HEAVEN

What have we learned so far this fall about the “bubbling under” prospects in OKC? Aside from Justin Schultz, have any of the NHL outsiders established themselves as strong options when the NHL returns?

I don’t think so. Lets look at the depth chart by position, with OKC roster (aside from big 3) players in bold.

GOALIES

  1. Devan Dubnyk
  2. Nikolai Khabibulin (injured)
  3. Yann Danis (likely callup)

DEFENSE

  1. Ladislav Smid
  2. Jeff Petry
  3. Nick Schultz
  4. Justin Schultz
  5. Ryan Whitney
  6. Andy Sutton (injured)
  7. Theo Peckham
  8. Corey Potter
  9. Colten Teubert

CENTER

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  2. Sam Gagner
  3. Shawn Horcoff
  4. Eric Belanger
  5. Chris VandeVelde

LEFT WING

  1. Taylor Hall
  2. Nail Yakupov
  3. Ryan Smyth
  4. Ben Eager
  5. Darcy Hordichuk
  6. Teemu Hartikainen

RIGHT WING

  1. Ales Hemsky
  2. Jordan Eberle
  3. Ryan Jones
  4. Lennart Petrell
  5. Magnus Paajarvi

Schultz is certain to win a job and I think Danis does too unless the Oilers make a quick post lockout move. After that, it’s my opinion that Eager and Petrell are vulnerable (for different reasons) and that should mean Hartikainen and Paajarvi get a shot.

I wonder if the Oilers consider running Hartikainen in the top 6F (say on a Nuge-Ebs line) and then have Hall with Gagner and Hemsky? That might mean a Horcoff-Smyth-Yakupov line which would ruin Woodguy’s Christmas but might give the big Finn a chance to establish himself.

What say you? Lines and pairings any different than September?

 

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53 Responses to "HEAVEN"

  1. Ontarioil says:

    Harski – Nuge – Ebs (Softs)
    Hall – Gagner – Hemsky (Strength v Strength)
    Yak – Horcov – MPS
    Smyth – Belanger – Jones (Shutdown)
    Hordichuck

    Smid – Petry
    Shultz -Shultz
    Whitney – Peckham
    Potter

    Dubnyk
    Danis

  2. Lucinius says:

    Personally, I’d go with;

    Hall — RNH — Eberle
    Yak — Gagner — Hemsky
    Smyth — Horcoff — MPS
    Harski — Belanger — Jones
    Hordichuk/Eager

    With this set-up the center and right wing positions fairly locked into a pair and left wingers rotating as necessary (whether to switch things up, double shifting, jump starting something, etc.). While Hall might be better off on the ‘second’ line with Gagner and Hemsky given his capabilities I really think, from watching the KHL games, that Yak could see some chemistry with Hemsky given how both play the game.

    Also, I think MPS with Horcoff is a must. Give him a mentor for the defensive game to smooth out his few wrinkles there and maybe also give him some confidence that he can cheat for offense at times given his line-mates are capable of covering for him (instead of him feeling like he has to cheat for defense to cover his line mates). This line would get the shaft and a ton of defensive zone starts, but Horcoff is used to that and MPS being able to come into his own as a third line checking winger with some offensive upside (at the very least in terms of moving the puck the right way) would be a massive plus for the organization since the top six is fairly stacked with young, more talented wingers.

    I think Harski and Jones together would do well enough given their playstyles (with Harski eventually moving up to the ‘third’ line when Smyth retires).

    I’m not a big fan of Petrell so I would just let him stay in Finland, and would rotate in Eager/Hordichuk as necessary (rarely, basically).

    For the defense…

    Smid — Petry
    Schultz — Schultz
    Whitney — Sutton/Peckham/Potter/Tuebert/Fedun/bag of pucks

    Top pairing is a no brainer. Don’t mess with a good thing. Feed them proper top pairing minutes against the toughs. Second pairing gets slightly easier minutes and the elder Schultz can hopefully make up for the rookie mistakes the Younger will make while playing at being Coffey-lite. Third pairing is basically the remainder. If Whitney is healthy he may move up to pair with Schultz the Younger, but if not or the Schultz’s pair well, he gets easier minutes tutoring the up-and-comers and a more sedate environment. If he’s not healthy.. he’s probably still better than any other option we have there.

    Powerplays…

    1st. Hall — RNH — Eberle with Paajarvi and Schultz at the points.
    2nd Yakupov — Gagner — Hemsky with Petry and Whitney at the points (throw in Harski for Whitney if Whitney isn’t healthy and make him the net presence).

    Short handed…

    1st. Smyth — Horcoff // Smid — Petry
    2nd. Hall — RNH // N. Schultz — J. Shultz (pure chaos PK!)
    3rd. Eberle — Belanger // Whitney — Potter/Peckham/whomever.

    With Paajarvi rotated in occasionally for Smyth.

    of course none of this matters at all because half of the players listed above will have been struck dead by the plague and we’ll see shit like centers going Belanger // Lander // Vande Velde // MacT.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Licinius: I have the pairs Nuge-Ebs, Gagner-Hall and Horcoff-Yak. The Yakupov pairing is not ideal–obviously–but that’s probably short term.

  4. LMHF#1 says:

    With all the talk of turning Hall into a C, I sure wish they could do that to Teemu. He’d be what they’re missing at that spot. Hemsky and Yakupov with a physically imposing C would be outstanding.

  5. Woodguy says:

    I wonder if the Oilers consider running Hartikainen in the top 6F (say on a Nuge-Ebs line) and then have Hall with Gagner and Hemsky? That might mean a Horcoff-Smyth-Yakupov line which would ruin Woodguy’s Christmas but might give the big Finn a chance to establish himself.

    Smyth-RNH-Ebs would ruin my Christmas.

    That trio were severely out shot together. Smyth was much better away from the pair and the pair was much better away from Smyth.

    I actually don’t mind 94-10-Yak. Did I rail against it before?

  6. Lowetide says:

    WG: I don’t remember, just picked your name because you commented the last time we did this.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/07/opening-night-lineups-and-projecting-12-13.html

    After last night’s game, I’m back in Oiler lines mode. I think they have 6 splendid talents (Hall, Yak on Lw; Hemsky, Eberle on RW; Nuge, Gagner at C) and wonder how they’ll slot them in. It would be nice to have three scoring lines, but does Hartikainen have enough of a bat?

    That’s the wonder imo.

  7. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: but does Hartikainen have enough of a bat?

    That’s the wonder imo.

    Yes. Stop wondering.

  8. jp says:

    Yak-RNH-Eberle
    Hall-Gagner-Hemsky (likely the real 1st line)
    Smyth-Horcoff-Jones (boring, I know)
    Eager-Belanger-Hartikainen
    Hordichuk-VV-Petrell

    Smid-Petry
    Whitney-N.Schultz
    Peckham-J.Schultz
    Potter

    I love the idea of Paajarvi as a 3rd line winger, but I think he stays in OKC when the season starts. Hopefully his job eventually, but not yet. I think Harti will make the team though. Doubt it’s top 6, but he should rotate with Eager and Petrell (may be Jones too). When there are injuries or guys play like crap Harti or Paajarvi could move up.

  9. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: I don’t remember, just picked your name because you commented the last time we did this.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/07/opening-night-lineups-and-projecting-12-13.html

    I think you had it right in that 4,89,83 is your power v power line.

    Hall out shoots everyone and Hemsky has out shot toughs before, Gagner would be the weak link, but with such strong wings it could work.

    Harski-RNH-Ebs gets the soft treatment as much as possible and 70% OZS

    94-10-Yak would work.

    Gets heavy lifting as well.

    10 centered 14 and 4 in their rookie years and they actually out shot pretty tough comp.

    94-10 do the heavy lifting and Yak flees the zone as soon as the Oilers have possession.

    Leaves Petrell-Belanger-MPS as a non-horrible 4th line who can play real minutes, and you can sub in any top 6 winger + Yak into Petrell’s spot if you want to double shift and get a mis-match.

    Wait a minute…..Oilers’ icing a non-horrible 4th?

    Never happen.

  10. db7db7 says:

    I totally agree with LMHF. Try Teemu at Center and then trade Gagner in a package with say PRV for Halak. Then make sure Khabby never comes off LTIR.

    I want to see Nuge making passes to both Ebs and Yak.

    So:
    Yak-Nuge-Ebs
    Hall-Teemu-Hemmer
    Smyth-Horc-Jones (Checking line)
    Eager-Belanger-Hordi

    Smid-J. Schultz
    Whitney-Petry
    N.Schultz-Potter
    Peckham

    Halak
    Dubbey

  11. dessert1111 says:

    Hartikainen – RNH – Eberle
    Hall – Gagner – Yakupov
    Smyth – Horcoff – Hemsky
    Paajarvi – Belanger – Jones
    House, Hordichuk

    Most of the lines suggested above I think could work and I think this team will have a lot of options. Hartikainen could be on the first line or fourth line, Paajarvi and Jones both the third or fourth. I don’t think Petrell and Eager are better options than these guys anymore — I like House and would rather him as a 13th forward. He plays well defensively, doesn’t look bad offensively and excellent on the PK and can take draws. A pretty versatile 13th forward and it’s an older prospect so you’re not very worried about development. They want a fighter at guy 14 so that’s why Hordichuk stays, but that guy could be someone like Dane Byers too. I like Yakupov better as a top 6 option, and I think you can throw Hartikainen to the fourth line, bring Hemsky up to the 2nd and move either Hall or Yakupov to line 1. If Hartikainen is in the top 6 though I think Hemsky is a better option than Yakupov to play on the third line. If Belanger plays well this could be a really solid forward group, and if not you got House VandeVelde and Lander or a trade.

  12. stevezie says:

    There’s an old Woodguy quote that sums my thoughts up nicely,

    “I think you had it right in that 4,89,83 is your power v power line.

    Hall out shoots everyone and Hemsky has out shot toughs before, Gagner would be the weak link, but with such strong wings it could work.

    Harski-RNH-Ebs gets the soft treatment as much as possible and 70% OZS

    94-10-Yak would work.

    Gets heavy lifting as well.

    10 centered 14 and 4 in their rookie years and they actually out shot pretty tough comp.

    94-10 do the heavy lifting and Yak flees the zone as soon as the Oilers have possession.

    Leaves Petrell-Belanger-MPS as a non-horrible 4th line who can play real minutes, and you can sub in any top 6 winger + Yak into Petrell’s spot if you want to double shift and get a mis-match.

    Wait a minute…..Oilers’ icing a non-horrible 4th?

    Never happen.”

    Succinct, yet precise.

  13. Marc says:

    When contemplating Oilers lineups for this season, it’s worth considering that there’s a good chance that Horcoff won’t be on the team.

    Matty has set out the cap problems the Oilers will be facing next season if the cap drops to $60M as expected (http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/11/08/if-salary-cap-drops-to-60-million-next-year-then-what/).

    Larry Brooks of the NY Post has noted that some sort of amnesty provision is on the table (https://twitter.com/NYP_Brooksie/status/266326714379030529).

    As it stands, the Oilers have have $48.45 million committed to 14 players, with Sam Gagner, Teemu Hartikainen and Theo Peckham restricted free-agents and Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid, Ryan Jones, Andy Sutton, Lennart Petrell, Darcy Hordichuk and Nikolai Khabibulin UFA’s. So they’d have $11.55 million to sign approximately 10 players, including Gagner, Hartikainen, Smid and maybe Whitney.

    If they amnesty Horcoff though, they’ll have a more manageable $17M to work with.

    You may want to get started on that ‘Sail on Michigan State Spartan’ post…

  14. Lowetide says:

    Okay, and I know this is going to go downhill in a hurry, but if you do buy out Horcoff which center is going to do the heavy lifting?

  15. spoiler says:

    Tambellini has mumbled enough times now that they’re in the market for an NHL defenseman. Then we get the trade rumour over the Marconi from Katz’ paid man.

    They have built enough expectation now that the optics will be bad if there’s no deal made.

    There must be something in the works. And Subban seems a reasonable guess given he’s un-signed. But I shudder to think how the Habs are going to fleece us on the trade. My worry is the 2013 #1 is going the other way when we seem to be looking at the deepest draft in ten years (and maybe longer).

    Still, that Defense depth chart should look better onc a trade is made–if there isn’t too much D going the other way.

  16. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Okay, and I know this is going to go downhill in a hurry, but if you do buy outHorcoff which center is going to do the heavy lifting?

    Who else could you buy out that would have a significant impact?

    Matheson has identified huge problems with the cap at 60 million but its likely going to be even lower….around 57 million.

  17. Marc says:

    Lowetide,

    Probably Belanger.

  18. spoiler says:

    I would like to see the Oil try out that PK system we saw in the Junior game the other night:

    1F and 2Ds stand up the play at the blueline. They either force a turnover or a chip in.

    Behind them the other F is playing sweeper in the mid-slot. Being the closest guy to the puck, he skates over to the wall or corner and quickly fires it out of the zone. If the other F, at the top of the diamond, can be sure of the clearing attempt, he can often be first on the puck, or force the goalie to leave his crease and play it.

    Don’t know why no one has thought of this system before. It looks very effective at the Junior level. And I can’t really think of a counter other than always chipping to the sweepers backhand and doubling up along that wall, which, needless to say, isn’t exactly a high percentage strategy for a PP offense.

    As to the PP, Krueger made some comments in a recent interview about his viewings of Yak in the KHL:

    Krueger admits that in following Justin Schultz and Yakupov he can’t help but be thinking of the Oilers power play. He took over coaching the Oilers power play last year as an associate coach under Tom Renney last year and moved it from near-worst to near-first in the league, the Oilers ending up third at 20.6% after being 27th at 14.5% the year before.

    You’d figure he’d have Schultz and Nugent-Hopkins pencilled in on the points with Jordan Eberle, Hall and Yakupov up front. But Krueger says he’s not thinking one power play but two.

    “I think a good team in the NHL needs two groups firing.

    “I think Justin on the right side and Nugent-Hopkins on the left is a pretty good foundation for the power play on the back. I’m thinking Nail more as the scorer with Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner. Nail is definitely a shooter. And I see Eberle as kind of like the clean-up man in baseball on the other unit.”

  19. stevezie says:

    spoiler,

    Subban is good enough that I would trade a #1 for him even if you magically guarenteed me that my pick would play at least 400 games. So will Subban, and he is right now a very good NHL player, who is within sight of being an all-star (imo, obviously).

    I think for salary cap/we-don’t-have-that-much-depth-to-spare reasons you could argue we’d be better off trading less for a Sekera-type player. While we lack a force at the top I think our defence’s biggest problem is our soft bottom. A good second pairing guy would go almost as far as a number one.

    And if Whitney gets healthy…

  20. Marc says:

    DSF:
    Matheson has identified huge problems with the cap at 60 million but its likely going tobe even lower….around 57 million.

    Vancouver has $55M committed to 13 players next season. Whatever cap problems Edmonton might have pale in comparison to Vancouver’s

  21. stevezie says:

    spoiler,

    Like let’s say the draft is just as good as 2003, which would be a stretch, wouldn’t Subban be in the top ten of that historic 1st round? Lists may vary, but he’s definitely top fifteen, and a sure thing. I make that trade.

  22. Marc says:

    The lack of center depth is why I’m hoping that the ‘wow’ trade is Gagner+ for Marleau. He would allow for 2 PVP lines, with Belanger centering Smyth (and MPS?) in a outscoring checking line that wouldn’t face the big boys, and VDV/Lander centering the fourth line (with Pitlick and Petrell?).

  23. spoiler says:

    stevezie:
    spoiler,

    Like let’s say the draft is just as good as 2003, which would be a stretch, wouldn’t Subban be in the top ten of that historic 1st round? Lists may vary, but he’s definitely top fifteen, and a sure thing. I make that trade.

    The problem is that the deal probably involves more than the 1st. Would you be okay if it is say 1st, Paajarvi and Whtney? That leaves us with continued depth problems on D, adds the loss of a very good 3rd line prospect to losing that 1st.

    And they are talking about this draft in 2003 terms. It’s early days yet, but reports have Red Line with 8 players in the top 5. I’d much rather trade the 2013 2nd and the 2014 1st over the 2013 1st.

    If we could limit the trade to players or players and a 2nd, I’d be far far happier, as long as we don’t have to trade one of our actual NHL Dmen. But I think that’s wishful thinking.

  24. DSF says:

    Marc: Vancouver has $55M committed to 13 players next season.Whatever cap problems Edmonton might have pale in comparison to Vancouver’s

    Not really…if we assume a Luongo trade and a Ballard buyout, the Canucks shed $10M in salary overnight.

    Obviously they’ll need cheap replacements for those two but Eddie Lack is only at $750K and Tanev is available.

    I would think they may have a problem fitting Edler under the cap on a new contract so will have t find a couple of cheap bottom pairing guys.

    The Oilers meanwhile will have only the Schultz brothers, Petry and Potter under contract on D so they’ll really have to hope one of the other young guys can step up quickly.

  25. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide:
    Okay, and I know this is going to go downhill in a hurry, but if you do buy outHorcoff which center is going to do the heavy lifting?

    Well the answer is Scott Gomez,of course..:)

    If they are serious about winning hockey games they can make something work-buying out Horcoff and signing a Langkow/Arnott type for 1 year might be something that is available to them.

  26. OilClog says:

    Horcoff ending up in Michigan makes sense

    What would the possible buy out list across the league look like?

    who being bought out elsewhere could the Oilers add to replace a Horcoff buy out?

    if only Hall was a C

    Yak, Hall, Hemsky
    Teemu, RNH, Ebs
    Smyth, Horc, Jones
    Omark :), Belanger, MPS

    Smid Petry
    Schultz Schultz
    Whitney Peckham

    Dub
    Danis

  27. spoiler says:

    OilClog: Horcoff ending up in Michigan makes senseWhat would the possible buy out list across the league look like?who being bought out elsewhere could the Oilers add to replace a Horcoff buy out?if only Hall was a CYak, Hall, HemskyTeemu, RNH, EbsSmyth, Horc, JonesOmark , Belanger, MPSSmid PetrySchultz SchultzWhitney PeckhamDubDanis

    Gagner?

  28. gogliano says:

    I’d buy out Shawn Horcoff and then sign Shawn Horcoff to do the heavy lifting.

  29. stevezie says:

    spoiler,

    No. I would call that an overpay, and I don’t have any interest in trades which simply shuffle our weaknesses.
    I know it would help if Gagner became Marleau or Whitney became Subban, but to my ignorant eye what really holds the Oilers back isn’t that our good players aren’t good enough, it’s that we dn’t have enough of them. I think this means we are going to have to trade picks and prospects (and include our castoffs to make room for the incoming.)
    Maybe this deal ain’t out there, but it’s the one I want, I don’t mind if we don’t get an all-star in return, but the time has come to add to our roster without subtracting from it. Injuries always happen!

  30. Traktor says:

    Shawn Horcoff is a heavy lifter the same way NK is a #1 goalie.

    If you can get a mulligan on that contract then you take it.

    We have a hole at center either way.

  31. spoiler says:

    stevezie:
    spoiler,

    No. I would call that an overpay, and I don’t have any interest in trades which simply shuffle our weaknesses.
    I know it would help if Gagner became Marleau or Whitney became Subban, but to my ignorant eye what really holds the Oilers back isn’t that our good players aren’t good enough, it’s that we dn’t have enough of them. I think this means we are going to have to trade picks and prospects (and include our castoffs to make room for the incoming.)
    Maybe this deal ain’t out there, but it’s the one I want, I don’t mind if we don’t get an all-star in return, but the time has come to add to our roster without subtracting from it. Injuries always happen!

    I would put it a little differently… We don’t have enough talented experience. If Whitney, Horc, Smyth and Hemsky became themselves of yore, it would be different, but that’s a lot to ask of 3 of those players. That’s the problem with drought for a generation… There isn’t any goodies in the cupboard when the new crop comes along.

  32. Lowetide says:

    I like that talented experience line. Perfect fit for the Oilers. More Smid’s please!

  33. fuzzy muppet says:

    DSF,

    If the cap drops that far, what team in their right mind is going to trade for loungo and his cap hit???

  34. rich says:

    fuzzy muppet: DSF, If the cap drops that far, what team in their right mind is going to trade for loungo and his cap hit???

    Would also suggest that it’s not as if Van is not going to have to take salary back to unload that contract so they might buy themselves some room…but not much Of course, that was conveniently ignored.

    But let’s go back to the Oilers. Horc is a obvious buyout…but you have no one to play that slot. Belanger is not capable of stepping in and play the 3C role, so maybe they buy out Belanger’s last year…assuming there is no season this year?

  35. PerryK says:

    Woodguy,

    I like your line-up a lot! It has the distinct advantage of leaving Ryan Jones off the roster!

  36. sliderule says:

    After reading McKenzies take on the CBA negotiations you might as well shut this site and other NHL blogs until next fall.

    He gives the best explanation I have read of were the two sides sit on the issues.Unless the NHL caves the season is over as Fehr has the players in his pocket.

    As the schedule gets cancelled the NHL will harden their position..Much like the last time the pa will make some last minute concessions but the owners at that point will figure they might as well try to break them.

    Fehr has the players convinced that principle is more important than getting paid.

    We will see how that sits with them next summer.

  37. DSF says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    DSF,

    If the cap drops that far, what team in their right mind is going to trade for loungo and his cap hit???

    Toronto.

    Luongos cap hit is only 5.3 million.

    Burke gets most of that back by buying out Komisarek.

  38. danny says:

    DSF,

    That’s assuming Lou would accept a trade to TOR. He clearly snuffed that notion for a trade to FLA last ssason.

    If anytjing Lou has a guaranteed contrqct with a NMC, and a team desperate to shed salary. I dont see VAN faring well on this situation IMO.

  39. Reg Dunlop says:

    An objective look at the oil’s projected line-up is frightening. 1 unproven goalie, one washed up goalie and 1 AHL calibre goalie. Maybe 4 NHL defencemen, best case scenario is 5 NHLers if Whitney regains his ability to skate and JS isn’t a mirage. Forwards look ok but a little small.
    The goaltending is of most concern. Thats why I can’t see any reason why Vancouver would dump Luongo and pin its hopes to an unproven Schneider and an AHL Lack. An acceptable situation if you are rebuilding, but if you have championship aspirations, and a narrowing window of opportunity like the canucks, I just don’t get it. Dump a salary like Edler’s if you have to but running suspect goalies gives you no chance to win Stanley. There must be a tender comming back in any Luongo deal someone like, maybe, MVPKhabbi.

  40. oilersfan says:

    The PA and Fehr reminds me of a guy who hires a has been realtor to sell his house in March. The house in 2007 was worth $550,000 so he tries to list it there. There are no offers, but in June somebody offers$450,000, which is the going market price. The realtor advises the seller not to take that price, because it was once worth more. THen in November the seller takes the house off the market with no bid and lost the money he could have had at 450 plus the carrying cost of the mortgage and taxes.

    These players are absolute idiots. There is no bid. As in, nobody else is going to pay them 90% of what they are making now. maybe 5% could get a job in Russia paying more, the other 95% are getting bad advice from a realtor living in an economy that changed 5 years ago for the rest of most of our lives, and doesn’t get it.

    Once the players realize it, they are all out this seasons salary and wonder about the advice they got from their hard line advisor who told them to take zero% of their salary instead of 90%.

    Where are the people who care for these players? Their parents, their brothers, their best friends? Take the damn deal and play now with what the NHL is offering. You will win every time you negotiate a contract going forward.

    For God’s sakes a 10% salary cut, after not paying taxes and your agent is like a 4% real salary cut. They will barely notice it.

    Pretty sure they will notice the 100% cut they are experiencing.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Tony Hand. Legend.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Oilersfan: At some point you have to choose the hill to die on. If they go 50/50 this time, is it 40/60 next time?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyXHA7xiChc

  43. oilersfan says:

    Lowetide

    Sign a ten year deal as part of the 50-50 then let the next generation worry about it.

    I think a guy like Brian Lawton or Wayne Gretzky or both should come in and be advisors to the process. Lawton was on Gregors’ show a few weeks ago and said he thought 15 teams were losing money and that the entire notion that this is about greed is untrue. He said in Tampa they were paying 76% of their revenues to players.

    I know 5 teams make sinful money but if they give out $220 million per year in revenue sharing they won’t be.

    Lawton said he thought if you took the NHL as a whole, the $3.3billion in revenue, and subtracted all the costs he thought the aggregate of owners makes about 7% per year on their investment of over ten billion dollars. If you consider the risks the owners are taking and how much the bottom 5-10 teams lose, and the risk any of the teams that aren’t Boston, Toronto, NYR, Philly and MOnteal take (yes even Edmonton) take in investing $200 million on the team and the same amount again on the rink , one would expect more of a margin of safety than 7%, and more than a hoped for profit than 7% for the amount of capital and risk they are putting into it.

    Fehr is an ass, plain and simple. I think he is giving the players bad advice and if the season is cancelled every player will regret not taking the offer they are getting now. Roenick, Modano, etc all say they regret not taking the deal in December. WHere is Devan Dubnyk’s father and best friend”?? If he were my brother I would be screaming at him every day to take the current offer and get on with your life.

  44. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    The players brought in Fehr knowing what he brings to the table. Bettman’s authoritarian power in this process rivals any dictatorship. My stab in the dark is along LT’s hill to die on theme. The players are taking the hits here – no way around that – but the process matters.

    Everything that happens this time sets the stage for next and the players need some counterbalance to Bettman. So either they get some concessions or they will drag it out and put Bettman in the hotseat with the smaller markets. The deal was there to be made from day 1, but the bigger game at play cares not for the fans of today.

  45. DeadmanWaking says:

    oilersfan

    Do you accept a 10% salary reduction every seven years? Sound like a good plan? I didn’t think so.

    I’ve been meaning to post this link for a while, but never got around to it. Roger Noll was a varsity athlete at Cal Tech (basketball), got a PhD in economics, and is now a central figure in the Stanford athletics program. He knows some shit. From the blurb:

    Noll discusses the economic effects of stadium subsidies, the labor market for athletes, the business side of college sports, competitive balance in sports leagues, safety in sports, performance-enhancing drugs, and how the role of sports in the lives of children has changed.

    Roger Noll on the Economics of Sports

    Here’s a sample from the transcript:

    An arena that has multiple uses–say, it’s going to have a basketball team and/or a hockey team, has other potential uses, like concerts and tractor-pulls, all kinds of stuff. And so a well-managed arena can be occupied 250-300 nights a year. And they can break even. And indeed, I don’t think there are very many cities out there who regret having built an arena, unless the city next door also builds one. And then you have two that are half occupied. So, you can’t really argue vociferously against building an arena. Baseball and football stadiums, however–there aren’t any that have been substantially subsidized where the local community has received anything remotely resembling a reasonable return on investment. They are financial black holes. Especially football stadiums.

    The first twenty odd minutes are superb, but it does taper off, so bail out if you get bored. The key points are the historic norms in player vs league salary and the the bizarre state of affairs that the league loves the player’s union while the players themselves actually hate it, due to a small quirk in the nature of antitrust laws.

    He says that the median athlete in one of these disputes has about two years left in their career at high earning power. A one year stoppage hurts these players enormously. He also says that due to capital gains laws, the ownership tends to cycle so that every seven years, a new crop of hard driving business man comes along to prove he’s better able to grind the union than the last batch of bastards. He says it never works out that way. The union tends to make short term concessions to break the logjam, but it ends up being just as expensive for the league by the time the next lockout opportunity comes along.

    Hells bells, a savory lockout opportunity doesn’t come along every day. Hard candy! Suck or chew? Mostly they suck. Usually a whole lot of suck.

  46. Marc says:

    DSF: Toronto.

    Luongos cap hit is only 5.3 million.

    Burke getsmost of that back by buying out Komisarek.

    If Luongo went for picks (which isn’t going to happen), Gillis would have $10M to pay 11 players – so basically just over league minimum for each of them. More likely he’ll get a player or two back (say Rynnas and Aulie), and have around $6-$7M to get 9 players under contract.

    I’m sure you’ll agree, that whatever mild discomfort the lowered cap causes Edmonton, Vancouver’s situation is far, far worse

  47. Marc says:

    And that’s assuming a $60M cap.

    If, as you suggest, the actual cap is going to be $57M, then Vancouver is in even more trouble.

  48. DSF says:

    danny:
    DSF,

    That’s assuming Lou would accept a trade to TOR. He clearly snuffed that notion for a trade to FLA last ssason.

    If anytjing Lou has a guaranteed contrqct with a NMC, and a team desperate to shed salary.I dont see VAN faring well on this situation IMO.

    Luongo has made it pretty clear he’s ready to move and the 3 teams said to have made offers are Toronto, Florida and Edmonton.

    My best guess is Toronto with Kulemin being the return.

    Gillis apparently wants Bjugstad out of Florida and Tallon balked at that.

    No idea what the Oilers would send the other way.

  49. russ99 says:

    Depending on what trades are made before the (if we have a) season.

    I still like the idea of Hall at center, especially if we can move Horcoff.

  50. DSF says:

    Marc: If Luongo went for picks (which isn’t going to happen), Gillis would have $10M to pay 11 players – so basically just over league minimum for each of them.More likely he’ll get a player or two back (say Rynnas and Aulie), and have around $6-$7M to get 9 players under contract.

    I’m sure you’ll agree, that whatever mild discomfort the lowered cap causes Edmonton, Vancouver’s situation is far, far worse

    I think you need to take a closer look at the Oilers situation.

    They have only 3 NHL defensemen under contract for the 13/14 season.

    As well, they have only Dubnyk under contract in goal and it’s still far from certain that he’s an NHL #1.

    Even then, if the cap is $57 million, they have only $9 million in cap space to sign 9 players.

    If they buy out Horcoff, that helps but adding an NHL goaltender, 4 NHL calibre defensemen and 2 NHL centres won’t be cheap..

    It appears that the Oilers are in better shape than the Canucks until you look at the quality of players under contract.

    For example, would you rather run with a defense of Hamhuis, Bieksa, Garrison and Tanev or Shultz, Shultz and Petry?

    One would assume the Oilers will re-sign Smid but, even so, I don’t think there’s much doubt, at this point, which group is superior.

    In goal, The Oilers have committed to Dubnyk while the Canucks have committed to Schneider. Schneider has outperformed Dubnyk at every level and his cap hit is only marginally higher.

    You can argue the kids will outperform the Sedins on the top line but, at this point, the Oilers don’t have an answer for Burrows, Kesler, Booth or Hansen who are all under contract for that season.

  51. db7db7 says:

    One of the biggest needs for this team is a big quality 2nd pairing Center. I truly believe that Harti is better suited to be that than Hall. Hall needs to be able to fly down the wing.

  52. VOR says:

    DSF,

    You know you make this way too easy.

    Tanev isn’t under contract for 2013-2014.

    Lets start off with the simple task of icing a full team in 2013-2014. We will assume that each team uses 20 men a game – 12 forwards, 6 D and 2 Goaltenders. Then we will use your cap limit of $57 Million dollars. Next we will assume the Canucks buy out Ballard and the Oilers buy out Horcoff.

    The Canucks would have $5.8 million dollars to pay 9 players – 1 – first or second line center, 2 – 2nd or third line forwards, 3 – 4th line forwards and 3 defencemen.

    Edmonton assuming the same conditions apply would have 14 million dollars to sign 7 players: 2 – third line players, 2- 4th line players, 2 D, and 1 goaltender.

    Vancouver is in a world of hurt if the cap actually drops that much. Even a trade Luongo for Kulemin doesn’t help the pain much they’d still need 9 players except now one would be a goaltender and they would have $8.3 Million. The Oilers would still have a striking advantage and a lot of cheap kids coming up.

    I’d say a sudden drop in the salary cap would pretty much kill the Canucks stone cold dead.

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