SHARKS AT OILERS G29 (12-13) 19.3.13

As we get closer to the trade deadline, we’re going to hear more “Oilers scouts at Washington game” tweets and stories. The Oilers are extremely unlikely to trade part of the future for help immediately, but I think they are probably looking to add some pieces long term if they are available. Things like:

  • A tough forward who can play on the skill line (Brouwer family).
  • A LH 2-way defenseman (Bouwmeester family).
  • A solid goaltender who can push Dubnyk without being miscast as backup (Bishop). Sens are looking btw.

Beyond that, I don’t really see the point in making a deal. All other spots either have an internal option or Edmonton would be better served in waiting until summer.

Summer is also a better time to offload impact players with term like Hemsky, but I’ve included him here because you never know and 83 is unlikely to be here for the long term (his replacement–Yakupov–is here). I suspect the Oilers will make a decision on Hemmer around the draft. Among the current Oilers who either have term left on their deal or will be RFA this summer, I can see the following being dealt:

  1. Ales Hemsky (UFA 2014): The Oilers were not getting strong offers for him a year ago (the rumored return was a 2nd and a 4th from Nashville).
  2. Ben Eager (UFA 2014): One year left at $1.1M and the concussion issues are a concern. Plus he’s been on waivers.
  3. Eric Belanger (UFA 2014): Makes $1.75M and might fill a need for a 4line C, faceoff guy and penalty killer.
  4. D Theo Peckham (RFA 2013): Forgotten man among the Oilers, but he’s a defenseman with NHL experience and that has value.

And here’s my UFA list:

  1. Ladislav Smid (UFA): Edmonton hasn’t signed him yet and that might mean there’s a gap between agent and team in terms of zero’s on the contract. Smid is going to get paid, the Oilers have to figure out if they want to be the team to pay him.
  2. Ryan Whitney (UFA): Defensemen always have increased value at the deadline, Whitney is a veteran and a team with depth who could play him on the 3rd pairing plus PP might want him for that role. My guess is they surprise everyone and get a 3rd rd pick for the veteran.
  3. Mark Fistric (UFA): I think the Oilers sign him in the next few weeks, it is clear they like Fistric plenty. However, if a team came calling and management were of a mind to trade him I doubt the club would get less than the pick they gave up for him (3rd rd pick).
  4. Ryan Jones (UFA): He’s coming off an eye injury, but his wheels are fine. An NHL team might want to increase their offense in the bottom 6F and have a guy who isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty, either.
  5. Nikolai Khabibulin (UFA): Hasn’t played in awhile, extreme longshot to play in another city at this point. Will the Oilers re-sign him?

Eric Belanger remains on IR. Story here.

Krueger unleashed part of his philosophy on the game yesterday, Terry Jones has the story here. I won’t quote the entire article (it’s a worthwhile read) but did want to grab two passages:

  • Krueger: “You need leaders physically. That is a skill that is not considered a skill by many people. For me it’s a huge skill, to be able to play physically, to be a physical presence, to wear down the other team’s defence.”

I have no argument with that statement, but the Oilers have employed physical players who can’t do many of the other things that contribute to winning: passing, taking a pass, staying in the proper defensive position, not taking dumb penalties, not getting out of position to make a big hit–those sorts of things.

One of the best things about the Krueger is that he’s culled the herd–Hordichuk and then Eager on waivers and in OKC–and credit too should be passed along to the Lowe trio for adding Fistric and Brown. Both appear to be better versions of a player type Edmonton feels they need in order to win. We’re a long way from Steve MacIntyre.

  • Krueger: “ There are things that are unmeasurable in statistics. Consistent gapping of the opposition Taking away of space. All of those things make the identity of what the Edmonton Oilers want to be.”

I think you’d be able to see positives in Corsi results over time, no? Either way, I understand the point he’s making and it certainly offers insight into his reasoning re: Yakupov in the third period. Read the situation, remember where you’re supposed to be.

Ralph Krueger is a man with a plan.

Two Oiler prospects who have emerged this winter–Jujhar Khaira and Dillon Simpson–will be the subject of an upcoming blog. Simpson turned 20 a month ago and is having a terrific year. When we discuss players turning pro, I think we can safely include him as a possibility based on merit.

San Jose has been struggling for awhile now, this would appear to be a winnable game for the Oildrop. I’ll tell you this: if they win tonight the standings have a chance to look a lot better in the morning:

standings mar 20

 

Colorado, Calgary and Nashville have the look of teams falling away, but a quick to game winning streak for any of these teams changes everything. The Oilers are 3-0-1 in their last 4, and if they can grab 10 points in their 7 games before the deadline (not too hard a task if they’re serious about making the post-season) they should arrive at the deadline in playoff contention.

I spoke with Jason Strudwick on the radio show last weekend about the deadline, and he told me adding a player at the deadline gives a club a tremendous lift, while offloading a key part of the team is difficult to overcome (obvious, but he put it in very specific terms–worth a listen).

Will they add a Ben Bishop? A Mark Streit? A Troy Brouwer? I think we’ll see the Oilers import and export between now and the deadline. No one can argue this team isn’t making every effort, and no one can suggest they are not getting results:

who's hot

 

Come on, Tambellini. You owe it to your Oilers to make a deal that improves their chances. God knows you owe it to the fanbase.

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379 Responses to "SHARKS AT OILERS G29 (12-13) 19.3.13"

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  1. russ99 says:

    Hmm, scouts at Washington games? Which kids are we giving up for Ovechkin? (kidding!)

    I’d love to see the Oilers not only clear the obvious detritus, but also make a few moves to get and sign a RFA/UFA or two before those salaries go sky-high this summer, despite the shrinking cap.

  2. tcho says:

    Here’s hoping it’s more of a Brewer-plus-for Pronger type trade (hey, a fellow can dream!), and not a Schultz-for-Gilbert type trade.

    You have to give Tambo some credit in the trades department – he’s done better than could be expected in the past getting some kind of return on spare parts (Moreau, Staios, …). Maybe he can do something with the Belanger/Eager/Peckham family this season?

  3. sliderule says:

    What RK is saying is that even though Brown and Petrell can’t take a pass or give one they have poise that can only be measured by a coach.

    Tougness is also really important and we must be tough because we are one of the most penalized teams in NHL.

    As for those fancy stats they don’t measure the really important things like gap control.

    Nothings changed in oiler land.

  4. FrankenOil says:

    3 guys that I’d be willing to bet the Oilers are looking at are:

    1) Jason Chimera LW- Chimera would be a real veteran presence on the 2nd or 3rd line and add a little size/scoring touch/Pk’ing.
    2) Matt Hendricks C (UFA after this season) – Hendricks would bring a physical presence to the 4th line C position who can chip in the odd goal, fight and win faceoffs and not get killed while he’s on the ice (Rel Corsi of -6.5 vs Belanger’s -18.9).
    3) Eric Fehr RW- Fehr is a 27 yr old 6′-4″ winger who has 6 goals and one prior 20 goal season and the Oilers really liked him in his draft year. He is a UFA after the year but could be an intriguing player to take for a test drive on the 2nd line with RNH and Ebs (if he’s willing/able to play on the off-wing) and might be willing to sign a value contract as he is currently on a 600K deal.

    I’d actually be alright with any of those 3 to be honest.

  5. DBO says:

    Washington won’t just start dumping people since they believe they can still make the playoffs. They may consider a true “hockey trade” or maybe it is a swap of bottom 6ers to change up the team dynamic. I’ve mentioned Brouwer a whole lot on this blog, and I do think he is who they would want, but unfortunately I would expect Oates to love him so to get him would take Hemsky, and that is an overpay (but exactly the kind of deal I would expect from MacTambLowe – truculence, grit, two way, size, etc.)

    One guy you never mentioned LT is Mike Green. He fits everything we need and everything we seem to get
    - two way offensive dman.
    - young enough
    - OK Size
    = injury prone
    = too big of a contract
    = not great in his own zone

    Seems like a perfect Oiler!!!!

    Brouwer is a RW (so no room unless they unload Hemsky). Green is a RD (no room unless you plan on playing him on his off wing). I wonder if the sneaky pick up by sending them someone like Jones could be Wolski? He is soft, but has size (6’3, 215 lbs), is the right age (27), he has skills and hands but has struggled, and is very injury prone so he truly fits! he is a LW who may benefit with playing with Nuge and Eberle. He is a UFA at years end, and maybe Washington wants the “energy” of a guy like Jones, while we would be happy to add a guy with size and hands like Wolski. Be a nice fit and minor pickup, but one that would improve our balance and our depth (especially since Jones is lacking so far)

  6. justDOit says:

    I think LT stumbled upon it – Tambellini is more of an importer/exporter than a GM. Please MacT and Howson, please provide suitable guidance for this year’s deadline.

  7. Woodguy says:

    Western Conference Standings this morning:

    CHICAGO 0.879
    ANAHEIM 0.821
    LOS ANGELES 0.621
    MINNESOTA 0.607
    ST LOUIS 0.586
    VANCOUVER 0.586
    DETROIT 0.569
    SAN JOSE 0.536
    ————————————–
    DALLAS 0.518
    PHOENIX 0.500
    COLUMBUS 0.500
    EDMONTON 0.500
    CALGARY 0.481
    NASHVILLE 0.467
    COLORADO 0.429

    San Jose isn’t as good as their start and isn’t as bad as their last 15 games

    I don’t see DET or VAN shitting the bed enough to fall out, so everyone is after the last spot.

    Critical game tonight and SJS big forwards tend to own the Oiler D (despite Oiler D being of good size)

    I predict McLellan getting Joe out against 6 and 19 every chance he gets and SJS winning 5-2.

    I also predict RK talking about “getting away from our system” after the game, when he simply gets out coached again.

    I hope RK puts 10 out against Joe.

    I hope the Oilers win.

    Go Oilers!!

    *clap,clap*

  8. danny says:

    The problem with getting talent at this deadline, invariably will be the sheer amount of teams still in the playoff hunt. It’s going to be a sellers market in my estimation. Which means you have to be willing to overpay. Without getting into my opinion on the merits of overpaying right now, I’d suggest there’s a reluctance to trade away any youth for short term upgrades. We are probably more likely to see vet’s like Whitney go for youth.

  9. hunter1909 says:

    “Krueger: “You need leaders physically. That is a skill that is not considered a skill by many people. For me it’s a huge skill, to be able to play physically, to be a physical presence, to wear down the other team’s defence.”
    I have no argument with that statement, but the Oilers have employed physical players who can’t do many of the other things that contribute to winning: passing, taking a pass, staying in the proper defensive position, not taking dumb penalties, not getting out of position to make a big hit–those sorts of things.”

    Lowetide: Just because I’ve had a big night out and feel either cranky or else am insightful(rarely understand the difference), exactly what does your following statement have to do with Kreuger, who is the topic of your words?

    Kreuger’s merely stating an underlying factor, something that you amateurs apparently miss out on in your somewhat blind, headlong rush to statisfy(lol new word) hockey.

  10. Thiru says:

    Woodguy:
    Western Conference Standings this morning:

    CHICAGO0.879
    ANAHEIM0.821
    LOS ANGELES0.621
    MINNESOTA0.607
    ST LOUIS0.586
    VANCOUVER0.586
    DETROIT0.569
    SAN JOSE0.536
    ————————————–
    DALLAS0.518
    PHOENIX0.500
    COLUMBUS0.500
    EDMONTON0.500
    CALGARY0.481
    NASHVILLE0.467
    COLORADO0.429

    San Jose isn’t as good as their start and isn’t as bad as their last 15 games

    I don’t see DET or VAN shitting the bed enough to fall out, so everyone is after the last spot.

    Critical game tonight and SJS big forwards tend to own the Oiler D (despite Oiler D being of good size)

    I predict McLellan getting Joe out against 6 and 19 every chance he gets and SJS winning 5-2.

    I also predict RK talking about “getting away from our system” after the game, when he simply gets out coached again.

    I hope RK puts 10 out against Joe.

    I hope the Oilers win.

    Go Oilers!!

    *clap,clap*

    Regarding RK, you (and everyone, for that matter) should read the latest series on mc79. It is literally dynamite. The latest one (Defending Ralph IV) is just awesome. That guy should get a job with an NHL team.

    Also, I should point out that the Joe T scenario you envision is a somewhat peculiar prediction; Kreuger has said before that he prefers getting his D-matchup before the forward matchup, and also that, by QoC, Whitney plays the weakest opposition amongst the regular D.

    I call 5-2 Oilers!

  11. DBO says:

    danny,

    or the classic change of scenery trades (like the Jones for Wolski one I mentioned). Willis at ON has one of those with Eager for Mccormick form Buffalo (two tougher guys on same deal in minors, but both kinda bring something to their new team).
    http://oilersnation.com/2013/3/20/irresponsible-speculation-cody-mccormick-for-ben-eager

    And a Rangers columnist was on with Gregor yesterday and he mentioned that Boyle is definitely available, with Torts probably wanting a vet back (since they don’t see Boyle as more then a 4th liner). Same money as Belanger, and maybe you add Whitney to get Boyle and a prospect. Be nice fit here as our 4th line centre, and make us younger, bigger, meaner while losing no offense or PK and faceoff ability with Boyle instead of Belanger. A smart deal dammit, make the call MacTambLowe.

    Deal Belanger and Whitney (who people now think is coming around so move him cause he will cost us too much) for Boyle and Stralman (5/6 RH dman who is an upgrade on Potter and can move the puck).
    Move Jones for Wolski (hockey deal helps both teams)

    If that is all he does, re-signs Smid and holds onto Hemsky and Gagner then I would be ecstatic. Small changes, upgrade some spots, make us younger and more balanced and not sacrifice any of the kids. Do it!!!!!

  12. hunter1909 says:

    Kreuger’s also been tossed into the deep end of something that would overwhelm most of us. No training camp, no chance to play exhibition games, nothing. The dude’s got the Oiler’s knocking on the door of the playoff race. Shades of the old MacT days, where they’d flounder early then make a push. The big difference being, if they manage to make 8th or better we’re all going to be ecstatically happy(with the usual exceptions).

    I still say they make it, if a guy with same last name as an old timey goalie named Glenn wants them to.

  13. hunter1909 says:

    Taylor Hall: The NHL’s secret superstar. Literally, a human rocket on skates.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I guess you know the pressure of the impending deadline is mounting when the game day picture doesn’t involve the teams in action tonight but potential trade bait.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    About this J-Bow fantasy… what are the actual, legitimate chances we can get him?

    Are they high enough that the team sits on its hands waiting for his current contract to expire to deal with his agent?

    If they don’t wait, how much has to go to pry him loose before that contract expires? And, would Calgary even deal him within the (future) conference?

  16. BlacqueJacque says:

    This game is eminently winnable so I expect these Oilers who seem to think they’re a Gretzky squad already to coast through and be surprised by the loss.

    That said, if my rudimentary math is to be trusted, the cutoff in the West seems to be at 52 points now rather than 55, due to the even play of all the marginal teams.

  17. BlacqueJacque says:
  18. GordM says:

    justDOit: importer/exporter

    So it’s settled…Art Vandelay for our next GM.

  19. dessert1111 says:

    I’ve watched a few Islanders games lately and Streit looks very slow. Not to mention he is getting old. I understand no one thinks he’s the future, but I wouldn’t want to give up anything more than something like Whitney or a 4th round pick for him at this point, neither of which will get it done. I hope they don’t target him.

  20. justDOit says:

    GordM: So it’s settled…Art Vandelay for our next GM.

    No no no no no! I’m saying we’ve already got him – I’m hoping that someone responsible like Kramer will have a positive influence running up to the deadline.

  21. Thiru says:

    Krueger: “ There are things that are unmeasurable in statistics. Consistent gapping of the opposition Taking away of space. All of those things make the identity of what the Edmonton Oilers want to be.”

    The Toronto Raptors say no, Ralph.

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9068903/the-toronto-raptors-sportvu-cameras-nba-analytical-revolution

  22. delooper says:

    sliderule:
    What RK is saying is that even though Brown and Petrell can’t take a pass or give one they have poise that can only be measured by a coach.

    Is it impossible to imagine that regardless of how advanced your stats are, they can not measure things like the rate of change in some more subtle aspects of the game?

    Stats are nice and sometimes useful, but people have to make some attempt at being honest — they do not measure every aspect of the game.

    It seems like some fans get more shrill the *better* the Oilers do.

  23. Lois Lowe says:

    20 odd games into the season and the long knives are out for RK. Tough crowd.

  24. FrankenOil says:

    Komisarek on waivers as per Dreger. Take a flyer?

  25. tsunami says:

    dessert1111:
    I’ve watched a few Islanders games lately and Streit looks very slow. Not to mention he is getting old. I understand no one thinks he’s the future, but I wouldn’t want to give up anything more than something like Whitney or a 4th round pick for him at this point, neither of which will get it done. I hope they don’t target him.

    Agreed… And defensively he is very suspect to say the least… Read the other day he is looking for a 3 year deal :-O…

  26. knighttown says:

    I want to chime in on the Corsi debate that was happening the other day about Petrell and why anyone would possibly employ (let alone play) him. LT posted the relative Corsi chart and if you don’t recall it shows 4/14/93 up in the +25 range and 37 and co. down in the negative teens or 20′s.

    This is great info but I have an issue with a conclusion that is almost always drawn from this, that is, “We’ve got an amazing first line (Jacks and Kings) but the flotsam at the bottom (2′s and 3′s) are killing this team.”

    The perception is that Hall (for example) is playing Toews and Kopitar and showing a positive real corsi(!) meaning that this line is dominant already. What people seem to forget is that Hall doesn’t ONLY play against Kopitar. He gets a not-insignificant amount of ice against Colin Fraser and Antoine Roussel.

    If your top players (by EVTOI/game) aren’t showing a seriously positive real corsi you’re team is fucked. In fact, almost all top lines are well in the black by this metric. Toews certainly does face the Sedins, maybe even most often, but he also faces Jordan Schroeder and when he does he goes nuts I’m sure.

    On the flip side, Eric Belanger is posting a “shitty” real corsi. The consensus is that Belagner is getting his teeth kicked in by the Jarred Bolls of the world when in fact he may be even or slightly up against Boll (and his ilk) but when he gets stuck out against Jamie Benn he gets slaughtered.

    My point is this. You can’t simply compare Hall’s positive corsi to Belanger’s negative corsi and say 4 is doing his job and Belanger is failing. Almost every regular 4th liner and most 3rd liners (especially on below average teams) are posting negative corsis.

    I would think the typical real corsi distribution on an average NHL team would look like this:

    -Top 3 by EV TOI/game at +20, +17, +12
    -Next 3 by EV TOI/game at +16, +6, -2
    -3rd 3 by EV TOI/game at +5, -3, -8
    -Last half dozen forwards -6, -11, -12, -14, -20, -23

    I’d like someone like D’Arcy or PArkatti to create a “par-type system” depending on your placement in the lineup. For instance, how big of a deal is it that 83 and 89 are 4th and 5th in EV TOI but deep in the neagtive in real corsi when most Top 6 forwards on NHL teams are not? Is Belanger further below par than Hemsky?

  27. justDOit says:

    FrankenOil:
    Komisarek on waivers as per Dreger. Take a flyer?

    Tempting, but with 49 contracts on the list, and some US college UFAs out there, I doubt it. The Hords contract just keeps on giving.

  28. TheseColoursDontRun says:

    FrankenOil,

    People are freaking out about potentially paying Smid $4.5 mil next season, imagine how they’d react to Komisarek. I’d rather reason just re-sign Whitney to something less than 4.5, much less if possible. JMO

  29. BrazilianOil says:

    So a win tonight and a L by Dallas and tomorrow morning we are in play off spot, right ?

  30. justDOit says:

    TheseColoursDontRun,

    Ooh – he has one more year at $4.5M on his contract. I thought he was up this year. Yeah, I expect him to go through waivers untouched, considering next year’s $64M cap.

  31. justDOit says:

    Zach Boychuk also on waivers, but my memory of him being a good WHL player seems to be trumped by his lack of production anywhere else, his 5′ 10″ stature, and the fact that he’s no longer waiver exempt.

  32. TheseColoursDontRun says:

    justDOit,

    But the leafs will probably use their compliance buy-out on him this summer and you know tambo loves his reclamation projects.

  33. G Money says:

    lowetide sez::
    I think you’d be able to see positives in Corsi results over time, no? Either way, I understand the point he’s making and it certainly offers insight into his reasoning re: Yakupov in the third period.

    Ralph Krueger is a man with a plan.

    But the original contention that “its unmeasurable in statistics” kind of sums up the old school old boy “saw him good” methodology, doesn’t it?

    In the end, none of the qualities he mentions make a difference if they don’t show up at some point in the ultimate statistic – goals for and against. And if it shows up there, it should show up in some of the underlying statistics that we use to help predict GF/GA in the long run – like Corsi for example.

    Personally, I think the “unmeasurable” comment reflects the attitude that is preventing the Oilers from using those statistimatistics and related edujamacational artumfacts to make better decisions about who should be on the team, and on the ice, and when.

    hunter1909:
    Taylor Hall: The NHL’s secret superstar. Literally, a human rocket on skates.

    And by “literally”, you mean “figuratively”? :-)

  34. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Thiru,

    That’s exactly where analytics goes mainstream. If new tech can show the human eye what was done and predict what would have been better, then the tech can prove itself out as an trustworthy assistant coach. Once I trust your opinion on things I can see I can more easily try out your predictions on bigger changes in strategy.

    Interesting analytics on help defense. Would be great to see Oilers ghosts’ gap control.

  35. FrankenOil says:

    TheseColoursDontRun,

    justDOit,

    Yeah the extra year is a bit of a killer. Should the Leafs decide to waive (or trade) Liles, I’d probably jump all over it. $3.875 for the next 3 years for a puck moving d-man isn’t necessarily a terrible contract as he’d effectively replace Whitney at a shade less going forward.

  36. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    Great point about SJ looking to find Whitney and J. Schultz….Babcock was on the road and he was able to find Whitney on the ice with Datsyk a few times…

    The icetime of Petrell – I pointed out earlier the Incredible icetime Belanger was receiving for a good chunk of the year – and RK ‘ line matching makes me very nervious about RK.

    Can’t figure out how this SJ team can struggle so badly and yet own the oilers…

    Ex-GM – Brian Lawton says 2nd rounder could be had for Whitney right now…

  37. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy,

    I like the baseball way of following the standings as well.

    I prefer to use games back and games ahead though instead of percentages.

    That way it takes games played into consideration, and paints imo the clearest picture of the race.

    Today SJ sits in eighth, so if we call them Even, and go “games back” or “games ahead” it shows accurately just how close it is.

    From 3rd right down to 15th are still in it so as of right now it stands as follows.

    #3: LA +2.5 games ahead

    #4 Min +2

    #5: St L +1.5

    #6 Van +1.5

    #7 Det +1

    #8: SJ E

    #9: Dal -.5

    #10: Edm -1

    #11: Phx -1

    #12: Cbs -1

    #13: Cal -1.5

    #14 Nsh -2

    #15 Col -3

    I also believe the cutoff should be a little lower than expected as the top 2 teams are killing everybody, and there is no weak links that everybody is beating.

    Pretty much everybody other than maybe LA, and MIn will have to finish with a + .500 record to make it so really it just comes to to which teams finish strong.

    I am just happy that after 4 years we finally have a playoff race to watch.

  38. G Money says:

    knighttown:
    I’d like someone like D’Arcy or PArkatti to create a “par-type system” depending on your placement in the lineup.For instance, how big of a deal is it that 83 and 89 are 4th and 5th in EV TOI but deep in the neagtive in real corsi when most Top 6 forwards on NHL teams are not?Is Belanger further below par than Hemsky?

    Actually, Parkatti already does this, more or less. His post-game analysis (Game Notes) actually shows the corsi numbers player against player (shaded green and red for visual goodness) for all players on both teams. So you can quickly see who is beating up and who is getting beat up.

    Not surprisingly, Taylor Hall (figuratively, a human rocket on skates), tends to have a whole lot of green with only a few reds. He’s good no matter who he’s against. And e.g. Corey Potter and Ryan Whitney have a lot more red than green. More interestingly is results for guys like Yak and Gags, who tend to have really green numbers against some players and really red ones against others. In other words, they own some lines and get owned by others.

    That’s where line matching comes in, and one of the reasons why Krueger’s dismissal of statistics is problematic – his decision making in that regard is poor, and the poorness of those decisions might be obvious to him if he looked.

  39. justDOit says:

    TheseColoursDontRun,

    Oh – for next year? Sounds about right – Komisarek/Potter 2nd pairing…

  40. denny33 says:

    FrankenOil,

    Like Whitney – can’t skate at the NHL level.

  41. denny33 says:

    G Money,

    Agreed.

    However, to defend RK – for some reason Petrell does not stand out by sheer visuals.

    Ryan Whitney struggles against EVERYONE when he plays and it sometimes painful to watch in his own end…same with Belanger – 4th line players owned these players and it was EXTREMELY evident watching.

    I realize Petrell sometimes handles the puck like a grenade when trying to get it out…but his numbers are revealed by Parkatti were so bad they were shocking. ( Great work by Parkatti )

    They were so shocking – even an old school guy like me – has to call for dramatic change in usage by RK. You can’t allow Petrell to see that much critical icetime…

  42. FrankenOil says:

    If the Oilers were to claim Komisarek (from capgeek), our salary chart could look like the following:

    My Custom Lineup
    FORWARDS
    Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Shawn Horcoff ($5.500m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
    Ryan Smyth ($2.250m) / Ryan N.-Hopkins ($3.775m) / Ales Hemsky ($5.000m)
    Magnus Paajarvi ($1.551m) / Eric Belanger ($1.750m) / Nail Yakupov ($3.775m)
    Teemu Hartikainen ($1.001m) / Sam Gagner ($5.200m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)

    DEFENSEMEN
    Justin Schultz ($3.775m) / Nick Schultz ($3.500m)
    Jeff Petry ($1.750m) / Oscar Klefbom ($1.275m)
    Mark Fistric ($2.075m) / Ladislav Smid ($3.750m)
    Mike Komisarek ($4.500m) /
    GOALTENDERS
    Devan Dubnyk ($3.500m)
    Back-up ($1.200m)
    OTHER
    Buried: Ben Eager ($0.175m)

    Obviousl;y, this isn’t a potential lines and d-pairings but just a roster snapshot. This leaves us with 22 roster players with almost 6 million in cap space to fill out the blue and forwards.

  43. Lois Lowe says:

    Komisarek is TERRIBLE. He is not even Corey Potter or Theo Peckham at this point in his career.

  44. loosemoose says:

    How much better would Mike Babcock do? Claude Julien? Paul Maclean?

    Its gotta be the coach again, right?

  45. WeridAl says:

    LT I must be reading the wrong sports columns or listening to the wrong commentators, but the way I understand it, the trading dead line is a sellers market. Top 6 forwards will be at a premium, and the question of Hemsky’s health is not much of a question. I don’t think Hemsky is on the market, but if the right offer came along he would be traded. There is also a number of teams that need a PMD like Whitney, and his play has improved over the last 3-4 games, I would say at least a 2nd, remember Thomas Kaberle went for a 1st and a A prospect and his play wasn’t much better then Whitney’s. Fistric will most likely be traded, the Oilers will need room for either Marincin, who has looked good with the Barons, or Klefboom. Fistric will be wanting at least a 3yr contract and I don’t think the Oilers can afford that. The Oilers were lucky to get him for a 3rd and with the playoffs being more physical, Fistric should bring a 2nd. Teams like Pittsburgh, Philly, NJ, Montreal, St Louis, and TO all are in need of a big physical D.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    G Money,

    English is my 37th language. One must make allowances.

  47. hunter1909 says:

    steveb12344: I like the baseball way of following the standings as well.

    Why not just save time and follow the Red Sox instead?

  48. FrankenOil says:

    yeah, Komisarek sucks. Went to BTN and looked at his RelCorsi from last year and he was brutal.

  49. justDOit says:

    Off topic, but hilarious – Selanne on the Getz/Perry contracts:

    “If they can play eight more years, I can too. I’m in better shape than they are.”

  50. regwald says:

    denny33:
    Woodguy,

    Ex-GM – Brian Lawton says 2nd rounder could be had for Whitney right now…

    The quote was actually something like if they find the right situation they may be able to get up to a 2nd rounder, but a 3rd is more likely.

  51. Racki says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴: Racki

    I’m adding zero value here, but just wanted to say I love your screen name :)

  52. bluenotenorth says:

    FrankenOil,

    Check your math. You are well over the $64.3M cap and still short two forwards.

  53. striatic says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    About this J-Bow fantasy… what are the actual, legitimate chances we can get him?

    in a trade with the flames?

    zero.

    as a UFA?

    non-zero.

  54. bluenotenorth says:

    steveb12344,

    Your approach overlooks games in hand. For Col to catch SJ’s current point total, SJ would have 3 games in hand. Percentages gives a more representative rating.

  55. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=42106

    Ralphie pre-game

    Sounds like the same lineup as the other night. Belanger still not ready to go.

  56. B S says:

    justDOit:
    Off topic, but hilarious – Selanne on the Getz/Perry contracts:

    “If they can play eight more years, I can too. I’m in better shape than they are.”

    Love it. I don’t care that he makes our young superstars look like trash cans every time we play hm, as long as he can keeps doing it to everyone else in the league. Awesome guy.

    Re: Krueger, I’ll admit right now that I’ve liked Krueger since the Oilers hired him as Ass’t coach (I’ve payed attention to him since he and Gerber schooled us in Turino), just to clarify that I likely have a bit of a bias when I defend him. He’s taken a lot of flak among fans despite holding a team that is largely the same roster as last season within reach of the playoffs (I still expect them to finish 10th and will be disappointed with anything less). As Loosemoose mentioned, and people are quick to point out when it is convenient, this roster is less than impressive and it is hard to say whether another coach would do better with this group. It is also worth pointing out that Krueger is also tasked with A) developing the kids into a Power vs Power top line, and B) protecting two pro rookies at the same time as teaching them without a training camp, and few practices, while C) attempting to compete for a playoff spot in a conference without bottom feeders like Florida, Washington, and Buffalo for easy wins at the same time as he is D) attempting to implement a high speed, gap controlling hockey system in a shortened season. I’m just saying, cut the guy some slack for this season and most of next (if the Oilers aren’t in serious discussion for the playoffs next season hopefully mgmt and coaching will all take a hike). Basically Krueger is trying to force other teams to match him, some of them (like Babcock, but find me a coach Babcock can’t school, maybe Hitchcock and Maclean, MacT circa 2006), have done quite well, others have had a hard time. Remember, if you put your best lines out against Belanger, you leave your Dregs out against Hall. I think the emergence of Paajarvi has made this strategy all the more reasonable as it allows Krueger to hit with depth across 3 lines.

    With regards to his (and to an extent everyone’s) use of statistics, how many goals against has Petrell been on for this season (4 against at even strength, he is -3 on the season), especially GWG’s? This is an actual question, I’m not sure where I could look this up. Because for all you Corsi nuts, at the end of the day the only stats that matter in hockey are goals for, and goals against. As has been pointed out by previous posters over the last few threads, there are a number of factors that could explain discrepancies in Petrell’s stats. I already commented before that “random” is simply a matter of unknown variables, and it is possible that Krueger understands what those variables are. Krueger has already stated that he likes to employ specialists for various situations (PK, Defensive, Faceoff), rather than specific line matching.

    Using stats is both beneficial and dangerous. Stats, especially those collected over large spacial, demographic or temporal distances, can allow us to determine whether what we are observing is typical or exceptional. What they can’t tell us is why, we still have to determine why there is a difference (i.e. the discrepancy between Petrell’s corsi (as a proxy for consistent success against opposition) and his use by an experienced and seemingly intelligent coach) based on our own observations and reasoning. If a data point is exceptional because of one-off circumstances (these would be your “lucky” bounces, like a knuckle puck from center ice, or a Dman putting the puck in off his own goalie) you wouldn’t expect a repeat. If the exception is do to repeatable circumstances, or a permanent change in circumstances (such a change in confidence, or the system played by a team with a highly skilled Russian superstar), then you might expect that exception to persist.

    In Petrell’s case, if he is exhibiting a behaviour (solid gap control allowing outside shots, but no quality chances from the slot) that would produce a negative shot differential, while allowing few quality scoring chances (a stat Krueger has actually stated he uses, though how has not been determined), one would expect the anomalous stat to persist as long as the behaviour does.

    As a side not on this massive rant, I suspect that changes in player behaviour, typically in response to previous success (such as “don’t wait, just shoot more” when a player has a high shooting percentage (more shots at lower percentage opportunities)) are more responsible for the so-called “regression to the mean” than “puck luck”.

  57. steveb12344 says:

    bluenotenorth: steveb12344, Your approach overlooks games in hand. For Col to catch SJ’s current point total, SJ would have 3 games in hand. Percentages gives a more representative rating.

    No it doesn’t. It takes games in hand into account, and is exactly why it’s the best way to look at it.

    For example. After the Nsh. win the other night the Oilers were 1.5 games back of SJ for eighth. Sj’s loss made it -1 even though the point standings wouldn’t show it.

    After SJ lost, we as well as anybody who didn’t play all gained .5 on SJ. Teams that also played and won gained 1, and a loss meant Even, as it would be same as SJ.

    A bettman pt. is a push and means you stay the same (or in this case gained .5), as if u didn’t play.

  58. steveb12344 says:

    steveb12344,

    Simply put, all I did was use the same winning % numbers that WG posted and assigned “games ahead”, and “games back” to them to make it easier to read. If you check it they correlate perfectly.

    It just strikes me as easier to look at, then just seeing % numbers.

  59. Captain Obvious says:

    knighttown: I’d like someone like D’Arcy or PArkatti to create a “par-type system” depending on your placement in the lineup. For instance, how big of a deal is it that 83 and 89 are 4th and 5th in EV TOI but deep in the neagtive in real corsi when most Top 6 forwards on NHL teams are not? Is Belanger further below par than Hemsky?

    This is the worst idea I have ever heard. It is so bad I almost have no words for how bad it is. It reinforces the already existing idea that third line players have a different job than first line players and hence holds them to a lower standard. By holding them to a lower standard it supports the idea that you are losing because your best players aren’t good enough. Which, in turn, provides support for the idea that the way to get better is to replace your best players, when what you should be doing is replacing your worst players.

    Following your idea would provide a heuristic device which, if followed, would be guaranteed to make your team worse over time. So, once again: Worst. Idea. Ever.

  60. knighttown says:

    G Money: Actually, Parkatti already does this, more or less.His post-game analysis (Game Notes) actually shows the corsi numbers player against player (shaded green and red for visual goodness) for all players on both teams.So you can quickly see who is beating up and who is getting beat up.

    Not surprisingly, Taylor Hall (figuratively, a human rocket on skates), tends to have a whole lot of green with only a few reds.He’s good no matter who he’s against.And e.g. Corey Potter and Ryan Whitney have a lot more red than green.More interestingly is results for guys like Yak and Gags, who tend to have really green numbers against some players and really red ones against others.In other words, they own some lines and get owned by others.

    That’s where line matching comes in, and one of the reasons why Krueger’s dismissal of statistics is problematic – his decision making in that regard is poor, and the poorness of those decisions might be obvious to him if he looked.

    Yes but I’d like to see how Hall’s performance compares against other #1 EV TOI/game guys like Datsyuk and Toews.

    We think we need to upgrade our 4th line because it isn’t as good (no shit) as our 4th line but how does it compare to other 4th lines. We know the vast majority are black holes so what is a reasonable expectation?

    One of the oilogosphere bigshots (Willis maybe) commented in the preseason that our biggest weakness was first line centre. I haven’t seen that reported very often but my gut tells me he might be right. The gap between Nuge and Toews is bigger than any gap between Petrell and Antoine Roussel and likely is why we aren’t a very good team. Not picking on Nuge specifically…just an easy comparison. 83, 89, 64 also need to be looked at.

  61. knighttown says:

    Captain Obvious: This is the worst idea I have ever heard.It is so bad I almost have no words for how bad it is.It reinforces the already existing idea that third line players have a different job than first line players and hence holds them to a lower standard.By holding them to a lower standard it supports the idea that you are losing because your best players aren’t good enough.Which, in turn, provides support for the idea that the way to get better is to replace your best players, when what you should be doing is replacing your worst players.

    Following your idea would provide a heuristic device which, if followed, would be guaranteed to make your team worse over time.So, once again:Worst. Idea.Ever.

    No. The idea is to see why you are losing games. If you are able to recognize that your top 3 players are not as good as the Hawks top 3 players you don’t have to make the moronic leap that you’ve made and demand an upgrade on those top 3 players. You note the gap and make sure to upgrade somewhere when you can. A team like St. Louis likely does NOT have as good a top line as Tampa however they’d kill them in a best of seven because when they roll out Steen-McDonald-Tarasenko against TB’s 3rd line of Labrie-Killorn-Crombeen damage will be done.

    We’re both arguing for the same thing…better depth players. However, I’m arguing for it because our Top 6 are not yet dominant and you’re aruing for it because Lennert Petrell isn’t as good as Taylor Hall.

  62. godot10 says:

    Where has Krueger ever denigrated statistics. The guy quotes scoring chances at press conferences. Advanced stats guys use Corsi, because they typically don’t have the resources to tabulate scoring chances, and so use Corsi as a proxy for scoring chances. But arguably, scoring chances is a superior statistic.

    A coach can’t teach using statistics. Statistics are an analysis tool. One takes the insights derived from statistics, and then goes to the tape to find situational representational examples which one can use to teach the player. I actually don’t know if actually mentioning detailed statistics (other than scoring chances) to players is really helpful. Any sport is played situationally. You want the player to react situationally. Good statistics follow from doing the right thing in situationally.

    As for Kruger, or any coach, the test ultimately is, are the right player rising in the roster, and the right players sinking in terms of TOI and role based on performance (as partly gleaned from statistics).

    Some people seem upset that Krueger doesn’t line match enough. This is his first year. He is thinking bigger picture. He is trying to convince the players to believe and trust the system. You undermine that lesson as a coach if you obsess with line matching. The line matching will come after the system lessons are ingrained.

    Krueger is correct in the judgment that if the players play and trust the system, they will achieve their goal of making the playoffs. Will some really smart coaches like Babcock and Hitchcock take advantage of him in the short term? Yeah. Krueger thinks there is more to be gained by the Oilers defining their own game, than a micro game of tactics at this point. Once Krueger has the Oilers contending, or after he feels the system is second nature to the players, then the micro tactics will come out.

  63. Bank Shot says:

    Krueger is right isn’t he? We don’t have a current statistic that measures stuff like gap control.

    CORSI measures overall strength of a player/team not their defensive ability.

    Look at Nashville since the lockout. Minnesota was in the same boat during their Lemaire years. These teams almost always posted negative CORSI’s but were top half of the league in goals allowed, mostly in the top 10.

    They weren’t strong overall most years, but they were always capable defensively. This demonstrates that CORSI and strong defense aren’t neccesarily linked. The link between CORSI and offence however is very clear.

  64. Roughneck says:

    Being the vintage I am, Mr. Orr holds a very dear place in my heart.

    An irish malt shall grace my pallet this evening in celebration of his complete awesomeness.

    Perhaps Taylor Hall shall honour him with something sublime for a performance.

  65. denny33 says:

    knighttown,

    These are more than fair points – and what I was getting at when Nuge was stuck at 1 goal for a good chunk of the season. Again, before anyone comes down on me – I know he is really young and I know he is handling the D-side fairly well. But the gap between him and other 1st line centre’s is not insignificant. ( this year )

  66. justDOit says:

    Roughneck,

    Hall’s agent is Orr? I must have purged that from the ol memory bank(s) in favor of something more useful, such as Linday Lohan’s playboy pictures…

    Here’s to two great #4s!

  67. godot10 says:

    On the topic of Orr, Happy 65th Bobby!

  68. B S says:

    godot10,

    You nailed. I think Krueger’s line-matching and micromanaging chops will become more apparent in the playoffs, where simply rolling the lines won’t cut it. In 06′ MacT was exceptional at controlling the flow and balance in the game from the bench (having good depth also helps, but outside those playoffs that roster, even with Pronger, doesn’t match up against the Sharks or Red Wings), but couldn’t apply those tactics successfully during the regular season, stall tactics only work a few times before refs start cracking down on you for the rest of the season. Krueger will also spend a lot more time analyzing his opponent’s roster and systems, rather than the few hours he probably gets before each game during the season.

  69. justDOit says:

    godot10,

    Nice. This is the sort of stuff (RK) I come to LT for, and why the ‘just trade/fire soandso’ dialogue is getting so tired at other Oiler sites.

  70. hunter1909 says:

    Roughneck,

    I had a professor once and he’d drink during summer while watching baseball games, then would hit it hard whenever his team lost.

    Funny how you learn this stuff.

    Orr only 65? A 65 year old Orr has probably got to be at least whaaaat…number 6 D on the Oilers?

  71. pboy says:

    I didn’t expect to see any Oiler’s bloggers referenced when I was perusing Grantland today. Congrats to Tyler Dellow, Dennis King and Johnathon Willis.

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9074168/the-bake-shop-mailbag

  72. bluenotenorth says:

    steveb12344,

    While your relative ranking remains correct, the impression that COL is only 3 games back of SJ is misleading. COL would have to win 7 straigt to raise their 0.429 points performance rate enough to equal SJ’s current rate of 0.536 and tie them in actual points (assumng SJ maintains the same pace over those 7 games). COL being 7 back is a better reflection of the standings.

  73. justDOit says:

    Reports out of NY saying that Sather is to undergo surgery tomorrow for prostate cancer – hope it all goes well for him.

  74. Lucinius says:

    justDOit,

    I’m surprised cancer dared to bother Slats.

    Fucker was mean and nasty. His antics as a coach were both hilarious and a big reason the league imposed various rules (like, y’know, not tampering with the away team’s benches/areas — such as putting salt/sand on the floor to fuck up skates, vodka in water bottles [happened once, according to my grandfather who had season tickets behind the away team bench in that era] and others).

  75. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10,

    Nice post. I don’t always agree with what you say but that was spot on.

  76. justDOit says:

    Lucinius,

    It’s surprising that he would have sprung for the cost of vodka – seems white vinegar would be more his style. I remember the uproar when Sather wouldn’t allow the Flyers to see the Cup between periods in the ’87 game 7. Classic stuff.

    Now if KL was a prudent business man, he’d be on the phone to Jeff Gorton, Sather’s assistant, to see if there’s anything he can do to help out – like offer Peckham for a 2nd rounder.

  77. OilClog says:

    pboy,

    So glad I click this link, I’m stuck (well not really stuck) out here on the coast and none of these Canuckelheads understand what it is to be an Oiler fan.

  78. cabbiesmacker says:

    Quick prediction on tonights game.

    Oilers win walking away 7 – 1

    Petrell with the hattie

    Gagner destroys Thornton in a 2 minute knuckle duster

    Immediately following the game Logan Couture announces he’s fed up and demands a trade to Edmonton – ST analyzes the pros and cons

  79. OilClog says:

    Lucinius,

    Too easy to picture the crooked smile on Slats face while setting up his gamesmanship

  80. G Money says:

    cabbiesmacker:

    Immediately following the game Logan Couture announces he’s fed up and demands a trade to Edmonton – ST analyzes the pros and cons

    As long as he has poise and is good in the room, it should be OK.

  81. justDOit says:

    G Money,

    Maybe a quick call to Yzerman first…

  82. Woodguy says:

    Thiru: Regarding RK, you (and everyone, for that matter) should read the latest series on mc79. It is literally dynamite. The latest one (Defending Ralph IV) is just awesome. That guy should get a job with an NHL team.

    Also, I should point out that the Joe T scenario you envision is a somewhat peculiar prediction; Kreuger has said before that he prefers getting his D-matchup before the forward matchup, and also that, by QoC, Whitney plays the weakest opposition amongst the regular D.

    I call 5-2 Oilers!

    I think MIke did a good job defending his point.

    Tyler’s best point is that RK matches D pairings more than F lines and that 5-2 saw Dats the most.

    The more I think about it the more I think RK is thinking this:

    I have 1 Dpair that can handle tough comp.

    Against other teams I need to supplement the poorer D pair with the 10 line and run them against the 2nd best line to try to get a saw off against 1st and 2nd line.

    My problem with Krueger is this:

    1) 6 and 19 are horrid together, 15 and 19 were better and if he runs that then he has 1.5 D pairs and not just 1.

    2) 4-93-14 outshot tough comp earlier this year and just had bad puck luck in terms of scoring. Now that 10 is back you can run x-10-83 and expect them to hold their own as well. 91-89-64 are also very close to being above water.

    That gives you 3 lines that work and none need to be “hidden”, although you try to find the softest spot for 89′s line.

    Instead he loads up 4-10-83 and leaves x-93-14 needing the softest ice.

    So in my opinion he’s playing the Oilers a forward line short and 1/2 D pairing short by who he is playing with who.

    His Petrell thing is a minor irritant compared to his line combos that leave 1 top 3 line exposed if the other team has 2 decent line and a checking line, which is most teams.

    He doesn’t have a deep roster to begin with and I think he handicaps himself by loading up 4-10-83, mostly to the detriment of 93-14 who are killing it with 4 and floundering without him.

    10-83 are big boys and don’t need 4, 93 and 14 do.

  83. Lucinius says:

    OilClog,

    My grandfather had a ton of stories about the Oilers of those days. Many about Slats, some players, Peter Puck and a few about trainers and bitch-fests from opposing players/coaches.

  84. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: I think MIke did a good job defending his point.

    2) 4-93-14 outshot tough comp earlier this year and just had bad puck luck in terms of scoring.Now that 10 is back you can run x-10-83 and expect them to hold their own as well.91-89-64 are also very close to being above water.

    That gives you 3 lines that work and none need to be “hidden”, although you try to find the softest spot for 89′s line.

    Instead he loads up 4-10-83 and leaves x-93-14 needing the softest ice.

    10-83 are big boys and don’t need 4, 93 and 14 do.

    Nugent-Hopkins has been carrying a brutally heavy load during Horcoff’s injury. Krueger is just giving him some time to refresh himself before the final push, now that Horcoff is back.

    I expect Hall will be used much more tactically between those two lines pretty soon.

    Next time Harski gets a chance, he is going to have to seize the day, and send Jones packing for good. He is really, really close. I expect he would be better with Hemsky and Horc.

  85. G Money says:

    godot10:
    Where has Krueger ever denigrated statistics.

    A coach can’t teach using statistics.Statistics are an analysis tool.

    Good statistics follow from doing the right thing in situationally.

    As for Kruger, or any coach, the test ultimately is, are the right player rising in the roster, and the right players sinking in terms of TOI and role based on performance (as partly gleaned from statistics).

    Some people seem upset that Krueger doesn’t line match enough.This is his first year.He is thinking bigger picture.He is trying to convince the players to believe and trust the system.You undermine that lesson as a coach if you obsess with line matching.The line matching will come after the system lessons are ingrained.

    Krueger is correct in the judgment that if the players play and trust the system, they will achieve their goal of making the playoffs. Will some really smart coaches like Babcock and Hitchcock take advantage of him in the short term?Yeah.Krueger thinks there is more to be gained by the Oilers defining their own game, than a micro game of tactics at this point.Once Krueger has the Oilers contending, or after he feels the system is second nature to the players, then the micro tactics will come out.

    I agree with your first part about how statistics are to be used.

    What seems to be clear is that RK is NOT using them (whether he quotes them or denigrates them or not). I think talking about line matching and the big picture is misleading. Whether you line match or not, by eye or by calculator, players that are HORRIBLE and get owned by the opposition (whether playing the system or not) are out in situations they simply should not be.

    No matter what, if you’re thinking big picture and don’t care about micro-tactics, I want Yakupov out there in the third learning the system, not Petrell.

  86. godot10 says:

    G Money: I agree with your first part about how statistics are to be used.

    What seems to be clear is that RK is NOT using them (whether he quotes them or denigrates them or not).I think talking about line matching and the big picture is misleading.Whether you line match or not, by eye or by calculator, players that are HORRIBLE and get owned by the opposition (whether playing the system or not) are out in situations they simply should not be.

    No matter what, if you’re thinking big picture and don’t care about micro-tactics, I want Yakupov out there in the third learning the system, not Petrell.

    The Oilers don’t have enough good players. That is NOT Krueger’s fault. A coach has to work with the players he’s got. With basically the same group as Renney, I would argue Krueger is doing much better.

    As mc79 pointed out, in the Detroit game, Yakupov’s missed shifts were more due to the timing of those third period penalties than anything else, and who was rested and who wasn’t from the penalty kills.

  87. Gret99zky says:

    Lucinius:
    OilClog,

    My grandfather had a ton of stories about the Oilers of those days. Many about Slats, some players, Peter Puck and a few about trainers and bitch-fests from opposing players/coaches.

    This interests me. LT, book Lucinius’ grandfather on High Noon will ya? I’d tune in to hear some of those yarns.

    Edit: just read the words “had a ton of stories”. Better book Lucinius.

  88. Ribs says:

    Tweet Tweet….

    TSNRyanRishaug
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just walked out of the building and left in truck. Not feeling well, out tonite.

  89. Gret99zky says:

    No Nuge? oh no.

  90. justDOit says:

    Ribs:
    Tweet Tweet….

    TSNRyanRishaug
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just walked out of the building and left in truck. Not feeling well, out tonite.

    Well there go my plans for tonight – may as well catch up on some test reports. It’s times like this were organizational depth is key. Smyth for 2C?

  91. B S says:

    G Money,

    What if Yak is giving up prime scoring chances, while Petrell is not? Suddenly you’re down a goal and Yak’s confidence is hurting (he’s a competitor and he’ll be shaken if he cost the team a win). Some seasoning and a full training camp and I wouldn’t think twice about putting Yak out there; forget protecting a lead, he’ll be padding it, but at this stage he might be too high a risk.

    I also don’t think it’s clear whether RK is using advanced stats or not. He has a crap bottom of the roster, and is simultaneously trying to win games while keeping his players rested for both the long and short term. I think fans are reading way to much into a shortened season for a coach who had no training camp and few practices to teach his system, and who realizes that his young players need to learn how to play depending on situation, rather than constantly trying to match lines with deeper teams.

    If Krueger plays PvP he puts his top scoring lines out against the Thortons, Datsyuks, and Getzlafs of the league with little scoring depth to get that positive goal differential. If he gives his top lines marshmallows, he needs his bottom forwards (3rd and 4th lines) to shut down the oppositions best. As Knighttown has been saying, either we need to improve our top line (as good as they’ve been we all know the kids still need seasoning and that should be the solution) or improve our bottom depth. until we have the depth (Paajarvi has helped this signficantly) it doesn’t matter how Krueger deploys the lines.

    The management of TOI that I mentioned before is key to this. If you’re resting your best players/scorers, someone needs to be on the ice, and that has to be your depth forwards (the Petrells, Browns of the world). If you have a 1 goal lead you have to ask yourself, do I play Horcoff, Hall, Hemsky against Datsyuk, have him score on them, and then be stuck playing weaker forwards against Zetterberg trying to protect a tie or even regain the lead, or rest those forwards, risk a goal, but give myself a better chance regain the lead later.

    I haven’t always liked Krueger’s roster and deployment decisions, but they rarely seem to bite the Oilers in the ass (the Brown penalty that really got people up in arms about his deployments looked like a total joke and isn’t the player’s or the coach’s fault).

  92. DBO says:

    Nuge out? ouch. Doubt Hall goes to centre, so expect this maybe?

    Hall-Smyth-Eberle
    Jones-Horc-Hemsky
    Paajarvi-gagner-Yak
    Harsky-Petrell-Brown

  93. Lowetide says:

    Nuge out tonight. Well, damn. Flu

  94. Lowetide says:

    Nothing like being TENTH on your own damn blog with some news. BE BETTER!

  95. B S says:

    justDOit,

    Pffft, what kind of mickey mouse organization do you think this is? I bet Lander is already in town and ready to step up against Thorton.

  96. justDOit says:

    B S:
    justDOit,

    Pffft, what kind of mickey mouse organization do you think this is? I bet Lander is already in town and ready to step up against Thorton.

    On second thought, I’m feeling better about 94 at 2C… or maybe I’m getting the flu as well?

  97. spoiler says:

    Orr was golfing at Augusta today… Wonder if the Eagle was in that foursome.

  98. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Orr was golfing at Augusta today… Wonder if the Eagle was in that foursome.

    Hah! Classic line.

  99. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    I want to chime in on the Corsi debate that was happening the other day about Petrell and why anyone would possibly employ (let alone play) him.LT posted the relative Corsi chart and if you don’t recall it shows 4/14/93 up in the +25 range and 37 and co. down in the negative teens or 20′s.

    This is great info but I have an issue with a conclusion that is almost always drawn from this, that is, “We’ve got an amazing first line (Jacks and Kings) but the flotsam at the bottom (2′s and 3′s) are killing this team.”

    The perception is that Hall (for example) is playing Toews and Kopitar and showing a positive real corsi(!) meaning that this line is dominant already.What people seem to forget is that Hall doesn’t ONLY play against Kopitar. He gets a not-insignificant amount of ice against Colin Fraser and Antoine Roussel.

    If your top players (by EVTOI/game) aren’t showing a seriously positive real corsi you’re team is fucked.In fact, almost all top lines are well in the black by this metric.Toews certainly does face the Sedins, maybe even most often, but he also faces Jordan Schroeder and when he does he goes nuts I’m sure.

    On the flip side, Eric Belanger is posting a “shitty” real corsi. The consensus is that Belagner is getting his teeth kicked in by the Jarred Bolls of the world when in fact he may be even or slightly up against Boll (and his ilk) but when he gets stuck out against Jamie Benn he gets slaughtered.

    My point is this.You can’t simply compare Hall’s positive corsi to Belanger’s negative corsi and say 4 is doing his job and Belanger is failing.Almost every regular 4th liner and most 3rd liners (especially on below average teams) are posting negative corsis.

    I would think the typical real corsi distribution on an average NHL team would look like this:

    -Top 3 by EV TOI/game at +20, +17, +12
    -Next 3 by EV TOI/game at +16, +6, -2
    -3rd 3 by EV TOI/game at +5, -3, -8
    -Last half dozen forwards -6, -11, -12, -14, -20, -23

    I’d like someone like D’Arcy or PArkatti to create a “par-type system” depending on your placement in the lineup.For instance, how big of a deal is it that 83 and 89 are 4th and 5th in EV TOI but deep in the neagtive in real corsi when most Top 6 forwards on NHL teams are not?Is Belanger further below par than Hemsky?

    Those are good questions. While I lack the ability to createa “par-type” system, I’ll try to explain why I think what I think.

    First off the biggest problem with looking at corsi for individuals is trying to remove the effect of their line mates.

    They best way that I know of is to look at their WOWYs but in small samples (like 26 games) the times spent together and/or away can be very small and weird results can abound.

    Just think about Hall and Eberle for a second.

    Hall is ZA (Zone adjusted, I always used zone adjusted corsi for to remove the zone start effects) CF% is 51.1% this year.

    Eberle’s is 50.9%. Pretty similar.

    Together their CF% is 53.2%, Pretty good.

    However Hall away from Eberle is 45.8% and Eberle is 46.8% Sum is greater than the parts/Synergy? Or is that Hall is the best LW on the team so that when Eberle is away from him, his numbers suffer and vice versa?

    You need to look at a few different WOWYs to make a more accurate guess as to who’s driving the bus.

    That’s why looking at top 4-5 common Forward line mates helps flesh that out more.

    Common thinking these days is that corsi is affected most by:

    1) Line mates
    2) Zone starts
    3) Competitors

    In fact, some guys are finding the competition factor to be almost irrelevant as the best players see the same best players from other teams, so it all kinda washes out, except for the bottom of the order who are the only lines that get any real “shelter”

    That being said:

    Relative Corsi

    Relative Corsi is the the player’s corsi ON minus their corsi OFF. It shows how they do relative to the team when they are not on the ice.

    This allows to compare players from team to team without punishing them too much for being a good team or boost them too much for being on a bad team.

    Like you pointed out, if Hall is your best player, everyone who doesn’t play with him will pale in comparison.

    It doesn’t do this to too much an extreme though, unless you have good players on a bad team, like the Oilers.

    Let’s look at the Oilers vs LAK. for an comparison.

    I like to us stats.hockeyanalysis.coms’ Zone Adjusted Corsi For% as it give more meaning that straight Corsi numbers from BTN, but I’ll put that in too:

    LAK

    Player Name CF%
    WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 0.649
    KOPITAR, ANZE 0.633
    BROWN, DUSTIN 0.612
    PENNER, DUSTIN 0.584
    CARTER, JEFF 0.576
    CLIFFORD, KYLE 0.575
    LEWIS, TREVOR 0.575
    STOLL, JARRET 0.558
    KING, DWIGHT 0.546
    RICHARDS, MIKE 0.549
    FRASER, COLIN 0.507
    NOLAN, JORDAN 0.474

    Best out shooting team in hockey, only 1 player below 50% and just

    Straight Corsi for LAK (not zone start adjusted)

    NAME Corsi On
    JUSTINWILLIAMS 36.99
    ANZEKOPITAR 32.8
    DUSTINBROWN 27.29
    JEFFCARTER 18.75
    KYLECLIFFORD 13.01
    MIKERICHARDS 12.9
    DUSTINPENNER 12.83
    TREVORLEWIS 11.52
    DWIGHTKING 9.37
    JARRETSTOLL 6.88
    COLINFRASER 1.85
    JORDANNOLAN -2.3

    Relative Corsi

    NAME Corsi Relative
    JUSTINWILLIAMS 29.2
    ANZEKOPITAR 23.6
    DUSTINBROWN 15.6
    JEFFCARTER 3.1
    DUSTINPENNER -1.3
    KYLECLIFFORD -4.3
    MIKERICHARDS -4.8
    TREVORLEWIS -6.6
    DWIGHTKING -8.6
    JARRETSTOLL -12.8
    COLINFRASER -18.7
    JORDANNOLAN -23.5

    So while a guy like Stoll is outshooting, relative to his team mates, the team is worse off when he’s on the ice because guys like Kopitar or Carter will be out there.

    Makes Stoll look worse than he is.

    EDM Zone Adjusted CF%

    Player Name CF%
    HALL, TAYLOR 0.511
    EBERLE, JORDAN 0.509
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 0.496
    HARTIKAINEN, TEEMU 0.479
    HORCOFF, SHAWN 0.483
    PAAJARVI, MAGNUS 0.457
    YAKUPOV, NAIL 0.445
    HEMSKY, ALES 0.444
    GAGNER, SAM 0.434
    SMYTH, RYAN 0.429
    BROWN, MIKE 0.394
    BELANGER, ERIC 0.393
    JONES, RYAN 0.362
    VANDEVELDE, CHRIS 0.357
    EAGER, BEN 0.356
    PETRELL, LENNART 0.334

    Awful.

    Straight Corsi

    TAYLORHALL 4.32
    JORDANEBERLE 3.11
    RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS -0.88
    MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON -7.69
    SHAWNHORCOFF -8.97
    TEEMUHARTIKAINEN -9.15
    NAILYAKUPOV -11.02
    ALESHEMSKY -12.68
    SAMGAGNER -13.86
    RYANSMYTH -17.83
    MIKEBROWN -19.17
    RYANJONES -22.9
    ERICBELANGER -25.63
    CHRISVANDEVELDE -27.96
    BENEAGER -35.33
    LENNARTPETRELL -37.03

    Relative Corsi

    TAYLORHALL 23.4
    JORDANEBERLE 22.6
    RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS 16.7
    MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON 5.5
    SHAWNHORCOFF 1.6
    NAILYAKUPOV 1.4
    TEEMUHARTIKAINEN -0.6
    ALESHEMSKY -1.3
    SAMGAGNER -2.5
    RYANSMYTH -7.3
    RYANJONES -8.7
    MIKEBROWN -10.7
    CHRISVANDEVELDE -16.7
    ERICBELANGER -18.9
    LENNARTPETRELL -28.2
    BENEAGER -28.3

    So looking at Hall for instance.

    If you looked at CF% he’s only just ahead of Fraser (!)

    If you looked at straight Corsi its the same thing.

    If you looked at Relative Corsi he’ up near the top.

    Notice also that the bottom of the Oiler roster doesn’t look as bad relative to their shitty team mates as they do for straight corsi.

    So I think RelCor does a decent job taking team effects out and allowing you to compare players across teams.

    Hall is a very good player who plays on a team that gets terribly out corsi’d most games.

    Petrell is a very poor player who plays on a team that gets terribly out cori’d most games.

    NOTE:

    Just read this and its terribly incomplete, but its dinner time. So it is what it is.

  100. MrSmitty says:

    Dammit Nuge you have doomed us. Smitty center on the top line? This is going to be ugly.

  101. justDOit says:

    MrSmitty:
    Dammit Nuge you have doomed us.Smitty center on the top line?This is going to be ugly.

    Flu-in’ for Drouin?

  102. Woodguy says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴: НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴

    Interesting that you use those terms.

    Some fancystat consultants are finding the most success with assistant coaches eating up all the optimal in combos and zone start stuff.

    They recognize the usefulness of the data to give them new things to look for when watching their players and they also recognize the limitation of what they see at ice level and appreciate the data sets.

    I think that’s where fancystats fits into a pro org.

    Another take on what is happening on the ice for the coaches.

    Another take how other players are playing for the pro procurement dept.

    Orgs like CHI understand that having a data set where the player is on the ice for 1000 shot attempts is probably deeper in info than a scout watching 6-8 games.

    The scout can look for things the numbers miss (battle level, take a pass, give a pass), but the fancystats can help point to which players to look at.

    Others don’t look at it at all.

  103. VanOil says:

    Sharks get to face the Oilers with only two centers dressing. Our “B” team at best.

    TSN is using Miller and Ferraro on the Leafs game. So we are getting there “B” team at best.

    Thank goodness our dear leaders in management took time during the season to address our glaring weakness in toughness and grit. The glare could have been coming from the burning sun like whole that is our depth at center.

    At this point I am hoping they dress big Teddy Peckham as our #1 center because if your going run a clown college you may as well commit. Idiots.

  104. Ice Sage says:

    Ribs:
    Tweet Tweet….

    TSNRyanRishaug
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just walked out of the building and left in truck. Not feeling well, out tonite.

    So disappointing…
    he drives A TRUCK?

  105. Kris11 says:

    I’d run with this, with no Nuge and no Belanger:

    Hall-Gagner-Eberle
    Yakupoz-Horcoff-Hemsky
    MPS-Smyth-Hartikainenenen
    Brown-Petrell/DoubleShift-Jones

    I’d sit the 4th line for the third period if the game is at all close and maybe give Jones or Petrell a shift here or there just to rest the other guys, and in the first two periods, I might double shift Horc or Gagner in for Petrell at C on that 4th line just to minimize the time that Petrell sees at C.

    I’d tell that 3rd line to play like they’re PK’ing and hope to win the game with the top 6 and on special teams. IMO, MPS can help cover for Smyth to make that a decent line in puck possession, and if they could get the puck low, they could cycle really well.

    Hall carries the first line even against the Sharks better players. And Horcoff can make sure his line holds its own, too.

    Actually, who needs RNH?

  106. Lowetide says:

    Hall-Hall-Hall
    Hall-Hall-Hall
    Hall-Hall-Hall
    Hall-Hall-Hall

    Looks good.

  107. Ribs says:

    Ice Sage: So disappointing…
    he drives A TRUCK?

    Would it make you feel any better if it had custom Oilers seats? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWEzDmLRzBs&list=UUSjha4Eutk-CmRYgxCT-a_g&index=7

  108. Lucinius says:

    No RNH makes this game more…. interesting?

  109. Lowetide says:

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug 13s

    In warmup, Smyth centres Eberle and Jones, Petrell centres Brown and Hartikainen.

  110. Lowetide says:

    23s

    “@EdmontonOilers:#Oilers lines: Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky, Jones-Smyth-Eberle, Paajarvi-Gagner-Yakupov, Brown-Hartikainen-Petrell” Don’t like this

  111. Ribs says:

    The Persistent Black Hole line. Sweet. http://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/PBH

  112. Lucinius says:

    Lowetide:
    23s

    “@EdmontonOilers:#Oilers lines: Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky, Jones-Smyth-Eberle, Paajarvi-Gagner-Yakupov, Brown-Hartikainen-Petrell” Don’t like this

    Ah…..

    Wow.

    Nights like tonight I really wish you only had to ice three lines.

  113. justDOit says:

    Lowetide:
    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug 13s

    In warmup, Smyth centres Eberle and Jones, Petrell centres Brown and Hartikainen.

    Scotch please – or maybe Irish whiskey tonight?

  114. VanOil says:

    Ribs:
    The Persistent Black Hole line. Sweet. http://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/PBH

    Prefect an indicator of neuronal loss.

  115. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot:
    Krueger is right isn’t he? We don’t have a current statistic that measures stuff like gap control.

    CORSI measures overall strength of a player/team not their defensive ability.

    Look at Nashville since the lockout. Minnesota was in the same boat during their Lemaire years. These teams almost always posted negative CORSI’s but were top half of the league in goals allowed, mostly in the top 10.

    They weren’t strong overall most years, but they were always capable defensively. This demonstrates that CORSI and strong defense aren’t neccesarily linked. The link between CORSI and offence however is very clear.

    Corsi, not CORSI. Its not an acronym.

    Corsi describes puck possesion.

    As far as decribing offence ands defence the only thing you could say is that when you have a corsi event in your favour you might score and its highly unlikey you’ll get scored against.

  116. justDOit says:

    Lucinius,

    Or two.

  117. Henry says:

    I found it interesting that Krueger couldn’t find fancy stats that would give him insights into things like gap control.

    Maybe this is what Ross Johnson would call a brilliant glimpse of the obvious (or already compiled) but some things that could correlate well with a player that is good with his gaps (and cycle breaking / first pass / goodness) might be looking at events corresponding to sorties with offsides counting as a zero with 1 zone entry. Something like this:

    (1)Shots against / zone entries against

    (2)Shots attempted / zone entries against

    (3)Goals against / zone entries against

    The stat that would show the quality of a guy like the current Smid would be (1) divided by (2). This stuff could help analysis on offense for or defense against. The best players should be efficient.

  118. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy,

    Could be one of the best posts here on this blog.

  119. Ribs says:

    Woodguy: Corsi, not CORSI. Its not an acronym.

    But if it was…”Cooperative Society for Radio and TV in the Italian-speaking Switzerland)” http://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/CORSI

  120. Lowetide says:

    We’re a couple of minutes in, Oilers have had a good part of the play so far, but they’ve iced the puck.

  121. Rebilled says:

    Trade Mike Johnson.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Man that would have been sweet if Gagner could have cashed.

  123. Lucinius says:

    Sigh, Gagner. At least hit the net with that!

  124. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    23s

    “@EdmontonOilers:#Oilers lines: Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky, Jones-Smyth-Eberle, Paajarvi-Gagner-Yakupov, Brown-Hartikainen-Petrell” Don’t like this

    Adam Hall was +8/-8 Even in Corsi events in his first game as CAR 4C.

    Good thing the Oilers have one of their 50 contracts tied up in Cameron Abney and couldn’t add Hall.

    Assholes.

    Well RK made his rep on taking David Swiss against Goliath CAN/USA/RUS etc.

    Hope he wrings that out of them tonight.

  125. VanOil says:

    Faceoffs % tonight might make us miss Cogleano. Paajarvi at center there looked good. He has the wheels going tonight.

  126. Woodguy says:

    Strudwick could beat Doug Murray in a race.

    s

  127. icecastles says:

    Shoooooot, you bunch of Hemskys!

  128. Gret99zky says:

    they miss the Nuge on the PP.

  129. Lucinius says:

    I miss our good powerplay.

    Edit: To be more specific; the Oilers are telegraphing almost every pass on the powerplay which is the problem.

  130. fuzzy muppet says:

    Refusing to shoot….this team pisses me off

  131. VanOil says:

    Lucinius:
    I miss our good powerplay.

    Don’t worry Is Mental will be on our power play by the 3d.

  132. Derek says:

    Can’t believe Fistric got away with that mugging on Thornton behind the net. I don’t mind it, but I can’t believe it.

  133. Lucinius says:

    If the Oilers want to win tonight they’ll need the powerplay to start cashing.

  134. Rebilled says:

    Is Cherry-Pickin’Jones the name of an old blues guy?

    These Sharks are not enjoying this pace. Good stuff thus far except for the holes in the sticks.

  135. Lowetide says:

    That Fistric shift against Thornton gets him a 2-year deal by Saturday.

  136. icecastles says:

    So far, Oilers playing like they want to win, and San Jose playing like they don’t want to lose. A good thing.

    And there it is! Beauty.

  137. Lowetide says:

    Gagner (Whitney, Yakupov)

  138. BlacqueJacque says:

    Gagner really has worked on his shot this past year.

    Yak with one of those blistering passes that Gagner recovers. Under-rated passer, that Nail.

  139. Rebilled says:

    Really good stuff.

  140. fuzzy muppet says:

    See what happens when you shoot??

    What is Gagner going to get??

  141. BlacqueJacque says:

    Jones-Smyth-Eberle had a nice shift.

  142. Lucinius says:

    Well, we needed that goal. Now we need another four.

  143. BlacqueJacque says:

    Gagner’s going to ask for Taylor Hall/Jordan Eberle money – $6m/year. Gagner is either going to get that, or a 2-year $4m contract that takes him to UFA.

  144. icecastles says:

    Come on, Harti: let San Jose play too.

  145. hunter1909 says:

    icecastles,

    lol

    Eberle’s playing great tonight, now that he’s finally shut of that lousy rotten RNH.

  146. Lucinius says:

    icecastles,

    He showed shades of Laraque on that shift. Even had the ‘eventually fall down and send it into the Oiler zone’ part down.

  147. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers smell blood, Sharks goalie’s going to get run off the ice soon ha ha .

  148. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    icecastles,

    Harti wouldn’t even let the Sharks clear the puck for themselves.

  149. hunter1909 says:

    Anyone know the last time Oilers actually attacked the other team? 1990?

    This is great hockey.

  150. hunter1909 says:

    Me and my big mouth. :P

  151. Derek says:

    Oh dear lord. The Oilerist of goals against.

  152. BlacqueJacque says:

    Gags giveth, and Gags taketh away.

  153. Lucinius says:

    Gagner giveth.. Gagner taketh away.

  154. Woodguy says:

    Sam giveth, Sam taketh away.

    Losing your check because you are watching the puck shouldn’t happen in your 5th year.

  155. Woodguy says:

    Looks like I had a pretty original thought.

  156. hunter1909 says:

    Sharks are big and skilled, ffs. They’re going to kill these idiots, as usual.

  157. Rebilled says:

    Did Brown just hit Harski?

  158. icecastles says:

    You have to admire 89′s swagger. The way he toys with his opponents, giving them a free goal so they feel like they actually have a chance.

    Sam Gagner, you are a cruel, cruel man.

  159. Lucinius says:

    Rebilled,

    And a Shark.

    Looks like he’s giving out lessons of how to hit Harski,

  160. PunjabiOil says:

    Is Ralph allergic to line matching?

  161. squeezboks says:

    Surprise surprise. When the 4th line is on the ice, Thorton line shows up. Where are we again?

  162. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers scrambling around now.

  163. VanOil says:

    Lay off Sam, Nuge just puked on his downstairs couch.

  164. hunter1909 says:

    Eberle must be channelling his inner Guy Lafleur tonight.

  165. leadfarmer says:

    RK, please take notice of what the rest of us have noticed. 89 and 6 should never be on the ice together, unless you want unmarked players in your crease.

  166. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    I like him, I just wish we didnt have 4 other bottom pairing defensemen.

  167. Lucinius says:

    Shot clock is wrong, I think. We had more than five shots by my recollection.

  168. VanOil says:

    Rexall Ice looks like Tampa Bay in June. I hope they get the new barn built soon. A skating team has no advantage with that slop.

  169. Captain Happy says:

    What Sam taketh, he also gives away.

  170. dessert1111 says:

    Since RNH is out and they have last change, I’d like to see Gagner with Hall and Eberle. I guess Horcoff with Hemsky and Yakupov and Smyth with Jones and Paajarvi or something like that.. Although the Smyth Jones Eberle line did have a decent cycle going on for awhile, Eberle shouldn’t be playing with fourth line players, especially one who is out of position.

  171. Ribs says:

    hunter1909:
    Eberle must be channelling his inner Guy Lafleur tonight.

    He’s got his edges going tonight. I’ll say he pops one.

  172. Gerta Rauss says:

    If someone could post Dennis’ scoring chances that would be appreciated. Shot clock favours the Sharks but I thought the period was closer than that by my eye.

  173. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    Re: your comment on Krueger line combos.

    Well said, sir.

  174. Lowetide says:

    I’ll just throw out there that the SJ goal was the result of a really poor puck retrieval on the part of the Oilers. To my eye, Gagner won the faceoff, lost sight of the result, and then turned the wrong way before picking up the puck late.

    The key for me is what the other Oilers did on the play.

    jmo.

  175. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    If someone could post Dennis’ scoring chances that would be appreciated. Shot clock favours the Sharks but I thought the period was closer than that by my eye.

    Yeah, agreed. tsn had it something like 6-2 midway through the period, I’d bet it tightened so will guess 6-4.

  176. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ll just throw out there that the SJ goal was the result of a really poor puck retrieval on the part of the Oilers. To my eye, Gagner won the faceoff, lost sight of the result, and then turned the wrong way before picking up the puck late.

    The key for me is what the other Oilers did on the play.

    jmo.

    I think Whitney was the guy beat to the puck off of Gagner’s faceoff win. I would have to see the replay again though.

  177. icecastles says:

    Gerta Rauss: If someone could post Dennis’ scoring chances that would be appreciated. Shot clock favours the Sharks but I thought the period was closer than that by my eye.

    Oilers were superior in terms of zone time and possession, but they had shockingly few shots or even attempted shots throughout the period. 5 seems entirely possible.

  178. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: The key for me is what the other Oilers did on the play.

    They stood still like a forest of trees, while Dubnyk flopped down the ice looking like Courtney Love; as if to say “I’m ready”.

  179. icecastles says:

    Craig Button: “I think the key word is, ‘yes they should have found something’.”

    When it comes to insight, he’s apparently a quantity over quality guy.

  180. Lowetide says:

    Dennis King ‏@DKingBH 23s

    1st period chances: 7-5; 1-0 ST

  181. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide,

    Whitney can’t skate. He does add offence that this teams desperately needs on the back end.

    Trade him and get into the top five already.

  182. Gret99zky says:

    Dennis King‏@DKingBH1m
    1st period chances: 7-5; 1-0 ST

    LT beat me to it.

    Can’t see that whiff by Gags can you?

  183. hunter1909 says:

    1-1 isn’t the best score, but I doubt if anyone’s complaining about this team’s compete level tonight.

    Hemsky’s got a pretty decent shot.

  184. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, agreed. tsn had it something like 6-2 midway through the period, I’d bet it tightened so will guess 6-4.

    Fearthfin (SJS blog) had it 6-5 for SJS

    6-4 5v5
    0-1 5v4

  185. tcho says:

    Just caught up on PVR. Oilers looked like they had the better of the play by eye, SOG tells a different story… I wonder what King will rate the scoring chances?

    I’m staying positive tonight!

    *clapclap*

  186. Woodguy says:

    gcw_rocks:
    Woodguy,

    Re: your comment on Krueger line combos.

    Well said, sir.

    Appreciated sir.

  187. Lowetide says:

    I think the 2 things we’re seeing are:

    1. The Oilers blue is really damaged
    2. San Jose isn’t a very good team

  188. Lowetide says:

    And Havlat is a dummy.

  189. Lucinius says:

    Yay Havlat!

  190. VanOil says:

    Must say I think Havlat had a right to be hot. The calls have favored the Oilers tonight for a change. Hopefully we make them payoff.

  191. Gerta Rauss says:

    2,2, and a 10 minute misconduct for slamming the penalty box door. Wow. 40 years of watching NHL hockey on TV and I don’t recall ever seeing anything like that.

  192. Lucinius says:

    Oilers get out-manned on the powerplay.

    Wonderful.

  193. Rebilled says:

    VanOil,

    These are the best refs ever.

  194. leadfarmer says:

    That was stupid. Sharks should bench him for a game. Unfortunately we are a perimeter team even on a pp.

  195. BlacqueJacque says:

    Refs ignore blatant trip. Maybe they’re having remorse?

  196. leadfarmer says:

    Smyth must of given 91 one of his sticks.

  197. Lucinius says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    I have. Its happened a couple times this season, actually. Refs got the order to clamp down on ref abuse by players this year. Supposedly it was getting really bad and players were invoking their families in their tirades.

  198. Lucinius says:

    Back to the sucky powerplay, I see.

    Perfect opportunity to get the lead back and we’re going to squander it.

  199. BlacqueJacque says:

    Buddy in the leather jacket trying so hard not to stare.

  200. Gret99zky says:

    Damn. Get well soon, Nuge.

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