#13 PROSPECT (winter 2012): TOBIAS RIEDER

Tobias Rieder is perhaps the victim of high expectations after his career year in junior (2011-12). This season, he remains a solid 2-way player used by his junior team in all three disciplines, but his offense is well off the pace.

TOBIAS RIEDER ONE YEAR AGO (OHL)

  • Evens 11-12: 60, 26-19-45 .750
  • PP 11-12: 60, 9-22-31 .517
  • PK 11-12: 60, 7-2-9 .150
  • OVERALL 11-12: 60, 42-43-85 1.417

 TOBIAS REIDER THIS SEASON (OHL)

  • Evens 12-13: 27, 5-3-8 .296
  • PP 12-13: 27, 3-11-14 .519
  • PK 12-13: 27, 1-0-1 .037
  • OVERALL: 27, 9-14-23 .852

The powerplay and PK numbers are good to great, in fact Rieder is being used in all three disciplines and that’s a trigger for this blog to embrace a prospect. The EV number is a huge concern, though. Last season, Rieder was 16 points ahead of the next closest Ranger–and finished 5th in goals and tied for 9th in points. And remember, this isn’t the outback league or tier 2, this is the O-freaking-H-L. Great, great junior league. This season? Tied for 61st in OHL points.

Summer 2012: #8

Winter 2012: #13

Pre-Draft

Redline 58

  • Redline:Undersized, but exceptionally smart playmaking winger with excellent offensive instincts and creativity. Has decent speed, but lacks the explosive first step burst and acceleration you’d like to see in a player his size. Super soft hands and slick with the puck in tight; can create separation with sharp cuts/turns. Sees the ice very well and can saucer touch passes through traffic off either side of the blade. Makes imaginative set-ups, often surpassing his mates with unexpected plays. Average shot, but has good finishing ability from the circles in with a quick release he hides well. Anticipates developing plays, stepping in to intercept passes and start quick counterattacks in transition. Desperately needs to pack on muscle – lost weight during the season and was out of gas from January on. Not afraid to go into the corners and will take hits, but can’t battle effectively.
  • Kirk Luedeke: German winger Tobias Rieder is the second of Kitchener’s sublime import duo, and may well be the best player to ever come out of that country when all is said and done. The speedy and ultra-skilled forward showed no transition struggles and has been a crucial element in keeping Kitchener’s high-octane offense going, especially with the loss of 50-goal man Jeff Skinner to the Carolina Hurricanes. We’re not saying Rieder is the next Skinner (he’s got similar size and can really fly; doesn’t have quite the sublime hands/hockey sense though), but he’s one heck of a scoring talent, and hockey is in his blood. This is a kid who is absolutely driven to be in the NHL one day, and based on early returns, he’s going to get there.
  • The Scouting Report: There was high praise for Rieder at the start of the year as the German born center/winger came over to Kitchener with fairly high expectations. After starting out the year at a pretty good pace, Rieder slowed down as the year progressed. He’s a little undersized but he definitely competes hard for his size and wears his heart on his sleeve on the ice. Didn’t have a great showing during the World Juniors but by the 3rd or 4th round, he’ll be a decent prospect to see if he can continue to develop his offensive game over the next couple of seasons.
  • ISS: The smaller German sniper struggled with a shoulder injury during the World-U18 and was held to 3 games played, but managed to tally 3 goals. Rieder is a strong offensive player, with two-way potential. He has a very good well rounded skill set but excels as the shooter in the offensive end. Voted Rangers Rookie of the Year, finished 9th in scoring among rookies in the OHL. Rieder production slipped after he slipped down the depth chart when D’Amigo arrived.

12-13
We’ve seen this unusual development pattern from an undersized OHL winger before, in the person of Lowetide favorite Liam Reddox. The similarities in their yearly stats is obvious:
LIAM REDDOX
  • Age 17 68, 31-33-64 .941ppg
  • Age 18 68, 36-46-82 1.206ppg
  • Age 19 68, 19-45-64 .941ppg

TOBIAS RIEDER

  • Age 17 65, 23-26-49 .754ppg
  • Age 18 60, 42-43-85 1.417ppg
  • Age 19 27, 9-14-23 .852ppg

And of course it is also amazing they were selected in just about the same spot: Reddox (4th round, 112th overall in 2004) and Rieder (4th round, 114th overall in 2011). Reddox played in 100 NHL games, and must be considered a draft success by any standards. Should Rieder play 100 NHL games, we should consider it to be as successful.

#13 ranked prospects on December lists:

  • December 2004: C Jesse Niinimaki
  • December 2005: C Jonas Almtorp
  • December 2006: D Bryan Young
  • December 2007: L Liam Reddox
  • December 2008: L Slava Trukhno
  • December 2009: L Phil Cornet
  • December 2010: C Ryan Martindale
  • December 2011: L Tobias Rieder
  • December 2012: L Tobias Rieder

Tobias Rieder is listed as 5.11, 190–that’s not big for an NHL winger but he isn’t small-scale either–and he clearly has a nice range of skills. I think the young man got the absolute most out of his 2011-12 season and this year is perhaps more along the lines of what we should expect. I am concerned about his even strength numbers, but it is also unfair to take a 25 game snapshot and call it a complete set. I’m impressed with his assist total on the PP two years running–he is 11th in PP assists this season, and was 8th a year ago. Is it the Ryan Murphy effect? We’ll find out.

Tobias Rieder is not having a strong season compared to last year, but he remains a solid NHL prospect.

 

 

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19 Responses to "#13 PROSPECT (winter 2012): TOBIAS RIEDER"

  1. BlacqueJacque says:

    Well, maybe last season was just one of those career years that players have before they tail off.

    Would be nice if he did exceed his draft position expectations (and I think he will, just not to the extent suggested by last year), but not unexpected.

  2. OilLeak says:

    His PP production is consistent, but his ES production has taken a dive; something has changed. There is always the possibility that Reider is being used in a heavy defensive role with a lot of defensive zone starts this season as opposed to last, that will take a toll on anyone’s point production.

  3. BlacqueJacque says:

    OilLeak:
    His PP production is consistent, but his ES production has taken a dive; something has changed.There is always the possibility that Reider is being used in a heavy defensive role with a lot of defensive zone starts this season as opposed to last, that will take a toll on anyone’s point production.

    Sigh… hockey statistics just haven’t kept up at all. If it wasn’t for rabid fans, we wouldn’t know zone starts.

    The CHL can’t even keep track of ice time, never mind zone starts. Sometimes tracking prospects can be very frustrating.

  4. gd says:

    I’ve seen two Kitchener games this year and while Reider hasn’t looked dominent, he still looks like a guy who does a lot of little things well. Kitchener looks a lot like the Oil Kings this year, in that something with the team doesn’t look quite right, but not as disasterous as say a team like Saskatoon.

    I think Reider is a great test for the Oilers development system as there is no need to rush him, but I hope they adequately communicate to him what he needs to work on to make it. All I know is he is exactly the kind of guy Detroit always seems to have coming up from the minors at around 23 and ready to play on a top 3 line for them.

    I had forgotten that Reider is eligible for the WJHC. If Klefbom and Gernat were healthy the Oilers could have had first line players on 6 of the teams this year.

  5. blackdog says:

    Hm I don’t think he’s as big as listed LT. Everything I’ve read about the guy says size is a huge issue. 5’11 and 190 doesn’t make sense if this is the case.

  6. RexLibris says:

    If we throw out the 1.4 ppg season we are still left with a steady improvement year over year. That, coupled with the trust shown by his coaches, means that he is indeed a worthy prospect.

    Any prospect can flame out (I chose that reference specifically), what I look for in the scouting reports are for effort, intelligence, and skill. Size changes, and sometime is irrelevant (Hugh Jessiman) and I would rather the Oilers took a chance on a skilled player learning the NHL than a big athlete learning how to play hockey.

    Glad to see Rieder this high on the list.

  7. Kris11 says:

    Man, Ricki et al. almost had me convinced that the kid was an A1 prospect last year. Reason told me no, but optimism told me yes.

    Never again, dagnabit.

  8. spoiler says:

    Could be lots of things going on here…

    Maybe the new tale of the tape is right and the kid hit a growth spurt or has over-gymmed and is still learning his new body. But I suspect Pat is right.

    Maybe he has a minor injury bothering him. (Beyond the present foot issue)

    Maybe he’s facing tougher comp & tougher starts as Blacquejacques mentions above.

    Maybe his linemates are poorer. Would Puempel have been playing on his line?

    Oilers seem to take someone small and skilled every draft… Omark, Rajala, Rieder, Laleggia. Guys who are easy to cheer for because of the physical obstacles they have to overcome to make it.

  9. Matt.N says:

    Nobody is 5’11″ in the hockey world. If you are actually 5’11″ you get the magical 6 foot push. A hockey prospect listed as 5’11″ is like a woman listing herself as “curvy” on Match.com

  10. spoiler says:

    Matt.N:
    Nobody is 5’11″ in the hockey world. If you are actually 5’11″ you get the magical 6 foot push. A hockey prospect listed as 5’11″ is like a woman listing herself as “curvy” on Match.com

    I’ve always liked the term “athletic build”.

    Now is that build Romanian gymnastics team athletic… or Romanian weight-lifting team?

  11. BlacqueJacque says:

    Matt.N:
    Nobody is 5’11″ in the hockey world. If you are actually 5’11″ you get the magical 6 foot push. A hockey prospect listed as 5’11″ is like a woman listing herself as “curvy” on Match.com

    Matt Duchene and Steve Downie are both listed at 5’11, IIRC, but I agree, I think most 5’11 guys get the bump. I wouldn’t be surprised if there aren’t more 5’10 guys in the NHL than 5’11, and I know there’s a whole whack of 6’0 dudes.

    Hall is listed at 6’1 and I think at one point he was said to be 6’1.5″, but having met him in person I’d say he’s barely above 6 feet, not 6’1 and certainly not higher. I’m a legitimate, middle-of-the-day 5’11″ myself. I think a lot of players get an inch just to seem more impressive. It’s definitely true in basketball.

  12. BlacqueJacque says:

    Anybody watching Giants @Redskins? Nailbiter.

    Giants taking some crazy amounts of penalties.

  13. spoiler says:

    That makes me feel better after my Niners lost.

    Thank you NHL… for the NFL crack addiction I thought I had licked five years ago.

  14. eidy says:

    It doesn’t look like anyone on Kitchener can score. Kitchener as a team is scoring almost one full goal per game less than they did last year.

    I wonder if there is a change in philosophy/approach or just bad puck luck. They look good in the games I have seen, just not clicking.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Eidy: They also had an enormous road trip early, that’s something that could even out over time.

  16. dessert1111 says:

    In person, I didn’t notice Rieder looking small, but he’s definitely not big. He looks average-sized, but more importantly, he’s not timid. I think size could be a minor concern, but with some attention to it there’s no reason why he won’t be able to be big enough for an NHL wing spot on virtually any line.

    Also, as Eidy alluded to, Kitchener is the second lowest-scoring team in the West (79 goals in total–Windsor has 78) and the fourth lowest-scoring team in the whole OHL. None of the Rangers are tearing it up, and there are three first-rounders on the team (Murphy, Faksa and Puempel), ones that Rieder normally only plays with on the powerplay. He has to hold his line together himself, and although he is a good player, he’s not elite offensively and I wouldn’t expect him to drive the bus on a scoring line in the NHL. A good complimentary player and a good bottom 6 player, though.

    He is a key all-situations player, and Kitchener has the best goals against number in the OHL (63–the next lowest is Owen Sound with 67). Even strength scoring is a bit of a concern, but I think a lot of it boils down to role, the system employed, and his linemates. I think Rieder is a very good prospect, and given current team needs, is a great fit for the Oilers.

  17. Dalton says:

    I think Phil Cornet is another 5’11er. I remember reading about a scout saying that (I think it was Reider… pretty sure) although he’s listed at 5’11, he looks smaller on the ice, and he thought the stat was wrong.

    I’m so glad to be 6’2″. Would hate to be a shorty short-shorts!

  18. rickithebear says:

    Sorry Kris:

    Rieder is a quick release guy.
    Needs a set-up man
    Last year he had Catennaci .85 APG

    This year Rieder played.

    Games 1-5 w/ Puempel and Faksa @ EV and PP 1.2PPG All primary shooters.
    From this point on rieder was placed in a 3rd line role with first unit PP with Puempel, Faksa
    Games 6-8
    Marccantu-Faksa-puempel were 1st, Sterk-Allberg-Pederson 2nd
    from game 9-27 Puempel-Faksa-Ming played first.
    Game 9-21 Sterk-Bailey-pederson played 2nd line
    Game 22-27 Marcantuoni-Bailey-Pederson w/ Sterk out.

    So games 9-21
    Rieder has played with
    Marcnatuoni .083 EVG/G .208 EVA/G .291 EVP/G
    Games 9-27
    Rieder has played with
    Thomson .148EVG/G .074EVA/G .22EVP/G
    Alberga .077EVG/G .077EVA/G .154 EVP/G

    Games 9-27
    Rieder is .210EVG/G .105EVA/G .315 EVP/G

    IIHF:
    08-09 u18 WJC
    considered 15 Yr season one of 2 (3 birth (D. MUSIL)
    6GM 1G 3A
    point totals similiar to 17yr old T. jurco. 16 yr old G. landeskog
    10-11 U18 WJC
    3G in 3GM good for 19th
    behind 12 players (Armia, Zibanejad, Cousins, Forsberg) with 4G in 6-7GM
    10-11 U20 WJC 17 Year
    6GM 1G1A same as Baertschi @ 18

    12-13 U20 WJC
    I look forward to rieder playing with
    LW Draisaitl 6’0″ 3rd best scoring CHL 2014 drft Eligble
    PA Raiders 30GM 9G 18A .9PPG

    C Kahun 5’8″ 10th best scoring CHL 2013 draft eligable
    Sudbury Wolves 29GM 7G 17 A .83PPG

    LW L. Pfoederl top 20 Scoring u18 WJC
    C A. Pauli 1PPG in U20 Play.
    C N. Latta 6″0″ Sarnia Sting .36PPG
    RW S. Uvira 6’2″ Oshawa Generals .38PPG
    All superior to what he is playing with now.

    GO GERMANY!

  19. KitchenerWatcher says:

    The night Rieder was injured he risked inury to make the play more than once. He had several blocked shots on the game, dove to clear the defensive zone as a period ended, was involved in several hits, and generally played a tough-spots game when needed.

    When he blocked the shot that proved to cause the injury, he winced (without showmanship) and got right back into the play, finishing a defensive zone shift without obvious problems. I think he then took a shift off. On his next shift, he was on and back off the ice quite quickly, clearly a test-shift that his foot (or whatever body part is injured) didn’t pass. That was it for his game.

    Prior to the injury, he had a decent offensive game in terms of chances and puck control. Though his offense is good, his main strength is as a balanced ‘all-situations’ players. PP, PK, EV = “yes, you want him on your team.”

    Other than Ryan Murphy, he is the best puck carrier & chance generator on the Rangers. He is on the ice for the most important offensive and defensive minutes. I wouldn’t trade him for Puempel (Ranger; Ottawa draft pick) or Faksa (Ranger; Dallas draft pick) though both have a size advantage.

    I’ve spoken with NHL scouts at Ranger games the consensus is that Rieder is “another small-bodied forward, which Edmonton doesn’t need.”

    Regardless, this kid is a real prospect.

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