OILERS AT STARS G19 (12-13) 28.2.13

Now that we’ve established Taylor Hall is not a choir boy, we can return to the subject at hand: just how long is the corner the Oilers are trying to turn? At the end of the turn lies the playoffs, series wins, heartbreak in May, a river of tears come June and ultimately the return of Stanley to the Kingdom of the Silver Mug.

hall30

If we ask ourselves “can we win with Hall as 1line LW?” and “can we win with Sam Gagner as 2line C?” I come up with 8 yes answers out of 19 starters. Not bad. The 8 should be easy to figure out, and maybe we disagree on one or two but that’s okay. If I suggest to you that in 2 years the Oilers could make the elite 8 with Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Gagner, Yakupov, Hemsky, Schultz the younger, Petry, Smid and Dubnyk (that’s 10) added to:

  1. a big minutes defender who can play in two of three disciplines
  2. a complete 3-line that can calm the waters

would that be enough? Pretty close I’d say. Third paring and 4line are things you can shore up at the deadline.

Question: is there anyone in the organization (and outside the names listed above) who will be able to fulfill these roles down the line? Say 2015?

  1. Klefbom, Marincin and Gernat could end up filling the #1 role (big minutes D) but we don’t know the best one and we don’t know if they’ll be a top pairing defender.
  2. There are plenty of candidates for #2 role–the 3line–Paajarvi, Lander, Pelss, others–but we don’t really know who it is; chances are at least one is going to be from outside the organization.

The Oilers will get better just by watching Hall and the group grow a year older, but one hopes they aim a little higher via procurement.

clock

 

Starting this Saturday, the Radio Show is back (noon to 2pm Edmonton time) on Team 1260. After the lockout, we quickly went to market in an attempt to find sponsors and I’m pleased to announce that several high quality businesses came through and joined the show. I am thrilled to announce Western GMC Buick as the title sponsor and Kitchen Studio and Wallbeds Etc, The Beer Hunter, St. Albert Source for Sports and EMHL have also signed up as sponsors. There’s still some room, if you’re interested in joining as a sponsor please email me at amitchell@astral.com

Our first week will feature Oiler talk, trade talk, Oil Kings, Barons and more. Please post guest suggestions or email me, love your input.

kelly9

Aaron Volpatti (the anti-Grace Kelly) is on waivers this morning, I was going to write something but Jonathan Willis did it quicker and better. I think the Oilers might put a claim in on him, and run him on a 4line with Belanger and Petrell/Smyth. He’s a better player than Hordichuk and ‘when everyone is healthy’ doesn’t look like it is going to happen this season.

If the club has Paajarvi among the black aces (and they did yesterday) after his performance the other night then I think we can agree this isn’t going to be his season. Damn shame.

The COH folks are tracking zone entries, Willis has two items up here and here. This is really interesting information and worth following all season long. I’m not certain at what point we can begin to draw conclusions, but Nuge looks efficient and Gagner does not and I’m beginning to wonder if it is more than just Hall.

Important to find out with Samwise in need of a contract this summer

Oilers are in Death Valley tonight, “The Groin” is back in Edmonton and on the IR, the Stars haven’t lost in regulation at home to the Oilers since Pronger but #4 skates for the Oildrop and that’s always a good thing. Hot:

  • Sam Gagner, 18 in 18
  • Ryan Smyth, 4 in the last 5
  • J Schultz and Nail Yakupov: 2 points in their last 2 games

The Oilers have enough firepower to blow the other team out, and maybe tonight Taylor Hall turns Dallas into his very own shooting gallery.

allen

When I saw this, my first thought was “Ryan Whitney!” but there’s not much to scout and if you play the guy NHL scouts will see the troubles. That sublime passing ability is still there though, I think a team might take a chance when a few more dollars fall away from the contract.

So. Volpatti waivers, Whitney story, Hall returns and the minefield that is Dallas. Should be fun!

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603 Responses to "OILERS AT STARS G19 (12-13) 28.2.13"

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  1. regwald says:

    Saw on twitter yesterday … can’t remember who that Kari Lehtonen is off IR and is expected to start.

  2. Woodguy says:

    After going on and on yesterday about who K.Lowe and MacT might be looking at in the PHI-WAS game, we forgot the obvious.

    Luke Schenn

    Lowe has loved this under performer for a long time. (high draft pick!!)

    Burke fleeced Holmgren getting JVR for him.

    I wonder how back Holmgren will fleece Lowe?

    Paajarvi?

    If the Oilers trade for Schenn they are officially the Atlanta Thrashers.

  3. Numenius says:

    Have a good feeling about tonight. I call 4-2 Oilers. Hall is going to be a force.

  4. Truth Movement says:

    So excited to hear the radio show is coming back. I was just saying to my old man that not only were you my favorite Oiler blogger, but you might be my favorite of the radio hosts too.
    Make sure you make some time for my old college buddy Harrison Mooney.

  5. spoiler says:

    Klefbom et alii are 3 years away minimum from being difference-makers. That can’t really be the Plan. Plan B maybe, but not A.

  6. DBO says:

    Brownlee said not to read too much into the management at that game so I’m sure it means no trade :)

    This is a statement game. And I mean it dammit. Jones has injected some enthusiasm, and this is as healthy as we will be this year. Yes I know the centres are gone, but we are always going to be hurt, it’s how we roll. They need to bring it tonight. With MPS and Harsky, anyone not puling their weight gets sat. On a road trip like this, they need to rest some guys anyways, so you underperform you sit. Or in Paajarvi’s case you play great you sit.

    Not sure on lines, but if they go with what was said yesterday I’ll be annoyed. Petrell is barely a better PKer then Paajarvi, so why play him if he doesn’t bring anything else. Otherwise send Paajarvi down to play big minutes and claim Volpatti and go Leafs west and play a crash and bang style. Two scoring lines, two crash lines.

    And play Whitney dammit Potter and Peckham are not better, and worst case Whitney helps our PP (we have struggled without him). Let Whitney play so we can move him, or he gets better and helps us. He does nothing sitting while crappy #7 dmen gets ice time

  7. bookje says:

    Luke Shenn would help fill that 7th damn roll. Adding more depth to that position.

  8. jp says:

    DBO:

    On a road trip like this, they need to rest some guys anyways, so you underperform you sit. Or in Paajarvi’s case you play great you sit.

    I’m still hoping Paajarvi plays tonight. Kruger’s practice lines haven’t been that great a predictor of the lineup for the next game. I’m forgetting the examples, but he’s put guys on the 5th line for practice then moved them back to their normal spot in the lineup a few times this year. Hopefully that’s the case here. I wasn’t able to watch the last game, but it sounds like the best the 2nd line has played in a while.

  9. Jon K says:

    Glad to hear about the show, LT. I was wondering about it but worried about asking.

    I echo other commenters re: Klefbom et al being at least 3 years away from helping at the NHL level.

    The Oilers quite simply need to procure through trade or free agency a top defenseman sooner than that.

    Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I’m doubtful. As per my previous comments a few posts back, I’m somewhat skeptical about our ability to get fair value with Tambellini at the helm.

  10. RMGS says:

    Without its best player, the team still took 3 out of 4 points. The tender groin that keeps on giving is out, and having an eager Hall back in the line-up means we win!

    Yesterday’s practice lines don’t suggest it, but I’ll continue to insist that at some point it would be good to see:

    89-4-14
    93-64-83

    This assumes, of course, that 91′s sideburns are longer than a Mexican Mariachi’s.

  11. gangplank says:

    Another winnable game. TBH i believe almost every game is winnable for the Oilers with Hall in the line-up unless they are playing the elite teams like Pittsburgh

  12. RMGS says:

    And, happy to learn Nation Radio’s back.

  13. bookje says:

    I think overall, we need to be a little more tempered in our evaluation of players. There is some heat recently on Eberle and RNH, but keep in mind that the critics were out in full force only 12 games ago for Taylor Hall. These guys have are now facing top teir NHL competition after facing AHL competition and 2nd and 3rd line competition in their past NHL experience (Tom Renny sheltered them tremendously). They are all learning how to play against this level of competition and they are going to have stretches where its not going well for them.

    The same goes for the team, some commenters go from saying they “Are liking the organization at all levels” to “fire everyone” in about two weeks time simply because of a bad stretch.

    For me, if the Oilers are ‘in the mix’ at the trade deadline and either make a few small positive moves such as dumping Whitney and NK for a pick or player, or make a real move to address shortcomings as outlined by LT above, then I am okay with the trajectory. II am not in a rush to make a push for the cup this year and burning future picks to improve the team this year would be dumb. However, If they are running near last place or simply fail to do anything to make the team better, then I think Katz needs to consider more than a shuffling of the deck chairs. This team is managed by committee (Lowe, Tambellini, and MacT) and simply removing one of them would probably make little difference. I still don’t think it will come to that. We will see.

  14. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    A big minute’s defender who can play in two of three disciplines?

    I say the Oilers try for Bouwmeester or Weber, unfortunately nether will be available till next year.

    A complete 3-line that can calm the waters?

    That would require a top flight two way center; I would like another Peca please, but would settle for a Dubinsky…..or a Horcoff 5 year ago.

    Klefbom, Marincin and Gernat could end up filling the #1 role (big minutes D) but we don’t know the best one and we don’t know if they’ll be a top pairing defender.

    Nope, I think best we could hope for is 3/4 at this time, with Klefbom being the best right now.

    There are plenty of candidates for #2 role–the 3line–Paajarvi, Lander, Pelss, others–but we don’t really know who it is; chances are at least one is going to be from outside the organization.

    I don’t expect any of these players to be on the Oilers if they want to make it past the second round.
    I also wouldn’t hold my breath on the Whitney situation ending anytime soon……does anybody else remember the snail pace of the three headed goalie dragon?

    I have to agree with Woodguy on Schenn

  15. bookje says:

    After a stretch of sub 0.900 sv% in the AHL that saw him pretty much dropped to backup status, Danis has rebounded with a couple of decent games. Hopefully if he is called upon, he can rise to the occasion.

  16. DBO says:

    I have also totally talked myself into Brouwer. Brouwer is a really good 3rd RW, who can play 2nd RW if needed. He is solid two ways, can play PK and PP, and plays a gritty physical game. I wonder if the move is Hemsky for Brouwer and something else. It would be fun if it’s Shultz just to mess with Michael’s on the game calls. And Gino would lose his mind with puns.

    I think the issue for the Org is Gagner. Is he skilled = Yes. Can he be a solid 2nd line centre = Yes. Will he worth the $4.25 mill he’s likely to get = not sure. And there is the real issue. With the cap becoming an issue in 2 yrs for us (Nuge and Shultz will get paid), can you afford a decent O minded 2nd line centre who does not bring anything else but solid PP numbers (he is getting killed 5v5, and is OK at PK, with no physical aspect at all to his game). I would not deal him for Brouwer as Brouwer is a RW, but maybe you swing him for Ryan O’Reilly (the forgotten trade chip).

    If this was our lineup to end the season or to start next season, would anyone be upset? Did we give up too much skill, or did we balance out our lineup.

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Yak-O’Reilly-Brouwer
    Smyth-Horc-Jones
    Harsky-Lander-Paajarvi

    No more complaining about physical players since the 2nd line just got way grittier, and our 3rd “vet” line can still play and brings some edge and at least they compete, And the 4th line, the Nordic connection, played really well and has size and some compete while still being able to handle their own zone. That is a lineup built to compete in a long season, while we sacrifice some skill, we still have more then enough to have a great PP, while adding the missing grit and physical play we always hear about. And age wise Brouwer and O’Reilly fit the build.

  17. GordM says:

    Philly scribe’s take on Oilers brass visit. Targets Whitney, Hemsky, and Petry with his speculation.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20130228_Flyers_goalie_Bryzgalov_livens_up_pregame_skate.html

  18. DBO says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    I don’t know if it will be a McGrattan-type but I do expect the Oilers to add size and functional toughness in the future

    Claim on Volpatti? Deal for Brouwer?

  19. Ribs says:

    Just in case anyone was wondering What Marc Spector is thinking this morning….

    I’m not sure J.Petry is untouchable in EDM. Not being shopped, but soft at 6-3. Not a high-end puck mover. What will he do @ elite level?

    The man has lost his mind.

  20. FPB94 says:

    Woodguy: I wouldn’t say fleeced. JVR has been 1/2 PPG all of his career and now he’s just over it by his 15% Shooting.

    On the other hand Luke Schenn is pushing the puck on the good side of the ice (+5 Corsi) on 1st pairing assignements (1st on D in QC). On the other hand JVR is -5 Corsi against those same assignements.

    If you want fleeced, it’s Shattenkirk-Stewart for Erik Johnson. Man did the Avalanche set back their rebuild 5 years. They also uncessarily paid for Varlamov. The Avs might have the worst front office in the league.

    (I’d give credit to STL, but they got Kris Rusell for Nikita Nikitin)

  21. Henry says:

    Ribs: If it is Petry for Schenn, I give up and cancel the center ice package.

  22. Woodguy says:

    I know that the OIlers tracks shots and scoring chances.

    Both the coach and management reference it regularly.

    If they HS 91 after his excellent performance against CHI, it will be the first thing I really dislike that RK has done.

    I understand wanting to try 28 with 89-83.

    He’s a go to the net type who has played ok since he got back from injury (played very well against PHX, got shellacked against CHI)

    What I don’t understand is HS your best player from the previous game so 55,37 or even 94 can play.

    I hope he doesn’t do it.

    I was really looking forward to 4′s return and 91 with 83-89 to see if they could ice two lines that can outshoot.

    Great stuff from JW on zone entries. Really boils it down to digestible chunks and lays it bare. Love it. Can’t wait to see more of it.

    I really hate the Stars.

    Few teams bring out the vitrol like they do.

    Now that the Oilers come to town their #1 goalie is off the IR and Cole is playing his first game for them.

    I think this is very, very winnable for the OIlers

    I hope RK ices the best team he can with the roster.

    Benn, Jagr and Cole will be a handful for whoever is out against them.

    Fuck the Stars!

    Go OIlers!!

    *clap,clap*

  23. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    Luke Shenn would help fill that 7th damn roll. Adding more depth to that position.

    Need to dig a deeper hole to have space for all that depth.

  24. gangplank says:

    Ribs,

    While i am not a supporter of Spector. I dont see a problem with that sentiment. If petry can be a centerpiece of a trade that brings a superior defenseman back, then why not?
    Now the defenseman coming back has to be a better one.

  25. FPB94 says:

    I don’t know why y’all pissing on Schenn. He’s having a great season. (Both of them in fact)

    In comparison Jay-Bo’s shitting the bed.

  26. Woodguy says:

    WAS claims Volpatti.

    *whew*

  27. Woodguy says:

    FPB94:
    I don’t know why y’all pissing on Schenn. He’shaving a great season. (Both of them in fact)

    Being paired with Kimmo TImmonen will do that for your numbers.

    He’s not awful, but he’s not that good.

    Certainly not what the Oilers need imo.

  28. DBO says:

    OK, Volpatti claimed by Washington. So we are safe there. Leighton (G from Phily) on waivers. I like him, might be a solid addition to the Oil for a backup with Bulin out, and some depth in the minors since our young goalies are getting killed.

  29. gangplank says:

    Mark Spector Sports ‏@SportsnetSpec
    RT @oilerfan12: patience.Petry’s only in his 2nd full season. Let him develop. Everyone needs 2 take a deep breath & let rebuild unfold

    I hate this argument. I wonder how CHi would have turned out had the blackhawks been patient with Savard and not brought in Quennville

  30. FPB94 says:

    gangplank,

    What? Apples and Oranges

  31. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Being paired with Kimmo TImmonen will do that for your numbers.He’s not awful, but he’s not that good.Certainly not what the Oilers need imo.

    Timmonen is the guy I want and have for the past two years… and on that huge expiring contract, and at his age, I’d like to think it’s possible… But considering he’s only one of two real defenceman the Fly have healthy, I’m not getting my hopes up.

  32. justDOit says:

    Woodguy:
    WAS claims Volpatti.

    *whew*

    That’s the sign of a desperate GM. Go get em Stevie!

  33. spoiler says:

    gangplank: Mark Spector Sports ‏@SportsnetSpecRT @oilerfan12: patience.Petry’s only in his 2nd full season. Let him develop. Everyone needs 2 take a deep breath & let rebuild unfold I hate this argument. I wonder how CHi would have turned out had the blackhawks been patient with Savard and not brought in Quennville

    Me too. There’s no way the Flames would’ve been better if they had waited on Savard and St. Louis… or the Leafs on Gator back in the day. It’s just stupid to let kids grow into their roles. It’s just stupid to think that experience plays any role in playing sports.

  34. Woodguy says:

    RMGS:
    And, happy to learn Nation Radio’s back.

    Don’t think its called Nation Radio.

    I don’t see OIlers Nation listed among the sponsors.

    LT,

    What is it called now?

  35. gangplank says:

    spoiler,

    I am not advocating trading the kids away, I am advocating making moves to make this roster stronger.

  36. gangplank says:

    gangplank:
    spoiler,

    I am not advocating trading the kids away, I am advocating making moves to make this roster stronger

  37. Ribs says:

    gangplank:
    Ribs,

    While i am not a supporter of Spector. I dont see a problem with that sentiment. If petry can bea centerpiece of a trade that brings a superior defenseman back, then why not?
    Now the defenseman coming back has to be a better one.

    You don’t have a problem with calling a guy who has more hits so far than Chara or Weber, soft? Or the guy who is the teams top puck mover “not high-end” in the trait?

  38. RMGS says:

    Woodguy: Don’t think its called Nation Radio.

    Better yet!

  39. bookje says:

    Woodguy: Don’t think its called Nation Radio.

    I don’t see OIlers Nation listed among the sponsors.

    LT,

    What is it called now?

    Some suggestions:

    “Oiler Fan Commiseration Radio”
    “Oilers Rebuild Radio Network”
    “We Do It To Ourselves, and THat’s What Really Hurts Radio Show”

    Perhaps with a tagline like:

    “With all the number one picks of today and tomorrow”
    “F@#k this team”
    “Anyday now the Oilers are going to make a 3 for 1 trade to address the balance issues on this team – seriously – this time I mean it – book it!”

  40. gangplank says:

    Ribs,

    I am not talking about his characterization of Petry, I am simply stating that Petry shouldnt be untouchable just like Brewer wasnt untouchable when he was dealt for pronger. If a defenseman like that becomes available and petry is the centerpiece of the return then you go for it

  41. RMGS says:

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug

    Source confirms Oilers were one of several teams who had a claim in on Volpatti. Caps lower in standings, they got him.

    Hah!

  42. Ribs says:

    book¡e,

    I like DMW’s tagline from yesterday….

    “A rusing toad lifts all boats.”

  43. DBO says:

    Rishaug says on twitter Oil had a claim in on Volpatti. So, we are about to get our “truculence and grit” trade and soon i would think.

  44. gangplank says:

    MPS benched after being one of the best forwards vs chicago. First stupid move by RK

  45. DBO says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    Same lines as yesterday: 4-93-14, 28-89-83, 94-20-64, 55-54-37

  46. Mr DeBakey says:

    I’m not sure J.Petry is untouchable in EDM. Not being shopped, but soft at 6-3. Not a high-end puck mover. What will he do @ elite level?

    He’s Tom Friggin Gilbert.
    Who knwe?

    Klefbom, Marincin and Gernat could end up filling the #1 role

    Its been mentioned several times, not in two years.

    The radio show should probably contain the words “Tradewatch”

  47. RMGS says:

    gangplank: First stupid move by RK

    Did he not also start Khabibulin 3 of the last 4 games?

  48. RMGS says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

    Oil speculation based on Lowe and MacTavish watching Caps-Flyers. Scouting for Team Canada before attending a sports analytics conf in Bos.

    Hah!

  49. DBO says:

    LT: Radio show should be named : Oilers Eventually. Since we are eventually gonna be good, honest. Or maybe : It’ still year 3 of the rebuild. Again.

  50. Ribs says:

    SUN_TYCHKOWSKI
    Whitney doing post-skate drills with IR guys. Looks like another scratch

  51. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    We Wait Radio.

  52. Traktor says:

    gangplank:
    MPS benched after being one of the best forwards vs chicago. First stupid move by RK

    I blame MacT.

  53. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree with Woodguy on 99.89% of …

    Have to agree with Lowe – I love Luke Schenn – modern equivalent of Jason Smith .

    6′ 2 – 230 pounds – 2 goals and 4 assists so far….and he is +5.

    Some of those offensive numbers will embarass most of our fowards – heck – he is a copule points behind RNH

    Braydon Coburn is – 9 .

    Straight up for Jeff Petry.

  54. denny33 says:

    Jon K,

    Question: If Jonas Brodin is having an impact this year wit the Wild – why is Oscar Klefbom 3 years away?

    I would suggest Oscar will be playing a regular shift next year and probably be better than a lot of Dman we currently have…

  55. jake70 says:

    Congrats on the radio show.

    My name: “Oilers Nation – Children of a Lesser Hockey God Radio” (movie title spoof for anyone not familiar) ;)

  56. gangplank says:

    RMGS,

    it was defensible and somewhat to his mantra of play well and you are in. benching MPS is not

  57. gangplank says:

    denny33,

    because Klefbom was considered slightly worse and he has been injured a lot

  58. denny33 says:

    DBO,

    I really like where you went with this….and that is exactly the direction I feel our forward group should go.

    Would prefer a better return for Hemsky than Browwer – but I think you are bang on with the concept.

    Really starting to think Gagne and Hemsky can’t play together and something has be done to address that…not scoring 5 on 5 coupled with the fact they are usually giving up tons of offensive chances….

  59. denny33 says:

    FPB94,

    I would completely agree with the this…anyone remember Paul Stastny’s Dad lost his mind over the trade with St. Louis. Among many others close to the Av’s….

    And a 1st rounder for a goalie?

    Brutal management…

  60. Woodguy says:

    bookje,

    “Anyday now the Oilers are going to make a 3 for 1 trade to address the balance issues on this team – seriously – this time I mean it – book it!”

    Winner!!

  61. DBO says:

    After this road trip, when we will be actually healthy, we will know if we are in or out. Our lineup, based on moves made by Krueger when it comes to lines, will look something like this:

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Jones-Gagner-Hemsky
    Smyth-Horc-Yak
    Eager-Belanger-Petrell

    With the Nordic line back in OKC, with Vande as the extra forward and a glut of dmen since I doubt we actually do anything but send down the players who are eligible. Is that lineup enough? And if not, make some damn moves. Seems like MacTambLowe are waiting until all our young kids are ready and our vets are healthy, Which is never going to happen!!!! Some kids will fall off, some kids will get hurt, and some if not most vets will under perform or their skills will fall off the old man cliff.

    Reality check, we are at best an 8th seed. We lack quality dmen with more then one skill, vets with size who play physical, and youth who know what their own end of the rink looks like. Hockey moves can be made right now, not once we are healthy, to grow into a real playoff team next year. Paajarvi and Harsky lose their minor league options next year, which means they are with the big club. If this is a lost year, you play them right now. Freakin kills me to say this, but if we come out of this road trip further back then we are now in the playoff hunt, it’s time to unload anyone who will not be here in 2 years when we are cup contenders.

    Bye bye Hemsky, Shultz the Elder, Horc (buy out ), Smyth, Bulin, maybe Jones, Petrell, Belanger, Eager, Whitney, Potter, Peckham, Gagner if the deal makes sense. Go after teams whose window is two years (Rangers, Washington, maybe Philly, Boston, Tampa) and get 22-27 yr old players who fill out our roster with the stuff we lack. NO idea who, no idea how much, but clear the decks of the old dudes who will not win here and balance out the damn roster.

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    ??-??-Yakupov
    ??-??-??
    Harksy-Lander-Paajarvi

    ???-Shultz
    Smid-Petry
    Fistric-???

  62. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Timmonen is the guy I want and have for the past two years… and on that huge expiring contract, and at his age, I’d like to think it’s possible… But considering he’s only one of two real defenceman the Fly have healthy, I’m not getting my hopes up.

    He’s exactly what the Oilers don’t have.

    Hard minute muncher who outshoots the toughs and can move the puck.

    My kingdom for that on the Oilers.

  63. FPB94 says:

    denny33,

    It’s quite perplexing considering they’ve drafted kinda well and got some guys on the cheap side (P-A Parenteau, Palushaj)

  64. denny33 says:

    Ribs,

    People in Edmonton need to look at the replay of Marion Hossa’s OT winning goal.

    It has nothing to do with Petry following Patrick Sharp out near the blueline or getting Roasted by Sharp. It has to do with Jeff going for a skate BEHIND the net as Sharp and Hossa – and the PUCK – lie in front of Mr. Petry’s own goal. As maid Marion took his 4th whack to score – Jeff Petry can be seen doing a massive ice capade circle BEHIND the net…and the camera catches him looking at Hossa score. A bizarre scene that caught not just oiler management’s attention.

    Jeff Petry has 1 goal- created by the work of Petrell ( who should have scored ) and 0 assists and is a – 4. Add this offensive dynamo a soft streak that would make Ghandi proud.

  65. justDOit says:

    Radio show naming contest? Well, here goes.

    The Passion of the Oilers Radio Show (hope Mel doesn’t sue)

  66. Woodguy says:

    RMGS:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

    Oil speculation based on Lowe and MacTavish watching Caps-Flyers. Scouting for Team Canada before attending a sports analytics conf in Bos.

    Hah!

    Glad Lowe had MacT along to explain things.

    Not a slag, but I doubt Lowe’s been exposed to how statistical analysis works, how sample size influences stuff, what regression means etc.

    Hope they hire Eric T. He’s part of a group presenting a paper on zone entries.

  67. DBO says:

    denny33,

    So maybe Petry is more shutdown 3rd pairing dman then offensive 2nd pairing dman. Pair him with Fistric as our 3rd pairing, find someone to play with Smid, and we are OK. I guess we always say we are set on RH top 4, but if Petry is our 3rd RH dman, then that means we actually have depth. If we had:
    Shultz-Shultz
    Smid-Green (Wasington trade)
    Fistric-Petry
    Then our D depth would be great. Flawed yes, but a hell of a lot better then we have now. And in 2 years you have Klefbom as a 3rd LH dman, or if he really progresses he replaces Shultz the Elder on top pair with the Younger.

  68. Gerta Rauss says:

    DBO,

    Freakin kills me to say this, but if we come out of this road trip further back then we are now in the playoff hunt, it’s time to unload anyone who will not be here in 2 years when we are cup contenders.

    I tend to agree with this–and this coming from a guy who has been asking to ADD players since the first week of July. If we come out of this trip with a losing record or just treading water(9 points) we need to think about moving out some players with an eye towards next season. If we lose ground on the pack after this trip I can’t justify spending assets to add a Dman or someone to fill in at C…I’m just not sure we can come from far back in the pack with 20+ games remaining on the schedule.

  69. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I get that 28 is going to push someone out… but pushing 91 out in favor of 37 or 55 is just crazy.

    If the Oil got Volpatti… what do you all think they would have done with the lineup? Waived 37?

    tonight it’s dallas. that means we win, but in a heartbreaker… I expect anger and frustration tonight. I encourage everyone to hide all sharp and blunt objects.

  70. Jon K says:

    denny33,

    Short answer: They’re not the same player.

    Long answer: Show me how Jonas Brodin is making a struggling Minnie team better. Despite some significant signings this offseason, it seems to me that Minnie is suffering from the Edmonton problem of jamming too many rookies – impact rookies or not – into one lineup.

    It’s also worth noting that Klefbom has essentially missed an entire year of his development at a critical stage. We don’t know what kind of effect the injury will have on him moving forward.

  71. VOR says:

    In honor of the sports analytics conference I thought I’d point out Brain Skinner’s brilliant work on Nash equilibria and Braess’s Paradox as it might apply to basketball.

    http://arxiv.org/pdf/0908.1801v4.pdf

    I think if you add Skinner’s work to the discussion Eric has caused on neutral zone efficiency (which I believe is part of what he is presenting in Boston) as inequitably distributed amongst players (good players are good because they dominate neutral ice) you see some logical arguments for how hockey should be coached at a strategic level and how a team could be built using statistical tools.

    1. You should try to build a team that is great in neutral ice.
    2. You should vary your zone entries and your puck carriers so as to avoid skill curve deterioration (so the D on the other team can’t key on one approach or one player). If you don’t do this then ultimately carrying the puck will lose some or all of its advantage over dump and chase.
    3. The trick is to find the right balance between the two (or more) approaches.

    Thus, the Oilers should get some guys who can dump and chase but only if they can kill it in neutral ice. They must also be able to carry the puck in if the opportunity presents itself. I am guessing players who can dominate in neutral ice, successfully dump and chase, and carry the puck in with speed and skill aren’t very common.

    I have no hope the Oilers can find these players since the only one they currently have who could develop into this sort of multi-purpose threat is back with the Black Aces after playing exactly that role on our 2nd line.

  72. Captain Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I get that 28 is going to push someone out… but pushing 91 out in favor of 37 or 55 is just crazy.

    If the Oil got Volpatti… what do you all think they would have done with the lineup? Waived 37?

    tonight it’s dallas. that means we win, but in a heartbreaker… I expect anger and frustration tonight. I encourage everyone to hide all sharp and blunt objects.

    Paajarvi is getting the Omark treatment. Not enough offense for the top six, not enough grit for the bottom six. Under this calculus whether he is better than the alternatives is irrelevant.

    Honestly, I don’t get the love for Krueger. He was on the coaching staff last year when the team made bad personnel decisions and he is the head coach on a team that is doing the same dumb things.

    This cancels out the good of benching Whitney. These people don’t know what they are doing.

  73. bookje says:

    Woodguy: Glad Lowe had MacT along to explain things.

    Not a slag, but I doubt Lowe’s been exposed to how statistical analysis works, how sample size influences stuff, what regression means etc.

    Hope they hire Eric T.He’s part of a group presenting a paper on zone entries.

    I am pretty certain that MacT was once quoted as saying he doesn’t buy into ‘fancy stats’ or something like that.

    With that noted, many successful people have never bothered to learn the nuances of specific metrics, but rather have ‘people who do that’ for them. Essentially, people who translate the nuanced language of statistics for them.

  74. godot10 says:

    spoiler: Timmonen is the guy I want and have for the past two years… and on that huge expiring contract, and at his age, I’d like to think it’s possible… But considering he’s only one of two real defenceman the Fly have healthy, I’m not getting my hopes up.

    FYI: Timmonen has already signed a one-year extension (35+) for next season with the Flyers.

  75. godot10 says:

    bookje: I am pretty certain that MacT was once quoted as saying he doesn’t buy into ‘fancy stats’ or something like that.

    With that noted, many successful people have never bothered to learn the nuances of specific metrics, but rather have ‘people who do that’ for them.Essentially, people who translate the nuanced language of statistics for them.

    Yeah…but MacT was undoubtedly introduced to fancy spreadsheets for crunching gobs of data while acquiring that Queen’s MBA.

    So maybe he might have become curious about Big Data as applied to hockey.

  76. Ribs says:

    Lowe seems to be the guy that talks about analytics…. Link Link 2

  77. Captain Happy says:

    Jon K:
    denny33,

    Short answer: They’re not the same player.

    Long answer: Show me how Jonas Brodin is making a struggling Minnie team better. Despite some significant signings this offseason, it seems to me that Minnie is suffering from the Edmonton problem of jamming too many rookies – impact rookies or not – into one lineup.

    It’s also worth noting that Klefbom has essentially missed an entire year of his development at a critical stage. We don’t know what kind of effect the injury will have on him moving forward.

    Brodin is playing 22 mins a night, just short of Gilbert’s TOI/G, is the Wild’s second leading minute PK defenseman and is on the second PP unit.

    That he is also +0 on a team that is -4 is pretty damn good for a 19 year old rookie.

    That he is also facing the toughest competition and getting only 42.9% Ozone starts makes it rather remarkable.

    Kid can play.

    Now.

  78. bookje says:

    godot10: Yeah…but MacT was undoubtedly introduced to fancy spreadsheets for crunching gobs of data while acquiring that Queen’s MBA.

    So maybe he might have become curious about Big Data as applied to hockey.

    Perhaps, but my experience with executive MBA programs suggests that the level of numeracy in those programs is pretty basic. That’s not to say MacT has not delved into it, but it is likely possible to get through the MBA without understanding simple concepts of stats.

  79. bookje says:

    I hope the Oilers win elventy to nothing tonight.

    This place is more fun when the team is actually winning.

    Although the total patheticness of the Quinn era was also pretty fun around here. Perhaps it is the element of hope that we need to quash.

  80. RexLibris says:

    Just a side note on the rumour of Whitney to Carolina looking unlikely: this is the same GM who last season traded expiring UFA Spacek for the ex-Leaf defensive dynamo first-ballot HOFer Tomas Kaberle, when the team was obviously circling the drain.

    I wouldn’t rule out a Whitney to Carolina trade just yet. So long as we don’t get back POS 2.0…

  81. bookje says:

    Marc,

    The good news is that if some are correct around here absolute despair is just around the corner and we can go back to enjoying witty discussions about onion belts and Barbara Ann Scotts.

  82. FPB94 says:

    RexLibris,

    Who’s POS 2.0?

  83. FPB94 says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    Isn’t he in Finland?

  84. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    FPB94,

    They released him too:

    https://twitter.com/MaStrozyk/statuses/261072555966865408

    Hurricanes, Wild, and Coyotes all gave him a shot after the Edmonton buyout.

  85. denny33 says:

    DBO,

    Agreed. That is my fav scenario – Petry to be the puck mover for the 3rd pairing featuring Fistric pairing. Not sure I understood the idea behind the Peckham and Firstric pairing.

    Puck mover on every D – pairing.

    DBO – I am going to ask you throw your hat in the ring for our future GM vacancy.

  86. Captain Happy says:

    bookje:
    Marc,

    The good news is that if some are correct around here absolute despair is just around the corner and we can go back to enjoying witty discussions about onion belts and Barbara Ann Scotts.

    Despair was around the LAST corner.

    We are now approaching hopelessness.

    Resignation will soon follow.

  87. Oiler_Kiwi says:

    godot10: Yeah…but MacT was undoubtedly introduced to fancy spreadsheets for crunching gobs of data while acquiring that Queen’s MBA. So maybe he might have become curious about Big Data as applied to hockey.

    Well it’s obvious that MacT is a very clever and articulate guy, having an MBA is nothing to shout about. Believe it stands for Master of Bugger All

  88. godot10 says:

    Oiler_Kiwi: Well it’s obvious that MacT is a very clever and articulate guy, having an MBA is nothing to shout about. Believe it stands for Master of Bugger All

    The usefulness of knowledge and training always depends on how one uses it. Knowledge can be used constructively or destructively. Admittedly, may greedy MBA b*()&^)&s have used their spreadsheets to wreak havoc and economic destruction on many a company and community.

    Ethics, competence, and knowledge are three distinctly different things.

  89. FPB94 says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    He’s an AHL juggernaut tough!

  90. eidy says:

    I’m as big a 91 fan as there probably is. I have liked him since the world junior before his draft year. Even with that I am not that bent out of shape by one healthy scratch.

    Its a short season and lately they seem to be rotating people in and out of the 3rd and 4th line. Keep them hungry and keep them fresh. maybe krueger meets with each of them and tells them to focus on a few things when they are watching and try to incorporate that in the game the next time they are in

    of course if he sits 2 in a row its because the coaching staff and managements are idiots and couldn’t get out of a locked car with the windows and sunroof open. jerks

  91. spoiler says:

    godot10: FYI: Timmonen has already signed a one-year extension (35+) for next season with the Flyers.

    Dammit, Godot… I’m trying to blindly ignore all the reasons why he won’t be traded here! You are not helping.

  92. spoiler says:

    godot10: The usefulness of knowledge and training always depends on how one uses it.Knowledge can be used constructively or destructively.Admittedly, may greedy MBA b*()&^)&s have used their spreadsheets to wreak havoc and economic destruction on many a company and community.

    Ethics, competence, and knowledge are three distinctly different things.

    I think you are confusing MBAs with Econ and Math PhDs.
    ;-)

    That said, if there are any kids listening this afternoon… Go get your Math PhD! There will always be jobs for those grads. Good paying ones you can actually pay a student loan back with!

    (2 hilarious pieces of economic news today, not that a day passes without one… Student loan delinquincies have now surpassed credit card delinquencies, and the insolvent City of Detroit is being taken over by the State of Michigan).

  93. denny33 says:

    Jon K,

    I think we can agree they are not the same player.

    A few people here posted how well Brodin has been playing. Indeed, Edmonton’s own media referenced how well Brodin has played in an article about Klefbom.

    In his last game – he played over 22 minutes in a win over Calgary. Monster minutes.

    As you mention, he is playing on not a very good team and yet he is an even player with 3 assists so far….Ryan Suter is -5 / Gilbert – 5, etc, etc..

  94. rickithebear says:

    denny33: Question: If Jonas Brodin is having an impact this year wit the Wild – why is Oscar Klefbom 3 years away?

    there are 4 elite defending dmen .
    top 50 QCOMP
    top 50 GA
    top 50 Zone start
    Weber, Brodin, Salvador, Fistric
    Add in top 50 in PK
    there is one
    Fistric.

    Edmonton has two more just on the periphery
    Smid, Petry.

    So my question is what elite Defender?
    we traded a 3rd for a 3rd comp top 50 pk dman.
    Who currently is better.

    we can hope for
    N. Schultz-J. schultz
    Smid-XXX
    Fistric-Petry

    Schenn does not fill XXX

  95. Kris11 says:

    “Go get your Math PhD! ”

    Applicants must be really, well-above average smart to complete the dissertation.

  96. FPB94 says:

    Kris11,

    If I had a lifetime to use it wouldn’t be on Math.

  97. DBO says:

    Flames offer sheet Ryan O’Reilly as per Dreger. Wow. gutsy

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
    Flames offer sheet on O’Reilly: Contract AA:$ 5,000.0 2012-2013: $1,000.0 (NHL) – SB: $2,500.0 2013-2014: $6,500.0 (NHL).

  98. DBO says:

    and Lebrun with a good take on why it is gonna be painful to match this deal for Colorado:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
    As per @DarrenDreger, Flames sign Ryan O’Reilly to offer sheet, two years, $10 M. Key is Year 2 at $6.5 M; that’s big QO in two years

    1st and 3rd rd pick for compensation

  99. Henry says:

    DBO,

    Wow.

    Calgary’s first pick next year could be quite tempting for Colorado.

  100. denny33 says:

    rickithebear,

    Sorry – not a 100% sure what you are asking…are you asking exactly which NHL elite defenceman we should go after?

  101. Woodguy says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    We Wait Radio.

    Missed this the first time around.

    Well done.

  102. denny33 says:

    Henry,

    So much for Calgary trying to rebuild….bold move.

  103. denny33 says:

    denny33,

    I guess this will help Calgary solidify for their run for the cup?

  104. leadfarmer says:

    I dont think I match that if I’m Colorado. O’reilly is good and all but this is a top 10 pick maybe even a top 5 in a good draft year. Might get a franchise player out of the deal.

  105. B S says:

    DBO,

    And this is why I never understood the fascination with getting O’Reilly here. He could prove me wrong, but to me that’s an overpay in cap hit for a 2nd line center, unless Calgary thinks he’s their new 1st line center. I don’t think Colorado matches, but god help Calgary when Baertchi becomes an RFA.

  106. DBO says:

    leadfarmer,

    not to mention O’Reilly’s qualifying offer in 2 years starts at $6.5 mill

  107. DBO says:

    I wonder if they match and move him hard at season’s end. Sather always signed guys who were hard liners then moved em out the moment he had a chance to. If they keep him, he can’t be moved till next year.

  108. Woodguy says:

    DBO:
    and Lebrun with a good take on why it is gonna be painful to match this deal for Colorado:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
    As per @DarrenDreger, Flames sign Ryan O’Reilly to offer sheet, two years, $10 M. Key is Year 2 at $6.5 M; that’s big QO in two years

    1st and 3rd rd pick for compensation

    If CAL get him, good for them.

    About time someone had balls enough to do that.

    Why the (*&^$#@( didn’t the Oilers do that?

    Get their 3rd back from DAL and get it done.

    I dislike Oiler management intensely.

  109. Woodguy says:

    DBO:
    leadfarmer,

    not to mention O’Reilly’s qualifying offer in 2 years starts at $6.5 mill

    That’s kinda gross.

    Doesn’t mean he has to sign for 6.5 though.

    Depends if he wants to use the hammer.

    Not guaranteed that he does.

  110. FrankenOil says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree and this was what I was trying to get at yesterday when I suggested trading the 1st rounder this year for an ACTUAL NHL player. This is, in effect, a trade by a team who is struggling to stay in the race like the Oilers and are trying to upgrade the roster. In fact, the arguement can be made that CGY needs the draft picks more than the Oilers.

  111. Jon K says:

    denny33,

    Brodin playing well this year does not necessitate a conclusion that Klefbom would have played well for us this year, nor that he would play well next year. Your comments do nothing to support your conclusion that Klefbom is capable of being a contributing player next year or three years from now.

    Klefbom’s injury on the other hand suggests that he’s going to be delayed developmentally, perhaps irreversibly. We don’t know.

    Lastly, Brodin’s boxcars are fine, but they don’t show that he’s been helping the team win. If he has those stats playing top opposition and his underlying possession numbers are good, great. Still doesn’t mean we should assume Klefbom can step in and fix our problems on the backend in the next 3 years.

  112. Marc says:

    DBO:
    I wonder if they match and move him hard at season’s end. Sather always signed guys who were hard liners then moved em out the moment he had a chance to. If they keep him, he can’t be moved till next year.

    They can’t.

    He can’t be traded for one calendar year from the date of the offer sheet being matched. And one calendar year from today would be a day after the 2014 trade deadline.

    They can’t trade him until the end of the 2014 season, when he’ll be RFA with a qualifying offer of $6.5 mill and only 2 years from UFA.

  113. DBO says:

    Woodguy,

    I think he’ll use the hammer going on what he just did to Colorado by holding out for what he wanted. he wins either way in this deal. Calgary has 2 years left with Iginla and Kipper, so it makes sense for right now, and I expect they will have no one making any real money in 2 years so a $6.5 mill deal won’t kill them like it would if you were Colorado since they have some guys signed for good dollars and will have to pay Duchene

  114. RMGS says:

    DBO:
    Flames offer sheet Ryan O’Reilly as per Dreger. Wow. gutsy

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
    Flames offer sheet on O’Reilly: Contract AA:$ 5,000.0 2012-2013: $1,000.0 (NHL) – SB: $2,500.0 2013-2014: $6,500.0 (NHL).

    Hahahahahaha!

    In very different ways, Flames’ management rivals the Oilers’ gong show.

  115. godot10 says:

    I think this is a pretty easy match for Colorado. They can trade him at the deadline next year, and get more than a 1st and a 3rd.

  116. Wolfpack says:

    I think Colorado should take the picks and run.

    They will get a good first round pick from Calgary AND that qualifying offer after next season is going to be a joke. Is it 10% over the previous season or something like that for a QO? I don’t see O’Reilly as the kind of player who can carry a team on his shoulders. And those are the types of guys to whom you shell out $7+million. Has he proven himself to be a first line player?

    I think Calgary is crazy to do this – with their lack of quality prospects and aging core they should be thinking rebuild. I guess Feaster thinks they’ve got one last kick at the cat.

  117. Traktor says:

    What’s interesting is Calgary is one of the worst drafting teams in the NHL and Colorado is one of the best so Colorado probably values the picks a lot more than Calgary.

    I know you don’t win NHL games with draft picks but Montreal holds Calgary’s 2nd rounder this year as well lol.

    RoR should be good for Calgary but this could end up worse than Kessel/Seguin.

    Its funny but Calgary is probably the only team that needs a rebuild more than Toronto did when Burke pulled the trigger.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see JayBo moved to get some picks back. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Calgary move even more futures for help now.. such a weird organization.

  118. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “Dreger reports that the offer sheet carries an average annual value of $5 million. O’Reilly will make $1 million in base salary for 2012-13 with a signing bonus worth $2.5 million. His 2013-14 salary will be $6.5 million.” (tsn)

    What happened to the 35% year to year variance rule? Even if you add the bonus to year 1 that’s almost a doubling in year 2.

  119. Woodguy says:

    Stars are honouring Jiri Lethinen tonight.

    Figures.

    *spits*

  120. godot10 says:

    If Colorado doesn’t match, Calgary goes for broke and loads up for one last playoff run.

    If Colorado matches, Calgary begins blowing it up at the trade deadline.

  121. 42 percent body fat says:

    no picks inside the top 90 for flames. Better find midget man Johny Gadreau the second.

  122. Woodguy says:

    Wolfpack:
    I think Colorado should take the picks and run.

    They will get a good first round pick from Calgary AND that qualifying offer after next season is going to be a joke. Is it 10% over the previous season or something like that for a QO? I don’t see O’Reilly as the kind of player who can carry a team on his shoulders. And those are the types of guys to whom you shell out $7+million. Has he proven himself to be a first line player?

    I think Calgary is crazy to do this – with their lack of quality prospects and aging core they should be thinking rebuild. I guess Feaster thinks they’ve got one last kick at the cat.

    Calgary may have already have a verbal agreement that ROR would sign an extension with AAV less than $6.5MM when he comes due.

    Just because his QO is $6.5MM doesn’t mean he’s gonna put a gun to their head and make them do that.

    He may, but he certainly doesn’t have to.

  123. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Tracked it down. Variance rules apply only on front loaded contracts:

    “where the average of the Player Salary and Bonuses in the first one-half of the contract is greater than the AA over the full term of the SPC”

    There’s always a wicket open for someone looking to game the system.

  124. RMGS says:

    Woodguy: Calgary may have already have a verbal agreement that ROR would sign an extension with AAV less than $6.5MM when he comes due.

    If this actually happened, Feaster’s crazier than I thought!

  125. commonfan14 says:

    Woodguy,

    HIs union brothers won’t look too kindly on him if he doesn’t use the CBA to his full advantage here.

    If Calgary wants to keep him and not pay that $6.5 million, the only thing I think they can do is take him to arbitration and hope it gets knocked down, although it can only get knocked down to $5.25 million.

  126. wheatnoil says:

    Because I hate Calgary, I really want Colorado to take the draft picks and have O’Reilly injure himself in his first game back in the NHL. Ideally from a hard Taylor Hall hit.

  127. godot10 says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Tracked it down. Variance rules apply only on front loaded contracts:

    “where the average of the Player Salary and Bonuses in the first one-half of the contract is greater than the AA over the full term of the SPC”

    There’s always a wicket open for someone looking to game the system.

    Bettman is an idiot.

  128. godot10 says:

    commonfan14:
    Woodguy,

    HIs union brothers won’t look too kindly on him if he doesn’t use the CBA to his full advantage here.

    If Calgary wants to keep him and not pay that $6.5 million, the only thing I think they can do is take him to arbitration and hope it gets knocked down, although it can only get knocked down to $5.25 million.

    Calgary has to qualify him at $6.5 million. O’Reilly just accepts the QO and Calgary has no chance to get to arbitration.

  129. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    With a young stud D, you match. A lot happens in 2 years. Whether to strike a deal, or QO or walk gets clearer.

  130. denny33 says:

    Jon K,

    My comments about Brodin ( combined with Edmonton media reports & other posters appraisals ) were specifically addressing your statement below.

    Long answer: Show me how Jonas Brodin is making a struggling Minnie team better. Despite some significant signings this offseason, it seems to me that Minnie is suffering from the Edmonton problem of jamming too many rookies – impact rookies or not – into one lineup.

    I don’t think anyone thinks the Klefbom injury will be irreversible for his development.

  131. Marc says:

    This deal almost guarantees that O’Reilly will never be on a good value contract. Given that the guy was ready to miss an entire season than play for $3.5M this year and next, it seems unlikely that he’ll not use his leverage when he’s an RFA with a qualifying number of $6.5M. And if he’s worth $5M a year coming off a 55 point season, he’ll surely argue that he’s worth that much on a long term deal if he stays a 50-60 point player, and $6M+ if he gets any better.

    No thanks.

  132. crude says:

    Neat move by Calgary. Frees them up to trade Iggy for a first round pick to, for a turbo rebuild.

    Wait, shit are the Oil going to acquire Iggy for their first rounder? I couldn’t handle that.

  133. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Marc,

    A long term contract with a lower AAV is still out there whether with COL or a team that pays more than those picks.

  134. Wolfpack says:

    Woodguy: Calgary may have already have a verbal agreement that ROR would sign an extension with AAV less than $6.5MM when he comes due.Just because his QO is $6.5MM doesn’t mean he’s gonna put a gun to their head and make them do that.He may, but he certainly doesn’t have to.

    I suppose that is a possibility, but do you think it is likely? Not too many instances I can think of where something like this might have taken place – usually when the player has leverage he uses it. Certainly this player has not really taken the road that leads me to believe he is prepared to do something like this. If that is the case, Feaster is crazy for trusting him.

  135. wheatnoil says:

    wheatnoil:
    Because I hate Calgary, I really want Colorado to take the draft picks and have O’Reilly injure himself in his first game back in the NHL. Ideally from a hard Taylor Hall hit.

    Upon further investigation, the Oilers don’t play Calgary until April 1st, so it wouldn’t be O’Reilly’s first game back… but it would make for a rather tragic April Fool’s joke.

  136. Ribs says:

    dantencer
    Sportsnet 960 Calgary reports that the Vancouver Canucks also issued an offer sheet to Ryan O’Reilly.

    The plot thickens….

  137. DBO says:

    Dan Tencer ‏@dantencer
    Sportsnet 960 Calgary reports that the Vancouver Canucks also issued an offer sheet to Ryan O’Reilly.

    ok then

  138. bookje says:

    Woodguy:

    Just because his QO is $6.5MM doesn’t mean he’s gonna put a gun to their head and make them do that.

    He may, but he certainly doesn’t have to.

    Yes, because he has a history of putting the team above himself. Good luck with that verbal agreement Jay.

  139. bookje says:

    RMGS: Hahahahahaha!

    In very different ways, Flames’ management rivals the Oilers’ gong show.

    The oilers have had trouble trading for talent. The flames are destroying their future for a decade by discarding picks, wasting picks, and giving out NMCs to 2/3 of their roster. It’s not even close.

  140. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    Missed the edit window: A young STUD C. Just ask if the Oil would pay more than those picks for a 2 way C like that. Even without a workable QO option.

  141. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Ribs,

    More Millhouse Madness:

    @dantencer: Contrary to report out of Calgary… RT @TheFourthPeriod Told from very reliable source CGY’s offer sheet was the only one he received.

    ‏@dantencer: Sportsnet 960 Calgary reports that the Vancouver Canucks also issued an offer sheet to Ryan O’Reilly.

    29 offer sheets could have been made but the plot stops with the one he signed.

  142. Marc says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Marc,

    A long term contract with a lower AAV is still out there whether with COL or a team that pays more than those picks.

    If his RFA years are worth $5M why would he accept less than that for a long term deal that buys UFA years?

  143. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Marc,

    Was comparing to the QO not the old AAV:

    i.e. A long term contract with a lower AAV [than 6.5] is still out there whether with COL or a team that pays more than those picks.

  144. Woodguy says:

    DBO:
    Woodguy,

    I think he’ll use the hammer going on what he just did to Colorado by holding out for what he wanted. he wins either way in this deal. Calgary has 2 years left with Iginla and Kipper, so it makes sense for right now, and I expect they will have no one making any real money in 2 years so a $6.5 mill deal won’t kill them like it would if you were Colorado since they have some guys signed for good dollars and will have to pay Duchene

    Neither of us was listening to CAL negotiate with him.

    To state he’ll act one way or another is just wrong.

  145. bookje says:

    The bad part of this for Calgary is that it’s likley that the pick is top 5 (though I am sure Feaster thinks they are playoff bound) and that the salary is probably $1 million too much. If it were Vancouver, it would be a different story as the pick is not likely to be near as valuable.

  146. bookje says:

    Woodguy: Neither of us was listening to CAL negotiate with him.

    To state he’ll act one way or another is just wrong.

    Assuming secret deals and that the player will act in a way that doesn’t align with his own past behaviour and go against NHL norms is probably more of a stretch.

  147. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Calgary has to qualify him at $6.5 million.O’Reilly just accepts the QO and Calgary has no chance to get to arbitration.

    There is nothing stopping ROR from signing an extension long before CAL has to qualify.

  148. russ99 says:

    Glad we’re out on O’Reilly (so far).

    He’ll be getting paid a hair below our kids after one 55 point season and after being drafted in the 2nd round.

    Could be another Horcoff a few years from now. Residual skills only get you so far. It would be nice to have a big second line center, but unless he’s a blue chip, why give up the farm and/or put yourself in a cap crunch for a minor improvement on what you have now.

    We shouldn’t be so hot for a move where we fall into a dumb one.

    If they were scouting Washington, I’d be up for a deal for Fehr. He was a late signee this winter and is a UFA in the summer and could fill a bottom six role cheap in dollars and talent given up.

    As for tonight, I’m expecting them to stick to the script as long as Smyth, Belanger, Petrell, VandeVelde and Eager get significant ice time: Either take a lead and cough it up, or fall behind and catch up and blow it in the third or in OT, with a slight chance of a shootout win.

  149. Woodguy says:

    Marc: They can’t.

    He can’t be traded for one calendar year from the date of the offer sheet being matched.And one calendar year from today would be a day after the 2014 trade deadline.

    They can’t trade him until the end of the 2014 season, when he’ll be RFA with a qualifying offerof $6.5 mill and only 2 years from UFA.

    You sure about the trade deadline next year?

    Olympic year, usually the TD is pushed back.

  150. commonfan14 says:

    godot10: Calgary has to qualify him at $6.5 million. O’Reilly just accepts the QO and Calgary has no chance to get to arbitration.

    I thought this too, but found something that indicated teams have an option to take the player to arbitration before extending a qualifying offer.

    I only found that one place though, so it might not be right.

  151. wheatnoil says:

    The question of whether this is a good signing or not rests on the answer to one other question:

    Was O’Reilly or Landeskog driving the bus on their line last year? Calgary is playing a high stakes game that it was O’Reilly.

  152. raventalon40 says:

    commonfan14: I thought this too, but found something that indicated teams have an option to take the player to arbitration before extending a qualifying offer.

    I only found that one place though, so it might not be right.

    No I’m sure you have to QO them regardless to keep their rights. If you don’t have the rights how can you take them to arbitration? They are not your property.

  153. Woodguy says:

    bookje: Yes, because he has a history of putting the team above himself.Good luck with that verbal agreement Jay.

    He may specifically disklike COL and not all NHL teams.

  154. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Woodguy, I’ve been assuming and Avs will likely assume a trip to Sochi.

    Woodguy,

    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie: @CraigJButton Correct, possibly. If NHL goes to Olympics, deadline will get pushed back.

    ‏@CraigJButton: @TSNBobMcKenzie If Colorado matches, they can’t trade O’Reilly for 1 calendar year from date they match. Could be past 2014 trade deadline?

  155. commonfan14 says:

    raventalon40,

    From the link below: “For players who are earning more than $1.5 million in their prior year, Clubs will have the right to elect salary arbitration in lieu of making a Qualifying Offer.”

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26366

  156. raventalon40 says:

    I have a feeling Stajan, Cammaleri or Cervenka are next on the chopping block if Colorado doesn’t match.

  157. VanOil says:

    wheatnoil:
    Because I hate Calgary, I really want Colorado to take the draft picks and have O’Reilly injure himself in his first game back in the NHL. Ideally from a hard Taylor Hall hit.

    Schedule thing aside, you are my kind of bastard.

    Other thoughts for tonight;

    MPS not playing hurts, but not as much as trading him would. Two years from now a 3d line featuring him and Hartikainen would be great. Both sound defensively, becoming good possession players in the cycle and having the skill to move up the line up when injuries strike.

    I like Jones, I like Jones a lot more on a 3d or 4th line.

    I like Yak playing with Smyth but Belanger stinks as an offensive player. I don’t blame management for signing him he looked to be just what was needed. A guy that could win face offs and chip in 10 to 15 goals a year. I now would be surprised if he chips in 10 goals over the whole three years, even if you pro rate this years production up.

    I feel glum today and a Oilers win would lift my spirits, As Woodguy mention way up in this thread “I hate Dallas”. I also dislike Eric Cole MTL sheding his attitude from the locker room is very wise.

    Calgary having no draft picks in the first 3 rounds of one of the strongest drafts in years is a delight to behold. Colorado having 2 high first round picks is a very big opportunity for them.

  158. Woodguy says:

    bookje: Assuming secret deals and that the player will act in a way that doesn’t align with his own past behaviour and go against NHL norms is probably more of a stretch.

    A player has never signed a contract that was lower than what he could get on the open market?

    I have 50+ examples of it.

  159. bookje says:

    Woodguy: He may specifically disklike COL and not all NHL teams.

    I can’t see Calgary being a highly attractive team to be on in two years time.

    Anyway, it will be an interesting decision for Colorado. I am betting they match and see what they can trade him for.

  160. raventalon40 says:

    commonfan14:
    raventalon40,

    From the link below:“For players who are earning more than $1.5 million in their prior year, Clubs will have the right to elect salary arbitration in lieu of making a Qualifying Offer.”

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26366

    I hope you’re right… because that’s the old CBA

  161. bookje says:

    Woodguy: A player has never signed a contract that was lower than what he could get on the open market?

    I have 50+ examples of it.

    Please list them – all 50+ of them.

  162. raventalon40 says:

    bookje: I can’t see Calgary being a highly attractive team to be on in two years time.

    Anyway, it will be an interesting decision for Colorado.I am betting they match and see what they can trade him for.

    Especially after O’Reilly doesn’t help them in the standings and they are forced to trade Iginla at the deadline anyway.

  163. raventalon40 says:

    bookje: Please list them – all 50+ of them.

    Hyperbole of course… but I’m with Woodguy on this one.

    Most notable one Colorado signing both Selanne and Kariya.

  164. bookje says:

    WG-Please don’t read this until you have listed at least 50 value contracts.

    Ok, fair enough, but what I am saying is assuming things two years down the road when Jay Feaster may well not be the GM of the Flames is risky. It’s a risky deal for the Flames. Jay Feaster is in a bad spot and is ‘going for it’ and if Colorado does’t make it and RoR doesn’t turn out to be a superstar, they are totally screwed.

    I think Jay Feaster thinks he is smarter than anybody in the room.

    If given only two options, I prefer our GMs assumption that he is smarter than nobody in the room.

  165. Woodguy says:

    All,

    This OS was specifically designed for COL to look at the $6.5MM QO and say “no, thanks”

    Its designed to get him out of COL.

    Do you think that ROR and his agent didn’t basically design it themselves?

    If its a 5x$5MM COL matches in a heartbeat.

  166. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “This deal almost guarantees that O’Reilly will never be on a good value contract.”

    Marc,

    I think Col matches, but that report that Canucks tried to offer is a warning to teams stacked with young talent. The new playoff format gives even more incentive to blowup division rivals cap structure

  167. bookje says:

    Are there any restrictions on talking to an RFA (or their agent)?

  168. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Woodguy,

    It deadens the QO outcome, but does it really drag the trade value below a 1st and 3rd? Someone will be able to ink the guy long term below that 2nd year and his trade value will reflect that.

  169. Lowetide says:

    I think Feaster made a pretty smart bet. jmo.

  170. B S says:

    wheatnoil:
    The question of whether this is a good signing or not rests on the answer to one other question:

    Was O’Reilly or Landeskog driving the bus on their line last year? Calgary is playing a high stakes game that it was O’Reilly.

    Vast majority of Calder voters seem to think it was all on Landeskog (he certainly didn’t win for his point production). Colorado offered Landeskog the Captaincy, not O’Reilly, and they were closest to what was going on. I think the contract is a serious overpay for a second line center. I’m not sure Colorado signs this even if it is 2*$5 mil. Gagner’s on a ppg pace and Oiler’s fans don’t want to pay him that much, O’reilly’s only value over Gagner is his supposed (see quoted comment) defensive play. His production across his career has been worse than Gagner, with only a single 55 pt season. He is NOT bigger than Gagner. (both 200lbs).

    I do think Colorado could have gotten better than a first and third round picks for him, but they are good at drafting, and could end up drafting Drouin or Mackinnon with this pick, either of which could be much better than O’Reilly. The contract is poor and the compensation (while not as good as they could have gotten on the market) is still better than if he’d asked for a trade. I think Colorado lets him go.

  171. striatic says:

    i think the RoR bet is an “everyone loses” situation.

    Edmonton’s odds of signing Bouwmeester just went up.

  172. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree! I would word it like this: Homeboy has got some big balls! lol Savvy move. Never liked the guy, still don’t, but the move is a bold one.

  173. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Feaster made a pretty smart bet. jmo.

    Because you think the player will be that good?

    I think even O’Ryley turns out well, the timing doesn’t work for the team. A first is a lot to give up for a team near the bottom of the standings.

  174. striatic says:

    bookje: I think even O’Ryley turns out well, the timing doesn’t work for the team. A first is a lot to give up for a team near the bottom of the standings

    i agree.

    move smacks of desperation and Feaster assuming that a clever move is the same thing as a good move.

    sure, it screws up Colorado a little in the short term, and improves Calgary a little in the short term – but medium term it will screw up Calgary quite a bit and improve Colorado quite a lot.

    reminds me of the Kessel situation.

  175. Minister D- says:

    Not a ‘safe’ bet by any stretch, given where CGY could finish this year sans Kiprusoff, but a ‘good’ bet since CGY gets pretty good young player with something to prove and some incentive (same div. as COL). How much of this signing is an extension of the Feaster narrative in which CGY is ‘still good enough to make the playoffs and definitely NOT REBUILDING’”?

  176. 42 percent body fat says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    So say ROR stays a 55pt guy and brings all the intangibles. You say he wont sign for less than market value. As an RFA qualifying at 6.2M+ what is the compensation for that. That could possible be 2 first a 2nd and a 3rd depending on how much the cap stays down or goes up from 64M. What is his market value now as an RFA. Probably less than it is right now.

    Calgary needs to extend him for an average cap hit of 5.5M the day this year expires on that contract, or you will be paying him 6.5M a year for a player who wont get offer sheets. Or with his history maybe he just sits out and you get nothing for a year and a half.

  177. Truth says:

    I think if it was a contender in a different division they match it any day. Since it’s exactly the opposite they would be dumb not to take a probable top 10 (possible top 5) pick and walk away from the horrible contract a rival club is now stuck with for at least 4 years.

    O’Reilly has (2) 26 pt seasons and (1) 55 pt season. I’ll take Barkov at $2.5M/yr for the next 3 years and $4M for the following 4 instead.

  178. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy: He may specifically disklike COL and not all NHL teams.

    I heard an interview with his father (who seems way too involved) and he said the dispute was more about role than money.

    As you have mentioned, the Flames could easily re-sign him at a more cap friendly long term deal when this contract expires.

    Assuming he will go to arbitration is, at this point, nonsense.

  179. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “You say he wont sign for less than market value”

    42 percent body fat,

    The point is that this offer sheet does not shift the market value for a long term contract nor the market value for a trade. It hurts to lose the QO route, but the fundamental question is was he worth more than a 1at and 3rd, and had that changed for next year?

  180. Woodguy says:

    bookje: Please list them – all 50+ of them.

    Ok.

    One a day for the next 50 days.

    1) D. Sedin

  181. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    And… The Easter Feaster continues!!!

    In a very myopic sense one can see Feaster merely playing out his destiny as the Anti-Monitor to ST’s Monitor.

  182. Captain Happy says:

    bookje: Because you think the player will be that good?

    I think even O’Ryley turns out well, the timing doesn’t work for the team.A first is a lot to give up for a team near the bottom of the standings.

    Not if they unload at the deadline.

    They could well get a first round pick or two for any or all of Jaybo, Iginla or Kiprusoff.

    I any event, they appear to have acquired a 22 year old first line centre who is tough to play against, kills penalties and scored 40 points at evens last season.

    They aren’t easy to find.

  183. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    The question of whether this is a good signing or not rests on the answer to one other question:

    Was O’Reilly or Landeskog driving the bus on their line last year? Calgary is playing a high stakes game that it was O’Reilly.

    That’s the main question.

    His +50% shot ration in his 2nd year with Winnick and Yip suggest he is.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1180&withagainst=true&season=2010-11&sit=f10

    Not a slam dunk, but impressive for his age.

  184. DBO says:

    I hope Colorado matches. If only because regardless of the money involved he makes Calgary a better team and instantly becomes their #1 centre. He is too young to be called Calgary’s Horcoff (or Langkow esque I suppose), but that is what he basically will be (and I actually don’t mean that as an insult). He is a 60 pt (top end) two way centre who can play 20+ minutes a night. He is a perfect 2nd line centre or a #1 on a team lacking top end talent at the position. In Colorado he is #2 behind Duchene, and that would make them very tough. He would have been lovely here behind Nuge.

    Dammit, I hate it for both teams in that he is a quality young player who makes both teams better regardless of money.

  185. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    WG-Please don’t read this until you have listed at least 50 value contracts.

    Ok, fair enough, but what I am saying is assuming things two years down the road when Jay Feaster may well not be the GM of the Flames is risky.It’s a risky deal for the Flames.Jay Feaster is in a bad spot and is ‘going for it’ and if Colorado does’t make it and RoR doesn’t turn out to be a superstar, they are totally screwed.

    I think Jay Feaster thinks he is smarter than anybody in the room.

    If given only two options, I prefer our GMs assumption that he is smarter than nobody in the room.

    Haha! I read it anyway!

    2-6 Selane x 5 (last 5 contract)
    7- Hossa

  186. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: Haha! I read it anyway!

    2-6 Selane x 5 (last 5 contract)
    7- Hossa

    8) Kayria
    9) H. Sedin

  187. 42 percent body fat says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    the first and third is worth more than having no one play in his spot.

  188. VanOil says:

    Mark Masters @ TSN just tweeted: 9,222 fans at Nassau tonight for NYI-Leafs. I imagine the Leafs would get more than this for practices if they were open to the public. As much as I hate the Leafs they do drive revenue in this league. Time for another team in greater TO.

  189. 42 percent body fat says:

    someone kick Principe in the balls

  190. Woodguy says:

    Gene, that was awful.

  191. justDOit says:

    Oh Gene….

  192. VanOil says:

    Sound not working for Gene’s pregame rant for me. Imagine he was talking about how his Kindergarten teacher gave him the star for being very very pun-ie.

  193. Lowetide says:

    Gene hits a new low, or high.

  194. TheOtherJohn says:

    I agree with LT I think its a smart move by Feaster: Zero potential top line forwards, offer sheet addresses that problem.

    Bookje

    Now while WG is looking for a 50+ contracts I will start on the west coast of Canada and chip in with with the Sedins 1+2, Kesler & Bieksa, haven’t looked but expect Edler fits criteria as well .Pretty sure everyone in Calgary with NM/NTC fits that criteria so we are up to 10 and I only looked at 2 citiies. Realize that the man is an infallible management guru to you but pretty sure the rationale behind Lowe signing Horcoff to that ATROCIOUS contract was “magically” that Horcoff could get more on the open market. Hindsight………… it really and truly is a bitch!!

    P.S. February 28, 2013 at 5:00 pm Bookje said:
    The bad part of this for Calgary is that it’s likley that the pick is top 5 (though I am sure Feaster thinks they are playoff bound)

    you understand that the Oilers are tied with the Flames in the standing…….. right??? The 30,30, 29th juggernaut Oilers just keeps on rolling

    LT

    Absolutely delighted to hear LT radio is back!!!!

  195. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    42 percent body fat,

    If he doesn’t change his trade value with on-ice play there’s a team out there that will pay him full long term market value and pay the Avs more than a 1st and 3rd.

    Some market research:

    @Real_ESPNLeBrun: I canvassed execs on 5 NHL teams. 4 believed Colorado would match, 1 figured Avs would take the picks..

  196. 42 percent body fat says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    so you think someone will give up at minimum a first, second, and third for his 6.2, which could also include another first if the salary cap stays at 64M.

    Man he is not worth that. 55 pts is maybe worth a first and a third. He is going to make more than Hall.

    Terrible.

  197. BlacqueJacque says:

    Can’t help but think that it should have been Hall at centre ice there.

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