BARONS V MILWAUKEE 25.1.13

I’ve been searching for a good photo of Kristians Pelss for a couple of weeks, but he’s always in the middle of something (as per this photo courtesy Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved). Pelss has been in OKC for a couple of weeks now and is 8, 0-4-4 +2 for the season in the AHL. He’s going to be in the mix for my annual “Fernando Pisani” award, given each May (beginning this year) to the player in the organization most likely to become a quality 2-way forward in the future. Winner gets a $100 GC from the Italian Centre.

Lineup:

  • Arcobello-Green-Cheechoo
  • Lander-Rajala-Pelss
  • Martindale-Byers-Tyrvainen
  • VandeVelde-Hamilton-House
  • Brett Clark-Taylor Fedun
  • Martin Marincin-Nathan Deck
  • Kane Lafranchise-Colten Teubert

Goalie is Roy.

I really like this Lander line, and am hopeful that Marincin’s good efforts are a springboard. Updates in the thread.

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42 Responses to "BARONS V MILWAUKEE 25.1.13"

  1. Kris11 says:

    Teubert on pairing 3. Not much going on good there. Too bad. I thought he might be a decent call up, 8th Dman.

  2. stevezie says:

    Interesting position Vandevelde is in. Arguably the top callup (he made camp), relegated to the 4th line.

  3. raventalon40 says:

    Damn, Teubert is barely a third pairing guy in OKC?!

  4. OilLeak says:

    stevezie:
    Interesting position Vandevelde is in. Arguably the top callup (he made camp), relegated to the 4th line.

    Mainly because he’s almost 26 and still terrible. He’s the Alex Plante of the forward group with better skating.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Roy just made an incredible save, club still down 2-0. Jim Byers just mentioned that Anton Lander has had FIVE scoring chances in this game. That Lander-Rajala-Pelss line is really doing a nice job.

  6. OilLeak says:

    Good recovery by Roy, after over committing on the original chance.

  7. OilLeak says:

    Oh Oh, it’s Bunz time.

  8. Lowetide says:

    3-0 now, and they’re lifting Roy. Bunz in now, his first AHL action. Interesting based on today’s transactions.

  9. OilLeak says:

    This team is snake-bitten, 4-0 and shots are 32-17 OKC

  10. Lowetide says:

    Martindale (Rajala, Fedun)

  11. Lowetide says:

    Martindale now 3-3-6 in his last 6gp, Rajala 6, 2-3-5 recently.

  12. OilLeak says:

    7-1! OKC has no chance with this type of goaltending.

    Bunz, 4 Goals on 8 shots, ouch.

  13. bookjLe says:

    Last year Bunz and Roy were our Goalies of the future – for the NHL team – what the hell. Why can’t goalies ever make sense.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Yeah, although Bunz hasn’t played since Jan 9. But he’s been no screaming hell in Stockton either.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Rajala (Clark, Fedun) 6, 3-3-6 for Rajala too. Some of these kids are getting some traction, if they can fix the goaltending…..

  16. OilLeak says:

    8-1? huh

  17. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookjLe:
    Last year Bunz and Roy were our Goalies of the future – for the NHL team – what the hell. Why can’t goalies ever make sense.

    The same reason crustacean pyjamas don’t make sense.

  18. Professor Q says:

    OilLeak,

    8-2?

  19. voxwah says:

    Wow, OKC out shot them 46-29 and lost 8-2. You don’t see that everyday.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Lander had a half dozen chances. If he had any hands at all..

  21. Captain Happy says:

    Lowetide:
    Lander had a half dozen chances. If he had any hands at all..

    The fatal flaw of Corsi.

    Doesn’t matter how many chances you get if you can’t bury them.

  22. "Steve Smith" says:

    Hey, it’s Captain Happy!

  23. Captain Happy says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Hey, it’s Captain Happy!

    Hey, it’s Steve Smith!

  24. Lowetide says:

    We missed you around these parts during the time of Nail. Nice to see you back. Will you be staying, or waiting for some misery?

  25. Captain Happy says:

    Lowetide:
    We missed you around these parts during the time of Nail. Nice to see you back. Will you be staying, or waiting for some misery?

    Ah, Nail was great!

    Tarasenko is much better. :)

  26. Lowetide says:

    Captain Happy: Ah, Nail was great!

    Tarasenko is much better. :)

    Well, neither of them is Volpatti. :-)

  27. OilLeak says:

    voxwah:
    Wow, OKC out shot them 46-29 and lost 8-2. You don’t see that everyday.

    It wasn’t due to score effects either, Barons out shot them 16-9 in the first period.

  28. Captain Happy says:

    Lowetide: Well, neither of them is Volpatti.

    Nope.

    Although Volpatti scored a nice goal tonight in the Canucks 5-0 win over the Ducks.

    Has more points than Shawn Horcoff.

    Fancy that.

  29. BONVIE says:

    Captain Happy, wrote

    The fatal flaw of Corsi.
    Doesn’t matter how many chances you get if you can’t bury them.

    I can agree with you on this one!!! That sums up MPS’ game.

  30. Kris11 says:

    Comparing Tarasenko’s 21 year old season, to Nail’s 19 year old season is like comparing Jordan Eberle’s year last year to RNH’s.

    When Nail is 21, watch the hell out.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BONVIE:
    Captain Happy, wrote

    The fatal flaw of Corsi.
    Doesn’t matter how many chances you get if you can’t bury them.

    I can agree with you on this one!!! That sums up MPS’ game.

    If the game of hockey consisted of a series of shootouts you’d be on to something.

  32. stevezie says:

    Captain Happy,

    I would describe it as a limitation, not a flaw. It does what it can, which isn’t everything. Just like you, just like me.

  33. godot10 says:

    BONVIE:
    Captain Happy, wrote

    The fatal flaw of Corsi.
    Doesn’t matter how many chances you get if you can’t bury them.

    I can agree with you on this one!!! That sums up MPS’ game.

    The OIlers don’t need more top six forwards (apart from the dream of a big right-shooting centre). If Paajarvi and Lander are defensively responsible (they are), and can drive positive Corsi (Paajarvi can, I think Lander needs a puck transporter with him), then they can be valuable assets for the OIlers.

    Paajarvi is a matchup player. The Oilers potential Dennis Rodman. Paajarvi might not have the finishing skills, but he might be able to neutralize the finishing skills of a top forward on the other team.

  34. bookjLe says:

    What the Hell? It’s 7:18 – Where is the Game Day Post? You know its Oilers vs Flames, right?

    Let’s get this game on!

  35. commonfan14 says:

    Captain Happy: Ah, Nail was great!

    Tarasenko is much better.

    What about Kreider? Did he forget how tall he is?

  36. rickithebear says:

    Captain Happy: The fatal flaw of Corsi.

    Doesn’t matter how many chances you get if you can’t bury them.

    But it is too expensive to get it correct.

    So that makes it OK! LOL!

    Best technical observation ever!

  37. DeadmanWaking says:

    I’ve decided to tear a page out of Petry’s playbook, and withdraw my wandering shtick from between the skates and thick banter of the 600-lb gamethread deadlift, and consign myself to the back shelves of acquired tastes such as blue cheese and herring-stuffed anchovies and other comestibles unwillingly (or unwisely) shared where jocular masses converge–such as it is (Distorted Statistics Feed remains my all-time favorite backronym, may it RIP.)

    Today’s effort is the kind of potpourri unbundling one gets from a man condemned by the undrying paint of resolutions freshly hatched.

    First, Adler is at it again in his piece Down with the seriousness of pro sport. I once mentioned Adler as the first prototype to cross my path in the template of Kahneman’s “adversarial collaboration”: essentially, a person you don’t regard as a complete idiot, but wish you could, because you will simply never agree on the spirit of anything at the end of the day, though you might be less far apart on substance than you initially suppose.

    I felt a vibe from Lowetide after that post not to pursue the matter too closely. I have no idea whether this vibe was overt on Lowetide’s part or entirely resident in my own mind, and I mean not to find out. The point is–and this becomes relevant soon–this is not a distinction that matters. I know I’m influenced by everything I read. Whatever I read yesterday shows up on my fingers today. Taking vibe seriously is a form of respectful communication. To perform a public and gruesome autopsy of where Adler and I diverge strikes me as not the kind of warm welcoming star Lowetide wishes to hang here. It doesn’t really matter whether I sensed it in the subtext of his writing in the following days, or whether it’s entirely my own psychic projection, striking up the morning after from a cultivar of Lowetide’s kindness and grace I’ve somehow internalized over the years. It’s a delicate business remaining respectful when you mainly show up to cross the line. Now, of course, this whole place is a circus of small transgressions. That’s the thing, here. Cheers: Where everyone knows your vein. The pub-like atmosphere struck me like a living beer commercial on the recently reinvigorated game threads. Some days there’s the barn-like echo of the usual Norms, warming their habitual stools. But then Friday night rolls around (frights and sights), and the place hops and slops like a madhouse.

    Back to Adler on the Yak Huzzahk (yeah, I just made that up as a throw-away):

    The tone conveyed from the Kings’ room had a common denominator: Yakupov was showing up his opposition. Sheer hypocrisy, of course. Sour grapes, too.

    Adler justifies this remark with some sharp observations to follow.

    The verdict came down from the mount, somewhat grudgingly: all right, let’s forgive the youngster. But only this time. Someone should tell him not to make a habit of such celebrations.

    They were kidding, right? RIGHT?

    No, they were dead serious. So far as they are concerned, the players are (or should be) automatons, robots, even, and the most they should allow themselves to do after achieving something spectacular is they should skate to the bench and accept congratulatory low-fives from their teammates.

    Here’s where Adler and I will never rub elbows in a nice way. I’m sure many of the habitual Norms will recall the infamous (in my own mind, at least) Pouzar thread. For those who don’t, someone dropped by and contributed a great anecdote about Pouzar, back in the old days. My line-crossing of the moment was to punch this up with a Limerick (my first ever), before a little dabble with the transgressive bounds of the form. Now in the moment I thought this was all a lot of fun. But I haven’t written any since, not that I couldn’t if the spirit moved me. Some while later I noticed a poetic bun fight erupting and I wondered whether I had any hand in nursing that vibe. I chose not to wade into this, because this kind of thing gets out of hand in a damn hurry. The weird set takes up residence, and soon the proprietor is running an establishment Cheers: By Invitation Only in his own defense.

    Man, if I ever stumble over a video on YouTube “A compilation of the 100 best cellies of the 2013/2013 hockey season” I’ll hunt Adler down in his sleep. Once the athletes are competing more for the spotlight of celebrity than for the accomplishment of engraving their name on the cup, no amount of taking possession of authenticity on our own terms will save us from the public charade. A little bit of exuberance goes a long ways. It’s a potent vial, and deserves a humble circumspection, and not a less-cynical-than-thou backslap instigation.

    Yesterday my madcap reverie culminated with a maggoty bearskin orc princess threesome. If Taleb is right that the author pleasing himself is a necessary condition to entertaining the reader, then I was far down the path of merriment. So silly. Why do I do this? I was wondering about that this morning. And here’s my answer: Because it’s the oven-cleaner of cliche build-up and sooty residues.

    When I read Martin Amis’s book of collected literary reviews under the title The War Against Cliche I said to myself “Sign me up. And I mean now!” Such a book might sound a bit sterile on the scale of 0 to Fistric. Not so quick. Amis says pretty much everything he’s ever written is an extended mediation on masculinity. He says the men who most succeed with women are the men who are comfortable with both sides of their nature: the masculine outward persona, but also their inner feminine anima. Men and women: we mirror each other. Here’s the Jungian blather about that from Wikipedia:

    Because a man’s sensitivity must often be repressed, the anima is one of the most significant autonomous complexes of all. It is said to manifest itself by appearing in dreams. It also influences a man’s interactions with women and his attitudes toward them and vice versa for females and the animus. Jung said that “the encounter with the shadow is the ‘apprentice-piece’ in the individual’s development…that with the anima is the ‘masterpiece’”.

    I think that line “I’m starving. We haven’t done nothing but roll around on maggoty bearskin for three stinking days.” will stay with me for a long while. I’m just suffused this morning with the joy of a clean oven. That line, along with my recent line “Spruce Bruce, is that you?” makes my oven sparkle.

    This second line was written in response to observing computer-generated sports reportage in the wild. Not a subtle sighting by any means, but something I was recently primed to watch for by the book Automate This. I’ve written about Bruce that he has an uncanny gift to loan the reader his eyeballs. If I have within me a pithier compliment, I’ll be damned if I know what it is. I meant the “eyeball” to reference both his lucidity (there’s more art here than immediately appears) as well as the Shakespearian trope of eyeballs referencing wisdom, perception, and soul. (I will for the moment attempt to park the magic carpet which yesterday delivered me from LOTR to Apocalypse Now in a single bound, by not drifting into a cameo appearance of the famous eyeball scene from Blade Runner.) Bruce is a dab hand with the subtle spice, where I’m more of a mad hand: the cook who serves a ground fennel and tapioca glaze on a substrate of pork roast, rather than letting the main thing shine through my prose.

    Computer-generated sports verbiage is exactly like being handed a glass eyeball or two. Spruce Bruce, is that you? I can’t tell, my vision is clouded. It fits the socket, and doesn’t scare children from fifty paces, but there ends its utility altogether. I might add a footnote that Howard Hughes could be regarded as having been on trial not for squandering public money (though this was the easy spin to apply), but for having lost sight of the profit motive. The military asked for wooden plane. Turns out this was a stupid request. Then he went ahead and built it … and worse, continued to perfect it until it could actually fly … long after any possibility of turning a profit was gone. What could frighten the military more than that? That any dumb request might be pursued to its illogical fruition? Terror in the military chain of supply. Terror: pure and simple. The horror. There’s a movie in it, where Sheen hunts down Dicaprio for going native, with Eva Gardiner as the romantic fulcrum and Spruce Willis as the fifth business. I could watch that.

    I’ve been quoting Taleb a fair bit, not because of raw brilliance, but because–definitely not merely because–he’s a provocative writer. A gift for useful provocation is a rare flower. Many exuberant provocateurs are deep into the Dunning–Kruger effect–and here I also wonder sometimes about myself. (I won’t riff on Kruger, but I will comment that I’ve privately nicknamed Krueger “The Ra of Elan” to be uncorked at a suitable future opportunity. Isn’t there a sublime ember of majestic oil reserves cloaked within those words in the grandest of Persian robes? This came to me after reading Woodguy unfurl the phrase “Ra Ra Ralph”. I get it, but the man is more than spastic pompoms. Elan: Putting Yakupov out there on the ice with ten seconds remaining. Krueger is not going to shelter our tender and rawboned narrative from epic swing, so help us God.)

    This paragraph is somewhat oblique plucked out of context:

    Antifragility shmantifragility. Some of the ideas about fitness and selection here are not very comfortable to this author, which makes the writing of some sections rather painful–I detest the ruthlessness of selection, the inexorable disloyalty of Mother Nature. I detest the notion of improvement thanks to harm to others. As a humanist, I stand against the antifragility of systems at the expense of individuals, for if you follow the reasoning, this makes us humans individually irrelevant.

    A fessing extraordinaire. Most unusual, and welcome to my ear. This forms the second pillar of my rebuttal to Adler (the first being my own Limerick dalliance). I won’t try to fill in the gaps of Taleb’s argument. My personal distillation of this–after setting the book aside–is that Mother Nature knows all aphorisms but one: Be Careful What You Wish For. The old bitch is not careful, and wishes come true.

    Half the books I’ve read over the past three months have at least one foot in this theme. Gluttony is the lead mare of scarcity. Beware gluttony when gluttony cuts free from the cart. You want salt? Pennies per kilo. Eat it until you lips puff up. Mmmmm, good.

    Of course, we all want to see Yakupov showing off his authentic emotion. In this matter, however, scarcity is the better part of valour. One juggler is entertainment, two jugglers a circus makes.

    I’m going to taper off my potpourri with a pot shot at the paleo diet types. They don’t seem to get it, what Taleb fesses unhappily. Mother Nature expects us to die from our newfangled diet, so that the paleo diet of the distance future is immunized–at our profound present expense and discomfort–against an excess of craving for salty chips and deep-fried Mars Bars. The glorious paleo diet wasn’t so glorious to the hominids who first descended from trees. They suffered sickness and death so that Mother Nature could apply her adaptive tweaks, not so much for their benefit, as for ours. So it turns out that in diet, as with technology, living life on the bleeding edge has a major downside: the disappointment you spare will not be your own. It will belong instead to future generations, who profit from your pains at distant remove.

    Which reminds me of one last thing: the distinction between leading indicators and lagging indicators. There was a discussion recently of advanced statistics which I didn’t have time to engage while the arrows where twanging. There was a humorous wag who offered up the observation that goals scored for and against are a great proxy for wins (with 100% correlation if you skin it right). Taleb would laugh, and not kindly. That’s a lagging indicator: it gives you a 100% correlation with previous outcomes. Coaches are widgets to turn prospective outcomes into retrospective outcomes. To do this better, rather than worse, you need prospective indicators. It happens that goals anticipated are a rather modest prospective indicator. Fluke happens.

    Galadriel: Will you look into the mirror?
    Frodo: What will I see?
    Galadriel: [stepping up to the basin] Even the wisest cannot tell. For the mirror … shows many things …
    Galadriel: …things that were, things that are, and some things [She empties the ewer and steps back] that have not yet come to pass.

    Forward indicators are like that.

    Hopefully there will be a quiet afternoons from time to time in the dipping-bird schedule, so I can plunk myself down on my favourite stool–the one with privileged access to the mixed nuts–to hold forth on nothing in particular.

    No, come to think of it, the only “Brazil” will be the neon sign in the front window after the Terry Gilliam Cheers makeover. My favorite chair will have privileged access to the giant bowl of wobbly aspic Jello cubes. There will be a garish excess of drooping accordion ductwork, and beers will arrive with a scary schhhhhtunk.

    But wait, there’s one more:

    Why You Truly Never Leave High School

    In a post I wrote the other day–perhaps exposing myself more than I ought to–I spoke about my use of the writing process to reconnect my present self with that part of my life history. This link showed up on Aldaily the following morning. It’s extremely well written. I could quote a lot, but this snippet LT should like:

    Our self-image from those years, in other words, is especially adhesive. So, too, are our preferences. “There’s no reason why, at the age of 60, I should still be listening to the Allman Brothers,” Steinberg says. “Yet no matter how old you are, the music you listen to for the rest of your life is probably what you listened to when you were an adolescent.” Only extremely recent advances in neuroscience have begun to help explain why.

    Oh yes, I had a thought passing through about engagement with mythic forces. Sports provides access to a living mythic narrative. LOTR also plays around with the mythic. Oh god, it’s all flooding back. Too many things to say.

    I was marveling on my last viewing of the LOTR cycle on Jackson’s fetish with the dental reveal: all the baddies expose a tooth lined gastric chasm, immediately before being speared not a moment too soon. WTF? Bite Gimli before he grabs your scurvy ears and nuts you in the scruffy snout. They never do. Here’s the thing: Biting is a sexual act. The Warg is not going to spoil his special moment by biting without first achieving nether engorgement. Engorge, gore, gorge. That’s how it goes.

    The main exception to this in the 2nd movie is the Balrog. The Balrog engorges without showing teeth, by means of an inner furnace blast. This is why Gandalf declares “This foe is beyond any of you.” Without baddies that pause to showboat their massive dentition, the ranks of The Fellowship would grow thin in short order. Concerning the vampire mythic, Jackson knows no shame.

    But he does evince shame elsewhere. There are scattered Ewok moments, and these moments are edited to the opposite standard: cut so quickly, you hardly gain visual comprehension of the surrounding space. One such scene is the Hobbits wielding frying pans as a combat weapon against the cave troll brigade. Another is the young boy two-handing head-sized rocks down upon the Orc battering ram crew at the inner barricade of Helm’s Deep. Jackson wishes to hug the Ewoks, but doesn’t wish to be seen doing so, and not because Mr Five Endings fears to linger on emotional goodbyes.

    No, he’s fighting his anima on another level.

    Best to end here: the mythic subtext of the Lowetide forum is far too large a subject to address in this tiny post. For a while, I’ll be a little less Norm around these parts.

  38. Lowetide says:

    Two things:

    1. The Jennifer Senior article is genius.
    2. Adler reminds me of a period in the late 70s/early 80s when HNIC had a second period feature about hockey in europe. I would watch it, hopeful that there would be something there–hell I LIKED finding out about Euro hockey–but it was presented in a fashion that was not informative and eventually made me resent the host and make that my beer break. Adler seems to choose the road less travelled in arguments and THEN attempt to thread a defense of the position. And there are people who can do that, but he’s not one of them (I’m not one of them either).

  39. hunter1909 says:

    DeadmanWaking: no matter how old you are, the music you listen to for the rest of your life is probably what you listened to when you were an adolescent.” Only extremely recent advances in neuroscience have begun to help explain why.

    LOL at this typically psychology/sociology Dept doublespeak/non-think.

    Young people in HS are experiencing their first flush of adulthood. A declining civilization’s dismissal of it’s young has left these crazies to their own devices, and presto! The most obnoxious things – from sagging pants to committing vandalism suddenly becomes the object of superconscious desire.

    Add this to the fact these kids are also at their absolute strongest in terms of overall health if not fitness, are all set to experience SEX, and suddenly years of parental neglect shine forth as the formerly quiet kid morphs into a raging head case, ready to don the warrior way.

    Then, when the warrior opines from marriage+ mortgage slavery-land at 35 years old, those long gone carefree days are slowly magnified into a Hollywood-hype-style story of selfsame slob’s life.

    This is why the nostalgia industry is big business.

  40. bookjLe says:

    Lowetide:
    Two things:

    1. The Jennifer Senior article is genius.
    2. Adler reminds me of a period in the late 70s/early 80s when HNIC had a second period feature about hockey in europe. I would watch it, hopeful that there would be something there–hell I LIKED finding out about Euro hockey–but it was presented in a fashion that was not informative and eventually made me resent the host and make that my beer break. Adler seems to choose the road less travelled in arguments and THEN attempt to thread a defense of the position. And there are people who can do that, but he’s not one of them (I’m not one of them either).

    Adler is terrible and the world would be a better place if he took up painting and gave up writing.

  41. VOR says:

    rickithebear,

    I had sort of assumed that you and Captain Happy knew that the NHL used to collect zone time stats and published them in the 2001-2002 season. They may still be collecting the data for all we know. One theory for why they may still be collecting and disbursing the info to teams but not to the public is that it showed that the puck often spent big chunks of the game in neutral ice.

    However, for the season of data that we do have corsi correlates at r=.91 which is a very high correlation. Thus, pending a larger data set the evidence says that corsi for a team is highly corrrelated with possession by that team.

    We also know that 3 different metrics have reasonable (if not great correlations) to winning percentage both within a season and through three seasons of data. Corsi works the best during a single season, particularly once you allow for score effects. Over three seasons of data shot percentage and fenwick are better predictiors. By the way shot percentage shouldn’t be confused with shooting percentage. Shot percentage is the total of shots for divided by the sum of shots for and shots against expressed as a %.

    Shooting percentage does not correlate well at all with winning. Thus, there is no sound argument in the existing evidence that measuring shot quality would have the slightest value. That is assuming you could do it in the first place. You still haven’t suggested what parameters we would measure to determine shot quality beyond ones that you have yet to prove have anything to do with shot outcome. You don’t know if type of shot and where you take it from are dependent or independent variables or as I said causative in outcomes.

    So why should anybody take you or Captain Happy seriously in your criticisms of corsi since you have no evidence at all for your position whereas your opponents have considerable amounts of evidence?

  42. dessert1111 says:

    Regarding this:

    Yet no matter how old you are, the music you listen to for the rest of your life is probably what you listened to when you were an adolescent.” Only extremely recent advances in neuroscience have begun to help explain why.

    FWIW, I learned that we listen to music from our adolescence and tend to have our most vivid memories from that part of life because it’s when our “higher functions” are developing in our frontal lobes. Apparently our brains develop until ~25 and are most sensitive to our environments until then. With puberty and emergence into adulthood, we experience emotional fluctuations that code vividly in our brains because of hormones and their novelty.

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