OKC V TEXAS 31.12.12

I’ve been watching the Canadian juniors and the Canadian Spengler team these last days, and have to say that the Christmas hockey offered this year has been outstanding. The Nuge is a brilliant offensive player and a smart player without the puck, I could cheer Ryan Smyth taking out the trash and big Devan Dubnyk needs to channel his inner Spengler for the next decade. On to the Barons and the heart of the Oilers order for the next several seasons.

(Justin Schultz photo courtesy Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved).

I posted this yesterday over at ON so if you read it this might be boring so I apologize. In an effort to find estimates for AHL time-on-ice I used a basic portion of an Ian Fyffe post from 2002 in order to get a general idea about current even strength time on ice. The background is explained at Oilers Nation, but I wanted to post the information here as well so I can reference it at the end of the year.

  PLAYER GP EVEN GOALS TOTAL EST TOI TOI.GAME EST
L HALL 22 35 402.5 18.30
R EBERLE 30 47 540.5 18.02
C ARCOBELLO 28 36 414 14.79
C NUGENT-HOPKINS 19 23 264.5 13.92
L HARTIKAINEN 30 34 391 13.03
R PAAJARVI 30 31 356.5 11.88
R PELSS 3 3 34.5 11.5
L TYRVAINEN 9 5 103.5 11.5
C LANDER 26 24 276 11.5
C VANDEVELDE 26 25 287.5 11.06
L HAMILTON 25 22 253 10.12
C MARTINDALE 7 6 69 9.86
C GREEN 13 10 115 8.85
C HOUSE 18 11 126.5 7.03
R PITLICK 23 14 161 7.00
R RAJALA 5 3 34.5 6.90
L BYERS 30 15 172.5 5.75
L LIZON 2 1 11.5 5.75
L HUNTER 2 1 11.5 5.75
R ABNEY 4 1 11.5 2.88
L CORNET 8 1 11.5 1.44

One thing that has always bugged me: we don’t know the at-bats! If we’re listing the boxcar numbers (games, goals, assists, points, plus minus) for AHL players we assume a certain number of minutes per game. Say 12-17 for forwards, more for defenders. The attempt here is to add some color to the boxcars, and maybe make the case that Tyler Pitlick has not gotten the same chance as prospects would have in previous seasons (by eye I would suggest that, the number here reflects it).

I think it is reasonable to suggest that guys like Hall and Eberle actually play less than the estimate, because their offense happens more often than other roster players. This is an EV minutes TOI estimate and I think it probably yields better information over an entire season (so I’ll run it out at the end of the year).

I did not post the defense at ON, but will here. It reflects Schultz/Marincin being part of the EV offense for much of the season:

  PLAYER GP EVEN GOALS TOTAL EST TOI TOI.GAME EST
D SCHULTZ 30 65 747.5 24.92
D MARINCIN 27 54 621 23.00
D PLANTE 22 28 322 14.64
D RINGWALD 7 8 92 13.14
D DECK 10 10 115 11.5
D HENRY 16 16 184 11.5
D FEDUN 27 22 253 9.37
D ZAHN 5 4 46 9.2
D TEUBERT 30 22 253 8.43
D DAVIDSON 6 2 23 3.83

The Marincin-Schultz pairing towers over the rest at evens, and again (as with Hall and Ebs) I think we can assume its heavy (not sure how to correct for it). Plante shows up more often than expected but that might reflect poor play (higher event), would have expected Teubert and Fedun to be about where Plante and Ringwald sit.

Anyway, comments welcome appreciate the input. Enjoy tonight, Happy New Year. My kids are out there tonight, please help make them safe. If you see someone about to get behind the wheel after having too many wobblies, find a way to save them from being an idiot. God bless.

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50 Responses to "OKC V TEXAS 31.12.12"

  1. OilLeak says:

    Martindale on defense, sounds like a plan.

  2. Ducey says:

    I know this is all guesstimating but it seems to fall apart when dealing with “checkers”.

    If you are a shutdown center or defenseman and doing you job, you are not likely on for a lot of goals for or against. Therefore your TOI will be low – see Teubert. There is no way they are playing a first round pick, vet defenseman 8 EV minutes a night.

    Also, it seems that the very thing we are trying to find (the players who are overproducing or underproducing compared to their TOI – so EV P/TOI) is going to be skewed as TOI is being determined by EV P.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: I hear you, although surprisingly the checkers at forward come out nicely. As an example, the OKC centers at evens:

    1. Arcobello 14.79
    2. RNH 13.92
    3. Lander 11.5
    4. VandeVelde 11.06

    Now, last year’s NHL C’s

    1. Gagner 14:40
    2. RNH 14:33
    3. Horcoff 14:03
    4. Belanger 11:11

    That’s pretty close, no?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Oil Leak: Fixed. Thanks for pointing it out!

  5. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: <That’s pretty close, no?

    Not bad, but don’t you think Nuge’s TOI is likely to be closer to that of Hall and Ebs?

  6. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: Not bad, but don’t you think Nuge’s TOI is likely to be closer to that of Hall and Ebs?

    No. If he’d been on the ice for the same goals it would be reflected in the number. The three NHL kids didn’t play together at all times, and Hall-Eberle are clearly more high event (as they should be, they are both older).

  7. bookje says:

    So, just watching the TSN tweets and it looks like the NHL and NHLPA might just come together and solve this fiscal cliff thing after all.

  8. jake70 says:

    bookje:
    So, just watching the TSN tweets and it looks like the NHL and NHLPA might just come together and solve this fiscal cliff thing after all.

    Had to chuckle ….. was watching Fehr a while ago on the sidewalk in Manhattan doing the scrum………..a media type was to his immediate left with an Expos tuque on. Rewind to 1994, if you would have told me Fehr would be leading the nhlpa in 2012, with the Expos gone from baseball, arguably due in large part to that 94 season and the threat of a lost NHL season, (oh and Tim Raines being hired by the Bluejays as a minor league coach today), I would have called you insane. Strange stuff.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Oklahoma City Barons ‏@OKC_Barons

    #OKCBarons lines: Hall-Arcobello-Eberle, Paajarvi-Lander-Hartikainen, Byers-Green-Pitlick, Hamilton-House-Lizon
    Expand

    Oklahoma City Barons ‏@OKC_Barons

    #OKCBarons D-Pairs: Deck/Schultz, Fedun/Teubert, Marincin/Plante. Yann Danis between the pipes
    Expand

  10. spoiler says:

    LT,

    For players like Hall did you just use the TGF for the games they played or are you using the seasonal number pro-rated?

    Did you use an average of the ESGA formula and the ESGF formula as Fyffe does?

    Have the numbers been normalized to remove the skew that Ducey alludes to above and as recommended by Fyffe?

    Since oyu are calculating based on ES, have you removed Total Team PP minutes from the calculation?

  11. Woodguy says:

    Rob Vollaman at Hockey Prospectus is playing around with figuring out who makes the most passes that results in shots.

    Kinda like a “playmaker” stat.

    Very interesting.

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1417

    As good as the EDM kids are (and they’re pretty awesome), what O’Reilly and Landeskog managed playing against the toughest comp as kids is breath taking. (Landeskog outshot everyone and played against the leauge’s best. Fine choice for the Calder)

    Good stuff there.

  12. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    LT,

    For players like Hall did you just use the TGF for the games they played or are you using the seasonal number pro-rated?

    Did you use an average of TGA and TGF as Fyffe does?

    Have the numbers been normalized to remove the skew that Ducey alludes to above and as recommended by Fyffe?

    I used the entire season number for each player. Is there more value in using just Hall’s games (for Hall)? Yes, I used an average of GF/GA. I didn’t normalize (but can) as I wanted to bring the raw numbers forward and perhaps move forward based on input from the group.

  13. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I used the entire season number for each player. Is there more value in using just Hall’s games (for Hall)? Yes, I used an average of GF/GA. I didn’t normalize (but can) as I wanted to bring the raw numbers forward and perhaps move forward based on input from the group.

    Thanks, LT. I wasn’t sure, especially because only the GF #s were charted.

    As the old poster on one of my Math prof’s bulletin board used to say:

    E=mc^2

    And then in red teacher ink:

    5/10
    Very good, Albert. But next time, please show your work.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Eberle with 2 quick goals, first one assisted by Hall and Arcobello

  15. YoungOil says:

    Anyone have a link to a stream? It seems that atdhe isn’t working.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Second goal was a Hall assist. goals were 9 seconds apart.

  17. BlacqueJacque says:

    bookje:
    So, just watching the TSN tweets and it looks like the NHL and NHLPA might just come together and solve this fiscal cliff thing after all.

    Does anyone actually care at this point?

    We’ve heard this so many times now. Besides, the NFL playoffs are coming up and then we have spring training. That honestly sounds more appealing to me at this point than some abortion of a half-season and cocked-up playoffs. Remember when the Knicks almost won the NBA championship in that shortened season in the 90s? Terrible basketball. I wouldn’t expect better from hockey.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Eberle AGAIN! Three in a row. Arcobello and Schultz this time. 23 goals in 31 AHL games. Thanks, Stu!

  19. dessert1111 says:

    This is why Eberle is my favourite player; I hope he shuts up the guys who overuse stats. Also the OKC announcers are hilarious!

  20. Lowetide says:

    Young: that’s the only one I know, keep trying it usually starts working later on.

  21. Lowetide says:

    What a wonderful player. The third goal was the best, but they’re all top drawer highlights. Man, what a draft pick.

  22. dessert1111 says:

    Barons now with 4 of the top 20 scorers in the AHL, 3 in the top 10. If the lockout goes the whole year can they go 1-4?

  23. Lowetide says:

    Hall is 7-8-15 in his last 10 games, with 44 shots on net.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Eric Rodgers ‏@AHLBarons

    1st period faceoffs: Arcobello 3/4, Lander 4/5, Green 6/7, House 3/3. Team 16/19. #OKCBarons

  25. Lowetide says:

    Schultz from Hall and Eberle

  26. Wolfie says:

    The only thing better than watching these young bucks rack up the points in the AHL would be watching them do the same in the NHL. I wonder if they can push their PPG close to 2 if the lockout lasts the year.

  27. Marc says:

    Moroz just scored for the Oil Kings

    Channelling his inner Smyth…

  28. striatic says:

    love what House did on that 5 on 3 D zone face-off.

  29. Crash says:

    Hi all, is there a link for me to watch the game?

  30. Crash says:

    You guys are saints. Thanks and Happy New Year.

  31. striatic says:

    Eberle and Schultz are each 10 points ahead of the field, and Hall is tied with the field despite playing 10 fewer games.

    they’ve pulled Arcobello up into the top 20.

    pure domination. peerless.

  32. PunjabiOil says:

    Hall is 5th in AHL in scoring, despite 7 less games played than his competitors.

    Do hope he improves his shot. He’ll be a 30+ goal scorer at the NHL level just based on sheer volume of shots taken, but if he improves his shot, he can be a 40+ goal scorer consistently.

    Still young and driven enough to improve on it.

    Eberle now shooting at a 25% rate. Was at 24% in his last AHL stint. He was a goal scorer in junior as well.

    His relatively low shooting percentage in his rookie NHL season is given too much consideration. It may have been the exception, not the norm.

  33. Wolfie says:

    I just watched the replay of the Schultz goal. I’m not sure he’ll have the time and space to do what he did in the NHL but wow what a smart player. Doesn’t force the shot through. Changes the angle and picks his spot with a nice accurate wrister. I would love to see this kid in an accuracy competition. He puts it exactly where he wants it.

  34. Lowetide says:

    PJ: I’m a big believer in “established level of ability” as described by Bill James. Basically it means three seasons of a certain level before you can count it. Eberle’s final junior year and his rookie season looked like the same guy in a different photo. Last season and this are different.

    We wait.

  35. OilLeak says:

    Are you kidding me? I’ve missed 6 goals? Dammit!

  36. striatic says:

    PunjabiOil: His relatively low shooting percentage in his rookie NHL season is given too much consideration. It may have been the exception, not the norm.

    his progression reminds me of Stamkos, who shot 12% in his first season and hasn’t been lower than 16% since.

  37. PunjabiOil says:

    Eberle’s final junior year and his rookie season looked like the same guy in a different photo.

    In his final year in junior, he had 50 goals in 57 games. I know WHL SOG totals aren’t posted online, but is there any possibility he was shooting at a high rate in his final junior year?

  38. Lowetide says:

    Sure but we don’t know that and despite what you might read I’m not the guy touting shooting percentage. I believe in being absolutely certain about a player being at a certain level before adopting it as being written in stone.

    Eberle is making a strong case. Bill James suggested three years, perhaps Eberle already meets that level? I’m suggesting we wait a little longer.

  39. PunjabiOil says:

    striatic: his progression reminds me of Stamkos, who shot 12% in his first season and hasn’t been lower than 16% since.

    Yup. May very well be. Stamkos scored 23 goals in his rookie season. Eberle pro-rated total was 21.

    Obviously there are no guarantees in sport, but the arrows for Eberle are pointing north.

  40. PunjabiOil says:

    Sure but we don’t know that and despite what you might read I’m not the guy touting shooting percentage. I believe in being absolutely certain about a player being at a certain level before adopting it as being written in stone.

    Eberle is making a strong case. Bill James suggested three years, perhaps Eberle already meets that level? I’m suggesting we wait a little longer.

    Absolutely. Fair comment.

  41. Captain Happy says:

    In his rookie season, Stamkos scored .83 G/60

    Eberle .74 G/60

    In their second NHL seasons:

    Stamkos 1.23 G/60

    Eberle 1.32 G/60

    We could be looking at a 50 goal scorer here.

  42. striatic says:

    Wolfie: I would love to see this kid in an accuracy competition. He puts it exactly where he wants it.

    interesting thing about those contests was the 2012 skills competition where Stamkos stunk up the joint in the accuracy competition.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=pNHhmjLRDBU#t=443s

    what i love about this performance is how easily he takes out the top corner targets and then repeatedly misses the lower ones by repeatedly missing just high on the lower targets.

    the “misses” were actually better shots than the “hits” would have been, as the “misses” would clear a goalie pad.

    basically Stamkos’ accuracy suffered because he couldn’t force himself to take a bad wrister.

  43. Schitzo says:

    One thing that I found interesting – this TOI estimate is built on the assumption that goal-scoring rates occur with a constant frequency regardless of the players on the ice.

    Stats like QualComp are built by comparing the goal differential when a player is on the ice, versus when that player is on the bench. In other words, it assumes that GF/60 and GA/60 are influenced by the players on the ice.

    The stronger you believe one of the two measurements to be accurate, the less faith you should have in the other. (This is not groundbreaking insight – the paper linked above actually notes that “we still have distortion caused by superior and inferior players. For instance, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux will have their ice times overestimated because they raise the rate their teams score goals when they are on the ice drastically. Conversely, their lower-scoring teammates will have their ice timesunderestimated, on the whole.”)

  44. hags9k says:

    About Eberle…
    I like that Eberle keeps clicking along without Nuge. Maybe the Nuge-Ebs pairing doesn’t need to be so set in stone. If you break up that pair, it opens up a world of line combos…

    We may be looking at a 50 goal scorer here? So conservative around here. I hate to risk being unreasonable but cmon we are Oiler fans here. He will certainly be a 50 goal scorer. Eberle’s gloves and stick were found away in a manger. Best goal scorer we’ve had since….???……Messier? He may have more career Oiler goals than Smytty by the end of this contract.

    About Schultz…
    WOW

  45. Lowetide says:

    Smyth has 284 goals as an Oiler. Eberle has 52 in his first two NHL seasons. At his current pace it would take him 11 years to pass Smyth.

    Eberle is on pace to score 56 goals this season in the AHL, I’m not sure how that tells us he will “certainly be a 50 goal scorer” but sure hope you’re right!

  46. hags9k says:

    Lowetide,

    Six years at a 35 goal average will get him close. The great part about your Bill James 3 years is that as you’ve said we don’t yet have his established level. He’s only 22. Where are we going? Higher!!

  47. Lowetide says:

    That’s the thing. Once we have three years then it gets easier to project. If he scores 20 in 48 games after the lockout that’ll be a plus trend too imo.

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