FLAMES AT OILERS G35 (12-13) 1.4.13 (SMID SIGNS!)

Saturday night was one of those nights we’ll remember for a long while–winning a big game against a superior opponent is a tough assignment–but tonight’s game is just as important. The Calgary Flames may be minus Jarome Iginla but that doesn’t mean they’ll lay down for the upstart Oilers. It is–as they say–a huge game at Rexall tonight.

CALGARY IS SIN CITY

Jim Matheson got the story yesterday–all of it. A very good article in the EJ laid it all out for Oiler fans in regard to Laddy Smid and contract.

  • Smid: “I’d like a five years, around that term. Yeah five years at $3.5 million (a season), that would be nice. I’d be more than happy with that. Obviously you look around and see what other guys are making. I do think we’re getting closer (to a deal).  Negotiations are pretty good right now. We have three days left and I’m really hopeful  we’ll get a deal done. Obviously we have to have something done by Wednesday. I would hate to be traded.  We have a great thing going on now and I’d hate to leave.”

I’ve been hard on Smid over the years, he learned on the job at the NHL level and that wasn’t fair to him or the fanbase. However, if he’s willing to sign that contract then Oiler fans like me should understand it for what it is–a substantial reduction in what he could get on the free market and a massive gesture to the Oilers and the fanbase. I don’t think we can see it any other way.

UPDATE: Oilers just tweeted out a 4-year deal at $3.5M a season. Great contract.

CALGARY IS FULL OF LOLLYGAGGERS

Oilers called up Anton Lander, but he won’t play tonight. He’s here as insurance.

  • Krueger: “Bringing up another player puts pressure on people, keeps the other 12 forwards honest. He’s a versatile player, a good depth player. He can move up and down the lineup. The six points he had (Saturday) doesn’t hurt.”

Oilers have a 23.8% chance of making the playoffs this morning, and a win tonight puts them into the “real chance” to make the post-season category. What’s more they are on track with reasonable expectations at this time:

2012-13 PROJECTION (48 GAMES)

  • TOTAL GOALS FOR: 131
  • TOTAL GOALS AGAINST: 138 (including 7 EN goals)
  • GOALS PER GAME AVERAGE: 2.73 (2.52 last season)
  • GOALS AGAINST PER GAME AVERAGE: 2.88 (2.83 last season)

2012-13 ACTUAL (34 games)

  • TOTAL GOALS FOR: 85
  • TOTAL GOALS AGAINST: 92
  • GOALS PER GAME AVERAGE: 2.50 (2.52 last season)
  • GOALS AGAINST PER GAME AVERAGE: 2.71 (2.83 last season)

Minus 7 projected, minus 7 in fact after 34 games. It’s been a crazy year, but the Oilers are finally scoring at reasonable levels 5×5, and they also boast the 4th best powerplay and 7th best penalty kill.

5×5/60 (FORWARDS)

  1. Taylor Hall 2.94
  2. Sam Gagner 2.16
  3. Jordan Eberle 1.89
  4. Ales Hemsky 1.59
  5. Shawn Horcoff 1.52
  6. Nail Yakupov 1.39
  7. Magnus Paajarvi 1.39
  8. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.29
  9. Lennart Petrell 1.22

Hall’s number is tied for 10th in the NHL among regulars, and 3rd among western conference players who have been in 20 games or more (he trails Matt Cullen and Jonathan Toews). Hall–at 21–is ripping up the toughest hockey conference on the planet 5×5. Coach Krueger has him getting supreme zone starts and the qual comp suggests Hall is getting a push there too, with the result being some quality  even strength scoring. That’s a nice number for Samwise, too.

CALGARY IS NOT HELL, BUT YOU CAN SEE IT FROM THERE!

“With the 83/84 season, the Oilers revolution in playing style began to make its influence felt on the league. The tight defensive style of the Islanders, depending on big players and clutch-and-grab tactics to slow opponents down, was proving ineffective against the Oilers as teams tried to hold them in check. Sather had emphasized speed and finesse in building the team, and the Oilers could not be stopped by trying to stand up to them at the blue line, or clogging the neutral zone. They played a creative, high tempo passing game that took the action aggressively to opponents. Five up was how the style came to be described, Oiler forwards were on top of opponents defensemen and the Oilers defensemen moved up to engage the forwards. “

Douglas Hunter, the Glory Barons.

gyj.jpg

This is a huge game, ladies and gents. Tonight, the Edmonton Oilers can win and move into a playoff spot as we head toward the deadline. The Oilers could add–Streit, Glencross, a center–and could subtract too. It may be wise to do both–but first they must win tonight to give themselves the very best chance available to them.

Godspeed, young men. Thanks so much for giving us something real to cheer for, after so many, many days, months and years of losses. After a generation on gravel, you’ve finally reached the blacktop.

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628 Responses to "FLAMES AT OILERS G35 (12-13) 1.4.13 (SMID SIGNS!)"

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  1. striatic says:

    Flames don’t seem to realize when they are playing 4 on 4.

  2. jp says:

    Wow. Confidence is a wonderful thing (Re: Paajarvi). That kid’s a keeper.

  3. hunter1909 says:

    Pajaarvi = Peter Mahovilich.

    Someone please ask Black Dog for confirmation. :P

    Or Bruce, who knows everything imaginable.

  4. delooper says:

    The tears of Flames fans are warm and comforting.

  5. Ducey says:

    Jones playing like someone who doesn’t want to be traded. Ironically it will just increase his trade value.

  6. hunter1909 says:

    delooper,

    Those aren’t tears. They’re pissing themselves and it’s running down their legs.

  7. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Pajaarvi = Peter Mahovilich.

    Someone please ask Black Dog for confirmation. :P

    Or Bruce, who knows everything imaginable.

    Pete Mahovlich was massive, incredible reach. Paajarvi would lap him, however.

  8. VanOil says:

    delooper:
    The tears of Flames fans are warm and comforting.

    I was wondering what that warming sensation was caused by.

  9. Bulging Twine says:

    Wonder if Smid will have to answer for that?

  10. hunter1909 says:

    The weather does terrible things to Edmonton women.

  11. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide,

    Yeah but he glides like the little M. Both look clumsy, imo.

    Maybe I’m thinking about someone else. Glenn Anderson maybe, with the way he liked skating into everyone when he played chicken(always).

    There’s something old timey about Pajaarvi.

  12. delooper says:

    The Oilers need to keep scoring! Only after unconditional surrender should they let off the gas.

  13. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy: Wow.

    2nd best Fenclose and the 2nd worst goaltending and Halak goes down. Ouch.

    Here’s the bottom 5 in team SV% this year

    Philadelphia0.892
    NY Islanders0.890
    Florida0.889
    St. Louis0.884
    Calgary0.882

    WIth a goalie NYI are in the playoffs, STL for sure, mabye even CAL, instead they’re a joke.

    The more I look at fancy stats the more I think “goaltending is everything”

    I think you need to explore the possibility that the quality of the team directly effect the save percentage.

    Out side one and done versus pass pass pass blast and blast again and a third chancer or two will make Pat Roy look like Craig Billington.

  14. VanOil says:

    Ducey:
    Jones playing like someone who doesn’t want to be traded.Ironically it will just increase his trade value.

    My biggest problem with Jones right now is Yak being on a line with him. Every game Yak is with him sets back his development. My current trade deadline dream is Yak getting to play with players of at least Horcoff and Smyths caliber for the rest of the year. In a very brave prediction no one we trade for will be as good as Yak is now and won’t be able to hold his jock strap in a couple years or even after one summer of coaching.

  15. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Yakupov did everything right in his own zone 4 on 4 there.Very nice.

    He’s come a long way quickly.

    His edge work can be up there with 4-93-14 too.

    He’s gonna be fun to watch for a long time.

  16. BlacqueJacque says:

    Normally at this point in an Oilers-Flames tilt with this score I’d point everyone over to CalgaryPuck, but it’s over. They’re dispirited, broken, and depressing to read. No agony, no angst, just defeat and surrender in those posts.

    Like the eyes of German soldiers at Stalingrad.

  17. hunter1909 says:

    Dubnyk could be called “The Chesterfield” – because he looks like those old chesterfields every basement seems to have, and gets hammered by everything there is.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Mike Brown is a chance machine.

  19. Woodguy says:

    4-93-14 have magnet sticks

  20. hunter1909 says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Normally at this point in an Oilers-Flames tilt with this score I’d point everyone over to CalgaryPuck, but it’s over.They’re dispirited, broken, and depressing to read.No agony, no angst, just defeat and surrender in those posts.

    Like the eyes of German soldiers at Stalingrad.

    lol

  21. delooper says:

    More gas!! Gas1!

  22. striatic says:

    Edmonton’s forecheck has been awesome this game.

  23. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: He’s come a long way quickly.

    His edge work can be up there with 4-93-14 too.

    He’s gonna be fun to watch for a long time.

    Both 64 and 14 are ungodly Toller Cranston good.

  24. spoiler says:

    ok maybe Kurt Browning would have been a better comp.

  25. striatic says:

    BlacqueJacque: Like the eyes of German soldiers at Stalingrad.

    tears.

  26. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Lowetide,

    Yeah but he glides like the little M. Both look clumsy, imo.

    Maybe I’m thinking about someone else. Glenn Anderson maybe, with the way he liked skating into everyone when he played chicken(always).

    There’s something old timey about Pajaarvi.

    I got you, yeah. Mahovlich would rather go through you–his signature move was “splitting the D” which really meant the D would come together and crash into him as he drove to the net, and then he’d use his incredible reach to find the puck and get a chance on goal.

    Unique player.

  27. hunter1909 says:

    Colin Farrell plays for the Flames?

  28. delooper says:

    The Oilers look like a real hockey team tonight. I don’t know if it’s them or the Flames doing that, but whatever it is, thank you/it/whatever.

  29. Zelepukin says:

    that off wing wrister by Yaks was insane given how fast he released it, while in stride and from just inside the blueline. If he doesn’t score 50 in the next couple years, I’ll be surprised.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    I’ll bet the Flames avoid the breakfast buffet when Feaster’s travelling with them.

  31. spoiler says:

    Thought we were going to get Stempniaked there.

  32. Henry says:

    Is Petrell’s idea of making a pass just to hit it off the boards softer?

  33. SK Oiler Fan says:

    The Flames D looks quite solid. Their forwards may never score again though

  34. GordM says:

    Eberle makes those slight pauses to change angles on shots against both the defender and the goaltender is a thing of beauty. Seems so simple…but so very few do it well. Here’s the list:

    1. Stan Weir
    1a. Jordan Eberle

    that is all

  35. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide:
    Mike Brown is a chance machine.

    He’s the best 13/14 F we’ve had in so very long.

    The sad truth.

  36. jake70 says:

    Ok, in the last 11 periods, Oilers outscoring opposition 16-4. What year is this?

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    brown has somehow played more than eberle.

    RK appears to be rolling his forward lines pretty evenly… bizarre.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/boxscore.htm?id=2012020529

  38. Lowetide says:

    Dennis King ‏@DKingBH 26s

    2nd period chances: 7-4; after 40 min: 10-10

  39. VanOil says:

    hunter1909:
    I’ll bet the Flames avoid the breakfast buffet when Feaster’s travelling with them.

    This is pilling on. Well done.

  40. BlacqueJacque says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Not the first time.

    The ice time has become a lot more even in recent weeks. Fatigue? So hard to tell.

  41. Yakupov me says:

    After 40 minutes in a game without any PKs, Petrell leads all forwards in TOI……it blows my mind.

  42. RexLibris says:

    The conditions on that Bouwmeester trade have made me a fan of every other team chasing St. Louis. Delaying the 1st round pick until 2014 would be one more kick in the cajones for the Flames.

  43. Genjutsu says:

    The kids man. The kid.

  44. Ribs says:

    Man is it nice to see the dump and chase.

    I must have missed it…Did something happen to Horcoff?

  45. Woodguy says:

    Genjutsu: I think you need to explore the possibility that the quality of the team directly effect the save percentage.

    Out side one and done versus pass pass pass blast and blast again and a third chancer or two will make Pat Roy look like Craig Billington.

    Its been explored by many smarter than me.

    Team effects on 5v5 SV% are not huge.

    They exists, but so small they look like noise.

    Goalies stop pucks.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Not the first time.

    The ice time has become a lot more even in recent weeks.Fatigue?So hard to tell.

    well… he hasn’t gotten burned yet… tonight that is. and (again tonight) you could i guess say “hey, it’s Calgary… save the juice in the tank”…

  47. GordM says:

    Sportsnet calling that collection of dolts the “strategy room” is either the best April Fool’s joke of the day or the biggest oxymoron out there.

  48. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ribs:
    Man is it nice to see the dump and chase.

    I must have missed it…Did something happen to Horcoff?

    looks like he’s taking regular shifts:

    http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/TH020529.HTM

  49. hunter1909 says:

    Just got back from CP – They’re excellent hockey fans there – and not one of them has said Oiler’s are missing the playoffs, aside from one who was praying for Oiler’s to finish in 9th.

    Everyone else understands the new reality.

    Good on them getting 3 first round picks. Hope to see them back competing, say, by 2021.

  50. Ducey says:

    Can’t say the Flems did well in the JBo trade either. A 5’9″defenseman and a 26 yr old goalie? I get that they got a first round pick, but they might as well told St Louis just to keep those guys.

  51. striatic says:

    Yakupov me: After 40 minutes in a game without any PKs, Petrell leads all forwards in TOI……it blows my mind.

    showcase?

  52. hunter1909 says:

    Re Tambo: Did he look pissed or what!? The mofo reads these blogs!!

  53. delooper says:

    Hall said nothing about the tears of the Calgary Flames. He must be tired.

  54. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy: Its been explored by many smarter than me.

    Team effects on 5v5 SV% are not huge.

    They exists, but so small they look like noise.

    Goalies stop pucks.

    Its a problem though as the data collection has been flawed and I do question just how smart some of these experts are. If you can recall from whatever level you played at teams play different with a competent goalie and vice-versa.

  55. hunter1909 says:

    Congrats Lowetide and other evil minded Oiler bloggers + posters.

    For the first time in history, an NHL general manager’s been directly subjected to fan abuse, lol.

    He’s reading this, and getting madder and madder. Then he does his job better.

  56. hunter1909 says:

    Anyone else worried about Gagner? He hasn’t had a point in 2-3 games.

    Sam had better be reasonable – otherwise Tambellini’s going to trade him to Calgary.

  57. spoiler says:

    Much better period. Almost even in the Corsi battle now and shots are dead even. Still getting destroyed in the face off circle. Jones with the least ice time, which is right to my eye, despite his 2 shots and 3 hits. Krueger showing some confidence in 13, giving him more TOI than either Schultz, but that might be score effect.

    Doobie has been outstanding. Very calm cool and collected to my eye.

  58. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy,

    Don’t forget all these new data collections and advanced stats are in their infancy and will become better and more correct with time.

    And not to get me wrong I agree with you most of the time but sometimes I think maybe you are looking at the numbers out of context of actually watching the games.

  59. Ribs says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: looks like he’s taking regular shifts:

    http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/TH020529.HTM

    I guess it’s like you pointed out earlier in the thread then, Krueger is just rolling the lines. It just seems weird that Smyth has been taking some draws that Horcoff is usually put in for. Horcoff’s at 22% right now so maybe he’s just having an off night.

    Schultz Junior takes the lead in the rookie defencemen scoring race :)

  60. hunter1909 says:

    I love Dubnyk.

    I have to start saying nice things about Horcoff soon – I might as well start practising.

    Horcoff’s really leading the team well, for Tambellini.

  61. hunter1909 says:

    I want to wake up tomorrow and be Ralph Kreuger.

  62. SK Oiler Fan says:

    This Mcdonald doesn’t look too bad. Didn’t he have a decent run with NYI once upon a time?

  63. Ducey says:

    GordM:
    Sportsnet calling that collection of dolts the “strategy room” is either the best April Fool’s joke of the day or the biggest oxymoron out there.

    They didn’t say it was good strategy.

    Anyone else ask themselves why Sportsnet is showing a close up of MPS only to realize they are advertising Milos Ranic (sp?) and the Davis Cup?

  64. Rebilled says:

    I heard they’re thinking of making Tanguay the next Horseheads captain.

  65. hunter1909 says:

    Rebilled: I heard they’re thinking of making Tanguay the next Horseheads captain.

    That scene from The Godfather?

    Justin Schultz’s goal was a beauty – the guy is all class.

  66. spoiler says:

    Slick slick slick

  67. Lowetide says:

    Nuge must have done something to the Hockey Gods.

  68. hunter1909 says:

    Feaster’s considering going after Dany Heatly this summer.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Yakupov is going to score eleventy goals one night.

  70. spoiler says:

    Quinn, sorry, but Jones will never be where Yakupov needs him to be.

  71. hunter1909 says:

    When Oiler’s have a 4th line like this, I’m always happy as can be.

  72. striatic says:

    SK Oiler Fan: This Mcdonald doesn’t look too bad. Didn’t he have a decent run with NYI once upon a time?

    he played an excellent game against Edmonton last year while with Detroit.

    Howard was injured and Edmonton chased Conklin early.

  73. Smarmy says:

    Lowetide:
    Nuge must have done something to the Hockey Gods.

    The Gods one true anointed son must pay his tribulations before he wears his crown.

  74. Woodguy says:

    Genjutsu: Its a problem though as the data collection has been flawed and I do question just how smart some of these experts are.If you can recall from whatever level you played at teams play different with a competent goalie and vice-versa.

    2 things.

    1) Explain how the data is flawed

    2) Explain STL having the same coach, team, players, system being 1st in the NHL in SV% last year and 2nd worst this year.

  75. spoiler says:

    Can’t remember the old Paajarvi being too aggressive.

  76. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy,

    Relax. Pour yourself an Irish.

  77. Rebilled says:

    hunter1909,

    Feaster is going to sign NK to a five year $25 million deal at the deadline.

  78. hunter1909 says:

    spoiler,

    He’s bored! :)

  79. hunter1909 says:

    Time for the gazelle’s power play.

  80. hunter1909 says:

    WTF is going on!?

    The Oilers!?

  81. Chris says:

    These last couple Oilers games remind me of the last time it was fun to be an Oilers fan back in 2005-2006. Welcome to the desert Flames fans, we saved you a camel.

  82. hunter1909 says:

    These guys are good.

  83. GordM says:

    OK OK…Calgary “Power Play” replaces Sportsnet “Strategy Room” as the best April Fools joke or Oxymoron.

  84. hunter1909 says:

    Chris:
    These last couple Oilers games remind me of the last time it was fun to be an Oilers fan back in 2005-2006. Welcome to the desert Flames fans, we saved you a camel.

    More like a dried fish.

  85. Rebilled says:

    An Oilers Space Moose jersey should be in the works for next year.

  86. spoiler says:

    Yak absolutely owned that whole shift. He’s an absolute beauty.

  87. jp says:

    Pump and Dump!!! (Jones, not Yak).

    Nice shot by the kid though!

  88. BlacqueJacque says:

    Yakketty! Great play to enter the zone, too.

    God this team is going to be so good.

  89. FPB94 says:

    I like hanging around here but you guys get weird when they beat the Flames.

  90. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s one. How many more to eleventy?

  91. Smarmy says:

    Yakky with the Tsar Bomba

  92. VanOil says:

    That will not be the last time Yak will simply put it through the goalie.

  93. SK Oiler Fan says:

    That.s a hell of a release. Nice little pass by Jones as well

  94. Lowetide says:

    Yak City!

  95. hunter1909 says:

    This is where everyone feels sorry, for the little gazelle.

    Giordano does a great little gazelle.

  96. striatic says:

    Yak powered that shot right right through MacDonald.

    i think a non-Yakupovian velocity wouldn’t have been sufficient.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Genjutsu:
    Woodguy,

    Don’t forget all these new data collections and advanced stats are in their infancy and will become better and more correct with time.

    And not to get me wrong I agree with you most of the time but sometimes I think maybe you are looking at the numbers out of context of actually watching the games.

    Save percentage is not new data collection

  98. Smarmy says:

    Forget Bouw. Giordano is the guy you want.

  99. VanOil says:

    striatic,

    Yakupovian. Love it.

  100. crude says:

    Forget Tamby, Jonesy is the one who reads this blog, and HE’s pissed.

    Yak!

  101. hunter1909 says:

    Yak’s turned Jones into a scorer. I always liked Jones, and if they keep him I know Lowetide and many others will be pissed.

  102. hunter1909 says:

    VanOil,

    Yes!

  103. FPB94 says:

    hunter1909,

    I like the Chaos he brings. And he’s a likeable guy.

  104. crude says:

    FPB94:
    I like hanging around here but you guys get weird when they beat the Flames.

    Right? This is a weird one.

  105. Henry says:

    Smarmy:
    Forget Bouw. Giordano is the guy you want.

    You are right about that. Probably the last guy Calgary would trade to the Oilers.

  106. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy: 2 things.

    1) Explain how the data is flawed

    2) Explain STL having the same coach, team, players, system being 1st in the NHL in SV% last year and 2nd worst this year.

    1 Show me one instance where accounts are made for injury.

    2 Injuries.

  107. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    That will not be the last time Yak will simply put it through the goalie.

    That’s exactly what I was thinking too.

    You can’t see the puck leave his stick pretty much ever.

  108. Lowetide says:

    What in Christ is Yakupov doing here?

  109. hunter1909 says:

    The Bitch Slapping of Alberta.

  110. spoiler says:

    I’d be happy with Brodie. But no way does Feaster trade with the Oil.

  111. jp says:

    Wow Yak with that work down low.

  112. Genjutsu says:

    Yak City!

  113. hunter1909 says:

    LOL only people from Edmonton want to go to Mexico in April.

  114. Suntory Hanzo says:

    My feed went to shite right before Yakupov scored.

    On a rating of 1-10 using old Car Wars weapons
    1 meaning hand pistol, 5 meaning machine gun, and 10 meaning Gauss gun. Where would it lie?

  115. striatic says:

    hunter1909: Yak’s turned Jones into a scorer. I always liked Jones, and if they keep him I know Lowetide and many others will be pissed.

    i’ve been an advocate for Jones in the past, but i think moving him now wouldn’t be a bad idea.

    as much as Jones is useful, shoring up defense would be more so.

  116. hunter1909 says:

    Who’s the colour guy? He’s great.

  117. pboy says:

    Getting Yak City and Schultz the Younger back into the goal column tonight is almost as important as #4 going supernova. Dubnyk is playing really well again, as well.

    Fwiw, I would still look at trading Khabi, Jones and Belanger at the deadline but I would keep Whitney for the playoff run. I would try to get Jussi Jokinen for Eager as well.

  118. squeezboks says:

    Gotta love Yak. When he learns to skate with his stick on the ice, he is gonna be a force. Looks like he’s got a pitchfork out there. Lol.

  119. skinny65 says:

    Is Hemsky hurt?

  120. Woodguy says:

    Genjutsu: 1 Show me one instance where accounts are made for injury.

    2 Injuries.

    Injuries can certainly influence whetther a hockey player is playig well.

    Please answer the two questions.

    Also,

    Is Hemksy hurt?

    Haven’t seen him at all for a while.

  121. spoiler says:

    All right who the fuck said “shutout”?

    Nice puck drop there by the linesman.

  122. hunter1909 says:

    Flames: “We can build on this”.

  123. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Travis-Yost/Ben-Bishop-on-the-Move/134/50506

    Travis Yost with a piece up about a lot of interest in Ben Bishop recently-not sure if the price will be better in the summer..??,,,or is this something you move on now if there is a deal there..?

  124. Smarmy says:

    Really running Smytty and then throwing punches?

  125. hunter1909 says:

    Captain Horcoff using his NHLPA skills as he chats up the idk who through the little round hole in the glass.

  126. Ducey says:

    Brown skated right past McGratton after he nailed Smyth. Is Ben Eager a coach now?

  127. delooper says:

    Well. That’s that.

  128. delooper says:

    Suck it, Calgary.

  129. unca miltie says:

    Woodguy: Injuries can certainly influence whetther a hockey player is playig well.

    Please answer the two questions.

    Also,

    Is Hemksy hurt?

    Haven’t seen him at all for a while.

    I too wonder where hemmer is? hurt or traded??

  130. Lowetide says:

    Dennis King ‏@DKingBH 28s

    Final chance total: 15-16; 0-1 ST

  131. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy,

    I did I thought I did but okay if you want more. A good chunk of data collection and analysis has been done by guys who are not real statisticians. Everything that man does is flawed by definition.

    2 Luck and injuries man.

  132. "Steve Smith" says:

    Genjutsu:
    Woodguy,

    I did I thought I did but okay if you want more.A good chunk of data collection and analysis has been done by guys who are not real statisticians.Everything that man does is flawed by definition.

    A non-statistician dividing a goalie’s saves by the number of shots against him is “flawed by definition”? Do tell.

    9/11 was not an inside job, you conspiratorial loon.

  133. Smarmy says:

    “Steve Smith”: A non-statistician dividing a goalie’s saves by the number of shots against him is “flawed by definition”?Do tell.

    9/11 was not an inside job, you conspiratorial loon.

    Have to agree. I have more complex stats in my workplace beer pong league.

  134. asiaoil says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Travis-Yost/Ben-Bishop-on-the-Move/134/50506

    Travis Yost with a piece up about a lot of interest in Ben Bishop recently-not sure if the price will be better in the summer..??,,,or is this something you move on now if there is a deal there..?

    Honestly a backup is the last thing we need to be concerned about now. Aside from the B2B later this week – we don’t need a backup start until the last week of the season. So it’s a waste of time and effort until the summer. Unless someone wants to give us at least a 3rd for Bulin – you keep him and hope he can go nuts for another game or two like he did against STL last week. Just don’t start him two in a row. VAN is going to be mad as hornets on Thursday so feed Khabi to the wolves and save DD for LAK and ANA. Another real dman would make a big difference to the top 4 and push Schulz the elder into the 3rd pair which would really help there as well.

  135. "Steve Smith" says:

    Genjutsu:
    Woodguy,
    2 Luck and injuries man.

    Wait, aren’t you the one arguing that save percentage variation isn’t luck, but is rather based on the play of the team in front of the goalie?

  136. BlacqueJacque says:

    Ducey:
    Brown skated right past McGratton after he nailed Smyth.Is Ben Eager a coach now?

    That’s… that’s asking a lot out of Brown. Like 5 inches, 30lbs much.

  137. icecastles says:

    Wait Anaheim has a goalie named Faust? I think I’m starting to understand why they’re doing so well this season.

    I’m trying to find Krueger’s book. Not on amazon.ca, not on amazon.com and bookfinder.com can’t locate a copy. Any thoughts? Oilers Store at Rexall should carry it. :)

  138. spoiler says:

    Sharks beating the Nucks. That doesn”t help us much.

  139. BlacqueJacque says:

    Anybody else concerned that after chasing goaltenders in two straight games, the offense dried up a bit?

  140. striatic says:

    spoiler: Sharks beating the Nucks. That doesn”t help us much.

    it is going to come down to a game of chicken with the Blues.

    first team to blink, loses.

  141. "Steve Smith" says:

    striatic,

    Well, blinking time’s up Wednesday, as I understand it. There’s a pretty good chance that neither will have done so by then (and it seems to be, based on the Bouwmeester trade, that St. Louis has already decided not to). And even if Edmonton blinks, I don’t see it having a meaningful impact on their playoff chances, now that Smid’s signed.

  142. spoiler says:

    Doobs, Schultz, Hall with the 3 stars. Spector obviously not involved or Jones would have had a star for sure.

  143. Genjutsu says:

    “Steve Smith”: Wait, aren’t you the one arguing that save percentage variation isn’t luck, but is rather based on the play of the team in front of the goalie?

    I think its combination of things there though I confess to having only seen a few games but I know that they have a had some serious problems on the blue line. This will affect any goalies save % not having competent people for blue.

    Its pretty obvious to them team what the problem is as they are adding Ds not Gs.

  144. BlacqueJacque says:

    spoiler:
    Sharks beating the Nucks.That doesn”t help us much.

    We’re not catching the Sharks, but St. Louis is a winged bird. Bad goaltending just got made worse with the loss of Halak.

  145. Gerta Rauss says:

    icecastles: Wait Anaheim has a goalie named Faust? I think I’m starting to understand why they’re doing so well this season. I’m trying to find Krueger’s book. Not on amazon.ca, not on amazon.com and bookfinder.com can’t locate a copy. Any thoughts? Oilers Store at Rexall should carry it.

    How is your German..? I can’t find it in English.

    http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?an=ralph+krueger&bi=0&bx=off&ds=30&recentlyadded=all&sortby=17&sts=t&tn=teamlife&x=107&y=12

  146. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Sharks beating the Nucks.That doesn”t help us much.

    How far back are we from Van and Minny?

  147. striatic says:

    BlacqueJacque: Anybody else concerned that after chasing goaltenders in two straight games, the offense dried up a bit?

    so long as the defense is holding and Oilers aren’t running around in their own end, i’m fine with it.

  148. Zelepukin says:

    Schultzy 5 points off of rookie lead. I think he can do it.

  149. commonfan14 says:

    Heard Feaster talking about how the J-Bo market was limited by his contract. Too bad for him he couldn’t agree to keep a bunch of the salary in the trade since the Flames will be so tight to the cap next year…

  150. striatic says:

    Lowetide: How far back are we from Van and Minny?

    not close enough.

  151. Genjutsu says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Sorry sometimes I forget how many people here are smarter than the average NHL GM.

    My bad.

  152. icecastles says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    For this, I will learn. Thanks!

  153. Woodguy says:

    Genjutsu:
    Woodguy,

    I did I thought I did but okay if you want more.A good chunk of data collection and analysis has been done by guys who are not real statisticians.Everything that man does is flawed by definition.

    2 Luck and injuries man.

    The data is taken from NHL game sheets.

    Its shots.

    And goals.

  154. Gerta Rauss says:

    asiaoil,

    I’m just kicking tires re: backup goalie. I agree it’s not a priority but we have to deal with the position between now and July. I’d prefer to not spend any (significant) assets at the dealine but I could get behind a Bishop in/Khabi out type of deal if it was reasonable.

  155. "Steve Smith" says:

    Genjutsu,

    I’m not talking about the Blues; I’m talking about the NHL as a whole.

    The guys who have done this analysis have shown their work. Find the problems with it (or, if you’re not a “real statistician”, find one who has identified problems in this work). Causation’s notoriously difficult to prove, but correlation’s objectively measurable, and it shows that there’s very little between a skater’s on-ice save percentage from year to year. Absence of correlation is a pretty strong indicator of absence of causation, unless you can point to how injury is systematically cancelling out the correlation that would otherwise exist.

    And again, “luck” is exactly what Woodguy et al are saying the shift is attributable to. You’re arguing that they’re wrong, or so I understood.

  156. spoiler says:

    striatic: it is going to come down to a game of chicken with the Blues.

    first team to blink, loses.

    I think Detroit is a possiblity to drop too. But it’s going to be tough.

  157. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    icecastles:
    Wait Anaheim has a goalie named Faust? I think I’m starting to understand why they’re doing so well this season.

    I’m trying to find Krueger’s book. Not on amazon.ca, not on amazon.com and bookfinder.com can’t locate a copy. Any thoughts? Oilers Store at Rexall should carry it.

    I believe it’s Fasth.

    and the book isn’t translated. you can find it in german via amazon.de

    http://www.amazon.de/Teamlife-Über-Niederlagen-zum-Erfolg/dp/3832308806

    or check out his website:

    http://www.teamlife.ch/index.php

  158. "Steve Smith" says:

    Genjutsu:
    “Steve Smith”,

    Sorry sometimes I forget how many people here are smarter than the average NHL GM.

    My bad.

    I hadn’t realized that that NHL GMs agreed with you; feel free to point out the part where they do.

    (When appealing to authority, try to pick one that supports your argument.)

  159. Lowetide says:

    Tom Gazzola ‏@TomGazzola 8s

    Krueger says 83′s got a nagging injury. Didn’t want to divulge any details. RT @solo1138 what happened to Hemsky at the end of the game?

  160. asiaoil says:

    Lowetide: How far back are we from Van and Minny?

    I just can’t see us getting by STL, DET or SJS looking at the schedules – but call me crazy – VAN is staggering and they are going on a 5 game road trip starting on the 10th and finish with DET, CHI, MIN and us at home. If we are within 4 or 5 points of them by the time they go on the road it could get interesting. But honestly the boys are in tough – only 2-3 more wins earlier in the season and they likely make it. Tamblowmac sitting on their god damn hands while Horc was injured killed their chances.

  161. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Tom Gazzola ‏@TomGazzola 8s

    Krueger says 83′s got a nagging injury. Didn’t want to divulge any details. RT @solo1138 what happened to Hemsky at the end of the game?

    silver lining?

    they can’t/won’t trade him now?

  162. asiaoil says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    asiaoil,

    I’m just kicking tires re: backup goalie. I agree it’s not a priority but we have to deal with the position between now and July. I’d prefer to not spend any (significant) assets at the dealine but I could get behind a Bishop in/Khabi out type of deal if it was reasonable.

    Oh sure I agree – but our mgmt team can’t chew gum and walk at the same time so multi-tasking a goalie deal while trying to clear out some bottom-end expiring contracts and acquire a real dman seems a stretch :)

  163. "Steve Smith" says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Genjutsu, Causation’s notoriously difficult to prove, but correlation’s objectively measurable, and it shows that there’s very little between a skater’s on-ice save percentage from year to year.

    To clarify, I mean that there’s very little correlation between a skater’s on-ice save percentage as compared to the on-ice save percentages of his teammates.

  164. BlacqueJacque says:

    asiaoil: I just can’t see us getting by STL, DET or SJS looking at the schedules – but call me crazy – VAN is staggering and they are going on a 5 game road trip starting on the 10th and finish with DET, CHI, MIN and us at home. If we are within 4 or 5 points of them by the time they go on the road it could get interesting. But honestly the boys are in tough – only 2-3 more wins earlier in the season and they likely make it. Tamblowmac sitting on their god damn hands while Horc was injured killed their chances.

    The Blues couldn’t get .890 goaltending before losing Halak tonight.

    Unless Jay Bouwmeester is some sort of critical playoff run crunch time specialist (and history suggests the complete opposite), the Blues are in real danger of falling out of the playoff race.

  165. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: How far back are we from Van and Minny?

    Big jump. 7 points with no games in hand. Have to win 4 more games than either team or tie the Nucks and win on head to head record. Possible but very unlikely. Have to finish 10-2-2 or 11-3-0 to have a significant chance.

    Has to be Blues or Wings or Sharks.

  166. fuzzy muppet says:

    This is almost the worst case scenario for the OIlers at the deadline.

    St. Louis just became a better team without losing a single roster player and SJ is still clear by a decent margin.

    I think they HAVE to sell because buying may not do them a damn bit of good.

  167. hunter1909 says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    This is where “Steve Smith” shines.

    Nothing particular about hockey, in a hockey forum.

  168. Woodguy says:

    Great Yak quote from the Oilers twitter feed:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 15m
    “It was a good night for me. I’m feeling way better about my game. I like playing with my captain and Jonesy.” – Yakupov, 2 pts tonight

    Oh Kaptain my Kaptain!

  169. "Steve Smith" says:

    hunter1909:
    “Steve Smith”,

    This is where “Steve Smith” shines.

    I don’t know, I’m pretty good with the ol’ ad hominem, too.

    Nothing particular about hockey, in a hockey forum.

    Um, how is this not about hockey? We’re talking about skaters’ impact on on-ice save percentage.

  170. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I believe it’s Fasth.

    and the book isn’t translated. you can find it in german via amazon.de

    http://www.amazon.de/Teamlife-Über-Niederlagen-zum-Erfolg/dp/3832308806

    or check out his website:

    http://www.teamlife.ch/index.php

    Judging by the “Wait” and past posting excellence, I’d say IC was joking on the Faust thing.

  171. Zelepukin says:

    New Oilers prospect Kale Kessy has a hat-trick tonight for Kamloops as they lead Victoria 6-2. It’s his 2nd hat-trick of the series.— Cody Nickolet (@WHLFromAbove) April 2, 2013

    everythings coming up Oilers.

  172. Genjutsu says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Woodguy,

    I wasn’t talking about save % data.

    I took issue with Woodguy saying “its shitty goaltendings fault”. I said luck not him.

    The studies he referred to take no account of injury. So they are flawed, like us all. I didn’t say they were all wrong just flawed.

    You both LOVE to argue :)

  173. Gerta Rauss says:

    This is the part where Hunter turns into the little gazelle…

  174. "Steve Smith" says:

    Genjutsu:
    “Steve Smith”,

    Woodguy,

    I wasn’t talking about save % data.

    I may have misunderstood you, then. Which data were you talking about when you cited problems with data collection?

  175. Zelepukin says:

    spoiler: Big jump. 7 points with no games in hand.Have to win 4 more games than either team or tie the Nucks and win on head to head record. Possible but very unlikely. Have to finish 10-2-2 or 11-3-0 to have a significant chance.

    Has to be Blues or Wings or Sharks.

    2 games vs Min and Van though. Thats 3pts back but agreed, not an easy hill to climb given this months schedule.

  176. spoiler says:

    Yak’s English has been improving.

  177. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: How far back are we from Van and Minny?

    If SJS wins, they go to .600 and VAN goes to .611

    CHICAGO 0.814
    ANAHEIM 0.736
    MINNESOTA 0.629
    VANCOUVER 0.629
    LOS ANGELES 0.614
    SAN JOSE 0.588
    DETROIT 0.569
    ST LOUIS 0.559
    ————————————–
    EDMONTON 0.529
    COLUMBUS 0.514
    DALLAS 0.500
    NASHVILLE 0.500
    PHOENIX 0.486
    CALGARY 0.441
    COLORADO 0.400

    Need the STL goalimegeddon to continue.

  178. bookje says:

    spoiler: Big jump. 7 points with no games in hand.Have to win 4 more games than either team or tie the Nucks and win on head to head record. Possible but very unlikely. Have to finish 10-2-2 or 11-3-0 to have a significant chance.

    Has to be Blues or Wings or Sharks.

    Oh, but I am expecting a monumental Canucks crash. The kind of crash that amazes people. The kind of crash that has them missing the playoffs.

  179. hunter1909 says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    lol

    “Steve Smith” always does well in whatever laboratory conditions he exists.

    I’ll await one more “Steve Smith” witticism, then hopefully by then his meds will have kicked in.

  180. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Need the STL goalimegeddon to continue.

    One word: Bouwmeester.

    Jay’s the “making the NHL playoff” equivalent of a drunk – pissing on the third rail of the subway line.

  181. Kitchener says:

    Praise Gandalf – The Turning Of The Tide!!!!! Battle of AB has shifted and Calgary can bit our shiny copper asses.

    From the Sportsnet broadcast, “Smid bleeds blue.” Golly, I think that’s true.

    Here’s my prediction for the DECADE – from one prairie boy (MB-AB hybrid) to a forum of Albertans: Calgary will rise sooner than the tragically boneheaded Winnipeg Jets. Winnipeg believes they can win by tweaking group of also-rans, whereas Feaster is about to go scorched Earth and build a new Flame Behemoth that’ll start to take shape in 2-3 years & start to win games in 4-5.

    We should enjoy kicking the Flames while they’re down and ugly, but I suspect they’ll do a rebuild right and be trouble again in 2020.

    Stupid Jets. Stupid Flames. Here we go Oilers. The new AB era officially started tonight.

  182. DeadmanWaking says:

    icecastles,

    So far as I could figure out last night, it’s only ever been available in German. Oh, I see someone else has the same impression.

    We really need to win the next game against Calgary to finish crawling our way back into contention. I remember writing that we needed a certain number of points on the road trip (accomplished, in the least predictable way) and then a four game win streak at some point, before the debate shifts into the quadrant of “barely clearing the wire” or “too little, too late”.

    There are three teams that could falter and drop back, opening up eighth. We’re only halfway up the mountain from the double-ought low point from the road trip. Tonight I’m just very happy just to see a spirited pursuit to the wire shaping up.

    The problem from here is that our many required steps up the percentage ladder are modest, while each step down the ladder is huge. This discrepancy will continue to gape wider and wider until we find ourselves on the happy side of the dividing line–no sooner than the last week of the season under any known sky.

  183. spoiler says:

    bookje: Oh, but I am expecting a monumental Canucks crash.The kind of crash that amazes people.The kind of crash that has them missing the playoffs.

    So… what I am hearing you say is… and let me see if I have this right… is that you want me to Bookmark this thread?

    Bookjemark.

  184. asiaoil says:

    Woodguy: have

    But after Apr 12 STL has ONE road game left period….and that’s in COL. It would have to be a monumental goaltending disaster to keep a team that good out with that schedule. They went all in with JayBo and will get a goalie if they need one this week.

    We need to stay the course and let the chips fall where they may. Sell Whitney, Jones and any other bottom end junk we can off-load and try pick up a top 4 dman, big LW or center. As I said before – Tamblomac sat on their hands when Horc was injured and that has cost us a playoff spot – and should cost them their jobs – but of course it will not.

  185. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909: One word: Bouwmeester.

    Jay’s the “making the NHL playoff” equivalent of a drunk – pissing on the third rail of the subway line.

    Oh, I don’t think he’s that bad.

    He’s no Gio though

  186. hunter1909 says:

    DeadmanWaking: We really need to win the next game against Calgary to finish crawling our way back into contention.

    Remember Guderian’s tankers – they simply moved forward with zero worries about anything that might happen bad from either right or left.

    Charlie Sheen should be enlisted – it’s called “Winning”.

  187. Woodguy says:

    Zelepukin:
    Schultzy 5 points off of rookie lead. I think he can do it.

    If he gets close they have to give it to him because he’s a Dman right?

    Like, its in the rules right?

    Dammit!

    Oilers need a Calder winner.

  188. spoiler says:

    asiaoil: But after Apr 12 STL has ONE road game left period….and that’s in COL. It would have to be a monumental goaltending disaster to keep a team that good out with that schedule. They went all in with JayBo and will get a goalie if they need one this week.

    We need to stay the course and let the chips fall where they may. Sell Whitney, Jones and any other bottom end junk we can off-load and try pick up a top 4 dman, big LW or center. As I said before – Tamblomac sat on their hands when Horc was injured and that has cost us a playoff spot – and should cost them their jobs – but of course it will not.

    St. Louis has a better Away than Home record.

    Just sayin’.

  189. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Oilers need a Calder winner.

    Oilers laugh at the Calder trophy. Their rookies go on to compete for the Conn Smyth.

  190. asiaoil says:

    spoiler: St. Louis has a bette rAway than Home record.

    Look I’d love to believe we can get by them but realistically it will be really really hard. Gotta walk the line on Wednesday – get rid of the weak and wounded but still try improve the club by making at least one smart acquisition that addresses tomorrow as much as today.

  191. Woodguy says:

    asiaoil: But after Apr 12 STL has ONE road game left period….and that’s in COL. It would have to be a monumental goaltending disaster to keep a team that good out with that schedule. They went all in with JayBo and will get a goalie if they need one this week.

    We need to stay the course and let the chips fall where they may. Sell Whitney, Jones and any other bottom end junk we can off-load and try pick up a top 4 dman, big LW or center. As I said before – Tamblomac sat on their hands when Horc was injured and that has cost us a playoff spot – and should cost them their jobs – but of course it will not.

    I think you can “Wilson” other GM’s while trying to make the playoffs.

    Doug Wilson dumps his garbage on other GMs and they pay him for it.

    Murray and Handzus were the two worst RelCor on the team.

    He cleared out chaff and got 2 nds and a third and SJS hasn’t lost since Murray left.

    Can send Whitney, Jones and Khabby away and the team will get better.

    Need Tambellini to “Wilson” a few guys.

  192. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Judging by the “Wait” and past posting excellence, I’d say IC was joking on the Faust thing.

    I took it as genuine, but I also meant it as a returned rhetorical question.

    interesting side-bar. There are numerous Fausts, but Heine is the only one I know of to envision the devil as a lady temptress.

    also, if you’ve ever toiled in the records of various European cities c. 16th cent. you would find gems like this one from the city of Ingostadt:

    (a) minutes of the actions of the city council of Ingolstadt.

    (b) record of those banished from Ingolstadt.
    On Wednesday after St. Vitus’ Day, 1528, a certain man who called himself Dr. George Faust of Heidelberg was told to spend his penny elsewhere and he pledged not to take vengeance on or make fools of the authorities for this order.

    http://books.google.ca/books?id=FJ3kLhtNkCEC&pg=PA398&lpg=PA398&dq=records+city+of+ingolstadt+faust&source=bl&ots=IKbuohCPc5&sig=jkzEi8BFA6uW90pLBbdepxkiBuc&hl=en&sa=X&ei=vmRaUZitOsbvygGg7IH4Aw&ved=0CEAQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=records%20city%20of%20ingolstadt%20faust&f=false

    not sure how they managed to extract that clause out of him!

  193. Woodguy says:

    Wilson gets 3 picks for 2 guys you almost can’t give away, but gets value because they are expiring, have reputations and its the deadline.

    Those same picks will be worth roughly *licks thumb, holds it up into the wind* 4 times as much at the draft as he could get for them today.

    Also,

    Kessy got his 2nd hat trick of the playoffs today for Kamloops.

    Nice to see.

  194. Woodguy says:

    asiaoil,

    They have 5 toughish to tough road games before that:

    2013-04-04 BLUES BLACKHAWKS
    2013-04-05 BLUE JACKETS BLUES
    2013-04-07 BLUES RED WINGS
    2013-04-09 BLUES PREDATORS
    2013-04-11 BLUES WILD
    2013-04-12 BLUES BLUE JACKETS
    2013-04-14 BLACKHAWKS BLUES
    2013-04-16 CANUCKS BLUES
    2013-04-18 COYOTES BLUES
    2013-04-19 STARS BLUES
    2013-04-21 BLUES AVALANCHE
    2013-04-23 AVALANCHE BLUES
    2013-04-25 FLAMES BLUES
    2013-04-27 BLACKHAWKS BLUES

  195. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909: Oilers laugh at the Calder trophy. Their rookies go on to compete for the Conn Smyth.

    I think its the only trophy an Oiler hasn’t won

    edit: besides the new fangled ones.

    Gretzky would have won the Richard.

    Messier would have won the ummm……Messier.

  196. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: I think you can “Wilson” other GM’s while trying to make the playoffs.

    Doug Wilson dumps his garbage on other GMs and they pay him for it.

    Murray and Handzus were the two worst RelCor on the team.

    He cleared out chaff and got 2 nds and a third and SJS hasn’t lost since Murray left.

    Can send Whitney, Jones and Khabby away and the team will get better.

    Need Tambellini to “Wilson” a few guys.

    exactly.

    how is dropping dead weight (getting paid to do so in fact) ever a set back?

  197. FPB94 says:

    Wondered who the hell was this Matt Brunner the Red Wings had with 11 goals. Then realised he had 22 points and the Red Wings got another winger out of nowhere. Damn.

  198. Zelepukin says:

    Tambo needs to Wilson Wilson and trade him Whitney for those 2 rnd picks.

  199. asiaoil says:

    Woodguy,

    EDM has their next 4 on the road and then mostly at home. STL has their next 5 of 6 on the road and then mostly at home. We’ll have a pretty good idea where it stands by the time both teams finish this stretch – and unless we are clearly ahead of them at that point – it’s unlikely. STL must lose a lot of these upcoming road games.

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