SAIL ON, HC LIBEREC?

The Edmonton Oilers approach the deadline much like George Costanza approached his job at Vandelay Industries: they are importer/exporters.

Michigan Live has a story up  about the Red Wings’ interest in Smid, and one of the passages is very interesting:

  • Why the Red Wings might be interested in him: They are interested in him. He is one of the players they have been scouting. He would strengthen their top-four and bring some of the gritty qualities they lost when Brad Stuart left for San Jose. The Red Wings have nine defensemen, but they aren’t sure how long Kyle Quincey (fractured cheek bone) will be out or if Carlo Colaiacovo, out since Jan. 21 with a shoulder injury, can return and secure a spot in the lineup. The Oilers are hoping to re-sign Smid.

The other interesting item is the cost projection (Second-round pick and/or second-tier prospect) for the player. If you look at this from Detroit’s point of view, it is a brilliant move. They acquire Smid for a pick that (as of today) is in the 50-55 range in the 2013 entry draft. The Oilers already have an extra second rounder from the Cogliano deal, so they own (as of today) picks #11, #41, #53 and could grab #59 from Detroit from Smid (apparently).

Smid has value, and I do believe the Oilers should sign him. However, when you’re looking for a way to shoehorn all these contracts into the future, Smid is the exact player type who is going to get crushed in terms of salary. The Oilers have several off-season priorities this summer:

  • Sign RFA”s Gagner, Paajarvi, Hartikainen, make a decision on RFA Peckham
  • Sign Nuge to the Hall contract
  • Make decisions on UFA’s Smid, Jones, Fistric, Petrell, Whitney and Khabibulin
  • add a backup goaltender
  • find a top 4D, lefty to go with Nick Schultz and Oscar Klefbom
  • find a top 6D, righty to go with Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry
  • offload contracts of Eager, Belanger and possibly Ryan Smyth

Dealing Smid for a 2nd rd pick suggests Edmonton would like to add a ‘more complete’ LH defender to their top 4–someone like Mark Streit perhaps–who could pair with Petry on the #1 set with the Schultz’s being the second pairing. The club might bring in a veteran hand to play with Klefbom on the third pairing and run with Fistric, Peckham or Potter as the 7th man.

Hey, the Oilers could sign Smid tomorrow for all I know. However, we’re getting the ‘smoke’ now that often leads to ‘fire’ and unless the Oilers are playing a dangerous game of chicken with #5 (attempting to get his signature on a reduced deal with the threat of trade) it looks like we’re dealing with a deadline that includes at least one major export.

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141 Responses to "SAIL ON, HC LIBEREC?"

  1. WeridAl says:

    LT your way of the mark on value of Smid, if Oduya got a 2nd+3rd, you would think Smid would be worth a heck of a lot more. Besides there is not much in the Wings system the Oilers would be interested in. Couple other teams would pay a lot more for Smid’s services.

  2. DawnM says:

    At this point of the rebuild, we better not still be sellers. It’s time to be filling in the gaps, not creating more to stockpile draft picks. The only way I could conceivably be satisfied with trading away Smid or any other player would be if the return was another flesh and blood body that would address a need on the team right now, not 3 or 4 years from now.

  3. 42 percent body fat says:

    sign nuge to hall contract is absolutely stupid. We rushed on Eberle and could have saved money, and now may lose Gagner because of it. We need stop and think instead of jumping in the deep end.

    If we gave eberle 2 years last year at 5M and gagner 5 years at 4.1 we would be laughing.

    And I am quoted on saying we should do his last year.

    Nuge will be good, but he hasnt earned 6M yet.

  4. humantorch says:

    If the Oilers short-change Smid on a contract after spending lord knows how much money for Tambellini’s goons to play in the NHL, someone sure as shit better storm Kingsway with torches and pitchforks.

  5. 42 percent body fat says:

    And because of these stupid contracts we have to trade smid and sign streit instead of trading potter and signing streit.

    This does not solve our defense woes

  6. stevezie says:

    Kyle Quincy was worth a first, of course he was an RFA.

    It just doesn’t make sense to me to say “we’ll sign someone to replace Smid” when A) we don’t have a history of being able to attract the guy we want, and 2: There aren’t a lot of D available this summer anyway.

  7. DBO says:

    If they get Smid on a 5 yr at around $3.75, get Whitney (gonna happen people so start accepting it) for 2 yrs at around $2.5 mill, and Fistric for the 6/7 spot at around $1.5 mill, then 3 RD is needed for next year. And Klefbom then gets one year in the AHL, Shultz is moved at the deadline next year or even in the summer this year (especially since he has dropped off, and given the choice of 1 stay at home type I hope they pick Smid).

    So 3 RD and 2/3 LW with size/grit (also going to happen, too much chatter about need for size). i mentioned it before, but I hope Harsky is our 12/13th forward and they bring in a 1 or 2 year player to fill that spot with Nuge and Eberle. And please flush Belanger somehow. Rather see Lander or someone else get that spot. He is the blackhole, and he does not look to be a happy dude playing here (just from body language and interviews)

  8. WeridAl says:

    DBO:
    If they get Smid on a 5 yr at around $3.75, get Whitney (gonna happen people so start accepting it) for 2 yrs at around $2.5 mill, and Fistric for the 6/7 spot at around $1.5 mill, then 3 RD is needed for next year. And Klefbom then gets one year in the AHL, Shultz is moved at the deadline next year or even in the summer this year (especially since he has dropped off, and given the choice of 1 stay at home type I hope they pick Smid).

    So 3 RD and 2/3 LW with size/grit (also going to happen, too much chatter about need for size). i mentioned it before, but I hope Harsky is our 12/13th forward and they bring in a 1 or 2 year player to fill that spot with Nuge and Eberle. And please flush Belanger somehow. Rather see Lander or someone else get that spot. He is the blackhole, and he does not look to be a happy dude playing here (just from body language and interviews)

    Smid should get a contract in the 4-4.5M range. Signing Whitney just hurts the team, and the development of the Oiler prospects, like Kelfbom, Musil, and Marincin. The Oilers can not afford to sign Fistric, he’ll be looking for a 3-4yr contract around the 2M+, and he’ll get it from another team.

  9. FrankenOil says:

    I don’t see the need to sign RNH this summer. His offensive struggles give the Oilers a legitimate “wait-and-see” opportunity. Make him play out the contract. Worst/best-case scenario, he leads the team in scoring next year and signs for similar money to Hall and Ebs. If he doesn’t rebound offensively, the Oilers can try and force him to sign a Duchene type contract (2yrs/7Mil).

  10. gcw_rocks says:

    If the oilers trade Smid for a second round pick I hope Katz fires every single person in management the next day. (I hope for that anyway). That would be seriously undervaluing an asset.

  11. sliderule says:

    They will resign Gagner MPS and Hartikainen trade Peckham at deadline
    Nuge hasn’t shown he is worth Hall money .they will wait till next year on extension amount
    Smid Fistric will be resigned.Whitney if he keeps playing better maybe.Jones Petrell and Habi gone
    Good luck with adding backup goaltender or a top four D with this sitting on hands mgmt team.
    They will add a six D but they will say he is top four .It will just work out he is six.
    They will buyout Eager and try to off load Belanger and Smyth with no such luck.So we get another year with Belanger triangle and Smittys wrap arounds and floating slappers.
    We will draft Lazar or Monahan

  12. Woodguy says:

    However, we’re getting the ‘smoke’ now that often leads to ‘fire’ and unless the Oilers are playing a dangerous game of chicken with #5 (attempting to get his signature on a reduced deal with the threat of trade) it looks like we’re dealing with a deadline that includes at least one major export.

    They should play chicken.

    They have leverage and should use it.

    We bemoan their stupidity when they don’t use their leverage and sign players like Sutton, Eager etc for too much money and too much term.

    Same applies too good players as well.

    Smid has made it clear that he wants to be here.

    The Oilers need to pay offensive kids soon and cannot afford overpays in the D.

    Elite D who bring Smid’s level of offense rarely sign for more than $3.5MM – Orpik being the outlier at $3.75.

    Many sign for $3-$3.5 with a lot of them around the $3.25 level.

    Smid can probably do better on the open market this summer since D are in short supply.

    The Oilers have leverage and should use it.

  13. Woodguy says:

    Also,

    Smid re-signs for sure now that LT has posted a pre-mature “Sail-on” post.

    Book it!

  14. Woodguy says:

    Points percentage standings as of this morning:

    CHICAGO 0.875
    ANAHEIM 0.815
    ST LOUIS 0.607
    LOS ANGELES 0.593
    MINNESOTA 0.593
    VANCOUVER 0.593
    DETROIT 0.569
    SAN JOSE 0.556
    ———————————-
    PHOENIX 0.536
    DALLAS 0.500
    CALGARY 0.500
    EDMONTON 0.500
    COLUMBUS 0.483
    NASHVILLE 0.483
    COLORADO 0.444

    Pretty big drop from 9th to the 3 teams ties for 10th.

    Unless DAL, CAL, or EDM get hot (or EDM remains hot with them getting 7 of 8 points in last 4 games), I don’t see those teams really threatening.

  15. Hammers says:

    Offer Smid a 5 year deal at $17mill . Gives him stability and a shot at Stanley .Kid needs stroking by Tambellini .

  16. admiralmark says:

    If Smid will sign for under $4 Mill/yr..then its a deal that should be made. If his value is in the $4.5+ Mill Range? Then surely he is worth more then a 2nd rounder? Detroit might like to get him for a 2nd… But even this management group is not that daft.

  17. OilClog says:

    Trading 27yr old Smid, replacing him with 35yr old Streit… How does this help us?

    How does trading Smid make one horse hair of sense? Detroit thinks he would fill out their top4 nicely, and here we are thinking about trading him… Will this madness never end?! I want to see the Oilers as a real hockey team, not view them as MLB’s Athletics.. Wait atleast they make the playoffs somehow.. Fuck.

  18. striatic says:

    Whitney, Khabibulin and Jones alone will save the team 8m if they are let go or traded for prospects and picks.

    2.25 of that needs to go to Nuge, if you want him on the Hall contract.

    2.75 goes to Gagner, if you want him on the Hall contract too.

    That leaves 3 million.

    2 of that goes to Smid to get him to 4.

    That leaves 1 million which goes to re-sign Magnus to put him around 2 million.

    Which still leaves the 20.8 million in projected cap space the team already has.

    With that 20.8 million or so you need to reserve 6 for Bouwmeester summer 2014 and 3 to get J. Schultz up to the Hall contract.

    Reserve 6 million to put Yakupov on the Hall contract in summer 2015.

    That leaves 5 million in operational cap space in 2015, assuming the cap doesn’t go up and assuming ALL the kids get Hall money.

    I think the Oilers will be fine laying out money to Smid. It’d be great if they got him for 3.5 by giving him term. The trick is 2014, signing Bouwmeester to play with J. Schultz on the top pairing and moving Smid/Petry to pairing 2.

    Realistically at least one – probably two of Yak, Huge, Gagner, Schultz won’t get the full 6m “Hall Contract”, saving something like 2 to 3 million.

    Does this seem close to what might be the plan?

  19. FrankenOil says:

    Am I the only one who can’t believe the Oilers are 4 points out of 1st in the NW? 3 games vs the Canucks, 3 vs the Flames, 2 vs Minnesota and 1 left vs Colorado. The Oilers are looking at having a chance at the division crown.

  20. justDOit says:

    Woodguy:
    Also,

    Smid re-signs for sure now that LT has posted a pre-mature “Sail-on” post.

    Book it!

    Those words make me feel a little better, but I’m still haunted by the thought of White and a 3rd coming back from Detroit for Smid.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Why the Red Wings might be interested in him: They are interested in him.”

    This is the kind of tautological simplicity modern journalism could use a lot more of.

  22. striatic says:

    FrankenOil: Am I the only one who can’t believe the Oilers are 4 points out of 1st in the NW? 3 games vs the Canucks, 3 vs the Flames, 2 vs Minnesota and 1 left vs Colorado. The Oilers are looking at having a chance at the division crown.

    i can believe they are 4 points out of 1st in division.

    i don’t believe they have any shot at taking it.

  23. Woodguy says:

    All,

    VIc’s Head to Head TOI app is working!!

    Yay!!

    http://timeonice.com/H2H1213.html?GameNumber=20421&submit=Go

    That’s last night’s game.

    Just plug the NHL game number into the “20421″ area and the game head to head toi will come up.

    The single game corsi/fenwick and shift charts were working last week., and now this is too.

    Thanks Vic!

  24. Lucinius says:

    As I’ve said before (along with others); trading Smid unless he’s asking for north of 4 million a year is sheer and utter stupidity and atrocious asset management. I’m not using advanced stats or anything, but to me, I see Smid as the single best defenseman we have in our own end. He makes some mistakes and can fall into putting it off the boards at the wrong times, but who doesn’t? He’s our best shot blocker (as a goalie; shot blockers make your life easier, even when the odd one goes in because of them), a good pker, has pretty good speed for a defensive defenseman, is a decent passer, can turn quickly, has a mean streak (don’t get in his goalie’s crease, and don’t you dare push him away from it!), and seems to be a respected leader in the room.

    And he wants to stay.

    Sure he has marginal offensive upside (though I think his offensive potential is under-rated given how he tends to defer to his partners and lets them pinch; when he pinches and goes in deep he shows a good amount of skill and sense).

    Trading Smid for picks is what the teams like the Islanders and Columbus the past few years would do.

  25. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    This is my thinking as well. The Oilers want to scare Smid a bit. He wants to stay. Let him sweat some and then eventually sign him to a good deal.

  26. Woodguy says:

    When you look at Smid’s Shot Attempt differential this year and last year they are very similar.

    9 of 15 players are better with him than without him.

    HIs most common d partners last year (Petry/Gilbert) were both significantly better with him (also speaks to the drop off in LHD on the team after Smid)

    Petry is better with him this year as well, but the vast majority of the time is together so the apart is only 108min for Petry where as they are together for 300min

    Some of the “worse with him” are very slight and can be looked at as “even”

    He’s good in that way.

    Given his offense I don’t think you can give him more than $3.5MM though.

    Given you have leverage from his desire to stay I bet you can get him for $3.25MM/yr. and give him some term to compensate.

    $16.25 over 5 years.

    That would be a good contract.

    Very similar to many other good NHL D who bring next to no offense.

  27. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    post removed by user

  28. Woodguy says:

    Smid’s been linked to PIT in some Eastern media.

    PIT is loaded with LH D prospects who can pass the puck:

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1379

  29. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    42 percent body fat,

    Hopkins is going to be the slowest to approximate an NHL frame and that stick already comes out from the boards with the puck more than his share.

    Hopkins passing Ebs is more predictable than wherever Gagner’s level of play will settle. Waiting to buy years from Nuge at a higher price is an even bigger mistake than last year with Gagner

  30. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    WeridAl,

    Rumors originating with the buyer’s fans or media esp. rightsholders are always going to float a low price. A 2nd or a player with an equal chance of being an NHL player is an underpay.

    The rumor I’m starting says someone wants to offer the same sort of return as we got for Penner. They’s do better than the Kings did.

    Still think Smid signs at least 24 hour before the deadline.

  31. ScottieA says:

    Trading Smid, one of your most competent defenders, for picks when you still have gaping holes in your defence should be a fireable offence for Tambellini. And so the clown show in management continues…

  32. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    FrankenOil,

    If Detroit and San Jose hang tough, 8th spot in points just might give the Oilers a bye in round 1.

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Sight reading inspired a hilarious memory.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberace_Museum

    Visited this bizarre place in 2000. Now it is apparently closed. I guess they won’t be sponsoring a hockey team any time soon.

  34. Ribs says:

    As with Hemsky last season – If Detroit wants him, he’s probably a guy you should hang on to.

  35. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Ribs,

    Speaking of young players to hang onto:

    6 goals: 4, 64, 91

  36. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Sight reading inspired a hilarious memory.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberace_Museum

    Visited this bizarre place in 2000. Now it is apparently closed. I guess they won’t be sponsoring a hockey team any time soon.

    He opened a museum in honor of himself? In 1979? I can’t decide if that’s as creepy as it is impressive, or the other way around…

  37. Lois Lowe says:

    Smid’s uneven development is exactly the reason the Oilers can’t deal Smid. Replacing a guy who has *finally* arrived as an NHL player with picks, prospects or magic beans does not help this team in the short or long term future.

  38. 106 and 106 says:

    From USA Today’s list of Sign or Trade? Upcoming Free – Agents:

    6. Ladislav Smid (Edmonton Oilers), sign him: He’s not a star defenseman, but he has 436 games of NHL experience and he understands his strengths and limitations. He’s 6-3, 225. For the Oilers to become a playoff team, they will need a defenseman or two like Smid. If they trade Smid, 27, it won’t be easy to replace him.

    There’s no step forward for this d-core without keeping guys like this.

  39. ScottieA says:

    106 and 106,

    Mail that clip to the Kingsway offices…

  40. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    How can the Oilers possibly have leverage in a market where teams are STARVING for help on the back end.

    Smid is about to become a UFA at the ripe age of 27.

    James Wisniewsski was a UFA two years ago and he is making 7 million dollars this year.
    ( 5.5 million / year over the life of the contract )

    Please explain how the team has the ‘leverage’ in this case?

  41. denny33 says:

    OilClog,

    No kidding. Hard to believe we are at this point…

    I mean if they re-sign him shortly okay – but each day we get closer to UFA – his agent keeps whispering please just let us take a look at what other teams are offering.

    Raverns Linebacker – Ellerbe was all set to resign with the Super Bowl Ravens – when he and his agent were FLOORED at what Miami offered.

  42. loosemoose says:

    A second round pick for a guy they want to round out the top four?

    I fucking hate Detroit……..

  43. denny33 says:

    jonrmcleod,

    How, exactly, do you ‘scare’ a soon to be 27 year-old UFA 1st paring defenceman in the NHL ?

  44. steveb12344 says:

    denny33: Woodguy, How can the Oilers possibly have leverage in a market where teams are STARVING for help on the back end. Smid is about to become a UFA at the ripe age of 27.James Wisniewsski was a UFA two years ago and he is making 7 million dollars this year.( 5.5 million / year over the life of the contract )Please explain how the team has the ‘leverage’ in this case?

    2 years ago Wiz was getting $3.25 as a 30 point scorer. He put up 51 points that year and got rewarded with his big contract.(which he has not been even close to living up to.)

    Smid had 15 points last year. He is in no way comparable to Wiz.

  45. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: All,VIc’s Head to Head TOI app is working!!
    Yay!!
    http://timeonice.com/H2H1213.html?GameNumber=20421&submit=Go
    That’s last night’s game.
    Just plug the NHL game number into the “20421″ area and the game head to head toi will come up.
    The single game corsi/fenwick and shift charts were working last week., and now this is too.
    Thanks Vic!

    Best stats news of the season. All hail Latka Gravas! Thanks for the update, WG.

  46. asiaoil says:

    Suffered through this guy’s growing pains, turned into a legit top 4 guy, wants to be here, married a local girl. This deal gets done unless mgmt is totally brain-dead (a possibility) since Smid sees the team’s potential. He’s Chris Phillips and somewhere around $3.5 – $4.0 mil is the deal depending on term. Pure defense first guys just don’t make more except for a couple like Volchenkov. Plus I look forward to another 5 years of LT trading the guy every year :)

  47. spoiler says:

    The issue for all GMs is the declining cap next year. Agents want their players to be paid like it’s a one-off. They don’t want to see any deflation in the labour market despite the fact it MUST happen, if only for one year.

    I would discuss this with Ladi’s agent…”Look we can give you a deal with nice term based on the coming cap ceiling, or if you prefer, a one year deal and we promise to offer an extension with term, bearing an increase equivalent to the increase in the ceiling next year…. Sound fair?”

    If they end up trading Smid, I expect Tambi to get raped like a Cypriot* Account-holder.

    *Coming soon to a Club Med bank near you!

  48. Genjutsu says:

    Lois Lowe,

    Long term it might help as it would surely mean another trip to the basement and the draft pool is a silly deep one.

    As deep as this draft year is, the demand for a Smid will be insane. There are no comparables to be had. For a shutdown guy, PK ace, hitter and shot blocker. There just is no one else out there with his skills.

    You can play him against the toughs and not get killed.

    This is exactly what every team needs and these skills are at real premium come the second season.

    There may be a offer too good to refuse.

  49. stevezie says:

    denny33:
    jonrmcleod,

    How, exactly,do you ‘scare’ a soon to be 27 year-old UFA 1st paring defenceman in the NHL ?

    Well, since you’re not describing Smid, the question is moot.

    And weirdal, Smid is not getting 4.5. The only way he is a “first pairing” guy is if you ignore his career before and after last season and squint really hard to see past his limitations.

    I like Smid, but he is not Langway or even Regher. He is like… Scuderi. Good for him! We need that! But Scuderi makes 3.4. Let’s say draft pedigree and NHL experience balances out only one strong season, and the new CBA balances out inflation.

    If he hits UFA he might get four, but only from someone desperate. Does he want to play for a desperate team in a desperate city?

  50. stevezie says:

    Hammers:
    Offer Smid a 5 year deal at $17mill . Gives him stability and a shot at Stanley .Kid needs stroking by Tambellini .

    Claiming the “kid clearly needed it!” is not an acceptable defence for stroking one, nor should it be.

  51. misfit says:

    Smid will be signed on, or before, the deadline. I’m fairly confident in that. The real question is how much Tambellini overpays him.

    Just this past offseson, Philly re-signed a recently aquired 27 year old UFA DFD in Nik Grossman for $3.5M per season. To me, that’s the benchmark for Smid. If we sign him for less, then Tambellini did well. Anything more and he overpaid. We need him, and he wants to be here. I just don’t see it not getting done unless one side gets stupid during negotiations.

  52. Jordan says:

    Huh – who’d have thought that not signing a developing defenceman to a contract beyond 2 years that happens to end the year he becomes an UFA would come back to bite the organization in the ass?

    How much do you want to bet that Smid and co would have jumped on a 5-6 year deal at 3M a year and a half ago when his last deal was inked?

    How good would that look now?

    Signing Smid to anything less than 4 years is a failure by management to identify and retain talent. Signing him to anything more than 4M per is a failure to manage the cap and project player salary demands.

    The ONLY plus in all of this is the possibility that Smid could be traded for additional assets, and then re-singed in the summer. Of course there are obvious problems with that plan (souring the kids on the org, pissing the fans off by selling off assets when you could still try to make a run, the player choosing not to return, etc…) but at least it’s something.

    If you’ll excuse me I need to go beat a lightbulb around in the basement to distract me from the incompetence / cone of silence that defines this team’s management group.

  53. TheOtherJohn says:

    Find I rarely disagree with Woodguy but on Smid I do. I would not try to play hardball with the guy. He is 4 months away from signing whereever he wants.

    The handling of Smid is a litmus test on the intelligence of our management group. He is a top 4 D man that is capable of playing 20-22 minutes a game against tough opponents. He is exactly the type of player we will need to compete 4 series deep in the NHL playoffs. This is a no brainer, which is why it is alitmus test. Oiler management is too stupid to identify their core, allocate sufficient money to that group and sign value contracts elsewhere on their roster.

    With that said, I expect the Oilers will trade him at the deadline. Gee detroit wants him? stupid organization. Oilers will tell everyone he wanted too much money for defensive D and spend the next 5 years trying to replace his skillset. I have posted before that the Wings signed Brad Stuart to a 4 year 3.75m deal and that is precisely what we should be doing with Smid with a ceiling of $20m over 5 years.

    If the Oilers did not overpay everyone at the bottom of their roster (Khabby, Sutton, Peckham, Eager, Belanger Jones, Smyth) they would have sufficient $$ to pay guys in their core. I include Smid in that group. Top 6 forwards, top 4 D and 1 goalie.

    A much much harder decision should be how to deal with Sam Gagner. He should not be paid like a top line forward. He is not a top 3 forward and to the extent that we pay him $5m or more we will have overpaid for his services and we would be precluded from trading him on anything but at a discounted value.. It should also now be evident to all that the Eberle signing appears to be an overpay both in terms of $$ and term. So to the extent we overpay Gagner and RNH we will be tying our hands moving forward.

    Salary cap management is an equal priority to filling out our NHL roster and the Oiler management group certainly clearly appears unequal to both tasks

  54. Gerta Rauss says:

    I think if they offer Smid term and a little security(NMC or NTC in the first 3 years of a 5 year deal) he’ll sign in the $3.5M range. We wait.

    They need to take advantage of Whitney’s improved play of late and move him at the deadline,not re-sign him. We’ve got enough candidates for 3rd pairing duty next year, keeping Whitney is not a good idea imo.

    The club might bring in a veteran hand to play with Klefbom on the third pairing and run with Fistric, Peckham or Potter as the 7th man

    I like Matt Greene for that role.Solid veteran on an expiring contract that PKs and brings some toughness to the lineup, and our LH D can rotate in and out of that 3LH spot while Greene anchors that 3rd pairing.

  55. jake70 says:

    Ahhh, that’s how you get leverage, have them hook up with and marry the local ladies. All local Edmonton readers with daughters in their early to mid-20s, start offering up your offspring…lol.

    The Smid thing happens a lot most likely, agents arguing that their player is the top D or F on the team is the same as that player being the man on any team, not the case. Suuban tried that, only Markov came back, started scoring a goal a game, the Habs were winning, all without Subban.

  56. Matt.N says:

    This can’t be looked at in black and white.

    Signing Smid = Good. Trading = Bad

    Questions that need to be asked.

    Can I get him on a value contract? I would suggest anything under 3.5 cap hit is value.

    Is there a deal that blows me away? If the Penguins step up with Simon Depres or Olli Maata you have to look really hard at that.

  57. BlacqueJacque says:

    Isn’t Mark Streit a bit weak on the defensive side?

    Also, given his age, shouldn’t his performance be ready to fall off a cliff right now?

    And a second round pick for Smid?!

    Not even Tambo is this stupid.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    jake70: All local Edmonton readers with daughters in their early to mid-20s, start offering up your offspring

    Target the high school graduating class, up to 2nd year university in the extremely rare chance there are any intellectuals on the current team and no, wearing glasses doesn’t quite qualify.

  59. Woodguy says:

    denny33:
    Woodguy,

    How can the Oilers possibly have leverage in a market where teams are STARVING for help on the back end.

    Smid is about to become a UFA at the ripeage of 27.

    James Wisniewsski was a UFA two years ago and he is making 7 million dollars this year.
    ( 5.5 million / year over the life of the contract )

    Please explain how the team has the ‘leverage’ in this case?

    Smid wants ro play here and has said as much.

    Smid just married an Edmonton girl.

    The Oilers are improving and more players would like to play here.

    All of that is leverage.

  60. stevezie says:

    denny33,

    Adding to what WG said, Wisniewski had conventional stats on his side and was signed by a desperte GM working for a desperate team whose fans were desperate to win.

    Of these four things Smid has maybe one going for him in Edmonton. GMs are old fashioned, they care about conventional stats (which in fairness do matter) and Smid’s aren’t just unimpressive, they are terrible.

  61. spoiler says:

    Matt.N: This can’t be looked at in black and white. Signing Smid = Good. Trading = BadQuestions that need to be asked. Can I get him on a value contract? I would suggest anything under 3.5 cap hit is value.Is there a deal that blows me away? If the Penguins step up with Simon Depres or Olli Maata you have to look really hard at that.

    Maatta would really make me think twice. Same with Trouba. But both would still be the equivalent of turning the clock back 7 years and extending the rebuild.

  62. commonfan14 says:

    From ESPN Insider on the Oil:

    It was a loss that suggested that maybe the expectations for the Oilers this season were too high. Winding down a grueling nine-game road trip, Edmonton was blown out 6-0 on March 8 by a Predators team that had scored one goal or fewer in five of the previous six games.

    It was ugly, and the Oilers’ response was crucial. All they did next was become the first team all season to beat the Blackhawks in regulation at home, putting up six on Chicago.

    “Since Chicago, there’s been a different swagger in the group, a different belief,” Oilers coach Ralph Krueger said on Sunday during his postgame news conference.

    If the Oilers make the playoffs, that might be the season-defining game. They’ve got San Jose next on Wednesday and their win over the Predators on Sunday pulled them to within just two points of the Sharks in the No. 8 spot.

    One NHL scout was surprisingly optimistic about Edmonton’s playoff chances simply because of their schedule. Edmonton has played 16 road games and just 10 home games this season. In the tight Western Conference, that remaining home-friendly schedule could be the difference.

    “They’re not bad, I think they’ve got a chance to make it,” he said. “If they play well at home. There’s such a logjam after Chicago and Anaheim. Any other team is going to have a chance to get in.”

    If the Oilers make the playoffs, it’s an indication that everything is on schedule in Steve Tambellini’s rebuild in Edmonton. If they don’t, it’s a sign that perhaps it’s not being run by the right group. But winning consistently is not the only big test for the rebuilding of the Oilers. There’s still roster construction that needs to be finalized.

    They are a team that has followed the Blackhawks’ and Penguins’ model of bottoming out, collecting high-end talent and turning that into a nucleus capable of contending for a Stanley Cup early on in their careers. But there are misconceptions about that approach.

    The biggest is that it only includes losing for a few years, drafting a few stars and turning the homegrown talent loose. The next steps after drafting young stars are every bit as important as landing the right players at the top of the draft. Those are the next steps the Oilers have to make sure they’re getting right.

    When Ray Shero took over as GM in Pittsburgh, after drafting Jordan Staal into a young group that already included Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Marc-Andre Fleury, his focus was making sure they were surrounded by guys who had the same drive to succeed.

    “The next step is to surround them with the similar type players that care,” Shero said, pointing out character guys who were in Pittsburgh at that time such as Colby Armstrong, Ryan Malone, Mark Eaton and Jarkko Ruutu. “Yeah, skill is important, but [just] as important is character.”

    In Chicago, players with a mix of skill and character surrounded stars Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith — guys such as Dave Bolland, Andrew Ladd, Troy Brouwer and Adam Burish.

    Florida GM Dale Tallon, who built the Blackhawks’ powerhouse, echoed this critical part of the process.

    “Surround [the stars] with the right core people so they won’t go backwards,” Tallon said last week. “Drafting well and making sure their character is impeccable and then getting the right people to train and mentor them — having them surrounded with the right core of athletes. Those are the pieces that you have to have.”

    Once that core group of high-end stars mixed with character is in place, experienced talent has to be added into the equation. It’s not reasonable to expect that the young stars will know how to win or be able to carry success over long stretches by themselves. You need an established star or two in the mix as well. The perfect solution in both Chicago and Pittsburgh was forward Marian Hossa.

    When Pittsburgh was ready to seriously compete, Shero traded a package that included young players from his core to get Hossa for a playoff run. It was a critical decision that led to a surprise trip to the Stanley Cup finals. Even though the Penguins didn’t sign him the following offseason — despite Shero’s best efforts — it was franchise-defining addition.

    The deal cost the Penguins Armstrong and Erik Christensen, two players who were expected to be a part of the Penguins’ long-term plans at the time. But Shero and owner Mario Lemieux decided that urgency to win was more important than hoarding youth.

    Shero has consistently been aggressive in the trade market in using organizational depth to address needs on his team, often on defense. He traded a 26-year-old Ryan Whitney for Chris Kunitz, a trade that continues to pay off. He traded a 25-year-old Alex Goligoski for James Neal, again a strong trade proving the value of young defensemen on the trade market. It wouldn’t be surprising if he spun one of his young defensemen like Simon Despres into another forward for his franchise this season.

    “Some teams have a surplus of forwards and are top heavy in terms of drafting forwards. We happen to be defense,” Shero said. “Those are assets for us. I know a team that likes our defense and they have forwards. That’s the way it works.”

    In the Oilers’ case, Tambellini is stockpiling talented forwards, and if the Oilers keep winning, this should be the year to aggressively use that organizational depth to add the needed help on defense for a playoff push. Tambellini needs to find his version of a Hossa deal.

    Then, this summer, ideally Edmonton takes a page out of Tallon’s playbook and is aggressive in free agency. Tallon didn’t just lose a bunch of games and then draft Kane, Toews and Keith. He traded for Patrick Sharp. And he spent big in free agency, luring guys such as  Brian Campbell, Hossa and Cristobal Huet to Chicago.

    It wasn’t cheap or easy, and in Huet’s case didn’t always work out, but the Blackhawks don’t win a Stanley Cup without Campbell and Hossa.

    “Sometimes when you’re starting up from the bottom you don’t have a lot in your core anyway. You have to add the right pieces,” Tallon said.

    This may be a challenge for Edmonton because of the dropping salary cap and lack of talent in free agency during recent summers. But a potential free agent such as David Clarkson would be a perfect fit on this team, and the time to make those big-money additions are while your young core players are still in their entry-level deals. Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle’s big extensions kick in next season, and Sam Gagner is due a big raise. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz still have entry-level time remaining. But not much.

    It points to the urgency to win that needs to be there in Edmonton. They don’t need another lottery pick this season; they need to start reaping the rewards of their previous lottery picks before those players are all on big second contracts.

    It brings us to the final reality. In both Chicago and Pittsburgh, the general manager who started the rebuilding wasn’t there to see its completion. Craig Patrick drafted the Penguins’ stars, but it was Shero who did the final maneuvering and raised the Stanley Cup. Stan Bowman, not Tallon, was the general manager on the ice after the Blackhawks broke through in Philadelphia and won a championship.

    If progress stalls in Edmonton this season, Tambellini’s job will come into question. Bowman and Shero were both talented, young assistant general managers waiting for an opportunity, and there’s no shortage of similar candidates ripe for promotion right now in the NHL, including Nashville’s Paul Fenton, Vancouver’s Laurence Gilman, Phoenix’s Brad Treliving and Tampa Bay’s Julien BriseBois.

    Tambellini has guided the Oilers through the rough waters that come with losing and adding talent. But that’s just one part of the equation in building a winner.

    “People just think you’re bad for a couple years, draft a bunch of players and all of it sudden it takes root,” Tallon said. “The hard part is putting the pieces together.”

  63. striatic says:

    Woodguy: All of that is leverage.

    sure, but it ain’t a lot.

  64. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Maatta would really make me think twice.Same with Trouba.But both would still be the equivalent of turning the clock back 7 years and extending the rebuild.

    What if you had a deal in place with Grebeshkov? (who had superior offensive and puck possession numbers than Smid every had)

    If you have a deal in place for a 2LD, do you sign Smid for even $3.25 or $3.5?

    He’s not your 1LD, and Grebs is a superior player, so that makes Smid 3LD.

    $3.25 is far too much for 3 LD.

    Klef is coming and they are giving him 3LD.

    Maybe Smid is already expendable because of what is coming?

    Oilers need puck moving D a hell of a lot more than shut down D right now.

  65. Lois Lowe says:

    Grebs is the superior player even though he’s not playing in the NHL? I am not sure I buy that.

  66. 42 percent body fat says:

    No one on this team should “be on the Hall contract” except hall. They are not as good as him.

  67. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Grebs is the superior player even though he’s not playing in the NHL? I am not sure I buy that.

    From Greb’s wiki page:

    . He noted that he wanted to stay in the NHL and received several offers, but the offers he received were for 30 to 40 percent lower than his 2009-10 salary and he did not want to take that big of a pay-cut.

    Greb’s numbers as a 25-27 year old in the NHL were good to very good.

    He couldn’t make the amount of $ in the NHL as he could in the KHL and bolted.

    Now that his KHL contract is over, he may want to come back.

    Grebs could pass very well and has always had better possession numbers than Smid.

    He’s always been the better player.

  68. Woodguy says:

    42 percent body fat:
    No one on this team should “be on the Hall contract” except hall.They are not as good as him.

    Its great that Hall’s contract looks a like it will be a real bargain for all of its length.

    That may be the best thing ST ever did for the Oilers.

    If he did it.

  69. "Steve Smith" says:

    Woodguy: He’s not your 1LD, and Grebs is a superior player,

    What’s your basis for that assessment? We haven’t had access to any of Grebs’ fancystats for several years, and I assume you haven’t seen him play much. I’m not discounting the possibility that Grebeshkov’s the better player, but I don’t think it’s a conclusion available to us on the presently available evidence. We do know that Smid’s a pretty good NHL defenceman, albeit I agree not a $4.5 million one.

  70. Lucinius says:

    Woodguy,

    I take Smid over Grebs; offense be damned.

  71. Lois Lowe says:

    Greb’s KHL stats are no screaming hell.

  72. justDOit says:

    Woodguy,

    I think the toughness lost in Grebs Smid would be bad. Ideally, I’d like to see a tough Dman out there with a puck mover on every shift. Not that Smid is ‘fighting tough’, but he’s tough and not small.

  73. justDOit says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Greb’s KHL stats are no screaming hell.

    Offensive? They only give out one assist in the KHL, if memery serves…

  74. Lois Lowe says:

    justDOit: Offensive? They only give out one assist in the KHL, if memery serves…

    His TOI is not looking like top 4 pairing to me and his offense is non-existent.

  75. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: What if you had a deal in place with Grebeshkov? (who had superior offensive and puck possession numbers than Smid every had)

    If you have a deal in place for a 2LD, do you sign Smid for even $3.25 or $3.5?

    He’s not your 1LD, and Grebs is a superior player, so that makes Smid 3LD.

    $3.25 is far too much for 3 LD.Klef is coming and they are giving him 3LD.

    Maybe Smid is already expendable because of what is coming?

    Oilers need puck moving D a hell of a lot more than shut down D right now.

    It’s an interesting theory, WG, but if money is Grebs’ motivator, as it appears it was in the past, why wouldn’t his agent recommend he throw open the shop doors in a weak UFA market and pick and choose where he wants to play… for the most Bernanke Bucks?

    And it’s a pretty risky bet to think Grebs can handle 1LD without him having played over here for a few years.

    In the past two years in the KHL, he has a grand total of 16 points… all assists, no goals. That’s over a sample of 90 games played! It appears that during that time he was the 5th best defenseman (or worse) in scoring on his respective teams. SKA St. Pete’s exiled him to Bumfuck Russia on the wrong side of the Urals earlier this season.

    And if we lose Smid and Whitney, I think a point could be made that in the here and now, we need both good defensive defensemen and good puck-moving defensemen. First Mate Smid is better at his role than the only other decent alternative… Sgt. Schultz.

  76. bookje says:

    Woodguy: What if you had a deal in place with Grebeshkov?(who had superior offensive and puck possession numbers than Smid every had)

    If you have a deal in place for a 2LD, do you sign Smid for even $3.25 or $3.5?

    He’s not your 1LD, and Grebs is a superior player, so that makes Smid 3LD.

    $3.25 is far too much for 3 LD.

    Klef is coming and they are giving him 3LD.

    Maybe Smid is already expendable because of what is coming?

    Oilers need puck moving D a hell of a lot more than shut down D right now.

    Wait, are you suggesting management has a complex and effective plan up their sleeve?

  77. justDOit says:

    I think TambelTavishLoweSon are just waiting for the contract negotiations to build drama for Oil Change.

    Hope…

  78. spoiler says:

    justDOit: I think TambelTavishLoweSon are just waiting for the contract negotiations to build drama for Oil Change. Hope…

    Best thing about the last Oil Change was Smid’s rant. That and Freddie Krueger’s opening speech.

  79. 42 percent body fat says:

    Woodguy,

    agreed! but I hate the eberle contract right now. Dont mind him getting 6 down the road, but if you couldnt see a bit of regression coming or a bit of luck in his season than you shouldnt be a GM. If he was signed 2 years 4 million than we would be fine with smid and gagner contract as it would give us two years for the cap to go up before ebs big pay day,

    Who thinks Nuge should be re-upped to 6M at the end of this year? Wait for him to produce first. Than pay. I know people will talk about his defensive game, but thats not what you pay big bucks for.

  80. OilClog says:

    Replacing Smid with Greb… really???

    I’d give Greb an invite to camp, that’s where it starts and ends.

    I’d sign Smid & Fristic, move Whitney and Schultz sr out.

    XXX, Schultz jr
    Smid, Petry
    Klef, Fistric
    Peckham

    No Potter, ever. Send him to Detroit with O’marks rights for…

    But who is the fish to play along side Schultz Jr next year.. hmmm Yandle? Keleta?

  81. eidy says:

    Looking at 3LW next year. I was wondering about Victor Stalberg. He is handling top 9 minutes in Chicago and would add some size to our top 9. Chicago is going to be up against the cap next year with Kruger and Leddy being RFA and likely to be resigned to higher amounts. They also have Bickel and Roszival as free agents.

    27 years old, 6 foot 3, 209. He can also take and make a pass and shouldn’t cost the moon. I think at this point he is a better, more consistent player than hartikainen and allows Harti to grow on the 4th line.

  82. jb says:

    Smoke? What smoke? Can someone please enlighten me? Why’s Smid as good as gone?

  83. hunter1909 says:

    “Horcoff’s contract has nothing to do with it”. Horcoff apologists during random argument

    “Smid has to go, because the OIlers don’t understand cap management”. Today’s seeming consensus.

    I must be old school – I always thought teams fucked themselves up when they trade away draft picks and whatever decent players they have, for …draft picks.

    If they’re idiots enough to lose Smid, it’s obvious they won’t recover and instead 1,2,3 years down the road the same faces will finally admit that yes, they made a mistake, and would like another 5-7 years to learn more about what they’ve been doing(as opposed to actually doing anything).

    Which will be fine I guess, because it merely means that the Oilers are doomed. And it shouldn’t make a blind bit of difference to me.

    It would be a shame though.

  84. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”: What’s your basis for that assessment?We haven’t had access to any of Grebs’ fancystats for several years, and I assume you haven’t seen him play much.I’m not discounting the possibility that Grebeshkov’s the better player, but I don’t think it’s a conclusion available to us on the presently available evidence.We do know that Smid’s a pretty good NHL defenceman, albeit I agree not a $4.5 million one.

    I’m more or less throwing it out there.

    I haven’t seen him play either, although have heard being traded away from St. Petersburg really pissed him off and he’s playing out the string.

    I do know this about Grebs:

    -Grebs fancy stats were always very good. Smid never attained his level

    -Grebs was a very good passer

    -Grebs was +35 in 100 games in the past 2 years (KHL rarely hands out 2nd assists and is a different game so looking at points is misleading for D)

    -Only played 584 professional games since he was drafted and that is a low odometer for a non-physical Dman

    -Will only be 30 at TC next year

    I think that the biggest possession problem this team has is ham fisted D.

    You can only spend so much on the D given the make up of the forwards

    Spending one of 3 contracts you can have over $3MM in the D on a guy who isn’t a good passer isn’t smart.

  85. Woodguy says:

    bookje: Wait, are you suggesting management has a complex and effective plan up their sleeve?

    MacT is in the room you know.

  86. Woodguy says:

    justDOit:
    Woodguy,

    I think the toughness lost in GrebsSmid would be bad. Ideally, I’d like to see a tough Dman out there with a puck mover on every shift. Not that Smid is ‘fighting tough’, but he’s tough and not small.

    The toughest thing on the team is their inability to get possession back once they loose it.

    Off the glass and out of the Dzone results in scrambly play (see first and second period yesterday)

    I like Smid, and for what he is, he’s pretty good.

    I don’t think he’s what the Oilers need though.

    Top 4 all have to be able to make a good first pass.

    One tough guy with one passer will result in the opposing team keying on the tough guy’s corner and too much “off the glass and out”

  87. Woodguy says:

    OilClog:
    Replacing Smid with Greb… really???

    I’d give Greb an invite to camp, that’s where it starts and ends.

    I’d sign Smid & Fristic, move Whitney and Schultz sr out.

    XXX, Schultz jr
    Smid, Petry
    Klef, Fistric
    Peckham

    No Potter, ever. Send him to Detroit with O’marks rights for…

    But who is the fish to play along side Schultz Jr next year.. hmmm Yandle? Keleta?

    spoiler,

    It’s an interesting theory, WG, but if money is Grebs’ motivator, as it appears it was in the past, why wouldn’t his agent recommend he throw open the shop doors in a weak UFA market and pick and choose where he wants to play… for the most Bernanke Bucks?

    The more money one makes, the less of a motivator is becomes.

    Grebs also likes the Oilers and thanked them for saving him from the Islander organization and said as much after the OIlers traded him to NAS.

    Why wouldn’t he choose Edmonton?

    As far has KHL, Grebs led St. Petersburg in D scoring the first year he was there.

    The next year they brought in Kalinin (very good Dman like him in BUF) and Kotslov who became the top pair, pushing Grebs down the chart.

    Doesn’t look like Grebs was getting PP time, but you wouldn’t need him for that here anyhow.

  88. Marc says:

    jb:
    Smoke? What smoke? Can someone please enlighten me? Why’s Smid as good as gone?

    There isn’t any actual smoke other than the fact that he’s unsigned halfway through his UFA year. Supposedly the Oilers have a history of dumping such players. Though no one has actually provided any examples of this – the only one I can think of is Smyth, which was 6 years ago, under a different owner and a different GM.

    The current GM resigned the the last two players that were actually in this situation – Hemsky and Smyth – and to pretty good deals at that. But no discernable evidence for the Oilers wanting to, or planning to, trade Smid apparently means that he’s as good as gone.

  89. TheOtherJohn says:

    Very few teams have 4 defensemen in their top that are all good puck movers. Moreover, very few teams have 4 puck movers that don’t get eaten alive offensively. I always liked Grebs but looked on him as Gilbert lite and am not sure that he will be good enough in his own end enough to play top 4 minutes on a team playing 4 series in the playoffs. Jason Smith was a top 4 D man on a SCF team and Smid is much better getting puck out of the zone than Gator was

  90. Woodguy says:

    Matt.N:
    This can’t be looked at in black and white.

    Signing Smid = Good. Trading = Bad

    Questions that need to be asked.

    Can I get him on a value contract? I would suggest anything under 3.5 cap hit is value.

    Is there a deal that blows me away? If the Penguins step up with Simon Depres or Olli Maata you have to look really hard at that.

    Agreed all points.

  91. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909: Target the high school graduating class, up to 2nd year university in the extremely rare chance there are any intellectuals on the current team and no, wearing glasses doesn’t quite qualify.

    Edmonton girls don’t need encouragement to try to land an Oiler.

  92. Marc says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

    After last night’s terrible line change, NSH forward Sergei Kostitsyn is expected to be a healthy scratch Tuesday vs CBJ.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Grebs is the superior player even though he’s not playing in the NHL? I am not sure I buy that.

    I don’t know if he’s superior.

    I would rather pay a “Grebs type” $4M than Smid.

    These kids need players who can pass in the top 4.

  94. bluenotenorth says:

    striatic,

    I think things are much tighter to the cap in 2013-14 than you suggest.

    To get under $64.3M and not compromise the future, Oilers should replace all 3rd pairing D, 4th line F and 2G who make $1.5M or more.

    Retire Khabibulin $3.75M and Sutton $1.75M
    Move Whitney $4.0M and Jones $1.5M
    Compliance buyout Smyth $2.25M Belanger $1.75M
    (It’s not personal Smytie; it’s business.)
    Total freed up $15M.

    2013-14 signed contracts $44.087M

    Sign
    Gagner from $3.2M to $5M (equal to Hemsky)
    Smid from $2.25M to $3.5M (equal to N Schultz)
    Paajarvi from $1.525M to $2M
    Fistric from $1.475M to $1.675M
    Hartikainen from $0.875M to $1M
    Add
    Lander $0.9M
    Add Klefbom $1.275M
    Three 12/13/14 forwards $0.8M each = $2.4
    Backup G $1.2M
    Bury
    Eagar $1.1M-($0.850M+$0.375M) = $0.125 cap hit
    Trade/release
    Peckham

    Total $63.162M Cap space $1.138M

    Keep Smyth and cap space is $0.

    Either way, no $ in 2013-14 for an upgrade to D nor a power forward, unless Oilers move additional bodies.
    More cap room in 2014-15 with N. Schultz and Hemsky at UFAs, but you need to re-sign Nugent-Hopkins and Dubnyk.

  95. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: -Grebs was a very good passer-Grebs was +35 in 100 games in the past 2 years (KHL rarely hands out 2nd assists and is a different game so looking at points is misleading for D)

    Being the 5th best defenseman on your team two years in a running when it comes to points, and so bad that your team exiles you to an 80,000 person podunk town on the edge of Siberia can’t be all that misleading.

  96. Woodguy says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Very few teams have 4 defensemen in their top that are all good puck movers. Moreover, very few teams have 4 puck movers that don’t get eaten alive offensively. I always liked Grebs but looked on him as Gilbert lite and am not sure that he will be good enough in his own end enough to play top 4 minutes on a team playing 4 series in the playoffs. Jason Smith was a top 4 D man on a SCF team and Smid is much better getting puck out of the zone than Gator was

    Jason Smith was a top 4 D man on a SCF team and Smid is much better getting puck out of the zone than Gator was

    If Smid played with Pronger I’m sure he’d be fine too.

  97. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Being the 5th best defenseman on your team two years in a running when it comes to points, and so bad that your team sends you to Siberia can’t be all that misleading.

    Not sure.

    I bring up Grebs because everyone here knows him.

    Think Grebs type, if not the player himself.

  98. Marc says:

    Woodguy: Not sure.

    I bring up Grebs because everyone here knows him.

    Think Grebs type, if not the player himself.

    Bouwmeester comes to mind.

    I still wonder if the WOW trade that Stauffer was talking about in the fall was for him.

  99. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    All of those reasons you have given are not very compelling – save for the he wants to be a part of what is going on in Edmonton. All have been heard before by departing UFA’s .Hello Ryan Suter.

    Grebeshkov has not been in the NHL since 2009/10? He also is 30 years old this year.

    God help us if a decision about Smid is based on somebody not even in the league.

  100. Lois Lowe says:

    Woodguy: What if you had a deal in place with Grebeshkov?(who had superior offensive and puck possession numbers than Smid every had)

    If you have a deal in place for a 2LD, do you sign Smid for even $3.25 or $3.5?

    He’s not your 1LD, and Grebs is a superior player, so that makes Smid 3LD.

    $3.25 is far too much for 3 LD.

    Klef is coming and they are giving him 3LD.

    Maybe Smid is already expendable because of what is coming?

    Oilers need puck moving D a hell of a lot more than shut down D right now.

    Woodguy: Not sure.

    I bring up Grebs because everyone here knows him.

    Think Grebs type, if not the player himself.

    Backpedaling.

  101. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Being the 5th best defenseman on your team two years in a running when it comes to points, and so bad that your team exiles you to an 80,000 person podunk town on the edge ofSiberia can’t be all that misleading.

    That’s like saying Smid is no good because he came in 6th, 4th, and 5th in points for Oiler D and because the Oilers haven’t signed him it must mean he’s no good.

    Also,

    Grebs points via team:

    10/11 1st
    11/12 4th after the team brings in a new duo for 1PP
    12/13 Gets traded and quits giving a shit

  102. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    You are pretty much just making stuff up actually.

    Which part?

  103. godot10 says:

    42 percent body fat:
    Woodguy,

    agreed! but I hate the eberle contract right now.Dont mind him getting 6 down the road, but if you couldnt see a bit of regression coming or a bit of luck in his season than you shouldnt be a GM.If he was signed 2 years 4 million than we would be fine with smid and gagner contract as it would give us two years for the cap to go up before ebs big pay day,

    Who thinks Nuge should be re-upped to 6M at the end of this year?Wait for him to produce first.Than pay.I know people will talk about his defensive game, but thats not what you pay big bucks for.

    Jordan Eberle has been snakebit this season, yet he is still basically in the top 70 point scoring forwards in the league, safely in first line scoring territory.
    Even so, some comparables.
    Jordan Eberle 20 points
    Bobby Ryan 21 points
    Max Pacioretty 22 points
    Tyler Seguin 22 points
    Zach Parise 22 points
    Marion Hossa 23 points
    Nick Backstrom 24 points
    Daniel Sedin 24 points
    Ilya Kovalchuk 25 points
    Some of you guys are freaking out about 4 or 5 points off of the pace of last year based on a 28 game sample size.
    28 GAME SAMPLE SIZE FOLKS
    You guys are throwing Eberle under the bus for a 28 game sample size. Last year he was getting super favorable zone starts. This year he isn’t. He is playing much more minutes this year.

  104. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Backpedaling.

    A bit.

    I think giving Smid $4MM/yr is a disaster.

    I also think that Grebs is a better player.

  105. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Backpedaling.

    You changed from “making stuff up” to “backpedaling”

    Were you backpedaling on me making stuff up?
    :)

  106. denny33 says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Very well said….

  107. godot10 says:

    With the new CBA, and the inability to bury Redden/Gomez type of contracts, offering term is a lot more risky.

    I would be leery offering a non-top two D more than 4 years.

    Only really core players should be on super-extended term contracts.

    Also, keep away from the no-movement, no-trade clauses as much as possible.

    I think if the Oilers can get Smid on a three-or-four year deal with a high $3 handle per season, that will be a decent contract. He can easily get $4 million on July 1, probably $4.5 because D are so scarce. Third pairing veteran D routinely sign for $3-3.5 million per season now. Rob Scuderi $3.4 million this season is the last year of a 4 year contract. It was signed an eternity ago. The market is higher. Josh Gorges at $3.9 million is closer to the market for Smid.

  108. denny33 says:

    Marc,

    Anyone see the replay of Nashville’s bench….some of their guys were hopping up and down.

    Man – there has to be something more to the story with that guy. Whole bench screaming at you?

  109. Lois Lowe says:

    Woodguy: You changed from “making stuff up” to “backpedaling”

    Were you backpedaling on me making stuff up?

    I changed it because, it’s obvious that you’re making things up about a deal being in place. You have taken the narrative from the Gilbert trade/Schultz signing (which is likely false) and applied it now as a reason why Smid hasn’t been resigned. The whole thing is fiction and we both know it.

    As far as back pedalling goes, it works better with the quotes.

  110. Mr DeBakey says:

    If they bring in Grebeshkov, it shouldn’t be to replace Smid.
    It should be in ADDITION to Smid.

    If he’s replacing anyone, Whitney!
    The one-legged Whitney. not the Whitney the Oilers traded for.

  111. edwards_daddy says:

    So Ladi and the Oilers open contract talks, and all of a sudden he’s available for a late 2nd. What’s the odds that this rumour started somewhere very close to the mouth piece of Smid’s agents mobile?
    Oldest negotiating tactic in sport.
    He’ll be signed within the week.

  112. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: That’s like saying Smid is no good because he came in 6th, 4th, and 5th in points for Oiler D and because the Oilers haven’t signed him it must mean he’s no good.Also,Grebs points via team:10/11 1st11/12 4th after the team brings in a new duo for 1PP12/13 Gets traded and quits giving a shit

    I have to agree with Lois.. you appear to be building a narrative, not reporting one. Smid plays a different role. We don’t evaluate them on the same basis, do we? Or is your point now that Grebs plays the same game as Smid? You are trying to make the point that Grebs is a good puck-mover, yet he isn’t even top 4 on his KHL teams over the past two years in that role.

    I guess techinically he was tied for 4th in 11/12, but considering he played twice as many games as the player he was tied with Pervyshin, I’m going to stick with my original 5th.

  113. prairieschooner says:

    I think it is unforgivable if the Oilers use the fact that Smid wants to stay in Edmonton as a bargaining chip to try to get him cheaper.
    What message are they sending if that is the case?
    The Oilers do not have any top 4 d men to step in if Laddy is traded.
    I am looking forward to seeing Oscar but he has to be healthy and he needs to get some experience in North America.
    Perhaps the Oilers should look at the other D men and upgrade them before they trade a legit top 4

  114. Doug McLachlan says:

    Mr DeBakey: If they bring in Grebeshkov, it shouldn’t be to replace Smid.It should be in ADDITION to Smid.If he’s replacing anyone, Whitney!The one-legged Whitney. not the Whitney the Oilers traded for.

    This.

    Unless, of course, the Whitney the Oilers traded for can be confirmed recovered prior to April 3rd.

  115. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe: I changed it because, it’s obvious that you’re making things up about a deal being in place. You have taken the narrative from the Gilbert trade/Schultz signing (which is likely false) and applied it now as a reason why Smid hasn’t been resigned. The whole thing is fiction and we both know it.

    As far as back pedalling goes, it works better with the quotes.

    I have no knowledge of a deal in place with anyone.

    I am speculating.

    I also think that if the Oilers trade Smid they actually have a plan.

  116. BONVIE says:

    OilClog:
    Trading 27yr old Smid, replacing him with 35yr old Streit… How does this help us?

    How does trading Smid make one horse hair of sense? Detroit thinks he would fill out their top4 nicely, and here we are thinking about trading him… Will this madness never end?! I want to see the Oilers as a real hockey team, not view them as MLB’s Athletics.. Wait atleast they make the playoffs somehow.. Fuck.

    I think you summed it up pretty well with this post.

  117. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: I have to agree with Lois.. you appear to be building a narrative, not reporting one.Smid plays a different role. We don’t evaluate them on the same basis, do we?Or is your point now that Grebs plays the same game as Smid?You are trying to make the point that Grebs is a good puck-mover, yet he isn’t even top 4 on his KHL teams over the past two years in that role.

    I guess techinically he was tied for 4th in 11/12, but considering he played twice as many games as the player he was tied with Pervyshin, I’m going to stick with my original 5th.

    I thought I made it clear I was speculating.

    You also keep ignoring he was 1st in D scoring 10/11

  118. DBO says:

    For all those Clowe haters, a sure sign he is going to be an Oiler either this year or in the summer. From Friedman’s 30 thoughts:

    5. The biggest concern about Clowe is not that he hasn’t scored this season. It’s if he’s more injured than we realize. The winger left Saturday’s loss to Los Angeles with a shoulder injury — which may have confirmed potential suitors’ fears. They’re nervous about it.

  119. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: I thought I made it clear I was speculating.You also keep ignoring he was 1st in D scoring 10/11

    Sorry about speculating on the speculation thing.

    I’m not ignoring he was 1st in 10/11. I’m placing more emphasis on the two more recent years. We have no underlying info for this player, so we have to go with what we have. I would also like to point out that he was so good that 10/11 year that St. Pete’s went and found TWO defensemen who were able to DOUBLE his points totals from that year during the 11/12 year with the same opportunities.

    Sorry, WG, but the little we do know about Grebs recently, stinks.

  120. TheOtherJohn says:

    godot10: Jordan Eberle has been snakebit this season, yet he is still basically in the top 70 point scoring forwards in the league, safely in first line scoring territory.Even so, some comparables.Jordan Eberle 20 pointsBobby Ryan 21 pointsMax Pacioretty 22 pointsTyler Seguin 22 pointsZach Parise 22 pointsMarion Hossa 23 pointsNick Backstrom 24 pointsDaniel Sedin 24 pointsIlya Kovalchuk 25 pointsSome of you guys are freaking out about 4 or 5 points off of the pace of last year based on a 28 game sample size.28 GAME SAMPLE SIZE FOLKSYou guys are throwing Eberle under the bus for a 28 game sample size. Last year he was getting super favorable zone starts. This year he isn’t. He is playing much more minutes this year.

    You, like Oiler mangement, looked at Eberle’s performance last year and projected his performance and his 5 year contract was based off of that projected performance. . The last time KLowe did that, we got the Horcoff contract. Good player/terrible contract.. Eberle is a better offensive player than Horcoff but both contracts: Horcoff’s and Eberle’s were based off of a small sample size.of strong offensive performance. If Eberle is an 80 point guy, the 6 million contract is not too bad a contract. If he is a 58 point player (this years perfromance projected over 82 games) we are getting closer to Horcoffian offensive performance. Last year he also a very high shooting percentage

    You point to 28 games and say it represents a small sample size. The precise same argument applies to the managers that signed him to a $6m contract after the totality of a single strong 78 game sample size

  121. Lowetide says:

    If he’d read my RE this wouldn’t be an issue :-)

  122. bookje says:

    jb:
    Smoke? What smoke? Can someone please enlighten me? Why’s Smid as good as gone?

    The Oilersnation Lowetide suggested that he thinks that the Oilers will sign Smid a couple of days ago.

    My sense is that when the Lowetide brothers can’t agree on something like this, we need to accept that there is a lot of uncertainty and we really don’t know what is going to happen.

  123. TheOtherJohn says:

    Only thing that Lowetide brothers can both agree on is: 3-1 trades by Oilers imminent and MAP is just 1 opportunity away from a breakout season in the show

  124. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    Sorry, WG, but the little we do know about Grebs recently, stinks

    His point totals this year stinks.

    Taken off the PP1 in 11/12 and his points will dropped.

    You’re putting his points in an NHL context.

    In the KHL and other Euro leagues you can make an outlet pass to a winger, who makes one more pass and its in the net. No assist for the Dman.

    You can pass it to a winger in the Dzone and he skates to the other end and score and still not get an assist because you didn’t materialy contribute to the scoring chance. Seriously.

    Most of the D racking up points in the KHL play the PP.

    You also mentioned the two players they brought in for 1PP.

    Those players were very good and finished 6th and 17th in the league in D scoring that year.

    That makes them better PP players than Grebs.

    I never stated they Oilers need a PPD.

    They need a D who makes a good first pass.

    I haven’t seen him make a first pass in a couple years so I don’t know if he still can, but its probable.

    This year only 15 Dmen in the KHL averaged over .5pts/gm.

    Here are the top 50 Dmen in a 28 team league.

    The drop off is pretty steep. You can see who gets PP time and who doesn’t as well as who plays for good teams and who don’t:

    Name PTS
    Dallman Kevin 54
    Maenpaa Mikko 37
    Ryazantsev Alexander 36
    Kalinin Dmitry 35
    Chudinov Maxim 35
    Koltsov Kirill 35
    Niskala Janne 34
    Proshkin Vitaly 34
    Galvins Guntis 30
    Hietanen Juuso 30
    Obsut Jaroslav 29
    Guskov Alexander 28
    Korneyev Konstantin 27
    Podhradsky Peter 26
    Nikulin Ilya 24
    Medvedev Evgeny 24
    Denisov Denis 23
    Quint Deron 22
    Baranka Ivan 21
    Redlihs Krisjanis 21
    Ozolins Sandis 20
    Bodrov Denis 20
    Granak Dominik 20
    Pepelyaev Alexei 20
    Shulakov Vitaly 19
    Kulyash Denis 18
    Belov Vyacheslav 18
    Giroux Raymond 18
    Atyushov Vitaly 18
    Valivaara Jyrki 18
    Blatak Miroslav 17
    Yevseyenkov Alexander 17
    Benoit Andre 17
    Kronwall Staffan 17
    Bondarev Alexei 17
    Pilar Karel 17
    Mantyla Tuukka 17
    Varlamov Evgeny 16
    Kuklev Mikhail 16
    Rylov Yakov 16
    Junland Jonas 15
    Hutchinson Andrew 15
    Sokolov Denis 15
    Skoula Martin 15
    Vorobyov Dmitry 15
    Osipov Alexander 14
    Karalahti Jere 14
    Mezei Branislav 14
    Krajicek Lukas 14
    Ibragimov Rinat 14

  125. Marc says:

    Chudinov is a guy I’d love to see on the Oilers.

    I wonder if Boston would give him up for Whitney or Belanger?

  126. 42 percent body fat says:

    godot10,

    Im not throwing him under the bus right now but If you think he is worth 6M and as much as taylor hall than you are blind.

    Now we have a problem if Gagner pushes ppg status because he has a point to get paid that much also, and he will have done it without a 19% shooting percentage.

    That is why I dont like the contract. Never said I dont like Eberle. But he looks very underwhelming this year. People need to realize reasonable expectations for him, stop the honeymoon with his junior days and move on. He is not worth a rushed 6M contract.

    And as I like him and all, but If he makes team Canada for the olympics I will be dissapointed because there are at least 15 better forwards out there.

  127. 42 percent body fat says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    absolutely agree! How many people are going to bitch about the gagner contract at the end of the year. Yet he IS our best penalty killer and is on pace for a better season than eberle last year playing a tougher position and role. So now we have to pay him minimum 5M and we will have another contract holding us back when we could have squeezed at least 1M if not 2M out of the cap between the two of them.

  128. delooper says:

    The whole “trade Smid” thing you’ve have going on **the entire time Smid has been on the Oilers** I take as your one vice, Lowetide. If you didn’t have that, you’ve had to be wrong about something else. Let’s let it be Smid.

    Smid is staying with the Oilers. I think everyone (the Oilers, Smid, his agent, everyone) is resigned to that. It would be insane for the Oilers to trade him, especially for the kind of deal you’re talking about.

  129. 42 percent body fat says:

    godot10,

    and my analysis of eberles contract has nothing to do with his 28 games this year. I said all of this last year when he was signed.

  130. Lowetide says:

    delooper:
    The whole “trade Smid” thing you’ve have going on **the entire time Smid has been on the Oilers** I take as your one vice, Lowetide.If you didn’t have that, you’ve had to be wrong about something else.Let’s let it be Smid.

    Smid is staying with the Oilers.I think everyone (the Oilers, Smid, his agent, everyone) is resigned to that. It would be insane for the Oilers to trade him, especially for the kind of deal you’re talking about.

    I’m hopeful they will sign Smid to a solid contract. they sure can use him!

  131. justDOit says:

    2 hours ago
    @TSNBobMcKenzie: No surprise, but Andrej Sustr, 6-foot-8 Univ of Nebraska-Omaha junior dman (UFA), has officially decided to leave school/field NHL offers.

  132. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I’m hopeful they will sign Smid to a solid contract. they sure can use him!

    Use him as trade bait!

  133. Rebilled says:

    Woodguy,

    I thought Smid married a Czech girl.

    and Gilbert married the Edmonton girl.

  134. Lowetide says:

    Rebilled:
    Woodguy,

    I thought Smid married a Czech girl.

    and Gilbert married the Edmonton girl.

    Ah, Christ. I sense a Salo thing here.

  135. justDOit says:

    Perry signs for 8 yrs @ 8.625M aav.

  136. justDOit says:

    Rebilled:
    Woodguy,

    I thought Smid married a Czech girl.

    and Gilbert married the Edmonton girl.

    A quick google (all that I’m willing to invest) returned that Smid got married in the Czech Republic, and had a big party in Edmonton.

  137. Rebilled says:

    I was corrected on this before. I want the truth!
    justDOit,

  138. justDOit says:

    Rebilled:
    I was corrected on this before. I want the truth!
    justDOit,

    What do I look like – TNZ?

    Oh wait, maybe I do, because I don’t know what they look like. Nevertheless, and irregardlessly, I’m not editor of the Edmonton social pages.

    But his marital status, and the birthplace of his bride, doesn’t change the fact that Smid has publicly expressed a desire to stay with the Oilers and that he likes playing in Edmonton.

  139. justDOit says:

    Perry and Getzlaf’s cap hits next season will comprise 25% of the entire team’s cap limit. Someone’s betting the cap won’t go down after next year!

  140. jp says:

    justDOit:
    Perry and Getzlaf’s cap hits next season will comprise 25% of the entire team’s cap limit. Someone’s betting the cap won’t go down after next year!

    I’m OK with Hall and Ebs for 12M.

  141. justDOit says:

    Well as it sits now, the only game that can become a 3-pointer is LA/PHX. That’s huge for scoreboard watching.

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