FRIEDMAN’S 30
We’re at a point now where paying attention to the truly connected (like Elliotte Friedman) is required reading because Oilers management are about to awake from a long winter’s nap. The names going? The ones we’ve discussed, plus another one.
Friedman’s article is here, great read as always. Quoting Friedman:
- Ryan Whitney is getting traded for sure. What’s interesting is it doesn’t seem like there’s been much conversation with UFA-to-be Ladislav Smid. The defenceman is just 27. The only other free agent who will be younger than him and really plays is teammate Mark Fistric. I’m a little surprised they haven’t talked much, because that position is a weakness for Edmonton.
- Edmonton won’t get a ton for players who are about to be free. That’s why you’re probably going to hear Ales Hemsky’s name again, but I wonder about Shawn Horcoff. I stress this is just me talking here, but would the Oilers and/or the player consider it? (He has a no-move clause through this season.) The pros: teams covet competitive centres. Horcoff is certainly that. Check out his contract — two years left at declining numbers, as almost $26 million of his $33 million is already paid. That’s manageable. The cons: They need his defence and face-off work. They are also hurting for veteran leadership.
Friedman correctly points out that it is surprising that the Oilers have not discussed contract with Smid, and of course it is a weakness for Edmonton. Just like the Gilbert trade a year ago, Smid’s “impending exit” suggests the Oilers probably have a plan of action in place to replace him.
Hemsky’s name is out there every spring, but Horcoff is a fascinating name. Edmonton would be badly injured by losing Horcoff from the C depth chart, but if they plan on moving in someone (like Taylor Hall) from the wing then perhaps this is their line of thinking.
I think if we combine “Hall to center” with Woodguy’s “Jack Johnson is in play” we might be able to build a template for this summer.
Smid and Hemsky for Dubinsky and Johnson.
Dubinsky also solves the loss of Horcoff and whoever we gain from that deal would be a bonus. Also the money would work and then some.
vesci,
except JJ is a terrible player
Losing Smid and getting Johnson isn’t exactly addressing our defensive woes… I really hope management’s “plan of action” isn’t replacing Ladi with Oscar
I can’t see CLB having a great deal of interest in Smid.
Tyutin
Nikitin
Wiz
Erixon
Goloubef
Murray
Savard
Pretty loaded on D even without Johnson.
So I just watched Shawn Horcoff’s post-game on the Oilers site, and can someone explain to me why he uses every tell a liar makes when lying?
Eyes top-left? Check.
Covers mouth? Check.
Covers his eyes? Check.
Looks away? Check.
Talks fast? Check.
Constantly touching his neck or face? Check.
Now any one or two of those alone and you don’t think anything of it. But every bit of training I’ve had on the subject is screaming that he’s lying. But it’s a post-game…
So, let me get this straight. They spend years developing Smid & when he’s finally turned the corner, they get rid of him. Round and round we go with these bunch of fuckups in mgmt.
By the way, does anyone else have a tough time stomaching Oil Change? These smug pricks are a laughing stock yet the only ones who don’t know it is themselves & Katz.
gangplank,
I am not sure about terrible, but defensively challenged I will give you. But at least he may be able to make a pass out of his zone rather than attempting to “polo” it around the boards and into the pinching Dman repeatedly and without success.
Dubinsky also solves the loss of Horcoff
No, not really.
Plus, the Oilers need more Centers, not just different ones.
[Dubinsky - Horcoff smells remarkably like Gilbert - Schultz]
Why would Columbus trade for Smid?
Why would Horcoff waive to go to Columbus?
I could go on and on.
BlacqueJacque,
Common mistake. Most liars actually match gazes. Most of his expressions are also expressions exhibited by athletes after a game/event or hard work out. I could do a very long write up on the “science of lying”, but the short of it is that most of it is generalizations that do not cover for a lot of societal, cultural of niche exceptions.
Even micro expressions aren’t as fool proof as once thought, though they are still fairly accurate (except when dealing with sociopaths).
On topic…
Losing Smid. The mere thought depresses me as a fan. Its the kind of move that screams of retarded management unless he’s asking for 5+ million.
Trade Hemsky for a young centre and you are left with a top six of:
RNH-Hall-Eberle
Gagner-Paajarvi-Yakupov
Flip a signed Gagner for a first rounder at the draft; move Hemsky’s return into Gagner’s position.
Completely redo the bottom six over the summer; sign Smid Goddammit!
If the Oilers can find another number two D-man for the first pairing with Justin Schultz, you’re golden.
Personally, I don’t think the Oilers will be competitive until the arena is under construction.
Mr DeBakey,
You mean other than the fact his cap hit is 1.3MM less, he is 8 years younger and may actually be able to contribute when the Oilers actually make the play-offs again.
Replacing Smid isn’t an issue for me, but GET A BETTER PLAYER! I don’t think they will.
Who would you suggest, Lowetide?
Shouldn’t the Oilers concentrate on replacing the worst players in the lineup, instead of some of the better ones? Just a thought…
Lucinius,
I don’t know a lot about the individual signs people consider to be telling of dishonesty. I do know that research indicates that there is either no correlation or a weak inverse correlation between people’s confidence in their own ability to detect lies and their ability to actually do so. Relevantly to my professional life, police detectives are not overall better at detecting lies than members of the general public.
A lot of the symptoms BlacqueJacque cites seem to me to be symptomatic of discomfort, rather than deceit. As such, perhaps they might serve as tells for people who are not comfortable with their lies, but I’d expect them to be less so for habitual liars. This is all guesswork and speculation on my part, though; as I indicated, I’m not familiar with the research on those points.
Oh, and I think we extend Smid before the deadline. But that’s guesswork and speculation too.
If they pick high, Oilers could do this:
Nuge-Hall-Eberle
Gagner-Paajarvi-Yakupov
Horcoff-Hartikainen-Hemsky
Barkov-Smyth-Jones
Lowetide,
I like those lines, but I am sick of management sitting on their hands.
The Oilers are going to pick high. That’s a give in.
Doesn’t mean management can’t make some trades that will positively impact the future.
remember when you were a kid and you found out bears don’t actually hibernate the whole winter? they actually get up, scratch their a**, take a p*ss and and go back to bed? that’s what makes “a winter nap” such a great analogy. the Oil mgmt only awake long enough to re-sign Petrell (sorry, i have nothing against you), Hordichuk and pick up players who force themselves on the roster (Smyth, Schultz).
my wife is a leafs fan and i’ve been a Kadri fan from his first cup of coffee in the show; just seems like a guy who’s fueled by a desire to win. If Horc and Smid are are exchanged for deadline currency and we’re not in the playoffs in the 2013-14 I’m likely to shed real tears…..I’ve got nothing to tie those few thoughts together but if the oilogoshere is talkling Barkov and Sam Reinhart this time next year and Kadri had 60 pts and the Leafs are battling Boston for a division title i might have to start thiing about the logic behind a maritimer staying up til 130AM 3-4 nights a week.
This, from JW’s excellent posting over at ON, states it pretty much perfectly for me:
“That [puck possession] to me, is where the emphasis should lie. All else being equal size is always better than a lack of size, but the primary emphasis should be on players that do a good job of maintaining possession. Big guys like Nathan Horton in Boston and Ryane Clowe in San Jose – both pending unrestricted free agents as of this writing – fit the bill. Big guys like Ben Eager do not. And if the choice comes down to a big, flawed player or a mid-sized guy who rarely surrenders possession and never does without a battle, the team should take the latter player each and every time.”
Get more fucking players that are blue circles in the Vollman charts.
barkov is nhl ready?
Too soft, too small, too fragile, too young, too dumb, too cerebral, too Euro, too modern, too unsustainable, too elegant, too peripheral, too derivative, too many v’s
But me likey. For a wildcard spot next year. With an improved D… and a bona fide #2 G… and some depth… and better coaching…
Lowetide,
I actually really like that combo.
BrazilianOil,
From everything I have read screams NHL ready, playing with men, between 6’2 to 6’4 depending on which scouting report you read and 205 to 210 pound 17 year old…..man child.
Given that folks around here had Hemsky traded at the deadline last year, I am not going to get too excited about Smid leaving just yet. One thing Tambo has shown an ability to do (since Heatley) is to keep the media guessing.
Funny thing is that many are now ok with trading Hemsky.
Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty
Possible trade scenario:Hemsky for Stafford. Hemsky 29, Stafford 27. Hemsky 1 yr left $5 mil, Stafford 2 yrs at $4 mil. Both RW.
To replace Smid? I’d want someone with a little better puck passing/moving ability. I don’t want to spend $4.5M on a stay-at-home.
I’d never make that trade.
Wes Mantooth-11,
and we are ok burning anew ELC ? The lowetide lines are the same this year. Brakov vs. Belanger, and we are lottery pick again.
I think this comment loses the blog. I didn’t even know that losing the blog was possible until now.
I like the lines because 1line really has chem, and Gagner seems to work well with those two youngsters. PLUS you get Horc-Hemmer together with a big winger in Hartikainen.
If the lottery pick surges you move him up.
Lowetide,
What if the rumours about Smid are true? Say 3-3.5m for a 3/4 stay at home D-man?
1) bringing back Jones is a terrible idea. Hartikainen replaces Jones physicality and offense (what there is), and Paajarvi replaces the PKing. Plus, Brown is signed. The bottom six has to be much better. Jones is likeable, but he isn’t a good hockey player.
2) MacT coached Smid. The boys in the room will clearly turn to him and ask him what he thinks. Contracts can no longer be buried. The commitment contracts are rebuild making or rebuild busting contracts. The Smid contract and the Gagner contract will the first in this category for the Oilers. Hall was a no-brainer. Eberle’s required a bit more contemplation. (I don’t have a problem with the Eberle contract.)
Add a milliion per season. 3rd pairing veteran D have been getting $3 million easily for the last two years.
Why not?
Consistent 20 gaols scorer (31 goal career high)
6’2″ 215″
A plus player every season except this one.
Younger, cheaper and far more durable than Hemsky.
Agreed, except they MAY have made an overpay on the Eberle contract (or he may just be having an unlucky year). You have to allow management room for a few mistakes… just not the amount/degree this mgmt group has made.
6.02, 215 and 20 goals is nice. I take Hemsky 10 times out of 10, only because the Spinal Tap option isn’t available.
Lowetide,
Allow me to say that if they trade Smid with the pitiful defence they iced this year(basically 100% depending on a broken down Whitney’s miracle recovery)…
They all should be fired.
They need to ADD defense, not subtract from it.
BrazilianOil,
Best guess, he isn’t going to learn much more in the elite league, he can’t go to the AHL so I think the Oilers would spot him on the forth line playing him 9 -11 min a night with PP duty.
we have seen the Oiler’s not care about the ELC in the past.
Best guess.
Ok so Oilers last time I checked were in 13th place, and as we all know are a total shitshow; but what about the team down the highway in 15th? Or are they more noble or something, because they’ve lived off that Finnish goalie for the last eon?
hunter: Oh sure, it’s a terrible move. However, a good team–like Detroit–would find a way to get him signed for a better number. At $4.5M tiimes 4 years, Smid will not cover that bet ever.
What is losing the blog?
The Oilers can’t be making one for one trades with their few talented players. If they trade Smid, or Hemsky, or Gagner, they need to be adding talent not exchanging talent.
That means taking advantage of potentially cap strapped teams. You can’t trade Hemsky for Stafford because that adds salary to a team that should be dumping it.
However, if a deal with Buffalo is possible I want more than Stafford for Hemsky. Something like Hemsky + 2nd tier D prospect for Stafford and Sekera.
I think there would be lots of interest in Horcoff. Pitt would be a team he could help especially penalty killing.
Oilers need to make a trade like Boston did when they stole their 2x cup winning powerplay from Chicago; ask Bruce for details lol.
Agree. Smid at $3.5 to $3.8M is a reasonable bump from his current $2.25M.
If we are building this team around the likes of Hall, Eberle, RNH +/- Yakapov a few things seem to jump off the page. This is a puck possession offense. It starts with winning draws and also involves puck moving defencemen to hit these guys in stride. Also, you are sinking a lot of cap money into your top 6.
For these reasons I doubt Gags is an Oiler long term. He may be too expensive as early as next year and I doubt he will ever be a beast in the circle. Likewise, the plan might be more to spend on the puck movers and supplement with guys like Fistric,Musil, etc at a lower price point.
Gotta say, I’m becoming a convert in the let’s keep Horcoff as third line center even if he is overpaid department. This team has a real weakness in NHL depth at center and I don’t see anyone to fill his shoes on the horizon.
Maybe they have Smid thinking much like Hemsky last year but with this group and Katz there leader,who knows. Biggest problem is who they need to get rid of ; Whitney , Potter , Peckham maybe Nick Schultz . Lets face it we have two in Petry & Justin and I thought Smid was the only other one going forward . I would keep Fistric for a 6-7 role . . Do we think Klefbom will make it ??? .I would do Hemsky for a top”D”3-5 range if possible and I love Hemsky . Our “D” needs to come up to the NHL level
Well, ‘winning the blog’ has typically been associated with making a comment that is so insightful and witty that no further comments are really needed. Losing the blog would probably be the opposite I would guess.
Trading Smid is the stupidest thing management could do. The Oilers need two more Smids, not zero of them.
I also have time for those lines, LT. Lander should be good enough to be the first centre call up next year and do an ok job. Brown is a fine 13F I suppose. If injuries hit, there will still be lots of trouble, but I think the forward depth will be better next year just by players within the organization developing for one more year.
The issue still remains to be D. Can you trade the upcoming UFAs for enough picks that could be packaged together to get a good NHL defenseman from a “rebuilding” team? Can you get a 2nd high 1st round pick to get a really good defense prospect at the draft? For this fall’s team, you still need at least 1 top 4 defenseman — 2 if you’re not resigning Smid. Could also use another vet so you don’t rely too much on someone like Klefbom (or Fedun).
So, everything is going to stay terrible and get more terrible.
Trade your C and D depth (which is already laughable) and your only real river pusher after 4 and what have you got left? a team the Oil Kings should be able to beat at even odds night in/out.
give smid term, ask for a discount and get him in under 4M.
Trading Smid for Smid is stupid. Trading Smid for Smid upgrade is lovely. (not exactly Tambo’s strong suit though)
I think management can do a whole lot worse than that without breaking sweat.
Sticking to the theme of getting good players by taking on their cap problems the players on the Sabres that are likely to be available are Ehrhoff and Myers. I wouldn’t touch Myers with a 12 foot pole but Ehrhoff is a good player.
The contract is too long though. It’s hard to find a good trade with Buffalo. I’d take Stafford but not for Hemsky. This is the problem the Oilers have. They have so few good players that they don’t have anyone overrated enough to make a good deal unless it is for draft picks. I’d trade two second round picks for Stafford, if that were possible.
I would say that keeping Smid, acquiring a competent 1-2 Dman and running Smid against lower quality comps is the way to go. Put him in position to succeed, instead of throwing him out there with the other best guy in the lineup and hoping for the best (and then when that ‘plan’ fails, jettison him in favor of Smid 2.0).
Montador on waivers. 33 yr old RH dman, 2 yrs left at $@.75, solid two way dman. Has had concussion issues in past, but he is free, is an upgrade on all our other 3 RD and is a vet. On other thread I mentioned he has a solid corsi and shots for vs against (last year), he is just back and healthy. Doesn’t replace Smid, but makes more sense if they go after someone as 1LD, and run with this d pairings
???-Shultz
Shultz Sr. – Petry
Fistric – Montador
Real NHL defensemen on al 3 pairs, and it means we don’t rush anyone.
San Jose is looking pretty cap strapped. I’d look at getting Brent Burns out of them in the offseason for draft picks/marginally useful player.
You mean other than the fact his cap hit is 1.3MM less, he is 8 years younger and may actually be able to contribute when the Oilers actually make the play-offs again.
i guess I didn’t make myself perfectly clear.
Obtaining Dubinsky is a terrific idea.
Unless something else special happens, trading Horcoff for him is a bad idea.
it appears the Oilers have three Cs under contract or in the pipeline who can or will help an NHL team win games. They need more of those.
I think anyone posting on Smid should state their maximum term and maximun dollar amount on a contract, before they say trading Smid is the stupidest thing management could do.
mc79 said he expected Smid could likely get 5 x $4.5 as a UFA hitting the market.
I am not all that crazy for Smid at that term and dollar figure.
So if PIttsburgh offers Joe Morrow for Smid to improve their depth for a Stanley Cup run, I sort of think you have to think about it.
godot10,
Agreed. I’m hoping it is 5 years $3.5 mill (close to a few similar players the last 2 years). If he wants over $4, then you get an asset for him.
Gotta keep Smid, even give him a letter. For stay-at-home D’s, they have N Schultz and Klefbom, maybe Fedun. THe Oilers really need two more J Schultz’s (or 2008 era Whitneys)… ? Marincin eventually but then who – that’s where Hemsky / Gagner for a Bogosian / DelZotto type deal rekindles my faith in management.
This is exactly my point. My outer marker is $3.5 times 3. I think it’s too much but not by a lot and the Oilers need top 4D (and he is one).
But once we climb to $4.5M then it’s a real tough decision imo. And I like Smid!*
(just getting ahead of the inevitable.
Good idea – under 20 mil over 5 yrs, Stanley Cup rings at no charge.
Lowetide,
So what do you think about Montador? I thought a few years ago he would be a solid addition. Not sure now with the concussion stuff, but he is a clear upgrade, and makes the sting of losing Smid a tiny bit smaller. yes he is older, but he is better then what we have.
I love Smid but there is no way I’m giving him $4.5M and term. He doesn’t bring enough offense to warrant those dollars imo.
They may feel they have Schultz Sr signed for 1 more year and that gives them some leeway to move Smid if a good offer is there.
It wouldn’t be the first time they have traded Smid.
If they ship out Smid and Jack Johnson is the replacement. I think I’m out. Jerry Seinfeld.gif out.
Is Montador healthy?
They just passed on an expiring contract in Hamrlik-I can’t see them acquiring a guy with 2 more years on his deal and a concussion history. I like the player but concussions….
Doesn’t cost much to bring him in. I was going to say “send Potter out” but Potter actually had a pretty good game to my eye the other night (now I’m afraid to check the Parkatti).
Montador has played in 1 game since last Feb. He’s no longer what you call an upgrade, expect him to be in Edmonton shortly.
I was going to write something, but this is better.
I like Smid, but he’s worse than Hitler.
Potter was +9 -12 = -3 4th best Oiler on a night where CHI out attempted them 55-32.
Good eye.
To be fair, Hitler had a pretty good RelCorsi, but only because the minister appointed to stats had a terrible fear of ovens.
O Mein Gott – that wins die blog!
Ice Sage,
Thank you, and good night!
Matty throws management under the bus 3 times in one column.
The night of long knives is coming for v4.2
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Matty+Krueger+staying+behind+Edmonton/8081337/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_oilers
justDOit,
He was still a great scorer at oven strength.
Woodguy,
Yeah, just saw that…Matty is very matter of fact about Tambellini…must have heard something.
Now that’s a defense!
I wonder what everyone’s fave war films are?
OMG, it’s only the 3rd year of the rebuild according to Matty …
Dr. Strangelove.
http://youtu.be/2yfXgu37iyI
War films? Bridge on The River Kwai, Dr. Stangelove, Inglourious Basterds, Great Escape, Dirty Dozen, Full Metal Jacket, Paths of Glory, Deer Hunter.
regwald,
I’ve always considered the Whitney trade the start of the rebuild (as opposed to the re-tool that happened in 2007-09) so only three calender years have passed. However, it is now year 4 by any measure so… yeah.
The thing I don’t understand is Smid is one of the few **actually good** players on the Oilers. There’s so many players that do less than Smid. Name a random Oiler and you’ve got pretty good odds of picking one of them.
At the trade deadline, nobody is going to trade the Oilers an upgrade on Smid. If the team is going to the playoffs, they’re looking to trade picks and prospects for a player like Smid. At the deadline, the Oilers can trade away some of their less core veterans, they can trade for (or trade away) picks and prospects. But there’s no way the Oilers are going to benefit in the next few years by trading Smid at this deadline.
+ The Killing Fields, Black Hawk Down, Das Boot… that’s a lot of popcorn and Zantac
Guns of Navarone, Kelly’s Heroes are a couple more.
War movies… I liked “The Lover” (1992)
Stalag 17…Force 10 from Navarone was on the other night
For Western Cinema… Dr. Strangelove, Lawrence of Arabia, Thin Red Line, Apocalypse Now, FMJ…
delooper,
Would you do $5M with Dubnyk? There comes a point where the signing just doesn’t make sense.
This is the closest thing to an indictment of management that I have seen in the mainstream media. Some of Matheson’s reasoning is off regarding roster makeup, but he does cast blame directly at Tambellini for the mess of the current roster. Hopefully something changes and soon.
Those three are probably all in my top 20.
Always had a soft spot for Gallipoli too.
Tropic Thunder
As always, I agree with the Captain Happy.
My other favourite war movie is the one that Catch-22 should have been, but wasn’t.
Oh yeah.
This is so funny I was crying.
Sure you can’t give Smid “Pronger money” if you want your team to succeed. If you really want a killer team, you should be paying Pronger “Smid money”. Given that negotiations haven’t started, this is all premature.
Since it’s not getting any mention, I’ve always been partial to the 1956 “B” movie Attack!; a Robert Aldrich directed little gem of a movie starring a 35 year old Jack Palance, Lee Marvin and Eddy Albert giving the acting performance of a lifetime.
The Army wouldn’t touch it, unlike all the other war movies made in that most cold era so detested by modern academia.
Im a leadfarmer motherf*****
Rocknrolla,
Offer Smid $4M AAV over 5. How much would we pay for Jason Smith in inflation-adjusted dollars? That number looks about right to me.
I think you can get Smid cheap since he married a local girl and seems to like it here.
I think the Oilers want more Dmen who can pass and less “off the glass and out”.
I think that’s a good thing.
I also think they will trade for Jack Johnson and set the team back by about 3 -5 years.
I think the D looks like this next fall:
Johnson-Petry
Grebeskkov-Shultz
Shultz-Klefbom
Fistric
Much of this discussion (resigning) is predicated on the assumption that players like Smid and Gagner actually want to stay. I’d be impressed if they did, but couldn’t blame them if they wanted out of this shit show.
Castle Keep
with
Burt Lancaster is a very interesting film
Like Woodguy, I’m inclined to think Smid would like to stay. I imagine in Smid’s mind there’s some hedging going on — few people would want to stay on a team whose management is lost. And I think he’s got some reason to believe management will continue to make more than the expected number of mistakes that one might expect from a good NHL team.
Can’t believe no one’s mentioned Platoon
Thanks for reminding me of that one – forgot that Mel G was once an actor!
All this chaos, underdoggery and propaganda is fitting for the Oiler saga
Why do you hate Smid LT?
Trading Smid is dumb because we don’t need the futures we would ultimately get for him. We need real D who can play now.
Johnson is not real, nor can he play, nor is he any good.
Sign Smid, and if you want to change the deckchairs, he’s worth a heckuva lot more signed than not signed – even if he’s over paid.
But for the “stay at home defenceman”, Smid is about everything you can ask for. The man can skate. He seems near indestructible and he cares about the team. I don’t doubt that if the team wasn’t so off-balance and always wounded, he would find he has more offense in him, too.
Fine movie but Full Metal Jacket blows it away for portraying the psychosis of Vietnam. Oliver Stone was faster to market (everyone was quicker than Kubrick), won the Oscar and first-mover fame. Sheesh that Charlie Sheen was once an actor
justDOit,
EXACTLY…..Why are we even thinking about tinkering with one of the few players on our roster that fcan defend a a high level?
This is a bizzare turn of events ….
Smid is an absolute gem of a hockey player. Only bad teams trade players like him away. There’s **very few** assets out there worth what Smid brings to the Oilers and nobody is going to trade any of those assets to the Oilers for Smid. So Smid is somebody you sign. Overpay or underpay, you sign him. No team walks away from an asset like him.
Worse. Johnson has a $4.357M cap hit through 2017-18.
hunter1909,
Agreed. Out of all our problems can’t believe we are discussing losing Smid.
I really enjoyed Band of Brothers-not really a movie but still…
those already listed plus:
Duck Soup; the four feathers (korda version); Tunes of Glory; Iwo Jima; Green for Danger; life and death of colonel blimp; Lady Vanishes; Sabotage; Foreign Correspondent; The spy who came in from the cold; drums along the mohawk; Fort apache; she wore a yellow ribbon; rio grande; the two of us; the ascent
and for us canadians The 49th Parallel
oh and… not johnson… get Tyutin if you must lose Smid and acquire a jacket.
PDO is right. That’s why there’s term in my offer. If you have to trade Smid down the road because Petry or Schultz or both need raises, Smid will have more value with years remaining (barring unfortunate injury), than he does now as a rental that might choose to go UFA.
I like these lines, but what it really tells me is who is expendable. For the first time in a decade I’d say Hemsky. Second line players and above are hard to come by even when trading some one as talented as Hemsky. If he is a third line player then I see less of a problem moving him for a younger, cheaper, bigger player. Such as Nino NYI or Matthias FLP neither are worth Hemsky 1v1 but they could be bottom 6 players and might become more one day.
I have no faith the Oilers will make the right decisions on Smid, Hemsky, Gagner, Paarvi and Horcoff who they will shed for nothing. Keeping Eager, Belanger, Petrel and Whitney who are worth nothing at least to the Oilers.
I’m ok with trading Smid if you have a better replacement.
I don’t trust the Oilers to have a better replacement.
I think they see Grebs as the Smid replacement, better passing, less D at 2LD.
I don’t hate that.
I think a key reason this team gets out shot and out attempted so much is because they don’t have possession leaving the zone enough.
If they are aiming for a top 4 who can all make a good first pass, then good for them its needed.
They have miles of players who if they have the puck with speed in the neutral zone can make some offense happen.
They don’t get the puck with speed in the neutral zone enough.
I really fear what they have penciled in at 1LD.
Remember when Vis, Grebs, Gilbert, and Souray were all on the team in 09/10?
4 Dmen who could make a good first pass (some a great first pass), some who could skate it out and the only forward on the goddam team who could take a pass was Hemsky.
Now, Because Oilers, they are the opposite.
All these horses up front are dying to run, but only Petry and J.Shultz can make a good first pass and the horses are busy trying to get the puck back in the neutral zone.
Note: Whitney can make a pass and has remember his offensive instincts lately, but the man can’t pivot and will not be here next year.
The Oilers need to seriously overhaul the D to match the game of the forwards.
I really hope they don’t fuck it up Because Oilers.
If Hall is moving to centre, I hope they would damn well experiment with it before trading away Horcoff. I mean that would only make sense, wouldn’t it? Making sure you had another centre before sending one away?
And if the Oil were intent on moving him to C, wouldn’t they have done so already, instead of forcing 94 there?
I think Dellow is one of the brightest of the bloggers, but the cap has gone down, no back diving contracts means you have to save money to overpay superstars (or so the Getzlaf contract suggests), and Smid brings no scoring. None.
Godot you keep saying third pairing guys get 3 mil, but I don’t think they do. Maybe I’m wrong, show me the error of my ways. I think Smid is a good #4 so he gets 3 easy, but Schutlz and Georges only get 4. Why woul Smid get more? What is the argument? Garrison scored 16 goals and he only got 4.6.
If Smid gets even 4 I owe you a coke.
Wait, the Oilers traded Smid? When did we go from unfounded rumour and supposition to established conclusion?
Woodguy,
I think they should trade Smid in a 3 for 1 to get some additional depth at that 7th/8th place d-man position.
Awesome…and yes!?! Thought that would be first. I also will second Thin Red Line….
Guys, I think we need to be realistic about Smid. The Oilers SHOULD have signed him by now. We can hope for Hall to say something and then a late night deal in Lowe’s office, but odds are they’re going to deal him.
Stevezie: If they can get him under contract for reasonable money ($3.5M being reasonable these days) then I think Smid gives good value at that number.
Although I’m not certain how we value stay-at-home D, aside from EV+PK icetime.
Lowetide,
Fair enough, they should have signed him by now, but this does seem to be the MO for this team (waiting until the last minute for any contract that matters).
Only 1 I can think of that they waited on and signed was Hemsky.
Not their standard MO.
Renoir’s “The Grand Illusion”; Sam Fuller’s “The Steel Helmet” is money, as is “The Big Red One.” “The Thin Red Line,” sure.
Woodguy for GM.
Woodguy,
Smyth this past year.
Gagner just before arbitration
Hortichuk
Danis
(though these are clearly minor contracts)
I am sure that there are many that were signed quite early, I just don’t remember many. It seems like every case has been a dramatic last minute thriller in recent years. Petrell being the exception.
There’s very few Oilers whose signings were not preceded by panic attacks. Remember Yakupov and all the rumours that he wouldn’t sign, or after he signed, that maybe he wouldn’t show up? Edmontonians know how to maintain a high level of panic.
Kind of like the way a two/fourteen year old needs drama, whether it’s actually there or not.
While Detroit, Colorado, The Ducks, the Canes, The Bolts, the Bruins now, and so many more have been celebrating real achievements, these phony superstars from the dynasty continue to sell their increasingly irrelevant stories to whomever still gives a shit.
Woodguy, that defence in 2009 finished DFL and was the worst pk in the league two years in a row. Grebeshkov is the worst pker i have ever seen. And if he is good for offense what happened to him in the KHL?
Josh Gorges, 2nd pairing, 6 year @ $3.9 million
Brayden Coburn, 2nd pairing, 4 year @ $4.5 million
Jason Garrison, 2nd pairing, 6 year @ $4.6 million
Kevin Bieksa, 2nd pairing, 5 year @ $4.6 million
Dan Hamhuis, 2nd pairing, 6 year @ $4.5 million
Eric Brewer, 2nd pairing, 4 years @ $3.875 million
Anton Volchenkov, 2nd pairing, 6 year @ $4.25 million
Tim Gleason, 2nd pairing, 4 year @ $4 million
Z. Michalek, 2nd pairing, 5 year @ $4 million
Trevor Daley, 2nd pairing, 6 years @ $3.3 million
Jan Hejda, 2nd pairing, 3 years @ $3.25 million
Kevin Klein, 2nd pairing, 5 years @ $2.9 million
Bryan Allen, 3rd pairing, 3 year @ $3.5 million
Mark Methot, 3rd pairing , 3 year @ $3 million
Johnny Boychuk, 3rd pairing , 3 year @ $3.4 million
Nick Grossman, 3rd pairing, 4 year @ $3.5 million
Johnny Oduya, 3rd pairing, 3 year @ $3.4 million
Andy Greene, 3rd pairing, 3 year @ $3 million
Luke Schenn, 3rd pairing, only 1 unrestricted year bought, 5 years @ $3.6 million
Andrej Sekera, 3rd pairing, only 1 unrestricted year bought, 4 years @ $2.75 million
Mark Stall, 2nd pairing, only 1 unrestricted year bought, 5 years @ $3.95 million
Agreed. That top four was sensational.
Just for fun, please explain exactly how 2009 can exist in any form for 2 years in a row? This just might turn out to be the clue we’ve all been waiting for, Batman!
There is ample evidence now that the only thing that matters in the long run to winning hockey games is having the puck and shooting more than your opponents. Hitting, fighting and shot blocking have been shown to be the strengths of teams and players on their knees to the opponent, because they don’t have the puck.
It’s relatively easy. Defensemen’s primary ability should be to gain the puck in the D zone and get it out quickly in a way that gets it to the offensive zone. Any D that can’t move the puck out of the D zone by passing successfully first, or skating out and making a good play, hurts the team in the long run.
When you watch a team in the final dominate, you’ll usually see that the puck over the series is out the D zone quickly and efficiently. Wings teams, the Hawks when Keith was unbelievable the year they won, the Kings with their young guys getting to the puck first and making solid passes out of the D zone. If crushing guys with checks is the priority (instead of a consequence if you have a guy who does the clearing the zone thing well too) your team will likely play too much defense, which over the long run means lose too much. The playoffs being a long run situation.
godot10,
What is your standard for 3rd pairing? Minutes?
Some of those guys definitely qualify, but I think the average team spends less on third pairing guys. In any case I think the list shows Smid will probably get LT’s 3.5 (which is fine), though I admit a poor market might push him.
Anyone who would spend 4.5 gets what they deserve.
FastOil,
Just add a 23 year old Paul Coffey, and everyone can have themselves a drink.
Smid is third in EV TOI, 2nd in PK TOI and 3rd overall. Definitely a solid top 4D and he should have been signed by now.
Smid is worth $4M/year on a UFA contract. That puts him in the same category as these guys:
Tim Gleason
Zbynek Michalek
Robyn Regehr
Josh Gorges
J-M Lyles
He fits in fine with that category. If you go up to 4.5M/year you get:
Dan Hamhuis
Mike Komisarek
Jason Garrison
Kevin Bieksa
Niklas Kronwall
He doesn’t look as good at that price but I’m not sure the Oilers have a choice. They can’t be losing players when they should be adding players. If you look at the UFA market Smid might be the best available player.
So I think I agree with Dellow. Unless I’m trading for Burns or Tyutin I’d pay Smid 4.5M for five years.
Give Gagner 4.5M as well on a long term deal if you can, sign Paajarvi up for 2.75M and a qualifying offer to Hartikainen and there is still room under a $64M cap to add a Brent Burns type salary dump and sign a veteran forward for $3M plus, more if you can unload Belanger on someone, say Matt Cullen or Vinny Prospal. Lets say I can’t trade Belanger so I buy him out, sign Cullen
That leaves me 1.5M for a backup goaltender and my team looks something like this:
FORWARDS
Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Sam Gagner ($4.500m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
Magnus Paajarvi ($2.750m) / Ryan N.-Hopkins ($3.775m) / Nail Yakupov ($3.775m)
Ryan Smyth ($2.250m) / Shawn Horcoff ($5.500m) / Ales Hemsky ($5.000m)
Teemu Hartikainen ($0.827m) / Matt Cullen ($3.000m) / Ben Eager ($1.100m)
Mike Brown ($0.737m)
DEFENSEMEN
Brent Burns ($5.760m) / Ladislav Smid ($4.500m)
Jeff Petry ($1.750m) / Justin Schultz ($3.775m)
Nick Schultz ($3.500m) / Mark Fistric ($1.475m)
Corey Potter ($0.775m) / Oscar Klefbom ($1.275m)
GOALTENDERS
Devan Dubnyk ($3.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Eric Belanger ($0.917m)
——
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,617,708; BONUSES: $8,900,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,504,792
Any way you cut it this team needs to keep all of their good players and add two more good players. To do that everyone needs to be resigned and they have to spend to the cap. Otherwise this team won’t make the playoffs.
Well that’s the difference I’m talking about. Let’s have opinions, but isn’t Smid’s big weakness (and why he needs a “good partner”) is that he’s part of the grenade brigade? Isn’t that part of what makes the Oilers easy to play, when you know for sure what side the puck is moving forward from?
Not that he can be dispensed of, but that basically the team needs to upgrade there in the big picture?
I really don’t like saying this about the management but,
It appears they’re right back to their old timey back of media management bag of slime tricks, lol. Running poor Smid and his agent through their weird Lowe/MacT+ + style gauntlet, during what is being seen throughout anyone who has half a brain to pay attention is approaching scandalous proportions as their team is exposed as being deficient in even the basic fundamentals of any sound hockey team…you know, just like Tambellini described his future actions wayyyy back when he was first hired, maybe; except everything’s the opposite from what he promised.
Hopefully Katz is beginning to figure this out for himself. Otherwise, and if he does nothing and everything simply fucks up due to these Klowns, Katz will come out of this looking like an idiot.
And that’s something nobody wants.
i think the issue with Smid is one of deployment. he’s a second pairing D at best and should be playing fewer minutes than he does right now.
it is difficult to say that the team needs an “upgrade” on Smid, because Smid’s PK abilities are at a very high level.
more like they need to keep Smid to PK, and find someone who can play his current 5v5 minutes with more offense.
I agree with your thinking in general, but I believe you have each D pairing with a guy playing wrong side. There might be a few defensemen that do that without consequence, but three on one team? Plus Fistric and Potter are Corsi ( on their heels ) black holes of possession play. Puck chasers. My sons will do that for free. Well I’ll take a commission of course.
Hunter , no problem, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 the Oilers were bottom three in the league in penalty kill with that defence of souray vish grebs gilbert staios and smid as a 21 and 22 year old. People blamed the centers because stoll and reasoner were gone but we had horcoff and brodziak… The problem was the defence couldnt clear the net and you know, play defence…and in 2009-2010 that defence finished DFL . To think a team can be good without defensive defensemen who can skate and be physical doesnt make much sense. Especially since thats exactly what Lowe was.
I’ll worry about Smid being sent out when it happens. I think when R. Murray gets called up they’ll make a good pairing. Can’t wait to see him finally play in the Oil uniform. For this reason alone I think they keep him.
And I was happy with the Hemsky return last deadline — even if they deal Smid it is a lesson that solid players can bring nice returns.
Yes. Addition by addition, not by subtraction.
Need to free up a spot or $? Waive a goon.
Maybe the N. Schultz trade happened to replace Smid. Peckham, Fistric, and Senior should be able to clear the front of the net. These guys are cheap defence, what defensive defenseman should be. Problem is not one of them can make a pass. Smid is better than all three.
I understand we’d get more for Smid, than the other threee yahoos, but there had better be a pretty serious puckmover who can play defence acquired somehow some way. And Grebs isn’t that guy. Neither is JJ. Wait to pluck an OEL, Burns, Myers (egs) off a capped out team.
Something nice from someone cap-strapped isn’t likely to happen till after the playoffs. Smid brings almost nothing at that time, since he’d might as well go UFA and pick his destination.
As far as the Oil maybe knowing a replacement is coming, the only one I can guess is that maybe Streit wants to play for his old coach.
If he goes at the deadline, he brings nothing more than a pick. And since he’s a rental, probably a 2nd. It tells the team that you’re giving up. Which makes it difficult for me to believe Tambo would still be the GM and allowed to make the deal.
I don’t know if signing him and dealing him once cap reality hits this summer is an option as he’ll probably want an NTC if he feels like he’s giving a hometown discount.
True.
I’d argue that Smyth’s over 35 status and not being a key cog in the current team isn’t quite in the Smid class, but I’ll concede that.
I mis-typed.
It was 08/09
OIlers finished 11th in the conference, 6 points out of a playoff spot .
Souray, Gilbert and Grebs were in the top 8 in scoring on the team and Vis finished 11th despite only playing 50 games.
They didn’t have any forwards besides Horcoff and Hemsky.
POS was 3rd on the team in scoring.
It was that bad.
oilersfan,
And if he is good for offense what happened to him in the KHL?
I have no idea what happened to Grebs.
I think he’s coming because of what Bob said:
http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/2/13/3987066/grebeshkov-an-oiler-in-13-14-rumour-and-inference
Funny, a couple of people found it worthy of comment.
Here is my issue with it. The guy comes back from injury, plays a great game to help the team break a losing streak and the first comment on the following day is that he is not trustworthy because he has shifty eyes.
We are not far from declaring people witches at this point.
bookje,
I think you inferred the wrong idea on my post. I didn’t say he’s not trustworthy. It was just a random comment about all these facial and hand gestures he’s giving. I even stated in my original post that these were just post-game comments. So what is there to lie about?
Damn – missed the good part of this blog about war movies. I agree with all listed so far, but didn’t see The Devil’s Brigade!
Tyler really said $4.5M for Smid? Did he post about it anywhere? There’s not many D men anywhere making that kind of scratch. Why would Smid get it?
I also think that Horcoff makes an excellent contribution to the clubs on ice performance.
I believe he is more valuable than he is given credit for and if we are in agreement that trading Smid would be a step backwards as far team contribution is concerned then surely Horc is even more difficult to replace?
Tunes of Glory
The Charge of the Light Brigade
I have always had difficulty with the “Thin Red Line” as it takes away from real Thin Red Line which was the Argylls in the Crimea when the regiment repelled the superior numbers of Russian horse.
The red line was created by the red and white dicing on the soldiers bonnets.
The Wonderlic Thread from a few days back:
MC79HOCKEY says:
March 6, 2013 at 10:06 am
Finally, Smid. Wouldn’t surprise me if there was some sticker shock but if you look at who’s available this summer, there aren’t a lot of guys who are going to be in front of him as a UFA. Hard to see him not getting five years at $4.5MM from someone.
I wonder if a guy like Shawn Matthias would be available?
I’ve been at that point for a while; I mean, whose familiar did you think Tambellini was?
godot10,
Thanks, godot. Huh. It still seems like too much of a hike to me. No one in Smid’s range signed for anything near that last season.