CANUCKS AT OILERS G34 (12-13) 30.3.13

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins took his time joining the offensive parade this season, but a recent flurry (1-8-9 in his last 10gp) has the Nuge back in black and looking good. Should the Oilers be looking to add at the deadline? How far behind expectations are they currently?


Before the season began, I posted an updated ‘reasonable expectation’ for team goals for and against.

2012-13 PROJECTION (48 GAMES)

  • TOTAL GOALS FOR: 131
  • TOTAL GOALS AGAINST: 138 (including 7 EN goals)
  • GOALS PER GAME AVERAGE: 2.73 (2.52 last season)
  • GOALS AGAINST PER GAME AVERAGE: 2.88 (2.83 last season)

Now, the totals above are pure GF-GA, I take them from nhl.com and they are the pure numbers. If you go to tsn, you’ll see 83-95 GF/GA (-12) for the Oilers in 33gp, but that isn’t the real number.

2012-13 ACTUAL (33 GAMES)

  • TOTAL GOALS FOR: 81
  • TOTAL GOALS AGAINST: 92
  • GOALS PER GAME AVERAGE: 2.45 (2.52 last season)
  • GOALS AGAINST PER GAME AVERAGE: 2.79 (2.83 last season)

I projected the Oilers to be -7 over 48 games, they are -11 over 33 games. Certainly well within the range of expectation, and of course that number can improve if the team doesn’t sell at the deadline and add prospects and picks who can’t help the big club during April. Interesting to see that the offense and defense are almost identical to one year ago. Why? Well, as much as the top half of the roster is helping, the bottom half is hurting. If they can stay healthy, I think this team could be better than -7 by season’s end. It’s really encouraging. Seriously.

I think the playoffs are probably gone, but getting this GF-GA number closer to do is a big deal.

On the other hand, important indicators like Fenwick Close tells us there’s still plenty of work to do this summer. What needs to happen? Well, depending on the names of those who survive the week and are signed to new deals (hello, Laddy!) we might start the summer with this:

  • Goal: Devan Dubnyk, Ben Bishop or similar
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid-Jeff Petry; Capable top 4D-Justin Schultz; Oscar Klefbom-Nick Schultz; Corey Potter
  • Line 1: Nuge-Hall-Eberle
  • Line 2: Gagner-Paajarvi-Yakupov
  • Line 3: Horcoff-Hartikainen-Hemsky
  • Line 4: Jim Dowd-Boyd Devereaux-George Laraque from 1999
  • Extras: L Ryan Smyth, R Mike Brown

One feature player (the blue), one guy who might cost a top 100 pick (goalie) and then three guys a normal NHL team can cobble together on day 12 of free agency.


The trade deadline is close now, we know a few things:

  • The Oilers are talking contract with Ladislav Smid.
  • smid contractJay Bouwmeester is available and makes sense for the Oilers. Do the Oilers make sense for Jay Bouwmeester?
  • Lubo is signed now, Streit may be next and the free agent pool for D this summer is decidedly poor.
  • Ales Hemsky rumors are beginning to build–not as strong as one year ago but there are rumblings.
  • Ryan Jones may be getting some interest.

Big test for the Oilers tonight. Smid-Petry and the Schultz boys are going to be busy, and coach Krueger is going to have to line match–simple as that. I don’t think the club’s chances of winning are close to 50%, would guess they’ll have to play their best game of the season to win. The good news is that if they can win, or gain one point, the two games against the Flames this coming week may help them sustain a point streak.

I think the Oilers are starting to find the range offensively, but the defensive mistakes that cost goals continue. That’s an issue that will have to be addressed by trade or free agency, defensemen who don’t make a lot of mistakes are dear.

I’m hopeful the Oilers come back with Devan Dubnyk tonight, he’s having a fine season. Goaltending isn’t the problem.

One of these days, Taylor Hall is going to score a bunch of points to put this scoring race to bed. Maybe tonight? He’s 4-8-12 in his last 9 games and is (as always) a chance machine.

hemsky22I don’t want anyone who reads this blog to feel sorry for the Calgary Flames. They are the enemy. This tweet from the hockey club reflects an arrogance unearned, and things like Craig Conroy’s comments on Shawn Horcoff years ago and the Regehr damage over many years should never be forgotten. I know the opponent is Vancouver tonight, but I’m working up a good lather for the back to back against Calgary this coming week.

-

I think the Oilers trade Ryan Whitney, and could deal Fistric too. Peckham needs a new home. However, I think this might be the time to offload Nick Schultz. Thoughts?

Lowetide at High Noon hits Team 1260 today at noon Edmonton time. It’ll be archived right after the show (courtesy producer Conner Halley) and I hope you can tune in using whatever listening device you prefer. Scheduled to appear:

  • Elliotte Friedman from HNIC. Elliotte’s 30 thoughts are a weekly stop for the nation, and his use on network television of terms like “Corsi” may cause a revolution.
  • Evan Daum from the EJ and Golden Bears hockey and football. We’ll talk about the Oil Kings series victory last night and the upstart Medicine Hat Tigers (that’s the next opponent for the OK).
  • Tom Lynn, player agent for Veritas hockey. Tom will discuss the DeKeyser signing and other college free agents who may be available, the Hobey Baker nominees and the upcoming draft.
  • Gene Principe from Rogers Sportsnet. We’ll talk about the trade deadline and the life of a broadcaster who spends so much time with the team on a day when one or more may be sent away. I’m hoping for a pun or two, but won’t push it.
  • Kirk Luedeke from Redline Report. We’ll talk Iginla to Boston and what happened, we’ll talk draft and I’ll ask about new Oiler prospect Kale Kessy–Kirk had some great info on him before the 2011 draft.
  • Rob Soria from Oil Drop. I’ll ask Rob about the deadline and what the Oilers should do over the summer to take that “next step.”

Questions and comments welcome, I’ll tell you as I get closer to the show time the best way to reach me is twitter @Lowetide_

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349 Responses to "CANUCKS AT OILERS G34 (12-13) 30.3.13"

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  1. Woodguy says:

    Should the Oilers be looking to add at the deadline? How far behind expectations are they currently?

    No.

    They should still offload Whitney regardless of where they are in the standings.

    SJS, who are playoff bound, offloaded Cement Footed Turnstile Murray for a ridiculous 2 2nd rounders from PIT.

    Murray was by far their worst D in terms of Corsi and doesn’t have the mobility to be effective at the NHL level anymore.

    Whitney is by far the Oilers worst D in terms of Corsi and doesn’t have the mobility to be effective at the NHL level anymore.

    Whitney brings offence as well so hopefully they get a good deal.

    Funny, SJS hasn’t lost since they traded Murray.

    Fistric can hold down the fort at 3LD and spell in Peckham if they don’t trade him. (they should)

    How far behind expectations are they currently?

    If they filled the holes we all saw in the summer they’d be in the mix in 7-9. They are not. No use making stop gaps now.

  2. Woodguy says:

    As far the the Fenclose goes, 91-89-83 seem to have turned a corner and are getting much better.

    If the top two lines outshoot, then most of the problem is solved.

    Despite scoring lots x-89-83 was getting killed in possession metrics for most of the year.

    91 becoming a man has certainly helped, but by eye 89 and 83 are doing more as well.

    Ireland has a nice piece on Paajarvi here:

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Great+attitude+helped+Oilers+Paajarvi/8171586/story.html

    One thing that won’t work to help Fenclose is:

    Blackhole Jones – Horcoff – Insane Rookie taking on the toughs.

    28-10-64 were destroyed last game by Anisimov, Atkinson and Calvert.

    MIke Parkatti has the goods on that here: http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/03/29/game-notes-oilersjackets-mar-28/

    I don’t see it getting better if they take on Pisscutter-Pisscutter-Burrows tonight.

    I fear it substantially.

    RK said he liked what 13-94-37 brought as a 4th line.

    I kinda agree, but it leaves poor Shawn trudging up hill carrying one lead weight and one concrete.

    94-10-64 would be a huge improvement because 94 knows how to play D.

    28 and 64 are chaos in their own end and 28 cheats for offense worse than Pat Kane.

    I think they need to bring up Lander and put him at 4C and 94 at 3LW

    4th can be 13-5737/28.

  3. Lowetide says:

    WG: Surely it’s time for Horcoff to earn that damn money. :-)

  4. Ducey says:

    Woodguy,

    Agree with Woodguy. I seem to be doing that a lot lately. One of us is off his rocker.

    Sell, sell, sell. This team is not making the playoffs.

    Seeing a bunch of pricks running around from Vancouver will remind everyone why the Oilers traded for Kessy.

    Have we figured out whether Kessy has another yr of junior yet? It would appear he is 20.

  5. maudite says:

    They are pretty much where I thought they would be. I had them pegged at 12th in the West unless moves were made. They might actually beat that. While I hate the idea of not trying to hold out hope, from a future and management perspective, it makes no sense to do anything, at this point, but ship out some of the bodies. I’d have a hard time seeing a fire sale. I would hate to see it as an obvious throw in the towel already…sends a bad message to the future of this team to not still try to make the miracle 8th place happen. I have them separated into a few tiers though:

    Jones
    Khabi
    Whitney

    -> Addition by subtraction for the most part. I don’t think much is lost by replacing these from within. If you can get anything, it would make no sense not to.

    Fistric
    Belanger
    Peckham
    Shultz

    -> Given our center depth, there is still some value to keeping Belanger here sadly. Not much, but I would definitely be hoping to get more than a bag of pucks. Fistric might garner you a decent enough return to warrant shipping away. Same with Shultz but it would have to be getting a return on the higher range as our depth would be brutal without him and likely too weak to even have a chance at making a hail mary run.

    Hemmer

    -> Wouldn’t be going anywhere without some serious things coming back our way. I’m doubtful they could get a return proportional to the value he has on this team though.

  6. maudite says:

    Given cap issues next season, I honestly think a savy GM could paste together an alright interm defense on 1 yr overpays. While the UFA pool has no big names, there are enough serviceable D man and not a lot of teams with cap space, financial backing to pay out to them.

  7. Woodguy says:

    I think the Oilers trade Ryan Whitney, and could deal Fistric too. Peckham needs a new home. However, I think this might be the time to offload Nick Schultz. Thoughts?

    Dealing all 4 LHD?

    Tell us how you really feel about them LT.

    I can see them dealing 2.

    Shultz stays, he has an “A” and a year left.

    Hope they sign Smid.

    The rest can go.

    I spent a couple hours looking at Bouwmeester.

    The fancystats hate him. Here’s (very briefly) why I think that.

    In the last two years, his D partners are consistently better without him than with him (all of this is in term of shooting attempts that are adjusted for zone starts)

    I (and others) thought this might be due to his playing partners not facing as tough of comp when not playing with him.

    Turns out to be the opposite.

    I looked at a bunch of games uses Vic’s H2H app. (thanks for getting it going again Vic!)

    Here are the permutations of CAL’s top 4.

    Bouw plays toughs with Gio
    Bouw plays 2nd toughs with Brodie
    Gio plays toughs with Wideman
    Brodie plays 2nd toughs with Wideman

    Gio is playing toughs all the time and actually keeping his head above water.

    The fans have turned on him there for some reason and if I was targeting a CAL Dman, it would be him.

    Probably doesn’t help that Bouw, Gio and Brodi are all left shots, and I think Gio and Brodie play RD when with Bou. That’s a real bitch in the D zone. Your fore hand passes are going to wrong way when facing the wall. Tough spot.

    One thing that doesn’t happen often is Bouw playing toughs with a true RHD. Only Wideman fits that bill on CAL and they have only played 42 minutes together (with dismal results), so he may improve on a proper pairing.

    Last year Bouw mostly played with Butler and Sarich, both of whom play 3rd this year.

    It was true last year that when either played away from Bouw their ice got easier, but this year its not true. Both were better without Bouw.

    Small sample to judge (532Min total TOI), but its starting to paint a picture that isn’t pretty.

    I was pumping Bouw to be an Oiler earlier this year after he was instrumental in CAL’s defeat of EDM, but now, not so much.

  8. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: Surely it’s time for Horcoff to earn that damn money.

    Exactly.

    Floating around with 4 and 83 is like a vacation.

  9. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Woodguy,

    Agree with Woodguy. I seem to be doing that a lot lately.One of us is off his rocker.

    Sell, sell, sell.This team is not making the playoffs.

    Seeing a bunch of pricks running around from Vancouver will remind everyone why the Oilers traded for Kessy.

    Have we figured out whether Kessy has another yr of junior yet?It would appear he is 20.

    The scales are falling from your eyes on this road to Damascus, that’s all…. :)

    LT figured out that this is both Rieder’s and Kessy’s 19 year old year.

  10. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy,

    If the top two lines outshoot, then most of the problem is solved.

    This is too simplistic and I want to clarify.

    The biggest part of the fenclose problem is inability to possess the puck from Dzone through Neutral Zone to Ozone.

    They need D who can make a first pass as well to get to the point of out shooting.

    They currently have Petry and J.Shultz and Whitney has come around, but gives up too much the other way.

    They have 2. They need at least 5.

  11. Woodguy says:

    maudite,

    Jones
    Khabi
    Whitney
    -> Addition by subtraction for the most part. I don’t think much is lost by replacing these from within. If you can get anything, it would make no sense not to.

    Nailed it.

    Oilers get better the second any of those players no longer put on the jersey.

    Khabby had his good first 6 games and 20 games on the IR, time to unload.

  12. maudite says:

    Watched the Calgary game last night. Might be because I was looking for him but Jbow looked brutal all night. Not much can be taken from that, I know, but I think I would likely put him in the Jack Johnson tree of defenseman:

    High prospect
    Great Physical tools
    Average to below average actual hockey sense.

  13. SK Oiler Fan says:

    No to adding at the deadline. Some of the selling that needs to happen will be addition by subtraction.
    The Oilers deadline was when Horc went down and holes were filled with VDV and Arcobello. It’s too late now, the damage is done. Just no forward thinking at all in this Org. Btw, that D lineup means no playoffs again.
    Actually I think I’ve figured out The Tanbolowe strategy. Since the joint is sold out everynight regardless of performance, hovering around 9th to 12th in the conference allows the most flexibility at the deadline. They can sell, stay pat, or add at the deadline and anyone can spin it as the logical decision. It’s very easy to tank if necessary and in case you want to go out on a limb you should know where you need to improve by the deadline. As well, it’s easy to say prices were too high, we weren’t willing to sacrifice the future-stand pat. It’s the delaying decisions until the decision is made for you management strategy. Why tie yourself to a plan in the offseason? Brilliant!

  14. Woodguy says:

    Scott Oake ‏@ScottOake 2m
    Oilers’ coach Ralph Krueger on Aft Hrs tonight. He is hockey’s most interesting man. Let’s have your questions. #HockeyNight

    That’s going to be worth watching for sure.

  15. spoiler says:

    If the Top 6 had scored 10 more or prevented 10 less, or any combo thereof, I think we’d be talking playoffs a little more seriously.

    Gagner still exits early, like a former Pat Kane linemate, but has been coming back deeper it seems since Horc returned. Their record in Horcoff games has been playoff worthy. Can’t remember it exactly, but it is something like 9-4-4.

    I still don’t think the Fs come back deep enough or stay in the zone long enough to support the D moving the puck up. One guy leaves so fast so often, that I have to believe playing for the stretch pass is part of the coaching strategy. They are almost relentless at doing it.

    The Oil could really use 3 wins on the trot to position themselves well for the race. Out of their cluster, there the team with the best chance at it because of having the least games played. But still have to make those games count. Calgary will be dangerous for us because there will be a tendency to take them lighter now and that team is still going to pay for pride.

    J-Bo makes ZERO SENSE in a trade. He would be a useful player, but for the Flames to make him an Oiler we would have to pay massively beyond what everyone else in the league is willing to do. The trade, if it even could be done, would require a horrible overpay.

    We have too many bodies, so someone must be headed out at the deadline. Ideally it looks like this:

    Whitney for two 2nds
    Peckham for 3rd
    Jones for a prospect
    Khabby for a 3rd

    That’s some nice bullets. I worry though, that if they win tonight they won’t trade Khabby even with an offer on the table. I think they should send him to Coyotes or Lightning for a faretheewell.

    If we’re going blockbuster, I would like another deal with Phoenix. Something like…

    Khabby, Jones, Whitney, Gernat, 2014 1st, ANA 2nd

    For

    Smith rental, Yandle, Samuelsson

    Lol. Extend Smith, Gagner, MPS, Smid.

  16. Mr DeBakey says:

    “Gio is playing toughs all the time and actually keeping his head above water. The fans have turned on him there for some reason and if I was targeting a CAL Dman, it would be him.”

    Ding Ding Ding!
    This is the other half of the Hemsky-to-Boston-for-two-high-picks-trade
    floated by Asiaoil [I think] the other day.
    Get ‘er done.

  17. GordM says:

    Was at the last Canuck game when we lost Horcoff mid-way through and didn’t have Belanger. I recall the Canucks modified their dump-and-chase into shoot-on-net-drive-hard-force-Dubnyk-to-free-puck-win-ensuing-faceoff in order to easily gain possession in our zone. We were lucky to escape with a point that night.

    I wish there was some way for Oilers fans to have an official retraction over those idiots who booed Horc at the opener. Don’t get me wrong…I’ve never been a fan of the contract but to think we are better off without him…sheesh.

  18. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    I still don’t think the Fs come back deep enough or stay in the zone long enough to support the D moving the puck up. One guy leaves so fast so often, that I have to believe playing for the stretch pass is part of the coaching strategy. They are almost relentless at doing it.

    The Oiler wings do fly the zone by design to stretch the D and open up the middle of the ice for a break out.

    The problems occur when:

    -the C flies too and there is no easy first pass for the D
    -both wings take off instead of one high and one medium and C low
    -they fly before possession is actually established and the just create odd man situations by not being where they should be (hello Ryan Jones)

    4-93-14 run the break out best. Watch 93 stay low to give an easy first pass to the D, 4 be the medium guy to give 93 an easy option, and 14 tear up the wall to stretch the D.

    4 and 14 will switch spots depending on where the puck is coming out, but they work best when 4 is carrying the puck in the neutral zone and he’ll come over for 93′s first pass option even on the right side.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: The scales are falling from your eyes on this road to Damascus, that’s all…. :)

    LT figured out that this is both Rieder’s and Kessy’s 19 year old year.

    Actually, LT was wrong. Kessy is a 1992, so this is his last year. Rieder, born 37 days later but a 1993, is eligible for one more junior season.

    At least that was the info I was given last night from a trusted source.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Excellent line up today LT.

    Nice one getting ET.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Actually, LT was wrong. Kessy is a 1992, so this is his last year. Rieder, born 37 days later but a 1993, is eligible for one more junior season.

    At least that was the info I was given last night from a trusted source.

    Trade looks worse then.

    Still much ado about nothing imo.

    I wonder if Rieder told them he wasn’t going to sign.

    PHX is certainly the right spot for him to land.

    Seems to hold some water.

  22. steveb12344 says:

    Kessey’s first round of playoffs this year: 4gp 4-2-6.

    Small sample, I know. There is something to be said for a player who can elevate his game come playoff time. Just sayin….

  23. Lowetide says:

    For me, the Rieder trade is a lot like Nash in 2010. Player didn’t feel he could make a dent, probably better off elsewhere. I don’t know that he wouldn’t have signed here, and am pretty sure the Oilers could have convinced him, but they also probably feel they’re full in terms of undersized forwards.

  24. dangilitis says:

    Kaberle on waivers. I know the fact that he has been rendered expendable (as well as his age and the extra year on his contract) by the Canadiens is not exactly a ringing endorsement. They also have a great D-core, and while by their standards he is mediocre (as well as my standards), as a LHD I would place him 2 or 3 on the Oilers roster. He brings offense and experience, and the cap hit would likely be wasted in free agency chasing a D-man with far less talent. They could sign Smid, have him, and re-sign Gagner and still have enough to stay under the cap. If they went for it, I would have mixed feelings. But it could make way for a Whitney trade.

  25. edwards_daddy says:

    I think penciling in Klefbom on the 5-6D pairing is wrong. The kid won’t be able to play 82 games – he’s only played 67 in the past 3 years! I think he’s going to need a AHL season under his belt.

  26. steveb12344 says:

    Ya know, I love this blog. LT is my favorite Oiler blogger, and the commenters here are generally among the more intelligent in the blogosphere.

    That said though, why all the freaking negativity?

    The Oilers are in a playoff race for the first time in 4 years, and most of you are tripping over yourselves to declare them out of it.

    I get that the chances are slim, but until they are pretty much mathematically eliminated, I will continue to cheer for them and get excited for the games.

    I think they need to win 3 of these next 4 to keep it going. Split with Van, and sweep the Flames and we’re right there.

    The standings from 6th-12th are pretty much still up for grabs, and a win, or loss streak from any of these teams can change things in a hurry.

    In relation to games back, or ahead of 8th place. Today it looks like this.

    6th: Det +1

    7th: SJ +1

    8th: SL E

    9th: Dal -.5

    10th: Nsh -1.5

    11th: Edm -1.5

    12th: Cbs -1.5

    I think right now these are the 7 teams fighting for 3 spots, and while The Oil are obviously still a bit of a longshot, with 15 games remaining, alot can still happen.

    Dallas has already been selling off thier best players, Cbs is,well Cbs. Nsh has been struggling terribly. St.L has also looked a little weak lately, and even SJ, and Det have shown they are not above an ill-timed losing streak.

    This thing is going down to the wire folks, and I, for one intend to enjoy it as long as i can.

    Goooo Oilers!!

  27. Lowetide says:

    Steve12344: Ha! Agreed. I think the Oilers should be adding this week! Sign Smid, trade for help on the wing. Seriously.

  28. godot10 says:

    I think Bouwmeester’s effectiveness is more coach dependent than many defensemen.

    I think Hitchcock (or Babcock) would use him 25 minutes a night. St. Louis is the ideal place for Bouwmeester because Pieterangelo and Shattenkirk would hog all the attention, and his lack of physicality wouldn’t matter on that team. JayBo could just play.

    One would think Bouwmeester would only waive his no trade to go to a playoff team. He would have to believe in the Oiler rebuild to be willing to come here.

  29. steveb12344 says:

    Lowetide,

    They MUST find a way to sign Smid! The guy is a warrior and from the looks of things from the Oil change episodes he has become a leader in the dressing room and seems to be keeping his teammates accountable.

    Pay that man his money, and next year put an A on his chest. Guys like that are much more valuable than thier stat-line might suggest.

  30. asiaoil says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    “Gio is playing toughs all the time and actually keeping his head above water. The fans have turned on him there for some reason and if I was targeting a CAL Dman, it would be him.”

    Ding Ding Ding!
    This is the other half of the Hemsky-to-Boston-for-two-high-picks-trade
    floated by Asiaoil [I think] the other day.
    Get ‘er done.

    Yes we need to both buy and sell this year to get a head start on actually composing a balanced roster over the summer. We need to get a couple of deals done before the deadline to load up with more picks to use on deadline day. If we can somehow get a low first and a 2nd without dealing Hemsky then we should have plenty of assets to get the dman we need. Problem is II don’t think any combination of Whitney, Khabbi, Jones,Peckham, Tueburt, Plante and Fedun gets us what we need – probably need to throw elder Schulz onto the pile. While It’s not be absolutely critical to make the playoffs but there must be a strong finish to create optimism for next year if we are going to do anything with UFA’s alter this summer.

    The dman is the big ticket item and I’d still be willing to take JayBo for a full season test drive if the price was not too dear – say BOS 1st, ANA 2nd and Teuburt.

  31. Lowetide says:

    steveb12344:
    Lowetide,

    They MUST find a way to sign Smid! The guy is a warrior and from the looks of things from the Oil change episodes he has become a leader in the dressing room and seems to be keeping his teammates accountable.

    Pay that man his money, and next year put an A on his chest. Guys like that are much more valuable than thier stat-line might suggest.

    I think they will get Smid signed by the deadline. The fact is that most of the good ufa’s to be are now signed, and despite his limitations the Oilers are YEARS from being good enough to say Smid can’t play inside their top 4D.

    YEARS!

  32. dessert1111 says:

    The Oilers are in an interesting position at the trade deadline this year. That said, getting rid of Whitney, Khabby and one of Peckham or Fistric I don’t think will hurt their playoff chances. Is Fedun being their 7 D for a dozen games going to give them a worse chance of winning? Whitney has offense, but is inconsistent and his defensive game is normally very poor. Playing Khabby is like playing russian roulette. Is there a good college goalie they can sign? If they can get something for Petrell I’d trade him too.

    For the guys with a year left, is now the ideal time to trade them? I’m think Hemsky, N Schultz, Eager, Belanger and Brown. Can they turn Hemsky and N Schultz into a younger, better LH top 4 D? Can they turn Belanger and Whitney for a young 3C who can play with skill?

    Deadline seems more likely to be the place for offloading UFAs they don’t want to resign, though they traded Penner with a year left on his contract, so it could happen.

  33. FastOil says:

    “and his use on network television of terms like “Corsi” may cause a revolution”

    I wonder if Vic Ferrari finds this gratifying – I think he should.

    ” an arrogance unearned”

    My young family is away visiting so I without fail or thinking take on some project easier to do without the hooligans wanting “to help” ;)

    I streamed the NHL channel and they had the Flames and Jackets. The host had a Calgary reporter on and of course they were talking Iginla. The host was asking if fans would think Feaster was robbed, the reporter began going on about how “knowledgeable” Calgary fans were. They would understand Feaster had his back to the wall and it would be a few years until they see the playoffs again.

    The host mentioned the Oiler rebuild and she said it was a “different market”. They agreed fans were different in Edmonton which seemed to imply that Oiler fans were not of the same ilk as Flames fans, wouldn’t have the same reaction, I suppose because we are less “knowledgeable”.

    I suppose there are two ways to deal with always being a step behind your main rival, and never reaching the same heights, over the course of decades. Become bitter, or enter into a state of deluded arrogance. As the saying does, tall hat, no cattle.

    Welcome to lottery land Flames and wise supporters. You’re making it hard not to gloat at your impending slide into the hockey abyss, barren team and system and all. Please call Tambellini if you need any advice.

  34. steveb12344 says:

    FastOil,

    “Please call Tambellini if you need any advice.”

    Ouch!….. :)

  35. striatic says:

    watching Iginla play in the Pens’ system is interesting, in that it exposes a lot of bad habits learned by playing in the Flames’ system.

  36. FPB94 says:

    It’s a seller’s market for defensemen, time to cash in.

    One trade i’l always remember is when the Canadiens fleeced the San Jose Sharks, trading an aging sucking Craig Rivet for future captain Josh Gorges and a 1st round pick (Which would to top it off become Max Pacioretty)

    As for Kessey i’m meh on him. Another dude who can’t score or play actual hockey (like Moroz, Ewanyk) now we got 3. At least Tobias had some bottom 6 potential, these guys just look like Pylon who’l go suck in the minors like Cam Abney,

    On another note:

    Toni Rajala? The kid’s got 31 points in 33 games in OKC! Very impressive turnaround after he began the season in Stockton. Exactly the kind of guys the Oilers need to have in their bottom 6; guys who actually played well in the AHL and deserve a callup, not because there was nobody else to go up.

  37. jake70 says:

    Ahh LT, dipping (or peaking up) into the 80s for some music reference….good man. Think last one was Voices Carry by that “Tuesday” singer. I have that Galaxy 80s channel on right now …don’t ban me..haha. (think I was a long haired synthesizer player with makeup in another life…long live the keyboard…lol).

    “That said though, why all the freaking negativity?
    The Oilers are in a playoff race for the first time in 4 years, and most of you are tripping over yourselves to declare them out of it.”

    My concern is best expressed in the fear that when all the dust settles at season’s end, Oilers are 3 points out, and a guy like Paajarvi is in another city playing, having been traded at the deadline to make a push this year. But yeah, playoffs….bringem on!

  38. godot10 says:

    FPB94:

    On another note:

    Toni Rajala? The kid’s got 31 points in 33 games in OKC! Very impressive turnaround after he began the season in Stockton. Exactly the kind of guys the Oilers need to have in their bottom 6; guys who actually played well in the AHL and deserve a callup, not because there was nobody else to go up.

    Rajala and Cornet only began the season in Stockton because of the NHL lockout, which forced Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberte, Hartikainen, and Paajarvi to the AHL.

  39. justDOit says:

    The Payolas were an underrated band, with a very cool name. ‘Eyes of a Stranger’ and ‘Hammer on a Drum’ are still on my iPod.

  40. justDOit says:

    Lowetide,

    When is Friedman scheduled in your show? I can’t listen to the entire broadcast this aft, but hope to be able to make time for his segment between chores.

  41. godot10 says:

    Danger Will Robinson Danger!

    Paul Martin out six weeks in Pittsburgh.

    Can the Oilers pry Olli Maatta or Scott Harrington out of PIttsburgh for Smid?

  42. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10,

    Nick Schultz might look good in a Penguins uni.

  43. Lowetide says:

    justDOit:

    Lowetide,

    When is Friedman scheduled in your show? I can’t listen to the entire broadcast this aft, but hope to be able to make time for his segment between chores.

    about 5 past noon Edmonton time.

  44. justDOit says:

    Lowetide,

    Thx! I’ll be listening to the show in it’s entirety later, but didn’t want to miss EF live. Always a fresh perspective from that man.

  45. Woodguy says:

    From: @EdmontonOilers
    Sent: Mar 30, 2013 11:24a

    Coach Krueger confirms #Oilers lineup stays the same: 4-93-14, 91-89-83, 28-10-64, 37-94-13, 5-2, 15-19, 44-6 plus Dubnyk in net

    sent via Twitter for BlackBerry®
    On Twitter: http://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/318051162974720001

    Looks like 10 will get his head kicked in today.

  46. steveb12344 says:

    jake70: Ahh LT, dipping (or peaking up) into the 80s for some music reference….good man. Think last one was Voices Carry by that “Tuesday” singer. I have that Galaxy 80s channel on right now …don’t ban me..haha. (think I was a long haired synthesizer player with makeup in another life…long live the keyboard…lol). “That said though, why all the freaking negativity?The Oilers are in a playoff race for the first time in 4 years, and most of you are tripping over yourselves to declare them out of it.”My concern is best expressed in the fear that when all the dust settles at season’s end, Oilers are 3 points out, and a guy like Paajarvi is in another city playing, having been traded at the deadline to make a push this year. But yeah, playoffs….bringem on!

    MPS isn’t going anywhere, unless he is part of a package for the mythical “Wow” deal to bring back a quality top pairing Dman, or the “Lucic” they’ve been looking for.

    Other than that MPS has easily been one of the best Oilers these last 8-10 games, and seems to be finally developing into EXACTLY what they need him to be. If he continues playing and developing like his recent play suggests, than there is definately a place for him in the Oilers core long-term.

  47. 42 percent body fat says:

    @Lowetide,

    LT you as well as Gregor over at oilersnation missed that tonight is Gagners 400th game.

  48. jp says:

    spoiler:

    Whitney for two 2nds
    Peckham for 3rd
    Jones for a prospect
    Khabby for a 3rd

    I think dumping those guys with that return would make me happier than the Oilers making the playoffs this season. Unfortunately neither of those things is likely to happen.

  49. FPB94 says:

    Tomas Kaberle on waivers; Oilers should pick him up. I like Therrien but the only thing wrong i’ve seen on Kaberle is his sideburns.

    On another note, Patrik Elias may be immortal.

  50. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    spoiler,

    I still don’t think the Fs come back deep enough or stay in the zone long enough to support the D moving the puck up. One guy leaves so fast so often, that I have to believe playing for the stretch pass is part of the coaching strategy. They are almost relentless at doing it.

    The Oiler wings do fly the zone by design to stretch the D and open up the middle of the ice for a break out.

    The problems occur when:

    -the C flies too and there is no easy first pass for the D
    -both wings take off instead of one high and one medium and C low
    -they fly before possession is actually established and the just create odd man situations by not being where they should be (hello Ryan Jones)

    4-93-14 run the break out best.Watch 93 stay low to give an easy first pass to the D, 4 be the medium guy to give 93 an easy option, and 14 tear up the wall to stretch the D.

    4 and 14 will switch spots depending on where the puck is coming out, but they work best when 4 is carrying the puck in the neutral zone and he’ll come over for 93′s first pass option even on the right side.

    I see the same thing. Very first 91-89-64 shift last game, Yak flies the zone and then all of a sudden Gags goes too, we don’t have possession established, CBJ stuffs the breakout at the right face off dot and boom they have the puck back deep again except this time we only have 3 defenders and one of them is on the far side of the ice.

    And this is when we were already down a bloody goal.

    And yet other times everyone came back and they rushed the puck up as a regular threesome.

  51. spoiler says:

    jp: I think dumping those guys with that return would make me happier than the Oilers making the playoffs this season. Unfortunately neither of those things is likely to happen.

    Yeah, like I said ideally. But if they can even approximate that, I will be pretty happy.

  52. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: ery first 91-89-64 shift last game, Y

    Must have been 83, 64 was with 28-10 last game.

    One winger is supposed to fly the zone, but too often its like a jail break, but without the puck.

  53. Captain Obvious says:

    Kaberle is Whitney with a worse contract.

    His adjusted +/- last year vs. replacement level was +7 (+3 ES, +1 SH, +3 PP) which is decidedly below average. Comparable players last year on per minute basis with similar playing time:

    Tyler Myers (+6 (+3, 0, +3)
    Jack Johnson +8 (+5, 0, +3)
    Sheldon Souray +6 (+4, 0, +2)
    Marco Scandella +5 (+2, 0, +3)
    Ryan Whitney +7 (+1, +1, +5)

  54. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    I thought you had Smid traded to Detroit? :)

  55. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    The trade for Murray will be the benchmark by which Tambo will be judged in his return for Whitney. You can make a case that Whitney can at least help someone on the PP.

    The ball is in Tambos court….

  56. WeridAl says:

    LT what are you smoking to believe the Oilers have a chance to make the playoffs, by chance have you looked at the schedule. Of the next 15 games, 10 are against some very tough teams. Your also seem to have a very short memory, have you forgotten that the Oilers were the joke of the League and no one wanted to come here, unless you overpaid them aka Bleanger and Eager. Real wishful thinking that anyone of value would of signed with the Oilers the last couple of years. Things might change this offseason, but it will still be tough to attract and player of any value until the Oilers are a bonafide playoff team or you can get Kevin Lowe stupid and highly overpay for someone.

  57. Captain Obvious says:

    By the numbers, Murray was much worse than the Whitney/Kaberle class of hockey players above. He was – 5, a below replacement level hockey player, and easily one of the worst regular Dmen in the league.

    That was an incredibly bad trade by Pittsburgh.

  58. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious:
    By the numbers, Murray was much worse than the Whitney/Kaberle class of hockey players above.He was – 5, a below replacement level hockey player, and easily one of the worst regular Dmen in the league.

    That was an incredibly bad trade by Pittsburgh.

    Can you walk me through your system and what you think it shows again please?

  59. Chris says:

    LT I’ve been meaning to say its been a real pleasure to have you back on the air on a Saturday afternoon.

    HNIC might have brainwashed me but I also wouldn’t mind picking up a free Tomas Kaberle.

  60. Derek says:

    Woodguy: Can you walk me through your system and what you think it shows again please?

    Please do, I noticed you talking about it a couple threads ago but I don’t think I grasped it fully.

    Re: Kaberle

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=MTL&f4=D&f7=&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    Sheltered minutes for sure with a 62.2 Zone start, but coming out well ahead of the competition. Not a world beater by any means but he beats the hell out of anyone not named Smid, Petry or Schultz.

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=MTL&f4=D&f7=&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    Last year shows the same easy competition, without the same push w/r/t zone starts and he’s in break even territory.

  61. HeavySig says:

    WeridAl:
    LT what are you smoking to believe the Oilers have a chance to make the playoffs, by chance have you looked at the schedule. Of the next 15 games, 10 are against some very tough teams. Your also seem to have a very short memory, have you forgotten that the Oilers were the joke of the League and no one wanted to come here, unless you overpaid them aka Bleanger and Eager. Real wishful thinking that anyone of value would of signed with the Oilers the last couple of years. Things might change this offseason, but it will still be tough to attract and player of any value until the Oilers are a bonafide playoff team or you can get Kevin Lowe stupid and highly overpay for someone.

    Justin Shultz ring any bells, Al? Pretty sure that a team or two wanted him just a little. He smelled playing time and points playing with the kids.

    Oh, and loved you in “Amish Paradise.”

    LT, when are we getting to see a classic Yankovic clips on this blog? Go outside the mainstream hits and maybe try; “The Biggest Ball of Twine in Minnesota.”

  62. steveb12344 says:

    WeridAl: LT what are you smoking to believe the Oilers have a chance to make the playoffs, by chance have you looked at the schedule. Of the next 15 games, 10 are against some very tough teams. Your also seem to have a very short memory, have you forgotten that the Oilers were the joke of the League and no one wanted to come here, unless you overpaid them aka Bleanger and Eager. Real wishful thinking that anyone of value would of signed with the Oilers the last couple of years. Things might change this offseason, but it will still be tough to attract and player of any value until the Oilers are a bonafide playoff team or you can get Kevin Lowe stupid and highly overpay for someone.

    Actually thats 5 games out of 15 (33%)against teams that are currently below us in the WC standings. Considering that only 3 of 15 (20%) of the teams are actually below us. Those are some pretty good odds in our favor.

    Also 9/15 games remaining are at home. They are 5-2-2 in the last 9 games since Horc came back, and have been playing some of thier best hockey of the year of late.

    At the start of the year most of you here were predicting the Oil would fall short of playoffs, and would be happy if they at least kept it close and played meaningful games down the stretch.

    Well that’s exactly where they’re sitting right now, and most of you here are still not happy.

    The point i’ve been trying to make is not the probability of making the top 8, or even whether they make the playoffs at all really. It’s the fact that they are in an honest to goodness playoff race, and the games are meaningful. Not just to us, but more importantly to the players.

    These kids need to feel the pressure of the situation, and learn how to overcome it. These games are far more valuable than a few extra spots up the draft order.

    Not sure why so many of you have such a hard time comprehending that there is a difference between being in 8th, and being in the race for 8th. This is by far the most The Oil have given us to be excited for since at least 2009. It’s a shame so many of you refuse to open your eyes and enjoy it!

  63. Lucinius says:

    Hmm. Well, Buffalo traded Jordan Leopold to St. Louis for a 2nd round pick and a conditional 5th round pick. It’ll be interesting to see what the Oilers get for Whitney should they move him.

  64. Ducey says:

    Captain Obvious:
    By the numbers, Murray was much worse than the Whitney/Kaberle class of hockey players above.He was – 5, a below replacement level hockey player, and easily one of the worst regular Dmen in the league.

    That was an incredibly bad trade by Pittsburgh.

    I would think Murray would be seen as being worth more than Whitney as he is (or has the reputation of being) a “heavy”player able to handle the physical stuff in the playoffs.

    Lets face it. In the playoffs the refs put their whistles away and guys like Murray can make a good living obstructting and intimidating.

  65. rickithebear says:

    it has become readlly apparent that we are getting a blend of pre and post lockout. The league allows the un restricted zone entry of post lockout.

    But in the elite shooting % area of 25 feet around the net. the nasty pre 04 play is now the norm.

    Corsi needs to be broken into shots from the low % pussy area and high % man Area.

    To which!
    Fistric Useless?
    He is the clear example of a Dman who keeps the other teams 1st/2nds from the man zone.
    From the top 180 minutes and GP dmen.
    Q comp 30th .052 petry 14th; Smid 19th; potter 40th
    GA/60 16th 1.60 potter 28th; Petry 75th; Smid 102nd
    Zone start 10th 42.1%; potter 27th

    yup Fistric and potter
    top 40
    Comp
    Zone start ,
    GA.
    the others
    Weber
    Brodin.

  66. Thor762 says:

    Wouldn’t picking up Kaberle (even if he is only a Whitney equivalent) and then trading Whitney for whatever can be had for him, still coming out further ahead?

  67. Captain Obvious says:

    Woodguy,

    The basic idea is that it is possible to provide a better picture of +/- by doing two things. First, isolating goalie performance from player performance, and second, accounting for context.

    Regarding the first I use SA instead of GA to count for goals allowed and a combination of G, A1, A2, and SF to account for goals for. I think this makes sense because while it is probably true that players contribute to easier/harder shots against this effect is vanishingly small in comparison to goalie performance and variance. Thus SA is a much better measure than GA. However, the converse is not quite true. If you used SF instead of GF players like Stamkos, Malkin, and Crosby, while they would still do well would not stand out like they do in real life. So instead I use a weighted points formula (Goals x1.5, A2 x .5) for points and then make up the difference with SF so that the calculated GF=real GF (because everything has to balance).

    For context, I ran a multiple regression analysis of zone start, Qcomp, Qteam, against shot differential. This gives me a coefficient for each that can be used to adjust GF/GA up or down concerning the context of the performance. Zone starts and Qteam are quite predictive (especially zone starts). Qcomp is trickier, if you run it on the entire sample of players you actually get the impossible result that playing harder competition makes it easier to score. This is because, amongst other reasons, that players who play harder competition are also better. I address this problem by using a smaller sample of players who are in and out of the lineup. If you do it this way you get a valid correlation between Qcomp and shot differential.

    Finally, I measure replacement level by taking a subsection of players who are back and forth between the NHL and the AHL and guys on waivers and see what their real results are.

    I could improve it by spending some time refining the sample from which the coefficients and replacement level is drawn from but it wouldn’t make a big difference.

    So what does it measure: It measures what happened on the ice while the player was on the ice, it measures the context this happened in, and it isolates the players contribution to scoring events. It is a value measure not a predictive measure. In my opinion before you get anywhere near a predictive measure you have know first, what happened. That’s what this does. Then you’d have to isolate why it happened.

    So what it does is that it generates a list of roughly comparable players in terms of value. Once there, you have to do some finer analysis to see what is fully going on. Three specific limitations:

    One guys like Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz come out looking fantastic. However, my judgement wouldn’t be that this means that Dupuis and Kunitz are superstars, it would be that some of the value of Malkin and Crosby is leaking into their numbers.

    Second, this doesn’t account for variation in offensive shooting percentage. I think this is a feature not a bug. Otherwise you can’t account for how good Stamkos is or how much actual value Eberle contributed last year. However, you have to know this about the system and make a judgement about whether it is likely to continue. For instance, Chris Stewart came out terrible last year and will likely come out quite good this year. Which is the real player? Neither.

    Third, this like any statistical measure relies on the law of large numbers, i.e. sample size, and the myth that players have a “true talent.” However, the ability of players change and there is no way of knowing when or if this has happened. So using three years of data would deal with the problem of variation of shooting percentage however there is no way to know on the basis of data whether the variation that occurs is natural variation or whether the underlying ability has changed.

  68. Captain Obvious says:

    Fistric was a below replacement player last year, similar to Murray, -3 ES.

  69. jp says:

    Thor762:
    Wouldn’t picking up Kaberle (even if he is only a Whitney equivalent) and then trading Whitney for whatever can be had for him, still coming out further ahead?

    Kinda. Kaberle has an extra year on his deal though.

    He’s always (in the last 5 yrs) had relatively easy competition and ZS and his CorsiRel has ranged from average to good. Good chance he’d outperform Whitney if given his minutes.

  70. Ribs says:

    Hope the braintrust is working the phones. Defencemen moving all over the place. Grab a chair before the music stops, guys!

  71. Lowetide says:

    Ribs:
    Hope the braintrust is working the phones. Defencemen moving all over the place. Grab a chair before the music stops, guys!

    Who would you like to see dealt?

  72. prairieschooner says:

    If we acquired Kaberle and traded Whitney for picks would we be a better hockey team?
    Would Kaberle be more or less physical than Whitney?

  73. striatic says:

    3 point game between Preds and Avs.

    Oilers can still catch Preds with a game in hand, if Colorado can win this.

  74. striatic says:

    Avs win!

  75. Gret99zky says:

    To be fair, LT is generally very, very positive. Almost to a fault. Also, he doesn’t seem like the smoking something type.

    I have believed since the beginning of the season the Oilers would not make the playoffs after adding only two rookies in the offseason. When the dirty russian went down and no NHL players were brought in to help that just confirmed it.

    My hopes were for the Oilers to move from 30, 30, 29th to 25-20 overall. It looks like that is going to happen. Althought I would like Edmonton to pick high in this deep draft year I don’t think the losing helps Hall, Ebs, RNH or the rest of the kids.

    I have been enjoying the games and watching the kids grow up and have reasonable expectations for this team overall.

    I love that Calgary is going to be losing for the next 2-3 seasons and hope their rebuild is not as effective as ours. And I hope ours is as effective as it can be. Patience.

    Hopefully in the next couple of deadlines (after this one) the Oilers will be trading their draft picks for pieces to make a good playoff run. Long may you run.

  76. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=42291

    Ralphie pre-game-he talks specifically about rolling the 4 lines and line matching.

  77. Ribs says:

    Lowetide: Who would you like to see dealt?

    Well, they need to get something for Whitney. You have to think that at the trade deadline his value will be at it’s highest.

    One of Peckham or Fistric should get you something at the deadline as well. NHL GM’s love these types of guys, and you don’t really need two of them on your roster.

    Sign Smid or do the deed. I really hate giving up on a guy just as he is turning into a useful player. This seems to happen far too often with this player type.

    If you can upgrade N.Schultz, go for it. This just can’t be the only thing that you do.

    So basically they need to add two capable defencemen and not subtract two in the process. Unlike some of the young forwards, we have a pretty good idea of what the defencemen on this team are and will become in the future. There is no need to hang on to guys to further assess them.

    I would just like to see a proactive approach for a change. Lacklustre deals a minute before the deadline just don’t seem necessary. Other teams are making moves early so that they get what they want and not what’s leftover. Let’s try that!

  78. Derek says:

    prairieschooner:
    Ifwe acquired Kaberle and traded Whitney for picks would we be a better hockey team?
    Would Kaberle be more or less physical than Whitney?

    I’m sure they’re a better team with Kaberle over Whitney. Unfortunately Kaberle comes with a price tag of 4.25/yr with an extra year.

    Tough to pay a third pairing Dman that much, and its a big gamble to assume he can play second pairing minutes at this stage of his career.

  79. striatic says:

    Gret99zky: My hopes were for the Oilers to move from 30, 30, 29th to 25-20 overall. It looks like that is going to happen. Althought I would like Edmonton to pick high in this deep draft year I don’t think the losing helps Hall, Ebs, RNH or the rest of the kids.

    my expectation at the start of the year was similar. 11th in the west, 20th in the league.

    just inside the bottom third of the league.

    making the playoffs is extremely unlikely, and although winning tonight’s game and the next one at home changes that picture significantly i have difficulty seeing Edmonton pulling things together down the stretch against too many top 5 teams.

    the major positive this year has been the lack of multi-game losing skids.

    team seems to be able make adjustments after losses and not fall into a losing rut. health has something to do with this, but maybe a little bit of this can be attributed to coaching too?

  80. FPB94 says:

    Derek,

    Eat the 4M$ this year (actually you don’t because you just traded Whitney)

    Then next year pump and dump him at the deadline.

    A can’t skate anymore Hal Gill was traded for a 2nd round last year.

    Any sentient being called a defenseman sees his value skyrocket at the deadline. That’s what smart GM’s do.

  81. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious,

    First of all, this is really interesting.

    Are you posting your results anywhere?

    Secondly:

    For context, I ran a multiple regression analysis of zone start, Qcomp, Qteam, against shot differential. This gives me a coefficient for each that can be used to adjust GF/GA up or down concerning the context of the performance. Zone starts and Qteam are quite predictive (especially zone starts). Qcomp is trickier, if you run it on the entire sample of players you actually get the impossible result that playing harder competition makes it easier to score. This is because, amongst other reasons, that players who play harder competition are also better. I address this problem by using a smaller sample of players who are in and out of the lineup. If you do it this way you get a valid correlation between Qcomp and shot differential.

    I would just throw Qcomp out all together.

    Been reading a lot of what a variety of guys are looking at many are starting to dimiss QC from calculations because the number on Gabe’s site isn’t producing a hard number that can be used in a calculation.

    Rather, QC is good for looking at how a coach deploys the plays and what level of comp they play, but the hard number cannot be used to compare players from across teams.

    One guys like Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz come out looking fantastic. However, my judgement wouldn’t be that this means that Dupuis and Kunitz are superstars, it would be that some of the value of Malkin and Crosby is leaking into their numbers.

    That’s the biggest challenge with Corsi right now too.

    How do you separate line mate effects? They are massive. Competition effects are much, much less because:

    1) You don’t; spend a massive amount of time against any one player
    2) NHL ability isn’t radically different from player to player when you look at the subsets that a player plays against. (i.e. if you always play against 1st pairing and 2nd pairing D you are playing against very similar type players and the amount of TOI you spend against the very good ones, washes against the worst of the that group)

    You can do your WOWY analysis, and that really helps to tease out individual performance, but then you need more context. i.e. if Eberle isn’t playing with Hall, who is he playing with and is that LW a drag on the number? If Eberle isn’t with Hall is he playing easier comp and how does that affect his number.

    It also helps to have large samples when doing WOWY and we simply don’t have it this year.

    Tyler is doing some really cool stuff by putting players in the subsections (he calls them buckets):

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5701

    He’s creating 4 levels of performance to create baselines to judge players by their corsi AND how they are deployed.

    Very cool stuff.

  82. Captain Obvious says:

    I’ll look at what Tyler is doing after Easter if I can find the time. I do this, very, very, part time. I developed the system in a couple of nights last year, ran into the Qcomp problem and gave it up. Had a eureka on the Qcomp this year and did the rest in another night.

    My first idea last year was similar to the bucket idea but unless he thinks of something I didn’t I don’t think it works since it just brackets the basic problem is comparing players from bucket to bucket. Since that’s the problem that needs to be solved putting them in buckets just begs the question.

    Finally, I’ve read some of the stuff on ignoring Qcomp but I think they are wrong. I agree on the fundamental problem which is why it dropped this last year. However, just because it is hard to use the data doesn’t mean that Qcomp doesn’t matter or you get to ignore the data. Moreover, the problem isn’t the data, the problem is measuring the correlation between the data and goals/shots. Qcomp does correlate with results. That’s a fact. The question is how do you quantify that fact. You do that by isolating the variable as much as possible.

    All that said Qcomp matters by orders of magnitude less than Qteam if for no other reason than the variation of Qteam is much greater. At the end of the day everyone plays everyone but you’re stuck with your teammates.

    The real benefit of the way I do it is because it’s all by components you can zero out the Qcomp effect if you’d prefer. So for instance, Kaberle’s Qcomp factor is -.04 goals/60 which matters almost not at all. Even a guy like Bouwmeester who plays relatively tough competition only gets a .1 G/60 benefit for tough competition which comes out to 3 goals over the course of a season.

  83. Derek says:

    FPB94:
    Derek,

    Eat the 4M$ this year (actually you don’t because you just traded Whitney)

    Then next year pump and dump him at the deadline.

    A can’tskate anymore Hal Gill was traded for a 2nd round last year.

    Any sentient being called a defenseman sees his value skyrocket at the deadline. That’s what smart GM’s do.

    I don’t disagree with any of this. So you pickup Kaberle, dump Whitney and next year you have:

    Schultz – XXX
    Smid – Petry
    Kaberle – Schultz

    Can you afford to pay Kaberle that much money next season to be a bottom pair defender with Ladi’s raise, (hopefully) another top 4 acquisition and a 2 way veteran fwd? I don’t spend as much time looking at the cap and crunching numbers as others here,but it is a workable defense if XXX is a good player and Schultz takes another step forward.

    Of course we’re talking about the Oilers of Edmonton so we end up with:

    Smid – Petry
    Schultz – Schultz
    Kaberle – Klefbom

    If Kaberles wheels fall off in his 36 year old season and Klefbom isn’t Brodin we’re in the same situation next year with that defense as we are today.

    Edit to add: XXX being a UFA acquisition or the result of a Hemsky/Gagner trade.

  84. Lowetide says:

    UND just lost in the NCAA’s, they’re out. I wonder if they sign Simpson? He doesn’t have to come out this year but I get the feeling the Oilers like him more than some others. Guess we’ll find out.

  85. FPB94 says:

    Derek,

    Souray comes off the books for 1,5M$ next year (Current capspace at 17M$)

    If you raise Smid to 3,75-4M$ there’s virtually no change.

    NK, Jones, Sutton Fistric all come off the books too and the only one who can command near to his current salary is Fistric and NK.

    There’s lot of space to deal with.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Ribs: Well, they need to get something for Whitney. You have to think that at the trade deadline his value will be at it’s highest.

    One of Peckham or Fistric should get you something at the deadline as well. NHL GM’s love these types of guys, and you don’t really need two of them on your roster.

    Sign Smid or do the deed. I really hate giving up on a guy just as he is turning into a useful player. This seems to happen far too often with this player type.

    If you can upgrade N.Schultz, go for it. This just can’t be the only thing that you do.

    So basically they need to add two capable defencemen and not subtract two in the process. Unlike some of the young forwards, we have a pretty good idea of what the defencemen on this team are and will become in the future. There is no need to hang on to guys to further assess them.

    I would just like to see a proactive approach for a change. Lacklustre deals a minute before the deadline just don’t seem necessary. Other teams are making moves early so that they get what they want and not what’s leftover. Let’s try that!

    I pretty much agree, wonder about Peckham. He hasn’t played in so long, I think he would have played if there was a market. He’s so far in the doghouse they might just walk him this summer.

  87. rickithebear says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Fistric was a below replacement player last year, similar to Murray, -3 ES.

    MP was a below replacement player last year.
    Your all for letting MP go too?

  88. rickithebear says:

    FPB94:
    Derek,

    Souray comes off the books for 1,5M$ next year (Current capspace at 17M$)

    If you raise Smid to 3,75-4M$ there’s virtually no change.

    NK, Jones, Sutton Fistric all come off the books too and the only one who can command near to his current salary is Fistric and NK.

    There’s lot of space to deal with.

    So teh best EVen Dman in the game comed off the books.
    Umh! yeah/ Boo? Boo/ yeah?

    More like grab a fucking brain!

  89. Derek says:

    rickithebear: So teh best EVen Dman in the game comed off the books.
    Umh! yeah/ Boo? Boo/ yeah?

    More like grab a fucking brain!

    http://rjosephhoffmann.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/moran.jpg

    Thanks FPB, I’ve never run the numbers so I was unaware of how it would all affect the cap structure of the team.

  90. DBO says:

    Leopold just went for a 2nd and a 4th or 5th (conditional). Whitney is worth a 2nd (crazy I know). For once Mr. Dithers could work out if they wait till Tuesday or Wednesday. Boston still has added no one and their PP sucks balls, so Whitney is a fit. You may very well get a 1st for Whitney and Jones. And no that is not a joke. Desperate teams mean sellers market.

    - still hope they add as well as subtract.

    - said it a few days ago. Deal Eager for Jokinen (clear upgrade at 3 LW). only adds $ 2 mill this year and next (since we lose Eagers $1.1 mill)
    - move Whitney and Jones to Boston for a 1st, or a 2nd and a solid prospect (goalie perhaps, not Subban. no chance)
    - Move Bulin for a 3rd (maybe TO)
    - I would send Detroit a 5th for White. He is an upgrade on Potter, and is a UFA after the year.
    - Sign Smid. Just do it already.
    - Bring up Lander so we have a real centre on 4th line, and let Smyth play LW where he is most effective (especially as a 4th liner, Depth, crazy stuff)
    - Deal belanger for anything. Just clear his cap hit for next year.
    - Look to add a dman who is young enough to help the next few years, even if it means dealing decent prospects. If you could pry Bowmeester away (and I agree with Woodguy, I would take Giordano first) for picks and prospects I think you do it.
    - I still want Boyle from NYR. Maybe Belanger and Petrell with a pick. Maybe Shultz Sr. (only if you get Bowmeester type) Don’t know how, but he is a perfect 4th line centre.

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Pajaarvi-Gagner-Yak
    Jokinen-Horc-Hemsky
    Smyth-Lander/Boyle-Brown

    Bowmeester-Shultz
    Smid-Petry
    Shultz-White
    Potter

    That is a huge upgrade, and it is doable dammit. Be creative MAcTambLoweSon

  91. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Losing Peckham to fast food and wild partying is the same as if he’d blown his knee out. I’m pretty certain they the management were counting on him to at least turn up ready to play hockey.

    That was up to Theo, of course.

  92. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Lowetide,

    Peckham’s ghetto – he thinks his ELC is good enough.

    Which is a real shame, because that’s one tough hombre – remembering a certain game played in the East where the entire opposition took turns running Peckham. He might have been hit by a dozen different players, but it didn’t even bother him.

    A real shame.

    Yeah, I’ve always liked him. I saw him in the summer and he looked pretty fit, but timing is everything.

  93. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide,

    I recall Katz’s promise to spend money on the team- hire Georges Laraque, specifically to mentor Peckham as a new age enforcer.

  94. lawrenharris says:

    FPB94:
    Derek,

    Eat the 4M$ this year (actually you don’t because you just traded Whitney)

    Then next year pump and dump him at the deadline.

    A can’tskate anymore Hal Gill was traded for a 2nd round last year.

    Any sentient being called a defenseman sees his value skyrocket at the deadline. That’s what smart GM’s do.

    If Kaberle brings, like, a second rounder next year, why is MTL not getting that second rounder this year?

  95. Gret99zky says:

    DBO:

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Pajaarvi-Gagner-Yak
    Jokinen-Horc-Hemsky
    Smyth-Lander/Boyle-Brown

    Bowmeester-Shultz
    Smid-Petry
    Shultz-White
    Potter

    That is a huge upgrade, and it is doable dammit. Be creative MAcTambLoweSon

    This looks like a clear upgrade on what we have now.

    Although I would rather have Gio than Bouwmeester, as well.

    Pretty sure Bouwmeester costs us our first pick and a decent prospect +. Edmonton will be asked to overpay compared to what other teams will be asked to pay. So if we are overpaying, get Gio.

  96. FPB94 says:

    lawrenharris,

    Because this year Kaberle is being benched for having sideburns, and he comes with an extra year. Had he been an expiring contract he would be worth more.

  97. Lucinius says:

    lawrenharris,

    Because he’s signed for next year. A lot of teams do not want to take on even more money for next year with the cap coming down unless they are sending a contract back the other way.

  98. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    UND just lost in the NCAA’s, they’re out. I wonder if they sign Simpson? He doesn’t have to come out this year but I get the feeling the Oilers like him more than some others. Guess we’ll find out.

    He’s pretty young, especially for D.

    No reason to pull him out.

  99. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: UND just lost in the NCAA’s, they’re out. I wonder if they sign Simpson?

    His Dad was a sensational support player. As good as anyone the Habs ever iced. Hard to even use that word to describe such a first class act.

  100. cabbiesmacker says:

    FPB94,

    Kaberle’s ship has sailed. Pass.

  101. FPB94 says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    It’s more about perceived value than actual value. We all know Whitney’s ship has sailed… yet

  102. Lowetide says:

    Lander (Davidson)

  103. speeds says:

    Woodguy: He’s pretty young, especially for D.

    No reason to pull him out.

    One reason to get him out of college, if he wants to sign, now is that it’s possible the young D depth chart of EDM prospects is something he looks at and, come next spring, decides he’s better off to wait until August and become a UFA.

  104. DBO says:

    FPB94,

    yet he is a UFA next year, which this season means a lot. Talk of Bowmeester being wanted, but Calgary having to either eat salary or take salary back. Interesting year.

  105. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909: His Dad was a sensational support player. As good as anyone the Habs ever iced. Hard to even use that word to describe such a first class act.

    Habs Gracie?

  106. Woodguy says:

    speeds: One reason to get him out of college, if he wants to sign, now is that it’s possible the young D depth chart of EDM prospects is something he looks at and, come next spring, decides he’s better off to wait until August and become a UFA.

    Good reason to have open on honest communication with the player.

    Given that his Dad is an ex-Oiler who has an Oiler cup ring there will be immense pressure not to screw them.

  107. DeadmanWaking says:

    Yesterday–now subsuming most of yesterday and all of today–I spiked my shot-glass at the darkest witching hour and shucked a pharmaceutical muzzle over my obstreperous slumber sirens for not speaking up when given the chance. The idea behind this bat-winged confection is to board the black-side booster every few weeks, exchanging my unwelcome (and too-regular) stint of long, dark nights for the brief taint of chthonic urine, this being the primary medicinal side-effect of operation yardarm scramble. In orbital terms–should this drug work as advertised–perigee asparagus-pee will bolster apogee dwell in the manner of the exotic tundra orbit employed by Sirius Satellite Radio and I will sleep more often at night. Whenever my sleep-drifting sloth slooms under the midday sun, two small, white, carefully spaced versicles of Swing Low, Sweet Chariot will (perhaps) get me to the other side, or at least convenience the necessary pit stops along the way.

    Translation: I’ve been awake for a long time now, as a result of taking a magic pill or two to sleep when others do, and maybe it’s making me weirder than normal.

    About that bastard coinage “versicles”: With “versicles” I’ve conflated “verses” with “vesicles” (the little membranous pills of cellular biology that release all the happy drugs), making the word opaque to non-biologists. Unfortunately, there are some things Google just can’t do. It doesn’t help at all that “versicle” is a real word, not meaning what I intended. In freshly rescinded Swedish this is termed “ogooglebar”, meaning unsearchable with Google.

    Another good word from that list: Nakenchock. This describes other side of NSFW. “Don’t click that link, you’ll get a nakenchock.” Literally, “naked shock”.

    Here’s one of my own. Streisandpimp: To popularize by making efforts to suppress. I fear it’s destined to remain ogooglebar unless Streisand foolishly objects; Google, however, has done a nice job of Streisandpimping “ogooglebar” without her involvement.

    “Sloom” from my opening paragraph is an obsolete Scottish word for being half-asleep. It also has a less obsolete meaning “to soften or rot by dampening”. Half asleep under a newly sprouted mushroom, then. I like the word in a poetic sense.

    We watched the movie Terri last night, meaning earlier today (for me, at least). I found it strangely engrossing. Spoiler warning next 100km. An attractive, naive, and sexually audacious young woman (nakenchoc) takes a shine to a kind-hearted yet obese classmate (nakenchock) only the hard liquor and unmarked psych-med highball doesn’t completely overcome the teenage nakenchoc + nakenchock exhibition inhibition.

    What is it with teens and drugs, anyway? The sandalwood tome doesn’t talk too much about teen sexuality, other than to observe that America has sex and violence strangely inverted. I had a stray thought about this while watching the movie. Teens are hugely invested in identity maintenance. However much their identity hangs in tatters, they cling to it like a terrycloth mother. The lead character Terri is an excellent case in point. He’s not much busting out of his drab life. Sex is riotously destabilizing when first experienced. This worries teens who cling so tenuously to whatever slim identity they’ve nailed down. However, suppose you first get yourself completely shit-faced on Plan 9 joy juice? One can always hope that what happens on Vega stays on Vega. Only in the end, it doesn’t work that way. Sadly, many teens pass-through into their adult sexuality by means of woozy fumblings after a joy-juice jamboree. As if to underscore this point, Terri wears his comfortable XXXL jammies through the whole damn movie, minus one traumatic shot of full-frontal nakenmoobchock (for the audience, but also for Terri himself, which severely curtails his advance).

    We also watched Black Swan the other night. No nakenchock in this one! Maybe a little neckenchock/neckenchoc; one or the other, depending on taste. What’s sauce for the goose is salt for the gander. Or was that the other way around? It’s quite the sadistic little movie. Mila’s character is severely tricksy. In slang a “Trixie” marries a “Chad”. Chad happens to be the smart, thin, psychotic teenage boy in Terri who functions dramatically and psychologically at the level of the invasive black swan (the Mila character) in The Black Swan, a live-for-the-moment supercharged, sculpted-thighs sexpot who distinguishes men as “Ben” and “Jerry” when she’s not roiling Natalie, in Natalie’s sundered mind, now “rolling” for the first time on Mila’s surplus extasy, if Mila’s character even exists. But never mind that, she’s roiling Natalie in our minds, if not her own.

    Turns out, both of these movies feature close-shots of facial feminine pleasure, the protraction of which seems to be highly problematic for the MPAA. The documentary This Film is Not Yet Rated goes into this (need I add NSFW to a movie that parades MPAA excisions?)

    Here’s one funny scene: Arwenchock

    Twenty-eight hours now. Time to crank-out the landing gear and let her tumble. Hopefully I’ll dream deep nakenchoc dreams and awaken to a sweet-smelling piss-cutter skunk.

  108. Woodguy says:

    speeds: One reason to get him out of college, if he wants to sign, now is that it’s possible the young D depth chart of EDM prospects is something he looks at and, come next spring, decides he’s better off to wait until August and become a UFA.

    Don’t the OIlers hold his rights for 4 years?

  109. Lowetide says:

    Green fields and sunshine, DMW. And a girl in a red dress. :-)

  110. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy,

    I meant Craig Simpson. Hard to imagine him as being the third man on any totem pole, but because his linemates were Messier and Anderson…

  111. Lowetide says:

    Harski scores a youtube goal (according to oklahoma city barons twitter) to tie it.

  112. Lowetide says:

    assists to Lander and Fedun.

  113. Lowetide says:

    FastOil: I can’t let this go. Way offside Hunter. Nothing funny, insightful, or of value there, only hurtfulness. A person, even on the Gore, only has their reputation and character.

    hunt? I don’t get it. Does this mean something new?

  114. rickithebear says:

    THIS SITE IS FUNNY!

    The best EV Goal results Dman is dismissed cause.
    goals do not mean as much as Shots!

    Every time there is the goals are not a good measure.

    I see the same individuals going to a store.
    Looking at an items price.
    Walking up to a checkout to pay.
    Having the clerk tell you the cost listed with tax.
    Then you saying comr on that is not the real price.
    The clerk looks at you like you are nuts, “yer! Yes it is!”

    Cone on Fistric is not that good?
    Yes! Right now he is!

  115. Lowetide says:

    Lander with his second of the night, this one unassisted.

  116. Lowetide says:

    Cornet has now scored.

  117. hunter1909 says:

    That guy playing for Montreal wearing 27 looks like a player.

  118. Lowetide says:

    Hartikainen (Lander, Rajala)

  119. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    That guy playing for Montreal wearing 27 looks like a player.

    Frank Mahovlich?

  120. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide,

    In another sense, yes.

  121. rich says:

    Nice to see Lander putting up some offense in OKC. Hope that mgmnt resists the temptation to bring him up for a cup of coffee and allows him to continue to gain confidence under Nelson.

    A couple of the best stories from this season would be this and MPS growing under RK.

  122. fuzzy muppet says:

    AM i the only one that thinks it’s hilarious that in a game where OKC has scored 5 goals in 2 periods, Eager and Hordichuk are both -1

  123. FPB94 says:

    hunter1909,

    Yeah. It’s been awhile i haven’t hated anyone on the club (or disliked vehemently)

    Eller, Galchenyuk and Gallagher all look like winners. (And Ryder scores even if at 30+ and in the NHL still skates like a duck)

  124. Lowetide says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    AM i the only one that thinks it’s hilarious that in a game where OKC has scored 5 goals in 2 periods, Eager and Hordichuk are both -1

    I think the OKC barons have won all the games in which those two are HS too.

  125. Lowetide says:

    Fedun scores!

  126. Lowetide says:

    Anton Lander has five points tonight in OKC, 2-3-5. Nice.

  127. Kirby says:

    Lowetide,

    Another assist by Lander, 5 points and +4 now. Marincin with the other assist – have you heard anything about his progress since the NHLer’s have moved back up north LT?

  128. FPB94 says:

    Lowetide,

    If he continues he might double his scoring totals. Don’t know if that’s good or not LOL”

  129. Lowetide says:

    i bet Lander gets a callup this week. Have no idea if he’ll ever score in the NHL, but that Nordic line seems to have some things.

  130. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I think the OKC barons have won all the games in which those two are HS too.

    Stop that.

    Be patient with Tambellini.

    Do not purposefully point out a player he signed for 3 years in the NHL and a player he signed just last summer and played 4 NHL games in that contract are making the AHL affiliate better by not being in the line up.

    Rebuilds take time.

  131. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    i bet Lander gets a callup this week. Have no idea if he’ll ever score in the NHL, but that Nordic line seems to have some things.

    Who’s the 3rd nordic? Rajala?

  132. Rondo says:

    Oilers could use a center like Peter Holland from Anaheim.

  133. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Anton Lander has five points tonight in OKC, 2-3-5. Nice.

    Maybe the light turned on inside the other guy they drafted in the top 40 in 2009.

  134. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Who’s the 3rd nordic? Rajala?

    Lander-Harski-Paajarvi with the Oilers there for a heartbeat.

  135. FPB94 says:

    Woodguy,

    On another note, Troy Hesketh is out of hockey .

  136. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Loking forward to a great effort. I din’t see any of the last game due to being in the hospital for the birth of my second dauther, but reports make it seem like there is more ‘spice’ and completeness teamwide.

    Having lackluster effort at this stage in the season is troublesome and unacceptable.

    That being said, I like the reaction from Hall after being benched for two shifts. I can’t imagine how long that sit must have felt for a guy with that drive.

  137. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Not to nitpick, but isn’t the lyric ‘OUR home and natove land’, not ‘AHR home …”?

  138. spoiler says:

    Oh. My. God.

  139. fuzzy muppet says:

    I think that qualifies as a good start

  140. jonathanfroese says:

    Is Rajala playing with Lander-Hartikainen? I’m getting ahead of myself here, but could that trio graduate together next year? I’d give that group 8 minutes a night in place of the group we call a fourth line these days.

    (First time comment, long time reader. Love the blog, Lowetide)

  141. Kirby says:

    beautiful shot!

  142. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Marchand!!

  143. Woodguy says:

    Well that’s a good start.

  144. Lowetide says:

    Hall. 1.

  145. hunter1909 says:

    Ha ha nice cheap shot by the captain.

  146. spoiler says:

    Sign Smid!!

  147. fuzzy muppet says:

    SIGN THE MAN!!!!!!!

  148. Woodguy says:

    Sign theman!

    For not more than $3.5/yr please

  149. hunter1909 says:

    Where’s my Safeway Score and Win coupon?

  150. Lowetide says:

    Hall 2.

  151. fuzzy muppet says:

    WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON????????????

  152. spoiler says:

    Silly line matching by Vigneault there.

  153. jp says:

    Suntory Hanzo:
    Loking forward to a great effort.I din’t see any of the last game due to being in the hospital for the birth of my second dauther, but reports make it seem like there is more ‘spice’ and completeness teamwide.

    Having lackluster effort at this stage in the season is troublesome and unacceptable.

    That being said, I like the reaction from Hall after being benched for two shifts.I can’t imagine how long that sit must have felt for a guy with that drive.

    How’s it looking so far?

  154. hunter1909 says:

    This has been building in Hall’s mind for quite some time.

  155. Rondo says:

    Rondo,

    Not so much now

  156. jb says:

    but these shooting %’s are unsustaintable

  157. Woodguy says:

    So.

    Oilers.

  158. hunter1909 says:

    Gagner hasn’t even started scoring yet.

  159. icecastles says:

    It’s an Easter miracle.

  160. Suntory Hanzo says:

    jp,

    well played. My Canuck friends are texting me saying wtf. I live out in the lower mainland…so all is good!

  161. asiaoil says:

    We got us some old time 80s Oiler hockey here tonight…

  162. spoiler says:

    My lord. I mean Gord.

  163. spoiler says:

    Now we go 4th against 1st. Give up a penalty.

  164. hunter1909 says:

    Tonight is payback. For all those fucking Bertuzzi and Naslund goals.

  165. jonathanfroese says:

    I should comment more often!

  166. icecastles says:

    So the pace at this point is a goal every 2 minutes. Final score 30-0?

  167. hunter1909 says:

    This is the most beautiful hockey game of the year.

    Flames: totally blow – check

    Nucks : divers get bitch slapped – check

  168. Rondo says:

    Lander 3-3

  169. wordbird says:

    spoiler:
    Sign Smid!!

    I’ll second that.

    AWESOMEBALLS!
    Let’s bury these f**kers!

  170. Lowetide says:

    This is fun, and as mentioned above exactly like the 80s. I had to pee, couldn’t leave!

  171. fuzzy muppet says:

    So they’ve gone from sellers to potential buyers in 10 days…

    It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad, mad world

  172. spoiler says:

    hunter1909:
    This is the most beautiful hockey game of the year.

    Yes, yes… YEAH, BABY!!!

    But Oilers, so expect drama.

  173. Rondo says:

    Vancouver needs to pull the goalie

  174. fuzzy muppet says:

    Hall may score 10 tonight

  175. spoiler says:

    Swweeeeeeeeeet Baaaaaabbbyyy Jeeeeeeeeesuss!!

  176. Lowetide says:

    Hall 3.

  177. icecastles says:

    There are just no words for this. No words. I was feeling so crappy tonight and I’ve traded it for a sore throat from cheering. :) So happy right now.

  178. hunter1909 says:

    Lot of bald dudes tonight.

  179. fuzzy muppet says:

    Are there still people that think they should have taken Tyler?

  180. jp says:

    jonathanfroese:
    I should comment more often!

    Use your powers wisely.

  181. jp says:

    Rondo:
    Lander 3-3

    Wow. Imagine how many goals the Oilers would have now if Lander was in the lineup!

  182. striatic says:

    Chance won’t be denied tonight.

  183. Woodguy says:

    So this what supernova looks like.

    s

  184. hunter1909 says:

    This game needs a thunderous bodycheck from Pajaarvi to some douchey Canuck..

  185. icecastles says:

    hunter1909: This game needs a thunderous bodycheck from Pajaarvi to some douchey Canuck..

    If Mike Brown fights Lunogo, I’ll be good.

  186. BlacqueJacque says:

    Wow I am so excited to be watching this live on TV. This is the reason you stick with a team in mis-late season even when they’re all but out.

  187. spoiler says:

    All three forwards vacate the zone. Jesus.

  188. striatic says:

    Vancouver, to their credit, is coming back hard.

  189. spoiler says:

    Holy fuckin Jesus Christ Doobs.

  190. Ryan says:

    Good lord. What is Taylor Hall up to? I missed the first period.

  191. striatic says:

    Pierogi Monster looking solid tonight.

  192. jp says:

    Dubnyk helping out.

    This IS fun, but I’m not going to feel confident about a win until the Oil have a 6 or 7 goal lead!

  193. rich says:

    hunter1909:
    This game needs a thunderous bodycheck from Pajaarvi to some douchey Canuck..

    What he said.

  194. Ryan says:

    Luongo and Schneider had one save in the first 5 shots.

  195. striatic says:

    Oilers broke the CBC score clock.

  196. Oiler_Kiwi says:

    Taylor Hall
    TOI 2:23
    SOG 3
    G 3
    SH% 100

    WOW WOW WOW

  197. spoiler says:

    If that puck doesnt roll on Hemmer’s stick….

  198. icecastles says:

    Oiler_Kiwi:
    Taylor Hall
    TOI 2:23
    SOG 3
    G 3
    SH% 100

    WOW WOW WOW

    Unsustainable.

  199. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Hopefully Hall 1 ups Lander.

    Why the commentators surprised that the Oilers can break out and score a shit ton of goals?

    I think the early part of the season was not the norm. No?

  200. hunter1909 says:

    striatic: Vancouver, to their credit, is coming back hard.

    More like the French Army in 1940. If they don’t try they’re going to lose 10-1 and never beat the Oilers for as long as any of us shall live.

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