#16 PROSPECT (winter 2012): OLIVIER ROY

The Edmonton Oilers have drafted 4 goaltenders since 2009, and three of them have been taken in the depths of the process. I believe that’s a good way to handle drafting goalies, but the hitch is this: once a generation, someone has to turn into an actual NHL goalie.  Olivier Roy has a chance.

  • Oilers goalie coach Frederic Chabot 2010 fall“He’s shown a lot of maturity in the last year. He’s just six feet tall so he needs to very, very precise as to how he positions himself in the net. But he’s one of those goalies who looks bigger in the net. He stands tall. He does a good job challenging guys.”

The Oilers have run a few goalies through Stockton over the past several years, and I thought it might be an idea to compare their SP’s in their first ECHL seasons

  • Jeff Deslauriers 11, .940 (04-05)
  • Olivier Roy 40, .925 (11-12)
  • Devan Dubnyk 43, .921 (06-07)
  • Andrew Perugini 37, .908 (08-09)
  • Glenn Fisher 38, .903 (07-08)
  • Bryan Pitton 34, .886 (08-09)
Roy was in the range with Dubnyk last season, pretty good company in terms of recent Oiler goaltending prospects. I don’t think we should overlook his brilliant season in Stockton in 11-12.
Summer 2012: #12
Winter 2012: #16
Pre-Draft
  • Redline report: “Roy has great athleticism and flexibility and is a tough-minded competitor who never gives up on a play. While he’s fairly advanced technique-wise, the problem for this typical butterfly netminder is his penchant for constantly going down to the ice too early and swimming around the crease. He gets by with that style in the junior ranks, but at only 5-11 and 163 pounds, he’s too small to cover the corners, and we suspect that pro shooters will pick him apart up high and take advantage of his habit of overcommitting.”
  • NHL Central Scouting’s Chris Bordeleau: He catches your attention. He’s steady and he plays well all the time.”
  • Cape Breton goaltending coach Scott Gouthro“Olivier Roy has extremely quick reflexes and when he challenges is extremely hard to beat. He continues to work on his puckhandling which is a key tool for the next level. He is a warrior, his competitive nature and desire to win is exceptional.”
I’m a little confused by the behaviour of the organization in regard to Olivier Roy this season, and that accounts for some of his fall in the rankings. Before the year began in OKC, we were led to believe that Roy would start quite a bit (or at least that’s what I thought would happen) but we’re well into the season now and Roy has played in just 6 games.
  • October: 3, 2.68 .915
  • November: 3, 3.98 .852
Roy has had three solid outings (.949, .931, .917 by game) and three poor ones (.846, .700 and .842), which is somewhat disappointing because his previous AHL outings (6 in total over 2 seasons) have been very good.  I think the Barons under Todd Nelson may have felt a need to get Yann Danis straightened away, so the club ran with him more often during the early part of the season. One hopes Roy gets more starts as we roll through the cold months.

#16 ranked prospects on December lists:

  • December 2004: L Brock Radunske
  • December 2005: L Slava Trukhno
  • December 2006: D Theo Peckham
  • December 2007: D Mathieu Roy
  • December 2008: L Teemu Hartikainen
  • December 2009: L Toni Rajala
  • December 2010: D Taylor Chorney
  • December 2011: G Frans Tuohimaa
  • December 2012: G Olivier Roy

Olivier Roy’s season has not been written, and should the lockout end the young man will be thrust into the spotlight. His fine season in Stockton suggests we should expect him to show well, and his ranking is very likely to climb based on past performance.

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4 Responses to "#16 PROSPECT (winter 2012): OLIVIER ROY"

  1. Gi JQE says:

    I cant disagree with your ranking. Thing about goalies though is they can rise or fall over night.

    I still believe BRUNZ has more upside than ROY. If he is going to be DUBNYK at best then I could care less. Drafting mediocre goalies is useless…there are always plenty available via free agency. The trick is drafting above average and star netminders….

    LT – what do you think ROYs ceiling is? I don’t see nhl starter there… ?

    Wow I do sound negative. ..must be the lockout getting to my mood!

  2. Lowetide says:

    GI JQE: If you and I were in Vegas and had $100 each to bet on Bunz or Roy, I’d bet Bunz. But if you bet Roy, my guess is that we’d be about even in terms of one or the other emerging as a 150 game NHLer. And the house probably had a good chance of keeping all the money.

    Bottom line: they’re both long shots to be NHL starters.

  3. voxwah says:

    Roy is winning right now because he has a job playing on the top hockey league in North America. Dubnyk doesn’t even have a job and might not until the fall of 2013 if he’s lucky. A few teams will probably be gonzo along with the player spots if the season gets cancelled. The advice the players are getting is beyond ridiculous.

    What a bunch of assholes.

  4. Gi JQE says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s fair enough. I suppose we cant really hope for a lot more with later round picks.

    voxwah,

    I really am amazed. I do not believe they comprehend what they have already lost… mind boggling.

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