FEELS LIKE RAIN

The 2012 NHL entry draft was a success for the Edmonton Oilers the moment they called Nail Yakupov’s name. A brilliant offensive player with a motor that won’t quit, a spirit borrowed from Rasputin and a flair for the dramatic not seen in the NHL for years, Yak City captured the heart of Edmonton without a throw.

Now. About the rest.

Let’s start with Bob McKenzie’s list

  • #1: Nail Yakupov
  • #47: Daniil Zharkov
  • #56: Mitchell Moroz

Now, let’s look at the names who attended the combine:

  • Nail Yakupov
  • Mitchell Moroz
  • Jujhar Khaira
  • Daniil Zharkov

And finally the actual Oiler draft list:

  • Nail Yakupov selected #1
  • Mitchell Moroz selected #32
  • Jujhar Khaira selected #63
  • Daniil Zharkov selected #91
  • Erik Gustafsson selected #93
  • Joey Laleggia selected #123
  • John McCarron selected #153

According to my thinking, the Oilers should expect performance from slots #1, #32, #63, #91 and #93. One guy should be an impact player for more than a decade, and after that the club should expect a couple of these fellows to pass 200 NHL games during their career. Which ones? Not a clue. That’s why we watch the games. I will guess below.

yakupov25

12-13 NHLE’s (Yakupov’s are his NHL numbers extrapolated over 82 gp)

  1. Nail Yakupov 21-27-48
  2. Joey Laleggia 9-16-25
  3. Jujhar Khaira 5-18-23
  4. John McCarron 7-12-19
  5. Daniil Zharkov 10-8-18
  6. Erik Gustafsson 4-10-14
  7. Mitchell Moroz 5-7-12
  • The Impact Man: Yakupov’s number is even more impressive considering his TOI total and some of the linemates he’s played with this season. What a dream player. One never knows how things will work out over time, but this has been a wonderful year to watch the mad Russian and thank goodness he’s on our side.
  • The undersized skill blue:  Laleggia enjoyed the second best offensive season–impressive for a defenseman–but he’s still going to have a very difficult time making the NHL as a 200 game (or more) regular. Marc-Andre Bergeron’s NHLE was 14-20-34 at the same age. Still, he still warrants interest and I’d guess he’ll get a contract after his college career is up.
  • The kid from Tech: I think Khaira has a real chance to be an NHL player based on first year results. He’s a center, 6.03, 195 and had 49 pims in 37 games (6-19-25) as a freshmen. Playing time appeared to go in and out but I’d say he’s the second best Oiler prospect in this draft after one year.
  • Big man from Cornell: McCarron is interesting because he’s 6.02, 225 and has some scoring ability. He’s two years older than Moroz and could turn pro this fall (he’s 21 in a few days) or stay in school.
  • We drafted another Russian? Zharkov is a guy I still like plenty, but his offense didn’t shine this year–that’s a concern.
  • The Kingdom of Sweden: Erik Gustafsson had a nice season, have no idea what the organization thinks of him or if he’ll ever play in North America. He was taken deep in the draft and seems to have a solid career in Sweden, don’t know if these guys want the NHL badly enough to spend some winters in Oklahoma City.
  • The guy they like: Mitchell Moroz did not have a breakout season. The Oilers loved the kid on draft day. Stu Macgregor: “You always have to step up if there was a player you like. We liked him, we followed him and his developmental curve is on the way up. He provides some toughness, but not just toughness, he’s a good hockey player. He takes the puck to the net real hard and he shows a little bit of touch around the net. He’s only played one year of junior and I think he’s got an opportunity, with continuous development and drive, to be a good player for us.” The numbers tell us he is a long shot.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

wood15

 

The Oilers under MacGregor are basically running four different races:

  1. The #1 overalls. MBS is completely risk averse here, I’m completely satisfied they got the right guy.
  2. The ranked/combine group. This is the heart of the MBS group-15 players taken since 2008 were both on BM’s list and 7 more where either honorable mention or unranked but attended the combine. This year’s names are Yakupov, Moroz, Khaira and Zharkov. My guess is the next NHL player from the 2012 draft is from this group and  it’s going to be Khaira.
  3. The walkabout bunch. This is the group that sees Edmonton grab players inside the top 100 who are not ranked in the top 100 and were not included in the combine group. This collection includes Troy Hesketh, Cameron Abney, Jeremie Blain from past drafts, and Erik Gustafsson qualifies from the 2012 edition. He seems like a fine player but I have no idea if he has NHL potential and or aspirations.
  4. The overage college kids. McCarron and Laleggia are interesting players and they certainly had solid seasons in 12-13. I don’t know that they improved or went backwards in the estimation of the organization.

As prospects, I ranked them like this and then brackets where they’ll be going on the June list:

  1. #1 prospect: Yakupov (graduates this spring)
  2. #7 prospect: Khaira (he’ll likely move up the list)
  3. #12 prospect: Moroz (he’ll be moving down the list)
  4. #15 prospect: Laleggia (he’ll be around the same number)
  5. #20 prospect: Zharkov (he’ll move up slightly)
  6. #30 prospect: Gustafsson (he’ll move up, possibly into the top 20)
  7. not ranked prospect: McCarron (he’ll certainly be among the top 30)

Up next: we’ll look at the 2011 entry draft (I’ll have that for you tomorrow). The GDT will go up around 5pm.

clock

Lowetide at High Noon goes at 12pm today on Team 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Former Edmonton Oiler Doug Hicks, who is part of a huge fundrasier for Alzheimer’s that involves you, playing with former NHLers and a weekend of fun.
  • James Mirtle from the Globe and Mail. We’ll talk Leafs, Randy Carlyle’s unusual decisions, Oilers and trade deadline
  • Michael Parkatti, Boys on the Bus. Michael’s shot differential numbers have been an excellent guide to the season, and we’ll ask his opinion of men like Ryan Whitney, Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky.
  • Bruce McCurdy from Cult of Hockey: We’ll talk trade deadline, Oilers in the summer and Curtis Lazar.
  • Corey Graham, pbp man for the Oil Kings. I’ll ask Corey about the amazing run for the Oil Kings this spring, the job ahead for the team and get a prospect update on names like Gernat and Musil.

Hope you can tune in, best way to get questions and comments to our guests is on twitter @Lowetide_ or in the comments section below.

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72 Responses to "FEELS LIKE RAIN"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hey LT,

    Ask Mirtle about Grabo’s intestinal issues and the Grabo/Gardiner trade talk people have been bandying around.

    My question on Laleggia and all other undersized players is do they play “bigger” than they are? MAB threw a lot of hilarious hip/ass checks and players like T. Fleury, Marchand and that Gallagher kid in Mont. all play bigger. I suspect that is the quality NHL teams look for in a smaller player, esp. considering the oiler fantasies about “toughness” and “size”.

    As far as Gustafsson is concerned… I assume he entered the draft, or has the authority to enter or not… doesn’t that imply that he wants a North American job?

  2. Ducey says:

    Daniil had 32 pts in his last 29 regular season games. Then has 9pts in 10 playoff games and is +10 so far. He’s 20th in OHL playoff scoring. And he has the second most PIM’s among the players in the top 20.

    He tends to score more goals than assists which means he isn’t just racking up second assists or something.

    With his size I think there is a player there.

    Maybe you can ask C. Graham whether Gernat is going to sign.

    I’d also like to know if Bruce thinks the Oilers should be dumping Hemsky.

  3. DBO says:

    Khaira could be our Backes type 2nd line centre. But he is at best 3 years away. I expect the possible Gagner deal to be a 2 to 3 year one. Anyone have reasonable dollar comparables for Gagner?

    And I think Zharkov could end up being a steal. Big, mean goal scoring winger. A few years away but he’d look nice at 2 lw opposite his comrade.

  4. fuzzy muppet says:

    LT,

    I would love if you did a post on the Oilers contract list. Who’s coming in, who’s staying, and who’s leaving.

    I know they are maxed out with Musil, ewanyk and others starting their clock next year.

    I would do the work myself , but I’m positive you woluld do it better:)

    Now I have to go find a replacement for jose Reyes for my team…..bah

  5. tcho says:

    If the Oilers have roughly 10 lineup holes to fill, how many get filled from within the system next year? Is it reasonable (or optimistic?) to say 2? Given the numbers, there may more help coming in 2-4 years, but what do you do in the meantime?

    I’m hoping that management is targeting undervalued free agents and contracted players for trade.

    Given their past track record (Khabby, Belanger, Eager…), I’m doubtful.

  6. TheOtherJohn says:

    Love to hear Mirtle & Bruce’ views on Oilers peculiar take on the trade deadline. Be neither a buyer or seller at trade deadline. Because we are potentially losing 4 UFA’s off our NHL roster & will get nothing for them

  7. Jamie says:

    LT,

    Given the long odds of finding a player in the second round and beyond (<15%?), is it really reasonable to expect one of those players in the Oilers pick to be a 200 game man? Especially in a weak draft year (as evidenced by all the over-agers selected in the later rounds). I don't want to give the Oilers a pass, good teams find players in these rounds, but if we are using RE then that has to be taken into account.

  8. FPB94 says:

    Is it me or with time the shine off MBS’ is wearing a bit?

    Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s been money in the first and last rounds, but god are those 2nd-3rd round pick weird and putrid at times.

    Hartikainen, Rajala, Davidson, Gernat, are all interesting prospects out of the latter rounds. (I’d also say Simpson and Roy are doing okay)

    On the other hand there seems to be a void outside of Marincin and Martindale. Can’t really blame him for the Pitlick pick because he looked fine before this year but, Abney, Moroz, Hesketh. Good lord are those some legendary failures (and they all couldn’t score in Junior)

    As for the Barons: Toni Rajala deserves a callup. He’s been PPG for half a season now. Time to grab those late bloomers instead of pushing for your own guys constantly.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jamie,

    these aren’t all 2nd rounders… but that roughly 15% chance means every 6th player ought to make it all things being equal.

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect 1 of your non-1st rounders to amount to something.

  10. FPB94 says:

    Jamie,

    If you look back at that 2nd round, until pick 50, (reasonable variance range) there’s approximately 3 guys you could BEGIN to argue that they are of equal value to Moroz (Blujus, Sieloff, Fournier). All the rest is flush ahead by a mile.

  11. fuzzy muppet says:

    FPB94,

    Reider in the 4th also looks like it may have been a decent pick.

    Rounds 2 and 3 have really been his downfall. Like you said, it’s hard to fault him on Pitlick as he was rated 1st round by most scouts lists, but Moroz, Hesketh, Martindale, Abney all look like flops (so far)

  12. eidy says:

    FPB94,

    I would add Rieder and Pelss to the list of prospects outperforming their draft number.

    With the addition of Ewanyk, Moroz, Kessy I am hoping that the walk about stops and they pick BPA

  13. eidy says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    what you said:)

  14. FPB94 says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    Martindale’s been 0,5 PPG. He’s fine. Hamilton’s been shitting bricks.

    I’ve checked out a lot of the draft history and it seems a lot of these Blades looked like fine picks but ended up imploding (Siemens, Sutter, Hamilton, Thrower)

    Also why exactly Andrey Makarov wasn’t drafted with a ,913 and ,919 save%?

    Smarmy help us maybe?

  15. Woodguy says:

    Would like to hear Mirtle’s take on if Carlyle doesn’t like Gardiner and Grabbo, which would make it more likely that Nonis trades them as firing the first coach to get the team to the playoffs since the 2005 lock out isn’t going to happen.

    When you are talking deadline with Mirtle and Bruce can you explore the fact that Oilers could have gotten better by trading away their chaf like SJS did?

    SJS is 8-1-1 since trading Murray.

    Can you also try to explain how DAL has gone 4-1 after getting rid of Jagr and Roy?

  16. eidy says:

    I have a much harder time being hard on 19 yo kids trying to find their way into manhood in the AHL so I can’t be too hard on them. Now management and their incompetence is a different story.

    I like Pitlick and hope he can turn it around. He can’t continue with a shooting percentage of 3% and 5% forever can he? This year has been a tough year developmentally for him with the lockout and then also the injury. Lots of time we talk about other team 3rd and 4th liners from other teams being former high picks that were point per game players in junior. Well Pitlick and to a lesser degree Hamilton might fill that role. They have size, can hit, and presumably pass and receive a pass. I am not writing them off yet

  17. Woodguy says:

    eidy:
    FPB94,

    I would add Riederand Pelss to the list of prospects outperforming their draft number.

    With the addition of Ewanyk, Moroz, Kessy I am hoping that the walk about stops and they pick BPA

    I was going to mention that too.

    Hopefully they stick to BPA in the 2nd round now.

    Lots of really high end Dmen come out of the 2nd round, some good forwards too.

  18. eidy says:

    So Edmonton sits in 10th position in the league, tied with New Jersey by P%. They are 26th in S/G and 29th in SA/G, and have the worst differentialy of 5.7. Safe to say that we are actually worse than the position we sit and are only saved by above average goaltending

    Also, I have been pushing Stalberg here for the last few weeks and hear crickets back. His underlying numbers look great, what am I missing. He seems like the prime free agent target. I don’t know what he would cost but he is in the right age range and looks ready to take a bigger role. I don’t think it would put us out of the Horton sweepstakes either.

    What am I missing on Stalberg?

  19. FPB94 says:

    Woodguy,

    Right now there’s Nicholas Petan at N28 who got 47 goals and 73 assists. I suspect he’s dropped because A: he’s small and B : They think he might be the byproduct of his strong team (Portland) but i’d rather risk that, than risking on a guy who can,t play.

  20. oilersfan says:

    I was looking up david musil’s mid season write up on the tsn bob mckenzie list. Even in january he was at 27 whereas Saad was at 8th!! I followed Saad after the Penner trade hoping the oilers would pick him with the Klefbom pick. Saad had a groin injury that he played through the second half of that season and he barely got a point. Mediocre stu didnt notice and picked musil 31 when saad was still there. Not to mention rattie and Jenner. Nice nepotism guys! You picked a 7th dman when 3 obviouus top 6 forwards were there. By the way in january 2011 Bob Mckenzie list had Klefbom at 45 it is amazing how fast some people rise and fall in four months. Lets hope Monahan falls to us wherever we are.

  21. Lowetide says:

    EIDY: I don’t think Stalberg is going anywhere, suspect that’s why there are crickets.

    In regard to MacGregor, I’m on board with him as a scouting director. The only draft we can reasonably judge today is 2008 (Eberle and Hartikainen without a 2nd or 3rd) and for me that’s a good one–I gave it a B+ last summer

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/08/mbs-vs-kp-round-one.html

    And a year later I think that’s still about right. So, the 2009 entry draft is 4 years old, and we still have one more year to see Paajarvi, Lander, Bigos, Rajala and Roy. I think there’s a real danger in looking at a draft year too soon, and this one (2009) is proof. Is Paajarvi viewed differently than a year ago? Rajala? A year from now we’ll know more about Lander.

    Arrows are one thing, making the call on an entire draft year is another. For now, I think we can say 2008 was excellent.

  22. eidy says:

    LT- Thx regarding Stalberg. They have Leddy and Kruger to reup as RFA + they need a backup goalie and a few more forwards to fit under the cap. They only have 5.8 million left. I suspect that Leddy will move into the $2 million range and Kruger will need a bit of a raise as well. That will leave 2.8 million for a backup goalie, a 7th D and 3-4 forwards. Do they have the room for Stalberg?

    I hope that they let Olivier Roy take the majority of starts in OKC next year. His GAA and save percentage in the regular season in the ECHL was quite good. The playoffs have not been as kind. Let Bunz start there and Roy move up to the AHL and see how he does. He was not far off of Danis’ year in OKC and far superior to Hovinen.

  23. jfry says:

    Lowetide,

    It feels like things changed a little in the 2010 draft years….philosophy. With the knowledge that they were getting a guarantee with the first pick, I think that there has been a little hubris and swinging for the fences on picks that didn’t require it.

    The 2008 and 2009 drafts look like a drafting team that is bearing down and trying to squeeze as much out of each pick as possible. When we picked first it seemed like there was an attitude of “we’ll, we already won the draft, lets get big.” I think this is in dramatic contrast to 08 and 09.

    As I’ve harped on before. We’ve become far too regional as well. The 2009 draft stretched the world, and I get the feeling now that the oilers would be happy to just draft OKs forever moving forward. I u deer stand the desire because you get to see them everyday, but it also seems lazy and short sighted.

  24. Bank Shot says:

    Sure Moroz may not have offence, but if he succeeds at making the NHL as a 4th line knuckle dragger, a guy like Brian Burke will offer a 2nd round pick for him. That has value. I suspect a lot of the guys selected after him in the second round project as scorer or bust.

  25. gcw_rocks says:

    I think that in the end Galchenyuk will prove to be the best. Player in that draft, but there was no way the Oilers could pick him with that injury. Too bad, he would have been perfect for the Oilers.

  26. Hammers says:

    You and many others have allways said the bulk of drafted players don’t make it untill year 3 or even 4 .. Seems McGregor may have some problems with Pitlick , Hamilton and that group of choices .As an aside if we loose to Calgary expect the fans to boo loud enough for Katz to here in Vancouver .

  27. vishcosity says:

    Show suggestion:

    There have been “show your work” comments regarding analytics. I hear people saying they’re doing regression analysis and fourier transforms but I want to see their formulas. x = 2y/60 stuff. Its not like anyone is doing integrals, most of it could be posted in these comment sections, and then by seeing people’s equations I can get a better sense of what variables I think are missing.

    So my question for your guests is: “What data would you like to see the league collect?”

    (Then maybe if there is consensus between Eric Bruce and Gabe, the league could hire five data collectors and make the info public.)

    For me it would be: shot quality, a passing metric, and TOI in the OHL.

  28. Woodguy says:

    eidy:
    So Edmonton sits in 10th position in the league, tied with New Jersey by P%.They are 26thin S/G and 29th in SA/G, and have the worst differentialy of 5.7.Safe to say that we are actually worse than the position we sit and are only saved by above average goaltending

    Also, I have been pushing Stalberg here for the last few weeks and hear crickets back.His underlying numbers look great, what am I missing.He seems like the prime free agent target.I don’t know what he would cost but he is in the right age range and looks ready to take a bigger role.I don’t think it would put us out of the Horton sweepstakes either.

    What am I missing on Stalberg?

    Stalberg is a very good player and would love to see him here.

    CHI may try hard to keep him.

    Almost a perfect 3rd line player who can play up and down the line up.

  29. eidy says:

    Khabby in, hemsky on IR. We want jones:)

  30. sliderule says:

    I have been tough on MacGregor but so far he has gone BPA in first round.

    Second round he has gone of the board a bit probably influenced by management looking for Lucic clone and nepotism in Musil pick.They both look like marginal picks.The year they took Pitlick he was consensus BPA.

    Scouting is a team process and Stu is only as good as his team especially with picks after second round.The scout that recommended Hesketh was fired .

    The OHL scouts have given us players that have trended above draft position like Rieder and Zharkov.I think Zharkov has played well since the WJC averaging nearly a point a game including playoffs..He was named first star with two goals in Bulls series closeout.
    At 6ft4 and 215 lbs and good skating he could be a player.

  31. Smarmy says:

    FPB94: Smarmy

    I couldn’t say for sure to be honest. I don’t know why so many players took a step back this year but getting swept again in the first round. (Lorne has lost 12 straight playoffs games) is of no surprise to me.

    As for the players you mentioned. Curtis Hamilton always had offense but had two broken collarbone injuries in his draft year. He was good on the boards went to the net and scored where you need to score in the higher leagues. I have no idea what went wrong with him in the AHL. Maybe the flaws were there or its one of those thems the breaks.

    Lukas Sutter peaked in his draft year. This year he looked a lot more like he did his first year in the league. Just no offense in his game this year. I hear WHL watchers say that there are a number of players that take it down a notch once they’re drafted and I don’t know if I believe it but Sutter might be one of those.

    Dalton Thrower had a weird season. At the start of the year there were lockerroom issues. A guy I know who works for the team said his dad even got involved to help sort something out. He looked like he did last season for spurts but disappointed.

    Duncan Siemens never had the offense. He has all the tools but the results are not there.

    On the flipside Darren Dietz had a great year. Habs have a good one with him I think.

  32. eidy says:

    so scoreboard watching, it would be good for Buffalo to beat Philadelphia in OT,
    Colarodo and Carolina to win in Regulation,
    NYI and Montreal to win in regulation as well, because well I hate Toronto and would like to see Torts so mad his head pops off by missing the playoffs
    and columbus to win and make the playoffs because then @nhlbymatty told me that it would be OK to be “furious” that management is completely inept at their job.

    as per Stu the Magnificent bastard, I am a believer. I think he has been more good than bad and chasing these coke machines could be a decision from higher up the food chain. High enough that hopefully the axe takes his head as well

  33. eidy says:

    sliderule,

    second time I have said the same thing as another poster

    man if I didn’t have kids, I would have been so much quicker to the draw with my comments. damn babysitting……errr parenting

  34. Smarmy says:

    Oh and you asked about Makarov. He faded last year after a concussion and I think when you couple that with the fact that he is kind of small for what NHL scouts look for in goaltenders and you have your answer.

    He’s my kind of goalie though. More in the vein of a Hasek or Cuju who goes out and absolutely steals a game with 50 saves and 5 – 5 star saves.

    He’s a pretty chill guy too. I like him.

  35. FPB94 says:

    Smarmy,

    Yeah i’m pretty happy. Everybody but Pufahl seemed to have been drafted. One of them had to pan out.

    As for Makarov: I’l always favor goaltenders who stop the puck than anything else.

  36. Smarmy says:

    FPB94,

    I agree and Buffalo signed Makarov which makes sense as they had Hasek all those years and another little guy in Ryan Miller.

  37. FPB94 says:

    Smarmy,

    Speaking of that: I hope he gets another chance to contend poor guy. That and stop being a thorn in MTL’s side.

  38. Woodguy says:

    Khabby starts tonight.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Derek Zona has a good draft preview up on NHLnumbers.com

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/4/13/2013-nhl-draft-rankings-seth-jones-valeri-nichushkin

    From the piece:

    The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie’s rankings carry the most weight as he’s the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

  40. spoiler says:

    Smarmy:
    FPB94,

    I agree and Buffalo signed Makarov which makes sense as they had Hasek all those years and another little guy in Ryan Miller.

    Miller is 6’2″. I’ve never thought of him as a “little guy”.

  41. jfry says:

    eidy,

    It certainly feels like the tank is on now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see lots of guys get rest coming home. If okc wasn’t in such a battle for the ploffs, we’d be seeing more prospects too I imagine. The Calgary vs col game this week was basically two echl teams … Gonna be tough to out lose those squads

  42. FPB94 says:

    spoiler,

    He’s very slim.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    Derek Zona has a good draft preview up on NHLnumbers.com

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/4/13/2013-nhl-draft-rankings-seth-jones-valeri-nichushkin

    From the piece:

    The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie’s rankings carry the most weight as he’s the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

    Lazar is ranked 16th on that list and I suspect he moves up little once final rankings are released.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Starting lines:

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Paajarvi-Gagner-Yakupov
    Jones-Horcoff-Petrell
    Smyth-Smithson-Brown

    Puck not required for bottom 2 lines.

    Lordy.

  45. spoiler says:

    FPB94:
    spoiler,

    He’s very slim.

    You don’t say.

  46. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy:
    Starting lines:

    Hall-RNH-EberlePaajarvi-Gagner-Yakupov
    Jones-Horcoff-Petrell
    Smyth-Smithson-Brown

    Puck not required for bottom 2 lines.

    Lordy.

    That. Is. Terrible.

    Wow.

    Calgary is playing well lately, so this is not a gimme game.

    At least the mighty Oil are giving themselves the best chance of drafting high.

  47. wuthering says:

    Woodguy:
    Starting lines:

    Hall-RNH-EberlePaajarvi-Gagner-Yakupov
    Jones-Horcoff-Petrell
    Smyth-Smithson-Brown

    Puck not required for bottom 2 lines.

    Lordy.

    At least I didn’t change my snow tires yet.

  48. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    Easy WG relax man.

    Petrell’s better than Hemsky and Jones is just as good.

    Don’t believe me: :-P

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/04/12/oilers-player-grades-games-31-40-good-times-bad-times/

  49. TheOtherJohn says:

    jfry:
    eidy,

    It certainly feels like the tank is on now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see lots of guys get rest coming home. If okc wasn’t in such a battle for the ploffs, we’d be seeing more prospects too I imagine. The Calgary vs col game this week was basically two echl teams … Gonna be tough to out lose those squads

    I have clearly been using the wrong definition from many here on what constitutes “tanking”. I assumed that “tanking” meant deliberately trying to lose. From the comments here I now realize that reference to “tanking’ simply means your management has assembled a shitty roster while trying to compete

    That is my definition of professional incompetence

  50. godot10 says:

    On Zona’s list,
    8 D Darnell Nurse 2/4/1995 6’4 185 Soo Greyhounds 0
    9 F Hunter Shinkaruk 11/13/1994 5’10 170 Medicine Hat Tigers 1
    10 D Rasmus Ristolainen 10/27/1994 6’3 210 TPS Turku -1
    11 D Nikita Zadorov 4/16/1995 6’4 225 London Knights 1
    12 D Ryan Pulock 10/6/1994 6’0 195 Brandon Wheat Kings -1
    13 F Adam Erne 4/20/1995 6’0 200 Quebec Remparts 0
    14 D Josh Morrissey 3/28/1995 6’0 185 Prince Albert Raiders 0
    15 F Max Domi 3/2/1995 5’9 185 London Knights 1
    16 F Curtis Lazar 2/2/1995 6’0 190 Edmonton Oil Kings

    Lot’s of D and small forwards ahead of Lazar. We know Stu likes Big D, rather than small D. There are some big D there.

    If the Oilers draft in the top 8, I doubt they pick Lazar, but if they slide out of the top eight, he is probably in the mix. The alternatives at that point are smallish scoring forwards, and an assortment of defensemen. I think Lazar is a very safe pick. With the high end talent the Oilers have already accumulated, a safe pick, a player with a non-stop motor who can play both ways, and move up and down the roster is an okay choice.

  51. TheOtherJohn says:

    Woodguy: Lazar is ranked 16th on that list and I suspect he moves uplittle once final rankings are released.

    Assume that if we select 5-8th that Oiler management will have significant reluctance to select a 4th forward from the Edm Oil Kings outside the consensus of where the scouting services have him. Particularly where none of Moroz, Ewanyk or Abney have outperformed their draft position

  52. godot10 says:

    TheOtherJohn: Assume that if we select 5-8th that Oiler management will have significant reluctance to select a 4th forward from the Edm Oil Kings outside the consensus of where the scouting services have him. Particularly wherenone ofMoroz, Ewanyk or Abney have outperformed their draft position

    Abney was not drafted out of the Oil Kings. Arguably, the Oil Kings traded for Abney to help facilitate his development.

  53. TheOtherJohn says:

    godot10: Abney was not drafted out of the Oil Kings. Arguably, the Oil Kings traded for Abney to help facilitate his development.

    Abney played a year and a half for OIl Kings after being drafted to help “develop” him

    Your comments on Moroz and Ewanyk

  54. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    On Zona’s list,
    8DDarnell Nurse2/4/19956’4185Soo Greyhounds0
    9FHunter Shinkaruk11/13/19945’10170Medicine Hat Tigers1
    10DRasmus Ristolainen10/27/19946’3210TPS Turku-1
    11DNikita Zadorov4/16/19956’4225London Knights1
    12DRyan Pulock10/6/19946’0195Brandon Wheat Kings-1
    13FAdam Erne4/20/19956’0200Quebec Remparts0
    14DJosh Morrissey3/28/19956’0185Prince Albert Raiders0
    15FMax Domi3/2/19955’9185London Knights1
    16FCurtis Lazar2/2/19956’0190Edmonton Oil Kings

    Lot’s of D and small forwards ahead of Lazar.We know Stu likes Big D, rather than small D.There are some big D there.

    If the Oilers draft in the top 8, I doubt they pick Lazar, but if they slide out of the top eight, he is probably in the mix.The alternatives at that point are smallish scoring forwards, and an assortment of defensemen.I think Lazar is a very safe pick.With the high end talent the Oilers have already accumulated, a safe pick, a player with a non-stop motor who can play both ways, and move up and down the roster is an okay choice.

    Agreed.

    If Zona’s list is accurate for the order of the top 15, I think the Oilers need to pick 7th or higher, or else they’ll take Lazar as I don’t think they take a Dman.

  55. Woodguy says:

    TheOtherJohn: Assume that if we select 5-8th that Oiler management will have significant reluctance to select a 4th forward from the Edm Oil Kings outside the consensus of where the scouting services have him. Particularly wherenone ofMoroz, Ewanyk or Abney have outperformed their draft position

    Based on what most of the scouting sites are saying about the talent levels, I highly doubt the Oilers reach past Monahan or Lindholm for Lazar, but I do think they pass on Shinkaruk for Lazar.

  56. FPB94 says:

    So the Oilers will make one of the worst decisions possible in this draft? Good.

    Lazar (38-23-61) 6”1 ahead of:

    Mantha (50-39-89) 6”4

    or

    Petan (47-73-120) 5”9

    or

    Rychel (40-47-87) 6”1

    Makes absolutely no fucking sense. Rychel and Mantha are lone stars on their team and simply trailing them. Mantha took them into the 2nd round of the playoffs. Rychel’s closest teamate has 55 points.

    God damn.

  57. godot10 says:

    FPB94:
    So the Oilers will make one of the worst decisions possible in this draft? Good.

    Lazar (38-23-61) 6”1 ahead of:

    Mantha (50-39-89) 6”4

    or

    Petan (47-73-120) 5”9

    or

    Rychel (40-47-87) 6”1

    Makes absolutely no fucking sense. Rychel and Mantha are lone stars on their team and simply trailing them. Mantha took them into the 2nd round of the playoffs. Rychel’s closest teamate has 55 points.

    God damn.

    Zona’s list is a consensus list of several of the top ranking services. Lazar is ahead of those guys on the consensus list.

    //The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie’s rankings carry the most weight as he’s the most accurate prognosticator in the group.//

    So the onus is on you to argue why the Oilers should go off-the-board, and reach for one of your recommendations, whom the consensus put out of the top half of the first round.

    If the Oilers select Lazar in the range that the consensus says he should be picked, what is wrong with that.

  58. gcw_rocks says:

    If I were the Oilers and taking a leap down the draft order, I think I would take Mantha or Gauthier (who is 6’4″ or 6’5″ not 6’1″) over Lazar.

  59. FPB94 says:

    godot10,

    Idk. ”consensus” takes in account the opinion of very terrible drafting organisations. ”consensus” has argued for awful picks over time. Of course the better guys will always be on top because it’s hard missing over and over again on guys who outscore their peers madly, and also the tip of the balance by good scouting teams.

    If I were told this was the combining ot Detroit, Montreal, etc draft board i’d be fine. But it also takes in the account of a guy like Button who failed to draft a single potent defenseman in over 10 years on the job.

    + Only 5 guys in the last 5 years scored 60 points in an NHL season while having equal or inferior scoring than Lazar in the CHL.

  60. godot10 says:

    So last year, people were arguing that the Oilers should take the consensus best player available, and not take a leap down the draft board.

    This year, when the consensus best player available will likely have Lazar right in the mix, the same people are arguing that the Oilers should take a leap down the draft board and not stick the with consensus best player available.

    Zona’s consensus list is not my list. Zona, certainly, is about the furthest thing away from being an Oilers’ mgmt puppet. So I doubt that he is stacking his list with the Oiler mgmt’s pet players.

    In Zona’s list, the guys just ahead of him are D, and smallish scoring forwards. Lazar looks to be a big more versatile Brad Marchand x Mike Peca type of player.

    If there is a legit 2nd line centre type there like Monahan or Lindholm, I doubt the Oilers take Lazar, but if the consensus list stays the way it does, picking Lazar 9th-12th is NOT a reach.

  61. FPB94 says:

    godot10,

    Even if people agreed Colton Gillies or Ben Eager were first round picks they were still a reach because they lacked scoring (as does Lazar)

    Oilers just burned their hand on selecting a bunch of guys with borderline scoring and some grit, and be damned if they’ll do it again.

  62. Ducey says:

    FPB94:
    So the Oilers will make one of the worst decisions possible in this draft? Good.

    Lazar (38-23-61) 6”1 ahead of:

    Mantha (50-39-89) 6”4

    or

    Petan (47-73-120) 5”9

    or

    Rychel (40-47-87) 6”1

    Makes absolutely no fucking sense. Rychel and Mantha are lone stars on their team and simply trailing them. Mantha took them into the 2nd round of the playoffs. Rychel’s closest teamate has 55 points.

    God damn.

    Brother. People sure have an enormous capacity to get worked up about things that have not happened and likely won’t. We don’t know where the Oilers will draft and there is much scouting to be done. The Oilers likely have no idea themselves right now.

    You would think people would have learned from the trading of Hemsky, and the drafting of Murray, both of which caused much angst, for no reason.

    In fact, in retrospect, it might have been a good idea to have traded Hemsky last year. His trade value has likely gone down.

  63. FPB94 says:

    For exemple:

    If you ignore Lucic, (whom is a once in generation event) i’l go trough each year to find a player who had 25 assists or less in his CHL draft year, and pluck the first one to appear in league leaders in scoring. (In a full season)

    12-11: Mike Fisher 51 points, N91 25 assists on draft year.
    11-10: Michael Grabner 50 points N 82 14 assists on draft year
    10-09: Brooks Laich 59 points N56 21 assists on draft year

    Most of them are careeer years and if you ask me that’s a pretty shitty ceiling for a N10 draft pick. Especially considering most of the rough, scoring guys i’ve seen were scorers in Junior (Dubinsky, Carter, Richards, Etc)

  64. godot10 says:

    Some people drafted in the top 11 recently who had more than 25 assists in their draft year.

    Scott Glennie, Kyle Beach, Zach Hamill, James Sheppard, Jack Skille (If you normalize his college season), Alexandre Picard. 1 bust per year.

    So 25 assists doesn’t guarantee anything.

  65. godot10 says:

    Brandon Sutter 71-20-37-57
    Curtis Lazar 72-38-23-61

    That Brandon Sutter sure was a terrible pick.

  66. Lois Lowe says:

    IIRC the Oilers really liked Glennie in his draft year, but when MPS fell they took him instead.

  67. RickDeckard says:

    godot10:
    picking Lazar 9th-12th is NOT a reach.

    Strongly disagree. Lazar inside the top 10 is a major reach. I’d take Ristolainen and Pulock before Lazar, RHD is the second biggest need in the prospect pool.

    Ducey: Brother.People sure have an enormous capacity to get worked up about things that have not happened and likely won’t.We don’t know where the Oilers will draft and there is much scouting to be done.The Oilers likely have no idea themselves right now.

    In fact, in retrospect, it might have been a good idea to have traded Hemsky last year.His trade value has likely gone down.

    Among players listed in the top 20 of that consensus list only 8 are still active and only 1 is currently ranked in the range that the Oilers will be picking (6-12). They should have their rankings pretty well locked in.

    As for trading Hemsky, they couldn’t have traded him at the deadline, they didn’t know they’d have Yakupov. That leaves trading him at the draft and I don’t think they would have got a great price for him then.

    Lois Lowe,

    Glennie was drafted 1 spot ahead of MPS. MPS was also ranked 10th by MacKenzie so he didn’t really fall.

  68. TheOtherJohn says:

    Brandon Sutter was selected 11th overall and is a low 30 point centre 3 years out

    Or were you suggesting that was Lazar’s ceiling?

  69. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    IIRC the Oilers really liked Glennie in his draft year, but when MPS fell they took him instead.

    Oilers really liked Glennie.

    DAL saved them from taking him by grabbing him right in front of them.

  70. denny33 says:

    godot10,

    Posted yesterday, Mackenzie has Lazar at #25 -mid season one.

    Craig Button him at #28 – April

    Central Scouting has him at #26-mid term one

    Lazar could definitely move up in the latest update -not sure he moves up to #9

    Regional bias – what regional bias?

  71. FPB94 says:

    godot10,

    If you countered the arguement with a stat that proved that it’s equal chances i’d clap. But you just mentionned guys with more points sometime busts out.

    So… because of that we should take a guy with a low ceiling?

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