OKC V HOUSTON 2.11.12

The OKC Barons are leading the league in damn near everything, and Taylor Hall is on the way. I don’t know about you, but cheering for a winner feels very good!

Justin Schultz leads the league in points and was the player of the month for October. He also leads in points by a defenseman and points by a rookie. Schultz is tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals (2) and Colten Teubert leads in pims.

Taylor Hall steps onto AHL ice for the first time tonight, and if he plays the full season down there we should see some spectacular things. Hall’s presence should open up the ice on EV and PP sorties and one imagines the PP will be even more effective. I can’t wait to see Hall, Nuge, Eberle and Justin Schultz working together.

If you’ve been reading Eric Tulsky’s stuff, then you know the value of a player who can gain the zone under control is off the charts. Hall is such a player, and it’ll be interesting to see how many times this weekend (three games) the young man flies a sortie successfully into enemy territory. He’s going to be rusty, but he’s a gem.

Cameron Abney was called back up and I suspect he’s going to play a role this weekend and in the future. If you’re following along at home–and we all are–Abney is a prospect in that role. The Oilers have employed enforcer’s all down the line, and I think this management group sees having one as a benefit. The one positive I recall from the olden days is that it makes it easy to double shift the forward pair who are having a strong night.

Brandon Davidson is out, Teigan Zahn is the callup. He’s another big, tough player, so we can predict many pims and shorthanded situations during the weekend.

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133 Responses to "OKC V HOUSTON 2.11.12"

  1. Jesse says:

    I think that Eric Rogers might have tweeted that Hall is going to sit out Saturday’s contest, and not play back to back for a little while.

  2. commonfan14 says:

    Interesting that Hall wasn’t technically sent down but signed an AHL contract.

    Apologies if this has been discussed already, but is there anything preventing Dubnyk, Petry, Peckham, etc. from doing the same thing?

  3. justDOit says:

    commonfan14,

    Players still on their ELC are not waiver eligible, so that means Dubs, Petry and Peckham would have to clear waivers.

  4. Rocknrolla says:

    commonfan14,

    Was wondering the same? Is it only ELC players that can do that?

  5. Clay says:

    The only AHL stat for Hall I care about is his games lost to injury. That number staying at zero would be more exciting to me than seeing him score 50 goals.

  6. dessert1111 says:

    commonfan14:
    Interesting that Hall wasn’t technically sent down but signed an AHL contract.

    Apologies if this has been discussed already, but is there anything preventing Dubnyk, Petry, Peckham, etc. from doing the same thing?

    As far as I know, they are all free to sign contracts with the ECHL, which is kind of strange to me that they’d be allowed to do that but not allowed to sign AHL contracts without getting picked up by waivers. Actually, I’m not sure why some kind of rule wasn’t passed saying that no one has to clear waivers and can thus sign an AHL-only deal. Since the NHL is locked out right now, with no CBA, how can waiver rules be enforced anyway?

  7. justDOit says:

    dessert1111,

    That’s the thing I don’t understand, is how waivers can actually exist without a CBA. Maybe it’s not part of the CBA? Maybe waivers is part of the NHL rules?

    Maybe someone here can shed some light on that, but I believe the definition of ‘epic fail’ would be losing a player to waivers during the lockout.

  8. uni says:

    commonfan14: Interesting that Hall wasn’t technically sent down but signed an AHL contract.
    Apologies if this has been discussed already, but is there anything preventing Dubnyk, Petry, Peckham, etc. from doing the same thing?

    Hall was injured, and as such was not locked out. This means that until recently he was being paid his full NHL salary, and he could not be assigned to the AHL. Since the lockout occurred while he was on the IR, Hall must now sign a separate AHL only contract with the Barons in order to play with them.

    An interesting side note is that Hall was free to sign anywhere he chose to, but he instead decided to play with his buddy Eberle in the AHL of his own volition.

    Indeed any player assigned by the Oilers to the AHL up till the lockout would have been exposed to waivers.

  9. Frank Mullard says:

    Is there a good way to watch these games? I had a mostly frustrating experience with the AHL website and it was pretty poor quality once I got it up and running.

  10. PaperDesigner says:

    I seem to remember some chatter about the Oilers asking for the league to provide special exemption from waiver eligibility for Hall, since he was injured at the time of their temporary window that they opened to send players down.

  11. Moosemess says:

    Woodguy:
    Moosemess,

    It’s a perception that evaluates players weighted heavily towards what the player does solely when the puck is on his stick, whilst seemingly ignoring the impact that players can make in other areas like hitting the opposition, running a pick, screening the goaltender, redirecting shots, clearing the slot, forcing a bad pass on the forecheck, etc.

    I think its because its been shown that puck possession drives wins.

    When analyzing the tied or when the score is within 1 (i.e. 3-2), the team that has the most shots in these game states (best proxy we have for possession) are usually the best teams in the league with the greatest winning percentages.

    There are outliers (aren’t there always?), but it a pretty good predictor.

    If you could have 4 lines of players that drive possession and shots, you would, and you would dominate.

    Its near impossible to do that, so you supplement your possession players with players who can “hold their own” (i.e. not get killed) against the other teams better lines.

    Then for the rest of the players (usually 4th line) some teams ice large fists, some ice kids with possession potential, some ice place markers.

    The bias towards possession players is because they are the ones who drive winning and the toughest to find, and most expensive to pay.

    “Hold their own” players are much easier to find (unless you are Tambellini) and cheaper to pay (unless you are Kevin Lowe)

    If shots are the best indicators of puck possession, how do we account for shots that result immediately as the result of a turnover? The possession here is minimal (often less than a split second) and shots from forced turnovers are quite possibly the ones resulting in the greatest percentage of goals.

    If you’re going to make the argument that puck possession is the magic bullet for winning teams and that puck possession is directly tied to stickhandling and passing, then I should think you would focus on the importance of shots generated off the rush as those are the ones directly created from those skills so highly valued with the ‘puck carrier’ bias. Possibly there is evidence to support a correlation between those teams scoring the most goals off the rush having the greatest winning percentage?

    Conversely, we’ve all seen teams exceedingly skilled at passing the puck around the periphery of the zone (i.e dominating puck possession) before finally achieving an easily saved shot from an unscreened goaltender. With that in mind, it seems ‘quality of the shot’ rather than the poor total shots proxy is the magic bullet and how that is defined and quantifed remains elusive.

    We’ve also seen teams win a lot of games with a goalie on a hot streak. The team in front of them may in fact be quite mediocre in terms of puck possession and the shot totals reflect this with a decided advantage for the other side and yet the team with the top tender wins. Seems that this ‘dominant’ player has a greater impact on wins than your puck possession theory in that instance?

    In reality, a great percentage of goals are created after the initial rush breaks down and the teams then battle for possession in the defensive zone. Granted, once possesion is re-established by the offensive side, this sets the table for a chance on goal, but regaining possession is precisely the time at which time those skills derided by the puck carrier bias are most critical as re-establishing possession on the cycle often involves more physicality than fancy stickhandling.

    The language used “it’s been shown, I think it’s because, etc.” is revealing. We know these stats aren’t foolproof AND we know a fluid decision sport like hockey has yet to yield the bulletproof stats like baseball to make these unequivocal statements and yet the behavior persists with these conclusions trotted out like trump cards with LT then scoring it a win. lol

    This belief that the puck possession proxy is bulletproof reminds me of the same myth that was clung to in the NFL for same many years. A correlation was shown between time of possession and team wins, and given the clock continues to run during running plays ending inbounds, NFL coaches thus clung to the belief that the best formula for winning was a strong running game. We know now that time of possession is not nearly as an important factor as is scoring efficiency and that an efficient passing game can achieve equal or greater scoring efficiency than a power running game. The game thus evolves as the myths are dispelled.

    Finally, I’m not making the argument for the value of ‘hold your own’ players. I’m making an argument that drafting ‘dominant’ defensive players is a sound strategy as opposed to acquiring them via other means, and often these players are given short shrift in the draft.

  12. Kris11 says:

    “This belief that the puck possession proxy is bulletproof.”

    Nobody says “bullet proof.” (Past performance is never a “bullet proof” guide for future behavior, in any field.)

    Shot totals are a reliable (not bulletproof, nothing is bulletproof in the predicting business) predictor of wins over the long run. RelCorsi, correlated with zonestarts and qual. of comp and team (as we had in the Vollman Graph) is a reliable (not bulletproof) measure of a players’ contribution to the success of his team (read wins) and is a reliable predictor of how the player will play in the future, barring injury and the effects of age.

    See the Vollman graph here: http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/07/sledgehammer-3.html

    Here’s a good explanation of how outshooting is based on the “skills” and qualities of players on a team while shooting percentage is virtually random at the team level. http://oilersnation.com/2011/11/9/can-teams-win-by-taking-higher-quality-shots

    This post by Jlikens is really solid. It shows that outshooting at EV’s, especially when the score is tied (to eliminate for game effects like when one team is up by 3, playing “prevent defense”, letting the other team shoot away), is highly correlated with outscoring and therefore winning. http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/01/even-strength-outshooting-and-team.html

    The overall correlation between outshooting (not just at ES) and winning is positive but pretty weak, largely because there is so much noise in that data, even over the long term: game effects on shots, powerplay shooting rates, the effect of the loser point, etc.

  13. wunderbar says:

    The answer to why Hall had to, and was able to sign an AHL contract is long but simple.

    Players could only be assigned to the AHL before the date the lockout began. After that no player transactions were allowed. Since he was injured he could not be assigned there.

    All ELC’s are two way deals, hence why Nuge/Eberle etc could be assigned without waivers. For players like DD and Petry they would have been subject to waivers being sent down before the lockout and could have been picked up by anyone.

    The NHL and NHLPA struck a deal before the lockout that allowed players who had either: A) played in the AHL last year, or B) on an ELC last year to sign an AHL specific contract for the lockout, allowing them to play in the AHL.

    So while Hall can’t be assigned to the Barons roster by the oilers because as soon as he came off the IR he became locked out, he became eligible to sign an AHL contract because of his ELC.

    IT’s also an interesting dynamic because technically pretty much every player of note on the Barons’ roster *except* Hall is playing on an Oilers contract.

    But yea, long winded answer, but not complicated when you connect the dots.

  14. commonfan14 says:

    PaperDesigner: I seem to remember some chatter about the Oilers asking for the league to provide special exemption from waiver eligibility for Hall, since he was injured at the time of their temporary window that they opened to send players down.

    I recall that as well, but haven’t seen any specific details on how it got resolved. Still seems weird that a player on a two-way contract can sign a separate AHL-only contract. Let’s just hope that whatever arrangements were made are completely air-tight.

    In a scenario where Hall got claimed by Columbus, would there be 1000 comments on LT’s “Sail on, Windsor Spitfire” post, or 0 because we’d all either have heart attacks or be en route to Oilers HQ with torches and pitch forks?

    EDIT: Thanks for that, WUNDERBAR

  15. Jesse says:

    Moosemess: If shots are the best indicators of puck possession, how do we account for shots that result immediately as the result of a turnover? The possession here is minimal (often less than a split second) and shots from forced turnovers are quite possibly the ones resulting in the greatest percentage of goals. </PWe’ve also seen teams win a lot of games with a goalie on a hot streak. The team in front of them may in fact be quite mediocre in terms of puck possession and the shot totals reflect this with a decided advantage for the other side and yet the team with the top tender wins. Seems that this ‘dominant’ player has a greater impact on wins than your puck possession theory in that instance?

    Your claim that “shots from forced turnovers are quite possibly the ones resulting in the greatest percentage of goals” seems to be quite subjective. Where are you getting this from? In my own humble opinion, goals resulting from forced turnovers are in the minority.

    In regards to goalies on a hot streak. Again, this seems to be a claim based on something that is an unusual occurrence, hence why it is reffered to as a “streak”. If you look at teams that must rely on hot goalies, they’re usually poorer teams that need to rely on their hot goalies in order to do well (eg. EDM with Khabibulin’s streak last fall; CGY in their annual playoff push). A hot goalie winning a game is not an indication of a good team, it’s an indication of a good player. A team that retains possession naturally generates more opportunity for shots, which means more opportunity for goals. This is why (obviously) that power plays are so advantageous: they allow for most possession time, and therefore more opportunity for shots.

  16. RickDeckard says:

    Moosemess,

    There is a strong chance I misunderstand corsi etc. so this might be wrong.

    If a team is holding the offense to the outside and not allowing any shots, then that means that they are disrupting the possession of the offense. Corsi assumes that all players have NHL level shots and NHL level decision making about when to take those shots. If those NHL players aren’t finding chances to use their shots, then they don’t have good possession. Most corsi type stats are per 60, meaning that a long period of time spent passing without shooting is detrimental. That cuts both ways though, so holding onto the puck in the offensive zone represents a form of domination. A turnover that leads to a breakaway/quick shot is valuable because it quickly creates strong possession.

    As for goalie hot streaks, that is analyzed through PDO. It has been found that teams rarely sustain PDOs distant from 1000 over a period of seasons. This is due to the natural tendency of teams to improve themselves. If a team has poor goaltending then they try to improve it. Some teams, like the Bruins or Canucks have great goaltending, leading to higher than 1000 PDOs multiple seasons. The Wild are the go to team for that this year. They had their hot start primarily due to their excellent goaltending, before it fell back to Earth. The Oilers had a similar situation at the start of the year.

    Overall, it seems you disagree with a strawman, not the actual stats. The stats don’t care how you get the puck on your stick, it doesn’t even care that you shoot it, only that more shots are against the opponent’s net than your net. I believe that a team of 6’6″ speed skaters with great puck handling skills and that love to hit would be the best team on Earth. The problem lies in the fact that those players are very rare. So when you have to start choosing which skills a player needs, you have to consider which ones allow a player to influence the game the most.

    Since this is probably sparked by him, the reason most people don’t like the Moroz pick at 32 is he hasn’t been noticeably better than his peers. It is rare that a player that is a passenger in junior becomes a valuable NHLer. Is Moroz a passenger? Perhaps. shot data doesn’t exist for the WHL so maybe Moroz is a possession beast with a poor PDO. Perhaps Moroz is a late bloomer.

    But probably not.

  17. RexLibris says:

    Last night’s Abbotsford Heat game had them taking 9 penalties. From the looks of it they had a pretty rough game with a lot of physical play. Abney, Teubert, Zahn, and Byers could be busy.

    November 10th could be a very good night for the Barons powerplay if they repeat that effort.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Projected lineups:

    Projected: Hartikainen-Arcobello-Eberle, Hall-VandeVelde-Paajarvi, Pitlick-Martindale-Tyrvainen, Byers-House-Abney

    D-Pairs: Schultz/Marincin, Teubert/Zahn, Plante/Fedun. Danis in net

  19. stevezie says:

    RexLibris,

    Assuming the poor dears aren’t all tuckered out.

  20. commonfan14 says:

    Jesse: Your claim that “shots from forced turnovers are quite possibly the ones resulting in the greatest percentage of goals” seems to be quite subjective. Where are you getting this from? In my own humble opinion, goals resulting from forced turnovers are in the minority.

    Sounded to me like Moosemess was saying that shots from forced turnovers seem to result in goals more often than any other kind of shot, not that those shots account for most goals scored in games overall.

    I’ve always thought that as well, but have never seen anything to prove it.

  21. Truth says:

    Lowetide,

    So they are going to sit one of RNH, Hall, and Eberle per game this weekend? Makes sense I suppose.

  22. Moosemess says:

    commonfan14: Sounded to me like Moosemess was saying that shots from forced turnovers seem to result in goals more often than any other kind of shot, not that those shots account for most goals scored in games overall.

    I’ve always thought that as well, but have never seen anything to prove it.

    Yep, that’s what I meant. Could’ve written it with more clarity. Thanks for penetrating the obfuscation ; )

    It’s a hypothesis for consideration, nothing more. Would love to see some analysis of this, but as with all things hockey stat related, it would be subject to much interpretation and debate in terms of defining the appropriate metrics for analysis.

  23. Moosemess says:

    Kris11:
    “This belief that the puck possession proxy is bulletproof.”

    Here’s a good explanation of how outshooting is based on the “skills” and qualities of players on a team while shooting percentage is virtuallyrandom at the team level. http://oilersnation.com/2011/11/9/can-teams-win-by-taking-higher-quality-shots

    Thanks, interesting articles. Found this post in the comments of merit.
    Clyde Frog…

    Willis, I appreciate what you try to do with adding statistics to Hockey, but you really need to post your Descriptive Statistics and regression tests on known years to demonstrate causation along with correlation.

    Have you stat buffs been doing that stuff for all the popular measures?

    Please don’t take this post as a jump down anyones throat, just trying to understand what is going on behind the claims.

    I understand how baseball statistical analysis works, but thats because you can break down 95% of interactions into a single interaction between player and measurement. Hockey is a much tougher bird to look at because there are 9 other players on the ice, different systems, 2 referees and a whole host of other factors that go into a single play. (Outside of shootout attempts)

  24. Moosemess says:

    RickDeckard:
    Moosemess,

    Overall, it seems you disagree with a strawman, not the actual stats.

    Good post and yes, the above is an accurate statement.

    A statistic is a tool and like any tool, it’s usefulness is based on A) The direct applicability and the utility of the tool to perform the task required of it & B) The skill of the person wielding it.

    Baseball yields many stats/tools of the A variety. Hockey not so much. Hockey stats can thus be illuminating, contribute to interesting debate, and provide us with an increased understanding of the game. But their ultimate effectiveness is blunted by the fact that the decision fluidity and resultant randomness of hockey does not lend itself to bulletproof quantification to nearly the same extent as baseball.

    Outshooting is an interesting theory because we’ve literally come full circle on this topic in the last 40 years. NHL hockey powers were convinced of the validity of this theory entering the 70′s until the Soviet national team demonstrated that an emphasis on puck possession to achieve shot quality rather than spraying pucks willy nilly at the net was an effective tactic.

    The NHL evolved to incorporate a greater emphasis on puck possession and you could argue that style of play reached its apex with the Oilers dynasty of the 80′s we all loved so much.

    Enter the NJ Devils and the trap and suddenly you didn’t need to force possession with an aggressive forecheck to win games. Rather, you could clog the middle of the ice to force timely turnovers and then capitalize on them. This is conjunction with a dominant goaltender was a supremely effective recipe for success, albeit not a very tasty one, until the lockout before this one (sad that we have to clarify this language with multiple lockouts now).

    The goaltender in fact has and always will be the X-factor as from Tretiak to Quick, history has shown us that one dominant athlete playing the most important position in the game can overcome the law of averages and lead his team to victory.

    Which brings me to my final point that acquiring and utilizing dominant players is really the only thing that matters and what form that dominance takes is highly subjective and difficult to quantify. Passing is one skill (or tool if you will), not the only one.

  25. OilLeak says:

    Lowetide:
    Projected lineups:

    Projected: Hartikainen-Arcobello-Eberle, Hall-VandeVelde-Paajarvi, Pitlick-Martindale-Tyrvainen, Byers-House-Abney

    D-Pairs: Schultz/Marincin, Teubert/Zahn, Plante/Fedun. Danis in net

    Interesting that Nelson is sitting the Nuge tonight considering how the Aeros schooled the Barons in their last meeting, could use the extra fire power. I guess the rest of the players need ice time as well, and risk of injury is always greater when playing 3 consecutive games so no reason to take that risk with the stars.

    Nuge sits tonight, Hall sits on Saturday, so perhaps Eberle sits on Sunday?

  26. Woodguy says:

    Moosemess,

    Outshooting is an interesting theory because we’ve literally come full circle on this topic in the last 40 years. NHL hockey powers were convinced of the validity of this theory entering the 70′s until the Soviet national team demonstrated that an emphasis on puck possession to achieve shot quality rather than spraying pucks willy nilly at the net was an effective tactic.

    You said ” until the Soviet national team demonstrated that an emphasis on puck possession to achieve shot quality rather than spraying pucks willy nilly at the net was an effective tactic. ”

    I think you are putting a lot of assumptions on why the Soviets were doing what they were doing.

    Where did you read/hear that they played like they did to get “high quality shot” and not “spray”?

    From what I’ve read/heard their philosophy was basically “If we have they puck, they cannot score” and were loathe to give up possession at any time..

    Id be interested to read your source of information where they were after shot quality.

  27. Bails14 says:

    How did Schultz win player of the month, but not get rookie of the month?

  28. delooper says:

    Probably because the point of awards is to draw attention to people. Schultz has plenty of attention.

  29. Moosemess says:

    Woodguy:
    Moosemess,

    Outshooting is an interesting theory because we’ve literally come full circle on this topic in the last 40 years. NHL hockey powers were convinced of the validity of this theory entering the 70′s until the Soviet national team demonstrated that an emphasis on puck possession to achieve shot quality rather than spraying pucks willy nilly at the net was an effective tactic.

    You said ” until the Soviet national team demonstrated that an emphasis on puck possession to achieve shot quality rather than spraying pucks willy nilly at the net was an effective tactic. ”

    I think you are putting a lot of assumptions on why the Soviets were doing what they were doing.

    Where did you read/hear that they played like they did to get “high quality shot” and not “spray”?

    From what I’ve read/heard their philosophy was basically “If we have they puck, they cannot score” and were loathe to give up possession at any time..

    Id be interested to read your source of information where they were after shot quality.

    Google “anatoli tarasov strategy shot quality” or read his books, or better still watch that team play. Commentary on and evidence of this strategy abounds.

    You realize that USSR team did shoot the puck on occasion, right? They didn’t pass the puck for 59.9 minutes and only loathsomely give up possession when they could score on the last shot of the game.

    They passed the puck until they created an opening in a prime scoring location and were more often than not decidedly outshot in the contests they played against their NA opponents. It’s also interesting to note how over time the Soviets adapted their system based on their exposure to NA play, for instance adopting a greater reliance on screened point shots after assessing the effectiveness of these used against them in international play

    And yes, I am suggesting that what a team does in a game is an actual indicator of it’s strategy/predispositions. If it walks like a duck…

    Your tangential misdirection aside, I’m more curious to hear your thoughts on the actual points I raised in response to your post.

    Based on some of what we’re discussing today (i.e. the X factor of the dominant goalie), one could argue that a highly effective strategy to contend for the Cap would be to stockpile and allocate considerable resources to starting goaltending (almost along the lines of a baseball bullpen). In other words, if a Patrick Roy, JS Giguere or Jonathan Quick can have such a massive impact on a team’s ability to succeed in the postseason, why not lessen the emphasis and salary outlay on Top 6 forwards and focus resources instead on superior goaltending that can be rotated in to achieve the desired ‘hot hand’

    Baseball teams can only rely on their ace when his spot in the rotation comes up. Hockey teams can tilt the odds in their favour by ensuring they always have an ‘ace’ at their disposal.

    Unconventional? Yes, but I’m of the belief that conventional wisdom leads to conventional results.

  30. delooper says:

    Moosemess, would you say it’s conventional to believe that conventional wisdom leads to conventional results?

  31. jake70 says:

    wunderbar:
    The answer to why Hall had to, and was able to sign an AHL contract is long but simple.

    Players could only be assigned to the AHL before the date the lockout began. After that no player transactions were allowed.Since he was injured he could not be assigned there.

    All ELC’s are two way deals, hence why Nuge/Eberle etc could be assigned without waivers.For players like DD and Petry they would have been subject to waivers being sent down before the lockout and could have been picked up by anyone.

    The NHL and NHLPA struck a deal before the lockout that allowed players who had either: A) played in the AHL last year, or B) on an ELC last year to sign an AHL specific contract for the lockout, allowing them to play in the AHL.

    So while Hall can’t be assigned to the Barons roster by the oilers because as soon as he came off the IR he became locked out, he became eligible to sign an AHL contract because of his ELC.

    IT’s also an interesting dynamic because technically pretty much every player of note on the Barons’ roster *except* Hall is playing on an Oilers contract.

    But yea, long winded answer, but not complicated when you connect the dots.

    Well explained, thanks I was wondering some of this as well. My one question (maybe has been answered in previous threads) is how can Nugent-Hopkins play in AHL as an NHL ELC player as he is not yet 20…??? Is it because he has played X games in NHL already ….or did the Oil ask for an exception?

  32. Moosemess says:

    delooper:
    Moosemess, would you say it’s conventional to believe that conventional wisdom leads to conventional results?

    Not on this site.

  33. Kris11 says:

    Moose writes: ” if a Patrick Roy, JS Giguere or Jonathan Quick can have such a massive impact on a team’s ability to succeed in the postseason, why not”… spend cap space on the best two or three goalies?

    Huh?

    1. There are relatively few goalies who put up consistently great numbers.

    2. The goalies that do put up consistently great numbers are the most expensive pieces in a trade.

    3. If you have one great goalie, a Hasek, who stays healthy and can play 65-70 games, having 2 Haseks doesn’t help that much. Having 5 Haseks is dumb.

  34. delooper says:

    I wonder what kind of axiom system this forum uses to avoid Russell’s paradox.

  35. Kris11 says:

    “you really need to post your Descriptive Statistics and regression tests on known years to demonstrate causation along with correlation.

    This sounds fancy but why do you think this is necessary? Why is this needed to show causation in this case?

    The use of statistics culled from shot and chance data to reliably predict predict goals, wins, and plaer performance is not complex math. It is simple and common sensical. If the technical stuff you’re referring to shows some conclusion, it is up to you to prove it, not just to Clive Frog to mention.

    “Please don’t take this post as a jump down anyones throat, just trying to understand what is going on behind the claims.”

    Well, you might not be “jumping down anyone’s throat” but you are sort of crapping on the hard work of a lot of really intelligent people by causally dismissing their work without bothering to engage with it. You aren’t bothering to actually cite any data or show that some specific claim made by a specific person like Tyler, or Vic, or JLikens is wrong, you’re just hand waving and saying somehow you know that it is all wrong and that someone could show that it is all wrong.

    Well, if it’s all wrong, prove it. Cite a specific post by a respected figure in the blogosphere and show that their conclusions are all incorrect. Don’t just boast that they haven’t proven anything to you. If you can knock it down, do it.

    —-

    ” understand how baseball statistical analysis works, but thats because you can break down 95% of interactions into a single interaction between player and measurement. Hockey is a much tougher bird to look at because there are 9 other players on the ice, different systems, 2 referees and a whole host of other factors that go into a single play. (Outside of shootout attempts)”

    I hear this all the time and I see no reason to believe it. The weather is predictable. The outcomes of elections are predictable. Lots of things are predictable, even where the data and the event you’re trying to predict don’t consist of distinct events.

    Maybe it is harder to use stats and data to make predictions about hockey than baseball. Maybe it isn’t and baseball stats just have a headstart.

    Where is your evidence that hockey is harder to measure, predict, etc.?

    And even if it is harder, there is a difference between hard and impossible. And there is a big difference between doing something hard (which is worthwhile) and trying to do something impossible *which is pointless). Until you prove, with data and explanations, that it is impossible (not just hard) to use stats to better predict and understand the game of hockey, you are just crapping on the work of smart, hardworking people in order to feel bigger and for no good reason.

    Please stop.

  36. Kris11 says:

    delooper,

    Ramified Type Theory.

    But you don’t need types. ZFC can be shown to avoid the paradoxes of set theory as long as we have the axiom of choice. (Or maybe even without it.)

  37. Kris11 says:

    Of course, choice is the C in ZFC. But anyway.

  38. Moosemess says:

    Kris11:
    It is simple and common sensical.

  39. Moosemess says:

    Kris11:
    Having 5 Haseks is dumb.

    Prove it.

  40. delooper says:

    I think the reason why you don’t want to have 5 Haseks (at his prime) is you only need one in net. The rest you could exchange for high-quality other players that you could use. It’s an economics type-of-argument.

  41. Kris11 says:

    Moosemess,

    You weren’t citing that quote approvingly? You disapprove but make no mention of your disapproval?

    Having 5 Haseks is dumb. Prove it.

    Having more than 3 goalies with a high individual save percentage is unlikely to effect a team’s sv% (which partial determines GA over the season and therefore wins over the course of the season) because no team is likely to play more than 3 goalies for any significant portion of the season, based on past history. And I said “healthy Haseks”

    I think it would pay to have two great goalies, especially if one has a history of injury. But many great goalies play lots of games per year. This is why having more than one great goalie is only marginally better than having one great goalie, and having more than two great goalies is even less important, and so on.

    QED.

  42. Kris11 says:

    I believe I am done with this conversation.

    I highly recommend everyone else ignore you as well.

  43. Lowetide says:

    One of the things that happens from time to time on this blog is that someone argues against an idea without specifically engaging. Moosemess, love your energy and have no problem with your right to express yourself but it does seem as though you’re moving back the line with each post.

    So lets take these issues one at a time. Moosemess, where would you like to start?

  44. spoiler says:

    Actually Moose, USSR out-corsied the Team Canada at the 72 Series. 453-410. So not sure that backs up your style theory.

    That was in all situations though, and i think Pat was going to break it down by situation with help from Ellen and Mr. Debakey, but I can’t remember how that turned out.

    Hopefully Pat swings by, or maybe someone not on a phone could track it down. Wouldbe Aug-Sep 2010:

  45. striatic says:

    “The one positive I recall from the olden days is that it makes it easy to double shift the forward pair who are having a strong night.”

    i don’t understand this.

  46. Lowetide says:

    striatic:
    “The one positive I recall from the olden days is that it makes it easy to double shift the forward pair who are having a strong night.”

    i don’t understand this.

    Enforcers don’t traditionally play many minutes, maybe 3 or 4. so the 4 line becomes a duo and sometimes the coach will roll one or two top line players with a 4th liners as an extra line.

  47. striatic says:

    Lowetide,

    but why does having an enforcer make this easier?

    why wouldn’t you roll the duo with the non-enforcer on the 4th line?

  48. VOR says:

    Let me play Moosemess while we wait for him to get back to us.

    He raised the following points:

    1. Is there evidence the team that carries the puck in the most wins more frequently?
    2. Is there evidence that scoring off the rush is correlated with winning?
    3. I am going to insert here his raising Clyde Frog’s point that there seems to be very little in the way of testing to make sure the people postulating new stats aren’t confusing correlation with cause.
    4. He postulates his own position, which is that puck possession and all stats measuring it are flawed because in a hockey game the puck changes hands with great regularity and where that happens may well matter more than who had the puck originally.
    5. He postulates that getting the puck on a turnover in the opponents end may lead to higher quality shots and higher shooting percentages.
    6. All of this arises in his attempt to explore whether or not their is value, beyond just holding their own, in defensive players.
    7. He postulates that there is.
    8. He further postulates that these players are undervalued at the draft and expenisve to acquire once their skill as shut down guys becomes apparently.
    9. He postulates that goaltending is the key to winning.
    10. He suggests that puck possession was a Russian speciality in the old days and asks how it worked out for them…suggesting I gather that it didn’t which Pat’s team pretty much concluded it matter a great deal in 1972.
    11. He also suggest that statistical analysis in hockey isn’t as simple as in baseball.

  49. Lowetide says:

    striatic:
    Lowetide,

    but why does having an enforcer make this easier?

    why wouldn’t you roll the duo with the non-enforcer on the 4th line?

    Thats my point. The enforcer can sit all day long.

  50. OilLeak says:

    Yeah taylor hall scored

  51. Lowetide says:

    Hall (Teubert, VandeVelde)

  52. OilLeak says:

    Eberle now, geez!

  53. Lowetide says:

    Eberle (Arcobello, Hartikainen)

  54. dessert1111 says:

    Uhhh, does anyone else have this double-audio problem? I have two audios at the same time and it’s driving me crazy

  55. Kris11 says:

    Looks like a lot of people are in the stands for this game.

    They’re all dressed as red chairs for halloween.

    Sad

  56. Lois Lowe says:

    dessert1111:
    Uhhh, does anyone else have this double-audio problem? I have two audios at the same time and it’s driving me crazy

    I am too. It is very annoying.

  57. Rocknrolla says:

    Wow, Justin Schultz held pointless on the first two goals!

  58. OilLeak says:

    Rocknrolla:
    Wow, Justin Schultz held pointless on the first two goals!

    He’s slumping, trade him while his value is high!

  59. dessert1111 says:

    what a great hit by hartikainen. i really wish these refs would stop calling penalties on good hits, unless i’m missing something. same thing happened to pelss.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Hartikainen with a boarding call. That’ll move the chains.

  61. OilLeak says:

    House with some good work on the forecheck and on the PK, he’s been playing well of late.

  62. stevezie says:

    The fun side of this double audio is hearing one voice decry the penalty while the other guy is asking why that is only two minutes.

  63. bendelson says:

    dessert1111,

    I enjoyed the two versions of the hit from the ‘play by play by play’ audio.
    One says no penalty and the other is wondering why it wasn’t 5.

  64. bendelson says:

    stevezie,

    Damn you stevezie.

  65. Lowetide says:

    I really liked the zip in that period. Two early goals and some physical play. I thought Hartikainen and Paajarvi stood out.

  66. dessert1111 says:

    I also think one of the announcers said Granlund was player of the month shortly before the other announcer talked about how Schultz got that award.

  67. striatic says:

    dessert1111,

    try muting the video feed and playing http://www.iheart.com/live/1917/?autoplay=true alongside the feed.

    unsure about how it’ll sync up.

  68. steveb12344 says:

    I paid for it on AHL live, and the video and audio are actually upgraded and finally watchable. Even good audio , with no humm.

    Is the video at least better on the free feed?

  69. crude says:

    My pal The Kaiser and I decided that in OKC the healthy scratches have to man the cameras and the soundboard.

  70. OilLeak says:

    steveb12344:
    I paid for it on AHL live, and the video and audio are actually upgraded and finally watchable. Even good audio , with no humm.

    Is the video at least better on the free feed?

    Yeah so did I, the video and audio are much improved.

  71. dessert1111 says:

    striatic:
    dessert1111,

    try muting the video feed and playing http://www.iheart.com/live/1917/?autoplay=true alongside the feed.

    unsure about how it’ll sync up.

    I tried the audio stream in Canada option from the Oilers website and the audio seemed to be quite a bit ahead. The link you sent me seems to only be available in the US. I debated buying the game on AHL but I bought a few of them before and I had problems each time so I don’t want to keep spending money on it. Maybe if I keep getting problems like this and you guys say the audio is improved I’ll try again later this week. Thanks for the info all :)

  72. steveb12344 says:

    I must say OKC has the most entertaining, and fan-interactive intermissions that i’ve ever seen.

    I wonder if their efforts will ever pay off with increased fan support? You can’t say they are not trying.

  73. stevezie says:

    bendelson,

    Bendelson! You villain, you just watch your back.

  74. dessert1111 says:

    Barons aren’t playing very well. At this point, I’d rather have Zahn on an NHL contract than Plante.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Marincin hurt apparently. Damn.

  76. dessert1111 says:

    Lowetide:
    Marincin hurt apparently. Damn.

    The key to the Oilers D is if you’re on contract and not seriously injured, you’ve made the team.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Bigos back for Merrimack tonight, 1 goal and 14 pims. He’s a beast.

  78. dessert1111 says:

    Fedun has looked a bit slow post-injury, but he has to brains to play with skill like Hall and Eberle.

  79. OilLeak says:

    Man, Alex Plante sure takes his time to get moving, he makes Cam Barker look like Justin Schultz.

  80. dessert1111 says:

    Barons’ third line has been pretty brutal tonight by eye. Hall looking good.

  81. Rebilled says:

    Those goals don’t go in for us in the majors. Teemu keeps looking good!

  82. dessert1111 says:

    Schultz looks pissed he hasn’t gotten a point yet lol. Time to turn it up to keep the streak up.

  83. Lowetide says:

    hartikainen! I love finns! Would have married one but that German-english combo caught me first.

  84. dessert1111 says:

    Rebilled:
    Those goals don’t go in for us in the majors. Teemu keeps looking good!

    And I think that’s Zahn with his first pro point?

  85. Lowetide says:

    Zharkov scores again. Big, good. Skilled, good. Goal scorer, GOOD!

  86. OilLeak says:

    dessert1111:
    Barons’ third line has been pretty brutal tonight by eye. Hall looking good.

    Martindale struggling big time, and Pitlick apart from a few outbursts doesn’t know what to do with the puck.

  87. dessert1111 says:

    Lowetide:
    Zharkov scores again. Big, good. Skilled, good. Goal scorer, GOOD!

    Rieder with a goal tonight too against my hometown.

  88. dessert1111 says:

    OilLeak: Martindale struggling big time, and Pitlick apart from a few outbursts doesn’tknow what to do with the puck.

    Yeah, the only one I’ve seen do a few good things is Tyrvainen. If you’re Martindale and Pitlick, the guy who’s playing the best on your line shouldn’t be Tyrvainen, at least not skill-wise.

  89. bendelson says:

    stevezie

    We both know, like all good black hats, hubris will lead to my eventual downfall.

  90. stevezie says:

    bendelson,

    Yes, but it does go well with falafel.

  91. OilLeak says:

    Well, this game got out of hand quickly.

  92. fuzzy muppet says:

    Well nelson better reel em in now. All of a sudden it’s 3-2

  93. OilLeak says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Well nelson better reel em in now.All of a sudden it’s 3-2

    The D is getting worked over, again.

  94. fuzzy muppet says:

    Granlund looks hurt…badly

  95. striatic says:

    why were they playing Abney?

  96. Lowetide says:

    That’s a shame. The kid is outstanding. What happened?

  97. OilLeak says:

    Another rough game for Plante, he’s just not quick enough to keep up with the enhanced AHL.

  98. Lowetide says:

    striatic: Granlund looks hurt…badly

    I think they like him. Suspect he’s in the plans.

  99. Lowetide says:

    This team has so much skill. Lordy.

  100. Lowetide says:

    Schultz with an apple on the ebs goal.

  101. Lowetide says:

    Hall with what looked like a good hit to me. Penalty.

  102. striatic says:

    Taylor Hall, whatta goon.

  103. fuzzy muppet says:

    Lowetide,

    He got hit. with no replay its hard to tell what happened, but he was on all fours and couldnt put any weight on one of his legs. definitely knee or ankle related.

    This Barons team really is a carbon copy of the big club. fantastic up front, terrible defensively and shaky goaltending.

    Hall ejected for elbowing brodin who is still down. Jesus, crazy game

  104. dessert1111 says:

    The Barons brutally injured the Wild’s two top prospects

  105. fuzzy muppet says:

    The barons take offense to DSF saying Minnesota’s prospects are better,

    The top two Wild prospects look badly injured

  106. OilLeak says:

    Well that’s one way of eliminating the competition, first Granlund, now Brodin.

  107. Lowetide says:

    Zharkov with 2 goals for Belleville tonight.

  108. Lowetide says:

    Good win for the Barons, solid play by the impact kids and good game by the role players. Hope the Wild kids are okay, but worried they’re not. Marincin? Don’t know. Hall? He’s no wallflower.

  109. fuzzy muppet says:

    tomorrow night looks like it might be a good night to rest Hall, ebs RNH and schultz. Rough stuff may be coming

  110. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Good win for the Barons, solid play by the impact kids and good game by the role players. Hope the Wild kids are okay, but worried they’re not. Marincin? Don’t know. Hall? He’s no wallflower.

    Good grief.

    Shots on goal were 38-18.

    Here there be dragons.

  111. dessert1111 says:

    Arcobello with three assists tonight. He’s a bit of an unsung hero type, seemed to be relatively quiet but effective tonight. Hartikainen needs to keep hitting like that, he was excellent tonight in the offensive zone. Eberle with some fancy plays. Too many of the other Barons didn’t have an effective game though — shot totals tell a grim tale. It’s almost like they quit after they scored two quick then started trying again once Houston tied it up.

  112. OilLeak says:

    It may be time to send Martindale down and call up either Cornet or Pelss. Pitlick hasn’t played well lately either, but he’s going to get a lot of chances. Third line was murdered tonight.

    Good game by the usual suspects, but was definitely pleased with Tanner House. He was a thorn on the penalty kill and forecheck all night. Good 2 way player with plus speed.

    Defense was awful tonight, not a very good game by Plante or Zahn, and Shultz made a fair share of mistakes tonight as well. The defensive play of the youngsters and inexperienced D is going to be a problem with this OKC squad.

  113. dessert1111 says:

    OilLeak:
    It may be time to send Martindale down and call up either Cornet or Pelss.Pitlick hasn’t played well lately either, but he’s going to get a lot of chances.

    Good game by the usual suspects, but was definitely pleased with Tanner House.He was a thorn on the penalty kill and forecheck all night.Good 2 way player with plus speed.

    I think Martindale should get the weekend and if he hasn’t improved I’d rather see Pelss back. Cornet hasn’t been lighting it up enough in my opinion to warrant a call back. Agreed on House, how many games will he need to play like that and Lander play like crap before House passes him on the depth chart? I worry too long. May as well give the guys a shot who have played well and deserve it (Arcobello, House), even though they are low profile.

  114. OilLeak says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    tomorrow night looks like it might be a good night to rest Hall, ebs RNH and schultz.Rough stuff may be coming

    Don’t really have an option on resting Schultz especially if Marinicin misses some time. Boy this team could sure use another defence man. Now where have I heard that before?

  115. Woodguy says:

    Moosemess,

    You realize that USSR team did shoot the puck on occasion, right? They didn’t pass the puck for 59.9 minutes and only loathsomely give up possession when they could score on the last shot of the game.

    I’m not really sure what you are getting at, can you please clarify it?

    Your tangential misdirection aside, I’m more curious to hear your thoughts on the actual points I raised in response to your post.

    Not sure how I misdirected. My mind does wander.

    Which are what? I don’t know what you asked, if you restated them I could give you my thoughts.

    Google “anatoli tarasov strategy shot quality” or read his books, or better still watch that team play. Commentary on and evidence of this strategy abounds.

    I did, thanks.

    Didn’t see anything about shot quality, but I am going to track down his book. Thanks for the lead.

    I did find this as well from his wiki page:

    “Tarasov was the biggest factor in the development of this goalie, Tretiak, who would be destined to become the most skillful and cherished in international history. In the earliest days of his career, Tarasov had him doing three practices a day as hard as possible while using the maximum consumption of oxygen (MCO). In one instance a Swede player came to practice in the USSR with Tarasov, but he couldn’t last. He reportedly said, “We Swedes don’t’ grow up to practice like this. I don’t want to die.”

    According to Tretiak, “If I let in just one puck, Tarasov would ask me the next day “What’s the matter?” If it was my fault (and it usually appears to be the goalkeeper’s fault), my punishment would follow immediately. After everybody else had gone home I had to do hundreds of lunges and somersaults. I could have cheated and not done them at all, since nobody was watching me- the coaches had gone home too! But I wouldn’t even have considered doing one less lunge or somersault. I trusted Tarasov, trusted his every word, even when he criticized me for letting the pucks in my net during practice.”

    Lazy Russians!!

  116. OilLeak says:

    dessert1111: I think Martindale should get the weekend and if he hasn’t improved I’d rather see Pelss back. Cornet hasn’t been lighting it up enough in my opinion to warrant a call back. Agreed on House, how many games will he need to play like that and Lander play like crap before House passes him on the depth chart? I worry too long. May as well give the guys a shot who have played well and deserve it (Arcobello, House), even though they are low profile.

    Agreed, whether they’re low profile players or not, at some point you must reward good performance. Make these young guys earn their ice time instead of spoon feeding them great opportunities.

  117. fuzzy muppet says:

    After watching the Hall hit, it looks pretty clean. Brodin’s head hits the glass. Brodin also looks like he slowed up and made the hit more awkward

  118. HiddenDarts says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    Agreed completely. Of course, with the public access channel level of the feed, we couldn’t see a replay.

    Good game, though. Maybe it was the crapness of the broadcast, but it looked really fast out there. A few things I saw:

    Abney – Wheels of gold. Sprinkle a little bag of gold dust skill on this player and he’s a threat.

    Schultz – Invisible until it counts. Wow. Gamebreaker.

    Hall – Glad to see him back, and completely on fire. His last hit was completely hard, but absolutely legal, and it’ll be a shame when the AHL suspends him.

    Eberle – What a shooter.

    Marincin – Very speedy, very in control. Burn about the injury, but he’ll be back.

    Plante – Got a call mid-game from a group of glaciers complaining he was “trying to steal their speed limit”.

    Danis – Completely dynamite. For two and a quarter periods.

    The Feed – Ugh. I was transported back to the 80s, where I inadvertently may have put it on Winnipeg Shaw Cable Channel 11. It was the Winnipeg South Blues between the St. James I Don’t Even Recall, and the Blues were up. I immediately recognized my fault and turned it over to a late period episode of Magnum P.I. Whew.,

  119. OilLeak says:

    Well as expected Minnesota fans are overjoyed that the injuries to their best prospects came at the hands of the Oilers affiliate.

  120. RickDeckard says:

    Hall said post game that he heard it was a collar bone injury. That’s good news IMO. Means Brodin will miss the next game, didn’t suffer brain damage and Hall couldn’t have hit him in the head.

    Even if Hall is suspended one game, does it matter? He was going to sit out tomorrow anyway.

  121. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=189120

    Above is the Hall post game-he felt it was shoulder to shoulder and didn’t feel he deserved the 5 minute or the match penalty-on a side note the scar from the Potter skate has healed nicely-Hall has got a lot of forehead and you can barely notice the scar at all.

  122. Lowetide says:

    OilLeak:
    Well as expected Minnesota fans are overjoyed that the injuries to their best prospects came at the hands of the Oilers affiliate.

    Is it just me or are Wild fans dinks?

  123. Bad Seed says:

    Lowetide,

    Worse than that. They’re stupid dinks.

  124. steveb12344 says:

    they are an ignorant bunch. I mean “2nd line flop boy” Hahahaha….That’s gold.

  125. Gerta Rauss says:

    I think part of the problem with the Brodin hit is that the other defender was blocking a bit of Brodin’s view of Hall and maybe it delayed his response to the play. The Wild blogger called it “definitely charging” but it looked to me that the puck was up for grabs in the corner-another half step and Hall would have gotten to the puck before Brodin did-hard to call it a charge when both players have an opportunity to gain possesion of the puck.

    That’s a tough break for Brodin-I hope the kid is OK.

  126. "Steve Smith" says:

    Wait, Taylor Hall as a flop? Is that a thing? I should really read these guys more often. Or less, whichever.

  127. Gerta Rauss says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Well, he is on the 2nd line in the AHL after all, that screams bust to me.

  128. "Steve Smith" says:

    RickDeckard,

    That is a remarkable thread, in much the same way that the Hindenburg was a remarkable zeppelin.

  129. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Good grief.

    Shots on goal were 38-18.

    Here there be dragons.

    I thought you didn’t believe in Corsi?

    Like most of your opinions, I guess its just a matter of which side of a particular argument you occupy.

  130. PerryK says:

    There is a video of the Hall hit at the Wilderness site. I hadn’t seen it anywhere else. After viewing it slowly backwards and forwards, it seems that Brodin was lost in space a little bit just before the hit.

    Some one reversed the puck off the right boards to behind the net. Brodin had the opportunity to make a play on it but chose to let it go to his d partner; who must have yelled at him because he didn’t have a stick!

    So now Brodin is lunging after the puck and Hall looks like his eyes lit up as soon as Brodin let the puck go because he realized that the other d-man didn’t have a stick. He went flying after the puck as Brodin was lunging towards it. Brodin touched the puck first but got creamed as he was in a vulnerable off balance position.

    Any way that is what I saw!

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