FEELS LIKE HOME

The 2011 entry draft was a “good news, good news” draft that allowed the Oilers to take the BPA and address need on the blue. Two years in, are we still happy with the 2011 entry draft?

BOB MCKENZIE’S LIST

  • #1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  • #21: Oscar Klefbom
  • #41: David Musil
  • #51: Samu Perhonen
  • Honorable Mention: Travis Ewanyk
  • Honorable Mention: Dillon Simpson

COMBINE LIST

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  • Oscar Klefbom
  • David Musil
  • Samu Perhonen
  • Travis Ewanyk
  • Tobias Rieder

OILERS DRAFT LIST

  • #1 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  • #19 Oscar Klefbom
  • #31 David Musil
  • #62 Samu Perhonen
  • #74 Travis Ewanyk
  • #92 Dillon Simpson
  • #114 Tobias Rieder
  • #122 Martin Gernat
  • #182 Frans Tuohimaa

I believe the Oilers “picks in play” are #1, #19, #31, #62, #74 and #92. One guy should be an impact player for more than a decade, and after that the club should expect a legit career of 400+ games from Klefbom and another fellow to pass 200 NHL games during his career. Three useful players. Nuge, Klefbom, and? Not a clue. That’s why we watch the games. I will guess below.

nuge1

12-13 NHLE’s (Nuge’s numbers are his Oiler totals extrapolated over 82gp)

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7-42-49
  2. Tobias Rieder 13-13-26
  3. Dillon Simpson 4-15-19
  4. Oscar Klefbom 0-17-17
  5. Martin Gernat 3-11-14
  6. David Musil 4-8-12
  7. Travis Ewanyk 3-7-10
  • The Impact Man: Even in a season when he’s playing hurt, you can see the exceptional skill at both ends of the ice. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is vital to the Oilers because he’s a center, highly skilled, and has a terrific defensive side. I believe he’ll be a complete player soon, one of those franchise guys who helps in every zone. A wonderful addition to the supremely talented Oilers of the ’10s.
  • 2-way winger: Rieder had a down arrow season and then got himself traded to the Coyotes. I think he’s got a very good chance to become an NHL player down the line, and hope everyone remembers MBS and his group drafted him. Rieder’s range of skills make him a good candidate to become that ‘Pisani winger’ the Oilers are always looking for every summer.
  • Fighting Sioux: Dillon Simpson represents exceptional value at the point he was taken in the draft. Plucked at about the same spot as Erik Gustafsson in 2012, Simpson has completed three NCAA season at age 20. He’s increased his offensive output, his playing time and importance on the depth chart with each season, and I expect he’ll be a huge signing next spring.
  • Shutdown Blue: A quality defender in the SEL as a teenager, Klefbom’s range of ability is impressive and his strength is a perfect match for the porous Oilers. I’m not sure when he’ll arrive–defenders take awhile and 2014-15 seems reasonable–and he has some injury issues. Those items aside, he’s a terrific prospect.
  • Chaos Incorporated: Martin Gernat is either a 15-year NHL player or a mirage, there’s no in-between. He’s big, strong, a little mean, has plus speed, skill and a terrific shot–he’s a can’t miss prospect the Oilers refuse to sign. Lordy.
  • Stay-at-home: The problem with David Musil types is that there’s no real way to know if they’re Chris Hajt or Cory Cross. It’s tough to spend a second round pick on someone like Musil, but he’s probably going to deliver 200+ NHL games based on how well he plays the defensive game. The guys who get to 1,000 games from his player-type are the ones who can  keep up with the play. We wait.
  • Energy: Back in the olden days, Fred Shero used to have a bunch of “energy” forwards. The most famous was Bob Kelly, who used to step on the ice to thunderous applause. Kelly would proceed to run everything that moved (all of his hits were charging penalties under today’s rules) and create “energy” for the next shift. It was kind of a “kill zone” for the Flyers, a “Running Man” short designed to damage the opposition. That’s Ewanyk.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

katrina

The Oilers under MacGregor are basically running four different races:

  1. The #1 overalls. MBS is completely risk averse here, Nuge appears to be a terrific choice at #1 overall two seasons after the selection. Although his offense suffered this season and he did have offensive issues, it’s clear he’s a quality player at 20.
  2. The ranked/combine group. This is the heart of the MBS group-6 players either made the McKenzie list or the combine list or both. Nuge should play for 15 years at a high level, with Klefbom a favorite to have a quality NHL career and several hopefuls beyond that (notably Musil and Simpson).
  3. The walkabout bunch. This is the group that sees Edmonton grab players inside the top 100 who are not ranked in the top 100 and were not included in the combine group. There are none in this category from the 2011 group.
  4. The overage college kids. Again, none from this group in 2011.

As prospects, I ranked them like this and then brackets where they’ll be going on the June list:

  1. Graduated Prospect: Nugent-Hopkins (wonderful career ahead)
  2. #3 prospect: Klefbom (may be #1 in June)
  3. #6 prospect: Gernat (should stay about the same, needs to be signed)
  4. #8 prospect: Musil (moving up)
  5. #10 prospect: Simpson (moving up, could end up in the top 5)
  6. #13 prospect: Rieder (no longer in the organization)
  7. #23 prospect: Tuohimaa (moving up, slightly)
  8. not ranked: Perhonen (swing and a miss, won’t make top 30)
  9. not ranked: Ewanyk (will make top 30)

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85 Responses to "FEELS LIKE HOME"

  1. Bar_Qu says:

    It makes sense to have 1 or 2 guys from each draft pushing to be in the NHL. If we take away the #1 pick and look at the last few drafts, the Oilers likely have that covered. If there were good management, the team would allow the guys to develop to the point where they forced the issue and either got a roster spot by out playing a vet, or got spot duty when injuries arrived (or a trade for value if there was nowhere above them, ie Bishop for Conacher kind of thing).

    I like this draft class. It has the best balance and the most potential. Certainly better than 2010. Hopefully Klefbom can come to OKC next year and force his way into spot duty, so that the bottom half of the D gets a good player for 2014 season.

  2. Hammers says:

    This is McGregors best list and I see 5 players who will play in the NHL for over 200 games . The coming draft may be the toughest for McGregor perhaps 6-9 range and getting it right is so important .

  3. sliderule says:

    If Tampa and Nashville win today we will be tied for sixth.

    That’s Monahan and Barkov territory.

    We most likely will only win two of next seven.Maybe worse.

    Nobody can tank like the oil.

    Go oilers go.

  4. Captain Obvious says:

    This is all a waste of time. In the four years I’ve been following the Oilers they haven’t added a single useful player outside of the first round picks and J. Schultz choosing them.

    While other teams are adding good players all the time through trades, free agency, and waivers, the Oilers haven’t added a single, not one, good player.

    Once you realize this, you realize that the Oilers are never, ever, ever, going to win. It’s impossible. It has been obvious for years that their plan is this:

    1. Draft young star.
    2. Wait for young star to become star.
    3. Win.

    This plan doesn’t work. It will never work. Moreover, it is too late to do change course. The young players are now expensive and any moves they make will involve talent going out. It’s a vicious cycle.

    The sad fact of the matter is that the Oilers may have peaked. I said all of this at the beginning of the season. Eberle has already had his career season. Hall is already one of the best players in the game. Sam Gagner is having his best season. Dubnyk and Khabibulin have been stellar. There is no improvement to be had there.

    So all the hopes rest on improvement from Hopkins, Yakupov, and J. Schultz. These guys will improve but if its accompanied by decline or regression in other parts of the roster it all balances out. Moreover, there is very little talent in the AHL. No real help is coming.

    This team may sneak into the playoffs in the next year or two but it will never be a dominant team because dominant teams have dominant rosters and there is no way to build a dominant roster out of the pieces the Oilers have.

    It is time to face facts. This rebuild has been doomed from the start because management doesn’t understand basic elements of roster construction. Get good players. Keep good players. Get more good players.

  5. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    1. Sign Gernat.
    2. After Klefbom is done “studying 15 and the Oiler system” from the press box, send him to OKC to meet Nelson and plant him there for a year.
    3. Let Simpson continue out of the spotlight and send him the odd care package to remind him we care.

    Oh… and fire everybody.

    The really funny thing about the deadline is that ST made a big deal about sending the right message to the boys in the room by standing pat (excepting Smithson). But, I think we can all safely assume the only people happy about that decision were the individuals in the room on the chopping block.

    Failure to dump dead weight high and acquire picks to deal at the draft should, in itself, be a firing offence.

  6. Ducey says:

    They have 4 yrs to sign the goalies as they are in Europe. You never know, they could turn out. Guessing on goalies is impossible.

  7. ashley says:

    Captain Obvious,

    It is certainly a frustrating time to be an Oiler fan. I find it hard to be patient too. However, this group has really taken a step forward. I think you are too hard on them. They are not far now from a really good roster, and the pieces they need to complete the puzzle aren’t terribly difficult to acquire.

    Expectations should not have been playoffs this year, and they weren’t really at the beginning of the season. We had a tease with the 5 game winning streak, and for a couple of weeks, it was a lot of fun around here. Next year will be a real test as the expectations are going to be playoffs, and I think they’ll be there.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ducey:
    They have 4 yrs to sign the goalies as they are in Europe.You never know, they could turn out.Guessing on goalies is impossible.

    Isn’t that under the new CBA? There is some debate whether that 4 year deal is retroactive, because IIRC the old CBA only allowed a 2 year window for signings.

  9. ashley says:

    LT, how do you assess some of these defensive prospects? I see that you rely on boxcars to give out up or down arrows to prospects in the system, but how do you know what to say about guys like Klefbom and Musil? You think highly of them, I see.

    For example, outside of injury, you see Klefbom as a sure bet to play at a high level in the NHL despite the fact that he will be transitioning to a different style of game and smaller ice. Since the number games played and boxcars are scant, where do you derive your confidence from? Is it draft pedigree/rankings?

    Thanks for any insight.

  10. Lowetide says:

    ashley:
    LT, how do you assess some of these defensive prospects?I see that you rely on boxcars to give out up or down arrows to prospects in the system, but how do you know what to say about guys like Klefbom and Musil?You think highly of them, I see.

    For example, outside of injury, you see Klefbom as a sure bet to play at a high level in the NHL despite the fact that he will be transitioning to a different style of game and smaller ice.Since the number games played and boxcars are scant, where do you derive your confidence from?Is it draft pedigree/rankings?

    Thanks for any insight.

    I look at five things:

    1. Pre-draft scouting reports
    2. How the player is being used from his draft year through today
    3. What coaches/teammates/observers say about his progress
    4. the organization’s verbal
    5. WJ

    A guy like Klefbom–who played with Jonas Brodin in Farjestad–has had off the charts positive verbal from the moment he was drafted. Redline–who hate everybody–gushed about him leading up to the draft.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/11/3-prospect-winter-2012-oscar-klefbom.html

  11. sliderule says:

    Simpson and Musil have cement feet and should have AHL careers much like Plante.
    Their lack of speed was noted on their draft bios so it’s no surprise

    Gernat is a puzzle.
    There is a disconnect between him and oil.Money?

    Ewanyk is a waste of contract.With team flirting with 50 contracts every season signing him was a WTF moment

  12. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Simpson and Musil have cement feet and should have AHL careers much like Plante.
    Their lack of speed was noted on their draft bios so it’s no surprise

    Gernat is a puzzle.
    There is a disconnect between him and oil.Money?

    Ewanyk is a waste of contract.With team flirting with 50 contractsevery season signing him was a WTF moment

    The Gernat item is an absolute mystery. As for Musil/Simpson, I think comparisons to Plante overlook how raw Plante was on draft day. However, both of the kids from this draft do have skating issues and that’s a factor for sure.

  13. Woodguy says:

    I ran fenclose for every team from March 1 to yesterday for gambling purposes.

    I take this info then try to balance it with SV% and SH% to make some future bets.

    Here’s the fenclose list:

    LAK 0.573
    CHI 0.569
    NJD 0.566
    NYR 0.539
    MTL 0.528
    STL 0.527
    BOS 0.525
    SJS 0.525
    NYI 0.522
    FLA 0.522
    VAN 0.522
    CAR 0.520
    DET 0.519
    OTT 0.501
    MIN 0.501
    PHX 0.498
    WIN 0.494
    PIT 0.491
    CBJ 0.489
    ANA 0.474
    CAL 0.473
    NSH 0.471
    WAS 0.467
    COL 0.464
    DAL 0.461
    PHI 0.459
    TOR 0.454
    TBY 0.445
    BUF 0.440
    EDM 0.432

    Interesting that NJD is 3rd on this list and has lost their way out of the playoffs.

    Goaltending is huge, and so is SH%.

    EDM is truly awful.

    I think the theory that they haven’t been able to execute RK’s up ice pressure system holds water.

    The same team as last year and the results are much worse.

    You look at Gagner’s WOWY from last year to this year and he almost has the same line mates in the same slots and the results are down significantly this year.

    Some interesting stuff in that list, so I thought I’d post it.

  14. TheOtherJohn says:

    And it starts.

    The playoffs were not really the goal this year.

    The playoffs are always the goal. This is not junior hockey where you have kids for 4 years and good teams cycle: bad; mediocre; good, load up and compete. The Oilers wanted to be around 20th last year at the beginning of the year. They are spending to 90% of the cap and they gassed Renney late last spring for the teams underperformance.

    ” They are not far now from a really good roster, and the pieces they need to complete the puzzle aren’t terribly difficult to acquire.” Personally I tend to agree with you except this management group, as with everything hockey operations related, is having a monumental time finding useful 6′s & 9′s to use LT’s verbiage. They can’t find them so either they are hard to find (don’t think so) or we have the wrong people looking

    It cannot surprise anyone that I am not a supporter of this management group but the suggestion is we are getting better. And that manifests itself how? By he numbers? Wins? Goals scored? Shot differential? Ability to protect a lead? Or, stealing a line from Don Cherry’s LIST from last night +/- top 9 are Canadians (pause while I laugh hysterically).

    It’s just that we focus on Hall emerging as a true star in this league, in DD becoming a true middle of the pack #1 goalie (soft goals notwithstanding) , MPS developing quite nicely, the young guns all getting older BUT and it’s a pretty big but we are no further ahead this year than last year, and the roster problems remain. While spending near the cap with major cap issues moving forward ie signing Nuge, Yak & JSchultz moving forward

    So to look at the few positives and to say good times are just around the corner is exactly what we said 2 years ago and last year.

    P.S. love Yak!!

  15. eidy says:

    I wonder how Lindy Ruff will look as the new coach

  16. cabbiesmacker says:

    ashley:
    Captain Obvious,

    .However, this group has really taken a step forward.I think you are too hard on them.

    I’d like to know where this myth of steps forward originated Ashley? I hear it a lot these days but….?

    Goals for per game 2011 – 2012 = 2.585

    Goals for per game 2012 – 2013 = 2.512

    ——————————————————————————-

    Goals against per game 2011 – 2012 = 2.914

    Goals against per game 2012 – 2013 = 2.804

    ——————————————————————————

    Winning percentage 2011 – 2012 = .390

    Winning percentage 2012 – 2013 = .390

    —————————————————————————–

    Oh wait…I see what you were talking about now. That significant 0.11 goals against per game. Woohoo. Kind of ironic that the one area this team actually did get better at is the one most often criticized.

    Are there really 7 team worse than this years Edmonton Oilers? I don’t think so. The teams in full freefall mode now though so we should be in a more indicative position within a week.

    The Flames minus Glencross and Tanguay, with their (arguably),back up goaltender, just made this team that should have come out flying in an attempt to preserve their faint hopes of a playoff position, look like an AHL version. They were beaten in every aspect of the game, threw up zero pushback, and had zero answers.

    This is a better team than last year? Not a chance. I feel for the fans, kinda, almost as much as I do for Tom Renney. Actually more so. At least Renney got banished to a place where losing is unacceptable. Oiler fans apparently are willing to shell out good coin and fill an arena to watch a team treading water.

    I would love to hear Taylor Hall come out and state he’s tired of losing because the people running this gong show are inept, and he wants out. That’s about the only way this team will ever flush itself of the crud at the top.

    At least now I can reset my focus on my “other” favorite team. One that actually does know how to draft, win, and has a predictable future. Go Blackhawks. Clap. Clap

  17. Woodguy says:

    For those who don’t know the fenclose numbers above represent the percentages of fenwick events a teams is getting when the score is within 2 goals. Up 2, up 1, tied, down 2 and down 1.

    A fenwick events is a shot attempt that is not blocked.

    So its all non-blocked shot attempts when the score is “close”

    Eric T advised me to get a more complete picture by using SAF (score adjusted Fenwick) than just straight fenclose, but I don’t know how to run the separate up 2, up1, tied, down 1 and down 2 numbers over a selected range of games.

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2012/1/23/2722089/score-adjusted-fenwick

    If anyone knows how to generate those numbers separately, please let me know.

    I’m using Vic’s fenclose tool : http://timeonice.com/mplayershots1213close.php?team=EDM&first=20299&last=21230

  18. pboy says:

    Captain Obvious:
    This is all a waste of time.In the four years I’ve been following the Oilers they haven’t added a single useful player outside of the first round picks and J. Schultz choosing them.

    While other teams are adding good players all the time through trades, free agency, and waivers, the Oilers haven’t added a single, not one, good player.

    Once you realize this, you realize that the Oilers are never, ever, ever, going to win.It’s impossible.It has been obvious for years that their plan is this:

    1. Draft young star.
    2.Wait for young star to become star.
    3. Win.

    This plan doesn’t work.It will never work.Moreover, it is too late to do change course.The young players are now expensive and any moves they make will involve talent going out.It’s a vicious cycle.

    The sad fact of the matter is that the Oilers may have peaked.I said all of this at the beginning of the season.Eberle has already had his career season.Hall is already one of the best players in the game.Sam Gagner is having his best season.Dubnyk and Khabibulin have been stellar.There is no improvement to be had there.

    So all the hopes rest on improvement from Hopkins, Yakupov, and J. Schultz.These guys will improve but if its accompanied by decline or regression in other parts of the roster it all balances out.Moreover, there is very little talent in the AHL.No real help is coming.

    This team may sneak into the playoffs in the next year or two but it will never be a dominant team because dominant teams have dominant rosters and there is no way to build a dominant roster out of the pieces the Oilers have.

    It is time to face facts.This rebuild has been doomed from the start because management doesn’t understand basic elements of roster construction.Get good players.Keep good players.Get more good players.

    Good post. I agree with most everything you wrote. Oiler fans are going to continue walking around in the dark until Mactamblowe are shown the door.

  19. Ducey says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Isn’t that under the new CBA? There is some debate whether that 4 year deal is retroactive, because IIRC the old CBA only allowed a 2 year window for signings.

    Here is what I was relying on:
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/4/13/4219832/oilers-finnish-goalie-prospects-slowly-progressing

  20. oilersfan says:

    Lowetide, are you actually saying that Musil was a good pick? Like Moroz he was a huge reach pick. Ranked 41. Before he went the Oilers could have picked Saad, Rattie or Jenner.

    Terrible pick. Worse than Moroz if you consider what was still available, imo.

    Musil looks similar to Plante and if he makes the NHL seems to be more like Peckham than anything else.

  21. Bushed says:

    On HNC, after that train wreck last night, someone (Healy?) suggested that adding the missing pieces to the Oil shouldn’t be too hard (as Ashley notes above). That seems to beg the question as to why management has done little or nothing in that direction this year, or arguably the previous one as well. Was the real “plan” to string fans along for another year with false hope while really aiming for just one more middling-to-high draft pick? Or is the “plan” to stay shitty until the new arena opens, just to spite Northlands? Maybe the “plan” is to try to revive Mike Milbury’s GM career as a replacement for Dithers (hey, the sad part is that it probably wouldn’t be much worse than what we’ve seen lately).

    I can’t help but think back over the many many years I’ve supported this team. We were so lucky to get a WHA then NHL team and win so soon. Other fans in other cities told us to enjoy it while it lasted, but we thought the run would never end. After all, Sather promised a Cup in 5 years and delivered–how hard could it be to build a great team and keep winning?

    Later we got the big sell-off and the change in ownership. Then we got to see how a winner could be bought, and suffered resentfully as fans of a low-budget team. If only we had a rich owner, we could be winners again. In the meantime, we could cheer our David-vs-Goliath team that battled like hell and occasionally won, because we all knew there would not really be another Cup (but we still hoped against all reason). Then the scare of losing our team reminded us that just having an NHL team, even a losing one, was better than the alternative. We cheered the investor group that saved our team, and we cheered Kevin Lowe for stepping in to help when Sather left for NY.

    The 2006 run convinced us that Lowe really was a good GM, and we were back on track as a team.
    Later, we got the rich owner (and salary cap) that we had pined for (LT, cue “In the Pines” video here for dramatic effect, please) in former days. We also got a boatload of exciting young prospects.

    So now all we need is to “add a few pieces”. Sounds easy–if only we had a real NHL manager to build us a balanced and deep NHL team.

    The ironies (and frustrations) are killing me as a fan. The Cup seems more distant than it was during the lean years.

    Here’s hoping (against reason?) for meaningful changes this summer.

    This emotional investment thing really sucks sometimes….

  22. Hammers says:

    pboy,

    You really need to blame the 1 man in control . KATZ . The mgm group are his choices.

  23. Rondo says:

    Fans are now hoping Oilers lose so they will get a higher draft picks (again)

    Kevin, Steve you must be so proud.

  24. asiaoil says:

    The lack of signings to fill holes in the summer, bringing back all-stars like Hordichuk and Petrell, failing to get a center when Horcoff and Beli were hurt, doing nothing at the trade deadline, and finally playing Khabi last night when DD only played once in the last 5 nights. Watching a team do everything possible to NOT WIN has gotten old and no real fan should be excited in any way about high high we draft. There were no reasons to tank again this season – none – it’s an embarrassment to the team’s history and fans. The only thing this organization is teaching the kids is how to be losers – and they appear to be learning their lesson very after watching last night’s absolute embarrassment.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ducey: Here is what I was relying on:
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/4/13/4219832/oilers-finnish-goalie-prospects-slowly-progressing

    It seems unlikely that the Oilers would sign Perhonen at this point. The new NHL CBA allows clubs to hold on to rights of European-based prospects for up to four years, so he still has time to re-establish himself, however. The youngster has tons of raw potential, but his inability to produce any results in a semi-pro league like Mestis makes him a non-prospect at this point.

    This statement seems to take for granted that the new CBA is retroactive. I only ask because I recall a few of the CBA wizards around here expressing some misgivings over whether this is in fact the case. I simply can’t recall if the issue was ever resolved.

    A secondary issue would be whether we trust Olczyk and Co. to know the answer.

  26. commonfan14 says:

    Not sure I understand the worry that Hall is about to demand a trade.

    When a team’s best player has zero points during a 5-game skid that killed its season, he’s not in a position to point fingers at anyone.

  27. VanOil says:

    While the anger at management is palpable and understandable after another losing season it should not distract us from what a good prospect list this is.

    We have some of the best young offensive dynamos in the NHL. We only have 3 passable NHL defensemen. Schultz Sr can just about make it as a bottom pairing guy and Potter as a #7.

    The good news is help is on the way. Kelfbom barring further injury and developmental missteps should up that total to 4 NHL defensemen by 2014. Out of Maricin, Germat, Simpson and Musil one or two more NHL defencemen could emerge by 2016. Fedum could easily become a OK Potter like #7 in a years time.

    The challenge seems to be bridging the gap on defense for the next 2 to 3 years. This should not be an insurmountable task. It might be painful, the growing pains of defensemen normally are but the future is reasonably bright. The depth at center and goal in the NHL and in the system seem to be the top priorities of the off season and the 2013 draft.

  28. Lowetide says:

    I think Musil is tracking very well based on what we read. He is not an offensive player, and he’ll have to play big EV and PK minutes in the NHL to cover that bet, but he’s a very good junior defenseman and that’s the only league they’ll let him play in.

    Next year, he’ll tackle pro but I don’t see any evidence to suggest we should be disappointed with Musil as a player.

  29. RMGS says:

    Woodguy,

    For what it’s worth, this is Eric T’s formula for SAF:

    Score-Adjusted Fenwick = [3.75 * (Fen_up_2 - 44%) + 8.46 * (Fen_up_1 - 46.1%) + 17.94 * (Fen_tied - 50%) + 8.46 * (Fen_down_1 - 53.9%) + 3.75 * (Fen_down_2 - 56%)] / 42.36 + 50%

    Plugging in Behind the Net’s Fenwick Close numbers will generate the desired results:

    http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2012.php?sort=6&section=close

  30. Dipstick says:

    I’ll argue that the part of the rebuild that has been completed, is actually the easy part. Tanking and selecting first to acquire elite talent takes less smarts than making the necessary decisions and moves to fill the other very crucial parts. It is blatantly obvious that what the presently completed part of the team is not nearly at the level necessary to compete, let alone contend. By now, a lot of those pieces should have been put in place. I have grave doubts that this management team has what it takes to get the job done. How long before Hall, etc. start looking elsewhere longingly?

  31. Gret99zky says:

    ashley:
    Captain Obvious,

    It is certainly a frustrating time to be an Oiler fan.I find it hard to be patient too.However, this group has really taken a step forward.I think you are too hard on them.They are not far now from a really good roster, and the pieces they need to complete the puzzle aren’t terribly difficult to acquire.

    Expectations should not have been playoffs this year, and they weren’t really at the beginning of the season.We had a tease with the 5 game winning streak, and for a couple of weeks, it was a lot of fun around here.Next year will be a real test as the expectations are going to be playoffs, and I think they’ll be there.

    Sorry, Ashley, I have to disagree with you here.

    How is this team better than it was last year?

    What do you mean this team is “not far away” from being a good team?

    How is this management team going to acquire the easy pieces?

    If next year the expectations are the playoffs and YOU believe they will be there, how? By keeping the same roster? By bringing in the “aren’t terribly difficult to acquire” pieces? Who are they?

    I think, perhaps, you are just being overly optimistic and hoping the kids get older, the new draft picks work out, and Lowe and Tambellini magically figure out how to balance a team?

    And for those of you who predicted playoffs this year. We weren’t even close. We were in 8th spot for a couple of days, hell we even led the division for an hour or two, but when all the games are played and everything is said and done and all the players are booed off the ice and this team finishes in the basement AGAIN remember that we were not even close to the playoffs. Not by a mile.

  32. rickithebear says:

    What disturbes me is the quality starts dubnyk gave us (2G in reg) versus results.
    34 GM
    1G or les 9GM 9W
    2 goals 15GM 4W-6L – 5 OTL
    3 goals 6 gm 1W – 5L
    4+ goals 4GM 4L

    24 of 34 were 2 goal games. 71% are should win games.

  33. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    What disturbes me is the quality starts dubnyk gave us (2G in reg) versus results.
    34 GM
    1G or les 9GM 9W
    2 goals 15GM4W-6L – 5 OTL
    3 goals6 gm1W – 5L
    4+ goals 4GM4L

    24 of 34 were 2 goal games. 71% are should win games.

    That’s an excellent point.

  34. cabbiesmacker says:

    Dipstick:
    I’ll argue that the part of the rebuild that has been completed, is actually the easy part.Tanking and selecting first to acquire elite talent takes less smarts than making the necessary decisions and moves to fill the other very crucial parts.It is blatantly obvious that what the presently completed part of the team is not nearly at the level necessary to compete, let alone contend.By now, a lot of those pieces should have been put in place.I have grave doubts that this management team has what it takes to get the job done.How long before Hall, etc. start looking elsewhere longingly?

    Totally agree. The so called “easy” pieces are probably the most difficult to acquire especially when you have a management team and fan base that can’t accept trading quality to get quality.

    The fixes this team requires go a lot deeper than most think they do.

  35. Lowetide says:

    There are useful players every season on waivers. The Oilers management group–headed by Steve Tambellini–SIGNED PETRELL AND HORDICHUK making certain the epic fail 3 and 4 lines would return complete.

    That is absolutely batshit crazy.

  36. delooper says:

    Gret99zky:
    How is this team better than it was last year?

    Hall and the kids have pretty clearly taken a step forward. They acquired J.Schultz without giving up anything, that is a step forward.

    What do you mean this team is “not far away” from being a good team?

    Presumably they don’t have as many major, glaring holes as they had three years ago. It’s kind of a consistent narrative around here.

    How is this management team going to acquire the easy pieces?

    Don’t you read this forum? They’ll trade spare parts for Chara. Er, nobody can predict the future. You haven’t offered up insights of the level you’re requesting, so why are you being this way?

    If next year the expectations are the playoffs and YOU believe they will be there, how?By keeping the same roster?By bringing in the “aren’t terribly difficult to acquire” pieces?Who are they?

    Probably it’ll be a bit of both. But yeah they’ll probably make some moves on the lower-end of the ladder. Some people will graduate from OKC and start being helpful, too.

    I think, perhaps, you are just being overly optimistic and hoping the kids get older, the new draft picks work out, and Lowe and Tambellini magically figure out how to balance a team?

    It’s not like you’re bringing anything to the discussion other than pessimism. People that maintain an even keel around here are deemed pessimists when the season starts and optimists when the season ends.

    And for those of you who predicted playoffs this year.We weren’t even close.We were in 8th spot for a couple of days, hell we even led the division for an hour or two, but when all the games are played and everything is said and done and all the players are booed off the ice and this team finishes in the basement AGAIN remember that we were not even close to the playoffs.Not by a mile.

    You might want to go and check who it was that predicted the playoffs this season, before you start going and tarring Ashley with that label.

  37. DBO says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed. Cherry was Cherry last night, but not much to say against it since we suck I guess. Yes we are smaller. Yes we lack meanness. And most certainly we lack actual NHL players. Ideally we add someone who brings all of these things. Not many available. I know we love our 1st line, but they will score only one way (skill wise. rarely are there dirty goals). When that isn’t running well, we need some other line to step up. Unfortunately the 2nd line who scores the same way was also not gunning. And our 3rd and 4th lines lack needed skills to do anything but dump it in, and hope for the best (see first goal which was as much an accidental pass as a good play).

  38. vishcosity says:

    I can barely pull off a trade in fantasy hockey, I can’t imagine how hard it is to get the better player in an actual NHL trade. By doing nothing I generally think its because Lowe won’t let Tambo sell the future to win now through a bad trade. Clearly someone is preventing the Klefbom and this year’s first for Gaborik because if I was Tambo and trying to keep my job, I probably would have made that deal. Imagine trying to pry OEL or Petrangelo without giving up too much according to these blogs. Probably next to impossible when you consider Maloney is on the other end of the phone.

    Thanks for the math link. I wonder where he got the constants, why he chose to set up that formula as he did. Interesting for sure, though seeing that formula I gotta say I don’t really have any idea what variables are missing from the equation, as in, what could the league offer in terms of new available stats to improve the metric? Not sure exactly on a team level yet. Individual stats may vary.

    Ricki that look at Dubynk is incredible. Always out of the box. Nice one for sure.

  39. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide:
    There are useful players every season on waivers. The Oilers management group–headed by Steve Tambellini–SIGNED PETRELL AND HORDICHUK making certain the epic fail 3 and 4 lines would return complete.

    That is absolutely batshit crazy.

    Care to organize the Kickstarter campaign, perchance?

  40. rich says:

    Lowetide:
    There are useful players every season on waivers. The Oilers management group–headed by Steve Tambellini–SIGNED PETRELL AND HORDICHUK making certain the epic fail 3 and 4 lines would return complete.

    That is absolutely batshit crazy.

    Exactly. Which begs a couple of questions:

    1) Did management (the guys responsible for assembling a competitive roster) really believe these people could actually do what was needed?

    2) Did ownership step in and say that they’re spending enough money on a loser so cut corners?

    Also, I think it’s worth asking this question about the coach. Is he so Macheavellian (sp?) that he see’s the flaws in the roster and is running it the way he is to make a point to management (you guys are clueless), or did he put in a system that he knew would be very difficult to implement with the blessing of management (it’s ok, tank another year – what’s one more year in the re-build).

    Finally, management saying the re-build is officially only 3 year’s old is spin. Stop with the con. The re-build began the day it became public that Chris Pronger wanted out and moving the goalposts is a cop-out. You may have just decided that deliberately tanking was going to be the official start of the second phase of the re-build.

  41. DBO says:

    Rich:
    Biggest issue is they did actually think this team was good enough. i know many are often blind on the quality of our own players, but this management team has failed at both addressing and recognizing NHL talent.

    Based on Cherry and other MSM rumblings and commentary I expect we will lose 2 trades at either the draft or in the off season as well as grossly overpay someone who “fits our needs”. Katz won’t listen to informed fans, but Cherry complaining may bring him from the coast to tell the men to add toughness right now.

    Said it yesterday, but I expect a Hemsky for Stafford trade, as well as an overpay on either Clowe or Clarkson (close to $ 5 mill per year on a 3 or 4 year deal). And I could see them also doing a Gagner for Dubinsky type of deal if Gagner wants too much. A loss talent wise for sure. Seems like the kind of thing they would think makes us better, and also give them the “reasoning” for bringing back some of our vets to make sure we have experience. And that will kill us.

  42. TheOtherJohn says:

    Want to make sure I get this right. we are three points out of 27th overall (ie picking #3) after just having our lunches handed to us by a shitty team that called up 4 players from the Abbottsford Flames and some here think many are being pessimistic. When do you suggest its ok to start getting pessimistic? 2 or 3 more year out of the playoffs?

    DeLooper asked: “You might want to go and check who it was that predicted the playoffs this season”

    In response I refer you to
    JohnnyRocket from April 13 who posted:
    April 13, 2013 at 3:07 pm

    “Anyone else watching OIl Change on Access? Its the last episode of the 2010-11 season. Tambo ends it with saying they are fortunate to have 1 overall picks two years in a row, but there is no way that he wants to be in that seat on TSN next year. And that the goal is the playoffs next year.”

    Assuming Johnny Rockey watched the clip in Q and accurately cited his statement Steve Tambellini stated the goal for the Oilers LAST YEAR was the playoffs.

  43. RickDeckard says:

    Finally, management saying the re-build is officially only 3 year’s old is spin.Stop with the con.The re-build began the day it became public that Chris Pronger wanted out and moving the goalposts is a cop-out.You may have just decided that deliberately tanking was going to be the official start of the second phase of the re-build.

    I think the two phases have enough differences in strategy to allow them to be counted separately. Doesn’t mean the first phase isn’t rope with which to hang Lowe.

  44. Kris11 says:

    Here’s what Tambellini needs to do:

    Find a good backup goalie (Dubnyk still might fall apart, as he is still a bit unproven)
    Sign or trade Gagner (for a Dman, if traded)
    Make a trade for a signifcantly good top 4 Dman
    Sign another Dman
    Completely rework the bottom 6: Jones, Petrell, Belanger, Smithson, and more need to go
    Completely rework the bottom pairing and not with Klefbom who should start in the A: Dump Potter, Peckham, Fistric won’t be back
    Use a compliance buyout, probably on Smyth
    Trade Hemsky for a Dman (we need that more, and the Dman who comes back will likely have a bad cap hit)

    You need to end up with something like this:

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    MPS-Horcoff-Yakupov
    XXX-XXX-XXX
    Brown-XXX-Hartikainen
    XXX

    XXX-XXX
    Smid-Petry
    Schultz-Schultz
    XXX

    You need to fill in the X’s with either Gagner, Hemsky, UFA’s, and the results of trading away picks and prospects, Or you can not use Gagner and Hemsky and try to trade them for more pieces to fill in those spots (which is preferred, IMO).

    There aren’t many good D as UFA’s so I would trade both Gagner and Hemsky for D, and then grab the best set of UFA forwards that I could to fill in lines 3 and 4, maybe trying to get at least one really good UFA. I still like Morrow too.

  45. Gret99zky says:

    delooper: Hall and the kids have pretty clearly taken a step forward.They acquired J.Schultz without giving up anything, that is a step forward.

    You might want to go and check who it was that predicted the playoffs this season, before you start going and tarring Ashley with that label.

    Sorry, Ashley, that last one was not directed at you.

    And Delooper, I do read this forum and I know that you are a world class optimist. According to your post history we all need to relax, it’s going to turn out just fine, we need to be more patient, we are too hard on the players and the management, sugar coat this and rah-rah that. Glad the meds are working.

    Hall and the kids? Hall has improved. What kids? Eberle, RNH?

    And to be fair I consider myself an optimist as well. But I refuse to believe this hockey team is improving the way it should be and I refuse to turn a blind eye toward management and posters who tell me everything is going according to plan.

    *raspberry*

  46. DBO says:

    If the team just went for the top Corsi lads next year I wonder what we could get. What is greta is that our kids are killing it from our top line.
    Corsi Relative min 30 games
    Hall- 4th
    Eberle – 7th
    Nuge – 12th

    Targets
    Clarkson – 16th. ALso is top 20 in PIM’s for forwards (fitting our need for “grit”)
    Clarke Macatthur – 30th. UFA. Down year scoring wise. Would be a nice fit on the 3rd line. He isn’t a huge hitter or fighter, but he is a real 3rd liner who fits our needed age cluster (28).

    Those two additions would add real players, give us more depth and while Clarkson will be a big payday, I expect Maccarthur could be had fr not too much.

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Paajarvi-Gagner-Clarkson
    Maccarthur-Horcoff-Yakupov
    Harsky-Lander-Brown
    Smyth

  47. cabbiesmacker says:

    Anyone looking to see some real hockey should tune in the Blues/Hawks game on the tube right now.

    Not so much for the hockey itself, although it’s a classic battle between two of the big boys, but for whats sitting right behind Hitchcock. Mercy. I haven’t see the face yet but I don’t really need to.

    When they get just the right angle and frame things perfectly it looks like Hitch is leaning back into a big pillowy LazyBoy.

    I heartily endorse this seeming new trend in hockey to park ones “assets” , replete with low cut apparel in the prime viewing areas.

    Totally off topic but man do the Blues have a lot of quality pieces on D. They could be an excellent trade partner.

  48. prairieschooner says:

    My inside baseball guy tells me the Gernat issue is 100% about money.
    As I understand it he wants 2nd rounder money (where he might go if he went back into the draft) and the Oilers want to pay him 5th rounder money.
    The madness is that it is probably not a lot of money but the Oilers appear to be standing pat on principal.
    And if I may add a comment
    Lordy!

  49. DBO says:

    And above i didn’t have Hemsky. I think due to dollars and perception he will be gone at the draft. For what? No idea, but somewhere who needs skill. May be Columbus. May be Nashville. Doubt we get anything but picks back.

  50. TheOtherJohn says:

    My fix would be slightly different from Kriss11

    if it was possible i would trade Eberle, Petry ++ for Shea Weber *** if making that trade i would first resign Gagner because he would be our new 1RW. We would be moving out a very good player and a real solid D man for an absolutely elite full meal deal D at $1.833m more than Eberle salary. I would also offer Eberle and Petry for OEL but D Maloney is a pretty smart guy

    In either scenario i would then use Hemsky to get a numbers munching defensive D

    i would tell Smytty he can retire or will play 25 games or less next year. His choice. What a horrible 2 year signing. Horrible! The other chaff I would similarly blow out. sign Boyd Gordon as UFA

    My lineup if Weber or OEL can be had is:

    Hall-RNH-Gagner
    MPS-Horcoff-Yakupov
    XXX-Boyd Gordon-XXX
    Brown-XXX-Hartikainen
    XXX

    Weber/OEL -XXX
    Smid-XXX
    Schultz-Schultz
    Fistric or Peckham but not both

  51. asiaoil says:

    rickithebear:
    What disturbes me is the quality starts dubnyk gave us (2G in reg) versus results.
    34 GM
    1G or les 9GM 9W
    2 goals 15GM4W-6L – 5 OTL
    3 goals6 gm1W – 5L
    4+ goals 4GM4L

    24 of 34 were 2 goal games. 71% are should win games.

    Absolutely – we wasted an above average year of goaltending and a year where our defense lost almost no games to injury. Think we get that next year? Maybe – maybe not. That’s why you never intentionally tank when you have a legit shot at the playoffs. The dice may roll differently next year and things can all go south on the team even if they are finally “trying” to win. Ryan Smyth was laughing his ass off on the bench in the 3rd period – he knows what’s going down.

  52. rickithebear says:

    Started this At 9:00
    so who knows what preceeds this.

    For a year and a half i have wondered if the speed of the game has reduced the life expectancy of a Career.
    With the overall spped difference between best and worst skaters reduced, I would expect the player life cycle to simulate the cycles of football and rugby.
    our team is there:
    32Yr +
    KHB 40 UFA
    Smyth 37 2.25M
    Belanger 35 1.75M
    Horcoff 34 5.5M
    Smithson 34 .8M ufa

    27-31
    N. Schultz 30 3.5M
    Whitney 30 4.0M ufa
    Potter 29 .875M
    Hemsky 29 5.0M
    Petrell 29 .825M ufa
    Jones 28 1.5M ufa
    Brown 27 .737M
    Smid 27 3.5M

    26 and under
    Dubnyk 26 3.5M
    Fistric 26 1.475M ufa
    Peckham 25 1.08M rfa
    Petry 25 1.75M
    Gagner 23 3.2M
    J. Schultz 22 3.775M
    Eberle 22 6.0M
    MP 21 1.525M
    Hall 21 6.0M
    RNH 19 3.775M
    Yakupov 19 3.775M

    Prospect likely’s
    Hartikainen 22 0.875M rfa
    rajalas 21 0.817M
    Lander 21 0.9M
    Marancin 20 0.87M
    Klefbolm 19 1.275M

    Ask yourself;
    what ufa’s do you retain.
    Who on the team is better at similiar roles.
    Are there prospects who can replace existing players.
    Can we get ufa’s who make us better at value.

    Sadly! We could draw a line between smid and Brown.
    Would we be any worse.

  53. fuzzy muppet says:

    DBO,

    Hemsky for Ryan Ellis??? Blum maybe??? Josi???

  54. sliderule says:

    There is a great item on cult of hockey giving the age group were our production is coming from compared to our opponents.

    No surprise it’s all from youth with oil while opponents it’s the experienced guys.

    They need to rebalance the roster with some good experienced players .

    They shouldn’t have to sell the farm as the new cap is going to free up some good vets .

    Maybe Howson can figure out how to do this as Tambo struck out on his last try

  55. maudite says:

    They thought we were a Danny Heatley and believed we were in the playoff hunt that year… It’s still the same management team and since then all they’ve seemed to accomplish is burning more useful players and extending completely useless ones.

    You don’t keep the people that ran your business into the ground to straighten it back out.

  56. DBO says:

    rickithebear,

    Good questions
    what ufa’s do you retain = none. Clear them out, all are replaceable based on skill.

    Who on the team is better at similar roles = Hartikainen is an upgrade on our UFA wingers as well as Smyth and Brown right now. He has to be here based on waivers anyways, so he will be up all lyear next year.

    Are there prospects who can replace existing players = Lander I think brings an edge and more effort then Belanger (who is my buyout/trade target asap)

    Can we get ufa’s who make us better at value = posted it above, but Maccarthur is an inexpensive solid option at 3 LW who may cost around what we paid for Smyth.

  57. DBO says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    They did love Ellis at the draft. He is small though so who knows what they go for. Blum is a similar player with more size. They looked at him last year as well. I could see it happening for one of them. Both are RH and upgrade our 3rd RD and work as a nice pair with Shultz the Elder. Still need a 1 LD but it would be a start.

  58. rickithebear says:

    No weber ever.

    he is 19 minutes of even tough comp.
    He does not remove Schultz from 1st PP unit.
    He is a brutal pker without surer.
    not 1st 2 units on our team.
    For 7+M.
    7+M for 17-19 mnutes of even.

  59. stevezie says:

    Cherry is an easy target, but he was bang on that this team lacks something significant. No, it’s not SMac, but when another team gets a lead and wants to kill a game, the game dies.
    Sure Hemsky or Hall will make the occasional brilliant rush and that is worth something, but last night Calgary wanted to put the game to bed and this team was not able to wake it up.
    That said, Don fighting is cool and all but the PP dying, giving up a bad fourth goal, two lines that can’t score at the best of times and soft goaltending were bigger problems.

  60. eidy says:

    I think tambellini has just finished his assessment for the week after his hire, hence Belanger, smithson, eager, Whitney, yikes. He just hasn’t got to the 09/10 season of film yet. Don’t worry it’s coming….

  61. Beaker says:

    Why why why in everyones “this is what the type should look like scenarios” do they have Horcoff as the 2C? Yes, we have learned that Horcoff is a useful NHLer but lets not go overboard.

  62. eidy says:

    For me,
    1. ST and Lowe out-Jim nill in
    2. Don’t mess with nuge-hall-ebs, it works
    3. Kruger is fine, but lindy ruff may be appealing
    4. Bye bye Whitney, jones, petrel, hordichuk, etc
    5. Buy out Belanger and eager
    6. Lose enough to get into monahan or barkov territory
    7. Stalberg or Bickel, hell get both
    8. Check into Horton.
    9. See if there is interest in gags or hemsky and try to improve the D

    The real key is 1 or else the rest will go opposite George.

  63. cabbiesmacker says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    DBO,

    Hemsky for Ryan Ellis???Blum maybe???Josi???

    NO! Maybe! Good Luck!

  64. FastOil says:

    It would only take a few moves to make this team competitive. Lombardi or Chiarelli would have it done by summer’s end no problem if they so chose. A few hockey trades as well would make the team outstanding.

    I hope that something changes before too much damage is done. There are a lot of very ineffective players on the team, it’s hard to believe they can watch the games and do nothing except think that they need “more size” in the top 6.

    Size isn’t the problem. It’s that they have a few players that don’t mind getting beat on a play to play, game to game basis that really only want to play offense. Personally I don’t like that type of player. The bottom end forwards I think are doing what they are asked to, which is why they keep them – lots of speed, some hits. The instructions are bad and the players not good.

    Up front I enjoy watching Hall, RNH, Yak, Pajaarvi, Horcoff. They affect the game in ways good for the team. Petry is great, Smid and JS used properly are keepers. I think any other skater is expendable for the right return. That gives a lot of chips to play with for a GM with some skill and a plan.

    The Oilers are not screwed roster wise. After this draft they have a lot of assets. They have a summer coming up with a lot of potential for player movement. They have cap room. They have several elite young players and a good goalie. Really it’s a GM’s dream. There is no excuse for anything but success.

  65. Bushed says:

    prairieschooner,

    Seems about right.

    And we all know how well things turn out when this franchise digs in its heels on principle. Ask Smyth or Comrie or Souray or…

    Lordy indeed.

  66. TheOtherJohn says:

    They do not have cap room. they, sequentially, have to resign RNH, J Schultz, DD and Yak. MPS, too.

    That is part of the problem, the pieces are not in place and lots of your core will want and get a real raise

  67. speeds says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Musil is tracking very well based on what we read. He is not an offensive player, and he’ll have to play big EV and PK minutes in the NHL to cover that bet, but he’s a very good junior defenseman and that’s the only league they’ll let him play in.

    Next year, he’ll tackle pro but I don’t see any evidence to suggest we should be disappointed with Musil as a player.

    I think any disappointment with Musil would have more to do with the alternatives available at the time he was picked than Musil specifically. Musil isn’t who I would have picked, but he was not an off the board pick, nor has his development been awful since the draft (although it would be more encouraging if his skating had improved by more than the reports I’ve read).

    EDM felt they needed a PF type, so they took Moroz (6’2″, 208 lbs) at 32 in 2012.

    Moroz’s stats: 66GP 16G 9A for 25 pts, +5

    In 2011, had the felt the same need, they could have taken Saad instead of Musil, a higher ranked player in his draft year than Moroz in his draft year (and higher ranked than Musil by some, for that matter).

    Saad’s (6’1″, 202 lbs) stats: 59GP 27G 28A for 55 pts, +8

    I’m not saying it was reasonable to expect Saad to be this good, this quickly – for that matter, I’m not even saying I necessarily would have taken Saad – he wasn’t the highest guy remaining left on my board.

    But if you are going to go a little bit off board for a PF type, all I’m saying is that I think the argument for doing so is stronger with a player like Saad, who has a better history of production, than a player like Moroz.

  68. gcw_rocks says:

    eidy,

    Using both compliance buyouts this summer would be foolish. They need to keep one for summer 2014 in case Horcoff craters or they have cap issues. Burying Eager in the minors only costs them ~$200K against the cap. That is definitely NOT worth using up a compliance buy out.

    Using one on Belanger would seem to be a prudent move, however. On that I can agree.

  69. ashley says:

    Good discussion. To clarify, I guess I see Hall, RNH, MPS, Dubnyk, Yak, all taking a step forward. These are the core. J Schultz is finding his way. Petry and Smid are starting to look like a bonafide top pair. These are the big pieces. We need more than that obviously. It’s too easy to defend against a line or two, and too easy to score against a team with only three quality D.

    Still we only have to look at the improved balance and first line’s dominance with Horcoff in the lineup to see what a huge difference some hard working two way (veteran?) players can make. I think once we fill in the gaps with some of those pieces, young or old, we’ll see some results in the standings.

    I don’t think the standings are a good measure of progress in this case. The data are too noisy. In a league where there is much parity, and the difference between making the playoffs and missing out can be a few bad bounces, or a significant injury, using standings is a crude measure of ability. Look at Anaheim. There is no way they should be where they are in the standings. A lucky season for them.

    We were so far in the hole the last three years, parity is not a word you could use for this team. This year we’re running with the bulls. We’ve got some work to do, but we’re very close, much moreso than we could say in previous years.

  70. Woodguy says:

    RMGS,

    I appreciate that.

    I’m trying to do specific game ranges,

    That’s in info I lack.

    How to get all columns of fenclose for specific game ranges for teams.

  71. VanOil says:

    While I understand the emotions of those advocating whole sale change and I hate to see managements poor performance rewarded, I don’t see big changes coming in the off season.

    Tambo and most of the management team will keep there jobs, they shouldn’t, but we have seen no evidence that they won’t. So I don’t expect a change in philosophy or competence at pro recruiting.

    Therefore all I think we can reasonably hope for is a do no harm off season, like our do no harm trade deadline. With most of the help coming from progression within the organization.

    Fortunately this can be enough to make us a playoff team (but not a Cup contender). My biggest fear is that we sign any of our UFAs other than possibly Fistric as a #7 or #8 Dman.

    An off season and some coaching should enable Schultz Jr to be a top 4 Dman and Yakupov a second line winger.

    I don’t see the Oilers buying out Smyth because of history and Belanger because for Center depth especially if RNH is out until December after shoulder surgery. If Lander replaces Petrell on the wing hopefully a Belanger-Smyth-Lander 4th line can hold water. Until the trade deadline when Lander takes Belanger’s job.

    Like wise Hartikainen taking Jones’ job on the third line with Horcoff and Hemskey is not an unreasonable expectation. Barring injuries to this very injury prone line they should be an OK NHL third line. Brown can drag his Knuckles in the press box.

    On defense hope that Streit’s old as dirt body has another NHL season in it. Pair him with Schultz Jr. Smid and Petry as is and to start the year Potter-Schultz Sr as a bottom pair. Kelfbom starting in the AHL until he takes Potter’s job at the Olympic break. Fedum being the first call up before hand.

    Draft Sean Monahan. Send him to the AHL and WJC until the trade deadline. When Hemsky is finally shipped out to address what ever is the bigger hole, an experienced DMan or Center. Monahan can apprentice on Horcoff’s wing.

    Sign a decent backup goalie.

    This team would not be great but it might make the playoffs. It would require the minimal of off season work and not rely on what Oilers have shown very little competence at, signing pro players.

    It is very reliant on Schultz, Yakupov and RK not hitting a sophomore slump and actually improving. Plus RNH’s shoulder upon which I think our entire season hinges next year. I really don’t want to watch Belanger ever play hockey again but being an Oilers plan has taught me to get used to disappointment.

  72. Woodguy says:

    Don Maloney’s contract is up this summer.

    Would love for him to take over EDM.

    I doubt he goes here though. This GM job doesn’t come with the normal decision making powers.

    Could Maloney answer to someone he feels is inferior to take a plum job of building around 4-14-93-64-19-91-89?

  73. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy,

    If we can get Lowe fired (and I think we at least have to give waffles and “Fire Lowe” chants a try), Don Maloney could be exactly what this team needs.

  74. TheOtherJohn says:

    Doing nothing is what got us here. Doing more of nothing will keep us here and then, magically, when all of the core: Hall, Yak, RNH, J Schu, Eberle, DD, Petry & MPs expects to be paid real $$$ we will have other pressures to move big $$ contracts out. That is what Chicago already taught us.

    So sure, do nothing but our chance at being perennial contenders for the SC will be gone. Or at least it will be unless all the magic beans outperform their draft position. Which has not been happening to date

  75. Gret99zky says:

    Ashley, are you telling me a team with exactly the same winning percentage (.390) two years in a row is much improved and the Anaheim Ducks winning percentage compared to last year is a mirage?

  76. denny33 says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Agreed.

    Abotsford Heat…..backup goalie….we score 1 goal?

    Fighting for a playoff berth?

    WG – posted the numbers -we are that bad.

    Problems are Deeper than just 3rd & 4th line.

    Heck -4th line at least scored last night..

    Big time character display the last week….1 goal / game fighting for plaoffs?

    Just so glad we were able to pick up Smithson.

  77. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    And they have been getting good goaltending.

  78. ashley says:

    Gret99zky,

    Yes, something along those lines. I think you put too much weight in winning percentage. Ultimately, this is the goal of course, to have an improved winning percentage. To compete at a high enough level to overcome bad luck if it rolls our way, and welcome good luck as it comes (ANA this year).

    Every year, the media makes a really big deal about an 8th or 7th seed beating out a first/second seed. I don’t know why. With the degree of parity in the NHL, it should almost be expected that at least one of the four 7th/8th seeds will beat out a top seed in a small sample of a best of 7 series.

    The difference between a top seed and an eighth seed is much smaller than it looks with all the teams between. The difference might be an injury or two to a key player for the eighth place team, or maybe a distraction in the locker room for a few months. The difference might be a goaltender playing unsustainable hockey for the first place team, or everything Perry throws at the net seems to go in.

    Same can be said of those teams that make the 6th-8th seeds, and those that find themselves 5 points back.

    Slating ANA for a first round knock out against whomever they match up against would be more than a reasonable bet. There are going to be teams that miss the playoffs who are better than ANA.

  79. Captain Obvious says:

    If anything the team is worse than they used to be. They are being artificially buoyed by goaltending and special teams.

    My frustration doesn’t stem from being disappointed. I’m not disappointed because this season has gone exactly as I thought it would. This team doesn’t have anywhere near enough talent to compete and I said that before the season started. I said that at game ten and I”m saying it now. The problem isn’t a deficiency in size it is a deficiency in talent.

    This problem stems directly from the Oilers plan for team building. They think of the roster in terms of roles, boxes, and check marks. They seek to fill these predetermined boxes (fourth line energy winger) instead of just adding talent. The giveaway for all of this is Omark. Not because he’s the greatest player in the world. He isn’t. But they let him go because they didn’t have a role for him. Meanwhile they kept Petrell because they did.

    The Oilers are the only hockey team in the world that would choose Petrell over Omark and yet they repeat this decision making heuristic 1000x a year. This is why they didn’t pick up Jussi Jokinen when he was available for free. This is how they sign free agents and make trades. This is why the Oilers are terrible. This is why the Oilers will always be terrible.

    It is really very simple. Talent is the only thing that matters. Player roles and mix are irrelevant. Teams that understand this win. Teams that don’t lose.

    Once you realize this you realize that all this talk is waste of time. In four years the Oilers haven’t made a single good move. Not one. Think about that for second. .

  80. ashley says:

    Captain Obvious:
    It is really very simple.Talent is the only thing that matters.Player roles and mix are irrelevant.Teams that understand this win.Teams that don’t lose.

    I agree with this. The problem is the defense needs 3 more defenders, and the bottom 6 is not talented enough. And I’m not talking about grit. Pucks in their net, not ours.

    But this is where I lose the fanbase. It’s as if we can find 12 players more talented, but fairly priced than these current 12 needing replacing with a little trade and waiver work. Other GM’s are all looking for the same fairly priced talent. Overpriced is why a guy like Jokinen makes it through waivers. You’re hamstrung if you start chasing marginal opportunities like that. It’s just not that simple. It takes a whole, balanced roster to make a winning team. We’ve got the hard part done. We still need more players…more talent, and they are bubbling from within.

    Measuring the seasone with the win-loss record is really very crude. It is simple outcome bias. The same bias that leads Weekes and friends to talk about the team down by two in the third on two lucky bounces even though they are outshooting the winning team 2-1 “just not going to the net….aren’t doing the little things….aren’t creating traffic” then when they tie it up, Kevin is suddenly talking about how hard the come-from-behind team is working..going to the blue paint….traffic in front. The reality is that nothing has changed with the way the two teams are playing. Just the score has.

    We can be more sophisticated than staring at a poor team record and declaring the season a total failure. There are thousands of moving parts in there, and for the most part, they are starting to gear together to propel this ship in the right direction.

  81. FastOil says:

    While stats can be very complex, they have made well played hockey really easy to understand.

    The Oilers have three forwards (Hall Pajaarvi and Horcoff) that currently can drive the bus so to speak, and two that seem like they will in Yak and RNH. Three of these are the youngest players. Anyone older than this IMO is not going to get there and stay there. They have to be moved for players that can do what matters to winning games.

    The odd highlight play or big point game isn’t enough, you need guys that will drive play consistently 5v5.

    If a guy like Maloney came to Edmonton I think you would see everyone but Hall, RNH, Yak, Horcoff, MPS, JS, Smid, Petry and Dubnyk gone for different player types and guys that play well currently, or well at all.

  82. fuzzy muppet says:

    2 more points for Rajala. How about a test run??

  83. Captain Obvious says:

    ashley,

    I wish it were only outcome bias. The problem is that the underlying indicators are worse than their won-loss record.

    That is what is so terrifying. The Oilers won-loss record flatters them. They have been lucky to win as many games as they have. Moreover, the cavalry isn’t coming. There is very little room for improvement from within. The players they have are already at or near their peak. The Taylor Hall we have right now is one of the best players in the NHL. You shouldn’t count on him getting better. Eberle is a sixty point player. That’s who he is and who he has always been. No improvement there. Hopkins is and was always a weak #1 overall pick. This is Gagner’s peak. The only dramatic leap forward to come is Yakupov. The AHL team is bereft of talent and there is almost nothing in junior. With the exception of Klefbom and whomever the #1 pick ends up being this is as good as it is going to get.

    Meanwhile the Islanders have filled out half their team with guys on waivers and are set to make the playoffs. You could put together a very good back half of the roster if you were judicious with waiver claims and trades. It would be infinitely better than what the Oilers have.

    For instance, imagine a third line of Michael Grabner, Jussi Jokinen, and Loktionov. All freely available. All quite capable NHL players. All much better than what the Oilers are icing. Then you could afford to trade Gagner or Hemsky or whatever to improve the D. Instead the Oilers are doomed to rob Peter to pay Paul because their roster has no depth because they waste time on dreck like Petrell, Hordichuk, Eager, Brown, Peckham, Smithson, and Jones. I mean the list of useless hockey players the Oilers have employed over the past three years is stunning. It’s a way station to the out of hockey league for players who aren’t good enough for the AHL let alone the NHL.

  84. ashley says:

    Captain Obvious,

    So we agree on the major issue, more talent needed, but disagree on how we are going to get there and also disagree with whether progress is being made or not. I guess we’ll have to leave it there.

    I enjoy reading your posts BTW. You make your arguments succinctly, yet with a casual, almost conversational flair.

  85. BlacqueJacque says:

    Tambo fired, MacT GM, Howson takes over MacT’s role. The three headed hydra of incestuous incompetence changes costumes, still remains.

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