OILERS AT AVALANCHE G26 (12-13) 12.3.13
“Watch out for that last step, she’s a lu-lu!” I wonder if Daryl Katz knew what he was getting into when uttering the famous “rebuild” word that cold, dark winter day in January 2010.
The underdog is always something I can get behind. I enjoy the team building as much as watching the championships. As a fan, there’s not much worthwhile you can invest in a team aside from time and the devotion, and for that, hopefully, you are rewarded with a trip to the top of the mountain. I am spoiled as a hockey fan, having watched my beloved Oilers win 5 and my original favorite team (Boston) win it thrice.
But I know pain. 2006 G7 SCF, or game 1 for that matter. Rick Monday on a cold October day in Montreal “he’ll touch ‘em all” and Jim Fanning’s John Wayne pose as the 80s fell away from the wonderful Montreal Expos. The ’79 Expos won 95, with 5 guys who drove in 73 or more; ’80 Expos won 90 games and the ’81 bunch won their division and came with a hair of going to the WS.
Blue Monday. Pain.
As a fan–or an owner–you only get so many sorties before Jeff Loria trades your team for swamp land, or Murray Cook turns your infield from Perez, Scott, Speier and Parrish into Driessen, Flynn, Speir and Wallach (that’s a massive downward spiral).
This season reminds me of the Montreal Expos when Jim Fanning was the manager. They went from Tony Perez to Al Oliver to Dan Driessen so quickly it would make your head spin, and the result was devastating. Sure, the Expos still had Carter and Dawson and Raines and Rogers and and and, but for every impact player there was Doug Flynn or Dan Driessen to GIDP or strike ‘em out throw ‘em out. It was horrible.
–
Dan Driessen and Doug Flynn are represented on the current Edmonton Oilers, and one hopes management figures out how to bring in competent role players to keep things at do until the Chance Machine returns to the ice. Everyone knows what the problem is, because the Oilers have been using binder twine and rusty nails to fill the holes since 2006 summer. They need Dap, not the generic type.
–
The Corsi really shows how wide the gap is getting between the kids–who are getting it now, not just Hall–and the Petrell’s and Eager’s. If you look around the NHL, to names like Kyle Brodziak and Andrew Cogliano and Jarret Stoll, maybe the Oilers are better off staying the course.
With that as the backdrop, the rumors we’re hearing about adding size to the skill lines doesn’t bode well for names like Paajarvi and Hartikainen. Mistake to trade them? They’re progressing, especially Paajarvi.
As for names of possible acquisitions, we’re starting to see specifics filter in:
Stewart has skill and he’s a big, tough winger. His Corsi is not good this season, ranking 14/15 among forwards who have played more than 5 games. He’s posting good offense at 5×5 though, his 2.69/60 ranks him second on the team and is a good number league wide. Two things: why is he in play? The Blues are a team expected to go deep, why would they want to offload him? Is that Corsi true?
And what would they want in return? Dreger suggested a “Stewart for Kulemin+” trade which suggests the Blues might be looking for more of a 2-way type with good speed.
Hitchcock would love to add Hemsky to that group of PF’s I’m sure. If St. Louis acquired Hemmer, I think you’d have to give them an elevated chance of getting out of the west.
Hemsky is my favourite player, but Stewart would not be an insulting return. On the flip side he is clearly Penner 2.0 in that there is a lot of things right, and a lot of things wrong with his story and people looking for reasons to hate him will find them.
I’m off the trade Whitney bandwagon. I would rather keep him and roll the dice that he continues to improve than trade him and roll the dice that the fifth rounder we get for him turns into something. Of course that changes if we are offered solid return.
I should clarify, I wasn’t just talking about racists, There are legitimate problems with Stewart’s game. I am against trading for a player’s potential, but if we have to do that at least Stewart has some.
The Oilers are NOT going to re-sign Whitney under pretty much any circumstances. A 5th round draft pick for Whitney is better than nothing for Whitney.
Why not Brian Boyle? Should take less than Hemsky to get that done, no?
http://www.blueseatblogs.com/2012/04/18/is-this-the-real-brian-boyle/
With some pros and cons here:
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?p=60584707
I noticed Fat Bob was talking on TSN last night about how the Oilers needed size up fronton the skill lines and I yelled at the TV. Seriously when a commentator as smart as Mackenzie starts talking shit about a team he clearly hasn’t seen play, I want to give up on TV and being a fan until enough fans know better. Because sure as shit, first thing this morning the “hockey guy” at work is talking about how the first line needs to be broken up and have some size injected.
If there is one line that has delivered this year it’s Hall-Nuge-Ebs.
The oilers better do a good check on personal problems that Stewart may have.
When you are traded early in your career even tho you have great boxes it’s a red flag as to why.
Couple meh years with Blues and a good year this season .Shooting 18.8 percent not sustainable for career 11 per shooter.
Stewart would cost us Hemsky. Penner would cost us a 5th rd pick. Stewart will need to be signed for around $4 mill per, Penner will be signed to $2 mill. Stewart is 5 years younger, but dammit we are young enough. Both are inconsistent, both are huge, and surprisingly the last 2 years Penner is more aggressive and physical. Penner was hugely popular with the team and would fit in much easier. I would sooner trade a late pick for Penner and try and sign him, then move Hemsky for Stewart.
Penner-Nuge-Eberle
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Paajarvi-Gagner-Yakupov
Harsky-Lander-Smyth/Brown
That is tons of depth, 3 actual scoring lines and there is size/grit on pretty much every line, with the potential to protect the Gagner line, Penner is a perfect complement to Nuge and Eberle and the triple H line is a true tough minutes line. Makes too much sense to actually happen.
And a quick note on those talking about our potential cap issues with Horcoff’s deal. The next few years rookie bonuses will not count against the cap, so that means that next year we have an extra $8.55 mill in space and an additional $2.85 in 2 years. Horc is here next year. Maybe the year after he is bought out or traded, but next year he is a valuable player and with him in the lineup he allows Krueger to rest/shelter Nuge when needed.
The question that comes to my mind, is not “is Hemsky a better player than Stewart?” because that is not even a question. The question really is “does Hemsky have a place on the Oilers in the minds of the management?” And to that question, I really think the answer is ‘no’. As ridiculous as it seems, there is a hesitance around one of the best players on the team – thinking he will be hurt more than play, not display the right amount of ‘heart’ or be a bad influence.
If this is the case, then Stewart(or Boyle or, or, or) is the guy who needs to be had – just please get a good draft pick with them. A first or second is reasonable.
But we have to hope ST is fired before the trade deadline in order to make this happen the right way.
BTW, there is no way Penner will ever come back to the Oilers. Not with the current mgt group. No way. Period.
Pitkanen for Cole
Cole for O’Sullivan
Gilbert for Schultz
Visnovsky for Whitney
Torres for Brule
Why not add Hemsky for Stewart/Stafford to the list of player-for-player trades where the best player is clearly the one on the way out?
Tim Raines was awesome!
If we didn’t have Mr. Do Nothing for a GM, I’d be shocked that we haven’t acquired Brian Boyle yet. As things stand I’m just very annoyed about it.
Non-Oiler news … the Wild assign that amazing rookie Mikael Granlund to Houston Aeros.
Guess he’s not the next coming of Eberle or Hall … just yet.
I haven’t watched the Rangers play much this year, but I think I’d rather have Stepan and McDonagh. Sather is going to have to work magic to get under the $64M cap next season, and you could offer sheet those two and really screw him.
Boyle would cost very little. Those guys would not.
While you are contemplating a Hemsky for Stewart trade know this. After Dreger got off the phone Nielsen and Fraser opined that it would have to be Hemsky + to get Stewart and that they would trade Hemsky and Petry for Steward + a little tiny itty bitty something. There is your fear and loathing.
The good news is that the Leafs have a case of the Oilers. My twitter feed tells me that with the impending return of Lupul the Leafs are looking to move Kulemin or McCarthur because, just like the Oilers, the Leafs have too many good players.
The Oilers should not be making trades right now. They don’t have any chips that have fair market value. Wait until the offseason when teams have to unload salary. Ignore the media and the fans and do the right thing. Please.
Amen, brother. Call it the Gretzky Curse. It’s like the Stephen King book Thinner.
Since when do we care what those two think trade value is?
The Edmonton media has done the job over many years of attempting to downplay trade talk using this method.
DBO,
Totally agree and waiting on Horc & Hemsky one more year makes sense . It’s Belanger , Pettrell, Eager who need gone .
That D corps would look a lot better with Pitkanen, Visnovsky, Gilbert, and Souray on it. Add in Schultz, Petry and Smid. That doesnt look half bad.
Anyone below horcoff in that table should be purged by next season.
LMHF#1,
It shows what people believe. The people who run NHL franchises are men of ordinary intelligence who have never been taught how to reason. If you want to know what they are thinking as other men of ordinary intelligence who have never been taught how to reason.
godot10,
Agreed. With Ryan’s play picking up offensively…there might be some teams willing to use him in a limited capacity -think how many teams kept trying that Campoli kid ( now out of work ) ….
ANY return for this player would be a bonus….
In addition- can someone please get Kabby back playing….everyone still maintains there are teams interested in him if he can get healthy. Same with Eager. Some teams headed for a run – might want size and speed. A lot of teams that think they are in the chase will sacrifice future ( draft picks ) for the present run.
Nashville gave up a 1st round pick for Paul Gaustad last year.
Whitney, Eager, Khabby, and Belanger should be dealt for anything…..although, I refuse to believe any team would actually want Belanger….
I look for Edmonton to be very active at the deadline…
Montador cleared waivers. I guess that was good timing for the Hawks to put him on just after Hamrlik was taken.
It depends on how you define intelligence, which itself may be an indicator of intelligence.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health-and-fitness/health/top-athletes-have-special-form-of-intelligence-study/article8051289/
The stupid moves made by former top athletes who have a hand in running NHL organizations are just that – stupid. But, I wouldn’t arbitrarily attribute those mistakes to “ordinary intelligence.”
Lowetide, did Doug Flynn play shortstop? I thought Speir’s replacement was that offensive black hole Argenis (Angel) Salazar? Remember this guy? Worst hitter I think in MLB history.
An interesting economic perspective on Salary Caps in Sport:
http://integressfinancial.com/a-lesson-in-economics-from-nfl-quarterback-tom-brady/
Everytime the rumours start flying about Oilers being involved in the trade market I start to think about the Pro scouting dept…. And it gives me heartburn. Our Pro scouts are going to play an integral role in filling in these gaps over the coming years… Do we have faith in their abilities? Should we? I don’t.
Sorry, I only got a chance to look at yesterday’s thread now after posting in it. I didn’t mean to post and run. LT, if you would rather not have this bleed into today’s thread, please feel free to delete.
I think Willis put together a nice article, as usual. He hints at the things that make a good hockey team, but doesn’t come out and say specifically what those are which I assume is astute since it’s such a complex analysis, pinning a conclusion on one or two factors would surely be foolish.
This is the problem with the size argument. There is so much more to it than that. I think I could make a reasonable argument that speed; especially quick acceleration from a stop/turn, hands, and anticipation (“hockey sense”) each individually have far more value in obtaining and maintaining puck possession than size. I’m sure there are many others.
If you can get someone that has those qualities at a similar level to a smaller player, then the bigger guy certainly seems like a good bet. But if only one of those qualities (quick acceleration, hands, hockey sense) is better in the smaller man, I would rather have him. You read correctly, I think hands trumps size. I only need to look down our roster at Ben Eager for an example. Same for quick acceleration. Same for anticipation or hockey sense.
I also don’t buy the “big teams wearing us down” argument which is often posted as fact. For one thing, I’ve never heard any player indicate that they were worn down. If we’re going to do the eyeball thing, our smaller players (who aren’t really that small by raw measurement….an argument I’ll leave for now) are just as energetic and feisty at the end of the game/season as they were at the beginning. If anything, Penner, Boyle, and other players sharing their body habitus look lazier toward the end of the season than a guy like Liam Reddox, Sam Gagner or Taylor Hall. Maybe it gets tiring bending over that big body to tie up skates day after day.
I can understand the draw to the coke machine. It’s so easy to do the analysis. All you do is pull out the roster of your losing team and look at height and weight and then say: Aha! there is the problem.
It’s just not that simple. Worse than that, it’s dangerous thinking. It’s the kind of thinking that has quality GM’s lurking around hoping to exchange one of their meatheads for one of our skill guys because they read an article by Matheson that the Oilers want to get bigger.
Well I am sure he can still win the Calder through a combination of NHL and AHL performance right Dee Ess Eff?
I am reminded of the simple logic that someone much more wise then I once wrote:
Step 1 – Get good Players
Step 2 – Keep good players.
Step 3 – Get more good players
Of course, a big part of that happening is having the ability to identify what a good player is, and what characteristics make a good player.
That is perhaps the one redeeming feature of Steve – he does take his sweet time in evaluating the players.
Now if only he or the rest of those… people… were better at it.
Since we’re kicking mgmt. around – how about Stewart & Shattenkirk (who may have the best Twitter handle: @shattdeuces, he’s #22) for Johnson and McCelement. PU
Stewart will be $4.5-$5 next year so similar dough to Hemsky, but he’s only 25. If you want to add a different type player you’ll have to give value to get something. Hemsky for Stewart might work, but this deal would make me nervous and I’m not a fan of sending 83 away.
Yikes! Black Narcissus!
There’s an evil omen if ever there was one!
So, the Oil are a lush technicolor mediation on the psychological effects of a reclusive mission gone very, very wrong:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLoNFaxugkU
whole film:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG-0x5mbNLM
inspired two really, really different cuts by the sax genius Joe Henderson.
1969 version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEY9fIVzsMo
1976 version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYId7D4IPSg
Great article at Copper and Blue. sums it up pretty nicely : Tambo sucks at getting pro players. Shiny draft is easy, NHL players, not so much.
http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/12/4092074/steve-tambellinis-transaction-trade-signing-history
The ongoing small vs large. It isn’t so much that a 6′ has this huge advantage over a 5’10. That’s simplistic. It’s how strong the player is on his skates, how effortless his skating. The big emphasis now is tight turns, etc. Well for that you have to have edges and rockered. You can’t glide on them, more work just to skate. We used to dull our skates, now they sharpen them between periods.
I got to know Mironov quite well – big man. He maintained that the big thing was that you had to pace yourself, it was a long season. Otherwise you got worn out. So the kids are still that, haven’t developed their adult stamina, they get worn out easier. All of a sudden J Shultz looks mortal, the tank is on empty.
Edmonton Oilers @EdmontonOilers
#Oilers on the ice for morning skate. Forward lines: 4-10-83 / 91-89-64 / 28-93-14 / 37-94-13
Harsky benched. Jones gets his shot. Again. And what has Petell done to earn so much ice?
Thing is, when 64 sees only two shifts in the third, the team will need a competent player to slide in alongside 89 and 91. Wait…
RMGS,
Exactly, and the reason i expect hemsky dealt.
Hall-Horcoff-Yakupov
???-Nuge-Eberle
Paajarvi-Gagner-Harsky
Smyth-Lander-Brown
Hemsky will be dealt to free up a RW spot and make room for a bigger LW. Which is why Stewart is being rumoured, and as long as this management team is in place we will always look to get coke machines to be our Lucic.
A couple of tweets by Tambo on the homepage of the Oilers.
You’re not going to give up youth for a quick fix for the next 2 weeks.” – Tambellini
2 Retweets Collapse
@EdmontonOilers
“Whether you’re in the playoffs or not if you can upgrade your team, you do that.” – #Oilers GM Steve Tambellini addressing the media.
2 Retweets Collapse
You’re definitely on to something here. Hockey Sense is now what we call Read and React skills. That is, the ability to read a play or developing play and react to it. I once heard Dave King say about Gretzky, “He’s not the biggest player, nor the strongest. He’s not the fastest skater, hardest shooter, or toughest checker. He is arguably the best passer in the game, but what sets Gretzky apart from others, is his ability to read and react. He does it far better than any other player in the game today!” Of course, fans of this blog know about the greatness of Gretzky and his ability to appear out of nowhere and score or his ability to pass the puck to where a team mate was going to be not where they were.
When I coach and evaluate players, I like for a variety of things, but to keep it real basic, I look at the five technical skills (skating, shooting, passing, stick handling, and checking) as well as Read & React Skills. Over the years, I’m willing to overlook certain technical skills in favour of the read & react skill. Ideally, you give me a player with the five basic technical skills and some read and react skills, and that is the kid I pick any day no matter the size or strength. It’s quite easy to see who has that read and react skill as well during game play: look for the player who is rarely out of position and still can generate offense, or at the very least understands the concepts of an attack triangle.
Read and react skills are what separates the Jonathan Toews of this world (insane R & R skills) from the Eric Belanger’s.
Romulus Apotheosis,
Beat me to it, Rom. Fine, fine film: a nightmare in technicolor, like the Oilers, who are still searching for their very own Mr. Dean.
Gerta Rauss,
Translation:
- Not adding older dudes, so stop asking
- Gagner may actually be safe unless they are blown away, but you can say bye to Hemsky of a coke machine with any level of skill is offered.
- All UFA’s are out and soon.
A couple of tweets from Ralphie-
Krueger says that Dubnyk is healthy and will start tonight.
1m
Edmonton Oilers @EdmontonOilers
“Whitney has certainly added to the offence again. We’re pleased with his game so far.” – Krueger
2m
Edmonton Oilers @EdmontonOilers
“There’s a good chance (Jones will play with RNH & Eberle) but there’s a very minor flu bug in the room so I can’t confirm that.” – Krueger
Expand
What about the tweet of Tambellini bursting out in laughter then yelling NOT?
Oilers also tweet quote by RK, saying there’s a ‘minor’ flu bug going around the room, so he can’t confirm that Jones will skate with RNH and Ebs.
I like how they are pumping Whitney’s tires a bit…not a bad strategy. They’ll be sending out DVD’s to interested teams shortly.
Character limit not enough for the BWAAAAHAAAAHAAAAHAAAAHAAAHAAAAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH – COUGH*COUGH*COUGH*WHEEZE*COUGH – AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
DBO,
Thanks….GREAT article…must read.
Sounds eerily familiar to a lot of what some of us have been saying here…..
I noted this a while back. Morey Gare and Co. have basically been picking the pros via “hazy memory” and “saw him good ole boys” since 2001.
If/when the purge comes, let’s hope this mediocre bunch is on the way out with KL and ST.
Hemsky should be traded because he is on the verge of becoming a declining asset. He isn’t yet, but he won’t be the player he is now when this team has a chance at doing something for reals.
It is shitty for Ales whom I think is great and loyal. But, to make this team better, they need to improve at every opportunity. Hemsky if he stays healthy enough can bring assets that will help when it matters more, when he won’t be as good. I wouldn’t move him unless enough was there, and there is no rush to move a good player just because the trade deadline is coming. As for the other guys who aren’t good, clear the deck.
I like the cost to the Oilers of this line up. Not giving up talent this year in a vain attempt to save his job would be a final gift for Oilers fans who have suffered through the Mr.Dithers years. Otherwise Expos here we come. Plus your still left with Whitney, Petrell and Belanger for a 3 for 1 deal at the deadline.
Romulus Apotheosis,
The movie is way too scary for me, I already have the Oilers in my life, but the jazz is just right.
Or Whitney, Jones and Belanger. Some team may take a look at all or some of them. CHicago wants a vet PK faceoff guy, Rangers need PP help (as do a lot of teams and whitney’s offensive increase the last bit will help) and a player like Jones is always in demand at the deadline since he looks like a playoff warrior (even if he does fall down a lot and is not near as physical in reality as he seems). Still hope for Boyle for our 4C, eventually 3C once Horcoff is gone.
QFT
Well written post Ashley. I agree wholeheartedly.
While I basically agree with your point, there’s got to be an asterisk next to that last one – Raffi Torres is one of those rare players whose “intangibles” actually justify overlooking his on-ice performance, to an extent. I can’t fault management too much for that one.
The rest of the trades you list were brutal. Seeing them all in one place makes me want to go lie down for a while.
C&B uses liberal embellishment in that piece cited by DBO. Most of those 15 players listed cost the organization nothing or next to nothing. Trying out some free agents for bottom 6/bottom pairing roles, or trading Steve Staios, for example, were not terrible deals.
The only FA deals I found annoying were the Belanger and Eager ones since I thought they would take ice time from the kids. At the time I was thinking of guys like Martindale, Hamilton, Vandevelde, Harski, Pitlick, Lander. As it turns out, we didn’t really have many kids that were ready to fill those positions, if they ever will. So even those weren’t that bad.
The major errors on that list are the Vis-Whitney trade and Schultz-Gilbert. Vis and Gilbert would have been and would continue to be very valuable on this roster. Much moreso than what we got. Poor trades.
It does make you wonder about the pro scouting department. Not a good body amongst them. I wonder if they have ugly girlfriends too.
It is important to keep in mind that Sutter came to the department after much of these FA moves and trades. He has a very good reputation in the community and an eye for talent. I am hoping that Tambellini is going to get better advice from here on in.
ashley,
“There’s a number one goalie, though. Nikolai Khabibulin has helped the Oilers get a whack of number ones.”
Loved that line myself.
Agreed, I’d even cheer when Flow falls down playing in the playoffs for some one else. Not out of ill will, just shear amusement. A Center I would love the Oilers to acquire for the 3C/4C role of the future is Shawn Matthias he is a RFA this year but given how well he is playing on a bad Florida team this year he might be expensive to get. Check out this post game interview from the other night from a 25 year old kid having a career year. http://youtu.be/yKeKBLHy9T8 I want this attitude on the Oilers. He can play hockey, the fact that he is a giant is almost irrelevant.
I am still upset about letting Glencross walk.
Man Phoenix has a nice set of defenseman. And the have Rundblad, Gormley, and Connor Murphy waiting in the wings.
I wonder if they need to unload one before next year with OEL needing a raise. I don’t suspect that it will be OEL, but Michalek would be great. I suspect they will want to move Yandle. He is doing very well against poor competition, but he comes with a steep price.
Where would Yandle slot in for us, Top 4 for sure I would think
It is interesting that the Pro Staff appear to have a “seen him good” approach that has not involved due diligence other than perhaps asking another pro scout if they had seen him good too
prairieschooner,
Don’t forget the ‘Yzerman loved him in…’.
Brent Burns is playing 3rd line with James shephard and Scott Gomez. Why is our team that bad again? Also if SJ is that desperate for a F send them 83 for Burns.
Trading Hemsky sets us back, this is a trade we lose every time for ever if done.
We will not get anyone back nearly as talented as Hemsky, No one that will continuously break over the line and pressure the defence. We saw this team without Hemmer in the forwards ranks for a couple games.. zero goals.. All the opposition had to do was keep our injured young stars in check.
Hemsky has lots of years left.. I would look at trading many other pieces proven or unproven before we remove the only heartbeat we had on the team for the last 10years. fuck.
Oilers..Whitney Belanger 4th – Rangers.. Boyle 2nd
Send Eager to NYI for Reasoner for the rest of the year.. everything is happy!
I’ve seen Granlund several times in Houston. He has some of the Nuge’s aura with the puck. Like a snake charmer. He does not skate lik’em Nuge though. Doesn’t mean he doesn’t have it, but I never saw real speed from Granlund.
I don’t know where they got Zucker from, but he impressed the heck out of me in the AHL.
justDOit,
And “Previous first round pick. Had him ranked high on our list at the time of the draft…”
“A big, strong guy who plays a physical game….”
“Played 80 out of 82 games last year…”
Off topic, but I read an article stating that nine teams had scouts at the last Kings/Flames game.
“Hey – why are those large birds just circling overhead?”
“Good in the locker room…”
“Poise with the puck…”
How long until we see “Outshoots and outchances opposition. High corsi/fenwick despite difficult zone start and competition”?
ashley,
Lots of poise…
Do you want my estimate in years, or in equivalent geologic landform evolution periods?
So, I read this (don’t judge me): http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Matty+Krueger+staying+behind+Edmonton/8081337/story.html and took particular interest in this:
“I do think the buck stops with the general manager. It is his team. He put it together. This is a very disappointing season for the Oilers, who can’t use long-term injuries to regulars as an excuse either.”
It’s a miracle! When John The Baptist comes a preachin’…
godot10,
I know the conversation has moved on, but I think winning helps a young team more than drafting one or two spots lower. If you think Potter will help more than Whitney, which isn’t crazy, then by all means trade him for a 5th.
I don’t think upgrade means what you think it means … ST
I honor of your determination within the thread today. The reason is his positive Corsi#’s seen here http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=863 and herehttp://www.coppernblue.com/2012/4/13/2947284/-best-young-forwards-eastern-conference-nhl
But I will not hold the fact he is 6.4 and hates to lose against him. Mind you he is not brilliant at face offs http://sportsnetics.com/chart/player/2012/faceoff-win-_pct/-season–/Shawn-Matthias-1038
Not bad for a guy earning 900K this year.
Hopefully this satisfied your desire for player recommendations to be based on hard evidence. Sadly Tambellini will not justify his moves when he makes them in such a manor.
Matthias is at best a 4th liner right now, maybe top end as a 3rd. But I prefer Lander, who is younger and has the same pedigree and work ethic. yes Matthias is big, but I like what Lander brings and with 4 more years of development before he is 25 like Matthias, I expect he’ll be a much better player. Especially considering Lander is already better on the PK, is almost as good right now on the faceoff dot (which is often an improving skill with age) and will cost us nothing asset wise.
I think a lot of what has happened in the past (when talking about NHL procurement) has made me believe in letting our kids develop instead of sending them away by 25. If we had merely kept a few of the guys we let walk or shipped out for nothing (namely Glencross and Brodziak) our team would be more balanced and overall a better squad.
I mentioned acquiring Burns in the last thread before I knew they were moving him up to play forward. It was mostly wish-casting then but now I think it should be our #1 priority. With his salary and term, we should be able to get him for a second tier prospect and a second round pick.
We shouldn’t trade Hemsky for him, however. We need to add good players, not move good players around.
And I think it was mentioned, but the depth on D for the Sharks has forced them to move Burns to wing. He would be nice on top D pair wouldn’t he? Or is he an advanced stats Johnson type who is clearly not near as good as his pedigree and contract suggest?
ouch, just looked at that contract = 4 more years at $5.76 . Too rich for what he does, although he plays in all situations, is not overly physical but is huge (6’5 225 lbs) and is right in the age range of a vet with time left to be good (28). He is RH, so not sure if he fits our need.
Unless he has an injury I don’t know about Brent Burns is exactly what this team needs. By track record he is a clear top tier D by both possession metrics and points.
The only negative is salary but that’s actually a plus if it means we can get him for peanuts. This is exactly the kind of thing a team with salary cap space should be doing. The Oilers don’t have anything better to do with the money.
Trade for Burns, re-sign Smid, Gagner, and Paajarvi, sign $3M FA forward and this is a real team, rebuild over.
I had to go to bed last night….so I am posting in this thread. I will accept any fine LT doles out…
Patton is my favourite war movie. Best Picture. Numerous academy awards.
Smid was one of the best shut down defenceman in the league last year – finished + on a BRUTAL Edmonton team and faced 1st string opposition every night.
Came into Winnipeg and shut the door down on Winnipeg ‘s first line – refrain from jokes – Ladd and Wheeler ( fomer 5th overall pick )are tough to handle some nights. Not just that he shut them down – he owned Wheeler.
Going to the leafs and Jets game tonight – Toronto guys are on our local airwaves raving about Colton Orr and Frazer Maclaren – credit them with Kadri’s great start.
Said they go into places like Boston with confidence and room to work….
I realize this will upset some people in here.
Why would it be upsetting to hear that idiots in another city believe idiotic things? It is only upsetting when our idiots believe idiotic things.
Would Jones + 2nd round pick be enough to get Burns, or would S.J. be countering with their own D-baggage? maybe add in Omark’s rights?
It’s hard to focus on hockey today, apparently I am still in the running for Pope. It’s just me and about a half billion other Catholic men at this point. I think my odds are pretty good.
If I get elected, I promise to buy the Oilers and to use my Popely resources to ensure that they win the Stanley Cup 5 out of every 10 years.
bookje,
As soon as they bring back the Inquisition I’ll be in like a shot with one of those cool jobs where you travel from town town, helping the church and being able to help out the helpless but very hot women like they show in that movie Witchfinder General.
Meanwhile Tambellini spins “being 5 points out”(sic) like it’s some kind of cool position to be in, and not being straight back in lottery villa.
That’s a snake oil salesman.
hunter1909,
You have seen this picture, right?
http://crownedroyal.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/steves-snake-oil-sales2.jpg?w=640&h=392&crop=1
LT – can you use that picture in one of your posts.
Adam Gretz @AGretz
Former Blue Jackets general manager Scott Howson is listed at the Penguins-Bruins game, representing the Edmonton Oilers.
Good thing the oilers hired Howson back. Really looks like we’re turning a corner on this old boys club thing.
Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
Former CBJ GM Scott Howson is working the rest of this season for EDM, scouting pro ranks and U.S. colleges.
DBO,
Oh god, really? This hurts my vitals. Equally painful is the fact that this isn’t even remotely a surprise.
And one note on Jack Johnson. He is 26, and has a cap hit of $4.375 for next 5 years. We all talk of Smid turning a corner the last 2 years (with a small regression this year) but if he wants the same money, why would we not go for Johnson if the cost is not too high? He is a top 4 LH offensive dman who can get better in his own end. Is he as good defensively as Smid? Of course not. But he is clearly better offensively and can be a top end LH dman. I’m not saying we should throw anything at Columbus to get him, but if he came our way for picks and prospects (not a 1st) then I am fine with it. He has the cap hit of a 2nd pairing LH dman. Pair him with Petry and you have a solid 2nd pair, with Shultz senior playing 3rd pairing. Meaning they still need a 1 LH dman, but if possible it improves our depth and adds another guy who can make a pass (bringing us to a grand total of 3 on the roster). If you resign Smid then you have this for a backend
Smid-Petry
Johnson-Shultz
Shultz-Fistric/Potter
Still need another dman, but that is an improvement since Johnson is a clear upgrade on Whitney for the same money.
Howson.. Hilarious! They’re just circling Steve with sharks!
This is like watching running man.. But Steve isn’t Arnold. For some reason I see Rob Schneider playing Steve.
Ole Boy @probablygoingtohappensoon
EDM sign Quinn to a long term deal as giant head consultant; also rumored to be looking to sign Ron Low, Mark Messier, Craig Simpson and Doug Weight’s uncle among others to “upper mgt. positions”
I’d kill for a Cadre Cola right now!
It just hit me that those are eerily similar to the things MacT said were his roles in that profile last month:
http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/02/13/oilers-vice-president-of-hockey-operations-craig-mactavish-says-pain-and-suffering-of-rebuild-almost-over
Rexall needs one of those chimneys like they have in Rome to make announcements.
Romulus Apotheosis,
It hits the spot!
I think the easiest way to conclude who does what in oilers management is this.. “ask that guy, I’m busy doing stuff”
Maybe they thought the Detroit model, of having a group of smart men in the room collectively making decisions, was based on total combined IQ? Instead of adding really smart people to replace our dumb gorup, we are just adding more people overall so we get to the IQ level needed. Now that is Homer Simpson smart.
Howson?
Jack Johnson?
Chris Stewart?
Are the Oilers a NHL team or The Island of Misfit Toys?
So the solution is to pay 3rd pairing defenseman 4 million a season now? Jack Johnson is last in CorsiRel among defenseman who have played 10 games for CBJ this season. Jack Johnson has been terrible for years and his contract goes on forever.
Jack Johnson always plays with good players and his possession numbers always suck. He’s a faster version of Cam Barker, say no to JJ.
lol…ha…that’s awesome.
Things are looking so desperate even CBJ’s ineptitude is starting to look good.
Woodguy,
I’m now wondering who Rudolph is
Woodguy,
“Tambellini: How would you like to be a bird that doesn’t fly? I swim!
Lowe: Or a cowboy who rides an ostrich?
Howson: Or a boat that can’t stay afloat?
All: We’re all misfits!”
Sid’s toys
I see the strategy now!
Anthropomorphize Oil Mgt.
combine the cuteness of “disney eyes” and the innocence/naivete of inanimate objects/animals with easily recognizable “humanish” narratives of struggle and cooperation!
who could criticize that image!
They aren’t incompetent… they’re cute naifs struggling to put their world back together, which has been destroyed by some incomprehensible and never fully articulated external threat…
they just need us to believe in them!!
OilLeak,
Because there are lots of alternatives? Many people love to talk about our need for a 1 LH dman (which I realize Johnson is not, but we also need real NHL dmen who can make a pass, which he is), but up until last year Smid was not a good defenseman. He improved the last 2 years tremendously, and who knows if Johnson can do the same. One thing he does do is play the hardest zone starts and pushes the puck in the right direction, he also has offensive ability. Lots of warts to go with it, but tell me a legitimate option we are likely to get and I will gladly take it. Glass half full here people, cause our team is not attracting high end dmen other then Shultz the younger, and I’m pretty sure he kinda regrets it based on where both teams are in the standings.
So find me a better, younger and cheaper option that is actually available? Because if the cost is Marincin and a 2nd, you do that deal in a heartbeat because he improves your team and is only 26 (which is right around where many dmen start to get it in their own zone). We do not have cap issues, and after next year his money is the same as Shultz the elder, meaning not an overpay and not lost money. So unless you think we are going to trade or attract a much better option, then you play the hand you are dealt. And we have been dealt a shit hand (management) when it comes to pro player procurement.
Brent Burns is 2 years older, $1.4 mill more per year and is just as bad in his own zone as Johnson, yet most here loved the idea. Not to mention that he is RH, of which we already have our top 2 set.
Reality is that if we can improve our team without giving up actual NHLers and add actual NHLers (warts and all) then you do it cause the cavalry is not coming and I hope we do not get younger in hopes that one of the kid dmen becomes Subban.
MacT and Scott Howson are two different sets of eyes pro scouting, so I tend to view this as a good thing, not a bad thing.
Lowe has even been observed out on the road.
Better than Gare and Semenko.
Maybe the bozos in mgmt are finally realizing their pro scouts are almost as useless as themselves.
I think is very true, however I will always bet on history over potential. It isn’t crazy to think he might get better, but it is crazy to put yourself in the position to get screwed if he doesn’t.
I will grant he has a nice cap number, but the reason is his length is frightening.
We need a d-man. If we still haven’t found a better option by next fall I would consider Johnson, but not before. Too much risk.
DBO,
One thing he does do is play the hardest zone starts and pushes the puck in the right direction,
No he doesn’t.
The puck is not going in the right direction when he is on the ice.
Walkom is a ref tonight. Don’t even pretend to hook someone! Penalties Bonanza Night!
DBO,
Reality is that if we can improve our team without giving up actual NHLers and add actual NHLers (warts and all) then you do it cause the cavalry is not coming and I hope we do not get younger in hopes that one of the kid dmen becomes Subban.
Johnson will cost Paajarvi + 2nd at minimum and he’s a real NHL player or at least really damn close.
They are also going to trade Smid to make room for him.
That is a big net loss on an already thin D.
LT – Why don’t you give us the ability to post youtube videos and images. We won’t abuse it!
When are they going to do this?
Ugh Howson. Only a few days after LT put him up as our potential GM, the guy who’s rank ineptitude inspired a fan protest in Columbus is now a heartbeat away from the GM gig.
Sad. Maybe we should take a cue from the Blue Jackets fans:
http://www.10tv.com/content/stories/2012/01/28/columbus-blue-jackets-protest-fans.html
I thought there were lots of Howson fans here?
Howson: “I’m new, so Katz won’t fire me”.
MacT: “I haven’t been here long, I won’t get fired”.
Semenko: “I was on the dynasty. Katz wouldn’t dare fire me”.
Tambellini: “I’m giving Mr. Katz everything and more – he’s not going to fire me”.
Lowe: “I don’t like the way Katz’s been taking calls from Mark Messier”.
How not to be? He took Moreau off our hands on waivers, saving us the buyout.
But people who are fans of his are crazy, IMO. The Wisniewski overpay, the Voracek-for-Carter trade (which later turned into Johnson… yup.) Oh, and throwing Nash under the bus.
To be fair, he got a lot back for Nash.
But he’s up there with MacT, Lowe, and Tambellini of people I never want to see in the GM/President of Hockey Operations chair
So… I just realized I basically hate anyone and everyone connected with Oilers management.
A recipe for happiness, this is. =/
riley Nash two goals tonight for Carolina.
Lowetide,
Tyler Seguin’s already scored one for Boston.
I know, I know.
DBO,
Johnson and Burns have nothing in common. Jack Johnson is a lot close to Ryan Whitney than he is to Brent Burns, or even Smid. That is what the numbers say. The only thing Jack Johnson has in common with Brent Burns is reputation but reputation doesn’t help teams win.
Comparables to Brent Burns last year in terms of total value:
Beauchemin
Phaneuf
Carle
Campbell
Boyle
Timonen
Tyutin
Streit
That’s the category of player Burns belongs in.
By comparison Johnson’s comparables of mediocre even strength good powerplay guys are:
Whitney
Clitsome
Colaicovo
Robidas
Corvo
So yeah, I think acquiring Burns is a good idea and acquiring Johnson is a bad one.
Technically Oilers are 1-0-0 in the 2nd half of this 48 game season, so I’m going to use the tinfoil trail and hold them to it.
Who knows? maybe they pull off a miracle and meet Chicago in round 1.
I’m sure the Blackhawks would love that.
Gotta give it to the kid, he’s got some game. But man, it took him forever to find it. Pretty much 80% of the first round and a third of the second round have done more than Nash. Not a bad pick, just waaaaaaaaaaaay too early. I think the Journal had him as one of the biggest busts in Oilers history last year.
Captain Obvious,
Genuinely curious – where did you find the comparables? Can you link the source?
Its my best guess.
Smid at deadline.
JJ in the summer.
Lowetide,
Nash looks like a pretty decent rookie.
Shit.
I used to be.
Then he did some poor moves (and some good ones)
Bad out weighed the good.
Failure to address goaltending reminded me of 2006
As more information becomes available opinion can change.
Don’t worry about it, if Nash didn’t ask to be traded, management would have sent him to Switzerland by now anyways.
When someone displays a high level of competence in one area, then moves higher up and doesn’t display the same competence, it automatically means he/she is unfit to serve in any capacity whatsoever. This is the brave new world we live in, filled with tolerance for anything, as long as it is yourself and no one else.
Howson did a good job here in Edmonton, and likely is more than competent to evaluate talent at a pro and college level. Brent Sutter failed as a coach in Calgary, but is succeeding in Red Deer as another example of this.
I am not defending the hiring but I am arguing the guy isn’t a total bum because he didn’t turn around a torpid franchise, making some horrendous/questionable choices along the way.
The similarities between Justin Schultz and Jack Johnson are remarkable.
Yet one is a Messiah and the other is Satan.
Might want to check some of those “Fancy Stats” before rejecting JJ out of hand.
Easy fix: http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/disqus-comment-system/
or http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/livefyre-comments/
Howson started out well, grabbed Hejda from under Lowe’s nose. But he also did things like pick up Ethan Moreau which was crazy as crazy can be.
Jones follows his man behind the net.
Comes no where near getting the puck.
Falls down.
Odd man situation in front of the net and COL gets a scoring chance.
Sure looks like he was working hard and had great flow!!!
Gagner with the useless behind the back pass right back into our zone and to an Av.
Now Hall with the cutesy move.
Keep It Simple, Stupid.
Also saw Potter let a puck get away from him in the defensive zone earlier as he shied away from a hit.
I think the Oilers need to make more drop passes and blinmd passes in their own zone.
Lordy.
Have no clue how Oilers let Smid walk but nothing this management does surprises me.absolutely nothing.
Wonderfully inept and they will trade Smid for a some prospects and spend the next 4 years trying to replace his skillset, they will also trumpet to the tMSM that no smart organization pays $4 million dollars for a defensive defenseman. What the Oilers would know about what smart organizations do is nothing. They show it in routine decisions: giving Ryan Smith a two year contract, signing Hordichuk to an $850K contract after seeing him play for a year. Signing Andy sutton just prior to the trade dedline when you are fighting for dead f%%king last. Signing a33 year Eric Belanger to. 3 year contract. Resigning Petrell.
Lets just say the Oilers wins per $$ spent would lead pro sports in the wrong way
Detroit signed Brad Stuart to a 4 year $3.75m per contract and he added next to no offense. Good tough defender.
The Oilers, however, think their plethora of “top” defensive prospects will fill in holes from Smid departure. I, of course, use the word “top” with regard to the D prospects because the PR campaign is eirily similar to the “top” forward prospects that Stu McGregor lavished on OKC. They are, collectively, treading water just hoping not to drown. Lander would be the offensive star of the group with 3 goals and 7 assists in 39 games
So while “top” Oiler prospect forwards may have been a real slow moving process in OKC, the Oilers PR machine will start selling you, through the MSM, the plethora of “top” young D fprospects just waiting to forcie their way onto our NHL roster (and to fill Smids position). But if they develop like our AHL forwards we won’t see them for 2 or 3 years. And then there is the conventional wisdom (probably developed by smart organizations: i.e. not the Oilers) that say young D take longer to develop than forwards
Hey, any sign Oilers have adjusted their Plan for the pro prospects developing slower than expected? So maybe we keep Smid at $3.75m or $4m per and quit signing guys not part of your core to stupid money or term contracts
Where’s the link for the RE in which many of us (myself included) called LT batshlt crazy for suggesting Ganger would out-produce RNH and Eberle?
Dang. That Hall one-timer should have been a goal.
Ugh. Hall has to bury that.
What is they say about the great ones? The puck follows them around the rink. lol.
Bar_Qu,
Well said and reasonable sir.
Bar_Qu,
This all seems true to me.
I think that was back when his position and relative contributions were being inferred by everyone here. Since then his actions have been in plain sight and it turns out the results are not so great.
It’s amazing what the fog of war will do to our perceptions of supposed big brains.
I would be okay with picking up both Penner on the cheap and Stewart for Hemsky.
Hall – Nuge – Eberle
MPS – Gagner – Stewart
Penner – Horcoff – Yakpuov
I could live with that top 9 for now.
Wow. What a break. Nice finish by 10 though.
Hesmky’s pass was so awesome it blew Landeskog off his skates.
Love the Dirty Russian.
Nine Knuckle Russian Punch?
Hemsky to Horcoff, Landeskog doesn’t know how to skate backwards, and suddenly SCORECOFF!!!!
And bookje thought I was hating on the the cap’n.
stevezie,
Woodguy,
Thank you (I know i don’t have to say it, but I do appreciate it)
So we know what has to be done if ever Horcoff has a scoring slump — somebody has to go break his knuckles.
Interesting goal by Horcoff. Don’t think I’ve seen a player as skilled as Landeskog blow a tire like that in ages.
And god damn Columbus gives Vancouver a point, bah.
Lolandeskog!
I think we can add Jones, with his performance so far tonight on a line with 93 & 14, to Bar_Qu’s list of people promoted beyond there competence that might have more limited uses.
Yakupov is so good on the right WHITNEY OMG SCORES! GAGNER from a Whitney rebound.
Gagdeskog!
64 starting to bring it. Wish they’d find a way to use his shot more though.
Haha.. 2-0 lead when we’ve been the worse team so far..
Nice play Yakupov. It’s all Russians all the time tonight.
Yak with the one handed stick handle, turns to the wizard on the bench and says “that is how you setup hobbits”.
Oh snap, Gagner shows signs of a $6 million dollar man.
The Avs have shown several nice set-piece plays entering the zone. One with the slowdown through the middle while stickhandling Kane-style, and then the other with that entry on the power play. Beautiful double give-and-go.
Smid don’t like people fucking with his goalies and net space.
I think Paajarvi should get an assist on the Gagner goal, no?
Smid is awesome. You can’t trade him.
I don’t see how.
Yak carries it in (on the damn right, as I called it from the early season!
), slows down, turns around, passes it to Whitney who fires a bomb that rebounds to the right side of the goal, and Sam puts it away.
I think Landeskog is confused.
He’s playing like an Oiler.
BlacqueJacque,
I think because the puck hit Paajarvi before Gagner put it home.
Honestly, though.. I’d rather Paajarvi put that puck in; he gets a goal and Yak gets his assist.
Lucinius,
Oh maybe?!
Good eyes, if so. I totally did not see that.
BlacqueJacque,
Don’t tell anyone but neither did I.
I think LT did, though.
Old guy still has his eyesight, apparently.
I love the Avs.They’re like the Hawks, Oilers have their number.
Avs broadcast uses a baseball guy he’s great, calls it like a baseball game; while the color guy for the Avs is hopeless.
Smid was getting some good shots in that Avs players face. He’s like a cat.
If Horcoff can lead these shmucks to the playoffs I’ll never write another word against him.
seems to me that Hall should get an assist on the Horcoff goal no? he passed it up to Hemsky
Oh, great, Mike Keenan’s “insights” are about to be delivered upon my unworthy self.
I’m gonna go see how Crosby’s doing over on TSN…
Bah! Vancouver won. Damn Columbus.
Too bad he’s offering a hometown discount and has to leave anyway. Leaving a team that’s chronically and hopelessly short of defencemen, all the fucking time.
Talk of trading Smid is ridiculous, why do any of this if we’re just going to ship them out when they become players.. Seems we’re still a farm team.
Holy crap, Kunitz hit that puck so hard that when it bounced off the chest pad, it deformed it enough so that the deflection put it in the net. That is wild.
hunter1909,
If Smid walks or gets traded and we learn he wasn’t asking for too much money I might have to break out the molotovs.
Nice work by Hall there.
Maybe it’s Horcoff, maybe not, but there’s no arguing that in the games the captain has played, the Oilers have played with more pride and more fire than in the games from which he’s been absent. Benefits of actual veteran leadership.
I have to confess not watching the game until hearing Horcoff’s goal, but now that it’s 2-0 It’s all aboard the bandwagon for me.
Above post probably a but irrelevant now: lost internet for about 10 minutes.
Pretty sure many prescribed breaking his hands would improve his scoring in the past.
They were right.
Who knew?
#whiffcoff
All Horcoff has to do to shut me up is to lead the team just once – this season – to 8th place.
Penguins tie it up! Suck it, Bruins!
wow…the avs feed color guy basically guaranteed the Colorado win becuase they didn’t miss a pass at practice this morning.
Every time there is a pause before Tambelini answers, I imagine him assessing whether he should answer or stand pat.
For those scoring at home, they corrected the scorecard and Paajarvi got his assist.
Nailed it.
You need to clarify your terms: if the Oilers make the playoffs with Horcoff wearing the “C”, is that, by definition, leading them to the playoffs? Or do you have some other test in mind?
“Sean Horcoff stood up and took re-control of the dressing room…” – Steve Tambellini. Best interview in the business
But you have to applaud “the top shelf where moma keeps the Cadbury Creme Eggs” call
gogliano,
Poor Yakupov.
Paajarvi and Hall with assists.
“But I can tell you again, we’ll be aggressive at the dress… at the dress… at the trade deadline.”
Now that is a terrible liar.
Also, Hall did get an assist added on the first goal.
icecastles,
Now, Tambellini exhibits a lot of the mannerisms of a nervous man, and several that are common indicators of high stress.