RE 12-13 REVISITED AND REVISED 2

As with the RE for the forwards, I’ve done very little tinkering with the projected numbers for the defense. Why? It’s almost impossible to project these fellows over a summer with the plans of the organization clear as day. How anyone would correctly identify what the team will do with Andy Sutton’s minutes on a January morning is truly a mystery. No, I think the best plan is to leave everything in there, change only the GP and the corresponding boxcars, and use that as the line in the sand, as reasonable.

JEFF PETRY 42 2 15 17
RYAN WHITNEY  39 2 15 17
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 44 4 11 15
LADISLAV SMID 43 1 5 6
NICK SCHULTZ 47 1 5 6
THEO PECKHAM 33 1 3 4
ANDY SUTTON 31 1 1 2
COREY POTTER 7 0 1 1
TAYLOR FEDUN 1 0 0 0
COLTEN TEUBERT 1 0 0 0

Petry and Smid project as the top pairing, so clearly I am assuming Petry will get PP time. That may change with Justin Schultz and his incredible AHL season, but we didn’t know that in August. This assumes Whitney is playing a lot, and I chose Peckham over Potter for the 6th but that is obviously out there in the ether. Sutton’s minutes will be taken by either someone from outside the organization, Potter or Teubert.

The GF total for the 48 game season we’re talking about is 131, or 2.73 per game. That’s a smart step forward from last year  (207 goals in 82 games, 2.52 per game) and I do think it reflects the impressive youngsters up front. Tomorrow morning: goalies and North by Northwest.

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7 Responses to "RE 12-13 REVISITED AND REVISED 2"

  1. gcw_rocks says:

    I don’t understand why the chart shows Sutton playing any games. That’s not RE anymore. Rather than just pro-rate, why not update using the latest information?

  2. Lowetide says:

    GCW: Because there is no latest information. We don’t know what the Oilers will do to replace Sutton, and we didn’t in August. The idea of RE isn’t to “guess” what they’ll do correctly–although there is some of that in projecting–it is to set a reasonable line in the sand and then observe the results.

    Lets say I choose Colten Teubert to replace Sutton and he plays well. My choosing Teubert is relatively random, but when we look back at RE and match his performance against a prediction I pulled out of my ass it looks like he merely met expectation.

    That’s not what this is for. Colten Teubert remains a fringe player–that’s what RE reflects. If he makes the grade and plays consistent top 6D, then we should be delighted. Changing the plan for any of these players now is a shot in the dark.

  3. Matt.N says:

    Off topic

    For anyone with even a passing interest in college football you have to check out Johnny Manziel (aka Johnny Football ) in the Cotton Bowl last night.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/colleges/post/_/id/4681786/johnny-manziel-sure-is-fun-to-see-in-person

    First freshman to win the Heismann.
    287 yards passing 2 TD
    229 yards running 2 TD

    He lit it up on the big stage. Fun to watch.

  4. commonfan14 says:

    So if things get resolved and buyouts are at 100% of salary (NBA style), I suppose this trade could be possible:

    Stamkos, Lecavalier and a pick for Hall and Eberle, then all four players get bought out and then re-signed by their original teams for the league minimum.

    Pretty nutty level of risk and would take a lot of trust for everyone invovled, but it would certainly solve a lot of problems for both teams.

  5. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    GCW: Because there is no latest information. We don’t know what the Oilers will do to replace Sutton, and we didn’t in August. The idea of RE isn’t to “guess” what they’ll do correctly–although there is some of that in projecting–it is to set a reasonable line in the sand and then observe the results.

    Lets say I choose Colten Teubert to replace Sutton and he plays well. My choosing Teubert is relatively random, but when we look back at RE and match his performance against a prediction I pulled out of my ass it looks like he merely met expectation.

    That’s not what this is for. Colten Teubert remains a fringe player–that’s what RE reflects. If he makes the grade and plays consistent top 6D, then we should be delighted. Changing the plan for any of these players now is a shot in the dark.

    That’s pretty fair. Essentially the RE is that Sutton’s minutes will be replaced by someone from outside the organization. Teubert isn’t ready for full time duty yet, thus his RE remains “bit player”. It’s scary to think about a blue with Peckham, Potter and Teubert as 6,7,8 before any games are played. This COULD be a playoff team with another decent D. A lot less hope with just the current group.

    I understand the “reasonable” expectation for J Schultz may not change, but the “hopeful” or “optimistic” expectation has certainly gone up with his AHL performance. I imagine Petry and Whitney will get mostly PP2 time with Schultz and 4 forwards on the 1st unit. Iirc, Ralph talked about having 2 solid PP units though, so maybe they’ll be more evenly balanced/used and all those guys will get significant minutes…

    commonfan14:
    So if things get resolved and buyouts are at 100% of salary (NBA style), I suppose this trade could be possible:

    Stamkos, Lecavalier and a pick for Hall and Eberle, then all four players get bought out and then re-signed by their original teams for the league minimum.

    Pretty nutty level of risk and would take a lot of trust for everyone invovled, but it would certainly solve a lot of problems for both teams.

    I imagine the league would shut that sort of thing down very quickly. It would essentially amount to increasing the players share…

  6. gcw_rocks says:

    Lowetide,

    I hear what you are saying in terms of picking Tuebert, but hear me out on this. We realistically expect Sutton to miss the season. It would be more realistic to take him off the chart and say we have a 31 game gap that we know the Oilers need to fill, but given the number of options available to fill it at this time, especially with the compliance buyout sitting out there, that we can not reasonably predict how the gap will be filled, especially with the defensive woes of the farm team. If there had been a second stand out defence performer on the farm, the view would likely be different (I.e. We would realisitcally expect stand out performer 2 to get the role).

    To me at least, that is more realistic than leaving Sutton on the board.

  7. dessert1111 says:

    I’d say we have a lot more information about Schultz than we did in the summer, and the organization does as well; that being said, it’s reasonable to suggest he’ll get more points.

    Matt.N: I’ve been supplementing hockey a lot with college football. It was a pretty good performance last night. I don’t know if you followed the cinderella story of Northern Illinois at all, but I was really disappointed with their QB Lynch. I watched several of their games thruout the year and he was spectacular and wasn’t at all himself in that bowl game, which is a shame because now all those who didn’t see him in the regular season probably assume he’s a joke.

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