OILERS TRADING FOR JACK JOHNSON? (BY WOODGUY)

I have a really bad feeling that the Oilers may have a deal in place for Jack Johnson and to make room for him are going to trade Ladislav Smid at the deadline, and I’ll tell you why.

TEA LEAF #1 – BOB STAUFFER

Bob Stauffer is an employee of the Edmonton Oilers.  He is the radio color analyst, and host of a daily hockey show called Oilers Now on the radio rights holder for Oiler broadcasts.

Bob generally has a better track record than most when predicting Oiler roster moves.  He’s by no means batting in the .700 range, or even .500 range, but he hits a solid single more often than most.

A CALLER WHO GUESSED RIGHT?

On March 8th he answered a caller who suggested that DET likes Swedish players so Omark, Paajarvi or Lander would be a fit there for a bottom of the roster type coming back.  Bob’s response was “Wow.  You haven’t been intercepting any emails of late have you?”

Sounds like Bob knows something, and the most likely scenario is Omark and Whitney for a bottom of the roster type from DET.  I really hope Paajarvi isn’t involved.

OILERS AND COLUMBUS “A FIT”

The caller then talks about Columbus having too many D and not enough skill and there might be a fit there.  That sets Bob off to speculating about Columbus needing to move one of their expensive Dmen for talent up front.

At the end of his musings Bob’s conclusion is that he could see Edmonton and Columbus being a good fit trade wise, and that the Dman who would be available would be Jack Johnson.

Here’s the link to the podcast:

http://www.630ched.com/Podcasts/Episodes.aspx?PID=2254

March 8th – 3rd half hour, call starts at 14:27 left (time counts down)

I really, really, really hope Bob is wrong on this one.

It may be that the Oilers know they really need to upgrade on the first pairing and in their eyes Jack Johnson is best guy available.

Jack Johnson is not the best Dman available.  He’s not a good Dman, so its impossible to be the best Dman available, but more on that later.

 

TEA LEAF #2 LADISLAV SMID

Ladislav Smid is a UFA this summer has not not signed an extension.

As of March 3 the Oilers have had contract discussions with the Oilers.

If you have followed the Oilers for any length of time, this most often means the player is on their way out of town.

The same happened to Hemsky last year and he was signed at the last minute, so its not like they always follow the same script.  They just mostly follow the same script.

Defenceman Ladislav Smid, an unrestricted free-agent July 1, says his agent Steve Kotlowitz hasn’t had contract discussions with the Oilers. Lots of NHL teams have been scouting the Oilers, knowing Smid is UFA this summer, also wondering if he might be in play for a trade April 3 because of that, if there’s no movement on a new contract. “There’s nothing going on,” he said. “I’m trying not to think about.  Hopefully, we’ll start talking soon. We have a month to the trade deadline.” Is he worried about a trade? “I guess that would be an option, if I don’t sign a deal by then.”

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/03/03/no-taylor-hall-for-edmonton-oilers-in-minnesota/#

With Bob Stauffer saying the Oilers have fit with Columbus, I think the Oilers may have decided to trade Smid and take on Johnson.  This would be a mistake.

I think the Oilers recognize that they do not have enough good 1st pass Dmen on the roster to get the puck to the gifted kids and they want to upgrade.  That is a good thing.

I’ve posted before that they might be looking at bringing Grebeshkov back, and that is a good thing.

Now the tea leaves looks like they are moving out Smid to make room for Johnson. That is not a good thing.

 

OILER’S HISTORY OF MAKING ROOM FOR A PLAYER

For some reason the Oilers never have actual competition for roster spots.  I understand that in a cap world the realities of the contracts dictate that you kinda know who is going to slot where, but the Oilers do it by giving roster spots to unproven players, not to the better player.

1)      Not re-signing Marchant in the spring of 2003 as Horcoff emerged to take his spot. Marchant was going to command more money than the Oilers wanted to spend. Marchant averaged over 19 minutes a night, Horcoff averaged under 13 minutes a night in 02/03

2)      In the same summer as Marchant, the Oilers cleared out Cleary to make room for Pisani.  The Oilers said Cleary needed “another opinion” and let him walk as Pisani emerged.

3)      Moving Brodziak to Pouliot could take his spot.  The Oilers admitted later that is exactly why they moved Brodziak.  They wanted their 1st rounder from 2003 to solidfy a roster spot so they paved one for him.  He still missed.

4)      Moving Gilbert to make room for Justin Shultz.  There was tons of smoke that Shultz might be coming.  Moving Gilbert makes no sense unless he was coming. Right handed multi-tool Dmen aren’t plentiful.

Link to Matheson’s story on the Oiles trading Gilbert to make room for Shultz:

http://www2.canada.com/topics/sports/story.html?id=7993480

Matheson’s may have just made a mistake, but I think there’s more there.

 

WHY JACK JOHNSON IS NOT A TOP 4 NHL DMAN

I was going to write to explain why Jack Johnson is not a good NHL defenseman, but I ran across 3 articles that do a very good job explaining it, so I’ll link them and then add my own bit.

BATTLE OF CALIFORNIA

On August 2nd, 2011 Kings blogger Rudy Kelly from Battle of California (covers Kings, Sharks and Ducks) wrote this piece while Johnson was still a King:

http://www.battleofcali.com/2011/8/2/2310065/the-jmfj-effect

The crux of the article is:

Overall, the Kings were +112 GF and -93 GA without JMFJ (+19, .546), and +55 GF and -72 GA with him (-17, .433).

The Kings are better without Jack Johnson. Or at least, every single defenseman on the team (except Drewiske) plays better without Jack Johnson. This despite the fact that Jack didn’t play the toughest minutes on the team (those go to Mitchell and Doughty). The evidence is circumstantial but poor people have been put to death with less. To put it in another way, Jack had both the highest GA/60 among Kings defensemen and the lowest GF/60. He scored less points at a per minutes basis than any other defenseman on the team, including Matt Greene and Rob Scuderi. There’s a lot of different ways you can show it, but Jack Johnson is just… bad. Bad bad bad.

Lordy.

Next we have 2 articles that came out the day after Johnson was traded to Columbus.

FEAR THE FIN

Writer “The Neutral” from Sharks blog Fear the Fin wrote this piece on Feb 24th 2012

http://www.fearthefin.com/2012/2/24/2822018/dumping-johnson-just-as-important-as-adding-carter-for-kings

The crux of that piece was Johnson’s offensive production and shot attempt differential vs all the other defensemen in the NHL was very poor.

Johnson was amongst the dregs of the NHLin every aspect, and put up those numbers while seeing 2nd pairing competition.

Season

Corsi Rel

5v5 GA/60

5v5 P/60

2007-08

201st among 202

195th among 202

136th among 202

2008-09

183rd among 200

195th among 200

185th among 200

2009-10

143rd among 202

198th among 202

57th among 202

2010-11

167th among 198

151st among 198

161st among 198

2011-12

141st among 155

57th among 155

112th among 155

That’s an amazing list of futility for a Dman who is supposed to be a top 4 NHL talent.

Those are bottom pairing/AHL quality numbers.

COPPER & BLUE & FROZEN ROYALTY

The 3rd piece was the aptly titled “Jack Johnson Is Not Good” by Derek Zona at Copper & Blue

http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/2/24/1892938/jack-johnson-is-not-good

Derek had fun at Johnson’s expense by quoting Dean Lombardi talking about Johnson’s development curve in college:

“Jack was a thoroughbred out there. But he was all over the place. He was awful as a hockey player. As an athlete, you’re going, wow! Look at the way he skates, shoots, he can pass. But he had no idea where he was going. At times, he was playing forward at Michigan. You had no idea what position he was playing. But he had always been the star and he always got his numbers. Then he turns pro and for the first time, we’re telling him ‘whoa, just make the first pass and learn to play in your own end.’ How about making a read in your own end about the right guy to pick up? He was awful.”

That quote was from a piece done by Gann Matsuda on January 10, 2010, at Kings blog Frozen Royalty.  Matsuda has been writing about the Kings since 1986.

Matsuda’s piece was entitled: Dean Lombardi: Jack Johnson Is Learning His Craft…Belatedly

http://frozenroyalty.net/2010/01/20/dean-lombardi-jack-johnson-is-learning-his-craft-belatedly/

Here’s a key paragraph:

Now in his third full season in the National Hockey League, Johnson has shown the offensive skill and athletic ability that made him a first round pick (third overall) in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft by the Carolina Hurricanes. But his decisions in the defensive zone often leave people shaking their heads after he makes a bad read or blows a coverage.

The piece continues on about Johnson getting selected to play for team USA and how he’s getting better.

The problem is that his results haven’t been getting better. I learned a long time ago that perception is reality and the perception of Johnson is much, much better than his results.

THE BIT I WANTED TO ADD: JOHNSON WOWY

One area I like to look at is with and without you shot attempt differential.  These show a very general effect the player has on their team mates in terms of shot attempt differential.

Here’s a charts showing how many of Johnson’s top 15 team mates (using TOI together) in the last 3 years fared playing with and without him in terms of shot attempt differential.

YEAR # OF PLAYERS BETTER WITH JJ
2009/2010 3 OF 15
2010/2011 2 OF 15
2011/2012 LA KINGS 0 OF 15
2011/2012 COLUMBUS 3 OF 15

In all 3 years none of the players who fared better with him were defencemen.

None.

This isn’t not a “be all end all” stat, and when a player is surrounded by much better players sometimes you can expect results like this, but usually its at the end of the roster.

OILERS NEED PUCK MOVING DMEN

The Oilers have trouble maintaining puck possession.  I think a significant part of improving this is having more Dmen who can make a good first past.  Right now its only Petry and J.Shultz (assuming Whitney is gone)

I’m reminded of the 08/09 season when the Oilers had 4 good puck moving D, but only Horcoff and Hemsky could take a pass.  That year Gilbert, Souray, and Grebeshkov were in the top 8 scoring on the Oilers.  Visnovsky was 11th in scoring despite only playing 50 games.

The top 5 Oiler scoring forward were Hemsky, Horcoff and Patrick O’Sullivan (who got most of his points as a King), Ales Kotalik (most of his points came with BUF), and a 19 year old Sam Gagner.

So back then they had good 1st pass Dmen, but hardly anyone to pass it to.

Now they have a bunch of players who can take a pass and create offence if they have possession through the neutral zone, but no one to pass it to them.  Off the glass and out is a constant refrain this year.

Balance has seemed to elude Oiler management since the spring of 2006.

I’m not opposed to moving Smid if the plan is to replace him with a non-rookie, Actual NHL quality Dman who can move the puck and helps with possession.

SUMMARY

There’s smoke that Oilers and Jackets are a fit from the rights holder station that has a solid background of being right.

The Oilers do not seem interested in signing Smid.

The Oilers are still a team that is in the early stages of looking at shot data stats for another opinion on a player, so they are one of the few teams that would actually trade for Jack Johnson regardless of what the MSM says.

I fear the Oilers are going to trade Jack Johnson and have to send back something like Paajarvi and a 2nd in a very deep draft where their 2nd will be in the 40′s overall.

If they get him, I’m sure they will trumpet his international experience playing for Team USA.

I’m sure they will trumpet the fact that he was a 3rd overall pick in his draft year.

I’m sure they will talk about his size, shot, physicality, grit, determination and compete level.

I’m also sure they will have traded for boat anchor.

They will have traded for a player who looks like a good player, but who’s results show that he isn’t.

The cornerstone of the Defensive Corps may be a guy who doesn’t make his team mates better and they will have paid a lot to get him.

I really hope that I’m reading the tea leave wrong.

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116 Responses to "OILERS TRADING FOR JACK JOHNSON? (BY WOODGUY)"

  1. gangplank says:

    I think its Fedor tyutin. Howson should be able to tell our management group that he got fired for thinking JJ is a good player and they should save their asses and pass on JJ

  2. MrSmitty says:

    Damn you Woodguy you are scaring the crap out of me with this article. Pray the jokers at the top have more sense then we give them credit for.

  3. admiralmark says:

    If true. What does this say about Howson? What does this once again say about the pro scouting dept?!

  4. MrSmitty says:

    Looks like its scaring more than myself a bunch of people on twitter are going crazy over this article.

  5. Gerta Rauss says:

    Yeah, it’s Tutin that we want if we’re dealing with Columbus. God help us all if we deal for Jack Johnson.

  6. Woodguy says:

    To be clear.

    I don’t think they trade Ladi for JJ.

    I think Ladi goes at the deadline.

    I think JJ comes in the summer.

    Just speculation on my part by reading tea leaves.

    I have no inside info.

    Hope I’m wrong.

    Hope the Oilers upgrade with more good first pass Dmen.

  7. Lowetide says:

    From what I’m seeing on twitter, many are missing the lead. Smid’s being traded is pretty much done–they haven’t signed him to a contract, and based on what Matheson said today on Spector’s show the agent isn’t in negotiations as of a week ago or so.

    the LEAD is Johnson. There’s a big part of this team in terms of salary cap spent on a flawed player.

    Also, David Staples has tweeted that the article by Woodguy is Smid for Johnson. That isn’t the story at all.

  8. misfit says:

    I actually fear much worse. Not only do I think we could trade for Johnson, but I think we’d be willing to give up far more than Paajarvi and a 2nd to make it happen. I believe Hemsky, not Paajarvi would be going the other way, and possibly more than a 2nd as well.

    My only hope is that Howson had enough time to watch him as a Bluejacket to know he wasn’t anywhwere near as good as his reputation. My fear, however, is that he still believes Johnson is a difference maker, and is now working for the Oilers in a capacity where he is advising Tambellini on potential trade targets.

  9. Rebilled says:

    Don’t trade our shot blocker/crease clearer please. Remember when he saved that goal last game? That’s what we need. Shouldn’t we trade the shitty players away and try to get more wins than…oh no…

  10. DawnM says:

    I sincerely hope Smid does not get traded. While I’m aware that hits and blocked shots are indications of the other team’s possession, and I’ve seen his zone clearing stats, Smid is a warrior. That is something this team is lacking. Watching championship teams, they all seem to be high in warrior quotient. Not to be confused with the ever famous “grit”, a warrior brings more. I see some of it in Horcoff and Hall too. There’s some weakness on our blue line for sure. But until the chaff is gone, hope they don’t start throwing away the wheat.

  11. Melman says:

    This will be the litmus test of MacTavish’s role as the Minister of Common Sense. 5 more years of a flawed player at $4.3 that no teammates seem to cry over when he leaves, is abject foolishness. If he was the impact difference maker he was supposed to be Howson would still be a GM.

    Tambo couldn’t be that silly could he?

  12. Halfwise says:

    First things first. Detroit as a trade partner…Filppula is out with a shoulder injury, so that makes him an Oiler already, almost.

    Howson should actually have a decent idea about Detroit players, he would have seen enough of them eating CBJ’s lunch over the past few seasons.

    Johnson needs to be wherever Charlie Huddy is. Not much evidence that Oilers can develop D half as well as they used to.

    One of the things that makes Woodguy’s post so terrifying is the plausibility of Oilers making a trade without doing their homework, like the look on ST’s face when he was asked why Teubert had been an AHL healthy scratch on LA’s farm lately.

    Smid’s warrior spirit and Mike Brown’s warrior spirit are needed on this team, whatever shortcomings each man has in other aspects of NHL calibre hockey.

  13. bookje says:

    Why is Grebeshkov good other than we thought he was ok when he was here? His KHL record is marginal.

    Contrary to the storyline, I still think that the Oilers have more often left the signing of free agents until the last minute. I know Twitter is telling you and LT otherwise, but I suspect Twitter has been wrong once or twice before. Often, I think the team is exploring options regarding trading a player and even sending out feelers to other teams “What would you give us for Smid?” while also considering re-signing them. The Fax guy in Dallas tells his buddy that the Oilers are shopping Smid and soon it becomes “The Oilers are trading Smid”. Trading is different than shopping. For the last two years, the internet has been mostly wrong when it comes to Oiler moves. I simply don’t think it is reliable.

    Furthermore, I find the “We have been trying to talk to the team, but we are getting no response” comment a very very common tactic of agents, not just in Edmonton, but elsewhere. I think they try to create drama/pressure/panic to try to push management.

    With that said, I think its stupid that the Oilers often wait to sign players until very late in the process, but perhaps they think they make better deals that way.

    I am not saying Smid signs here, but just suggesting that I think declarations that this is a ‘done deal’ are jumping the gun a bit and there is not a history of these types of predictions being correct.

    As per Jack Johnson, he is a terrible defenseman and exactly the type of player the Oilers have a history of liking (Gilbert Brule anyone?)

    I think its great that you took the time to map out the factors behind your Jack Johnson theory and I enjoyed the article. The best that any of us can do is make our best guesses based upon available information as to what management is up to. With that said, its entirely possible that the Oilers are pretty set on Johnson today (and someone mentioned that to Stauffer), but may change their mind. Maybe MacT goes to watch a few games and comes back and says “The guy is a disaster that can’t be fixed” and there ends the trade.

  14. delooper says:

    My impression is there’s lots of bad information coming out of blogs and the MSM, mostly because people don’t have time (or proper access) to check their facts, and so erroneous information gets amplified. That kind of information only gets shot down when the reverberations become too loud to ignore. I hope Woodguy’s article prompts a “sane” response from the Oilers: they sign Smid. If JJ comes in the summer more or less for free, the Oilers D-core isn’t so flashy they would have no use for him.

  15. delooper says:

    bookje,

    People wait until the last minute because if you do things early, and if people don’t have a “get things done” attitude, then more often than not you just create drama and conflict, people’s inflated egos get bruised and such. So if there’s not much to discuss, **DON’T BOTHER**. Wait until the last minute, because that’s all the time you need. IMO it makes perfect sense. This is a good strategy to marginalize agents that don’t have much good to do.

  16. Marc says:

    Lowetide:
    Smid’s being traded is pretty much done–they haven’t signed him to a contract, and based on what Matheson said today on Spector’s show the agent isn’t in negotiations as of a week ago or so.

    I don’t think this conclusion follows at all. There’s more evidence that it’s a negotiating tactic aimed at leveraging Smid’s stated desire to stay in Edmonton into a value contract. After all, that’s exactly what Tambo did to Smyth last season. And openly shopping Hemsky at the trade deadline last year resulted in him signing a short term deal that represented a smaller percentage of the team’s cap than his previous deal was when it was signed.

    When you add in the Smyth acquisition, that’s 3 seperate occasions where Tambo used patience and perceived lack of interest to secure a good deal for the Oilers.

    What are the counter examples that cause you to conclude that Smid is done as a Oiler because it the middle of the season and he hasn’t been resigned?

  17. bookje says:

    Also, I can’t fathom anyone who watches the game not understanding what Smid brings to the game. There is nothing complex about it like Penner’s case was. It would be absolutely senseless for the Oilers to not even talk to his agent about contract. Even if they were trading him, they would be better to sign him for 2-3 years and then trade him.

  18. delooper says:

    Who is Smid’s agent? If Tambellini doesn’t like the guy I could imagine why he’s waiting until the last minute.

  19. Southern Oil says:

    “For some reason the Oilers never have actual competition for roster spots. I understand that in a cap world the realities of the contracts dictate that you kinda know who is going to slot where, but the Oilers do it by giving roster spots to unproven players, not to the better player.”

    I love the quote above. I was thinking when Johnson’s name starting coming up earlier this week, why that means we have to get rid of Smid and I still can’t come up with an answer. If you can trade Smid for a better player (with some add ons) in another area – great. But based on the history (as you point out) they will ship Smid off for a 2nd and some Teubert level prospect. It makes no sense. Why not keep Smid and put Potter / Pekham on waivers. I would love to hear management’s thought on this if it comes to pass.

    The one thing I did not realize is how bad Johnson really is. I am not good at advanced stats like some on this blog but the one thing I can see, is over time how trades turn out. As many have pointed out – the Lubomir deal, the Gilbert deal, the Brodziak deal + many more – none of that makes sense. I can’t see why our management team of f’ups can’t look back and internally agree that these things were not properly thought out / carried out and then make adjustments on how they make future decisions. I don’t think you need to be a stats wiz to figure that out.

    I hope PRV recently might have played himself off the trade market, but I don’t see an end to some really stupid decisions unless our management structure really changes.

  20. gogliano says:

    Marc: I don’t think this conclusion follows at all. There’s more evidence that it’s a negotiating tactic aimed at leveraging Smid’s stated desire to stay in Edmonton into a value contract.After all, that’s exactly what Tambo did to Smyth last season. And openly shopping Hemsky at the trade deadline last year resulted in him signing a short term deal that represented a smaller percentage of the team’s cap than his previous deal was when it was signed.

    When you add in the Smyth acquisition, that’s 3 seperate occasions where Tambo used patience and perceived lack of interest to secure a good deal for the Oilers.

    What are the counter examples that cause you to conclude that Smid is done as a Oiler because it the middle of the season and he hasn’t been resigned?

    I also think this is the most plausible scenario. The Smyth and Hemsky examples both follow this pattern.

    But it is all speculation at this point. There are too many reasons for the behavior of both parties to know much of anything about what is really going on.

  21. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Smid’s being traded is pretty much done–they haven’t signed him to a contract

    So says the man who has “traded” Smid about 30 times in the past 6 years. :)

    Whereas in real life the Oilers only traded him the once …

  22. Thiru says:

    Jack Johnson is terrible.

    The one thing I wonder about is the disconnect between the front office and the pro scouts.

    We know that Tambo looks at scoring chance data (he mentioned that Eberle led the team in creating scoring chances during training camp as a 19 year old). I think this probably explains why Paajarvi wasn’t sent down a second time.

    When a Johnson type comes up, it can’t be from Tambo, can it? It must be from the pro scouts, OR someone else in The Room of Talking Heads, who probably doesn’t take that sort of data that seriously.

    It is a bit curious though; how our GM appears to value advanced stats for his own players, but seemingly not for all others.

  23. Minister D- says:

    Agree with most of what Marc says above;

    First: I admit I’m not really sure what the Detroit rumours have to do with the rest of the article. If the point was to suggest that the caller has some sort of insider knowledge, I don’t know… what he said wasn’t exactly rocket science.

    Second: It may be just wishful thinking on my part, but I don’t necessarily agree that Smid’s not being signed by now means he’s all but gone. I know historically this doesn’t bode well. But isn’t it also likely that Tambo’s waiting until the last minute because he wants to see what kinds of offers might be on the table closer to the deadline? I’d rather have Smid, but it doesn’t seem altogether imprudent to me that the Oilers would dangle him to see if there might be some kind of move they could potentially make, or, failing that, sign him to a value contract.

    Now, I agree that Johnson is definitely NOT the move that should be made, this summer or ever, but I’m inclined to think that this whole situation is managerial gamesmanship.

  24. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: So says the man who has “traded” Smid about 30 times in the past 6 years.

    Whereas in real life the Oilers only traded him the once …

    Lowetide hates Smid! (jk)

  25. Mr DeBakey says:

    Also, David Staples has tweeted that the article by Woodguy is Smid for Johnson. That isn’t the story at all.

    I think that’s impossible, Mr Staples doesn’t get this sort of thing wrong.

    I listened to the Stuffer thing just after it aired, I didn’t hear anything more than someone filling air-time.
    Though, I can see the Oilers liking the cut of Johnson’s jib.

  26. delooper says:

    Tambellini was pretty careful to say he wasn’t interested in trading any of the youth for short-term gain. Although Smid isn’t commonly lumped-in with “the kids” he probably deserves it. He’s had a trial by fire, with extreme expectations heaped upon him from a young age, just like Gagner. He’s only 27 years old, which in “d-man years” is basically a 22-23 year old forward.

  27. jb says:

    My tea leaves tell me there’s nothing to this, nothing at all. Isn’t it entirely possible management knows Smid wants to be here and realizes there’s no rush to sigh him? that’s your most likely scenario.

    Is anyone really upset we dealt a 3rd/4th for Fistric/Brown? Quality moves imo. If your talking potential trades I think we’re looking at something like Gagner +1st/2nd for a solid/expensive veteran D.

  28. Lewis Grant says:

    If we lose Smid and Hemsky/Paajarvi+ and get Johnson, I am done as an Oilers fan.

    Smid was quite possibly the best player on the team last year. According to the Cult of Hockey game-by-game player-grade system, I believe Smid came out at or near the top. If there is one thing this team needs, it’s more defensive-minded defensemen. Smid was likely one of the top ten in the league last year at that craft. He likes Edmonton. It’s hard to name a price at which he’d be too expensive to sign.

    Simply having Jack Johnson on your team makes your team worse. Kings fans talk about “addition by subtraction”. They got rid of him and won a Cup.

    If we lose Hemsky over this, or even Paajarvi, it will be unconscionable.

    As someone else said the other day, we need two more players like Smid, not one less. (And after we suffered through his 3-4 years of growing pains, no less.)

    This is the stupidest move I can imagine the Oilers making – and as we all know, that’s quite a standard.

  29. bookje says:

    Bruce McCurdy: So says the man who has “traded” Smid about 30 times in the past 6 years.

    Whereas in real life the Oilers only traded him the once …

    Bruce Wins!!!

  30. delooper says:

    Lewis Grant,

    That’s ridiculous. No way such a trade happens.

  31. dulock says:

    Posts like this always make me wonder what Sandis Ozolinsh’s Corsi was. So much offence, so little defence.

  32. Bruce McCurdy says:

    delooper: Who is Smid’s agent? If Tambellini doesn’t like the guy I could imagine why he’s waiting until the last minute.

    Unless things have changed in the past 12 months, Smid’s agent is Gerry Johannson. He was a panellist at a local analytics conference last year (“How Player Agents Use Analytics to Find Talent.” Gerry Johannson, TSC Agents – SPORTS Corporation) Seemed like a reasonable fellow. :)

  33. bookje says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Unless things have changed in the past 12 months, Smid’s agent is Gerry Johannson. He was a panellist at a local analytics conference last year (“How Player Agents Use Analytics to Find Talent.” Gerry Johannson, TSC Agents – SPORTS Corporation) Seemed like a reasonable fellow.

    Reasonable Guy; Sports Analytics + The Oilers. I think we have identified our problem!

  34. delooper says:

    Oh god! A numbers guy! Run!!

  35. B S says:

    OT, but watching Sens vs Habs game, Emelin nails Griba about 1 second late in open ice. Interference called. I have missed about half the Oilers’ games this season, but I’ve yet to see that call on any late hits on an Oilers player and can’t offhand recall it getting called against Edmonton, getting really frustrated by the officiating as it seems incredibly inconsistent and largely dependent on who is playing who.

  36. raylap says:

    oh yeah…..dont worry…they will trade him for basically a ridiculous price…THESE are the oilers with an old boys club running the operation. What really surprises me is, how did Katz become so successful as a businessman. I really think he received alot of help and funds….and probably ripped alot of people on the way, because from what i see….he is the most incompetent owner/businessman i have ever seen!!!!!…How else can you come to any other conclusion when you have K.Lowe, tambi, howson?????, and mac t…..mac t might be the best of the lot….at least he is intelligent. Oh well…..crowds will start depleting….hell…i have already notice executive suites available!!!! Who would have thought! Time to clean upper management, bring in some new faces!!!!And an owner with balls!!!!

  37. RMGS says:

    It’s entirely reasonable to think that the team is waiting to see what Smid may garner as April 3 nears but is prepared to sign him should nothing that improves the team present itself – especially knowing he wants to stay. But, this is Oilers management, and it’s a group that just might do what WG suggests thinking of course that Jack Johnson, who is not good, IS that improvement.

  38. VanOil says:

    Johnson is a very poor and very overrated hockey player.

    Oilers off the glass and out problem is not aided by players like Petrell, Belanger ect. It can not all be laid at Smids feet/hands

    I would love for the Oilers to sign/trade for a high profile #1 defenseman but they are very rare and very expensive. So I am not holding my breath.

    Until such time as we can grow our own, how about a trade for a player like the Wings Ian White. His main liability is his lack of size but paired with Fistric this would hardly be a concern. The cost as speculated in the Wings blog below is Omark. He is a UFA at the end of the year if he does not workout then no big deal. If he does, then great we have time to develop some of our D prospects wings style.

    http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2013/3/12/4092212/trade-rumors-ian-white-valtteri-filppula-jimmy-howard-contract-demands

  39. stevezie says:

    I think the article is well-written and I look forward to more, but I have to admit that I’m not convinced Bob Stauffer making one remark after being led there by a caller is not much to go on.

    Unless the caller was a plant?

    Smid? Maybe. The conclusion would make sense for most teams but this sort of thing does seem to be MacTambeLowni’s MO.

    As for me and my house, there’ll be plenty of time to stress once it’s time to stress. I’ll wait until then.

  40. mps91 says:

    What if the offer was Hemsky for JJ? I take that 100% of the time.

    Deal Whitney for picks at the deadline, and re-sign Smid.

  41. bluenotenorth says:

    I think there are several good reasons why Johnson does not become an Oiler.
    1. $4.3M through 2017-18. That contract length appears to be for the youth. Plus memory of Horcoff’s (apparent) overpay in the last few years is still fresh. Even with growth in the cap over time, $4.3M is still significant in the latter years.
    2. The sports analytics group that supposedly meets monthly with the Oilers should be able to point out Johnson’s shortcomings. Shame on them if they do not.
    3. Howson will have some input. I doubt if he has a high opinion of Johnson.

    One way that Johnson could become an Oiler is if CBJ retains a portion of his salary such that they are only paying at a 5/6/7D range. I could see them taking that gamble. Not sure I would.

  42. B S says:

    The Oilers won’t trade Smid because…
    1) he’s exactly the sort of Dman this team needs, and he’s damn good at it.
    2) From what I can tell Stuffer will say absolutely anything to fill space, only occasionally qualifying it as rampant speculation (he also then gets very defensive when people call him out on it). I believe he says what the Oilers want him to say on occasion, but it is hard to tell from his usual BS.
    3) along with the absolutely retarded realignment for the conferences for next season, trading Smid for anything less than an absolute steal (#1 Dman, big 1st line forward sort of fleecing), would turn me off of NHL hockey. Smid has been exceptionally vocal about how much he likes Edmonton, he’s positive, talkative, and he’s the only regular player on this team who will do what it takes to stick up for his teammates. When people talk about intangibles, Smid exemplifies them.

  43. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    delooper,

    Marc,

    gogliano,

    You all put it very well. Negotiations start with an agent saying what they want. If they don’t want to go the wire they start in the ballpark. Otherwise they start far away. The team then has the choice between insulting the player with an offer or letting the agent appeal to ticket holders with the no offer shtick. The latter is usually the team’
    s safest bridge to the late negotiations that the agent wanted in the first place.

  44. stevezie says:

    B S,

    I would argue rampant speculation is his job. He’s a sports show host, not an insider/reporter.

    mps91: What if the offer was Hemsky for JJ? I take that 100% of the time.

    Why? I wouldn’t take Johnson’s contract if you gave it to me. As a gift.

  45. tcho says:

    God help me – I’m rooting for the Flames tonight.

  46. raventalon40 says:

    Memories of Pitkanen.

  47. dawgtoy says:

    I’d like to think the Oilers are smart enough to sign Smid, and to stay far far away from Johnson. The proverbial bird in hand. The devil you know…ya know.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Rajala another point (goal) tonight. What in hell are they going ton do with him?

  49. B S says:

    stevezie,

    Sure, but Stauffer’s tone is incredibly confident, and his verbal is typically very certain when he’s discussing managerial decisions. It makes it incredibly difficult to tell if he knows something, or if he’s talking out of the wrong orifice. “It looks like…” vs “I’m not sure, but it’s possible that…”

  50. slopitch says:

    This is a good hypothesis and the analysis of JJs game is spot on. I do think the oilers are blowing smoke through their outlets and the speculation is speculation. Smid should be resigned. Move Klefbomb to add a missing D. It took Smid long enough

  51. Ice Sage says:

    If Jack Johnson brings his guitar and lady-melting surfer vibe, I could get down with that. Oilers and their fans are too uptight anyhow, dudes

  52. OilClog says:

    How does Staples have a job? Who in the world likes this guy?!?!

    Any way we could start building a fund to donate to a charity of Mike Brown’s choice if he can kindly take care of Johnson the next time we play Columbus, that would be a beautiful.

  53. stevezie says:

    OilClog,

    I don’t mind him- he looks really closely at games and I think has some interesting things to add to the discussion.
    Ice Sage,

    Stevezie likes this comment, even though I’m pretty tired of guitar playing surfers. Can’t we all just do drugs?

  54. bluenotenorth says:

    Lowetide:
    Rajala another point (goal) tonight. What in hell are they going ton do with him?

    Hopefully keep him in OKC and start developing talent at the AHL level. Still a RFA in 2014-15 so no rush.

  55. Lowetide says:

    OilClog:
    How does Staples have a job? Who in the world likes this guy?!?!

    Any way we could start building a fund to donate to a charity of Mike Brown’s choice if he can kindly take care of Johnson the next time we play Columbus, that would be a beautiful.

    David is a good and decent person based on my interactions with him, and he approaches things from a unique angle. One of the things I’ve noticed about the internet is people (in general) adopt a viewpoint and then hammer away at those who disagree.

    I’m all for hammering away, but take the time to figure out what the person is saying. I don’t agree with David on many things, but he’s always been forthright with me on any questions I’ve had and defends his position–often against some pretty vicious and vocal opposition.

    I would also add that Staples was the first msm to bring the Oilogosphere into the light of day.

  56. delooper says:

    And here I thought Staples was an office-supply chain.

  57. bookje says:

    Lowetide: David is a good and decent person based on my interactions with him, and he approaches things from a unique angle. One of the things I’ve noticed about the internet is people (in general) adopt a viewpoint and then hammer away at those who disagree.

    I’m all for hammering away, but take the time to figure out what the person is saying. I don’t agree with David on many things, but he’s always been forthright with me on any questions I’ve had and defends his position–often against some pretty vicious and vocal opposition.

    I would also add that Staples was the first msm to bring the Oilogosphere into the light of day.

    Fully agree., and on the urban planning side of things he does a good and fair job as well.

  58. BlacqueJacque says:

    Anyone else watching the Detroit-Calgary game?

    Datsyuk is so much fun to watch when he’s not busy carving the Oilers into pieces.

  59. hags9k says:

    Great job again Woodguy! However as much as I love the Because Oilers phrase, I think Smid will be signed. I will be shocked and appalled if they deal him. My gut says he takes a bit of a home town discount and they agree at about 5 years 3.65per.

    STEVE, YOU KEEP THE KEEPERS! There’s just no way they fuck this one up…..right?

  60. RickDeckard says:

    On his ship, the ‘Rocinante’
    Wheeling through the lotteries,
    Trading for the Jack of Johnson
    Headlong into misery

    The draft slot is his siren song
    Tambo can’t resist him long
    Nearer to our Dubnyk’s goal
    Until the Black Hole —
    Gains control…

  61. delooper says:

    Let me whip out my Megyn Kelly alter-ego “is this just the math you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better?”

    No way the Oilers trade Smid. Never. Nope. No no no.

  62. jbfuzz says:

    Nice sleuthing Woodguy – while I have no idea about Smid (and would hope they can lock him up if the number is $3 – $3.5 million over 3 or 4 years) I’m in agreement about the JJ trade, though I think it might be something like Hemsky for JJ. CBJ gets a superior player and out from under that awful contractLAK signed JJ to. The Oilers get… the equivalent of a 5 tool outfielder with poor patience at the plate and the tendency to lose focus in the field. Looks like a player, sounds like a player, but the pieces don’t fit together properly.

    I think the Oilers’ brass see JJas a replacement for Whitney.

  63. jimbones100 says:

    Woodguy great article. Thank you very much for taking the time to share.

    I understood the article as I think you intended (your personal reading of the tea leaves). I found it interesting and agree these items seem to add up to the possibilities you suggested.

  64. Gerta Rauss says:

    RickDeckard,

    I see what you did there.

    Well done.

  65. Gerta Rauss says:

    delooper: And here I thought Staples was an office-supply chain.

    That was easy.

  66. TG says:

    In no way would I like to see Smid traded, or replaced with Johnson, but I think to be fair to JJ here are his stats from this year (from behindthenet, with is rank among Columbus defenceman playing 10 games or more)
    Jack Johnson 4.36/yr to 2017/18; age 26
    0.48 PPG
    5/5 TOI 1st(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 1st
    4/5 TOI 1st
    5/5 +/- QOC 1st
    5/5 Corsi QOC 3rd
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 1st
    Off Zone Start 41.9% (7th)
    Off Zone Finish 52.5%
    Corsi -4.99 (5th)
    RelCorsi -7 (7th)

    Versus teammates:
    Fedor Tyutin 4.5/yr to 2017/2018; age 29
    0.52 PPG
    5/5 TOI 2nd(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 3rd
    4/5 TOI 2nd
    5/5 +/- QOC 5th
    5/5 Corsi QOC 2nd
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 2nd
    Off Zone Start 45.8% (5th)
    Off Zone Finish 55.3%
    Corsi -6.89 (7th)
    RelCorsi -6.3 (6th)

    James Wisniewski 5.5/yr to 2016/17; age 29
    0.60 PPG
    5/5 TOI 3rd(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 2nd
    4/5 TOI 4th
    5/5 +/- QOC 2nd
    5/5 Corsi QOC 7th
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 4th
    Off Zone Start 47.3% (4th)
    Off Zone Finish 53.7%
    Corsi 2.01 (2nd)
    RelCorsi 3.4 (2nd)

    Versus other defenceman that are undoubtedly #1 defenceman or treated as by their teams (with their rank amongst their own teammates):
    Ryan Suter 7.54/yr to 2024/25; age28
    0.72 PPG
    5/5 TOI 1st(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 1st
    4/5 TOI 1st
    5/5 +/- QOC 2nd
    5/5 Corsi QOC 2nd
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 2nd
    Off Zone Start 48.1% (4th)
    Off Zone Finish 45.5%
    Corsi -8.43 (7th)
    RelCorsi -4.9 (7th)

    Shea Weber 7.86/yr to 2025/26; age 27
    0.54 PPG
    5/5 TOI 1st(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 1st
    4/5 TOI 4th
    5/5 +/- QOC 1st
    5/5 Corsi QOC 1st
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 1st
    Off Zone Start 41.4% (6th)
    Off Zone Finish 38.8%
    Corsi -8.73 (6th)
    RelCorsi -4.3 (6th)

    Zdeno Chara 6.92/yr to 2017/18; age 35
    0.46 PPG
    5/5 TOI 2nd(of 6)
    5/4 TOI 1st
    4/5 TOI 1st
    5/5 +/- QOC 1st
    5/5 Corsi QOC 2nd
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 2nd
    Off Zone Start 47.7% (5th)
    Off Zone Finish 44.0%
    Corsi 12.41 (2nd)
    RelCorsi 2.5 (2nd)

    Jay Bouwmeester 6.68/yr to 2013/14; age 29
    0.50 PPG
    5/5 TOI 1st(of 6)
    5/4 TOI 4th
    4/5 TOI 1st
    5/5 +/- QOC 1st
    5/5 Corsi QOC 1st
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 2nd
    Off Zone Start 40.1% (6th)
    Off Zone Finish 48.0%
    Corsi -6.72 (4th)
    RelCorsi -9.6 (5th)

    Dion Phaneuf 6.5/yr to 2013/14; age 27
    0.56 PPG
    5/5 TOI 1st(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 1st
    4/5 TOI 1st
    5/5 +/- QOC 1st
    5/5 Corsi QOC 1st
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 1st
    Off Zone Start 39.2% (7th)
    Off Zone Finish 40.2%
    Corsi -16.01 (6th)
    RelCorsi -11 (6th)

    Duncan Keith 5.54/yr to 2022/23; age 29
    0.50 PPG
    5/5 TOI 1st(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 2nd
    4/5 TOI 4th
    5/5 +/- QOC 5th
    5/5 Corsi QOC 3rd
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 4th
    Off Zone Start 54.1% (4th)
    Off Zone Finish 48.4%
    Corsi -0.42 (5th)
    RelCorsi -10.9 (6th)

    Mike Green 6.08/yr to 2014/15; age 27
    0.44 PPG
    5/5 TOI 1st(of 6)
    5/4 TOI 1st
    4/5 TOI 4th
    5/5 +/- QOC 7th
    5/5 Corsi QOC 7th
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 4th
    Off Zone Start 44.9% (6th)
    Off Zone Finish 47.6%
    Corsi 2.93 (1st)
    RelCorsi -0.4 (3rd)

    Brent Seabrook 5.8/yr to 2015/16; age 27
    0.44 PPG
    5/5 TOI 4th (of 7)
    5/4 TOI 3rd
    4/5 TOI 3rd
    5/5 +/- QOC 4th
    5/5 Corsi QOC 4th
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 3rd
    Off Zone Start 55.7% (3rd)
    Off Zone Finish 48.8%
    Corsi -2.26 (6th)
    Rel Corsi -13.3 (7th)

    Drew Doughty 7/yr to 2018/19; age 23
    0.40 PPG
    5/5 TOI 1st(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 1st
    4/5 TOI 3rd
    5/5 +/- QOC 2nd
    5/5 Corsi QOC 2nd
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 2nd
    Off Zone Start 53.8% (5th)
    Off Zone Finish 52.5%
    Corsi 13.87 (5th)
    RelCorsi -6.3 (5th)

    Versus Smid:
    Ladislav Smid ???; age27
    0.08 PPG
    5/5 TOI 3rd(of 7)
    5/4 TOI 6th
    4/5 TOI 2nd
    5/5 +/- QOC 3rd
    5/5 Corsi QOC 6th
    5/5 RelCorsi QOC 2nd
    Off Zone Start 46.3% (5th)
    Off Zone Finish 47.7%
    Corsi -11.18 (2nd)
    RelCorsi 2.0 (2nd)

  67. Gerta Rauss says:

    RickDeckard: On his ship, the ‘Rocinante’Wheeling through the lotteries,Trading for the Jack of JohnsonHeadlong into miseryThe draft slot is his siren songTambo can’t resist him longNearer to our Dubnyk’s goalUntil the Black Hole —Gains control…

    It was Johnson that said Farewell to the Kings.

  68. Woodguy says:

    bookje,

    Why is Grebeshkov good other than we thought he was ok when he was here? His KHL record is marginal.

    KHL doesn’t give out 2nd assists like the NHL does. Bank it off someone’s ass then it hits another guy in the head then goes is and ass man gets an assist.

    You can make a good outlet pass in the KHL and 1 pass later its in the net and not get an assist.

    Dmen don’t get points in the KHL like they do in the NHL.

    Also read that he’s happy with his new team.

    Also,

    He’ll only be 30 next TC.

    For his years in the NHL from 07-09 here is how he affected his top 20 linemates:

    GILBERT, TOM 49.7 46.2 3.5
    GAGNER, SAM 50.8 46.1 4.7
    HEMSKY, ALES 49.7 49.6 0.1
    PENNER, DUSTIN 48.7 49.5 -0.8
    COGLIANO, ANDREW 50.1 44 6.1
    HORCOFF, SHAWN 49.9 49.8 0.1
    NILSSON, ROBERT 52.7 47.4 5.3
    VISNOVSKY, LUBOMIR 50.5 47.5 3
    BRODZIAK, KYLE 45.3 44 1.3
    MOREAU, ETHAN 44.3 42.1 2.2
    PISANI, FERNANDO 46.2 43.8 2.4
    POULIOT, MARC-ANTOINE 49.8 43.4 6.4
    STORTINI, ZACK 46.7 39.1 7.6
    REASONER, MARTY 46.5 45.3 1.2
    COLE, ERIK 53.4 52.8 0.6
    STOLL, JARRET 48.6 47.5 1.1
    STAIOS, STEVE 44.3 44.2 0.1
    ROURKE, ALLAN 42.7 28.6 14.1
    TORRES, RAFFI 50.5 47 3.5
    O_SULLIVAN, PATRICK 52.5 49.5 3

    Only 1 player had a worse shot attempt differential with him on the ice, and that was only -0.8

    Played 2nd toughs and came out ahead.

    Great first pass, good skating.

    Like acid a little too much, but that’s the only thing.

  69. TG says:

    To me, he seems to be putting up reasonable offensive numbers and reasonable Corsi given the zone starts, playing top minutes against top opposition and moving the puck to the offensive zone. Numbers similar to Bouwmeester, Weber, Suter, etc.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Minister D-,

    First: I admit I’m not really sure what the Detroit rumours have to do with the rest of the article. If the point was to suggest that the caller has some sort of insider knowledge, I don’t know… what he said wasn’t exactly rocket science.

    Did you listen to the conversation with Bob and the caller in the link?

    I put that in there to give the conversation context.

    If you listen to how Bob says ” “Wow. You haven’t been intercepting any emails of late have you?””, he’s implying that he know some of goings on of what is being offered to the Oilers or what the Oilers are offering.

    Sets the table for the next part not just Bob blueskying and filling air.

    If you didn’t listen to the conversation I can see how it looks out of place now that I read it again.

  71. BlacqueJacque says:

    Aww this isn’t good.

    The Red Wings trotted Gustafsson out and may lose despite dominating the Flames in play. Kipper’s been very good and Monster has been anything but.

    We’re gonna get Howard and a full effort from them if they lose. :/

  72. Woodguy says:

    bookje,

    I am not saying Smid signs here, but just suggesting that I think declarations that this is a ‘done deal’ are jumping the gun a bit and there is not a history of these types of predictions being correct.

    Oilers have a history of negotiating early with players they want to sign.

    Horcoff in his contract year started negotiations very early in the year.

    There are others I can’t off the top of my head, will search Al Gore.

    Hemsky signing right near the deadline is the exception, not the rule with the Oilers since Lowe took over.

    Smyth case last year cannot be compared to Smid at all.

    Smid is young and would be in high demand.

    Smyth was old, not in high demand and it was well known that his wife wanted to move back here to raise the kids.

    If you want your player, you sign him before it becomes a distraction for him and his team mates near the deadline.

  73. RickDeckard says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    It’s OK though, Tambellini says he has Grace Under Pressure.

  74. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: David is a good and decent person based on my interactions with him, and he approaches things from a unique angle. One of the things I’ve noticed about the internet is people (in general) adopt a viewpoint and then hammer away at those who disagree.

    I’m all for hammering away, but take the time to figure out what the person is saying. I don’t agree with David on many things, but he’s always been forthright with me on any questions I’ve had and defends his position–often against some pretty vicious and vocal opposition.

    I would also add that Staples was the first msm to bring the Oilogosphere into the light of day.

    Agreed.

    I corrected David on twitter and he re-tweeted the correct take right away and then again later.

    I disagree with David on many things about hockey, but he’s always been a gentleman and civil.

    I try to be the same back.

    Unless we are discussing Jones.

  75. Woodguy says:

    jbfuzz,

    Nice sleuthing Woodguy –

    I’d characterize it as speculating, but thanks.

  76. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Rajala another point (goal) tonight. What in hell are they going ton do with him?

    Human Growth Hormone.

  77. RickDeckard says:

    Woodguy,

    I prefer to call it the Barcelona method.

  78. gogliano says:

    Pretty amazing six point spread from 3rd to 15th after Calgary’s win tonight.

    I’m sure Bettman couldn’t be happier.

  79. Woodguy says:

    TG,

    24 games is still a little early to make conclusions when a player doesn’t have a history of playing at a certain level.

    Lots of those players you show have a history of very good performance, so I think it just shows how much small samples can affect things.

    Suter is having a terrible year in MIN though. Lordy.

    JJ is having a better year so far in a few items, but is still not very good at shot attempt differential.

    Two of my favorites, Tyutin and Nikitin are having worse years. Both of them led CBJ in short attempt differential last year.

    If JJ puts up a solid year that would be good for him, but I’d need to see more before you can declare a guy has turned the corner, but maybe he has?

    Just the same I’m not saying Suter is awful because of his first 24 games with a new team because he has a history of being very good.

    The stats presented in the post are over 3-4 years. That’s enough to get a feel for what a player is.

    Doesn’t mean he can’t get better, just means its less likely given that there hasn’t been a whole lot of incremental movement along the way.

    If you want to look at JJ’s numbers this year, a couple things stood out:

    His WOWY has 7/15 better with him. That’s an improvement, but still not good.

    His main partner (Wis) is fully 8% better without him.

    Johnson drops 3% without Wisneiwski

    We need to be careful with WOWY’s sometimes because the results could be a function of when Wis doesn’t play with him, he gets to play easier comp, but I don’t think there is a whole lot of difference between who Wis sees with JJ and without, the quality level in the top 3 lines of most NHL doesn’t fall off a cliff.

    When looking at forwards sometimes WOWY are misleading because they are a trio and when player X gets moved off of the line XYZ his production might fall.

    You look at his WOWY with Y and Z and he is worse away from both, but in reality it may just be player Y driving the bus and not Z, but Z is riding Y’s coat tails.

    When you look at the WOWY’s they are sorted by TOI so you can suss out their most common line mates and run them all away from each to see who is driving.

    I think WOWY works more clearly for Dmen as they don’t change partners as often, but are on the ice with many different forwards for similar amounts of TOI.

  80. "Steve Smith" says:

    stevezie: Why? I wouldn’t take Johnson’s contract if you gave it to me. As a gift.

    Well shit, I’m glad I read this before your birthday.

    If you’ll excuse me, I need to see if Scott Howson’s successor will honour his return policy.

  81. jp says:

    OK, before I start, I want to say that I’m not trying to suggest that Johnson is a good player, or that the Oilers should trade for him. BUT, he has been better this season. Whether that’s complete fluke/small sample size or he’s actually “getting it”, I have no idea.

    Johnson’s CorsiRel is still pretty ugly (-7.0, worst on the Jackets, 163rd of 210 among D with more than 10 GP, and better only than Whitney among Oilers D). He has, however, faced the toughest competition and had the most difficult zone starts of any Jackets D (41.9% OZ with 52.5% OZ finish). In fact, that’s the 14th most difficult ZS number in the league for D). Given the circumstances, his CorsiRel is at least approaching acceptable (in contrast to past seasons where it was even worse without difficult ZS or competition).

    As I said, no idea if this improvement is for real, but it’s at least plausible that he’s finally learning how to play D. He’s at the right age to figure it out, and had a late start being shown the D-zone from the sounds of it. I think it’s also worth noting that he’s gotten loads of ice time from multiple different coaches over his career. I don’t think we’re quite dealing with Barker here (or at least there’s a possibility we aren’t).

    I think I’m just preparing myself for the possibility the Oilers acquire Johnson here. Believe me, I’m not trying to make an argument for picking him up. Just that it if does happen, there’s a chance it might not so terrible. Possibly.

    Edit: clearly I’ve been looking up Jack Johnson for too long…

  82. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”: Well shit, I’m glad I read this before your birthday.

    If you’ll excuse me, I need to see if Scott Howson’s successor will honour his return policy.

    Hope you got it from Home Depot.

    They take back everything.

  83. Kitchener says:

    I like seeing trade speculation for getting a top-shelf young D, but talk of JJ makes me nauseous. Especially with talk of a price like Magnus or Hemsky. Sickening.

    Please, dear Organians, inspire Howson to tell the brass, “under no circumstances acquire JJ”

  84. stevezie says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I mean, it’s still nice to be thought of, but…

  85. bookje says:

    Woodguy,

    I don’t think there are enough cases or similarities between them to draw a pattern – Horcoff was pre-Tambellini. I think they want to test the market for Smid just to see if some team in a playoff race or with visions of a Stanley cup will trade for him to bolster their defence and will give up a lot of assets to do so. If Smid’s heart is really in Edmonton, they could sign him again this summer.

    My prediction is that they sign him on deadline day. I am willing to bet 50 Lowetide Points on that.

  86. bookje says:

    WoodGuy – Re Grebs, I actually forgot that they don’t have a second assist in the KHL. Outside of points it’s hard to know much about what happens there (I don’t even know the teams). I will be fine if they sign him and bring him over and he does well. If he comes over and sucks though, I am going to tell Steve Tambellini to fire you for recommending him. Somebody needs to be held responsible for screw ups like that!

  87. TG says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks Woodguy – I appreciate the small sample size and wasn’t suggesting he’s a first pairing defenceman based on the numbers he’s put up in 20-odd games. Really just wanted to say that I understand that appeal, considering he’s performed pretty well in a tough role.

    Regarding WOWY – it seems to me that applying WOWY to someone playing the worse zone starts and toughest competition gives an obvious result and 7/15 is reasonable performance; the expected magnitude of the improvement isn’t obvious to me and I don’t agree that the difference in facing 1st/2nd lines vs 2nd/3rd lines isn’t significant enough to account for that 8%.

  88. Chunklets says:

    bookje,

    Just to clarify, they do in fact award 2nd assists in the KHL. They may, or may not, award them differently (there may be strange rules about incidental contact with the puck, etc.), but they are there!

    Grebs had two really good seasons in the KHL with SKA St. Petersburg. In 2010-11, he went 8-9-17, +18 in 54 games, and followed that up with a line of 46 gp, 0-8-8, +16 in 2011-12. This season, however, things didn’t seem to go as well. He was dealt by SKA early in the season, with 1 assist and a -4 in 14 games (SKA ended up +66 for the whole season – they’re good!). With his new team, the far weaker Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk, he played 30 games and posted 7 assists, with a -7 rating on a team that went -10 for the season*. Yugra, in the end, missed the playoffs by a whisker and Grebs went pointless in 4 games as they were subsequently knocked out of the KHL’s postseason tournament for non-playoff teams.

    So that’s where he’s at right now! As has been pointed out though, he’s not that old, and overall he’s done well in the KHL. I’d very definitely like to see him back in an Oilers uniform!

    *Note on the +/- thing: I haven’t actually sorted out what the teams’ +/- was with Grebeshkov in the lineup, so those scores are for the full season. The do lend a little bit of context, however.

  89. Ryan says:

    Bruce, whatever happened to that Oiler stats blogger thing?

    Can’t you fire off an email, “JJ is no thnx”

    Bruce McCurdy: So says the man who has “traded” Smid about 30 times in the past 6 years.

    Whereas in real life the Oilers only traded him the once …

  90. Ryan says:

    Hey, guess who looks like a champ at btn?

    Yeah, I know advanced stats suck for dmen.

    Fistric. Toughest zone start, qoc, and corsi qoc. Only dman with + /60 5v5.

    Best 4v5 gaon/60.

  91. G Money says:

    RickDeckard:
    Gerta Rauss,

    It’s OK though, Tambellini says he has Grace Under Pressure.

    Thumbs up on the exchange!

    Went to see them when they were in Edmonton, and I got my tickets for the Calgary show!

  92. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ryan,

    Fistric’s positive plus/minus is enormously affected by his easily team-highest PDO (the only one above 1000). His RelCorsi, which is not so-influenced, has him ahead of only Whitney.

    I like Fistric fine, but he’s a third pairing guy, and not an exceptionally good one.

  93. Traktor says:

    Why hasn’t any other team signed grebs since he last played in the NHL?

    I would trade for Johnson.

  94. Woodguy says:

    TG:
    Woodguy,

    Thanks Woodguy – I appreciate the small sample size and wasn’t suggesting he’s a first pairing defenceman based on the numbers he’s put up in 20-odd games. Really just wanted to say that I understand that appeal, considering he’s performed pretty well in a tough role.

    Regarding WOWY – it seems to me that applying WOWY to someone playing the worse zone starts and toughest competition gives an obvious result and 7/15 is reasonable performance; the expected magnitude of the improvement isn’t obvious to me and I don’t agree that the difference in facing 1st/2nd lines vs 2nd/3rd lines isn’t significant enough to account for that 8%.

    I also always use zone start adjusted shot attempt differential (CF% on stats.hockeyanalysis.com)

    It uses a coefficient to account for ZS in the shot attempt data.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    Why hasn’t any other team signed grebs since he lastplayed in the NHL?

    I would trade for Johnson.

    He was under contract.

    What would you trade for Johnson?

  96. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Hey, guess who looks like a champ at btn?

    Yeah, I know advanced stats suck for dmen.

    Fistric.Toughest zone start, qoc, and corsi qoc.Only dman with + /60 5v5.

    Best 4v5 gaon/60.

    In terms of shot attempt differential, he’s not good.

    Using goals against as a measure for skaters causes wild fluctuations that almost show no pattern over time. Very, very goalie and luck dependent.

    Shots attempts for/against works much better.

  97. gcw_rocks says:

    Well, way to go and ruin my morning! Smid at the right price is a very good asset, and if he IS traded, it damn well better be for a hockey player, not magic beans. And Jack Johnson? You have got to be fucking kidding me?

    I would like to point out that if a trade that big happens, there is no bleeping way it happens without MacT’s input, and all of you who think MacT will be a savior for this franchise will have been proven wrong. After all, if he really is 2-3 months away from becoming the GM, there is no way he lets this trade happen unless he is as big a moron as Lowe and Tambo. He would be living with the consequences for years.

  98. gcw_rocks says:

    I like the White for Omark option on that Wings’ blog. White is an upgrade on our bottom pairing and it turns an asset that’s about to walk for nothing into something.

  99. russ99 says:

    I’m not violently opposed to dealing Smid, as long as we can get a good asset in return and have a plan in place to replace him with someone better.

    Wouldn’t mind getting a size forward for Smid, then trade picks/prospects to the Islanders for rights to Streit, who is one of the few FA defensemen better than Smid.

    Going to be difficult to make deals for quality pieces without moving one of the five kids, so Gagner, Hemsky and Smid are our best trade chips. Don’t really want any of them to go, buy you have to give to get.

    I would prefer fixing all the myriad holes on the roster in FA, but that’s expensive, there’s limited talent and then the playing in Edmonton issue, which the kids alleviate, but not remove.

    Just say no to Jack Johnson. There’s better players out there.

    PS – posting works on iPhone again. :)

  100. Ryan says:

    Well, how do you evaluate a player by Corsi like that when he has the worst zones start by a mile?

    His Off zone start is 38.9%

    Whitney’s is 48.2%

    Fistric’s QOC metrics are hardest on the team vs. Whitney’s easiest.

    “Steve Smith”:
    Ryan,

    Fistric’s positive plus/minus is enormously affected by his easily team-highest PDO (the only one above 1000).His RelCorsi, which is not so-influenced, has him ahead of only Whitney.

    I like Fistric fine, but he’s a third pairing guy, and not an exceptionally good one.

  101. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    Do you think they would take Eager and Hordichuk? lol

  102. russ99 says:

    I wish there was an adjusted Corsi stat for defensemen where it reduced the bonus that Corsi inherently has for offensive defensemen.

    Whitney will get the puck in the offensive zone and directly contribute to shot totals for when on the ice, where a guy like Fistric will not, so he has more potential for numbers in the plus column to balance out the negative column – which means his offense could make his defense look less ugly.

  103. rickithebear says:

    Ryan: Well, how do you evaluate a player by Corsi like that when he has the worst zones start by a mile?His Off zone start is 38.9%Whitney’s is 48.2%Fistric’s QOC metrics are hardest on the team vs. Whitney’s easiest.

    DONT TRY!

    JJ just Scares me!
    We would be trading for a little more physical
    TOM GILBERT!
    I must say your guys love of JJ is consistent with your love of Gilbert! LOL!

  104. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “Oilers have a history of negotiating early with players they want to sign.”

    Woodguy,

    Teams have a history of not making an early offer when the agent is asking for a premium for an early signing. That was pretty much academic as long as Edmonton was paying the 29th destination premium.

    Whatever the agent or Daryl just phoned me says, if the player is only looking for top bidder he doesn’t sign at the deadline. If the player is willing to do a discount he signed before the deadline. If both sides have a good grasp on dollars rational teams get it done (that excludes EIG when it tore itself apart). If it’s about a risky term its all about the player willing to go shorter.

    I think Smid signs about a day earlier than Hemsky as valuation is harder after a run of injury impacted seasons.

  105. Roughneck says:

    Clearly my alzheimers skews specific details (in a damien cox kinda way). But is JJ the cancerous one or is that just an impression left from his world junior days.

  106. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: He was under contract.

    What would you trade for Johnson?

    One of our forwards. Maybe Hemsky.

  107. spoiler says:

    WG,

    This might be of interest to you considering the business you’re in (non-hockey-related link):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-14/landlord-blackstone-rushes-capitalize-housing-bubble-launching-first-ever-reo-rent-s

    As for Jackie J… I think Bob was merely speculating off the top of his head w.r.t. the Jackets. I think there’s very little chance of JJ coming here. The Wings things seems more likely as Bob was referring to past “conversations”..

  108. spoiler says:

    gcw_rocks: I like the White for Omark option on that Wings’ blog. White is an upgrade on our bottom pairing and it turns an asset that’s about to walk for nothing into something.

    Why wouldn’t the Wings wait and pick up Omark for nothing?

    I can see them preferring a trade if they want to dump White’s contract, but that’s the only reason I can divine.

  109. gcw_rocks says:

    spoiler,

    Three reasons, the first of which you nailed, they want to rid themselves of the contract, second, they remove a potential distraction from the lockerroom, and third, they may view Omark as a player who can help their offense right now to help them this season.

    Otherwise, you are right, they wait.

  110. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear:
    I must say your guys love of JJ…

    What?

  111. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    I can see incomes from rentals decreasesing rapidly.

    When the housing bubble burst, everyone who lost their home still needed somehwere to live so the rental market got vey tight.

    In PHX (where I have property) you could buy a 1800sqft house with 2.5 baths for $80K in some spots, but the same house to rent was $1500/mo.

    No one qualified for mortgages so up went rents.

    Market responded immediately and 4 storey walk ups went up like termite mounds everywhere to satisfy the demand and make a return.

    Building rentals was driving construction much more than new single families.

    If the investment companies were basing their returns on the $1500/mo, they finding they are shit out luck because that same house now rents for $1000 due to demand being met.

    That article more bitches about sercuritizing the debt based on shakey returns more than anything.

    If they sell the assets like the CAL companby did it would dump more housing on the market, but if the prices drop from the dumping, holding onto the assets with a less than stellar return will dictate they hold on and keep the cash flow from the rental income.

    The “new bubble” is a little hysterical.

    Agree that if they are securitizing the debt, its not a great investment, but I doubt it explodes because you are not relying on individual homeowners keeping up with payments they can’t afford.

    The response in this scenario is more of lowered rents and shitty returns on debt.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: One of our forwards. Maybe Hemsky.

    Is he playing 1st pair or 2nd?

  113. PaperDesigner says:

    “Steve Smith”: What?

    I believe our friend has wandered in from a parallel dimension. There, the Oilers are a balanced, championship team that has acquired Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov through shrewd trades with bottom of the barrel team, and has assembled a quality group of veterans that are driving play, while smartly interspersing their young players, while the blogs continually demand more enforcers, functional toughness and 40 year old injury prone goaltenders since the team has regrettably failed to win the Stanley Cup in three of the past six years. Signing Cam Barker and trading for Jack Johnson are widely seen as the foundational steps in solving the problem amongst the blogosphere, and are continually decrying management for repeatedly stressing Corsi, WOWY, and a variety of other advanced statistics.

    We can only hope our friend will inform us as to how we can get to the other side. I’m pretty sure free beer is part of the package there too.

  114. wordbird says:

    It’s my fault.

    I had to go and order a #5 Smid jersey.

    Just like when you wash your car, then it rains…

  115. WeridAl says:

    Woodguy what ever your smoking, you can send some my way, cannot believe anyone would think JJ is a option for the Oilers. This crazy idea has been floating around for about a couple of weeks now. As to Smid, everyone knows the Oilers keep their negotiations private, it’s like getting blood out of a stone. Knowing the Oilers, the signing of Smid will get done, but their own speed. Question what is Smid worth? To be honest his play hasn’t been up to the level it was last season.

  116. stevezie says:

    spoiler: Why wouldn’t the Wings wait and pick up Omark for nothing?

    I can see them preferring a trade if they want to dump White’s contract, but that’s the only reason I can divine.

    They do.

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