OILERS ACQUIRE BROWN FROM LEAFS

The Edmonton Oilers made a small deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs today, sending a 4th round (conditional) pick in 2014 east in exchange for forward Mike Brown. It’s a deal we saw coming, what with the waiver claim for Volpatti last week and the msm talk in the city over the last week. The Oilers had the city fairly screaming for an enforcer over the last 7 days.

It’s good in a way: the Oilers are convinced their skill men are good enough to win the day (although WHAT day might be worth talking about) and plan to continue with this as their top 6 W’s:

  1. Hall
  2. Eberle
  3. Yakpuov
  4. Hemsky

and haven’t given up on Hartikainen and or Paajarvi. These are good things.

I don’t think this helps. The 4line has been a lost cause for years now and I haven’t read anything about Brown improving the north south real estate or possession. Also, the 4line is kind of the “utility infielder” hockey position so in a way it doesn’t matter if they run Hordichuk or Brown out there. I prefer Eager to both of them, though.

Bottom line: in my opinion, there have been better things to come out of Toronto.

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100 Responses to "OILERS ACQUIRE BROWN FROM LEAFS"

  1. BlacqueJacque says:

    Any comparables on Brown? Vs the likes of Eager, Hordichuk, Colton Orr?

  2. RexLibris says:

    Let’s just hope this ends up in the Nick Schultz-type trade bin, and not the Colin Fraser-type trade bin.

    Somebody on the radio today asked what was the next move to be made by Tambellini. I think it has to be the two UFA Ryans. One needs to get signed (Jones) and one needs to be moved (Whitney). With the trade deadline a month away, I suspect we’ll start seeing more Whitney destination rumours flying around.

    Adding Brown and Fistric in the same (abbreviated) season is at the very least a move in the right direction.

  3. Lowetide says:

    black Jacque: I believe he’s a better player than Hordichuk, seems to be an agitator and can fight plus PK. So there’s some range of skills, but he’s moving around evry couple of years which suggests he’s easily replaceable.

    I’d say he resembles Strudwick more than anyone else. Veteran, popular with his teammates, character guy, tough with limited skills.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Green (Martindale, Fedun) 1-0 early for OKC

  5. justDOit says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Both Kadri and Phaneuf expressed disappointment in interviews about losing Brown as a player and a team mate. They both seemed very sincere in their statements.

    By eye, I’d say he stands a good chance of being a better player than Eager, and wins over Hordi ‘hands down’. At least he isn’t known for getting drunk and bullying guys in bars. I’ll take the implied statement that the Leaves made and say he’s not as good a player as Orr.

    About the only way to know for sure, is to throw him in the lineup and see what happens. The game coming up against the BJs is a good place to start – that team already has 22 fighting majors this year.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Stretch (Rajala, Clark)

  7. Lowetide says:

    25, 7-12-19 for Rajala. What a fun player.

  8. BlacqueJacque says:

    Thank you all, I’m on my phone and have limited ability to research all this.

  9. Kris11 says:

    Didn’t we already waive Hordichuk? Why pay a 4th to get him back and write “Brown” on his jersey? (I am very serious about this. I suspect Brown is Hordichuk replacement and the team must think Hordichuk is a failure in sime way we haven’t yet heard about.)

    I might be okay with Brown if he were as good or better than Eager (or JFJ, say) but he isn’t. His best point total is 8 a couple of years ago.

    His Corsi on for each of the seasons he has played are as follows: -29, -12, -16, -20, -6, -16.

    His RelCorsi is only marginally better, which is damning given that he isn’t going to see tough competition, and Toronto hasn’t exactly fielded dozens of great Corsi players that are hard to compete against in Brown’s tenure.

    His time in the AHL suggests an inability to play well there, too. In three seasons with the Moose in the AHL he averaged about 10 points per season. This means he can’t pass and skate and think at an NHL replacement-player level, because if he was replacement player level, he would’ve fared better in the AHL.

    There will be waivers (for Mike Brown, in the future, and he will clear them.)

    I’m finished.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwrel&v=12Iosf6btzM

  10. Lowetide says:

    Arcobello (Cornet, tyrvainein) 3-2 OKC

  11. Hammers says:

    Somebody said Brown can play center . Can you confirm ? OKC will make playoffs . Nelson seems to be a good coach .

  12. Kris11 says:

    LT,

    Doesn’t the math say that Brown is a worse player 5×5 than Eager (the only question is how much worse) even if he can PK? Brown brings less offense and sports as bad (maybe worse when you look at context across teams, which os tough) Corsi numbers.

    And don’t the Oilers aready have many better PK options in Petrell, Jones, MPS, Horcoff, Belanger, and even Gagner and eventually Hall (who will become a PK’er IMO)?

  13. justDOit says:

    Hammers,

    Stauffer said that, so take that for what it’s worth. Krueger was asked about Brown playing C, and he backed off of that notion pretty quickly.

    Edit: ironically got Stauffer’s name wrong.

  14. justDOit says:

    Krueger vid on Brown and injury updates:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=212631

  15. Kris11 says:

    It also looks to me like his TOI for Pk’ing has gone down significantly over the years, not up, suggesting that TO found better options for the 4×5, which means they thought he sucked at it.

  16. Kris11 says:

    justDOit:
    Hammers,

    Stuffer said that, so take that for what it’s worth. Krueger was asked about Brown playing C, and he backed off of that notion pretty quickly.

    “Stuffer” is the best typo ever.

    From now on, I dub him “Stuffer”

  17. VanOil says:

    My 3 cent thoughts on the Brown trade:

    a) We did not give up any talent to get him. Yeah!

    b) We did not gain any talent by acquiring him. We could use some more talent. Soso!

    c) It should be us, not TO, moving out marginal players from roster to make room for talent. Boo!

  18. Kris11 says:

    I would like to remind people that you can buy a Brodziak for a 4th round pick.

    Also, 4th round picks have a low probability of returning a good player, but on occasion they do, and thus they have some value. Far more than Mike Brown, who has 0 or possibly (given that he takes a roster spot and cap space) negative value.

  19. Kris11 says:

    Mike Brown’s value is that he is Canadian and he (somehow we do mind reading to know this) tries really hard (though the results suck).

    Apparently, this will make everyone try harder, somehow, whereas Europeans try less hard and make their teammates try less hard, somehow, by raising “the compete-level” (Tambi’s phrase) of the team. It’s all BS.

  20. justDOit says:

    Kris11: “Stuffer” is the best typo ever.

    From now on, I dub him “Stuffer”

    I wanted to leave it, but I don’t like making comments like that. There are too many legit ways to rip that guy that personal attacks aren’t required.

  21. stevezie says:

    Kris11,

    Keep in mind the world is full of things that can’t be quantified but obviously and undeniably exist and affect things, like love, happiness, and of course Allah.

    But seriously folks, let me say that if all he is is a fighter than this was a terrible trade. I am expecting a Petrell replacement who can also fight. If we get Hordichuk then you are right about everything.

    Our best current numbers show that fighting is not a definitively good or bad thing (teams that fight less don’t seem to be any better for it.) I guess I rate it higher than neutral because of the small mountain of player testimony and personal experience. Ever been drilled and had a teammate (or co-worker, friend of family member) stand by and watch it happen? It makes it harder to care about “the team”.

    I subscribe to Captain Obvious’ uniting theory of “Goodness”. You will never lose because you’re not fast enough, or because you’re not defensive enough, or because you’re not big enough. You lose because you’re not good enough. Or because the ref is racist.

    I would argue that “toughness” can contribute to a players overall “goodness” rating, if only a little.

    I will now stop defending what I have always considered an overpay.

  22. BlacqueJacque says:

    VanOil:
    c) It should be us, not TO, moving out marginal players from roster to make room for talent. Boo!

    Damn. You nailed it.

    I just realized why I hate this trade.

  23. Bulging Twine says:

    I had heard Brown for a draft pick, I was thinking a 7th for sure.
    Pretty surprised and disappointed that it was a 4th.
    And could be a third?! If it’s a third…man! Too much.

  24. justDOit says:

    VanOil:

    c) It should be us, not TO, moving out marginal players from roster to make room for talent. Boo!

    Don’t fool yourself though – TO added Fraser McLaren which is why Brown is down the road. That they added him via waivers and received Edm’s 4th for Brown is in itself horribly, horribly wrong though.

  25. justDOit says:

    Where does one find an OKC stream anyway?

  26. Lowetide says:

    Cornet, (Clark, Teubert)

    I subscribe to hockey streams.

  27. stevezie says:

    Kris11:
    Mike Brown’s value is that he is Canadian and he (somehow we do mind reading to know this) tries really hard (though the results suck).

    Apparently, this will make everyone try harder, somehow, whereas Europeans try less hard and make their teammates try less hard, somehow, by raising “the compete-level” (Tambi’s phrase) of the team. It’s all BS.

    I’m not going on his Canadian passport, but the overflow of comments from Toronto on him. Tambo isn’t full of it when he talks about teams having “culture”, they definitely do. It’s not all B.S. Has no one else ever been on a crappy team that didn’t care, or didn’t support each other, just hated being around each other, or even had too much fun? These details matter. They don’t matter more than “goodness”, and I am not yet convinced that Brown has sufficient “goodness” to even make his strengths relevant, but that doesn’t make the idea of those strengths irrelevant.

  28. VanOil says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Listening to the OKC game I am impressed by their decisiveness in replacing the NHL players they lost and demoting/siting those not helping them win games. I realize they have different skill sets (truculence v. scoring) I can’t help feeling you would win more games with Cheechoo than Brown as your 4th line winger. Let alone making room for the return of Horcoff, Hartikainen, and a decent defender.

    P.S. Jim Byers has taught me about all kinds of things tonight; checkered red lines, yellow kick plates and even Central European political geography. He is a Gem.

  29. jp says:

    Hammers:
    Somebody said Brown can play center . Can you confirm ? OKC will make playoffs . Nelson seems to be a good coach .

    He does not play C (or at least has not during his NHL career). 254 career GP. 30FO. 4FOW Stuffer got it wrong.

    Kris11:
    LT,

    Doesn’t the math say that Brown is a worse player 5×5 than Eager (the only question is how much worse) even if he can PK? Brown brings less offense and sports as bad (maybe worse when you look at context across teams, which os tough) Corsi numbers.

    And don’t the Oilers aready have many better PK options in Petrell, Jones, MPS, Horcoff, Belanger, and even Gagner and eventually Hall (who will become a PK’er IMO)?

    I don’t think he’s worse than Eager or Petrell. Both have been far worse than Brown this year (actually, they are the worst 2 players for CorsiOn in the NHL this year, followed by Belanger at 5th worst – ouch!). In previous years it’s arguable. Eager brings more offense, Brown gives up less defensively. He is kinda like a Petrell with more truculence (and maybe the tiniest bit more offense). Stevezie will be happy. Brown is better than Hordichuk for sure. I’d say he’s marginally better than Petrell too, and about even with Eager.

    Interesting about Brown on the PK. He hasn’t been used a ton (1-1.5 min from 08-09 to 10-11, and less the last couple of years), but he’s been excellent when out there. Fewest SA/60 on his team each of the 3 seasons he PKed over 1 min/game. Hidden skill possibly.

  30. Lowetide says:

    VanOil:
    BlacqueJacque,

    Listening to the OKC game I am impressed by their decisiveness in replacing the NHL players they lost and demoting/siting those not helping them win games. I realize they have different skill sets (truculence v. scoring) I can’t help feeling you would win more games with Cheechoo than Brown as your 4th line winger. Let alone making room for the return of Horcoff, Hartikainen, and a decent defender.

    P.S. Jim Byers has taught me about all kinds of things tonight; checkered red lines, yellow kick plates and even Central European political geography. He is a Gem.

    Byers is maybe the best thing about the Oilers going to OKC. He did about 1 minute free form on diving yesterday that:

    1. identified the problem
    2. gave the solution
    3. time stamped the point at which this became an issue
    4. correctly informed the audience not to expect any change

    It was so good.

  31. BlacqueJacque says:

    VanOil:
    BlacqueJacque,

    Listening to the OKC game I am impressed by their decisiveness in replacing the NHL players they lost and demoting/siting those not helping them win games. I realize they have different skill sets (truculence v. scoring) I can’t help feeling you would win more games with Cheechoo than Brown as your 4th line winger. Let alone making room for the return of Horcoff, Hartikainen, and a decent defender.

    P.S. Jim Byers has taught me about all kinds of things tonight; checkered red lines, yellow kick plates and even Central European political geography. He is a Gem.

    Oh man, the Cheechoo thing just makes it so much worse.

    Cheechoo is on pace for over 40 goals and 100 points if he played the entire season in the A. Let him play his way up the right side. Let him start from the fourth line and see what he’s got.

  32. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide,

    Didn’t he do your show?

    If not, he should.

  33. Lowetide says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Lowetide,

    Didn’t he do your show?

    If not, he should.

    Yes, he was one of my first guests. Byers is a real gentleman, I fire questions at him and he never asks for my crib notes, just does them on the fly and gives exceptional answers. As a broadcaster of more than 30 years, I can say that when coming upon a guy like Byers it’s such a treat to be on the air with him.

    I had the same feeling about Ron MacLean when I worked with him in Red Deer in 1983+. Some people are just really good at painting pictures.

  34. Kris11 says:

    Sorry, I didn’t mean that as a serious personal attack, though I think I see what you’re getting at now.

  35. Kris11 says:

    Steviezie,

    Why should I believe that toughness and number of fights makes a player more “good”, even a little, where “good” means “makes a team he plays on more likely to win”?

    If there is no reason to believe it, then why do you believe it? I suspect this is something that people believe only because other people believe it, just like the racist belief that Europeans try less than Canadian players.

  36. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide,

    Any chance you can have him again? The OKC story – losing the kids, Eberle *still* the leading scorer, 15 games later – and their improvement since then … that’s a lot to talk about.

  37. Ben says:

    Slow Death for Seth!

  38. stevezie says:

    jp: Stevezie will be happy.

    Well, relatively. I would have much rather given more and gotten more. We traded for a new 14th forward without moving our old one (Petrell) when we really needed… well, you all know.

  39. Kris11 says:

    Signing Cheechoo for the 4th line instead of trading for Brown would’ve been wise.

  40. bendelson says:

    stevezie,

    Has no one else ever been on a crappy team that didn’t care, or didn’t support each other, just hated being around each other, or even had too much fun?

    Sounds like a great time for a shout out to the Screaming Emu of Winterburn Fastball lore… We were bad but we were slow! Never won shit.

    I am convinced our squad didn’t possess the sufficient “goodness” to compete in the league though a defeatist culture definitely took hold in the dugout after losing for that many years… so that didn’t help.

  41. Rebilled says:

    The real scary thing is that we’re starting to trade with Toronto.

  42. stevezie says:

    Kris11:
    Steviezie,

    Why should I believe that toughness and number of fights makes a player more “good”, even a little, where “good” means “makes a team he plays on more likely to win”?

    If there is no reason to believe it, then why do you believe it? I suspect this is something that people believe only because other people believe it, just like the racist belief that Europeans try less than Canadian players.

    Just because a peice of evidence can’t be quantified doesn’t make it non-existant. Did Kierkegaard teach us nothing?

    There is reason to believe it. I have my own personal experience and the testimony of experts in the field. Obviously we’ve both been wrong before.

    If fighting cannot be proven to help or hurt a team, than at worse it is neutral. So if we hold the bar for guy whose primary skill is fighting at “being at least good enough to get into the conversation for NHL work if there was no fighting” then I am enthusiastically onboard with that. If fighting becomes one more invisible tie-breaker that moves otherwise qualified players up or down the line-up I’m fine with that too. I think it has a potential but not intrinsic value (that value can even be negative).

    As far as other “tough” qualities go- I see toughness more as an attitude. Attitude is infectious. I could argue this, but I think this is so patently obvious to anyone with even a modicum of life experience I won’t bother.

    It is one thing to lose, but getting outshot by a mediocre team 18-0 over an entire period in whcih special teams were not a factor shows a team desperately lacking some kind of intagible. By all means, replace Petrell with someone who can light a fire.

  43. nelson88 says:

    I have a friend who is a die hard (and semi intelligent) leafs fan and he had good things to say about Brown. I’ll hold out hope it ends up being a net positive for the team but is a minor move. My sense is he is not as good a hockey player as Eager (not a favourite of mine but he does have some skill) but a “better guy in the room” and willing to fight.

    Given that Calgary brought in McGrattan and Vancouver brought in Sestito I think it was pretty much a given the Oilers were going to have to bring Hordi back or find someone to fight. The issue remains that Brown is game but also not a heavyweight

  44. oilersfan says:

    I wonder what Kevin McClelland, Marty McSorley , Don Jackson, and Dave Hunter had for corsi numbers?

    I bet they were all really negative. That being said, if you asked Gretzky, Lowe, MacT or Sather about them, all 4 would unanimously agree that the Oilers would have won a few cups less than they did win without them.

  45. VanOil says:

    Is Hovinen the next Fuhr? His SV% sucks (below .900) but his win loss record is good 4-1-1. Hope for the future is an important skill set for an Oiler fan. I hope OKC makes the playoffs the more playoff hockey experience we can get in this club the better, we might need it one day.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Rebilled:
    The real scary thing is that we’re starting to trade with Toronto.

    Jason Smith came from Toronto, those were the days.

  47. justDOit says:

    Kris11:
    Signing Cheechoo for the 4th line instead of trading for Brown would’ve been wise.

    Can anyone who is watching OKC tonight talk to Cheechoo’s current abilities, and how his skating is?

    Edited

  48. Kris11 says:

    stevezie: Just because a peice of evidence can’t be quantified doesn’t make it non-existant. Did Kierkegaard teach us nothing?

    There is reason to believe it. I have my own personal experience and the testimony of experts in the field. Obviously we’ve both been wrong before.

    If fighting cannot be proven to help or hurt a team, than at worse it is neutral. So if we hold the bar for guy whose primary skill is fighting at “being at least good enough to get into the conversation for NHL work if there was no fighting” then I am enthusiastically onboard with that. If fighting becomes one more invisible tie-breaker that moves otherwise qualified players up or down the line-up I’m fine with that too. I think it has a potential but not intrinsic value (that value can even be negative).

    As far as other “tough” qualities go- I see toughness more as an attitude. Attitude is infectious. I could argue this, but I think this is so patently obvious to anyone with even a modicum of life experience I won’t bother.

    It is one thing to lose, but getting outshot by a mediocre team 18-0 over an entire period in whcih special teams were not a factor shows a team desperately lacking some kind of intagible. By all means, replace Petrell with someone who can light a fire.

    I’m taking issue with your claim that fighting makes a player have more “goodness.” That claim is unsubstantiated by any evidence whatsoever.

    The testimony of experts is mixed. And the testimony of experts should only be taken as a good reason for believing something if there is a strong consenus amongst experts and those experts have shown to be reliable judges of the truth in their field in the past. Neither condition is met here as the value of fighting (apart from entertainment) is controversial in the mainstream hockey world, and the mainstream hockey world gets as much wrong as it gets right.

    It is true that there are philosophers who argue that the are some things that we must accept on the basis of pure faith, with no rational evidence. (That is sort of, in very very crude terms, what Kierkegaard recommends.) But these same philosophers would not recommend that you accept just any old claim without evidence. Kierkegaard wouldn’t tell you that it is okay to accept that “I am not likely to get cancer from smoking” with no evidence that you are somehow especially immune to cancer, even though he might tell you that you should believe in an infinite God without any evidence.

    I mean, here is no evidence that Zeus exists or doesn’t exist. Lots of ill informed people, many of them great geniuses and experts of a sort, did believe it. But you don’t believe it because there is no reason to believe it and those experts had no claim to be reliable sources of truth.

    So it is with “fighting makes a player more valuable.” Some sooth-sayers on the magic box say it is so. But those sooth-sayers are often wrong.

    And if Brown doesn’t add value to a team through fighting, then he is a significantly worse player than many AHL’ers. including, say, Jonathon Cheechoo, who we could’ve signed for a song and not wasted a 4th round pick on. Indeed, if Brown doesn’t add value through fighting, he is probably not worth a spot on the 50-man contract limit, never mind a spot on the active roster that could be used to keep injury replacement players, PK specialists, etc.

  49. Kris11 says:

    I should also point out that our fourth line is bleeding some goals that could cost a win or two over the season that could be the difference between the playoffs or not. Moreover, our best forwards are injury prone and so it would be very wise to use roster spots and 4th line spots to carry players that could play a few games in the top 9 without sucking the hind banana, which Brown would do, and Cheechoo might not. If Hall is out for 4 more games, I’d be much happier with Cheechoo eating some of his minutes than Brown and Eager. Wouldn’t you?

  50. dawgtoy says:

    Kris11,

    FYI, Mike Brown is an American. Born in Northbrook, IL. That is all.

  51. oilersfan says:

    One thing that is very consistent. Whether any one of us like if the Oilers have players who can fight or not, it is clear that the players themselves want people on their team who can. We can philosophize about it all we want but when these 190lb 20 year old kids are getting hacked, whacked, and picked on by 230 lb 32 year old veterans with a mean streak, and they are sick of getting beaten up, they want someone who can protect them just a bit.

    We watch from the comfort of our living rooms on HD tv and write a thesis on the morals of fighting while these teenagers are getting hurt and bullied. I think if it were me, or my 20 year old son, I wouldn’t mind someone there to make them feel more comfortable. Listening to interviews over the years with Gretzky, Lemieux, Doug Weight, Hemsky, and now Hall and Eberle, these players are asking managment to have someone to fill this role to some degree. I think we are wrong to judge them for it unless we are the guys getting beaten and bullied on a regular basis.

  52. justDOit says:

    Kris11,

    Cheech’s knock was his skating, once all those injuries took their toll on his body. Giroux (the ex-Oiler, not Claude) could score in the AHL, but couldn’t get around well enough to play NHL hockey.

  53. Kris11 says:

    nelson88:
    I have a friend who is a die hard (and semi intelligent) leafs fan

    Yeah right. And I have a friend who is a married bachelor. Sure.

  54. Kris11 says:

    The knock on Brown is that he has always sucked in every aspect but fighting.

    I admit Cheechoo might be below average, or crappy. But he might be okay. That’s a better player than Brown or even Eager.

  55. Kris11 says:

    Dawgtoy,

    Well, as long as he doesn’t have an accent, he isn’t a lazy Euro, is what Spector would say, and lots of “hockey experts” too.

  56. justDOit says:

    dawgtoy:
    Kris11,

    FYI, Mike Brown is an American. Born in Northbrook, IL. That is all.

    Good catch. This probably explains why he’s so good at fighting – born in north Chicago!

    Seriously though – I’m no proponent of fighting, but this guy can really chuck em and can usually rag-doll his opponent. Poor McGinn (orbital bone earlier this year) even got his jersey ripped up by Brown. He switches hands like Gagner goes backhand (and he’s listed as same height and 6 lbs heaver than Gags).

  57. jfry says:

    it’s obvious that he was aquired so that we could waive petrell and eager, leaving room to trade PVR and harti for more fistric’s.

    genius!

    when we talked about giving up draft picks for depth because we have so much youth bubbling over…. well, this isn’t what i was thinking.

  58. jfry says:

    “Brownie was a great guy, an unbelievable teammate,” said goaltender James Reimer, who will start in net against the Devils. “He’s one of those guys who would stick up for you and do anything. Probably one of the best fighters I’ve ever seen, too.

    “It’s tough to see a guy like that go and we’ll definitely miss him but that’s part of the business and I’m sure he’ll do great in Edmonton. They’re lucky to have him.”

    In 254 games with Vancouver, Anaheim and Toronto, the native of Northbrook, Ill., has 14 goals, 11 assists and 519 penalty minutes.

    from tsn

  59. Rebilled says:

    Lowetide,

    Was going to add THELASTREALCAPTAINJASONSMITH but left it because we’re trading with Toronto 11 days after Burke is officially gone.

  60. Captain Happy says:

    Just part of the escalating arms race in the NW Division.

    Vancouver gets Sestito and Pinnizotto so Calgary picks up McGrattin and the Oilers get Brown.

    The Canucks win this one.

  61. stevezie says:

    Kris11: I
    It is true that there are philosophers who argue that the are some things that we must accept on the basis of pure faith, with no rational evidence. (That is sort of, in very very crude terms, what Kierkegaard recommends.)

    No, it isn’t, and that’s not what I’m saying. What Kierkegaard and I are advocating could best be described as subjective evidence. The value of objective evidence is clear to most, but I don’t think it’s the only kind of evidence there is. If I say that in the low-level sports I’ve played having a guy who could get the team fired up was helpful, that is my subjective experience. If there are scores of NHLers who claim that fighting helps them get fired up and bond with their teammates that is subjective, but real evidence. It is not the same thing a clear link between fights and wins, but it is not the same thing as “no rational evidence” either.

    Zeus either exists or he doesn’t. Regardless of what evidence is available and what public opinion is, Zeus’ existence is an objective fact. I don’t think the same can be said of fighting. It helps some players, doesn’t seem to affect others. Of course there is the health debate, but that is a larger question.

    I also think you are ignoring that Brown doesn’t suck at everything but fighting. I think the objective evidence shows he is marginal fourth liner. This puts him on the same level as Petrell and Eager. If his fighting and attitude give him a spot over those guys that’s fine with me.

    That said, I think there are fighting, team-loving guys who play hockey better than Brown and I would have rather given up more to get one of them. “As good as Eager or Petrell” should not be the standard.

    P.S I was originally going to work in a Vonnegut quote, but decided not to because it was a real stretch to make it relevant. I’m just going to throw it in now, a propos of nothing, because it is a great quote.
    “She was a fool, and so am I, and so is anyone who thinks he sees what God is doing.”

  62. Woodguy says:

    oilersfan:
    I wonder what Kevin McClelland, Marty McSorley , Don Jackson, and Dave Hunter had for corsi numbers?

    I bet they were all really negative. That being said, if you asked Gretzky, Lowe, MacT or Sather about them, all 4 would unanimously agree that the Oilers would have won a few cups less than they did win without them.

    Hunter was a good 3rd line winger for a years.

    McClelland was 4th line C.

    Marty McSorley could take a give a pass a little bit, then them moved him to D, not a very good player.

    Don Jackson was 3rd pairing D with Coffey, Huddy, Lowe, Gregg and Fogolin. You can hide a guy with those 5 in front of him.

  63. bookje says:

    stevezie: Just because a peice of evidence can’t be quantified doesn’t make it non-existant. Did Kierkegaard teach us nothing?

    Those Euro philosophers were all wimps who hid behind subjectivity and deconstructivism because they couldn’t hack it out in the real world. A good ol’ Canadian Philosopher like George Grant would kick their ass and then ask them how it subjectively feels to get their ass kicked!

  64. Woodguy says:

    I’m was convinced that acquiring Brown spells the end for either Eager or Petrell.

    But then I found out today that OKC already has too many players who count as AHL vets, and both Petrell and Eager would count as vets as well.

    That means 91 and/or 56 are going down.

    If 91 goes down then Oiler management will do more to hurt the culture of this team more than any player could.

    How do you think the players will feel if management sent down a player who has been acknowledged as one of their best lately in post game interviews of the players?

    If you’re Taylor Hall, and you are killing yourself to win games for the team, and you see Paajarvi go down so another puck optional player can join the lowest 5v5 scoring team in the league, do you really feel good about it?

    Seriously, if they have 55, 37 and Brown all on the roster I’m going to picket Oiler’s HQ.

  65. Woodguy says:

    I don’t know who put this together, but its awesome.

    http://t.co/KrEJuhjy24

  66. PunjabiOil says:

    By itself, a 4th rounder isn’t significant. However, it’s just wasting another opportunity to acquire a player who has the potential be an NHL player.

    This trade clearly illustrates management’s inability to understand the concept of value.

    The Gilbert trade is looking god-awful. How much better would the Oilers defence be with him in the top 4?

    Inability to flush poor performers (Jacques, JDD, Strudwick), inability to make decision (Renney), inability to trade players when they have value (Souray, Sutton, Sykora).

    This is a bad, bad group of management.

    The Edmonton Oilers need answers, and those answers are from outside the organization. It’s a shame Katz has not only allowed it, but endorsed the multi-year extension of Tambellini a year ago.

  67. Woodguy says:

    Someone said on twitter today:

    “I can’t waif for TOR’s 10% shooting percentage and EDM’s 5.9% shooting percentage to both regress and TOR fans will blame this trade and EDM fans will credit this trade”

    That’s exactly what will happen.

    I posted a link to Cullen’s piece at TSN on the Sports Analytics conference in the last thread.

    Here it is again:

    They was a great part in there on luck.

    As a former semi-serious poker player I have a lot of experience with variance and how luck affects outcomes.

    Sports fans and sports writers assume there is no luck and every action and result has to have meaning and a narrative

    http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=417374

    FEELING LUCKY
    The first is the role of luck in sports. Fans don’t want to believe that the results of sporting events are luck-dependent but, statistically-speaking, they are. Some more than others, but fortune, either good or bad, has a role. That’s hard to accept when there is a tendency to make sports results a measuring stick about someone’s character, but there are times that a game’s results are really about getting the bounces, either good or bad.
    In a presentation titled Why You Don’t Understand Luck (by Michael Maboussin), there were several strong points.
    The first of which is the presence of outcome bias. People, in general, constantly judge on outcomes, especially in sports when “Scoreboard!” is the way to silence any argument, when they should focus on process. If a team is performing the right way, they are ultimately more likely to have their desired results. Maybe not in one game — anyone can win on any given day — but over the long haul.
    Maboussin’s conclusion was that the majority of people love stories, yet struggle with statistics. That leads to overweighing recent results, relying too much on perception and making risk-averse choices, even when the statistics suggest that the odds favour a bolder approach. The Patriots’ infamous 4th-and-2 play against Indianapolis in a Sunday night game in 2009 was cited as an example of the right process that was loudly criticized because of the play’s result
    As skill improves, throughout a sport, Maboussin asserted, there is more luck required to reach exceptional levels. Using Ted Williams hitting .406 in ’41 as an example, Williams was four standard deviations ahead of the league average when he hit .406. Four standard deviations above league average last season would have resulted in hitting .380 and the reason for that is there is a broader base of talent throughout the league. Consider the calibre of players in the NHL in the 1980s, when Wayne Gretzky was racking up 200-point seasons, compared to the league-wide talent base in the current game, with players in much better shape and playing at a faster pace.
    There was also a panel on True Performance and Randomness, which included Nate Silver, who is a bit of a stats community rockstar after his forecasts for the 2012 U.S. Election. The premise of the panel was, essentially, that real skill is something that is repeatable. Winning at roulette, for example, is a very luck-driven exercise. It doesn’t mean you can’t win, especially in the short-term but, over time, the odds will catch up to you. On the other hand, a skill like shooting a basketball is something that can be repeated. If you let Steve Nash shoot free-throws, he’s going to make somewhere around 90% of them because he’s established that is his skill level for that exercise.

  68. B S says:

    Not happy with the Brown acquisition. Management has been obstinate about dealing with the glut of 55 37 54 on the roster, and are either demoting or trading Paajarvi. absolute bullshit. Rather than grab a player that Kreuger won’t trust with a pair of skates, maybe they should have hired MacIntyre on as a fight coach to teach Gagner and Hall how to not get destroyed when they’re sticking up for their team. That or Krueger should be asking Smyth and Buchberger to run a clinic on keeping guys from boarding you, elbows up and stick butts pointed gut level. Penalties be damned. Truculence is a Brian Burke bullshit term used to justify trading talent for thugs. I think fighting still has its place in the NHL, but Brown adds absolutely nothing to our roster, so unless he is secretly better than Eager or Petrell (nothing I have seen says this is even remotely likely) we have another Hordichuck and no room for him.

  69. DBO says:

    Woodguy:
    I don’t know who put this together, but its awesome.

    http://t.co/KrEJuhjy24

    awesome, just awesome

  70. DBO says:

    and lets be honest about this trade. it is a minor deal. it will not greatly impact our win/loss record. From all accounts Brown is what we wanted Eager to be, a physical agitator who is great in the room, sticks up for his teammates, which is huge. Sorry, but if you disagree, you haven’t played a contact sport where people fight to stick up for each other. Guys on the team love these players and while he will not win you a lot of games, he helps in a lot of ways. This team is missing something, and maybe Brown helps. It can’t hurt. Our 4th line has been terrible, and until a lot of real NHLers show up, he is just as impactful as Petrell or Eager if not moreso since he can actually fight and initiate.

    As for the whole AHL vet thing, Yep, our management suck. They are IRing Fistric, so that is a week of freedom from real decisions. But they better make a move with a dman and soon. 8 D is brutal, almost as bad as our old 3 goalie crapfest.

    Move a dman, release an AHL vet who sucks balls and send down Petrell or Eager. Just do it already. Freakin killing me. 3 for 1 trade!!!!!! Wait, I take that back. I am scared as to what we would move to get a “true physical power forward”.

  71. bluenotenorth says:

    Woodguy,

    I thought the AHL vet rule only applies to the 18 skaters on the game sheet, not on the roster.

  72. spoiler says:

    DBO: awesome, just awesome

    I thought it was interesting that the only non-hockey video was a history on the invasions of Jerusalem… Bruins and Habs being the worst offenders in their quests for the Holy Grail, is my guess.

  73. Woodguy says:

    bluenotenorth:
    Woodguy,

    I thought the AHL vet rule only applies to the 18 skaters on the game sheet, not on the roster.

    You are right, I wasn’t writing clearly.

    They already have to rotate vets with Hordichuck down there.

    Another one would make it untenable.

    So it’s not like they “can’t” send down Eager or Petrell, but it’s certainly a strike against doing it.

  74. justDOit says:

    Woodguy,

    Hordi to Stockton.

  75. KitchenerWatcher says:

    Something happened, but what was it?

    Sequence:
    1) offseason – Hordichuk excited he’ll get to fight
    2) early season – Hordichuk plays
    3) * something happened *
    4) Hordichuk waived
    5) Brown brought in

    Is #3 just that Hordichuk couldn’t play well enough? Personality conflict? Something juicy?

    Ultimately this story doesn’t define the Oiler season, but this jersey swap isn’t something I anticipated two months ago.

  76. Kris11 says:

    stevezie: No, it isn’t, and that’s not what I’m saying. What Kierkegaard and I are advocating could best be described as subjective evidence. The value of objective evidence is clear to most, but I don’t think it’s the only kind of evidence there is….

    Zeus either exists or he doesn’t. Regardless of what evidence is available and what public opinion is, Zeus’ existence is an objective fact. I don’t think the same can be said of fighting. It helps some players, doesn’t seem to affect others. Of course there is the health debate, but that is a larger question.

    I also think you are ignoring that Brown doesn’t suck at everything but fighting. I think the objective evidence shows he is marginal fourth liner. This puts him on the same level as Petrell and Eager. If his fighting and attitude give him a spot over those guys that’s fine with me.

    1. Not that it matters, but you’re wholly wrong about Kierkegaard. You’re better off appealing to someone like Protagoras (he of “man is the measure” fame) for your concept of “subjective evidence.” (I can appeal to expertise here, if you are in to that sort of thing, which you shouldn’t be. Got me a PhD and everything.) No matter.

    2. I get that you are saying fighting makes some players better but not all players. (Maybe we will neve know which ones are better. Fine.) That is, you believe that it is a fact that being able to fight makes some but not all players more helpful to the team that they play on to win games. Why do you believe this is a fact? What are your experiences, your subjective experiences, that give you evidence to believe that this is factual?

    3. In all things unrelated to fighting, Mike Brown is a worse player than many AHL’ers who could be had without giving up a 4th round pick, which has a small but very real value.

  77. bluenotenorth says:

    Woodguy,

    CapGeek suggests Oilers have 51 contracts. I thought the max is 50. If so, something has to give, soon.

  78. Kris11 says:

    KitchenerWatcher,

    Yeah, this is very much my question, too. Hordichuk was on the roster, seeing time. They could’ve dumped him before the season and replaced him. Something odd happened there. Hey could’ve had him play 3 minutes and double shifted wingers (they have enough talent on the wings to do this pretty easily, IMO) and surely his three minutes wouldn’t be much worse than Brown’s 9 minutes or whatever. Very odd.

  79. TheOtherJohn says:

    Kris11:
    I would like to remind people that you can buy a Brodziak for a 4th round pick.

    Also, 4th round picks have a low probability of returning a good player, but on occasion they do, and thus they have some value. Far more than Mike Brown, who has 0 or possibly (given that he takes a roster spot and cap space) negative value.

    Yeah if you are trading with the Oilers you can ACQUIRE a player for a 4th

  80. BlacqueJacque says:

    bluenotenorth,

    Does Sutton really count, though?

    Also, while checking capgeek I just realized Fistric is turning UFA.

    I hate contract year performances =/

  81. Captain Obvious says:

    bookje: Those Euro philosophers were all wimps who hid behind subjectivity and deconstructivism because they couldn’t hack it out in the real world.A good ol’ Canadian Philosopher like George Grant would kick their ass and then ask them how it subjectively feels to get their ass kicked!

    bookje: Those Euro philosophers were all wimps who hid behind subjectivity and deconstructivism because they couldn’t hack it out in the real world.A good ol’ Canadian Philosopher like George Grant would kick their ass and then ask them how it subjectively feels to get their ass kicked!

    That’s hilarious. You couldn’t have picked a more German Canadian philosopher.

    As to the Krs steviezie dispute i not only have a PhD but I’m employed teaching said philosophy. They are both right. Kierkegaard is the wrong example but that doesn’t mean steviezie’spiels point isn’t valid. Still even if he’s right he’s wrong. Unfortunately I’m typing on a tablet and it is making me crazy so the explanation will have to wait.

  82. bluenotenorth says:

    bluenotenorth:
    Woodguy,

    CapGeek suggests Oilers have 51 contracts. I thought the max is 50. If so, something has to give, soon.
    Edit: forgot CHL contracts do not apply.

  83. bluenotenorth says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Players on IR count, but I forgot 18 and 19 year old players in CHL who have not played 11 NHL games do not. So Oilers have room for Brown.

  84. Kris11 says:

    Obvious,

    Can I ask where you teach? (You con’t have to be specific, just a region maybe.) If you’re going to the Pacific APA, we should meet for a beer. (I also teach, but not Kierkegaard or 19th century Euro-Continental stuff. Strictly M&E for me.)

    This place is lousy with PhD’s, lawyers, doctors, etc. LT should be advertising for the New Yorker or something highbrow.

  85. DeadmanWaking says:

    oilersfan: One thing that is very consistent. Whether any one of us like if the Oilers have players who can fight or not, it is clear that the players themselves want people on their team who can. We can philosophize about it all we want but when these 190lb 20 year old kids are getting hacked, whacked, and picked on by 230 lb 32 year old veterans with a mean streak, and they are sick of getting beaten up, they want someone who can protect them just a bit.

    In the talking-head documentary The Fog of War, McNamara explains that air force personnel much prefer to drop their bombs from up above the AA flak, despite the small problem that bombs dropped from so far up never strike their targets. Turns out bombing destroys far more targets per air crew life lost when approaching the target nerve-wrackingly low.

    It works out to this:

    A) small number of air crew lost with no real damage to enemy at all
    B) large number of air crew lost with massive damage to enemy targets

    So it really depends on whether you’re trying to survive, or to be effective. The fondness of players for the fighters in their midsts could well be driven by similar logic.

    McNamara wasn’t popular for pointing this out. This on top of the creepy hair.

  86. Lowetide says:

    bluenotenorth:
    Woodguy,

    CapGeek suggests Oilers have 51 contracts. I thought the max is 50. If so, something has to give, soon.

    I know you explained it, but for those wondering Oil are at 49 currently, with sliding contracts being Klefbom and Musil.

  87. Captain Obvious says:

    Kris11,

    I teach political philosophy in Alberta, but in a Political Science/Government department. I sort of try and remain anonymous and preserve my ability to vent without having to back it up with consideration (see Wild game thread).

    As I’m sure you know despite many common authors the underlying approach is pretty different. As a graduate student, there was a Social and Political Thought course that was shared between the Philosophy department and my department. Part of the stipend involved attending a week long workshop with the various Professors responsible for the course and the fellows assigned to it. That was an eye opener. Different worlds.

    In any case I will be at the ACTC conference in Ottawa this year which is a good interdisciplinary conference on the classics and liberal arts education. In any event, If there is way to make contact offline that would be interesting.

  88. bluenotenorth says:

    Rather than sending someone down, I see the Oilers continuing to play IR musical chairs. Next up – Fistric. Will buy them another week – until Horcoff and Harnikainen are ready. By then PRV may have secured a spot.

  89. Lois Lowe says:

    Kris11:

    This place is lousy with PhD’s, lawyers, doctors, etc. LT should be advertising for the New Yorker or something highbrow.

    Oiler fans may be stupid, but this lot is a well educated kind of stupid.

  90. Kris11 says:

    I get that on wanting to remain anonymous. Ditto.

    I find myself wondering if you knew Ted Morton. Nicest guy I know, but his politics were a little loopy, even when he was teaching, IMO.

  91. Captain Obvious says:

    Kris11,

    I’m not from Alberta and I’m not at the U of C so I don’t know any of those guys personally. I have similar reading interests as Barry Cooper but with less cranky politics, if that makes any sense.

  92. TheOtherJohn says:

    DMW

    Would it be possible for OIler management to be guided by the observation McNamara pointed out because as they manage from 40,000 ft they may be able to say they are dropping bombs, but they ain’t hitting shit

  93. gogliano says:

    First Kierkegaard and George Grant references and now vague allusions to Voegelin.

    Not the reaction I was expecting re: Brown.

  94. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=417390

    NHL releases the new rules for the draft-all 7 rounds will be on Sunday June 30

  95. Woodguy says:

    justDOit:
    Woodguy,

    Hordi to Stockton.

    You cannot assign a player with a NHL contract to the ECHL.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I know you explained it, but for those wondering Oil are at 49 currently, with sliding contracts being Klefbom and Musil.

    Time for a 3 for 1 trade!

  97. bookje says:

    Woodguy: You cannot assign a player with a NHL contract to the ECHL.

    You can if the player agrees. Unlikely, I would suspect.

  98. KitchenerWatcher says:

    For what it’s worth, Leaf Nation is genuinely sorry to see Brown leave. They’re quick to boo most of the roster, but there’s a local street consensus that Brown leaving is loss.

    To hell with the Leafs, but it makes me wonder if we’ll all be rooting for him in 2 weeks too.

  99. Kitchener says:

    Switching handle to “Kitchener” from “KitchenerWatcher.” I taught at UofA & UofManitoba.

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