UP AROUND THE BEND

The Edmonton Oilers will be making some tough decisions this spring with their restricted free agents. There are some obvious decisions on both sides of the ledger and a few tough ones. Let’s have a look.

  1. C Sam Gagner, $3.2M. Gagner is having a career offensive season and the club is going to be buying free agent seasons (unless they trade him). They could take him to arbitration but that only moves the decision back and then you’re staring at losing him to free agency. An offer sheet is possible, I’m not sure the Oilers would match. Despite his considerable skills, I have the feeling Oilers management see his flaws as being significant. My preference: long term deal. My prediction: trade. If they draft a center in the first round this summer, we’ll have our answer.
  2. L Magnus Paajarvi, $1.525M. Oilers will have to increase their spend with this player based on his applying all of the lessons learned and blossoming this year. Will $2M get it done? My preference: two-year deal at reasonable money. My prediction: same. Paajarvi could end up playing top 6 minutes next season.
  3. D Theo Peckham, $1.075M. The Oilers are either teaching him a lesson that will never leave him or have absolutely flushed him, or both. Either way, I still wouldn’t give up on him. My preference: another one-way deal. My prediction: will not qualify him. He’ll get another chance, but not in Edmonton.
  4. G Niko Hovinen, $950k (AHL). Waiver pickup hasn’t done much, suspect the Oilers will be overhauling their pro goaltending this summer. My preference: pass. My prediction: will not qualify him. Oilers don’t need a blue chip G, but should be pushing for better prospects.
  5. D Colten Teubert, $916k (AHL). As a prospect he’s in trouble. The Oilers are graduating defensemen a dozen at a time, and he is not pushing up the depth chart through performance. My preference: quality for depth, 2-way deal. My prediction: qualify for depth, 2-way deal. At this point he appears to be following Alex Plante’s career path, and that is not a good thing.
  6. D Taylor Fedun, $900k (AHL). Had a solid year and I do believe he’s on the radar for the big club. That doesn’t mean he’s going to make the team this fall, but he’s certainly worth a contract. My preference: qualify and sign to a 2-way deal. My prediction: same. Taylor Fedun has an NHL chance.
  7. C Mark Arcobello, $900k (AHL). He’s played so well in his first contracts I think the Oilers are forced here. Arcobello is exactly the kind of player Edmonton doesn’t need (small, undersized skill F) more of, but performance has been splendid. My preference: qualify and sign to a 2-way deal. My prediction: same. Sometimes when a player keeps beating the odds, you have to change your mind on him. This is Arcobello.
  8. L Teemu Hartikainen $875k. At the end of his entry level deal, Hartikainen has pushed as far as he can without actually winning NHL employment. The men blocking him are not superior and do cost more actual dollars and cap. That’s a nice place for Harski to be. My preference: sign him to a 2-year, one-way deal at reasonable dollars. My prediction: same. The draft/system pays off with a useful player outside the top 150 selections. Nice.
  9. D Alex Plante $625k (AHL). The blame here does not lie with the player, but rather the scouts who drafted him way too high. Concussions didn’t help and I sincerely hope he catches on somewhere and has a healthy NHL career. My preference: it’s time to say goodbye. My prediction: same. Playing AHL defense is a brutal job, maybe he should try Europe for a year or two.
  10. L Phil Cornet $580k (AHL). Like Arcobello, Cornet is the kind of prospect who is never going to find a job with the current Oilers. Smallish, skilled but not close to the #1 overall selections in that department, he’s better off moving on. My preference: do not qualify. My prediction: do not qualify. It’s the right thing to do. 35 goals in his last 100 AHL games.
  11. L Antti Tyrvainen $570k (AHL). Oilers gave the agitator a full chance, and he certainly can agitate. The problem is there’s not enough of a hockey player here. In the final analysis, he’s the easiest choice on the list. My preference: do not qualify. My prediction: do not qualify. I don’t think it went well.

 

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108 Responses to "UP AROUND THE BEND"

  1. fuzzy muppet says:

    I agree with everything you’ve written here save the prediction that they trade Gagner. I think it will be 83 that’s moved for a different skillset.

  2. Lowetide says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    I agree with everything you’ve written here save the prediction that they trade Gagner.I think it will be 83 that’s moved for a different skillset.

    One of the two, I think Gagner goes because he’s the center and the club will want to build up the middle. Hemsky goes eventually–let’s face it, we have too many nice things–but suspect 89 is sent away this summer.

  3. hunter1909 says:

    fuzzy muppet: I agree with everything you’ve written here save the prediction that they trade Gagner.

    I can’t imagine management wanting to risk fucking up the following top 6:

    Hall RNH Eberle

    MPV Gagner Hemsky/Yaks

    Tinker forever if you like, but this is a cup winning top 6.

  4. hunter1909 says:

    Methinks Oilers are reaching that point in development of the young stars whereby the pluggers start looking 30-50% better than they’d ever do playing on the 2013 Flames, for example.

    See K. Lowe/C.MacTavish for comparative historical reference.

    PS: It’s not simply another dig at the old boys.Imagine if the 1988 version of these two appeared on tomorrow’s roster. Both were excellent and Lowe in particular.

  5. DawnM says:

    Well, I certainly hope they don’t trade Sam now that he seems to have found his game. It’s not like there’s bigger guys that can match his output just laying around everywhere. Goals are better than hits when it comes to winning games. Could Sam net us a legit top 4 D? I don’t know. And anything less than that would make the team poorer for it.

  6. hunter1909 says:

    DawnM: Could Sam net us a legit top 4 D? I don’t know. And anything less than that would make the team poorer for it.

    Cody Hodgson for Kassian comes to mind. Nucks destroyed themselves with that trade.

    Poor Kassian – everything was rosy until they took him away from the twins. Now he’s just a 4th liner with Teubert-like injury events coming.

  7. TheOtherJohn says:

    Could see Hemsky moved to Boston for Soderberg with Samwise moved to the wing. Soderberg big body, a true C, cheaper than Hemsky and young enough to play real playoff series for Oil.

    Or at least i’d try it n/w/s I really like Hemsky

  8. ASkoreyko says:

    hunter1909: Cody Hodgson for Kassian comes to mind. Nucks destroyed themselves with that trade.

    Poor Kassian – everything was rosy until they took him away from the twins. Now he’s just a 4th liner with Teubert-like injury events coming.

    Perhaps the Sabres are also doing a pump n dump with Hodgson like Gillis.

    Or perhaps there was a real player there that brilliant GM flushed down the toilet chasing that mythical “Truculence” that we mock our management for doing.

    I think the lesson remains the same as always, you need real talented players over size.

  9. hunter1909 says:

    The single scariest thing about these Easter Oilers – 4th liner Nail Yakupov.

    The top line is sensational, insane suddenly; while Gagner’s blossomed into a point magnet and Pajaarvi’s been promoted from merely being MPS; and Justin Schultz is going to be great, and Dubnyk’s also shown up as a potential cup goalie imo;

    Hemsky’s his usual crazy self but can be easily slotted into the top 6; and Kreuger’s a revelation;

    But Yakupov’s going to be special. Like a baby white shark, he’s still learning the ropes, but next season…

  10. Lowetide says:

    The thing about Gagner is that he’s going to get $5M or close. Now, the Oilers have Hall and Eberle already getting paid and two more #1 overalls on the way to big paydays. so, if you sign Samwise that means there will be five guys signed long term up front to north of $5M deals. That’s a lot, probably close to half of the cap.

    And on the other side, can he do the heavy lifting? Perhaps Nuge ends up doing that, but perhaps not–we don’t know.

    The Gagner-Hemsky combination is magical but isn’t perfect. Add that to the feeling I’ve had about the Oilers organization in regard to Samwise and for me there’s a real chance they move him.

  11. hunter1909 says:

    ASkoreyko: I think the lesson remains the same as always, you need real talented players over size.

    Gags could be this team’s Henry Richard.

    Gagner probably has 5-6 great years ahead of him. They’d be smart to keep him until then, then trade him to a perpetually rebuilding team (like the Flames) for a fat overpayment.

  12. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909: Cody Hodgson for Kassian comes to mind. Nucks destroyed themselves with that trade.

    I don’t think the Oilers trade 89 for a forward.

    If they trade him its probably him + Marincin/Gernat for 1LD.

    Then they move Hall to C.

    Agree with your list LT, I think you can fetch a pick for Peckham andit doesn’t het to the point when they have to make a decision on him.

  13. 42 percent body fat says:

    Gagner a center at 5M and close to a ppg is worth more to the oilers, (who dont have another top center to replace him and is now our top PK guy) than eberle who makes 6M and have two other RW with skill and plays an easier position.

    Gagner is pulling his linemates this year.
    Eberle is being pulled.

    Dont want to lose either guy but the oilers and the media need to take there honeymoon blinders off when watching eberle and have resonable expectations for him, and compensate him based on that.

  14. ASkoreyko says:

    So can we finally begin to talk about Hall being clearly better than Seguin?

    Hall is out-producing Seguin and Tyler’s one saving fact was that he is a C but now it appears like he is no longer even a C.

    I think the Oilers made the correct choice and it might not even be close.

  15. Woodguy says:

    PDO was saying that Friedman mentioned that Campbell in FLA is available.

    Gets cherry starts, but top level CorQC and best corsi among FLA D.

    Plays the PP and has a wicked 1st pass and can skate the puck out.

    What would he cost?

    Almost a perfect fit for Oiler needs.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Campbell still has the wheels too iirc, that’s key. He’s a big, long contract though right?

  17. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    PDO was saying that Friedman mentioned that Campbell in FLA is available.

    Gets cherry starts, but top level CorQC and best corsi among FLA D.

    Plays the PP and has a wicked 1st pass and can skate the puck out.

    What would he cost?

    Almost a perfect fit for Oiler needs.

    I’ve been thinking long and hard on Campbell. Sure is tempting and have to think Tallon would be willing to let him go. I’d prefer Myers or Bogo or someone of that ilk, but Campbell is probably the easiest to obtain.

    BTW all, I posted in the last thread that Smid is on record today as saying he would be very happy with 5 x $3.5M. Sounds like there’s a deal to be had there.

    If Whitney would re-sign for $3M, would you rather have him, then giving up assets for Campbell or going after the weak UFA market this summer?

  18. BONVIE says:

    Lowetide,

    Pass!!! They need to target a top Dman going forward that will be a core piece of the franchise not a has been who is living out his retirement contract.

  19. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    Campbell still has the wheels too iirc, that’s key. He’s a big, long contract though right?

    3 more years at $7.140M AAV. He’s 33 (34 in May).

  20. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: 3 more years at $7.140M AAV. He’s 33 (34 in May).

    Yeah. No. I don’t go near him.

  21. Lucinius says:

    Dallas loses, but Anaheim fails to do us a favour and Columbus gets at least a point.. and could leap frog into the playoffs with a win.

  22. godot10 says:

    If Gagner is willing to accept 4 years under $5.25 mil per season, I think he stays an Oiler, since Nugent-Hopkins and Horcoff can handle the tougher assignments, and the Oilers have Paajarvi to help Gagner out. Gagner is a young productive soft minutes outscorer. That would be a tradeable contract. It would bridge the gap till the centre the Oilers draft in the first round this year is ready.

  23. spoiler says:

    You know, for a 3rd pairing PP specialist with some size and a good first pass… I don’t know if we can improve on Whitney, especially if he signs for less. I’d rather have him than MAB or Stralman.

    Question is, can we find someone capable of playing higher up the pairings? That would be ideal, but I don’t see a deal out there, other than possibly Yandle.

  24. Lucinius says:

    And Columbus wins. Letestu with the winner. Anaheim has not looked like the same team, the past 7 or so games, compared to earlier in the year. Looks like they’re slowly coming back to earth.

  25. godot10 says:

    Lucinius:
    And Columbus wins. Letestu with the winner. Anaheim has not looked like the same team, the past 7 or so games, compared to earlier in the year. Looks like they’re slowly coming back to earth.

    The Oilers have three games left with Anaheim. “Back-to-earth” would be good.

  26. FastOil says:

    I agree with LT about Gagner having sideburns. He isn’t aggressive enough to have won their confidence and has been pretty slow developing for a forward of his talent. I also thing he’s gone if they find their price.

    It would be a miracle if they came out of that deal without damage. They need to add another decent centre even with Gagner as Horcoff will be done soon and most feel Belanger is. Lander may cover third line defensive centre at some point, but if Gagner or RNH went cold or got hurt we’d likely be screwed in the post season. Having an extra centre with reasonable ability playing wing, who could move up as needed and do ok in stretches would be ideal.

    Basically a centre version of Pajaarvi – able but not offensive enough to be unaffordable, and comfortable switching between centre and wing as needed. Johansen has been playing better and harder comp this year, still not scoring a lot (on pace for 25 points over 82 at age 20), along those lines.

  27. GordM says:

    The CLB player from Elk Point scored to beat the POS ANA player from Elk Point.

  28. FastOil says:

    spoiler,

    I think Campbell is too old and rich. If they sign Whitney and he’s getting 3M it’s too much for what he brings now. 1.5M because he can’t skate now (meaning he’ll likely alternate between decent and rough patches) might be alright. I think it’s more important than ever that they set the tone with resigning support players and end the gravy train. They need to set a new precedent.

  29. BlacqueJacque says:

    What lesson are they teaching Theo?

  30. jonrmcleod says:

    I was confused by Matheson’s article on Smid. The title says Smid is going to sign before the trade deadline, but the article says it’s not a sure thing. (I’ve heard that the writer doesn’t make the headlines. I doubt the editor knows more than Matheson.) That being said, it looks very likely that Smid signs soon.

  31. PunjabiOil says:

    I’m not really worried about them signing Gagner. I think he’ll sign in the 4.5M range – in the 4-5 year range. He loves Edmonton, and his girlfriend (of 4 years) just got in the residency program at the U of A..

  32. jp says:

    spoiler:
    If Whitney would re-sign for $3M, would you rather have him, then giving up assets for Campbell or going after the weak UFA market this summer?

    spoiler:
    You know, for a 3rd pairing PP specialist with some size and a good first pass… I don’t know if we can improve on Whitney, especially if he signs for less. I’d rather have him than MAB or Stralman.

    Question is, can we find someone capable of playing higher up the pairings? That would be ideal, but I don’t see a deal out there, other than possibly Yandle.

    I REALLY hope they don’t re-sign Whitney for 3M.

    Interesting fact about MAB. Easiest Comp on TB (4th easiest Corsi Rel QoC in the league) and 77.3% OZone starts (easiest in the league). Decent CorsiRel of 10.0, but wow, those are some easy minutes!

  33. godot10 says:

    If all one is going to give Whitney is easy 3rd pairing minutes, then Klefbom can handle that, and be better defensively. Kleftbom can make the passes Whitney makes.

    i.e. There is absolutely NO reason to re-sign Whitney.

    For the Oilers to get better they want a much better defensemen that Whitney, and Klefbom getting 40 games in the AHL.

    Klefbom is a better plan than Whitney, but the Oilers really want a better plan than Klefbom on the 3rd pair next year.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Yeah. No. I don’t go near him.

    He’s still playing at a really high level, but the cliff is near for sure.

  35. bluenotenorth says:

    2nd Centre
    (Based solely on salary cap hit)

    Upper quartile $5
    Average $4

    PIT Crosby | $8.7
    TAM Stamkos | $7.5
    LA Richards $5.75
    VAN Kesler | $5
    COL O’Reilly $5
    BOS Bergeron | $5
    WAS Ribeiro | $5
    CAR Ruutu | $4.75
    STL Backus | $4.75
    NAS Fisher | $4.2
    WIN Antropov | $4.06
    SJ Pavelski | $4
    DAL Roy | $4
    NJ Zajac | $4

    Gagner above average but likely not upper quartile.
    $4.5M to $4.75 is reasonable.

  36. delooper says:

    Journal (Matheson) reporting Smid will be signed.

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    hunter1909: Cody Hodgson for Kassian comes to mind. Nucks destroyed themselves with that trade.

    Poor Kassian – everything was rosy until they took him away from the twins. Now he’s just a 4th liner with Teubert-like injury events coming.

    Thing about that deal is that two really stupid factors converged to pants Gillis.

    First, he saw heard everyone say Boston pushed his team around and clearly bought in.

    Second, he had Kessler. Hodgson apparently was pushing hard internally to play on the second line or be moved.

    Those two conditions clearly made Gillis think his hands were tied. The fact that he felt boxed in is clear from his petulant post-trade press conference where he shat on his ex-player, told the world he manipulates his roster to screw other teams and tried to embarrass his trading partner.

    Reminds one of the way many GMs and other mgt. types lash out when they don’t feel they are in control, which is clearly how they normally feel.

    At any rate, that may go down as one of the worst trades of the past 5 years. And the lessons are clear:

    1. always take skill and position over “intangibles” like grit

    2. never make emotional decisions.

    the oilers have failed these lessons many, many times. let’s hope re: Gagner they see the light.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    What lesson are they teaching Theo?

    lay off the turkey?

  39. spoiler says:

    FastOil:
    spoiler,

    I think Campbell is too old and rich. If they sign Whitney and he’s getting 3M it’s too much for what he brings now. 1.5M because he can’t skate now (meaning he’ll likely alternate between decent and rough patches) might be alright. I think it’s more important than ever that they set the tone with resigning support players and end the gravy train. They need to set a new precedent.

    Well, I don’t think he re-signs if you’re only offering $1.5M… he would get more than that on the open market. There’s plenty of pylons in the League making more than $3M per year that don’t bring the offense Whitney brings. That said, he’s only playing 3rd line TOI and it seems a lot for that kind of guy, despite the added role of the PP. Again, ideally we find someone who can play higher up the line up, but that also means losing assets, if there even is a trade available.

  40. ashley says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    But Hodgson is a smurf, relatively speaking. Kassian is 6’3″ and 25 lbs heavier. 25lbs!

    You can’t teach 25 lbs. :)

  41. fuzzy muppet says:

    I’m not worried about Columbus. The majority of their games are on the road where they are pretty terrible.

    St. Louis is the team they really need to lose

  42. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: lay off the turkey?

    Turkey’s okay. Gravy… not so much.

  43. spoiler says:

    I coulda watched a movie rather than this Bruin-Sabres barnburner.

    It seemed, at the time, like it was an important game to scout.

    And Bruins score. Finally.

  44. jonrmcleod says:

    spoiler,

    Potatoes and stuffing are worse.

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Turkey’s okay.Gravy… not so much.

    they should put him on an “all cranberry” diet. nothing but cranberry juice to drink and sauce to eat. he’d probably die of scurvy or something… but it would rate up there with other food experiments for hilarity/bizarre.

    spoiler:
    I coulda watched a movie rather than this Bruin-Sabres barnburner.

    caught part of the det/chi game at the in-laws today. that was something else. Gordie Howe’s birthday too… sucks when the away team ruins that kind of deal.

    also, that Saad kid looks like the real deal.

  46. spoiler says:

    jonrmcleod:
    spoiler,

    Potatoes and stuffing are worse.

    I will raise you a slice of chocolate cake with ice cream.

  47. Gerta Rauss says:

    What’s the deal with Tyler Bozak..? I don’t follow Toronto that closely-are they going to re-sign him, and for how much..?

    Regina boy,right handed shot,skates well..if he makes it to free agency is he someone that would fit in our top 9..?

  48. Gerta Rauss says:

    I looked at Campbell a couple of weeks ago-I think the player would be a terrific fit, but that contract…..yikes.

  49. FastOil says:

    spoiler: Well, I don’t think he re-signs if you’re only offering $1.5M… he would get more than that on the open market.There’s plenty of pylons in the League making more than $3M per year that don’t bring the offense Whitney brings.That said, he’s only playing 3rd line TOI and it seems a lot for that kind of guy, despite the added role of the PP.Again, ideally we find someone who can play higher up the line up, but that also means losing assets, if there even is a trade available.

    You’re likely right about what he wants, in which case take anything for him which is better than a walk this summer. As mentioned Kelfbom would likely produce more overall benefit playing 3rd LD, and they should have a look before his ELC is too far gone.

    Do you know anything about the Leaf’s Kostka – UFA, 27, big, RH defenseman who seems to be playing harder minutes with a positive Corsi according to the player usage bubble charts. Might be an upgrade at 3rd RD.

  50. Woodguy says:

    godot10: The Oilers have three games left with Anaheim.“Back-to-earth”would be good.

    Riding an 11% SH will do that to you.

  51. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    BTW all, I posted in the last thread that Smid is on record today as saying he would be very happy with 5 x $3.5M. Sounds like there’s a deal to be had there.

    I read Matty’s piece too.

    Why the hell isn’t the ink dry on that contract?

  52. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Thing about that deal is that two really stupid factors converged to pants Gillis.

    First, he saw heard everyone say Boston pushed his team around and clearly bought in.

    Second, he had Kessler. Hodgson apparently was pushing hard internally to play on the second line or be moved.

    Those two conditions clearly made Gillis think his hands were tied. The fact that he felt boxed in is clear from his petulant post-trade press conference where he shat on his ex-player, told the world he manipulates his roster to screw other teams and tried to embarrass his trading partner.

    Reminds one of the way many GMs and other mgt. types lash out when they don’t feel they are in control, which is clearly how they normally feel.

    At any rate, that may go down as one of the worst trades of the past 5 years. And the lessons are clear:

    1. always take skill and position over “intangibles” like grit

    2. never make emotional decisions.

    the oilers have failed these lessons many, many times. let’s hope re: Gagner they see the light.

    We wouldn’t be talking about this if Kessler hadn’t been injured all year.

    Injuries are a bitch.

  53. Woodguy says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    I’m not worried about Columbus.The majority of their games are on the road where they are pretty terrible.

    St. Louis is the team they really need to lose

    Keep sticking pins in your STL goalie voodoo dolls.

    One of the best teams int he league and they can’t get AHL quality goaltending.

    Crazy, esp. after the same two goalies won the team goalie award last year.

    Goaltending.

    Drink.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    I looked at Campbell a couple of weeks ago-I think the player would be a terrific fit, but that contract…..yikes.

    I think the contract fits.

    He’s done right when Yak needs his new contract.

    Oilers have $20.8MM in room next year. + roughly $4MM in bonus cushion

    Smid $3.5
    Campbell $7.1
    Fistric $1.5
    Gagner $5
    MPS $2
    Backup Goalie $2

    $21.1MM

    That doesn’t include taking out who you have to send away, but he can probably be had for not much off the roster and futures due to contract size.

    Year after the cap goes up to roughly $69MM J.Shultz, Petry, Hopkins, and Hemsky need new contracts but the money should be there then too.

    Hemsky’s will be less, J.Shultz a slight bump if any from the $3.37MM (incl cushion). Petry gets the biggest bump from his $1.75

    Biggest unknown is RNH. Does he explode and get $5M-$6M?

    Its close.

    Predicting when he falls off the cliff is the tough part.

    Was Norris quality last year and killing it this year on a team with bad goaltending (before Markstrom shored it up) and horrid injury troubles.

  55. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy: We wouldn’t be talking about this if Kessler hadn’t been injured all year.

    Injuries are a bitch.

    Exactly.

    Gillis was in a position where Hodgson’s agent was pushing for more ice time which was, at the time impossible to deliver with Sedin and Kesler ahead of Hodgson on the depth chart.

    I’m sure, had Gillis known Kesler would be injured for most of the time period after the trade up until today, he might have acted differently but no one can predict injuries.

    In many ways, it was a similar situation with Souray and the Oilers except that Gillis opted for a pump and dump while Lowe & Co. decided humiliating Souray was a better course of action.

    Souray would look pretty good on the Oilers D about now, wouldn’t he?

    Oh.

    DB 42

    AH 28

  56. bluenotenorth says:

    Woodguy,

    “Hemsky’s will be less, J.Shultz a slight bump if any from the $3.37MM (incl cushion). Petry gets the biggest bump from his $1.75

    Biggest unknown is RNH. Does he explode and get $5M-$6M?”

    Dubnyk is also UFA that year. Too close to the cap in 2014-15 to take on $7.14M.

  57. hunter1909 says:

    Please Tambo keep Whitney.

    We’ve all suffered together(including Whitney), he’s playing great and for his next contract which guarantees he’s going to deliver(lol), and oiler’s need him for the playoff drive.

    Keep everyone, then maybe add someone. Sign guys also.

    It’s the fairest way to allow Whitney to leave town with his head held high. And not hating everyone’s guts like he does right now. Whitney’s an abrasive competitor – not too easily found this time of the season. Why should another team reap the benefits of Oiler’s fans suffering?

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: We wouldn’t be talking about this if Kessler hadn’t been injured all year.

    Injuries are a bitch.

    All the factors would be the same except for one: Van’s C depth wouldn’t look so wonky.

    But two things:

    that deal would still look like crap today, even with a healthy Kessler. We may not have noticed how bad it was yet, but it would still reek.

    and… let’s not let injuries let Gillis off the hook here. it was clear that Gillis didn’t trust Malholtra last year (he’s said as much publicly) and he most likely knew Kessler was going to be having surgery. That means he’s got 2 ?s in his top 4 Cs and at the same time that he trades away his 3rd liner while he’s very young and on the up-swing.

    There is no question that C depth was a concern at the time of the trade.

    We’ve watched enough stupid decisions here in EDM to recognize the traits: ignore depth problems; chase size; manage player issues poorly.

    Gillis is way better than anyone who’s come near EDM in years, but he fucked up large here. no reason to sugar coat it.

    mind you… Hodgson could get hit by a truck tomorrow and Kassian could suddenly emerge as a top 6 power forward. Both seem unlikely, the latter more than the former.

  59. kinger_OIL says:

    Yes Capt. Henry: Big Sexy, Lupul, Brodziak, another top-4 D, a heathly khabi-like back-up and the OIL are a good team….

  60. Ice Sage says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: All the factors would be the same except for one: Van’s C depth wouldn’t look so wonky.

    But two things:

    that deal would still look like crap today, even with a healthy Kessler. We may not have noticed how bad it was yet, but it would still reek.

    and… let’s not let injuries let Gillis off the hook here. it was clear that Gillis didn’t trust Malholtra last year (he’s said as much publicly) and he most likely knew Kessler was going to be having surgery. That means he’s got 2 ?s in his top 4 Cs and at the same time that he trades away his 3rd liner while he’s very young and on the up-swing.

    There is no question that C depth was a concern at the time of the trade.

    We’ve watched enough stupid decisions here in EDM to recognize the traits: ignore depth problems; chase size; manage player issues poorly.

    Gillis is way better than anyone who’s come near EDM in years, but he fucked up large here. no reason to sugar coat it.

    mind you… Hodgson could get hit by a truck tomorrow and Kassian could suddenly emerge as a top 6 power forward. Both seem unlikely, the latter more than the former.

    And Hodgson (and everyone in Vcr room) saw how beat up and sub-par Kesler was but no one in the org had the stones to shut him down and show some confidence in an obvious blue chip prospect. That’s the arrogance of a team that has always settled for ‘good enough’.
    My honest hockey friends here in BC are understandably somber today – they know that last night’s game wasn’t a hiccup, it was a seismic shift.

  61. cabbiesmacker says:

    42 percent body fat:
    Gagner a center at 5M and close to a ppg is worth more to the oilers, (who dont have another top center to replace him and is now our top PK guy)than eberle who makes 6M and have two other RW with skill and plays an easier position.

    Gagner is pulling his linemates this year.
    Eberle is being pulled.

    I agree with pretty much zero percent of this.

    The teams been on a bit of a high the past few. Sam’s scored in one of them.

    Who gets pulled along?

  62. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy,

    Big contract for a guy who isn’t in the top pairing though WG. Then there’s the whole SE division thing as well.

    Take it from a Hawks/Oilers fan. The guy would frustrate the hell out of you and you’d be hung with him. Buffalo to Chicago to Florida. I’d have concerns.

  63. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    spoiler,

    BTW all, I posted in the last thread that Smid is on record today as saying he would be very happy with 5 x $3.5M. Sounds like there’s a deal to be had there.

    I read Matty’s piece too.

    Why the hell isn’t the ink dry on that contract?

    That’s a bloody good question.

    Sign Smid.

    on Campbell…

    A veteran, LH, offensive defenseman with great passing and good wheels. Very similar player to Whitney without the ongoing injury issues. Has played in the West before. Has cap risk and and age risk. Still, tempting.

    I think Tambo was purposefully building a contract ceiling with the Hall and Eberle contracts. (I think he also wanted the contracts to end in the same year, so he can negotiate with them as a pair on the next contract, which I think is pretty smart ).

    Trading for Campbell takes assets and it breaches the ceiling. That opens the door for Schultz or RNH or a UFA to ask for more. I don”t think Tambi would be willing to give up assets and a big chunk of cap space and his carefully-built ceiling to acquire him.

    Besides, he’s like 5’10″ or something. Not big enough to make a blip on Tambi’s radar screen. And Spector would absolutely lose it.

  64. fuzzy muppet says:

    Woodguy:
    spoiler,

    BTW all, I posted in the last thread that Smid is on record today as saying he would be very happy with 5 x $3.5M. Sounds like there’s a deal to be had there.

    I read Matty’s piece too.

    Why the hell isn’t the ink dry on that contract?

    I’m guessing they are arguing term. 5 years at 3.5+ for a defenseman bringing zero offense is a large number. I think they’d be ok with 3.5 for three or maybe even four years. But for 5 years they may want him around 3.3 or so.

    Longer term/less money. That’s my guess as the sticking point

  65. dangilitis says:

    @fast oil
    “I agree with LT about Gagner having sideburns. He isn’t aggressive enough to have won their confidence and has been pretty slow developing for a forward of his talent. I also thing he’s gone if they find their price. ”

    He hasn’t developed quick enough for you? Out of all the players drafted since 2006 (yes that is the year before he was drafted), only 3 players have made it in more NHL games – Kane, Kessel, and Staal. He has the 2nd most points of all players in his draft year (to Kane). He has made big strides in the last season equivalent, although his D-game has struggled with Hemsky in particular. Yes, part of the games experience is an indictment of the slums he was raised in, but then again he’s also gone from rags to riches. Nobody was here to help him work on his game, Horcoff sure wasn’t teaching him how to put the puck in the net. He has ties to the city (last I heard he was dating a med student in Edmonton,), and he is passionate about winning for the Oilers. He’s 23. Most guys that age have just moved out of their parents’ basement, and he has 400 games and 250 pts in the bank! You can call Gagner whatever you want, but “slow” and “development” shouldn’t be paired in the description.

    And I find it ironic people here were even pondering Campbell when they balk at Horcoff’s contract (which I do too) and the prospects of signing valuable players like Smid and Gagner. And LT, if they draft a top 10 Center in the draft, how long before they become as good as Gagner? So we perpetually trade draft picks that turn into what they were expected? A top 10 C in this year’s draft, as deep as it is, has as good a chance of becoming what Gagner is, as Gagner is… Sound confusing? Because it is. If we are drafting another Center its because we are going to give them 3-4 years to see if they can develop into Gagner is so we have depth at that role. Trading Gagner once we have another replacement 4 years in the making is exactly what LT and Copper and Blue, etc. always criticize management for doing, the infamous perpetual rebuild. Most teams can afford their top 2 centers at 5+6 million, its that 3rd C who is using up all of our cap space. And if I am thinking forward, I don’t give up Gagner now because I can’t afford to keep both him and Horcoff, I give up Horcoff because he is overpaid for the role he is in (no matter how good he is at doing it), and because I don’t want to lose Gagner and wait 4 years for his next reincarnation to go through the lumps of learning on the job. Meanwhile, a 3rd line center replacement can be drafted past the first round, bought on the open market at a price less than 5 million, or acquired by trade without the loss of many assets.

    It’s the same argument with Smid (who thankfully is resigning as we speak, hopefully) – If you see Smid as a top 4 D-man, he deserves top 4 D-man money, and 3-4 is fair market. Don’t gripe about him when there are 2 guys making top 4 D-man money (N Schultz + whitney) playing 4-5/6-7 time. N Schultz maybe needs to be traded for a solid #5 Dman who makes that kind of money + a draft pick, so they can shift around these priorities and we leave more money for the players who deserve them more…

  66. spoiler says:

    Ice Sage: And Hodgson (and everyone in Vcr room) saw how beat up and sub-par Kesler was but no one in the org had the stones to shut him down and show some confidence in an obvious blue chip prospect.That’s the arrogance of a team that has always settled for ‘good enough’.
    My honest hockey friends here in BC are understandably somber today – they know that last night’s game wasn’t a hiccup, it was a seismic shift.

    Well, we thought some seismic shifts occured after Cogs, Gags and Nilsson went on their late season run. Don’t get me wrong, there’s far more talent here now and a shift is inevitable, but let’s beat them after whatever deadline deal they make and when they have last change before we in Edmonton proclaim the shift has occured.

    But it sure was a decent tremor. Definitely moved the needles.

  67. geowal says:

    Smid is “close” to signing per TSN:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=419574

  68. Lowetide says:

    Dangilitis: I’m a Gagner fan, don’t want them to move him. I do think it’s a strong possibility, though.

  69. Ryan says:

    dangilitis,

    Gagner’s a complex situation. On the one hand, I like Gagner and would be in no rush to move him.

    The main problem with Gagner is that he’s putting up some stupid counting numbers this season which could inflate his price beyond reason.

    That’s what it boils down too at this point.

    By the underlying numbers, his zone possession stats have been inexplicably terrible. He’s had numerous defensive lapses. His FO% is 42. He’s not really a tough minutes centre either.

    On that cheerful note, if I were Gagner and playing at nearly a PPG this season, heck, I’d be looking to get paid. I’d be looking for Eberle/Hall money too.

    So there’s the rub. You want Gagner and he probably wants $6 million per. Sign Gagner at 5 years x $6 m and next year when he puts up 45 points in 78 games against middling opposition, loses 58% of his face offs and makes the same defensive lapses, then what have you got? Another dirty russian contract?

    So in short, I do like Gagner, but the salient question is to Ganger or not to Gagner, but to Gagner at what terms? This season’s counting numbers excluded, I don’t see a $5-6 m cap hit centre in Sam Gagner. Kesler money for Samwise is no thnx.

  70. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ice Sage: And Hodgson (and everyone in Vcr room) saw how beat up and sub-par Kesler was but no one in the org had the stones to shut him down and show some confidence in an obvious blue chip prospect.That’s the arrogance of a team that has always settled for ‘good enough’.
    My honest hockey friends here in BC are understandably somber today – they know that last night’s game wasn’t a hiccup, it was a seismic shift.

    The nucks have some arrogant fans, no doubt. and I hate them.

    but that’s still a damn good team. and has been for a long time. It’s still going to be a while for that shift to take place, if it happens.

    besides, one bad trade and a one bad game against a still middling oilers aren’t really related events.

    still… any day a nuck fan is somber is a great day! fuck those guys.

  71. dangilitis says:

    Ryan,

    Lowetide – I know you’re a Gagner supporter, I just can’t even rationalize why mgmt would think that his makes sense.
    Ryan – couldn’t agree with you more. But Gagner knows or should know he gets the benefit of weaker QofC, so pts shouldn’t make that big of a difference. I guess you demonstrate my point, too, which is that pointwise we might expect a dip. FO I can’t say what will happen (RNH is awful too, and we still wont bat an eye if he gets Hall-Eberle money), and D coverage will likely improve because he is committed to getting better. So he scores 50 pts a year, that’s what most 2nd line C do. And 5 per for a good 2nd line C is not unreasonable. Why it is even a topic for discussion is because we might run into cap trouble because a 3rd line center is making that money when it should be going to a #2 center.

    PS How has Gagner been in terms of Scoring Chances with Paajarvi instead of with other wingers at his side?

    PS#2 Corsi numbers yesterday were a prime example of games where you can’t always believe them to be a true reflection of play, because anybody who thinks Canucks outplayed us by a 55-45 margin needs to give their heads a few shakes

  72. pboy says:

    geowal,

    Keep in mind that Iginla never became a Bruin, as per TSN. I’ll feel better when they announce Smid’s re-signing officially.

  73. rickithebear says:

    How many Centers are top 30 in
    Points
    PK/GA
    PP/points
    Plekanec:
    20th PT
    16th PK
    3rd PP
    Getzlaf
    6th PT
    22 PK
    14th PP
    Gagner
    15th points
    2nd PK
    2nd PP
    Same ganer is currently the best all round Center option in the game.
    pay him his 5.5M SHUT UP!

  74. Woodguy says:

    Captain Happy: Exactly.

    Gillis was in a position where Hodgson’s agent was pushing for more ice time which was, at the time impossible to deliver with Sedin and Kesler ahead of Hodgson on the depth chart.

    I’m sure, had Gillis known Kesler would be injured for most of the time period after the trade up until today, he might have acted differently but no one can predict injuries.

    In many ways, it was a similar situation with Souray and the Oilers except that Gillis opted for a pump and dump while Lowe & Co. decided humiliating Souray was a better course of action.

    Souray would look pretty good on the Oilers D about now, wouldn’t he?

    Oh.

    DB 42

    AH 28

    I knew I was going to lose that bet when 89-83 didn’t rip up 2nd toughs for the last 20 games last season.

    Shit.

    To make me feel better:

    Sam Gagner 34gp 13g 18a 31pts
    Kyle Wellwood 30gp 2g 6a 8pts

  75. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    that deal would still look like crap today, even with a healthy Kessler. We may not have noticed how bad it was yet, but it would still reek.

    That’s all I was referring to.

    We wouldn’t have noticed.

  76. Woodguy says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    Woodguy,

    Big contract for a guy who isn’t in the top pairing though WG. Then there’s the whole SE division thing as well.

    Take it from a Hawks/Oilers fan. The guy would frustrate the hell out of you and you’d be hung with him. Buffalo to Chicago to Florida. I’d have concerns.

    He leads FLA in 5v5 TOI/gm and TOI overall by 5 minutes over the next guy.

    That’s first pairing minutes.

    Also has the toughest CorQC among D.

    60% OZ takes the shine off a bit, but he’s the goods.

    Contract is probably too big and he’s played almost 850 NHL games too…..cliff is coming

  77. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hall and Eberle contracts do not lapse at same time. Eberle’s is 6 years. Hall 7

  78. FPB94 says:

    A lot of people are pissing on the Kassian trade, but I also saw a lot of people applauding that trade, or rooting towards drafting Kassian, or other various Coke Machines to try and get that 2nd coming of Lucic.

    I tought it was a really stupid trade, but to be fair to Gillis a lot of people tought it was a really smart trade.

    Same thing for the Shattenkirk-Stewart fleecing of STL when i was told Jay Mcclement had relevance in that trade.

  79. TheOtherJohn says:

    Like Jaybo better than Campbell. Would love to get Giardano more than Jaybo but that ain’t happening. Would love to get Bogosian. Offer sheet or trade. With Bogo, Petry, Smid & JSchultz we would have a solid top 4. Winnipeg can afford to sign him

    Myers would be a dream but after Buffalo pays him $12 m this year not sure we get him unless we trade a lot : Gagner +++

  80. jp says:

    spoiler: That’s a bloody good question.

    Sign Smid.

    on Campbell…

    A veteran, LH, offensive defenseman with great passing and good wheels.Very similar player to Whitney without the ongoing injury issues. Has played in the West before. Has cap risk and and age risk.Still, tempting.

    I think Tambo was purposefully building a contract ceiling with the Hall and Eberle contracts. (I think he also wanted the contracts to end in the same year, so he can negotiate with them as a pair on the next contract, which I think is pretty smart ).

    Trading for Campbell takes assets and it breaches the ceiling.That opens the door for Schultz or RNH or a UFA to ask for more.I don”t think Tambi would be willing to give up assets and a big chunk of cap space and his carefully-built ceiling to acquire him.

    Besides, he’s like 5’10″ or something.Not big enough to make a blip on Tambi’s radar screen.And Spector would absolutely lose it.

    FLA could always retain a couple mil of his salary. Would make it more palatable for the Oilers cap and salary structure. It would also drive the price tag up a tad. Not sure how much it would take to get him out of FLA. That looks like a contract that would pass through waivers to me – the cost to get him shouldn’t be overly high. Even at 5M, 3 more years for a soon to be 34 year old is a bit scary.

  81. FastOil says:

    dangilitis,

    Not saying he isn’t a good player. But he is 2 years from what is considered peak age for forwards – 25 years old. He has had a breakout season, but it could be one of his best.

    Top selected forwards typically don’t need as long to rip it up, Sam being a 5th year player. To expect this as Gagner’s new level (which it might be) could be a huge mistake – see Horcoff, Pisani, etc etc. He might be a 40-50 point player without the perfect situation for him.

    The team won’t draft a C as good as Gagner most likely unless they are picking top 5 again. There’s a good chance Barkov or MacK will be as good or better long term, maybe Monahan overall, but after that it is a long shot.

    I don’t consider that his draft year is shitty as a feather in Sam’s cap. Yes he’s the best of an underwhelming group outside of Kane – but who cares? Kudos to the Oilers for picking him over others. The team needs more good players, and this draft should put a bunch in the league.

  82. FPB94 says:

    FastOil,

    Forgot Pax, Subban and Mcdonagh. =P

  83. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    How many Centers are top 30 in
    Points
    PK/GA
    PP/points
    Plekanec:
    20th PT
    16th PK
    3rd PP
    Getzlaf
    6th PT
    22 PK
    14th PP
    Gagner
    15th points
    2nd PK
    2nd PP
    Same ganer is currently the best all round Center option in the game.
    pay him his 5.5M SHUT UP!

    Ricki, please don’t call Gagner the best all around center in the game. It’s absurd.

    That PK number is based on 59 min of 4X5 where the goalies have a .978 SV%. And 42.5% on FOs isn’t exactly elite. Good player, but come on.

  84. Captain Obvious says:

    Here’s some evaluations based solely on last years numbers.

    Sam Gagner is underrated. Even last year he was a well above average player comparable in value to guys like Ryan O’Reilly, David Backes, and Mike Ribeiro. If you can get him long term at 4.5M you take that every day of the week.

    Brian Campbell is good but overpaid. Dead average at even strength and excellent on the powerplay. Now being average while logging lots of minutes is still pretty good but $7M a season is a lot. I might be talked into taking him for free but I wouldn’t trade talent for him. He’s similar but not as good as Dan Boyle. I’d rather have Yandle or Boyle for that matter.

    Tyler Bozak is a below average player at even strength, decent on the power play. He’s similar to Mark Letestu or if you are kind, Danny Briere. If you are unkind, Steve Sullivan. In any case he is a bad contract waiting to happen.

    Cory Hodgson is closer to a better version of Tyler Bozak than he is a poor version of Sam Gagner. In 11-12 anyway (I haven’t looked at this season at all) he was below average at even strength and put up all of his points on the power play. He’s pretty comparable to Brian Little or maybe a slightly better version of Derek Brassard. Now Kassian’s numbers are much worse but Hodgson isn’t anywhere near a star player.

    As to what the Oilers should do it’s simple:

    Keep Hemsky
    Sign Smid for $4M or less
    Sign Gagner for $4.5 to $5M
    Trade for Tyutin or comparable for $5.5 M or less
    Sign best FA forward available for $3M or less

    This fits them under the cap (go to capgeek and do it yourself) and makes them contenders next season.

  85. TheOtherJohn says:

    CO

    I’d trade for Tyutin. Why would CBJ trade him to us?and for what?

  86. Captain Obvious says:

    The serious conversation should be over which $5M Dmen the Oilers should be targetting.

    Of the semi-serious names mentioned Giordano and Tyutin are the best.

    Campbell is semi-ok-sort-a

    Bouwmeester is a big fat no.

    Going to capgeek to see teams that might be in cap trouble I like:

    Josh Gorges: He’s a Smid type
    Vlasic is another Smid type if his numbers have held up I haven’t checked.
    Love Brent Burns but have no idea why he’s playing forward or what that means
    Beachemin is good.

    Those are the kind of guys the Oilers should be looking at.

    That said Tyutin is #1 with a bullet. He has the greatest disparity between his real value and perceived value and he plays for team whose strength is D and which will have a low payroll..

  87. TheOtherJohn says:

    I just thought of a use for Nic Schultz’s $3.5m contract in our third pairing. It gives Fla a decent player if they trade us Campbell for Schultz+ and offsets the ridiculous salary Campbell makes.

  88. Captain Obvious says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I’d trade anything not contributing right now for Tyutin except for this years #1 pick. I’d trade next season’s #1 pick or this season if it was out of the lottery.

    As to why Tyutin would trade him, they are a team that loses money, operates on an internal cap, and has a lot of salary tied up in D. It’s also where all their talent is. That said while I believe they will trade a D this offseason I expect they’d prefer to trade Wisniewski and they’d prefer to get NHL ready talent in return so it probably wouldn’t work. But he’s they guy I’d want.

  89. TheOtherJohn says:

    CO

    Not disagreeing with you on Tyutin. But why would CBJ trade him? Signed 5 more years reasonable dough. Smart GM there. Only asset I can think would entice them would be our 1st + and if that was in play expect Calgary would at least return your call re Giardano

  90. FPB94 says:

    Captain Obvious,

    That would be a damn stupid trade. Don’t let need make you go silly; Dallas learned the hard way.

  91. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy: He leads FLA in 5v5 TOI/gm and TOI overall by 5 minutes over the next guy.

    That’s first pairing minutes.

    Also has the toughest CorQC among D.

    60% OZ takes the shine off a bit, but he’s the goods.

    Contract is probably too big and he’s played almost 850 NHL games too…..cliff is coming

    You bring in Campbell at his salary and you lose out on getting that real top pairing guy that you’d be paying a lot less than $7.14M per for. The guy has the worst contract in the NHL.

    I meant he isn’t a top pairing guy on a team with decent D. Cupboards are pretty bare in Florida outside of Kulikov. He was a 3 – 4 in Chitown behind Keith and Seabrook and sometime Hjallmarsson, yet he made more than both K and S which is some sort of cruel joke.

    If the Oilers are smart they’ll find a top pairing guy that’ll cost them less than Campbell and they’ll get better bang for the buck in the process.

  92. TheOtherJohn says:

    What would be a damn stupid trade? And stupid for who?

  93. TheOtherJohn says:

    There are 2 very good defenseman that are RFA’s Pietrangelo and Bogosian. If we need to do anything to be in a position to offer sheet them, ie retrieve draft picks, now is the time to do that

  94. Captain Obvious says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    What would be a damn stupid trade? And stupid for who?

    I was wondering the same thing. The problem with my scenario is that the Blue Jackets wouldn’t do it, not that it would be a bad trade for the Oilers. They have three first round picks this year already and they need to turn the ship around quickly. Trading Tyutin for the #15 overall would be a very bad trade for them.

    I like both Bogosian and Pietreangelo and would offer sheet either of them. However, that isn’t much of a plan since the other team would match in both cases if not sign them before you even get a chance.

  95. dangilitis says:

    FastOil,

    Agreed, he was a great pickup at #6.
    3 more points -
    1) He has been a 40-50 pt guy his whole career, except for now
    2) If he did “only” put up 40-50 from her on out, that’s okay, even if we paid him like a 2nd line C, which still can be 4-5 mil/yr. That is, as long as he can stand up a bit better against QoC, which I think he will. If you are going to “overpay” for a forward position, C is most logical
    Here are comparable cap hits. Now the cap will make salaries a little less going forward (although don’t tell that to Anaheim and Carolina), but if we got Gagner signed at that price, I would put him in the top 3 in that group at present (easy when some are not even in the NHL). But the bigger point – how many of those guys are qualified 1st liners?
    Alfredsson, D. $4,875,000
    Ruutu, Tuomo $4,750,000
    Connolly, Tim $4,750,000
    McDonald, Andy $4,700,000
    Umberger, R.J. $4,600,000
    Jagr, Jaromir $4,550,000
    Backes, David $4,500,000
    Malone, Ryan $4,500,000
    Laich, Brooks $4,500,000
    Erat, Martin $4,500,000
    Legwand, David $4,500,000
    I will add one more that you already know of as well – Horcoff, Shawn 5.5 mil. And there’s the rub…
    3) I have never heard of the 25 y/o peak. Most top 2 line players do not hit the wall until 33-35 unless injuries take their toll. Smytty put up almost 50 last year in spite of attempts to slow him down (see line change to dead zone). Hemmer is not on the decline, despite what MSM says. In fact, I would argue most players who excel and are not #1 overalls, peak in the late 20s or at the very least remain as valuable. You take risks with forwards when the contract goes beyond 32ish. I repeat, Gagner is 23. To say 5 yrs from now he will have given us the best yrs of his career seems a tad presumptuous…

  96. FPB94 says:

    Zach Bogosian has 6 points and -6 in 24 games.

    Trading a first round pick for Fedor Tyutin? Excuse me?

    The combined -33 over the last two years Fedor Tyutin? Oh my god.

    When was the last time a 30 point 2nd pairing defenseman fetched a mid first round pick? That’s god awful. I’m sorry but you have absolutely no idea how to use trades.

    Even if he’s actually worth that (and then i doubt it) it’ll still be a terrible overpay for what the market usually pays (exception of the trade deadline) . Zbynek Michalek got traded for a 3rd rounder and garbage, Lubo for a 2nd, Nikita Nikitin for nothing.

  97. delooper says:

    If Edmonton can grab 8th spot tomorrow, even if they don’t make the playoffs that’ll be a giant positive for the season.

  98. spoiler says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Hall and Eberle contracts do not lapse at same time. Eberle’s is 6 years. Hall 7

    That’s right. Don’t know why I was thinking otherwise. I blame the mind-numbing Bruins game.

  99. rickithebear says:

    jp: Ricki, please don’t call Gagner the best all around center in the game. It’s absurd.

    That PK number is based on 59 min of 4X5 where the goalies have a .978 SV%. And 42.5% on FOs isn’t exactly elite. Good player, but come on.

    Yes that is the price of the item.

    Yes he is the only center top 13 in points, PK, pp

    So what are the three elements of the game.

    Oh that’s correct shooting is more important.

    So you say to yourself. I want one of the best point producing centres who is top 2. In PK and PP.

    The answer is Sam Gagner!

    Ok
    i want one of the top 5 PK centres.
    Bergeron
    Gagner
    Kelly
    Peverly
    Letestu

    OK One of the top 5 PP centres
    Ribiero
    Gagner
    Plekanec
    Thornton
    Malkin

    Ok top 15 points producing centres.
    Crosby
    Stamkos
    Kadri
    E. Staal
    Getzlaf
    Tavares
    Toews
    Datsyuk
    Ribiero
    Duschene
    M. Koivu
    A. Kopitar
    Gagner
    Bergeron
    H. Sedin
    Backstrom
    Thorton

    Aim seeing a lot of great centres at two things.
    Imagine if we could get one at all three.

    Got to be worth more than the dollars these guys are getting.

  100. rickithebear says:

    You are assigned a legitimate task.
    Pk and PP better than 1.50 min.
    25th toughest comp in the league.
    33rd hardest zone start.

    JP:

    Who then:
    Cause mine is the top of first line
    Though comp
    Zone start
    Point producing center
    Who is the best special team choice at center in the game.

    I look forward to your answer.
    Remember al that counts in the game is the puck crossing the line.

    GF
    GA
    Points.

  101. Kris11 says:

    Ricki,

    You also were a big fan
    of Rieder (who has regressed)
    based on his boxcars.

    Boxcars without context, like SH%, TOI, qual comp., zone
    start, PDO, etc. are
    necessary to make sure you don’t fall into the trap of thinking
    that
    a player’s strong results will continue into the future
    when actually there is reason to think they won’t, e.g.
    Fistric’s
    GA numbers or Gagner’s
    PK results.

  102. "Steve Smith" says:

    Kris11,

    I see what
    you
    did there

  103. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Kris11,

    I see what
    you
    did there

    I applaud
    Your self
    Control to not
    Talk about ONSV%
    SH%
    QC
    QT
    Or
    Firetrucks

  104. godot10 says:

    bluenotenorth:
    2nd Centre
    (Based solely on salary cap hit)

    Upper quartile $5
    Average $4

    PIT Crosby | $8.7
    TAM Stamkos | $7.5
    LA Richards $5.75
    VAN Kesler | $5
    COL O’Reilly $5
    BOS Bergeron | $5
    WAS Ribeiro | $5
    CAR Ruutu | $4.75
    STL Backus | $4.75
    NAS Fisher | $4.2
    WIN Antropov | $4.06
    SJ Pavelski | $4
    DAL Roy | $4
    NJ Zajac | $4

    Gagner above average but likely not upper quartile.
    $4.5M to $4.75 is reasonable.

    Zajac signed a new contract for $5.75 million.
    Roy is UFA this summer. His $4 million is an old contract.
    Pavelski only has one year left on a 3-year old contract.

  105. godot10 says:

    Campbell is a LH defensemen whose has played all all of his career on RIGHT defense. He really duplicates Justin Schutz’s skill set at a horrible price point with far too much term left for a team that has to sign Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Schultz, Hemsky, and Petry over the remaining term.

    He breaks the Taylor Hall salary cap, and Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry are up for a new contracts after next season.

    Campbell is also pushing 35.

    A really bad idea for a rebuilding team. Not the right skill set. Too old. Bad contract.

  106. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Campbell is a LH defensemen whose has played all all of his career on RIGHT defense.He really duplicates Justin Schutz’s skill set at a horrible price point with far too much term left for a team that has to sign Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Schultz, Hemsky, and Petry over the remaining term.

    He breaks the Taylor Hall salary cap, and Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry are up for a new contracts after next season.

    Campbell is also pushing 35.

    A really bad idea for a rebuilding team.Not the right skill set.Too old.Bad contract.

    Didn’t know he played RD.

    I’m convinced he’s not the right move unless FLA retains salary, and that isn’t happening.

  107. jp says:

    Kris11,

    Well presented.

    rickithebear:
    You are assigned a legitimate task.
    Pk and PP better than 1.50 min.
    25th toughest comp in the league.
    33rd hardest zone start.

    JP:

    Who then:
    Cause mine is the top of first line
    Though comp
    Zone start
    Point producing center
    Who is the best special team choice at center in the game.

    I look forward to your answer.
    Remember al that counts in the game is the puck crossing the line.

    GF
    GA
    Points.

    The (biggest) issue is that his PK GA numbers aren’t going to remain as strong as they are now. If they do then we can consider having a conversation about Gagner being a top 2-way center. Last year you wanted to put Eager on the 1st line because his G/60 was good. Do you still think Eager is a first line player?

    I don’t have time to browse BTN for top 3 way centers right now, but I’ll get back to you with a list that doesn’t include Gagner.

  108. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    that deal would still look like crap today, even with a healthy Kessler. We may not have noticed how bad it was yet, but it would still reek.

    That’s all I was referring to.

    We wouldn’t have noticed.

    no need to belabour the point, esp. because I agree, but Gillis kind put a huge spotlight on that trade with his press conference.

    I’d say people would be forced to track it after something like that. like the Daigle situation… once you make a spectacle of yourself you can’t avoid the attention.

    but for sure, if you’ve got Henrik and Kessler as your healthy 1 and 2, the importance of your 3 and 4 can look deceptively inconsequential.

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