RE 12-13 REVISITED (AND REVISED)

The NHL season is about to begin or die on the tarmac, so with the understanding that the entire point may be made moot in a week or so, lets revisit “reasonable expectations” for the Oilers. We begin with the forwards.

NAME GP G A PTS
TAYLOR HALL 39 21 19 40
RYAN NUGENT HOPKINS 42 13 26 39
JORDAN EBERLE 44 14 18 32
SAM GAGNER  43 11 21 32
ALES HEMSKY 35 8 24 32
NAIL YAKUPOV 45 11 15 26
RYAN SMYTH 40 9 13 22
SHAWN HORCOFF 44 6 10 16
MAGNUS PAAJARVI   39 3 9 12
RYAN JONES 41 7 5 12
ERIC BELANGER 45 6 6 12
TEEMU HARTIKAINEN 29 5 5 10
BEN EAGER 29 3 2 5
LENNART PETRELL 31 2 3 5
DARCY HORDICHUK  26 0 1 1

The ppg remain the same (or basically the same), I haven’t pushed Eberle’s number north or adjusted Yakupov either. Reason? The things I thought were reasonable in the fall should remain because that was the snapshot. Adding 5 goals and 15 points to Eberle’s totals (imo) doesn’t give credit for the season he’s having currently–making the adjusted number unfair. I did adjust Eager/Petrell to make the GF match projections, but that’s pretty minor (they would have 2.5 goals each).

The goal total for the forwards is 119, representing most of the GF by the Oilers in 2012-13. I’ll have the D on Saturday morning, G on Saturday afternoon and wrap it all up with a post projecting North by Northwest on Sunday.

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28 Responses to "RE 12-13 REVISITED (AND REVISED)"

  1. Gerta Rauss says:

    Been sick at home the last few day so I cleaned out the PVR-I re-watched North by Northwest and Rear Window(among many others)-wow was/is Grace Kelly attractive. Eva Marie Saint is no slouch either.

  2. JohnnyRocket says:

    I think it would be great if Hemsky and Gagner reach those totals. I’d say it is likely, given they have been playing overseas. The are the forgotten men on this roster. I’d love to see them play with Yakupov. I’m not sure that Paajarvi gets in more games than Hartikainan, though, although I’d have no problem with it.

  3. stevezie says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Great movie, but you know what would have made more sense than machine gunning a guy form a crop-duster? Anything. Why not have someone drive by and shoot him from a car? You know where he is going to be.

    JohnnyRocket,

    Totally agree. Hemsky in particular was a borderline ppg player on bad teams. Now that he is healthy (which his season shows he is) with better teammates and (possibly) softer matchups I would bet money on a .75 ppg pace (ice time will drop). Games played will always be a question with the guy, alas.

  4. Kris11 says:

    I’d revise RNH down a bit (maybe 5 points). Just below point per game in the NHL is a high standard for an RE. (I am the biggest RNH fan there is, but I don’t think he’s quite that close to PPG for RE yet.)

    Other than that, it looks good, except Hemsky’s past suggests an RE of like 3 games in a shortened season.

  5. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Can’t find it LT… what is the expected total games you are working with here?

    stevezie:
    Gerta Rauss,

    Great movie, but you know what would have made more sense than machine gunning a guy form a crop-duster? Anything. Why not have someone drive by and shoot him from a car? You know where he is going to be.

    to me Hitchcock made three types of movies:

    great: 39 steps; man who know too much (1934); the wrong man; I confess; strangers on a train; rear window; vertigo; spellbound; the lady vanishes; foreign correspondent; etc.

    ridiculous but fun movies: north by northwest; man who knew too much (1956); the trouble with harry; rope; paradine case; psycho; to catch a thief etc.

    ridiculous and terrible movies: birds; family plot; topaz; torn curtain; mr/mrs smith; etc.

    or… you don’t watch North by Northwest because it is “great” (IMO), you watch it because it is a fun “adventure” flic.

    Kris11,

    It looks to me that Hemsky hasn’t suffered any problems this year and that is a great sign… the games he missed this year appear to be after coming back to edmonton with the other NHLers

  6. Lowetide says:

    Rom: 48. The total GP added up previously, might be over a game or two via division this time.

  7. Captain Happy says:

    Gagner with the same point total as Eberle?

    Good luck with that.

  8. Ryan says:

    Couple thoughts.

    1. Much as it seems rational for a LH shot Yakupov to play LW, he has to start the season on the RW. Why? If you start him on the LW and he stumbles out of the gate, you won’t know if it’s from the position change or adjustment to the NHL.

    2. Eberle’s shooting percentage. Any data on impact of line mates on shooting percentage? I.e. you’d have to think a given player would have a higher shooting percentage playing with joe Thornton in his prime than Cogliano. Sure eberle’s S% is bound to drop somewhat, but we’re not talking about a Gilbert Brule having a career year 15.4%. Eberle obviously has better hands and shot selection. He’s not like a North south winger who gets lucky with 17 goals from shots rifled just inside the blue line. Obviously there’s always going to be puck luck, but is there any data on Eberle’s percentage with or without Nuge?

    As for the adjusted RE lowetide, I’ll eat my shorts if Gagner keeps pace with Eberle ppg assuming both play most of the truncated season. I also don’t see Hemsky on the first PP which means he’s unlikely to either. Yeah, I know they’re just reasonable expectations not fearless predictions… :)

    Nuge / Gretzky debate from earlier thread. Yeah, the Nuge is not G nor will he ever approach G. That being said, we all make the comparisons because the Nuge gives us glimpses of what G was like. How about that ridiculous shot on net against the Russians that was perfectly timed to get kicked out to drouin? It’s crazy stuff like that no one else seems to do that reminds us of G’s magic.

    Spanked by the Yanks at the wjh. That was brutal.

    Haven’t posted in forever, so that’s all I had to say. Sorry for iPad typing / abbreviations.

  9. Ryan says:

    Captain Happy:
    Gagner with the same point total as Eberle?

    Good luck with that.

    Haha, just thinking the same. I think it’s fair to argue that it’s not reasonable to have that expectation.

  10. JohnnyRocket says:

    If Gagner puts up 32 points then we’re not getting a bargain on the next contract. Management left themselves exposed on this one. If Gagner has a meh season, then they won’t want to resign him. If he is great, they won’t be able to afford him. Do they want to trade him? I can’t figure out managements take on Samwise. They challenged him to be better in the off season after he finished strong. Do they think he is lacking drive? I don’t see it.

    Trying to fathom this management teams decsion-makng process is an exercise in futility.

  11. Captain Happy says:

    Ryan: Haha, just thinking the same.I think it’s fair to argue that it’s not reasonable to have that expectation.

    Gagner is a PPG player in the Austrian league.

    I would think the NHLE is about .35

  12. Lowetide says:

    JohnnyRocket:
    If Gagner puts up 32 points then we’re not getting a bargain onthe next contract. Management left themselves exposed on this one. If Gagner has a meh season, then they won’t want to resign him. If he is great, they won’t be able to afford him. Do they want to trade him?I can’t figure out managements take on Samwise. They challenged him to be better in the off season after he finished strong. Do they think he is lacking drive? I don’t see it.

    Trying to fathom this management teams decsion-makng process is an exercise in futility.

    Didn’t make any sense to me either. They’ve boxed themselves in now, Oilers will have to go sign him long term or deal him, and as you say a solid to great season makes things even more difficult.

  13. YoungOil says:

    Ah come on! What more does Ebs have to do to prove that he may be best of the superkids? He has led his team in points for the second year in a row. Even better than Nuge and Hall. I just dont understand the pessimism around him. The kid’s going to score ppg in the NHL and has done so before.

    But I agree with everything else though. TEAM EBERLE!! haha.

  14. slopitch says:

    I’m in a keeper league and if another Gm offered me eberle for Gagner or Hemsky Id do cartwheels…

    Forwards are looking good. Playoff calibre.

  15. gcw_rocks says:

    Not sure how the play of the various Oilers to date could not be taken into consideration for a RE series. We now have more evidence that Eberle is a high percentage shooter. That should be worth some bump, even if its small.

    And Gagners NHLE should tell us something as well. Ditto for the Nuge. I don’t much care what you say the point totals are, all evidence points to a RE rank order of eberle, nuge, gagner.

  16. jp says:

    I agree with Kris that RNH will probably be a few points shy of his RE, and with most that Eberle will be a few points higher than his. That said, well done with LT. The only real complaint from anyone is the Eberle number.

    Also, about Gagner scoring only 1 PPG in Austria. Yes, that’s an ugly NHLE (whatever the exact number actually is), but I think we can cut him some slack with the assumption he’s not playing 100% all the time. That’s not a great trait in and of itself, but not exactly unusual. Thornton and Spezza are scoring a tiny shade over a PPG in the Swiss league (and being badly outscored by Omark for instance). I don’t think anyone is worried that their play has deteriorated. They’ll be back to their old selves once the NHL resumes. We shouldn’t judge Gagner harshly by his number either – it’s just good that he’s playing.

  17. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Gagner looked pretty alright in the Spengler Cup. Mind you, he was the third best player on his line, but that stands to reason since he was also (by far!) the lowest draft number of the trio. Tavares and Spezza were pretty high-powered mates to say the least. Sam clicked with them not too bad although he was hardly the primary puck carrier. On a line of pivots Gagner slid over to the right wing and Tavares — who is a wonderful hockey player — to the port side.

    Have to say I too looked askance at a RE that had Gagner at a higher PPG rate than Eberle. That doesn’t jive with their track records, I’ll just leave it at that.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Have to say I too looked askance at a RE that had Gagner at a higher PPG rate than Eberle. That doesn’t jive with their track records, I’ll just leave it at that.

    Sigh.

    In the original RE Forwards, Gagner and Eberle had the same point totals and Eberle played one more game.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/08/oilers-re-12-13-forwards.html

    in THIS re Eberle and Gagner have the same point totals with Eberle playing one more game. RE is based on Bill James idea that you should have 3 seasons of “established level of ability” before declaring a player has won a certain rung on the ladder (NHL regular, quality NHL regular, impact NHL player).

    We don’t have three seasons for Eberle because he’s played two NHL seasons, so I ran his final junior season through NHLE and threw it in with his two seasons:

    Age 19 NHLE 82, 22-24-46
    Age 20 NHL 69, 18-25-43
    Age 21 NHL 78, 34-42-76

    I ended up going with 75, 24-31-55 as his 12-13 NHLE. I think that’s fair. MOST do not. if we take his current season and apply the trad NHLE to it, and then compare my RE, we get:

    Eberle’s RE 75, 24-31-55
    Eberle’s NHL 82, 28-28-56

    I don’t think that’s anything to apologize for.

  19. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: In the original RE Forwards, Gagner and Eberle had the same point totals and Eberle played one more game.
    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/08/oilers-re-12-13-forwards.html
    in THIS re Eberle and Gagner have the same point totals with Eberle playing one more game. RE is based on Bill James idea that you should have 3 seasons of “established level of ability” before declaring a player has won a certain rung on the ladder (NHL regular, quality NHL regular, impact NHL player).

    I know you’re being consistent, LT; I disagreed with the earlier projection too. ;) Just a minor difference of opinion, in general I find the “reasonable” part of your RE to be pretty refreshing.

    That said, I’ve seen nothing from Gagner that suggests he’s a 0.75 P/G scorer, whereas Eberle will need to undergo a fairly severe correction to go back down to that level.

    If 3 years established performance is the threshold, how is it that Hall got the bump? Not meaning to be critical, just curious. I’m assuming the reason for these talking points is so we can talk about them!

  20. Lowetide says:

    The Gagner bump comes from a belief he’ll play much of the season with Hall and Hemsky. That, combined with PP time, should imo give him a little more opportunity.

    As for Hall, he’s a #1 overall pick, pushing the river and he’s going to be healthy should this NHL season roll forward. I don’t think most people would suggest Hall’s potential is less than Eberle’s.

    That’s one thing I really don’t understand about these RE reactions. I’m not saying Eberle WON’T exceed the number, but that leading into this season it was reasonable to expect 55 points. If he plays 48 games and scores 48 points the RE will show how incredible a season he’s had in 12-13.

  21. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide always plays favourites; I’ll best he’s going to have Smid way down on the defence scoring list.

  22. Lowetide says:

    If I could give him a half an assist, by Job I would!

  23. hunter1909 says:

    I want to pimp for Teubert, and Mitch Moroz.

    Prospects are like those flies that live a day or two. When I started getting back into hockey, Oilers had some Finnish kid who had just starred bigtime in the just finished World Juniors. The kid was rated 2nd in the entire world as a prospect. His name was Jani Rita, and either MacT ruined him like so many believe, or else he was simply another failed prospect ala Doug Lynch.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Rita sure as hell looked like a player, as did Lynch.

  25. Ryan says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s fair, but what math gives you 0.74 ppg for Samwise?

    His record is 0.62, 0.54, 0.62, 0.62, 0.63.

    I think that’s where the problem lies.

    You can set your watch to Gagner putting uo 0.62 ppg.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: Good question. I feel Gagner–currently–is in a very nice position on this team. I think he’s going to get Hall-Hemsky as his linemates and should get plenty of pp time I also believe the new coach will spend less time dicking around with him on the 4th line or on the wing.

    Oilers burned a lot of daylight with him early in the season.

  27. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    The Gagner bump comes from a belief he’ll play much of the season with Hall and Hemsky. That, combined with PP time, should imo give him a little more opportunity.

    As for Hall, he’s a #1 overall pick, pushing the river and he’s going to be healthy should this NHL season roll forward. I don’t think most people would suggest Hall’s potential is less than Eberle’s.

    That’s one thing I really don’t understand about these RE reactions. I’m not saying Eberle WON’T exceed the number, but that leading into this season it was reasonable to expect 55 points. If he plays 48 games and scores 48 points the RE will show how incredible a season he’s had in 12-13.

    Bruce beat me to it. :)

    And you had already answered my question earlier in e thread.

    Hard to say how the lines shape up.

    If Hall starts with Nuge and Eberle and they run with it which I think will happen, then gagner’s left with one or both of a dilapidated Hemsky and a rookie Yakupov which changes everything.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Sure. But I didn’t have the luxury of knowing that in August and took my best guest. Hell, Ryan Smyth may end up playing 2line L with Yakupov on the 3line.

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