DUCKS AT OILERS G44 (12-13) 21.4.13

During last night’s HNIC broadcast, Elliotte Friedman informed us that we’ll “find out soon” about Craig MacTavish’s vision of the team. What does that mean? What changes will me make?

RELEASE ME

One expects several of the current UFA’s to be are playing (or sitting) their last games with the team. I would include Ryan Jones, Lennart Petrell, Jerred Smithson, Ryan Whitney, Andy Sutton (whose career may be over) and Nikolai Khabibulin. That’s 6 guys, and you could make the case that Jones should return and there are reasons for it, but for me the series of healthy scratches from the coach is a tell.

Six gone.

DECISIONS

There are some difficult decisions for the Edmonton Oilers. Some of the evaluation (Fistric v. Peckham) will probably come down to coach’s preference and in that case I’d suggest Mr. Peckman is in a new town by fall. I don’t know that this is the right decision, but it’s hard to see player and team finding a way to make it work after these months of disconnect.

The other three rfa’s of note (Sam Gagner, Magnus Paajarvi, Teemu Hartikainen) could be an “action area” for the new GM this summer. We’ve talked about Gagner as a trade option in the past, and it makes sense if the Oilers believe they can replace his position adequately outside the organization. The other question surrounds the kind of value you could get for him in a deal. The young man is having a fine year (despite a recent slump) and is clearly skilled–but he’ll be making a pretty penny because of the poor decision by the organization to sign a one year deal last summer.

For me, Paajarvi is set as a part of the future based on this season. When a coach asks a player to adapt and he does, I think that’s a sign the relationship is working. Why change that? Paajarvi should be an effective 2-way winger for years. Hartikainen remains a “bubble” player, although I suspect he’d be one of the 12 best options on any given night right now. His trade value is such that the Oilers are better off keeping him in a (at the very least) 4line role next season. I like him better than that, but he can prove his value from the 4line.

Anton Lander is a decision because the club will need to know if he can fill the 4line role (looks good lately) and Corey Power Potterplay is a decision because there’s a waiver risk if they choose to add 2 actual NHL defensemen (and I believe MacT will do just that).

The Oilers have already made their decision on Ladislav Smid, signing the reliable defender to a long term deal.

Likely trade option from this part of the roster: Gagner, Peckham.

GOODBYE STRANGER

In my time as an Oilers fan (the beginning), Ales Hemsky is one of my favorites, an absolute pleasure. Brilliant, free form, stunning–he’s a sight to behold. Hemsky’s only real crime is his birth certificate and the emergence of talents like Hall and Yakupov. Hemsky’s breakout ability, his wonderful passing, his vision and his skill–are incredibly in some abundance on the current Edmonton Oilers.

The one thing that could save him? Lack of trade value. If we are to believe sources–and there are a few–then Hemsky’s deadline value doesn’t match his true value and if that is also true in summer then 83 may well return and add to what is becoming a murderer’s row of talented wingman on the Oilers.

The rest of the veterans group is a mixed bag of overpaid and useful (Horcoff), not useful (Belanger) and somewhere in between (Smyth). Nick Schultz also belongs in this group and I do believe there’s a chance he’ll be dealt in the off-season (his money going to Mark Streit). Mike Brown.

There’s one great truth about veterans on losing teams: they take a big hit to their reputations, and sometimes a season or two spent in the basement means the end. Belanger may be there, sadly Smyth too. And Schultz the elder can see the sign post up ahead.

Likely trade option from this part of the roster: Hemsky, Schultz the elder.

NOTHING BUT FLOWERS

This is the part of the roster we should stare at all summer, in silent wonder. Steve Tambellini’s inertia weaved a future of greatness beyond wild dreams.

Taylor Hall is the 5×5 psycho killer other teams used to send there to put down our season. The support group includes a younger man who may surpass Hall, a sublime and cerebral center with the anticipation of Forsberg the great, a scorer/passer in Eberle and a wunderkind defenseman who flew in from Wisconsin on the red eye.

And let’s not forget about Jeff Petry, a young defender signed to a nice contract and on the way to a solid NHL career, and G Devan Dubnyk who has developed into an average or slightly above average NHL goalie.

Thank you sweet baby Jesus.

STUCK INSIDE MOBILE WITH THE MEMPHIS BLUES AGAIN

And now we are here. Craig MacTavish has a tough chore: improve the team without cutting too deeply into that wonderful youth cluster. Along with Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky, along with Nick Schultz and Theo Peckham there is one man listed above who “could” be included in a blockbuster, franchise changing deal:

  • Devan Dubnyk. We’ve heard rumblings around Luongo and Ben Bishop in the recent past, and if the club is going to add a headliner like Luongo or even a solid backup like Bishop it may suggest the club is not completely satisfied with Dubnyk moving forward.

Note: I’m not suggesting it is a fact, just reading tea leaves.

If we’re talking about MacT making his mark, I think our agreed upon guesses (shoring up D, adding a veteran winger or two, backup G) are still the right ones. However, MacT’s quote given to Elliotte Friedman suggests we might want to look beyond for possibilities: a power forward, a big center, a #1 defenseman and as I’m suggesting this morning a new #1 goaltender.

Interesting spring and summer ahead.

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170 Responses to "DUCKS AT OILERS G44 (12-13) 21.4.13"

  1. Smarmy says:

    At this point in his career I don’t think Hemsky’s birth certificate has anything to do with people maligning his ability.

    His production is down and injuries are taking their toll. I just don’t see a five million dollar player here.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Smarmy:
    At this point in his career I don’t think Hemsky’s birth certificate has anything to do with people maligning his ability.

    His production is down and injuries are taking their toll. I just don’t see a five million dollar player here.

    I’m talking in terms of the Oilers. He is outside the cluster in age terms by about 7 years–that’s a lot. I still think they should keep him though and disagree about the $5M. He’s still kicking ass, specifically on the PP this season but is 6th in 5×4/60 among forwards.

  3. Brett Gee says:

    Great analysis. I agree that those 6 names should be gone. Jones included.

    Smyth? Not sure how I feel about him in any other role but 4th line wing.

    I don’t get sitting Hartikainan for Jones. I hope they don’t do it again tonight. I mean, what’s the point?

    As far as goaltending. How much better will Dubnyk be when the team in front of him is finally balanced out? To me, Dubnyk is the MVP.

  4. Brett Gee says:

    BOHOLOGO: great cover. Weird to hear that song with so much energy. Nice Theologians bridge, too.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    Bohologo: Why can’t Canada make a good movie

    …is the real question.

    65+ years of brain drain(the best and brightest all tend to leave, leaving the slugs behind to pose as the “elite” throughout society.

    Resource based economy…hardly conducive to developing arty people.

    Government interference with the quota system instead of the merit system. Those most able to suck the government tit, not the talented tend to succeed with this route.

    I could go on.

  6. rickithebear says:

    1. Dubnyk
    -Go group goalies based on shots per game.(avg 28.7/GM)
    28.2-29.2
    29.2 -30.2
    30.2-31.2
    31.2 +
    27.2 to 28.2
    26.2 – 27.2
    25.2-26.2
    25.2-
    - look at the Save % in each shot group.
    You will look @ the goalies differently.
    Dubnyk not a starter Christ!

  7. Woodguy says:

    4 exceptional solid songs today LT.

    “If this is paradise, I wish I had a lawnmower”

    I was a big Talking Heads fan in high school/university. Good times.

    I have no idea what MacT is going to do.

    I just hope that he can add:

    -2/3 LW
    -1LD
    -Upgrade 3RD
    -Actual NHLers on the 4th, or at least kids trying to establish themselves (i.e. Murphy, Gelinas, Graves)
    -2G who isn’t a huge downgrade when played or an IR risk when they get out of bed

    I hope he can do these things and leave the following players on the roster:

    4,93,64,14,91,19,2

    If he moves 89, need a real NHL 2C coming back in another deal or FA.

    My preference would be something like Kulemin and Grabovski for Gagner + something minor.

    Upgrades over all performance of 2C and adds a good 2/3 LW.

    I’m not sure you find your “permanent solution” to 1LD this summer.

    Getting a guy who can carry the mail for 1-2 years might be in order.

    UFA crop is much better next year and forcing an expensive trade or poor fit isn’t wise.

    Also,

    ANA starting to come to earth.

    They were scoring on every 9th shot and their goalies were stopping everything for the first 10 weeks.

    Like TOR , they won without winning the fenclose battle.

    It happens (like MIN last year), but in a season where there is only 48 games, they finish higher than their true talent.

    I still think ANA wins tonight as the Oilers have the worst fenclose since March 1st in the NHL. They are awful.

    Also,

    TOR making the playoffs last night makes “I know winning, I have 6 rings” Lowe the President of the NHL team with the longest current streak of being out of the playoffs.

    I don’t know how those dirty reporters dared question is SixRingness’ ability to run a team.

    Don’t they know who he is and what he’s done?

    Go Oilers!

    *clap,clap*

  8. Ducey says:

    rickithebear:
    1. Dubnyk
    -Go group goalies based on shots per game.(avg 28.7/GM)
    28.2-29.2
    29.2 -30.2
    30.2-31.2
    31.2 +
    27.2 to 28.2
    26.2 – 27.2
    25.2-26.2
    25.2-
    - look at the Save % in each shot group.
    You will look @ the goalies differently.
    Dubnyk not a starter Christ!

    My RickitheBear to English translator is on the fritz again. Anyone have any idea what this means?

  9. stevezie says:

    hunter1909,

    That’s mostly true, except Canada has made plenty of great movies. Just a couple years ago Incendies was the best flick made anywhere in the world that year, at least according to one prominent critic.

  10. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    1. Dubnyk
    -Go group goalies based on shots per game.(avg 28.7/GM)
    28.2-29.2
    29.2 -30.2
    30.2-31.2
    31.2 +
    27.2 to 28.2
    26.2 – 27.2
    25.2-26.2
    25.2-
    - look at the Save % in each shot group.
    You will look @ the goalies differently.
    Dubnyk not a starter Christ!

    I don’t think anyone is saying he’s not a starter, his .922SP is very good and his EV SP has improved this season. I think this is more about the Oilers and what they want to move forward with in goal, and the Luongo and Bishop rumors suggest they are not completely satisfied.

    It could be they’ll get a solid backup–that would be my preference. However, the Oilers like to have a “proven” guy in goal, have for years. Certainly since Joseph the organization feels the grass is greener elsewhere and that may be the case now.

    I’d stick with Dubnyk, but no one is calling me to ask. :-)

  11. lazerguidedmelody says:

    RNH done, as per Twitter

    @EdmontonOilers 1m
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will fly to Cleveland today to have his shoulder examined. Surgery is likely, will miss remainder of season.

  12. Ducey says:

    lazerguidedmelody:
    RNH done, as per Twitter

    @EdmontonOilers 1m
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will fly to Cleveland today to have his shoulder examined. Surgery is likely, will miss remainder of season.

    If its the Hall/ Hemsky/ Gernat surgery, he likely won’t be ready for training camp.

    Good that they have finally pulled the trigger, but they could have made the decision 2 weeks ago (or sooner).

    This should help the fall.

  13. FPB94 says:

    LT: If they find DD (,921) to be the ”problem” to be fixed with a sucker like Luongo (,913) I think i’ll just turn off the lights.

  14. Woodguy says:

    lazerguidedmelody:
    RNH done, as per Twitter

    @EdmontonOilers 1m
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will fly to Cleveland today to have his shoulder examined. Surgery is likely, will miss remainder of season.

    This stupid fucking organization will never get out of their own way.

    One of their most gifted kids needs shoulder surgery and they play him too long in meaningless games, or even at all?

    Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    I hope this bullshit stops now that MacT is running the ship.

    Stupid assholes.

    Assholes.

  15. rickithebear says:

    2. Gagner:
    From last post relating to rajalas being a 32EVP player NHLE.
    //Might want to look @ our even scoring last 3 years.
    10-11:
    Gagner 32P
    hall 31
    Hemsky 31
    Eberle 30
    Cogliano 27
    MP 25
    11-12
    Eberle 56
    Smyth 38
    Gagner 35
    Hall 32
    RNH 29
    Hemsky 27
    12-13
    Hall 60
    Eberle 41
    Gagner 34
    Yakupov 32
    RNH 26
    we really need even scoring!
    32P averages top 3 last 3 years.??
    Gagner was 1st, 3rd, 3rd. averaged 34 EVP (top 40 EVP centres)

    He is 2.00EVP/60 forward. 2.75GF/60
    Problem is 1st comp and upper second he is a 3.15GA/60 Fwd.
    3rd comp he is 2.25GA/60
    Role him against 2nd comp in Ozone and 3rd comp in Dzone.

    Centers with that role last 3 years.
    E. Staal
    Kadri
    Getzlaf
    S. Koivu
    M. Kruger
    J.Staal PIT
    M. richards PHI
    C. wilson NSH
    Skinner CAR (wing)
    Stepan NYR
    Turris OTT

    this year the best special team forward in the game.

  16. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think anyone is saying he’s not a starter, his .922SP is very good and his EV SP has improved this season. I think this is more about the Oilers and what they want to move forward with in goal, and the Luongo and Bishop rumors suggest they are not completely satisfied.

    It could be they’ll get a solid backup–that would be my preference. However, the Oilers like to have a “proven” guy in goal, have for years. Certainly since Joseph the organization feels the grass is greener elsewhere and that may be the case now.

    I’d stick with Dubnyk, but no one is calling me to ask.

    Run the numbers!
    They are idiots.

  17. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy: This stupid fucking organization will never get out of their own way.

    One of their most gifted kids needs shoulder surgery and they play him too long in meaningless games, or even at all?

    Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    I hope this bullshit stops now that MacT is running the ship.

    Stupid assholes.

    Assholes.

    If I am Hopkins’ agent, I’m furious about this.

    Playing the kid in meaningless games long after any realistic notion of making the playoffs is gone is close to abuse.

    If Hopkins follows the Hall timeline of recovery, this likely means he won’t be ready to play until November…in a contract year.

    A cynical observer might think that was the Oilers’ plan.

    But Oilers.

  18. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy: This stupid fucking organization will never get out of their own way.

    One of their most gifted kids needs shoulder surgery and they play him too long in meaningless games, or even at all?

    Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    I hope this bullshit stops now that MacT is running the ship.

    Stupid assholes.

    Assholes.

    Agreed 100%, they weren’t playing meaningful games, and realistically were not going to make the playoffs. Why risk not having your #1 center not ready for next season… oilers :(

  19. BlacqueJacque says:

    I hope Smytty has the sense to retire, but I seriously doubt it. The man is passionate and loves hockey and seems like the type who will cling to a career after he should call it quits.

  20. Hammers says:

    Good analysis but I would add Belanger to your 6 gone .If RNH needs shoulder surgery there goes Oct/Nov next year especially if Gags is traded for a top”D” player . If they loose today why not give a couple of players from OKL a couple of games . May help them in there playoff run , shows confidence and can’t do any harm to the Oil .

  21. In the Grease says:

    Ducey: If its the Hall/ Hemsky/ Gernat surgery, he likely won’t be ready for training camp.

    Good that they have finally pulled the trigger, but they could have made the decision 2 weeks ago (or sooner).

    This should help the fall.

    @EdmontonOilers

    “RNH says his expected shoulder procedure is very close to, if not the same, as Taylor Hall’s surgery”

    If memory serves Hall and Hemsky had their procedure for a torn meniscus, so it sounds like the same deal for RNH. Actually minimally invasive, and true it does not heal itself. You can play with it, just painful, and affects range of motion. My brother had the same surgery, and was in and out procedure. He played volleyball with it for a while, but it can deteriorate.

    Sounds like Gernat’s surgery was different, if they took a tendon from his bicep to replace one in his shoulder – and they thought time might heal it.

    Good news is – if it is that – he will fully recover and hopefully be better next season.

    But yeah, agreed… why wait even this long?

  22. rickithebear says:

    Ducey: My RickitheBear to English translator is on the fritz again. Anyone have any idea what this means?

    i said create shot groups.
    the average for starters is 28.7
    I wonder what 28.2-29.2 means!
    Could it mean all the goalies that face 28.2 to 29.2 shots per game.
    holy shit sherlock!

    Then look @ save % in each group.
    Cream @ the top.

    What do you bet alot more high save% goalies in the lower shots per game group.

  23. russ99 says:

    Dubnyk’s numbers are pretty solid, i think some fans are put off by the occasional soft goal…

    He’s only 26 (goalies take longer to develop) and this is his third full season, there’s still room for growth, and maybe it’s a good thing to have a 6-5 goalie in an era when goalie equipment is shrinking.

    Plus his contract is fairly team-friendly, especially if he improves further.

    Lots of other spots to look at on the roster before worrying about starting goalie, like punting our entire roster of bottom 6 players save Paajarvi, Hartikainen and maybe Lander & Brown.

    One other thing, this idea that the Oilers need to only acquire players in the age range of the kids is pretty ludicrous. We need good kids and good veterans.

    If we’re not signing anyone over age 25, it will take 8-10 years for us to become cup contenders. This team badly needs an infusion of big, skilled veteran leaders to teach these kids how much work it takes to win, something very much lacking in our current veteran leadership group.

  24. rickithebear says:

    BlacqueJacque: I hope Smytty has the sense to retire, but I seriously doubt it. The man is passionate and loves hockey and seems like the type who will cling to a career after he should call it quits.

    Best EVP totals last three years.
    Hall 60 EVP
    Eberle 56
    Eberle 41
    SMYTH 38
    Gagner 35
    gagner 34
    Gagner 32
    hall 32
    Yakupov 32

  25. Smarmy says:

    So Six Rings and Tambi said the goal was the playoffs and they did nothing while Horcoff and Belanger went down and RNH was gimped the whole season? (And he was since the shoulder was an issue before, during and just after the WJC.

    If I was a billionaire I wonder if I would turn the other way while a buffoon damaged my multi-million dollar assets.

  26. Smarmy says:

    russ99:
    Dubnyk’s numbers are pretty solid, i think some fans are put off by the occasional soft goal…

    I hate seeing stinky goals and moan when Dubnyk lets them in but every goalie lets in stinkers. And if you give him some slack for that he’s had a great year.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Tyler Hupka ‏@HBomb1982 9m
    Us here next April saying “If RNH had been able to play in October, the Oil wouldn’t have missed the playoffs” – that’s my fear right now.

    That’s it right there.

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 21m
    “We discussed it a little bit during the year. It’s something that doesn’t fix itself. It has to be taken care of.” – RNH

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 21m
    RNH says his expected shoulder procedure is very close to, if not the same, as Taylor Hall’s surgery

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 19m
    “The plan was to get (the surgery) done before the season ends so I’m recovered and good to go before next season.” – RNH

    So the timeline on Hall’s recover was 5-6 months. The lockout kept us from seeing how close he would have been in October and he went for surgery shortly after March 27.

    Its bloody April 21st and they finally shut RNH down after knowing all year.

    So he “might” be able to go in late October.

    I can’t stand these people.

  28. Woodguy says:

    Smarmy:
    So Six Rings and Tambi said the goal was the playoffs and they did nothing while Horcoff and Belanger went down and RNH was gimped the whole season? (And he was since the shoulder was an issue before, during and just after the WJC.

    If I was a billionaire I wonder if I would turn the other way while a buffoon damaged my multi-million dollar assets.

    Exactly.

  29. In the Grease says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    I hope Smytty has the sense to retire, but I seriously doubt it.The man is passionate and loves hockey and seems like the type who will cling to a career after he should call it quits.

    My only thought is that some of the vets who didn’t play during the lockout ended up in a weird spot conditioning wise, and out of sync all year, trying to play catch up. I think it could be possible if Smytty trains like a maniac this summer he could have a bounce back season next year and be an effective 4 line LW with a proper center…. but I would be ok with him retiring too. or an Honorable Discharge.

  30. jimbones100 says:

    Very interesting point LT that chronic losing teams can threaten the career of veteran players. You pointed out the obvious veteran players who have seen their value league wide reduced but I am interesting in analyzing our one key veteran:

    Shawn Horcoff . When we went through our losing streak, mid season, it was rightfully pointed out that the team missed the presence of it’s veteran center. However, during the recent losing streak, that seen the team eliminated from the playoffs, Horcoff seemed unable to influence the result in a positive way to stop the losing streak. This losing with Horcoff in the lineup is consistent with what has happened over the past 7 years. Now I’m not suggesting one player is to blame but I am suggesting that Horcoff does not have the ability to be our premier veteran forward that can get a team a win when they really need it.

    What do the advanced stats say regarding 10′s performance? What role should we reasonably expect from 10 for next year?

    I feel confident that Mac T will know what role is best for 10 and what he can reasonably contribute. Does Mac T move 89 and slide 10 into the 2C role? Or does Mac T acquire a new veteran center and move 10 into the 4C role with a PK focus?

  31. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy,

    Souray is in town tonight…maybe someone should ask him what he thinks about this :)

  32. Gino says:

    I too like yourself have been tied to this team since the beginning of the Alberta Oiler days of long ago and enjoyed many a game in that old Edmonton Gardens barn.
    I was a fan of the big bad Bruins of Hodge, Cashman, McKenzie, Sanderson, Awrey and Teddy Green before the Oilers arrived thanks to Bill Hunter.
    This team has lost its way and I only see a few players that convey a style of play I enjoy watching.
    This is the NHL and you have to fight for every inch every shift/game.
    There is a nucleus that is being built here in Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Eberle, (4 forwards) J.Schultz, Smid, Petry (3 defenseman) and Dubnyk but after that please get me some additions with (as Mac T says) grit with some skill to enhance that forward and defence group.
    I like you also have enjoyed the upmost skill of Hemsky thru the years and what he’s done during his time here (who can forget that playoff game against Detroit) but it’s time to move on as the forward core above will achieve something more in the near future with or without him.
    The current group of Oiler UFA’s IMO shouldn’t even be considered for employment by this team next year and with the RFA’s sign Gagner if possible to a reasonable (4.7M/YR) long term deal which is trade friendly. Offer qualifying offers to Paajarvi, Hartikainen, and Fedun and let the others walk.
    Goodbye Belanger and Eager and the pieces left over after the first flush will be on the outs in the near future as well when hopefully they are replaced.

  33. In the Grease says:

    “AS PLAYOFF HOPES DIM, OILERS FACE MUST-WIN AGAINST THE DUCKS”

    Really TSN?? Oilers playoff “hopes” are “dim”? Fire the editor.

  34. rickithebear says:

    Smyth was successful with gagner and eberle
    eberle 1.743 GF/20 .743GA/20
    gagner 1.308 GF/20 .393GA/20

    Results with viable minutes players.
    +ve player w/
    RNH, gagner, eberle, yakupov, Lander
    -ve
    Petrell, Brown, Eager, Jones, Belanger, Horcoff, Hemsky, MP.

  35. OilClog says:

    rickithebear: Run the numbers!
    They are idiots.

    They’re

  36. Gino says:

    lazerguidedmelody,

    This explains why only 4 goals this season, that shoulder with limited range of motion must of really affected his shooting.

  37. steveb12344 says:

    In the Grease: “AS PLAYOFF HOPES DIM, OILERS FACE MUST-WIN AGAINST THE DUCKS” Really TSN?? Oilers playoff “hopes” are “dim”? Fire the editor.

    How about this gem from NHL.com.

    Prior to a crucial game Sunday against the Anaheim Ducks, the Oilers reported Nugent-Hopkins will travel to Cleveland to have his shoulder examined, with surgery a likely possibility.

    The Oilers need a win to keep their hopes for a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs alive. They enter the game 12th in the Western Conference, seven points behind the eighth-place Columbus Blue Jackets with five games remaining.

    LOL

  38. Derek says:

    While doing a little light reading on the interweb this morning I happened upon a possession analysis post at Eyes on the Prize by Chris Boyle which was linked by Ryan Batty at Copper n Blue in his post about the playoff drought torch being passed from Toronto to Edmonton.

    Anyways, I’d never seen Fenwick represented in this manner and found it quite interesting, and a bit sad as an Oiler fan. It’s almost a month old now so maybe most of you’ve already seen it, but I’ll share it nonetheless.

    The OP: http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    High-res Graphic (click to zoom): http://i.imgur.com/zi0yJGp.jpg

    I eagerly await the ensuing argument about the merits of SF/SA vs GF/GA based analysis. :)

  39. Lowetide says:

    Derek: THAT is awesome!

  40. rickithebear says:

    jimbones100: Horcoff seemed unable to influence the result in a positive way to stop the losing streak

    really!
    Really!
    Look @ Jones, Horcoff, Yakupov.
    hall, RNH, MP, Smyth all -4
    Eberle -8.

    you might want to look at game logs!

  41. Woodguy says:

    Captain Happy:
    Woodguy,

    Souray is in town tonight…maybe someone should ask him what he thinks about this

    Haha!

    I’d love to see Souray say:

    “They pressured me to return from shoulder surgery early and it wrecked my year. Ryan shouldn’t let them do that to him.”

  42. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Derek: THAT is awesome!

    That is pretty brilliant.

    Thanks for the link Derek.

    Another piece of evidence that the Oilers are more like the Thrashers than any other rebuilding team.

  43. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy,

    Gregor has done the math over at ON:

    “Hall’s season ended on March 27th last year, he had surgery on April 3rd, and he played his first game in OKC on November 2nd, 2012.

    Nugent-Hopkins might have surgery as early as this Tuesday, April 23rd, but that means he likely won’t play until mid-November.

    Due to the lockout the Oilers didn’t have to rush Hall back, and the Oilers will need to fight the urge to get RNH back on the ice next season.”

  44. Derek says:

    Woodguy: That is pretty brilliant.

    Thanks for the link Derek.

    Another piece of evidence that the Oilers are more like the Thrashers than any other rebuilding team.

    Puh-lease. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-KAoQ6mgNk&t=3m4s

  45. jfry says:

    I mentioned it to wg on the twitter. But this RNH injury might prove a great opportunity for the oil, if we can sign him to a bridge contract similar to duchene.

    Obviously, I’d rather he be healthy, but RNH for two more years at 4m would help us a lot compared to Eb’s 6m

  46. Captain Happy says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 37m

    “This week is still very important for us, but getting him back a week earlier next year made the decision.” – Krueger on RNH

    Jeebus.

    Important how, exactly?

  47. jake70 says:

    RNH – Why didn’t they send him earlier….stupid. Too many variables I guess – chance to play in WJC, Lockout, real chances of making playoffs. I would have sent him weeks ago if it was inevitable he would need the surgery. It’s not like they were division leaders or 3rd or 4th in conference where they need him to help prevent a slide down the standings. Having him healthy for a full season next year would be more important than chasing 8th this year. Tough call and who knows what the player’s wishes were.

  48. G Money says:

    “RNH has a long-standing shoulder injury that will require surgery??? I am shocked and surprised, and especially so that this wasn’t taken care of earlier!” said absolutely no Oiler fan anywhere.

  49. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    The sad part is…many of us here were saying his shoulder was hurt. Many more were calling for the oilers to shut RNH down and get him surgery.

    This was a lost season/team almost from the beginning.

    Actually, more than sad story.

    Yet another example of why the Oilers are so heavily regarded around the NHL.

  50. gogliano says:

    Oilers weren’t really out of the playoffs until April 8th (the loss to Anaheim). Even then they had a very outside shot. If there was no long term damage to let him play I think giving him the opportunity to play until mid-April made perfect sense.

    So we’re screaming about 13 days turnaround here. And I’m assuming a change in GM has kept management busy during those 13 days.

  51. jfry says:

    It’s funny to think back that we didn’t get another centre when horcoff and Belanger went down, knowing nuge was duct taped together.

    Fuck, tambi’s a loser. No other way to put it.

  52. jake70 says:

    The first question Stu will ask the prospective draft picks: So _________, how do you feel about having shoulder surgery.

    If I am the Oilers, I am asking that clinic in Cleveland for coupons – 5 surgeries for price of 4.

  53. Captain Happy says:

    gogliano:
    Oilers weren’t really out of the playoffs until April 8th (the loss to Anaheim).Even then they had a very outside shot.

    We’re screaming about 13 days turnaround here.And I’m assuming a change in GM has kept management busy during those 13 days.

    Two weeks without a first line centre could be HUGE to start next season.

    And that two weeks is just a minimum.

    If the Oilers had the centre depth to cope (like the Canucks without Kesler) fine.

    But they don’t.

  54. VanOil says:

    Woodguy:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    Stupid assholes.

    Assholes.

    This was the most obvious and heart breaking Oilers move of the season. The whole management team deserves a swift kick in the balls for this one. Playing at least 3 months next season without our first line center hurts our playoff chances no matter what moves are made in the off season. Even if he returns early, through what we have witnessed with other Oiler players, he is unlikely to be in top form until at least January.

    As for the thread of LT’s musically soothing post. I would prefer if none of our UFAs are signed.

    I am resigned to the fact Smyth and Brown are signed for next year. But as a utility forward and a knuckle drager being the 13th and 14th forwards playing around 40 games each I have no problem. Belanger can take his triangle with him into the sunset.

    I don’t know if anyone is willing to take on Hemsky’s contract in this cap crunch year. I have loved his play for the Oilers but am willing to wish him happy trails for a top 4 defender.

    Thinking of Hemsky’s birth certificate. Sadly it never landed us Jagr. What an inspiration he would have been to the kids over the last couple years. Smid being Gernat’s diet and fitness consultant this summer and next is promising, Ladi is a true pro when it comes to fitness.

    Maybe Ralph’s Swiss connections will help us land a player from the Islanders. No not the old one, Nino Niederreiter, a promising LW wing power forward. I figure Rajala and Teubert would pry him free. While next year would still be a learning curve, and with Nuge gone probably an ugly one, 2014 could be amazing with a top nine looking like this:

    Hall-RNH-Eberle the Candain Line
    Nino-Barkov-Yak the UN Line
    Paajarvi-Lander-Hartikainen the Nordic Line

    That is an all world top 9. Who even in 2014 would be very young and likely to dominate the NHL for a decade. One can dream, and needs too when the Oilers keep on chucking nightmares. Assholes.

  55. hunter1909 says:

    After looking at the standings:

    After ignoring the OT points altogether, the top teams have far, far better W-L records than mere point totals show.

    Hawks 34-5
    Pittsburgh 34-10
    Habs 27-13

    Therefore, forget about OT points. All they do is provide solace for palookas who still think 18-18-8 is .500 hockey.

  56. gogliano says:

    VanOil: This was the most obvious and heart breaking Oilers move of the season. The whole management team deserves a swift kick in the balls for this one. Playing at least 3 months next season without our first line center hurts our playoff chances no matter what moves are made in the off season. Even if he returns early, through what we have witnessed with other Oiler players, he is unlikely to be in top form until at least January.

    As for the thread of LT’s musically soothing post. I would prefer if none of our UFAs are signed.

    I am resigned to the fact Smyth and Brown are signed for next year. But as a utility forward and a knuckle drager being the 13th and 14th forwards playing around 40 games each I have no problem. Belanger can take his triangle with him into the sunset.

    I don’t know if anyone is willing to take on Hemsky’s contract in this cap crunch year. I have loved his play for the Oilers but am willing to wish him happy trails for a top 4 defender.

    Thinking of Hemsky’s birth certificate. Sadly it never landed us Jagr. What an inspiration he would have been to the kids over the last couple years. Smid being Gernat’s diet and fitness consultant this summer and next is promising, Ladi is a true pro when it comes to fitness.

    Maybe Ralph’s Swiss connections will help us land a player from the Islanders. No not the old one, Nino Niederreiter, a promising LW wing power forward. I figure Rajala and Teubert would pry him free. While next year would still be a learning curve, and with Nuge gone probably an ugly one, 2014 could be amazing with a top nine looking like this:

    Hall-RNH-Eberle the Candain Line
    Nino-Barkov-Yak the UN Line
    Paajarvi-Lander-Hartikainen the Nordic Line

    That is an all world top 9. Who even in 2014 would be very young and likely to dominate the NHL for a decade. One can dream, and needs too when the Oilers keep on chucking nightmares. Assholes.

    You’re anticipating a minimum 9 month recovery time?

  57. Derek says:

    Put 4 in the middle for the rest of the season. I know, I know, everyone thinks that’s a terrible idea but I must see it with my own eyes to believe it. It would be nice if the club knew they had a viable “SHORT TERM” solution for next fall at the center position heading into negotations with Gagner.

  58. commonfan14 says:

    So based on the last Olympic year schedule from 2009-10, Nuge is likely to miss around 20 games.

    Looks like we will not be drafting Nichushkin unless there”s an agreement to kill his KHL contract. Our 2013 first round pick will be a C, and he will be making the team out of camp.

  59. gogliano says:

    Captain Happy: Two weeks without a first line centre could be HUGE to start next season.

    And that two weeks is just a minimum.

    If the Oilers had the centre depth to cope (like the Canucks without Kesler) fine.

    But they don’t.

    Can you fill me on MacT’s starting lineup in the fall? I haven’t seen it yet.

  60. VanOil says:

    gogliano: You’re anticipating a minimum 9 month recovery time?

    Yes, I injured my shoulder in 1998, it still is not right, but I am a big wimp.

    Hall returned in November but was not very good until December. iirc.

    Hemsky took a full year++ to appear OK.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Remember Mike Grier? I don’t even know if he ever had shoulder surgery as an Oiler but he sure as hell had shoulder problems.

  62. Captain Happy says:

    gogliano: Can you fill me on MacT’s starting lineup in the fall?I haven’t seen it yet.

    I guess if you think MacT can go out and find a #1C and a #2C this offseason, all will be well.

    BTW, how much bargaining power does Gagner’s agent have now?

  63. Ribs says:

    Woodguy: This stupid fucking organization will never get out of their own way.

    One of their most gifted kids needs shoulder surgery and they play him too long in meaningless games, or even at all?

    +1. See ya in January, Nuge. Fuhhhk.

    Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    I hope this bullshit stops now that MacT is running the ship.

    Stupid assholes.

    Assholes.

  64. slopitch says:

    I got a text from a buddy 2-3 weeks ago saying “Horc told me Nuge’s shoulder is broken and he’ll be going for surgery as soon as the season is over.” Well its over. Glad they didn’t wait but they could have done it maybe 10 days earlier.

    Missing one player for a month isn’t gonna kill us. Look at Pittsburgh. Look at Ottawa in the playoffs despite missing Spezza and Karlsson most of the year. They are doing it with the “Calder Line” and depth in the lineup. They also got Turris almost for free. We will find out soon how aggressive MacT will be at improving the depth of this team. Nuge hasn’t been that good this year and will come back better. I hope they don’t rush him.

  65. Ribs says:

    On the plus side, how frikkin’ good is RNH going to be with two shoulders?

  66. Rondo says:

    I hope Mac will make a change for the future and not a band -aid solution just to get in the playoffs. Getting a player like Streit would help the D but again a band-aid solution, the guy is too old. I think they should look at Dmen like this Ryan McDonagh , Zach Bogosian or Adam Larsson. All young and all with high upside. Obviously they may not be on the market. But when your talking Eberle I think teams may listen.

  67. justDOit says:

    Lowetide:
    Remember Mike Grier? I don’t even know if he ever had shoulder surgery as an Oiler but he sure as hell had shoulder problems.

    Grier would pop that shoulder back in on the bench and barely miss a shift!

  68. prairieschooner says:

    No to Luongo
    It would just be too much to hear Nuuuuuge and Luuuuuuu all night long

  69. justDOit says:

    From the Oilers’ website, Lander skated as 2C this morning. This should be interesting.

  70. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy: This stupid fucking organization will never get out of their own way.

    One of their most gifted kids needs shoulder surgery and they play him too long in meaningless games, or even at all?

    Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    I hope this bullshit stops now that MacT is running the ship.

    Stupid assholes.

    Assholes.

    I’d bet you’d get no argument from Sheldon Souray on any of this.

    Whomever has been calling the shots on these injuries the past few years needs to be let go immediately. It’s a joke.

    It’s also somewhat disturbing to hear Steve Ott speak of how he and a couple of other Stars players used to have hit contests when they played the OIlers because, well just because they could. The Oilers were the softest team in the NHL and there’d be no repercussions.

    I’m not advocating Gorilla tactics going forward but I do think what Ott says speaks to a root problem. Oilers need free ice and lots of it to let their talent do it’s thing. Some nights the smart teams aren’t going to give it to them.

  71. G Money says:

    justDOit:
    From the Oilers’ website, Lander skated as 2C this morning. This should be interesting.

    “Set helm to ‘Best possible draft position’. Full power!”

  72. justDOit says:

    G Money: “Set helm to ‘Best possible draft position’. Full power!”

    Heh – “Strap what’s left of Lander’s confidence to the bow for extra armour!”

  73. BlacqueJacque says:

    G Money,

    That’s not quite fair, they could slot Smithson there. It’s likely more a test of Lander’s abilities, and giving him an opportunity with Magnus/Yak.

  74. justDOit says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    And if nothing else, a good starting point for MacBlender 2.0.

  75. Woodguy says:

    G Money: “Set helm to ‘Best possible draft position’. Full power!”

    Flames recall 7 players from Abbotsford.

    http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=666880

    I love that after wining 2 in a row, they put the full brakes on.

  76. asiaoil says:

    Hey you’ve got to admit that it takes an unreal level of mgmt fail to not only screw up this season but probably next season as well. These guys ARE GOOD at finishing in the lottery.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Just do it: I know! Loved that guy.

    I don’t blame the Oilers for pushing for the playoffs with the best available talent, but they should have sent him to Cleveland earlier than now imo. And of course it goes without saying that they had to have made certain that there was no chance of making the injury worse (while playing this season).

  78. asiaoil says:

    The timeline should always have been when do we have to shut him down to be ready for TC next season. They are screwed this year by having RNH at far less than 100% this season – that’s no one’s fault – but to compound that loss by having him missing any of next season is a firing offense. This confirms that these mgmt muppets were actually trying to win and that this season’s pathetic display of ineptness is actually their best effort. Good thing they are all coming back next year except for the sock puppet.

  79. cabbiesmacker says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    G Money,

    .It’s likely more a test of Lander’s abilities, and giving him an opportunity with Magnus/Yak.

    Well sure. Either that or just blatant stupidity

  80. jonrmcleod says:

    I like the choice of “Karma Police.” Finally a song I actually listen to!

  81. leadfarmer says:

    Just as I suspected for a while. He’s got a bum shoulder. But you cant blame this on management without knowing the conversation that was going on. Many non athletes have these type of injuries and dont ever do anything about it. Nuge seems like the type of guy that will play at 90% and that he did not want to sit all year and then all of offseason. Now that the tank is on he is being sat.

    Oh yea and please show me where the shoulder meniscus is. And for the love of God leave Lander alone. Keep him in the minors.

  82. justDOit says:

    Most relevant song I can think of, considering RNH’s shoulder news today…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfSfhnbV2YA

    Warning: Zappa content. Not my favorite version of this FZ composition, but few exist on the tube.

  83. misfit says:

    Hartikainen seems like an excellent replacement for Smyth on the 4th line LW spot after next year. I still believe Smyth is the better option now.

    There’s a lot of talk about Smyth being useless now, but I don’t share that opinion. Aside from his skating (which was a problem when he was 20), and one game where he was called for about 16 minutes in penalties, Smyth doesn’t look any less effective to my eye. If he wasn’t carrying a 3.1% shooting percentage (he had a SH% that low once in his career and it was after the 94 lockout), he’d be on pace for something like 30 points. For a guy on the 4th line and out of position for the majority of the season, I’d say that’s actually quite good.

    Smyth is a poor skater, and always has been, but poor skating can be made up for by actually knowing where you’re supposed to go. Smyth, more often than not, takes the straight line between A and B (and actually knows what that line needs to be). Take a look at Brown for example. He’s a very good skater, but on his way from A to B, he makes stops at C, D, and E because he doesn’t seem to understand what’s going on. That’s not to say Smyth’s skating doesn’t hurt him, but he has the smarts to be useful despite that handicap.

    I’d love to see MacT bring in a 2/3 LW and roll Hall/Paajarvi/NEW GUY/Smyth down the port side with Hartikainen in Smyth’s place in 14/15 and in Brown’s next year. I do fear that Teemu will get the #2 LW position by default which he probably isn’t ready for.

  84. godot10 says:

    Some of you guys are still judging Lander, by the Lander that was forced to play between Eager and Petrell.

    Lander has offensive skill to play with good players, but he is NOT a puck transporter. Paajarvi and Yakupov are puck transporters. He will be fine.

  85. Lucinius says:

    Looks like the Barons are resting a bunch of players? At least, Marincin isn’t playing tonight and both Eager and Hordichuk are playing (poor Pelss stuck with Hordichuk) and Hovinen starting. Be interesting to see how the Barons do in the playoffs.

  86. vishcosity says:

    If they’re looking for a defenceman to go with the cluster, he would likely come from the draft year 2005 – 2010. a future #1 should have the trust of their coach already (minimum 15:00 TOI) start in the d zone often, then get the puck to the forwards who eventually put it in the net (minimum 0.3 points/game) and have been in the league early and consistently since their draft. So I’m limiting the data to require minimum games played according to their relative draft year. (2006 300+ GP, 2007 250+ GP, 2008 200+ GP, 2009 150+ GP, 2010 100+ GP).

    Meeting all those requirements then organized in terms of O zone finish % – O zone start % for this 2012 – 13 season yields:

    Jack Johnson 8.9
    Victor Hedman 8.8
    Jake Gardiner 5.9
    Dalton Prout 5.4
    Jared Cowen 4.3
    Zach Bogosian 4.2
    Roman Josi 4
    Niklas Hjalmarsson 3.6
    Justin Faulk 3.6
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson 3.3
    Marc-Edouard Vlasic 2.5
    Matt Niskanen 2
    Kris Letang 1.5
    Dmitry Orlov 1.3
    Cam Fowler 1.2
    Luke Schenn 1.1
    John Carlson 0.9
    Ryan Ellis -0.1
    Tim Erixon -0.6
    Simon Despres -1
    Luca Sbisa -1.1
    John Moore -1.4
    Alex Pietrangelo -2
    Travis Hamonic -2.2
    Slava Voynov -2.3
    Kris Russell -2.5
    Anton Stralman -2.7
    Tyler Myers -2.8
    Dmitry Kulikov -3
    Erik Gudbranson -3
    Drew Doughty -3.3
    Nick Leddy -4.1
    Stefan Elliott -5.5
    Marc Staal -5.9
    Erik Karlsson -6.1
    Michael Del Zotto -8.3
    Keith Yandle -8.3
    David Rundblad -27

    I cannot believe that Jack Johnson is #1. It makes me think I did it wrong.

  87. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Just as I suspected for a while.He’s got a bum shoulder.But you cant blame this on management without knowing the conversation that was going on.Many non athletes have these type of injuries and dont ever do anything about it.Nuge seems like the type of guy that will play at 90% and that he did not want to sit all year and then all of offseason. Now that the tank is on he is being sat.

    Oh yea and please show me where the shoulder meniscus is.And for the love of God leave Lander alone.Keep him in the minors.

    Re: the converation going on (posted earlier in the thread)

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 21m
    “We discussed it a little bit during the year. It’s something that doesn’t fix itself. It has to be taken care of.” – RNH

    Dumb not to shut him down earlier.

    Just stupid.

  88. dangilitis says:

    BG14,

    I just wanted to address this point because the cap is not coming into the equation when we look forward at what to do. The Oilers have plenty of needs but the young guys are not cheap. ELC are expensive for the 1st round talents, and we have a lot of them. 3.775 is listed on capgeek and this includes bonuses (are these still included in the cap hit under the new contract?)

    A lot of people were suggesting a Lucic for Hemsky deal, which I doubt would ever happen (Boston would be looking to shed cap hit, not take back a 5 mil player who can’t reliably crack top 2 lines). But say we pulled off this trade. Slot Lucic in instead of Hemsky, and add another ELC of a 1st round draft pick. Say this 1st round draft pick is a forward, which it may very well be.

    Nuge-Hall-Eberle: 3.775-6-6 = 15.775
    Gagner-Lucic-Yakupov: 4.5(est)-6-3.775 = 14.275
    Horcoff-ELC-MPS: 5.5-3.775-2(est) = 11.275
    Smyth-Hartik-4th liner: 2.25-1.5(est)-1 = 4.75

    I was told I was being misleading by estimating a 45 million forward payroll in the future. If you look at the forward corps with Lucic instead of Hemmer in the scenario of an ELC for a 1st round forward in 2013, this will cost an eye-popping 46.1 million!!!!

    So, no, Lucic is exactly the player that could cost this franchise more years of cap grief (worse than Horcoff), and will not earn even half his salary. Ditto for Clarkson.

    Winnik would have been a great fit, as LT suggested in the off season. I wonder how much Clowe or Morrow will go for on the UFA market? Jagr?

    In my opinion, Horcoff has to go this summer, no matter how much he has meant to us for a 10 game stretch this year. If you use the compliance buyout on him, then you can resign him at a reduced cost (fans won’t like it but who gives a shit if he signs for 3 million less per year?) or sign a 3rd line veteran center UFA.

    Then you have one more compliance buyout option, and that goes to either Belanger or Smytty.

    To bring this point home, in the scenario above, you now have 18 million for your defense and goaltending.

    Smid-Petry: 5.25
    Schultz squared: 7.225

    Dubnyk 3.5
    Back up 1.5

    There’s your 18 million right there. We would have to run 2 lines of Dmen every night!!
    D is our weakest link, and we wouldn’t even have enough money to afford a bottom paring. If the Oilers D is going to be competitive without a #1 man, they need to do it by committee with 5-6 legitimate top 4 D-men sharing time. To accomplish this, we need to draft and develop and/or pick the UFA talent, and shed cap room.

    Option 1: Hemsky trade for D-man (or trade for a 2013 draft pick and buy a UFA D-man), draft a forward 1st round, replace Horcoff with a cheaper Horcoff or alternate (B Morrow?), buyout Smytty and waive Belanger

    Nuge-Hall-Eberle: 3.775-6-6 = 15.775
    Gagner-MPS-Yakupov: 4.5(est)-2.5(est)-3.775 = 11.775
    Horcoff replacement-Hartik-ELC: 2.5-1.5-3.775(est) = 7.775
    Lander-4th liner-4th liner: 1.2(est)-1.2(est)-1 = 3.4
    Total = 38.725 mil

    Smid-Petry: 5.25
    J Schultz – Legitimate Top 4 Dman (est 3.5): 7.225
    N Schultz – Klefbom (est 2): 5.5
    Total = 18

    Dubnyk-Back up: estimated 5 mil

    Total = 61 million

    This roster does not address “team toughness,” unless that ELC turns out to be a brute.

    Option 2: Draft D-man 1st round to mature for a year in AHL, trade Hemsky for sandpaper forward to fill 3rd line role (+ hopefully a draft pick), sign top 4 Dman in off season (Scuderi?), replace Horcoff with a cheaper Horcoff or alternate (B Morrow?), buyout Smytty and waive Belanger. Then dangle N Schultz and a 2nd round pick for an upgrade on defence (e.g. for another legitimate top 4 D), or trade Schultz for a draft pick (3.5 is too much for a bottom pair role) and sign another top 4 D-man (Streit?)

    Nuge-Hall-Eberle: 3.775-6-6 = 15.775
    Gagner-MPS-Yakupov: 4.5(est)-2.5(est)-3.775 = 11.775
    Horcoff replacement-Harti-”Sandpaper forward”: 2.5-1.5-2.5 = 6.5
    Lander-4th liner-4th liner: 1.2(est)-1.2(est)-1 = 3.4
    Total = 37.5 mil

    Smid-Petry: 5.25
    J Schultz – Legitimate Top 4 Dman (est 3.5): 7.225
    top 4 Dman (est 4) – Klefbom (est 2): 6
    Total = 18.5

    Dubnyk-Back up: estimated 5 mil

    Total = 61 million

    You can use either of these frameworks as a starting point. With the remaining 3 mil in each scenario, you can cover the costs of a 7th Dman and 13th forward, and then consider the merits of trading Gagner and dual offer sheets with some room to accommodate higher salaries.

    Bottom line, as much as I like Hemmer and Horcoff, we can no longer afford to pay them 1st-2nd line salaries for 3rd line roles. Starting this summer, despite what the media believes. Completely shedding the 2005-06 1st line is a thought I could never have imagined supporting (I am very nostalgic of that run), but it has to be done (net cap earnings: 12.75 million)

  89. pboy says:

    Maybe RNH can get together with the folks (cough cough HGH cough) who are helping RGIII rehab? I’m pretty sure our owner must know where to get the good stuff……

  90. RickDeckard says:

    vishcosity,

    Ozone finish is generally held not to be a skill.

    pboy,

    Or Karlsson.

  91. russ99 says:

    dangilitis,

    If you use an amnesty buyout, you can’t reacquire the player for a year.

    IMO, Horcoff and Smyth are the buyouts, unless Smyth retires, then he’s swapped with Belanger. You just don’t get enough cap savings with anyone else, except Schultz the older, and he has bottom pairing and trade value.

    Horcoff needs to be bought out just as much for what he doesn’t bring to the room as what he doesn’t bring to the ice.

    When was the last time we had a good captain, Gator??

  92. vishcosity says:

    RickDeckard:
    vishcosity,

    Ozone finish is generally held not to be a skill.

    I want a better passing metric. Given the current collection of stats available, this is as close as I can figure to a statistical approach at finding the guy who effectively gets the puck up ice.

  93. dangilitis says:

    Didn’t know about the inability to reacquire. But it sounds like you agree with me. Even if we buy him out, and engage in a bidding war for another 2-3 line center, it will still cost use less than 5.5. million per season.

  94. RickDeckard says:

    vishcosity,

    Zone exits are what you are looking for. Problem is that data is strewn all over then net like Crosby’s teeth.

  95. TheOtherJohn says:

    godot10:
    Some of you guys are still judging Lander, by the Lander that was forced to play between Eager and Petrell.

    Lander has offensive skill to play with good players, but he is NOT a puck transporter.Paajarvi and Yakupov are puck transporters.He will be fine.

    FFS Godot he’s got 20 points in 47 games in the AHL w 6 of those 20 TOTAL in 1 game. He ain’t scoring anywhere. He may develop as a solid defensive NHL centre but has shown nothing offensively in North America

  96. godot10 says:

    You don’t have to compliance buyout Horcoff this summer. You save the compliance buyout for the following year for Horcoff if you need it on the last year of his contract.

    If Smyth retires, his cap hit remains. So he better not retire. The OIlers need him to fulfill the contract as a depth forward.

    If Philly compliance buyouts Briere, he is an option for a cheap Nugent-Hopkins replacement to start the season next year. He probably would be amenable to an affordable one year deal, given that he would be able to play between two elite wingers, and rehabilitate his value proposition as a player.

  97. godot10 says:

    TheOtherJohn: FFS Godot he’s got 20 points in 47 games in the AHL w 6 of those 20 TOTAL in 1 game. He ain’t scoring anywhere. He may develop as a solid defensive NHL centre but has shown nothing offensively in North America

    He has spent almost all of his time in North America between Eager and Petrell, and with a stone cold Pitlick.

    Look at the games he has played with Paajarvi and/or Hartikainen and/or Rajala.

  98. BG14 says:

    dangilitis,

    Oh I see your point on why Lucic would cause cap troubles. All I was referring to was you listing future estimated salaries (RNH@6) and then asking how we can fit that under a 64 million dollar cap. I’d look at your second scenario, but if you manage a trade around Gagner for Lucic (other parts as needed, but that would be the salary moving), that adds 1.5 million (62.5 total), then your sandpaper winger for the 3line becomes a decent C for the 2line (don’t need a world beater, just a responsible guy that can keep up. Maybe allocate an extra million (so 3.5 total) for him, that brings you to 63.5, still a million under the cap for any additional costs of the two dmen, or either of the 2/3C’s.

    I’m not entirely for acquiring Lucic, just want to make the point that he’s a very good player, and we need more of those. It’s not impossible to fit under the cap, not to mention that, as far as I understand it, the new CBA does NOT require ELC to count against the cap at full bonus levels, so the hits for RNH, Yak and Schultz are all 925k. They’ll hit some bonuses, but it seems unlikely they’d ever reach the total 3.775, I think you’d be looking more along the lines of 3ish average (as a conservative estimate). Going forward, it’s up in the air. Cap will rise, you can move players out, I’d look at spending less on goaltending etc…

    Anyways, just my 2 cents (or 0 cents nowadays) on the whole Lucic situation.

    PS, love the idea of signing Jagr for a year. Wouldn’t mind seeing him and Paajarvi flanking Horcoff (or similar) on the 3line.

  99. Truth says:

    I cannot believe how unbelievably stupid the Oilers organization is. I wrote on this site in February about the Nuge’s obvious need for surgery.

    “TRUTH says:
    February 8, 2013 at 1:25 pm
    What’s the line set at for games played until they shut down Nuge for surgery? I’m guessing it’s the 30 game mark. If the Oilers look like they have a legitimate shot to make a run he stays to the end, if not they put him under the knife in order to mitigate time lost next season.
    No coincidence he took the extended break before the WJC and the required break last game, especially with the commentary from both OKC and Oiler teammates regarding Nuge’s shoulder issues. Oiler fans have seen this story too many times to believe he will just get better by rest.
    Hall played with the bummed shoulder for years after injuring it in Junior, no excuse to make that mistake with Nuge.”

    Nobody placed any wagers, but the over won by a heavy margin. Truly unbelievable. I am on Souray’s side now, which I wouldn’t have ever contemplated before.

  100. flyfish1168 says:

    To be fair to management, we were fighting for a playoff spot and tamby was probably thinking we are stronger with RNH and we were briefly a playoff team. I’m confident to say that if RNH was to stay here for surgery he would get just as good a job on his shoulder. Unfortunately he would be jumping the cue. We don’t want to look like the phlegms, cueing even for a flu shot. I would think that in Cleveland there was probably only a 1-2 week wait time only so this appointment was probably made when the Oilers felt they couldn’t make the playoffs.

  101. Truth says:

    If it was clear that he needed surgery to fix the issue why wouldn’t it be done immediately? The issue was there prior to the WJC. Prior to 2013 NHL season even existing. That would be the time to have surgery, or make the appointment for surgery. I could see holding off on surgery if he was injured while the Oilers were making a run for the playoffs or within the middle of the regular season, but knowing about the issues prior to there even being an NHL season and letting him play at sub-par performance all year just to shut him down and hurt the Oilers chances for the next season as well is just plain idiotic. Feaster is starting to look like a rocket scientist in comparison. I hope this was Tambellini’s decision, in itself it is grounds for immediate dismissal.

  102. Truth says:

    And for the record, I much rather would have seen RNH miss the entire (shortened) 2013 season and be at 100% for next season than to see the Oilers get swept in the first round with RNH at 70%. Anyone who thinks the Oilers had a shot past the first round this year is delusional.

  103. striatic says:

    i’m pretty sure Hall could have come back earlier, and that the lockout and AHL transition added time to his return beyond just being sure he was ready to go.

    so i don’t think we can assume he’ll be out as long as Hall.

    it is conceivable he’s back more quickly.

  104. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    And having conversation with does not equal Tambellini making him play the season. We dont know if it was Nuge that wanted to play out this season as this injury happened before the NHL season even started or if it was management pushing him.

  105. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy,

    I don’t know if you can call it stupid.

    I mean, Hall played with a bum shoulder, so did Hemsky. Less effectively, but still capable.

    This was the year the team was officially to challenge for a playoff spot according to Stalowe’s 5-year-plan, and I’m pretty sure Taylor Hall would like to make the playoffs at some point in his Oiler career, so it was at least understandable.

    Nuge was effective, though his shot was clearly way off and his passing not as crisp as it was last year. Ideally he’d have been operated on at the same time as Hall, but I believe the consensus is that the injury was aggravated at the world juniors (correct me if I’m wrong) and based on last year’s results clearly wasn’t as bad as it is now.

  106. Lowetide says:

    I think dumping on the Oilers for the Nuge situation is fair based on their own past in the injury/surgery department. However, I do think that there must have been a conversation between the team, player, agent and doctors that established

    1. he could not make the injury more severe by playing
    2. that he agreed surgery was the off-season option and that rehab would no longer work

    I also think we’re guessing about surgery, recovery and rehab for next season. It could be like Hall, or it could be longer or shorter.

    There’s enough evidence against the Oilers to bury them on this, when we get into hyperbole we (imo) lose the center of the argument.

  107. fuzzy muppet says:

    Yay Flames! the tumble down the standings continues!

  108. leadfarmer says:

    Calgary up 3-1 vs Minnesota late in the 3rd. That wild team sure got lucky that 1/3 of their games are against oilers, avalanche, and flames, otherwise they would be out of the playoffs.

  109. asiaoil says:

    Lowetide:
    I think dumping on the Oilers for the Nuge situation is fair based on their own past in the injury/surgery department. However, I do think that there must have been a conversation between the team, player, agent and doctors that established

    1. he could not make the injury more severe by playing
    2. that he agreed surgery was the off-season option and that rehab would no longer work

    I also think we’re guessing about surgery, recovery and rehab for next season. It could be like Hall, or it could be longer or shorter.

    There’s enough evidence against the Oilers to bury them on this, when we get into hyperbole we (imo) lose the center of the argument.

    LT – if he loses ANY time next year it’s unbelievably stupid – and if they wanted to make the playoffs – then why fail to replace Horcoff/Belly when that left us with only Gagner and RNH with a bum wing.

    You either make a legitimate attempt to compete this year (which meant getting a center in February) or you shut RNH down early to protect next year. These fools unbelievably did neither………..unreal.

  110. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide,

    Don’t get me wrong, my contempt for Lowe as a man in charge of the Oilers runs deep and I think the Oilers are ultimately at fault for the Souray situation, as well as Hemsky’s early decline and so on. It’s just that in this case, I can see it being a reasonable decision. I’d personally have pulled Nuge at some point before the 5-game win streak, but then again, I wasn’t Dithers and my million dollar a year job as sock puppet wasn’t on the line.

  111. BlacqueJacque says:

    asiaoil,

    Tambellini being an idiot not able to recognize that replacing Belanger and Horcoff are vital needs is one thing. Pulling Nuge early for the season is another.

  112. BlacqueJacque says:

    After recalling not one, not two, not three, but *seven* AHLers, the Flames are beating the Minnesota Wild 3-1. They’re about to bump us to 13th in the West.

    Seriously, fuck Kevin Lowe.

  113. Lowetide says:

    HALL!

  114. tcho says:

    If only we’d picked Seguin… :-)

  115. fuzzy muppet says:

    Well, taylor hall is still ok

  116. Lowetide says:

    asiaoil: LT – if he loses ANY time next year it’s unbelievably stupid – and if they wanted to make the playoffs – then why fail to replace Horcoff/Belly when that left us with only Gagner and RNH with a bum wing.

    You either make a legitimate attempt to compete this year (which meant getting a center in February) or you shut RNH down early to protect next year. These fools unbelievably did neither………..unreal.

    I think he’ll lose time next year, and he should have had the surgery imo as soon as that losing streak took (the road trip). And I do agree not finding help at C when 10/muffin went down was craziness, and I’ll even agree that MacT should have announced it at his press conference.

    However, I don’t think we can be critical of the team wanting to keep Nuge in an effort to make the playoffs.

  117. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers prefer playing without pressure, don’t they?

  118. godot10 says:

    The Anaheim game was two weeks ago tomorrow. They probably began making plans with the Cleveland Clinic then.

    So he will probably have surgery about two weeks after they picked up the phone. I don’t think they were delaying once they were out. The best surgeons have waiting lists too.

  119. delooper says:

    Yakupov is looking good tonight.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Lander is making a lot of nice little plays now, he seems more settled than in the past.

  121. delooper says:

    godot10:
    The Anaheim game was two weeks ago tomorrow.They probably began making plans with the Cleveland Clinic then.

    So he will probably have surgery about two weeks after they picked up the phone. I don’t think they were delaying once they were out. The best surgeons have waiting lists too.

    Ding ding ding, we have a winner!

    Not just waiting lists but it takes time to determine a course of action. Doctors aren’t Roombas, at least not yet.

  122. Captain Happy says:

    hunter1909:
    Oilers prefer playing without pressure, don’t they?

    The Dead Cat Bounce.

    Happens every season.

    See Flames, Calgary for reference.

  123. BlacqueJacque says:

    It’s nice when the Oilers show up for the first 20 minutes.

    I can go to bed early and comfortably know that I don’t have to stay up to see which period they decide to wake up for.

  124. fuzzy muppet says:

    Typical…they never make things easy

  125. BlacqueJacque says:

    Man, we’re going to finish behind the Fucking Flames this year.

    I am seriously considering becoming a full-time Rush fan.

  126. Lucinius says:

    delooper: Ding ding ding, we have a winner!

    Not just waiting lists but it takes time to determine a course of action.Doctors aren’t Roombas, at least not yet.

    Issue isn’t the delay in getting surgery, honestly. Issue is him playing with the shit shoulder in the first place. Honestly, the moment you find out you need surgery on something you should get it done. If he has been in need of the surgery for months it should have been months ago; playoff push be damned. You take care of your players, especially your high end players, regardless.

    And boom, tied game on shit call. Oilers didn’t put enough effort into the face off scramble there, figuring they were safe with so little time left in the period.

  127. rich says:

    On 3 different occasions, Anaheim had Perry/Getzlaff and Ryan out against our 4th line – including right at the end when Brown took the high sticking.

    Maybe next year RK will do a better job matching lines instead of doing the Alberta Waltz with the forwards.

  128. delooper says:

    Lucinius: Issue isn’t the delay in getting surgery, honestly. Issue is him playing with the shit shoulder in the first place. Honestly, the moment you find out you need surgery on something you should get it done. If he has been in need of the surgery for months it should have been months ago; playoff push be damned. You take care of your players, especially your high end players, regardless.

    I don’t think many people in hockey believe that. The Czechs wouldn’t have won the Olympic gold if they took Hasek out for a concussion. The Oilers might not have won most of their Stanley cups with that mindset. There’s a certain amount of tolerance of injuries that people have in competitive sports. You’re making it seem very one-sided, but that’s only an “in hindsight” perspective. Earlier people were saying the Oilers weren’t doing enough to make the playoffs, now you’re saying they were doing too much. These kinds of criticism just come across as angry people venting, rather than thinking seriously about what’s going on.

  129. MrSmitty says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Rest easy, the flames will be without a franchise player for the next couple years. :)
    Short term pain for long term gain. When we get either Barkov or Nischinkin you will feel better.

  130. jake70 says:

    Poor ladies yelling to Hall they love him and he doesn’t even look….lol.

  131. striatic says:

    jake70:
    Poor ladies yelling to Hall they love him and he doesn’t even look….lol.

    Taylor Hall lives in a world far, far more surreal than most people’s.

  132. Lucinius says:

    delooper,

    If this had been a year in which the Oilers were in a strong place to make the playoffs I’d agree with the whole ‘playing hurt’ thing. Its not playing hurt, in and of itself, I have issue with. Its playing hurt — when you need surgery and not just time off — in a season when the Oilers were a long shot to make the playoffs to begin with.

    Especially when the shoulder needed surgery even before the season began! In a lockout year! You put his ass into surgery the moment the lockout hits or looks likely, imo. Makes things much simpler, doesn’t it? At worst he’s well into recuperating by the time the NHL actually starts going (maybe as much as 4-5 months into it!).

  133. tcho says:

    91′s stick spontaneously shatters?

  134. Lowetide says:

    Fistric on the ice with Hall is like Doug Flynn in the same lineup with Tim Raines.

  135. crude says:

    Sounds like there are a couple Oiler fans in the building tonight…

  136. Woodguy says:

    The Oilers did nothing wrong with RNH’s surgery timeline.

    We are at war with Oceania

    We have always been at war with Oceania

    Missing the playoffs for 7 years straight is the sign of competent management.

  137. sliderule says:

    The oilers could have shut Nuge down and picked up Jokinen.

    The same Jokinen who has been first or second star for Pens in a bunch of games

    The Jokinen who could be a center for us next year to bridge until Nuge recovers.

    No if we did that we couldn’t trade for Weber and Lucic and the other pie in the sky things they may be thinking of

  138. jake70 says:

    Lowetide:
    Fistric on the ice with Hall is like Doug Flynn in the same lineup with Tim Raines.

    I’ll call your Flynn, and raise you Angel Salazar. ;-)

  139. Lucinius says:

    Absolutely hilarious there.

    Jones is the late guy coming back defensively on that rush against. What does he do?

    1) Does he skate quickly to catch up and help defensively against the puck carrier?

    2) Does he angle himself to take away any kind of pass?

    3) Does he stop skating at our blue line and look around like he’s wondering if he really has to be the guy coming back defensively, instead of at least following the play with his eyes?

    It is, of course, number three.

  140. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    The Oilers did nothing wrong with RNH’s surgery timeline.

    We are at war with Oceania

    We have always been at war with Oceania

    Missing the playoffs for 7 years straight is the sign of competent management.

    I’m not saying that. I’m saying that I understand why they wanted to keep him on the roster when there was a chance to make the playoffs assuming that he couldn’t make the injury worse. I don’t think that is an extreme position.

  141. rich says:

    This is one area that Calgary can really learn something from the OIlers. If you’re going to come out and play really bad hockey, this second period is text book brutal.

  142. jake70 says:

    Woodguy:
    The Oilers did nothing wrong with RNH’s surgery timeline.

    We are at war with Oceania

    We have always been at war with Oceania

    Missing the playoffs for 7 years straight is the sign of competent management.

    Let’s all do the 2 minute hate…lol….down with Tambelowestein, down with Tambelowestein!

  143. asiaoil says:

    Lowetide: I think he’ll lose time next year, and he should have had the surgery imo as soon as that losing streak took (the road trip). And I do agree not finding help at C when 10/muffin went down was craziness, and I’ll even agree that MacT should have announced it at his press conference.

    However, I don’t think we can be critical of the team wanting to keep Nuge in an effort to make the playoffs.

    Agree but you have to do one thing (replace injured players to try make the playoffs this season) or the other thing (shut down RNH to improve your odds next season). We did NEITHER which is utter madness – like running around the room with your underwear on your head shouting at demons nuts.

  144. striatic says:

    Fall-off for Barkov?

  145. OilLeak says:

    Lucinius:
    Absolutely hilarious there.

    Jones is the late guy coming back defensively on that rush against. What does he do?

    1) Does he skate quickly to catch up and help defensively against the puck carrier?

    2) Does he angle himself to take away any kind of pass?

    3) Does he stop skating at our blue line and look around like he’s wondering if he really has to be the guy coming back defensively, instead of at least following the play with his eyes?

    It is, of course, number three.

    That’s the Jones patented special, that and hovering at the blue line looking for an offensive rush while the puck is still pinned in the Oilers zone.

  146. tcho says:

    Man… first period was pretty good, but out-shot 17-7 in the second. Come on, Oil! Let’s go in the third.

  147. sliderule says:

    I have been hammering RK since the first of March.

    Maybe it’s not him maybe it’s the weak assistants they have handed him.

    Check out the goal at end of first period.

    Horc wins the draw Petyry makes a weak box out and they score.

    Their defensive coverage and system is shit.

    Their offensive foe checking is aggressive and while complex I like it and I assume it’s RK.

    If the defensive coverage isn’t Smiths then they need a lot of change.

  148. Lowetide says:

    asiaoil: Agree but you have to do one thing (replace injured players to try make the playoffs this season) or the other thing (shut down RNH to improve your odds next season). We did NEITHER which is utter madness – like running around the room with your underwear on your head shouting at demons nuts.

    Oh yeah, absolutely. I wrote about it at the time

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/02/knuckle-puck.html

  149. tcho says:

    Some great pressure on the PP tonight.

  150. rich says:

    To quote that fine sportsman Don Meredith…”Turn out the lights, the partys’ over…”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A23snMkbZ1I

    Oh, and thank you Kevin Lowe. Those 6 Stanley Cups you won as a player really were put to good use this evening.

  151. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I’m not saying that. I’m saying that I understand why they wanted to keep him on the roster when there was a chance to make the playoffs assuming that he couldn’t make the injury worse. I don’t think that is an extreme position.

    I wasn’t grinding on you.

    You posted that it was fair to question the Oilers on this.

    There is a segment of you posters who immediatley defend management etc. and i find it hilarious, especially after the dramedy of the last 2 weeks.

  152. striatic says:

    That post has been the Oilers’ best player tonight.

  153. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I wasn’t grinding on you.

    You posted that it was fair to question the Oilers on this.

    There is a segment of you posters who immediatley defend management etc. and i find it hilarious, especially after the dramedy of the last 2 weeks.

    Oh. Well, hammer away! :-)

  154. Woodguy says:

    jake70: Let’s all do the 2 minute hate…lol….down with Tambelowestein, down with Tambelowestein!

    awesome

  155. Captain Happy says:

    Lowetide: Oh. Well, hammer away!

    Any reasonable individual would have assumed about 10 games ago that the Oilers would miss the playoffs.

    When your chances are 1 in 20, you should play the odds and refocus.

  156. fifthcartel says:

    Good night for the draft position.

  157. Lowetide says:

    CH: Yeah, agreed. When they went out on the road trip and won the first game, you could justify. But then they lost both in California and then the next one. That’s when you pull the cord, somewhere in there.

  158. Captain Happy says:

    It’s time we all get on the Blue Jackets Express.

    What an incredible performance.

    Wow.

  159. HiddenDarts says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Man, we’re going to finish behind the Fucking Flames this year.

    I am seriously considering becoming a full-time Rush fan.

    This is funny for more reasons than I can count…

  160. asiaoil says:

    Lowetide:
    CH: Yeah, agreed. When they went out on the road trip and won the first game, you could justify. But then they lost both in California and then the next one. That’s when you pull the cord, somewhere in there.

    ……and you have a surgery date for the day after the the Cali games organized weeks before (which you can cancel if a miracle happens and they are still in contention). The idea that you don’t bother to pick up the phone until after the LA shellacking is ridiculous. But in any case – they were out of the playoffs by the time the got walloped in Nashville on the crazy road trip – if not a week before that when they screwed up the homestand leading up to that trip.

    No if the guy needed the surgery and they knew it last summer – then you do it ASAP so he can get back to 100% ASAP. Playing at 50% in the AHL and WJC was beyond pointless. All this tells me is that the last 10 months of aimless dithering was the best effort these chumps have got to offer. Now next season is already in jeopardy even before this debacle of a season is over.

    We are training the Flames after they traded their best forward, best dman(?), and are playing their backup most nights. Fail does not even begin to describe this. Firing Tambo was like flushing toilet and having it plug halfway down – time for Katz to call Roto-Rooter and finish the job – Lowe, MacT (would any other team hire him as GM?), Howson, Smith, Bucky, pro-scouting all circling the bowl. For god sakes put these clowns out of their (and our) misery.

  161. vishcosity says:

    Maybe Hopkins’ didn’t want to go for surgery. Maybe he really wanted to try rehab instead, and after the Souray fiasco, maybe the brass really wanted to do their best to listen to the player.

    Then Horc went down for what seemed 3 or 4 games. Can’t really sideline Hopkins with playoffs still in sight. Horc, initially out for a few days, iirc, had a relapse. Do you trade picks for Smithson now? Put a couple prospects together for Derek Roy? Wasn’t clear to me at least.

    A couple defenseman who are able to get the puck out of the zone by hitting the forwards in stride, to me, seems far more significant than anything to do with a 19 year old or a 4th line centre. And who knows what the schedule is in Cleveland? Ten days one way or the other a season does not break.

    Until we know for sure what Hopkins wanted, its pretty hard for me to say anything of significance on the subject.

    I just can’t cheer for the losing anymore. One more pick probably isn’t going to vault this team over the top. I hope in a year’s time they’ve got strength down the middle and depth on the back end.

  162. Clay says:

    It was at this time last year that I was lamenting the fact that the Oilers were going to miss out on MacKinnon because they were going to finally be too good to draft that high. Now there’s a very real chance that they’ll have a shot at him…

    It’s really too bad the Oilers won’t have a shot at Aaron Ekblad next year. He’s just the kind of cornerstone dman you could really build a team around.

  163. HBomb says:

    russ99:
    dangilitis,

    Horcoff needs to be bought out just as much for what he doesn’t bring to the room as what he doesn’t bring to the ice.

    When was the last time we had a good captain, Gator??

    So tell me – you have access to the room to know that Horcoff doesn’t bring something? Or is this just another member of the “because Horcoff is overpaid, we can boo him during player intros and blame everything on him” club?

    Check the comments from the likes of Eberle and Hall in the past – Horcoff’s leadership isn’t the reason this team is lousy. Not enough good players is the problem. Frankly, even though he is overpaid (and no one is denying that), Horcoff is the only guy on the roster who would actually play in the bottom six on any sort of decent hockey team. Smyth is broken down. Belanger, Jones, Smithson, Brown? No chance.

    Funny you’d mention Gator as the “last good Oiler captain” – he was also the captain the last time the team was properly constructed. Correlation doesn’t equal causation, and the guy wearing the C can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

    If I’m coming off as harsh, hearing #10 get booed during the intros tonight (again – this has happened before) pissed me off. Between that, some jackass yelling at Hall for being lazy, and another guy calling Dubnyk a “mediocre backup at best” in the LRT? I wonder sometimes if Oilers fans have gotten exactly what they deserve the last seven seasons.

  164. Woodguy says:

    vishcosityMaybe Hopkins’ didn’t want to go for surgery. Maybe he really wanted to try rehab instead, and after the Souray fiasco, maybe the brass really wanted to do their best to listen to the player.

    From the Oiler’s twitter account:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 21m
    “We discussed it a little bit during the year. It’s something that doesn’t fix itself. It has to be taken care of.” – RNH
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 21m
    RNH says his expected shoulder procedure is very close to, if not the same, as Taylor Hall’s surgery
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 19m
    “The plan was to get (the surgery) done before the season ends so I’m recovered and good to go before next season.” – RNH

    Its a torn labrum.

    They don’t heal themselves.

  165. dangilitis says:

    First, to clarify, I never said I didn’t like Horcoff (so I do not get clumped with russ99 on this one), I just said no GM in his right mind can continue to pay a 3rd line center 5.5 million per season, even if he is good in the locker room or a good mentor. This is a business, not a frat, and as Luongo says about his contract, so too does Horcoff’s contract suck. It is not his fault as many have pointed out, but it does not mean we should keep it.

    Also, I will point out something about shoulders both from someone who has had a torn labrum and someone who as worked with orthopedic surgeons in the past. There was nothing wrong with allowing Nuge to play with a torn labrum, within reason (I don’t know all the details in his case). I played rugby with a torn labrum, which means my shoulder was prone to subluxation and dislocation. When it happened, I popped it back in and took some advil, and kept on playing. Labrum is just one aspect of the joint that stabilizes it, but the rotator cuff muscles are also as important in keeping it stable, and are important to keep strong both before and after surgery to keep it in place. This is likely what Nuge has been working on throughout the year. I waited 10 years before I had my surgery, when it had gotten to the point that I accidentally dislocated it after sneezing while driving (had to pull into Mac’s parking lot with one handed turn and use the weight of my bike which was conveniently in the car to get it back in). Obviously by that point I had not been in an competitive sport, but my surgeon told me that each subsequent dislocation may have torn the labrum a bit further, but ultimately did not change the intended surgery and anticipated length of recovery. He actually told me after that my tear was one of the worst he’s seen, and he operates on professional players including several Oilers in the past (including Lubo, who had the same surgery as me and seems to have recovered quite well…). So just goes to show you, a hit in the NHL may not be as bad as a hit on the rugby field in high school competition…

    Any ways, as I digress, I have made a full recovery, as do most. There are cases where the labrum tears again, or the shoulder remains unstable, but this is usually related to inadequate rehab in unmotivated individuals, not in NHL players who have their careers riding on a full recovery. As the article states, 6 month recovery is expected, mostly in the sense that by this point mobility has improved, strength is back, and it is presumed safe to compete in full contact. Within 4-6 wks after surgery, you’re usually out of the sling and can start rehab.

    Why Oilers fans worry is because they hear shoulder problem and instinctively think Hemsky. Hemsky actually never tore the labrum. He separated his AC joint (acromioclavicular joint), which is a common hockey injury usually resulting from hits from the side (likely from one of many times he has been hit hard against the boards with no retalliation from his teammates). The AC joint is a bitch to heal because there’s not much the surgeons can do to help, and its a little joint that distributes a lot of weight – it is the joint between the scapula and clavicle, so along with the sternoclavicular joint, these 2 little joints take the load of the entire arm as it attaches to the axial skeleton.

    Bottom line, AC joint problems can cause chronic pain and are prone to re-injury.
    Labral tears, when rehabbed correctly, are not, even in professional players. Ironically, common time for labral tears is in late adolescence. So, not surprising that the kids have suffered through them, and not necessarily a product of “being thrown into the NHL too early” – that is why I continue to laugh when intellectually deficient Canuck fans bring this point up…

    So don’t worry Oilers fans, Nuge will be alright. Labral tears are one of the best of all of the shoulder problems that the surgeons operate on. I believe Hall had the same issue, correct me if I am wrong. He turned out alright this year, no? In fact, if he did have a labral tear, it would further disprove the naysayers who proclaim these guys should have been eased in slower, as I remember him saying his shoulder problems began in OHL.

    Klefbom, unfortunately, I heard, had other issues with shoulder.

  166. BlacqueJacque says:

    Heh, this team is so bad and so predictably bad, that once I saw they’d played their 20 minutes for the night in the first, I turned in. And I was right.

  167. BlacqueJacque says:

    Ladies and gentlemen, 29th overall is within reaching distance now.

    Tampa has to get 4 points, Carolina 2, Nashville 2. And we just have to continue playing the way we’ve been playing.

    Please, rise up out of your chairs and give a hand to Kevin Lowe & Co., for bringing you this team.

  168. HBomb says:

    Dangilitis:

    No confusion intended – my bad with misusing the quotation function.

    I don’t think there’s a reasonable fan who wouldn’t keep Horcoff around if he was making Belanger’s salary. Furthermore, the logical argument of needing to CBO him at some point to use the money elsewhere is something I can totally understand – once they need the money AND have a suitable replacement as 3C in place, of course.

    The “poor leader” or “useless hockey player” position though? That is a misinformed viewpoint, IMO.

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