RE RE RE

Since we’ve missed so much of the season already, I thought it might be fun to revisit reasonable expectations. If you recall, I had the Oilers improving a lot in some areas (Taylor Hall) and perhaps not so much in others (Jordan Eberle). How do those numbers relate to the current performances by Oilers worldwide?

OKC RE 12-13 FORWARDS

NAME G A PTS Diff
TAYLOR HALL 66 35 32 67 +14
RYAN NUGENT HOPKINS 72 22 45 67 +15
JORDAN EBERLE 75 24 31 55 -21
SAM GAGNER  74 19 36 55 +8
ALES HEMSKY 60 14 40 54 +18
NAIL YAKUPOV 77 18 26 44 Nil
RYAN SMYTH 69 16 22 38 -8
SHAWN HORCOFF 75 11 16 27 -7
MAGNUS PAAJARVI  67 5 16 21 +13
RYAN JONES 70 12 8 20 -13
ERIC BELANGER 77, 10 10 20 +4
TEEMU HARTIKAINEN 50 9 8 17 +12
BEN EAGER 50 4 4 8 -5
LENNART PETRELL 53 4 4 8 -1
DARCY HORDICHUK  44 0 2 2 -1
TOTAL 203 300 503

I think the performances in OKC run about right with the projections here, although Eberle’s NHLE at this point in his Barons season is better and the Nuge’s is worse (they have flip-flopped so far).

OKC RE 12-13 BLUE

NAME G A PTS +/-
JEFF PETRY 72 4 25 29 +4
RYAN WHITNEY  65 4 24 28 +8
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 75 7 19 26 nil
LADISLAV SMID 72 2 8 10 -5
NICK SCHULTZ 79 1 9 10 +3
THEO PECKHAM 55 1 5 6 +3
ANDY SUTTON 52 2 2 4 -6
COREY POTTER 16 0 2 2 -19
TAYLOR FEDUN 6 0 0 0 nil
COLTEN TEUBERT 5 0 0 0 nil
TOTALS 21 94 115  

Schultz has absolutely killed it (his NHLE tonight is 70 points using the Eric T system!) and other than that none of the main players are in OKC from the defensive side of things. Man, that is going to be an interesting defense when things come back together. Sutton’s done apparently, Schultz is shooting lights out on the farm and most of the blue hasn’t turned a wheel. Crazy.

Question: has your outlook changed for the coming season? If they play 50 games this NHL season, do you think the Oilers chances of doing something constructive have increased?  I had them finishing third in their division, 9-11 in the conference. I based my prediction on Taylor Hall exploding as a player, and I do believe we’re about to see it happen (although in the AHL for now).

I think there’s a chance this team could make the playoffs in a shortened season. Say, 25%. What say you?

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40 Responses to "RE RE RE"

  1. Bar_Qu says:

    At what point does Eberle’s insane shooting percentage become normal? What are the historical compasses for a guy shooting 15-18% in the NHL? His 22% in the AHL begs the question.

  2. PaperDesigner says:

    I say Bettman and Fehr toss the system, and hope the draft for this year goes somewhat according to last years standings, so that Seth Jones is an Oiler this time next year.

    I think they’re finally going the right direction. I believe this management group has the skills to mess that up, but they certainly have enough pieces to climb into respectability. But… I don’t see a playoff team yet. Too rickety a defense. Too many questions in goal. Extremely young forward group.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Bar: Bill James said three years before you could draw a conclusion. Eberle’s in his third year, it looks good for him to be part of that family of shooters who score goals, though (Bossy, Mullen, Hull).

  4. PaperDesigner says:

    Bar_Qu:
    At what point does Eberle’s insane shooting percentage become normal? What are the historical compasses for a guy shooting 15-18% in the NHL? His 22% in the AHL begs the question.

    On one hand, it’s entirely possible to believe from his play style that he might be a highly efficient shooter that will make up for percentage drops by shooting a little more. On the other hand, Andrew Cogliano.

  5. Dipstick says:

    PaperDesigner,

    I think that it is reasonable to expect that the draft will be structured similar to the last lost season. Not good news for the Oil. More reason to hope for a speedy resolution.

  6. mumbai max says:

    The X Factor regarding the playoffs is in goal.

    How long will Dubnyk take to get the rust off?

    Will he then show that he is a #1 goalie?

    Will the Oil use Khabby as backup or go with Denis instead?

    Too many unknowns to project a finish.

    With goaltending neutral I think your 9-11 is looking quite good.

    Dubnyk/Denis standing on their heads could mean 6-9.

  7. PaperDesigner says:

    Dipstick:
    PaperDesigner,

    I think that it is reasonable to expect that the draft will be structured similar to the last lost season.Not good news for the Oil.More reason to hope for a speedy resolution.

    Is there particular reason to structure it the same way, though? It’s not like there’s a top prize like Crosby available. They don’t need to give every team a slight shot at the first pick.

  8. Fluxite says:

    what makes you think there will ever be NHL hockey again?

    that league may be dead.

    the OKC key players are not going to go back after this year and if there is no NHL, they may go play with Yak in Russia.

  9. RickDeckard says:

    PaperDesigner,

    I think the Oilers should approve of a system that guarantees they don’t get the first (and maybe the second) in exchange for a vastly increased chance at a top 5/top 10 pick. While Jones/MacKinnon would be great, Barkov, Monahan, Pulock or Ristolainen would be useful pick ups.

  10. leadfarmer says:

    Dammit LT, why do you always put up a new article as soon as I post something. Oh well, guess I will continue reading this article.

  11. rich says:

    Mumbai Max said it right – the X factor is in goal.

    I’d also suggest the other factor weighing in is Whitney’s ankle, because the defense really hinges on that – which also makes the goaltending even better, or worse for that matter.

    If those two things are above average, Oilers could very well sneak into the playoffs in 7th or 8th in a shortened season.

    But either way, it’s nice to have hope that whenever hockey returns, this is going to be a very exciting team to watch.

  12. John.L says:

    Hey LT,

    I feel like the 0.55 NHLE isn’t entirely accurate during the lockout season with a few NHL players per team playing for their respective AHL teams. Thoughts?

  13. Lowetide says:

    I like eric T’s article I linked to in the ON article. He suggested the.55 and it makes sense imo.

  14. godot10 says:

    If the lockout ends, one could see the Oilers starting the season with Danis, with Dubnyk in a backup role initally (to get into game form), and Khabibulin in OKC.

    Khabibulin could be waived fairly safely, and recalled fairly safely.

  15. blackdog says:

    Depends on Whitney and Dubnyk. If Whitney can play top four and Dubnyk is very good then they might be a playoff team if they come out flying and put some points in the bank. Considering a lot of key guys will be in game shape they might do so.

    Still would like to see a quality vet on the back end but HAHAHAHAHAHAHA … Oilerzzzz

  16. Kris11 says:

    Hard to judge the Oilers chances in a shortened season. Everyone has a decent shot on puck luck alone. Small sample sizes even the playing field.

    Moreover, it is hard to judge how good Schultz will be. If he is scary good, the Oilers will be pretty solid, with room to add some replacement players here or there. (But I’ve said that before, so I iz dumb.)

  17. spoiler says:

    Does anyone have a link to Eric T’s NHLE system? I’d like to take a look at his methodology and the reasoning behind not using Desjardins.

    Gabe’s NHLE for Schultz is .47, although I think Gabe would argue that we can expect a higher number for Schultz because both TOI & PP time are likely to carry over to the NHL, whereas they wouldn’t for most prospects. Having much of the same players on the ice would give a boost to Schultz’s own ratio too, however the qualcomp has also gone up.

  18. gogliano says:

    If they use the Crosby draft (and inertia/precedent is a powerful thing), Oilers get hosed. There is no real reason why the holder of the #1 pick loses a ball but those in the #2-5 slot lose nothing. But given the league-wide distaste of the Oilers’ tank strategy, I could see the NHL going this way.

    If I were the NHL I’d either weight the balls according to finish (Oil with 29 balls for finishing 29th, Vancouver Canucks 1 ball for winning the Stanley Cup) or I’d give everyone an equal shot. The latter seems most fair to me given that the toilet teams already got the fruit of their tanking and the Cup teams already got dinged for doing well.

    But I think the NHL says “let’s use the old system” and its weighting against the Oil will just be an additional reason to follow precedent.

  19. jfry says:

    lt, on twitter today, pronman says that he takes faulk over schultz. thoughts? i was surprised that he was definitive and didn’t waffle a little.

  20. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/17/ahl-nhl-points-translations-lockout-league-equivalencies

    Thanks, LT.

    I would have been happier if Eric’s final ratio didn’t rest on an assumption, if the numbers had been broken down by age and if he had eliminated those players already with NHL jobs prior to the lockout. Also the total numbers of NHLers in the A during the last lockout compared to this one would have been nice too. On the plus side, well done on acknowledging the effects of the rule changes. That was a good catch.

    Lots of variables out there…

  21. spoiler says:

    Missed on the first read-through that he is only talking about Forwards. I don’t think Gabe did with his ratios, but I’m old and my memory could easily be wrong. Either way, that methodology kind of eliminates the Eric Ratio for Schultz and other defensemen.

  22. DSF says:

    jfry:
    lt, on twitter today, pronman says that he takes faulk over schultz.thoughts? i was surprised that he was definitive and didn’t waffle a little.

    Schultz’s shooting percentage is 18.5.

    Erik Karlsson’s shooting percentage last season was 7.3.

    There is a huge regression to the mean due to take place here.

  23. Professor Q says:

    “I have had separate, informal discussions with the key representatives of the National Hockey League and the National Hockey League Players’ Association during the course of their negotiations for a successor collective bargaining agreement,” said Cohen. “At the invitation of the FMCS, and with the agreement of both parties, the ongoing negotiations will now be conducted under our auspices.”

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/hockey/nhlnews/NHLPA+agree+allow+mediators+into+stalled+negotiations/7611625/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_oilers

    I wonder how many birds it will take to get the NHL and NHLPA on track together?

  24. Lowetide says:

    jfry:
    lt, on twitter today, pronman says that he takes faulk over schultz.thoughts? i was surprised that he was definitive and didn’t waffle a little.

    I’m a big fan of both, suspect they’ll be outstanding for a long time.

  25. delooper says:

    What’s Schultz’s mean, DSF, and how did you compute it?

  26. DeadmanWaking says:

    When you’ve got half a dozen guys–inexperienced or not–who can make the other team’s middling players look foolish, you’re in the mix. In the larger game of ploy and counter-ploy you eventually reach a tipping point. I’ve experienced this over and over with military strategy games (including interactive versions like Age of Empires).

    Yak over teakettle attack
    Did I miss something?

    I could put that second clip on a loop and watch it all day. There’s a point where amassing enough threats pushes your adversary into cognitive overload.

    We just need plus goal-tending (one month of Khabi’s last stand would suffice if the season is short) and one more small piece of good news on defense.

    That said, we remain a ways away from being odds on.

  27. spoiler says:

    Okay, just short of the quarter pole of this season, AHL scoring is 2.93 goals per game. Last season it was 2.83 goals per game. That is an increase of 3.26% more points available this year than last season, with a sample size of 522 games.

    Wow, I was expecting a much bigger jump.

    Now this increase in points is not spread evenly among all players of course, but it should favour the top prospects.

    If we apply the full increase to Gabe’s AHL league quality–.45 of the NHL–and bump it by 3.5%….

    We get an NHLE of .464, or not a lot different.

    This isn’t perfect methodology either. It assumes that scoring in the NHL remains the same, and that prospects who make the jump will bring scoring at the same rate as previously. The first assumption rests on no major rule changes or changes to the number of teams. The second assumption is a little iffier… Does improved linemates have the same effect on the whole as improved competition? It might not be equal when a player’s team benefits from an influx of NHL talent more than the league average. And then we have the case of Schultz… Who is benefitting from 3 NHL level talents sharing the ice at the same time. That’s not something we can say about any forward prospect on the Barons, with the possible exception of Harski.

    And for someone like Pitlick, who might be getting far more PP time without the presence of The Three Amigos, is his NHLE actually negatively affected? I suspect that’s the case.

  28. Ducey says:

    delooper:
    What’s Schultz’s mean, DSF, and how did you compute it?

    There is no math involved. Its simple for DSF. If an Oiler’s prospect is struggling, that is as good as he will ever get. If he is performing well, then he will regress.

  29. jfry says:

    @dsf

    Even if you take off half of schultz’s goals (thus lowering his shooting percentage) he’d still be top five in scoring and continue to lead the league in plus/minus.

    I’m a big fan of Faulk and have seen him more than Schultz, but nothing I’ve seen from Faulk has suggested to me that he’s obviously superior to us (taking resume and performance into account). Pronman obviously has more viewings and was shocked it was such a cut and dry answer.

  30. spoiler says:

    That’s 2.93 goals per game per team in my post above. It’s double that per game. Same with the 2.83. Obviously, the percentage difference is still the same, but I thought I should correct my wording in case someone thought the A was a shit ass league.

    *******

    Schultz’s shooting percentage his last two years of college was 14.5 and 16.7% respectively. I don’t think a 10% average in the NHL is out of the question, which means a 20 goal a year scorer. Schultz averages about 220+ shots in an 82 game season the way he plays the game and given 1st pairing ice time, 1st PP. His points ratio runs about 1.75 assists for every goal and has been a fairly consistent proportion thoughout his career.

    So even if that shooting percentage regresses, we’re still looking at a potential 20-35-55 defenseman, which is a very good player indeed. And there’s possibility of upside from even there in that he may shoot better than 10% and is passing to better offensive players than he ever did before (his assists this year are trending higher than in past years, but only one assist less would put him back to dead on).

  31. Bank Shot says:

    Schultz regress? No shit. I don’t think anyone actually expects him to finish the season with 120+ points. He’s still going to end up having a great pro rookie season.

    As for the Oilers playoff chances, the shorter the season the better. I feel the only way they make the playoffs this season is based on luck, and a shorter season amplifies that nicely. They should have a pretty good forward core scoring wise. I feel they are still lacking in two way forwards. Their best scorers are all kids that are going to be making their fair share of defensive miscues.

    The defense is still going to be poor, and I think the best we can hope for is average goal tending.

    The entire projected Oilers top six is playing hockey right now, which hopefully gives them a big advantage when the games start. If they can put together a big hot streak in their first 20 games, they could easily ride that into the playoffs in a sub 50 game season.

  32. dessert1111 says:

    Here’s hoping that Schultz, Eberle, Hall and RNH finish 1-2-3-4 in AHL scoring to end the year, the NHL season starts on time next year, and whatever draft lottery there is and whatever their odds, Oilers win it. I think that’s as good a consolation for missing the season as any.

    Won’t it be fun to stop predicting and start watching?

  33. russ99 says:

    I still don’t think the Oilers make the playoffs without some adjustment to the bottom 6. We’re still well below playoff-level when it comes down to a tough shutdown line. Maybe we could roll 3 skill lines (with some combination of Smyth, Horcoff, Hemsky and Jones as the third line), but we’d need an even better shutdown 4th line playing 10+ minutes a night in that case. Belanger could be a decent shutdown center (I’d hope for a bit better when we are a playoff team), but we’re lacking on the wings with kids and goons in their place.

    And that’s still not considering an average defense with Schultz and the goaltending situation.

    It would be a heck of a fun ride, with all these young scorers and even a less productive Schultz at the NHL level, but still no playoffs.

  34. Protagonist says:

    dessert1111:
    Here’s hoping that Schultz, Eberle, Hall and RNH finish 1-2-3-4 in AHL scoring to end the year, the NHL season starts on time next year, and whatever draft lottery there is and whatever their odds, Oilers win it. I think that’s as good a consolation for missing the season as any.

    I’d settle for the AHL results and getting a solid player in the top 10. I don’t think the Oilers need help immediately in the vein of an RNH, Hall or Yakupov, but could use a solid blue chip prospect to stock the cupboard again. Maybe I’m spoiled by four years of a full kitchen but it seems to me that all of the good teams in this day and age can usually look into the pantry and see something tasty. We don’t need a dynamite pick in the late round as much as we could use a few more spicy dishes to bubble under (to steal a common LT phrasing). Say someone like a Curtis Lazar that might end up surprising everyone?

    Basically I want to look in the minor league system and see a player like Granlund waiting for his shot in addition to the 1st overalls tearing the league a new keister.

  35. RexLibris says:

    Re: the draft and the season – I’d be fine with a “lost” season as most Oiler prospects are playing and the trend of the team is towards improving. My concern is the draft lottery, based on the assumption that it would mimic the ’05 draft, would shaft the team at a critical moment. They need a future 2nd line center, and this is the ideal moment to acquire one without having to pick in the top five.

    I agree with LT’s projection that with a season this team finishes somewhere in the 9-11 range in the Western Conference. I’d be just fine picking in the top ten, a trade could move them up to 6th or 7th if needed. Adding someone like Lazar or a similarly-ranked center (regardless of the recent drop in standings) would be ideal for the makeup of this roster.

    The OIlers don’t need to “win” the draft lottery, but the sure as heck can’t afford to “lose” it and draft 25th overall again.

  36. FastOil says:

    The lockout may not be the best thing for Whitney, Schultz, Smyth, Belanger and Horcoff. If they aren’t affected and are completely healthy (can do the heavy lifting) and Dubnyk holds his ground anything is possible.

    If Whitney is still hobbling and Schultz regresses any, I think they’re going to have a bit of a problem with GA. There will only be two NHL defencemen in essence. I am not sure the youth are quite yet at the point that their firepower could overcome that. I suppose there is always the chance they may actually acquire someone.

    The Oilers acquire someone, who am I kidding, I can’t even type that without smirking. As I’ve said before it wouldn’t hurt my feelings if they picked high again one last time in a draft year bursting with centres that have decent size. The year is a mess anyways. That being said, after that I would expect them to take winning seriously again.

  37. Gi JQE says:

    Ducey,

    Well said.

    However, why do we even bother responding to DSF anymore. Its rare he contributes much really…

    Can someone explain how FAULK is considered superior to SCHULTZ? Both are playing on very strong offensive AHL clubs and SCHULTZ is outperforming by a wide margin. FAULK wasn’t exactly the shutdown guy in the brigs last year or this year was he? I haven’t watched him much, so just cruious…

  38. Bob Arctor says:

    Gi JQE:

    Can someone explain how FAULK is considered superior to SCHULTZ?Both are playing on very strong offensive AHL clubs and SCHULTZ is outperforming by a wide margin.FAULK wasn’t exactly the shutdown guy in the brigs last year or this year was he? I haven’t watched him much, so just cruious…

    Faulk is two years younger and putting up ppg in the AHL. Need to wait a couple years before you compare him to the season Schultz is currently having.

  39. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/17/ahl-nhl-points-translations-lockout-league-equivalencies

    Stunningly, the comments section for this thread is already closed.

    I had thought that NHL Numbers was trying to be a mathy site.

    If so, closing comments on theories a few weeks after their presentation is the exact opposite thing to do. It tells the world that the site has no interest in math or science, but would rather create dogma.

    Pretty bush on their part.

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