JANUARY BARONS

It had been my hope that once the NHL players left OKC the prospects would rise to the top. That has happened, but the “opposite George” emergence of the players selected past #100 in the entry draft has been real and spectacular. Betting on prospects developing in a straight line is never a good bet, but this season’s winners have come from the far reaches of the draft or unsigned free agents, suggesting “draft pedigree” is the ultimate maginot line.

arterton1

Once Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle left Dodge City, guys like Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton should have won the skill jobs walking away. Despite not being close to the NHL guys, those men are 2nd round draft picks and Hamilton had a huge junior season in the year after he was drafted by the Oilers. MBS picked them partly for their skill, but this season looks like it might finish what last season started: the 2010 entry draft might be down to Taylor Hall and Martin Marincin.

And then we hear a voice from the cheap seats: not so fast!

 JANUARY BARONS: FORWARDS

  1. Toni Rajala 8, 3-4-7 -2
  2. Ryan Martindale 8, 3-3-6 +1
  3. Josh Green 12, 3-4-7 -8
  4. Mark Arcobello 12, 3-4-7 -15
  5. Anton Lander 12, 1-3-4 -9
  6. Antti Tyrvainen 3, 1-1-2 +1
  7. Jonathan Cheechoo 3, 0-2-2 -3
  8. Phil Cornet 5, 2-0-2 -1
  9. Dane Byers 12, 1-1-2 -4
  10. Kristians Pelss 7, 0-2-2 -1
  11. Tyler Pitlick 8, 0-2-2 -7
  12. Tanner House 9, 1-0-1 -2
  13. Erick Lizon 8, 0-0-0 E
  14. Curtis Hamilton 8, 0-0-0 -4
  15. Chris VandeVelde 10, 0-0-0 -5

Prospects in bold, and the the guy who got called up (and then sent back) ranks 15th on the list so goals and assists aren’t 100% of the prospect grade. Having said that, the 2nd round picks rank #5 (Lander), #11 (Pitlick) and #14 (Hamilton) on the list; at the top, #1 (Rajala) was selected 101st in 2009; #2 (Martindale) was taken 61st in 2010; #6 (Tyrvainen) was a free agent signing; #8 (Cornet) was taken 133rd in 2008; #10 (Pelss) was taken 181st in 2010; #12 was a college free agent signing.

The prospect performance is Opposite George, its “chicken salad on rye, untoasted with a side of potato salada and a cup of tea.”  The has come for bald men with no jobs and no money who live with their parents to approach strange, beautiful women!

JANUARY BARONS: BLUE

  1. Taylor Fedun 12, 0-4-4 -5
  2. Brett Clark 3, 0-2-2 -2
  3. Martin Martincin 10, 1-1-2 +1
  4. Alex Plante 4, 0-1-1 E
  5. Colten Teubert 10, 1-0-1 -9
  6. Nathan Deck 12, 0-1-1 -8
  7. Andrew Hotham 6, 0-0-0 +1
  8. Kane Lafranchise 9, 0-0-0 -10

Prospects in bold, and once again the guy at #1 (Fedun) is not the second rounder. Now, Marincin is a 2nd rd pick and is at #3 on the list, and we can see that his plus minus is the best on the list. Still, I’d say Fedun is the guy who is closer to the NHL but do expect Marincin is the better long term prospect. Teubert was not part of the solution (can you believe these minus numbers) and Deck performed well enough as an OKC signing to be considered a prospect (that’s my opinion, there’s a good chance he’ll be on the Tulupov plan come spring).

JANUARY BARONS: G

  1. Olivier Roy 9, 2.81 .893
  2. Tyler Bunz 1, 10.56, .667

Both of these goalies were picked past #100 in their respective drafts, so there’s no pedigree worry here. Roy actually has improved his performance (he made an amazing save this weekend, perhaps the best save made by a Baron goalie this season), but Bunz needs to conquer the ECHL before climbing up to Coors.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I count 16 worthy prospects on this list. During the 2012 winter Top 20, I ranked them thusly:

  • #4 Martin Marincin
  • #9 Tyler Pitlick
  • #11 Anton Lander
  • #14 Tyler Bunz
  • #16 Olivier Roy
  • #17 Colten Teubert
  • #18 Taylor Fedun
  • #19 Curtis Hamilton
  • #24 Kristians Pelss
  • #25 Mark Arcobello
  • #26 Toni Rajala
  • #27 Chris VandeVelde
  • #28 Ryan Martindale
  • #29 Phil Cornet

Deck and House were not included in the December list. From the group of 14 I listed in the top 30 overall, Marincin, Lander and Roy have done some things to move the arrow in a good direction.

The list of good arrows? Fedun, Pelss, Arcobello, Rajala, Martindale and Cornet.

The summer top 20 is going to be an interesting list.

Finally, Pitlick. Jim Matheson’s story is cause for concern, and Jonathan Willis did a nice job of describing his season which oh by the way also included a concussion. Who knows if the injury will have long term impact, but for me he was the most likely prospect in the group to grab an NHL job (3 or 4line RW) in the future. Marincin looks like a future top 6 based on his resume (including junior and his first AHL season) but that’s down the road and as we know injury can impact these kids.

A very discouraging 120 days in OKC for the Oilers prospects.  There is time to recover for some and others have traction now in the AHL. Come fall training camp we might not be talking about Pitlick and Hamilton but rather Rajala, Martindale and Fedun.

That’s why they play the games.

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23 Responses to "JANUARY BARONS"

  1. Captain Happy says:

    What with the decorations, do you really expect anyone to read and digest all those numbers?

  2. Lowetide says:

    I admit that photo of Pitlick is a good one.

  3. jzed says:

    I didn’t know Pitlick had a hot sister…..
    Nice to get away from the Mayan crowd after the game last night, if the lockout taught me anything , to get worked up about a pro hockey team’s performance is an utter waste of time.
    As far as the Barons go, seem to be getting blown out lately. I take it Clark(e?) hasn’t been the steadying influence we hoped for , or is it rookie goalie pains? Not, that it matters to me, of course.

  4. sliderule says:

    I was surprised when Martindale didn’t stick with the Barons as he looked good at development camp.

    In junior he was ranked as best face-off man in OHL and I have heard he has done well at that in AHL .
    With his big body he might end up being a decent third or fourth line center.Last year with his late birthday he probably should have stayed the extra year in junior.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Jzed: I’ve watched several games and for me its a combination of things, including defensive coverage by the defense and defensive coverage by the forwards, penalty kill, goaltending that can’t save the mistakes (Danis), lack of offense outside the PP, underperforming veterans and guys like Hamilton and Pitlick who didn’t step up when the NHLers left town.

    They are not alone, however. Arcobello is the only one of the three vets (Green, byers) who has been consistent–and that’s including his atrocious plus minus this month.

    They need a five day training camp imo.

  6. Captain Happy says:

    Lowetide,

    Did you notice the sour expression of the dame on the left?

    Not that I’m staring or anything :)

  7. Lowetide says:

    CH: After the first 400 views you’ll notice there’s a tree there too. :-)

  8. Captain Happy says:

    Great opportunity to see a few of the other Calder candidates later today.

    Tarasenko and the Blues up against Granlund and Brodin on NBC.

  9. Nostradumbass says:

    Is it concerning that 3 annointed prospects; Hamilton, Pitlick and Lander seemed to be kept on the Barons through the lockout via pedigree while our ECHL designates, Rajala, Martindale, Pelss and even Cornet seem to better pros at the moment?

  10. jfry says:

    from now on i’m going to be upset when i see the oilers avoiding drafting pure skill for “unknowns”. our second round draft picks really aren’t doing anything to help our depth at this point.

    how has musil looked lately for OK?

  11. Lowetide says:

    Nostradumbass:
    Is it concerning that 3 annointed prospects; Hamilton, Pitlick and Lander seemed to be kept on the Barons through the lockout via pedigree while our ECHL designates, Rajala, Martindale, Pelss and even Cornet seem to better pros at the moment?

    Sure. The Oilers needed offense and certainly Pitlick has been used (and I believe Hamilton too) in an offensive role but the production wasn’t there. Rajala, Martindale and Pelss are eating their lunch–maybe part of it comes from playing an offensive role in Stockton.

    But Hamilton seems to be spending the second yearof his entry level deal as a 3-4line guy who penalty-kills. Maybe he should ask to play a month in Stockton, sure worked for Pelss, Rajala and the others.

  12. Lowetide says:

    jfry:
    from now on i’m going to be upset when i see the oilers avoiding drafting pure skill for “unknowns”. our second round draft picks really aren’t doing anything to help our depth at this point.

    how has musil looked lately for OK?

    good from what I’ve seen, he’s certainly a capable WHL defender. The big issue for him when he turns pro will be foot speed. He can play you if he can catch you.

  13. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    I admit that photo of Pitlick is a good one.

    Cheeky.

  14. jake70 says:

    I see Arcobello in the skills comp. at the AHL AS game. Guessing he is the only Baron there?

  15. Lowetide says:

    Jake: Yeah, suspect they would have had a half dozen there if the lockout was still on. Thank you Baby Jesus!

  16. BONVIE says:

    Nostradumbass:
    Is it concerning that 3 annointed prospects; Hamilton, Pitlick and Lander seemed to be kept on the Barons through the lockout via pedigree while our ECHL designates, Rajala, Martindale, Pelss and even Cornet seem to better pros at the moment?

    Those players were sent down for a reason, and that is if they make it to the NHL it wont be as a role type players, and it would have done nothing for their development to sit or play on the 4th line. Vandevelde and Hamilton are two-way types that can learn their role on the AHL club. Sending Rajalla, Martindale, and Cornet down was a success.

    The Organization is wise if they let these prospects down in OKC work things out, as far as depth charts. Eventually the cream will rise to the top. They should not provide this team with any more veteran help. I think its sink or swim for players like Cornet , Lander, Hamilton, Pitlick, VandeVelde, Fedun, Teubert. These players need to step up at the AHL level and show they can play.

  17. misfit says:

    I’m still hoping for Martindale to make something of himself. He was a guy I thought was a legitimate option to go with our 2nd rounder that year (either one of them). When we got him in the 3rd, I was thrilled. I really hope he’s able to run with this for a while, though he’s still a longshot to have an NHL career.

    I know pundits across the board applauded Pitlick’s move from NCAA to the CHL, and you certainly can’t argue with the numbers he put up with the Tigers, but I just can’t help thinking he might’ve been better off staying on the college track.

  18. Ribs says:

    Go Rajala Go!

  19. Ribs says:

    Gemma is a gem, as well!

  20. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I started reading this post yesterday afternoon, and finally made it all the way down to the comments section.

    LT, you’re right, there IS a tree in there.

  21. dessert1111 says:

    Curious as to why you have a guy like Tanner House listed as a prospect and Arcobello listed as a vet.

    Arcobello is a third year pro and is 2 years younger.

    House is a 2nd year pro and not as good of a player.

    Regardless, it certainly is wacky down there. Deck has only gotten one point this month which is a bit concerning — I think the J Schultz impact was very real and huge. Fedun still looks the best of the lot to me, followed by Deck then I guess Teubert and Marincin (two more-defined role players, not as well-rounded). Wonder how the Oilers see it. None of these prospects are exciting me too much though.

  22. denny33 says:

    I have been saying this for a while….the numbers associated with Curtis Hamilton and Tyler Pitclick are so abysmal that nothing needs to be said really.

    Normally, I would lambaste Oilers managment but with the exception of Justin Falk – it would appear it was an unlucky year to have 2 2nd rounders to draft.

    As a side note – people are already talking about this current draft being as deep as the 2003 one.

    Hoping Oilers managment does not make any deals where we lose picks in this draft.

    I beleive someone referenced this as well. The question has to be asked how these players are in earning a spot with an AHL team.

  23. gcw_rocks says:

    Just wait until Moroz arrives! He’s like Hamilton without the offense! Oh, wait, that’s not going to be good. Not good at all.

    They had better figure out how to get the most out of Martindale and then Reider next year, because this prospect pool is really really suferring at forward.

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