RED WINGS AT OILERS G27 (12-13) 15.3.13
If the Edmonton Oilers were facing an expansion draft this summer, would it be difficult to choose 1 goalie, 5 defensemen and 9 forwards who represent the heart of the current cluster?
If we assume that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz are protected automatically from the draft (along with the 2011 and 2012 draft class as a whole), can we put together a typical 9-5-1 draft list without losing anyone of use? It’s a fun exercise and does speak to the depth in any organization.
- G Devan Dubnyk
- D Jeff Petry
- D Nick Schultz
- D Theo Peckham
- D Taylor Fedun
- D Colten Teubert
- C Sam Gagner
- C Shawn Horcoff
- C Anton Lander
- L Taylor Hall
- L Teemu Hartikainen
- L Magnus Paajarvi
- R Ales Hemsky
- R Jordan Eberle
- R Mike Brown
Wow. Not a lot of depth, even if you add ufa’s Smid and Fistric on the blue and Ryan Jones up front. Lots of work, Mr. Tambellini.
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Edmonton is moving west next season. The new realignment is discussed here. I can’t really get excited about this, the NHL has long since taken the fun out of it for me. Why in hellacious acres can’t they leave things the hell alone? Detroit wants to go east, bring Winnipeg here and no one is going to watch Columbus if they’re shitty so what division they play in doesn’t matter.
Right?
Lordy.
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This Mike Brown story is kind of hilarious. Toronto deals him and steps into the elevator shaft. Meanwhile, the Oilers have responded since he scored that goal.
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PLEASE for the love of God cheer Shawn Horcoff. Even if its just to drown out the booing, and to remind people of the blocked shot using his face in Detroit spring 2006.
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The Oilers are a hot streak away from being in contention for the playoffs, and of course a losing streak away from being in the basement. I’ve always felt this team would blow past the middling crowd (which in the west is far from middling) the moment Taylor Hall found that “next” gear. I think he’s close (point-per-game) and he’s the key down the stretch. This could be fun!
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That’s a funny tweet from dawgbone. It’s true, the Oilers brass is saying things like “we wanted to be in contention for a playoff spot” so the sun is out for the suits. However, as db says, the Hockey Gods seem to enjoy watching the Oilers fall right on their ass when they get above the event horizon and begin shooting for something that matters.
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I wrote about college free agent Dan DeKeyser over at Oilers Nation about a month ago, saying:
- Dan DeKeyser is probably the top college free agent in this year’s class, and he would be an excellent addition for the Oilers. The stay-at-home defender has good size, is an excellent skater and at 22 is a mature prospect. All 30 teams are apparently interested but the Detroit Red Wings may have the inside track (this is based on last spring’s rumblings).
Now I see Richard Cloutier has an article up on the same subject (with much more detail). It’s an interesting item, and as we get close to these college free agents signing it’s something to keep in mind.
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Devan Dubnyk has a .958SP in his last two games. You know that won’t continue (unsustainable) but I do think he’s giving the Oilers every chance to win. His .916SP ranks him mid-pack and his 4×5 SP (.922) has him near the top. We should expect some regression, especially on 4×5.
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I see Keegan Lowe signed his entry level deal yesterday, good for him. He had a strong year in 12-13, and hopefully he can carve out a career; can’t imagine how tough it must be to follow in the footsteps of a famous father.
The Oilers have some work of their own to do on this front, with Martin Gernat and Tobias Rieder still unsigned. I talked to Guy Flaming on the radio show a couple of weeks ago, and he suggested they might sign Gernat and then send him to Europe. The feeling I got from Guy was that Gernat is too “raw” for AHL calibre opposition. Interesting take.
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I don’t have much to say about tonight’s game. The Oilers don’t play well against Detroit, haven’t since Orgrodnick based on memory. It’s time to sit back and cheer for the town team. Go you Oilers!
Woodguy was right, Brown has totally been a boon for the Oilers and Toronto is deflated without him.
delooper,
Don’t think so. Think it happened because of how Paajarvi got some extra minutes due to Brown being in the box, so he double shifted Hall.
That 2 goal lead again, I’m terrified of it.
Ho hum. I want to see THE BALLISTIC LINE.
Gimmie!
If this were an 82-game season, Gagner would be on pace for 33 goals.
Now imagine how scared you’ll be with the dreaded three goal lead!
Brown is wonderful. Pajaarvi is making uber plays I wouldn’t trade him for that 36 year old clapped out Wing myself, boy do the Wings ever look like a spent, washed up, and well deserving 9th place hockey team.
They’re history.
if a Hall-Gagner-Yakupov line can produce sustainably, it opens up some tantalizing possibilities down the lineup.
Nice period, especially 91 and 4.
Potter doesn’t belong out there. A game like this happens way to fast for him
He won’t count to the 50 man limit while in Junior, just like Musil doesn’t.
I can buy him wanting more than 4th rounder money. I would too, he’s ahead on the depth chart of first rounders.
Really, he’ll be on an ELC, so they can’t be that far apart. If 100,000 is the reason why they lose him, I’ll tear my hair out. Not only that, but he’s made the transition to centre excellently, which is where the Oilers have the least amount of depth. They still have some time, but the Oilers always make me nervous.
Think it was temporary due to Brown but they looked like a nice tandem. Horc-Hemsky-Hall is a pretty legit line though.
Very impressive effort.
Red Wings should be motivated – they’re in 8th and every point matters so much more, they’re just starting the road trip and this could be a second loss in a row, they’re relatively rested after 3 days off in Detroit before flying out to Calgary and then having a day off after the loss there. They’re playing their starter, after Gustavsson let them down.
And the Oilers are kicking their teeth in on the shot clock.
I wonder what a 3 game winning streak feels like.
I haven’t seen the Oilers get consistent zone exits like this in a while. Great support by the forwards.
Eberle, when he comes down on the left wing, always seems to post up on the half-wall. Detroit has recognized and consistently pressures him with two, usually leading to a turnover. He should change it up and drive to the corner and/or line mates need to recognize the pressure better and move in for that 5 footer.
Once Jeff Petry hits puberty he’ll be a force on the blue line.
If they keep this together, Detroit will probably try to give that line a tougher matchup. I think the Gagner line has benefited from the RNH line taking a tougher matchup. Gagner et al should be able to destroy most 3rd lines if you’re going power vs power.
Petry looks like he’s been visiting Fuhr Uni. Explains the drop off in play.
I think the key now is to get Brown on one of those scoring lines.
Surprised no one mentioning the football player’s son CFL on ice play Taylor Hall made to set up that goal.
It’s basically Hall saying “I’m walking here” to rest of the NHL.
We should ask Woodguy to set the over/under on Hall becoming an unstoppable force.
What are you drinking tonight LT?
danny,
Forgot to add the obvious caveat, when you have a front office capable of winning a trade.
Looks like Calgary is doing us a regulation win favor tonight.
dessert1111,
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Gogliano: What’s a Calgary?
Crown Royal. My sister-in-law is a bad influence.
I don’t suppose Oilers win streak, and my incredible eight days away from alcohol in all forms have any correlation.
I might try staying like this for a little while longer, just to see if it works. Fuck St Paddy’s; especially after that time I ended up crawling up the street on my hands and knees to get home, and many other irish leprechaun themed adventures too numerous for this blog.
RK channeling Renney’s Petrell decision from last year?
Naples NY is pretty cute, too. Cuter than Rome or Watkins Glen.
Mexico NY is not so nice.
Dennis King @DKingBH
2nd period chances: 10-4; 0-1 ST. After 40 min: 15-7; 1-2
Neh, go to a nice Centennial right out of High River. A smooth rye, who’d ha thunk it.
Met a pretentious lady who only drank Crown and Coke. A fitting end I thought.
As soon as I figure out how to upload booze through the internet, I’ve got some Van Winkle to send you.
I’m just kidding. If Krueger changes the top 9 he’s a numbskull.
I can’t imagine why.
Bos8,
Another Centennial fan! My go-to, with scotch and cognac being reserved for special occasions.
Dubnyk needs a cool nickname, like “The Undertaker”.
A pseudo-stat that always intrigued me, and by pseudo, I mean something I conjured up in my head… but how much of a seasob is dependant on how well your opposition has been playing when you face them. Ive long considered creating some sort of script to calculate a value that takes an opponents previous and post wins/losses into consideration. I remember distinctly a few stretches where the Oilers have played multiple teams in the midst of hot streaks.
Its a luck/variance thing… but much like the shootout, id imagine there would be an expected value based on teams true winning percentages versus teams that are playing within a streak.
I know its maybe useless in terms of stats due to small sample sizes, but its a real thing nonetheless. Sometimes you get teams at the right time, sometimes you dont. Sometimes it happens in bunches.
my wife calls him “The Pierogie Monster”, because he is a Ukranian giant, but i don’t suppose that meets the criteria for “cool”.
Ugh.
Oilers cannot play like this; protecting the lead.
Dubnyk didn’t have much of a chance on that. Just a good play by Filppula.
Horc got caught in a bad spot there
Terrible play be Whitney
The Undertaker needs to lay off the formaldehyde after that goal.
uh oh.
That goal has me knocking back water like a drunk.
Ryan Whitney is pretty low on my list of defenders I want facing Datsyuk.
Another penalty kill broken heart served up by the Undertaker.
Looks like the teams both switched back to their regular jerseys in the intermission.
That’s at least 3 times red wing dmen have set themselves up for a face plant into the glass. Do coaches teach this now?
3-1 or 4-2 score tonight.
khildahl,
The Undertaker probably just doesn’t like his save % getting too high – hence the odd soft looking goal.
One day they’re going to call penalties to goalies for freezing the play.
God damn it, Horcoff..
Seriously, calling him that really makes me want to see him tombstone one of the Wings.
Refs suddenly appear to be on “Let’s help the visitors” mode.
Fin interfetence all over the place!
Yup, gagner is the same as wellwood. Whoever said that is an idiot.
Brown’s playing on the PK!??
That play by Nuge there might be the play of the game.
tends to happen when the wings are in town.
The Undertaker shuts the door – again.
Thought #91 was gonna make me envelop this Jameson.
I believe it was a dashing silver fox.
I’ll always remember one of the Oilers’ D getting an interference penalty at the Detroit blueline when one of their forwards backed into him in the ’06 series.
Dubnyk could be called The Big Vareneki.
Dubnyk’s starting to get into the opposition heads – they know that 1 goal they got was a fluke they can’t duplicate, meanwhile the Undertaker buries their chances and throws them headlong into the grave.
What, he’s so big he’s plural?
Heh, Gagner took Franzen into the boards and kept him there. Things I never thought I’d see, #932.
Wings still smart – realize refs have put whistles away and play accordingly. Zebras continue to be inconsistant
Lack of scoring on the powerplay haunting us again.
Smid v. Datsyuk
Smid prevails.
‘gonna miss that guy.
Taylor Hall is the cordless power drill that never loses its charge.
Hall showing why he’s Copper ‘n Blue’s Top player under 25 for the Edmonton Oilers tonight.
That’s an awful awful call.
No, it didn’t
No way Smid is traded. No way!
FFS no way wings deserved 5 pps tonight
Oilers toying with the wings, like baby lions play with those little deer their lion mother catches for them.
Oh great, another Oilers penalty. 3 in a row? par for the course?
WTF are we in Detroit? What’s all that cheering?
Ah… nm. I get it. Good job, Petry.
Mike Brown – great fucking acquistion Tamby.
it was chintzy but legit.
Petry……… WHY!?
Petry, with an assist to the zebras.
Bettman was a basketball guy. Refs well trained to call the score and the standings.
Hmmm… so how much of the last 5 minutes can Krueger keep Hall on the ice?
Reply showed the stick was a good six inches away from his face.
brutal.
dammit petry.
khildahl,
you don’t need to hit the face for high sticking.
The dreaded 2 goal lead strikes again.
Yeah, but his face whipped back. How could it do that if the stick didn’t hit it?
Tom Poti is American.
Petry is American.
Edmonton hates America.
The rule is ‘contact above the height of the shoulders’. Considering the face and head are the only thing up there, yeah, it kind of does have to hit there.
while we are at conspiracy theories .. isn’t Petry from Detroit?
F off, that’s not icing.
I hope this makes it to OT, or else I’m going to look like a total…
We could still get 2 points so pissing away the extra point against Det is no big deal its not like we are competing with them for the final playoff spot or anythi….. aww fuck
officiating is a joke. again.
khildahl,
face isn’t head.
Det runs an amazing amount of interference.
gogliano,
If it’s tying, own goal. It definitely wasn’t a penalty. See: Oilers
Somebody told the Oilers about the transition game; it’s replaced the crying game. Not sure whose penis it is.
I’m not sure that’s relevant as Brown’s stick was in front of the guy’s face, therefore clearly not touching any part of his head.
Oh well. It was a given it was going to happen at some point.
Gagner made a nice block there.
It feels like Pajaarvi’s going to score the winner. If it goes to the shootout, put him in.
(You know what stat tells me to do that? Fucking intuition, that’s what stat.)
The girlfriend just asked why MacTavish was behind the Red Wings bench.
I told her it was Renney and they hired him after they saw his beard.
Fk oilers deserved the full 2 poits IMO. 2 early casual PPs hurt
this is terrible.
Well, I counted 31 missed calls on the Wings, 19 on the Oilers.
Average from what I’ve seen in games is around 10 for one team and + or – 5 for another.
Bring back tie games.
2-2 leave it at that.
I’d put Smid in the shootout queue.
hunter1909,
I’ve got a friend who refers to the hockey game, followed by the mini-hockey-game, followed by the skills competition. He’s going to be a great old man.
Wings animated Oilers looking at the score/clock lmao as if they’re already beaten.
A highly interesting stat comparison would be comparing 4 on 4 OT to 5 on 5 regular, probably it’s already being done wtf do I know.
Candy assed play, players scared of the shitehead refs.
Icing in OT! Wusses!
Bah.
Man. Filthy Russian.
I wonder but I’m pretty sure there are a few Lowetide posters who think that’s a fine idea.
Fuck you too, refs.
see: Oilers
well what the fuck was that
Petry has got to be very disappointed tonight.
just a brutal game for him.
I love how Gagner pasted Franzen on the game winning goal. And by pasted I mean ghosted. Good times.
Wings dominated the Oilers in the third period on, but they need to buy the refs dinner, and the Oilers need a smoke; they got fucked.
That’s a rough two plays for Petry.
PPs in the third…DET 3, OIL 0…sounds ’bout right
Jagr… damn his eyes!!!
Fuck you Petry.
I can’t believe how pathetic this team is with a lead. There was never a doubt this was an OT loss from the first shift of the 3rd. This club is a joke. Wake me in 2016.
Petry playing to his contract.
Well.. Oilers lost a game they needed to win to drive for playoffs. Still not “out of it”, but man. Oilers had chances galore to end this one before the third period even began. Inept and predictable powerplay and too many “almosts”.
FS. Zebras brought the wings back into this one. Oilers stopped skating, going to the net, and girecheck in the 3rd. Petry way to casual with Datsyuk. Needed to be tighter to him at the blue line.
Always thought DD could get away with taller shoulder pads. Still wouldn’t have stopped that snipe though.
Also, someone needs to send the refs a copy of 60.2 in the rule book.
Dennis King @DKingBH
Final chances: 18-11; 1-3 ST
You can hang this one on the officials. I have said it all along. One sided officiating is bench poison. You feel like you can’t play with any intensity because you will get pinned with a nothing call. It’s like playing through quicksand. Garbage.
Oilers didn’t deserve to win this game. They played 2 good periods then tried to protect the lead instead of playing their game.
We’ve seen this time and time again.
and Calgary won.
dammit.
I think Babcock outcoached Krueger badly, especially in the third period. Krueger had a nice game going but all of the moves he made in the third backfired on him. The top 3 lines were terrific through 2, I just don’t get tightening so early and going into a prevent defense.
Petry had a tough game, sure. But Krueger had a tougher one.
You can’t blame the refs.Last time I looked we led the NHL in penalty minutes.
That’s partly poor players but it’s also coaching.Well coached teams don’t take penalties in offensive zone and have players leave their feet on the check which is an easy call for ref.
The oiler management doesn’t think we play tough enough so players try to respond.
We wore out our PK as per usual.
a couple of times I saw Babcock let the fourth lines play each other just long enough for the puck to get deep into the EDM zone and then suddenly you’d see TooToo or someone else peel off and Hey! there’s 13 against 13!! yea
besides… what this team needs is a good losing streak to finally, hopefully, kill off the dead weight… win too much and you’re stuck with KL and ST…
ahh hell, we’re stuck with them regardless. crap.
Seth Jones?
Oilers 4×4 strategy…Wait for line change, pass up and gain center, corner dump, change lines. REPEAT.
Why was Eager, I mean Brown on the ice with 6 left to go up 1?
40 really good minutes flushed by thinking that by some miracle we would tonight find a way to play effective defensive hockey. Haven’t been able to count on locking down a tight lead since Peca Pronger and Roli skipped town.
Bedshittin for Nikishkin.
Agree 100 percent. Taylor Hall questioned why they sat back in his post game interview. Ralph was playing like he didn’t trust his team and was scared to lose. From Management down to coaching this organization is futile. Hall, Gagner, Horcoff and Magnus were all great tonight.
The D were just throwing it off the glass in the third and therefore we couldn’t get anything going.
Ralph is quick to tell us the Oilers lost because the players did not play to his system. Is he going to own this tonight and tell us his coaching was horseshit?
Nonetheless… it’s rejuvenating, in a very small sense to be watching a game that means something (in a very small sense) again. Player development is the throne of kings, but competing is the meat of the masses. We have the prime cuts. Time to feast. Smarten up Katz.
Jonathan Willis@JonathanWillis
‘Which is why I benched Yakupov for Brown for a while there in the third.’ RT @JasonGregor: “Our mandate is never to sit back.” Krueger
I call bullshit Krewgs. You tried to shut the Wings down in the 3rd instead of what was working in the 1st and 2nd. C’mon Ralph, take responsibility for your own poor coaching decisions.
The Oilers played a pretty decent game. They should be happy getting the point.
delooper,
No, they shouldn’t. They went into the 3rd with a two goal lead!!! Horrible.. Price of a rookie head coach in a shortened season.. ouch.
Why do you hate hockey so much?
I agree and I am glad they lost because of it. It’s called ‘learning your lesson’. One thing I HATED about MacT as coach is his constant discussions about how making a mistake cost them the game. Players frequently said they were scared to make a mistake. I am pretty sure that about every third word out of MacT’s mouth in the last 3 years of his coaching was ‘mistake’.
It’s a mistake to worry too much about trying to be perfect because perfect isn’t possible. Play your game and make the other guys make ‘mistakes’.
Dennis King absolutely crucifying Krewgs on twitter.
Can Tambi hire another coach? After letting 3 go already and hiring a rookie?
we wait…
I hate to count them out, but barring a miracle the season is over.
So let me share with you my plan for next year. Keeping in mind my plan isn’t the one Tambo settled on.
Katz
MacTavish-Howson Tambo gonzo
Lindy Ruff Too good of a coach to pass on. I like Krueger, but he has to match lines. So keep him as assistant
Hall Nuge Ebs The team pure and simple
Paajarvi gagner Yakupov 1a. Should be good enough to tread water
Penner Barkov Andy MacDonald Big scoring line
Smyth Lander Hartikainen Defensive specialist line. should pop a couple as as result of hard work
Brown Modern day enforcer type. Can play a little.
Gardiner Schultz Jr. mirror youth movement of forward line one
Petry Visnovski stud second line able to move the puck
Smid Schultz Sr. shutdown pairing
Fistric The muscle
Jimmy Howard (Number one til Fuhr 2.0 arrives)
Dubnyk- 1A
Deadline/ off season Departures (traded though, I want value)
Hemsky
Jones
Horcoff
Belanger
Petrell
Plante
Teubert
Vande Velde
Whitney
Potter
Peckham
*Note: Roster is only built with UFA’s and first rounder. Potential a useful player could be found in one of the above deals.
Thinker,
Have you been watching much hockey the last few years? You want to flush Horcoff and add another 19 year old center? That is a lottery team right there. This team needs more NHL players not less.
To this day, watching Chelios and Schneider run picks during the ’06 playoffs will spike my blood pressure to unhealthy levels.
Getting outcoached by Babcock is nothing new… but the outcry is kinda new… Renney was putting his troops in terrible situations pretty regularly. the outcries were fairly subdued… and fair enough, so were the expectations of Renney’s roster. Regardless, armchair critic and all such that I am, it’s fair from my standpoint to say that if you want to lay losses at a coaches foot, use the term coaching, and not the name Krueger… because in terms of what youre attacking right now, hasnt changed much from last season.
Hockey sense tells me what these men have been doing is wrong.
Common sense tells me I don’t understand certain nuances of coaching such direction.
Fact tells me that nobody in the oilers front office have proven any ability to recognize and employ any such strategy. So… back to Krueger. Isn’t he an assistant coach for Chicago now? Let’s blame him!
Encouraging article about Smid
http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/03/15/ladislav-smid-set-to-become-ufa-wants-to-remain-an-oiler
I think Mike nails in his post.
http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/03/16/game-notes-oilerswings-mar-15/
There’s an outcry now because if they play the way they did in the first 2, they probably win.
RK didn’t give them that option by getting his two worst possession players out more than everyone else.
He also didn’t put 10″s line out against Datsyuk once in the 3rd.
Being killed in match ups at home is inexcusable for a NHL head coach.
Agreed on Parkatti’s article. One of the best I’ve read in years. Datsyuk is so much better then every other Wing I’d employ almost a Tikkannen strategy against him…a basketball box-and-one. To have Horcoff/Hall/Hemsky play zero shifts against him in the 3rd is crazy.
(Krueger looking at shift charts after 2nd)
Dammit! Babcock keeps putting Datsyuk out against Gagner.
(Bucky)
Ralph, you got an 18 year old Ruskie on that line. He can’t handle that matchup.
(Both scratch chins working toward a solution)
Can’t get Renney to convince Mike to match Datsyuk with Hall can we? (Guffaws and snorts). Lets put Brownie up there to add a veteran presence.
A few randoms:
1. They are so close to figuring out this three scoring lines thing. They are out shooting and out chancing and have become tougher to match up against. You just know that the “lesson learned” is that more grit or experience is needed in the top 9 and 56 will be out for 28/13 or even 20. 64 might be out too at which point we’ve gone fully loco.
2. Ralph quoted as saying Fistric was ready to go but he didn’t want to mess with a lineup that just won. I fucking hate this line of thinking. This isn’t witchcraft. Why don’t you evaluate each players performance and make personnel decisions based on that? Cause Taylor Hall went supernova Corey Potter gets to play every night. 56/37/20/28/13/94 should be fighting every day in practice to get in or stay in the lineup. Same with 45/44/24/6.
3. When you are a terrible team having a player that creates nothing but gives up nothing is a plus. Because you are terrible, by nature your other players are giving up far more than they are creating. However, if you want to be a good team you can’t employ players who’s only purpose is to remove 10 minutes from the clock against easy opposition. The best case scenario with 37 is that 10 minutes will pass with nothing bad happening. If you had a team of 37′s you’d never win a game. You might lose a few 0-0 games in the shootout but you’d never win. Now if 37 can make the jump to being an elite shutdown player who can delete Datsyuk then that adds some value but I see no signs of that.
Really? That’s a firing offense right there. Wasn’t that impressed with Zetterberg last night. Datsyuk was always going to be the guy they needed to check. We’ve hadto suffer through how many rookie players, now we have to suffer through a rookie head coach? Dpesn’t help that Renney was whispering in Babcocks ear all night: This is who’s coming next. Dammit this franchise needed Hitchcock
I’ll repeat my broken record:
Chances are closer to 20% right now by the 50/50 method. Weighting has its advantages but the sample is still on the small side. The preferable method is up for debate, though, and we are getting closer to a large enough sample for the weighting method (I prefer the 40 game mark).
But 56 points is the guarantee mark for a playoff spot. Using the weighting method, SPS has these odds at the point marks:
56 – 99.6%;
55 – 97.0%;
54 – 87.1%;
53 – 64.3%;
52 – 34.6%;
51 – ~12%.