TOO SOON TO KNOW

I attended an event that featured a mentalist last night, he talked about reading people and tells (those are my words); the show was outstanding, and on the way home I began thinking about the Oilers and their “tells” when it comes to their players.

I do believe the Oilers will give these young men a full opportunity:

  • Teemu Hartikainen: He’s pretty close to being the “guy we’re looking for” who can use his size and has enough skill to play with the very good players.
  • Colten Teubert: He’ll stand in against anyone, shoots first and asks questions later.
  • Taylor Fedun: I have no idea how he fits in, but Fedun is building a resume. Maybe a modern Gary Lariviere?
  • Tyler Pitlick: Ridiculous combination of zero results and compliments from onlookers. Every chance.
  • Curtis Hamilton: I think there’s a disconnect between player and organization, but it isn’t terminal yet. Hamilton is in a little trouble as a prospect, but is showing signs lately of turning the corner (especially on the PK).
  • Martin Marincin: NHL teams never give up on big, mobile defensemen who can move the puck. Never. Lots to learn, he’s a keeper.
  • Chris VandeVelde: I think the Oilers like this guy far more than any Oiler fan would think. Suspect he’s in the plans, at least for the short term.
  • Anton Lander: I suspect they’ve cooled on him a little, but Lander is still a prospect they believe in.
  • Kristians Pelss: They like him a lot, the fact he signed tells us that much. Pelss is in the age range of the golden part of the cluster, that might hold him in good stead moving forward.

I don’t believe these men will be long term Oilers based on how things are rolling out and what we read into the actions of the club:

  • Magnus Paajarvi: I don’t think the Oilers see him on a scoring line, and feel others are available for the 2-way role. I think he’ll be traded, and will have a solid career elsewhere.
  • Toni Rajala: Despite impressive numbers, the Oilers are going away from small forwards, and the ones they do have are so damn good its silly.
  • Cameron Abney: I wonder if he’s hurt himself somewhere along the way. He is not the nuclear deterrent hoped for, and he certainly isn’t going to play hockey minutes.
  • Alex Plante: I think the Oilers made their decision on Plante the day Teubert came over.
  • Phil Cornet: If he had some more crash maybe the Oilers would consider him, but the ECHL demotion the season after 24 goals is a tell.
  • Ryan Martindale: Buddy’s been hurt for awhile now, but hasn’t drawn into the lineup and no one is asking about him. I think that’s a tell.

I’ll have a GDT up later today.

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20 Responses to "TOO SOON TO KNOW"

  1. Matt.N says:

    A funny thing just happened to me. i opened up this site and saw a few posts that i haven’t read.

    I found this site back during the 2006 cup run. I can confidently say that I have read every post and probably 95% of comments made since then. It has been my first stop on the Internet for 6 years. Even when in another country I check out the latest posts. The work that LT has done here is fantastic and I like the sense of community.

    I think I am caring less and less about the Oilers and the NHL. The fact that I went three days without looking at this site from work or home is really telling for me.

  2. Lowetide says:

    That’s the thing, Matt. At some point, we’ll all move on–whether its hockey or another pursuit. Baseball had to juice their sluggers while having their commish turn a blind eye to recover, and in many ways they never did it.

    I’ve been reading the alcoholic’s pledge a lot lately. Not because I’m an alcoholic, but because there is so much wisdom. You can’t manage crazy, and as fans we’re watching the NHL and NHLPA kill each other.

  3. Zack says:

    I think that this is a tell you still have a deep rooted passion for the game LT, taking something completely non-related to hockey and applying it to the game. I’ve done this multiple times, it’s pretty interesting albiet weird at times the analogies that I come up with.

    Although I want Hartikainen to make it, I’m really rooting for Teubert. As for the NHL/NHLPA dispute, I don’t even care anymore, not that I really ever did. Instead I just dream of a league with 20-25 teams, where the players make more than adequate amount of money but not more in one year than the average man makes in ten years and that ticket prices are ~$30-$50. I can dream.

  4. vishcosity says:

    I find myself still checking this blog, and while I’ve never been an every day reader, I’ve probably read them all for six years too. I like the writing, I like the perspectives, over the years I’ve learned a ton about the game and am a better parent to a wannabe superstar on a host of levels.

    Years ago my wife ordered bedsheets from NHL.com. Advertised as a high thread count, they may as well be made of burlap. She has moved on. Like her, I finally see that I’m the fool for ever supporting the machine, for ever believing the pillow case would be any good.

    I feel ripped off. I watched this DFL team for the last three years, and now, with a possible pay off in sight, I’m more hoping for the league’s demise than any recovery. I’ve watched six baseball games in ten years, I suspect the same will be true for major league hockey going forward. There is basically no chance they will get fifty bucks from me again.

    Still I’d love to see Taylor Hall with a ring, but for Taylor. Certainly not for Katz and I definitely don’t ever want to see Bettman again. The other day a friend timed the drive from Northlands to the proposed new arena location. It took him six minutes. The city needs to pull a Glendale for six minutes? Its like I’ve been in some dream state of believing a corporation is an ally and am just now realizing that I’ve been drunk for years.

  5. Jaw17 says:

    Matt.N,

    This is my second stop right after Oilers Nation, and now it’s off to Bluebird Banter to find out if the jays have signed Dickey yet, then Raptors Republic just to make sure the Raptors are still horrible lol

  6. Jonathan Willis says:

    The verbal on Martin Marincin lately has been concerning, as was his healthy scratch the other night.

    You don’t give up on a player like that but the Oilers seem awfully down on him given his season to date.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Jonathan: I can’t see why they would be, the step from junior to AHL is a big one. Unless he’s doing something that is verboten or has missed a team bus a few times, I can’t see anything in his play that suggests a big concern.

    Plante is a concern, but Marincin? Not from here.

  8. Matt.N says:

    Jaw17,

    http://smartfootball.com/

    This is where I have been spending my time.

  9. Jonathan Willis says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s how I see it, too. But that Stauffer/Nelson interview on Monday really makes me wonder what’s happening off the ice and the Oilers’ overall happiness with the prospect.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Sending a message? The Oilers rarely leak anything they don’t want out there–that’s my opinion–so maybe the Barons listen to Bob’s show. From what I’ve seen of Marincin, the quickness of the forwards is an issue (this could be called the Alexei Semenov-Chris Hajt-Francois Leroux problem) but he’s wonderful at getting the puck up the ice.

    If he’s capable of learning and doesn’t get hurt, Marcincin should be in the NHL someday.

  11. Radman says:

    Lots of moveable assets for sure. Doubt they move Klefbom or Musil given their skill set. Could see them moving Marincin or Gernat in the right deal. Peckham or Teubert. Up front MP, Gagner, Hemsky and Pitlick considerations.
    How about a Dickey style deal. The Ducks ship seems to be listing. Getzlaf coming off substandard season. Soon to be UFA, which is a concern. Trade history between these guys. Oil seeking size and scoring down the middle. Teams seldom trade guys like RG though (aside from Thornton) Do you see a love connection LT ? Would qualify as wow factor.

  12. Lowetide says:

    I know Getzlaf was hurt, but is it long term? Also, what’s the cap hit and for how long? In theory, it’s perfect as a “wow” move.

    btw, everyone please read this. I know the lockout is a giant pain in the ass, but this fellow makes sense.

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=47968

  13. jfry says:

    Can someone recap the negative verbal on Marin in please. I hadn’t heard anything.

    I’ve also been coming here since that great playoff run and its the first thing I read everyday and a tool to entertain myself throughout the day in the comments. Like matt, I’ll bet I’ve read almost all the content on this site. My ex would always get on my case, “you’re always on lowetide, yada yada” but to be honest the knowledge I’ve gained here has been invaluable in my work place. Its provided a really nice venue to think differently about numbers and expected results and has made me much better as a small business owner. All these lessons about pdo and corsi have practical application in my workplace everyday and when there’s fruitful did discussion on the topics I feel like everyone here is contributing to my success “off the ice” and that’s a wonderful thing from a bunch if “strangers”

  14. Oilertown says:

    LT I read that and have to agree with Clouts. One guy who is driving me absolutely insane in all this is Crosby its almost like a cult the way Debt has the young superstars wrapped around his finger. The last deal the league offered is more then fair.

  15. Oilertown says:

    Sorry meant Fehr not debt not sure how that happened.

  16. Marc says:

    Half way through his first season as a pro, Maricin is currently ahead of the following players in AHL scoring:

    Adam Larsson, Nick Leddy, Marco Scandella, Chris Tanev, Jonathon Blum, Jamie Oleksiak, Travis Hamonic, John Moore and Dmitry Orlov

    Now he may not end up being as good as some of these guys in the long run, but D who can score like Marincin has this early in their career have a way of making it to the NHL and I’m sure that the Oilers know that.

  17. Professor Q says:

    Oilertown,

    So what you are saying is, Debt is Fehr? I disagree! Haha exam time makes this bored. :(

  18. sliderule says:

    LT you are spot on with your assessment of oiler prospects.

    This is I am sure from listening to Stauffer and other oiler people comment.

    I think Paajarvi and Marincin are part of the wow trade.The oii Have lost faith in the swede and though they like Marty the other part of the trade want him.

  19. Jonathan Willis says:

    Things that drive me nuts: the idea that “fair” has anything to do with the lockout process.

    A minimum wage of $100,000, in my view, is “more than fair” for NHL players. Of course, they’d have to be complete imbeciles to take it and any lawyer in their employ advising them to take that should be summarily disbarred.

    On the other hand, the NHLPA’s last offer to the NHL, representing massive concessions from the most favourable CBA in recent memory, was also “more than fair.” Of course, if Bettman thinks he can gets the owners more and recommends they take it he isn’t doing his job.

    “More than fair” is irrelevant. The NHLPA’s lawyers have one obligation: to do the absolute most they can for members. The NHL’s lawyers have one obligation: to do the absolute most they can for ownership. Neither of them, unfortunately, have any obligation to fans or the game except insofar as their representation of their clients coincides with those obligations.

  20. russ99 says:

    Despite my usual extreme dislike of coke machines on skill lines (aka Hartikainen) I really have to wonder how quickly the defensive prospects we have will pass by Fedun.

    Kid’s a good story, but for a non-puck mover he’s not that great a skater and has lots to learn about playing NHL-caliber defense. Could end up being a solid career AHL guy, and an occasional NHL fill-in due to injury.

    Marincin is the real deal, just needs a year or two of seasoning to make the push to the roster.

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