RALPH’S DEPLOYMENT OF THE TROOPS

As one might expect, Ralph Krueger’s armed forces played the big minutes last night in the first game of the 12-13 season. If we made a list of logical TOI for each player and line, I don’t think we’d find much out of place.

FORWARDS EV TOI

  1. Taylor Hall 17:59
  2. Jordan Eberle 17:52
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 16:43
  4. Sam Gagner 12:41
  5. Ales Hemsky 12:36
  6. Nail Yakupov 12:23
  7. Shawn Horcoff 9:35
  8. Ryan Smyth 9:34
  9. Eric Belanger 8:25
  10. Lennart Petrell 7:11
  11. Ben Eager 6:18
  12. Teemu Hartikainen 6:10

That’s fairly textbook. You could argue (and I did) that the 2line needed to play more but Krueger’s stars played the bulk of the available even strength minutes, and the guy who pushes the river played the most minutes. There’s no JF Jacques here, no Anton Lander either. Maybe its the short training camp and the fact there was no chance to crown a darling, but that’s a fine use of the forward lineup.

nail5

FORWARDS PP TOI

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 4:29
  2. Ales Hemsky 4:13
  3. Nail Yakupov 3:57
  4. Shawn Horcoff 3:56
  5. Jordan Eberle 3:37
  6. Ryan Smyth 3:27
  7. Taylor Hall 3:21
  8. Sam Gagner 3:05

All 8 forwards played significant PP minutes (it was one of those games, we shouldn’t expect this kind of activity every night) and Krueger once again used his best player in the discipline as much as possible. I thought the Nuge was lagging a little, telegraphing passes and lacking his usual PP genius, but the fact remains that the coach gave him every opportunity to make it happen. Hemskyand Yakupov–two more terrific options–came in second and third. I was surprised to see Ryan Smyth get so much PP time, but then again Hartikainen didn’t get any so those minutes may move around during the season.

FORWARDS PK TOI

  1. Shawn Horcoff 5:36
  2. Ryan Smyth 5:36
  3. Eric Belanger 3:40
  4. Lennart Petrell 3:40
  5. Jordan Eberle 0:44
  6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0:44

The two veterans played an enormous amount of time on the PK–I don’t think we’ll see 5.5 minutes of PK from two guys in one game for awhile–and then two 4liners get a huge slice of PK minutes and that’s a good idea if they can do it. Belanger looked like a different player out there last night, lets hope it continues. About the only thing that doesn’t make a lot of sense on the entire forward list is the Nuge-Eberle PK time. If it was 6 seconds we could chalk it up to getting off the ice, but 44 seconds is half a penalty kill so maybe he sees something in them we don’t see.

DEFENSE EV TOI

  1. Ladislav Smid 16:49
  2. Justin Schultz 16:35
  3. Jeff Petry16:19
  4. Ryan Whitney 16:10
  5. Nick Schultz 15:26
  6. Corey Potter 13:33

Fairly even among the top 5 with Potter lagging, I was impressed with Schultz the younger in his debut. He’s certainly a rookie, but very mobile and a guy who is in the right place more often than you’d expect of someone who has no NHL experience. Schultz the elder should get some credit for that, he was a rock for the club at even strength last night. Steve Smith mentioned in the comments section that Jeff Petry reminded him of Tom Gilbert at the same age and that’s a really good comp. One of the highlights of the game came on a sequence where Petry crushed a VAN winger and then Smid ended the play with a very physical goalmouth clearance of the enemy.

schultzj

DEFENSE PP TOI

  1. Justin Schultz 3:47
  2. Ryan Whitney 3:46
  3. Jeff Petry 0:11
  4. Ladislav Smid 0:01

If there are 8 forwards with big PP minutes, it makes sense the defensemen aren’t going to get a lot of time in the discipline. I think Petry could certainly step into that role (although you’ll see in a moment he was busy elsewhere) and Potter is someone who played a lot on the PP a year ago (2:28 per game) but he didn’t make the grade on this night.

DEFENSE PK TOI

  1. Jeff Petry 6:12
  2. Ladislav Smid 4:02
  3. Corey Potter 4:02
  4. Nick Schultz 3:19
  5. Ryan Whitney 1:55
  6. Justin Schultz 0:30

Petry led the defense in TOI and this is why. The PK was very effective on the night and Petry’s efforts were a big part of it. Smid and Potter also played a lot on the PK and Schultz was the 4th. Whitney is the only defenseman to get big minutes in all three disciplines, but that might be a reflection of Petry’s usage here and Schultz’s inexperience. Basically I’m saying that at some point Petry or Schultz the younger may be taking minutes from Whitney, as both have “complete” defenseman’s skills.

Lots of positives on the night–solid in the FO circle (even the Nuge) and lots of shots from the people you want to see shooting (Eberle 5, Gagner, Horcoff 4, Hall 3) and Devan Dubnyk’s stat line (.931SP, including saving all 8 pp shots).

 

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133 Responses to "RALPH’S DEPLOYMENT OF THE TROOPS"

  1. DBO says:

    Not sure if we could ask for more in a 1st game. Rust was evident, but they continued to use their speed and pressure. I hope they roll Fistric in more then Potter. Potter was OK, but if he isn’t getting PP time, then you aren’t using him to his strength, o put in the mean SOB that kills penalties instead.

    Lack of Hartikainen use was unfortunate, but when he played he was physical and brings a dimension we lack outside the 4th line. Looks like Krueger will happily play the 4th line like a checking line, and if they play like they did yesterday then that will work just fine, especially as the season rolls on and tired old dudes start to lag.

    JFJ traded to Tampa. Now for the Pouliot watch.

  2. dessert1111 says:

    I remember a sequence towards the beginning of the game where both Schultz were chasing a Canuck into a corner on Dubnyk’s right, and I could hear N Schultz yell “I got him!” and J Schultz immediately backed off, just in time to pick up the trailer and get back into position in the slot area. N Schultz played a great game and I don’t know why we don’t talk more about him being a legitimate top 4 option. He always looks solid to me and it’s nice to see him not getting overplayed but I think if it came down to it he could have taken an extra minute at evens and PK to bump Whitney and Potter down a peg.

    Overall, like you said, a pretty reasonable deployment, and the vast majority of Oilers did their jobs quite well. A pleasant surprise!

  3. russ99 says:

    Hope to see Fistric in for Potter on Tuesday.

  4. Ryan says:

    Nuge certainly looked off last night, but he did log some tough minutes. Interesting to see the kids thrown to the Sedins in the d zone.

    The second line has some nice offensive potential, but it’s scary to think of Hemsky as the defensively responsible player on that line.

    Gagner was full value for the second goal against though some blamed Yakupov or Whitney.

    Whitney’s ankles are officially done though he still has a beauty of an outlet pass.

    Justin Schultz certainly looks like a calm presence and love the confident glow in his eyes.

    Eberle’s goal was ridiculous. Face facts, whatever his shooting percentage works out to, I can’t think of anyone else playing the game today who scores that goal. Completely ridiculous hands in tight to the goalie.

    Still think the Oilers could use a more complete 2nd line Center.

    Potter’s an AHL hockey player.

    Fun game and mad skill in the lineup.

    The old men looked good not having to do the heavy lifting and Hemsky is going to kill these minutes if he can stay healthy.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    Schultz the Younger. Now that’s a nickname!

    Team played really well last night – like they’re going places. Storm back from 2-0 down, at the home rink of the 2x defending Presidents Trophy winners? Then beat them in OT?

    Leaves their shit fans wondering, which is the best thing of all.

  6. Ryan says:

    Oh and Dan Petry’s kid is a complete stud.

  7. sliderule says:

    On the first goal Potter got caught going the wrong way tried to hustle back then over backed in to his own end.

    On the second goal Whitney was running around lost position and got caught in no mans land .Willis was blaming Yakupov but Ralph in post game said he was doing exactly what they wanted him to do pressure the puck. Without naming names he placed the blame to the responsible parties who lost position and coverage.

    I hope Willis isn’t going to make Yak the scapegoat on every report like he was doing with Marcinin in the AHL .

  8. goldenchild says:

    I was at the game last night, a few things that stood out to me

    Breakouts/passing- Being in Vancouver I only get to 2 maybe 3 Oiler games a year but i cant remember the puck moving as crisply from our end and out. The breakouts had structure, forwards were coming back with purpose and the puck moved quickly and accurately. We seem a long way away from the Staios ring around the glass, aimed at Laddys head.
    The passing was at times sublime, not so much long stretch passes but especially with the first 2 lines it was the short quick passes in tight spaces, tape to tape puck on ice all night. One of LT’s fav attributes ability to make a passand take pass, this team is full of those guys now and they do it at high speed. Just a treat to watch.

    Hockey IQ- The speed and skill on this team is striking and obvious to everyone but seeing them live I was blown away by how many guys are able to think the game and put themselves in prime positions to take a pass and scoring zones. For years we talked about Hemmer finding smoeone who could think the game at his level and now the team is full of them. Nuge wasnt great last night but twice found himself in pt blank spots. J. Schultz seemed to be 1 pass away from tap in goals 2 or 3 times , Eberle diving down on the PP for the accross the crease pass from Hall and Yakupov a number of times found open space.

    Dubnyk plays too deep in his net for my liking, not sure if that was just the first game nerves or how he intends to play but for such a large goalie there was too much net to shoot at. That being said he was great in the 3rd during those Canuck PP’s, the PK as a whole was terrific.

    I would prefer Paajarvi to 56 on that 3rd line, I get the front office is dissapointed hes not a great goal scorer, im not sure you can teach that but if he becomes Dvorak that isnt bad. Playing with 10-94 is th perfect learning ground, his speed would be a huge addition to that line.

    J.Schultz is going to get all the attention on the blueline this year but Petry looked fantastic, really becoming a complete dman back there.

    Coming back down 2 on a veteran team that knows how to win and his a blueline full of B and B+ players is a great sign, easily the most fun Ive had wearing Oiler colors in GM place in a long time.

    PS-Sorry for long post

  9. Bos8 says:

    What I think is crucial is that the two Schultzs play together all season, which is as it should be. Talk about nice training wheels. The bonus is that younger is smart enough to learn. I do like a quiet defenceman. Don’t give me excitement on D, give me efficiency – move along nothing to see here. I think as time goes on, fans will begin to appreciate the Elder, more and more.

  10. DBO says:

    Brett Clark signed to PTO. Copper and Blue retweeted OKC writer. Nice pick up. another smart move to help with the AHL depth, not to mention Clark is an option for the big club if needed.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Goldenchild: Great post, and you’re right. Passing was outstanding, and it seemed getting out of the zone–Pat Quinn’s self created nightmare–was a distant bell.

    As for the Nuge, I’m re-watching the game and holy hell he had a lot of plays that almost worked. Its funny, the guy has been an Oiler for a year and my expectations are through the roof. Re-watching, I think he had a run of bad luck combined with a couple of near misses on net.

  12. goldenchild says:

    1 more thing and full disclosure I am a Hemsky Stan, but if he stays healthy and plays all year with Gagner and Yakupov , all the body language and first off the ice guys are gonna have a real hard time convincing people he’s the problem. Hemmer seems poised for a monster season and I cant wait to watch.

    LT thanks and I agree a couple of bounces for Nuge and he has another one of those 2 pt games where he doesnt even play that great that he made the norm last year.

  13. raventalon40 says:

    Lowetide,

    I think the 44 seconds of PK were at the tail end of the two kills when Krueger tried to get the kids out with Hall stepping out of the box.

  14. Jonathan Willis says:

    sliderule,

    Actually, you’ll note that I didn’t blame the goal on Yakupov. My exact quote was “played a contributing role” and in the comments section I spelled my view of the goal out exactly:

    “On the second goal, Yakupov wasn’t out of position, I agree. Krueger highlighted the way he challenged Sedin – and he did – but momentarily behind the net Yakupov gained possession but he couldn’t keep it. There’s no shame in losing a puck battle – particularly given that Sedin had the puck and Yakupov was engaging to try and take it away – but if he’d won the battle behind the net there certainly wouldn’t have been a goal. Again: primary blame falls on Whitney and Gagner; Yakupov was just an auxiliary contributor. ”

    Also: I think my record on Yakupov speaks for itself. In recent months I’ve suggested he could be the best of the number ones, hailed his work in the KHL, and commented that his tournament play doesn’t reflect his total level of ability. I like the player; I just thought he had a slightly below average game on Sunday, based on what I saw in the KHL. If you feel like lumping me in with the Russian-hating mainstream, that’s your business, but I don’t think I “scapegoated” anyone.

    As for Marincin, you can whine about my grades all you want, but it was Todd Nelson that bumped him from the first pairing to the third pairing to the pressbox. Maybe he was coaching the team from my player grades, but maybe – and I’m just spitballing here – maybe he was reacting to the player’s poor performance.

  15. Bar_Qu says:

    Lowetide,

    goldenchild,

    Isn’t that the value of Corsi? To confirm that though pucks didn’t go in the net, the player was making things happen the right way? Nuge and co. were fighting the Sedins to a standstill last night and ending up having a bunch of good chances too, leaving space for Hemsky to do his thing – the two dangerous scoring lines we have been pining for forever. There is not a lot of teams in the league who will be able to throw good D-pairs out every time one of the top two lines is out either.

    And I totally agree on the PRV thing. If he was with Horcoff and Smyth, that line kills too. I loved seeing Petrell on the PK along with Belanger, but I don’t think the Oil hurt any worse with Harski playing the fourth line instead of Petrell (or Eager for that matter).

    Forward depth! Who knew it would be valuable.

    Oh, and BTW, my 6 yr old was delighted with the outcome. Hopefully the Oil keep him in smiles most of the season.

  16. leadfarmer says:

    That defense sure moved the puck out of the zone a lot better. If this keeps up the transition game is going to be very good this year. This team is going to have a lot of oddman chances.

    Horcoff needs to bury one of those chances, but got to give him credit for getting those chances in the first place. His minutes didnt seem like they got any easier from last year but hopefully the amount of stupid penalties go down.

    Dubnyk was solid. First goal against was a well placed hard shot. Dont blame him too much for that.

    Yak looked really good for first game. Was even decent in his own end. That one timer will score him alot of goals.

    N. Schultz was very solid. If he keeps this up and with the emergence of Petry I dont mind that Gilbert trade quite as much.

    Defense also did a good job of clearing bodies near the crease. Fistric will also help in that department.

  17. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Nice to get the W, but I wasn’t as pleased with the game as most around these parts. DD kept them in it in the 1st then some bad goals by Luuuu let them back in it otherwise mostly deer in the headlights all around for the first half of the game until Van tired out. I wasn’t that impressed with the Canucks either – looked tired in the 3rd / OT, I guess rightfully so.
    Whoever was logging faceoff wins was drunk. Belanger should be the only one over 50% – great game by him btw – this was the guy that I thought the Oilers traded for. Horc won maybe 3 draws all night. His draws on the forehand are so predictable and have little to no chance of success the way he’s holding his stick. I thought he looked very slow for the first half of the game, but finished ok. He has to finish at least one of his many chances – He beat that dam Orca on Luu’s chest to death.

    4 line – wow – they were the Oil’s best line for the first period. Best game by an Oiler 4th line since 06 playoffs?

    Hall – got stronger as the game went along, but bad penalties.

    Normally the Van PP would have had the game in the bag given that many opportunities. Lots of open point shots from the Van PP – DD had great positioning all night, especially when he didn’t see some of the shots from the point.

    Petry was a stud – Liked the aggressiveness overall by the Oil D

    Whitney looks like he’s skating not to hurt something – good thing he can pass

  18. OilClog says:

    Schultz the Eldest had 9 bl

  19. Lowetide says:

    ocked shots.

  20. Ryan says:

    Some bloggers like Derek Zona are too smart to see the obvious.

    Pretty much everyone at Oilersnation credited eager for the value of the Kassian fight.

    Really, it’s simple math.

    Trading 5 minutes of Eager for 5 minutes of Kassian is a win every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

  21. jake70 says:

    89, 83, 4, 14, 64, 93…you can mix these guys up all day long in any way you want in overtime, nice options to have. Too bad the OTs are only 5min.

  22. jfry says:

    Ryan,

    That was the mantra for many last night, but kassian has showed barely anything at the NHL level, to the point where the van fans are even making fun of their second line. Eager for kassian is basically a draw. Some might have seen him good last night because he got a goal, but kassian is a lot more like eager than he is like lucic. Once Kessler and booth are back and lounge is sent away for forwards I think we’ll see very similar stat lines for eager and the big kid kassian. Last night it was a bigger win for the oil, but that just shows the limited offensive talent the Canucks have — their lines 2-4 reminded me of the oilers under Quinn. Dismal. Although I did like that Weise kid.

  23. sliderule says:

    Willis

    I guess I touched a nerve with Marcinin comment but I dint think any oiler deserved a four last night.

    I have looked at the replay several times and though Yakupovs stick may have brushed the puck there was certainly no control.

    I love reading your grades first thing after the game but you can see I don’t always agree with them.

  24. Lowetide says:

    I don’t mind the Eager-Kassian fight, although it is true EDM had it going their way at the time. I especially like it if the fight was an answer to the Hall hit earlier. I’m not as blood thirsty as I was as a young man, but bottom line is that Edmonton has been bullied by VAN, CAL and MIN for almost the entire lockout.

    Oilers now have TWO ways to make things right:

    1. Good to great PP
    2. Enough guys who can give it back. I don’t mean fights, but in Eager, Hartikainen, Smid, Schultz the elder and now Fistric there are more guys who can play the game and dish it out too. Eager last night was good enough for my team.

  25. mc79hockey says:

    Bruce went and checked the game tape after the game because we were wondering about the RNH/Eberle PK time. The guy doing the TOI screwed up – he has Eberle/RNH coming off for Horc/Smyth at 0:07 and then Eberle/RNH killing the first 44 seconds of the PP. Didn’t happen.

    Oh well. At least if he’s busy botching the stats, he isn’t lighting a cop car on fire.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The TOI difference between Petry and Smid is accounted for by Smid’s penalty. I imagine if Petry took a penalty we’d see their TOI reversed.

    If you want to pick on someone about the Kassian goal… it’s not JW, it Matheson. he’s the one who tweeted this:

    https://twitter.com/NHLbyMatty/status/293200000085803008

    only to take the K comments as a rebuke later:

    https://twitter.com/NHLbyMatty/status/293258437905768449

    I take it that’s the origin of the complaint… the blame properly lies with Whitney, a dash of Gagner and the sick talent of those Sedins.

    I liked the fight myself. That Kassian is a grade-A meathead and so is Eager, but he’s our meathead. It was a bit contrived, but still felt in line with the emotion of the game, or a least it did to me… I was kinda on the hate edge there for a while.

  27. Lowetide says:

    mc79hockey:
    Bruce went and checked the game tape after the game because we were wondering about the RNH/Eberle PK time.The guy doing the TOI screwed up – he has Eberle/RNH coming off for Horc/Smyth at 0:07 and then Eberle/RNH killing the first 44 seconds of the PP.Didn’t happen.

    Oh well. At least if he’s busy botching the stats, he isn’t lighting a cop car on fire.

    Well, for crying out loud. Really? Hahaa. That’s very cool. As an aside, who does the TOI tracking etc and is he/she a hockey fan? Because its pretty important to get it right.

  28. mc79hockey says:

    The NHL has people in house who do it. It’s sort of weird, almost as if the guy realized he’d screwed up and taken RNH/Eberle off so he made up for it by crediting them with some time on the PK. Moron.

  29. rickithebear says:

    Bar_Qu: Isn’t that the value of Corsi? To confirm that though pucks didn’t go in the net, the player was making things happen the right way?

    No it is a poor measure of pucks directed at the net.
    The result (goals) is agood measure of Success.
    The average shots per game variance is 27-33 Shots.

    The real work to make corsi valuable is it not be shots.
    But pucks directed at net..
    Break up the pucks directed into analyzed pucks:
    1. EV/PK/PP
    2. phase of directed puck (first/second/third/rebound)
    3. location of release of puck
    4. path of puck (clear, Screened, Deflected)
    5. result of path (on net/wide/Post/blocked))
    6. Results for on net
    a. Saved:(blocker, Glove, right/Left Pad, R/L Shoulder, Helmet)
    b. Goal:(type Goal/Own Goal)
    c. (Goal Holes)
    the One-Hole, located at the corner of the net on the ice on the goaltender’s stick side.
    the Two-Hole, located at the corner of the net on the ice on the goaltender’s glove side.
    the Three-Hole, located on the goaltender’s glove side, near the upper crossbar.
    the Four-Hole, located on the goaltender’s stick side, near the upper crossbar.
    the Five-Hole, located between the goaltender’s legs.
    The 6 hole is to be stick side, between the body and the blocker
    The 7 hole is to be glove side, between the body and the glove

    Eberle’s unsustainable shooting %
    Just found this article.

    http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Shot_Quality.pdf

    http://hockeynumbers.blogspot.ca/2006/10/shots-stats-during-one-of-mc79hockeys.html

    http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2011/12/8/2621193/shot-quality-and-goal-trends

  30. Jonathan Willis says:

    sliderule,

    I don’t expect agreement; healthy debate is fun. I’m just leery of getting tarnished with the (in my opinion undeserved) ‘Euro-hating MSM hack’ brush. I also try to avoid being in the business of scapegoating (except for Cam Barker).

    If I critique a play of Yakupov’s or Marincin’s, it has nothing to do with where they come from and everything to do with how I saw the play. I won’t always be right but I’m pretty confident I don’t have any xenophobic biases.

  31. Jonathan Willis says:

    rickithebear,

    Your timing could be better; I wouldn’t want to be the guy touting the NHL’s ability to track shot location one game after they showed they can’t necessarily reliably track TOI.

  32. spoiler says:

    mc79hockey,

    There were a couple of people on NHL.com last night complaining about the shot counter in last night’s game too. I have to agree, I’m pretty sure Hemsky had more than 2 shots on the night.

    There may have been a noob at the wheel, doing the first game of their Stats Career. I remember doing my first game up in the gondola and it takes some getting used to. I have no idea what sort of training or preparation the NHL gives these people. Molstar Communications gave us no help, and if it wasn’t for Stauffer’s assistance, I would have been lost on day one.

  33. Lowetide says:

    Oh you hated Pouliot! Dirt mean you were! Pouliot tried his best, but oh know there’s Willis with his “hey that looked like a lazy line change” crap and here we are! You might not have bias based on color, race, religion, country of origin but you don’t like the hypenated!

    Watch out Nuge!

  34. dessert1111 says:

    Ryan:
    Some bloggers like Derek Zona are too smart to see the obvious.

    Pretty much everyone at Oilersnation credited eager for the value of the Kassian fight.

    Really, it’s simple math.

    Trading 5 minutes of Eager for 5 minutes of Kassian is a win every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

    I agree with this, maybe there isn’t much of a difference between their offensive abilities but last night Kassian scored and was getting chances so having him on the bench for 5 minutes is not a bad thing in my opinion, especially when the Oilers guy taking the 5 minutes is the guy I least want on the ice in the last 5 minutes of a tie game.

    I think you guys are being a bit hard on Potter, or maybe I’m just too used to watching AHL hockey, but he seemed pretty solid to me with a couple of minor mistakes that cost him. Puck-moving was good and he was effective on the PK. It’s the Whitney ankle that concerns the hell out of me and I would rather Fistric draw in for him. Give 2nd unit PP to Potter, he’s comparable to Whitney on it IMO and at least he can turn if there’s a rush going the other way (defending it is another story, though).

  35. SK Oiler Fan says:

    There must have been some of BCs home grown products being passed around in the stats booth last night. Toi, shots and fo are all wacked

  36. Lucinius says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m surprised you haven’t hauled down Gretzky’s statue and replaced it with one of Pouliot.

    Ah, the good old days of LT and Pouliot.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Lucinius: roducts b

    Security.

  38. Lowetide says:

    Oh and by the way, I wasn’t serious above when addressing Willis. I hope you all know that. Willis is a great guy and I think an outstanding observer of the game..

  39. Bar_Qu says:

    rickithebear,

    By your non-factoring of Corsi you are implying RNH had a poor game, but he was consistently buzzing around the net. Only luck kept two or three of those chances out. Horcoff too was effective, only if by directing pucks on the opponents net it kept the puck out of his own end.

    I think Corsi has a value in identifying direction of puck movement, which has a correlation to (not a causal relationship to) the outcomes of hockey games. Also it has the value of simplicity, which I have noticed none of your stats do, making it accessible to the layman, which yours are most definitely not (speaking as a layman myself).

  40. Lowetide says:

    Bar_Qu: We’ve been down this road many times, and I agree. Corsi is a valuable tool, like PDO or qual comp. Actually more valuable than qual comp because of things we don’t know (injuries, etc) in assessing qual comp.

  41. khildahl says:

    Principe tweets Eager is the only Oiler not skating today.

  42. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    Oh and by the way, I wasn’t serious above when addressing Willis. I hope you all know that. Willis is a great guy and I think an outstanding observer of the game..

    We got that. :). Yeah, Willis is quality. Tyler is too.

    However, funniest blog comment of all time belongs to Woodguy over at Mc79hockey when he (jokingly) asked Tyler why he spends so much time writing about the Oilers when he hates them so much.

  43. DBO says:

    khildahl:
    Principe tweets Eager is the only Oiler not skating today.

    You forgot the best part of his tweet where he says he is Eager to find out why!

  44. pboy says:

    Gene is in mid-season form already. Who ever would have guessed it possible to miss his horrible puns and yet…………….I laughed out loud when he held up that nail yesterday. He’s so terrible, it’s awesome sometimes.

  45. Clay says:

    It was actually hard to find a negative with game 1, unless you consider the rust shown in the first period, and a suspect goal on Dubnyk.

    Is it wrong that what impressed me the most was how good the fourth line looked? What a plus it would be if that line actually moved the play forward this year, instead of the Keystone Cops routine we’ve had since ’07.

    Hope Eager didn’t get re-concussed in that fight.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    pboy,

    The worst from last night was the “morning sKATZ” pun… brutal groaner…

  47. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    pboy,

    Still not quite in full form. Schultz=Hammer was a pretty strained reach into the past. Perhaps he’s saving up Hemmer and the Nail for the first time the Nail stikes the net with an assist by the Hemmer.

  48. Lucinius says:

    Nice remark from these American announcers (watching the Bruins-Jets game in the background); can you imagine what players in the 70s would be saying on things like twitter?

    I can only imagine the hilarity and brutal honesty and trash talking.

  49. hunter1909 says:

    Lucinius: can you imagine what players in the 70s would be saying on things like twitter?
    I can only imagine the hilarity and brutal honesty and trash talking.

    Impossible in a non-free speech, War on Terror Patriot Act Security Zone society, sadly. Those dudes were FREE.

  50. Lowetide says:

    and owned 8-tracks. Life is better today.

  51. justDOit says:

    Clay,

    Just read a tweet saying he has swelling around his eye.

  52. knighttown says:

    That time on ice deployment was simply perfect.

  53. striatic says:

    mentioned this last night, but i liked Krueger putting Belanger out between Hall and Eberle to take a D-Zone draw, then switching in RNH on the neutral zone transition.

  54. knighttown says:

    There were a couple of “snapshot” moments from this game besides the beauty goals:

    1. Dale Weise flying at Schultz the Younger who completely disappeared in a 360 degree spin and waltzed effortlessly away. Weise waltzed less effortlessly to bench holding his teeth after eating the dasher. Moxie.

    2. Eberle’s ridiculous no-look pass to the Nuge that really should have clinched things. I’m thinking, “no way he sees him” and then BOOM.

  55. ASkoreyko says:

    striatic: mentioned this last night, but i liked Krueger putting Belanger out between Hall and Eberle to take a D-Zone draw, then switching in RNH on the neutral zone transition.

    MacT used to do the same with Horcoff as well.

    I also thought I remember Renney doing that last year with Belanger and Eric actually getting upset about being used in such a capacity.

    It is always nice to see the coach micromanage certain aspects of the game, gives you more confidence that they are a tactician AND motivator for these players.

  56. FPB94 says:

    I know it’s early in the season, but I liked what I saw last year from him.

    I think Smid’s finally blosommed into the man worth of a top 10 pick. He seems to be a true stalwarth on the blueline. Granted he never became what people hoped offensively, he’s still a smooth skater/passer who won’t break the play up due to his lack of ability.

    I’d be ready to say Smid could play top pairing D on a division champion. (Altough I must admit I like him a lot so i’m a bit biased)

  57. rickithebear says:

    Jonathan Willis: rickithebear, Your timing could be better; I wouldn’t want to be the guy touting the NHL’s ability to track shot location one game after they showed they can’t necessarily reliably track TOI.

    Just so i get this correct.
    Corsi says A slapshot on goal from outside the blue to facilitate a change: is amore effective zone pocession value than a player who drove wide to the side of the net. shot. had it deflect off the Dman and go wide.

    YOU ARE RELYING ON A LIE.

    Corsi serves a general purpose?

    I HAVE TO AGREE

    CORSI CATERS TO LAZY!

  58. FPB94 says:

    rickithebear,

    Rickithebear: The data would indicate every team would have similar shot distribution; of course it would be better if it were detailed but…

  59. Bar_Qu says:

    Well said FPB94

  60. spoiler says:

    Ryan: Some bloggers like Derek Zona are too smart to see the obvious.Pretty much everyone at Oilersnation credited eager for the value of the Kassian fight.Really, it’s simple math. Trading 5 minutes of Eager for 5 minutes of Kassian is a win every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

    Dead on.

    And Tyler at MC79 also points out that the fight bought Krueger the opportunity to get the 4th line off the ice against the Sedins and replace them with the Kid Line for a very important 3rd period shift match up.

    It was a smart fight all the way around.

  61. spoiler says:

    FPB94: rickithebear, Rickithebear: The data would indicate every team would have similar shot distribution; of course it would be better if it were detailed but…

    This might be true, but I don’t think we have the data to make the claim yet. Wish we did though.

  62. VOR says:

    Old argument I know but here goes:

    Shot quality has three terminal flaws.

    The first problem arises from the fact there is no proof that any of the proposed stats have anything to do with the puck going in. It presupposes that the only factors determining shot quality are location and type of shot. Rickithebear adds where the shot is directed. There is no proof that these are the drivers of shot success, that is a staggering assumption on the part of shot quality fans. There are a number of other factors (time and space, total # of shots to date in game, speed of shot – believe it or not a 104 mph slapper is tougher to stop than a 85 mph slapper, spin on puck, screen-no screen, deflection off own team mate, quickness of release – how long does the player take to shoot once they have made up their mind, velocity at release – the puck is decelerating all the way to the net but one of the things that makes the 104 mph slapper hard to stop is that it is hard to determine likely point of convergence the faster the puck is moving at release which is actually independent of the velocity at contact, is release disguised, time of game, is the puck bouncing, is the shooter 1 timing, what sort of quality pass was he given, how far has the puck moved immediately before the shot, colour of the goaltenders pads, luck, etc.)

    The second problem is that the NHL can’t produce a reliable hits per game, blocked shots per game, or apparently time on ice per game statistic and you want them to keep all this other data. You also can’t reliably assess the shot quality through tv highlights because the necessary camera angle isn’t always available.

    The third problem is it doesn’t tell you anything useful. It is a population statistic. It does not apply to individuals. You can’t compare Ryan Smyth’s slapper to Sheldon Souray’s. Thus you can’t compare their shot quality. Eberle’s backhand isn’t comparable to Ben Eager’s. Thus, you can’t compare their shot quality.

    Corsi doesn’t measure success and thus isn’t as vulnerable to the first argument. The NHL can and does produce reliable corsi numbers and failing that they can be generated by independent sources so it passes the second argument with flying colours. Most importantly, corsi is an individual measurement and thus directly applies to individuals and it is immune to the third argument. Teammate factors are offset by the relative corsi measures. I still prefer adjusted plus minus put the math is a bugger.

  63. Lowetide says:

    VOR: Great post. Of the four goals last night, I’ve heard comments about three of them being “that’s one the goalie might want back” and the exception had nothing to do with the shot but rather the pass by the great Sedini.

    So I think we have to assume luck, and piss and dark liquor and late nights and bad lighting all factor in, but that our mistress Corsi’s aim is true.

  64. mc79hockey says:

    Nobody’s going to point out that Ricki has misstated Corsi, eh? Oh well.

    @spoiler: If there wasn’t a roughly similar distribution between most teams, would you not expect the range of team 5v5 shooting percentages to be a lot bigger than it is, with more persistence in shooting percentage, high and low?

  65. striatic says:

    FPB94: I’d be ready to say Smid could play top pairing D on a division champion. (Altough I must admit I like him a lot so i’m a bit biased)

    i’m going to hold the line i’ve held for a few seasons now.

    Smid is a *excellent* second pairing D on a contending team and a key component.

    he is not, however, a top pairing D on a contending team, as he doesn’t have the offensive acumen that even the more defensive member of a top pairing must have,

    Ladislav Smid is my favourite player on the Oilers. his personality and style of play continually impress me… but if Edmonton wins their division, let alone a cup, he’s playing 2nd pairing minutes.

  66. VOR says:

    Ricki,

    Lazy isn’t always a bad thing. You are proposing to spend thousands of hours and millions of dollars a year measuring something that you have no proof correlates with shot success, game success, or season success.

    In one of the papers you listed there is discussion of where on the ice shots have the best chance of going in and where on the goaltender shots should be directed. First of all, the data sets versus the data set of all goals scored in the history of the NHL is absurdly tiny. In fact, there is no attempt to prove validity period. Just because shots go in from there or when aimed there doesn’t mean shooting from there or aiming there is the cause of the observed effect.

    Differences from one year to another are being given weight of evidence in arguments of performance when there is no data for what the distribution of these measures is over time, no confidence intervals, etc. What if the twenty year socring from the slot % is 10%, 90%, 80% 12% 40%, 60%, 50%, 16%, 58%, 29%, 77%, 9%, 50%, 30%, 81%, 56%, 17%, 63%, 58%, 61%? Without robust, staitistically analyzed data we have on idea. Worst of all there is no testing of these measures against other factors like say shot speed or puck movement prior to shot. Nor are there any individuals within the population measurements as I said earlier.

    Calling Coris fans lazy is an ad hominem attack. Corsi has flaws but at this point nowhere near as many flaws as shot quality. It is easy to measure and easy to describe. Shot quality is not.

  67. OilLeak says:

    striatic: i’m going to hold the line i’ve held for a few seasons now.

    Smid is a *excellent* second pairing D on a contending team and a key component.

    he is not, however, a top pairing D on a contending team, as he doesn’t have the offensive acumen that even the more defensive member of a top pairing must have,

    Ladislav Smid is my favourite player on the Oilers. his personality and style of play continually impress me… but if Edmonton wins their division, let alone a cup, he’s playing 2nd pairing minutes.

    Ideally, Smid and Petry would be second pairing, but I suspect they would still get their ice time at the expense of the third pairing. Petry and Smid are excellent at EV Strength and the PK.

  68. striatic says:

    i don’t know why people are getting after the goalies in this game.

    Luongo was .938, with 4 power-plays against. he was excellent. not perfect, but excellent. that the Oilers found ways to beat him was impressive. i think they tried shots from every angle and every distance before they got through his armour.

    they won because they kept trying, and had the skills to try absolutely everything in the book.

  69. striatic says:

    OilLeak,

    i think they are excellent on the PK and very good at EV.

    i think that first pairing EV, on a contender, requires top rate outlet passing from both D for a variety of reasons, particularly neutralizing forechecking.

  70. justDOit says:

    striatic,

    My feelings as well. Luo made some pretty good stops, and it was really only a little rust on his short-angles that allowed Eberle and Hemsky to take advantage.

    What I really have a problem with, is calling Edler’s goal a ‘softie’ by Dubnyk. That was a rocket, through a defender, and just off the post. Even if he was out a little farther in his crease, that puck goes in more times than it doesn’t. What was truly telling in DD’s performance, were the big saves in the third period – especially the PK saves.

  71. dessert1111 says:

    VOR:

    Very insightful post. I would like to add as a footnote that I find that the increasing usage of statistics in hockey discussions on boards like these is all well and good and can tell you things that you might not be able to see because of biases, but there is no replacement for watching and understanding the game.

    There are so many variables at work in a hockey game that it is impossible to come up with a statistic to quantify one’s value to the game in a perfect manner. I think that sometimes when we talk about statistics we forget that and base all our arguments on the value of player A on some numbers that tell us something, but that something doesn’t come close to the full picture.

  72. bookje says:

    rickithebear: Just so i get this correct.
    Corsi says A slapshot on goal from outside the blue to facilitate a change: is amore effective zone pocession value than a player who drove wide to the side of the net. shot. had it deflect off the Dman and go wide.

    YOU ARE RELYING ON A LIE.

    Corsi serves a general purpose?

    I HAVE TOAGREE

    CORSI CATERS TO LAZY!

    I think you are all tremendously lazy. I have developed a statistic that takes ALL factors of a shot into account. It’s called ‘Goals’ and it addresses integrates every aspect of play on the ice from both teams, as well as their ability to overcome any environmental factors such as ice conditions. went back and tested it’s inferential strength in predicting game outcomes and get this, it is more than 99.9999% accurate. In every case that I tested, the team that got the most goals won the game. I am sure there are some outlyers, but as of now it looks pretty much like the perfect stat.

    The key thing about this is how it affects coaching. Coaches should be doing their best to have their team score more goals than the other team. It should be a key metric in decision making.

  73. raventalon40 says:

    FPB94:
    I know it’s early in the season, but I liked what I saw last year from him.

    I think Smid’s finally blosommed into the man worth of a top 10 pick. He seems to be a true stalwarth on the blueline.Granted he never became what people hoped offensively, he’s still a smooth skater/passer who won’t break the play up due to his lack of ability.

    I’d be ready to say Smid could play top pairing D on a division champion. (Altough I must admit I like him a lot so i’m a bit biased)

    Who do see as being available in the next 2-3 seasons?

    Other than PK Subban I can’t think of any top pairing D-men in the age cluster who could be added to the group or are available (although one hardly imagines PK would be available). Del Zotto was resigned the other day.

    I’d even argue that we could use some center depth behind Gagner. I liked how Belanger looked on the wing last night even though Hartikainen played less minutes as a result.

    I wonder if we could get a Ryan O’Reilly or maybe a pesky guy like TJ Galiardi. I know TJ is listed as a winger but he was drafted as a center out of college. I think I also recall Galiardi is a childhood friend of one of the young Oil (Hall? Eberle?).

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/video-tj-galiardi-checks-mark-fistric-through-penalty-box-door?urn=nhl,wp17797

    Gives you two centers on defensive draws.

  74. rickithebear says:

    bookje: I think you are all tremendously lazy. I have developed a statistic that takes ALL factors of a shot into account. It’s called ‘Goals’ and it addresses integrates every aspect of play on the ice from both teams, as well as their ability to overcome any environmental factors such as ice conditions. went back and tested it’s inferential strength in predicting game outcomes and get this, it is more than 99.9999% accurate. In every case that I tested, the team that got the most goals won the game. I am sure there are some outlyers, but as of now it looks pretty much like the perfect stat. The key thing about this is how it affects coaching. Coaches should be doing their best to have their team score more goals than the other team. It should be a key metric in decision making.

    you are a man who gets it!

    I new i did not have to put a wink!

    Exit angry stats guy!

  75. striatic says:

    raventalon40: Who do see as being available in the next 2-3 seasons?

    i have a suspicion that “The Plan” from Oilers management involves signing “local boys” Bouwmeester and/or Phaneuf in 2014.

    they aren’t looking for a kid to grow with the core, but someone in their prime to serve as a final piece on the top pairing.

  76. FPB94 says:

    striatic,

    Phaneuf’s lost a step; he hasn’t been very good when I saw him. (At least that’s from my eye, idk what the stats are willing to tell)

    And of course Smid has to be paired with somebody of great offensive acumen; but at the same time I like his passing enough to say that he can follow that guy.

  77. justDOit says:

    Forgot to mention this earlier, but in addition to the ‘Nucks lackluster start to the season, it was nice to watch Hodgson play a good game in a Sabre’s jersey yesterday.

  78. raventalon40 says:

    striatic: i have a suspicion that “The Plan” from Oilers management involves signing “local boys” Bouwmeester and/or Phaneuf in 2014.

    they aren’t looking for a kid to grow with the core, but someone in their prime to serve as a final piece on the top pairing.

    I’m not a big fan of Bouwmeester, but despite what people say about Phaneuf the thought of pairing him with Fistric is quite interesting.

    TJ Galiardi is from Calgary.

  79. raventalon40 says:

    FPB94:

    Smid deked someone out yesterday! Spun him around and put him down on the ice! (not that I’m suggesting it will be a regular occurence)

  80. striatic says:

    raventalon40: I’d even argue that we could use some center depth behind Gagner.

    the Oilers will need more center depth also, but that is in addition to improving the top end D.

    Ryan O’Reilly won’t be gettable. Galiardi won’t be gettable. RFA’s both and the Oilers don’t have anything that either team would want in trade. “The Plan” includes solving that problem by getting good enough this year and next to attract UFA talent at LW and C and D.

  81. striatic says:

    FPB94: Phaneuf’s lost a step; he hasn’t been very good when I saw him. (At least that’s from my eye, idk what the stats are willing to tell)
    And of course Smid has to be paired with somebody of great offensive acumen; but at the same time I like his passing enough to say that he can follow that guy.

    i never said it was a good plan : ]

    the problem isn’t Smid’s passing so much as his vision. Smid can make a safe, solid pass but he doesn’t have the vision to spot the offensively optimal receiver, and even if he did he doesn’t have the speed to get to the spot to make that pass before the opportunity evaporates.

    that’s fine by me. Smid brings so much else to the table that i don’t care and like i said, he’s my favourite Oiler and don’t want to see him moved as his skill set is very difficult to replace.

    .. but Smid is not a first pairing answer on a team that was 23rd in goals for at evens last year.

  82. Rebilled says:

    knighttown,

    1.Dale Weise flying at Schultz the Younger who completely disappeared in a 360 degree spin and waltzed effortlessly away.Weise waltzed less effortlessly to bench holding his teeth after eating the dasher.Moxie.

    The most hilarious part of the night for sure. He actually ate the boards on that play.

  83. BlacqueJacque says:

    Not really picking on anyone here in particular, but since last night I’ve noticed a lot of people commenting that the kids got more play time than Horc/Smyth and the vets and were featured more prominently, and credited this to Krueger while bashing Renney.

    I suppose I’m a bit of a Renney apologist, but is it fair to bash him for doing his job? His job was to protect the kids. A rookie centre, a sophomore LW and RW – could the Oilers have moved up in the standings by playing them more? Possibly, even probably. But would it have been a wise decision?

    Even disregarding the draft lottery – and the favorable result we got there – the Oilers weren’t going to be a winning team last year no matter what. The playoffs were definitely not in the picture. Is that something we wanted to dump on the kids – the responsibility of losing every night – or on the vets?

    I think Renney didn’t just protect the kids by giving them favorable matchups when he could (primarily at home and on the PP), but by denying them responsibility, and thus denying them the responsibility for last season. Right now, Nuge, Hall, and Eberle are thinking “see, what could we have done last season if we had the chance?!” But they could also be thinking “We lead the team to a 27th overall finish.”

  84. BlacqueJacque says:

    knighttown:
    There were a couple of “snapshot” moments from this game besides the beauty goals:

    1.Dale Weise flying at Schultz the Younger who completely disappeared in a 360 degree spin and waltzed effortlessly away.Weise waltzed less effortlessly to bench holding his teeth after eating the dasher.Moxie.

    http://www.zimbio.com/photos/Dale+Weise/Justin+Schultz

    That picture sums it up perfectly.

    Does anyone have video?

  85. striatic says:

    BlacqueJacque: Does anyone have video?

    approximately what time did it occur?

  86. misfit says:

    I’m as big a Hartikainen fan as anybody, but I can’t wait until Jones comes back to take his rightfull place on that third line.

    Hartikainen has value if you can get him into the offensive zone. He’s a handfull around the net, and is good at wearing down defenders in their end, but he’s not the guy I look to to gain posession and move the puck up ice.

    I’m guessing Eager comes out in that event, though I actually liked Eager’s game last night. I still don’t know how much of a difference he actually makes, but I like it when our guys are jerks out there.

  87. BlacqueJacque says:

    striatic,

    During the second period for sure, but I don’t remember exactly when.

  88. raventalon40 says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Not really picking on anyone here in particular, but since last night I’ve noticed a lot of people commenting that the kids got more play time than Horc/Smyth and the vets and were featured more prominently, and credited this to Krueger while bashing Renney.

    I suppose I’m a bit of a Renney apologist, but is it fair to bash him for doing his job?His job was to protect the kids.A rookie centre, a sophomore LW and RW – could the Oilers have moved up in the standings by playing them more?Possibly, even probably.But would it have been a wise decision?

    Even disregarding the draft lottery – and the favorable result we got there – the Oilers weren’t going to be a winning team last year no matter what.The playoffs were definitely not in the picture.Is that something we wanted to dump on the kids – the responsibility of losing every night – or on the vets?

    I think Renney didn’t just protect the kids by giving them favorable matchups when he could (primarily at home and on the PP), but by denying them responsibility, and thus denying them the responsibility for last season.Right now, Nuge, Hall, and Eberle are thinking “see, what could we have done last season if we had the chance?!”But they could also be thinking “We lead the team to a 27th overall finish.”

    I can see it from your point of view (and you have some good points), but a big reason the Oilers wore down last year (imo) was that the veterans were gassed and even with that strange hot start where Khabibulin was the league’s best goalie for a while, the Oilers didn’t have the “umph” to squeeze into a playoff spot.

    Injuries didn’t help, but I think the veterans lost their “umph” last year.

    Time for the “kid line” to be a “top line” and play those toughs. For better or worse, they have to do it eventually anyway.

  89. BlacqueJacque says:

    raventalon40,
    I agree with you completely that the kid line has to carry the load now.

    Not just because the vets are yet another year older, but because they have to learn the carry the load. Last year, however, was too soon.

    Nor am I calling for a Return of The Renney. That ship has not only sailed, and the players haven’t just completely endorsed Krueger (including Schultz), but I’ve jumped the bandwagon too.

    I just think it’s unfair to label Renney a bad coach for doing his job and keeping the kids out of the crosshairs (while giving them ample opportunity at the same time.)

  90. spoiler says:

    mc79hockey: Nobody’s going to point out that Ricki has misstated Corsi, eh? Oh well.@spoiler: If there wasn’t a roughly similar distribution between most teams, would you not expect the range of team 5v5 shooting percentages to be a lot bigger than it is, with more persistence in shooting percentage, high and low?

    Firstly, let me say that I wasn’t entirely sure what FPB meant when he wrote “shot distribution”, but I was assuming he meant location effects.

    As for your point, it is well taken, however teams can have individuals range from 3 to 20%. That’s a pretty big variance. And it seems that more of the lower percentages are held by defensemen, which leads me to believe that distance from the net (and thus the number of players between the shot taker and the net also) are having some effect on shooting percentage, whatever it may be.

    I’m more inclined to VOR’s view that there are too many variables and the difficulty of gathering data into discrete clumps too great to ever have a comprehensive talk about shot quality (although we do gather something similar with “quality scoring chances”!).

    And thus, while I think for the most part this probably does work out evenly for teams over time, and we can make a prediction that is the case, right now we do not know for certain and maybe never will. Which is all that I was saying… we can’t be dogmatic about it.

    I also think ricki, since it is usually his MO, was thinking about individuals, not teams. Actually, I have no idea what Ricki was getting at, but that is usually the case. There’s no knocking Corsi as an indicator of possession in the offensive zone and thus a predictor of success.

    I know WG prefers Fenwick, but I prefer Corsi. This goes back to Hemsky’s early days when he was cirticized for not shooting enough. I thought that criticism was wrong from get-go. It was obvious to my eye that he was shooting lots, but his shots were often blocked, deflected, or just clean misses and his shot taking was not showing up on the scoresheets.

  91. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    I liked Eager last night. I’m a smash and bang hockey kinda dude. He earned his strips and good on him. Well deserved day off. I would argue two more minutes wouldn’t have been a bad thing and Hordi flying on his opposite would’ve helped but penalties and all where probably a factor in ice time. Petrell played his game, but Kassian was just running around like it was the wild west out there and that’s why I think Hordi could’ve been used. Kassian was doing his job well. I hate him already!

    Loungo is a bad goalie. A trade for him would have devastating effects on this team. If Tambo did that I would cry myself to sleep nightly. Dubnyk’s first one was soft, but on the whole he out dualed the ten million dollar man.

  92. Captain Happy says:

    spoiler,

    “There’s no knocking Corsi as an indicator of possession in the offensive zone and thus a predictor of success.”

    Corsi is a very blunt instrument to measure “possession in the offensive zone”.

    That the data is easy to gather doesn’t make it any less blunt.

    For example, many shot attempts are also turnovers and rewarding a player or a team by Corsi for what amounts to a failed play is all sorts of wrong.

    While slightly more difficult to gather, a simple stopwatch would be far more precise and the information far more useful.

  93. spoiler says:

    Captain Happy: spoiler, “There’s no knocking Corsi as an indicator of possession in the offensive zone and thus a predictor of success.”Corsi is a very blunt instrument to measure “possession in the offensive zone”.That the data is easy to gather doesn’t make it any less blunt.For example, many shot attempts are also turnovers and rewarding a player or a team by Corsi for what amounts to a failed play is all sorts of wrong.While slightly more difficult to gather, a simple stopwatch would be far more precise and the information far more useful.

    I’m glad that you and your 6 or more different personalities have the time to clock 6 or more different games simultaneously. Please post the results ASAP.

  94. Lowetide says:

    Those are the same exact arguments used against range factor in baseball. Obviously you’re going to have to look at the number over a season or series of seasons, but there’s a simple set of logical questions, too.

    I remember posting back and forth with Vic years ago, and he mentioned that it was always his suspicion that a player was injured if his Corsi swayed off course from the past. And you know that still holds true.

    So, I think we’re each on one side of the Grand Canyon on this issue and always will be. some people think Ozzie Smith was a showoff at shortstop, others think he was a genius.

    Doubt anyone changed their minds after he retired.

  95. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide,

    If a player was injured, wouldn’t that become obvious in his point output as well? Heck, for that matter, Corsi can change based on linemates (imagine losing Zach Parise or Nik Lidstrom as your partner), or even roles. Getting bumped from 3rd to 2nd line doesn’t mean just a few more minutes of ice time, it usually means more favorable matchups at home and sometimes even away.

  96. Lowetide says:

    Sure, it’s another indicator. However, for a guy like Jason Smith (back in the day) or someone who played outside the PP well maybe it fills in some blanks.

  97. bookje says:

    I should add that my goals thing was just meant to be absurd.

  98. fuzzy muppet says:

    Off topic, but I’m watching the Blues and Preds. Tarasenko already with a goal and an assist. He is completely dominating the game.

  99. bookje says:

    BlacqueJacque: http://www.zimbio.com/photos/Dale+Weise/Justin+Schultz

    That picture sums it up perfectly.

    Does anyone have video?

    That photo is awesome – if TSN had a ‘spinning move to make another player look like a klutz” play of the year contest, Shultz would win it for this.

  100. Dipstick says:

    bookje:
    I should add that my goals thing was just meant to be absurd.

    Shit. I thought that you were on to something there!

  101. Ice Sage says:

    Tarasenko getting the ‘Seguin treatment’ of slipping into a protected, primo offensive slot. Blues looking very good.

    Anyone remember when Justin Schultz was ‘definitely, surely, finally’ going to sign with Vancouver? Good thing he’s got a college degree!

    The filth of Canuck debasement is washing away…

  102. Rebilled says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    striatic,

    just found a video of that weise miss on the sportsnet page, about 15 down on their NHL video sidebar. Video is appropriately named ‘Weise’s Growing Pains’

  103. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje,

    Don’t worry, I think that was apparent to…uh…most of us.

  104. striatic says:

    Rebilled: just found a video of that weise miss on the sportsnet page, about 15 down on their NHL video sidebar. Video is appropriately named ‘Weise’s Growing Pains’

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/video/latest/Weises-growing-pains

  105. sliderule says:

    Willis

    I absolutely never intended to indicate there was any euro bias in your ratings.

    I think that Jones and Matty were just pissed off at Yak because of his comments about our WJ team aggressive play..I think that is were some of the perception came that msm were against euros but I don’t think that these guys feel that way and I don’t have any reason to think you feel that way.

    Peace.

  106. Captain Happy says:

    spoiler: I’m glad that you and your 6 or more different personalities have the time to clock 6 or more different games simultaneously.Please post the results ASAP.

    6 guys…6 stopwatches…doesn’t sound all that tough to me.

  107. khildahl says:

    Mark Spector may make me want to punch him the face every time he speaks, but I think the picture at the top of his latest article may be my new wallpaper:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2013/01/21/canucks_beat_oilers_rivalry_brewing/

  108. DeadmanWaking says:

    I polished off Spy the Lie the other night. It’s an elite piece of propaganda, and I mean that in the nicest possible way. The three names on the book are career CIA types, looking to cash out by starting up a consultancy (QVerity) after decades of drilling into other people’s moral tooth decay. Seriously: It can’t be fun to be a professional blood-hound for dirty little secrets, unless cat scat is your favourite lunchtime meal. But they don’t mention this. They “redirect” into the joy of serving one’s country beside their elite comrades with firm pink gums of moral rectitude. Note that the teeth themselves are rarely questioned: pointed, curved, projecting, shovel shaped–it’s all good.

    They make a big deal out of the oath to “tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth” as covering all three major categories: commission, omission, and misdirection. Their own book strikes me as being both valid and a relatively straight arrow, given the origins. Their sins of omission, however, are worth mentioning: never once is the camera pointed at the power relationship between the person asking the questions and the person answering the questions. Imagine Ken Starr just walking up to random people on the street and pinning them down on their marital fidelity. I’d be inclined to answer “well, I’ve basically got two lists: Places I’ve Already Put My Weiner and Incomplete“. Translation: get the fuck out of my face. This is not covered. Never once is the interrogator a mall cop with an ego larger than a paper Starbuck’s to-go cup sprouting handles on both sides. QVerity caters to People Who Need To Know. People with money, the kind of money that buys answers, whether the chump or mistress wishes to respond or not.

    Of course, in every anecdote, there’s some repugnant sexual peccadillo unveiled. In this line of inquiry, no pretext of moral authority is bad authority. Elite propaganda. All the same, it’s worth a read for people interested in this stuff–but try not to guinea pig your newfound powers on your nearest and dearest. Life is messy enough without sticking a stent into every freckle.

    Basically they reveal that there is no such thing as lie detection. The phrase repeated over and over again is “you’ve got work to do”. Strange cluster of postural twitches in response to a simple question, such as “Does Richard Simmons give you a secret wanger?” What do these strange convulsive postural twitches really mean? You don’t know. So gross you whimper? Or do you reeeally like it?

    Answer: You’ve got work to do. All these techniques ever give you is a sense of where you need to keep digging. I think that’s also true of advanced stats. You never know for certain what they mean, but they can point out discrepancies in how you trust your eyes.

  109. Ribs says:

    That Weise clip is great. I couldn’t believe that they weren’t going to show the replay last night. I haven’t seen that kind of self destruction since the likes of Mathieu Roy.

  110. VOR says:

    Captain Happy,

    I’m not picking on you, I promise. However, you haven’t thought the problem through adequately. I get that the following is a very long explanation and a bit baroque – those of you who aren’t interested might want to skip what I am about to say.

    First, each team has six players who might touch the puck on any possession so you need twelve people with twelve stop watches at all times if you are doing it live. On average puck possession changes between teams every ten seconds and between players on the same team more frequently than that. A lot of that is during the cycle when possession may be measured in fractions of a second (but exceedingly critical fractions of a second). This means you don’t have time to mess with recording these stats as you go so essentially you need a stop watch for each player and some extra people to record what those stop watches say. So you need minimally 14 volunteers and 40 stop watches for each game. That means 14 man hours of labour to make a full description of each game.

    For this to be useful you need to know where on the possession is happening. You also probably need to be tracking the players involved in each even/transaction. Now here is the place where video could be used (of course it could be used for all data collection). Who is in possession of the puck should be clear from taped games (also how long they had it, where on the ice they took possession, who was on the ice throughout that sequence, and the ultimate outcome of the play). Now lets say you could do all necessary data collection in twenty man hours (and with practice you probably could). Think how many games there are. Yikes.

    All that and you still would know zip all. The risk of noise in the sample data would be staggering. The first problem is that puck possession times in some cases (think tip ins) might be far less than the time required to record a unique event – ie push your stop watch.

    The second problem would be coming up with the necessary definitions. You have to provide the observers with definitions to allow them to record the puck transactions. What criteria are you going to use for whether or not a player is in possession of the puck – stick contact, skate contact, nearest player to the puck? How long does the player have to be in possession of the puck to be in control? A tip on a point shot can be a lethal weapon. That possession is going to be measured in fractions of second, tiny fractions of a second. How about in a scrum on the cycle? Who is in posession? Are all possessions as you cross the blue line on offence equal – is there less likelihood of positive outcomes once the player in possession has been on the ice for more than a minute? If so you then need to have a way of recording how long the player had been on the ice at time of possession.

    Now there is the problem of data reliability. What feed back are you using to determine that all observers are seeing the events in the same way and recording them in the same way? The NHLs stats guys don’t all record shot data the same creating severe noise in corsi data sets and that is not as complicated as possession data.

    I am not saying it can’t be done, I am also not saying it shouldn’t be done (rumor has it some teams do record much of this information). I am just saying you are trivializing the difficulty just as rickibear did with his attack on corsi versus shot quality. If the definitions could be codified and simplified then the data collection could probably be crowd sourced with a reasonable degree of reliability. There is also software becoming available that may eventually make this sort of data collection far easier.

    Once we had a large enough data set we could then start trying to see if any of it correlated with that simple metric of scoring more goals than you give up. Probably all we would learn is that there are no two situations all year long where possession is equal in terms of opportunity. It is also quite possible as the corsi supporters would point out that corsi adequately reflects possession for all intents and purposes.

    As with shot quality, puck possession statistics aren’t simple at all, or easy to collect. If corsi is an adequate proxy for possession (and to date it appears to be) then more data collection adds no new knowledge.

  111. Captain Happy says:

    VOR,

    “As with shot quality, puck possession statistics aren’t simple at all, or easy to collect. If corsi is an adequate proxy for possession (and to date it appears to be) then more data collection adds no new knowledge.”

    Corsi is NOT an adequate proxy for possession.

    It assumes, among many other ridiculous notions, that a team that directs more shots at the goal is possessing the puck more.

    To use one ridiculous example, Patrick O’Sullivan.

    You have, of course, made the simple task of tracking possession far more complex than need be.

    The puck is either in one team’s possession or the other or not at all.

    While I agree there would need to be some mutually agreed upon definition of what constitutes possession, that would be no different than the current attempts to track scoring chances.

    Using Corsi to try and create a proxy for puck possession is like using a chain saw to perform brain surgery.

    Not useless but not very illuminating either.

  112. Captain Happy says:

    When is the last time a rookie won the NHL scoring title?

    Tarasenko might.

  113. BlacqueJacque says:

    You guys are awesome, thank you for finding/posting that video,

    I just know that faceplant will go down as one of those little memories I’ll cherish forever.

  114. BlacqueJacque says:

    CP is on course for full meltdown, and it’s game 2.

    I’m a terrible human being, I have an addiction to schadenfreude.

  115. Lowetide says:

    Calgary Puck? Hahaa. Haven’t thought about them in forever. Is it still going strong?

  116. BlacqueJacque says:

    I’d say steady more than strong – I don’t think it’s grown much. There are still like only 10 posts per page and this will result in 60 pages for a decent thread. More than your fair share of homers, with a sizable chunk of very negative posters, and not much depth of commentary relative to useless posts.

    HFBoards and the blogs seem to have grown more. The Oilers community seems over-represented in the blogging world, to be honest. The quality and quantity of Oilers blogging is seriously disproportionate to the size of the city and fanbase. Only the Leafs do better, and perhaps the Habs, but I don’t read French so I can’t check.

    Anyway, they’ve calmed down, stepped back from the edge and begun jumping back on the bandwagon after two quick calgary goals.

    It’s still entertaining as hell to read them throughout the season. The inevitable 9th place finishes are topped with delicious tears shed during 6-1 losses to the young gun Oilers. It’s really a lot like reading HFBoards Oilers back in ’06-07 through ’08-09 – a sick, twisted mix of desperation and hope, with a constant undercurrent of the fear of yet another failure.

    Damn, seem to have jinxed my fun. Flames tie the game.

  117. OilLeak says:

    striatic: http://striatic.net/misc/hockey/oops_large.mov

    This is brilliant, I love how I can pinpoint the exact moment Weise breaks his face.

  118. melancholyculkin says:

    Captain Happy,

    Then do it. Record the data how you keep saying it should be recorded for 40 games and compare it to what Fenwick and Corsi show.

    Until then, stop waving away the non-trivial work done in the field by Vic Ferrari, Desjardins, Dennis King, Scott Reynolds, … etc with anecdotes and straw men. They actually wrote scripts to scrape the data from game sheets, or recorded it by hand themselves, and then ran it through some actual analytical tests to find a mathematical basis for their findings. Most of this done in their spare time.

    If you want to have a serious talk about the axioms of hockey analytics then bring actual data and actual analysis. If you’re not going to do that, then stop pretending to be a real part of the discussion.

  119. Captain Happy says:

    You know, the Catholic Church also expended great capital in defending the notion that the Earth wasn’t heliocentric.

    I recall a heated conversation I had with the esteemed Vic Ferrari back in the fall of 2009.

    While I was suggesting they would be a force to be reckoned with, he was fiercely adamant that they wouldn’t make the playoffs because their “underlying numbers” the previous season were dreadful.

    Of course he missed the moves the Hawks made in the offseason and had his head so far buried in stats he couldn’t see the forest for the trees. (not an uncommon trait of those trying to quantify hockey).

    I’ve recently had similar conversations here with VOR who is convinced that the Minnesota Wild are junk based on what happened last season despite the fat they have turned over a third of their roster and have added the key pieces that are needed for a team to take a step, or leap, forward.

    For example, since this time last year, the Wild have added Mikko Koivu and to their top line. Not only does that make their top line far more lethal, but it also makes Dany Heatley a much better player than he was last season when Kyle Brodziak was the Wild’s defacto top line centre.

    So, while the top line is far more effective, so is the Wild’s third line since Brodziak will now be playing back in his comfort zone.

    I won’t belabour the point but adding Granlund and Suter also have similar effects on their lineup as evidenced by Gilbert now playing second pairing rather than being the “go to guy” on the first pairing.

    No amount of statistical analysis can account for those kinds of effects until a a year, or two AFTER they occur, making the analysis pretty much the equivalent of a rocking chair.

    It doesn’t get you anywhere although it does give you something to do.

    If you are really in the market for a rational discussion on what constitutes building a winning hockey team, tracking Corsi and scoring chances won’t help you much unless you can account for the Butterfly Effect and Chaos Theory.

  120. Captain Happy says:

    Should have mentioned the team Ferrari insisted was doomed to failure was the Chicago Blackhawks.

  121. "Steve Smith" says:

    Captain Happy:
    Should have mentioned the team Ferrari insisted was doomed to failure was the Chicago Blackhawks.

    I don’t see why.

  122. Lowetide says:

    proof?

  123. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide:
    proof?

    He recalls it, man! What more do you need?

    (I sort of assume that “recall” is used in the Toyota sense of the word here.)

  124. jp says:

    justDOit:
    Clay,

    Just read a tweet saying he has swelling around his eye.

    Wonder if Paajarvi gets a chance with Smyth-Horc if Eager can’t go tomorrow. Would make more sense to me if Harti slid down to 4LW rather than Paajarvi playing there or Hordichuk drawing in.

  125. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Not sure what’s up with the off-ice officials in VanCity, but there are lots of problems. They had the wrong Oilers on the ice within 10 seconds of the start of the first period FFS, not by missing a line change but by inventing one. Then (as Tyler notes above) they exacerbated that blunder by crediting RNH & Eberle with PK time which they absolutely did not have. Smyth Horcoff got 6:20, Belanger & Petrell 3:40, between them all that’s 10:00 and 5 successful PK’s. None of the other 8 forwards so much as touched the ice during any of that time.

    As for shots, Schultz had two drives that seriously tested Luongo, one a wrister from between the circles after a brutal giveaway by first star *cough* Zack Kassian, the other on a 2-on-1 rush with Yakupov. Somehow, he was credited with only one shot in the game. Sure stuff happens, but those should have been impossible to miss.

    I did a project on the Kings-Canucks series in the playoffs last year and found several blunders on the play-by-play, for example the goals eventual Smythe-winner Jon Quick allegedly allowed in Game One from 130 and 155 feet away. Uh-huh. Obvoiusly that stuff is pored over by Quality Control people after the original data is entered. Obviously.

    Pisses me off that the NHL does such a shabby job of record-keeping and allows such wide variances from one building to the next.

  126. VOR says:

    Captain Happy,

    I can’t begin to tell you how sorry I am to have to point that to date less than 25% of the Minnesota Roster has turned over. I not surprised that you can’t take the time to do the simple math needed to come to that conclusion since you lied about me in your post knowing I’d read it. I said I thought Minnesota would make the playoffs but cap space would kill them next year – go back and read it again. You responded to my argument with a lineup for next year that wouldn’t make the playoffs and to do it you had to conveniently lose Clayton Stoner, Torrey Mitchell, and Nate Prosser. Now to your sins you’ve added trying to mislead everybody about Koivu – he played well last year and played 55 games of big minutes (in fact the most minutes per game of any forward on the Wild). The impact of a full year instead of .67 of a year of Koivu isn’t quite as significant as you make it sound. It just occurred to me maybe you just didn’t know that.

    Then there is the idiocy about building winning hockey teams and corsi not helping unless I can explain the Butterfly effect and Chaos Theory – possibly as empty a piece of rhetoric as I have ever read. Prove it doesn’t help. With actual research not made up shit. Oh and comparing Corsi fans to the hiearchy of the Catholic Church is preposterous. Corsi has never been the orthodoxy and you aren’t a martyr except in your own mind.

  127. melancholyculkin says:

    If you are really in the market for a rational discussion on what constitutes building a winning hockey team, tracking Corsi and scoring chances won’t help you much unless you can account for the Butterfly Effect and Chaos Theory.

    Oh please. Just because hockey’s not a Turing Machine doesn’t mean you can pull a loaded term like Chaos Theory out of your butt and pretend it’s applicable.

    In what ways is hockey chaotic as opposed to random? They’re different. How is hockey a dynamical system as opposed to a static one? Is it deterministic or non-deterministic? Does hockey meet any of the requirements for Chaos Theory to apply?

    Damn Hollywood and whatever shitty sci-fi movie they made that injected the terms “Chaos Theory” and “Butterfly Effect” into pop culture.

  128. Ribs says:

    I blame Ashton Kutcher.

  129. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ribs,

    Dude, where’s my butterfly effect?

  130. Lowetide says:

    Ahahaha.

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