pro’s–at what point can we call this a success? If Marincin and another player join Hall as NHL regulars? Do Hall, Marincin and two others need to make the grade?  I think the 2010 entry draft is trending well. And that includes the genuine concern Curtis Hamilton.

I’ll have a GDT thread up later, looking forward to your opinions on the 2010 draft so far.

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33 Responses to "2010 Draft Progress"

  1. jonrmcleod says:

    To properly evaluate, it might be helpful to see the Oilers 2010 draftees lined up against the draftees of the other teams (maybe the teams with the top-5 picks). I don’t know if anyone has the time to do this.

  2. Lowetide says:

    It’s a little early imo, Jon. We can fault the Oilers for not talking Justin Faulk in the Pitlick slot, but he’s about the only guy who has emerged quickly. Pitlick is about even with Jared Knight imo, he was taken right after Pitlick.

    Marincin is trending well, but so is the guy taken afterward (Tyler Toffoli). We’ll be able to answer those things in 2015 summer.

  3. sliderule says:

    I like that they have gone with consensus on their first rounders and taken BPA..

    Their second round pick of Pitlick shows their scouting weakness in passing on Justin Faulk who had a great year in Carolina.It appears that oilers hardly cover USHL .They had better start as there are going to be a lot of good players coming out of that league .

    The other thing that concerns me is that their picks from WHL other than the Nuge look weak.As stu sees them the most what does that say about his acumen as a scout.

  4. DSF says:

    Florida Panthers

    # 3 Erik Gudbranson – NHL – 72GP

    #18 Nick Bjugstad – NCCA – 3GP 3G 1A 4P

    #25 Quinton Howden – AHL – 3GP 0G 2A 2P

    #33 John McFarland – AHL – 1GP 0G 0A 0P

    #36 Alex Petrovic – AHL – 3GP 0G 1A 1P

    #50 Connor Brickley – NCAA – 1GP 0P

    #69 Joe Basaraba – NCAA – 4GP 2G 0A 2P

    #92 Sam Brittain – NCAA – 1GP 1W – 0L GAA 1.00 SV% .974

    #93 Ben Gallacher – USHL – 2GP 0G 0A 0P

    #99 Joonas Donskoi – SM LIGA – 10GP – 1G 4A 5P

    #123 Zach Hyman – NCAA – 2GP 1G 1A 2P

    #153 Corey Durocher – CCHL – 10GP 3G 6A 9P

    # 183 RJ Boyd – NCAA – 3GP 0G 0A 0P

  5. DSF says:

    Columbus Blue Jackets

    #4 Ryan Johansen – NHL 67GP AHL 3GP 2G 1A 3P

    #34 Dalton Smith – AHL 3GP 1G 0A 1P

    #55 Petr Straka – QMJHL – 7GP 5G 4A 9P

    #94 Brandon Archibald – OHL – 2GP 0G 0A 0P

    # 102 Mathieu Corbeil-Theriault G CHL No Stats

    #124 Austin Madaisky – AHL – Non Stats

    #154 Dalton Prout – AHL – 2GP 1G 0A 1P

    # 184 Martin Ouellette – NCAA – No Stats

  6. RexLibris says:

    Corey Pronman has a great article up on Hockey Prospectus about draft ratings and evaluating picks. Worth a read, if you have the time.

    I wouldn’t be too hard on the MBS stuff, though. Looking over the draft record of perhaps one of the best scouts of the past twenty years, Hakan Andersson, shows that there are plenty of blown picks and screwups. And according to Pronman this can’t all fall on the scout. It might have been a good pick in a bad year, or bad luck (Doug Lynch), or even a poor development model (Oilers’ AHL time-sharing in the 2000s).

    If I could, I would probably trade every one of our 2012 picks for Montreal’s (yes, reluctantly but probably including Yakupov). But every scouting group has off years. In 2004 the Red Wings took Franzen in round 3 (their 1st pick that year) but of all the other players taken (eight in total) he remains the only one to log a single NHL game. It can happen to Andersson and his crew, so I’m willing to give MacGregor the benefit of the doubt. So long as he doesn’t Barry Fraser it from here on in.

  7. DSF says:

    New York Islanders

    #5 Nino Niederreiter – AHL – 2GP 2G 2A 4P

    #30 Brock Nelson – AHL 2GP 1G 2A 3P

    #65 Kirill Kabanov – AHL 2GP 0G 2A 2P

    #82 Jason Clark – AHL – No Stats

    #125 Tony DeHart – ECHL – 2GP 1G 0A 1P

    #185 Cody Rosen G NCAA – 1GP GAA 6.28 SV% .833

  8. Jonathan Willis says:

    Honestly, I think MacGregor’s done a good job, with just the odd throwback to the failings of the Prendergast years (I’m thinking specifically of Abney and Moroz). I still think 2010′s looking pretty good and expect the team will get a player or two out of there beyond Hall.

    On Martindale, I’m not sold. His stats line looks fine but the assists were both nothing plays on fluke goals (a Green shot from behind the red line that bounced in off the goalie, a Marincin pass that hit a defenceman’s skate and bounced in) and as second-line center he really leaves something to be desired by eye.

    With that said, Marincin’s still quite raw but his talent is undeniable, Pitlick looks like a decent role player, Bunz is tracking well and every other pick is still in the game – Blain signed with Vancouver’s AHL team, Jones is still in college, etc. Some of them will probably have 2008-like careers (one game for Motin, two for Cornet) but two years out there’s nobody who can be completely written off.

  9. Zack says:

    jonrmcleod:
    To properly evaluate, it might be helpful to see the Oilers 2010 draftees lined up against the draftees of the other teams (maybe the teams with the top-5 picks). I don’t know if anyone has the time to do this.

    HockeyDB has the ability for a quick glance at NHL boxcars for a given draft year. It won’t be nicely lined up but if you do some scrolling or clicking you can find the info. As a matter of fact, if I recall correctly, you can even view a teams selected draft year and view their boxcars. Have your top five teams on five different tabs and there you go.

  10. DSF says:

    Of course, Toronto was slated to pick #2 overall but didn’t get a pick until #43.

    #43 Brad Ross – AHL No Stats

    #62 Greg McKegg – AHL – 3GP 0G 0A 0P

    #79 Sondre Olsen – OHL – No Stats

    #116 Petter Granberg – SEL – No Stas

    #144 Sam Carrick – ECHL 2GP 0G 0A 0P

    #146 Daniel Brodin – SM Liga 15GP 1G 1A 2P

    #182 Josh Nicholls – WHL – 12GP 10G 6A 16P

  11. Mr DeBakey says:

    I liked the 2010 draft.
    It had a plan and a focus.
    Plus, No Moroz or Abney [or even Hence, no Moroz or Abney]
    I don’t get too worked up about the Faulks of the world, every team can Cudda, Wudda, Shudda about every draft.

    Also, one has to wonder how about the GM’s role at the draft table – for good, for evil, how frequently or seldom…

  12. Smidpet says:

    Always was a fan of Czerwonka over Ewanyk.
    It’ll be interesting to see how Blain does this year down in Idaho. Hopefully the Oilers made the right call in signing Davidson over him

  13. Traktor says:

    Hamilton looks like a complete bust imo. Ultra vanilla even with his size.

  14. Zack says:

    It looks like Florida had a solid draft too, some names that stick out are Gudbranson (obviously) – a nasty top pairing (from what ive heard) shutdown d, Petrovic another gritty shutdown d with solid potential (saw him quite a bit in Red Deer), Howden and Bjugstad. It’s kind of scary to think what happens when they have Huberdeau and Markstrom knocking on the door too.

  15. speeds says:

    I guess my reading on the 2010 draft is similar to most, in that I think EDM had what looked like a pretty good draft at the time, but still too early to be definitive.

    My problem with EDM’s drafting over the past few years is a philosophical opposition to the apparent rationale behind a (seemingly growing) number of their picks.

    Moroz, Abney, Ewanyk, (Perhonen to a lesser extent) these are 3 fairly early picks where I don’t agree with the philosophy behind drafting those types of players at that point in the draft. And that’s simply too many from my POV. I don’t know if that Stu being given free range, or if the picks are being imposed on him from above – either way I don’t agree with it.

  16. Jonathan Willis says:

    Hamilton doesn’t really have a physical game that I’ve seen, but he had his best game of the young AHL season last night – had one really nice rush in the first period and did solid work on the PK all night. Hard to stand out on the fourth line, but he looked pretty good.

  17. godot10 says:

    All that is missing from Pitlick’s game is actual production. He has all the tools. The top end is still potentially a 2nd line power forward, but unless the production begins coming by the end of this season, it may be 4th line energy guy.

    He also has been on 4 different teams in 4 years. This is the first year in a long time that the will be on the same team two year in a row.

    I’m still pretty hopeful that he wil be a productive rugged winger.

    We have to remember that Pitlick and Hamilton were two of the younger players in the AHL last year, stuck on a very good team.

  18. Lowetide says:

    speeds: I think the 2010 draft was so exciting from my pov because they didn’t have that third round walkabout. Hamilton and Martindale may not be everyone’s cup of tea but they were ranked and I believe picking concensus every time is the way to go (I’m sure most would agree).

    In regard to who makes the picks, I think the scouting director is the guy who makes the call. Perhonen I suspect they were just really strong on him–the club drafted two goalies that season, never happens–and Moroz imo is different only in that they believe (clearly) he can play with actual hockey players.

  19. DSF says:

    Zack:
    It looks like Florida had a solid draft too, some names that stick out are Gudbranson (obviously) – a nasty top pairing (from what ive heard) shutdown d, Petrovic another gritty shutdown d with solid potential (saw him quite a bit in Red Deer), Howden and Bjugstad. It’s kind of scary to think what happens when they have Huberdeau and Markstrom knocking on the door too.

    Worth remembering they also have Drew Shore (#44 2009) and Colby Robak (#46 2008) also playing very well in the San Antonio.

    Tallon’s strategy of dumping vets for 6 picks in the first two rounds in the 2010 draft looks like it’s going to pay off big time.

    It seems likely he could end up with 5 NHL players from that draft alone.

  20. spoiler says:

    I think we have to take into consideration how weak Moroz’s draft year was. I don’t think that player gets slotted there in other draft years.

    I think we also have to agree that after about the 30th pick in any draft, consensus is a myth. And I belleve there is plenty of evidence for that fact.

  21. jp says:

    Hard not to look at the 2010 draft as being a strong one for the Oilers (obviously it will take a few more years to know for sure though). It would be difficult to consider it a bad draft if Hall and one other player has a solid career (and it looks positive for at least one of those other guys making an impact). With 3 2nd round picks though, if it ends up just being Halll +1, that’s probably a mediocre result given the number and quality of bullets available. Florida’s apparent “strong draft” in 2010 is based on 3 1st and 3 2nd round picks – tough (but not impossible) to completely screw that up!

    All said, 2010 still looks like a strong draft for the Oil, and I think Stu has done a good job (though the lustre has begun to come off him just a bit).

    Of note, Bunz has also started off well in the ECHL. 3 1-1-1 1.67 .925. Has gotten all of Stockton’s starts and posted 1 SO. He, Pitlick and Marincin look to be the best bets to join Hall in with the Oilers at some point.

  22. speeds says:

    spoiler:
    I think we have to take into consideration how weak Moroz’s draft year was. I don’t think that player gets slotted there in other draft years.

    I think we also have to agree that after about the 30th pick in any draft, consensus is a myth. And I belleve there is plenty of evidence for that fact.

    Ii think that’s a bit of an easy out. It might not have been that deep in later rounds, but at 32 there was still some pretty significant talent available.

    The next 7 guys picked were:

    Collberg
    Pokka
    Finn
    Kerdiles
    Aberg
    Di Giuseppe
    Sutter

    and I would take any of them over Moroz. Which isn’t to say that Moroz will bust, or that they’re all all-stars, but that I like the chances of any of those 7 more than the chances for Moroz. We’re only talking probability, not certainty, and I certainly hope I’m mistaken.

  23. hockeyguy10 says:

    RexLibris,

    You might want to have a closer look at Detroit’s and Hakan Andersson.s draft record lately.The Oilers drafted Cogliano in 2005. He has 1 more goal than ALL the players drafted by Detroit and who have played for Detroit since they drafted Franzen in 2004.Shawn Matthias has 25 goals but never played for Detroit.

    Hakan Andersson is their Euro scout. His last fifteen picks since Franzen have 8 goals in the NHL. Linus Omark has 8 goals in almost half as many games played.

    Looks like Barry Fraser may have subletted his place in Mexico.

  24. speeds says:

    Just to continue, as my edit time has elapsed.

    I liked Sutter more than Moroz at the time of the draft, he’s had a terrible start though. Sample sizes are small for him (and Moroz), I’m basing having him ahead of Moroz more on last season’s results than early returns this year, where neither has been anything approaching great.

  25. DSF says:

    hockeyguy10:
    RexLibris,

    You might want to have a closer look at Detroit’s andHakan Andersson.s draft record lately.The Oilers drafted Cogliano in 2005. He has 1 more goal than ALL the players drafted by Detroit and who have played for Detroit since they drafted Franzen in 2004.Shawn Matthias has 25 goals but never played for Detroit.

    Hakan Andersson is their Euro scout. His last fifteen picks since Franzen have 8 goals in the NHL. Linus Omark has 8 goals in almost half as many games played.

    Looks like Barry Fraser may have subletted his place in Mexico.

    Don’t think so.

    You have to remember Detroit brings its prospects along much more slowly.

    2005:

    Jakub Kindl 106 GP

    Justin Abdelkader 209GP

    2006:

    Corey Emmerton 73GP (NHL ready)

    Shawn Matthias 205GP (traded to Florida)

    2007:

    Brendan Smith 14GP (NHL ready)

    2008:

    Thomas McCollum AHL goaltender

    Max Nicastro NCAA (just graduated)

    Gustav Nyquist 18GP (NHL ready)

    2009:

    Landon Ferraro AHL 3GP 2G 1A 3P

    Tomas Tatar AHL 76GP 24G 34A 58P (2011/12) May be NHL ready

    2010:

    Riley Sheahan NCAA (just graduated)

    Calle Jarnkrok SEL 15GP 2G 11A 13P

    2011:

    Tomas Jurco 30G and 68P in the QMJHL last season 3GP 1G 0A 1P in the AHL

    2012:

    Martin Frk 10GP 2G 7A 9P QMJHL.

    Considering the Wings have never drafted higher than 21st since 2005, I would think that’s a pretty good track record.

  26. spoiler says:

    speeds: Ii think that’s a bit of an easy out.It might not have been that deep in later rounds, but at 32 there was still some pretty significant talent available.

    The next 7 guys picked were:

    Collberg
    Pokka
    Finn
    Kerdiles
    Aberg
    Di Giuseppe
    Sutter

    and I would take any of them over Moroz.Which isn’t to say that Moroz will bust, or that they’re all all-stars, but that I like the chances of any of those 7 more than the chances for Moroz.We’re only talking probability, not certainty, and I certainly hope I’m mistaken.

    Speeds, I agree, I didn’t have Moroz there either, but I also don’t think he makes it out of the 2nd round.

  27. Jonathan Willis says:

    hockeyguy10,

    One problem with that sort of analysis is how Detroit’s development system works. I’d take Brendan Smith over Andrew Cogliano right now without any question, but he has just 14 games in the NHL because he got his full college career plus two seasons in the AHL. Gustav Nyquist was a point-per-game guy in the minors last year (he’s an ’08 pick) after finishing his college career. There are plenty of other examples.

    Now, they are a long ways from perfect – *cough*Landon Ferraro*cough* – but I haven’t seen a Barry Fraser style implosion either.

  28. hockeyguy10 says:

    Jonathan Willis,

    I would take Cogliano he is proven at the NHL level. Smith has two full seasons in the AHL. So you think he would be ready to graduate. But instead Detroit trades away a first round pick for a 3-4 D(Quincy a former 4th round pick) who already walked away from their organization once. And then go sign Colaiacovo effectively making Smith their #7. Not much of an endorsement by Detroit for a guy they drafted 5 years ago

    If the Oilers let a fourth round pick walk away and then trade a first round to get him back all the Oiler sites would implode at the same time.
    :-)

  29. gd says:

    Hey, according to my guide, Minnesota at Michigan Tech is on the Score at 5pm. Should be a great chance to check out Khaira. Minnesota is ranked No 1, has a ton of top prospects and should be ornery after losing last night.

  30. Jonathan Willis says:

    hockeyguy10,

    Quincey was actually a #1/#2 D in Colorado when the Red Wings dealt for him. That, and with their losses over the summer – Lidstrom and Stuart – picking up Quincey was a great move even if Smith was all that and a bag of chips too.

    I’ll take an unproven guy with a decent shot at being a top-4 D over a guy who is quickly turning into a mediocre third-liner.

  31. RexLibris says:

    hockeyguy10,

    I’ve had a look at Detroit’s drafting record pretty closely and I agree with both DSF and Jonathan. They tend to keep their drafted players in the AHL (or other development leagues) for nearly their entire entry-level deals. Smith might not have proven as much as Cogliano yet, but once upon a time Penner, Smid and Cogliano for Dany Heatley looked like a good deal. Today? Not so much.

    I would rank MacGregor’s draft history, thus far, in the upper third of the league. There are a lot of other guys out there doing it worse than he, and a few doing it better.

    That being said, Lowetide is right. We need to stop canonizing MacGregor because at some point he’ll need to get off this train and it’ll be a lot easier for us to recognize that time if we can objectively determine his performance.

  32. hags9k says:

    I think it’s a strong draft at this point and that Bunz is the wild card. Buddy can kick pucks. Still I think we all know it’s way too early to be grading this draft.

  33. VOR says:

    HAGS9K,

    I was thinking the same thing about discussing the Class of 2010. It is absurdly early. Tonight I had a few hours to kill so I thought I’d try some sort of test to see if you and I are right.

    I concluded that it may not be too early to look at the total draft class. That is because the best draft classes announce their greatness almost from the start.

    Take the class of 1984 – by this point ie. the beginning of 1986-87 NHL season the 21 players taken in the first round had played 1471 games, approximately 70 games on average. 8 players had played over 100 games. The first rounders as a group would go on to average 700 games played in the NHL. Though only one who hadn’t played by the start of 1986-87 would have a career.

    For the 2010 draft class 5 players have played over 100 games and the 30 players taken in the first round have played 1014 games, an average of roughly 34 games per player.

    By the end of 1985-86 season 12 other players taken in the 1984 draft had seen action. They had played 312 games or 26 per player. Those 12 players would go on to play 11332 games in the NHL or 944 per player.

    The Class of 2010 has 7 players outside of round one who have seen action and they have played 135 games to date or roughly 19 per player.

    So it looks like 1984 is a far better draft than 2010. On the surface anyway.

    What we can’t know for 2010 is who lies sleeping – which (if any) of the talented young men who have yet to step on the ice will have long productive careers. In the fall of 1986 nobody in their right mind would have predicted that 10 more players from 1984 would play 600 plus games in the NHL or that they would average almost a thousand games a piece.

    By the way, each of the three groups from 1984 includes truly great players. Amongst the 10 players who hadn’t yet stepped on ice as the 1986 season got underway were Luc Robatialle and Gary Roberts.

    I don’t actually think the Class of 2010 will ever be mentioned in the same breath as 1984. That said, I suspect if I repeat this exercise for each draft year (two years out) that 2010 is tracking in the top 10 classes of the past 30 years. Testing that hypothesis will be my next time killer.

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