COYOTES AT OILERS G40 (12-13) 10.4.13

Taylor Hall put the Anaheim game into perspective: “You never know what can happen, but this was one we had to win.” After that, who needs analysis?

Plenty of interesting writing about the Oilers in the last 24 hours. I suggest reading:

I would only add that season over season comparisons are difficult this year, because the current Oilers doesn’t have any games scheduled against the soft underbelly of the NHL. Either way, I enjoyed both reads.

IN THIS WORLD, THERE’S TWO KINDS OF PEOPLE MY FRIEND

It’s kind of a funny thing. If we list the current Oilers who were drafted by the club, we get the following list:

  1. Nail Yakupov (2012)
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011)
  3. Taylor Hall (2010)
  4. Magnus Paajarvi (2009)
  5. Anton Lander (2009)
  6. Jordan Eberle (2008)
  7. Teemu Hartikainen (2008)
  8. Sam Gagner (2007)
  9. Jeff Petry (2006)
  10. Theo Peckham (2006)
  11. Chris VandeVelde (2005)
  12. Devan Dubnyk (2004)
  13. Ales Hemsky (2001)
  14. Shawn Horcoff (1998)
  15. Ryan Smyth (1994)

With the exception of Justin Schultz, how many Oilers procured outside the draft are vital to the team’s fortunes? Smid and Schultz the elder? It’s a damn short list. That’s the Lowe/Tambellini part of the list, and we’re missing a few Ryan Smyth seasons courtesy the GM, too.

april 10 st

Not much to say, we’ll have to wait until Saturday night to see if we’re talking playoffs or draft. Speaking of which, I’m kind of up in the air about who to have on this weekend–draft, Oil Kings, bloggers, etc. Any requests? Let me know.

The Oilers list of needs heading into the summer is once again too long for Steve Tambellini to manage: #1 D, #2 G, 2-way winger and a 4line C. I sincerely believe if he had two holes to fill the club would be better off, and remain hopeful MacT will have an impact. The secondary info we get re: the draft last season seems to give heavy credit to salt and pepper MacT. We wait.

PDO popped in last night and suggested the club sign Nathan Horton in the summer, then deal Hemmer for D. How would that look?

  • Nuge-Hall-Eberle
  • Gagner-Paajarvi-Horton
  • Horcoff-Hartikainen-Yakupov
  • Smid-Petry
  • New D from Hemsky deal-J Schultz

I like it, although trading Hemsky will be a tough day. What say you?

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337 Responses to "COYOTES AT OILERS G40 (12-13) 10.4.13"

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  1. jfry says:

    Maggie’s gonna see a lot of time and I think we under use yak in your line up :)

  2. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide said: I’m kind of up in the air about who to have on this weekend–draft, Oil Kings, bloggers, etc. Any requests? Let me know.

    Well, if you want to shake it up a bit I’d invite Hunter, “Steve Smith”, Dee Ess Eff, and Dan Tencer. Have them on all at once.

    I’d tune in. ;)

    Edit: Dan can’t be on that end of the dial.

  3. HBomb says:

    Lowetide:

    This Lazar debate seems to be the hot item right now. See if you can get one of the guys from RLR or something along those lines and focus in on where he should go and if the Oilers could justify taking him in the 8th-12th overall range.

    That, and I suggest you spend at least 30 minutes talking about how awesome #4 for the Edmonton Oilers is. A strong finish might put him in contention for a spot on the postseason all-star teams at LW (although, voters being as uncreative as they are, will probably just tab Kunitz and Ovechkin and ignore Cannon Ball Hall).

    With Hemsky and Horcoff perhaps moving on over the next 15 months or so, Hall might be the next great hope for the Oilers to finally have a top-end guy spend his entire career with the organization (assuming the team eventually gets better and he doesn’t pull a Rick Nash after years of frustration).

  4. jfry says:

    Re: show

    You could have vollman and gabe every week and I’d find it interesting, for what it’s worth. Really smart people.

    I’d be into anyone that’s helping bring tools to the fans. While its for fantasy hockey, the guys at leftwinglock have some nice ideas too.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Read this the other day about Frolik in CHI.

    Started out on the 4th this year, 1PK. Moves up and down the lineup as they need him and he fits everywhere.

    I see MPS very much like Frolik.

    Won’t be expensive because he doesn’t bring a ton of offense, but very valuable to a coach/team as he can do almost any job you need him to.

    http://www.suntimes.com/sports/19280491-419/michael-frolik-looming-large-as-blackhawks-utilityman.html

  6. justDOit says:

    Gret99zky:

    Well, if you want to shake it up a bit I’d invite Hunter, “Steve Smith”, Dee Ess Eff, and Dan Tencer.Have them on all at once.

    Replace Tencer with Spector and include WG.

    And maybe add Mike Reno? According to the link below, he seems to have a pretty good idea about this Oilers’ season.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMLHPnxkOwA

  7. mustang says:

    LT, it would be interesting to have RLR give us a report on Lazar, Spec and Gregor on at the same time would be good listening. Cory Graham to talk about the Oilkings and his opinion on Lazar would be good as well.

  8. Genjutsu says:

    Not in love with trading Hemsky but would okay with the move provided they add another competent puck mover to the roster. Chicago has some interesting FAs at forward to help the bottom 6.

  9. jonrmcleod says:

    I seriously like the idea of putting loyal readers/commenters of the blog on the radio show.

  10. GordM says:

    Regarding guests this week, can you see if Katz will come on to talk about how he feels if the Oilers supplant the Leafs as the team with the longest playoff drought in the NHL? Is he prepared to hold Kevin Lowe accountable for leading such a brutal team for this long?

    That would be great…thanks LT!!!!

  11. rich says:

    Wouldn’t mind it if you had Gregor, Willis or Dellow come on and talk about some of the stuff they’ve been posting – then invite someone from management – Tambi or Lowe to come on and explain how much they think the team has improved as a point/counterpoint. Could make for great radio.

    Certainly would be better than the game we’ll probably get tonight…

  12. sliderule says:

    LT
    Blueseatblogs .com has a very good item called the idiots guide to NHL forechecking systems.

    For those who are interested in the technical part of hockey it’s a very good introduction

    Well worth a look and could be a topic on your show some day

  13. denny33 says:

    I am in shock at Mr. Dellow’s numbers….

    Everyone except ST can see by eye the work of Petrell and Belanger…Belanger, like Mr. Whitney is embarrassing to watch. but the numbers behind our 2nd line are SHOCKING!

    To the defenders of Sam Gagner and Alice Hemsky….

    There really is not much left to say…except – pray that ST can get some kind of return for them this summer.

  14. FPB94 says:

    (Repost from the other thread)

    To me drafting Lazar is just asking to get punched in the face. At best he seems to be a Michael Grabner kind of guy, plus skating and scoring.
    I’l just say a number:
    4. (Most of them 1 or 2 times)
    That’s the number of guys who have cracked top 60 NHL scoring (usually 60 points) with their GP higher than their PTS by at least 5 in their draft year.
    Lucic (2X), Clowe, Laich, Burrows (undrafted)
    Most guys who don’t have offense in the juniors and ”get it” later on are because they play against men (Europe,NCAA) or are simply from some league where the competition doesn’t permit to properly evaluate (BCHL, swiss etc).
    Most guys who score under 60 points yearly (unless Lazar becomes the once every 3 draft kinda guy) can be traded for a 1st pick or under. So taking a 1st pick to try and draft this kind of guy is pretty ridiculous, especially when you have a draft that’s as loaded and you can take a 50 goal scorer or even a guy who scored a 100 points (even if he’s undersized).

    Smart teams get their 3rd liners on the cheap, via trade, FA, late round picks. Not their 1st rounders.

  15. Bar_Qu says:

    First off, I second JonR’s comment – and the Right Reverend McLeod might be a good interview for what is happening the beautiful part of Canada as far as prospects from Halifax go.

    Otherwise, I always enjoy an outsider’s perspective on what is going on, so getting a guy like Duhatschek or Friedman would be great. Both are smart and good interviews. It would be especially interesting to hear Friedman’s take on management and Taylor Hall. Plus, if you talked with Duhatschek you could start with his days as a music reviewer for the dailies- common interests and all that. ;-)

    Overall, I see this club collapsing into the finish. I think the LA/ANA games broke their spirit and can’t see them finishing any higher than 20th, more likely 23rd overall. I hope I’m wrong, but it would fit with what has happened the last two years and the Oilers have basically the same roster. Meaning the focus here on out is on the draft. And once again, we are finishing ‘worse’ than Calgary, in the sense they will have a shot at Jones/Drouin/Mackinnon, while the Oilers will take a lower pick higher to get another big body. One could hope for Monahan, but if he’s gone …. nervous times.

  16. Kitchener says:

    MGMT’s unspoken multi-year excuse (‘we suck on purpose to draft elite talent’) is over. At least the deadline inaction made this clear.

    Pro scouting has miserable results over several years. With the rebuild excuse gone, there’s nowhere for MGMT to hide.

    We’ll know a lot more about MGMT’s plan by September. In particular:
    – 89 & 83 here for the window or not?
    – how seriously do they want a Bishop-type backup?

    Here’s what I predict MGMT will choose:
    – Ryan Jones to become “the wiley vet”
    – 83 traded for an overpaid veteran D while the new D develop (replacing one vet with another while creating an opening on wing)
    – Yann Danis as the backup next year
    – a low-salary compliance buyout to free up a spot
    – Potter > Fistric
    – cups of coffee for Marincin & Rajala next season
    – Hartikainen in Edmonton full time
    – Zharkov to OKC
    – a draft targeting “specialists” instead of small/mid-sized well-rounded players
    – Petrell resigned for 1 year
    – Peckham gone

    I’m not saying this is what I’d recommend. Summarized: more “growth from within” except for one trade involving 83 or possibly 89.

  17. asiaoil says:

    As GM/President of the Edmonton Oilers – Kevin Lowe’s teams have missed the playoffs 8 out of the last 9 years – he still has his job. That is all.

  18. Lucinius says:

    Off topic of our badly run Oilers, but…

    Can someone explain what’s happening with Gardiner in Toronto? It looks like he’ll be getting scratched for today’s game as well. Has he really struggled that much from the sophomore slump, post-concussion issues, etc., or is there something else going on?

    I ask because I find it fairly interesting to see what’s happening there considering his year last year.

  19. commonfan14 says:

    Bar_Qu: Overall, I see this club collapsing into the finish. I think the LA/ANA games broke their spirit and can’t see them finishing any higher than 20th, more likely 23rd overall. I hope I’m wrong, but it would fit with what has happened the last two years and the Oilers have basically the same roster.

    Hall didn’t finish the season the last 2 years. I think he’s way more likely to get suspended again than to roll over.

  20. GordM says:

    asiaoil: As GM/President of the Edmonton Oilers – Kevin Lowe’s teams have missed the playoffs 8 out of the last 9 years – he still has his job. That is all.

    -With a Max Salary Cap budget at his disposal since the lockout
    -In a league where 53% of the team’s qualify for the playoffs

  21. denny33 says:

    rich,

    Excellent idea….

    Seriously, someone needs to corner management for an explanation….

  22. Bar_Qu says:

    commonfan14: Hall didn’t finish the season the last 2 years.I think he’s way more likely to get suspended again than to roll over.

    Hall and Dubnyk are essentially the only Oilers who took a step forward this year (debatable on Dubnyk, I agree, but he didn’t go backwards and played a lot more). Hall is playing with a fire to win, but it isn’t enough. I hope they do better than 5-2-2, but that is the high water mark for this team to finish up the season. It is more likely 4-3-2 or worse, leaving them at 45pts or lower. I think a lot of the teams around the Oilers at the bottom of the league do better than that, COL and CAL excluded.

  23. Captain Happy says:

    Lucinius:
    Off topic of our badly run Oilers, but…

    Can someone explain what’s happening with Gardiner in Toronto? It looks like he’ll be getting scratched for today’s game as well. Has he really struggled that much from the sophomore slump, post-concussion issues, etc.,or is there something else going on?

    I ask because I find it fairly interesting to see what’s happening there considering his year last year.

    Have watched virtually all Leaf games and Gardiner is getting healthy scratched for making pretty much the same mistakes you see Schultz making on a nightly basis.

    Difference is, Toronto has pretty good depth on D and Carlyle won’t tolerate that kind of play.

  24. FPB94 says:

    Bar_Qu,

    From ,916 to ,923 and getting a larger load of the work that is a step forward.

    Goaltending is the only reason this team isn’t dead in the playoff race.

  25. VanOil says:

    A slightly out in left field suggestion for the radio show Darren Dutchyshen. He is upbeat and entertaining and after another miserable season we could use a dose of that. He has a long history with the Oilers and can provide a prospective of how there rebuild is viewed from a distance.

  26. Hammers says:

    Don’t trade Hemsky untill deadline . Should start with RNH line , Gags MPS & Yak , Horc Hemmer & Hartski . Lander & Brown in final 5 . Dump the rest ( maybe keep Smyth ? ) . You need a center & 2 wingers . Petry, Smid, Schultz, Klefbom, Shultz elder ? question on Potter , Fistric & Peckham so they must add a ( Streit )or comparable. Dubbie + backup . BIGGEST NEED MANAGEMENT.

  27. Ice Sage says:

    How about an invite to Blathering Bloviating Brian Burke – bet he’d love the opportunity to gloat over how the Oilers have been ‘driven into the sewer’. He might try to hide behind the old ‘I’m involved with another team’ cloak but he never saw a microphone he couldn’t resist and at least he once got KLowe’s attention.

    I’d add Paajarvi, J Schultz & yakupov to the list of players who improved this year.
    The rest of the season is development time – these guys have earned extra opportunity.

  28. VanOil says:

    A blistering Whitney critique by Michael Parkatti at C&B

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/4/10/4207454/ryan-whitney-a-graphical-exploration-of-failure

    Amazing how the conclusions are similar to the link I posted yesterday from 5 years ago with the Penguins.

    http://icejunkies.blogspot.ca/2008/02/ryan-whitney-is-most-dangerous.html

    For those not inclined to follow links I feel this largely sums it up;

    “Let me put this more succinctly. Whitney has a raw Corsi of -178 on the season. In the games in which he’s played, the Oilers as a team have had a raw Corsi of -302. This means that Whitney has single-handedly accounted for 59% of the Oilers Corsi deficit in the games he’s played in. He’s handicapping the entire team’s ability to compete.”

    “Whitney plays hockey poorly. He makes his teammates worse and does not deserve to take a regular shift anymore. The Oilers would be a better team if Theo Peckham took his spot. Hell, they’d probably be a better team if Esa Tikkanen took his spot.”

  29. FrankenOil says:

    FPB94,

    I think you should really read some scouting reports and watch Lazar play before you compare him to a one-dimensional player. Lazar has been lauded by many (starting with his HC) for his defensive zone awareness and his ability to play in all 3 zones along with the fact he palys with a bit of an edge to his game. Your comment is just a microcosm of the vitriol people are spouting about a player they know very little about. ISS has Lazar at #11, so it’s not like every scouting organization has Lazar in the low 20′s and the Oil;ers would be reaching for him at around 8-10. A player who scores almost 40 goals playing 2nd line on a Memorial Cup team for 2 years prior to being drafted is a pretty special accomplishment. I’ve said this before, I feel bad for the kid because he’s already getting the Horcoff treatment just becuase he isn’t a “sexy” pick. McKenzie had Lazar in the Top-10 to start the year and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in the Top-15 in his final list.

  30. mc79hockey says:

    To the defenders of Sam Gagner and Alice Hemsky….
    There really is not much left to say…except – pray that ST can get some kind of return for them this summer.

    The collapse of this team below the first line has been so total that I kind of think that there’s something other than a problem with the players at play here. As I pointed out, a lot of these guys had decent Corsi track records, or at least not nearly this bad, and they’re getting fucking smoked. I think that’s kind of a defence of Gagner/Hemsky.

  31. bookje says:

    mc79hockey:
    To the defenders of Sam Gagner and Alice Hemsky….
    There really is not much left to say…except – pray that ST can get some kind of return for them this summer.

    The collapse of this team below the first line has been so total that I kind of think that there’s something other than a problem with the players at play here.As I pointed out, a lot of these guys had decent Corsi track records, or at least not nearly this bad, and they’re getting fucking smoked.I think that’s kind of a defence of Gagner/Hemsky.

    The Oilers have a terrible defence corp. This has a tremendous impact on play. The top line may be able to overcome this, but the others can not.

    Its difficult to know if they would still have issues with an NHL calibre defence.

  32. FrankenOil says:

    Allso, if the Oilers view him as their future 3rd line C, that means this team is keeping Gagner, which suits me just fine. Look at every Cup Winner, and you’ll see a 3rd line C who is key component of their team:

    LA: Stoll
    Bos: Kelly
    Chi: Bolland
    Pens: Jordan Staal
    DET: Filppula/Hudler
    ANA: Pahlsson/Marchant
    CAR: Matt Cullen/Doug Weight

    Lazar has shown that he has that elusive swagger and the ability to show up when it matters most and that is still something this club desperately needs. His “give-a-shit” meter is something I would love dearly on this team.

  33. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’m hopeful that Tambellini’s relative inactivity at the deadline is a tell on his status with Katz.

    The fact that he didn’t deal expiring contracts for futures leads me to believe that his fate may be tied to whether or not the Oil make the playoffs this year, or at the very least, show significant progress from last season.

    I think a GM more secure in his job security deals Whitney at the deadline (at the very least) and probably Jones as well.

    Whoever management is going forward, IMO Gagner and Hemsky HAVE to be dealt for the right pieces in return to balance this lineup. The fact that they’ve both disappeared during the crucible of this season should make that abundantly clear. They are vets after all and hopefully held to a higher standard of expectations than the kids? Unfortunately, I suspect the rest of the league sees these two as part or the Oiler disease too and not part of the cure.

    I am not at all confident that anyone currently in management has the brains necessary to pull off the blockbuster that’s needed here, but I do have two causes for optimism.

    1) We should be able to acquire a key piece or two from those teams struggling to get under the cap next year

    2) Gagner and Hemsky may not have the cache needed to bring back the starters we need in return, making point one above even more crucial, but one or both could be valuable enough to move us up in the draft to acquire either Jones or MacKinnon.

    Calgary in particular needs to restock their franchise with more than one prospect. Supposedly Feaster’s mandate is he has to make the playoffs next year. lol If Cowtown’s sitting at No. 2 in a position to draft Jones, would a package including Gagner and the Oil’s first possibly pry that pick loose – keeping in mind that Jay Feaster is a moron?

    I think Seth Jones cures 80% of what is ailing this team and if I’m the GM, I move heaven and earth to get that pick.

  34. Bag of Pucks says:

    FrankenOil:
    Allso, if the Oilers view him as their future 3rd line C, that means this team is keeping Gagner, which suits me just fine. Look at every Cup Winner, and you’ll see a 3rd line C who is key component of their team:

    LA: Stoll
    Bos: Kelly
    Chi: Bolland
    Pens: Jordan Staal
    DET: Filppula/Hudler
    ANA: Pahlsson/Marchant
    CAR: Matt Cullen/Doug Weight

    Lazar has shown that he has that elusive swagger and the ability to show up when it matters most and that is still something this club desperately needs. His “give-a-shit” meter is something I would love dearly on this team.

    FrankenOil, what do you see in Gagner that makes you think he’s as sound defensively as most of the players on that list?

  35. Bar_Qu says:

    FPB94:
    Bar_Qu,

    From ,916 to ,923 and getting a larger load of the work that is a step forward.

    Goaltending is the only reason this team isn’t dead in the playoff race.

    I agree Dubnyk is a key piece of the team and certainly has shown his value this season. There always seems to be an asterisk attached to any discussion around his play this season, so I wanted to make sure I didn’t say he made the same kind of progress Hall did this season. Dubnyk has been great. Not Hall great, but great.

  36. FPB94 says:

    FrankenOil,

    Meh. Which overrated player wasn’t lauded by his coach and famed for his ability to play in all zones? (Them Kyle Chipchuras)

    Historically, guys like him who can’t touch PPG just have a terrible conversion rate into top 2 liners in the NHL. It doesn’t change anything what his mom or his coach thinks. To me taking a top 10 pick to pick a guy who is 95% assured to be unable to be a 1st liner is dumb, because that’s often more than what you offer for a real 1st liner via trade.

    I’d rather take the guy who scored 50, is 6”4 and kept the pace in the playoffs then the guy who can’t crack his top line, is projected as a 3rd liner and struggled so far in the crunch.

  37. denny33 says:

    FPB94,

    Agreed. DD has stepped up to the plate…Taylor Hall…

    Really, people should be rioting in Edmonton….

    We have all played hockey with them….the guys that are great offensive players but are brutal in their own end. And the truth is -these players don’t care about defence.

    In Winnipeg, Phil Housley had nearly 100 points – passing the puck to rookie phenom Teamu Selanne…..

    Ladies and Gentlemen – Phil Housley finished the year MINUS 14.

    We have a few guys like Housley on the team…look great offensively…but in our own end are a disaster.

    It is not even a question anymore – the makeup of this hockey team has to change…

    Both articles completely dispel ANY notion of the team ‘progressing’…..

  38. Lois Lowe says:

    I think getting someone from Toronto like Mirtle or PPP would be pretty good. Also maybe someone who is knowledgable about the new CBA and can talk about what teams are going to have to do moving forward. Is there a good St. Louis blogger out there? Bruce Arthur and Colby Cosh could also be interesting.

  39. Kitchener says:

    Folks, drafting Lazar solves nothing:

    Lazar: 6′ 189lbs
    Rieder: 5’11 190 lbs
    Gagner: 5’10 191 lbs

    “Compete” / “Heart” / “Secondary scoring” / “2C/3C” is all hot air. MGMT wants 6’2″ 205+ to surround 4/93/14/64/19.

    Drafting Lazar after trading Rieder is the most idiotic thing I’ve heard all week.

  40. denny33 says:

    VanOil,

    Great post. People need to read this…

    Ryan Whitney can’t skate – that has been evident since week 1.

    Fans should try to place themselves outside of their team….look at Parkatti’s stuff and think – what do other people think of our organization? ( Whitney’s play and effort called out on Naitonal TV )

    After a month or so,,,it was not even about Ryan Whitney anymore.

    For me, it was about Ryan Whitney continually being *allowed* to put an Oiler jersey on.

  41. FrankenOil says:

    FPB94,

    Chipchura had 15 goals in his draft year, while Lazar had 38. Somehow that comparison doesn’t hold water.

  42. FPB94 says:

    FrankenOil,

    Well, there’s always Grabner who’s a bit closer. If you want to look at comparables you can check the draft history for guys who coudln’t crack a PPG by more than 5 points, and usually they never end up as a 1st liner. (Except 1 guy ever 2-3 drafts like mentionned above). On the other end there’s a plethora of guys who don’t make it.

    As for goals I haven’t really checked if the disrepancy really matters or is positive (altough i’m led to believe so)

  43. FrankenOil says:

    Hands up, how many people here would be happy to get a Brandon Sutter type player in the 1st round?

    Sutter went 11th and went 71GP 20G 31A in his draft year.

  44. Genjutsu says:

    Kitchener,

    Lazar is 18 those guys are 2 and 5 years older he’ll get bigger.

    But I think they have a shot better C. Its such a nice looking draft this year I’m super glad not to get in and get crushed.

    I think the players needed the confidence of management not sell the UFA guys at the deadline. At the same time it would have been foolish to give up assets at the deadline. Elliot’s 30 thoughts has a nice quote about waiting spending until the team is good.

  45. FPB94 says:

    FrankenOil,

    20-37-57. Quite off. Even if you,d be happy with Sutter that doesn’t mean it’s intelligent. I’m pretty sure a N10 pick can fetch you a Sutter now, so taking a chance at maybe having a Sutter is a waste.

  46. Woodguy says:

    I’d like to suggest Eric Tulsky as a guest.

    He’s doing some consulting with NHL teams.

    While he probably won’t be able to discuss many things in specifics, he may be able to talk in enough generalities to give us some insight as to what fancy stats NHL teams are using. At least the ones that use them.

    Also his lay of the land when it comes to the disparity between NHL teams using advanced metrics.

    Would also like his take on getting the battles won/lost, give a pass/take a pass stats and if he knows how to track them other than manually.

  47. cabbiesmacker says:

    Biggest question right now might be if the best thing we as Oiler fans can hope for is another tank over the next 9.

    I’d like to see them stay in the battle if only to show the younger players a never say die mantra.

    Redo the top 6 and give them monster minutes.

    4 – 93 – 14

    91 – 10 – 83

    Gagner and Yak on the PP and subbing occasionally for spent top 6, OR they can just sit on the bench with crayons and kraft paper drawing up plays. Lots of circles and lines that go nowhere in particular.

  48. FrankenOil says:

    Grabner doesn’t really fit a comparable player type. I’ll grant that Chipchura a strong, all around player coming out of junior is a worthwhile comparison. Same goes for Sutter, Jordan Staal, etc. I’m basically looking for comparisons of guys who matched Lazar’s profile a bit in terms of top-10 picks. That is to say, centres who don’t have what is considered elite skill.

  49. asiaoil says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    Biggest question right now might be if the best thing we as Oiler fans can hope for is another tank over the next 9.

    I’d like to see them stay in the battle if only to show the younger players a never say die mantra.

    Redo the top 6 and give them monster minutes.

    4 – 93 – 14

    91 – 10 – 83

    Gagner and Yak on the PP and subbing occasionally for spent top 6, OR they can just sit on the bench with crayons and kraft paper drawing up plays. Lots of circles and lines that go nowhere in particular.

    I’d prefer the following lines as these could be a decent 1-2 next year.

    4 – 93 – 14

    91 – 10 – 64

    Don’t care about the other lines as they are a complete disaster. Over the summer the #1 pick, Gagner, Hemmer and everyone else not listed on the lines listed above are gone or trade bait. The entire bottom six needs to be fixed and we need a top pair dman. We could have gotten at least half of this large task out of the way last summer and during this season – but our mgmt was too busy feeling proud about snagging Schulz to get anything else accomplished.

    In reality they probably resign Jones, Petrell and Gagner – do an overpay for a washed up PF for too many years – then go back to their good old boy crib game in the lunch room on Kingsway.

  50. VOR says:

    Denny, VanOil

    Corsi-Tut has spoken – Ryan Whitney must die.

    You and Michael might like to try reading some David Johnson and look at the WWOY data for Whitney at stats.hockeyanalysis.com.

    You are all assuming something that is utterly unproven – that individual corsi numbers are predictive. At the last two Sloan conferences top experts have suggested that is not the case. Johnson himself believes (and many of us not blinded by a worship of Corsi-Tut agree) that as data accumulates actual outcomes are more predictive of future outcomes than corsi on or corsi relative.

    So for a mommet forget corsi when you are lookking at the WWOY data and just look at GF/20, GA/20, and GF20% in the WWOY for Whitney and for our top two lines of players with and with-out him. He and his partner Corey Potter turn Eberle, Hall, and RNH into out-scorers and Justin and Nick Schultz turn them into corsi wonders who get outscored quite badly. Hmm, I kind of thought outscoring the other team was important but I guess according to the three of you it isn’t. By the way Petry and Smid with Hall, Ebs, and RNH is your third best choice.

    Now look at the second line and lets define that as Gagner, Paajarvi, and Hemsky. Your best outcomes come from using Jeff Petry and Ladi Smid with them, the second best from using Whitney and Potter, the third best from Justin Schultz and Nick Schultz.

    Now look at the third line. Let us call it Horcoff, Yakupov, and Smyth. Here Justin Schultz and Nick Schultz are your best choice followed by Petry and Smid, then Whitney and Potter. Now given that is the best options based on outcomes how does Ralph deploy the troops? Not optimally that is for sure.

    At this point a very good argument could be made that the development time for Justin Schultz with top end help may well have cost us the playoffs. Misusing Whitney is a consequence of that. Blaming Whitney for how the coach decided to deploy the players is a great example of two logical mistakes.

    The first is assuming that which is not proven to prove your argument. I am still waiting for anybody to post a paper proving corsi or corsi relative are predictive of anything about individual hockey players. They are certainly descriptive of how a coach uses his players.

    The second logical flaw is not allowing for confirmation bias. You start out with a conclusion and then find data to support it. That is a no-no. I think you may well all be victims of the wrath of Corsi-Tut.

  51. hunter1909 says:

    bookje: Its difficult to know if they would still have issues with an NHL calibre defence.

    You must mean like Cogliano, who’s now a perfectly servicable if overpriced midget hockey player.

    Any hope of replacing the Oiler’s management with the Ducks? And hire everyone associated with their “media presence”?

  52. Gerta Rauss says:

    Hall/Nugent-Hopkins/Eberle
    Paajarvi/Gagner/Yakupov
    Smyth/Horcoff/Hemsky
    Brown/Smithson/Petrell

    Smid/Petry
    N.Schultz/J.Schultz
    Whitney/Fistric

    Dubnyk

    ———————–
    Gregor posted these lines over at ON-I like the look of that 2nd line…I’d like to see them run with that for the rest of the year and see if Yak fits in that spot.

  53. mc79hockey says:

    Hall and Whitney have played 113:34 together this year at 5v5. They have a Corsi share of 46.5%. They look to have been on the ice for 7 GF and 1 GA. Obviously, their PDO together is through the roof.

    Am I to take it, VOR, that you think that if they played together for say, 15 minutes a night and 82 games a year, they’d score 76 GF and allow 11 GA?

  54. hunter1909 says:

    For what little it’s worth, Western Canadian teams have the worst NHL media imaginable; a combination of stale in house arena music, embarrassingly out to lunch homer announcers, and worst of all, color commentators who aren’t punch drunk ex players.

  55. mc79hockey says:

    Oh, and for what it’s worth: Hall/Whitney got worked over when they were on the ice together last year at GF/GA, with Hall doing worse with Whitney than virtually anyone else. They sucked at Corsi again too.

  56. hunter1909 says:

    If Oilers management weren’t such a motley collection of hicks, they’d offer Paulina Gretzky a high level media job.

    Pat Quinn could double with her, lol.

  57. B S says:

    Easy solution for the gaps in the Oilers’ lineup (4th line, D, backup goaltending) clone Hall. Argue “team makeup” if you want but I’m pretty sure a team of Taylor Halls (with Yakupov as goaltender of course) wins you a championship. The problem for the Oilers isn’t just a lack of ability, it’s a lack of heart outside the kids.

    The Oilers current problem isn’t their top 6, or rather it won’t be going forward. Hall, Nuge and Ebs have already established themselves as a top line and will reach that ‘elite’ status as they gain experience, confidence, and strength. Gagner, MPS, and Yakupov can provide that secondary scoring and I think once Yakupov has a summer of conditioning and training with Krueger’s systems that line will tread water at evens (give as good as they take) and do better with a push at zone starts. As these kids get older they’ll start to stick up for themselves more, Hall is already pushing back and Nuge will start hitting again once his shoulder heals/repairs. Gagner has shown he will stick up for his teammates and a few times already late this season Yak has taken a few numbers while MPS has already covered for him. What the Oilers need are good, big, and most importantly MEAN bottom 6 players who can move up the lineup when teams like SJ start pushing the forwards around, take a suspension and not hamper the team. Jones (despite some defensive problems) fits this, Brown can’t keep up with the top 6 but has been willing to step up.

    Also I sign Gagner at a cap hit no greater than $4.5 mil, if you can get it with term great, if not fine, but he’s riding a hot season, that is considerably shortened. If he regresses back to a 45 point player I don’t think you can trade him at $5+ mil./ year but other teams would be willing to bite on a trade if it’s less. I think that’s how the Oilers need to approach their contract negotiations, what can he be signed for with term and still be traded if he regresses? Anyone know who his agent is?

    Regarding the Draft: I think Lazar will be a good player, but no way in hell should you be taking a player PROJECTED as a solid 3rd liner in the first round, It’s the Moroz problem all over again, He could be that greasy bottom six, but better players are available who could still low end as that player. You take the kid (Barkov, Mantha, Mackinnon) projected as a top 6, then play him with his bottom end being good 3rd liner.

    Maybe it’s just me, but Monohan just sounds like another Sam Gagner. Small center with some skill. 2 way play in junior rarely seems to translate to the NHL and one facet struggles for the first few seasons. I’d rather have Gagner. If the Oilers are going to draft for need Lindholm, Mantha, or Ristolainen all look like better bets. I will also say that from a continuous competitive strategy standpoint, the Oilers 1st round picks should be almost taboo for trades. These guys typically turn into NHL players, and have a low cost for the first few years of their careers.

  58. cabbiesmacker says:

    Gerta Rauss:

    Hall/Nugent-Hopkins/Eberle

    Paajarvi/Gagner/Yakupov

    I like the look of that 2nd line…I’d like to see them run with that for the rest of the year and see if Yak fits in that spot.

    You’re like me Gerta. I don’t WANT to watch a train wreck but I can’t look away either.

    Could we nickname line #2 The Titanic Line? – headed downward the moment they hit the ice?

    This is not commentary on 91 and 64 either. More so the hemophiliac centering them.

  59. godot10 says:

    Hemsky is never going to bring back the Oilers much in a trade. If the Oilers are lucky, they will get a 2nd round draft pick at the trade deadline next year.

    1) Kekelainen just chose Gaborik over Hemsky. And Gaborik is as injury-prone as Hemsky.
    2) McPhee just chose Erat over Hemsky, and paid a hefty price.
    3) Don Maloney is desperate for offense in Phoenix, and has defensemen coming out of his wazoo, and he won’t bite.

    As for the 2nd line’s Corsi problems, Krueger, to his credit, has NOT protected anyone this year. He coaches from a place of truth. Until this year, Gagner has always been protected to some extent (except for periods of time when Renney threw him to the wolves).

    A) I’d actually like to see Paajarvi-Gagner-Hartikainen as a line next year. I think this would suit Gagner far better. I think Gagner needs a cycler (Hartikainen) rather than a one-on-one rush player (Hemsky). Who needs Horton, when you have Hartikainen?
    B) I’d like Yak with Horcoff next year. The Oilers would have to find a left wing though. Maybe its Smyth. Glencross would look awfully good here.
    C) I’d really look to trade Hemsky this summer, which will be hard to do and hard to get a decent return, so I could do A and B.

  60. rickithebear says:

    VOR: So for a mommet forget corsi when you are lookking at the WWOY data and just look at GF/20, GA/20, and GF20% in the WWOY for Whitney and for our top two lines of players with and with-out him. He and his partner Corey Potter turn Eberle, Hall, and RNH into out-scorers and Justin and Nick Schultz turn them into corsi wonders who get outscored quite badly.

    Finally spoken how i wish I could.!

  61. DBO says:

    With waiver eligibility, old dudes hopefully not re-signed, and the ones we can’t get rid of I hope to see them actually roll 3 scoring lines. thereby sheltering our 4th line as much as possible and allowing the 1st line to play even bigger minutes next year. It means the org does not get anyone next year for up front. to be honest, I think that is their plan. Let’s give them only 1 or 2 things to look for, so that in mind I hope they go get some real dmen. and a backup goalie. I can live with the forwards if needed

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Paajarvi-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Harsky-Gagner-Yakupov
    Smyth-Lander-Brown

    Harksy and Lander have high “give a shit and piss off the other team” levels., Something we need on this roster. The size is more spread out, and hopefully with a reduced role Smyth can still be somewhat effective. Yes we would be better with a slid two way winger with size and grit but doubt we find one. Funny thing is that is our best possible lineup, and we could have it right now but are stuck with terrible vets like Jones, Petrell and Belanger (heard he is skating. Hope they waive him and pray someone picks him up due to injuries and playoff need – best case scenario for both parties).

  62. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    David Johnson writes some interesting stuff, but you have to be careful that you are not just praying to your own anti-Tut-corsi.

    When David is looking at predictiong goals, he usually finds his data starts giving good answers after 2+ years of data.

    This can be predicted because goals are much more rare and subject to luck than shooting rates and it would take a much larger sample to be predictive.

    In fact, David says this in one his posts about the subject:

     When dealing with less than a full season of data, corsi/fenwick may still be the preferred stat when evaluating offensive performance.

    Its from this post:

    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2011/05/30/goal-rates-better-than-corsifenwick-in-player-evaluation/

    David is far less anti-corsi than you are.

  63. Captain Obvious says:

    Here are things that are obvious.

    1) The currency of goals is the only thing that matters in hockey.
    2) Actual goals is the best indicator of the skill at producing this currency.
    3) The number of goal events is too small to make predictions solely on the basis of goals.

    The only question is at one point does the number of goal events reach a sufficient size to be more predictive than Fenwick or SF/SA (which are both superior to Corsi)?

    That’s the question I would like Vor to answer.

    My own view is that the answer to this question is different for offense than defense because GF is highly dependent on individual skill, while GA is highly dependent on a combination of goalie skill and opponents skill.

    Which is why my system uses points on offense with a component for SF to reduce variance on offense, and SA on defense.

    Finally, to Vor’s point on teammate effects, this has to be accounted for whether or not you use goals or shots, so I’m not quite sure how this is a criticism of corsi specifically.

  64. jb says:

    Any predictions on Gagner? It’s a perfect sell high scenario this summer. If signed what kinda number should we expect to see/hope to see?

    You have guys like David Backes, making 4.75 a year and he brings quite a bit more to the table than Gagner.

    Mike Ribero is a decent comp with a good 10 years on Gagner, making 5M a year.

    If resigning Gagner I think you offer 4-4.5 range and nothing more. Anything more than 7% of the cap is too much for what he brings imo.

    I think he’s most likely to be dealt this summer.

  65. speeds says:

    FrankenOil:
    FPB94,

    Chipchura had 15 goals in his draft year, while Lazar had 38. Somehow that comparison doesn’t hold water.

    For the sake of argument, Chipchura had 33 assists in his draft year. Lazar had 34 assists in his two years combined pre-draft.

    BTW, I’m not necessarily saying goals aren’t more valuable, or that Lazar isn’t as good a prospect, just adding another stat.

    I think Lazar’s assist totals are something that would greatly interest me were I a team looking to pick him. Maybe there is a good explanation, but those are unusually low assist totals for a CHL F viewed as a top 10-15 pick.

  66. VanOil says:

    VOR,

    Since you don’t think puck possession matters. I thought about refuting your claim that Whitney helps any team he has played on win more than they lose by reviewing how many game losing goals Whitney has made the primary mistake on versus how many game winning goals he has scored. But this seems more torturous than watching an afternoon Coyotes game when they have an early 1 goal lead.

    I accept your premise that Corsi should not be the only means to evaluate a player and that is a better measure of team success than individual success. I would not draft or trade for a player based on his Corsi number like some would be tempted to do with a more individual stat like a baseball players on-base%. I also accept that scoring goals is important. I firmly believe preventing goals is also important, all the more so for a defender. Having possession of the puck is a good way of preventing the other team from scoring and Corsi is a good way to to measure puck possession.

    You seem to be OK with Corsi being used as a way to evaluate a team. Oilers SF/SA as a team sucks, which is also backed up by the standings. So if Whitney is a major contributor to this poor team result as an individual and has a negative impact on his fellow individual players in this regards it is probably a relevant point. If by your analysis Whitney is an offensive scoring dynamo that helps teams win games, great. He does not help the Oilers win games. Nor did he help his previous teams.

    For a seen it good scenario; Whitney’s long break out pass excites fans, players and GMs alike. It even leads to some goals. The Ryan Jones’ of the world live and wait for these occasions. I would posit that a team would be duller and more efficient if they did not go for this long bomb, hail mary, or route one style play as a matter of course. Instead they should focus on a 10ft Schultz Sr pass to a player like RNH or Paajarvi who is back covering in the defensive zone not lollygagging at center because a vaunted puck moving defenseman is back there. Hence Whitney’s poor effect on his team mates, the temptation of the high risk play.

  67. VanOil says:

    hunter1909:
    For what little it’s worth, Western Canadian teams have the worst NHL media imaginable; a combination of stale in house arena music, embarrassingly out to lunch homer announcers, and worst of all, color commentators who aren’t punch drunk ex players.

    John Shorthouse and John Garrett do provide excellent tips on where to eat hot wings in the cities they visit during nearly every game. Surely this culinary travel advise must be worth some consideration.

  68. VOR says:

    MC79,

    No I don’t. My point was that the math says that at this stage in a season goal differential and other result metrics are somewhat better predictors of future events for the remainder of the season than derived statistics of any kind. Thus, Hall and Whitney are as a logical proposition a better bet than say Hall and Petry in the next nine games.

    Additionally, in over 240 minutes Whitney has played with Hall, Eberle, RNH, Hemsky, Gagner, and Paajarvi they each have better results in terms of GF% than when he doesn’t play with them. Only Potter can make the same claim. None of the other Oilers regular D get equally good outcomes across all six top line players. If Whitney is shit and corsi is the Holy Grail what magical alchemy allows him to make them all better at outscoring?

    Good PDO, maybe, but that then means Whitney must be having bad luck with the other players who are on the ice when he plays like crap. Oh wait, you probably didn’t mean to claim that Whitney’s bad play is bad luck now did you? But it flows logically from your assumption his good outcomes are the result of good luck. You can’t have it both ways. Luck is either the master of outcomes or irrelevant. I

  69. rickithebear says:

    mc79hockey: Hall and Whitney have played 113:34 together this year at 5v5. They have a Corsi share of 46.5%. They look to have been on the ice for 7 GF and 1 GA. Obviously, their PDO together is through the roof.Am I to take it, VOR, that you think that if they played together for say, 15 minutes a night and 82 games a year, they’d score 76 GF and allow 11 GA?

    A players 2nd wing or center option is around 25% TOI.
    25% value for the 3rd line TOI average is the minimum.
    nice thing you can go 2-3 years and get values that equate to 25% of a seasons TOI.

    At the start of the year. everyone was predicting line options.
    i said then and I say now Bowman’s matched C-W pairs.

    Using WOWY i looked for best GD ratios for C-W pairs and GF in the .9 or better.

    Gagner -Smyth 1.308GF/20 and +70% GD
    Horcoffs – Hall .913GF/20 and 61.8% GD was halls best option.
    RNH/ Ryan Smyth but Eberle 1.084GF/20 and 59.3% GD

    So the top 9:
    Hall-Horc-XXX
    Smyth-Gagner-XXX
    XXX-RNH-Eberle

    Try and fill the wing positions using WOWY 10-11 to 12-13.
    The weak forwards become clear.
    Though there is an interesting W-W WOWY.

  70. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    No I don’t. My point was that the math says that at this stage in a season goal differential and other result metrics are somewhat better predictors of future events for the remainder of the season than derived statistics of any kind.

    But its not.

    Read the link to David Johnson’s post that I linked and the paragraph that I bolded.

  71. mc79hockey says:

    My point was that the math says that at this stage in a season goal differential and other result metrics are somewhat better predictors of future events for the remainder of the season than derived statistics of any kind. Thus, Hall and Whitney are as a logical proposition a better bet than say Hall and Petry in the next nine games.

    I am virtually certain that your statement about the math is incorrect here. They’ve played 113 minutes together and have an off the charts PDO.

    Good PDO, maybe, but that then means Whitney must be having bad luck with the other players who are on the ice when he plays like crap. Oh wait, you probably didn’t mean to claim that Whitney’s bad play is bad luck now did you? But it flows logically from your assumption his good outcomes are the result of good luck. You can’t have it both ways. Luck is either the master of outcomes or irrelevant.

    What’s that saying about when you assume? I’m happy to say that if Whitney’s results are markedly worse than we’d expect from his Corsi in certain percentages that he’s been unlucky. Doesn’t mean he doesn’t suck, just that he doesn’t suck as bad as the goal data suggests.

  72. FPB94 says:

    FrankenOil,

    Well that’s the thing tough, outside of Jordan Staal (even then) do you really believe that pick can’t fetch a player that fits the bill, or better ? Why take a pick and have a shot at guy if you can trade and get better.

    IMO Martin Erat is an excellent 2 way forward and the whole NHL cried scandal when he was traded for Filip Forsberg.

  73. VOR says:

    You do all know that in terms of CF% two out of three years Hall has been better with Whitney than without. Same for Eberle. Both years of RNH’s young career he gets better actual productivity with Whitney than without. I love how MC79 didn’t mention that first season they played together, Hall and Whitney. Just slipped his mind I guess. By the way, the one year Hall didn’t play better with Whitney he still excelled at scoring goals. Whitney was the best partner for Hall of any Oiler D with more than 100 minutes playing with Hall if all you wanted was to score goals.

    So Woodguy, MC79, Van Oil, – Whitney has a positive effect in the real world of outscoring on our top line and it is remarkably consistent over the careers of these young men. He and Eberle have outscored the opposition when playing together. 2 of 3 years Eberle has been a better outscorer with Whitney than without him. He has been Nugent Hopkins best match both years. Yet their collective corsi (Whitney and the young men in question) has been terrible. I am still waiting for one of you to explain that.

    Mind you it might be a good idea if you explain why in 2009-10 Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan were better with Whitney than without him? Maybe Vanoil who claims Whitney has always been terrible can explain how in 2007-08 Whitney managed to improve the productivity of two of the leagues best, Malkin and Crosby. Yet Whitney’s corsi has always been terrible. Isn’t that supposed to be impossible – horrible corsi player who makes talented players better while sinking their corsi like he was an anchor? The only year we have data for where he doesn’t ignite the offence of great players is 2008-2009 as he struggles to recover from foot surgery. He wasn’t as good at producing this effect last year than this year. Wait, wasn’t he recovering (or not) from career ending surgery. Didn’t LT assure us earlier this year that Whitney was sliding right out of the NHL?

    Then we don’t move him at the trade deadline and our management is shit. Perhaps the young Boys on the Bus like scoring goals and outscoring and winning and know excatly who is on the ice with them when the magic happens? Maybe management doesn’t really want to explain to their superstars why corsi matters more than results?

  74. rickithebear says:

    Mc79:
    15 minute and 82 game forwards.

    From the 07-08 to 11-12 season, on average,
    7 players have achieved that each season.

    I expect hall to achieve this some day
    to this point he has never done this.

    I expected you to be better than imply know untruths.

    Especially since you attacked me on the vary issue yesterday.

    The traditional trite belief is lawyers are two faced hipocritical liers.
    Way to perpitrate the Stereotype.

    One Day! It took one day!

  75. cabbiesmacker says:

    rickithebear:
    Mc79:
    15 minute and 82 game forwards.

    From the 07-08 to 11-12 season,on average,
    7 players have achieved that each season.

    I expect hall to achieve this some day
    to this point he has never done this.

    I expected you to be better than imply know untruths.

    Especially since you attacked me on the vary issue yesterday.

    The traditional trite belief is lawyers are two faced hipocritical liers.
    Way to perpitrate the Stereotype.

    One Day!It took one day!

    Readies popcorn and adjusts LazyBoy

  76. VOR says:

    MC79,

    I guess Ryan Whitney must be awfully lucky every time he is vaguely healthy and plays with good players? I assume you will now post so we can all see it the paper, post, etc. that proves PDO is predictive of anything. For your argument to be anything more than empty rhetoric PDO needs to regress to the mean. That is you are saying Hall and Whitney can’t maintain their torrid pace of the last three years because it is all just unsustainable PDO. I assume you have resarch that shows that is true that no individual player or no two playvers can maintain a PDO over 1000 over say 48 games, or 80, or a career. If no such evidence exists then once again you have resorted to using the unproven in an argument.

  77. FPB94 says:

    VOR,

    Great players usually have a +10% shooting so i’d guess some guys go above and beyond each year. But then again I’m guessing

    Crosby: 1062 (12-13) 1052 (12-11) 1043 (11-10) 1000 (10-09) 1014 (09-08)

  78. VOR says:

    Woodguy,

    I didn’t say I was anti-corsi. Now apparently we are putting words in other peoples mouths. I actually think corsi is a strong predictor of performance for forwards as a population and when you are looking at the forward vs his entire team. When people said that Hall, Eberle, and RNH’s relative corsi suggested they would start getting some goals I agreed with them whole-heartedly. I don’t think it works anywhere near as well for defencemen. I think the idea you all have in your head that Whitney is shit and Justin Schultz (who I think is going to be a superb player for years to come, possibly one of the all time greats) is walking on water because of their corsi in isolation is absurd. Whitney has a better +/-, a better +/-/60, nearly indentical goals for/60, much better goals against per 60, is a better option for both our top lines in terms of outcomes than Justin and actually out corsi’s him with our second line.

    So far what I have got from people in response to my posts amounts to “we know what we are talking about and you don’t”. “We can explain that away.” All I am asking for is the proof that corsi is a valid predictor for individual performance. Hell is it even a valid proxy for possession, a fact which you all take for granted? I believe it is true but I have never seen compelling evidence.

    Your problem is when corsi is out of the mix all you can say for proving Whitney is a shit player becomes “I saw him bad”. The math, sadly, says he is a specialist with a specialist’s skills and they haven’t atrophied as much as all of you are assuming. He has just not been given the chance to display his best thing. Making good and great players more productive is what made him such a high draft choice and has kept in the league all these years. Truthfully his skating and defence have always been sub-standard. Maybe he is permanently damaged but we might also be about to give up a still valuable player for nothing.

  79. mc79hockey says:

    For your argument to be anything more than empty rhetoric PDO needs to regress to the mean.

    I’ve shown this repeatedly for like five years. The mean will be different with different players – give me a four man unit and have them play half the time with Crosby and half the time with Stortini and they’re going to have a higher S%/PDO with Crosby – but you’re assuming that they don’t regress.

    I’ve got serious doubt that defencemen make a significant impact on S% myself but I suppose that remains to be seen. The work that people like Johnson has done has been more in respect of forwards. I did something recently looking at defencemen. I sorted the guys with 3000+ minutes over the last five years into by the ratio of goals on which they get assists. The groups are pretty much exactly as you’d expect – lots of known puck movers up high, lots of guys with feet for hands down low. The key chart is this, which shows a minor difference in S% between the guys who are puck movers and the guys who aren’t and a more significant difference in SF/60. I haven’t controlled for who those guys play with, which would bring the S% even closer together, I suspect.

    IIRC, Ryan Whitney has like the highest on-ice S% of the last five years amongst guys who’ve played at least 3000 minutes and it’s way out there. A large chunk of that relate to his time with Sid/Malkin, it seems. He has generated his offence in a way that basically no other defenceman in the league seems to generate offence. The last two years, IIRC, his on-ice S% is way down. So yeah, I’m, not inclined to bet on a small sample size with him and Hall when he gets slaughtered with everyone else and spends his time buried in his own end. I look forward to seeing your spreadsheet.

    Also, Rickithebear – seriously bud, the adults are talking. Run along.

  80. rickithebear says:

    cabbiesmacker: Readies popcorn and adjusts LazyBoy

    Yesterdays personal attack!
    Made me think about how I comment!
    How I present data.

    i will not be “you better be accurate too” guy.
    That one was reserved for someone who called me a liar.

    Short and to the point.

  81. FPB94 says:

    mc79hockey,

    Dat comment. Way to ruin your whole post in 1 line.

  82. LoDog says:

    Shocker, mc79 shows he is a jerk and backs up his not very convincing arguments with I suspect and I doubt.

  83. rickithebear says:

    mc79hockey: Also, Rickithebear – seriously bud, the adults are talking. Run along.

    Don’t you mean hypocrite talking!

    I looked at your review of PDO.
    A measure like PDO says that there will be equal regression to the Mean.

    It regresses to range not a mean.
    you state a 70/10000th varince in PDO number.
    excluding the 8% shooting %.
    there is a 65/10000th variance in save%
    by the end of the season
    PDO says it is Equal Performance. (the mean)

    PDO says that a goalie on the top of the range .916Sv% + .00325 = .91925 SV%
    and a goalie on the bottom of the range .916 SV% – .00325 = .91275 SV%
    all have the same performance data.
    .913 to .919SV% goalies are exactly the same.

    So a whole year of Data does not take us to a real mean.
    We end up with a range that lumps a large portion of variant goalie performance as the same.

    Why such a big Range?
    oops!
    I mean mean!

  84. Kris11 says:

    Vor,

    You have a chip on your shoulder, dude.

    Seriously, the aggresivetone of your rhetoric is wholly unnecessary and unjustfied. Sure, maybe somebody tried to belittle your take on Corsi, but that’s no reason to return fire on everyone who holds some set of beliefs about Corsi that you disagree with.

    Tone it down and play nice. You’ll find that you catch more flies with sugar than vinegar. Tyler and WG seem pretty ready to cite facts and argue reasonably with you.

    IMO, you are attacking a strawman. No one thinks that Corsi alone, with no context, is a particularly great predictor of future success for a player. I guess Corsi-without context is a bit better than +/- withoiut context, but that is saying very little.

    What most people here (and around the well-informed Stazi parts of the hockey blogosphere more generally) like to look at Corsi more than GF,GA,or+/- becasuse there are far more shot events than goal events in a game and so any sample of +/- data will show wildly misleading variations unless you have a very big sample of games (maybe 1.5 seasons or more). On the other hand 20 or so games of Corsi gives you a pretty big record of shot events and so the effect of randomness is smoothed out.)

    Indeed, by the time you have enough goal events to determine if a player is a reliably good goal scorer going forward, and not just a lucky shooter or the beneficiary of sweet minutes, that player has either developed into a better player, aged into a worse one, or left due to free agency or trade, etc. Hockey fans need stats that they can use to make a fun guess about how much MPS is likely to score next year so as to evaluate what a good cap hit for him would look like, and we don’t have that much data on MPS. (Note how wildly our estimations of him or predictions about his offense would have varied if we’d based them on his goal production alone.)

    But there may be a valid criticism of what some people think you could use Corsi to do beneath your invective. IMO, we’ll never be able to come up with a single formula that we plug, say, Corsi QualComp, QualTeam, and Zoneshit in to get a single number that will be a reliable predictor of any player’s future success. That is sort of what QB rating is aiming at and I doubt we do have it for hockey players or that we should even aim at having it.

    In Book Three of the Nichomachean Ethics, Aristotle says “We should not pretend that there is more precision in a subject than it admits.” This is wise. The anti-stats people are wrong to say stats won’t help us make good predictions about players. But the overly reductive stats people (not Tyler, WG, Vic, or lots of others) are wrong to think that you’ll be able to find a single number (say some function of RelCorsi) that predicts all players correctly.

    What we do and what we should do is try to use contextual numbers about zonestart and zoneshift and SH% and TOI and QualTeam, age and injury, on a casuistic, case-by-case basis to evaluate what a player’s Corsi numbers mean for that player.

    Is there some degree of subjectivity in that process of evaluating Corsi numbers in context? Absolutely. There is no formula for how to view Corsi in the context of numbers and so different people will disagree about how to do the contextualizing for any single player. Is there a place for what we see by eye, on the ice in that process? Absolutely.

    Part of the case against Whitney is that his foot is ruined. We all see it by eye, Part of the case for Hemsky is that he has a history of better Corsi numbers in other contexts and seems to be healthy and doing a lot of things well on the ice.

    No one here is arguing that there is a deductively valid argument saying: Player one has Corsi X, therefore Player 1 sucks, regardless of anything else.

  85. Kris11 says:

    RIcki is not behaving like a saint.

    I find his unwillingness to take the time to try to explain his arguments and/or show where he is getting his data (which WG and I have asked for politely a zillion times) while suggesting his data and arguments show we are all crazily wrong, to be pretty rude and dismissive of all the time that the rest of us take to show our work.

    Not showing your work, and then talking about how right you are, and how wrong others who have put hours trying to write something that easy to read and informative is pretty rude and deserves a bit of a rhetorical smack down.

  86. commonfan14 says:

    It would be fun watching people find things to argue about if the Oil go 7-2 and the Wings go 4-5 over the next 18 days.

  87. B S says:

    I think there is a serious misunderstanding among sports bloggers (and I do mean in general) about what stats are. 1st, Stats are not real; that is to say, they are not what has or is really happening. Statistics are (by definition) a numerical and mathematical proxy. They are an attempt to approximate events, or phenomena, that are either too large a scale, or too complicated to to accurately define and describe exactly. When you are looking at a statistic you need to ask A) what is this a proxy of, B) how does this approximate, and C) based on that, what biases can enter the data that influence its accuracy.

    Case in point. Corsi is meant to be a proxy for possession, not goal scoring, not winning. It uses shot attempts to estimate puck possession. This means that Corsi assumes that players shoot the puck after possessing it for an equal amount of time across all players. Therefore Corsi can be biased by players who hold onto the puck for extended periods of time before shooting (i.e. wait to take their shot), or shoot very soon after getting the puck (throw the puck on net as they enter the zone). Or if a player has linemates who do either of these. In these cases puck possession, and Corsi would differ. The logical leap that many people have made with Corsi is that puck possession also correlates with winning, or goal scoring, or generation of scoring chances, and therefore Corsi, a proxy for possession, is also a proxy for scoring etc. I have seen little evidence that over the long term (as VOR has cited above there is negative evidence for this) possession equates to winning or scoring metrics. This is because while shots may be taken at the net, not all shots will have an equal probability of going in (known as shot quality) which numerous factors, like shot placement, location of shot attempt, traffic, blocking.

    Also important for consideration, what kind of system is a team playing. When Montreal knocked off both Washington and Pittsburgh in the playoffs (or Edmonton beat Detroit and S.J.) they were playing a D-zone box and counter-attack system (let the other team shout from low percentage areas, take the puck and attempt breakaways) that result in a large number of shot attempts against (of low quality) with a few high quality attempts for. This is not “luck” but by design, and a clear case where the team is winning and goal scoring with poor possession proxies.

    Note: I think Krueger has been doing the above with his 4th line (hence the strong – corsi and brutal zone starts for some of his depth players) while playing a possession game with his top lines (+ corsi). I’m not saying it’s a successful strategy, but I don’t think it can be judged based on Corsi stats.

    I bring this up because I think that if one of the teams is not playing a possession based system then Corsi falls apart as predictor of game outcomes, even over the short term.

    I won’t dwell on Cause and Correlation (even though it is occasionally ignored by even the best, most on here are at least well aware of it), but rather focus on the major caveat of any prediction using stats. It is the assumption that rules/conditions/laws in place before will still hold true in the future. In other words uncontrolled factors won’t change, and therefore don’t need to be accounted for in prediction/extrapolations. In natural laws this generally holds true, in sports this is rarely the case. Hell, we’ve all seen how officiating differentiates from the beginning to the end of the season. Changes in equipment, training, diet, psychology year over year can vary for players, teams and leagues. Most importantly, sports are played by humans; humans learn (change behaviour based on past experience/observations); therefore past events can change the outcome rather than being consistent.

  88. B S says:

    rickithebear,

    Why does there have to be regression to the mean?

  89. dessert1111 says:

    Some interesting dialogue here, but would be more interesting without personal attacks. They just make everyone look silly.

    Hopefully the Oilers actually play like they want to win tonight, for maybe something resembling 60 minutes

  90. Bag of Pucks says:

    FPB94:
    mc79hockey,

    Dat comment. Way to ruin your whole post in 1 line.

    Reminds me of his tweet of a week or so ago asserting that nobody west of the lakehead could possibly understand the Tragically Hip. Classic ‘center of the universe’ stuff. Seems to have the perfect disposition for the legal profession.

  91. Lowetide says:

    A couple of things:

    1. Tyler is from BC
    2. Tyler’s tweets are often purposely outrageous so as to incite reaction
    3. I don’t think it takes a lot to understand the Tragically Hip
    4. If you take out all of the bad words, there’s some informative stuff here. I would like to thank Tyler, WG, VOR and BS for their time, and Kris11 for a post I would have written if I were smarter.
    5. I remain hopeful Ricki shows us his work.

    Thanks.

  92. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    I think the idea you all have in your head that Whitney is shit and Justin Schultz (who I think is going to be a superb player for years to come, possibly one of the all time greats) is walking on water because of their corsi in isolation is absurd.

    I’m pretty sure I’ve never said that, or implied it.

    I think J.Shultz is having a very rookie year with lots of PP offence. Show me where I said otherwise.

    Your problem is when corsi is out of the mix all you can say for proving Whitney is a shit player becomes “I saw him bad”. The math, sadly, says he is a specialist with a specialist’s skills and they haven’t atrophied as much as all of you are assuming.

    Why should we takes shot attempts out of the mix?

    The multiples of shots the opponents get when he is on the ice and unable to break up a cycle is a real thing with real effects.

    Over time it shows in the results.

    You seem to be very results oriented and you want to explain very small samples results with reasons.

    That’s the opposite of what we try to figure out with corsi.

    If a team is continually out shot, they will be out score.

    In small samples anything can happen, but as David Johnson has on the front page of his site:

    What corsi/fenwick metrics have going for them is more reliability over small sample sizes but once you approach a full seasons worth of data that benefit is largely gone and you get more benefit from having the percentages factored into the equation

    Its funny that you keep attacking me as corsi slave, but I’m one of the most “goal based” people that post here.

    The ability to score is real and needs to be taken into account, but until the sample sizes are sufficient, they are unreliable.

    I get what you are saying.

    From 2008-2012 Whitney has a 51.4% GF and a 45.4% CF.

    In your opinion his ability to score has outweighed the fact that he gets out shot.

    That’s fine and reasonable.

    This year he has a 51.9% GF and a 41.7% CF.

    He is not the player he was and his GF will follow his CF down because I don’t think a spread like that is sustainable.

    He’s had good puck luck and he would fall under the 50%GF threshold if the season were long enough.

    Sample sizes matter a lot.

  93. sliderule says:

    BS
    I would say that almost all the good teams are playing some form of defensive zone coverage involving a box and one.

    They collapse into the box with no forward higher than top of face off circle.

    They want no shots from slot and all other shots from outside.

    All players are considered shot blockers.

    Contrast that with oilers were the slot is wide open and the wings are in no mans land halfway between top of face-off cycle and the points.

    It sounds like RK is a great motivated but i don’t see a system .

    How about hiring a technical assistant who knows systems.

    Maybe Perry Pearn?

  94. Woodguy says:

    Kris11,

    Thanks for that sir.

    Better than I could have done by a mile.

  95. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    Am I misreading it, or does he not even really take a stab at answering the question his headline poses?

    My guess is that Krueger has never liked Jones’s cheating for offence, and that’s why he’s sitting him a bunch. But it could be that his past (unsustainable) offence drying up is what’s banishing him to the pressbox.

    Regardless, I’m all for it. I’d just be much more all for it if his replacement was an Actual NHL Player (TM).

  96. Lowetide says:

    “SS”: My bet is Matheson never saw the headline. As for the HS, amen. One night last week on a PK, Ryan Jones chose the wrong point man to cover (the shot would have come from the right point but the D was in position) and POINTED to the other D for Paajarvi to cover.

    What a fucknut. Paajarvi COULD NEVER HAVE GOTTEN THERE.

    Jesus.

    I turned the tv off.

  97. dessert1111 says:

    Rieder with a PP goal, from pretty much the exact same spot Kessey whiffed twice from yesterday, ironically.

    A draft eligible Kitchener Ranger, Josh Bailey, had an excellent power move to beat out three or four of the London Knights to score the first goal. Goes from the right boards, behind the net, then forces himself out in front of the net to give himself room. I think he’s projected somewhere around the 3rd round, big guy.

  98. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Do you think Adam Larsson maybe available for a trade?

    Maybe Edmonton’s first rd pick 2013 for Adam Larsson

  99. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Do you think Adam Larsson maybe available fora trade?

    I actually had a cup of coffee with someone who mentioned that name today. Hadn’t thought of it before, but he made the point that it wasn’t happening for him in NJ.

    What do you think?

  100. B S says:

    sliderule,

    I think the thing to watch with Krueger is that he wants to play a zone defense, and wants his players to shorten the gap with opposition forwards when they’re entering the zone, with the intention of generating turnovers and counter-attacks. When the opposition dumps it in the D-men are supposed to retrieve the puck and toss it up to the forwards with little time in their own zone (I’ll get back to this in a moment). When the opposition establishes a forecheck (subsequently followed by a cycle, read Canucks and why they tend to kick the crap out of Edmonton) the players are supposed to cover their own part of the ice, boxing out when players move towards the slot, and cycling towards the points once the play spreads out. Where Edmonton is getting beat is gapping opposing forwards, entry (in the case of Whitney, Potter), puck retrieval, and zone exits.

    It is possible to argue that these systems won’t work but I don’t think its fair to judge Krueger’s coaching on this season. Unlike man-to-man coverage, Krueger’s systems require co-operation and reliability and experience and practice to work, it takes time to figure them out. He had a 6 day training camp with 2 complete rookies and a shortened schedule. The players don’t always know where to be and haven’t figured out when to break the system to get the puck or get in on the offense. I do agree that it’s worth considering whether the assistant coaches are the right guys for the job as they grew up with the seat-of-your-pants rush and score era of hockey. Krueger is also one coach short. I don’t know if that is by choice or there isn’t anyone left who belongs to the old-boys-club that wants the job.

  101. B S says:

    B S,

    I should clarify, I think the players are out of position (particularly the Defensemen) and that is why we are seeing more shots from the slot, not a systems problem.

  102. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    I would trade Edmonton’s 1st round pick assuming it is somewhere around 10th pick for Adam Larsson

  103. FPB94 says:

    Lowetide,

    If they do the mistake of trading him jump on it. D-men take a lot of time to develop so judging them now is foolish at best. Hedman’s just turning the corner now and he’s becoming a pretty solid player for the Lightning.

  104. BlacqueJacque says:

    Does anybody even care, any more?

    Besides, it’s the Coyotes. Who wants to stay up for that?

  105. Lowetide says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Does anybody even care, any more?

    Besides, it’s the Coyotes.Who wants to stay up for that?

    Who on the what now?

  106. godot10 says:

    But you don’t trade the 1st round pick for Larsson until AFTER the draft lottery.

  107. speeds says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    I wouldn’t say I’d consider it likely that things play out this way, but from now until Saturday, the EDM and DET schedules are:

    DET – THURS-home vs. SJ, FRI – @ CHI

    EDM – WED – home vs. PHX, SAT, home vs. CAL

    Is it impossible that EDM wins both and DET loses both in regulation? That would leave both teams tied at 43 points with 41 GP.

  108. Factotum says:

    This thread has me thinking about something that most of you have probably already thought about, and in fact have been arguing about all day, but I’m wondering:

    What *can* be inferred about a D-man who has a positive zonestart-adjusted 5×5 GF% and a terrible zonestart-adjusted 5×5 SF%, FF%, and CF% over a large sample size (5 seasons with three different teams)? Given that goals for and against are ultimately what wins hockey games, at what point does that disconnect mean something? And what does it mean?

    So help me, I think my head may explode if it turns out the answer is:

    “Two things. One, the fact that he’s playing well. And, two, his ability to move the puck is something that we desperately need. We have skilled forwards that demand the puck at the right time to take advantage of transition they can deliver.”

  109. mc79hockey says:

    Reminds me of his tweet of a week or so ago asserting that nobody west of the lakehead could possibly understand the Tragically Hip. Classic ‘center of the universe’ stuff. Seems to have the perfect disposition for the legal profession.

    For the record, I’m from BC and people my age in Ontario love the Tragically Hip beyond all sensibility. I mean, they’re a nice bar rock band but other than that, meh. So, just like people from Western Canada are basically as bad as Quebeckers when it comes to looking to be offended, people from Ontario have an absurd love of a so-so rock and roll band.

  110. mc79hockey says:

    Is it impossible that EDM wins both and DET loses both in regulation? That would leave both teams tied at 43 points with 41 GP.

    I doubt there’s more than 8-10% chance of that happening. And I’m being generous.

  111. Captain Happy says:

    speeds:
    BlacqueJacque,

    I wouldn’t say I’d consider it likely that things play out this way, but from now until Saturday, the EDM and DET schedules are:

    DET – THURS-home vs. SJ, FRI – @ CHI

    EDM – WED – home vs. PHX, SAT, home vs. CAL

    Is it impossible that EDM wins both and DET loses both in regulation?That would leave both teams tied at 43 points with 41 GP.

    Of course during that period, Phoenix plays Calgary, Dallas plays Nashville, Columbus plays Minnesota and Dallas plays San Jose.

    The Oilers aren’t just chasing Detroit in isolation.

    They’re also chasing Dallas, Columbus and Phoenix.

  112. B S says:

    speeds,

    I love the optimism, but I don’t think Babcock, Zetterberg, or Datsuyk let that happen.

  113. speeds says:

    mc79hockey,

    Like I said, by no means am I counting on it.

    Assuming independent events, If there were a 75% chance of EDM winning each game and a 75% chance of DET losing each game in regulation, there would be a ~32% chance of that occurring.

    If there were a 50% chance of EDM winning each game and a 50% chance of DET losing each game in regulation, there would only be a ~6% chance of that occurring.

  114. speeds says:

    Captain Happy,

    For sure, I never said they were only chasing DET, and you are certainly correct that EDM could possibly pass DET and still not make the playoffs if another team in the race finished stronger, but they are currently the team they are trying to catch is all.

  115. Captain Happy says:

    speeds:
    Captain Happy,

    For sure, I never said they were only chasing DET, and you are certainly correct that EDM could possibly pass DET and still not make the playoffs if another team in the race finished stronger, but they are currently the team they are trying to catch is all.

    Since Detroit wins all the tie breakers, the Oilers would need to win their next 3 in a row while Detroit would have to lose the next 3 in regulation.

    SJS@DET

    DET@CHI

    DET@NSH

    Not an easy schedule to be sure.

  116. cabbiesmacker says:

    For the record, I’m from BC

    Sure but that town might as well be in Alberta so you’re still an asshat

    :)

  117. bookje says:

    speeds:
    mc79hockey,

    Like I said, by no means am I counting on it.

    Assumingindependent events, If there were a 75% chance of EDM winning each game and a 75% chance of DET losing each game in regulation, there would be a ~32% chance of that occurring.

    If there were a 50% chance of EDM winning each game and a 50% chance of DET losing each game in regulation, there would only be a ~6% chance of that occurring.

    6.25% chance – stop skewing the statistics to make things look worse than they are!!

  118. VOR says:

    Kris 11

    Let me quote you to yourself “You have a chip on your shoulder, dude.” You don’t think this is hostile and offensive dude?

    “Seriously, the aggresive tone of your rhetoric is wholly unnecessary and unjustfied. Sure, maybe somebody tried to belittle your take on Corsi, but that’s no reason to return fire on everyone who holds some set of beliefs about Corsi that you disagree with.” Isn’t this agressive rhetoric? It is certainly a totally unsubstantiated drive by slur from a guy asserting the moral high ground. I am very much returning fire on you but it has nothing to do with your beliefs about corsi but rather because of your own rhetorical tricks being so on display in an attempt to censor someone who you think doesn’t agree with you..

    “Tone it down and play nice. You’ll find that you catch more flies with sugar than vinegar. Tyler and WG seem pretty ready to cite facts and argue reasonably with you.” That is horsecrap and you know it. they are using every rhetorical trick they can come up with to try to win an argument with me where the facts aren’t kind to them. This just makes it crystal clear whose camp you are in.

    “IMO, you are attacking a strawman. No one thinks that Corsi alone, with no context, is a particularly great predictor of future success for a player. I guess Corsi-without context is a bit better than +/- withoiut context, but that is saying very little.” Really, so nobody here has ever posted anything evaluating any player using corsi without context? Never? Love this particular rhetorical trick of getting your opponent to think they are stupid because really it all never happened. All evidence to the contrary is just in your head. You really need to try some of your own sugar.

    “What most people here (and around the well-informed Stazi parts of the hockey blogosphere more generally) like to look at Corsi more than GF,GA,or+/- becasuse there are far more shot events than goal events in a game and so any sample of +/- data will show wildly misleading variations unless you have a very big sample of games (maybe 1.5 seasons or more). On the other hand 20 or so games of Corsi gives you a pretty big record of shot events and so the effect of randomness is smoothed out.)”

    Did I say something that lead you to belief I don’t understand corsi’s strengths? This is the age old “why everybody knows that” being used to try to make me feel intellectually inferior and is outrageously offensive. You really need to tone this agressive rhetoric down dude. To criticize me you must have read my posts and must have missed the part where I explained that I support corsi’s use in evaluating forwards. Except I don’t know if you did miss it. Maybe the part where I demanded proof just upset you so much you ignored my supportive statements.

    If you come to me and treat me with respect and kindness I will reciprocate in kind. If you try to bully me, intellectually or physically I will kick your balls into the back of your throat. Your entire post is one extended attempt to bully me and I think you owe me an apology.

  119. B S says:

    speeds,

    I just like that you even brought it up as a possibility while everyone else is all Doom and Gloom and -oh god, who are we going to draft 3rd overall? You and Bookje are providing the sort of upbeat discussion this blog needs until the end of the season.

  120. maudite says:

    hunter1909: You must mean like Cogliano, who’s now a perfectly servicable if overpriced midget hockey player.

    Any hope of replacing the Oiler’s management with the Ducks? And hire everyone associated with their “media presence”?

    I was watching Cogs a lot last game. He still has stare at the puckasitis. Granted he’s been elevated to centering top line and I think he was playing wing before. Would not have a problem with him on the wing at all. Also don’t have a problem with that draft pick, given our current makeup.

  121. spoiler says:

    B S:
    sliderule,

    I think the thing to watch with Krueger is that he wants to play a zone defense, and wants his players to shorten the gap with opposition forwards when they’re entering the zone, with the intention of generating turnovers and counter-attacks. When the opposition dumps it in the D-men are supposed to retrieve the puck and toss it up to the forwards with little time in their own zone (I’ll get back to this in a moment). When the opposition establishes a forecheck (subsequently followed by a cycle, read Canucks and why they tend to kick the crap out of Edmonton) the players are supposed to cover their own part of the ice, boxing out when players move towards the slot, and cycling towards the points once the play spreads out. Where Edmonton is getting beat is gapping opposing forwards, entry (in the case of Whitney, Potter), puck retrieval, and zone exits.

    It is possible to argue that these systems won’t work but I don’t think its fair to judge Krueger’s coaching on this season. Unlike man-to-man coverage, Krueger’s systems require co-operation and reliability and experience and practice to work, it takes time to figure them out. He had a 6 day training camp with 2 complete rookies and a shortened schedule. The players don’t always know where to be and haven’t figured out when to break the system to get the puck or get in on the offense. I do agree that it’s worth considering whether the assistant coaches are the right guys for the job as they grew up with the seat-of-your-pants rush and score era of hockey.Krueger is also one coach short. I don’t know if that is by choice or there isn’t anyone left who belongs to the old-boys-club that wants the job.

    Errrmmm… Doesn’t the Oil play man pressure? And isn’t man pressure widely considered to be more difficult than zone?

  122. cabbiesmacker says:

    The best thing about the whole stats discussion is that the vast, and I mean VAST, majority of the coaching fraternity members pay very little attention to them. The truth is they set their lines to begin the game and then adjust as they see fit. “Whoever looks like they’re going that night.” gets preferential treatment.

    Loved Babcock’s comments a couple of weeks back about the importance of using the bench and moving lines in and out and that he had no clue what he was doing until he’d been in the Dub a half year.

    Babs rules.

  123. dessert1111 says:

    The announcers at the Kitchener-London OHL playoff game just said Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish were at the game. Wonder who they’re scouting?

  124. Lowetide says:

    Arcobello (Rajala & Marincin)
    Fedun (Vandevelde & Pitlick)

  125. vishcosity says:

    I’ve always been able to understand Rickithebear’s comments okay, I think. He uses GF v GA and the math I have seen is based on those. Today I gained a fair bit of respect for him too for not desending to the playground. Good stuff man. I hope you keep writing because I think you see things way differently than most. Remember the 2nd grade adults thought Albert Einstein was retarded. I’d rather be Einstein than one of the adults, my own self.

    We don’t know who contributed to a play unless they get an assist.
    We have no information about any passes ever,
    no idea who forces turn overs or gains team pocession.
    We have no idea regarding shot quality,
    or simple things like TOI in the OHL.

    and until the league actually starts to track things like that, no one has the time to figure any one of them out.

    Hoping for different data, but until we get access to shot quality, Corsi will continue to be a questionable stat to me at least.

  126. Lowetide says:

    Bo Horvath, Bailey and Domi.

  127. khildahl says:

    At Rexall for the game tonight. As always with the Coyotes, I suspect the Coliseum steak sandwich I had before the game may end up being the highlight of the evening.

  128. dessert1111 says:

    Lowetide:
    Bo Horvath, Bailey and Domi.

    Zadorov?

  129. speeds says:

    dessert1111,

    London has a few guys rated in Button’s top 20, Horvat (a guy that I read Pronman compare favorably to Lazar today on twitter), Domi, Zadorov. Kitchener has Bailey, who could well be a 2nd round target

    Wonder what they’ve thought of Rieder, 1G, 1A, +1 so far tonight

  130. Captain Obvious says:

    I posted a while back on a system I’ve developed that combines, for the most part, the apparent contrast we have here. I’ll repeat it because I think it’s relevant. If you do it my way Whitney gets credit for some of the specific offense Vor attributes to him.

    The basic idea is that it is possible to provide a better picture of +/- by doing two things. First, isolating goalie performance from player performance, and second, accounting for context.

    Regarding the first I use SA instead of GA to count for goals allowed and a combination of G, A1, A2, and SF to account for goals for. I think this makes sense because while it is probably true that players contribute to easier/harder shots against this effect is vanishingly small in comparison to goalie performance and variance. Thus SA is a much better measure than GA. However, the converse is not quite true. If you used SF instead of GF players like Stamkos, Malkin, and Crosby, while they would still do well would not stand out like they do in real life. So instead I use a weighted points formula (Goals x1.5, A2 x .5) for points and then make up the difference with SF so that the calculated GF=real GF (because everything has to balance).

    For context, I ran a multiple regression analysis of zone start, Qcomp, Qteam, against shot differential. This gives me a coefficient for each that can be used to adjust GF/GA up or down concerning the context of the performance. Zone starts and Qteam are quite predictive (especially zone starts). Qcomp is trickier, if you run it on the entire sample of players you actually get the impossible result that playing harder competition improves your goal differential. This is because, amongst other reasons, that players who play harder competition are also better and they don’t play the hardest competition all the time. I address this problem by using a smaller sample of players who are in and out of the lineup. If you do it this way you get a valid correlation between Qcomp and shot differential.

    Finally, I measure replacement level by taking a subsection of players who are back and forth between the NHL and the AHL and guys on waivers and see what their real results are.

    I could improve it by spending some time refining the sample from which the coefficients and replacement level is drawn from but it wouldn’t make a big difference.

    So what does it measure: It measures what happened on the ice while the player was on the ice, it measures the context this happened in, and it isolates the players direct contribution to scoring events in the form of goals and assists. It is a value measure not a predictive measure. In my opinion before you get anywhere near a predictive measure you have know first, what happened. That’s what this does. Then you’d have to isolate why it happened.

    So what it does is that it generates a list of roughly comparable players in terms of value. Once there, you have to do some fine grain analysis to see what is fully going on. Three specific limitations:

    One, players on teams that block a lot of shots by design but don’t allow a lot of shots will come out better than they really are. The reason for this is I use Corsi quality of teammates and so players on teams that block a lot of shots will get credit for something that probably isn’t real. For instance according to Qteam playing for the Rangers and playing for the Oilers isn’t that different. That’s probably not true. Nonetheless, for most players it works and until a better Qteam measure is invented it does the job and shades the numbers in the right direction.

    Second, guys like Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz come out looking fantastic. However, my judgement wouldn’t be that this means that Dupuis and Kunitz are superstars, it would be that some of the value of Malkin and Crosby is leaking into their numbers.

    Third, this doesn’t account for variation in offensive shooting percentage. I think this is a feature not a bug. Otherwise you can’t account for how good Stamkos is or how much actual value Eberle contributed last year. However, you have to know this about the system and make a judgement about whether it is likely to continue. For instance, Chris Stewart came out terrible last year and will likely come out quite good this year. Which is the real player? Neither.

    Fourth, this like any statistical measure relies on the law of large numbers, i.e. sample size, and the myth that players have a “true talent.” However, the ability of players change and there is no way of knowing when or if this has happened. So using three years of data would deal with the problem of variation of shooting percentage however there is no way to know on the basis of data whether the variation that occurs is natural variation or whether the underlying ability has changed.

    Finally, Ricki if you are still reading this is the magic of full paragraphs.

  131. Kris11 says:

    vor,

    I didn’t mean to make you mad. (The comment has gotten two undesrvedly nice pieces of applause from the two -and you must know this is true- fairest, most charitable, polite guys on any Oilers blogs: LT and WG.

    You seem to agree with the general approach to using Corsi that WG, LT, MC79 and lots of others accept.

    So whose views on Corsi (please be specific and use some names) have you been attacking vehemently or at least strongly critiquing the last few days?

    Also, can you please cite where the pro-Corsi people used rude or overly aggressive rhetoric towards you here before today that you are now fighting back against with your own aggressive rhetoric? Was it Tyler or LT or WG or JW or Scott Reynolds or Parkatti? (It could’ve been Zona, but note that he is rude to everyone about everything, including his son Dustin Penner, and he means it with love.) Those are sort of the key stats people in the Oilogosphere (now tha Vic has transcended reality,apparently). Could you go back and find the inciting comment?

    Maybe you are arguing with someone from another blog, like JLikens. But I sort of doubt that.

  132. dessert1111 says:

    speeds:
    dessert1111,

    Wonder what they’ve thought of Rieder, 1G, 1A, +1 so far tonight

    I was thinking the same thing. He’s played a good game. Could turn out to be nothing, but I do have a nagging feeling that it’s a small trade that could bite them big time in a couple years.

  133. Kris11 says:

    VOR,

    VOR:
    Kris 11

    If you come to me and treat me with respect and kindness I will reciprocate in kind. If you try to bully me, intellectually or physically I will kick your balls into the back of your throat. Your entire post is one extended attempt to bully me and I think you owe me an apology.

    Barn fight?

    I will book the barn.

    Chill out, my friend. Deep breaths.

    Someone is wrong on the internet!

  134. maudite says:

    B S:
    speeds,

    I just like that you even brought it up as a possibility while everyone else is all Doom and Gloom and -oh god, who are we going to draft 3rd overall? You and Bookje are providing the sort of upbeat discussion this blog needs until the end of the season.

    I agree. I chuckled when I read that statement. “NOT MATHEMATICALLY ELIMNATED WOOHOO!”

    They still might finish higher than 12/25th, where I thought they’d be. I hope they do. Don’t care if they make the playoffs or draft at a worse spot this go around. One more piece of mana from heaven isn’t going to lead to the promise land next year.. It’s going to take some adept moves.

    In other news: We very well might not make it next year.

  135. VanOil says:

    I have a new scapegoat for this seasons woes! Shane fucking Doan. Not only was the miss on not drafting him one of the great mistakes of Oilers lore, his dirty late hit on our Russian Captain was the moment our season imploded. It’s all his fault. Hopefully with a 8 goal smack down lead our dirty Russian leader exacts some revenge.

    Yes I know I am reaching here but I need some motivation to watch a meaningless game against the Coyotes.

  136. striatic says:

    this summer is going to be the first major test of Tambellini 4.0′s tenure.

    so far i’ve been mildly satisfied with his “first do no harm” approach to the rebuild. the team is getting a clean slate with plenty of cap space going into next season, but the real test will come in the offseason when Tambellini finally has to, you know, improve the team.

    problem for him is that this summer’s UFA crop isn’t nearly as good as next year’s will be.

  137. Lowetide says:

    Yakupov had a nice play there, plenty of zip early, and a nice save by Dubnyk on someone named Connor.

  138. Lucinius says:

    Sadly.. so far this game is actually enjoyable.

    Oh, Oilers.. why do you torment me so?

    Why can’t you just let me languish in depression and agony? Why must you give me a flicker of hope and enjoyment!?

  139. nelson88 says:

    Kris11: No one here is arguing that there is a deductively valid argument saying: Player one has Corsi X, therefore Player 1 sucks, regardless of anything else.

    Don’t know what blog you’ve been reading for the last few months but i’ll call bullshit on that comment.

  140. nelson88 says:

    Go Oilers! ;)

  141. striatic says:

    Eberle is such a goon.

  142. VOR says:

    Good God Kris, more rhetorical tricks? I will give you what you want when you quote where I used agressive rhetoric.

    But in a gesture of goodwill to get you started –

    A blistering Whitney critique by Michael Parkatti at C&B

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/4/10/4207454/ryan-whitney-a-graphical-exploration-of-failure

    Amazing how the conclusions are similar to the link I posted yesterday from 5 years ago with the Penguins.

    http://icejunkies.blogspot.ca/2008/02/ryan-whitney-is-most-dangerous.html

    For those not inclined to follow links I feel this largely sums it up;

    “Let me put this more succinctly. Whitney has a raw Corsi of -178 on the season. In the games in which he’s played, the Oilers as a team have had a raw Corsi of -302. This means that Whitney has single-handedly accounted for 59% of the Oilers Corsi deficit in the games he’s played in. He’s handicapping the entire team’s ability to compete.”

    “Whitney plays hockey poorly. He makes his teammates worse and does not deserve to take a regular shift anymore. The Oilers would be a better team if Theo Peckham took his spot. Hell, they’d probably be a better team if Esa Tikkanen took his spot.”

    Now Vanoil says he supports that so there goes your nobody ever uses corsi this way shot to hell.

    Also, denny33 says:
    April 10, 2013 at 12:12 pm

    VanOil,

    Great post. People need to read this…

    Ryan Whitney can’t skate – that has been evident since week 1.

    Fans should try to place themselves outside of their team….look at Parkatti’s stuff and think – what do other people think of our organization? ( Whitney’s play and effort called out on Naitonal TV )

    After a month or so,,,it was not even about Ryan Whitney anymore. Hall and Whitney have played 113:34 together this year at 5v5. They have a Corsi share of 46.5%. They look to have been on the ice for 7 GF and 1 GA. Obviously, their PDO together is through the roof.

    Am I to take it, VOR, that you think that if they played together for say, 15 minutes a night and 82 games a year, they’d score 76 GF and allow 11 GA?

    So kris do you recognize a rhetorical trick when you see it? Did I say anything like this in my post which wasn’t even to MC79? Nope. But you have no problem with Tyler’s rhetorical excesses just mine. You’d make a good NHL ref or can’t I say that because I am being agressive. Woodguy says:
    April 10, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    VOR,

    David Johnson writes some interesting stuff, but you have to be careful that you are not just praying to your own anti-Tut-corsi.

    When David is looking at predictiong goals, he usually finds his data starts giving good answers after 2+ years of data.

    This can be predicted because goals are much more rare and subject to luck than shooting rates and it would take a much larger sample to be predictive.

    In fact, David says this in one his posts about the subject:

    When dealing with less than a full season of data, corsi/fenwick may still be the preferred stat when evaluating offensive performance.

    Its from this post:

    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2011/05/30/goal-rates-better-than-corsifenwick-in-player-evaluation/

    David is far less anti-corsi than you are.

    First, kris read this closely woodguy is being condescending. He assumes he is the font of all wisom and that I wouldn’t have read all of David Johnson’s work, that I wouldn’t remember it, etc. He could have said, Johnson also says that production metrics are better with years of data. I ignored him because he hasn’t read me since I never said I was anti-corsi and yet there I am being more anti-corsi than David Johnson. We have doubts, that doesn’t make us anti-corsi.

    Now you show me where my rhetoric is agressive.

    For me, it was about Ryan Whitney continually being *allowed* to put an Oiler jersey on.

    Really kris you saw no reason to call Denny out on his personal assault on Ryan Whitney but you have a problem with my agressive rhetoric?

  143. VOR says:

    Hey kris are you all right? Did I break you? You suddenly don’t sound like the arbitrator of all things moral and reasonable.

  144. Lowetide says:

    Nail Yakupov is a wonderful hockey player. Just wonderful.

  145. Lowetide says:

    Fedun (Marincin)

  146. Kris11 says:

    nelson88: I don’t know what blog you have been reading for the last year or two but i’l call absolute bullshit on that comment.

    Who are you thinking of, specifically?

    I suppose dumb stuff happens all over from even smart people.

    I thought the Khabbi signing was not that bad.

    But to be charitable to the smart people (LT, Tyler, WG, Parkattil Reynolds, JW) who use Corsi (never mind RelCorsi) to evaluate players, they are always willing to at least say “Yes, I shoud’ve taken any or all of the following into account: zone start, Qual comp (measured formally or informally), Qual team (again measured formally or not), nagging injuries, and age (forgiveness for developing players) into account to determine whether ,say, a fairly bad RelCorsi number is really strong evidence of a player who is likely to hurt the team going forward.”

    I don’t know who these people who say this obviously overly simple stuff are. What are their names?

  147. Kris11 says:

    Ugh.

    I think Vor is not here for a serious conversation.

    I will hereafter ignore him.

    Too bad,

  148. VanOil says:

    VOR,

    My apologies VOR I see now I communicated poorly with my initial post. I was really into Parkatti’s post because I want Esa Tikkanen back. Coach, defender, massage therapist don’t care just more Tik. I have been consistent on this point for months.

  149. tcho says:

    19 looking like a gate post there…. Pretty good game so far though.

  150. Kris11 says:

    VOR,

    BTW, you might want to get checked for NPD.

    You are obsessed with being slighted and breaking me and being stronger and people not seeing your genius when everyone here is being pretty polite with you.

  151. Lowetide says:

    He’s had one play that he managed well (one on one) and the rest have been pretty bad. Coyotes seem to be getting a lot of plays going his way, don’t know if it is by design but he’s certainly been chaos.

  152. Lowetide says:

    Rajala (Hartikainen, Cornet)

  153. speeds says:

    I don’t think we’ll get a look at Rajala this year LT, but he’s sure trying to make a case for himself!

  154. VanOil says:

    Man Rajala is good. I sadly still don’t think he will get a shot here. Maybe he could be traded straight up for Nino. We might even lose on that trade.

  155. Lowetide says:

    speeds: 13-23-36 in his last 34, the kid is outstanding. I hope they don’t consider him another Omark.

  156. nelson88 says:

    Kris11,

    Kris,

    No offense as your comment seems sincere but it isn’t going to positively move the dialogue forward by naming names. Suffice it to say some of the more “influential”; and no doubt intelligent posters on this board, were getting more than a little condescending with anyone who disagreed with their narratives. I applaud VOR for making some excellent points with supporting data and not backing down.

    This is one of the best blogs in hockey but frankly it was becoming painful to read as the big head mutual admiration society was taking over.

  157. Lowetide says:

    Oilers played an entertaining period here but they need to bury some of those chances. Top line is freaky, some push through by the 2line but no finish so far.

    Dubnyk looks good, D wobbly aside from Smid-Petry imo.

  158. mc79hockey says:

    I’ve honestly got no idea what VOR’s talking about but I’m more than a little unimpressed at being essentially called an intellectually dishonest con artist. Have fun.

  159. tcho says:

    Shots 10-8 for Phoenix. By eye the Oilers had the better of the play that period. Anywhere a fellow can take a look at attempted shot numbers?

  160. VanOil says:

    Back to the Adam Larson thing. Yes please. I would trade a non top five 1st round pick and even add Teubert as a sweetener.

  161. Rebilled says:

    The Coyotes look pretty shitty thus far.

    The Oilers have played better but are also fighting fire with fire.

  162. VanOil says:

    Fox is going over the 95 draft again. Bastards.

  163. hunter1909 says:

    Caught what was left with 5 mins remaining in the 1st. Oilers looking like they’re booking excellent vacations, with all kinds of fun+frolic in the sun, or maybe something more adventurous for some.

    Wanted to quit and fully intended to stop watching this team after the last game as turned it off with 3:00 min remaining but here there are once more, and thank fuck it’s the Yotes feed; but man…this season is over and everyone but the most delusional know it.

    Personally can’t really blame Tambo, other than for several of the usual charges, Howson waits patiently in the wings as the “Terrible Two” preside up in the cup-winner’s executive K+C area/suites with 19-23 year old hot personal assistants.

    Down the hall are Bucky+Steve Smith’s shared office, since neither spend much if any time in it. Still, its convenient when the management hold a “coffee meeting” which is attended by their NHLPA rep and team captain who’s getting a spiffy suit hand made for the next event.

    He’s been promised an office of his own as soon as re retires. Plans are afoot to “trade” him for a season or two, before being brought back, Rem Murray style – to make sure everyone can feel good about themselves.

  164. Lucinius says:

    Sportsnet really shouldn’t be advertising their stuff along the lines of “don’t settle for less” and such, given they are the worst in the business for what they do.

  165. VanOil says:

    Fedun & Marincin seem to have forged a good partnership. Hopefully they can anchor a playoff run.

  166. hunter1909 says:

    mc79hockey: the Tragically Hip

    People from Ontario do this, people from the West do that, Quebeckers usually do something else…I’m suspicious of hat wearing singers. Where do you think I’m from?

  167. Lucinius says:

    Ah.

    Spector solves the problem with the Oilers;

    Eberle is the problem.

  168. hunter1909 says:

    Go Yotes!

  169. Lowetide says:

    That was a bad goal.

  170. Lucinius says:

    Oh, ugly.. ugly goal.

    Bad Dubnyk!

    Edit: To be somewhat fair, even though that is on Dubnyk; the top line sucked eggs there. Got owned by the third line of Phoenix.

  171. Southern Oil says:

    Schultz the elder had a real good chance to clear the puck earlier and coughed it up.

  172. cabbiesmacker says:

    Nice job by Petrell to prevent a couple of goals there. Unfortunately they were Oiler goals

  173. Lucinius says:

    Also.. even though this season, thus far, can technically be termed a success…

    I will be disappointed if we don’t see a hat trick from Smid or Yakupov.

    The latter because he might create a tear in the space-time continuum by vibrating so hard in exultation. The former because, seriously. Smid getting a hat trick! No season can suck if that happens.

  174. hunter1909 says:

    Love watching Horcoff captaining the team. Of course his contract, or the fact he’s a management/NHLPA shill has any effect on anyone on the team, or effects his credibility with the other interested party.

  175. VanOil says:

    Lucinius,

    Awesome. Agreed.

  176. Ribs says:

    Ice looks terrible this period.

  177. hunter1909 says:

    How many captains have been able to attend first overall pick parties, as often as the OIlers captain?

  178. Kris11 says:

    nelson88,

    Hey Nelson,

    If I’ve ever been condescending to you, I apologize.

    IMO, if WG, or LT, or MC79 are being condescending to you, you should tell them so, and they’ll be nice.

    The last thing I’ll say about Vor (I will no longer say anything to him), is that as near as I can tell, he agrees with the use of Corsi that is common here. And I don’t see what data he is presenting other than a link.

    But in terms of bullying, I would like to point out that I am the only one who was physically threatened (he said if I do X or Y, and I had apparently already done y, he would assault me.) on this page today and then taunted by being asked if I was broken. I tried to use humor to lighten the situation, but that failed with another taunting.

    But that’s enough internet arguing for me.

    I need to take a shower after all this ickiness.

  179. Lowetide says:

    That was a terrible goal.

  180. tcho says:

    Hmmm… I think I’ve seen this story play out before. :-(

  181. hunter1909 says:

    Isn’t this like one of those old timey Team Canada games, where TC turns up unprepared or something?

  182. Lucinius says:

    Dubnyk…..

    This is what happens when Spector praises someone!!

  183. VanOil says:

    Ribs:
    Ice looks terrible this period.

    Agreed and not for the first time this year. Northlands is showing her age.

  184. Southern Oil says:

    I might just call it a night shortly. What’s the point?

  185. Wolfie says:

    Too fucking casual! The whole team plays too fucking casual too often. Give a shit boys!

  186. fuzzy muppet says:

    Things AREN”T rosy. There’s no urgency in their game at all. It’s same ol, same ol.

    This team is DEAD LAST in shot differential. I don’t need fancy stats to tell me that this isn’t a good thing. This team continues to prove Dee Ess Eff correct.

    Wake me when this rebuild is over.

    Outside of the wunderkids and Smid, This team is horrible.

  187. Ice Sage says:

    Southern Oil: might just call it a night shortly. What’s the point?

    Southern Oil(Quote

    Indeed. here’s to more empty seats down the stretch – there are better things to do

  188. hunter1909 says:

    Southern Oil:
    I might just call it a night shortly.What’s the point?

    No idea. It’s like a party that’s so terrible you and your friends end up discussing whether you want to burn the place to the ground.

  189. hunter1909 says:

    I thought it was the second intermission ha ha ha.

  190. hunter1909 says:

    Pull Dubnyk ffs. Let Khabibulin say goodbye with a farewell shellacking.

  191. tcho says:

    Shots 20-11. Frustrating.

  192. danny says:

    Dubnyk impresses with his stats, if only he could get those weak goals out of his game he could arguably be a franchise goaltender.

    Two goals in the anaheim game had Doobie kicking a soft shot straight outinto the slot for an open net. Tonight he has added two more weak ones.

    Hopefully he can iron these out of his game sooner than later.

  193. fuzzy muppet says:

    Might as well play Lander from here on out. Hell call up Fedun, Rajala and the whole bunch.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat the “A” team

  194. Southern Oil says:

    Whoever said it earlier – no urgency at all for the past few games. I have no idea why that is – chemistry, coaching, vets vs. kids, etc… I love to dump all over management but I am not sure you can pin that one on them (at least in the short term) What the hell is going on with this club?

  195. rich says:

    The sliver lining in the Oilers continued slump post trade deadline:

    - A higher pick in the draft
    - The possibility that there might finally be a change in management – who will rightfully come in for addiitional criticism for standing still at the trade deadline
    - No excuses to say this summer that we just need to sit around and wait for the kids to continue to develop – the plan isn’t working boys.

    With two against Minnesota, another with Vancouver and Chicago plus 2 with Anaheim, we could really crash before this is over. Maybe THAT would finally wake someone up.

    Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

  196. hunter1909 says:

    Let’s amuse ourselves with a “predict the final score” competition starting at midway through the 2nd period. Anyone can play, without any comeback for wrong predictions. :P

    It’s looking like a 4-5 goal game, so 6-2 Yotes is my casual prediction.

  197. Ice Sage says:

    C’mon fellas – thiese are the amazing Coyotes – with talents such as Conner, Schlemko and Klinkhammer, it’s pretty tough going out there!

    Chin up lads, only 8 more skates! Play safe out there, wouldn’t want a boo-boo.

  198. VanOil says:

    All those looking for a reason to keep on watching. The Yakupov slap shot.

  199. tcho says:

    Let’s go, boys!

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