QUARTER MOON IN A TEN CENT TOWN

We’re are the quarter pole for the 12-13 season, Edmonton is in a tie for 7th in the western conference and a tie for 12th overall. If the season ended today, Edmonton would be drafting 16th overall, the lowest draft slot by Edmonton since 2008.

One quarter of the way through this season, several Oilers are on their way to career seasons, some are level par, and an enormous number are projecting career worst numbers. Here are the totals, their points-per-game and in brackets their ppg projection in the RE series:

  1. Sam Gagner 12, 4-9-13 1.08 (.744)
  2. Taylor Hall 12, 2-9-11 .917 (1.03)
  3. Ales Hemsky 12, 5-3-8 .667 (.914)
  4. Jordan Eberle 12, 3-5-8 .667 (.727)
  5. Nail Yakupov 12, 5-3-8 .667 (.578)
  6. Justin Schultz 12, 4-3-7 .583 (.405)
  7. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 11, 0-6-6 .545 (.929)

Strong starts for Sam Gagner and Taylor Hall have both looking at career seasons if they can continue the pace. Hemsky is below my projection but on pace for a good season, and Eberle is ‘in the range’ of expectations. RNH is the one player in this front line group who is off the pace, but injuries may be impacting his performance.  The two rookies are outperforming expectations, both have had an immediate and significant impact on the club. This ‘group of seven’ are going to make it easy from now on based on early performance.

 

  1. Ryan Whitney 10, 0-3-3 .300 (.436)
  2. Ladislav Smid 12, 0-2-2 .167 (.140)
  3. Teemu Hartikainen 11, 0-2-2 .182 (.345)
  4. Ryan Smyth 12, 1-1-2 .167 (.550)
  5. Shawn Horcoff 7, 1-1-2 .286 (.364)
  6. Anton Lander 4, 0-1-1 .250 (did not project him in the NHL)
  7. Magnus Paajarvi 9, 1-0-1 .111 (.308)
  8. Mark Fistric 6, 0-1-1 .167  (was not an Oiler at the time of RE projections)
  9. Lennart Petrell 12, 1-0-1 .083 (.161)

The defensemen are not counted on for offense (beyond Whitney whose number is okay), Smid has two points now and that used to be half a season. The forwards who were projected to get powerplay time (Teemu Hartikainen and Ryan Smyth) are a little below par but we’ve a long way to go. Paajarvi scored a nice goal last night, hopefully he can keep it going.

 

  1. Devan Dubnyk 2.45 .928 (2.60 .917)
  2. Nikolai Khabibulin 2.07 .933 (3.17 .897)
  3. Yann Danis 0.00 1.000 (2.90 .906)

The goaltending has been splendid top to bottom this season, all three goalies are in the black (although Dubnyk is the only one of the three who has played more than 60 minutes. Dubnyk’s performance last night was stellar. I hope Asiaoil got to  see that game.

 

 

 

 

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173 Responses to "QUARTER MOON IN A TEN CENT TOWN"

  1. asiaoil says:

    Thanks LT – felt a bit like a proud papa in the 2nd period after that save on Jack Johnson. Kid was down and out but he got back up and across in the crease square in time to rob JJ………nice :) Also the young Finn’s goal was great – good for him. But as good as I feel for DD and MSP – getting slapped around in terms of play and possession by CLB is awful – hurry back dirty russian.

  2. sliderule says:

    Lowetide you disappoint me .I was really looking forward to a draft blog.lol

    Lots of talk on the web about undisciplined penalties.The jackets had 6minutes more than us of PP time.As they had 16 shots on PP probably seven of them came on the extra time.

    We were one of the most penalized teams in the NHL last year and we are caring on.

    RK has to send a message.Take an undisciplined penalty and you miss a few shifts.Take two and you miss a period and so on.

    The coach has to control this as we are not good enough to overcome the stupidity.

  3. RMGS says:

    “We’re are the quarter pole for the 12-13 season, Edmonton is in a tie for 7th in the western conference and a tie for 12th overall.”

    So, all things said and the scary underlying numbers notwithstanding, this is a breath of fresh air. That the team’s been able to stay with the pack despite the injuries, shooting percentages, and being outplayed in several games (except in goal) is a great sign. Things can only improve, right?

    This homestand is crucial, especially right before that nasty 9-game road trip. I just hope the coach goes back to his original top two lines!

  4. slopitch says:

    Last nights game vs Columbus was disappointing but it was on the road on the second day of a B2B so no need to dwell on it I guess. Pajarvi has been a highlight for me the past 5-6 games, which might say something for those games but the fact is they are still putting up points. Petrell has also been good to my eye.

    I think this team can make the playoffs but given how tight its gonna be Id sure like to see 2 moves that improve the team. They need to add a forward and a D who can push the puck up the river and when I say forward, I think a centerman is ideal. IMO there is no point wasting those minutes on Nuge (see how the Canucks deploy the Sedins, its not an insult). Horcoff is good (but hurt), Belanger seems to be a decent break even guy. Gagner Id be selling hard for O’Reily right now. I like Gagner but he’s gonna cost a lot next year with the points he’s putting up. I’m not sure what that does for team chemistry ect but its not like they are shooting the lights out offensively as a team. On D, I think they should simply go after an expiring contract. Spacek was acquired for Samaleinen (sp?), find another deal like this. Easier said then done I suppose but this 6 year rebuild has to include a year where they learn the “hard lessons” in the playoffs. And the more steps forward they take, the more they prevent against a 6 year rebuild becoming perpetual rebuild. I’m as bullish as anyone on the Oilers but I’d sure like to see a couple moves to legitimately improve.

  5. asiaoil says:

    Yeah that crazy road trip probably lays it all out for this abbreviated season – play .500 hockey and you can legitimately think about adding some real help via trade. Crash and burn and you are selling at the deadline if not sooner. But they’ve also got to make hay on this home stand or it’s over even before they get to the airport.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    asiaoil: Also the young Finn’s goal was great

    Swede.

    but Harti and Petrell have both looked pretty solid so far this year ;)

  7. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    LT, why do you hate Petry?!

  8. jonrmcleod says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    His grandmother was Finnish.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This is my favorite item right here:

    Ladislav Smid 12, 0-2-2 .167 (.140)

    he’s killing it! outscoring RE by .027!!!

    At any rate, did anyone else think Smid looked better last night? He got the second star, which I thought was a bit of stretch, but he had like 7 hits and 3 or 4 blocks.

    Petry looked pretty good too… except for one moment that stuck out… he took an ill-advised run at someone at the D-zone blue that missed and led to scoring chance against (IIRC).

    how do we feel about them being split up? will we see this movie again?

    Also, I think the short minute guys are especially vulnerable to small sample size. Maybe PP60 is a better measure this early for them?

    Is the benefit of RNH’s poor shooting his learning how to play 2-way with the big boys? He’s looked great backchecking so far!

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    His grandmother was Finnish.

    So, he’s from Norland, then?

  11. jonrmcleod says:

    Paajarvi was on my mind prior to yesterday’s game. He had 15 goals as a rookie shooting 8.3 %. I think he was probably lucky that his percentage was that high considering the type of shots he normally takes. Hopefully with the GWG he regains some confidence. Plus, it helps that he’s been given greater responsibilities and opportunities the last few games (even getting some PP time). And it helps that he’s not getting stuck on a line with guys like Petrell and Hordichuk.

  12. hunter1909 says:

    My celtic nature dictates that game/team evaluations are done on an ongoing basis, as in, there are two things to consider: First is the state of the team which is outlined by our host Lowetide. Then there’s that chestnut of actually playing the games, against other teams who for the most part are older and meaner than the Oiler kids they play against and who take delight in smacking them around; while the veterans for the most part aren’t the types who enjoy stepping up Mark Messier style…no…the “vets” on this team many of them just want a nice soft ride. And even that’s cool so long as the kids carry them. Unfortunately, the kids can’t carry them.

    Oilers stand to gain the most from an abbreviated season, since the suffering can’t last long. No point whatsoever in optimism lol, it’s simply up to the team to provide that aspect of this oasis of unreality inside a terrifying reality, that one we all share until we die. And as for the team, they’re going to need one of those Boston Bruin/Philadelphia Flyers epiphanies – where a young talented and frequently bullied team decides it’s finally had enough and, armed with new found determination, starts dishing out punishment in the spirit of the old timey hockey proverb(Gordie Howe?) “It’s better to give than receive”.

    PS: Taylor Hall’s almost totally stopped falling down this season. Well done, Taylor.

    PPS: Justin Schultz has astonishing hockey presence. Are they having an all star game?

  13. asiaoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Hey 25% is good enough to join the club :)

    I’m still mourning the day we didn’t trade up to get Selanne – do you remember if we tried LT? – that was just after I left EDM and my memory is a bit foggy…….age, whisky, jet lag :)

  14. Bos8 says:

    What’s happening with MPS is what I consider good coaching. It’s called player development. It’s unfortunate that Kreuger didn’t have a full season to work with. Everything is condensed and tightly focused. There are some very good signs coming from the coaching. What I especially like is the treatment of Whitney and the two lumpen. Kreuger is not backing down from the higher ups. Hello Whitney – you earned the PB. Pay attention or there’s more where that came from.

    I think the OIlers are exactly where they will be at the end of the season. Somewhere between seven and twelve – which is a hell of an advance. They’re playing some excellent hockey, with some bouts of oopsies. My concern is with the D wearing down, especially The Younger. The Smid/Petry split was well done.

  15. Bos8 says:

    Oh, and switch Magnus to center already. I like his shot from the slot. That one timer was a beaut. Who the hell could skate with him – I have no idea.

  16. Clay says:

    I know this is cherry-picking, but DD without that one period vs. SJS, has a save % of .942. That’s crazy good.

  17. asiaoil says:

    No need. Just take a full calender year back to Feb 12 and he’s solid. DD will have a slump somewhere along the line this year and I still need to see him work his way out of it before I call him a finished product.

  18. Woodguy says:

    A poster said before the season started that the sucess for this team can be boiled down to 3 players.

    1) Dubnyk
    2) Whitney
    3) Hemsky

    1) No question he’s been better than expected. Positive.

    2) HS says most of it. Getting out shot and targeted by other coaches with their 1st line. Negative

    3) Some scoring, but getting severly out shot at 5v5. Negative.

    The Oiler’s in ability to get clean break outs and clean zone entries are resulting in them getting their ass kicked in shots when the game is close.

    If 6 could rely on his left anke I think that allievates a lot of this as his firsy pass is still sublime.

    It seems only 19 make a pass from the backend right now. 2 was to be relied upon for the 1st pass as well and so far its not good.

    Should the Oilers actual get an organized attack across the red line, unless 4 is on the ice everything seems to fall apart.

    RK said before the season he was going to coach defense/break out and let the skilled kids adlib after that.

    I think he needs to structure zone entries as well.

    They are awful 5v5 and 5v4 and are killing the team.

    Also,

    As others said, with all the is wrong with the team, they aren’t buried, but will be soon if they don’t start fixing the posession problems.

    5v5 SH% needs to regress back up 9ish as well, but I think the poor posession is helping drive that as well.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: 1) Dubnyk
    2) Whitney
    3) Hemsky
    1) No question he’s been better than expected. Positive.
    2) HS says most of it. Getting out shot and targeted by other coaches with their 1st line. Negative
    3) Some scoring, but getting severly out shot at 5v5. Negative.

    simple “positive”/”negative” probably doesn’t do justice to how stellar DD has been, how terrible Whitney has been and how ever so slightly under RE Hemsky has played.

    how about:

    1) A, or 8.5
    2) F, or 3.5
    3) C, or 6.5

  20. leadfarmer says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Considering Hemsky has been one of the only offensive threats, and his linemates share most of the blame for being Corsi sieves i think I would give him a B.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    leadfarmer:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Considering Hemsky has been one of the only offensive threats, and his linemates share most of the blame for being Corsi sieves i think I would give him a B.

    He leads the team in Goals afterall (tied with Yak).

    It’s unclear how much to blame Hemsky for the blame vs. his linemates. It’s times like these I wish we had King’s scoring chances for/against by individual again.

    on a strictly boxcar assessment .667 is still under par for him and it’s not his shooting percentage this year. He’s been good, but there’s room for improvement.

    at any rate, I think he warrants more than a “negative” assessment.

  22. Bos8 says:

    Poor Hemsky – carrying 2/3 of a line and he could be better? Hello!

    He’s going hard to the net, he’s forechecking and backchecking, he’s moving the puck up ice in tough minutes. What’s left to improve?

  23. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: simple “positive”/”negative” probably doesn’t do justice to how stellar DD has been, how terrible Whitney has been and how ever so slightly under RE Hemsky has played.

    how about:

    1) A, or 8.5
    2) F, or 3.5
    3) C, or 6.5

    That’s probably more fair.

    I’m a huge 83 fan. No one went more insane when it sounded like they were going to trade hi.

    I also think he’s been good offensively.

    My problem is he is relied upon to make that line an out shooting line (line 4 is) and its not happening.

    They are not facing the toughs and they should own the puck.

    Maybe 89 needs to shoulder some of the blame.

    I know 89/83 are leading the team in scoring stats, but they way they are getting their ass kicked at 5v5 posession stats against 2nd/3rd comp in inexcusable.

    I love 83 and like 89 and have defended them often, but when they are not playing up to the level where they shoud be I’d be a hypocrite if I didn’t hold them to the same standard we hold all the other players to.

  24. hunter1909 says:

    Bos8,

    Last night they had Pajaarvi with good players, and left me thinking if they decided to keep him with occasional good linemates he can provide the wrecking ball chaos the skilled guys need.

  25. Captain Obvious says:

    Am I wrong or has the team been outshot in every single game this year? Is there a single game this year where they were clearly the better team?

    Now is not the time for optimism. They have played much worse than their record. At the start of the year the team was being let down by icing terrible third and fourth lines. Now, everyone is getting outplayed. Worst of all, unlike other years, there are no more excuses. Players don’t improve magically by sheer virtue of getting older; some improve, some regress, and some stay the same.

    The question I have is where is the improvement going to come from. It isn’t good enough to wait with steadfast endurance for young players to become stars. It may never happen. Of the four young bloods only Yakupov is guaranteed to be better. Where is the improvement going to come from?

  26. wunderbar says:

    Hordichuk is on waivers.

    A sane roster move. What world is this?

  27. Woodguy says:

    Hordichuck waived.

    I don’t mind that all.

    If you need to HS 94 for his play, the only F option was 16.

    VV coming up?

  28. Woodguy says:

    I fully expect Marc Spector to melt down on his show today as the only “tough” Oiler gets waived.

    I’ll make some popcorn.

  29. Bos8 says:

    hunter1909:
    Bos8,

    Last night they had Pajaarvi with good players, and left me thinking if they decided to keep him with occasional good linemates he can provide the wrecking ball chaos the skilled guys need.

    I’ve always felt that Magnus was left sucking the hind teat when it came to linemates. Partly his fault as he matured more slowly then the others. But, he’s coming along nicely. Finally, they put him on the PK, long overdue. I still drool at the idea of him at center. But then I’ve said that before – many times.

  30. wunderbar says:

    Woodguy:
    Hordichuck waived.

    I don’t mind that all.

    If you need to HS 94 for his play, the only F option was 16.

    VV coming up?

    Stauffer seems to think it’ll be VV coming up. Safe to say he’s probably in the know on that.

  31. asiaoil says:

    Right now Gag’s points total is screaming “sell high” IMHO. Am I crazy thinking that Dubinsky might be a decent return? Nice 2nd line C with a bit of size and sandpaper to go along with our skill guys. Too much?, too little?

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: That’s probably more fair.

    I’m a huge 83 fan.No one went more insane when it sounded like they were going to trade hi.

    I also think he’s been good offensively.

    My problem is he is relied upon to make that line an out shooting line (line 4 is) and its not happening.

    They are not facing the toughs and they should own the puck.

    Maybe 89 needs to shoulder some of the blame.

    I know 89/83 are leading the team in scoring stats, but they way they are getting their ass kicked at 5v5 posession stats against 2nd/3rd comp in inexcusable.

    I love 83 and like 89 and have defended them often, but when they are not playing up to the level where they shoud be I’d be a hypocrite if I didn’t hold them to the same standard we hold all the other players to.

    Completely agreed. I know you weren’t trashing Hemsky, I know your track record. And your initial post wasn’t merely “negative”, but “3) Some scoring, but getting severly out shot at 5v5. Negative.” which is more balanced..

    but that “negative” sounded too definitive and left a bad taste in my mouth… I just wanted more nuance.

    You’ve certainly added it!

    I think if you look at this shift:

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/2/7/ales-hemsky-has-a-unique-ability-to-take-over-games

    that is the peak operational performance we can hope for with that line (or at least the 89-83 pairing with whomever they get, be it 4 or 64)

    and, if you look at last night’s Umberger goal:

    http://video.bluejackets.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=0&id=200634&cmpid=embed-share-video

    that’s probably the nadir.

    from stellar forecheck, to weak backcheck.

    At any rate, with Hemsky you’ve got to moderate between two duelling expectations: the idiot expectation that thinks he isn’t worth a bag of pucks, which he has taken to the wood shed; and, the reasonable expectation that expects him to be reliable in his own end and score .8-.9 ppg, which he hasn’t met yet this year.

    it is also worth noting last year he could blame shooting %:

    137 shots in 69 games (almost 2 per G — 1.985) for a meagre 7.3%;

    this year

    22 shots in 12 games (1.83… in the range as last year) for a stellar 22.7%.

    that is going to drop.

    but perhaps we can expect him to make up for a drop off in GPP with APP… seems likely

    He’s a very interesting player. A treat to watch… we should all be delighted he’s playing so well and still has room to improve (perhaps when he and his linemates regain control of the ice — last year, his line in the second half outchanced everyone, but was snake bit… maybe a correction is coming?)

  33. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    Must have been MacT’s doing, right?

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Great tweet from Nelson:

    https://twitter.com/Barons_Coach/status/300818255470272513

    Great win from the OIL today. Congrats. #maggiekeepshooting

    nice to see him cheer for Magnus!

  35. knighttown says:

    Halllelujah on Hordi getting waived. There’s no real downside here. He will not get claimed so he shuffles down to OKC for a bit so VV can push Smytty or whomver and with proper planning you bring him back up when you need him (which is never imo…but I’m not the coach). Just as 6/45/44 is a beatifully motivating way to handle two d-man spots having 54(?) sub in for 55, 37, 94, 91, 56 or even 64 is perfect. And believe me, none of them have played consistently well enought to be guaranteeed to be in the lineup every night. Then when Jones comes back add him to the list and voila; all bottom of the roster types are playing their bags off to keep their job.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    wunderbar,

    Woodguy,

    So… what actually happens to 16 if he isn’t picked up (I’m assuming no one wants him, right?)… would they even bother to dress him in OKC?

    feel bad for the guy… he seemed to be enjoying being around the kids. Still no room for sentimentality here. sail on 16, don’t break anyone on the way out.

  37. bookjLe says:

    I wonder if Smyth goes to the press box.

    Given that RK turned to him to play centre (i.e. put him out of position) I suspect that he will shift back to the wing VV will play centre and someone else will sit.

    Dumping/sending down hortichuk is the right thing to do. No sense carrying a player around if you can’t find a single situation to put him into in the first 1/4 of the season.

  38. In the Grease says:

    I know Treenasoil is considered far from credible, and rarely discussed anymore, but since “she” correctly called Hordichuk on waivers 18 hours ago, just for entertainment purposes can we mull this over?:

    “Oilers islanders have had several talks and are taking multiplayer maybe a “wow” deal ..as per Garfield”

  39. jonrmcleod says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That hashtag makes me think that Paajarvi has expressed some frustration about his shots not going in.

  40. bookjLe says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    He might get claimed – guys like that (some toughness) tend to be the type that often get claimed via waivers.

    I don’t know enough about the OKC 3rd and 4th lines, but I think the he could be pretty effective on one of those lines in the AHL.

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Captain Obvious: Am I wrong or has the team been outshot in every single game this year? Is there a single game this year where they were clearly the better team?

    Only three.

    EDM 32 – Van 29
    EDM 39 – LAK 31
    EDM 29 – DAL 28

    though one was close:

    EDM 29 – SJS 31 (of course we lost 6-3 that game!)

  42. bookjLe says:

    In the Grease: “Oilers islanders have had several talks and are taking multiplayer maybe a “wow” deal ..as per Garfield

    Trading with the Islanders is almost always a good idea. I think they have a mandate to lose every trade.

  43. RMGS says:

    wunderbar:
    Hordichuk is on waivers.

    A sane roster move. What world is this?

    Who knows what’s going on, but the move tells me Krueger’s being allowed to ice the team he wants and really the only one that a rational coach could want given the roster. His powers of persuasion must be “world class.”

    Waive Hordichuk to free up a valuable roster spot: check.

    Replace Whitney with a useful top 5D: next on the list.

  44. knighttown says:

    Very surpised to see such a positive attitude around here. I guess you all had a more realistic idea of what this team was than I did. They looked so good early I thought they were a few tweaks away from playing the second season.

    I guess I’d like to ask; when people are saying “they are where they should be” what do they meanl?

    1. This team is outshot and outplayed nearly every night. This is what was expected and once the luck and goaltending turns this team will be a bottom ten team. OR

    2. This team is right in the hunt for a playoff spot…right where they should be.

    This is an either/or choice cause there’s no fucking way a team being outplayed this badly, THIS CONSISTANTLY is going anywhere but down and that’s why I’m disappointed. I thought they could be an 8 seed and (although the Bettman points mask this right now) they can’t.

  45. Captain Obvious says:

    It goes to show how crazy the world is that we are pleasantly surprised that Hordichuk has been waived. In a sane world he wouldn’t have been on the roster in the first place.

    We should also check our enthusiasm. VDV can’t play either.

    [Edit] Oh, Woodugy and Romulus are right about Hemsky. I love the guy and cheered as much as anyone when they re-signed him. However, he has been worse this year at everything except for finishing. Giveaways in crucial spots, the driveby on Umberger last night, etc. In the beginning of the season I thought Yakupov was really dragging that line down but now Hemsky needs to take his fair share.

  46. RMGS says:

    knighttown:
    Very surpised to see such a positive attitude around here.I guess you all had a more realistic idea of what this team was than I did.They looked so good early I thought they were a few tweaks away from playing the second season.

    I guess I’d like to ask; when people are saying “they are where they should be” what do they meanl?

    1. This team is outshot and outplayed nearly every night.This is what was expected and once the luck and goaltending turns this team will be a bottom ten team.OR

    2.This team is right in the hunt for a playoff spot…right where they should be.

    This is an either/or choice cause there’s no fucking way a team being outplayed this badly, THIS CONSISTANTLY is going anywhere but down and that’s why I’m disappointed.I thought they could be an 8 seed and (although the Bettman points mask this right now) they can’t.

    I can’t speak for others, but I’m hopeful in part because:

    1. RNH-Hall-Eberle showed they can handle the toughs and are Corsi demons.
    2. Despite bleeding chances, Gagner-Yakupov-Hemsky have led the way in scoring actual goals.
    3. Dubnyk has been outstanding (even if he regresses a few save percentage points).
    4. Justin Schultz is going to be a superstar.
    5. MPS and Hartikainen have played their game and held their own.
    6. Rational roster moves are being made!
    7. And last but not least, the team’s still in the hunt despite the injuries and poor underlying numbers (many of which have nowhere to go but up).

  47. In the Grease says:

    bookjLe: Trading with the Islanders is almost always a good idea.I think they have a mandate to lose every trade.

    Haha. So what’s a winning trade for the OIl ? Lubo (who’s now 36), Bailey are on thin ice in L.I., Reasoner is probably still useful for faceoff duty, and maybe pry (a mostly underwhelming) Okposo out of there as well? Does Mark Streit still appeal at 35 years of age? Travis Hamonic would be a nice pick up…. would the Islanders be crazy enough to let him go? It’s hard to get too excited about anyone else on the Isles roster at this point.

  48. Oilanderp says:

    Why do we hate Petry? LT doesn’t even mention him, and WG doesn’t even consider him as a guy who can make a pass from the back end. Don’t forget about Petry! Does he still have no pts? That’s GOTTA change.

  49. LMHF#1 says:

    In the Grease:
    I know Treenasoil is considered far from credible, and rarely discussed anymore, but since “she” correctly called Hordichuk on waivers 18 hours ago, just for entertainment purposes can we mull this over?:

    “Oilers islanders have had several talks and are taking multiplayer maybe a “wow” deal ..as per Garfield”

    Whitney for Visnovsky in reverse?

    Bigger deal I’d target Visnovsky, Streit, Bailey and Reasoner.

    Am I crazy to think they’d consider trading Tavares? These are the Islanders we’re talking about…

  50. In the Grease says:

    LMHF#1: Whitney for Visnovsky in reverse?

    Bigger deal I’d target Visnovsky, Streit, Bailey and Reasoner.

    Am I crazy to think they’d consider trading Tavares? These are the Islanders we’re talking about…

    What’s left of the Isles fan base would burn down Nassau Colisseum – which needs burning down anyway, and since the Isles are moving to Brooklyn….

  51. Hayek says:

    As per TSN, Horidchuk has been placed on waivers.

    WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  52. Lois Lowe says:

    To my eye, and I haven’t seen every game, the issue with the Oilers this season (and last) is how much of their offence is generated off the rush. This season’s team has been much better about sustaining offensive pressure via the cycle than they have been in years, but the majority of the Oiler chances are still of the ‘one-and-done’ variety and usually lead to a loss of possession after the shot.

    Another thing I am wondering is whether RK’s system allows for higher shot totals so long as the shots are coming from the outside. I remember in 2006 after they traded for Roloson the Oilers were also getting creamed in the shot total department and I remember something about him requesting that the Oilers try not to block as many shots because he was okay with facing more if he could see them and if they were from a ways out.

  53. Woodguy says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,

    Must have been MacT’s doing, right?

    Tambellini is still asking for help finding Teletubbies on the TV.

    RMGS:
    Matheson’s kinda like John the Baptist:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/02/11/so-what-is-the-plan-for-ryan-whitney/

    Great description of Matty’s telegraph pieces.

  54. Woodguy says:

    asiaoil:
    Right now Gag’s points total is screaming “sell high” IMHO. Am I crazy thinking that Dubinsky might be a decent return? Nice 2nd line C with a bit of size and sandpaper to go along with our skill guys. Too much?, too little?

    Dubinksy isn’t enough.

    O’Reilly or bust!!

    At the rate 89 is scoring he’ll be asking for $5MM next year too.

  55. jake70 says:

    In the Grease: What’s left of the Isles fan base would burn down Nassau Colisseum – which needs burning down anyway, and since the Isles are moving to Brooklyn….

    There may have been others but pre-draft I threw out an idea if the Oilers brass could get Snow in a very weak moment and pry Tavares out of NY for Gagner and the first overall and whatever other fillers required. I was thinking of Kreuger and the “pairs” idea……RNH, Tavares your centers, Eberle and Hall your top 2 wingers, build from that. Tavares signed through 2018 at 5.5M cap hit. Now, post-draft, would you consider Yak + Gagner for a Tavares? Hmmm. Hall-Gagner for Tavares? (eh Ashley??)

  56. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy: Dubinksy isn’t enough.

    O’Reilly or bust!!

    At the rate 89 is scoring he’ll be asking for $5MM next year too.

    I’m currently torn on whether they should be talking contract extension with Gagner right now or waiting until the end of the season. He could level off…though in that instance they might be inclined to trade him…many possibilities.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Oilanderp:
    Why do we hate Petry? LT doesn’t even mention him, and WG doesn’t even consider him as a guy who can make a pass from the back end.Don’t forget about Petry!Does he still have no pts?That’s GOTTA change.

    He passed well last year.

    I hope he finds it again.

  58. bookjLe says:

    Woodguy:
    Willis nails the Oilers’ problem today:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/02/11/the-edmonton-oilers-switched-coaches-but-nothing-seems-to-have-changed/

    What? That the Oilers don’t shoot enough and also don’t score enough? Yep, but I don’t see that as any revelation. As per the coaching change – I think RK needs at least a half a season before we note that he is “the same as Renney”. I see some key differences in deployment and a few other things.

    Really, what we have now is a small sample that indicates little more than this team is not a Stanley Cup contender right now. I think it takes another month or so before we start drawing any conclusions beyond that.

  59. godot10 says:

    The remaining fighting teams are mostly in the Eastern Conference. The Western Conference is more “pacifist”. Randy Carlyle moved east. Bruce Boudreau moved West. San Jose dumped one of their fighters, and the ended up in Toronto.

    So it sort of obviated any need at all for Hordichuk.

    Every game is a playoff game. Teams don’t fight in the playoffs.

    The speed of the game is slowly pushing the fighters out, because most of them cannot keep up and play a real hockey role anymore, so they just end up sitting on the bench or the pressbox, and more and more coaches are just saying “f%^$ it”…don’t need that guy.

  60. knighttown says:

    Woodguy:
    Willis nails the Oilers’ problem today:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/02/11/the-edmonton-oilers-switched-coaches-but-nothing-seems-to-have-changed/

    That’s obviously a little more clear than my post but yeah, that’s kind of what I was saying. The comment I keep hearing is

    “We’re getting killed in shots and scoring chances but we’re still right in it! No where to go but up!

    That’s where the disconnect is. Unless something changes drastically we’re heading into a mine shaft. It happens slowly in the new NHL where loser points are everywhere but once you are down in the 10-12 range it’s really hard to claw back out.

    Shocked and disappointed that this 12 game stretch was worse than any of the segments last year. And remember, the Oilers were supposed to come out on fire because of all the lockout chemistry, blah, blah.

    If I had to bet on lottery slot (or at least in the old world) or playoff slot I know what I’d wager on.

  61. godot10 says:

    That was Willis needing something to write about again to make his quota. For that post, he conveniently forgot about advanced stats (particularly the Oilers EV shooting percentage).

    He also failed to not that Krueger is riding the kids, giving them 20 plus minutes per game, unlike Renney. Unlike Renney, Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Belanger, Petrell look like players under Krueger. They looked like duds under Renney.

    Renney also treated Gagner like the plague. Tried to run him off the team last year. Gagner is a PPG guy under Krueger, given much more difficult minutes, and some PK work.

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Willis nails the Oilers’ problem today:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/02/11/the-edmonton-oilers-switched-coaches-but-nothing-seems-to-have-changed/

    a couple of thoughts on WIllis’ article

    1. it seems to me “nothing seems to have changed” is a huge over-reach. the team is being coached quite differently. the results in one area (shots for and against) remain static… but that outcome has been reached by a different set of operations utilizing the same basic parts.

    2. is the coach the driving cause of this one statistical area (shots for and against)? Surely RK, or Renney, or whomever bares a great deal of responsibility for the performance of a team. However, isolating this question to who is the coach seems unpersuasive, esp. when the mgt. staff has not changed, or made any significant changes to the basic parts of the team and those basic parts (the players) also remain authors of their own performance.

  63. nelson88 says:

    asiaoil,

    I am a fan of Gagner but think Dubinsky is exactly the type of player they should be targeting if they can get value back. Ex. how about Dubinsky and the BJ’s 2nd round pick (likely to be 31 or 32) or the Rangers 1st? Package that pick with our own 1st to move up and grab Monahan and you start to have some meaningful depth at the position.

    O’Reilly would be great but if the Avalance are balking on paying him as a 2nd line C why would they want to pay that money to Gagner unless they think he is a better player? Clearly most commentators here don’t think that is the case.

  64. BlacqueJacque says:

    knighttown,

    I don’t think you read that blog correctly. The Oilers did better in this stretch than they did in most last year. Certainly it isn’t the worst.

  65. BlacqueJacque says:

    Nm I see he means shot totals.

    Thr Columbus game was a tragedy in that regard and the Detroit game very worrisome.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10:
    The remaining fighting teams are mostly in the Eastern Conference.The Western Conference is more “pacifist”.Randy Carlyle moved east.Bruce Boudreau moved West.San Jose dumped one of their fighters, and the ended up in Toronto.

    So it sort of obviated any need at all for Hordichuk.

    Every game is a playoff game.Teams don’t fight in the playoffs.

    The speed of the game is slowly pushing the fighters out, because most of them cannot keep up and play a real hockey role anymore, so they just end up sitting on the bench or the pressbox, and more and more coaches are just saying “f%^$ it”…don’t need that guy.

    I think that battle of Penn. last year shook up some folks. two really, really talented teams playing like it was a wrestling match with all the silly characters, outsized egos, grandstanding and “tough” play.

    I wonder if that is what made the east feel like even skilled teams needed this padding of stupid thuggery to win…

    of course both of those teams lost and fast

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    It takes a while for players to get used to a new system and the players have had a new system every year. Time for some stability.

    So glad they are getting rid of their goon. Goons only fight other goons. You cant put them on the ice against the top 6 in an attempt to rough them up cause they won’t engage them and they will bleed chances against like crazy. Even most third lines eat them up so they only play 3-4 minutes and mostly when the other goon is on the ice.

  68. delooper says:

    The reason the Oilers don’t shoot much (unless it’s a high-percentage shot) is because they know deep-down if the goalie stops it and covers up, they’ll lose the ensuing faceoff. You shoot low-percentage shots when you know they won’t hurt you in the end. When you know they can hurt you, you hold back and take high percentage shots… less often.

  69. knighttown says:

    Another status quo opinion we all seem to spout off on from time to time is that our kids are only “x” years. Wait till they are 27…it will be glorious.

    I’m going to spout off a hypothesis but since I’m not a stats guy I can’t really test it. Hopefully the work has been done.

    A highly drafted forward’s improvement in output from age 20 to age 27 (if there is any) is more closely correlated to opportunity than it is to actual improvement.

    The story goes that once the Nuge (or Hall or Ebs or Yak) turn 25 they will be unstoppable but I kind of feel that what you see is what you get. Not at 18…Yak still has to figure a lot of shit out. Let’s take the other 3 kids. They all got primo time last year (PP1, top 6) and so their role won’t change much over the next few years. How much improvement is reasonable especially when you consider that some potential improvement must be balanced against handling tougher assignements as new kids break in.

    Other top picks:

    Ovechkin-106, 92, 112, 110, 109, 85, 65
    Crosby- 102, 120, 109**, 103, 109
    Kane- 72, 70, 88,73, 66
    Stamkos- 46 (different role), 95, 91, 97
    Malkin 85, 106, 113, 92*, 69, 109

    These are the whiz kids that would have had the identical treatment to 93 and 4. They were at the top of their class and pushed their way to the forefront of their terrible teams.

    What I’m seeing is a nice jump in year 2 (Stamkos year 3) and then top performance in year 3. From there it’s a crap shoot. Some combination of wear and tear, role change due to new kids getting the cherry minutes or a better understanding by the opposition on how to stop them causes this progression to stop.

    So where is this meteoric rise?

    All of these guys

  70. bookjLe says:

    Woodguy:
    Willis nails the Oilers’ problem today:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/02/11/the-edmonton-oilers-switched-coaches-but-nothing-seems-to-have-changed/

    WOW – nice job Woodguy, you got like 5 responses to the JW article you linked. I hope D_S_F doesn’t learn about this approach to commenting as it could greatly enhance his trolling efficiency.

  71. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Hemsky only projects to a 20 goal season. And don’t get me started on Smurf Gagner.

  72. Bar_Qu says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Hemsky only projects to a 20 goal season. And don’t get me started on Smurf Gagner.

    Do you mean that Gagner projects to a 50pt season? Or 82+ if this were not an owner-shortened season?

    Yeah, I’d hate to start you down that road.

    And I don’t know if the Willis article points out anything other than this is not yet a complete team. Lacking, say, another strong reliable defender, possibly another veteran pivot who can move play up ice efficiently and a few less yips in the short game. Which doesn’t properly lay the blame at the right feet – coaches don’t control roster (Hordichuk waiving aside).

  73. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bar_Qu: And I don’t know if the Willis article points out anything other than this is not yet a complete team. Lacking, say, another strong reliable defender, possibly another veteran pivot who can move play up ice efficiently and a few less yips in the short game. Which doesn’t properly lay the blame at the right feet – coaches don’t control roster (Hordichuk waiving aside).

    IMO Willis is guilty of burying the lede and unnecessary conflation of stories.

    the lede is clearly that the team still struggles in the shots for/against category. that story gets lost somewhat by the erroneous coaching storyline. In fact, Willis doesn’t attempt to argue how coaching has affected the outcomes this year and last

    there are two stories here that ought to be separated out:

    1) why was a coaching change made (he rightly points out we don’t really know) and subsequently how has RK changed things?

    2) how is the team performing re: shots for/against and is that a good predictor of outcomes (vs. goals) and what are the causes (he leaves this question aside)

  74. bookjLe says:

    Bar_Qu,

    Your sarcasm detector may be broken.

    The sarcasm is set with the feigned ignorance of the ‘only 20 goals’ comment as though the author of the statement is not aware that the season is only 48 games long and that 20 goals would be very impressive in such as season. The ‘Smurf’ thing for the highest point scorer on the team is the “hey in case you didn’t catch it, this is sarcasm” phrase.

  75. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Bar_Qu,

    You forgot your sarcasm detector at home, no?

    No matter how good 83 and 89 are this season there are fans in this town who will somehow forgot the length of the season. And when you call them on it they’ll tell you 83 would not have survived a full season. If RNH ends up needing surgery he should look up whoever patched 83′s shoulders.

  76. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    bookjLe: Your sarcasm detector may be broken.

    Нинтендо⁶⁴: You forgot your sarcasm detector at home, no?

    I just thought this needed to be highlighted!

    nice sandwich job!

  77. ohhell says:

    Captain Obvious:
    It goes to show how crazy the world is that we are pleasantly surprised that Hordichuk has been waived.In a sane world he wouldn’t have been on the roster in the first place.

    We should also check our enthusiasm.VDV can’t play either.

    [Edit] Oh, Woodugy and Romulus are right about Hemsky.I love the guy and cheered as much as anyone when they re-signed him.However, he has been worse this year at everything except for finishing.Giveaways in crucial spots, the driveby on Umberger last night, etc.In the beginning of the season I thought Yakupov was really dragging that line down but now Hemsky needs to take his fair share.

    Captain Obvious,

    I am not convinced that Hemsky should be singled out as the defensive problem on that line. From my perspective, the kings of the five-alarm giveaways belong to Gagner and Hall who happen to be leading the team in scoring. Gagner has created more scoring chances for the opposition than his own linemates and his backchecking has been marginal at best. By my observation, Hall and Hemsky have been the best oiler forwards over the course of the first 12 games.

  78. Captain Happy says:

    bookjLe: WOW – nice job Woodguy, you got like 5 responses to the JW article you linked.I hope D_S_F doesn’t learn about this approach to commenting as it could greatly enhance his trolling efficiency.

    Interesting that when Willis points out what is as plain as the nose on your face, it’s great work.

    When the much maligned Dee Ess Eff pointed it out months ago, it’s called trolling.

    The Oilers were lucky to finished where they did last season (if you can call 29th lucky) and they are VERY lucky to be where they are in the standings right now.

    They are currently being outshot by 7.8 shots per game which, over a full 82 game season would be an incredible 640 shots.

    At an average shooting percentage of 8%, the Oilers could have a goal differential of -51.

    Now, yesterday’s game against Columbus skewed those numbers somewhat but the underlying numbers suggest the Oilers are not a very good hockey team.

    It’s just math.

  79. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    bookjLe,

    Never thought I’d see a 16 word post subjected to a close literary reading. Can’t wait until you take on one of DMW’s. And yes Smurf was literally the last word added to bring the sarc level up to screamingly obvious.

  80. delooper says:

    Captain Happy:

    Now, yesterday’s game against Columbus skewed those numbers somewhat but the underlying numbers suggest the Oilers are not a very good hockey team.

    It’s just math.

    So you must have some clear evidence that the only way to be a good hockey team is having a high, positive shot differential. No good hockey teams have ever been outshot, in the history of forever, right? … and no bad hockey teams have ever managed to shoot more than their opponents. That’s why Columbus is a such a good team…

    Eagerly awaiting your evidence.

  81. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “When the much maligned Dee Ess Eff pointed it out months ago, it’s called trolling.”

    Captain Happy,

    Only his hairdresser knows for sure (and whoever reads ip from the log), but if the commenter is referring to himself in the 3rd person we call this sockpuppetry.

  82. bookjLe says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    I take sarcasm seriously! Seriously!

    For years, I thought it was Deadman Walking and I never manage to get through them because he uses too many big words and it makes my little brain hurt.

    D_S_F – 80% of what you say is bang on so when someone else says similar things it’s not surprising – 20% of what you say are distortions (including the use of intently selected statistics) and that is where the Troll label comes from. I actually think you could be one of the most respected bloggers/commentors in the Oilogosphere if you didn’t have such fun getting a rise out of people.

  83. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    bookjLe,

    Where would we be without those who police the margins of the sarchasm?

  84. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    delooper: So you must have some clear evidence that the only way to be a good hockey team is having a high, positive shot differential.No good hockey teams have ever been outshot, in the history of forever, right? … and no bad hockey teams have ever managed to shoot more than their opponents.That’s why Columbus is a such a good team…

    Eagerly awaiting your evidence.

    The point of Willis’ article (the coaching bit aside) is that shot differential over time (not in isolated events) is important because:

    1) it is less prone to streaky play/variance and

    2) therefore it is a good indicator of what’s under the hood, i.e. good teams come out looking good under this rubric (he argues this point in the comments):

    “The Vancouver Canucks last year took 50.6% of all shots in their games, and were better than that with the score close. The Los Angeles Kings took 52.8% of all shots in their games, and were also better than that with the score close.

    Good teams are above 50% of shots.”

  85. delooper says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    Good teams are above 50% of shots.”

    That last quote — to what extent is it true? I recall a lot of good teams that would consistently get outshot. The last few good Oilers teams (if you think waaay back) got outshot quite a lot. They gave the opposition near endless peripheral shots, but rarely let them in close. And they’d mostly score off turnovers.

    If your only measure of good team is the one that wins the cup, you’re probably not going to get any reliable indicator of success since the cup winners tend to track well in most every measurable category. I think it was interesting that the Kings had such a sucky power play. That was one of the most clear indicators of what drove the Kings success — kick-ass 5v5 play.

  86. hunter1909 says:

    bookjLe: that is where the Troll label comes from

    How’s about him saying the Wild prospects/young players are superior to the Oilers? Isn’t that enough to hang him?

    Anyway it hardly matters who says what about the Oilers right now. They’re clearly a team on the rise; and only Flames fans/bipolar Oiler fans appear worried. You all know who you are.

  87. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    delooper: That last quote — to what extent is it true?I recall a lot of good teams that would consistently get outshot.The last few good Oilers teams (if you think waaay back) got outshot quite a lot.They gave the opposition near endless peripheral shots, but rarely let them in close. And they’d mostly score off turnovers.

    If your only measure of good team is the one that wins the cup, you’re probably not going to get any reliable indicator of success since the cup winners tend to track well in most every measurable category.I think it was interesting that the Kings had such a sucky power play. That was one of the most clear indicators of what drove the Kings success — kick-ass 5v5 play.

    Just look at the NHL.com results

    last year:
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20112012&type=CON

    near every Playoff team has a positive goal differential

    same for the year before:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20102011&type=CON

    seems like a pretty steady, credible and most importantly predicative stat.

    the last time we made the POs we were +5

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20052006&type=CON

  88. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    delooper,

    I too wonder how strong the correlation to shots is for close scores and if the correlation gets stronger as the season progresses and whistles are swallowed.

    It would be interesting to compare regular season shot and goal differentials and see which is a stronger predictor of playoff results.

  89. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: The point of Willis’ article (the coaching bit aside) is that shot differential over time (not in isolated events) is important because:

    1) it is less prone to streaky play/variance and

    2) therefore it is a good indicator of what’s under the hood, i.e. good teams come out looking good under this rubric (he argues this point in the comments):

    Renney was in the 2nd year of his program. He had a full training camp. All his role players underperformed.

    Krueger is in the first year of his program, with no training camp, with a much more agressive system, with a significant change in roles, responsibilities, and ice time. He has been hit early in three games with significant injuries. One game to Fistric and Horcoff. Another game to Belanger. And a third game to Lander. And of his role players are mostly playing to expectation.

    Gagner is a PPG player while being asked to handle much tougher minutes and till recently with a rookie on his wing. He set up a beautiful shorthanded goal last night with hard work and great vision. So does his defense still look a little wonky. Sure. But consider the context and the production in that context.

    We knew we weren’t getting a goalscorer when we drafted Nugent-Hopkins. Eberle and Hall have been snakebit shooting, and the PP has trailed off. Take away those two things, in addition to his own gripping of the stick too hard, and Nugent-Hopkins boxcars would be fine. Not to mention his overall 200 foot game, which has taken a big step forward.

  90. delooper says:

    Okay but now notice you’re saying something different. You’re not saying shot differential is the thing you *need* to be a good team, just that most good teams have a positive one.

    I kind of feel like we’re trying to read-in to the stats in a far too literal, linear way. The Oilers don’t shoot a lot because it gets them into trouble. They shoot, and much of the time the opposition goalie covers-up, they lose the faceoff, and the Oilers are back in their defensive zone trying to stop a blitz.

    Shot differential isn’t a magic thing you change, and it’s not even always a thing you need to really change, depending on your team’s style. In this case I think shot differential is just a symptom of losing too many faceofffs.

  91. Captain Obvious says:

    knighttown:
    Another status quo opinion we all seem to spout off on from time to time is that our kids are only “x” years.Wait till they are 27…it will be glorious.

    I’m going to spout off a hypothesis but since I’m not a stats guy I can’t really test it.Hopefully the work has been done.

    A highly drafted forward’s improvement in output from age 20 to age 27 (if there is any) is more closely correlated to opportunity than it is to actual improvement.

    The story goes that once the Nuge (or Hall or Ebs or Yak) turn 25 they will be unstoppable but I kind of feel that what you see is what you get.Not at 18…Yak still has to figure a lot of shit out.Let’s take the other 3 kids.They all got primo time last year (PP1, top 6) and so their role won’t change much over the next few years.How much improvement is reasonable especially when you consider that some potential improvement must be balanced against handling tougher assignements as new kids break in.

    Other top picks:

    Ovechkin-106, 92, 112, 110, 109, 85, 65
    Crosby- 102, 120, 109**, 103, 109
    Kane- 72, 70, 88,73, 66
    Stamkos- 46 (different role), 95, 91, 97
    Malkin 85, 106, 113, 92*, 69, 109

    These are the whiz kids that would have had the identical treatment to 93 and 4.They were at the top of their class and pushed their way to the forefront of their terrible teams.

    What I’m seeing is a nice jump in year 2 (Stamkos year 3) and then top performance in year 3.From there it’s a crap shoot.Some combination of wear and tear, role change due to new kids getting the cherry minutes or a better understanding by the opposition on how to stop them causes this progression to stop.

    So where is this meteoric rise?

    All of these guys

    I’ve been saying this all year. The plan seems to be to wait for the young players to get better. However, it simply isn’t true that young players continuously get better. Scorers peak very early and then plateau before declining. It is very possible that with Eberle certainly and Hall a little less so, that what you see is what you get. Gagner is well on his way to his career year points wise.

    If improvement is going to come it can’t only come from the kids.

  92. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    delooper: Okay but now notice you’re saying something different.

    Big Time…

    just realized I posted the nhl’s goal differential stats. whoops!

    what an idiot!!

  93. leadfarmer says:

    Shot measurements are a very poor way of figuring out which team is better. A shot on goal from your own zone counts the same as a breakaway shot. Some teams keep all shots to the perimeter while others allow a lot of rebounds and odd man rushes while having close to the same amount of shots. You need a degree of difficulty shot fudge factor multiplier ranging from 0.1 as shot from beyond the blue line to 2.0 for a clean breakaway shot with other chances somewhere in between to get anything useful. But this team plays like crap and you dont need statistics to tell you that.

  94. Captain Happy says:

    delooper: So you must have some clear evidence that the only way to be a good hockey team is having a high, positive shot differential.No good hockey teams have ever been outshot, in the history of forever, right? … and no bad hockey teams have ever managed to shoot more than their opponents.That’s why Columbus is a such a good team…

    Eagerly awaiting your evidence.

    Good grief.

    It’s just common sense that, on average, a team that outshoots the opposition will be successful.

    Here are the teams that outshot their opposition last season:

    Vancouver
    Boston
    NY Rangers
    Pittsburgh
    STL
    NJ
    Detroit
    Philly
    Chicago
    San Jose
    Colorado
    LAK

    And here are the teams that didn’t.

    Winnipeg (even)
    Nashville (outlier?)
    Phoenix
    Washington
    Dallas
    Ottawa (only 0.6)
    Buffalo
    Florida (only 0.8)
    Tampa
    Calgary
    Minnesota
    Toronto
    Anaheim
    Islanders
    Carolina
    Edmonton
    Montreal
    Columbus

    As you can see, the only teams that were outshot that made the playoffs were Nashville, Florida and Ottawa and the latter 2 were almost even.

    Eagerly awaiting your evidence that a team like the Oilers who are consistently outshot can make the playoffs.

  95. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Without looking I’d be pretty sure the correlation to making the playoffs is strongest to win differential and weakest to shot differential with goal differential somewhere in the middle!

    But the question is which is more predictive of playoff and next season results.

  96. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Without looking I’d be pretty sure the correlation to making the playoffs is strongest to win differential and weakest to shot differential with goal differential somewhere in the middle!

    But the question is which is more predictive of playoff and next season results.

    hahaha!!

    how about this:

    winning is a good indication of a good team; scoring more is a good indication of winning; shooting more is a good indication of scoring more.

  97. Bos8 says:

    I’m not that excited about the shot differential at this time. There are a lot of factors involved that will stabilize as the season progresses. As Kreuger said, the focus was on defense and play away from the puck, the last thing they worried about was the offense as in “Let the kids improvise”, a Sather dictum “You don’t coach Gretzky, you stay out of the way”.

    The kids will adjust. There are enough up arrows in this short time frame that I remain optimistic.

  98. Captain Happy says:

    Shots

    Goals

    Wins

    Profit

  99. leadfarmer says:

    So the Eastern Conference Champions outshot their opponents by less than 30 shots over a season. The Canucks were even. The Flames were 2nd best by this metric. Islanders were top 10. Montreal Canadiens were better than the NYR. Detroit tied with WPG. Clearly there must be a better statistic out there.

  100. BlacqueJacque says:

    Which of the Captain Suicidals is D.S.F., remind me again?

  101. Ribs says:

    Captain Obvious: I’ve been saying this all year.The plan seems to be to wait for the young players to get better.However, it simply isn’t true that young players continuously get better.Scorers peak very early and then plateau before declining.It is very possible that with Eberle certainly and Hall a little less so, that what you see is what you get.Gagner is well on his way to his career year points wise.

    If improvement is going to come it can’t only come from the kids.

    The plateau you speak of is usually where the players play their best hockey. Their game is more rounded and they contribute the most to their team in this state.

    Good things are ahead.

    We wait.

  102. B S says:

    hunter1909: How’s about him saying the Wild prospects/young players are superior to the Oilers? Isn’t that enough to hang him?

    Anyway it hardly matters who says what about the Oilers right now. They’re clearly a team on the rise; and only Flames fans/bipolar Oiler fans appear worried. You all know who you are.

    *raises hand*

    Sorry, I’m very worried. When a team is playing like crap against toothless teams like Columbus and Colorado it is a bad team. Gagner, Schultz, and Dubnyk are the only players playing past expectations. Yak, Schultz the Elder, and Paajarvi and Harti are playing to expectations. Ebs, Hall and Nuge are getting too cute, they are rocking possession, but possession doesn’t win games (it helps, but it’s not the basis for awarding victories), goals do and they aren’t scoring goals. Hemsky is too selfish, I blame this on him getting early off the ice during practice. If he stayed on He’d realize that Yakupov doesn’t need time to adjust, or even prime scoring opportunities. The kid is dead accurate, quick on the release and ALWAYS in good position in the opposition’s zone.

    The top line needs to outscore their opponents 5v5 if this team is going to win. Hemsky (and Gagner too) needs to realize that using that other linemate sort of evens the odds at even strength. Oh, and for the love of all that is holy, Hall needs to dump the freaking puck when he’s drawn 3 of the 4 PKers on the PP. There’s a pretty good chance that if he does one of the Oilers other 4 players are going to get that puck.

  103. Bos8 says:

    Yep that looked funny on the PP. Both teams were on one side of the ice, I kept waiting for the rink to tip.

  104. Bar_Qu says:

    bookjLe,

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    Yes, yes you are right. My sarcasm detector failed miserably. I would like to blame the plethora of 11 yr olds who lack even basic sarcasm skills, but, ugh. Mea culpa. #facepalm

  105. denny33 says:

    knighttown,
    Knighttown has it right…. unusre what people are seeing. And why so many positive comments.

    Really, if Mr. Dubnyk was not standing on his head this season we could be talking about the possibilty of Seth Jones or Nathan Mackinnon. Because of our goaltending, we are in the hunt for a playoff spot.

    There have been 3 games where the oppostion TV crew was falling all over themselves heaping love on DD. I am positive the Columbus crew obtained a DD autograph yesterday.

    We get OWNED 5 on 5. People here seem to think it is some quirky statistic. I am wondering if there might be some actual Reasons why this is the case?

    Our defence is way below average.

    Ryan Whitney is emberassing to watch in his own end and has been from the 2nd game of the season.

    Nick Schultz has been okay but I have seen a few brutal giveaways from him

    My prized pairing of Smid and Petry has been marginal at best. Even the local media has picked up on this – in particular Mr. Petry. This group has been sub par.

    Potter has been average to a disaster ( I used to really like him ) and this hurts because for some reason I like this guy. Maybe because we share the same footspeed.

    Fistric has impressed me ( I know he is not fast ) and seem like a legitimate 3rd pairing.

    I am as big a fan of Hemsky as anyone but I have a tough time explaining how he can dominate some games for stretches at a time and then vanish.

    Hemsky’s line ( I am unsure where the total blame lies ) is Terrible defensivley and as many point out – they are not facing teams best unit every night.

    Nail is 18 and Hemsky and Gagner are physically smaller than the average high school player….San Jose / Vancoucer ( when healthy ) will own those guys.

    I thought RNH, Hall and Everle were going to LIGHT up this league coming off the lockout. But that has not happened. Hall has been good and Eberle almost should socre very game bu the truth is RNH has been fighting the puck.

    I dont’ get and certainly nobody outside Edmonton gets our 4th line of Europeans and Belanger….
    Petrell has 1 point / Belanger has NONE / Hartikainen has 2 points. Let nobody accuse this group of intimidating other teams physically. I will concede the great work Petrell does on PK.

    MPS – he has only 1 point and is a -3 . He has been playing a lot better lately …but throw him in with the other Europeans and you have minus players who don’t produce points.

    Petrell, Hartikainen, MPS and Belanger…4 points between them all.

  106. sliderule says:

    The oilers will cut their s/a if they quit taking so many penalties.

    They have 20 minutes more than any other team.

    Even the mighty canuckeheads would be getting outshot if they took as many.

  107. Bar_Qu says:

    That is “the plethora of 11 yr olds who surround me”

    I can’t even speak. I may give up trying.

  108. denny33 says:

    knighttown,

    I find that scary and hard to argue with ….

    Like I said, RNH, Hall and Eberle were playing high level hockey while a lot players were on the COUCH.

    Would have bet the farm – they would have TORCHED some teams coming out of the gate. Jordan Eberle has 8 points in 12 games

  109. chadsc says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Correlation to winning percentage (every team season since lockout):

    Goal Differential Per Game 0.932725768
    Goals -0.048090012
    Shot Differential Per Game 0.568143417
    SOG 0.450427934
    Team Shooting Percentage 0.378489455

    From the databases at SportingCharts.com

    Chad
    SportingCharts

  110. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy,

    My problem is he is relied upon to make that line an out shooting line (line 4 is) and its not happening.
    They are not facing the toughs and they should own the puck.
    Maybe 89 needs to shoulder some of the blame.

    That should have read:

    My problem is he is being relied upon to make that line an out shooting line (like Hall does) and its not happening.

    They are not facing the toughs and they should own the puck.
    89 has to take some of that blame.

  111. B S says:

    denny33,

    I agree with you on most, except the 4th line. They’re our 4th line for crying out loud, not our 1st. They have been much better this season and were turning a corner until Belanger was injured.

    Potter’s performance is no suprise. I was never a fan of his. Out of the first dozen games last season when he was supposedly good, I only saw him play one good game, the rest of them he (and the rest of the team) was bailed out by the Drunken Russian.

    Bar_Qu:
    That is “the plethora of 11 yr olds who surround me”

    I can’t even speak. I may give up trying.

    Umm… you did sea what happened to Michael Jackson right?

    Anyway, I don’t put much faith in stats, especially “advanced stats” for making accurate extrapolations in biological systems, but the Oilers are not posting any better results than they did last season at this point (12 games in), and have yet to show any indication that they are going to get better (Sh% regression is great and all, but whose to say it will change, they arrived at a bad shooting percentage by playing lousy hockey, until they play better there is no logical reason to expect those stats to improve). I’m not gloom and doom, but I do think there is a problem when Magnus Paajarvi is arguably your best skater through the last 3 games. The team needs to work for the puck rather than shoot and skate away, or hope that the other team will accidentally pass to them. If they can get that work ethic then they should be a much better team.

  112. Bos8 says:

    If I was Yakupov, I’d do the Anderson/Messier RW blast. Hemsky draws three, Drop Pass, Yakupov peels off up the middle.

  113. Woodguy says:

    chadsc:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Correlation to winning percentage (every team season since lockout):

    Goal Differential Per Game0.932725768
    Goals -0.048090012
    Shot Differential Per Game0.568143417
    SOG 0.450427934
    Team Shooting Percentage0.378489455

    From the databases at SportingCharts.com

    Chad
    SportingCharts

    That’s awesome!

    Please keep posting.

    All,

    One flaw in counting shots is that often a team that is behind in a game will get more shots than the team that is ahead as they are “trying harder” to get back in the game.

    This is known as “score effects”

    To remove this effect (or deal with it better) you will see some stats that say “5v5 close”, often that refers to the shots in the game state of being tied, score within 1, and sometimes score within 2.

    Its not perfect, but it is a better predictor than just straight “shots”

    Here is last year’s list of team’s “FENCLOSE”. That is Fenwick (all shot attempts – blocked shots as it gives the defensive team credit for blocking a shot. Corsi counts blocked shots too as it is trying more to measure puck possesion)

    http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2011.php?sort=6&section=close

    Here is this year’s team FENCLOSE numbers:

    http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2012.php?sort=6&section=close

    You can find this anytime by going to behindthenet.ca and clicking on “old site”, then pick a season, and then Team Fenwick data.

    An obvious outlier in both years is NAS, with terrible FENCLOSE numbers.

    Old no-neck wins by great goaltending and boring you to death.

    Chad,

    Any chance running some regression analysis on Team Fenwick data from the last few years in regards to regular season point totals?

  114. BlacqueJacque says:

    denny33,

    I’m not going to say things are stellar but I see signs of progress (season over season, the past few games have been dreadful).

    Most of the Oilers 5v5 problems have been problems of youth, coaching and strategy. Krueger needs to teach them to dump the puck if only to make defencemen back off from the blue. Krueger definitely needs to crack the whip on bad penalties. Finally, I agree that our defence is bad. Whitney is done. No longer effective on defense and unlike Cam Barker, its not a problem that shows its head whenever Barker has a brain fart. Whitney lacks speed and this can be consistently taken advantage of. He’s not slower sometimes, he is slow all the time.

    Outside of Schultz, Schultz and Smid, our dmen haven’t played consistently enough. Even Smid is suspect. Petry isn’t up to speed and Fistric hasn’t played enough. Petry not only needs to be better defensively but he also needs to engage on offense.

    A few key veterans and we are a playoff team. And thus year we need to at least challenge for a playoff spot, or i can see the kids – especially Hall – get frustrated.

    And for fuck’s sake another effort like against Columbus, and I’d bag skate them in morning practice. If they don’t want to get tired during the game, they can get tired before it.

  115. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    chadsc:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Correlation to winning percentage (every team season since lockout):

    Goal Differential Per Game0.932725768
    Goals -0.048090012
    Shot Differential Per Game0.568143417
    SOG 0.450427934
    Team Shooting Percentage0.378489455

    From the databases at SportingCharts.com

    Chad
    SportingCharts

    thanks!

    now, what do those #s mean.

    talk to me like a guy that earlier mistook goal differential numbers for shot differential numbers.

  116. B S says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    The closer to 1.0 it is the greater the positive correlation (0, no relationship, 1 essentially the same). basically Goal differential is damned similar to winning, Shot differential much less so and Team shooting percentage is only weakly related to winning. Essentially if you were going to use one of the stats to predict winning percentage goal differential would be a very safe bet, shot differential and shooting percentage should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Edit: short version: Teams with a high goal differential almost always have a high winning percentage.

  117. chadsc says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    These number measure the relationship between the statistics (goal differential per game) to winning percentage. The closer to 1 the more they are positively related (if one goes up the other should go up by a relatively similar amount). The closer to -1 the more they are negatively correlated (if one goes up the other should move in the opposite direction by a relatively similar amount).

    Correlations
    1 = high positive correlation
    0 = no correlation
    -1 = high negative correlation

    For example, the highest correlation to winning percentage is Goal Differential Per Game, which makes sense. You score more goals than opponents, you win more games and have a higher winning percentage.

    Goal Differential Per Game – very highly related to winning
    Goals – no correlation to winning
    Shot Differential Per Game – strong correlation to winning
    Shots on goal – medium correlation to winning
    Team Shooting Percentage – medium correlation to winning

    @woodguy – I’ll see what I can do about Fenwick correlations – we are still adding datasets to the site and are making our way to the more advanced stuff soon.

  118. B S says:

    chadsc,

    How are you calculating your correlation (linear correlation, “Pearson” coefficient I’d assume) and how is the distribution for your data?

  119. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    B S,

    chadsc,

    thanks for the info guys. stats as a craft is foreign to me.

    now… what is this saying:

    Goals -0.048090012
    Goals – no correlation to winning

  120. BlacqueJacque says:

    Chad,

    Could I convince you to make league-wide historical charts, as well as comparison charts (team vs team, team vs division, team vs division-team, or better yet multiple teams against each other (sortable by division/conference).

    And if you ever have time, a chart of goalie pad size relative to net size over the years would be great…

  121. "Steve Smith" says:

    Captain Happy: Good grief.

    It’s just common sense that, on average, a team that outshoots the opposition will be successful.

    This is only part of why the good Captain was such an early and enthusiastic supporter of stats like Corsi, and has remained so to this day.

  122. Woodguy says:

    chadsc,

    That’s great Chad.

    We’ll get you a bunch more traffic. (Me at least 50 times a day to start)

  123. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    I think the exceptation of improved performance comes from the fact that 4-93-14 out shot or came close to a draw against the best lines in the WC.

    They went against the best and came out ahead (in terms of shots)

    They are 20, 19, and 22 years old.

    During that time their ONSH% was under 5% and all three were over 10% last year so you expect the goals to start going in to match the shooting.

    For 3 kids to pull that off is unreal.

    Unreal.

    During that time 64-89-83 find the net more, but are being outshot but players not as good as 4-93-14 are playing.

    Up is down. Black is white etc.

    So we waiting for the gifted line to break out and hoped 64-89-83 pulled their socks up.

    Then all of them shit the bed a few games in a row and now we here people on the radio wanting to trade 83 or 89 for Boyle for fucks sake and we all lose our shit waiting for them to be better.

    I think it all boils down to zone exits and zone entries and shooting the goddam puck when you’re in a shooting area.

    Most goals aren’t on the first shot.

    Shoot the puck, go to the net if you don’t have the puck.

    I think they’ll get better, but until then we’ll freak out.

  124. leadfarmer says:

    I wonder how good Klefbom would have been if not for the injuries and lost development time. He has been compared fairly well with Brodin in the past who has been playing no. 2 defenseman for the wild and doing fairly well.

  125. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    I wonder how good Klefbom would have been if not for the injuries and lost development time.He has been compared fairly well with Brodin in the past who has been playing no. 2 defenseman for the wild and doing fairly well.

    I suspect we’ll find out when the fall comes. He was becoming dominant in the SEL, some of the players were suggesting they were going to ‘enjoy him while he was still here’ which is pretty incredible.

    So if he comes here and can’t make it as a top 4D, then I think it is reasonable to suggest the injuries had a significant impact. Miles to go, though.

  126. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”: This is only part of why the good Captain was such an early and enthusiastic supporter of stats like Corsi, and has remained so to this day.

    That’s my favorite aspect of Cappy Dee Ess Eff

    Loves shots.

    Hates when you count them and call it something else.

  127. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    What we also need to know is the QC of those players in the early years.

    Were they playing the Thorton’s of the leauge or the random 3C’s?

    One reason for all the optimism is 4-93-14 is playing the toughs, and getting the best of it at 20-19-22 years old.

    Pretty damn good.

  128. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy: That’s my favorite aspect of Cappy Dee Ess Eff

    Loves shots.

    Hates when you count them and call it something else.

    No, I hate when you count missed shots and blocked shots and think it tells you anything useful.

    100% of missed and blocked shots don’t result in goals nor do they measure possession no matter how much you squint.

    Nice try though.

  129. "Steve Smith" says:

    Captain Happy: 100% of missed and blocked shots don’t result in goals

    100% of shots stopped by goalies don’t result in goals.

  130. Captain Happy says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Shocking news!

    Is that “intellectual Property ®”

  131. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    how is possession tracked in football/soccer? less fluid game to be sure, but they seems to track simple possession time.

  132. bookjLe says:

    LT’s posted another post, so I suspect this one will die, but before it does let me state the following.

    I look forward to grand joy, favourable interpretation of Fenwicorsicki statistics, RK worship, and optimism all around with discussions of play-off rankings here after the Oilers win three games in a row.

  133. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Nice to see correlation data, but same year correlations only tell me that goals win games more than shots. The interesting thing is to check predictive value. What do this years shots and goals tell me about next years goals and wins?

  134. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    B S,

    chadsc,

    thanks for the info guys. stats as a craft is foreign to me.

    now… what is this saying:

    Goals -0.048090012
    Goals – no correlation to winning

    It says that it doesn’t matter how many you score, as long as you score more than the other guys.

    i.e. Last year TOR had the 10th most goals in the league, while SC champs LAK had the 29th most goals.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20112012&sort=standingsGoalsFor&type=LEA

    A wise man once said “its what you create minus what you give up”

  135. Woodguy says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Chad,

    Could I convince you to make league-wide historical charts, as well as comparison charts (team vs team, team vs division, team vs division-team, or better yet multiple teams against each other (sortable by division/conference).

    And if you ever have time, a chart of goalie pad size relative to net size over the years would be great…

    Would you like fries with that?

  136. Woodguy says:

    Captain Happy: No, I hate when you count missed shots and blocked shots and think it tells you anything useful.

    100% of missed and blocked shots don’t result in goals nor do they measure possession no matter how much you squint.

    Nice try though.

    Prove that missed shots don’t mean anything.

  137. BlacqueJacque says:

    “Steve Smith”: 100% of shots stopped by goalies don’t result in goals.

    Oh snap.

    I had a good, genuine LOL out of that.

  138. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Lowetide,

    Quite the exclusive club with 6 guys with 5×5 goals so far. With the 1-2 shooters having lowest percentages in that group at 3 and 5 per cent.

  139. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy

    ah… that makes sense… the “shorthand” threw me… I guess.

    Most often, if I’ve asked a question… an answer that is less than straightforward and aimed at a childlike intelligence and wonderment is only going to be met with more questions.

    edit: crap I effed this post up somehow… whatever.

  140. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Somewhere there must be proof that that shots not taken do not score.

  141. "Steve Smith" says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    BlacqueJacque,

    Somewhere there must be proof that that shots not taken do not score.

    I’d cite Wayne Gretzky, but I’d risk being accused of appealing to authority.

  142. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I wonder if instead of shots (missed, blocked, on net) there were a stat for number of passes…?

    would that help?

  143. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Steve Smith”: I’d cite Wayne Gretzky, but I’d risk being accused of appealing to authority.

    when in doubt cite Todd Harvey, or GS Brown.

  144. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Woodguy,

    That small negative correlation of goals and wins might even be worse for goals and points. Pity the teams that trade chances and routinely miss out on the Bettman point.

  145. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.” – Yogi

  146. "Steve Smith" says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: when in doubt cite Todd Harvey, or GS Brown.

    True enough: they’re no authorities, and I’m not appealing.

  147. knighttown says:

    Woodguy:
    knighttown,

    I think the exceptation of improved performance comes from the fact that 4-93-14 out shot or came close to a draw against the best lines in the WC.

    They went against the best and came out ahead (in terms of shots)

    I think they’ll get better, but until then we’ll freak out.

    And really, that’s what I’m saying too. They played well early and there was reason for optimism but in the present they’ve fully deserved this pitiful stretch. Many are saying that puck luck has turned but that is completely untrue…sure ONSh% may be down but Lord knows On Save 5 is way up.

    Did injuries cause this? Eh…I don’t think we’re any worse off than many others.
    Tougher competition? No, I’d say it’s been a softer schedule.

    Perhaps their run early was the OKC bump but it just didn’t last long and now that they are up to speed, the likes of Benn and Datsyuk (and even frigging Umberger) are running even the kids show.

  148. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy: Prove that missed shots don’t mean anything.

    Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

  149. Lowetide says:

    knighttown: And really, that’s what I’m saying too.They played well early and there was reason for optimism but in the present they’ve fully deserved this pitiful stretch.Many are saying that puck luck has turned but that is completely untrue…sure ONSh% may be down but Lord knows On Save 5 is way up.

    Did injuries cause this?Eh…I don’t think we’re any worse off than many others.
    Tougher competition?No, I’d say it’s been a softer schedule.

    Perhaps their run early was the OKC bump but it just didn’t last long and now that they are up to speed, the likes of Benn and Datsyuk (and even frigging Umberger) are running even the kids show.

    To my eye it isn’t the kids–Hall’s line is a CorsiRel miracle and they’re facing tough opps. The Gagner-Hemsky pairing with whomever jumps over the boards needs to be better.

    jmo.

  150. Woodguy says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Nice to see correlation data, but same year correlations only tell me that goals win games more than shots. The interesting thing is to check predictive value. What do this years shots and goals tell me about next years goals and wins?

    If not much changed in the important part of the line up, I’d guess “not much would change”

    I think coppernblue had something on the predictive ability of out shoot from one year to the next, but if they did, it was a while back.

  151. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”: I’d cite Wayne Gretzky, but I’d risk being accused of appealing to authority.

    Burned at the stake for it actually.

  152. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I wonder if instead of shots (missed, blocked, on net) there were a stat for number of passes…?

    would that help?

    Attempted passes
    Passes completed

    I know these stats are kept by many NHL organizations.

    Hell, even the Oilers have counted that for years and years.

    Its too bad that the NHL doesn’t keep that stat (not that they could count is correctly, but I’d probably be close enough).

    All the advanced stats sites rely on NHL.com data.

    I’d love to see it.

    I think its very, very important.

    Especially for Dmen.

    A little too much “off the glass and out” happening these days on the Oilers, but that’s also due to pressure, which the forwards are responsible for as well.

  153. Woodguy says:

    Captain Happy: Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

    I have evidence that good Corsi numbers are highly correlated with winning.

    I’ve provided the links more than once for you.

    You have never presented evidence that your random musings mean anything other than a decently informed opinion.

  154. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    And really, that’s what I’m saying too. They played well early and there was reason for optimism but in the present they’ve fully deserved this pitiful stretch. Many are saying that puck luck has turned but that is completely untrue…sure ONSh% may be down but Lord knows On Save 5 is way up.

    I read somewhere the other day that a PK% had a higher correlation with winning than PP%.

    Never pursued it as I read it on my mobile screen.

    Dovetails with your info that teams win more when SV% is up compared to SH%.

  155. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy: I have evidence that goodCorsi numbers are highly correlated with winning.

    I’ve provided the links more than once for you.

    You have never presented evidence that your random musings mean anything other than a decently informed opinion.

    Once you produce evidence that Corsi numbers have a higher correlation to winning than shots for/against, you might have a leg to stand on.

    Trying to use Corsi as a means of measuring possession, which is the bang you have been drumming, is not even as interesting as random musings.

  156. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy: The Oiler’s in ability to get clean break outs and clean zone entries are resulting in them getting their ass kicked in shots when the game is close.

    One of the biggest things I teach my players is that 90% of turnovers happen within ten feet of either blueline. Cut down on those and you cut down on shots against and increase your shots for. I’m surprised that RK hasn’t emphasized that with this team. Switzerland seemed to live and die off the chip plays when RK was their coach.

  157. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Attempted passes
    Passes completed

    I know these stats are kept by many NHL organizations.

    Hell, even the Oilers have counted that for years and years.

    Its too bad that the NHL doesn’t keep that stat (not that they could count is correctly, but I’d probably be close enough).

    All the advanced stats sites rely on NHL.com data.

    I’d love to see it.

    I think its very, very important.

    Especially for Dmen.

    A little too much “off the glass and out” happening these days on the Oilers, but that’s also due to pressure, which the forwards are responsible for as well.

    I know that the number one goal of nhl teams is maximal obfuscation and lack of transparency… but why wouldn’t they release whatever data they have?

  158. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach: One of the biggest things I teach my players is that 90% of turnovers happen within ten feet of either blueline.Cut down on those and you cut down on shots against and increase your shots for.I’m surprised that RK hasn’t emphasized that with this team.Switzerland seemed to live and die off the chip plays when RK was their coach.

    I sure hope they don’t coach the creativity out of these kids.

  159. hunter1909 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I know that the number one goal of nhl teams is maximal obfuscation and lack of transparency… but why wouldn’t they release whatever data they have?

    Competitive reasons. They don’t want to let their fellow teams know organizational secrets, etc.

    It’s why a lot of things are not freely available as people think.

  160. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    hunter1909: Competitive reasons. They don’t want to let their fellow teams know organizational secrets, etc.

    It’s why a lot of things are not freely available as people think.

    sure… but why make public shots, hits, blocks, etc. but not passes?

    what makes passes special enough to bother to collect data and then not release it?

    and, why not simply get the NHL to collect the data… ie not the teams individually? couldn’t the shot counter pull double duty?

  161. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I sure hope they don’t coach the creativity out of these kids.

    Not sure that’s possible.

    Soft chip will help the fast kids a lot.

    NHL Dmen don’t get beat 2 on 1 too often, but with a chip and whack the puck at the net the rebounds can be juicy if everyone is facing the end boards.

  162. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: sure… but why make public shots, hits, blocks, etc. but not passes?

    what makes passes special enough to bother to collect data and then not release it?

    and, why not simply get the NHL to collect the data… ie not the teams individually? couldn’t the shot counter pull double duty?

    Given how shitty many shot/block/give-away/steal counters are and how they vary, it would probably best to add another body and that’s expensive.

    Some of the shot/block/steal/give-away data is so skewed by some counters that you have to look at road data to get rid of extremes/noise.

  163. Captain Happy says:

    Dustin Penner with his first point of the season!

  164. hunter1909 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I cannot answer your questions.

    They’ll kill me.

  165. CrazyCoach says:

    Lowetide: I sure hope they don’t coach the creativity out of these kids.

    I’m hoping the same as you LT. I often thought when RK was coaching Switzerland, he got Ferrari mileage out of Yugo. I imagine there were many in here like me who really noticed the job RK did with that team, especially the 2010 and 2006 Olympics, where RK coached his squad to a 1-1 record against Canada, and actually finished higher than Canada in the A pool at the 2006 games. The result of RK’s work in Switzerland moved them from “B” pool calibre to a weak “A” pool team. I watched him with interest and that interest grew when I saw that he was going to become the Oilers new coach.

    My thought then was that he did quite well at two areas: Getting the most out of his players, and developing talent.

    I’m not so sure out of the former based on the quarter pole mark here, but I do see him taking a greater interest in developing the young talent a little more. It’s hard to say how effective he is right now. New coach, new style, new expectations. It’s nice to be the new coach: you haven’t lost too much, you sound better than the last guy, the media still hasn’t dug you a big enough hole to bury you in, and so on.

    Just speaking from experience here, and trying to see where this fits in from a coaching perspective.

    What do I see? A team that still hasn’t fully bought in to RK’s system, and these recent HS’s tell me that some players better start buying in in an awful hurry, or as Russel Peters says, “Someone’s gonna get a hurt!”

  166. VOR says:

    Captain Happy,

    I think the burden is on you to prove shots are more correlated to winning than is corsi. I wish you luck with that. We will all be waiting for your demonstration.

    I can tell you at least this much – for the 2009-2010 season for forwards with more than 60 games played (n=301) a Z-test a T-test and covariance test of corsi/versus goal differential for all players in the set and shot differential versus goal differential leads to the conclusion that for members of the set goal differential for 60 mins on are slightly better correlated with Corsi than with Shot Differentials. The covariance tests (I ran both a P and a Q) show a startingly difference (Corsi does a 3.13 times better job of predicting goal differential than shot differential does). Since we know team goal differentail is a) highly correlated with winning and b) comprised of the individual goal differentials of team members it is pretty clear for forwards in 2009/2010 Corsi does a better job of predicting goal differential for a team than would shot differentials.

    I have decided after failing several times to be able to send this data to lowetide that I will set up a blog to host the data and then you can all tear into it – I’ll also post the results of all the data analysis.

    But for now trust me on this Captain Happy, I think you are facing an uphill battle to prove that Shots work better than Corsi for predicting winning percentages, especially given there are a number of excellent studies (I am not including mine which is still very preliminary but as far as I know the only one to use pair variance testing amongst subsets of individuals) that show strong correlations for both Team Fenwick and Team Corsi being tied to winning % and at the moment I can’t find any that show as strong a correlation for shots.

    As Chad said above, shot differential correlates to winning with about an r = 0.568 whereas the r value for Fenwick and Corsi is generally found to be between .75 and .85. Which is close to the .73 I am finding in my work on individual players (admittedly early days yet). It also makes sense given most studies show goal differential to winning to be r = greater than .90, Corsi seems to correlate to goal differential around r = .8 + so Corsi would seem likely to be strongly correlated to winning.

    My point simply is that much as you don’t like it Corsi has in fact been well studied and consistently shown to be correlated with winning. On the other hand shot differential generally is correlated but not as strongly as Corsi, Fenwick, or Shot percentage (which is shots for/shots for + shots against) for teams. Yes, I know that last one sounds like it should be the same as shot differential but it isn’t. So you really bare the burden of proof, not Woodguy. Corsi has reached the point in its study, use, and acceptance that it is innocent until proven guilty. As the lone voice crying out in the wilderness you must convince us all we are wrong.

  167. BlacqueJacque says:

    Hey, VOR that is possibly the most enlightening post about Corsi’s value I have ever read. Not sure why LT wouldn’t want to use your stats but meh, feel free to make a blog.

  168. VOR says:

    BlacqueJacque

    The fault is mine not LT’s. There is something about the size or format of table I created that isn’t very useful for sharing. They keep getting bounced back to me or the people at the other end can’t open them, and it isn’t just LT.

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