SCOTT CULLEN’S OILER PROJECTIONS

I’ve been interested in seeing what others are projecting for the Edmonton Oilers during this shortened season. The club is a bit of a challenge–plenty of promise but lacking a long track record–and my recent RE for the 48 game schedule was met with a great deal of pushback.

Cullen’s Oiler projections:

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 43, 13-23-36
  2. Jordan Eberle 44, 15-19-34
  3. Taylor Hall 43, 16-17-33
  4. Nail Yakupov 46, 15-16-31
  5. Justin Schultz 46, 9-19-28
  6. Sam Gagner 42, 10-16-26
  7. Ales Hemsky 35, 9-17-26
  8. Ryan Smyth 46, 11-13-24
  9. Shawn Horcoff 40, 7-12-19
  10. Magnus Paajarvi 45, 6-11-17
  11. Ryan Whitney 30, 2-14-16

I apologize if I missed anyone, doing this in a hurry. Now, lets compare that to my RE:

  1. Taylor Hall 39, 21-19-40
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 42, 13-26-39
  3. Jordan Eberle 44, 14-18-32
  4. Sam Gagner 43, 11-21-32
  5. Ales Hemsky 35, 8-24-32
  6. Nail Yakupov 45, 11-15-26
  7. Ryan Smyth 40, 9-13-22
  8. Shawn Horcoff 44, 6-10-16
  9. Jeff Petry 42, 2-15-17
  10. Ryan Whitney 39, 2-15-17
  11. Justin Schultz 44, 4-11-15

We’re out of step on a few (Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz) but these are similar. Yes?

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

46 Responses to "SCOTT CULLEN’S OILER PROJECTIONS"

  1. BlacqueJacque says:

    I think you both are underestimating what the top three will put up as numbers.

    Between the extra year of growth and playing together, as a line, in the AHL… I fully expect them to go about 1.2-1.3ppg for the first 10 games or so and then they’ll all end up within spitting distance of 1ppg at season’s end.

  2. Lowetide says:

    That’s fine, my point is I’m not alone. I have the top three scoring 48 goals, and Cullen has them scoring 44.

  3. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide:
    That’s fine, my point is I’m not alone. I have the top three scoring 48 goals, and Cullen has them scoring 44.

    No, you’re not. The nature of the reasonable talking heads on TV is to be conservative in their estimations. He’s not a bombastic loudmouth Doug Maclean type.

  4. CockyHockey says:

    Can’t say I agree with Ebs forcast–now that I have hindsight of watching dominance in AHL. I agree almost exactly with Blacquejacque.

    As for Cullen, it is crazy to think that Tarasenko will produce at the exact same clip as Ebs. And I also don’t think Thornton will produce as high as he thinks either, the guy’s age is showing, and was noticable at the Spengler.

  5. BlacqueJacque says:

    BTW, I think you’re right on the Yakupov projections and Cullen is off. Yak won’t get the same quality ice time as the rookies normally did. With Ebs and Hemmer on the roster, he’ll either be on the third line, or second line left wing. He likes to come down the right, wheel and shoot from the slot, so being off-handed on the right wing works. I don’t think he’ll be as effective scoring goals from the left. He may be *the* scoring option on the 2nd line pp though. I definitely don’t see other shooters as capable as him.

  6. BlacqueJacque says:

    Cullen is also way off on Schultz and I think you’re dead-on.

  7. Lewis Grant says:

    I am usually a pessimist on these things, but I think Cullen is a good bit low on several players (e.g. Hall, Ebs, Hemsky). Seriously, in an 82-game season, this projects our leading scorer at something like 61 points. I don’t know what the AHL NHLe is, but even a .5 would get Justin Schultz 27 points in 46 NHL games. If Cullen is right, I think we are far from the playoffs (at least with our current D).

  8. spoiler says:

    Is everyone clear that LT is not predicting what these players will do, but rather establishing a line in the sand, a minimum say, that we can expect?

    Please correct me if I explained that wrong, LT.

    My impression with this process, and I’ve been around for a few of them, is that one of the big reasons, we are drawing this line so we can see progression, regression, or no-gression from our players.

    Once we have a new established level we can move the line. This tells us alot about what kind of player we have and how they have developed. It can also show decline at the other end of the spectrum.

    Which is completely different than predicting what boxcars the player is actually going to post.

  9. spoiler says:

    I think it’s amazing that Cullen’s numbers are lower, considering he’s a fantasy guy and is actually trying to predict. But then again over the years, Cullen has proven he doesn’t know the wetern rosters as well as he does the eastern.

  10. jake70 says:

    I am very curious to see how the PP percentage plays out, especially with Yak likely making the team. Let’s say this PP goes supernova (stole your descriptor LT, royalty in the mail), teams are going to be offering them tea and biscuits 5X5 instead of the usual hits to the head, boarding, slashing we see on the younglings so often. Which all means those numbers above could, could be way off.

  11. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    I tend to think Eberle and RNH could be PPG players 48 and on the low I would go 42.

    Having said that Hall could easily be a PPG player as well.

    I agree on Yakupov but I think your really conservative on Schultz, if the Oilers get a lot of PP time he’s totals could go as high as Cullen.

  12. Ryan says:

    spoiler:
    I think it’s amazing that Cullen’s numbers are lower, considering he’s a fantasy guy and is actually trying to predict. But then again over the years, Cullen has proven he doesn’t know the wetern rosters as well as he does the eastern.

    That’s a great point. Lowetide’s one of the few homers who’s able to make sober estimates without getting blinded by enthusiasm.

    He’s got the Staples rankings to prove it. :)

    That being said, his Eberle predictions haven’t been popular.

    Also, LT’s Shultz RE was made prior to the AHL stint. With Taylor Hall going on record in our daily rag that Shultz has locked up the 1st PP unit spot, you’d have to expect him to destroy the RE.

    I initially thought that Gagner’s RE was pretty optimistic, but with Yakupov and a possibly healthy Hemsky, the 2nd line should give Gagner a boost.

  13. raventalon40 says:

    Am I only the one who thinks Hemsky will have a bounce back year?

  14. regwald says:

    Oilers twitter feed posted that the Yak Attack has landed in Edmonton and will be on the ice tomorrow. He even promises to talk to the media. Put that in your pipe and smoke it MSM.

  15. regwald says:

    raventalon40,

    I am guessing PPG for Hemsky finally.

  16. raventalon40 says:

    regwald:
    raventalon40,

    I am guessing PPG for Hemsky finally.

    Yeah shortened season baby, I think Hemksy’s body usually wears down over an 82 game season because for many years he was easy to home in on as the only offensive threat. Now with the wonderkids loose Hemsky might just light it up because opposition offenses can’t focus as much on him.

    In addition, I think Petry will surprise many people. Just a saw him good opinion, I suppose.

  17. regwald says:

    yes, more offensive weapons should get Hemsky a better match up some games. Sure, overall less ice team and less PP time, but in the past he was streaky in that he would often spend lots of time on the PP with little results.

    I like Petry as well, but I think he might slide back a bit to reality this year just because he climbed so far last year. Just my opinion. However, it did sound like he and Steve Smith had a good relationship and they spent lots of video time together which accelerated his learning curve.

  18. raventalon40 says:

    These are not my RE (if anything, they are probably unreasonable, but I try to be fair), these are my predictions:

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 39, 9-30-39
    Jordan Eberle 48, 20-17-37
    Taylor Hall 45, 17-17-34
    Ales Hemsky 45, 11-22-33
    Justin Schultz 40, 8-22-30
    Nail Yakupov 46, 22-7-29
    Sam Gagner 48, 12-17-29
    Ryan Smyth 48, 19-10-29
    Shawn Horcoff 42, 18-10-28
    Jeff Petry 48, 5-22-27
    Ryan Whitney 48, 2-15-17
    Ryan Jones 22, 10-2-12
    Magnus Paajarvi 12, 3-3-6

  19. bookje says:

    I also think Hemsky will have a bounce back year – good health – nice warmup in some fuzzy Euro league – and no longer being the number one target of the opposition will do wonders for him. In fact, he will frequently be on the ice with others who are equal offensive threats now and that is going to give him more room.

  20. raventalon40 says:

    regwald:
    yes, more offensive weapons should get Hemsky a better match up some games. Sure, overall less ice team and less PP time, but in the past he was streaky in that he would often spend lots of time on the PP with little results.

    I like Petry as well, but I think he might slide back a bit to reality this year just because he climbed so far last year. Just my opinion. However, it did sound like he and Steve Smith had a good relationship and they spent lots of video time together which accelerated his learning curve.

    True enough but I think now he’s not expected to run the PP anymore, just be one of the cogs in that machine.

    I wonder if Horcoff will see significant PP time. He has the best FO% still.

  21. regwald says:

    bookje,

    Yup, my thoughts exactly. Should be fun to watch.

  22. regwald says:

    raventalon40: True enough but I think now he’s not expected to run the PP anymore, just be one of the cogs in that machine.

    Yes, good point !

  23. raventalon40 says:

    I am excite. I just want to see an Edmonton playoff game again.

  24. RENNAVATE says:

    raventalon40,

    I appreciate the audacity of your prediction that Nail scores 22 goals. I would absolutely love to see that. I am this close to buying a Nail jersey, and I don’t even wear the two jerseys I own now…

  25. raventalon40 says:

    RENNAVATE:
    raventalon40,

    I appreciate the audacity of your prediction that Nail scores 22 goals. I would absolutely love to see that. I am this close to buying a Nail jersey, and I don’t even wear the two jerseys I own now…

    Audacious is in fact my middle name.

    (Edit: Most or all of this may or may not be true)

  26. commonfan14 says:

    Nail has landed in Edmonton, with photographic proof.

    Our brief civic nightmare is over.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Commonfan: Nice one. :-)

  28. jp says:

    regwald:
    Oilers twitter feed posted that the Yak Attack has landed in Edmonton and will be on the ice tomorrow. He even promises to talk to the media. Put that in your pipe and smoke it MSM.

    Yay! It was a bit silly to be worried about him staying in Russia, but still nice to now have 100% confirmation he’s arrived.

    regwald:
    raventalon40,

    I am guessing PPG for Hemsky finally.

    Fully agreed he’ll bounce back (and has a decent chance to actually stay healthy), but I think a PPG is a little high. The reduced PP time (as mentioned) is a factor, and keep in mind he’s never actually hit a PPG in a full season before. Doubt he starts now. He should be a big contributor though.

  29. PaperDesigner says:

    I think this is the year where Taylor Hall stops getting underestimated as an offensive player. I think given the injury shortened seasons, his numbers have slipped under the radar somewhat. Not going to happen this year.

  30. Kris11 says:

    My RE’s:

    Taylor Hall 48, 23-21-44
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 46, 11-24-35
    Jordan Eberle 48, 18-17-35
    Sam Gagner 46, 11-23-34
    Justin Schultz 47, 10-20-30
    Ales Hemsky 30, 8-20-28
    Nail Yakupov 43, 9-13-22
    Shawn Horcoff 40, 9-10-19
    Ryan Smyth 37, 7-10-17
    Jeff Petry 44, 4-12-16

  31. Kris11 says:

    A lot of offensive players could mean that we see an offensive explosion, or just a larger than usual number of 40-60 point (per 82 game schedule players).

  32. gcw_rocks says:

    Cullen’s expectations for Gagner and Hensky seem more realistic.

  33. CockyHockey says:

    bookje,

    Hemsky is definitely underrated now. Hardly gets any press. Even I often forget about him in the relative sense, when consantly salivating over the young wheelers. To have a guy of Hemmer’s quality, skill and consistency (when healthy) as a 5th offensive weapon (currently between Schultz and Yak) is just fantastic.

  34. Captain Happy says:

    Seguin: 46GP 18G 25A 43P

    Hall: 43GP 16G 17A 33P

    Hmmmm.

  35. VOR says:

    Seguin: 155GP 40G 49A 89P
    Hall: 126GP 49G 46A 95P

    Hmmmmm.

  36. Captain Happy says:

    Seguin P/60 5V5 2.69

    Hall P/60 5V5 2.07

    I’m sure you’re aware that, in their rookie seasons, their ice time was vastly different with Hall averaging 18:12/G while Seguin only played 12:12/G

    Even last season, Seguin played almost a minute less per game.

    Since Cullen’s projections are about the future rather than the past, if Seguin beats Hall by the margin he is suggesting, I think “hmmmmm” is certainly a fair comment.

  37. VOR says:

    1. If Hall continues to outscore Seguin I think Hmmmmm is a fair comment.
    2. Now you are suggesting power play goals don’t count I take it.

  38. Captain Happy says:

    VOR:
    1. If Hall continues to outscore Seguin I think Hmmmmm is a fair comment.
    2. Now you are suggesting power play goals don’t count I take it.

    Of course PP goals count but they are far more serendipitous than even strength production.

    If Seguin and Hall were to perform at the rates forecast by Cullen, this is how the race would look at the end of this season.

    Seguin: 58G 74A 133P

    Hall: 65G 63A 128P

    Considering the difference in ice time and role in their rookie seasons, any objective observer would give the nod to Seguin.

    If Boston were able to improve its 15th ranked PP, things could look even more favourable to Seguin.

  39. VOR says:

    If wishes were horses beggars would ride.

    Not to give you a hard time but your addition is wrong.

    Cullen is actually predicting that Seguin will radically improve and Hall will regress if your numbers are correct. So I’d say that shows a serious bias on his part.

    But most importantly, how are PP goals more serendipitous than even strength production?

    Apparently if Boston scored more power play goals Seguin would score more – how about instead he goes and does what Hall does and scores some power play goals so his teams powerplay will look better. Really, you think power play goals are “luckier” than even strength goals – that players find them by luck? You do get that is absurd right?

    On top of which even using your stats for career Hall would still be putting up more points per game and far more goals than Seguin. By the way this massive difference in minutes played to date exists only in your head. Career to date Hall has played 19 minutes and 26 seconds more hockey than Seguin.

  40. Captain Happy says:

    I am not so sure that, just because someone is goring your ox you should accuse him of having serious bias.

    PP goals are not more “lucky” than other goals but maintaining a top PP is hardly a sure bet and even strength production is likely a better overall indicator of a players’ prowess.

    For example, Nashville had the top PP in the league last season at 21.6%

    in the previous seasons:

    11th – 15.2%

    8th – 16.4%

    25th 15.7%

    While you can argue the Oilers should have a very good PP, given the weapons at their disposal but, then again, so should Chicago.

    They finished last season at 15.2% for 26th in the league. The previous season, with basically the same personnel, they were 4th at 23.1%

    Serenedipity.

    While you are correct that their total TOI is closer (due to Hall’s propensity for injury), Hall played 280 minutes more than Seguin in their rookie seasons and, as soon as that normalized in year two, Seguin took off.

    If the Oilers draw a lot of penalties (who knows what officiating is going to look like this season?) and their PP remains top drawer, Hall should be fine but, at evens, it appears Seguin will out perform him and I think that’s what Cullen is seeing.

  41. frenchfrog says:

    Jordan Eberle 44, 14-18-32
    Sam Gagner 43, 11-21-32

    Reasonable? LOL. The only reason these guys should be listed side by side is if you’re doing a height comparison.

  42. Captain Happy says:

    frenchfrog:
    Jordan Eberle 44, 14-18-32
    Sam Gagner 43, 11-21-32

    Reasonable? LOL. The only reason these guys should be listed side by side is if you’re doing a height comparison.

    Can’t argue about that.

    Shouldn’t even be close.

  43. VOR says:

    Serendipity, only if he is wearing zebra stripes.

    Over a three year period 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 there was a total change of 30 goals at EVs, 4551, 4521, 4521 yet teams averaged 13.7 goals difference per year in ES goals or 9.07%.

    Over the same period teams had an average variation in power play goals of 9.73 per year or 18.96%. Sounds bad but over the three year period power play opportunities were 9136, 8716, 8133 or a 10.98% drop. Variance in power play goals when standardized to opportunity was 4.095 or 8.01%.

    In other words, if the zebra’s stay out of it there is less variance (serendipity) in power play goals than in even strength goals. We have no way of knowing how few or how many penalties will be called this year but it has nothing to do with luck or fate – it all has to do with what is going on between Gary Bettman’s ears.

    Thus any argument that says power play goals are more serendipitous is a crock.

  44. Wolfpack says:

    For all the talk of RE and scoring, I can’t help but shake the feeling that the Oilers’ fate may rest upon Dubnyk’s shoot-out play. I think we’ve got some great finishers now but DD was league-average at best last year. Even an improvement into the top 3rd of the league’s goalies in terms of shoot-outs could mean some incredibly valuable points for the Oilers.

  45. Captain Happy says:

    VOR:
    Serendipity, only if he is wearing zebra stripes.

    Over a three year period 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 there was a total change of 30 goals at EVs, 4551, 4521, 4521 yet teams averaged 13.7 goals difference per year in ES goals or 9.07%.

    Over the same period teams had an average variation in power play goals of 9.73 per year or 18.96%. Sounds bad but over the three year period power play opportunities were 9136, 8716, 8133 or a 10.98% drop. Variance in power play goals when standardized to opportunity was 4.095 or 8.01%.

    In other words, if the zebra’s stay out of it there is less variance (serendipity) in power play goals than in even strength goals. We have no way of knowing how few or how many penalties will be called this year but it has nothing to do with luck or fate – it all has to do with what is going on between Gary Bettman’s ears.

    Thus any argument that says power play goals are more serendipitous is a crock.

    You are using longer term averages of all teams which is virtually meaningless.

    The number of PP goals scored on a season to season basis by the same team can vary widely.

    Using the Chicago example from above, in 2010/11, the Blackhawks scored 64 PPG, while a year later they scored 42 PPG with virtually the same personnel.

    Even with a consistently productive PP team like Vancouver, their PP goals dropped from 72 to 57 in the course of consecutive seasons.

    That’s a very wide range of variability and suggesting the Oilers are immune to that reality is hogwash.

  46. VOR says:

    Captain Happy,

    You really are statistically untrained aren’t you? So you look at Chicago and assume it applies to all teams or could to the Oilers.

    Well lets go there – and remember this is just your own argument reflected back at you –

    in 2009/2010 Washington scored 213 even strength goals and in 2010/2011 they scored 152 a 61 goal drop. So lets see that would mean this year Boston will score 77 EV goals. That isn’t going to help Mr. Seguin’s scoring now is it. (193-61 = 132 prorated over 48 rather than 82 games).

    I never said I didn’t think the Oilers power play could regress. It could also improve. In fact, Boston’s even strength goal production is more likely to regress than the Oilers power play success is to falter. That puts Mr. Seguin’s production in serious jeopardy.Yet it is quite clear you have never even considered the possibility.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca