MAGNUS OPUS

The Oilers rebuild needs to develop players, and this season one of the positives involves Magnus Paajarvi. Left for lost during much of last season, those Oklahoma nights seem to have paid off for the organization. How much has he progressed?

paajarvi4

Magnus Pääjärvi  10-11
  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.36 (8th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.45 (6th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 12th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 3.2 (7th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 51.6% (5th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 52.4% (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 180/8.3% (8th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 80gp, 15-19-34
  • Plus Minus: -13 on a team that was -52.
Magnus Pääjärvi  11-12
  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.75 (12th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.84 (9th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 11th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 6.6 (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 47.7% (11th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 49.9% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 79/2.5% (10th among F’s>75 shots)
  • Boxcars: 41, 2-6-8
  • Plus Minus: -7 on a team that was -26.
Magnus Pääjärvi  12-13
  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.40 (6th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.31 (8th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 14th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.5 (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 53.7% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 53.5% (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 48/12.5% (4th among F’s>20 shots)
  • Boxcars: 24, 6-2-8
  • Plus Minus: +2 on a team that is -17.

Offensively he’s back at rookie levels, and he’s really good at the CorsiRel metric (always has been). Krueger is returning Paajarvi to rookie zone start levels, and Sweet Georgia Brown the shooting percentage is 12.5! Paajarvi’s plus minus is solid, too.

  1. Should we give Ralph credit? I think so, he found a way. I’d also give the organization credit for being patient and throw Todd Nelson a nod and a wink.
  2. Should we give Magnus credit? Yes. Miles and miles and miles. He had to adjust to North American play.

Monday, I was on the Team 1260 ’roundtable’ with Darryl Porter of the Edmonton Oil Kings (smart guy). He saw Paajarvi when he was 15 and told us he was outstanding on the open ice. Porter said MPS was so fast he could simply drive wide and do a fly by and win the sortie.

Magnus Paajarvi has taken some time to adjust to the smaller ice, and the coaching lessons (like going to the net) have also taken time. The player he is today and the player he’ll become are all suggested in that rookie season.

Godpseed, Magnus. You’re almost there.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

56 Responses to "MAGNUS OPUS"

  1. BlacqueJacque says:

    Throughout Magnus’ career I’ve been most impressed with his willingness to be sent down, to learn, to be coached. When he was struggling last year, he kept a good attitude. He’s playing well this year, and didn’t let getting sent down phase him.

    Keeper.

  2. "Steve Smith" says:

    I don’t like this post, because I can’t see much room for disagreement between commenters, and I was enjoying the vitriolic blood feud developing in the last post’s comments section. Unless we can steer discussion here towards monetary policy and whether 9/11 was an inside job, I expect discussion here to be boringly civil.

    (Or unless Captain Happy steps up to explain why Pajaarvi is shaping up to be a bust, of course; but I find he typically only comes by when the most recent evidence supports his predetermined conclusions. It’s why we’ve been able to ward him off lately by mentioning Kyle Wellwood a lot.)

  3. Captain Happy says:

    Martin Brodeur working on a “Gump Worsely Hatrick”

    A goal, a shutout and just needs to get in a goalie fight.

    Oh, and, as for Magnus…how about that Kadri kid?

  4. Clay says:

    I’ve never looked, but is it common for an NHL team to have all of it’s 6 previous first round picks become NHL regulars on their own team?

    I mean, it helps when three of them are first overalls, but still…

    When the young three made their debut in 2010, I remember thinking that MPS had a chance to be the best of all three. It’s funny how perception changes.

    That said, his attention to the defensive side of the game is a real treat to watch, and I think it adds that extra dimension that ultimately will secure his place on a team loaded with offensively talented young wingers.

    Once this team is really in the hunt for Stanley, MPS will be playing a huge role as much for his defensive play as for offense.

    The much sought-after Pisani replacement.

  5. Lowetide says:

    I find the timing of SS and DSF posts in this thread to be comedy gold. GOLD!

  6. Captain Happy says:

    "Steve Smith":
    I don’t like this post, because I can’t see much room for disagreement between commenters, and I was enjoying the vitriolic blood feud developing in the last post’s comments section.Unless we can steer discussion here towards monetary policy and whether 9/11 was an inside job, I expect discussion here to be boringly civil.

    (Or unless Captain Happy steps up to explain why Pajaarvi is shaping up to be a bust, of course; but I find he typically only comes by when the most recent evidence supports his predetermined conclusions.It’s why we’ve been able to ward him off lately by mentioning Kyle Wellwood a lot.)

    I’ve never though Magnus would be a bust…I’ve always thought, once he learned to go to the net and play a more physical game, which he seems to be doing, he would morph into Jannik Hansen.

    Unfortunately, he was a top ten pick while Hansen was picked in the 9th round and there was a lot of very good players drafted after Magnus.

    I also think his current shooting percentage is a mirage…it’s about double his career average.

  7. Captain Happy says:

    Lowetide:
    I find the timing of SS and DSF posts in this thread to be comedy gold. GOLD!

    Beat me by THAT much.

  8. Lowetide says:

    They’re talking Smid for Bishop + on Hockey Central during the OTT-BOS intermission right now.

  9. Boondock says:

    Sorry for the OT rant, LT, but a comment in your post got my goat and I couldn’t let it go. Daryl Porter is a first-rate jackass and ran two WHL franchises into the ground.

    He started off in Tri-City Americans and after trying unsuccessfully relocating the team due to Kennewick being an “unsustainable hockey market”, he sold the team to local owners where they have become a success on and off the ice again. He is Tri-City’s Pocklington. http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2011/03/06/1395580/darryl-porter-dont-know-hockey.html

    After this he was granted the Chilliwack expansion franchise and after 5 years of dwindling attendance due a terrible on-ice product, incredible amounts of arrogance towards sponsors and extremely poor fan relations, he sold the team to Victoria, under the nose of two of his minority partners, who offered more than Victoria did and were rebuffed out of spite. http://www.chilliwacktimes.com/sports/Local+businesses+furious+over+treatment+Bruins/4581392/story.html

    Of course, as he was taking an offer from Victoria, he allowed the Chilliwack Minor Hockey Association to continue with their purchase of over $150k in jerseys covered in Chilliwack Bruins’ logos and choosing not to fulfill his commitment to sponsor a wing at the Chilliwack Hospital, even though he was making seven figures on the sale of the team.

    Sorry for the rant, but if you wandered across a blog praising Pocklington as a smart hockey man, you might feel the same.

  10. Ray says:

    Lowetide,

    Bishop+??? geeze shouldn’t we be looking at adding the plus to get a better LD if we are trading Smid?

    Smid+ for a signed Smid-like D who does or could score 30 points a year?

    Bishop would be a good addition but please, he only cost Ottawa a 2nd round pick he should not be the centre piece of a Smid trade

  11. Lowetide says:

    Ray: o

    Just passing it along, didn’t make the trade suggestion.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Sorry for the rant, but if you wandered across a blog praising Pocklington as a smart hockey man, you might feel the same.

    No worries, Boondock.

  13. TheOtherJohn says:

    I would not make the trade I would sign him but if SJ becomes a seller I would trade Smid+ for Dan Boyle. Very expensive next year but Boyle might like to take a lesser role on a SCF contending team as he approaches retirement

  14. Rebilled says:

    Lowetide,

    You’d trade Smid straight across for Cory A. Cross.

  15. Captain Happy says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    I would not make the trade I wouldsign him but if SJ becomes a seller I would trade Smid+ for Dan Boyle. Very expensive next year butBoyle might like to take a lesser role on a SCF contending team as he approaches retirement

    Boyle will be 37 in July and in his 40′s when the Oilers might be in contention.

    That train has sailed.

  16. "Steve Smith" says:

    Rebilled:
    Lowetide,

    You’d trade Smid straight across for Cory A. Cross.

    IS HE AVAILABLE?

  17. Boondock says:

    Lowetide: No worries, Boondock.

    Haha, thanks, I’m still a little bitter about losing my hometown team.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Rebilled:
    Lowetide,

    You’d trade Smid straight across for Cory A. Cross.

    Not true. I’d sign Smid to a deal unless the price was too dear.

  19. 42 percent body fat says:

    Captain Happy,

    werent you just praising Kadri, he is well above anything sustainable for a shooting percentage. While he may have made it on the scene in a top six role he still has a long way to go to sustain those next year. My bet is it doesnt happen. He starts getting tougher minutes and defenders (ala Eberle) and expected to contribute more defensively and he will fall off.

  20. Smarmy says:

    42 percent body fat:
    Captain Happy,

    werent you just praising Kadri,he is well above anything sustainable for a shooting percentage.While he may have made it on the scene in a top six role he still has a long way to go to sustain those next year. My bet is it doesnt happen.He starts getting tougher minutes and defenders (ala Eberle)and expected to contribute more defensively and he will fall off.

    Hmm you haven’t been around long enough to know how he works?

  21. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    They’re talking Smid for Bishop + on Hockey Central during the OTT-BOS intermission right now.

    Deal from a position that has no depth (Dmen) to address a position that is usually easily filled through FA signings.

    Because Oilers.

  22. Smarmy says:

    Woodguy:
    Mirtle has an article about the Pens using advanced stats:

    http://m.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/moneyball-ization-of-hockey-pays-off-for-penguins/article10122427/?service=mobile

    What do their stats tell them? Play Crosby a lot and when he’s tired roll out Malkin?

    What do those fancy stats tell them about Fleury?

  23. ASkoreyko says:

    Captain Happy: I’ve never though Magnus would be a bust…I’ve always thought, once he learned to go to the net and play a more physical game, which he seems to be doing, he would morph into Jannik Hansen.

    Unfortunately, he was a top ten pick while Hansen was picked in the 9th round and there was a lot of very good players drafted after Magnus.

    I also think his current shooting percentage is a mirage…it’s about double his career average.

    If they are lucky they might be able to trade him for Kassian.

    Also Kadri was drafted 3 spots ahead of MPS, so I don’t even get how you are trying to troll with that.

  24. jfry says:

    Nice article here about how Pitts uses analytical in trades.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/moneyball-ization-of-hockey-pays-off-for-penguins/article10122427/

    Woddguy is a huge proponent that individual players can’t influence save percentage. I disagree. I think this article gives us some insight into shot analysis.

    The common theme around here is that petrell should never sub for yakupov, even though petrell has a better GA/60.

    I’m suggesting that the errors that petrell commits keep the puck out of high scoring areas while yak commits larger blunders that are more easily capitalized on. Ben hogan said that he’d have more hole in ones if he aimed at the hole more instead of playing safe.

    Once yak learns to “hit the green” with regularity, he’ll slot in. Until then Krueger is happy to have petrell hit it in the trap every hole instead of risking yakupov to drive it in the water.

    I think this article and how they analyze Neal’s ability to create chances with shot quality speaks to the issue that individuals (both o and d) can influence save percentage in terms of allowed shot quality.

    And I love yak and don’t have an opinion on petrell. I just don’t think that we can look at save percentage and say anything definitive until we have a better account of shot quality metrics. My .02

  25. jfry says:

    Looks like wg beat me to the link. Go figure.

  26. Rebilled says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Lowetide,

    I don’t really think you’d trade Smid for Cross or Isbister.

    Cross and Isbister are assistant coaches for the Calgary Dinos hockey team? Maybe we could get them in a package deal..

  27. gogliano says:

    Vintage Isbister and Winchester patrolling the wings. Upgrade on this team?

    I vote yes.

  28. VanOil says:

    Magnus starting to live up to has potential is a wonderful gain for the Oilers. It not just the skill he brings to the line up but the balance he provides. With Nuge centering Hall and Eberle I think we all see a legit 1st line for the next decade. By the time Nuge hits drinking age in the US and has two repaired shoulders potentially a dominant one.

    Many commentators question our second line, specifically Gagner’s height and defensive responsibility. Magnus seems to be soothing these concerns as he is taller and more defensively responsible. This means the Oilers only have to sign the second line center they have now, not go looking for one. A major advantage given that second line centers are hard to find, just ask Vancouver who have looked for one all year with out success while willing to trade a #1 goalie and offer the player a run at the cup. Further more the stable Magnus seems to be developing a chemistry with the free radical that is Yakupov. We know Yak’s shot and passes are scary already, last night he showed a glimpse of the havoc he can cause with the body check, like he did in junior. Big tough Magnus was there to defend him and even seems to be able to take his fast ball passes.

    This line has all the tools to scare the hell out of teams, Gags can shoot 8 passed you and makes you look silly, Magnus can skate passed you and makes you look silly, Yak can knock your head off in the neutral zone, pass the puck so hard and fast you think its a magic trick and shoot the puck so hard it breaks the boards behind the net and makes you look silly.

    Basically what I am saying is Magnus is making the GM’s job very easy. The top six forwards are sorted. Don’t fuck with it.

    But please, oh please, provide a bottom 6 that does not include a few big sucking black holes and a defense that for 2 years in a row has not had Cory Potter be a good AHL callup option. Whitney is not yet making my eyes bleed with rage when he is on the game sheet like Barker did, but I feel we are spotting the other team at least two goals before the puck even drops. Anyway’s well done Mr. Magnus Paajarvi, I hope you thrill me as an Oiler for years to come.

  29. Rebilled says:

    gogliano,

    I’d vote for different vintage dudes.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Isbister and Cross in the thread! get out!

    Next you guys will be saying Smid for Passmore instead of Bishop

  31. BlacqueJacque says:

    Oh man Calgary having a terrible night in Nashville.

    Up 1-0 and then 2-1 before coming out tied 2-2 to start the second, they give up two quick goals halfway through, appear to have pulled within 1 late in the third but the goal is disallowed (goaltender interference), then Nashville strikes minutes later to make it 5-2. Iginla scores 6-on-4 to make it 5-3.

    Judging by the CP reaction, they have begun to achieve the penultimate phase of the rebuilding team – apathy. They either don’t care, out of frustration from ownership’s refusal to acknowledge the obvious, or they have just come to the realization that hope is illusory, and all that remains for the foreseeable future is grim, and dark. That is until the select few, the chosen ones, embrace ELPH.

    Kipper’s save percentage: .782 tonight, and was coming in at .876.

  32. VanOil says:

    Rebilled:
    “Steve Smith”,

    Lowetide,

    I don’t really think you’d trade Smid for Cross or Isbister.

    Cross and Isbister are assistant coaches for the Calgary Dinos hockey team? Maybe we could get them in a package deal..

    I don’t know if we need to trade for a coaches but for executives no problem. How about Lowe, MacT and Tambo for Mike Gillis or Bowman Jr. A LT 3 for 1 special.

  33. wheatnoil says:

    VanOil: I don’t know if we need to trade for a coaches but for executives no problem. How about Lowe, MacT and Tambo for Mike Gillis or Bowman Jr. A LT 3 for 1 special.

    No way Chicago makes that trade! You’ve got to sweeten the pot… maybe Stu MacGregor and MacT for Bowman Jr.?

  34. VanOil says:

    wheatnoil: No way Chicago makes that trade! You’ve got to sweeten the pot… maybe Stu MacGregor and MacT for Bowman Jr.?

    Maybe with a little help from a Yzerman ‘seen him good’!

  35. Woodguy says:

    jfry:
    Nice article here about how Pitts uses analytical in trades.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/moneyball-ization-of-hockey-pays-off-for-penguins/article10122427/

    Woddguy is a huge proponent that individual players can’t influence save percentage. I disagree. I think this article gives us some insight into shot analysis.

    The common theme around here is that petrell should never sub for yakupov, even though petrell has a better GA/60.

    I’m suggesting that the errors that petrell commits keep the puck out of high scoring areas while yak commits larger blunders that are more easily capitalized on. Ben hogan said that he’d have more hole in ones if he aimed at the hole more instead of playing safe.

    Once yak learns to “hit the green” with regularity, he’ll slot in. Until then Krueger is happy to have petrell hit it in the trap every hole instead of risking yakupov to drive it in the water.

    I think this article and how they analyze Neal’s ability to create chances with shot quality speaks to the issue that individuals (both o and d) can influence save percentage in terms of allowed shot quality.

    And I love yak and don’t have an opinion on petrell. I just don’t think that we can look at save percentage and say anything definitive until we have a better account of shot quality metrics. My .02

    Shot quality can matter to an individual player but even then its tough to extract it from the data and distinguish it from noise.

    As soon as you look at team wide stats it washes out. Even guys like David Johnson who is a big believer in shot quality concedes that team wide it just doesn’t exist because the shots come from all over and no team consistently shoots from the high percentage areas more than others in any meaningful way.

    Same can be said for preventing shots.

    Some players get to high scoring areas more often that others.

    As soon as a sample size is bigger than 10 opponents, it evens out.

    Saying IsMental prevents the “tough shots because he keeps guys to the outside” just ceases to be correct after he’s seen enough different opponents.

    Add to that the fact that Petrell’s team shoots the puck on the net 32.5% of the time when he is on the ice and Yak averages 44.1% then you’re giving up way too much to hope he keeps a guy to the outside.

    Yak’s number isn’t good and is very rookie like. Petrells is ECHL level.

  36. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    Smarmy,

    http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/2013/03/21/the-banter-gold-standard-the-last-swinger/

    That they needed to get a better back up.

    Weird how that link got in there.

    I was reading an article from 1996 on Tony Curtis that someone linked to on twitter.

    Great read.

    Obv was referring to PIT goalie situation.

  37. Bulging Twine says:

    Loving seeing Paajarvi around the net.
    He’s always around the net now!

  38. Bulging Twine says:

    I would like to see him develop his skinny legs a little more, get himself a little sturdier base. It will help him pin against the boards and drive the puck along the boards.

  39. Bulging Twine says:

    I think his legs are getting stronger though. He seems to have better small area quickness. Quicker stops and starts. He’s always had the open ice straight ahead speed of course, which is great, but I see him developing that real useful quickness now a little more. He still could use a little more of it though.

  40. jp says:

    Great to see Paajarvi (re)emerging. He’s looking like a keeper.

    The thing that struck me about his year by year numbers is his Qual Team. 12th, 11th and 14th. He’s certainly looked good lately with real NHL players as linemates.

  41. Ribs says:

    Lowetide: Not true. I’d sign Smid to a deal unless the price was too dear.

    …And then trade him!

    It’s been fun watching Paajarvis’ progress. He seems to have figured out how to be the guy doing the pushing instead of the guy being pushed, which is great news.

  42. Ducey says:

    I would like to see him develop his skinny legs a little more, get himself a little sturdier base.

    LT has a pretty solid following, although he might get more girls coming around if he worked on his legs.

    Maybe some squat thrusts? Old guys like those.

    I lost track of the number of people (LT wasn’t one of them) who would have traded MPS up until about a month ago.

  43. Maggie the Monkey says:

    LT: I don’t know if you’ve heard about this but thought that it would be of interest to you.

    http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2013/03/21/mlb_montreal_expos_rebirth_under_review.html

  44. jfry says:

    Woodguy,

    We, I’ll touch on this again tomorrow. I just got off a 14 hour travel day and don’t have the patience right now, but think that there’s some issues with the way you’re thinking about this. Ill tweet at you tomorrow.

  45. cabbiesmacker says:

    wheatnoil: No way Chicago makes that trade! You’ve got to sweeten the pot… maybe Stu MacGregor and MacT for Bowman Jr.?

    As a Hawks fan please allow me to respond. NO. I don’t want either of those boobs near my team.

    What they have might be contagious.

    Besides, MacTavish probably still hasn’t figured out who Jon Toews is.

  46. 106 and 106 says:

    LT,

    Magnus Opus? Had no idea what you were talking about:

    Opus (plural opuses or opera):

    1. A work of music.
    2. A work, especially of art.

    Does Maggi also have a great singing voice, cause then he’d fit both definitions.

  47. Woodguy says:

    jfry:
    Woodguy,

    We, I’ll touch on this again tomorrow. I just got off a 14 hour travel day and don’t have the patience right now, but think that there’s some issues with the way you’re thinking about this. Ill tweet at you tomorrow.

    Always willing to listen, I’m not the burning bush.

    On my list of bitches about the Oilers IsMental getting subbed in for Yak is way down the list.

    Rookies are rookies, and Yak has been about as raw as they come in terms of positioning.

    Amazing set of tools to work with. He’ll be something else, maybe as good as Hall.

  48. season not played says:

    They should have drafted Zach Kassian in this spot.

  49. BrazilianOil says:

    106 and 106,

    latin word: opus = work

  50. slopitch says:

    What do you guys think of going after Chris Kreider off the Rangers. He’s a 6″3 power forward LW who has struggled a bit this year so maybe the Rangers lose patience (there is massive pressure on them right now). But one thing we’ve learned in watching Magnus is that development sure isn’t predictable. Id leave him in the AHL the rest of this year but if the Oil could run the following lines next year, Id be pumped

    4-93-14
    Kreider-89-64
    91-10-83
    94-57-13

    It may cost us Hemsky to get him but Id start with picks. Just an idea…

    Oilers would do well to sign Pajarvi 4 years this summer. He should be a value contract.

  51. russ99 says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    LOL. As a Chicagoan, I can say that before this year’s incredible run by the Hawks that Bowman appeared just as much of a boob (if not more so) that those other two.

  52. slopitch says:

    Also read this on twitter, dont know if anyone else caught it

    Matias Strozyk ‏@MaStrozyk 16 Mar
    Klefbom told Värmlands Folkblad he’s been on the ice a few times w/o pain in shoulder. Might return this spring if #Oilers give permission.

  53. godot10 says:

    I doubt Paajarvi will be looking for more than a 2-year transition contract. And his cap hit won’t go up, and may go down a bit, because all of that potential 1st round bonus money that he isn’t collecting falls away.

    He has to be qualified at about $1 million. They probably sign him for 2 years @ $1.25 million per season.

    This is a case where the Oilers might want to get a two year deal done before they have to send out the QO, because in this case, if Magnus really believes in himself, he might just sign the QO, and play himself into a much bigger deal after next season.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca