SMALL VICTORIES ARE BIG STEPS
I’ve always liked Magnus Paajarvi, he’s a fast train and displays a nice range of skills. I didn’t think the Oilers had any chance of getting him at #10 overall in 2009, and most of the draft predictions had him gone before Edmonton made their selection.
I am very interested to see how new coach Ralph Krueger handles Paajarvi, because there’s a player there and I think we can see him from here.
- Positives: He’s an absolute rocket on skates, with size and (possible failing) hands. He is uncommonly aware of defense and positioning for a player his age.
- Negatives: He’s a little shy in some of the physical areas of the ice and doesn’t use his body like you’d like him to; he’s also quick to exit the scoring zones and cheat for defense. That is also listed as a positive, but there are opportunities available he is not taking advantage of currently.
I felt Krueger might use him in a two-way role, a Pisani role. We would recognize it if we saw Paajarvi playing with Horcoff/Smyth or if he got some time on the penalty kill.
HOW IS RALPH USING HIM?
Ralph Krueger is using Magnus at even strength (9:15) and on the PK (1:28) AS WELL AS the PP (0:31) in small glimpses. This differs from his usage under coach Tom Renney, who gave MP 13:31 (EV) and 1:50 (PP) as a rookie and 11:46 (EV) and 1:01 (PP) as a sophomore. Renney didn’t see Paajarvi as a penalty killer, despite his speed and wingspan.
qual comp
The Qual Comp charts can sometimes be a little wonky, but with the understanding that the season is early and by eye Paajarvi’s line does seem to be facing three line opposition. The exception to the rule is last night against Dallas.
corsi rel
Paajarvi finished 8th (10-11, as a rookie) and 4th (last season) in this discipline and if you’re a believer in CorsiRel (as I am) then it’s a very good tell. Paajarvi ranks 7th here, but really 4th among the men who are not on the ridiculous 1line.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
To my eye, Krueger is using Paajarvi in a more “complete” role, giving him a chance to show his stuff. This is a player who scored 15 goals as a rookie and clearly has some confidence issues with the puck. As we roll along this season and the wins and losses become even more dear, I wonder if RK will trust the young Paajarvi in these areas. Right now things are looking pretty good for Paajarvi, he’s getting some traction and even some offense showed this week.
Small victories are big steps.
I wish there was a way to compensate for zone starts and opposition with Corsi.
He’s about 50% zone start so neither fish nor foul but the qual comp suggests to me that Krueger spent quite a bit of time early trying to get Hartikainen-Paajarvi some good opportunities.
Some one needs to come up with a overall stat (on for wing, center, and D). It would incorporate Corsi/Fenwick, PDO, Zone Starts/Finishes, Box Cars, Plus Minus, Penalties drawn, QOC, QOL, etc.
It would be one super number that gives us an overall effectiveness of a player in all disciplines and relative to team, linemates, competition, and league. Hence a defensive forward could impact the game more than a more offensive forward who puts up more points a season.
Dustin Brown would be rated higher than his scoring shows.
Pajaarvi probably gets more abuse from opposition players than anyone I’ve seen in my entire life – regular gloves to the face and often actual short punches to his head – just because the book on him says he’s a…and sorry in advance to the PC brigade minded ones who read this – a proverbial chicken Swede.
Except…
He isn’t. He’s just figuring things out in his autistic/nordic/unfathomable development curve.
Thank fuck Brian Blowhard failed priest asshole Burke hasn’t been running the Oilers, as MPS would be a Duck.
hunter1909,
I have noticed young Yak is getting much the same from the opposition. And every single time he retaliates he is off to the penalty box. As a fan it gets a bit much to see the ref turn the blind eye just because he is a rookie and/or a Russsian. Or both.
I understand having to pay your dues, but a penalty is a penalty.
I think it’s important that Yak retaliate, even if he takes the penalty.
Next year, he won’t be harassed as much.
I remember this one Gordie How story from an article, where he was explaining his approach to playing against someone for the first time – usually, obviously, a rookie. At the face-off, he’d cheap-shot his new opponent with a stick jab to the ribs, or an elbow, or if they didn’t get entangled, he’d mess the guy up in the corner. And Gordie said (I paraphrase) “If he didn’t respond, if he didn’t slash me back or punch me, I knew I had him for the rest of my career.”
BlacqueJacque,
I agree on the approach. He is retaliating and I hope he continues for exactly that reason. I just get tired of seeing that the vet gets away unscathed and Yak skates off to the box for 2 minutes. It’s silly, but reality I guess.
Matt Cooke with a sneaky skate attack on Eric Karlsson, cutting him, maybe his Achilles.
Plausible deniability perhaps, but we all know better.
If that happens to Schultz (or, say, Smid does it to Doughty), how do you not want a Chris Neil or at least Hordichuk on the ice?
lmao well c’est naturallmant. Don’t, and I repeat D.O.N.T. worry about Yakupov – This kid’s got the gumption of a 1962 seven year old kid when he shot off a major league rifle at the St. Albert pre-duck hunting season Community Hall Fair and nabbed the prize! Assisting, LOL, an actual adult duck hunting type who held, sighted, and no doubt actually fired that rifle.
FOR THE PARANOID OILER FANS:
The next 4 games will 100% determine the entire season. With of course, that pesky 7-9-11 to WTF HOW MANY GAMES IS IT road trip from heaven ha ha
and yes I am drinking at the moment.
I’ve been meaning to ask for a while, LT, but when you’re discussing Corsi stats, why do you use CorsiRel (which compares players to their teammates) by itself instead of also showing the raw Corsi totals?
What I hear you saying is that he’s enigmatic.
Gawd, we need to get him on a line playing center between Hemsky and Yakupov. We can call them the Enigma Machine.
Seriously though, what would MPS’s potential be at center? Got the speed and the defensive chops… man, if he could learn to be a net presence like Smyth or Penner (okay not EXACTLY like Penner, but he was a great goalie screen), he could be incredibly useful, no? Seems more sense to move him off the wing than it would someone like Hall who folks frequently want to see at C, despite his insistence that he prefers playing wing and his (imho) weaker defensive game.
To tell you the truth I dont know why qualcomp isn’t merely TOI/gm modified by ZS.
That tells you where the opposing coach places his player in the peecking order, which means more than someone having a statistically anomolous year and fooling the system.
I mean EV TOI/gm.
Some one needs to come up with a overall stat
I fooled with that for a while.
I labeled that column “MN” for Magic Number.
I used BTN numbers, the ones I felt were important.
So, being an Oiler bloggerista, I, of course, eschewed the “goal” columns.
Psyche!
I actually counted Goals twice because I used Pts/60 and G/60.
I got an average for each column and divided each player’s number by the average.
Over 1.00 was Good, less than 1.00 was “Welcome to Loserville”
I than added, multiplied, subtracted…. the numbers in various combinations to come up with a MN.
Hint – use as few columns as possible.
Columns are like cooks, too many spOil the magic number broth.
I think I still have that spreadsheet saved somewhere.
The numbers are all out of date of course.
Did it look dirty at all? Bob M @ TSN via twitter says that he has a cut Achilles. Needs surgery. Yikes! That’s a huge blow to the Sens.
This site has options to adjust for ZS and Game State (5v5 close)
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/
Great site.
Play around with it.
The elusive theory of everything.
Word has it Vic Ferarri figured it out and then either a NHL team hired him or his head exploded.
That’s what I’m doing, slotting players in as compared to the rest of the roster. I’m not the only one who uses it, am I lol? I like it BECAUSE it is comparing players against their teammates.
Because if you used straight corsi on a team that finished 30th, 30th and 29th you’d think everyone sucked?
I grade 8 a buddy had his Achilles severed.
Was a year before he walked without a cast.
Back in the dark ages of 1984 mind you.
Had a cast surrounding the foot and half way up his calf.
icecastles,
I like the cut of your jib, Sir.
5v5 TOI, not total right?
Depends on how the opposiition coach deploys as well.
If you are good are you seeing Thorton or are you seeing Steve Kasper?
I swear and if I say that magic Las Vegas insipid LMAO….
Us/We Oiler fans reside in Magic Carpet Ride Territory….
I decided at some insipid/crazed point to consider the Oilers as Playoff bound….
Woodguy,
WTF are you insane???
Give the universe a respite, and stop pontificating ffs it’s making me want to throw up in an endless chain of goddamned vomit forever and ever you arsehole….
lol sorry about the previous post.
Lowetide,
You’re definitely not the only one using it! I’m not trying to say it’s a bad tool, just that using it without making reference to the raw numbers can paint a funny picture. With Corsi Rel, each team is a zero sum game, and there’s no regard for the overall quality of the team. Right now, for instance, the top line looks dominant by Corsi Rel, and you’d figure them to be one of the very best lines in the league if that was all the information you had, but it isn’t the case. None of those forwards are among the top fifty in Corsi / 60, but they look incredible because the rest of the club has terrible possession numbers. If we don’t make any adjustments for zones or competition, four of the worst twenty Corsi / 60 forwards in the league are Oilers (Belanger, Hemsky, Gagner, and Petrell). Corsi obviously isn’t the only thing that matters, but I’d suggest that mixing some of the raw numbers in would provide some helpful context.
As for the larger “theory of everything” discussion, I’d much rather see the components than try to roll everything together into one number.
From TSN:
Speaking on Insider Trading on Tuesday night, TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger said that according to sources, the Avalanche have already started trade discussions with Eastern Conference teams.
“One team told me earlier that the expected return [for Ryan O'Reilly ] is a roster player and a top prospect.,” Dreger said.
Can Lowe or MacT or Tambo pick up the phone and see if the Oilers can meet that price? Players like Ryan O’Reilly do not come on the market very often.
GCW: I don’t think the Avs deal him to Edmonton. Unless its a massive overpay and why do that?
Tambellini, please please do not claim Matt Kassian.
MPS = Kent Manderville
A size/speed combo that is exhilirating and rare but ultimately unproductive due to hockey sense and lack of physicality
I can’t imagine MPS ever blossoming into a top six player
The biggest question surrounding MPS should be nailing the ideal moment where he can bring some sort of return
That was an unfortunate injury to Eric Karlsson probably out for the year.
It was not intentional.
Ottawa needs a puck moving D man
Was that before or after he proved Goldbach’s conjecture and that P=NP?
The number of people who know what I’m talking about without Wikipedia will say a lot about this place.
gcw_rocks,
I agree. Colorado would need a center and a Dman for him.
Manderville was a completely different hockey player, miles of difference. Manderville’s career high in goals was 7, as a for instance.
As for Karlsson, I know we can’t find him guilty, but I already have.
Scott Reynolds,
None of those forwards are among the top fifty in Corsi / 60, but they look incredible because the rest of the club has terrible possession numbers. If we don’t make any adjustments for zones or competition, four of the worst twenty Corsi / 60 forwards in the league are Oilers (Belanger, Hemsky, Gagner, and Petrell). Corsi obviously isn’t the only thing that matters, but I’d suggest that mixing some of the raw numbers in would provide some helpful context.
They are also a 21-19-22 year old who are out shooting Thorton, Benn, Jagr, Sedins etc.
I wish that corsi was adjust for qual comp because these kids are unreal for their age.
Hall drives the bus, but RNH is a stick wizard in any zone and Eberle gets in shooting areas less than 2ft square and out waits goalies while pissing ice cubes.
Good times.
Cooke is never intentional. He is opportunistic. And what happened today is classic opportunistic Matt Cooke.
Hey Sidney, Matt Cooke is still your teammate. When the effing hell are you going to do something about it?
godot10,
It was a hockey play period.
Woodguy,
I’m certainly not trying to say that those three players are poor, just that they’re not one of the two or three best EV lines in the league right now, which is what their Rel Corsi would usually imply. Incidentally, it would be really interesting to see the possession numbers broken out by opponent (e.g. Hall’s Corsi is +20 -15 in 15 EV minutes against Thornton). Do you know if that information is available?
Lowetide,
Manderville was a PPG player in the AHL who basically never left the show (despite consistenly only putting up between 12-20 points) because teams couldn’t resist a big man who moved that fast. He played 646 games despite only scoring 37 goals, that’s almost unheard of for a non-fighter.
He was a PK specialist near the end of his career
MPS will follow a similar path, such an incredible talent set that it fools the brain into believing there is a player.
If MPS was a 6th round pick fans would be crying bloody murder about his icetime
Look, you’re just confusing people who didn’t see Kent Manderville play.
Nostradumbass,
Just seven forwards in history with at least 600 GP and no more than 40 goals: Stu Grimson, Mark Janssens, Ryan Johnson, Kent Manderville, Jody Shelley, Adam Mair, and Eric Boulton.
Micheal Parkatti started boysonthebus.com and has manually counted corsi events in most Oiler games.
Add to that leftwinglock.com’s line matching app tool: http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-matching/
And you can get a feel for it pretty quickly.
Small samples, but fun to look at.
Also,
Eager was praised for his game vs Dallas and he was a team worst -11 in shot differential as per Micheal Parketti: http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/02/13/game-notes-oilersstars-feb-12/
While playing against:
REILLY SMITH CODY EAKIN TOMAS VINCOUR 26.32% (ROOKIE LINE)
VERNON FIDDLER RYAN GARBUTT ERIC NYSTROM 23.68%
LOUI ERIKSSON DEREK ROY MICHAEL RYDER 13.16%
JAMIE BENN JAROMIR JAGR BRENDEN MORROW 13.16%
REILLY SMITH CODY EAKIN RYAN GARBUTT 7.89%
ERIC NYSTROM DEREK ROY MICHAEL RYDER 7.89%
Eberle was a team best at +11 while playing against:
JAMIE BENN JAROMIR JAGR BRENDEN MORROW 30.77%
VERNON FIDDLER RYAN GARBUTT ERIC NYSTROM 23.08%
LOUI ERIKSSON DEREK ROY MICHAEL RYDER 15.38%
REILLY SMITH CODY EAKIN TOMAS VINCOUR 12.31%
Who cares if Paajarvi doesn’t become a top 6 player? The Oilers already have Hall, Eberle, Yakupov, and Hemsky. They don’t need Paajarvi in the top 6. A team needs 12 forwards, and contenders are 3 lines deep. Paajarvi has the potential to be an elite cheap 3rd line forward. That size and skating ability and defensive awareness mean he can be groomed into a hockey version of Dennis Rodman, and elite value-for-money matchup player.
Scott Reynolds,
just that they’re not one of the two or three best EV lines in the league right now, which is what their Rel Corsi would usually imply.
I thought it implied best on their team?
LT is a pretty optimistic fellow, he needs some Oilers to look good.
@LT
I had opined about Paajarvi as a potential centre a short while back. Any thoughts on that? Your pros and cons seem to describe somebody who could play the position.
As for CorsiRel, I’m still an advanced stat neophyte, but I defaulted to CorsiRel pretty quickly. By eye it looks like one of the best general stats for ranking forwards.
Goddam assholes DAL start Bachman in CAL tonight and CAL has lit him up for 6 goals in 2 periods.
Assholes.
Worm has turned now that EDM gets goalie #1 and CAL gets #2 in B2B games.
Now more goals in the Dallas-Calgary game than the Oilers have scored at even strength in the entire season. Wowzers.
Edit: My bad. Edmonton has 12 ES goals on the season, only 10 goals scored in the Cal/Dal game. 14 minutes to play though…
Also,
Matt Cooke should be kicked out of the league.
He should have been kicked out years ago.
Stepping down on an ankle like he did takes premeditation and intention.
Not a an accident by my eye.
If you aren’t Dee Ess Eff, you are his cousin.
Or Traktor.
The only hesitation I have is that no one has really talked about it, either in pre or post draft scouting reports or organizational men discussing problem solving.
Well top line of 4-93-14 is pretty well sorted – leave it be.
One bottom six vet line of 94-20-28 probably also gets the job done once Jones is back
Another bottom six line of 56-10-91 intrigues me once Horcov returns.
That leaves the 2nd line which is a mess and spare parts like 55 and 37. Yak should be a lock on the 2nd line RW and that frees us up to deal 83 for a dman. I’d also move 89 while his value is high as I just don’t think he will ever contribute meaningfully at the defensive end, physically or with faceoffs. I’d like Dubinsky for Gagner if CLB bites – then shop Hemsky with or without Whitney for a big salary dman with years on his deal. I’d also bring back Penner as I think Kruger is exactly the right coach for his personality.
That would make a 2nd line of Penner Dubinsky Yak which is much bigger and grittier. Eberle and Yak might swap once 64 is more capable of handling defensive responsibilities – and I’d like a Penner-Dubinsky-Eberle 2nd line a lot thank you very much.
….and the defense would be:
5 – 19
Hemsky trade – 2
15 – 45 – 24 – 44
That gets us to the playoffs but means 2 big trades and getting Penner back, and I don’t believe that this mgmt team has the chops to pull off one of those deals let alone three without a year or two to “evaluate”. But Hemmer and Gags are probably at max value now and it’s time to pull the trigger.
I don’t hate the player, he’s freaking breathtaking to watch skate
But I go entire games forgetting he plays for us and if I do notice him its generally for throwing a solid wrister into the goalies crest.
My point is simply are we ignoring all the warning signs because of his physical talent?
Sombody mentioned an elite 3rd liner, maybe he could be a Chimera for us, gosh knows that would be extremely valuable for this club. But even in Chimera’s early seasons when he played 60 or so games on our 4th line I always remember him A) creating chances and B) being disruptive on the forecheck.
Are we seeing that in Magnus?
Looking at those charts and all I can say is RNH? Wow. Just wow. What a fn player he is and what a magnificent ceiling he has. For all the Hall love here on a daily basis I will take one Mr Hopkins to be the real “on ice” leader of this team.
Then I look at Scarlett’s pic and contemplate advanced stats, ie where my zone starts would be deployed. Would have to be offensive and then get progressively more offensive. In fact I can’t think of one damn situation where I’d even think about being defensive.
How the F would you get up and go to work in the morning if you were involved with something like that. Damn. Perpetual wood.
Your two comments seem at odds to me. I am old enough to remember when certain players were feared enough to actually be a deterrent. They were also hockey players, as the newspaper clip in a previous thread here mentioned Semenko as the best Oiler forward on the night for the team in a similar time in the development curve against the Bruins.
Semenko whalloped a Bruin, and both teams stood in awe, as Cementhead was able to do with complete, undisputed, and devastating ass kickings of other established tough players. Thing is, they can opt out now, which I don’t think was a choice then.
As we have seen lately, having Hordichuk or Eager, Sutton (whom I believe is feared, I’ve seen the heads turn away from him in scrums enough) has made no difference in abuse to the youth.
The player has to establish himself as someone not to trifle with. Old school, Messier style. RNH will never be able to fight anyone but Wellwood, but if he or whomever pays back at a later date and is cruel enough, the number of guys who want to take a hack will go down, not away, but down. Even Datsyuk punched someone out last season.
Or better yet, do it Gretzky style, and if you abuse an Oiler skilled player he gets pissed off and becomes an unstoppable force that scores 20 points on you in the next 5 times you play him.
Basically players either choose to take it and turn the other cheek, or they have be willing to find a way to defend themselves. I previously liked a fight, unless our guy lost, yet know I find the whole matter unworthy of the game today, but the NHL is not a league to embrace fairness of intelligence it seems. Or caring about making the sport appealing to anyone other than we hardcores blind to the violence.
Woodguy,
I’m probably not expressing myself clearly. Their Corsi Rel tells you explicitly that they’ve got the best Corsi ratio on the team, but given the huge number, I think it would be reasonable to infer that they’re probably right near the top of the league by the raw numbers as well. When we look at forwards with at least 10 GP, every other forward with a Corsi Rel of +20 or better is among the league’s top fifty by raw Corsi. The three exceptions are the three Oilers. Thus, omitting the raw numbers might create a false impression that this group is more dominant than they’ve actually shown.
Ha…just came to post the same thing-couldn’t have said it better myself. 7-4 final.
Looks like I was pushing for John Moore in that MPS draft thread. I didn’t think MPS would be available either. So which guy would I rather see on the Oilers now? Both guys have their flaws but MPS has more physical tools that might help him find a niche easier. I guess we’ll see.
Scarlett Kent
http://i3.squidoocdn.com/resize/squidoo_images/590/draft_lens19051786module156330332photo_1326464881scarlet.png
Little surprised at the lambasting of Cooke in here, though I guess I shouldn’t be. I hate the player (though i do give him credit for changing his game — and he has) but it wasn’t a dirty play that led to the Karlsson injury — it was a pure hockey play that occurs dozens of times in any one game. Just shitty luck.
More surprising is the fact no one pointed out that the fault is actually on the refs; the puck hit the netting earlier in the play (and both teams acknowledged it, with several literally pointing to the netting) but no whistle — and then shortly thereafter you get the injury.
Reffing cost the Senators their best player, and to a very serious injury at that. Gone for the season at least, I think.
Chimera is a great example.
Here is Chimera’s 21 year old hockey year (same as Magnus this year)
2000-01 Edmonton Oilers NHL 1 0 0 0 0 0
2000-01 Hamilton Bulldogs AHL 78 29 25 54 93 -14
Here’s MPS’s year so far:
2012-13 Oklahoma City Barons* AHL 38 4 16 20 10 -8
2012-13 Edmonton Oilers NHL 10 1 0 1 2 -3
Looking at that you’d think that MPS is tracking where Chimera did, although Chimera looks to have more offense.
The problem when we remember players like Chimera (who took a long time to figure it out) we remember them at their peak,not in the early years.
Lowetide,
I agree Colorado would be reluctant to trade in ther division, but realigment is coming and they have shown they are fine trading in their conference (see St. Louis).
So, what would be an overpay for O”reilly? Would Hemsky and Lander be an overpay? Gagner and Musil? MPS, Lander and Jones? Our 2013 1st rounder?
There is no prospect in the Oilers system I woudlnt trade for o’reilly. Captian material. Ackowledged as the hardest working player on the Avs. Skill at both ends of the ice. Tough minutes player.
In the 2012 draft, Tambo came way up the board to take Mitchell Moroz with the 2nd pick in the second round based on the clubs need for a big rugged winger who can play. I wonder what they were looking at in the 2009 draft when they ignored Zach Kassian who went just three spots later at 13? That wouldn’t even have been considered a reach pick the way Moroz was a reach. It baffles me. How do you get a power forward who can play? You draft them when they are there for you in the first round. Unfortunately, once again, the Oilers scouts and management were fooled by speed.
I’ve been liking Paajarvi’s games lately. Still needs to use his size more. Word on the play ground is he is likely to be benched for the next game. I don’t see anything wrong with that. Hell, I think it’s a nice luxury for the team to have.
Matt Cooke, huh? I agree with most everyone, but I think it was careless. The game does happen real fast, though. Pitch fork has been put back in the shed.
Nothing like a good ole pitch forking mob. Anyhoo.
Arm chair thought of the day: Ryan Whitney to Ottawa for Mark Stone. Stone, 6’3″, 200 lbs and 20 yrs old. Only one knock on him. He plays a Penner syndrome like game. No balls. But, he’s young.
Nice to see the Oil put on their hard hats and bring their lunch pails to work the other day.