THE STRANGE CASE OF LENNART PETRELL

I’m a fan of the Finns. Finnish hockey players are a delight–strong, creative, driven, skilled, tough–it’s like there’s another Saskatchewan or Northern Ontario across the pond to provide plug and play hockey men for all 30 NHL teams.

My first favorite Finn was Risto Siltanen, built like a brick outhouse and boasting a shot that could damage steel–and with a Finnish twist in that he could not shoot straight for the life of him. I was sad the day they traded him, but the Oilers had Kurri and soon Tikkanen and on and on and on and on.

In Edmonton Oiler hockey terms, things go better with Finns.

Petrell is a terrific penalty killer by eye and coach Krueger uses him in the “veteran” situations–the Pisani situations–during the 3rd period of tight games. And math is SCREAMING that it’s a bad idea:

CORSI 5X5 OILERS FORWARDS

corsi mar19

 

In terms of Corsi ON, Petrell ranks #440 out of 440 forwards who have played 5 or more games this season. His 4×5 numbers are no screaming hell either, but these minutes he plays 5×5 are galling because the Oilers are going the wrong way with this player and no one seems to know among the coaching staff and managers.

During the Nashville game, Petrell played 5 first period shifts, 4 second period shifts and then 8 shifts in the third period. Now, much of that was PK duty, but it does seem to be a trend:

petrell game

 

At the same time, coach Krueger was cutting back on playing time for Nail Yakupov as the game went on:

yakupov game

 

His final shift of the game came at the halfway point of the third period, and Petrell would see the ice 6 more times after Yakupov was done for the evening.

WHAT THE HELL?

watson

 

I have no quarrel with Krueger sitting the rookie during the third period of close games–that makes complete sense to me. Yakupov does some unusual, creative things and if they don’t work NHL players will send the puck to the back of the Oiler net in a heartbeat.

Having said that, math suggests THE LAST PERSON ON EARTH you’d want to replace Yakupov with is Lennart Petrell!

I have to say this is very disconcerting. How many games will this cost? Don’t know. It’s a bad idea according to math, and math is shouting it from the rooftops.

The fact that that Oilers can’t hear suggests to me they are not looking at advanced stats properly.

standings mar 19

 

The standings are a laugh riot unless you’re emotionally involved, and of course I’m emotionally involved. There’s no such thing as a sure thing outside of Chicagoland and Disneyland, and for the Oilers winning is the only cure to staying out of the lottery. That’s how I feel.

I have friends who are diehard Oiler fans and are aghast at my views. They feel this is the exact right moment to dive, dive, dive and ‘take meth for Seth’ or ‘break bones for Jones’ in an effort to get one more #1 overall.

I’m out on that one. I just can’t cheer for a team that actively pursues losses. It runs counter to the laws of sportmanship. The Edmonton Oilers 12-13 owe it to the credibility of the game to push for the second season.

These last several years have been a mockery bordering on farce.

The Edmonton Oilers, the Taylor Hall Edmonton Oilers, need to stand and deliver.

I believe they will.

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89 Responses to "THE STRANGE CASE OF LENNART PETRELL"

  1. Woodguy says:

    Is Mental.

  2. Ray says:

    but but but… he has poise!

  3. Smarmy says:

    Hard to stand tall when management makes all the wrong decisions.

  4. godot10 says:

    I think the Oilers can make the playoffs, or just miss the playoffs, and still draft a nice centre.

    That said, I still trade Whitney at the deadline. I still trade Jones at the deadline. And if anyone wants Belanger, I trade Belanger at the deadline.

  5. Racki says:

    I guess when the stats are that heavily imbalanced against a player, you have to take notice. I like Petrell because he works hard every shift and is an “energy” guy, but I’d started to see it a bit more this year (than usual) that our bottom line is horrible. I’m not surprised to find any of the bottom four guys in the bottom four… expected more of Ryan Jones though.

    I do think though that a lot of shifts the goal our bottom six lines (up until Horcoff came back and we grew an NHL-caliber 3rd line) have played was not so much to pepper the opposition goalie with shots (the basis of corsi, of coursi…), but rather to pin the opposition in their zone. When you watch closely, you’ll notice that’s really what they seem to try to do.. so in that sense, it’s natural that their corsi would be lower… as they aren’t generating a lot of shots to swing the balance their way.

    That said though, I’m definitely not making excuses.. I don’t like that this is the main goal of our 4th line either. I have referred to our bottom six lines as “stall tactics” lines. Basically they’re out there to just hang in there while our top six rests up. I hate it. I want some guys that can play hockey, push the puck the other way, generate chances and score goals when we need hard working goals. I feel our top 3 lines that we had last game are capable of this, but we still have a 4th line that doesn’t do much aside from kill time (although I consider myself a fan of the high-flying, hard hitting/fighting game Mike Brown brings).

  6. godot10 says:

    godot10:
    I think the Oilers can make the playoffs, or just miss the playoffs, and still draft a nice centre.

    That said, I still trade Whitney at the deadline.I still trade Jones at the deadline.And if anyone wants Belanger, I trade Belanger at the deadline.

    But I also would look to add at the deadline.

  7. Bar_Qu says:

    I am a convert to the cause of advanced stats, and from all the trends I have been reading about and seeing I believe all teams will use them to guide personnel decisions (if they don’t already). It is honestly as simple as using videotape to review games (thank you St. Roger).

    Having said that, I still believe in the coach’s perception of player effectiveness – whatever that is based on (practise performance, comfort level, etc). This is the second year in the row Petrell has been given a big role and by a totally different coach. I can stand back and criticise, but I also need to be aware of my limitations in understanding what a coach does.

    I imagine if we were to parse Babcock’s personnel decisions we would find some anomalies to what we see as accepted wisdom of player deployment. But he is a great coach.

    Until such a time as the Oilers see fit to remove Petrell from the line-up and give Pajaarvi his minutes, I will watch (with some disbelief at times) RK’s use of said player.

  8. bookje says:

    I don’t think the Oilers management cares about Fancy Stats.

  9. Henry says:

    For a while we’ve been discussing which star forward can stay or go for a top pair defenseman. Would any of you trade next year’s first for a good good defenseman in an effort to win this season and push the rebuild? I’m not sure how I feel about it.

  10. Bos8 says:

    If I’m not mistaken, the OIlers are last in FO percentage. The screaming need is for a quality center.

  11. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: and no one seems to know among the coaching staff and managers.

    indeed.

  12. Bar_Qu says:

    Henry:
    For a while we’ve been discussing which star forward can stay or go for a top pair defenseman.Would any of you trade next year’s first for a good good defenseman in an effort to win this season and push the rebuild?I’m not sure how I feel about it.

    I would trade next year’s first, but not this year. There is just too much to suggest that the Oil will pick somewhere in the 15th range and there are good players going to be available there – and the Oil need good players for depth. But next year the draft pick should be in the 20′s in a weaker year. Give that up, not this year.

  13. Woodguy says:

    Petrell is a terrific penalty killer by eye

    This narrative that Petrell is a great PKer has to stop.

    Yes, he blocks a lot of shots so by eye you think he’s good.

    I think we can all agree on that the job of the PK forward is to limit shots against on the PK.

    There are 122 NHL Forwards who average 1.5min/60 of 4v5 time and have played at least 10 games.

    Lennart Petrell ranks 105/122 with 50.8 SA/60.

    That is not good.

    There is a caveat to that though.

    His usual 4v5 partner is Belanger.

    Belanger is worse with 55.9 SA/60 which ranks him 113/122

    When you look at the SA OFF/60 it points to Belanger being a drag on Petrell.

    The Oilers average 46.7 SA/60 when Petrell is not on the ice 4v5.

    The Oilers average 39.6 SA/60 when Belanger is not on the ice 4v5.

    Neither are much good, but it looks like Belanger may be dragging Petrell down a bit..

    The fact that RK thinks that Petreel is good for hanging onto leads when his shot attempt differential is an horrendous 33.4% (NHL replacement level player is considered to be somewhere near 45%) Speaks to a coach and organization who “saw him good”

    The fact that Rk continues to put Whitney with J.SHultz when as a pairing they have a shot attempt differential of 31.5% and are each much better with every other D partner speaks to the same.

    A lot of the shine is coming off RK with his bizarre coaching decisions.

    Mike Parkatti goes into detail about RK gets owned by Babcock here: http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/03/19/a-deeper-look-at-kruegers-questionable-coaching-in-detroit/

    My bloody kingdom for something more than saw it good from the Oiler coaches and management.

  14. RMGS says:

    I don’t expect Oilers management and coaches to use underlying numbers as they should (although they are at the very least tracking some semblance of scoring chances), but with a Corsi that abominable, Petrell’s horrid play must be visible just by ‘watching the games.’ I mean, is it not obvious that when he’s on the ice the team is outshot, is outchanced, and spends more time in its own zone? That is the only way one can have the worst Corsi in the league. This is terrible decision-making by coach Krueger.

    Is Mental.

  15. bookje says:

    Woodguy,

    Saw it good is a good start, but an effective organization would bring in the analytics team every so often for a meeting where they (the analytics team) set the agenda. In such a meeting, they would pick the key issues that they have identified (such as Petrell). In response to this, I wouldn’t expect immidiate action, but rather a more focused eye on the issues raised. In this case, watching Petrel a little closer to see why the numbers are bad.

    My sense is that the Oilers are not doing this.

  16. Kitchener says:

    Excellent post. I believe that MacTambeloweson ARE aware of informed fan discussions like this and that this awareness affects real decisions. Why? I doubt The Brass comes up with all of the right ideas & observations (eg. “Petrell vs math”) on their own.

    Either the above is true or it’s harmless fiction to keep us armchair GMs satisfied.

    Math aside, that shorthander the other day was a real beaut.

  17. LMHF#1 says:

    I have trouble seeing why they can’t teach a guy like Petrell, who is large, can fire the puck, will hit people and gives a strong effort, to be better positionally and at reading the play then reacting. Where has the art of salvaging this type of player gone?

    I’m not saying he’s great or even should be on the roster (he shouldn’t), but why isn’t there more specific work done to correct the deficiencies in the games of some of these guys? “You’ve got what you’ve got” is lazy and gives you no edge on the competition,

    This is similar to my attitude towards Mikhnov and what a good 2 months of power skating work would have done for his game. You could see he’d never done it and it would have made a huge difference.

  18. steveb12344 says:

    1 thing Lenny has going for him is he is only a -3, which is better than most of the forwards.

    Considering he plays on lines that don’t score much, this would suggest that despite giving up a lot of chances, the shots may be of poorer quality and are not turning into goals very often.

    In this case the corsi doesn’t seem to correlate with goals against. Maybe he’s just a bend but don’t break kinda guy.

    Also I agree with LT. It’s time for the boys to turn a corner and start learning to win big games. I say go all out to win,draft picks be damned!

  19. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    Woodguy,

    Saw it good is a good start, but an effective organization would bring in the analytics team every so often for a meeting where they (the analytics team) set the agenda.In such a meeting, they would pick the key issues that they have identified (such as Petrell).In response to this, I wouldn’t expect immidiate action, but rather a more focused eye on the issues raised.In this case, watching Petrel a little closer to see why the numbers are bad.

    My sense is that the Oilers are not doing this.

    Exactly.

    The organization in the NHL which has integrated fancy stats the most into all decision making aspects is CHI.

    BOS is up there too.

    STL as well.

    Other teams are starting to use it more and as I get to know fancystat people more I’m surprised how many teams are using it, but there are varying degrees of it.

    If we were to use a thermometer to gauge it I would say:

    The Oilers playing grade 5 games with data sets and having a consulting group is about -20
    BOS is +20
    STL is +40
    CHI can boil water.

    This info is all in passing and the guys doing the consulting work don’t give up much info, but asking the right “general” questions can point you in the right direction.

  20. BlacqueJacque says:

    I’m with you on not diving any more. For starters, there isn’t the cap space to sign 5 top-six picks (plus ebs).

    Moreover, tanking is offensive to the hockey gods. Now when you’re in a genuine rebuild, fine. No problem. But even last year I had a queasy feeling when the Oilers were riding an out of gas Khabi who was obviously worse than Dubnyk. Let us never forget the fate of the Nordiques, the last team to draft three first overalls in a row. Or we could end up like the Panthers or Islanders or Thrashers. I am not a superstitious man in any other thing, but I believe that a tank job when you should be getting better tempts fate.

  21. Clay says:

    I’m out on that one. I just can’t cheer for a team that actively pursues losses. It runs counter to the laws of sportmanship. The Edmonton Oilers 12-13 owe it to the credibility of the game to push for the second season.
    These last several years have been a mockery bordering on farce.

    Amen to that. I hate hate hate that there is a rather huge reward for miserable failure in the NHL.

    Teams that get the rawest deal? Those that kill themselves to make the playoffs and fall just short. It’s purgatory!

    I realize that, as an Oiler fan, I’m going to (hopefully) enjoy an exciting team for the next decade that was built as a result of intentional losing. But it’s embarrassing.

    Why shouldn’t teams like Nashville, Phoenix, and formerly Buffalo, teams that normally are very competitive despite limited budgets, be penalized for it?

    How about the NHL makes it a true lottery for the 14 non-playoff teams? Every team has an equal chance at #1 overall.

    If nothing else, it would weed out the poor GMs awfully quick.

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I like Petrell (I imagine we all do). And I cheer for him. And, occasionally, he rewards that cheering. He’s workman like, he blocks shots, he hits on occasion, etc.

    He’s the kind of player the ‘ole boys saw him good’ kind of imagine at the prototypical 4th liner/PKer.

    BUT… he’s not a great NHL player. It seems neither mgt. nor coaching staff have figured this out over two years.

    That tells me that they are using the wrong measures of analysis and are targeting the wrong things. They are looking for some “type” of player rather than finding players with good qualities and arrows.

    It also tells me that Petrell is either here to stay, or his replacement will be of the exact same mold.

    So, we are going to have to hope luck intervenes and down the road Petrell is shuffled off some x reason and his replacement happens to be a good player who “looks” like the type of player mgt imagines.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On a completely different line of thought… I came across that dreaded word again this morning:

    http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2013/03/19/enigmatic_mikhail_grabovski_remains_firmly_entrenched_in_randy_carlyles_doghouse_feschuk.html

    “enigmatic”

    It’s like a certain subset of hockey journalists, coaches, scouts, etc., were all at the same event where someone used the word and after some collective googling for definition they all internalized it as the perfect descriptor of all things not: “good Canadian kid”

    At any rate, what do we think of Carlyle’s “Colton Orr is the greatest player ever” approach to 2013 NHL hockey and where do we think Grabovski will end up?

    Looks to me like he’s in that “sheltered” range:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2012_s%2B2012_p%2B2011_s%2B2011_p%2B2010_s%2B2010_p%2B2009_s%2B2009_p%2B2008_s%2B2008_p%2B2007_s%2B2007_p&f2=5v5&f3=Mikhail+Grabovski&f5=TOR&f4=&f7=&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=relQoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    On the Oil, I’m guessing he’d fight with Gagner for TOI. any thoughts?

  24. justDOit says:

    Off topic, but here’s a humorous article about every team’s woes (or lack of) around the league.

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/54590/nhl-misery-watch-looking-at-you-flyers-fans

  25. Scott Reynolds says:

    I’m not going to say that Lennart Petrell is a good option for this role because he really isn’t, but there are some mitigating factors here. Petrell’s zone-start percentage (30.4%) is 425th out of those 440 players so we’d already expect him to perform poorly by shot differential metrics. This is especially true given that we know that he usually starts on the fourth line, and that Edmonton’s fourth line is usually filled with very poor players (yes, including Petrell). We also know that Petrell usually moves up the lineup late in the game to protect a lead (very high shot against environment) and that he rarely plays when the team is pressing for a goal (very high shot for environment). Again, Petrell is not a very good option, but he’s not the worst option in the league either.

    I’m pretty confident that the coaching staff knows he’s bad too. They just seem to think that he’s sometimes one of their best nine forward options to protect a lead. The difference is in the percentages, but Yakupov’s GA/60 at five-on-five is worse than Petrell’s by 0.45/60. Maybe the staff feels like Yakupov is making big mistakes that lead to excellent chances for the other team and that at least Petrell doesn’t make those kinds of errors. Yakupov more than makes up for that offensively, but when a GA costs you much more than a GF earns you, that doesn’t much matter. And so they send out Petrell thinking of him as the least bad option (as opposed to a good option).

  26. Captain Obvious says:

    As bad a hockey player as Lennert Petrell is (and he’s terrible, not good enough for the AHL bad), and as bad as the Oilers are at making decisions, I can take solace that at least I’m not a Leafs fan with a team that lucked into playing Kadri against their better wishes, and has lucked into a being in a good position but are intent on throwing it all away with a horrible coach and a cowardly management team.

  27. DeadmanWaking says:

    I’m out on that one. I just can’t cheer for a team that actively pursues losses. It runs counter to the laws of sportmanship. The Edmonton Oilers 12-13 owe it to the credibility of the game to push for the second season.

    The Oilers had an image problem among the players after the CFP exodus. For me, this ended with the signing of J.S. We’re Back. Not all of the players viewed Edmonton as hockey purgatory, but it was a sizable reduction in the pool of available players. What do they teach in Economics 101? Reduction in supply drives an increase in price. When we saw other teams pick up role players at an affordable price, it did not imply we could have picked up a similar player at a similar price. You know, players refuse to show up to play for the Rangers every damn day–it’s a level playing field out there. Says so right there in the CBA.

    We never found out the magnitude of purgatory premium. (“My polyp is bigger than your polyp!” is not for radio.) This was probably the first conversation between Katz and Lowe’s office.

    Katz: So you’re telling me that many of the players don’t like the colour of our money?

    Lowe: Yes. Many players I’ve pursued won’t accept a million dollar bill if it’s copper and gold.

    Katz: I don’t believe you. That’s totally nuts. Who wouldn’t happily grasp after an extra mil-spot?

    [Whale hunting expedition interrupts this dialog.]

    Katz: Well, I’ll be damned. Burn it and reap.

    Lowe [muttering]: I wish we’d started a year ago.

    Katz: What did you say?

    Lowe: Excellent idea, sir. No time like the present.

    Suppose the Oilers just decided to bite the bullet and pick up role players with a 20% premium over what the Rangers would need to pay to pick up a similar player. This impacts your cap. That’s one problem. But worse, what if find out the guy is a bad fit? How do you trade him? No one else wants to bear your albatross 20% premium. You’ll have to add sugar. There go your mid-round draft picks. Oh, and about that hole in our depth chart after we catapult all our first found picks straight to the big leagues, do not pass Oklahoma, do not collect $200 and many of our lower round picks have been expended as send-away sweetener.

    Tanking for yet another wet-behind-the-ears Yakupov is a nightmare for the coaching staff. You’re supposed to go from 15th to 8th in a single bound while also finding time to school another exciting talent who can’t find his own end with both hands–and don’t forget to shuffle some warm deck chairs into the holes created by the yard sale at last year’s trade deadline. As great as Seth would be long term, the immediate impact is that five (or six) $6 million dollar men look around the room the whole season trying to decide who will soon be packing their bags. Old Mother Hubbard went to the cupboard, and when she got there: voracious tribbles. I’m sure it appeals to the high roller and used-car types to have every cowboy in Texas sizing up the Longhorn stock pen. But really, if everyone knows you’ve run out of cap corn, are you going to get an excellent price? Actually, yes, if you settle in for a long fight, leaving you little time to attend to small issues such as signing your Glencross tweeners.

    Chinese word for crisis: danger plus opportunity. Russian word for crisis: Yakupov. Every season we load up the roster with another fat dose of danger plus opportunity. It must eventually drive the coaches mad.

    In our elusive hunt for the mythical “balanced October” for once could we fill a hole at the trade deadline, so that the coach has twenty games to refine the player’s role in games where at the least the opponents still have something to play for, before we go live on next season?

    Management to coach: Here’s the keys to the new car. One source whispered into our ear that it suffers from brake dive and skitters if you’re sharp on the pedal. I asked him, “Is that a problem long term?” He said, “Not so much after you learn to expect it.” So here’s the keys–we’re sure you’ll love it–and don’t forget your first lap counts toward your final score.

    Eventually, you’ve got enough horses and it’s time to procure for the driver a matched set of tires and not adding yet another lagging turbo pump for the fourth consecutive season.

    We did what we had to do. It worked. We signed Justin–we’re back. Stuff the losing already.

    Tambi: Hey Ralph, I went to the trade-deadline swap-meet and found a sweet set of matched tires. They were a little pricey, but consider it an investment in laying a patch out of the starting blocks next October.

    Krueger: Awesome! Strike up La Marseillaise! [Pulls out iPod and spins and spins and spins and finally locates his dusty I Can See Clearly Now play-list].

    We’ve already got great Pipes. Time to focus on belting it out.

  28. Racki says:

    Clay:

    How about the NHL makes it a true lottery for the 14 non-playoff teams?Every team has an equal chance at #1 overall.

    You mean like how the NHL currently has? Welcome to the 2013 CBA ;)

  29. justDOit says:

    Racki: You mean like how the NHL currently has? Welcome to the 2013 CBA

    Actually, the chances are still close to what they were, it’s just that now any of the non-playoff teams can win the lottery and move to 1st OA – which before wasn’t the case. If team in 20th place won, they could only move up so many spots.

    Chances as per an NHL document:

    Team 1 25.0%

    Team 2 18.8%

    Team 3 14.2%

    Team 4 10.7%

    Team 5 8.1%

    Team 6 6.2%

    Team 7 4.7%

    Team 8 3.6%

    Team 9 2.7%

    Team 10 2.1%

    Team 11 1.5%

    Team 12 1.1%

    Team 13 0.8%

    Team 14 0.5%

  30. rickithebear says:

    A strong PK has the same win Affect as a Strong PP.
    Our best PK:
    Gagner 1.83 TOI 1.17 GA/60 (2nd in league) +2.34 GD/60 (1st) (a plus player on PK!)
    Horcoff 2.69 TOI 4.09 GA/60(24th) -4.06 GD/60 (37th)
    Pettrell 3.01 TOI 5.44 GA/60 (45th) -3.63 GD/60 (31st)
    Smyth 2.44 TOI 5.46 GA/60 (46th) -4.55 GD/60 (45th)
    Belanger 3.37 TOI 5.93 GA/60 (51st) -5.93 GD/60 (65th)

    Our PK made a major shift under Kruger control.
    Sam Gagner is getting his first chance on the PK.

    Yes Corsi
    LT: you might want to show Zone start next to Corsi:

    50% is mean for Zone start.
    Petrell is 30% Zone Start.
    GOALS
    1.23 GF/60 X (70/50) = 1.72GF/60
    2.24 GA/60 x (30/50) = 1.34GA/60
    Zone Adjusted GD = +.38
    Shots (the binary elimination of 0 value Corsi Data)
    15.7 SF/60 X (70/50) = 22.0 SF/60
    33.0 SA/60 x (30/50) = 19.8 SA/60
    Shot Differential +3.0

  31. jfry says:

    You guys aren’t showing much respect to our European gm, kurri!

  32. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    justDOit,

    Too much fun if the Law of Unintended Consequence bites the league and team 14 ends up with another mug shot of the “happiest man in the world”.

  33. steveb12344 says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    Great post!

    I totally agree, and for once i read your entire comment without falling into some kind of acid flashback from back in the 80′s.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Scott Reynolds,

    His CF% WOWY with his 3 most common forward linemates suggest he is the problem.

    With Petrell:

    Belander 31.1%
    Smyth 41.7%
    Eager 24.1% <——— unpossible

    Without Petrell:

    Belanger 42.3%
    Smyth 43.4%
    Eager 41.6%

    Petrell away from:

    Belanger 34.6%
    Smyth 26.6%
    Eager 36.7%

    Its a comment on the sad state of pro player procurement when the coach sees Petrell as his best defensive option.

    Also,

    Petrell's .922 5v5 ONSV% probably makes him look like a better option than Yak's .897

    More randomness that makes "saw him good" so dangerous.

  35. Jesse says:

    Woodguy:
    Petrell is a terrific penalty killer by eye

    This narrative that Petrell is a great PKer has to stop.

    Yes, he blocks a lot of shots so by eye you think he’s good.

    I think we can all agree on that the job of the PK forward is to limit shots against on the PK.

    There are 122 NHL Forwards who average 1.5min/60 of 4v5 time and have played at least 10 games.

    Lennart Petrell ranks 105/122 with 50.8 SA/60.

    That is not good.

    There is a caveat to that though.

    His usual 4v5 partner is Belanger.

    Belanger is worse with 55.9 SA/60 which ranks him 113/122

    When you look at the SA OFF/60 it points to Belanger being a drag on Petrell.

    The Oilers average 46.7 SA/60 when Petrell is not on the ice 4v5.

    The Oilers average 39.6 SA/60 when Belanger is not on the ice 4v5.

    Neither are much good, but it looks like Belanger may be dragging Petrell down a bit..

    The fact that RK thinks that Petreel is good for hanging onto leads when his shot attempt differential is an horrendous 33.4% (NHL replacement level player is considered to be somewhere near 45%)Speaks to a coach and organization who “saw him good”

    The fact that Rk continues to put Whitney with J.SHultz when as a pairing they have a shot attempt differential of 31.5% and are each much better with every other D partner speaks to the same.

    A lot of the shine is coming off RK with his bizarre coaching decisions.

    Mike Parkatti goes into detail about RK gets owned by Babcock here: http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/03/19/a-deeper-look-at-kruegers-questionable-coaching-in-detroit/

    My bloody kingdom for something more than saw it good from the Oiler coaches and management.

    Dellow does a good job of countering Parkatti’s argument here:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5642

    I think the criticism of RK is just a very slight bit overblown at this point. He’s obviously not perfect, but not as bad as some are making him out to be.

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    A couple of interesting links on sports analytics.

    Alex Anthopoulos on stats vs ‘saw him good’

    http://www.cbc.ca/player/Sports/Baseball/ID/2325131530/ (3mins in)

    The advanced stats debate in hockey

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/53471/nhl-grab-bag-kaleta-sucks-nerds-rise-up-and-gomez-scores-no-seriously-you-guys

  37. steveb12344 says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴: justDOit, Too much fun if the Law of Unintended Consequence bites the league and team 14 ends up with another mug shot of the “happiest man in the world”.

    With Lucky Smilin’ Steve at the helm, anything’s possible.

  38. Hayek says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    I’m with you on not diving any more.For starters, there isn’t the cap space to sign 5 top-six picks (plus ebs).

    Moreover, tanking is offensive to the hockey gods.Now when you’re in a genuine rebuild, fine.No problem.But even last year I had a queasy feeling when the Oilers were riding an out of gas Khabi who was obviously worse than Dubnyk.Let us never forget the fate of the Nordiques, the last team to draft three first overalls in a row.Or we could end up like the Panthers or Islanders or Thrashers.I am not a superstitious man in any other thing, but I believe that a tank job when you should be getting better tempts fate.

    I agree with you, however if we wanted to tank, and couldn’t afford the guy, we could always trade assets for future draft picks, thereby increasing the stream of prospects in the future.

  39. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    steveb12344,

    As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.

  40. bookje says:

    The laws of statistics suggest that there is a 0.5% chance the Oilers win the lottery if they are in 14th last place.

    The laws of irony, awesomeness, and Steve Tambellini’s grin counter this to the point that it is almost a certainty that the Oilers will win the draft if they finish in 14th last place.

  41. justDOit says:

    bookje:
    The laws of statistics suggest that there is a 0.5% chance the Oilers win the lottery if they are in 14th last place.

    The laws of irony, awesomeness, and Steve Tambellini’s grin counter this to the point that it is almost a certainty that the Oilers will win the draft if they finish in 14th last place.

    Are you suggesting that Bettman doesn’t play dice with the league? Is there a hidden variable theory at work here?

  42. russ99 says:

    I’m OK with keeping Petrell around as long as he’s a cheap 4th+ line forward option, and re-signing him doesn’t preclude us from addressing the bottom 6 this deadline/summer with at least 3 new experienced players.

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    russ99:
    I’m OK with keeping Petrell around as long as he’s a cheap 4th+ line forward option, and re-signing him doesn’t preclude us from addressing the bottom 6 this deadline/summer with at least 3 new experienced players.

    But that’s the problem with this team. They have an affinity for picking up spare parts (Eager, Petrell, Belanger, Hordichuk, Brown etc.) and holding on to them creating a log jam of marginal talent.

    The same problem at D: Fistric, Potter, Peckham, Whitney.

    All these contracts restrict them when actual NHL options become available and for much less than they are paying and/or had to pay to acquire these other guys: see the recent Adam Hall fuck up.

  44. gcw_rocks says:

    Jesse,

    He doesn’t do a good job. he completely ignores key elements of Parkatti’s analysis to make his case without backing it up.

  45. McKillWrath says:

    Ii am not a math guy. I am a see him good/bad type. I believe that math only tells half the story, I also realize that watching with a trained eye does not catch everything either.

    Could it be possible that the true answer is somewhere in the middle? So if watching Petrell tells us that he’s a terrific player and math tells us he is terrible player could he be somewhere in the middle and just be a good hockey player?

  46. mumbai max says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    The Nordiques/Avs won a cup or two did they not?

  47. Scott Reynolds says:

    Woodguy,

    Agreed on the percentages, though it would be interesting to see Yakupov’s and Petrell’s shot per chance ratio. At the very least, it seems likely to me that the coaching staff feels like Yakupov is the cause of more high quality opportunities than Petrell. They’re probably wrong, but it would be worth a look.

    With the WOWY analysis, some of that is to be expected (especially in Smyth’s case when w/o Petrell probably means playing higher in the lineup), but it is, once again, looking very poor. And while the “with Petrell” samples are pretty tiny here, it’s basically the same story with the 2011-12 data.

    All in all, agreed that he needs to be replaced and agreed (I think) that player acquisition is a bigger problem in this situation than deployment.

  48. 106 and 106 says:

    russ99,

    Can I just stress one thing?

    In terms of Corsi ON, Petrell ranks #440 out of 440 forwards who have played 5 or more games this season.

    Wait a minute – there’s 440 forwards in the NHL playing more than 5 games? And Lennart is at the bottom of that dog-pile?

    Sheesh, anyone have Kruger’s email?

    What are you suggesting, LT? Trade? Waivers? Buy-Out?

  49. rickithebear says:

    Today I finally get Corsi:
    It is important to identify the players greater than 1.5 Standard deviations.
    Cause that level of out shooting can not be compensated for the player affects.
    Corsi to Shot Ratio
    Shot to Goal Ratio.
    Zone Start
    Qual Comp
    Qual Team
    System affect
    Zariance to season Save %

    Zone Start and teamates clearly becomes the two most dominate factors.

    And PDO is pretty much Useless.

    Chicken or Egg.

    is it the Goalie or the players on the ice that affect SV%.

  50. BlacqueJacque says:

    mumbai max,

    The Avs won a Cup, yes. The Nordiques didn’t win squat. They also dealt all three of their first overalls (Nolan, Sundin, Lindros) before winning the Cup, as another franchise, in another city.

  51. delooper says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: But that’s the problem with this team. They have an affinity for picking up spare parts (Eager, Petrell, Belanger, Hordichuk, Brown etc.) and holding on to them creating a log jam of marginal talent.

    The same problem at D: Fistric, Potter, Peckham, Whitney.

    All these contracts restrict them when actual NHL options become available and for much less than they are paying and/or had to pay to acquire these other guys: see the recent Adam Hall fuck up.

    Perhaps until the J.Schultz signing this summer management wasn’t very confident they could attract quality 3rd and 4th line players to the team? It certainly fits the narrative, given that we see they’re only starting to let players like Eager go now.

  52. eidy says:

    Adding another Finn in the form of Barkov or Rasmus Ristolainen would be nice. I also wonder how much Monahan’s season being over will affect him. Teams really seam to like how players “elevate their game” in the playoffs and “are trending” during a run to the memorial cup. see moroz, mitch

  53. godot10 says:

    The Oilers mgmt were afraid to sign depth players last summer because they were afraid what the cap was going to be, and in the UFA market you almost always have to offer a bit too much money and one year too long in term. So I really don’t blame them for being cautious last summer.

    If they were going to sign a goon, better one year on Hordichuk, a contract that will go away, than two years for Parros. Better to sign Petrell to a one year deal, than a two year or three year deal to someone else. (See the problems that Belanger and Eager contracts caused)

    With the tight cap this year, there should be better deals to be had in the depth UFA market this summer, or via trade as teams try to get to the lower cap.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Jesse,

    The Parketti link I put up was in response to Tyler’s post (I think)

    I still side with Mike on this one.

    Keying Horcoff on Zetterburg’s line was poor decision making.

  55. Woodguy says:

    Scott Reynolds:
    Woodguy,

    Agreed on the percentages, though it would be interesting to see Yakupov’s and Petrell’s shot per chance ratio. At the very least, it seems likely to me that the coaching staff feels like Yakupov is the cause of more high quality opportunities than Petrell. They’re probably wrong, but it would be worth a look.

    With the WOWY analysis, some of that is to be expected (especially in Smyth’s case when w/o Petrell probably means playing higher in the lineup), but it is, once again, looking very poor. And while the “with Petrell” samples are pretty tiny here, it’s basically the same story with the 2011-12 data.

    All in all, agreed that he needs to be replaced and agreed (I think) that player acquisition is a bigger problem in this situation than deployment.

    Scott,

    I should have used last year’s numbers.

    Agree that this year’s are too small to make any conclusions, but they are the start of the picture that they eventually paint.

  56. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: But that’s the problem with this team. They have an affinity for picking up spare parts (Eager, Petrell, Belanger, Hordichuk, Brown etc.) and holding on to them creating a log jam of marginal talent. The same problem at D: Fistric, Potter, Peckham, Whitney. All these contracts restrict them when actual NHL options become available and for much less than they are paying and/or had to pay to acquire these other guys: see the recent Adam Hall fuck up.

    I would think that calling the acquisitions of Whitney and Peckham the equivalent of “picking up spare parts” is a tough argument to make.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: I would think that calling the acquisitions of Whitney and Peckham the equivalent of“picking up spare parts” is a tough argument to make.

    Except that the “same problem at D” I’m referring to is clearly “creating a log jam of marginal talent.”

    The issue about “acquiring spare parts” was directly referring to that group of forwards listed.

    I guess it got lost in the wording, but my overall point wasn’t meant to reference a specific acquisition heritage shared in common, but the fact that we seem to have a log jam of marginal talent at both F and D.

    It’s not that any of these players are bad per se (though some clearly are), but that we seem bent on having so many marginal players.

    Having one of Peckham/Fistrc with their even worse version Teubert in the wings seems completely reasonable. Both seems like a recipe for crappy depth.

    Having one of Current Whitney/Potter seems reasonable. Both seems like crappy depth.

    Having one of Brown/Hordichuk/Eager/Petrell seems reasonable. Having all of them seems like crappy depth.

    The issue here is duplication of marginal players, however they manage to get here. We need to duplicate good, NHL ready players.

  58. dessert1111 says:

    I don’t mind Petrell as a 14F. The problem is he is playing as, like, a 10F. I don’t want to see him in more than half the games in a year. I also think Brown is better as a 13F and shouldn’t be playing every game either. The problem is the organization is currently only running 13 forwards, though I am not sure why they don’t put Hartikainen in for Brown or Petrell. Also, Belanger isn’t a good player. If they can get a better 4C and one more winger who is better than Petrell and Brown, and especially if he’s good enough to play top 9/top 6, I don’t mind Petrell being on the team too much. He’s someone you can waive without much worry either, except that you’ve potentially wasted a contract on him.

    All that being said, I don’t think he’s the problem insomuch as he’s not the answer. He’s out there because there’s no one they feel more comfortable with. It’s the mark of a team who isn’t going to finish in the top 1/3 of the conference. Just hopefully within the next year or two they can ice a roster that can.

  59. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Except that the “same problem at D” I’m referring to is clearly “creating a log jam of marginal talent.” The issue about “acquiring spare parts” was directly referring to that group of forwards listed. I guess it got lost in the wording, but my overall point wasn’t meant to reference a specific acquisition heritage shared in common, but the fact that we seem to have a log jam of marginal talent at both F and D.It’s not that any of these players are bad per se (though some clearly are), but that we seem bent on having so many marginal players.Having one of Peckham/Fistrc with their even worse version Teubert in the wings seems completely reasonable. Both seems like a recipe for crappy depth.Having one of Current Whitney/Potter seems reasonable. Both seems like crappy depth.Having one of Brown/Hordichuk/Eager/Petrell seems reasonable. Having all of them seems like crappy depth.The issue here is duplication of marginal players, however they manage to get here. We need to duplicate good, NHL ready players.

    True depth is a myth in a cap world. It is always going to be missing somewhere. Sure it helps if you have a bunch of ELC guys who can paddle upriver, but these guys are very few and far between. Even more rare on D. I think you are going to have to get used to the “suck” at the margin.

    See LT’s twit from yesterday:
    At this rate, the NHL’s 7th defensemen and 14th forwards will live in a trailer park soon
    March 18, 2013 – 7:57 pm

    Or any of Friedman’s comments yesterday on the difficulty of obtaining real NHLers at a decent price.

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: True depth is a myth in a cap world. It is always going to be missing somewhere.Sure it helps if you have a bunch of ELC guys who can paddle upriver, but these guys are very few and far between.Even more rare on D.I think you are going to have to get used to the “suck” at the margin.

    See LT’s twit from yesterday:
    At this rate, the NHL’s 7th defensemen and 14th forwards will live in a trailer park soon
    March 18, 2013 – 7:57 pm

    Or any of Friedman’s comments yesterday on the difficulty of obtaining real NHLers at a decent price.

    But we’ve seen just recently better players available for nothing. Hamrlik and Hall were both heavily discussed here and whiffed at on waivers by the team, while waivers are put in for Volpatti and a 4th (conditionally a 3rd) is spent on Brown.

    Is it difficult to find an employ good NHL players? Sure.

    But clearly some teams are far better at it than others. And, clearly NHL players can be found by a smart GM diligently looking.

    It will be very interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks as College players become available and the NHL trade deadline approaches. I’d bet against the Oil finding NHL players though.

  61. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Have you seen Jake Muzzin play in LA? He seems to have condensed out of all the vapor emitting from Lombardi’s breath, but he was actually an astute signing. His junior career was interrupted at the age of 16 by disc hernia surgery, and the Pens (who drafted him 141 in ’07) let his rights expire. Signed by LA and kept in the minors long enough to learn the game. He and Doughty moving the puck on the PP is poetry.

    And if what I saw of the Kings last night (against the ‘Yotes) is any indication, I’d say they’re BACK, baby!

  62. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    spoiler,

    Depth in the new trailer park age is going to mean having more interchangeable guys above replacement value on the nhl and ahl rosters. So it will be even more important not to inflate a player’s wage structure by developing a player in the nhl when the ahl would do. Perhaps teams following this bold new strategy could call it the Detroit model.

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Have you seen Jake Muzzin play in LA? He seems to have condensed out of all the vapor emitting from Lombardi’s breath, but he was actually an astute signing. His junior career was interrupted at the age of 16 by disc hernia surgery, and the Pens (who drafted him 141 in ’07) let his rights expire. Signed by LA and kept in the minors long enough to learn the game. He and Doughty moving the puck on the PP is poetry.

    And if what I saw of the Kings last night (against the ‘Yotes) is any indication, I’d say they’re BACK, baby!

    somehow, everyone looks like they are being sheltered at D on LA:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=L.A&f4=D&f7=&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    But Muzzin has a nice big blue circle going.

  64. justDOit says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    spoiler,

    Depth in the new trailer park age is going to mean having more interchangeable guys above replacement value on the nhl and ahl rosters. So it will be even more important not to inflate a player’s wage structure by developing a player in the nhl when the ahl would do. Perhaps teams following this bold new strategy could call it the Detroit model.

    Interesting choice of words: interchangeable players. We heard RK hint at this from time to time during interviews, how he wants to be able to put any line out against the other team’s best. A noble effort by the coach, because he’s risking his neck with this ideology.

    Might this also account for what some people are calling ‘questionable player decisions’ by RK?

  65. asiaoil says:

    By eye and math the problems on the Oilers are obvious: bottom 6 forwards, bottom pair dmen. That the only move mgmt has made was to add another problem (Brown) points to a more serious systemic issue – mgmt is either fucking clueless or trying to lose.

    it would be nice to have a thread debating which is the case, but my money is on clueless given observation and the evidence at hand.

  66. delooper says:

    asiaoil,

    If I might ask, which brilliant move would you have made, that would indicate you are not clueless?

    I kind of feel like much of the criticisms here are tautological. The Oilers aren’t the best team in the league so management must be clueless, as people with half a brain win every single game they play in. … or something to that effect.

  67. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    justDOit,

    I meant interchangeable in the sense that players are developed in the AHL and are ready to replace an NHL player in a role that they are fully prepared for. We can argue how much that caused or resulted from Detroit’s success. But this will become the most critical way to afford depth when the top of the order squeezes bottom 6 payscales. If the rich players get richer so too will rich teams get richer via cheap depth through slower than average promotion and salary escalation.

  68. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: But we’ve seen just recently better players available for nothing. Hamrlik and Hall were both heavily discussed here and whiffed at on waivers by the team, while waivers are put in for Volpatti and a 4th (conditionally a 3rd) is spent on Brown.Is it difficult to find an employ good NHL players? Sure. But clearly some teams are far better at it than others. And, clearly NHL players can be found by a smart GM diligently looking.It will be very interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks as College players become available and the NHL trade deadline approaches. I’d bet against the Oil finding NHL players though.

    Actually, quite clearly they can’t, according to Friedman yesterday.

    The marginal difference between Hall and a couple of games missed by Belanger isn’t worth the extra contract. Hamrlik is done, expensive and adds nothing. That’s been covered here. Good on management for staying away.

  69. spoiler says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴: spoiler, Depth in the new trailer park age is going to mean having more interchangeable guys above replacement value on the nhl and ahl rosters. So it will be even more important not to inflate a player’s wage structure by developing a player in the nhl when the ahl would do. Perhaps teams following this bold new strategy could call it the Detroit model.

    N64, I don’t think there’s any consensus that either route saves money or comes without drawbacks.

    Interchangeable players tend to cost more and are much more difficult to find and acquire.

    Players that spend time in the A when they can play at the NHL level can become disgruntled. Or management hasn’t seen enough of them in the NHL to know how they’ll handle the difference, or the player spends his last year in the NHL, lights it up anyways and still gets the big contract.

    And the Detroit model, as far as drafting and development goes, still comes with a healthy dose of luck.

  70. ScottieA says:

    The problem just isn’t Petrell, it’s a large portion of the bottom of the roster. The math shows that these ‘role’ players that the Oilers have are not good NHL players. It just goes to show that the Oilers management is stuck in the past with regards to continuing to stick to intangibles when evaluating talent.

  71. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “Players that spend time in the A when they can play at the NHL level can become disgruntled”

    spoiler,

    Holding back elite talents and some of the unintended consequence is a whole ‘nuther discussion.
    If bottom salaries get squeezed the salary jump is going to be a smaller factor. Players get really disgruntled when their expectations or the teams are unrealistic. Getting HS’d? or playing until you have the role and confidence nailed down to be promoted to a role? Tough call?

    We’re talking about being less aggressive about promoting young talent until they are actually ready to displace vets.

  72. delooper says:

    ScottieA:
    The problem just isn’t Petrell, it’s a large portion of the bottom of the roster. The math shows that these ‘role’ players that the Oilers have are not good NHL players. It just goes to show that the Oilers management is stuck in the past with regards to continuing to stick to intangibles when evaluating talent.

    I think a point that doesn’t get mentioned often enough is that you could very well be making a self-referential argument here. Their stats perhaps aren’t good because they’re playing on a bad team. The 1980′s Oilers didn’t luck out and draft stellar-everything players. They had a core of amazing players that turned servicable role players into extremely good players. A team is more than individuals and contracts and this zero-sum game everyone seems to enjoy talking about on these forums. Turn a screw in a few players’ heads and you can turn awful role players into good NHL players. Forming a team requires more than just throwing money at it.

  73. spoiler says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴: “Players that spend time in the A when they can play at the NHL level can become disgruntled”spoiler, Holding back elite talents and some of the unintended consequence is a whole ‘nuther discussion.If bottom salaries get squeezed the salary jump is going to be a smaller factor. Players get really disgruntled when their expectations or the teams are unrealistic. Getting HS’d? or playing until you have the role and confidence nailed down to be promoted to a role? Tough call?We’re talking about being less aggressive about promoting young talent until they are actually ready to displace vets.

    W.r.t. cap hit, I don’t think there is any NHL team costing themselves in this regard. I think it’s a pretty moot point.

  74. ScottieA says:

    delooper,

    Having Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, Anderson, etc there didn’t make the back end of the roster better just by their mere presence. Those players were sought out and acquired through multiple sources. In many cases there were diamonds in the rough that had not been discovered yet (Dr. Randy Gregg). That’s what proper amateur and pro-scouting departments do.

    If you transplanted our 4th line onto the back ends of either Chicago or Pittsburgh they will not magically start playing better because the front of their lineups have players that are better than the Oilers top lines. Their stats aren’t good because they’re not good players. This can be seen when our 4th line gets schooled by the opposition’s 4th lines when they go head-to-head. Some players cannot simply just be made to be better NHL players; if they all could, then there wouldn’t be as much turnover out of the League from the bottoms of NHL rosters year as there is.

  75. asiaoil says:

    delooper:
    asiaoil,

    If I might ask, which brilliant move would you have made, that would indicate you are not clueless?

    I kind of feel like much of the criticisms here are tautological.The Oilers aren’t the best team in the league so management must be clueless, as people with half a brain win every single game they play in.… or something to that effect.

    Are you actually trying to defend the Oiler’s pro procurement over the past 5 years? It’s an utter dysfunctional disaster…….and yes people with half a brain do indeed win more than they lose even with handicaps like less money (an excuse the Oilers long since lost).

    If you do a list of pro procurement by the Oilers over the last 5 years – the success list is pretty damn short and includes a couple of guys who were actually great pickups that they threw into the trash (Glencross and Hejda). The list of trade and UFA pickups who have failed is long and it’s the principal reason why they are not solidly in a playoff position right now – just look at the bottom end of that Corsi chart and you will see mgmt’s handiwork.

  76. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Actually, quite clearly they can’t, according to Friedman yesterday.

    The marginal difference between Hall and a couple of games missed by Belanger isn’t worth the extra contract.Hamrlik is done, expensive and adds nothing.That’s been covered here.Good on management for staying away.

    Clearly they can.

    Going back to last Summer LT was hyping players like Winnik who were available and filled a definite need.

    We re-signed Petrell and Hordichuk.

    Friedman’s piece is on the fact that with the Bettman point and the short sch. no one knows if they are going to be buyers and sellers, plus the deadline often leads to inflated prices.

    But, it’s fatalistic to suggest player upgrades aren’t available. It simply means if you want a big piece from a failing team, you have to wait longer and pay more.

    We’re not talking about big pieces though. We’re talking about 6s and 9s to replace our 2s and 3s.

    Hamrlik/Hall is an immediate upgrade on positions we are weak at.

    Saying we can’t add quality because we have too many shitty players (concern about an extra contract) is kinda like rewarding incompetence.

    Standing pat while icing Smyth as a C is not the sign of good management. Nor is boxing yourself in on the 50 man with dead weight like Eager and Hordichuk.

    And Hamrlik would have cost nothing but Katz’ $ for a few months. It was no risk.

  77. spoiler says:

    asiaoil: Are you actually trying to defend the Oiler pro procurement over the past 5 years? It’s utter dysfunctional disaster…….and yes people with half a brain do indeed win more than they lose even with handicaps like less money (an excuse the Oilers long since lost).If you do a list of pro procurement by the Oilers over the last 5 years – the success list is pretty damn short and includes a couple of guys who were actually great pickups that they threw into the trash (Glencross and Hejda). The list of trade and UFA pickups who have failed is long and the principal reason why they are not solidly in a playoff position right now – just lok at the bottom end of that Corsi chart and you will see mgmt’s handiwork.

    So you think the decision to Trap or Not Trap has no relevance on this discussion? To play any of the various Zone Ds or Pressure Ds? That systems have no effect on stats or that budgets and personnel have no effect on systems chosen?

  78. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Clearly they can. Going back to last Summer LT was hyping players like Winnik who were available and filled a definite need.We re-signed Petrell and Hordichuk.Friedman’s piece is on the fact that with the Bettman point and the short sch. no one knows if they are going to be buyers and sellers, plus the deadline often leads to inflated prices.But, it’s fatalistic to suggest player upgrades aren’t available. It simply means if you want a big piece from a failing team, you have to wait longer and pay more.We’re not talking about big pieces though. We’re talking about 6s and 9s to replace our 2s and 3s.Hamrlik/Hall is an immediate upgrade on positions we are weak at.Saying we can’t add quality because we have too many shitty players (concern about an extra contract) is kinda like rewarding incompetence. Standing pat while icing Smyth as a C is not the sign of good management. Nor is boxing yourself in on the 50 man with dead weight like Eager and Hordichuk.And Hamrlik would have cost nothing but Katz’ $ for a few months. It was no risk.

    Friedman’s point was far more expansive than that, not to mention that aspect is still relevant. As for the Plug n Play nature of your philosophy, we’re going to have to agree to disagree, because I certainly don’t see any of the above (Hamrlik and Hall clear improvement, number of contracts no issue, injuries no issue, longer term picture no issue, paying more in assets to acquire no issue, logjam in the standings no issue). I see more years of unhappiness ahead of you, no matter who you choose to cheer for.

  79. ScottieA says:

    asiaoil: Are you actually trying to defend the Oiler’s pro procurement over the past 5 years? It’s an utter dysfunctional disaster…….and yes people with half a brain do indeed win more than they lose even with handicaps like less money (an excuse the Oilers long since lost).

    If you do a list of pro procurement by the Oilers over the last 5 years – the success list is pretty damn short and includes a couple of guys who were actually great pickups that they threw into the trash (Glencross and Hejda). The list of trade and UFA pickups who have failed is long and it’s the principal reason why they are not solidly in a playoff position right now – just look at the bottom end of that Corsi chart and you will see mgmt’s handiwork.

    Here, saved you some time regarding Tambo’s acquired ‘talent’ and his discards:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/12/4092074/steve-tambellinis-transaction-trade-signing-history

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/13/4096596/tambellinis-discards

  80. jfry says:

    That Matt Greene bubble is amazing

  81. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Friedman’s point was far more expansive than that, not to mention that aspect is still relevant. As for the Plug n Play nature of your philosophy, we’re going to have to agree to disagree, because I certainly don’t see any of the above (Hamrlik and Hall clear improvement, number of contracts no issue, injuries no issue, longer term picture no issue, paying more in assets to acquire no issue, logjam in the standings no issue).I see more years of unhappiness ahead of you, no matter who you choose to cheer for.

    I can’t really follow this.

    1) Friedman’s point is taken. Notwithstanding it, players are available even in the high market conditions. That is my point. You don’t like those players for whatever reason. But their existence makes Friedman’s point completely orthogonal to our conversation.

    2) Not sure what is “plug and play” about a) not signing bad players; b) taking upgrades below cost when they come available. I mean… no team (successful or not) remains static through the course of a year. The question isn’t who makes deals/signings/etc, but who makes good ones.

    3) You don’t think Hamrlik is an improvement on the collection at 5-8? Ok, fair enough. I do.

    4) I think Hall is a clear improvement on Belanger. And massively so on Lander, VDV and Smyth.

    5) all those things you list as “no issue” are an issue IMO.

    6) I will always cheer for the Oil. And yes I expect to be disappointed as long as KL and ST are running things. And no, I don’t expect that if I were just a fan of any team I’d experience the same disappointment. Or, I don’t believe external conditions are keeping us down (which is what you seem to be implying). Poor decisions are.

  82. dohfOs says:

    Oh those Oilers.

  83. Bank Shot says:

    ScottieA,

    The problem is mostly the top half of the roster I would say. You look at good teams and the top players generally have corsi’s that are 20+. Our best players barely break even.

    That’s fine. It’s easier to replace the bottom of roster players then the top of the roster, but still I think quality bottom six guys are not generally available on waivers.

    Petrell isn’t much of a hockey player, but I suspect his CORSI math is driven in large part by coaching effects. It would be nice if the Oilers had some players in their top six capable of closing out a game with any efficiency, but besides Horcoff, they really are pretty barren in that regard.

  84. tubes says:

    Woodguy:
    Scott Reynolds,

    Petrell’s .922 5v5 ONSV% probably makes him look like a better option than Yak’s .897

    More randomness that makes “saw him good” so dangerous.

    Petrell’s advanced stats are terrible, yes, but there has to be a reason why the ONSV% is higher with him on the ice than Yak’s…right?

    I would assume that when Petrell is on the ice the shots are of lower quality, though the opposition has more of them. When Yak is on the ice, they have better quality shots due to poorer defensive coverage, therefore better scoring opportunities.

    Yak runs around in his own end and usually doesn’t know what to do. That’s my opinion though and based on nothing more than watching the games and replaying certain GA’s. I’m sure there’s some stat that will prove my “opinion” wrong though.

    That’s why you can’t take save percentage at face value all the time. The top defensive teams’ goaltenders should have better SV% than weaker ones. They face weaker shots and scoring chances.

  85. Woodguy says:

    tubes: Petrell’s advanced stats are terrible, yes, but there has to be a reason why the ONSV% is higher with him on the ice than Yak’s…right?

    I would assume that when Petrell is on the ice the shots are of lower quality, though the opposition has more of them. When Yak is on the ice, they have better quality shots due to poorer defensive coverage, therefore better scoring opportunities.

    Yak runs around in his own end and usually doesn’t know what to do. That’s my opinion though and based on nothing more than watching the games and replaying certain GA’s. I’m sure there’s some stat that will prove my “opinion” wrong though.

    That’s why you can’t take save percentage at face value all the time. The top defensive teams’ goaltenders should have better SV% than weaker ones. They face weaker shots and scoring chances.

    If players could significantly affect ONSV% it would show up in some players being able to repeat a high ONSV% year after year.

    Luckily we have 7 years of data to look through to see if that’s true.

    I don’t have the links handy, but the answer is no, players do not significantly affect ONSV%.

    That’s about 500,000 shots worth of information.

    I’ll try to find the links when I get to a computer.

    Players CAN influence shots against, but only goalies affect saves.

  86. asiaoil says:

    ScottieA: Here, saved you some time regarding Tambo’s acquired ‘talent’ and his discards:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/12/4092074/steve-tambellinis-transaction-trade-signing-history

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/13/4096596/tambellinis-discards

    SImply listing the names he has brought in and sent out is far more damning than any words I can write – the list is awesome in displaying the result of this mgmt team’s “efforts”.

  87. wordbird says:

    Bos8,

    They could get Steckel for a song.… Oh, wait…

    How ’bout Adam Hall off waivers? … Oh, crap…

  88. tcho says:

    “So, players like a Mark Fistric hitting forwards and Brownie (winger Mike Brown) hitting defencemen, those are really important. If you look at (Lennart) Petrell and Brown, right now, the pressure they’re putting on opposition (defenceman) and here at home we can get them out against the top (D-men) once in a while.

    “Those are important skill sets that a team needs.”

    RK quoted in the Journal.

  89. Racki says:

    justDOit: Actually, the chances are still close to what they were, it’s just that now any of the non-playoff teams can win the lottery and move to 1st OA – which before wasn’t the case. If team in 20th place won, they could only move up so many spots.

    Chances as per an NHL document:

    Team 125.0%

    Team 218.8%

    Team 3 14.2%

    Team 4 10.7%

    Team 58.1%

    Team 6 6.2%

    Team 74.7%

    Team 8 3.6%

    Team 9 2.7%

    Team 10 2.1%

    Team 11 1.5%

    Team 12 1.1%

    Team 13 0.8%

    Team 14 0.5%

    Oh sorry, I missed you’re real important point of “EQUAL” chance. I misread that as everyone having a chance at the 1st overall pick.

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