NO TIME FOR SHOE SHINES

The Edmonton Oilers kids have learned their lessons and are pushing forward; the wins now are helped greatly by the 23 and under set. Although the OT loss to San Jose hurt last night (a clear win gave them a share of 8th, the OT loss puts them in an 11th place tie) this morning we face the reality: this club is basically on par with a year ago:

  • 11-12 after 29: 14-12-3, 31pts
  • 12-13 after 29: 11-11-7, 29pts

The problem for last year’s team? Games 30-40:

  • 11-12 games 31-40: 2-9-0, 4pts
  • 12-13 games 31-40: ????

SPORTSCLUBSTATS

 sportsclubstats

The recent run (3-0-2) has the Oilers looking up in terms of the playoffs, they slide ahead of Dallas by a slim margin this morning. Yesterday I said “if they can grab 10 points in their 7 games before the deadline (not too hard a task if they’re serious about making the post-season) they should arrive at the deadline in playoff contention.” After last night they need 9 points in 6 games in order to be in the range (imo) and the St. Louis game on Saturday has (as always) enormous implications.

They must do better in games 30 through 40 if they are going to be buyers at the deadline.

Yesterday, I listed the areas of need for this team, let’s look at that list again:

  • A tough forward who can play on the skill line (Brouwer family).
  • A LH 2-way defenseman (Bouwmeester family).
  • A solid goaltender who can push Dubnyk without being miscast as backup (Bishop).

It’s important to keep in mind that the jacks and kings are here, the Oilers are just looking for the 6′s and 7′s and 9′s. The Nashville Predators and the Calgary Flames can fall out of bed and run into three of these player types before grabbing a coffee at Starbucks, but the Oilers can’t find a date at a whorehouse when it comes to role players.

No time for shoe shines, hard nose the highway. It should not be this difficult.

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134 Responses to "NO TIME FOR SHOE SHINES"

  1. FrankenOil says:

    Slats has cancer:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=418686

    Best of luck to him! Guy always knew how to fill out a(n) (Oilers) roster

  2. Lowetide says:

    Read about that late last night, here’s hoping he beats. One tough prick, that Sather–and I mean that as a compliment.

  3. BrazilianOil says:

    hey LT, how was the period between 20-29 last year ?

  4. FrankenOil says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree. Could always count on him to ship out someone who didn’t fit their role. He always loved tinkering with the chemistry/make-up of the team. You could always count on Sather to make the deadline an event for Oiler fans. I can still remember the McGillis for Spaz trade. I was a big fan of McGillis, but, I was so excited to get a puck moving d-man. Man, this team could use another Janne. More Finns!

  5. DBO says:

    Who is making decisions while Slats is out? Cause I would love to try and pry some folk from the rangers. Boyle for sure, maybe Stralman as an upgrade for our 5/6 pairing (would look nice with Fistric or better yet Shultz the elder). That is a bottom of the order shuffle, but clearly needed as we are lacking depth (especially at centre and puck movers).

    I do think they can get Brouwer, but it’ll cost Hemsky (and LT, are you wiling to do it?). He is a RW, so Hemsky is bye bye to get him or to address another need. Washington has cap issues next year with Alzner getting paid and some other young guys needing money, so maybe it is prospects and picks (2nd and a Marincin or Pitlik?)

    So what gets you Brouwer (or do you wait till draft/off season to get a Clowe or Penner) and what does Hemsky get you from a team needing offense? Don’t want to deal him, and we need a LW not a RW, but he seems the likeliest piece to address our need of a top end dman. Nothing else we have will fetch that player unless they truly do feel they are close and we are willing to move a d prospect and our 1st pick. Nashville needs offense, so does Phoenix.

  6. goldenchild says:

    Tambellini/Lowe needs to go get this team a god damn NHL center. How the fuck do you think you can survive with only 3 on the roster? The injury to 10 was almost a death knell, its impossible to think that Nuge is going to be a 100% for every game here out. Belenger cant be trusted to play any important role for any length of time and good teams wouldnt count Smyth as an option. Lander and VV are not capable of helping in any way. How can these guys walk into the office everyday and think there ok in the middle? I dont fucking get it.

  7. DBO says:

    If he got Boyle from the Rangers, and swapped Hemsky for Brouwer, here is our lineup next year (or to finish the year)

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Paajarvi-Gagner-Yakupov
    Smyth-Horcoff-Brouwer
    Jones-Boyle-Brown

    A more traditional 2 scoring, 1 checking and one energy/grind line. Next year I would expect Smyth to 4 LW, with Harsky at 3LW with Horc and Brouwer (or maybe Yakupov, so the kids get baby sat by Horcoff). Less skill, more grit. Not sure I like it (would rather have Hemsky then Brouwer and find a LW), but this is what I would expect the org to go after.

  8. DBO says:

    goldenchild,

    Gotta think they call up Lander and send Harsky down. Or for fuck sakes, maybe move a dman so you aren’t sitting 2 every game, and we have an actual centre in reserve.

  9. justDOit says:

    goldenchild,

    The same can be said since Stoll, Peca and Reasoner left town. My best guess as to why the neglect down the middle, is that they’re developing a ‘flank and score’ strategy based on pressure off the wings.

    Yeah, that’s it – just you wait, NHL.

  10. goldenchild says:

    DBO: , . Or for fuck sakes, maybe move a dman so you aren’t sitting 2 every game, and we have an actual centre in reserve.

    This!

    Justdoit – They were in full tank mode the last few years so maybe it was a part of their strategy to be really awful? But then you would think they would not use the same strategy to make the playoffs. Right?

    Fuck I am still so angry about that loss and what makes me even angrier is they spent all their energy finding a goon that could skate, so after 3 months of work they end up with Brown ( who I dont hate) that played under 7 mins yesterday meanwhile 14 your top scorer last year is playing shifts with a 37 year old Ryan Smyth in the middle. And you still havent figured out what to do with those bottom 4 D. Priorities?

  11. pboy says:

    I was at the game last night and I had forgotten how much I hate everything about going to that building. Between the traffic to and from the game, the shitty parking lot, the unbelievable clusterfuck of trying to walk out of the building and the seat sizes that remind me of Fenway Park…..hey, at least they blew a 3-1 third period lead.

    Ryan Jones cheats for offense so much it’s almost unbelievable to watch. His legs are constantly moving, so it looks like he’s accomplishing a lot but he reminds me of some asshole with his foot on the gas but the car’s still in neutral. I think that he’s totally throwing Eberle off of his game. #14 had no chance last night playing with Jones and an out of his depth Smytty. Ryan Smyth did work his ass of last night and in the 3rd period, both Gagner and him were double shifted for a stretch and you could see how exhausted Ryan was everytime they went to a tv timeout.

    Does anyone know what happened to Horcoff in the 3rd when he disapeared for a little bit? Equipment malfunction, maybe? theCaptainshawnhorcoff played a solid game and it was nice to hear him get cheered at home for once.

    I don’t know if they showed it at home but at one point (I can’t remember if it was in the 2nd or 3rd) Joe Thornton rubbed Gagner out in the corner and then Jumbo Joe went to change. Gagner got up and while he was skating to the Oiler’s bench, he made a beeline for Thornton and crosschecked him from behind into the open door at the SJ bench. It was fantastic.

    Ryan Whitney was horrible all night and he had a really rough time with his footspeed. They need to get whatever they can for him at the deadline and cut their losses.

    Schultz the Younger looked gassed by the middle of the 2nd period. That kid needs some rest but he isn’t going to get it until the off season.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Western Conference

    CHICAGO 0.85
    ANAHEIM 0.828
    LOS ANGELES 0.621
    MINNESOTA 0.621
    ST LOUIS 0.586
    VANCOUVER 0.586
    SAN JOSE 0.552
    DETROIT 0.550
    ——————————
    PHOENIX 0.500
    DALLAS 0.500
    COLUMBUS 0.500
    EDMONTON 0.500
    CALGARY 0.481
    NASHVILLE 0.467
    COLORADO 0.448

    Looks like the separation is happening right at 8th.

    SJS is the one team I think could fall out. They should have killed the Oilers last night with only 2C and the Oilers had a 3-1 lead in the 3rd.

    They are not playing well at all.

    CAL, NAS, and COL have probably given up the dream and preparing to sell off what they want.

    Eastern Conference

    PITTSBURGH 0.742
    MONTREAL 0.741
    BOSTON 0.732
    OTTAWA 0.633
    WINNIPEG 0.567
    TORONTO 0.567
    CAROLINA 0.552
    NY RANGERS 0.552
    ————————————
    NEW JERSEY 0.533
    NY ISLANDERS 0.500
    PHILADELPHIA 0.450
    TAMPA BAY 0.450
    BUFFALO 0.433
    WASHINGTON 0.431
    FLORIDA 0.367

    More of a dogfight for the last spot in the East.

    CAR might fall out. Faulk and Corvo is still not too close to coming back. Ward is out, but Ellis’ SV% is .925 while Ward is .908

    I got WIN to win the division at +600 two weeks ago and hit it. :)

    PHI,TBY,BUF,WAS,FLA all have no chance, so they are probably in sell mode too.

    We are hearing “Everyone thinks they have chance, there’;s no player movement”

    In reality I see 8 teams that already know there is no hope and probably 2-3 more will join them by April 1st.

    Contrary to what everyone is saying trade deadline day/week will be active. Lots of teams with lots to sell.

  13. cabbiesmacker says:

    DBO:

    I do think they can get Brouwer, but it’ll cost Hemsky (and LT, are you wiling to do it?). He is a RW, so Hemsky is bye bye to get him or to address another need. Washington has cap issues next year with Alzner getting paid and some other young guys needing money, so maybe it is prospects and picks (2nd and a Marincin or Pitlik?)

    You sly bugger. You threw Pitlick into the equation after the word “prospect.” I saw what you did there.

    pros·pect
    [pros-pekt]
    noun
    1. an apparent probability of advancement, success, profit, etc.

    b. the outlook for the future: good business prospects.

    2. anticipation; expectation; a looking forward.

    3. something in view as a source of profit.

  14. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    SAN JOSE 0.552
    DETROIT 0.550
    ——————————
    PHOENIX /DALLAS/COLUMBUS/EDMONTON 0.500

    Those lost 3rd period two goal leads to the two must vulnerable teams may have been the Oilers only playoff games this year.

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    Troy Brouwer – WAS acquired from CHI for 1st round pick Philip Danault – 26th overall

    Jay Bouwmeester – CAL acquired negotiating rights from FLA for Jordan Leopold and 3rd round pick (Josh Birkholz). Signed as UFA to 5 year, $33 million contract.

    Ben Bishop – OTT acquired from STL for 2nd round pick – 2013 Draft (TBD)

    In other words, to satisfy this fan base’s definition of a ‘rebuild,’ coming out of the lockout, Tambellini should have dealt away our 1st and 2nd round picks in this year’s draft and signed the biggest FA D on the market (Ryan Suter?). It’s not that hard…

    Honestly, what part of building through the draft is so hard for this fanbase to understand? The goal is not to prime the team for one small competitive window. The goal is to stock an organization with a viable prospect base, so a team can contend year in and year out. Please stop with all this Adam Hall, Roman Hamrlik, Brian Boyle, etc. retread acquisition blarney.

    I swear the only thing worse than trying to stay patient through a rebuild, is putting up with the fans with zero patience.

  16. DBO says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Yep, I’m sneaky like a fox!

    At some point we need to move some of these “prospects” while they can still be called that. Guys like Plante, even Teubert, are no longer prospects but are now longshots and have little to no value. But guys still on entry level deals have a chance if you sell their “5 tools” like Pitlick. If Pitlick and a 2nd got you Brouwer, and it meant either someone plays off wing or you then have depth (a crazy idea) to make a move to address another need, you do it without worrying about whether Pitlick turns into Brouwer in 4 years (that is his ceiling, so why wait when you can get the finished product).

    We have a glut of prospects nearing the AHL level (on D alone we have Marincin, Musil, Gernat, Klefbom, Davidson all AHL eligible next year), and it makes no sense to have an all rookie lineup in the minors. Use some of that depth to help address the NHL depth issue. It can’t be that hard dammit.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Good to see we are back to riding Horcoff like a mule, with another year of no one to help him out. At least he has decent linemates this year.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    DBO,

    Dont know what happened to Pitick seems like has all the tools but cant find a toolbox to put them in. Great speed. Finish need work. Still hoping he will be a late bloomer and can carve a 3rd line role but hope is fading.

  19. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy,

    After losing Suter the optics of selling will be crushing for the franchise. I’m not sure they sell unless the situation is indeed hopeless.

  20. cabbiesmacker says:

    DBO,

    Hey I’m all for trying to move assorted jetsam for actual NHL players that add depth but I don’t think there are 29 other GM’s stupid enough to help the Oilers out there.

    Second rounders should definitely be in play based on how well Mediocre Bastard Stu has done with those. Sheesh. In fact anything lower than the third OV looks to be a reach for this management bunch based on the past 2 – 3 years.

    It’s going to be really interesting to see how Mediocre and his team perform without an obvious 1 OV or “can’t F this up even if we take the wrong guy scenario.” They haven’t been there for three years.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Genjutsu:
    Woodguy,

    After losing Suter the optics of selling will be crushing for the franchise. I’m not sure they sell unless the situation is indeed hopeless.

    When I say “sell” its more clearing out guys with expiring contracts that they don’t want to re-sign.

    Turning expiring contracts into something….anything….is pretty standard at trade deadline time.

  22. Ducey says:

    It’s important to keep in mind that the jacks and kings are here, the Oilers are just looking for the 6′s and 7′s and 9′s. The Nashville Predators and the Calgary Flames can fall out of bed and run into three of these player types before grabbing a coffee at Starbucks, but the Oilers can’t find a date at a whorehouse when it comes to role players.

    No offense LT, but this meme you keep throwing out is just wrong.

    You use it as a justification for the team needing to trade part of its future to make push now. I think that that would be a mistake.

    You have Eberle and Hall as the kings. The rest (Nuge, Yak, Schultz jr, maybe MPS) are just princes right now. Nuge will be great but he isn’t doing that well this year. These guys are not ready to consistently control a game for three periods and have huge amount of development ahead of them.

    Where are the Kings and Queens on defense? I like Petry plenty but he is going thru the growing pains of a guy with just 110 games in the NHL and just few games in the AHL. Shultz Jr is a rookie and is now acting like it. Smid has taken a step back (I wilsh he would stop trying to cover the puck in front of the net) and the rest are 6′s and 7′s.

    I get that they could have a better supporting cast but frankly, other than Petrell (I am confounded what they see in him) the group they have was pretty reasonable to start the year.

    The problem continues to be a young team that makes bad mistakes, takes periods off, tries to make the amazing play and often doesn’t have enough strength. The problem is that they are missing a Doughty, a Suter, or any semblance of a number 1 D. They also need a power forward.

    There are about 25 other teams who would like a #1 D and/ or power forward. They cost a lot.

    I would be pretty pissed off if they give up their #1 and Marincin (or even just one of those) for someone like Boumeester. There is no guarantee that he will get them into the playoffs – in fact unless they bring in Larry F ing Robinson it seems pretty remote (they have to go 13-6 for cripes sakes). AND they cut off the rebuild. Their #1 pick could be that future power forward or #1 D. Marincin has a chance to be special (a 6′ 5″ offensive defensemen with a mean streak). .

    The goal has to be to win the Cup. If you are willing to give up your future for a lesss than 50%chance to make the playoffs, you are no better than Calgary. It just smacks of impatience.

    A year or so ago they asked Babcock about the rebuild. He said “if you get too good too fast, you don’t get good enough”.

    True that.

    Give me a few college free agents, trade away a few spare pieces (or even Hemsky) for some future, have a great draft, and then I am right there with you calling for additions come July, but not right now.

  23. jonrmcleod says:

    Hey, after the 6-0 loss to Nashville, all of us would have been more than happy if we were told the Oilers would go 3-0-2 over the next five games. Yes, it’s frustrating that the Oilers lost 2 games in which they were leading by 2 goals, but it would have been more frustrating to be a fan of the Stars last night–at least the Oilers didn’t lose in regulation. The bright side.

  24. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Troy Brouwer – WAS acquired from CHI for 1st round pick Philip Danault – 26th overall

    Jay Bouwmeester – CAL acquired negotiating rights from FLA for Jordan Leopold and 3rd round pick (Josh Birkholz). Signed as UFA to 5 year, $33 million contract.

    Ben Bishop – OTT acquired from STL for 2nd round pick – 2013 Draft (TBD)

    In other words, to satisfy this fan base’s definition of a ‘rebuild,’ coming out of the lockout, Tambellini should have dealt away our 1st and 2nd round picks in this year’s draft and signed the biggest FA D on the market (Ryan Suter?). It’s not that hard…

    Honestly, what part of building through the draft is so hard for this fanbase to understand? The goal is not to prime the team for one small competitive window. The goal is to stock an organization with a viable prospect base, so a team can contend year in and year out. Please stop with all this Adam Hall, Roman Hamrlik, Brian Boyle, etc. retread acquisition blarney.

    I swear the only thing worse than trying to stay patient through a rebuild, is putting up with the fans with zero patience.

    The problem with the OIlers are these players:

    THEO PECKAM
    COREYPOTTER
    RYANSMYTH
    MIKEBROWN
    RYANWHITNEY
    RYANJONES
    ERICBELANGER
    BENEAGER
    LENNARTPETRELL
    DARCYHORDICHUK

    The bottom pairings and bottom part of the roster are a disaster on this team.

    The only “tough” piece they are missing is 1LD, but a capable 2/3LD would suffice for this year.

    The Oiler management shit the bed entirely on the easiest parts to get.

    They got most of the hard parts through the draft.

    Whenever I hear that the fanbase should be more patient, I just shake my head/.

    6 years out of the playoffs and they have the team to get there this year if they had a clue about players that the easiest to acquire.

    Watch Tambellini buy out two players next year that he signed.

    Watch Tambellini send 2 vets to the minors this year that he signed.

    Watch Tambellini not pick up Hall off waivers to help out the 4C situation because they are at 49 contracts and can’t afford to be full going into college free agent season.

    Watch Tambellini the 50 man roster be packed with Eager, Hordichuck, Abney and tie his hands on actually helping his team.

    There is no patience for Incompetence.

  25. dangilitis says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree with almost everything you are saying, but I am really curious about how Smyth plays when he is given an opportunity to play LW, with guys not named pretty much everyone above on your list. Has anyone analyzed those stats? He is obviously not good enough to make his line successful on his own merit (but Hall is just about the only one I can see who is capable of that), but I think it seems quite rash to call him “the problem” (again, you might have looked into what I asked already, but by my eye, it is hard to play good hockey with bad linemates)

    Speaking of which, did you notice how Yak was really going for it in the 3rd period with that great shift where he nailed everything and created space for his teammates, and then got plastered to the bench, only to watch Petrell-Brown-Smyth give up the 3rd goal? I know my earlier comments about Smyth may seem hypocritical as he lost the battle, but he won many others that night, and it was the placement of the other 2 forwards that left the line vulnerable for a Wengels goal.

  26. delooper says:

    justDOit:
    goldenchild,

    The same can be said since Stoll, Peca and Reasoner left town. My best guess as to why the neglect down the middle, is that they’re developing a ‘flank and score’ strategy based on pressure off the wings.

    Yeah, that’s it – just you wait, NHL.

    The traditional big skilled centre is both rare and expensive. So if you can develop an alternative strategy to win, it would be cheaper and more sustainable in a cap world. So maybe there’s a smidge of truth there.

  27. Ducey says:

    Woodguy,

    I don’t have a ton of confidence in management either but I disagree regarding the players you mention.

    The Oilers have had a horrible time with injuries on D for the last few years. Now they suddenly are idiots because they have too many?

    Jones and Smyth are good 3rd or 4th line players. Brown has been a good addition. Coming out of 29th you give guys like Eager, Whitney and Belanger a chance to see if they can work thru things. Hordichuk was always a waste but I bet they had Semenko in their saying they needed to protect the kids. He hardly caused them to miss the playoffs. There are exactly zero teams in the NHL that don’t have 4 or 5 Abneys (guys who will never make it).

    You can reasonably hate managment (its evident you do) but their incompetence in the past has nothing to do with what the right course of action should be now.

    If the Oilers appointed a new GM tomorrow. What should he do? I am thinking he looks at the situation and says, “you know what, this team is not really making the playoffs. We will continue to build for next year and beyond.” That would be the right decision. The wrong decision would be to make moves because the fanbase is impatient or fed up with the previous administration.

  28. Gino says:

    IMO this summer will be a good time to lock up Magnus Paajarvi for a minimum five years and have him be a part of the top 6 moving forward.
    This guy is becoming a stud and is showing his leadership on the ice with his work at both ends of the ice.

    Woodguy:

    The problem with the OIlers are these players:

    THEO PECKAM
    COREYPOTTER
    RYANSMYTH
    MIKEBROWN
    RYANWHITNEY
    RYANJONES
    ERICBELANGER
    BENEAGER
    LENNARTPETRELL
    DARCYHORDICHUK

    I agree except with Smyth not playing LW it kind of makes it difficult to throw him under the bus with the above.

  29. nelson88 says:

    Woodguy: The problem with the OIlers are these players:THEO PECKAMCOREYPOTTERRYANSMYTHMIKEBROWNRYANWHITNEYRYANJONESERICBELANGERBENEAGERLENNARTPETRELLDARCYHORDICHUKThe bottom pairings and bottom part of the roster are a disaster on this team.The only “tough” piece they are missing is 1LD, but a capable 2/3LD would suffice for this year.The Oiler management shit the bed entirely on the easiest parts to get.They got most of the hard parts through the draft.Whenever I hear that the fanbase should be more patient, I just shake my head/.6 years out of the playoffs and they have the team to get there this year if they had a clue about players that the easiest to acquire.Watch Tambellini buy out two players next year that he signed.Watch Tambellini send 2 vets to the minors this year that he signed.Watch Tambellini not pick up Hall off waivers to help out the 4C situation because they are at 49 contracts and can’t afford to be full going into college free agent season.Watch Tambellini the 50 man roster be packed with Eager, Hordichuck, Abney and tie his hands on actually helping his team.There is no patience for Incompetence.

    I disagree. As Ducey states above the goal should be to win the cup and the Jack and Kings are still too young to reasonably be expected to drive the bus. The supporting case my not be great but they are not the “problem”. Like every other fan I would like to see the Oilers make the playoffs this year but are they really that far behind your expectations at the start of the year? If everything broke right most of us expected them to perhaps sneek into the playoffs. It hasn’t (Whitney, Horcoff injury, etc.) and they are on the bubble with 20 games left. Seems about right to me.

  30. nelson88 says:

    what Ducey said; but more eloquently, while i was typing….;)

  31. bookje says:

    Ducey,

    Even as a supporter of the rebuild and patience approach, I think its quite concerning that the Oilers Management has not managed to snag a single player who has overachieved their expected value, with most turning out to underachieve (Eager, Hort, Belanger, etc.). Good GMs find the “Jason Smiths’ out there to fill out their lineups.

  32. denny33 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Sydney Crosby was taken 1st overall in the 2005 NHL draft. Penguins fans had to ENDURE 18 months before they ( 2006-2007 )finished 2nd in the Atlantic – 3rd overall in the East..

    Fanbase…What about the local media? What about the National media?

    It has been half a decade?

    Are you a Cubs fan?

  33. Ducey says:

    bookje:
    Ducey,

    Even as a supporter of the rebuild and patience approach, I think its quite concerning that the Oilers Management has not managed to snag a single player who has overachieved their expected value, with most turning out to underachieve (Eager, Hort, Belanger, etc.).Good GMs find the “Jason Smiths’ out there to fill out their lineups.

    Sure. They should fire managment then. But that is a totally different issue than what should be done on the player front at the deadline.

    I couldn’t see Ken Holland (if he just took over the Oilers) trading his #1 pick for the 15% chance he might make the playoffs.

    And to be fair, its fairly evident that they brought in Belanger, Eager, Hordichuk and Petrell to fill some uniforms during the dark years. The last thing they wanted were guys who were going to bump them up the standings.

    The good moves this year – Brown and Fistric being brought in, Eager and Hordichuk getting farmed, maybe don’t happen last year. They are cause for some slight optimism.

  34. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy: The problem with the OIlers are these players:

    THEO PECKAM
    COREYPOTTER
    RYANSMYTH
    MIKEBROWN
    RYANWHITNEY
    RYANJONES
    ERICBELANGER
    BENEAGER
    LENNARTPETRELL
    DARCYHORDICHUK

    The bottom pairings and bottom part of the roster are a disaster on this team.

    The only “tough” piece they are missing is 1LD, but a capable 2/3LD would suffice for this year.

    The Oiler management shit the bed entirely on the easiest parts to get.

    They got most of the hard parts through the draft.

    Whenever I hear that the fanbase should be more patient, I just shake my head/.

    6 years out of the playoffs and they have the team to get there this year if they had a clue about players that the easiest to acquire.

    Watch Tambellini buy out two players next year that he signed.

    Watch Tambellini send 2 vets to the minors this year that he signed.

    Watch Tambellini not pick up Hall off waivers to help out the 4C situation because they are at 49 contracts and can’t afford to be full going into college free agent season.

    Watch Tambellini the 50 man roster be packed with Eager, Hordichuck, Abney and tie his hands on actually helping his team.

    There is no patience for Incompetence.

    Further to Ducey’s comments, the ‘problem with the Oilers’ is much of the supposed Aces/Kings are still developing and until they do, this team will struggle. A better bottom six WOULD help in the short term, but dealing our youth/picks or picking other teams’ retreads off the waiver wire is NOT the solution for viable long-term competitiveness.

    IMO there a lot of very vocal pundits in this fanbase who thrive on second guessing and revisionist history.

    Of the players you cite above, it’s worth a mention that Smyth, Jones, Potter, Belanger, and to a lesser extent, Whitney were all lauded as solid acquisitions by the majority of posters here when first acquired. Further, I would emphasize that Tambellini did not want to sign Belanger but only did so at Renney’s insistence (as Oil Change revealed). It’s quite possible the same applies to Potter. But this is the beauty of being the armchair GM isn’t it? Not every acquisition will trend favourably and it’s oh so easy to act like we knew better when the actual amount of prescient prognostication is vary scant. And let’s be fair, when folks like LT are crying for the team to sign everyone, eventually they’re going to get the odd one right like Winnik.

    In one breath, Oiler fans pine for the likes of Hamrlik, Adam Hall, while on the other hand constantly criticizing the team’s lone waiver pickup Ryan Jones. This is what’s know as trying to have your cake and eat it too.

    I’m going to park Hordichuk, Eager and Brown for the moment as my sense is you don’t agree with that player type, so it’s pointless attempting to defend management’s actions there with that bias in mind. That leaves Peckham and Petrell. 2 players the org has drafted and is hopeful they can either develop or trade for assets. I would tend to agree with those that feel these are players not worth further development effort, but that said, am hard pressed to see why these two players that are truly ‘on the fringe’ are A) Fireable offenses for management / proof of incompetence & B) the difference between this club contending or not.

    LT’s comments insinuate that acquiring players on his ‘wishlist’ like Brouwer, Boowmeester, Bishop, is not the hard part. This assertion is made with not one shred of proof that A) these players are in play B) that the Oilers are in the conversation vs. other suitors & C) that the price being asked would not involve either one of the young core or a significant pick.

    Improving your bottom 6 makes your team marginally better while worsening your draft position when the team still requires 2 major bullets at C and D and G is still a question mark at least from a playoff perspective. Perhaps I would respect the alleged competency of pundits more if A) they had a viable plan to address the latter in conjunction WITH a plan to address the former. Doing either in isolation is white noise.

    There are numerous reasons to second guess management’s competency A) a suspected lack of due diligence in vetting player injuries B) dithering on roster transactions C) inability to sign a ‘money’ goalie D) length, term, and questionable timing of certain contracts, but that is not what occupies the bulk of time in Oiler land. Instead, it’s cries to sign fringe player X, Y and Z and then screams of protest when fringe player X,Y and Z provide proof of why they were expendable in the first place. It’s a bit like listening to the wife’s plans for picking up new paint and wallpaper when the foundation is still cracked and the roof is leaking.

  35. denny33 says:

    Ducey,

    Can any team besides Ottawa and Florida complain about injuries….take a look at Ottawa and then say the Oilers are where we are because of injuries.

    We can’t use the injury excuse….

    Winnipeg Jets defenceman Tobias Enstrom was leading the league in scoring for a defenceman until his injury. He has been gone for a few weeks….Winnipeg is still winning.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Myself I’m a big fan of Saint Dominic’s Preview… but I think the most apt Van song for the Oil is got to be

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWlabVLC_70

    “You don’t pull no punches, and you don’t push the river, no, no
    Goin’ as much with the river as not”

  37. rickithebear says:

    delooper: The traditional big skilled centre is both rare and expensive

    Yeah For Jujhar

    bookje: ood GMs find the “Jason Smiths’ out there to fill out their lineups.

    Only after after high end drafts have replenished the bare cupboards. then you target players who help you win!
    bringing in a GM who never lost a trade, to pro scout for us.
    works.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Once more… not picking up Hamrlik and Hall mean incompetence.

    This team continues to fuck up no brainer decisions.

  39. russ99 says:

    Also, considering the overall subpar group in OKC, is 50 contracts the issue that some make it out to be?

    This can be the only excuse that the Oilers refuse to use waivers, though the financial hit and significant future chance of having to waive the player acquired may have something to do with it.

    I’m over my angst from management re-signing Potter, Peckham, Petrell, Hordichuk, Plante, VandeVelde, Danis and maybe Smyth this summer instead of bringing in better playoff-quality secondary help, but it better not happen again this summer.

    To me the real challenge at the deadline is to either sign or acquire good value for Smid and Gagner and get something decent for Whitney – where we don’t hamstring our cap room this summer to make those key secondary player moves.

  40. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Ducey,

    They’ve finished loading up the dirigible so now they’re throwing the ballast overboard. But one wants to know if they can fly this thing. Oh the Humanity.

  41. Ducey says:

    denny33:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Sydney Crosby was taken 1st overall in the 2005 NHL draft. Penguins fans had to ENDURE 18 months before they ( 2006-2007 )finished 2nd in the Atlantic – 3rd overall in the East..

    You sort of left out a few important points.

    The Pens also drafted 5th overall in ’02 (Whitney), 1st overall in ’03 (Fleury), 2nd overall in ’04 (Malkin). They also picked 2nd overall in 2006 (Staal).

    Seems to me the Oilers have taken Hall, Nuge and Yak. Using your Pens model we should be tanking for one or two more drafts.

    You also may want to take into account the fact the Pens lucked out and got two generational talents (Crosby and Malkin). The Oilers have talent but not at this level.

  42. Captain Obvious says:

    Not using the waiver wire to pick up effective stopgaps is a dramatic failure. This team has been icing below average AHL players at center for much of the year while letting freely available talent like Blair Jones and Adam Hall walk right by. This is inexplicable and indefensible. These players cost nothing and it has cost the Oilers multiple games in the standings.

    Regarding Bouwmeester, while I usually agree with Woodguy, if you are going by advanced stats this is exactly the player we don’t need because he doesn’t have good advanced stats. Sure, he plays tough minutes, but, and this is very important, he doesn’t do particularly well in those minutes. Talking about “tough minutes” is shorthand for correcting for context, similar to park factors in baseball. I haven’t run the numbers for this year, but last season was you corrected for context Bouwmeester still didn’t come out particularly well. He’s a useful player but nowhere near the top echelon of NHL defensemen and worthy neither his salary nor his cost in trade.

    Advanced stats should be used to identify under appreciated players and Bouwmeester’s reputation significantly exceeds his established value.

  43. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “Using your Pens model we should be tanking for one or two more drafts.”

    Ducey,

    Using the Pens model some D like Orpik and Whitney would have a headstart before the elite forwards were drafted.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    Captain Obvious:
    his team has been icing below average AHL players at center for much of the year while letting freely available talent like Blair Jones and Adam Hall walk right by.This is inexplicable and indefensible.These players cost nothing and it has cost the Oilers multiple games in the standings.

    So you say. Who’s to say these players don’t simply become another Belanger or Jones while eating up your contract / roster flexibility?

    I hope every team in the league has gotten the memo about Jones and Hall. Hard to believe so many squads are willing to pass over these immediate impact players.

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Thinking again about Hall (Adam) and the 50 man.

    Was this excuse ever used by anyone officially, unofficially, or otherwise?

    i.e., are we just guessing that they decided the 50 man roster excused them from putting in on Hall?

    Is it not equally possible that their decision making process never even got that far? Maybe suggesting they have a reason (even a bad one) for not picking up Hall is giving them too much credit?

  46. eidy says:

    The Oilers are 60% of the way through the season and continue to be outshot/outchanced in almost all of the games. That is not a recipe for success with a young goaltender/defense trying to hold the fort. I just don’t see it as very likely that they squeak into the playoffs.

    They bet and were wrong on eager, whitney, Khabibulin, belanger. Our pro scouting evaluation consists of remembering what they were in there draft years instaed of what they are now. Jones is what he is and that goal last night might have made him more appealing for other teams, so I count that as a win. The management team is just not good enough to get us to the next level and if there is a silver lining it is that the mangement team of tambellini and hopefully lowe will move on. Then they should look outside the organization and not to howson for direction.

    As much as there is all this talk of having to add a big powerforward, more of the issue is our defense. I have enjoyed watching Hemsky for years, but I would consider moving him to address this need. A 1D is more important to this team now and going forward than Hemsky is.

    I hope regardless of whether we are fighting for a playoff spot or not, we unload/upgrade as many of whitney, belanger, peckham, petrell, and jones as we can. As of right now, most nights Kreuger is geting off the bus with the inferior team and that is not a recipe for success

  47. Captain Obvious says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Being better than VDV is an impact. The Oilers have the worst roster in the league. Every player on the waiver wire would be an improvement.

  48. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “Maybe suggesting they have a reason (even a bad one) for not picking up Hall is giving them too much credit?”

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Your evaluation of anybody is going nowhere when you start with the premise that that anything good or bad they do is unmoved by good or fallacious reasoning.

    Just because someone in management needs to be replaced it doesn’t follow that their current decision is bad or irrational. Willis had an excellent take on the actual decision at hand.

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/3/15/should-the-edmonton-oilers-claim-adam-hall-off-waivers

  49. Ducey says:

    Not using the waiver wire to pick up effective stopgaps is a dramatic failure. This team has been icing below average AHL players at center for much of the year while letting freely available talent like Blair Jones and Adam Hall walk right by. This is inexplicable and indefensible. These players cost nothing and it has cost the Oilers multiple games in the standings.

    If thats a dramatic failure, I don’t know what words you would use to describe the O’Reilly offer sheet had COL not matched.

    I thought Blair Jones might be worth a flyer as a younger player who put up some points in junior Maybe he could turn into something useful. He is not likely to help much now. Adam Hall is useless. He can’t even manage a shot a game.

    The difference between one of these guys and a Smyth or Belanger is maybe 1/2 a shot a game either way. ie negligible.

    To bring it back to LT’s theme, if we are short 6,7 and 9′s, why are we worrying about the 2′s?

  50. Lowetide says:

    A quick item. I listed “Bouwmeester family” and “Brouwer family” meaning players from that family of players: 2-way defenders and tough winger with some skill. You can pick other names, and in fact these guys ARE available: Hamrlik was on waivers, I do believe Brouwer is available if not then check down to Joel Ward.

    I did list Ben Bishop because imo he is or will be available when Anderson returns. The Oilers HAD the Brouwer when Glencross was here–as Seinfeld would say “you can take the reservation but you can’t KEEP the reservation.”

    The Oilers have one guy who looks like he can play a 3line role on the current roster when this team is ready to push–Paajarvi.

    Shameful.

    And they are available.

  51. TheOtherJohn says:

    LT MPS’ performance/progress makes me wonder?? hope that he may be able to push up the roster onto the 2nd line. If so, one less big body we need to acquire.

    If I am wrong I am with you when we are a SCF contender MPS will be a very good 3LW

  52. Factotum says:

    Outlook from sportsclubstats.com this morning:

    If Oilers end season with 56 Points (12-4-3 the rest of the way), 99.8% chance of playoffs.
    If 55 pts. (12-5-2), 98.4%
    If 54 pts. (11-5-3), 92.9%
    If 53 pts. (11-6-2), 79.6%; (10-5-4) 76.8%

    Hope springs, but given the holes in the roster, I’m afraid I’m not buying..

    March 12: “Whether you’re in the playoffs or not, if you can upgrade your team or improve it, we’ll do that, but most of the people here are the people we’re going to be counting on for some time,” Tambellini said. “You’re not going to give up youth just for a quick fix there, that’s for sure.”

    The problem is we know that this isn’t true; they’ve repeatedly passed on making *small* improvements that could have been made without sacrificing anything from the young core. Two recent examples from the waiver wire:
    1. Roman Hamrlik (make room by waiving Potter or Peckham – who really cares at this point? Neither of them is good enough to be in the top 7 on a winning team.)
    2. Improve depth at C with Adam Hall and send down Hartikainen

    I could be wrong, but I find it hard to believe that Hamrlik wouldn’t be at least the 6th best (and probably 5th best) d-man on the team right now and that Hall wouldn’t be the 5th best (and probably 4th best) center on the depth chart – right now, even if Belanger and Lander were healthy. (For that matter, do the Oilers *really* have 8 d-men that are better than Brett Clark? Really?)

    These wouldn’t have been earth-shattering moves by any stretch, but wouldn’t have cost much of anything, either, and would have made the roster incrementally better. And let the players know that you actually mean what you say.

    It’s hard for management to look serious about having a playoff team when you create the situation where the coach has to send out a lineup with *two* centers in a crucial game against the 8th place team. And don’t get me started on Petrell – it’s all been said already.

    If the problem is not having enough flexibility because of the 50-contract limit, couldn’t an expiring contract (e.g. Alex Plante or *somebody*) have gone the other way in the Mike Brown trade? Isn’t the number of contracts on the list of things that the general manager is supposed to, you know, manage?

    I don’t get it. Headpiece filled with straw….

    **Edit: I see that others raised some of the same points while I was writing this. Apologize for redundancy.**

  53. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “The Oilers have one guy who looks like he can play a 3line role on the current roster when this team is ready to push–Paajarvi”

    Lowetide,

    And his Finnish half is starting to emerge.

    In retrospect we should have expected a converted D who cheats for defense to need a lot of experience to learn when to be first man back and when to plug up the front of the crease. Not an easy task but he has the required speed and work ethic. The experience and confidence is starting to come into view.

  54. Captain Happy says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Ducey,

    They’ve finished loading up the dirigible so now they’re throwing the ballast overboard. But one wants to know if they can fly this thing. Oh the Humanity.

    LOL.

    Were you referring to the crash of the Hindenberg or the WKRP episode?

    In any event, damn funny.

  55. Bag of Pucks says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Being better than VDV is an impact.The Oilers have the worst roster in the league.Every player on the waiver wire would be an improvement.

    But the impact is negligible at best and how might it impact the more important objective of acquiring the other key blue chips? Draft position aside (which is a contentious issue for impatient fans), picking up detritus from other teams WILL give you more dead contracts to deal with and thus prohibits your ability to fill your pipeline with as many viable prospects as possible.

    This is exactly what I was talking about in my reply to WG. Bottom 6 acquisitions cannot be looked at in isolation as if they have no impact on the overall rebuild plan. If you org is truly committing to the draft, you don’t waste your time on retreads. You maximize the amount of contracts you can allocate to legitimate prospects as the potential home runs there far exceed the value of the short term bloop single you’ll get from the Adam Halls of this world.

    This IS an area where Tambellini can do better. More of the 50 man deadwood needs to be cleared out asap.

    That said, if you’re an org with aspirations for Fortune 500 success, you don’t place your bets chasing top flight janitors when middle management talent is still lacking. Draft, develop, repeat. That is the phase we are still in now. Not putty over the cracks and throw it on the market to see if it sells.

  56. Mr DeBakey says:

    The Oilers have one guy who looks like he can play a 3line role on the current roster when this team is ready to push–Paajarvi.

    Last year’s roster earned them Yakupov and they brought them all back.
    Renney was the problem.

    Though, of course, i could be wrong.
    Spec & his Spexspurts were suggesting a couple of minutes ago that the Oilers Just need to Learn how to Win.
    He was also suggesting they should re-sign Whitney. His loss will weaken the D.

    The man is a disinformation factory.

  57. jfry says:

    The oilogosphere was a lot more fun to read when we weren’t competitive because it was all about stats. Now that it looks like we’re close, everyone is a fantasy gm and a professional coach…and mostly opinionated. It’s ashame.

  58. nelson88 says:

    Lowetide: A quick item. I listed “Bouwmeester family” and “Brouwer family” meaning players from that family of players: 2-way defenders and tough winger with some skill. You can pick other names, and in fact these guys ARE available: Hamrlik was on waivers, I do believe Brouwer is available if not then check down to Joel Ward.I did list Ben Bishop because imo he is or will be available when Anderson returns. The Oilers HAD the Brouwer when Glencross was here–as Seinfeld would say “you can take the reservation but you can’t KEEP the reservation.”The Oilers have one guy who looks like he can play a 3line role on the current roster when this team is ready to push–Paajarvi.Shameful.And they are available.

    Brouwer likely is available. What is your reaction going to be if the price of admission is Hemsky?

    Hamrlik?! Perhaps if it was 5 years ago. He got waived from a team that is below the Oilers in the standings. He has played 6 games for the Rangers with no points and about 9 minutes a night. We missed our saviour?

    I agree management’s track record is mediocre at best but the dogs are barking up the wrong trees.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    “Maybe suggesting they have a reason (even a bad one) for not picking up Hall is giving them too much credit?”

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Your evaluation of anybody is going nowhere when you start with the premise that that anything good or bad they do is unmoved by good or fallacious reasoning.

    Just because someone in management needs to be replaced it doesn’t follow that their current decision is bad or irrational. Willis had an excellent take on the actual decision at hand.

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/3/15/should-the-edmonton-oilers-claim-adam-hall-off-waivers

    I can’t really follow you here… maybe it’s because your syntax is awkward.

    I’ve read Willis’ article. He offers a thorough analysis of the pros/cons of the Hall option. That is he offers reasons for making decisions.

    One of those reasons he discusses is one that has received frequent attention here and elsewhere as the default reason why the Oil may have punted on Hall, i.e., the 50 man.

    If that is the reason, I would suggest it is not a good enough one to justify the decision taken.

    However, I also think we should consider the possibility the Oil simply never considered picking him up with any seriousness, i.e., they never got as far as seeking reasons not to pick up Hall.

    Or, in keeping with their failure to make serious moves to improve this team over the past several years, they remain deluded in thinking this team is fine as built and is not in need of depth at key positions.

    After all in the last month they’ve expended mgt. energy to acquire toughness (Volpatti and Brown), when that was dead last on the list of needs many would peg for this team.

    … is that any clearer? maybe you can re-state your objection…

  60. hunter1909 says:

    Does anyone remember that 3rd period drop pass to Yakupov that Pajaarvi made from the right of the Sharks net? It’s obvious the kid’s got talent – confidence is growing – keep this pair together because none of the other players really seem to have anything going with Yaks whatsoever(by my lazy eye).

    And as for the “seriousness” of dropping that point…

    Yes it’s bad, but with 19 games left it’s hardly going to be remembered in 2067 – when old timer “Steve Smith” tells tall tales about the time of the early interweb.

    PS: For those of you inclined to feel sorry for Steve, he’s probably going to end up surrounded by 23 year old babes, driving through town in a limo and everything that goes with it.

  61. "Steve Smith" says:

    hunter1909: PS: For those of you inclined to feel sorry for Steve,

    Why would people feel sorry for Steve? He’s happy as a clam.

    he’s probably going to end up surrounded by 23 year old babes, driving through town in a limo and everything that goes with it.

    Steve appreciates the sentiment, but he’s happily all-but-married to a more age-appropriate babe. And he drives a Kia Rio 5, which he’d only consider dumping for his dream car, a SMART.

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    The Oilers have one guy who looks like he can play a 3line role on the current roster when this team is ready to push–Paajarvi.

    Last year’s roster earned them Yakupov and they brought them all back.
    Renney was the problem.

    Though, of course, i could be wrong.
    Spec & his Spexspurts were suggesting a couple of minutes ago that the Oilers Just need to Learn how to Win.
    He was also suggesting they should re-sign Whitney.His loss will weaken the D.

    The man is a disinformation factory.

    “Learn how to win” is one of those meaningless tropes that sports people love to say.

    It’s all narrative production.

    Unless the subtext of that “learn how to win” means “learns how to play sound defence; maintain possession and position; exit and enter zones with clarity; etc.” all it’s trying to tell you is that a terrible hockey player on a winning hockey team has some intangible value that a good player on a losing team doesn’t.

    It’s a fantasy.

  63. justDOit says:

    The 50 player contract list is stuffed up with mono-syllabic role players, some of whom can’t even play the role.

    The center-ice position doesn’t even have AHL-level depth.

    The defense corps is, for the most part, a motley crew, to put it politely.

    Goaltending is one MCL away from another first overall.

    The pace of the rebuild might be better tracked in epochs, rather than mere calendar years.

    The management team is growing as fast as the prospect pool.

    With realignment next year, the Oilers won’t have Columbus to kick around any more – oh wait…

    In light of all this, what’s the over/under for number of High Noon shows before LT has a ‘Howard Beale’ moment?

  64. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    ” I also think we should consider the possibility the Oil simply never considered picking him up with any seriousness”

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Why add the premise that a blind squirrel can find nuts once in a while? How does that further the evaluation of roster management?

    Willis’s post evaluated the context and the decision at hand without worrying that the devil might get his due (or more than his due) on a narrow point.

  65. jimbones100 says:

    goldenchild: This!

    Justdoit – They were in full tank mode the last few years so maybe it was a part of their strategy to be really awful? But then you would think they would not use the same strategy to make the playoffs. Right?

    Fuck I am still so angry about that loss and what makes me even angrier is they spent all their energy finding a goon that could skate, so after 3 months of work they end up with Brown ( who I dont hate) thatplayed under 7 mins yesterday meanwhile 14 your top scorer last year is playing shifts with a 37 year old Ryan Smyth in the middle. And you still havent figured out what to do with those bottom 4 D. Priorities?

    Well said! Ine

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    ” I also think we should consider the possibility the Oil simply never considered picking him up with any seriousness”

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Why add the premise that a blind squirrel can find nuts once in a while? How does that further the evaluation of roster management?

    Willis’s post evaluated the context and the decision at hand without worrying that the devil might get his due (or more than his due) on a narrow point.

    Sorry, I have no idea what you are talking about.

    I never advanced the premise you imply (blind squirrel). It’s simply a non sequitur.

    Nor was I worrying about narrow points or persons getting or not getting their due.

    The question is really very simple:

    Case A: The oil think they need Hall BUT conclude that the 50 man roster is a serious enough impediment to make the deal.

    Case B: The oil don’t think they need Hall.

    These are actually very different positions. I don’t see how wondering which one the Oil occupies is … well… whatever it is you are concerned about.

  67. Ducey says:

    nelson88: Brouwer likely is available. What is your reaction going to be if the price of admission is Hemsky?

    Hamrlik?! Perhaps if it was 5 years ago. He got waived from a team that is below the Oilers in the standings. He has played 6 games for the Rangers with no points and about 9 minutes a night. We missed our saviour?

    I agree management’s track record is mediocre at best but the dogs are barking up the wrong trees.

    Exactly.

    Its ironic that people complain about the Oilers not leaving spots open on the 50 man list but then would have filled them with almost every player that has come thru waivers.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    One aspect of this rebuild I’m skeptical of as well is emulation of the (DET, PIT, CHI, LA, whoever last win the Cup) Model.

    The NFL is the epitome of a league where teams seek to emulate the recent champions. Signing their players, hiring their coaches, adopting their schemes, etc. The problem is the truly elite teams don’t sit still. They keep innovating, so by the time the pretenders have figured out how to implement the last flavour of the month, they’re already two iterations behind on the caramilk secret.

    Granted, DET is probably worth emulating because of the sheer duration of their success, but Lidstrom remains the X factor in quantifying the validity of their model. In other words, it’s quite possible that any truly generational talent will automatically guarantee you entry into the GM VIP lounge. Granted he’s not a GM, but Lindy Ruff’s legacy for instance looks exceedingly less impressive when you subtract Hasek from the equation.

    While it’s not fashionable for NHL GMs to emulate teams that haven’t won the Cup, I think you could make a case that having a close look at Ottawa is worth the effort. What they’re achieving from a draft, acquisition, coaching, competitiveness, cost efficiency, standpoint is impressive.

    They built a championship team in Binghamton, fully marinate their prospects in that environment, playing the same system they’ll play in the show, and then plug and play in the show almost seamlessly.

    Maybe it’s just not seeing them on a daily basis, but I didn’t see the same missteps the Oil make with the likes of Paajarvi, Omark, Cogliano etc. happening with the Sens? Their ‘development’ system seems exceedingly patient and well designed. Other than the Heatly debacle, they appear from an outsider’s perspective to be a class org.

  69. spoiler says:

    Tambellini on Hockeycentral:

    Whitney, Gagner situations will take care of themselves, happy they’re both playing well.

    Size and strength would be nice but the player has to also be able to play. Finding that player is one of his focuses.

    Not sure how active deadline will be with the logjam in the West. Wants to be in the mix and buying not selling.

    Don’t know if the crew asked about Smid as I missed the beginning of the phone interview.

  70. denny33 says:

    Ducey,

    I will pass on the Ryan Whitney pick…

    Okay – so let’s say we start with the 2003 Fleury pick. – 36 months later – the rebuild looked pretty good.

    Taylor Hall was picked in 2010 ….Here we are in 2013 and we are being mocked in the National media….

    What do you think – 2014 our year?

  71. justDOit says:

    spoiler,

    Just finished listening to that, and that phrase gets repeated a couple of times, ‘it’ll take care of itself’. So why does the mgmt team need to be so large, if things like this ‘take care of itself’?

  72. jake70 says:

    spoiler:
    Tambellini on Hockeycentral:

    Whitney, Gagner situations will take care of themselves, happy they’re both playing well.

    Size and strength would be nice but the player has to also be able to play. Finding that player is one of his focuses.

    Not sure how active deadline will be with the logjam in the West.Wants to be in the mix and buying not selling.

    Don’t know if the crew asked about Smid as I missed the beginning of the phone interview.

    I watched this a few hours ago local time, Tambellini did not mention Smid, was not asked about Smid….the panel went on an on about Whitney and Gagner after Tambellini hung up.

  73. denny33 says:

    Lowetide,

    Solid post Lowetide….bang on.

    Unsure about the unwillingness to take a shot at the waiver wire…there has to be some reason behind this inaction.

  74. 106 and 106 says:

    I’m really glad this is the caption to the Interview:

    Edmonton Oilers GM Steve Tambellini speaks with HOCKEY CENTRAL at Noon about how important Ryan Whitney is to the team.

    I really hope he’s spit-shining and tire-kicking his own player to increase his value – otherwise, *face palm*

  75. DeadmanWaking says:

    Same results in the standings perhaps, yet entirely different.

    At the start of last season, Khabi played like a man who had just woken up from a very bad dream with the sweat-drenched conviction of Butch Coolidge. His wrinkles twinkle until he foolishly retrieves father’s timepiece.

    Subsequent to this brief chapter, Nugent’s “favorable” zone starts on the road against Zdeno Chara did not go well. Many tribulations after Luke’s Alderaan initiation–and another long movie–he’s still clinging to the rails with one good hand. “You have learned much, young one. Now get off my lawn.” Young Luke has his own issues with father time and finds himself promptly schooled in the face-off circle by a stiff breeze. Nevertheless, we’re making progress. Imagine what young Luke could accomplish with an inkling and two good hands.

    I’ve now finished What I Talk About and moved on to Haruki Murakami and the Music of Words by Jay Rubin. This morning I larked out. Sitting there in the coffee shop, immersed but immune to the early morning ritual of other people’s haste, I dipped at random into a passage concerning The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle.

    … their marriage has at least given them six years of sensual intimacy … Nevertheless, in all their time together they never gave themselves so fully to sexual pleasure that they lost control. Something was always held back. When the wife strays into the dark realm of desire and begins sending her husband ambiguous cries for help from that unknown world, he is understandably confused. Afraid to follow … he waits for a sign …

    Paraphrasing so as not to spoil the plot, he waits for sign, and receives a portent “that would have been more than enough for most men to end the relationship”. However, in this story, Toru, the husband, “works through his anger by directing it at someone else [loosely associated with their marital baggage]” reasoning that “the love they shared for six years is too important to abandon”.

    Aye, and here’s the rub:

    If it was meaningless, then his life at the time was meaningless, too, and perhaps his whole life has been meaningless. This he cannot accept and he vows to fight for his wife’s return. Toru decides to pursue his wife, Kumiko, to preserve the integrity of his own personality as much as the continuity of his marriage.

    Rubin now quotes from the text itself:

    I had to get Kumiko back. With my own hands, I had to pull her back into this world. Because if I didn’t, that would be the end of me. This person, this self that I think of as ‘me’ would be lost.

    This establishes the deeply-embedded threat perception. Next comes the twist:

    Thus, rather than doing anything so practical as hire a private detective or search the streets himself, Toru launches his quest inwards. He goes down into the earth, into a well, to brood on his past. … In trying to find out who he is, Toru discovers elements of his identity [that cast a wide literary net].

    The psychologist Hayao Kawai reads Kumiko’s disappearance as an allegory for the kind of emotional barrenness that can overtake a modern marriage when one partner psychologically withdraws from the relationship; this in turn can be seen as emblematic of human relations in general, which call out for the often painful process of “well-digging” on both sides.

    The well thus holds out the promise of healing, which is why Toru goes to inordinate lengths to assure himself of an opportunity to spend time inside it, but the process of “well-digging” is by no means pleasant.

    Toru spends so much time in the well in The Wind-up Bird Chronicle that many readers want to know if Murakami himself has been down one. The answer, quite simply, is no. “He would be too scared” to do such a thing … adding that he associates the well with the story of Orpheus descending to the land of death.

    The Japanese name “Toru” literally means “to pass through”.

    Back to What I Talk About for a moment. Murakami is describing his only experience taking on an ultra-marathon of 62 miles. He has a very rough go from 26 to 40 miles. But he endures until his body accepts that he has become machine.

    I realized all of a sudden that even physical pain had all but vanished. Or maybe it was shoved into some unseen corner, like some ugly furniture you can’t get rid of. In this state, after I’d passed through this unseen barrier, I started passing a lot of other runners. Just after I crossed the checkpoint near forty-seven miles [where slow times are disqualified] many other runners, unlike me, began to slow down, some even giving up running and starting to walk. From that point to the finish line I must have passed about two hundred. At least I counted up to two hundred. … I could count the number of runners because I didn’t have anything else to do. [em. in orig.]

    Walking is here also a metaphor. When I Talk concludes with this observation:

    Some day, if I have a gravestone and I’m able to pick out what’s carved on it, I’d like it to say this:

    Haruki Murakami
    1949-20**
    Writer (and Runner)
    At Least He Never Walked

    All of this (the thematic material, as I had not yet discovered Murakami) was much on my mind after my Asteroid post. True story: I immediately headed outside to take a short walk to the library still feeling a bit shell-shocked by my spontaneous revelation. Moments after I turned off our little side street onto a lightly-trafficked neighborhood arteriole, a Zamboni ambles past with the hustle of an ATV stuck in low-range, bobbing vigorously and making good time all the same. It dripped a wide swath all the way down the gentle hill until rising over a knuckle of granite and disappearing behind the outstretched toe.

    Man, Asteroids and Zambonis all on the same day! The source of long wet envelop-lick was the municipal rink, and it was headed off toward the DND chain-link fence, which I know from reputation houses a complex of its own athletic facilities which I now strongly suspect includes a rink. This was the kind of Zamboni with two rear-mounted propane kegs. That’s all I managed to clearly observe after a quick post-asteroid sanity self-check.

    Of course, I knew the Asteroid was heading to a quadrant near me. There were signs, but not yet portents. I expected it to be tough, and thought I was about as well prepared as you ever are for such a thing. That wasn’t the shock. The shock was how it erased three years of my life.

    Perhaps so soon as the very next day I watched the Esther Perels Valentines Day TED talk. Then I went off to read more about her, as I often do, until I dug up this revealing interview:

    There is a clear hierarchy of secrets. There is only one particular secret that therapists really grapple with in terms of credibility, ethics, and mode of working. If you tell your therapist that you have had a miserable sexual relationship with your partner for years, that you’ve been faking it forever, that you can’t stand his smell, or her looks, or whatever it is, you rarely will hear a therapist say, “Either you need to tell your spouse, or you have to go to individual therapy.” That’s also a big sexual secret. I cannot imagine a partner one day after 27 years finding out that their wife or their husband has been lying and faking to them all these years. They’d be no less crushed. [my emph.]

    Retrospective harm is an entirely different animal from “legally burn two items” in the towering inferno of the post-conflagration match-head throw down. Those three years of my life seemed pretty important to me while I was living them. Suddenly–nothing. Three years completely wiped out by some dumb recurring dream about a bus. That was indeed the larger insult.

    Roger Ebert on Manhattan:

    Look at Allen’s face in Isaac’s final scene with Tracy, as he pleads with her to stay with him, to not go to London, even while he realizes he is simply being selfish. A lesser actor would have gone over the top in the pleading, and then overdone the disappointment. Allen finds the difficult, precise tone of a man who desires and regrets and yet actually does like this young woman enough to know she’s doing the right thing. He had her but he lost her, and now they both know their time has passed. He isn’t planning the future, but trying to rewrite the past. She’ll think of him as a fond memory.

    I know this movie is a case of life tarnishing art. Anyway, I’ve always loved the line from Mariel Hemingway when she figures out she’s just been dumped by a man who has just had a middle-aged attack of belated parameters. All she says is “Now I don’t feel so good.” Ebert likes this line too, calling attention to it as “one of several lines that Hemingway makes both simple and heartbreaking.”

    The real life Mariel H. (grand-daughter of Pere Hemingway who famously killed himself) busied herself “challenging the stigma of mental illness and suicide”. I was thinking about Papa Hemingway when writing my asteroid post because it was his signature to write about a subject without naming it directly. Here’s a passage from Douglas Glover’s Attack of the Copula Spiders, which I’ve much maligned in good sport:

    In every class I teach, there will be at least one student who believes he has put the idea of purity into a story because someone is wearing white. Students speckle their stories with symbols, clues and hints instead of saying what they mean and telling the reader how to read the story. They want to be interpreted … instead of being read. An antidote [is] put the word in the story. If the story is about love, the word “love” should occur several times in the story (tellingly, the majority of student relationship stories I’ve seen manage to avoid using the word at all).

    Does that count as sneaking the word into my narrative? I doubt he’d approve. Oh come on, Mr Glover, the barren word “suicide” is a pale substitute for what Primo Levi actually wrote:

    Or it is raining, windy and you have the usual hunger, and then you think that if you really had to, if you really felt nothing in your heart but suffering and tedium – as sometimes happens, when you really seem to lie on the bottom – well, even in that case, at any moment you want you could always go and touch the electric wire-fence, or throw yourself under the shunting trains, and then it would stop raining.

    Instead of retaining a fond memory, I ended up excavating a deep well. That was how the asteroid caught me off guard and sent me for a tumble through the ruptured bug-window.

    One of the books I read recently said that the goal of a certain kind of writing is to challenge readers without insulting them. If the movie Kafka had been any damn good, I wouldn’t be glossing that link. The dark blue circle is supposed to be an iris of some big eye; unfortunately, the movie wasn’t even good enough to secure a berth on Google images for anything better than a grainy, insulting postcard.

    In a subsequent relationship, I made an effort to read out loud (in bed) a passage from Ursula Le Guin’s The Farthest Shore. My effort was rebuked. Wikipedia summarizes the scene from the book thusly:

    The Dry Land is where the people of the archipelago and reaches of Earthsea go when they die. It is a realm of shadow and dust, of eternal night where the stars are fixed in the sky, and nothing changes. The souls who live there have an empty, dreary existence, and even “lovers pass each other in silence”. Wizards can, at great peril, cross from the land of the living to the Dry Land and back again by using their magic to step over the low stone wall that separates the two realms. At the bottom of the valley of the dead is the dry river, and beyond that lie the Mountains of Pain. In The Farthest Shore, Ged loses his magical powers in the Dry Land; no longer able to cross the wall, he and his companion Arren become the first to traverse the Mountains of Pain to return to life.”

    She didn’t want to know about the well I was still crawling out of. All too soon, this became a problem for us. It was a sad ending to a time in my life which I now recall with great fondness, even though it was not to be. It’s so vastly preferable to grapple with loss of emotions invested and self-hood defined by taking the direct route over the low stone wall.

  76. denny33 says:

    jfry,

    Close to what?

    LT just posted we are on a very similar path as last year….

  77. Woodguy says:

    Super busy at work today.

    Would like to respond more detailed, but won’t get a chance.

    For now here is a list of players Tabmellini has sent out and a list of the players he brought in.

    Ask yourself if you can make a bottom pairing D and a 4-5 bottom 6 forwards our of what went out.

    Also:

    Huge Smyth fan but no room at the inn anymore and signing an old man to a 2 year $2.5M/yr contract is just terrible management.

    SENT OUT

    Mathieu Garon

    Erik Cole

    Kyle Brodziak

    Denis Grebeshkov

    Steve Staios

    Dustin Penner

    Andrew Cogliano

    Tom Gilbert

    Lubomir Visnovsky

    Robert Nilsson

    Sheldon Souray

    Marc Pouliot

    Rob Schremp

    Fernando Pisani

    Ethan Moreau

    Liam Reddox

    Jean-Francois Jacques

    Tim Sestito

    Ryan Potulny

    Zack Stortini

    Ryan O’Marra

    Dwayne Roloson

    Jeff Deslauriers

    BROUGHT IN

    Steve MacIntyre

    Jesse Boulerice

    Ryan Stone

    Patrick O’Sullivan

    Ales Kotalik

    Ryan Whitney*

    Ryan Jones*

    Aaron Johnson

    Colin Fraser

    Jim Vandermeer

    Kurtis Foster

    Alexandre Giroux

    Shawn Belle

    Martin Gerber

    Colten Teubert*

    Taylor Fedun*

    Corey Potter*

    Eric Belanger*

    Andy Sutton*

    Ben Eager*

    Lennart Petrell*

    Nick Schultz*

    Cam Barker

    Bryan Rodney

    Josh Green*

    Mark Fistric*

    Justin Schultz*

    Ryan Smyth*

    Mike Brown*

  78. denny33 says:

    justDOit,

    Probably one of the most succinct, and best, posts capturing the organizations current state.

    WG list of players – 10 players – I believe – was also sad and true….

    Again, it also make me yearn ( on some level ) for a playoff miss and a lucky ball – because at least that way I KNOW we will improve the team. Very tough to imagine ST making any moves – let alone a string of them – to fill out an NHL team.

    Is there anyone on here that believes that ST can improve this team?

    Other that walking up to the draft podium first?

  79. Ducey says:

    106 and 106:
    I’m really glad this is the caption to the Interview:

    Edmonton Oilers GM Steve Tambellini speaks with HOCKEY CENTRAL at Noon about how important Ryan Whitney is to the team.

    I really hope he’s spit-shining and tire-kicking his own player to increase his value – otherwise, *face palm*

    I agree, but Gregor was arguing yesterday at ON that they have to keep Whitney because “bad teams always are trading their actual NHLers for picks and prospects”.

    Eklund (I know) is saying the Oilers are going to re-sign Whitney.

    I am going to start cheering like hell for a losing streak that will put all this mythical playoff BS to bed.

  80. jimbones100 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Agree with you. Good post.

  81. fuzzy muppet says:

    Sustr signs with Tampa. That’s one of the FA’s they had to be targeting

  82. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I can’t really follow you here… maybe it’s because your syntax is awkward.

    I’ve read Willis’ article. He offers a thorough analysis of the pros/cons of the Hall option. That is he offers reasons for making decisions.

    One of those reasons he discusses is one that has received frequent attention here and elsewhere as the default reason why the Oil may have punted on Hall, i.e., the 50 man.

    If that is the reason, I would suggest it is not a good enough one to justify the decision taken.

    However, I also think we should consider the possibility the Oil simply never considered picking him up with any seriousness, i.e., they never got as far as seeking reasons not to pick up Hall.

    Or, in keeping with their failure to make serious moves to improve this team over the past several years, they remain deluded in thinking this team is fine as built and is not in need of depth at key positions.

    After all in the last month they’ve expended mgt. energy to acquire toughness (Volpatti and Brown), whenthat was dead last on the list of needs many would peg for this team.

    … is that any clearer? maybe you can re-state your objection…

    Adam Hall has played 2 games for CAR

    Was even corsi in the first game
    Was +10 corsi in the second game

    Meanwhile the worst corsi player in the NHL Petrell played 4C for the Oilers last night.

    While that happened Cam Abney ate up a contract spot being a fighter in the ECHL.

    You can’t write this stuff, no one would believe you.

  83. Bag of Pucks says:

    WG, if we’re talking Tambellini competence or lack thereof, particularly as it applies to the here and now, I think it’s more illustrative to first pare the list down to those players still active in the league.

    That leaves you with this.

    SENT OUT
    Mathieu Garon
    Erik Cole
    Kyle Brodziak
    Dustin Penner
    Andrew Cogliano
    Tom Gilbert
    Lubomir Visnovsky
    Sheldon Souray

    BROUGHT IN
    Ryan Whitney*
    Ryan Jones*
    Colin Fraser
    Kurtis Foster
    Colten Teubert*
    Taylor Fedun*
    Corey Potter*
    Eric Belanger*
    Ben Eager*
    Lennart Petrell*
    Nick Schultz*
    Mark Fistric*
    Justin Schultz*
    Ryan Smyth*
    Mike Brown*

    Now, let’s subtract from the equation, those players from above that were exchanged directly (e.g. Penner for Tuebert) or all this is about is making the argument that Tambellini is incompetent cos he traded Vis for Whitney or Penner for Tuebert?

    Do so, and this is what you’re left with.

    SENT OUT
    Mathieu Garon
    Erik Cole
    Kyle Brodziak
    Andrew Cogliano
    Sheldon Souray

    BROUGHT IN
    Ryan Jones*
    Kurtis Foster
    Taylor Fedun*
    Corey Potter*
    Eric Belanger*
    Ben Eager*
    Lennart Petrell*
    Mark Fistric*
    Mike Brown*

    Is the argument essentially that Tambellini is incompetent because he should’ve got more in return for Souray, Cole and Brodziak? If yes, I can at least understand that perspective. But, there’s two things that are important to emphasize here. With the notable exception of Souray which had hugely extenuating circumstances, the other two transactions where pre rebuild, AND most importantly Tambellini inherited a very poor roster and development system.

    It is the latter point that I think gets continually ignored in the current narrative on Tambellini. Lowe left him zilch with the initial mandate of win now. What GM is going to thrive under those circumstances? One of the most galling things I’ve seen in regards to Oil management comes from the scene in Oil Change where the team is meeting for dinner prior to drafting Hall. Lowe shrugs and smiles and tells Tambi, it’s his mess to clean up now. What a tool! The fact that Katz willingly overlooks that kind of behavior so his hero worship can continue is maddening.

    Make the evaluation cut off post rebuild and I think it’s fair to say that Tambellini’s roster evolution comes out in a more positive light/direction.

  84. elpolodiablo says:

    Lowetide,

    it sounds horrible, but if you had to choose a cancer to get prostate cancer would be it, even if it metastasizes to the bone it has an excellent prognosis with all the treatments available

  85. eidy says:

    Any word on Bigos . I think their season is done.

  86. FastOil says:

    Things have been broken down so far now, what needs to happen on the ice is so clear, it’s painful to listen to and watch the experts and insiders.

    I really hope they don’t go whale hunting for a top pairing D. You either have to spot that guy when he’s in the dog house and young or draft him. To make a trade I think might cost so much the team is no further ahead.

    A vet D for each side that can retrieve the puck and make a pass is enough until they see what they have with the D prospects in the next few years. A top four of capable players is still solid especially if the can get the puck to the talent up front in a meaningful way.

    As for leaving last year’s team in tact, we can only hope that it was intended and that this summer we see some decent moves to bolster the 4th line. If not, we are likely going to have a painful off season, and I fear the devastating trade.

    I think Belanger would be ok if he had anyone to play with regularly. It would be smart to have an extra centre playing wing somewhere for when Horcoff goes down next season, even if Lander plays 4th LW and gets some learning opportunities though the season where he can switch back if he crashes.

  87. delooper says:

    elpolodiablo:

    it sounds horrible, but if you had to choose a cancer to get prostate cancer would be it, even if it metastasizes to the bone it has an excellent prognosis with all the treatments available

    If you had a cancer localized to a skin tag maybe that would be better. You could snip it off with scissors.

  88. stevezie says:

    Captain Happy: LOL.

    Were you referring to the crash of the Hindenberg or the WKRP episode?

    In any event, damn funny.

    That WKRP episode was one of the best things to ever exist.

  89. Woodguy says:

    nelson88,

    As Ducey states above the goal should be to win the cup and the Jack and Kings are still too young to reasonably be expected to drive the bus.

    Well that’s just wrong.

    The best players on this team by any metric are the kids and they stack up well against many playoff teams.

  90. gogliano says:

    Ducey: You sort of left out a few important points.

    The Pens also drafted 5th overall in ’02 (Whitney), 1st overall in ’03 (Fleury), 2nd overall in ’04 (Malkin).They also picked 2nd overall in 2006 (Staal).

    Seems to me the Oilers have taken Hall, Nuge and Yak.Using your Pens model we should be tanking for one or two more drafts.

    You also may want to take into account the fact the Pens lucked out and got two generational talents (Crosby and Malkin).The Oilers havetalent but not at this level.

    Sam Gagner, the Oilers leading scorer and 6th draft pick overall in 2007, says hello.

    I’m pretty sure the Oilers’ problem isn’t that they have gotten too good too soon.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Woodguy,

    I don’t have a ton of confidence in management either but I disagree regarding the players you mention.

    The Oilers have had a horrible time with injuries on D for the last few years.Now they suddenly are idiots because they have too many?

    Jones and Smyth are good 3rd or 4th line players.Brown has been a good addition.Coming out of 29th you give guys like Eager, Whitney and Belanger a chance to see if they can work thru things. Hordichuk was always a waste but I bet they had Semenko in their saying they needed to protect the kids.He hardly caused them to miss the playoffs.There are exactly zero teams in the NHL that don’t have 4 or 5 Abneys (guys who will never make it).

    You can reasonably hate managment (its evident you do) but their incompetence in the past has nothing to do with what the right course of action should be now.

    If the Oilers appointed a new GM tomorrow.What should he do? I am thinking he looks at the situation and says, “you know what, this team is not really making the playoffs. We will continue to build for next year and beyond.”That would be the right decision.The wrong decision would be to make moves because the fanbase is impatient or fed up with the previous administration.

    They don’t have too many D. They have too many 7 and 8th Dmen, I just want another 3-4LHD.

    Smyth is ok for 4th line this year, 2 year deal is not defensible.

    Jones plays just like Patrick Kane. Cheats for offense, poor in his own end, except Jones doesn’t bring the offense to play like that.

    I liked the Belanger signing but it hasn’t panned out, move him out, move on to someone else, like Hall.

    Giving Eager a 3 year deal is also indefensible. A player with that set of skills who bounce from team to team are often available on the waiver wire.

    Lots were this year, including Eager.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    n one breath, Oiler fans pine for the likes of Hamrlik, Adam Hall, while on the other hand constantly criticizing the team’s lone waiver pickup Ryan Jones. This is what’s know as trying to have your cake and eat it too.

    Care to explain your logic?

    If we want the Oilers to improve the team via the waiver wire we MUST like all players who’ve they picked up on waivers.

    Why?

  93. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    Ducey,

    Even as a supporter of the rebuild and patience approach, I think its quite concerning that the Oilers Management has not managed to snag a single player who has overachieved their expected value, with most turning out to underachieve (Eager, Hort, Belanger, etc.).Good GMs find the “Jason Smiths’ out there to fill out their lineups.

    Excellent point.

    I have no idea why everyone trusts these guys to get it right when the list of who went out and who came in shows they don’t get it right.

    No Staios, no Gator, no Rosie etc.

  94. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Exactly.

    Its ironic that people complain about the Oilers not leaving spots open on the 50 man list but then would have filled them with almost every player that has come thru waivers.

    Strawman

  95. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    There are numerous reasons to second guess management’s competency A) a suspected lack of due diligence in vetting player injuries B) dithering on roster transactions C) inability to sign a ‘money’ goalie D) length, term, and questionable timing of certain contracts, but that is not what occupies the bulk of time in Oiler land. Instead, it’s cries to sign fringe player X, Y and Z and then screams of protest when fringe player X,Y and Z provide proof of why they were expendable in the first place. It’s a bit like listening to the wife’s plans for picking up new paint and wallpaper when the foundation is still cracked and the roof is leaking.

    Awful analogy.

    The foundation for the Oilers is solid.

    The problem is that the electical doesn’t work, water won’t flow and Tambellini is picking out paint.

  96. stevezie says:

    I think even Jones’ detractors will admit he has worked out as a waiver pickup. I don’t think I would pay him what I’m sure he will be asking, but he can play on my 4th line anytime. I don’t think he makes sense above that role except in emergencies.

  97. "Steve Smith" says:

    There is a distinction between rejecting the idea of a multi-year rebuild, which I don’t think many Oilers fans do, and rejecting the idea that the current management team is competent to execute that strategy, which a great many of us do. Indemnifying management against criticism on the basis that “this is a rebuild, the team is supposed to be lousy” is unsatisfactory not only because it effectively forbids all criticism (I could use the same retort if I were managing the Oilers, after all; so could Doug MacLean, Barney Rubble, or Ricki’s firetruck), but because it retroactively gives the management team a clean slate from the beginning of the rebuild, when it was, in large part, this team that first necessitated the rebuild…all while trying to win.

    The other concern I have is that this indemnification promises to extend forward indefinitely. I do not fault Oilers’ management for declining to publicly state a timeline for the rebuild; I do fault their unaffiliated apologists for the same. If any of you can point to comments you made back in 2010 or thereabouts saying that you’d have no objection to the team still being this bad in 2013…well, I’ll acknowledge that you have the courage of your convictions. But I don’t remember any such comments at the time. So to the apologists: how many more years of missing the playoffs will it take before you’ll be prepared to agree that management has failed? Beyond that, how many years of first round exits? If your hypothesis is that management basically knows what it’s doing, provide the criteria against which that hypothesis is testable.

  98. justDOit says:

    Woodguy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    …and Tambellini is picking out paint.

    I hope he gets the good stuff – not that CanTire paint…

  99. B S says:

    Bag of Pucks brushed this with his post, but I think there are some misconceptions about the state of the oilers’ rebuild.

    I absolutely believe this rebuild was necessary, and I agree that we can’t emulate Pittsburgh (who was rebuilding for almost half a decade before the Crosby sweepstakes), especially with our forward heavy top picks. I also don’t think we can emulate the Ottawa “rebuild” model for the same reason that I don’t think Calgary should be trading Iginla, or Kipper if they go for a similar rebuild. Those teams have veteran star players on their first lines (Spezza, Alfreddson) that can play the toughs, and exceptional goaltending, allowing the young players to learn against middling competition. Your young players 1) see what it takes to be a star in the NHL, not just a support cast, and 2) build confidence by having success at the pro level before gradually facing harder competition. 3) win games, which aids in both 1 and 2, but more importantly allows you to buy into whatever the coach is telling you because you know it works.

    Horcoff, Hemsky, and Smyth were a passable first line in their prime and good at the grind in the playoffs. 7 years later they are luck to tread water against the toughs, and won’t be winning you games across the season. This is my first concern when people start comparing rebuilds with the Oilers, Even Crosby had Bill Guerrin to hide behind, these kids have no-one. They aren’t learning their trade on the 2nd or 3rd line comp. They’re now in against the toughs. The only way to help them out is to upgrade our depth forwards so that our 3rd and 4th lines can win against the opposition’s equivalent. This brings me to our second problem for the Rebuild.

    Tambi is rebuilding the organization. Ottawa, Pitt., Detroit, all have massive organizational depth (NHL, minors, juniors and picks) that provide them with numerous valuable assets to trade. Pittsburgh only got to this point in the last couple of years, it took them approximately a decade, expect Edmonton to be at least 4 or 5 years away from this point. This last point is important for anyone criticizing Tambellini and his moves (or lack there of).

    When Tambi inherited management the Oilers had nothing beyond the NHL club well before the rebuild started. The current state of the Oilers depth is not the result of the GM trading away good for bad in order to tank, following 2009, the depth was simply not there to begin with. Most of the trades that fans suggest would simply spin the tires on this team, even our point of strength (RW) is only now NHL calibre, Trading Hemsky would leave a big hole in our forward depth, adding a Clowe or Brouwer would at best simply replace this loss. Our prospect and minor depth isn’t nearly good enough to be making the 3-1 trade for a legitimate NHLer without hobbling the future of the organization.

    I’m not saying there aren’t smart moves out there for a savvy GM, just that those moves have to improve not only the NHL team, but the overall depth of the organization (personally I think the Adam Hall pick could have been one of these). I’m also not defending Tambellini’s asset management (Eager, Hordichuck, Whitney etc.). I’m Just saying that he hasn’t the assets to load this team without ruining the long-term competitiveness of the organization.

  100. Woodguy says:

    russ99:
    Also, considering the overall subpar group in OKC, is 50 contracts the issue that some make it out to be?

    This can be the only excuse that the Oilers refuse to use waivers, though the financial hit and significant future chance of having to waive the player acquired may have something to do with it.

    I’m over my angst from management re-signing Potter, Peckham, Petrell, Hordichuk, Plante, VandeVelde, Danis and maybe Smyth this summer instead of bringing in better playoff-quality secondary help, but it better not happen again this summer.

    To me the real challenge at the deadline is to either sign or acquire good value for Smid and Gagner and get something decent for Whitney – where we don’t hamstring our cap room this summer to make those key secondary player moves.

    The Oilers are always players for college FAs (Fedun etc.)

    Some good quality this year so filling the 50 would hamstring them.

    Flotsam and Jetsom on the 50 keep them from doing something good via waivers even if they wanted to.

    Just underscores their lack of planning other than “with the first overall pick, we are proud…”
    th

  101. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Regarding Bouwmeester, while I usually agree with Woodguy, if you are going by advanced stats this is exactly the player we don’t need because he doesn’t have good advanced stats.

    I looked harder at him recently and was underwhelmed as well.

  102. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Excellent point.I have no idea why everyone trusts these guys to get it right when the list of who went out and who came in shows they don’t get it right.No Staios, no Gator, no Rosie etc.

    You do not get 1st overalls with a good bottom 6.
    Give your head a shake!

    Renney the good soldier played KHB to maintain the top 2 despite .926 Devin Dubnyk.
    Why do you think Detroit signed him.

    They retained Hemsky last year.
    They brought in Fistric who has the third best tough comp GA in the league for a 3rd.
    They got J. schultz who’s PP production is top 5 for Dmen.
    They dump hordichuk and Eager.
    MP has made the step.
    They brought in Howson who was dominate in trades.
    And recognized replacements ufa.
    Peca to Malhotra to Pauhlsson.
    to pro scout for us.

    Trade deadline will be fun.

  103. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    Adam Hall is useless. He can’t even manage a shot a game.

    In Hall’s first two games he’s been on the ice for 10 more shot attempts for than against.

    That has him ahead of 2/3 of the Oilers.

    Your assesment is incorrect.

  104. Ducey says:

    Woodguy,

    Great! Lets say Managment are idiots.

    What the hell does that have to do with trading away the #1 pick or Hemsky or Marincin for Brouwer or Bouwmeester to play 19 or fewer games in an unlikely playoff run?

    Honestly, every time the discussion comes up as to what should happen next you have to recant every move made or every opportunity lost. They have nothing to do with each other.

    If you don’t trust management why would you want them to start fucking up the future?

  105. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    Adam Hall is useless. He can’t even manage a shot a game.

    In Hall’s first two games he’s been on the ice for 10 more shot attempts for than against.

    That has him ahead of 2/3 of the Oilers.

    Your assesment is incorrect.

    Small sample size? He had something like 13 shots in 20 + games when he hit the waiver wire.

    But I am sure you are correct. He is the next Crosby.

  106. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: Strawman

    No, Woodman.

  107. sliderule says:

    Web are never going to do anything with this management.

    We dumped Glencross Cogliano ,Brodziak and Stoll because Lowe thought they wer soft.

    Ever thought why Gagner fights or the oil are one of the most penalized teams in NHL.?when you see Yakupov running at players way bigger than him wonder why.It’s because the players get it and want to stay in Edmonton .
    This management is screwed.

  108. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    This is exactly what I was talking about in my reply to WG. Bottom 6 acquisitions cannot be looked at in isolation as if they have no impact on the overall rebuild plan. If you org is truly committing to the draft, you don’t waste your time on retreads. You maximize the amount of contracts you can allocate to legitimate prospects as the potential home runs there far exceed the value of the short term bloop single you’ll get from the Adam Halls of this world.

    Well this is wrong.

    CHI had a good team when Kane and Toews were in their ELC’s becuase the continually made smart acquisitions.

    Should Tallon had turned down the Sharp trade becuase “we’re not ready to win yet”

    Look at how PIT built as well, and BOS.

    Turnover at the bottom of the roster is standard.

    You’re far off the mark and getting farther…

  109. Factotum says:

    nelson88Hamrlik?! Perhaps if it was 5 years ago. He got waived from a team that is below the Oilers in the standings. He has played 6 games for the Rangers with no points and about 9 minutes a night. We missed our saviour?

    I don’t think anybody said “saviour”, and where he fits on the Rangers roster is irrelevant (although BTN says he’s averaging 12.01 min/60 in 8 games with a RelCorsi of 6.7 and a PDO of 896 – due to an on-ice Sh% of 2.13, so the underlying numbers are hardly an indictment).

    Forgive me for beating a dead horse, but the pertinent question ought to be whether he could have helped the Oilers, i.e. is he better than some of the guys they already had?

    Look at last year’s Vollman charts. Their conclusion: “Contrary to popular belief, Roman Hamrlik can still play.”

    BTN data for 2011-2012:

    Hamrlik CorsiRel = +7.8, Zone Finish-Zone Start = +2.5

    Petry CorsiRel = +2.6, ZF-ZS = +2.2
    Smid CorsiRel = -0.6, ZF-ZS = +3.3
    Whitney CorsiRel = -8.5, ZF-ZS = -6.1
    N. Schultz CorsiRel = -7.2, ZF-ZS = +4.4
    Peckham CorsIRel = -6.0, ZF-ZS = -2.6
    Potter CorsiRel = 4.1, ZF-ZS = -5.4

    Fistric CorsiRel = -3.8, ZF-ZS = +5.4

    Hazardous comparisons, but the math wouldn’t support the conclusion that *all seven* of these current Oilers are better at driving the play in the right direction than Hamrlik.

    Sorry, I don’t understand scoffing at low-cost incremental, iterative improvements – not as THE answer, but as *part* of it.

  110. Lowetide says:

    At some point, the draft picks and the secondary prospects don’t matter like they did in 2010. Adding Ben Bishop, Jay Bouwmeester and a Brouwer (I’m not sold on that as a need but the organization is) to the cluster is the “next step.”

    I’d consider Tambellini trading the 2013 1st rd pick for a quality top pairing defender a good deal if he had miles to go before free agency. What the hell are we waiting for? Let’s get after it!

  111. jimbones100 says:

    Just wanted to say I have enjoyed the civil debate here today. The quality of comments is back to what I expect when I come to this site.

  112. "Steve Smith" says:

    jimbones100,

    So’s your old man.

  113. justDOit says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    jimbones100,

    So’s your old man.

    4/30/1986

  114. Thiru says:

    I won’t dispute that Adam Hall is a better player than Petrell, but my question is: Do 4th line Cs really matter that much?

    They might — I could be totally off here — but I think that the lack of another good Dman (or 2) is what is really holding the club back.

    Also, regarding Tambo’s record: I think he’s been okay. There are some GMs who have made absolutely atrocious moves (Gillis, Luongo+Hodgson; Burke, Kessel) and Tambo has by and large stayed away from moves like that. The Taylor Hall contract is a huge feather in his cap.

    So we wait.

    Grebs + Marincin/Klefbom + UFA/trade acquisition will make the D look a helluva lot better next year.

  115. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    WG, if we’re talking Tambellini competence or lack thereof, particularly as it applies to the here and now, I think it’s more illustrative to first pare the list down to those players still active in the league.

    That leaves you with this.

    SENT OUT
    Mathieu Garon
    Erik Cole
    Kyle Brodziak
    Dustin Penner
    Andrew Cogliano
    Tom Gilbert
    Lubomir Visnovsky
    Sheldon Souray

    BROUGHT IN
    Ryan Whitney*
    Ryan Jones*
    Colin Fraser
    Kurtis Foster
    Colten Teubert*
    Taylor Fedun*
    Corey Potter*
    Eric Belanger*
    Ben Eager*
    Lennart Petrell*
    Nick Schultz*
    Mark Fistric*
    Justin Schultz*
    Ryan Smyth*
    Mike Brown*

    Now, let’s subtract from the equation, those players from above that were exchanged directly (e.g. Penner for Tuebert) or all this is about is making the argument that Tambellini is incompetent cos he traded Vis for Whitney or Penner for Tuebert?

    Do so, and this is what you’re left with.

    SENT OUT
    Mathieu Garon
    Erik Cole
    Kyle Brodziak
    Andrew Cogliano
    Sheldon Souray

    BROUGHT IN
    Ryan Jones*
    Kurtis Foster
    Taylor Fedun*
    Corey Potter*
    Eric Belanger*
    Ben Eager*
    Lennart Petrell*
    Mark Fistric*
    Mike Brown*

    Is the argument essentially that Tambellini is incompetent because he should’ve got more in return for Souray, Cole and Brodziak? If yes, I can at least understand that perspective. But, there’s two things that are important to emphasize here. With the notable exception of Souray which had hugely extenuating circumstances, the other two transactions where pre rebuild, AND most importantly Tambellini inherited a very poor roster and development system.

    It is the latter point that I think gets continually ignored in the current narrative on Tambellini. Lowe left himzilch with the initial mandate of win now. What GM is going to thrive under those circumstances? One of the most galling things I’ve seen in regards to Oil management comes from the scene in Oil Change where the team is meeting for dinner prior to drafting Hall. Lowe shrugs and smiles and tells Tambi, it’s his mess to clean up now. What a tool! The fact that Katz willingly overlooks that kind of behavior so his hero worship can continue is maddening.

    Make the evaluation cut off post rebuild and I think it’s fair to say that Tambellini’s roster evolution comes out in a more positive light/direction.

    This is post rebuild.

    They stated they expected to make the playoffs.

    When I get a minute in front of a computer I’ll list the in’s and out’s of a few other non-playoff teams from 3 and 2 years ago and see how they compare.

    Still looking at the left overs if pretty sad.

  116. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    I think even Jones’ detractors will admit he has worked out as a waiver pickup. I don’t think I would pay him what I’m sure he will be asking, but he can play on my 4th line anytime.I don’t think he makes sense above that role except in emergencies.

    I don’t like the way Jones plays hockey, but it was a good waiver pick up.

  117. TheOtherJohn says:

    S Tambellini has had his job for 4 years 8 months and the totality of his accomplishment is to draft 1st overall 3 times, 10th once and selectied a very nice winger 22nd in the 08 draft.
    He has fired 3 coaches, is on his 4th coach in that time period and in 2009 said the Oilers “have to become harder to play against”, how is that statement measuring up four years later? Oh yeah he also had to set up a farm system. What idiot was that again that felt he did not need an AHL team?

    We are now told Edm cannot be like the Detroit/Pitts/Chicago models for a variety of reasons. Mostly because the Oilers timeline for progression has already fallen noticeably behind each of those models. Gotta say; nobody was saying the Detroit/Pitts/Chicago models were too unrealistic or too remote 3 years ago. They are just too remote now that the Oilers are 2 years behind those schedules.

    They are not doing a bad job…….. Really. I know this because “you have to be really bad to be really good”. Oiler management has 1/2 of that equation down pat.The Oilers keep telling everyone this and then refer to their Plan. They have one. They must. Surely! Right. They just keep expectations really really low. Otherwise they would be measured against those expectations. Like Steve Smith I do not blame Oiler management for keeping expectations really low. Or for moving the expectation goalposts. I know that is exactly what I would if I was not remotely close to meeting any reasonable measureable expectations.

    I would mumble something about Pittsburgh having 5 early draft picks (course Eberle, J Schultz, Hall, RNH & YAK equals 5 too and Sid and Malkin were in the SCF in year 3) , Chicago having Seabrook and Keith (Toews SC champion in year 4, Kane in year 3). I would also sure hope no one noticed that but for the 1st round draft picks: NOBODY in our pro system is banging on the door challenging for a NHL roster spot right now or really really soon: not CVV, Lander, Hamilton, PItlick, Martindale, Marincin or Tuebert. None of them!! Lander is probaly the star of the minor pro system and has 4 goals and 7 assists in the AHL in 40 games. Put more succinctly, he ain’t scoring in the AHL either.

    If I wanted to deflect the fan base from asking hard (hell any) questions I would simply quit talking about all of the bright and shiny pro’s that are currently underperforming in the AHL and I would refer everyone to the “bright, shiny, D prospects that are just finishing up junior”. Great crop…..really I would also hope that no one would notice that the “bright shiny D prospects” are still bright and shiny, in part, because they have not had to go down to the AHL and compete against men. I would pray that no one mentioned or, heaven forbid, asked “don’t D prospects take longer to develop than forwards”? because I would then have to mumble something about that being the conventional wisdom but our D prspects are “really really REALLY bright and shiny and will not be challenged by AHL pros and will not take as long to develop as most other teams D prospects.

    So at this point we know: (1) our skilled first round picks are doing quite well; (2) we are on our 4th coach in 4 years 8 months,; (3) none of our formerly “bright and shiny forward prospect”s are banging on the NHL roster door yet; (4) our “bright shiny D prospects” having not been challenged by having to play pro hockey will somehow exceed expectations. (early); and (5) we have not yet been able to identify and acquire any other teams players fill out our pro roster from other teams.

    its been a long 4 years 8 months…… actually seems like a lifetime

    P.S. when you end up 29th overall and only add two rookies to your lineup either you are pretty stupid or you must think no one will ask you any questions little alone hard ones

    P.P.S. if any of you believe Ryan Jones and Ryan Smith can play on our 4th line at just less than $4m you do not understand the salary cap and the consequence of having to pay, sequentially: Hall, Ebs, Gagner, RNH, J Schultz and YAK real $$$

  118. Thiru says:

    Woodguy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    This is exactly what I was talking about in my reply to WG. Bottom 6 acquisitions cannot be looked at in isolation as if they have no impact on the overall rebuild plan. If you org is truly committing to the draft, you don’t waste your time on retreads. You maximize the amount of contracts you can allocate to legitimate prospects as the potential home runs there far exceed the value of the short term bloop single you’ll get from the Adam Halls of this world.

    Well this is wrong.

    CHI had a good team when Kane and Toews were in their ELC’s becuase the continually made smart acquisitions.

    Should Tallon had turned down the Sharp trade becuase “we’re not ready to win yet”

    Look at how PIT built as well, and BOS.

    Turnover at the bottom of the roster is standard.

    You’re far off the mark and getting farther…

    While it’s true Tallon made some nice moves, the following players were drafted by the Blackhawks and were instrumental in their championship win:

    Toews
    Kane
    Brouwer
    Keith
    Seabrook
    Byfuglien
    Hjalmarsson
    Bolland
    Barker (**used to acquire Johnson and Leddy** Helluva move)
    Ruutu (** used to acquire Andrew Ladd)
    Crawford
    Skille
    Burrish
    Bickell

    To an already impressive core, the likes of Versteeg, Hossa, Sharp, Johnson, Ladd, and a few others were added.

    That’s why I can’t get too revved up about 4th line Cs and a “solid” D. You need big pieces to make a championship team.

    The Oilers just aren’t a good comp for that Blackhawks team, because the latter’s defence core was incredibly mature at the perfect time. The Oilers don’t have that luxury, and at this point that is what is holding the team back.

    Patience is key.

  119. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Woodguy,

    Great! Lets say Managment are idiots.

    What the hell does that have to do with trading away the #1 pick or Hemsky or Marincin for Brouwer or Bouwmeester to play 19 or fewer games in an unlikely playoff run?

    Honestly, every time the discussion comes up as to what should happen next you have to recant every move made or every opportunity lost.They have nothing to do with each other.

    If you don’t trust management why would you want them to start fucking up the future?

    I’m not tradin 83 or the 1st.

    Also,

    That’s my point.

    Whatever they will will probably be bad.

    Because Oilers.

  120. Thiru says:

    Sorry, that should read Johnsson, as in Kim, not Johnson.

  121. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Small sample size?He had something like 13 shots in 20 + games when he hit the waiver wire.

    But I am sure you are correct.He is the next Crosby.

    You’re hyperbole is showing.

    You said Hall was useless, I showed his first two games had good results.

    He’s no Crosby.

    Malkin maybe.

  122. Captain Happy says:

    Thiru: While it’s true Tallon made some nice moves, the following players were drafted by the Blackhawks and were instrumental in their championship win:

    Toews
    Kane
    Brouwer
    Keith
    Seabrook
    Byfuglien
    Hjalmarsson
    Bolland
    Barker (**used to acquire Johnson and Leddy** Helluva move)
    Ruutu (** used to acquire Andrew Ladd)
    Crawford
    Skille
    Burrish
    Bickell

    To an already impressive core, the likes of Versteeg, Hossa, Sharp, Johnson, Ladd, and a few others were added.

    That’s why I can’t get too revved up about 4th line Cs and a “solid” D. You need big pieces to make a championship team.

    The Oilers just aren’t a good comp for that Blackhawks team, because the latter’s defence core was incredibly mature at the perfect time. The Oilers don’t have that luxury, and at this point that is what is holding the team back.

    Patience is key.

    By the time the defensive core “matures”. the Oilers will be forced to hold a fire sale on forwards.

  123. TheOtherJohn says:

    Thiru

    I apologize but I do not remember you mentioning the problem with the Chicago model 3 years ago? I am sure its just my memory. You were not alone in that omission though . Both Lowe and Tambellini talked of the planned rebuild requiring the patience of a Chicago or Pittsburgh model

    I am kinda surprised though, were the Oilers an expansion team with no players to build around? .If not I trust the morons that left the cupboard bare for Tambellini in his new job were fired long ago

  124. TheOtherJohn says:

    Thiru

    The superlative roster that Chicago assembled pre Toews and Kane ended up 28th and 29th in the years before each kid was drafted. MAybe Chicago was not the Muderers Row you think they were

  125. Woodguy says:

    Thiru,

    To an already impressive core, the likes of Versteeg, Hossa, Sharp, Johnson, Ladd, and a few others were added.

    And nothing remotely like that is being added here.

    Oiler have drafted:

    Hall
    RNH
    Eberle
    PRV
    Gagner
    Hemsky
    Horcoff
    Petry
    Dubnyk

    That’s 7 of your top 9 forwards that can match up gainst most teams in the NHL except maybe a couple teams today and a starting goalie.

    If the added 1 D or even 2 that can play and didn’t fill up the bottom of the roster with awful players we’d be bitching at each other how to add for the playoff run.

    They haven’t though.

    Assholes.
    I

    b>

  126. vishcosity says:

    "Steve Smith":
    There is a distinction between rejecting the idea of a multi-year rebuild, which I don’t think many Oilers fans do, and rejecting the idea that the current management team is competent to execute that strategy, which a great many of us do.Indemnifying management against criticism on the basis that “this is a rebuild, the team is supposed to be lousy” is unsatisfactory not only because it effectively forbids all criticism (I could use the same retort if I were managing the Oilers, after all; so could Doug MacLean, Barney Rubble, or Ricki’s firetruck), but because it retroactively gives the management team a clean slate from the beginning of the rebuild, when it was, in large part, this team that first necessitated the rebuild…all while trying to win.

    The other concern I have is that this indemnification promises to extend forward indefinitely.I do not fault Oilers’ management for declining to publicly state a timeline for the rebuild; I do fault their unaffiliated apologists for the same.If any of you can point to comments you made back in 2010 or thereabouts saying that you’d have no objection to the team still being this bad in 2013…well, I’ll acknowledge that you have the courage of your convictions.But I don’t remember any such comments at the time.So to the apologists: how many more years of missing the playoffs will it take before you’ll be prepared to agree that management has failed?Beyond that, how many years of first round exits?If your hypothesis is that management basically knows what it’s doing, provide the criteria against which that hypothesis is testable.

    Alright. I’ll bite. I’ll suggest there is a plan and will further suggest that I believe this management team has thus far proven an ability to perform to sufficient levels and further suggest my acceptable rate of return on future performance. First topic: Optics.

    Mgmt managed to trade centres sufficiently to “appear” competitive while actually failing miserably. Leaving the ordinance of the EIG (run it black) they had no farm team at all. Hard to develop anything. May have had decent pieces in JDD et al, but without development, the best prospects will go nowhere. Sorry to those who got the consequential shaft. Either way, there was no sanction from the league. I call it whale hunting through elite procurement while staying in the good books of the Bettman. Loose lips sank no ships.

    Second topic: Procure talent. Hall = CHECK. Eberle = CHECK. (21 teams passed on him, but not Lowe.) Samwise = check, probably. MPS = check? 6 firsts in the league if you include Cogs and Dubie. Well done on the first rounders. Everything after that is a long shot. Reider could yet be that Zetterburgian deep home run. Though we see through a mirror dimly…

    Third: Conversion to contender. If the plan was to be a bubble team this year, and with a win last night, what’d we say, they’d be in eighth today? Pretty bubbly. If in 2010 I knew they’d be playing last night for the 8th spot with 3 #1′s under 21 on the roster, I’d surely have been fine with that. The 23 and under line banging it home v the champs? Absolutely content. Yessir. That was electric.

    Does it appear that they can create a winning team of the repeatably top seed variety? I have six rings must know something about winning, MacT did pretty well once I recall, why not give them the benefit of the doubt? Really, would you rather have the future Milbury or the devil you know?

    Ottawa, heralded earlier, went out how many times in the first round before making the SCF? Would that or better be acceptable? For me, 3 consecutive first round bounces would still probably be okay, but if in 2016 we’re here hoping for eighth, then probably I’ll be ready for a change. Or, I’d like to see homefield at least once in the next five.

    Steve I think you’re the reason that Lowe is exhausted by questions of the Oilogosphere specifically, because absolutely I don’t think rebuild means what you think it means.

  127. justDOit says:

    Woodguy,

    ST: “…are – ok sure, but a fourth? That’s all, I mean…? Ok then – thanks Ray.”

    KL: “So what did he say?”

    ST: “He’s only offering a fourth – mentioned something about Fenwick and Corson, or something…”

    KL: “Ray had a bunch of guys at that stats thing a while back, didn’t he?”

    ST: “Yeah… (sitting upright suddenly) Hey – right – the stats thing! You still got your books from that, Kevin?”

    KL: “Around here somewhere… why?”

    ST: “Well that’s IT – don’t you see? We’ll look up the class list from that conference and offer Whitney to some teams that didn’t go!”

    KL: “That’s why I hired you, Steve-O!”

  128. nelson88 says:

    Factotum,

    As I have stated here before I don’t hold “advanced stats” as the holy grail others here clearly do. Very useful yes, end all be all no. I don’t intend to get in an endless debate but suffice it so say I have real world experience where “advanced stats” without context/common sense are not only useless but dangerous.

    You mention the “pertinent” question of whether Hamrlik would help the Oilers by being better then the current personnel. Fair enough but you come to the conclusion he could based; primarily, on using advance stats from a previous year playing on a playoff team in a different conference that had a goal differential of -8 compared to a non-playoff team with a goal differential of -27. Sorry, but I’m not willing to take that leap so easily.

    It is late for me so I won’t look it up but how did Belanger’s advance stats look prior to joining the Oilers? Given the amount of knowledgeable folks on this site who thought; at the time, it was a good signing of “an actual NHL player” I would expect them to be have been pretty decent. Hasn’t worked out for either party other than a few good moments. Disappointing as a fan but not nearly as frustrating as the arm chair GM’s taking pot shots at their flavour of the day for causing the Oilers to miss the playoffs.

  129. BONVIE says:

    How about Tyler Myers and Luke Adam, or Joel Armia for Yakapov or Oilers 2013 first this year. I think the Oilers should really be making a move on Myers before somebody else seizes the situation in Buffalo.

  130. vishcosity says:

    Seriously? No response? I’ve read 100 posters write that Lowe has no plan, then when I suggest there has been a plan, no one writes back?

    I think your silence should mean that y’all agree with me, and than any more talk of no plan stan should henceforth be permanently put to rest.

  131. BONVIE says:

    Oilers management fully intended to be in the playoffs this year, if they had anticipated another tank season they would have sold off the majority of their veterans at last year’s trading deadline for picks and prospects, but they wanted to keep some stability so they kept the veterans hoping players like Belanger would have better second seasons.

    Not doing well this year has everything to do with recognizing the holes at center and Defense created by trading away Brodziak and exiling Souray, the problems will not fix themselves. To the average fan they could see early in the season that Whitney was not the answer to their first pair D-man despite the hope we were given in the offseason.

    I think we have an abundance of similar type players that are smaller but skilled, such as Omark and Rajalla who are probably both capable of making the jump to the NHL, but the Oilers have too many small forwards already.

    We probably should have kept Cogliano but again how many small forwards can one team have on the roster.

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