TAYLOR HALL IN OKC: ONCE IN A LIFETME

On December 4, 2010 Taylor Hall took a pass from Ryan Whitney at the start of OT, flew down the wing and scored a goal in seconds.

It was one example of something Taylor Hall does very well even at a young age: gain the offensive zone. Eric Tulsky has been doing a lot of work on the subject and the early results are very interesting:

  • Entries with possession produce twice as much offense as entries without possession, and some individuals have a clear talent for gaining the zone.

Using Tulsky’s work and applying it to Hall without evidence is unfair, but young Hall is so good at it (I’d say he rivals Hemsky, who has always been a savant) it seems reasonable to suggest he performs well at the discipline. How well? We’ll need to do some work.

Adding up the numbers will be the real proof, and I’m confident NHL Numbers and others sites will follow Hall whenever the NHL decides to start up the business again. We know he’s a special young player and getting those zone entry numbers a year from now will help turn the photo from B&W to color.

Which brings us to OKC. Hall is looking to get into AHL action in the next couple of weeks, and should he spend the season with the Barons I think we may see some very special numbers. As good as the Nuge is on the PP, as quick a release as Jordan Eberle owns, gaining the zone is an enormous part of the equation.

I don’t know if it is instinct or knowledge or simply a learned skill over years, but the Tulsky possession metric is something I believe Taylor Hall is made for, he’s an ideal player for the discipline.

If he gets to OKC, those possession sorties are going to turn into goals. Often.

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41 Responses to "TAYLOR HALL IN OKC: ONCE IN A LIFETME"

  1. PunjabiOil says:

    The mens’ national soccer team is playing their biggest game in 10 years today.

    Thomas Hall’s contributions are of nominal concern at the moment.

  2. Lowetide says:

    I think Hall’s OKC games will be among the most interesting things we talk about this winter. Seriously.

  3. jp says:

    RE?

    I’ll throw 62-41-40-81 out there. I agree that he will likely eat up the AHL even more than the other 2. He already controls NHL games in a way that RNH and Eberle aren’t capable of. This will be fun to watch once he’s back up to 100%.

  4. Lowetide says:

    JP: Seems reasonable. I haven’t looked at the number closely but Hall should have a major impact.

  5. Bob Arctor says:

    David Byrne is playing this weekend in Vancouver. Worth checking out if you can find tickets.

  6. PunjabiOil says:

    Ideally would like all of RNH, Eberle, and Hall to flirt at a point-per-game north of 1.5.

    We wait.

  7. borisnikov says:

    Bob Arctor,

    I introduced my 3 and 5 year old to the ‘Stop Making Sense’ DVD (directed by Jonathan Demme). They love it. So much so that the 3 year old threw a tantrum when he found out I lent it to a friend.

  8. russ99 says:

    “Entries with possession produce twice as much offense as entries without possession, and some individuals have a clear talent for gaining the zone.”

    Finally, here’s the argument-ender when a hockey discussion inevitably ends up at dump and chase vs. carrying the puck.

  9. Truth says:

    Klefbom out at least 4-6 weeks as per Corey Pronman Twitter account.

    Must be an Oiler

  10. LMHF#1 says:

    Unless I’m missing something, that article appears to be talking about shots and should be labelled as such rather than calling it “offense”.

  11. jake70 says:

    Borisnikov, I’ve got that DVD as well, will have to dust it off and give it a play sometime. David Byrne does some funky dance moves in the video for OIAL..in an interview I saw he said he was quite disturbed watching himself afterward in the video.

    Hearing NHL just put in a new proposal, wonder if we’ll see if Hall down there.

  12. jfry says:

    way OT:
    but O’reilly’s StrataRX is live streaming the next few days, with a focus on “how to use data in medicine”

    there’s some cool ideas about how to react and think about data and metrics, for those interested.

    http://strataconf.com/rx2012/public/content/video/

  13. DSF says:

    The NHL has dropped a new proposal.

    - 50-50 revenue split

    - No salary rollbacks

    -full 82 game season starting Nov 2

    Might work.

  14. cabbiesmacker says:

    Finally, here’s the argument-ender when a hockey discussion inevitably ends up at dump and chase vs. carrying the puck.

    I don’t agree. One more piece of info perhaps but certainly not 100% conclusive. Depends on the team and talent just like many others.

    Mike Keenan had a reasonably successful career employing dump and chase to a large degree and did it with some good teams and some bad. If you’ve got the right personnel and can exploit slow or inexperienced D on the forecheck dump and chase can be very effective.

    By the same token if it’s Zack Stortini or Shawn Horcoff carrying the puck into the offensive zone results are usually still MEH

  15. godot10 says:

    A 100-mph fastball is a relatively useless weapon for a starting pitcher unless he also has a change-up.

    Ditto for possession vs. chip/dump-and-chase. It is much better if you are capable of doing both.

    Ditto using the run to set up the pass, and vice versa in NFL football.

    My biggest beef with Hemsky is that he doesn’t incorporate the chip-and-chase to set up his possession drives and one-on-one moves. The defenseman knows Hemsky is never going to dump or chip the puck, and Hemsky becomes a pitcher just throwing fastballs.

    Babcock couldn’t convince Zetterberg and Datsyuk to chip-and-chase some of the time until the MacT trapped Detroit in 2006 shutting down their possession offense.

  16. Jonathan Willis says:

    We’ll be tracking zone entries for the Oilers at the Cult of Hockey for whenever the next NHL season starts.

    I’ve started on last year’s data – and Hall does look to be killing it – but I’m not nearly done yet.

  17. jp says:

    cabbiesmacker: I don’t agree. One more piece of info perhaps but certainly not 100% conclusive. Depends on the team and talent just like many others.

    Mike Keenan had a reasonably successful career employing dump and chase to a large degree and did it with some good teams and some bad. If you’ve got the right personnel and can exploit slow or inexperienced D on the forecheck dump and chase can be very effective.

    By the same token if it’s Zack Stortini or Shawn Horcoff carrying the puck into the offensive zone results are usually still MEH

    Agreed. I would think too that o-line turnovers are a lot more likely to result in a chance the other way. Successful puck entry I’m sure does increase shots/chances/offense for, but playing that style could also lead to more quality chances against. For sure depends on the personnel though.

  18. rickithebear says:

    Dump And chase?
    Versus pocession entry?
    Effective by situation.
    D press (dump)
    Effective with good corner retrieval players. See RNH and Omark
    D back (Pocess)
    Effective by Driving & Shooting on entry.
    Not entering and passing.
    Entering and loosing puck or circling the net.
    Succes rate?
    A. Goals got by attack.
    B. Goals given by counter attack.

    You guys are sure hammering A.
    Its like being on HF Boards.

    Now the real point to this:
    1st phase pocession
    2nd phase pocession
    Defended loss of pocession
    Odd man Loss of pocession.

    What are the options:
    1. At entry of offensive zone 1st pahse
    2. Determine if you are pressed.
    3. If pressed: what is the best % play
    A. trying to beat and cause
    -(loss of pocession) odd man counter attack
    -driven to boards and competition for pocession (2nd Phase)
    – Driven to the outside circle the net (2nd Phase)
    – Drive to the net and Shoot (goal, 2nd Phase, Defended or Counter LOP)
    B. Dump and Chase
    -Drive to corner and Competition for Pocession (2nd Phase)
    – Loss of pocession in defended position
    – Dump for line Change
    4. If D back
    A. Try to beat
    – Drive Net and Shoot or Drop/cross ice pass.
    – Driven outside and Circle (2nd Phase)
    B. Dump and Chase
    – Goal pocesses or D pocesses with low % of counter.
    – low % of pocession (2nd Phase)

    The dump and chase provides alot more defended options.
    The pocession into the zone provides the only 1st phase oportunity of scoring.
    Though attempted entry while being pressed is just down right stupid.

  19. cabbiesmacker says:

    Theres been research on a couple of additional stats providing compelling evidence that they contribute to wins.

    1) If you have the puck on “your” stick the other team finds it tougher to score

    2) the team with the most talent on their roster usually wins

    Neither are lessened much by coaching, system, home/away, etc etc

  20. Dalton says:

    PunjabiOil: Ideally would like all of RNH, Eberle, and Hall to flirt at a point-per-game north of 1.5.

    We wait.

    Flag on the field, improper use of your favourite phrase “we wait”. No waiting needed: OKC is playing games RIGHT NOW.

  21. jake70 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    The mens’ national soccer team is playing their biggest game in 10 years today.

    They should have brought Sinclair with them, Honduras having their way with them.

  22. russ99 says:

    I agree there’s a place in the game for dump and chase, like when outmanned or when working with a less skilled team. It’s just not good hockey for the players and the fans.

    Would rather see a nice entry play into the zone and an eventual turnover (with an actual NHL-level defense backing it up) than cycling the puck ad nauseum Renney-style for 2-3 minutes hoping for a good chance that never comes with the intention of playing keepaway from the other team to keep our shots against down.

    Should be interesting to see how Krueger sees it, if we ever get started. More hopeful today than since the lockout that it could be soon.

  23. jp says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    Theres been research on a couple of additional stats providing compelling evidence that they contribute to wins.

    1) If you have the puck on “your” stick the other team finds it tougher to score

    2) the team with the most talent on their roster usually wins

    Neither are lessened much by coaching, system, home/away, etc etc

    I’d like to see that research on “talent”.

  24. LMHF#1 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    The mens’ national soccer team is playing their biggest game in 10 years today.

    Thomas Hall’s contributions are of nominal concern at the moment.

    PO, you watching what appears to be one of the worst performances on the international stage by a Canadian team in a major sport? What the hell is going on?

  25. raventalon40 says:

    Katz and company did not attend the ‘town hall’ meeting that was set up.

    As per TSN:

    “Katz said there is no point meeting because there are too many outstanding issues to be resolved.”

    Forgive me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the whole point of meeting to resolve outstanding issues when they’ve grown too numerous? What a bunch of baloney.

    What does his apology mean if he’s not willing to change?

  26. BlacqueJacque says:

    Just goes to show that Katz isn’t serious about a fair deal.

    And what’s that BS about “my door is always open” in his statement?! You just turned down a meeting with council and you say your door is open for a meeting?!

    Clown. We need new ownership that isn’t trying to rip the city and its citizens off completely.

  27. delooper says:

    Why should the city negotiate with Katz if it’s not clear there’ll be another NHL season? Resolve the CBA like an adult first, them come talk to the city.

  28. BlacqueJacque says:

    raventalon40,

    Raven,

    That apology is exactly what I said it was: “I only hit you because I love you”. Go back to read it (I’d find a link for you but I’m on my phone), and tell me otherwise. His behavior has been consistently neglectful and even abusive of the city and the fans unless he wants something. Bad owner.

  29. raventalon40 says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Oh I remember that comment clearly, I read LT every day. :-)

    Call him an opportunist. I psychopathic opportunist, but an opportunist nonetheless.

  30. BlacqueJacque says:

    Sorry, I meant to say go back and read Katz’s letter.

    I don’t brag THAT much! :)

  31. LMHF#1 says:

    I’m not exactly sure why so many people object to not attempting to negotiate a deal in an open council meeting while a bunch of presumptive mayors who know very little about business try to score political points.

    It is common practice to work out your solutions to the problem then do the presenting of those solutions.

    Overall, there is way too much emotionality involved in this process at the moment.

  32. Truth says:

    I believe the deadline for a meeting between Katz and the City was to be tomorrow.

    Katz is frustrated with the City as he should be. The City is obviously not living up to the original framework of the deal and attempting to make him look like the bad guy. If he was promised a subsidy in which to cover operating costs, be it through a casino or elsewhere, live up to it. I’m so sick of hearing “Katz is a billionaire, why doesn’t he build the arena himself” from the average Edmontonian I’m going to end up in jail one day. If he could receive a fraction of the tax revenue that this project would bring I’m sure he would gladly build it himself. As much as it appears to be the City pitching in to build Katz’s Oilers an arena it should be Katz pitching in to build a more vibrant downtown for the City. A vibrant downtown that will benefit Edmontonians in so many ways, including financially. Until the “average” taxpayer realizes this and voices their opinion through political process, this deal is going nowhere. What a shame.

    The City Administration is clearly using his love for Edmonton and the stronghold the Oilers have in Edmonton against him. I don’t blame Katz in the least for seeking other markets. In fact, if I wasn’t rooted in Edmonton and I had the opportunity to leave I would be happy to see them go. I’d be walking out the door with them. Edmonton must have one of the most neglected downtown cores in Canada. Have a little self respect Edmontonians.

  33. russ99 says:

    Well put.

    I hope this muckraking and posturing in the press stops, it helps nobody in this situation. There needs to be some sincere private negotiation where both sides give something to get this deal done.

    Katz showing up tomorrow to get grilled by a city council with disparate agendas was never going to happen, so there’s no reason to get up in arms about it.

  34. godot10 says:

    Katz is moving the goalposts. He now wants a free arena, no strings attached, and a subsidy. (i.e. the operating subsidy he is asking for is larger than his rent/mortgage payment on the city loan).

    There must be a whole lot of development planned that was not anticipated in NY by Katz, and he sees and that the city will get more in the CRL levy than expected.

    At this point, it makes more sense for the city to build the arena itself, and look for an NHL team that wants to play there.

    His original promise, way back at the beginning, was that he would contribute $100 million for an arena. The city has lived up to that bargain, and more. Handing him the keys to an arena, and letting him pay his $100 million amortized over 35 years.

    I support that basic deal in the framework it was negotiated in New York. But now he is asking for more than a free arena, which means the city should just go it alone on the arena and the arena district.

  35. raventalon40 says:

    LMHF#1,

    I’ve worked in public and private industry and the biggest difference is that when you negotiate to secure public funding you have to also convince the taxed public. You can negotiate all the deals you want behind closed doors but it doesn’t take a Mayor to decide on outstanding items – it takes the minimum passing vote of the necessary amount of Councillors.

    This is true of any municipality, city, or county.

    A public discussion is a public discussion. I’m not suggesting the public arena is the best place for all of these issues, but when public works (and public funds) is at stake you have to play ball when it comes to public debate.

    He doesn’t have to solve all 15 outstanding issues at a public debate. But if they are that far apart I don’t see a public debate as an impediment to progress. If anything, it might be just what they need. Hell, if they had time to discuss 5 issues and solve them, that would be a lot of progress.

  36. BlacqueJacque says:

    Godot, actually, his original promise was $200m to the arena district – $100m for the arena and $100m for surrounding development.

    As you’ve noticed, he’s cut that down a lot.

    LOL@ people claiming that city council is abusing Katz and his desire to stay in Edmonton (really? after the Seattle trip?) Or that council is a bunch of major wanna-bes. No, it isn’t. Most council members are fine being on council. If we move up to federal or especially provincial politics, you see a lot more ambitious people, but city councilors usually get their start because of dissatisfaction with a specific issue in their neighbourhoods and then they continue a life of service. They’re normal people.

    As for our mayor himself… the majority of the opposition to our dear Mandel is that he’s TOO friendly with property developers. He’s the business mayor, the guy who puts more subdivisions, more commercial spaces, ahead of infrastructure maintenance and upgrades.

  37. BlacqueJacque says:

    I mean, come on, the last election the major argument against Mandel is that he puts big, sexy projects ahead of equally important but less-noticeable stuff like maintenance. This isn’t Jan Reimer here, folks. It’s not as if I enjoy thinking that our owner is an exploitative prick. It doesn’t make my life any better to realize that my money goes to a guy who’s trying to take more money out of me through subsidies that come from my taxes.

    We have to face the ugly truth here – Daryl Katz is a manipulative, greedy, unscrupulous man who is not only all that – we’ve seen him manipulate, with the Seattle trip. He’s being greedy in his demands for the arena, which keep growing. And we know he’s unscrupulous – he’s already threatened us by suggesting he’ll move the team. It’s sad but the man will clearly stop at nothing but a deal in which he cannot lose money.

    Hate me for it, but I’m not hiding from the ugly truth.

  38. LMHF#1 says:

    raventalon40:
    LMHF#1,

    I’ve worked in public and private industry and the biggest difference is that when you negotiate to secure public funding you have to also convince the taxed public. You can negotiate all the deals you want behind closed doors but it doesn’t take a Mayor to decide on outstanding items – it takes the minimum passing vote of the necessary amount of Councillors.

    This is true of any municipality, city, or county.

    A public discussion is a public discussion. I’m not suggesting the public arena is the best place for all of these issues, but when public works (and public funds) is at stake you have to play ball when it comes to public debate.

    He doesn’t have to solve all 15 outstanding issues at a public debate. But if they are that far apart I don’t see a public debate as an impediment to progress. If anything, it might be just what they need. Hell, if they had time to discuss 5 issues and solve them, that would be a lot of progress.

    Hey Raven, thanks for relaying the experience. Mine has been from the private side dealing with government and working with companies on how they deal with government. The best discussions and agreements have always been when the details and a win-win can be worked out through face to face talks. I fail to see why this cannot be done in that manner. The City appears to be operating very differently than the other levels of government would and I disagree with that approach.

    It is up to the politicians to explain to the public how they spend the people’s dollars. This is not Katz’s responsibility in this instance. Could he help the City people out? Sure. Is it his duty? No. The City took this on and decided to operate in this fashion. They can operate like a pseudo-business if they want to I guess…despite the fact that they are not one and do not have the people to run one.

    I was referring to wannabe mayors grandstanding, not THE Mayor pushing anything through. Our municipal gov’ts are intriguing in how incredibly minuscule the actual power of the Mayor is.

    When the Province and/or Feds finance a project, it isn’t exactly presented for “debate”. You also don’t have the proponent standing before the legislature.

    Is this really a “Public Work”? I’m not seeing it.

    I’m sure each side has time to discuss the issues, but the public council meeting process is not conducive to solutions on anything quite frankly. It quickly turns into an airing of grievances and administrative clarifications. That’s not going to help.

    Get Council reps and the Katz group in a room, hash it out or don’t, then present. The votes are either there or they aren’t, but you’d hope there would be leadership on Council to garner them. Presenting beforehand would damage things in the end because no one comes out a winner.

  39. LMHF#1 says:

    BlacqueJacque:

    We have to face the ugly truth here – Daryl Katz is a manipulative, greedy, unscrupulous man who is not only all that – we’ve seen him manipulate, with the Seattle trip.He’s being greedy in his demands for the arena, which keep growing.And we know he’s unscrupulous – he’s already threatened us by suggesting he’ll move the team.It’s sad but the man will clearly stop at nothing but a deal in which he cannot lose money.

    Hate me for it, but I’m not hiding from the ugly truth.

    Truth involves facts. You’ve spouted a ton of rhetoric and speculation. You also seem unfamiliar with negotiation.

  40. BlacqueJacque says:

    I just stated facts.

    He’s manipulative – he threatened to move the team!
    He’s greedy – he wants an arena deal in which he can’t possibly lose money
    He’s unscrupulous – he didn’t care that he upset the fans by threatening to move

    None of that is rhetoric or speculation.

    Also, I am familiar with negotiation. This is why I’m complaining about Katz, because he wants too much.

    If the city is going to the point of subsidizing the Oilers and guarantee Katz a profit, it may as well build an arena, refuse to rent to Katz, tell the NHL that Edmonton will buy the Oilers, and at least save on Katz’s profit margin.

    Capitalism involves risk and reward, profit and LOSS. If he risks nothing (which he’s trying not to), he deserves no reward. Katz’s investment on this arena at this point is – a few hundred thousand in concept, a few hundred thousand on land options … and that’s it.

  41. Bob Arctor says:

    borisnikov,

    Thanks for the suggestion. I haven’t watched it but i’ll definately take a look. This thread is buried about 15 posts back, hopefully you catch the thanks…

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