OILERS AT RED WINGS G23 (12-13) 7.3.13

In an article about the Minnesota Twins, Bill James wrote a brilliant piece on a team getting something out of a truly wayward season. He called it “THAT was one Ugly Baby” and I think that might apply to this year’s Oilers.

They are dead, as dead as dead can be. And yet there are things that could show progress. Like Paajarvi’s development.

That’s Blind Faith in Hyde Park, their first live gig. Basically Steve Winwood and some nobodies, they sure sound wonderful. I think they could have been something if they’d have a guitar player.

  •  RNH: “To me being good defensively is very important. I want to be trusted by the coach and that all starts with my defensive play. I’m going to keep working on it and I’m not going to let myself get frustrated by it. I’m just going to keep working.”

Who knows how this turns out, but when a kid this good also has a work ethic–sky’s the limit. The Nuge hasn’t found the range, so maybe he explodes (as he did last year) with a hat trick or a 5 assist night. He’s most certainly showing well in many aspects of the game we associate with mature players.

Any word on Hartikainen? We’re at the point in the season when players disappear like Von Trapps over the hills. That 4th line remains a disaster, but the Oilers aren’t going to do anything to address it with Horcoff and Hartikainen so close to returning. Or not.

A nice article by Jesse Spector on this waiver thing some teams are using nowadays.

In honor of Magnus Paajarvi, whose sideburns and waiver ineligibility means he’s probably playing his last games for Edmonton before heading to OKC:

I wish the Red Wings would send us Jim Nill as the next GM.  I don’t think there’s an secret to the Red Wings success, unless you think “do everything humanly possible to win each game” is a revelation.

They do things so logically. Consider:

  • The Red Wings needed some offensive punch so reached into the Swiss-A league for Damien Brunner. He played with Zetterberg during the lockout and plays with him now in Detroit. The other linemate in Zug–Linus Omark–won the scoring championship and I dare say at some point the Red Wings will sign Omark and bring him over for a look-see. NOTHING GUARANTEED mind you, that’s the Detroit way. And it works. 
  • The Red Wings needed someone to replace Nick Lidstrom’s minutes, and I thought Brendan Smith would turn into a feature player (he’s 24, and has 2.5 years of AHL experience). No sir 18 minutes a night and he doesn’t play every game. Detroit will NOT push a guy. Zetterberg played 16 minutes a night as a 22-year old rookie, and that was 4th on the team among forwards. Datsyuk was 8th in F TOO as a 23-year old rookie. Of course, both of them performed very well and would soon increase their role but the point is that Detroit took care to make sure the long term was always the goal. Detroit puts their young players in a position to succeed, and have an amazing track record.

I don’t think the Oilers win tonight, and it’s clear they’ll be in the NW basement when they return from the road trip

nwstandings

 

I keep hoping one day management will find a team they believe in and give them help at center and on defense when it’s needed. I can’t imagine the restraint it must take to watch Taylor Hall risk life and limb on one end and not send the troops an upgrade on Chris VandeVelde on the other.

In hockey terms, it’s tragic.

Roman Hamrlik’s waiver  moment is such a tell; the Oilers could have risked waivers on Whitney or Potter, they could have traded Peckham, hell they could have put Eager on the IR (I don’t think he’s right, just my opinion).

I don’t recall a team with this level of Jacks and Kings (although young) who are willing to flush a season over a lack of 6′s an 7′s. The Montreal Expos used to do this, they’d have Gary Carter and Andre Dawson and Tim Raines playing at high levels and ruin the balance with Doug Flynn at second base and Dan Driessen at first base.

And you know how the story ended for the Expos? They traded Gary Carter for four 6′s.

True story.

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289 Responses to "OILERS AT RED WINGS G23 (12-13) 7.3.13"

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  1. Minister D- says:

    You know, the sad/ironic thing about the Von Trapps is that they escaped the Nazis via Salzberg, which would have actually take them directly into Germany. I’m not sure how to read that with respect to the Oilers’ season, but something about it feels appropriate.

  2. DBO says:

    Ouch, the Gary Carter trade comment hurts, especially since he wanted to go into the hall of fame as a Met and not an Expo. That is Hall to me. One of the best at his position in his time and he will continue to get better, especially if he gets some better support.

    So PBoy mentioned it yesterday, a few others as well, but if this year is basically over we hope and pray that moves are made sooner rather then later.
    - Sign Gagner to a reasonable deal right now or move him before deadline. If he wants more then $4 mill, then you flush him. He’ll never be enough to be your top centre, and your 2nd line limited centre (who is turning into a PP savant, with OK EV and PK) can’t make around $5 mill, which is surely what his agent will ask for. So if you have to move him you get a two way winger/centre back who adds missing ingredients (a LW is fine if you plan on having Hall next year at centre) or a young dman who is 22 or so and NHL ready (not a 3 yr prospect)

    - The Blackhawks have mentioned they are looking for a depth centre in the John Madden mold. Well, Tamblowe get your selling hat on and sell them Belanger for anything, anything at all. He fits what they need (on paper not in reality) and a 2nd rd pick or at worst a 3rd is very doable.

    - You move out at least 2 dmen right now. Whitney with a few goals will have some value approaching the deadline, so play him on the PP, inflate his numbers and move him to a team that is close to the cup and can hide him = the Rangers are the perfect fit, especially with Staal gone and Hamrlik picked up.

    - You sign Jones to a value deal around $1.5 mill or less right now or you move him. He is fun to watch and he tries, but he is replaceable and can’t cost us Moreau money ($2 mill/yr).

    - You hope Bulin is healthy at the deadline and you move him for either a pick or a goalie prospect.

    - And though it pains me to say it, you put the word out on Hemsky and only move him if you get solid, needed return. Mentioned it before, but while Brouwer is not enough skill wise, it allows you to have Yak at 2RW, and Brower adds something we lack in effort, physical play and he can actually play top 6 if needed, but ideally 3RW. You know, that crazy thing called depth.

    - Mentioned it yesterday, but you test drive some UFA’s from teams who might move them, so maybe you try and trade for Clowe (who fits our biggest need, is slumping so cost will be down, and the Sharks are struggling so they may move him for a prospect)

    -You send Penner some pancakes and get him to sign in the off season or you deal a late pick for him and sell him on being with the kids. He was great in the room and he can still score 25.

    Are we upset if this is our team next year?

    Clowe-Hall-Eberle
    Penner-Nuge-Yakupov
    Paajarvi-Lander-Brouwer
    Smyth-Horcoff-Harsky

    Shultz-Shultz
    Smid-Petry
    Fistric-Rundblad

  3. DBO says:

    Off topic, but here are MacT’s comments from the analytics conference via Friedman:

    “It is amazing, the passion these people have for hockey and the Oilers,” MacTavish said. “It’s definitely led to philosophical conversations about what we should be doing. A bunch of people talking about different ways of doing things leads to innovation. It’s good to surround ourselves with people who are rarely thinking like we are.”

    “I thought our guys would be at the top echelon of presenters [at the Sloan Conference].”

  4. ScottieA says:

    “In honor of Magnus Paajarvi, whose sideburns and waiver ineligibility means he’s probably playing his last games for Edmonton before heading to OKC” – LT

    Nothing like sending down one of the few guys who seems to be putting up points at the moment because of the utter fear you have over losing a marginal NHL player to the waiver wire…

  5. russ99 says:

    Ahem… Clapton? :) I love Blind Faith, creepy album cover aside.

    Also, for the VonTrapps- Salzburg is in the foothills of the Alps – they would have taken a mountainous route through central Austria and neutral Switzerland. They weren’t going to parade through Munich.

    Sad to see the Oilers brass punt yet another season when much is fixable. I’m glad that the natives are restless, been a long time coming.

  6. Clay says:

    First, RIP Stompin’ Tom. He was Canadiana at it’s best.

    Good post, LT. This season is just another kick in the junk to Oiler fans. We finally get the high-end talent we’ve been hoping for since ’92, and the team is still a loser because the parts that should be easy to get, Lowe and Co seem baffled by.

    So, 26 games to go, and for those still hoping for playoffs, the Oilers will need probably 33 more points to squeak into 8th place.

    They’ve got 21 points in the first 22 games. It’s not impossible, but it’s getting there.

  7. ScottieA says:

    russ99:

    Sad to see the Oilers brass punt yet another season when much is fixable. I’m glad that the natives are restless, been a long time coming.

    And thank God that Brownlee had the stones to call out Lowe and Tambi over their combined records as GMs over the last 13 years. THIRTEEN YEARS.

  8. wheatnoil says:

    ScottieA: And thank God that Brownlee had the stones to call out Lowe and Tambi over their combined records as GMs over the last 13 years. THIRTEEN YEARS.

    At this rate, the Song of Ice and Fire series will be finished before this rebuild is.

  9. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Good read LT.

    When the Oilers brass passed on Hamrlik it basically sent a sign out saying they are tanking.

    You don’t talk playoffs or pushing to get to the playoffs and pass on a clear upgrade to Peckham – Whitney – Potter

    Not to mention Hamrlik is a right handed defensmen who could play second PP.

    Just smells.

  10. tubes says:

    Has anyone mentioned that maybe they didn’t pick up Hamrlik because they didn’t want another vet in the room as they want the young kids to own it? As much as I love 10 & 94, I’ve also heard they aren’t as great as you’d think. Not all veterans are great around kids…

    And what a song. First time hearing Blind Faith and it won’t be the last…if I can get over those choppy riffs that guy won’t stop playing.

  11. ScottieA says:

    RE: Blind Faith and “Can’t Find My Way Home”. Love the live version that Winwood and Clapton did at MSG a few years back. Winwood still has the pipes.

  12. Woodguy says:

    DBO:
    Off topic, but here are MacT’s comments from the analytics conference via Friedman:

    “It is amazing, the passion these people have for hockey and the Oilers,” MacTavish said. “It’s definitely led to philosophical conversations about what we should be doing. A bunch of people talking about different ways of doing things leads to innovation. It’s good to surround ourselves with people who are rarely thinking like we are.”

    “I thought our guys would be at the top echelon of presenters [at the Sloan Conference].”

    One part of the article that made me think that the Oilers really have no clue about analytics was this:

    Edmonton runs a “contest on the team website — ‘Last Fan Standing.’ Basically, you choose a game on the schedule and answer five questions about it. The questions are pretty detailed:

    “Will there be a penalty call for hooking?” “Will both teams combine to score six or more goals?” “Will the final goal be scored in the third period?”

    The more correct answers, the more opportunity to enter prize draws. But, is there something extra to this contest?

    “You’re always looking to flush out some brainpower,” MacTavish says.

    Those kinds of questions are what a 12 year old expects to get from statistical analysis.

    Analytics is not a magic 8 ball.

    The only thing they’ll find with that kind of contest is who got lucky in their guesses.

    Frustrating.

  13. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    This talk of Hall moving over to center has got to stop, he’s not a center and this isn’t the 80′s anymore.

    Move him over so he can spend the next 2 or 3 years adjusting to the position?

    Talk about mismanaging an asset!

    I honestly would like to know the conversion rate on this? In fact, if anyone knows a winger that has done this in the last decade?

    Actually now that I’ve mentioned this, it seems like the Oilers brass would actually do something this daft!

    Especially when the upcoming draft is full of elite centers.

    Playing GM.

    Trade and sign Clowe

    Draft Barkov, Monahan or McKinnon or sign Getzlaf as a UFA

  14. Clay says:

    Wes Mantooth-11:
    This talk of Hall moving over to center has got to stop, he’s not a center and this isn’t the 80′s anymore.

    Move him over so he can spend the next 2 or 3 years adjusting to the position?

    Talk about mismanaging an asset!

    I honestly would like to know the conversion rate on this? In fact, if anyone knows a winger that has done this in the last decade?

    Actually now that I’ve mentioned this, it seems like the Oilers brass would actually do something this daft!

    Especially when the upcoming draft is full of elite centers.

    Playing GM.

    Trade and sign Clowe

    Draft Barkov, Monahan or McKinnon or sign Getzlaf as a UFA

    Isn’t most, if not all, of this talk being generated by fans or media, and not by the team? In other words, it doesn’t mean much.

    I’m with you; I don’t think it would be a good idea. But still, you have to see the appeal of a team that runs Hall – RNH as their top two centres. That’s pretty sexy. And, it solves a lot of problems as far as finding places for everyone in the top 9.

  15. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    russ99,

    It’s not Switzerland in the movie for reasons of cartography. Before you get all the way to Switzerland from Salzburg make a quick left and you’ll arrive in Italy like the real Von Trapps did.

  16. raventalon40 says:

    DBO:

    Are we upset if this is our team next year?

    Clowe-Hall-Eberle
    Penner-Nuge-Yakupov
    Paajarvi-Lander-Brouwer
    Smyth-Horcoff-Harsky

    Shultz-Shultz
    Smid-Petry
    Fistric-Rundblad

    Yes.

    Clowe doesn’t belong on the top line and Schultz-Schultz is a great second pairing but so-so first pairing. We are just projecting Schultz to get much better than he is now but that might not happen either (see sophomore slump, RNH). You are projecting them to be better than Smid Petry next year.

    Penner has been in the doghouse lately and we want to acquire him from LA to play on the 2nd line? Makes more sense to put Clowe that mean bastard on a line with Yakupov so that they can actually create offense without fear of team’s keying in on the inexperienced Russian.

    And Rundblad? He’s RFA next year so we are giving up assets to get this guy? Might as well develop that 6-7 position from within or sign an experienced UFA journeyman guy like a Staios type or Clark type.

    And why the fascination of everyone with playing Hall at center. We should acquire a damn center who plays the position!

    Tambellowe frustrate me.

  17. gangplank says:

    wheatnoil,

    pls dont bring it up! I am eagerly awaiting the next book

  18. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Clay,

    Good points Clay.

    I see it helping the organization internally, put not the product on the ice.

    Gregor’s interview with Tambellini has Tambellini pondering the idea, as did Stuafers as well, this is an actual internal discussion, and a scary one I might add.

    The Oilers have already burned through the ELC of Hall Eberle and RNH, they can’t afford to waste anymore time.

    Trade or draft a center

  19. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    raventalon40,

    Very good post.

  20. Gerta Rauss says:

    Did someone say ugly baby..?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rR8OpOlga-Y

  21. DerekZ says:

    All of you pining for Clowe realize that he’s on a steep decline, yes?

  22. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: One part of the article that made me think that the Oilers really have no clue about analytics was this:

    Edmonton runs a “contest on the team website — ‘Last Fan Standing.’ Basically, you choose a game on the schedule and answer five questions about it. The questions are pretty detailed:


    “Will there be a penalty call for hooking?” “Will both teams combine to score six or more goals?” “Will the final goal be scored in the third period?”

    The more correct answers, the more opportunity to enter prize draws. But, is there something extra to this contest?

    “You’re always looking to flush out some brainpower,” MacTavish says.

    Those kinds of questions are what a 12 year old expects to get from statistical analysis.

    Analytics is not a magic 8 ball.

    The only thing they’ll find with that kind of contest is who got lucky in their guesses.

    Frustrating.

    I too have concerns about the organizations lack of use of analytics, despite being present at conferences. However, in fairness, information gleaned from these comments don’t necessarily shed much light into how much the organization does or does not use analytics, nor how well they understand them. Organizations tend to play their cards pretty close to the chest in regards to which analytics they use and the online trivia prizes probably have nothing to do with it. Even the comment on flushing out some brainpower… I’d be hard-pressed to take that at face value. “Would you consider hiring someone if they continue to get those trivia answers right?” “Well, you’re always looking to flush out some brainpower.”

    I think there are plenty of reasons to have concerns about the Oilers lack of use of analytics (*cough* Brown!), but these comments are not one of them.

  23. spoiler says:

    Wes Mantooth-11:
    This talk of Hall moving over to center has got to stop, he’s not a center and this isn’t the 80′s anymore.

    Move him over so he can spend the next 2 or 3 years adjusting to the position?

    Talk about mismanaging an asset!

    I honestly would like to know the conversion rate on this? In fact, if anyone knows a winger that has done this in the last decade?

    Actually now that I’ve mentioned this, it seems like the Oilers brass would actually do something this daft!

    Especially when the upcoming draft is full of elite centers.

    Jamie Benn, last year. I’d say the conversion was successful.

    But I am still on the side that Hall is a natural winger.

    The upcoming draft isn’t full of elite centers; it is full of potential elite centers. Some might not make it, some will make it but won’t be elite, and some might take their goddamn time making it. It is impossible right now to say which prospects those are.

  24. spoiler says:

    Oh and I believe Anaheim has been trying one of Ryan or Perry at 2C, can’t remember which one off the top of my head.

  25. raventalon40 says:

    The team will need to make some tough decisions in the future.

    Smyth isn’t getting younger even though he can still contribute. Gagner is either going to be a big part of this team for years to come or he is just a prime trading chip. Same goes for Hemsky. Hemsky can produce offense but if RNH and Eberle and Hall are the future then Hemsky isn’t. I almost feel the same way about Petry. If it comes down to a choice between Smid, Petry and Schultz – I pick Smid and Schultz.

    Your trading chips:
    Gagner, Hemsky, Petry
    Potential trading chips:
    Paajarvi, Jones, Horcoff

    Problems with this:
    Paajarvi is coming on strong and trading Gagner and Horcoff doesn’t help with the problem at center. How many teams have 3 centers that they can afford to offload one?

    Calgary:
    Hudler,Stajan,Cervenka,Backlund
    Colorado:
    Duchene, O’Reilly, Stastny,Mitchell
    Columbus:
    Letestu,Brassard,Dubinsky,Anisimov,Umberger,Johansen
    Florida:
    Huberdeau,Mueller,Shore,Goc,Matthias
    Washington:
    Ribeiro,Backstrom,Perreault,Hendricks,Beagle,Johansson
    Winnipeg:
    Jokinen,Antropov,Burmistrov,Wellwood,Slater,Tangradi

    I’ve omitted all the teams with centers that would obviously not get traded such as Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, NYI, Pittsburgh, Philly.

    Given that current market, I’m leery of trading for anyone besides Stastny, Umberger, Matthias, Dubinsky or Stajan for the top two lines. Plus Stajan is in the division. WIth the divisional realignment Stastny might be available though. And moving anyone on our trading chips list for a Matthias would be overpayment anyway so we can forget about that.

    For center depth behind Horcoff and Belanger, I’d make a move for a Dubinsky, Goc, Slater, Beagle or Antropov. We haven’t had that depth since we traded Stoll and Brodziak.

    That makes the shortlist:

    Stastny,Umberger,Matthias,Dubinsky,Matthias,Goc,Slater,Beagle,Antropov

    for the trading list.

    We can speculate all we want about next summer’s UFAs but given Anaheim’s center depth I hardly see them walking away from Getzlaf so that Saku Koivu can be the #1 center.

    Not an impressive list.

    I’m not trading Gagner for away for anyone except Stastny on that list. If we’re gonna pry someone else away who isn’t on this list we will have to live with it being an overpayment and giving up other assets as well.

  26. boopronger says:

    “you’re sitting on a winning lottery ticket and you’re too much of a pussy to cash it in”

  27. Ribs says:

    Roman Hamrlik’s waiver moment is such a tell; the Oilers could have risked waivers on Whitney or Potter, they could have traded Peckham, hell they could have put Eager on the IR (I don’t think he’s right, just my opinion).

    This does make some sense but there is some history between Hamrlik and the Oilers. You can never count that out. The braintrust has been pretty careful about which guys are allowed to enter the Oilers dressing room when it comes to character/personality issues as of late.

  28. Ribs says:

    And if anyone missed the twitter updates….

    Eager likely healthy scratch

    Hartikainen not skating at practice

    Oilers lines at morning skate:
    91-89-14
    4-93-83
    94-20-64
    28-54-13

  29. raventalon40 says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=417574

    It’s funny because Montreal is rumoured to be in on Clowe but they just traded Cole and there are other rumours of Moen on the block.

  30. crude says:

    So the Rangers picked up old Hamrlik? You’d think the Oil would’ve picked him up just to be able to trade him to the Rangers, or Whitney even.

  31. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Would Detroit handle PRV differently?

  32. wheatnoil says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    Would Detroit handle PRV differently?

    If Paajarvi was on Detroit, he still wouldn’t have played is first NHL game yet.

  33. justDOit says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons,

    Zetterburg and Datsyk didn’t play an NHL game until at least their 22nd birthday.

  34. bookje says:

    Between the Oilers being at the “Let’s try Smid at Left Wing” stage and the fact that Ralph Macchio is now the same age as Mr. Miyagi (Pat Morita) was when the Karate Kid was filmed I am feeling a bit apathetic and wistful today.

    Hoping for a first line miracle tonight.

  35. justDOit says:

    “And the fans all go insane.”

    I don’t think Stompin’ Tom had any idea where the future of sports fandom was headed when he scribbled that line. RIP Thomas Charles Connors.

  36. Acumen says:

    Action plan for the Oiler faithful…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_qgVn-Op7Q

  37. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ah yes, the” Detroit model”.

    Leave young prospects in junior, the AHL or Europe while they get seasoning. They could do that because they had (1) outstanding managment (2) a superior NHL roster; (3) made smart trades; and (4)judicious FA signings.

    Please reread the above. We are only missing 4 elements to follow that model. We also would not be burning everyone’s ELC

  38. denny33 says:

    DBO,

    I think DBO is a long lost relative of mine…

    I share his exact philosophy on team construction…remove all the chaff – surely someone is going to want to make additions for a playoff run. Eager, Whitney, Khabby ( although perpetual injury probably will prevent that ) ….any return for these players is a big win.

    I think I am expecting to see Klefbom get a shot at the 6th spot although he has been not playing hockey for a very long time that might be wishful thinking. I would suggest Oscar – even without playing this year – will be an upgrade to Potter and Whitney.

    Agree with LT – has to be frustrating for Hall – coming from a winning org to the Oilers. And I am confused at not trying for Hamerlik like so many others have mentioned….part of the plan to finish really low again in this final – DEEP – draft year?

    If that is the case, why are we playing RNH with a bum shoulder and Dressing Taylor Hall when his leg does not appear 100%. Same with Eberle….

    Confusing signals from management?

    Craig Button has Valeri Nichushkin at #5 – that could be where we land – at 6’4 he looks enticing on paper. Craig also has a player I mentioned a few weeks ago – Darnel Nurse is a defenceman – and he has him rising to #6 overall…

    I will again throw out the idea of making a big splash and trading up to acquire Seth Jones – although I have to believe a few teams have that on their mind. Seth will be a Monster minute eater and along with Justin Schultz could solidify our defense for years.

    I also find it a sad state of affairs when a lot of people are yearning for the return of Sean Horcoff.

    Worse, I now find myself in that camp.

  39. cabbiesmacker says:

    Ribs:
    And if anyone missed the twitter updates….

    Eager likely healthy scratch

    Hartikainen not skating at practice

    Oilers lines at morning skate:
    91-89-14
    4-93-83
    94-20-64
    28-54-13

    Any word on whether Hall got the pieces of his femur and hip back from Clutterbuck’s thigh?

  40. mps91 says:

    Oil would be even more stupid than I thought if they deal or lose Jones or Smid. These are 2 heart and soul guys who like playing here. That is a rarity.

    Deadline options for me include: Khabi, Petrell, Eager, Potter, Whitney. Would consider dealing Belanger/Hemsky for the right package.

    2nd, enough of drafting wingers. If this is a lost season, we need to come out of it with a top centre prospect, or at very least a good D.

  41. dawgtoy says:

    Ribs:
    And if anyone missed the twitter updates….

    Eager likely healthy scratch

    Hartikainen not skating at practice

    Oilers lines at morning skate:
    91-89-14
    4-93-83
    94-20-64
    28-54-13

    OMG, I have so much respect for coach K, but these line combinations are terrible IMO. TERRIBLE!

  42. cabbiesmacker says:

    Bohologo:

    This sentiment is reminiscent of that scene in Goodwill Hunting when Ben Affleck the Southie tells Matt Damon the Genius Hooligan that the best part of his day is every morning when he swings by to pick him up for work, and maybe that’s the day Will isn’t there because he’s gone off to use his brains for a change.

    I wake up every morning hoping to see the disgrace that is Tambellini sacked. But as Katz is no doubt learning, and as Affleck suggested, it sure is hard to tell your friends you’d be happier if they weren’t around.

    I see what you did there. Let Lowe and ST go free so they can realize their true potential.. i.e. taking a Bantam AAA team somewhere they’ve never been before. I like it a lot.

    I have a tough time being upset at old ST when the Oilers are clearly a “management by committee” business. Do you really think he enjos the autonomy to make his own moves one way or another.

    He’s a meatshield. Nothing more. Nothing less.

  43. denny33 says:

    ScottieA,

    Thanks for that post. Great article by Brownlee..

    Required reading…

  44. cabbiesmacker says:

    dawgtoy: OMG, I have so much respect for coach K, butthese line combinations are terrible IMO. TERRIBLE!

    It’s like he put the jersey numbers in a blender and ……oh wait. Management influence at work.

  45. cabbiesmacker says:

    mps91:

    Deadline options for me include: Khabi, Petrell, Eager, Potter, Whitney. Would consider dealing Belanger/Hemsky for the right package.

    So you think the teams getting low on tape then?

  46. godot10 says:

    Wes Mantooth-11:
    Good read LT.

    When the Oilers brass passed on Hamrlik it basically sent a sign out saying they are tanking.

    You don’t talk playoffs or pushing to get to the playoffs and pass on a clear upgrade to Peckham – Whitney – Potter

    Not to mention Hamrlik is a right handed defensmen who could play second PP.

    Just smells.

    Hamrlik is NOT a right-handed defensemen. He is a left shot. He has played both sides in his career.

  47. denny33 says:

    Browlee highlights the 13 year management run by Lowe and Tambo….record speaks for itself.

    Then i decided to peruse the Edmonton Sun for Oiler articles….those articles could have been written by the Oilers PR staff….that is bad homer stuff. That might explain, partially, how Lowe and Tambo have been allowed to run so long?

  48. justDOit says:

    dawgtoy: OMG, I have so much respect for coach K, butthese line combinations are terrible IMO. TERRIBLE!

    He’s possibly keeping a less-than-100% Hall from drawing the main checking assignments, and he might be sheltering the 4-93-14 line from a shelling that’s more than likely to come from the Wings tonight. So if they lose (if…), the attention will be on Krueger rather than the young stars.

    He’s probably also taking this opportunity to see how high 91 can really fly. He’s responded well to an increased work load so far, so let’s see where his high water mark is.

    I really don’t see any combination of these numbers that puts any more doubt in a Wings victory, but please feel free to offer your line combos. We might see RK switch to your suggestions mid-game, and you can then come back with a ‘told you so’ for all of us.

  49. DeadmanWaking says:

    This morning I hardly know where to start. Too many ants, and another nice post by LT. First step was to enlarge my typing input box with that little control in the bottom right corner. I don’t normally bother for just a thousand words.

    Yesterday evening I began reading What I Talk About When I Talk About Running by Haruki Murakami, where he investigates the relationship between his running habit and his writing profession. It’s mainly about the running. I’ll read some of his fiction soon, which is reputed to wander off to talk about strange things for no apparent reason at all. The back cover of this small hardcover is splattered with fulsome praise by all the MSM usual suspects: Christian Science Monitor, Salon, Newsday, NYT Book Review. Wow. Then my reptile brain notices that there is thin magical writing somewhere on the page. Oh look, by conscious brain says after seeking out the invisible letters, the irridescent pink-orange banner across the top of the page conceals thin yellow lettering in the kind of frail Helvetica that never leaves the room without first plucking its eyebrows, all the better to disappear into the public anonymity of the well groomed. What does this lettering say? I squint more closely. “Acclaim for After Dark“. Nifty, that’s some other book I’m not actually holding.

    Maybe it’s not such a well known fact that libraries in Japan are uncomfortable to sheath a book in glowing and immodest accolades. In the most traditional of libraries, for these unseemly modern books–if they suffer to acquire any–book jackets are slyly shifted to the previous book on the shelf; each book is thus wrapped in a book jacket that praises the next book over, which better accords to the traditional standards of Japanese modesty.

    Actually, I made that up.

    Haruki’s foreward begins:

    There’s a wise saying that goes like this: A real gentleman never discusses women he’s broken up with or how much tax he’s paid. Actually, this is a total lie. I just made it up. Sorry! But if there really were such a saying, I think one more condition for being a gentleman would be keeping quiet about what you do to stay healthy. A gentleman shouldn’t go on and on about what he does to stay fit. At least that’s how I see it.

    I don’t know what to say about gentlemen in the publishing industry who dress a book up with inscrutable fonts that mirror Wired magazine back in its neonatal, psychedelic glory. A five page major story typeset yellow on orange with an anorexic font weight? Yes, I nearly heaved that issue across the room. Enough is enough. Terrible twos.

    It’s quite possible that in the Asteroid aftermath my impatience fuse just fizzled out and smoked and melted completely, and some critical faculty required to strike while the iron is hot detached itself from the orbital mothership–instantaneously neglecting that gravity had bent that velocity vectors at that lofty planetary remove into a circle–and thus directly plunging to a fiery consumption in the wispy Mach soup sheathing the blue marble, leaving me stranded up there without it, up there where Kubrick filmed his trippiest movie. “Now don’t get hasty Dave over the loss of a few crew-members; the monoliths of pre-destiny grind exceedingly fine.”

    Back to Haruki for just a second. Running functions in his life as the grinding hub of consistency, from which all other virtues flow.

    Right now I’m aiming at increasing the distance I run, so speed is less of an issue. As long as I can run a certain distance, that’s all I care about. Sometimes I run fast when I feel like it, but if I increase the pace I shorten the distance I run, the point being to let the exhilaration I feel at the end of each run carry over to the next day. This is the same sort of tack I find necessary when writing a novel. I stop every day right at the point where I feel I can write more. Do that, and the next day’s work goes surprisingly smoothly. I think Ernest Hemingway did something like that. To keep on going, you have to keep up the rhythm. This is the important thing for long term projects. Once you set the pace, the rest will follow. The problem is getting the flywheel to spin at a set speed–and to get to that point takes as much concentration and effort as you can manage.

    Excellent advice, with an unmistakable Japanese marinade: find exactly the point where you feel you might possibly continue and Stop Right There. In most countries, when someone discovers a secret sauce, they quickly throw away the recipe before anyone else discovers it. For example, Grand Marnier claims to be have kept its recipe secret for 150 years (but as an pirate knows, the best secret is the widely disseminated secret that doesn’t really exist). In Japan it was different. I’m pretty sure the sinking of Atlantis was just the beginning of a cover up of something the Japanese don’t even want us to begin to suspect. So there continues to be these little things, such as stopping at exactly the place where you think you could continue, that only the Japanese can properly do.

    A few weeks back I thought I’d discretely sequester my un-topical tirades away from the blustery game threads. The inconsistency ate at my nerves. Score one point for Haruki. Consistency is king, and LT is the king of consistency. (Only a shocking blunder on draft day allowed LT to slip through the clutches of the US Postal Service. Many suspect substance abuse.)

    Here’s a stray thought on the New 100% Every time a stock market experiences an elevator drop that strikes fear deep down into the pit of your stomach, the media runs an image of a harried and stressed-to-the-max trader down in the pits watching his life fortune evaporate in a Towering Inferno puff of smoke. It’s a classic image: so much cortisol behind the eyes you can almost see in a still image the stress swirling into the very pores of his being, seeping into his skin, and baking his stress wrinkles into permanent trace.

    The point here is that I rarely feel the least damn bit of sympathy, any more than I would for a lippy twelve year old with the secret hobby of playing with matches in a neglected corner of a straw mattress or bomb factory. They eke out that little bit of upside, elbowing out the man beside them for all they’re worth, and day by day their fortune mounts. Then one day it all catches fire, as if this weren’t entirely foreseeable. And all along the lippy twelve year old is thinking to himself “I’m not like the charred remains of those other lippy fat kids who play with matches where matches don’t belong; unlike them I’m good at what I do.”

    This is just one little corner of what I lump in the category of winner-take-all dynamics. It’s also true in sports. That famous professional athlete is very, very good, but also very, very lucky. I think in baseball, half of all talented pitching prospects are lost to rotator cuff depredations, bearing no reflection on talent, or drive, or character, or perseverance. It’s basically just fucking luck. I think Woodguy wrote the other day that the main thing we lose track of in sports is luck. It’s so true.

    Okay, so that’s life: there but for the grace of god go I. Everyone who has anything owes it to the dice of fate careening over their head with the unheard zing of the beach scene in Saving Private Ryan. What I dislike intensely are those who pass through the needle of privilege (e.g. Wall Street pit traders and professional athletes) without even noticing the man with the black hood rolling the dice. Whitney had a great gift. But he also had luck. And then his luck ran out. Instead of being grateful for the long run he enjoyed, he’s seems wrapped up in thinking he has somehow earned the right to be out there on the ice continuing to do what he’s good at, while everyone politely ignores what he can no longer do–as if any prospect was ever given such a blank cheque. When Yzerman played on one leg, he went out and earned it all over again. If a little fleck of cholesterol worms into the wrong pulsating vessel, I’ll never write a clever word ever again. End of story. It’s hard to be grateful for what you have, because it’s so fucking scary.

    Last night I watched with my squeeze Living in Emergency:
    Stories of Doctors Without Borders
    . One might at the outset begin to suspect that it’s a Medecins Sans Frontieres puff piece. Well, some people complained that Trainspotting glorified heroine use. Really? Were we watching the same fucking movie? I actually had to ask several of my friends if they detected the faintest trace of glorification. I mean in between babies so neglected the movie makers had to graft the baby into the movie using animation techniques to prevent the audience from throwing up; in between the two-handed lunge into the dirtiest toilet in Scotland, freshly tithed; in between turning someone’s best gust linen into a five pound diaper bag; in between the brawling and cheating and lying and steeling and inflicting of petty misery for no other reason than to alleviate boredom.

    Living is such a terribly conflicted movie–honest enough if you think for yourself–about a certain type of person addicted to doing what they can in the face of the worst human misery, yet going quietly insane about their complete impotence in the face of the larger situation–and knowing full well this the deal after the first two weeks of their first mission. These people are as addicted to salvation as the bomb defusal guy in The Hurt Locker is addicted to adrenaline. One fellow says straight up that most doctors sign up for MSF to escape something. Sometimes it’s just hollowness and cynicism about living the quiet comfortable life, sometimes it’s something more.

    We were rewarded for our movie selection with vivid “footage” of an amputation of a black necrotic foot (now having progressed halfway up the calf)–the kind of means-business blackness that quickly reminds a person that black people mainly come in shades of deep mahogany brown–rewarded with an efficient “let’s get this done” amputation, not the least bit delicate, with one of those two-handled guillotine wires, right in the middle of consuming our lumpy-sausage pasta dinner. (The other night my squeeze joked that regular Lowetiders have probably already twigged that I live in a basement with a small lemon tree I’m extremely fond of–a real squeeze would have suspended my movie and cuisine pairing privileges a long time ago. For the record, I’ve selected this usage in opposition to how people such as Orson Scott Card have expropriated “marriage” as a public facet of social morality, to the detriment of its personal domain.)

    Back to Haruki again; this being his writing style, as well.

    I just run. I run in a void. Or maybe I should put it the other way: I run in order to acquire a void. But as you might expect, an occasional thought will slip into this void. People’s minds can’t be a complete blank. Human beings’ emotions are not strong or consistent enough to sustain a vacuum. What I mean is, the kinds of thoughts and ideas that invade my emotions as I run remain subordinate to that void. Lacking content, they are just random thoughts that gather around the central void.

    Of course, this is metaphor, too. And I also write to acquire a void. That would be a marathon digression, so we’ll leave it for another day.

    Forgive me if once again buggering fair use is my preferred ascension to the pinnacle of flattery.

    As I mentioned before, competing against other people, whether in daily life or in my field of work, is just not the sort of lifestyle I’m after. Forgive me for stating the obvious, but the world is made up of all kinds of people. Other people have their own values to live by, and the same holds true with me. These differences give rise to disagreements, and the combination of these disagreements can give rise to even greater misunderstandings. As a result, sometimes people are unfairly criticized. This goes without saying. It’s not much fun to be misunderstood or criticized, but a rather painful experience that hurts people deeply.

    As I’ve gotten older, though, I’ve gradually come to the realization that this kind of pain and hurt is a necessary part of life. If you think about it, it’s precisely because people are different from other that they’re able to create their own independent selves. Take me as an example. It’s precisely my ability to detect some aspects of a scene that other people can’t, to feel differently than others and choose words that differ from theirs, that’s allowed me to write stories that are mine alone. And because of this we have the extraordinary situation in which quite a few people read what I’ve written. So the fact that I’m me and no one else is one of my greatest assets. Emotional hurt is the price a person has to pay in order to be independent.

    It wasn’t fun writing my post yesterday, as I knew it was contrary to the general mood (and the mood of the general). I felt the whole while that I was choosing between mud and stones, inbound and not outbound. Except for my paradoxical Cinderella Flakes, it was a dead bust. Just one good ant. Even the editor defeated me: my five minutes of recidivist glory expired when my effort to locate the markup with the missing terminal slash by means of text search wrapped around to search the entire thread (as my post all by itself wasn’t a large enough mall to spit me out disoriented onto the wrong street).

    I’m pretty sure at this exact moment I could continue for a long while yet. Ah, but the secret of success is to defer overstaying your welcome until the next opportunity–or something like that. Having the wrong skin colour, I fear this is advice I will never master.

  50. FastOil says:

    Perhaps the most concerning thing is Tambellini’s comments that there aren’t trades to be had in “today’s NHL”. I hope that Katz, a self proclaimed lover of making deals, recognizes he needs a skilled horse trader as his GM.

    I still remember ST scoffing at someone wanting a deal for Eberle on Oil Change. It came across to me as somewhat insulting, which I think is not a great thing to be aired publicly, it’s not a very big pool of guys that he has to deal with and any alienation can only be bad for the team.

    I get the impression that when his colleagues call and throw a wild suggesting out just to see if it’s their lucky day (like Johnson for Carter) he freaks out and hangs up the phone. Thing is it happens for some GM’s. We need a guy like that, who hopefully doesn’t like coke machines and doesn’t rely on “reputation” and prefers performance.

  51. godot10 says:

    Clowe and Penner are bad ideas. You get rid of these guys, like Sather did, when they turn 30 something, and look for the next Clowe.

    Though, unfortunately, that requires a competent pro scouting staff.

    Hall at centre is a horrible idea. Take the best left wing in hockey, and stifle all his strengths and instincts with a centre’s defensive responsbilities.

  52. VanOil says:

    For the last two seasons I have liked games against Detroit as teaching moments. The kids have a tremendous respect for the team and often start to emulate things they see there hero’s do. I wish I had an isolation camera on Nuge tonight. If he see’s Datsyuk try a nifty backdoor steal in the first I count on him trying to do the same or similar thing by the third. Watching such a talented player learn for the best is fun. Hopefully one year soon it will turn into showing off for the best and smacking them with a 7-1 beat down. If our management can’t learn from Detroit at least our kids can.

    Gagner has a similar history of raising his game to show off to his buddies in Chicago. The skill I would like the Oilers to pickup from Chicago is shooting low at net. While shot blocking is the current scourge of the NHL in terms of slowing scoring a low shot can be effective, even if it won’t beat many goailes first time.

    From the point it would require a saucer like pass to achieve but from the slot it is easier to preform. Every team, player and commentator talks about getting more shots, going to the goal and getting greasy/garbage goals as the ticket to scoring in the NHL. There is no greasy garbage to clean up for a goal if you always aim top cheddar, its going over the net or getting gloved. (see RNH) Chicago has been been particularly effective this year in in first shooting low and the then cleaning up the rebound. I hope Oilers can learn and incorporate this skill.

    Does anyone know if there is any data available, similar to what Staples uses for where shot originate from, that shows where shots are aimed (5 hole et.) and even better on what happens next. (rebound to the slot, to the corner, frozen by goalie…) so I can backup or refute my whimsical theory?

  53. denny33 says:

    godot10,

    Nothing can be worse than someone paying Eric Belanger to play hockey for them…

    Here is what David Staples said yesterday:

    ***********************************************

    Eric Belanger,

    At centre, the defensively-sound Shawn Horcoff is missed. Without the Oilers captain in the line-up, Eric Belanger has again had to step up against tougher competition, and for all the faceoffs he wins, he’s struggled mightily, making 2.8 mistakes on scoring chances against per 15.

    That’s the most mistakes per 15 seen from a centre in the last several seasons.

    ***************************************************************************************
    That is the most mistakes per 15 seen from a centre in the last several seasons!!

    All these mistakes from 3rd line competition in the NW division….

    And he does not score ANY goals you say……

    In all seriousness – what could be worse than Eric Belanger?

  54. FrankenOil says:

    One major thing to think about is that if Oilers Mgmt has decided to divest themselves of Horcoff, they could conceivably trade him while absorbing a portion of his cap hit. This, imo would be better asset management as the Horcoff has real value to good organizations.. Ideas as to who could use him and who might be willing to take on around 2.75 million cap hit with his actual salary being 2 million next year, 1.5 the year after?

    I think Horcoff is good value for that amount to a competent, well-run team. I would hope the the Oilers are willing to take on the dead cap space for two years (which if, again, they want Horcoff gone) in order to at least get something for him as opposed to just buying him out and getting nothing in return.

    If we are thinking about ideas for shaking things up for next year, how about Hemsky and Whitney for Dustin Jeffrey (Big 6′-3″ C) and Simon Despres at the deadline? I read (or saw it somewhere reputable) that Despres is available. We would get a Big C and a Big, mobile, young d-man? Pitt gets a winger to play with Crosby and a d-man they are familiar with. Look to deal Belanger/Eager for anything (or buy them out in the summer), deal Jones and then wait for the summer and chase one of Penner, Clarkson, Clowe and offer them 5 Mil/Year. Sign to a Vet UFA C like maybe Handzus or and then maybe look for a nasty guy to play on that LW 4th line like Eric Nystrom We could then run out something like:

    93-4-14
    89-64-Big UFA Winger
    UFA C-MPS-Harti
    Jeffrey/Brown/Nystrom

    Extras:
    Smyth
    Lander

  55. G Money says:

    VanOil:

    Does anyone know if there is any data available, similar to what Staples uses for where shot originate from, that shows where shots are aimed (5 hole et.) and even better on what happens next. (rebound to the slot, to the corner, frozen by goalie…) so I can backup or refute my whimsical theory?

    Only stuff I’ve ever seen is here:

    http://hockeyanalytics.com/shot-quality/

    And it’s quite out of date. I think tracking shot quality is just damn tough to do because it’s so labour intensive to assess 40 to 70 events for every single game.

  56. VanOil says:

    G Money: Only stuff I’ve ever seen is here:

    http://hockeyanalytics.com/shot-quality/

    And it’s quite out of date.I think tracking shot quality is just damn tough to do because it’s so labour intensive to assess 40 to 70 events for every single game.

    Thanks I will check it out. As a Hockey fan that watches a lot of soccer I have always been a fan of the the low shoot intentionally generating a rebound. Hopelessly hoping soccer would turn into hockey I guess.

  57. wordbird says:

    gawd this sucks.
    likely missing the playoffs again sucks. guess i was guilty of believing the “hype” and drinking the koolaid.

    so we have a team with talented, promising players. but as a team, not good enough to overcome it’s flaws/holes. stuck record, but that’s on management.

    how does MacT go from being the coach, wishing he had better pieces, to upper management, not giving his current coach better pieces?

    makes no sense.

  58. Zipdot says:

    spoiler: Jamie Benn, last year. I’d say the conversion was successful.

    But I am still on the side that Hall is a natural winger.

    Let’s remember Hall’s own comments: he said he preferred left wing to centre. Translation: “don’t fucking play me at centre, I’m a fucking winger!!!”

  59. 42 percent body fat says:

    cant wait until we trade gagner and set the rebuild back another three years.

    So Gagner will not be worth more than 4M if he continues this pace and along with hall become the first oilers to get ppg over a decade.

    But Eberle as a 65 point guy is worth 6M, when we still had years to sign him short term and still keep him an RFA.

    He is now statistically the best 5×4, 4×5, and second 5×5 player we have. Im not going to go off on a hate nuge here because I like him, but how many of you would resign him at 6M next year. He has yet in any major junior, or NHL level scored at an elite level 5×5. His scoring has mostly been done at the PP.

    I said it last year before both were signed, Eberle should have been signed for two years at 4.5 and Gagner for four years at 3.9. Would be in a much better situation than we are now.

  60. Rondo says:

    There is no reason why you would think now all of a sudden Oilers will be making the right moves.

    Management is flawed and will continue down the same road.

    Nothing will change until Lowe and Tambo are gone.

    Fans are deluding themselves thinking it will change.

  61. cabbiesmacker says:

    godot10:

    Hall at centre is a horrible idea.Take the best left wing in hockey, and stifle all his strengths and instincts with a centre’s defensive responsbilities.

    I’m sure you didn’t type those words and not expect a reaction. So I’ll give you one.

    “Pardon me sir but how are the drapes going down?”

  62. Zipdot says:

    cabbiesmacker: So you think the teams getting low on tape then?

    ROFLMAO

  63. godot10 says:

    FrankenOil:
    One major thing to think about is that if Oilers Mgmt has decided to divest themselves of Horcoff, they could conceivably trade him while absorbing a portion of his cap hit. This, imo would be better asset management as the Horcoff has real value to good organizations.. Ideas as to who could use him and who might be willing to take on around 2.75 million cap hit with his actual salary being 2 million next year, 1.5 the year after?

    If the Oilers buyout Horcoff, it is because they don’t want any part, zero, of Horcoff’s $5.5 million cap hit in the last year of the contract. Two years from now, the cap is scheduled to be $60 million dollars. Even $2.75 million is nearly 5% of the potential cap. The Oilers have talent who can potentially draw offer sheets…Nugent-Hopkins, Schultz, in that time frame. Horcoff’s last year makes it hard for the Oilers to be agressive pursuing a good defensemen this summer, and to be able to sleep at night worrying about an offer sheet to Justin Schultz and/or Jeff Petry the summer after.

    If you pencil in a $4-$4.5 million dollar Smid deal (like mc79 expects), another $5.5 million dollar D to fix the defense for next year, both Petry and Schultz are RFA’s the following summer. The last year of Horcoff’s contract is a potential migraine then, if you don’t do the compliance buyout this summer.

    I

  64. Magnus says:

    If I had to guess, I would say Gagner is gone at the deadline, Horcoff gets bought out and management goes hard after Getzlaf over the summer. Not a bad plan if it works, but that’s a big if.

  65. ScottieA says:

    denny33,

    Chris VandeVelde

  66. ScottieA says:

    Magnus:
    If I had to guess, I would say Gagner is gone at the deadline, Horcoff gets bought out and management goes hard after Getzlaf over the summer. Not a bad plan if it works, but that’s a big if.

    Seems idiotic enough for Tambo to try. Blow up our already thin centre position for an IF.

  67. rickithebear says:

    VanOil: Does anyone know if there is any data available, similar to what Staples uses for where shot originate from,

    Ninja’s sure shot was a great check for players and goalies at all three strengths.
    However the last couple of days when i went to revisit fistric mostly low pecentage shots against. it was not functioning.

    Some one did a quick study of shots for one year realitive to the 7 holes on a goalie.
    Blocker side was 2% less effective than glove side for the 3 levels:
    Shooting %
    -Above pad 11% & 13%
    -below arm tight body side 27% & 29%
    -Above arm and Shoulder 65% & 67%
    - 5 hole 17%
    These are from memory cause i could not find the paper.

    Now for a general value of shot go to page 8 on Allan ryders shot Quality.
    There is a clear graph of curves for shot success for shot type relative to distance.

    Take steps 1-4 on page 9 to get an aggregate ie cumulative value for shots yielded.

    CBS gives out an elevation view of 5 quadrants of the goal and what quadrant the shot is in in each gamecenter report. Usually an X.Y co-ordinate display of shot and shot type. is also presented. From this we can generate a table of data similiar to Sure shot.
    -x,y establishes distance from net three columns
    - shot type establishes the curve to use to give an expected goal value for the shot.
    - Elevation gives an expected save rate for the shot.
    Include missed shots and blocked shots we have an aggregate corsi value.

    I wish i knew how to generate the tables of data.

    I forgot to add link for ryders work but someone was kind enough

  68. Zipdot says:

    DeadmanWaking: Yesterday evening I began reading What I Talk About When I Talk About Running by Haruki Murakami, where he investigates the relationship between his running habit and his writing profession. It’s mainly about the running. I’ll read some of his fiction soon, which is reputed to wander off to talk about strange things for no apparent reason at all.

    Dude, I love Haruki Murakami. I first read “A Wild Sheep Chase” and that had me reading a couple others, and I have a few left to read.

  69. dawgtoy says:

    justDOit,

    These lines didn’t work against Cbus, wondering what would make anyone believe they will suddenly work against better competition? I’m not an “I told you so” kinda guy, therefore I’d rather be wrong and the team win. If so I’d be the first to admit it. I’d love to see Yak and Belanger light it up tonight., but we’ve seen that movie already and I know how it ends. You may well be 100% right in regards to trying to protect Hall, Ebs and Nuge. Clearly Hall and Ebs are hurting, and likely so is the Nuge, but simply shifting people around might actually make matters worse. The bottom line is I hope they win. I hope they prove me, and every other naysayer wrong, but Belanger and Yakupov together just doesn’t work for me on any level. There is no logical explanation to that mess IMO.

  70. delooper says:

    bookje:
    Between the Oilers being at the “Let’s try Smid at Left Wing” stage and the fact that Ralph Macchio is now the same age as Mr. Miyagi (Pat Morita) was when the Karate Kid was filmed I am feeling a bit apathetic and wistful today.

    Hoping for a first line miracle tonight.

    I think I’m going to buy a litre or two of some nice ice cream on the way home today. **ALL** for **ME**. ME!!

  71. Zipdot says:

    dawgtoy: Clearly Hall and Ebs are hurting, and likely so is the Nuge,

    Nuge discussed his injury a while back. He’s definitely got a shoulder injury but he’s waiting to get it fixed like Hall did…

  72. slipper says:

    One might imagine an epic run of excellence in Edmonton over the past seven season for fans to be so eager to flush or send away a 23 year old with nearly 400 NHL games experience and who’s scoring at a PPG clip.

    The thought of the prime draft picks and blue chip defensive prospects coming back the other way already has me salivating.

  73. justDOit says:

    dawgtoy,

    Eager is out, CVV is in, and Smyth isn’t playing center, so I assume you’re not talking about the bottom six.

    As for Yak, he’s been missing his assignments in the Oilers’ end and I think he’s being put there as a ‘least worse’ placement option. If they do put in a good performance tonight, and are still hanging around in the 3rd like a Swiss Oly team, throwing Yak up with the talent for a shift or two really puts a wrinkle in the other coach’s plan, and he’s a great option to have on the PP.

    The entire coaching strategy reminds me of a friend who was hired to manage a small company. Previous managers had not done their due diligence wrt current employees’ references and qualifications, and out of about 20 people, only 4 or 5 were actually valuable. My friend didn’t have a good time of it.

    I would not want this coaching job.

  74. regwald says:

    justDOit:
    dawgtoy,

    I would not want this coaching job.

    It’s a 1 year internship … year 2 is all about becoming an unemployed consultant while they bring in the next year’s intern to pretend that mgmt is making a dfifference.

  75. justDOit says:

    regwald: It’s a 1 year internship … year 2 is all about becoming an unemployed consultant while they bring in the next year’s intern to pretend that mgmt is making a dfifference.

    I LOLed over that one. Here’s looking forward to a TSN panel with Ralphy on it. Well spoken, great hockey mind.

  76. FrankenOil says:

    godot10,

    I would arue, that the cap 2 years from now is a complete unknown. Based on current chatter, I have heard (from Friedman among others) that the cap could go back to 70 in 2 summers since revenues seem to be recovering quickly. Lombardi was quoted as saying that the biggest issue facing teams will be how to manage their rosters with the cap dip this summer and then it potentially going back up the following summer. I am advocating that Horcoff has tangible trade value if the Oilers wanted to pursue that route.

    As for the costs to fix the D, as much as it would set the blueline back, paying Smid 4 to 4.5 is probably an overpay. A lot of commenters have been posting comparable contracts for Smid and the all see to fit in the 3.25-3.75 range. I can honestly see a scenario where they let Laddie walk (or trade him) and try and replace him on the cheap while trying to bridge the gap to Klefbom (or one of the other D prospects) with a couple of low budget UFA’s (Alex Sulzer) filling out the top-6 along with Klefbom and Fedun or Peckham fighting for the 7th spot. I am not saying I agree, but the orgizational track record shows this is probably going to be the case.

  77. denny33 says:

    godot10,

    Good points…I think Horcoff has to be bought out.

  78. denny33 says:

    ScottieA,

    Damn! You’re Right!!

  79. regwald says:

    justDOit,

    MacT was good on the panel. Sure beats Milbury and Keenan that’s for sure. I hope they keep RK around for a few years. Stability is required on the bench. This revolving door of coaches is another symptom of BAD mgmt and BAD decisions by mgmt.

  80. justDOit says:

    regwald,

    I hope RK stays too, but if mgmt expects him to turn this lineup into a contender there will be an inevitable showdown.

  81. regwald says:

    justDOit,

    Or breakdown by the coach. lol

  82. raventalon40 says:

    Man our lines are pretty hurting. I tried making my own lines just now and they stink just as bad as the ones they are talking about playing tonight.

    Tambellini is hanging Krueger out to dry over here.

  83. regwald says:

    raventalon40:
    Man our lines are pretty hurting. I tried making my own lines just now and they stink just as bad as the ones they are talking about playing tonight.

    Tambellini is hanging Krueger out to dry over here.

    But he will bring another top 5 draft pick into camp in September. Just have to stick with the plan. lol

  84. Captain Obvious says:

    raventalon40:
    Man our lines are pretty hurting. I tried making my own lines just now and they stink just as bad as the ones they are talking about playing tonight.

    Tambellini is hanging Krueger out to dry over here.

    This is bang on. Talk about the right combination of lines is beside the point. There is no formula that can turn the bottom two lines into NHL lines. That said, if I was running the show I’d call up
    Arcobello and send VDV down to the farm. Then I would run:

    Hall–Arco–Eberle
    Yakupov–Gagner–Hemsky
    Paajarvi–Hopkins–Smyth
    Jones–Belanger–Random piece of garbage

    That’s still terrible but it is what I would do.

  85. godot10 says:

    FrankenOil:
    godot10,

    I would arue, that the cap 2 years from now is a complete unknown. Based on current chatter, I have heard (from Friedman among others) that the cap could go back to 70 in 2 summers since revenues seem to be recovering quickly. Lombardi was quoted as saying that the biggest issue facing teams will be how to manage their rosters with the cap dip this summer and then it potentially going back up the following summer. I am advocating that Horcoff has tangible trade value if the Oilers wanted to pursue that route.

    For a team facing the potential of offer sheets to Petry and Schultz in just 15 months, wishing/gambling the cap is going to be more than $60 million dollars for 2014-2015 is a risky and foolhardy assumption.

    Contracts can no longer be buried. It is unfortunate that compliance buyouts have to occur by this summer.

    Right now Nugent-Hopkins is headed toward a 2nd transitional Duschene type of contract, but he could go supernova next year, and then one would have three big new contracts (Petry, Schultz, and Nugent-Hopkins) all at once.

    Fixing the defense next year means signing Smid. Smid and whoever replaces Whitney will cost roughly the same amount as Whitney and Smid cost this year.

    A real defenseman costs $5 million something per season in the UFA market, and perhaps $1 million less if it comes via a trade.

    Without another defensemen, this team is not progressing next year.

    I like Horcoff, but the last year of that contract puts the Oilers in a precarious position cap wise. Both Petry and Schultz will probably cost $5 million.

    So you have to budget $20 million for the top 4 D, 15 months from now, if you want to have a competitive team. Smid, Schultz, Petry, and the 4th legit D they have to acquire this summer.

    I don’t see how you do that and have Horcoff still on the cap.

  86. slipper says:

    denny33:
    godot10,

    Good points…I think Horcoff has to be bought out.

    HAS TO BE

    And then trade Gagner AND THEN go whale hunting.

    I want a center with a comb over and a cowboy hat, personally.

    Katz might even send the braintrust out to court him with the private jet. That was a riot last time, right?

  87. DBO says:

    I think some of you are missing the point on bringing in players like Clowe and Penner. Yes they are not world beaters, but for that reason they will come at a discount. We can’t afford any more high end players because with Nuge and Yak and Shultz getting big dough in 2-3 years, our cap will be tight. So Penner on a $2 mill, Clowe on a $3 mill is in the realm of not too much dollars while still having the ability to bring scoring, physical play and size (which we sorely need), and not hampering our Cap.

    Value for your dollar and complementary players to our top high end kids. Penner and Clowe fit the bill.

    As for our lines tonight, I like them more then most of you. Not saying they are awesome, but our bottom 6 is a mess and you are picking the best of a bad bunch. But Jones and Brown with Vande will be way better then last games 4th line. And While Yak will not score 5v5 with blackhole Belanger, he will get PP time and he will have two old dudes to at least play D, and also means the top two lines will see all tough matchups so as to shelter Yak., which is not a bad thing.

  88. justDOit says:

    raventalon40,

    How about:

    4-93-13
    28-89-83
    94-20-14
    91-54-64

    With 64 83 rotating every 2nd shift. I doubt you came up with anything as whacky as this!

  89. godot10 says:

    FrankenOil:
    godot10,

    As for the costs to fix the D, as much as it would set the blueline back, paying Smid 4 to 4.5 is probably an overpay. A lot of commenters have been posting comparable contracts for Smid and the all see to fit in the 3.25-3.75 range. I can honestly see a scenario where they let Laddie walk (or trade him) and try and replace him on the cheap while trying to bridge the gap to Klefbom (or one of the other D prospects) with a couple of low budget UFA’s (Alex Sulzer) filling out the top-6 along with Klefbom and Fedun or Peckham fighting for the 7th spot. I am not saying I agree, but the orgizational track record shows this is probably going to be the case.

    What are you telling Hall by doing that. We aren’t going to sign Smid, and we aren’t going to acquire a legit top 4 defenseman this summer, because we are sentimental about Shawn Horcoff.

    The Oilers should want Schultz, Petry, Smid, and acquisition as a top 4 next year. Nick Schultz as #5D, if they want to be competitive.

    If you crunch the numbers, and err on the “we-are-not-as-math-challenged-as-Dale-Tallon” side, then I don’t see how you CANNOT buy out Horcoff.

    Tallon had no money for Garrison and Weiss because of all his other stupid contracts.

    He may be a great talent scout, but he can’t add and is horribly short-sighted.

  90. DBO says:

    godot10,

    I think they do, but not this coming year but the year after. Next year no real cap issues at all, even with the Cap drop. Horc is still useful as a 3rd or 4th line centre. His money is no issue next year, and it gives Lander one more year of development and either a trade or UFA to fill the gap in 2 yrs when Horcoff is bought out.

  91. Gerta Rauss says:

    The 2 compliance buyouts can be used this summer or next summer.

    Carry on.

  92. godot10 says:

    DBO:
    godot10,

    I think they do, but not this coming year but the year after. Next year no real cap issues at all, even with the Cap drop. Horc is still useful as a 3rd or 4th line centre. His money is no issue next year, and it gives Lander one more year of development and either a trade or UFA to fill the gap in 2 yrs when Horcoff is bought out.

    But there is NO compliance (penalty-free) buyout the following summer, and since Horcoff’s contract was frontloaded, there is almost no cap savings if you just buy out the final year the following summer.

    And you can’t bury the contract.

    I just wish we didn’t have to go through the nonsense of bad mouthing from Stauffer.

    If the Oilers buy out Horcoff this summer, it is just arithmetic, nothing more. Pure defensive cap management.

  93. godot10 says:

    If you buyout Horcoff a year from now with an ordinary non-compliance buyout, his cap hit is still $3.5 million, only a $2 million dollar cap savings, rather than zero cap hit ever again, if you buy him out this summer.

    BUYOUT DETAILS
    SEASON SALARY CAP HIT BUYOUT SAVINGS BUYOUT CAP HIT
    2014-15 $3,000,000 $5,500,000 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,500,000
    2015-16 $0 $0 $1,000,000 -$1,000,000 $1,000,000

  94. DBO says:

    re-alignment approved by players. So next year we have a better shot at the playoffs!!!!!! Gotta love it when a plan comes together. Oilers playoffs 2016!!!!

  95. godot10 says:

    Okay, I am wrong. The compliance buyouts can be used in the summer of 2014 also.

    I thought the buyouts were only this summer.

    Me bad.

  96. DBO says:

    godot10,

    Actually I’m almost certain there is a non cap hit buyout next year. Teams can do it over next 2 summers (originally you couldn’t do it till this coming summer, and end of it is next summer)

  97. justDOit says:

    DBO:
    re-alignment approved by players. So next year we have a better shot at the playoffs!!!!!! Gotta love it when a plan comes together. Oilers playoffs 2016!!!!

    But they also won’t have Columbus to push around during the regular season… oh – wait…

  98. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10,

    That little detail leaked out very late in the game as the new CBA was being ratified. Prior to that detail, I was certain that we HAD to buyout Horcoff this summer…like you said,it was going to be a defensive cap measure.

    When they announced that detail it changed everything in relation to Horcoff- if we can fit him under the $64M cap next year, play the man.
    If we need the room in summer of 2014, then you use the compliance buyout.

  99. DBO says:

    Oh no, have a sudden rush of enthusiasm for no reason. I see an Oilers win. 3-1. And the team finally plays team defense and scores some PP goals, using their speed to draw penalties. Nuge with 2 goals.

    I also smell burnt toast, they can’t be related can they?

  100. 42 percent body fat says:

    they’re shitty

  101. 42 percent body fat says:

    no more 8 or 6 games against the boring wild

  102. G Money says:

    *** NEW APPROACH ***

    I cannot bring myself to not care, since the Oilers are *my* team – that’s what makes me a fan.

    I have therefore decided to try meditating during games. Instead of swearing at the screen, I will strike a (yoga) pose.

    I will stop when Messrs. Eberle and Baby-Nuge find their offensive games, at which point our Keystone Kops defense will be balanced out by a shoot-the-lights-out offense, every game will be run-and-gun, and it will be the 80s all over again.

    My backup plan is to drink – one swig for every Oiler giveaway, uncovered man, and passed up opportunity to shoot. Also the 80s all over again i.e. just-turned-18-stupidass-drunk.

  103. Woodguy says:

    A guy on the Wings to watch tonight is Joakim Andersson #63

    Drafted 3rd round 88th overall in 2007.

    Stayed in Sweden until the 10/11 season when he played in the AHL.

    In 79gp that year he had 7g 15a and 22pts. If that were an Oiler prospect we’d call him a bust as he was 21 that year.

    Last year in the AHL he went 73gp 21g 30a 51pts.

    This year with DET he’s 13gp 3g 3a 6pts.

    Mostly been playing 4th line C, now playing 3C.

    His Shot differential is a gaudy 64%!!

    Very small sample, but he ripped apart 4th liners in the NHL and is moving up the depth charts.

    Rookie in the NHL at 24.

    Conversely the Oilers throw Lander into the deep end his first year in North America.

    Lander gets his head kicked in repeatedly in the NHL and all Renney and Tambellini can talk about is his “compete level”

    Poor kid was getting destroyed with the worst shot differential on the team of anyone who played 30 games (outside of Petrell, re-signing him was awful)

    To recap:

    DET leaves draft pick in Sweden for 3 years, plays him in AHL for two years, then brings him up and he succeeds right away in the NHL.

    EDM brings Lander over at 20 and throws him into NHL action right away and don’t rescue him and send him to the AHL until he’s 56 games in.

    Sure glad that v4.2 changed the development system!!

    Another reason to fire him.

  104. VanOil says:

    rickithebear,

    Thanks for the info I will examine the Ninja stuff more carefully. I have read a lot of shot quality data today. I have great respect for the time and effort people have put in to assemble it. The figure that I have found that best supports my thesis that shooting low with the express purpose (or at least higher probability) of generating rebounds is that the goal rate on rebound shots is 32.8% 3.7 time higher than the NHL avg of 8.9%. (Krywicki, http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/SQ-RS0910-Krzywicki.pdf&hl=en_US&chrome=true) That’s even better than young Ebs pulled of last year.

  105. Mr DeBakey says:

    So now that Horcoff is safe for yet another year

    For next season
    The buy-out is Schultz the Elder
    and
    the trade bait is Hemsky?

  106. dawgtoy says:

    justDOit,

    I like your analogy actually, and I’d agree fully that the bottom six is a coaches nightmare. I also realize that coach K will get Yak his reps on the PP. In the end you and I can agree we both hope for an Oiler victory. We differ slightly on the usage of the top six … so be it. Really in the end all we can say is we are proud Oiler fans that are getting so very tired of being sold hope of the playoffs, only to find ourselves at the bottom of the standings once again. As LT states above and I completely agree ” I can’t imagine the restraint it must take to watch Taylor Hall risk life and limb on one end and not send the troops an upgrade on Chris VandeVelde on the other.”

    P.S.
    LT this article was simply brilliant BTW.

  107. stevezie says:

    Today Robin Brownlee said he didn’t think that Edmonton needed to dress Eager against Detroit because the Wings aren’t that violent of a team themselves so Eager wasn’t neccesary.

    So Edmonton is too small because other teams’ tough guys run us over, but when we play a small team we should not play our tough guys because they are not neccesary.

    If all Brownlee is saying is that Eager sucks, well I’ve said that from the beginning. (Stauffer also used him as an example of a pretender as a tough guy until we traded for him, but whatever.)

    It sounded, however, like size is important for us, but not for Detroit.

  108. justDOit says:

    Woodguy,

    The Detroit model looks so easy, until you open the box and discover all the little detail pieces and the lengthy instruction sheet. It all ends badly, huddled in the corner with the glue…

  109. FrankenOil says:

    godot10,

    FWIW, Compliance buyouts are actually spread out over the next 2 summers:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=650548

    Also, if I’d be willing to wager that the Cap grows or at the very least, flattens out at the 64.3 mark for the 2014/2015 season. Just a hunch considering the Canadian TV rights deal is up.

  110. FrankenOil says:

    Oh, noticed someone beat me to the compliance info.

  111. DBO says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    They won’t buy anyone out this summer. Smyth and Horc will play here next year. That’s just how the org rolls.

    And yes I agree on Hemsky, and probably Gagner as well if he wants too much money.

  112. justDOit says:

    dawgtoy,

    Thx – yes, we’re not that far apart, in reality.

    I forgot to mention in that small company analogy, that the previous manager responsible for those poor hiring decisions was still with the company as a senior manager. Ouch.

  113. sliderule says:

    When the oilers didn’t do anything last summer to add a UFA defender or grit forward we should have known the tank was still on.I guess we just can’t stop drinking their kool ade.
    Here we are half way thru the season with only two centers that can actually play and no prospects in the system that could play with them either this year or next year.Fortunately there are several good centers in draft that will be sitting in our probably top five draft position..the problem is they will not be ready to play for two or three years.No one is going to trade us a center so our only hope is RNH and Gagner improve or we are in for a lot more angst.

    Our defence prospects are better and you can sign UFA defenders that can play in top four.Unfortunately I don’t think the oil will sign any new defenders as they will sell us on Klefbom being the answer .
    So for oiler fans its like the movie were the guy wakes up every day and he is right back to yesterday.It’s a never ending nightmare.

  114. Woodguy says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    I’ll read some of his fiction soon, which is reputed to wander off to talk about strange things for no apparent reason at all.

    I can’t imagine why you’d be attracted to his writing.

    Excellent post as usual sir.

    I may not comment on most of them, but I surely read all of them.

  115. DBO says:

    Oilers win, Oilers win. Just trying it out.

  116. slopitch says:

    I still think this team can make the playoffs if Horcoff can come back and if they can trade say Marincin and a pick for Tytuin. 80% of the teams issues come from chaos in the back. A top 2-3 dman is long overdue and of the 4 #7 dmen we have, 1-2 will look better with better teammates.

    Eager, Belanger, Fistric, Hortichuk, Brown are all bleeding chances. Tanking for top picks is easy. If you cant fillout the bottom end of the roster then find someone who can.

  117. "Steve Smith" says:

    stevezie: So Edmonton is too small because other teams’ tough guys run us over, but when we play a small team we should not play our tough guys because they are not neccesary.

    Quoted for truth. And for epitomizing the vicious illogic that pervades conventional wisdom in sports, arguably the most anti-intellectual of all domains (although I’m not suggesting that we have that argument here, because somebody would bring up religion). But mostly for truth.

    (Edit: And by “truth” I mean “truthfully pointing out the ludicrousness of the underlying assumptions”, not that the statement quoted is itself true, which, as Stevezie well knows, it is not.)

  118. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    Two years from now, the cap is scheduled to be $60 million dollars.

    No its not.

    Cap is set $64.3MM next year, 14/15 will be 50% of HRR and revenues are up significantly.

  119. DBO says:

    Just one more note on Clowe and Penner.

    Penner Shots for vs against
    26.2 17.3
    PDO 956 (meaning way unlucky and a down year)
    Relative Corsi 4.7

    Clowe shots for/against
    26.9 25.2
    PDO 988
    Relative Corsi 8.7

    One again not world beaters, but both are helping the puck move the right way and put them on the other net more then they come against us (which is kinda one of our major weaknesses), both have PDO’s under 1000 (so likely to rebound) and both are just 30, meaning unlike our vets right now they still have 2-4 years of actually good hockey before 35 yr old cliff hits. They don’t need to carry us, but they bring two way ability and size, along with enough physical play and experience that they would add something we lack while still being useful top 9 players. Real NHL players, something we have lacked for a few years.

  120. stevezie says:

    "Steve Smith",

    You get me.

  121. Lowetide says:

    I remember the day Lidstrom retired; I told my wife (who pretends to listen) that trips into Detroit would be a lot easier now.

    That said, why do I feel this sense of foreboding?

  122. Woodguy says:

    I got a weird feeling that EDM wins 4-2 with 14 getting an empty net goal.

    Weird.

    Go oilers!!

    *clap,clap*

    i

  123. VanOil says:

    I question the wisdom of a Horcoff buy out because of our horrible depth at that position mirrors his horrible contract. But joy to behold, we ain’t the only suckers on the block! Other teams have buyout candidates that might become cheaper free agents and not cost any of the Oilers limited talent. Ville Leino on the Sabers comes to mind, his contract stinks, he is just about to come back from injury but at half the price this summer he would upgrade our bottom 6 forwards. Mind you so would the ice capades. Anyway’s my point is this could be an interesting year on the free agent market due to the lowering cap (for one year at least) and buyoutapulza. Others misfortune may fortune us as our misfortune will fortune others.

  124. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    justDOit:
    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons,

    Zetterburg and Datsyk didn’t play an NHL game until at least their 22nd birthday.

    So why the opposition to PRV going down? Not suggesting you’re opposing this, but I get the sense there is a general sentiment PRV shold stay up.

  125. Rondo says:

    Detroit Red Wings remind me of the New England Patriots. Both overrated teams Detroit has not won the SC since 2008 NE 2005. They are talked about like the gold standard.

  126. DBO says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons,

    Only because most of our players suck balls so he is an upgrade even though he could be in the minors. Unfortunately same for our kids, who could all use seasoning, but are so much ahead of the rest of the old dudes that we have no choice t=but to give them huge important minutes instead of sheltering them.

  127. DBO says:

    and here we go. clap clap

  128. Lucinius says:

    Is it just me or did Principe sound pretty un-enthused about the game?

  129. DBO says:

    Paajarvi starts with hit on the forecheck? Bizarro world.

  130. Smarmy says:

    The Detroit feed basically all but said that a Wings loss is the first herald of the apocalypse.

    The Edmonton Oilers! Ladies and Gentleman.

  131. DBO says:

    Oh Hall. careless stick

  132. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo,

    You dont have to win the cup every year to be a successful team.

  133. Lucinius says:

    Hall, Hall, Hall….

  134. 42 percent body fat says:

    all this talk about grit and being tough to play against got me thinking of what would be the alltime toughest team to play against. I am not that old so Going back too far was not an option. Here is what I got.

    Tocchet Clarke Shanahan
    Roberts Messier Andersson
    Granato Nolan C. Lemiuex
    Berube Corson Mcsorley
    Probert O’Reiley

    Pronger Stevens
    U. Samuelsson D. Hatcher
    Foote Chelios
    Marchment

    Hextall
    Cheevers

    What is yours?

  135. Smarmy says:

    42 percent body fat,

    I don’t want to figure out the whole team but mine would probably include Gordon Howe, Wendel Clark and Clark Gillies.

  136. 42 percent body fat says:

    Smarmy,

    cant believe I forgot wendle Clarke and Howe,

    oh and tom gilbert

    my clarke was bobby clarke

  137. DBO says:

    42 percent body fat,

    And you forgot Neely

  138. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: A guy on the Wings to watch tonight is Joakim Andersson #63Drafted 3rd round 88th overall in 2007.Stayed in Sweden until the 10/11 season when he played in the AHL.In 79gp that year he had 7g 15a and 22pts. If that were an Oiler prospect we’d call him a bust as he was 21 that year.Last year in the AHL he went 73gp 21g 30a 51pts.This year with DET he’s 13gp 3g 3a 6pts.Mostly been playing 4th line C, now playing 3C.His Shot differential is a gaudy 64%!!Very small sample, but he ripped apart 4th liners in the NHL and is moving up the depth charts.Rookie in the NHL at 24.Conversely the Oilers throw Lander into the deep end his first year in North America.Lander gets his head kicked in repeatedly in the NHL and all Renney and Tambellini can talk about is his “compete level”Poor kid was getting destroyed with the worst shot differential on the team of anyone who played 30 games (outside of Petrell, re-signing him was awful)To recap:DET leaves draft pick in Sweden for 3 years, plays him in AHL for two years, then brings him up and he succeeds right away in the NHL.EDM brings Lander over at 20 and throws him into NHL action right away and don’t rescue him and send him to the AHL until he’s 56 games in.Sure glad that v4.2 changed the development system!!Another reason to fire him.

    Hey, aren’t you the guy that didn”t want Paajarvi returned to OKC?

  139. Smarmy says:

    42 percent body fat,

    Oh you’ll forget all kinds of guys that will make you want do-overs ;)

    I mean I obviously didn’t see him play but I bet Eddie Shore could beat the hell out of your entire blueline (except Gilbert)

  140. 42 percent body fat says:

    ok granato and anderson are out, neely and wendel are in.

    Honourable mention to Lindros, who was either the toughest guy or biggest pussie on the ice in the same game

    chara also

  141. DBO says:

    And wow Smyth is some slow. 4th liner folks.

  142. Smarmy says:

    haha the detroit guys were laughing that Hemsky was only the 13th overall and wondered what the hell the oilers did to draft so low.

    I hate this team.

  143. leadfarmer says:

    Khabibulin!!! Man, sometimes I think the pbp guys dont even pay attention to the lineups.

  144. spoiler says:

    42 percent body fat: all this talk about grit and being tough to play against got me thinking of what would be the alltime toughest team to play against. I am not that old so Going back too far was not an option. Here is what I got. Tocchet Clarke ShanahanRoberts Messier AnderssonGranato Nolan C. LemiuexBerube Corson McsorleyProbert O’ReileyPronger StevensU. Samuelsson D. HatcherFoote CheliosMarchmentHextallCheeversWhat is yours?

    I didn’t see him play–not being as old as LT–but Eddie Shore probably makes captain of any All-Grit Team.

  145. leadfarmer says:

    DBO,

    People think Horcoff will be bought out, but I think Smyth is the one to get the gas.

  146. 42 percent body fat says:

    remember when we drafted hemsky 13th overall and he is all we had to get excited about; Is that what the flames feel like with that sven kid who cant seem to score in the nhl.

  147. spoiler says:

    Ahh, Smarmy beat me to it. Good call, mate.

  148. Lucinius says:

    Its amazing how bad the Oilers have become at passing.

  149. VanOil says:

    I was about to say Yak is like a rose between two thorns on that line but i think a bloom on a turd pile is more fitting.

  150. DBO says:

    leadfarmer,

    I think they’ll both be here next year. Unless they get some solid vets, I just don’t see it. Smyth becomes Petrell, Horc becomes Belanger, Hopefully they upgrade, but I just doubt it

  151. spoiler says:

    Belanger has tunnel vision, that’s why he’s the Belanger Triangle. Never sees his linemates, always thinks shot and not pass.

  152. leadfarmer says:

    The 4th line from now on shall be referred to as the lottery line. Who do you send out if you need to spend a shift in your own zone, the lottery line of course. Team them up with Whitney while you’re at it.

  153. hags9k says:

    Does anyone have a link?

  154. 42 percent body fat says:

    leadfarmer: in your own zone, the lottery line of course. Team them up with W

    leadfarmer:
    The 4th line from now on shall be referred to as the lottery line.Who do you send out if you need to spend a shift in your own zone, the lottery line of course.Team them up with Whitney while you’re at it.

    Grocery stick line is good too, they sit in the middle of the bench to divide the dmen and forwards

  155. Rebilled says:

    I liked the non-call on 91 behind the neck. Their dman didn’t even have a stick.

  156. spoiler says:

    Hall has backpassitis this game. Needs to be a little smarter.

  157. 42 percent body fat says:

    belanger triangle

  158. DBO says:

    really Belanger. That is our buyout if we don’t move him

  159. Lucinius says:

    Belanger and Smyth looking horrid to start the period.

    Paajarvi looking real good.

  160. 42 percent body fat says:

    Vande Velde is too good for our fourth line, but he isnt good enough for the NHL. Nuff said.

  161. VanOil says:

    And for his second miracle Paajarvi turns Gagner into a good puck possession player, his first being playing with side burns.

  162. 42 percent body fat says:

    gagner is top three on team in wrist shot accuracy, but has to be the worst in slapper accuracy

  163. spoiler says:

    42 percent body fat: gagner is top three on team in wrist shot accuracy, but has to be the worst in slapper accuracy

    That was a pretty good slap shot and forced a good save from Howard.

  164. 42 percent body fat says:

    spoiler,

    didnt see it accurate until the replay, and upon further review it was a good shot. My correction.

    However I still hold he is not that accurate with slaps

  165. voxwah says:

    There’s the Pavel play of the night. He didn’t score though so we are in good shape.

  166. Lowetide says:

    that was the most enjoyable Oiler period in some time. good sticks, aggressive, forechecking, awareness, head on swivel. Good.

  167. icecastles says:

    leadfarmer: People think Horcoff will be bought out, but I think Smyth is the one to get the gas.

    My dad was in the RCMP for over 30 years. When he retired, like so many men who spent their careers dedicated to a uniform, he quickly withdrew from life and became a cynical, bitter old man. He would watch TV all day, do very little, and complain very much.

    The problem, or at leas one of the problems, was that for his entire adult life, his identity and sense of purpose had been tied intimately to his role and responsibility as a police officer. When he no longer had that, he had cultiavated little else in life to fill the gap. Family sure, but it’s a different gap.

    I was wondering if Smyth might retire at the end of this year and spare us the sad sight of Old Yeller being brought out behind the wood shed. But I get the sense that 94 is a bit like my dad: he seems like a pretty simple fellow who ties his identity and sense of purpose pretty strongly to being an Oiler. I’d hate to see him bought out – he was my favourite hockey player to wear the orange and blue, and I still proudly wear a 94 jersey every game with “OILER4EVER” on the name plate (purchased when he came back after his years in the wilderness). But maybe it’s time. That said, the team is LACKING in veterans who know how to battle. Has Smyth regressed so much so rapidly that there’s really no longer even a space for him as a fourth liner?

  168. Smarmy says:

    Lowetide,

    Yeah but it was also boring.

  169. spoiler says:

    I will take boring on the road from this team any day.

  170. DBO says:

    icecastles,

    funny thing is it’s better if the Oil buy Smtyh out. No cap hit and he still gets paid, If he retires, no money and the cap hit stays. ANd I think his pride is such that no way he walks away

  171. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    I will take boring on the road from this team any day.

    This. All day.

  172. fuzzy muppet says:

    Brown can throw em

  173. icecastles says:

    Holy hell that’s a jackhammer of a fist.

  174. "Steve Smith" says:

    So now it’s 1-0 us, right? Am I understanding fighting correctly?

  175. icecastles says:

    So since fights are supposed to be so good at “igniting the bench”, does that mean both teams are going to score now?

    Edit: Ah. Well, one of them, at least. There goes my sarcasm.

  176. voxwah says:

    Wow, that was a beat down. Lets see how the team reacts.

  177. 42 percent body fat says:

    terrible effort by yak.

  178. "Steve Smith" says:

    voxwah,

    Asked and answered.

  179. 42 percent body fat says:

    icecastles,

    nope just detroit

  180. Lucinius says:

    Ugh.

  181. fuzzy muppet says:

    Dubnyk’s gotta have that.

  182. Lowetide says:

    Love Dubnyk but he needed that one.

  183. VanOil says:

    Some back of the envelope Capology for the intermission;

    Oilers de facto 6M Hall cap on salaries leads me to the following cost projection for the Oilers to field a competitive team;

    1st line 3X6M 18M line cost
    2nd line 3X4M 12M line cost
    3d line 3X2.5M 7.5M line cost
    4th line 3X1.5M 3.5M line cost

    Total forwards 44M

    Defense;
    1st pair 2X6M 12M pair
    2nd pair 2X4M 8M pair
    3d pair 2X2M 4M pair

    Total Defense 24M

    Goalies total cost 5M

    Team total 73M

    For 14/15 the first year of the floating 50% cap I see 73M a likely cap limit. I get there as follows;

    This years reported HHR 2.4B which pro rates to 4.1B. This shows hockey revenue growth has not suffered from the lock out. Therefor I see 7% HHR growth over next years hard capped season base on historic growth rates. These growth rates should be further supported by; Canadian TV rights, Expanded winter classics, Re-alignment helping start times, The Olympics and NBC’s vested interest at highlighting hockey during them.

    4.1B X 7% = 4.387B 50% of which is 2.1935B divided by 30 teams = 73.1M cap no guarantees Oilers will spend it wisely. Brown’s fight sure sparked our team!

  184. "Steve Smith" says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    Brown must have landed the punches at the wrong angle, because they didn’t improve Dubnyk’s goaltending like they were supposed to.

  185. 42 percent body fat says:

    detroits got legs now, were done,

    and why cant we draw penalties, skate guys, stop piddling around

  186. Ben says:

    In so many ways, this team IS an Angel Food Cake.

  187. 42 percent body fat says:

    VanOil,

    your fourth line math looks off

  188. "Steve Smith" says:

    42 percent body fat,

    His overall forward math works, though, assuming that forwards 13 and 14 are making $1 million each.

  189. VanOil says:

    42 percent body fat:
    VanOil,

    your fourth line math looks off

    Your right, Brown’s fight must have also effect my math skills!

  190. Mark-LW says:

    If Hemsky is finished I’m cancelling my gamecentre subscription

  191. Rebilled says:

    Oilers really don’t wanna fight to get the puck tonight.

    When they do, there’s usually a backhand pass that gets broken up/stolen.

    but Petry rulz

  192. 42 percent body fat says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Im getting 41M for the forwards. The other mistake I see is only three forwards making 6M. There should be 4.

    Its a nice structure though. Would be nice for it to work.

  193. voxwah says:

    Who is this Petry guy? Did we get him for Whitney in a trade?

  194. Lowetide says:

    voxwah:
    Who is this Petry guy? Did we get him for Whitney in a trade?

    He’s coming on, not playing anywhere during the lockout really made him less effective early imo.

  195. FPB94 says:

    Riley Nash has 4 points in 9 games and Colin Mcdonald 8 in 21.

    The scrubs have become NHL players. Gotta check out Cody Wild.

  196. 42 percent body fat says:

    gagner – dangling too much, shoot
    Hall – see above
    eberle – lazy
    nuge – soft and uninspired
    hemsky – good game, bad game, some consistency please
    Paajarvi – keep it up but learn to shoot

    Bottom 6 – no comment.

  197. "Steve Smith" says:

    42 percent body fat:
    “Steve Smith”,

    Im getting 41M for the forwards.

    18 + 12 + 7.5 + 4.5 = 42, plus the 2 for forwards 13 and 14 makes 44. Not sure where you get 41.

    On the other hand, we’re apparently only paying six defencemen, which is a little peculiar.

    The other mistake I see is only three forwards making 6M.There should be 4.

    I assume you mean the three firsts overall and Eberle. Yakupov’s still on his ELC in 2014-2015, though, and at this point it’s premature to assume that he’s going to be in that $6 million territory. As well, unless RNH puts him better counting numbers, I don’t see him in that range either (on the basis that counting numbers affect salary disproportionately to their ability to show a player’s true value).

  198. 42 percent body fat says:

    dooooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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