IT’S A FAST TRAIN

The Edmonton Oilers have one more lottery bullet to spend at the draft. Should they go blue? Center? Winger? Big forward?

For the last while I’ve suggested the Oilers list might look like this:

  1. Seth Jones
  2. Nathan MacKinnon
  3. Jonathan Drouin
  4. Sasha Barkov
  5. Sean Monahan
  6. Elias Lindholm
  7. Valeri Nicushkin

This isn’t my list (I’ll have that in June as we get closer to the draft) but I suspect it reflects what the Oilers are looking at currently.

Hunter Shinkaruk

shinkaruk

  • Corey Pronman: “Shinkaruk is a dynamic offensive player who is a unique skater with high-end hands and finishing ability. He is a little on the small side, though.”

Shinkaruk’s NHLE (82, 14-19-33) compares at the same level as another player in the range, Anthony Mantha (82, 17-13-30) and it’s an interesting size/speed comparison.

  • Mantha is 6.03, 200 and born September 1994; Shinkaruk is 5.11, 175 and born October of 1994.
  • Mantha scored 13 of his 50 goals on the PP, and had 214 sog. Shinkaruk scored 14 of his 37 goals on the PP, and the WHL doesn’t track shots.

If we’re projecting these players, which one would you choose first?

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97 Responses to "IT’S A FAST TRAIN"

  1. Rondo says:

    From what I hear Seth Jones is going to be an excellent shutdown defenseman, The only question regarding him is can he score in the NHL.

    Sean Monahan
    Sasha Barkov
    Nickushkin
    Jones

    Any 1 of those 4 sounds good.

  2. Bad Seed says:

    I hope they nab Mackinnon or Barkov.

    But why are we talking Shinkaruk? I don’t see him in top 7 projections.

  3. striatic says:

    this year it looks like the drop off by reputation is after the top 3.

    i don’t think Edmonton ends up falling that far.

    is Barkov drops a couple slots or Edmonton can trade up a couple slots, i think you pick him.

    he’s the most “Ready to Go” player on that list other than Jones.

  4. Cobbler says:

    Monahan or Barkov for me. I like the combination of fairly decent size and some good looking production from a C.

    Given the number of D in the organization right now I think addressing depth at centre is the ideal way to go. That being said I would naturally take Jones, but don’t think the Oilers can fall that far.

    I think this year they can draft for need rather than being in the spotlight and taking BPA.

    Is the discussion moving away from Lazar being the choice now that the Oilers have fallen off?

  5. maudite says:

    I’m picking the closest C and not looking back. While the deficiencies in the back end are the most glaring, they are also the hardest to traditionally fix (in a short span) through the draft.

    Smid, Petry, Shultz doesn’t seem like a terrible base when you really look at it. I know there is not many prime UFA’s (and I don’t really want any prime UFA’s anywhere to be honest). I think if you really looked hard enough and were savy, you could put pieces in play around those guys that would result in an effective D by committee. I still look at the Rozsival/Corvo type signings and wonder what this year would have looked like if they would have addressed it with some shorter term vets. We have D in the system that are going to require some breaking in already (seems like a good bet Klefbom, Marincin, Musil, Simpson, Gernat bears at least some fruit). What we don’t really have is a staple of C’s bubbling under in the system. Granted they would likely end up plug and played but still, structure wise I think C is our weakest crop at the moment.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Cobbler:
    Monahan or Barkov for me.I like the combination of fairly decent size and some good looking production from a C.

    Given the number of D in the organization right now I think addressing depth at centre is the ideal way to go.That being said I would naturally take Jones, but don’t think the Oilers can fall that far.

    I think this year they can draft for need rather than being in the spotlight and taking BPA.

    Is the discussion moving away from Lazar being the choice now that the Oilers have fallen off?

    I think the Oilers like Lazar a ton, but if you’re picking 5th the options are taking Monahan/the Swede/the Finn or dealing down.

  7. cabbiesmacker says:

    Mantha. All day long but I’d hope the Oilers can do better than both options.

  8. maudite says:

    And yes I know, BPA and all that, but if the difference isn’t that pronounced I think you defer to picking up a C. This case if the board looks to be going in your favor, I would look at the possibility of trading down the order if my C is available and the drop isn’t big.

  9. Rondo says:

    LT,

    How much does two 2nd rounds picks move you up in the first round?

  10. Lowetide says:

    Maudite: I think they’ll race to the stage if Monahan is available.

  11. delooper says:

    Rondo: be

    Kind of tautological but you have to negotiate with the people picking ahead of you. I would imagine there’d be no takers for that kind of thing.

  12. Kris11 says:

    Jessie Niinimaki?

    WTH?

  13. Hammers says:

    Sooner have Barkov or Nikushkin.

  14. RickDeckard says:

    For what it is worth, the second rounder from Anaheim is restricted to the 53-61 range, excluding 59 because that is a compensatory pick belonging to Atlantapeg.

  15. Woodguy says:

    According to John Shannon:

    From: @JSportsnet
    Sent: Apr 23, 2013 5:45p

    NHL Central Scouting Rankings out tomorrow. North American Skaters: 1.SJones 2.NMacKinnon 3. JDrouin 4.DNurse 5.SMonahan. #nosurprises

    sent via web
    On Twitter: http://twitter.com/JSportsnet/status/326859462382067712

    Highly rated D tend to slide at the draft too, everyone wants a F, Jones will be the exception to this.

    A large Finn C would do this team some good.

    Slack Off for Barkov

  16. Lowetide says:

    WG: Barkov will be on the Euro list.

  17. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: Barkov will be on the Euro list.

    You’re fast, I deleted that in about 1.5min when I saw my mistake.

    Also,

    John Shannon ‏@JSportsnet 13s
    NHL Central Scouting for European skaters, All forwards:1. ABarkov (Finland) 2.VNichushkin (Russia) 3.ELindholm (Sweden).

  18. FastOil says:

    You take Jones first because of what is being said. Risky in a way, but there is equal risk playing the short term and missing CFP 2.0. I am not sure many GM’s pass him over, well maybe Talon goes for Drouin or MacK but he doesn’t count.

    After Jones we need a centre far more than a winger. I don’t see a drop off at 3. I see it at 4. The only thing with Barkov is playing in Europe and ~shoulder injury~ but what he did there at his age is exceptional, probably more so than Drouin and MacK.

    If I was confident in his health I would reverse Barkov and Drouin from the list.

  19. speeds says:

    FastOil:
    You take Jones first because of what is being said. Risky in a way, but there is equal risk playing the short term and missing CFP 2.0. I am not sure many GM’s pass him over, well maybe Talon goes for Drouin or MacK but he doesn’t count.

    After Jones we need a centre far more than a winger. I don’t see a drop off at 3. I see it at 4. The only thing with Barkov is playing in Europe and ~shoulder injury~ but what he did there at his age is exceptional, probably more so than Drouin and MacK.

    If I was confident in his health I would reverse Barkov and Drouin from the list.

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2006-mock-draft.htm

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/draft/2006-06-23-draft-preview-usa_x.htm

    Is it fair to ask if I’ve seen this movie before?

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Jones is an excellent D prospect, and I don’t think it’s impossible for a D to be the best prospect available in a draft. That said, I think it’s fair to question if that’s the case this year.

    For the sake of argument, which of the 4 F’s taken after Johnson (J.Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel) you wouldn’t take ahead of him now? In fairness, who knows how much Johnson’s knee injury may or may not have set him back from his potential, but that’s a pretty nice list of forwards.

  20. dawgtoy says:

    Why doesn’t Nikita Zadarov not seem to get any love?

  21. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: I think the Oilers like Lazar a ton, but if you’re picking 5th the options are taking Monahan/the Swede/the Finn or dealing down.

    If the Oilers Pouliot this draft, Oilers fans are going to lose their shit all over the interwebs.

  22. maudite says:

    Lowetide,

    “He has all the skills needed to be a dominant NHL player, such as solid two-way play, efficacy in the faceoff circle, offensive brilliance and superlative on-ice leadership.”

    6’2″ 186 lbs…

    I would hope so. Even if the kid only pans out to 1/2 of his potential he seems like he would fill a long term need.

  23. RickDeckard says:

    Woodguy,

    Crasha for Sasha

  24. VanOil says:

    I think I would walk away from defensemen with a top ten pick unless Jones is available.

    I would like a pick that could one day (a few years from now) be our number 2 center.

    In the mean time my thinking has evolved about our current number 2 center Gagner. Yes he has his faults defensively, but he is a consistent points producer and has good pro habits. Given the same coach for a few years there is a small chance that by the time he is 25 he might be less of a defensive mess.

    So sign the man and because the Oilers management has proven it self utterly useless in all but the first year of the salary cap era, do the opposite of what they have done. Sign Gagner to an 8 year contract. Ask for a home town, we are sorting you out for life, discount. 3.75M X 8 years. $30 Million dollars to play hockey is hard to turn down.

    Now those Gagner haters about there will be outraged, but hear me out. Gagner at 23 will be being paid to play hockey in the NHL for the next 8 years, in fact it will be the prime of his career. The salary cap is going to go way up over those years. Despite his faults his point production will mean he is 2nd or third line center on many teams. At $3.75M he will be considered an affordable contract for this role by most teams.

    The Oilers are screwed for Centers to start the next year. We will likely field, one unknown free agent, one over priced 3 liner (Horcoff) and an unproven prospect (Lander). Gagner might be our only hope for one that can score. If two or three years from now our emerging draftee from this years class takes Gagners job so be it. At that time you can decide if $3.75M is to much for a third line center. Then trade him. With the talent he is likely to get to play with on the Oilers for the next few years his point production will continue as will his value in a trade. Plus with this affordable contract it will mean he is easy to move.

    I am all for signing, trading and drafting centers this summer. I would like the add Sean Matthias to our NHL team, a maturing prospect like Brock Nelson to our AHL team, and draft a Center in the top 10. But even with all this, given the shit show Oilers pro scouting has been, if we don’t sign Gagner we could go 0 for Oct and Nov for goals off a centers stick. I assume of course both our top 2 right wingers will bank the odd shot of there collective arses just because they can. If they all work out great, move someone over to the wing, or trade them. Until then keep the hobbit.

  25. maudite says:

    Jordan: If the Oilers Pouliot this draft, Oilers fans are going to lose their shit all over the interwebs.

    For LT’s sake: Leave poor old MA out of this one.

    We’re more in the Bosignore, Kelly type epic fail range…

    As an aside LT, I would love to hear your take on the dark ages of drafting in the Oil’s history. I have my suspicions there could be some pretty solid narrative in the costs of terrible development strategy as much as complete draft busts.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Riley Nash just moved us into 5th.

    Go Canes!

  27. FastOil says:

    speeds: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2006-mock-draft.htm

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/draft/2006-06-23-draft-preview-usa_x.htm

    Is it fair to ask if I’ve seen this movie before?

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Jones is an excellent D prospect, and I don’t think it’s impossible for a D to be the best prospect available in a draft.That said, I think it’s fair to question if that’s the case this year.

    For the sake of argument, which of the 4 F’s taken after Johnson (J.Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel) you wouldn’t take ahead of him now?In fairness, who knows how much Johnson’s knee injury may or may not have set him back from his potential, but that’s a pretty nice list of forwards.

    I agree with taking forwards as well. Was Johnson ever thought of like Jones? I think the risk of not picking him Jones will have him chosen 1st. So Tambellini left that, likely won’t be a decision the Oilers have to make. I saw Jones play once and wasn’t impressed to the generational D level so everyone can close the book on that ;)

    I think both of the two younger C will be at least very strong players in the league barring injury. A choice between size and blazing quickness, offense and defensive play is impossible to say but both guys seem to play two ways.

    Gotta say the Finn thing sways me but MacK may be better suited to the Oil because of the speed and tempo, and The Scouting Report says he’s aggressive on the fore check. His size once he fills out a bit won’t be a huge issue (in reality he’s likely already bigger than Gagner) and he’ll probably spend summer training with Crosby.

    If they get one of the younger C, when they pull the trigger do you think Gagner can bring a top D back?

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Now we just need Nashville to win this game in OT… Go 3 point game!

  29. VanOil says:

    A Carolina win. A three point night in Nashville and we are laughing all the way to the draft.

  30. maudite says:

    Man, that 1994 draft sure is an interesting year. Franchise type guys being pulled late and just a crap shoot. Hard to fault them (we did get smyth)

    But 1995 should have been the firing squad to the scouting staff.

  31. RickDeckard says:

    VanOil,

    I’d like a center but if it has to be a defenceman I hope it is Ristolainen or Pulock.

    FastOil,

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/allan_muir/06/25/west.grades/1.html

    “Erik Johnson (1st overall) gives them a bona fide No. 1 defenseman, a horse described by some as being better than Chris Pronger at this age. He could become just as dominant as the ex-Blue down the road.”

  32. fifthcartel says:

    One thing that will really suck is if Colorado drafts MacKinnon and has him play on the wing due to the thunderous center depth they have. Which raises the question, if it goes FLA then COL, and Jones is gone, do they pick Drouin?

  33. BlacqueJacque says:

    I think odds are good that Florida will consider either MacKinnon (for that 1-2 down the middle combo with Huberdeau), or Drouin (potential generational talent weapon on Hube’s left wing) before Jones (defenceman). Tampa, IMO, would select either MacKinnon or Drouin if given a choice. Lecavalier is at about the age where players begin to fade hard, and his cap hit is significant enough that he could be bought out. Plus, they have Hedman, they chose Hedman, and they’ve seen the development issues with can’t-miss-superstar-prospect-defencemen first hand.

    Nashville might be the kind of team that picks a defenceman with their pick, but they’ve been screaming for top-end scoring talent for years and I’d think their choices would be Drouin -> Mackinnon -> Jones.

    Colorado will not catch us in the standings, and they’re the one team ahead of us in the draft lottery that I’m sure would pick Jones. They’re stacked down the middle (Duchene, O’Reilly, Stastny), they’ve got Landesbeast on the left wing, and they gave up Shattenkirk for a Johnson… the better of the Johnson defencemen, but still, a Johnson.

    TL;DR – if we want Jones, we need to draft ahead of Colorado. Possibly trade up, possibly trade our likely #4 pick for help. If we move down to 29th or 28th in the standings and pick 3rd or 2nd, I can also see us drafting Drouin or Mackinnon and trading for a d-man. Hopefully a Pietrangelo/Subban/Hedman type rather than an overpaid Suter/Weber.

  34. maudite says:

    I would honestly have the stupidest draft strategy going:

    1st Round -> always lean towards best C
    2nd Round -> always lean towards best D
    3rd on -> BPA

    Yes it’s simple but really if I’m a team with a surplus of either of these things, I’m generally trading from a position of strength looking at the value of things.

  35. RickDeckard says:

    fifthcartel,

    Landy-Duchene
    Drouin-ROR

    Pretty good top two lines, they could use a RW though…

    Oh wait, Colorado has nothing else of value to the Oilers.

  36. speeds says:

    FastOil: I agree with taking forwards as well. Was Johnson ever thought of like Jones? I think the risk of not picking him Jones will have him chosen 1st. So Tambellini left that, likely won’t be a decision the Oilers have to make. I saw Jones play once and wasn’t impressed to the generational D level so everyone can close the book on that

    I think so. Here’s a couple quotes from those links I posted earlier that seem to suggest the talk surrounding Johnson then isn’t that dissimilar from the talk surrounding Jones now.

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2006-mock-draft.htm

    1. St. Louis: Erik Johnson. The Blues have never been able to adequately replace Chris Pronger. So they take the best defensive prospect to come along since Pronger was drafted 13 years ago. Defensive stud will run their power play and log 28 minutes a night.

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/draft/2006-06-23-draft-preview-usa_x.htm

    Johnson is the consensus No. 1, though there is considerable interest in Jordan Staal, younger brother of Carolina standout Eric Staal.

    It appears Johnson has the best chance of playing right away, particularly since he would be going to a team that missed the playoffs. “He’s the best defense prospect of the last 20 years,” Woodlief said. “He’s better than Chris Pronger was by far at this age.”

    Johnson is 6-4, 218 pounds with exceptional mobility, offensive gifts and toughness. At some point, he could affect a playoff series like a Pronger.

    “He’s a can’t-miss,” said Anaheim Ducks general manager Brian Burke.

  37. VanOil says:

    RickDeckard,

    I think Subban the youngest, will be available with the Oilers first 2nd round draft pick. He might be the steal of the draft and we have Defensive giants a head of them in the system that will make up for his current shortness. His skill level seems to be excellent, pair him with one of the giants who might lose there hands along the way.

  38. FastOil says:

    RickDeckard:
    VanOil,

    I’d like a center but if it has to be a defenceman I hope it is Ristolainen or Pulock.

    FastOil,

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/allan_muir/06/25/west.grades/1.html

    “Erik Johnson (1st overall) gives them a bona fide No. 1 defenseman, a horse described by some as being better than Chris Pronger at this age. He could become just as dominant as the ex-Blue down the road.”

    Yikes! Take MacKinnon first MacT. I like Ristolainen as well.
    Disgrace for Nath
    Crash for Sash

  39. RickDeckard says:

    VanOil,

    He’s another player I like. He might end up like Jared Staal but bloodlines are valuable. A Gernat-Jordan pairing would be chaos incarnate.

  40. VanOil says:

    I am not happy Nashville ruined the tie for now, but given that they have shown no sign of winning a game for so long it is OK. May they win the rest of the year!

  41. fifthcartel says:

    RickDeckard,

    Definitely, I can see them wanting Jones or Drouin religiously. This will definitely lead to some interesting choices within the top 5.

    Either way, Oilers just pick any of the centers left, please!

  42. VanOil says:

    RickDeckard:
    VanOil,
    He’s another player I like. He might end up like Jared Staal but bloodlines are valuable. A Gernat-Jordan pairing would be chaos incarnate.

    I have a picture in mind of the two of them in a OKC night club! Meeting the famous Okkie girls and explaining what they do for a living. Chaos incarnate. It would be a fun show.

  43. shawwwood says:

    Bob McKenzie on TEAM 1260 said that the top tier of 3 in this draft (Seth Jones/Nathan MacKinnon/Jonathan Drouin) is now considered to be 4 – Valeri Nicushkin

  44. speeds says:

    speeds: I think so.Here’s a couple quotes from those links I posted earlier that seem to suggest the talk surrounding Johnson then isn’t that dissimilar from the talk surrounding Jones now.

    I should clarify. I recall the talk around Johnson being pretty similar to the talk around Jones, those quotes from Woodlief do seem to support that, but that’s only one source. It doesn’t mean that every scout sees them the same way – maybe most do, maybe they don’t, I shouldn’t claim to know. It sounds similar to me, but I could be mistaken in my recollection.

  45. BlacqueJacque says:

    speeds,

    Wow. You could almost take any scouting report on Johnson/Jones, change the names, and not see a difference.

    This is why defencemen just don’t go first overall, any more. Jack Johnson (not a first) certainly doesn’t help. Larsson and Hedman sliding down are also easily defensible moves.

  46. Simmer24 says:

    I would take Shinkaruk over Mantha, but purely based on the fact that I saw him good in the two Tigers games I was privileged to watch this year. Shinkaruk made every player around him better. He was also very good defensively and had the leadership intangible.

    Again, I haven’t seen Mantha and that size and skill combination is very tough to pass on. We don’t need another Gagner, so maybe Mantha becomes the better bet.

  47. Gret99zky says:

    Calgary gets one back 4-3 Nashville. C’mon Flames, get it to OT.

  48. Gret99zky says:

    I shamingly admit I am excited to see the results of the lottery and hope the Oilers get as high a pick as possible.

    Imagine if we win the damn lottery!

  49. RickDeckard says:

    VanOil,

    Alternate title: the Thin Blue Line

    shawwwood,

    That’s good for the Oilers, though I doubt any of the teams before the Oilers have the patience to take him. Calgary must be praying he falls to them so that they can take Ekblad next year.

  50. VanOil says:

    All we have to do now is lose our game in hand against the best team in the league! To bad I have a feeling we might not be able to accomplish that, we kind of have Chicago’s number.

  51. BlacqueJacque says:

    Gret99zky:
    I shamingly admit I am excited to see the results of the lottery and hope the Oilers get as high a pick as possible.

    Imagine if we win the damn lottery!

    If we win the lottery, the conspiracy theories will start and I’ll be among those talking about it. Someone on FlamesNation did the math and the odds of the Oilers winning the last 3 was just over 4%. To win again now… from our position? Under 0.4%.

  52. BlacqueJacque says:

    Hell yes, Nashville wins. We hold the tiebreaker, but I’m confident that with our schedule and handicaps, we can produce 0 points in 3 games and I think Nashville is good enough to get at least a Bettman over the next two. If Tampa gets 3 points over their next 3 games, they’ll pass us.

    Colorado and Florida are uncatchable.

  53. sliderule says:

    Nicushkin isn’t having a very good u18.

    Don’t be surprised if he drops to 8 or 9

  54. MrSmitty says:

    Anyone have the new odds of where we will draft? I am going to do a shot of slivo tonight in honor Horcov and Ales. Man if we get Barkov or McKinnon out of this draft I will probably lose my mind.

  55. BlacqueJacque says:

    MrSmitty,

    I think I have a video of you doing so.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_mHRi_L9S8

  56. MrSmitty says:

    RickDeckard:
    MrSmitty,

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2013-nhl-draft-lottery-odds/

    No no the bell curve odds of where the Oilers will end up at the end of the season. The two wins by carolina and nashville should have moved the curve down a bit methinks.

  57. dangilitis says:

    Hey LT (or others), off topic but do you think Oilers should go after any of Ryan Clowe, Brendan Morrow, Brad Boyes, Bickell, Stalberg, or Torres? If so, how much would you offer, and who do you think the Oilers have the best shot at?

  58. Gret99zky says:

    BlacqueJacque: If we win the lottery, the conspiracy theories will start and I’ll be among those talking about it.Someone on FlamesNation did the math and the odds of the Oilers winning the last 3 was just over 4%.To win again now… from our position?Under 0.4%.

    Phoenix winning it might start some conspiracy theories as well.

  59. Lowetide says:

    dangilitis:
    Hey LT (or others), off topic but do you think Oilers should go after any of Ryan Clowe, Brendan Morrow, Brad Boyes, Bickell, Stalberg, or Torres? If so, how much would you offer, and who do you think the Oilers have the best shot at?

    I like Stalberg quite a bit, he’s young enough to hang around for awhile. Raffi’s a good player still, too.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Also,

    Van Morrison: Its a fast train

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1W_zjwOlBY

  61. "Steve Smith" says:

    BlacqueJacque: If we win the lottery, the conspiracy theories will start and I’ll be among those talking about it.Someone on FlamesNation did the math and the odds of the Oilers winning the last 3 was just over 4%.To win again now… from our position?Under 0.4%.

    The odds of us winning the last three, or the odds of us picking first overall the last three? We didn’t win the lottery in 2011, remember.

    I bring that up not just to raise a technical inaccuracy (but mostly that), but because it could have affected that poster’s conclusion. 4% sounds low to me, but I can’t confirm that unless I have the lottery odds for each position under the last CBA, which I’m too lazy to look up.

  62. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy:
    Also,

    Van Morrison: Its a fast train

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1W_zjwOlBY

    Van Morrison is a God.

  63. godot10 says:

    dangilitis:
    Hey LT (or others), off topic but do you think Oilers should go after any of Ryan Clowe, Brendan Morrow, Brad Boyes, Bickell, Stalberg, or Torres? If so, how much would you offer, and who do you think the Oilers have the best shot at?

    Geez, signing Moreau and Staois to those 4 year contracts in their early thirties was such a good idea, lets do it again with Ryan Clowe, Brendan Morrow, Raffi Torres, and Brad Boyes.

  64. FastOil says:

    Lowetide: I like Stalberg quite a bit, he’s young enough to hang around for awhile. Raffi’s a good player still, too.

    LT I have been meaning to ask someone- what style of player is Stalberg other than good? Is he aggressive enough to catch Mac or Lowe’s eye. Bickel would be but it looks like a career year, enough please.

  65. RickDeckard says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    48.2% x 48.2% x 18.8% = 4.37%

  66. Rondo says:

    It is fun speculating who the Oilers should pick. However 99.9% of us have never seen the player we like play or seen them play a few games . We read articles form opinions based on how well the author conveys the information. None of us are pro scouts.

  67. "Steve Smith" says:

    RickDeckard,

    Okay, I just looked them up, and you’re right. I hadn’t realized how sharply the odds dropped off (which translated, ironically, to my overestimating the odds of the last place team picking first overall).

  68. Woodguy says:

    Captain Happy: Van Morrison is a God.

    One of em for sure.

  69. commonfan14 says:

    BlacqueJacque: If we win the lottery, the conspiracy theories will start and I’ll be among those talking about it.

    Who, exactly, would be in on this conspiracy? Edmonton is just about the last market in the league that the NHL would want to stack up through the rigging of lotteries.

  70. gogliano says:

    I’ll be surprised if the top 4 don’t go top 4 (Jones/Drouin/MacKinnon/Nichushkin in no particular order). Things happen though and projecting kids leaves a lot of room for interpretation.

    I didn’t think they’d have a shot at Barkov a couple weeks ago but if they slot in at #5 I think odds are better than not we have a big Finn at C with a Sep. 2 95 birthday. He might be gone at #6 but maybe not. I haven’t seen him play outside the WJC but the nationality, frame and birthdate sure are tempting.

  71. Gret99zky says:

    commonfan14: Who, exactly, would be in on this conspiracy?Edmonton is just about the last market in the league that the NHL would want to stack up through the rigging of lotteries.

    Dick Cheney.

    He can be seen in the photo above behind Jones.

  72. justDOit says:

    Gret99zky: Dick Cheney.

    He can be seen in the photo above behind Jones.

    If there is Oil involved, Cheney can’t be far.

  73. Woodguy says:

    justDOit: If there is Oil involved, Cheney can’t be far.

    Fantastic.

  74. Beaker says:

    BlacqueJacque: If we win the lottery, the conspiracy theories will start and I’ll be among those talking about it.Someone on FlamesNation did the math and the odds of the Oilers winning the last 3 was just over 4%.To win again now… from our position?Under 0.4%.

    Except thats the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. Besides the Oilers didnt “win” the lottery each year. Statistically its easy to draft first all the time when you place 20th in the league. The guy writing that is probably the same guy who will write articles about small sample sizes and regressions to the mean. I once got KK two hands in a row in poker and twice in a row another player beat me with AA…. doesnt mean the game was rigged.

    “OMG that coin landed on heads 5 times in a row!!! It must be rigged!”

    If the Oil won the lottery this year id laugh but id be more embarrassed than anything else.

  75. misfit says:

    I’d take Lindholm over Monahan myself. There’s a clear top 3 that you have to take if you have a chance at any one of them. After that, Barkov seems like the clear cut #4 followed by a cluster that includes Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse, and Nichushkin (which I would put Lindholm at the top of).

    I don’t know much about Nichushkin except that he impressed at the WJC, has good size, and can play both wings (and possibly center). I remember Niederreiter doing the same and riding that to a probably undeserved 5th overall selection on draft day. I have him in there because the scouting community seems to collectively have him rated in that range.

    Shinkaruk? I like him, but I don’t consider him among that group of 8. If he’s BPA, I would have no problem with the Oilers drafting him, but I just don’t see us ending up in a position where he’s in the conversation of BPA. Between he and Mantha, I think you have to respect the 50 goal factor. That’s a feat in any league and when you add in the other factors (size, skating, smarts), it’s a pretty impressive package. The upside is just too tempting.

  76. dangilitis says:

    godot10,

    I didn’t say offer them 4 year contracts, smartass

  77. supernova says:

    Simmer24:
    I would take Shinkaruk over Mantha, but purely based on the fact that I saw him good in the two Tigers games I was privileged to watch this year. Shinkaruk made every player around him better. He was also very good defensively and had the leadership intangible.

    Again, I haven’t seen Mantha and that size and skill combination is very tough to pass on. We don’t need another Gagner, so maybe Mantha becomes the better bet.

    I have seen Shinkaruk play dozens of times over the last 3 years. He has a lot of skill but he doesn’t tilt the ice. He is a complementary player who I don’t see as a fit on the oilers he won’t be better than Eberle or Yakpov nor will he be a good fit if he played LW behind Hall. He would be to the oil what hemsky is now, and for that I would keep hemsky as he is bigger and more experienced.

    Can’t comment on Mantha but he seems like fool’s gold as if he were a day older he would have been in last years draft, and I don’t recall there being any mention of him last year. Now maybe he matured latter but we are basically talking about a draft plus one season on both.

    If you had to choose between the two it would be Shinkaruk but if your the Oil please take someone else.

  78. RickDeckard says:

    speeds:

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/draft/2006-06-23-draft-preview-usa_x.htm

    “The Americans have as many as 16 potential first-rounders, including defenseman Chris Summers, considered one of the best skaters in the draft, and defenseman Jeff Petry, son of former Detroit Tigers pitcher Dan Petry. ”

    I wonder, if you had told scouts that Petry would become the best defenseman from that draft, would they even consider it possible? Did they see the skillset he would one day possess?

  79. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    In this order.

    1) Barkov
    2) Nicushkin
    3) Monahan

    Lindholm completely off the list, the Oilers don’t need another small forward.

    Mantha for the same reason, the Oilers can’t use Shinkaruk.

    If the Oilers somehow won the Lottery, my list would start with Mackinnon.

    Having said that, if the Oilers are hard up for Lazar then get another first round pick.

    I can’t see the Oilers trading or moving back, they want Barkov just as bad as most fans here want him.

  80. Ducey says:

    Crazy that Tampa Bay is in 28th but has a goal differential of just -1

  81. Ducey says:

    Oh, and Kessy with an assist and an unsportsmanlike (2minutes) penalty last night.

  82. BlacqueJacque says:

    Beaker: Except thats the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard.Besides the Oilers didnt “win” the lottery each year. Statistically its easy to draft first all the time when you place 20th in the league.The guy writing that is probably the same guy who will write articles about small sample sizes and regressions to the mean.I once got KK two hands in a row in poker and twice in a row another player beat me with AA…. doesnt mean the game was rigged.

    “OMG that coin landed on heads 5 times in a row!!! It must be rigged!”

    If the Oil won the lottery this year id laugh but id be more embarrassed than anything else.

    You know, before calling things stupid, why don’t you do the math yourself, and stop throwing insults around. This isn’t HFB.

    I don’t know the exact odds, but here are the Oilers’ chances of winning the lottery – including teams out of #1 contention winning it. ~48% in each of the first two years (25% winning, 23.2% chance to win if a team out of #1 contention won), and 18.8% in 2012.

    0.48×0.48×0.188 = 4.3 something %. That’s much harder than 3 coin tosses in a row (16.25%). Given the significance of drafting first overall… well, as for conspiracy theories? They already exist about the three in a row. Nobody takes them too seriously, but they do exist. Hell, the NBA still hears it from fans because the Knicks won the Ewing lottery.

  83. russ99 says:

    If we stay in 7th, then my picks are Nurse, Ristolainen, Lindholm, Monahan in that order. We have a drastic need at both defense and center and if picked either defensemen move to the top of our defensive prospect list.

    Monahan looks to me like a NHL 3rd liner with NHL 2nd liner OHL numbers, not sure if he’s worth the risk when we can sign an FA to fill that role and have them help now rather than in 3 years.

    If we move up to 4th or 5th and get a chance to draft Barkov, he’s got to be the pick.

    If they want Lazar, they should trade down, but they’d face the ire of an increasingly angry fanbase.

  84. FPB94 says:

    I’m surprised there isn’t more love for Drouin:

    The kid simply outpaced Mackinnon by a mile and he’s keeping up in the playoffs. I’m sure he’ll go up a bit when he gets memorial cup MVP.

    The only players drafted this decade who scored at a higher pace than Drouin are:

    Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane

  85. russ99 says:

    FPB94,

    Drouin is a fantastic player, likely the best in this draft, but I can’t see any scenario where we’d be able to pick him, If we somehow wIn the lottery, we’d draft Jones.

  86. FPB94 says:

    russ99,

    Yeah I can understand the logic behind drafting defenseman: I used to defend Hedman vs Tavares. But looking trough the draft learned me that defenseman usually pan out far less usually than forwards, and you’re much more suspect to getting a franchise defenseman out of the latter rounds than a forward.

    I’d be more inclined to trade the pick for a real bonafide defenseman than actually drafting one.

  87. mumbai max says:

    FPB94:
    I’m surprised there isn’t more love for Drouin:

    The kid simply outpaced Mackinnon by a mile and he’s keeping up in the playoffs. I’m sure he’ll go up a bit when he gets memorial cup MVP.

    The only players drafted this decade who scored at a higher pace than Drouin are:

    Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane

    Because you need to be big to get lovin this year.

  88. BlacqueJacque says:

    FPB94,

    We don’t need a superstar LW. We need a franchise dman. We could really benefit from an upgrade at centre.

  89. supernova says:

    BlacqueJacque: You know, before calling things stupid, why don’t you do the math yourself, and stop throwing insults around.This isn’t HFB.

    I don’t know the exact odds, but here are the Oilers’ chances of winning the lottery – including teams out of #1 contention winning it.~48% in each of the first two years (25% winning, 23.2% chance to win if a team out of #1 contention won), and 18.8% in 2012.

    0.48×0.48×0.188 = 4.3 something %.That’s much harder than 3 coin tosses in a row (16.25%).Given the significance of drafting first overall… well, as for conspiracy theories?They already exist about the three in a row.Nobody takes them too seriously, but they do exist.Hell, the NBA still hears it from fans because the Knicks won the Ewing lottery.

    Not sure why there is so much discussion on the percantages. The simple fact is our odds don’t get worse the next year by winning one year.

    Overall it is a low percantage but you have to look at each year on their own. The Crosby draft is a much better fit for this discussion.

  90. BlacqueJacque says:

    supernova,

    That I understand. But if we win the lottery this year, that’d be like eight heads in a row. Doesn’t seem bad until,you try it. Now that could happen on your first eight tosses, or not happen at all if you tried all day.

  91. FPB94 says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    There’s never enough a thing as too many good forwards, and they usually pan out more often. Do you really think the Oilers would have trouble dealing one of the kids (Eberle, RNH, Yakupov) for a young good looking defenseman?

  92. borisnikov says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    This discussion happens every year. The odds are the same every time, it’s the probability that decreases. If Oil were finishing last again the odds of them picking 1st would be the same as 2010 and 2011. If they finish 2nd last, odds are same as 2012. The odds for whatever position they finish in this year is completely unaffected by what happened previously. If you were to look at all four years together and say what are the odds that they pick first every year, that is where you get into very low probability or the .4% you refer to (if that is actually the number).

  93. borisnikov says:

    borisnikov,

    borisnikov:
    BlacqueJacque,

    This discussion happens every year. The odds are the same every time, it’s the probability that decreases. If Oil were finishing last again the odds of them picking 1st would be the same as 2010 and 2011. If they finish 2nd last, odds are same as 2012. The odds for whatever position they finish in this year is completely unaffected by what happened previously. If you were to look at all four years together and say what are the odds that they pick firstevery year, that is where you get into very low probability or the .4% you refer to (if that is actually the number).

    Never mind. Beating a dead horse.

  94. Beaker says:

    BlacqueJacque: You know, before calling things stupid, why don’t you do the math yourself, and stop throwing insults around.This isn’t HFB.

    I don’t know the exact odds, but here are the Oilers’ chances of winning the lottery – including teams out of #1 contention winning it.~48% in each of the first two years (25% winning, 23.2% chance to win if a team out of #1 contention won), and 18.8% in 2012.

    0.48×0.48×0.188 = 4.3 something %.That’s much harder than 3 coin tosses in a row (16.25%).Given the significance of drafting first overall… well, as for conspiracy theories?They already exist about the three in a row.Nobody takes them too seriously, but they do exist.Hell, the NBA still hears it from fans because the Knicks won the Ewing lottery.

    If you’re feeling insulted by that then get some thicker skin or stay off the internet. I’m not arguing the math I’m arguing the logic behind the math that leads to the conspiracy theory.

    Stats independent of thinking mean nothing. Reading too much into a team thats placed 30th, 20th, 29th and 27th beating the odds to draft first is just being dramatic. BTW, I wasnt even implying that I thought that about you just about people who would be up in arms about it.

    P.S. Never been to HF boards.. never plan to go.

  95. WeridAl says:

    Toss up between Barkov and Monahan, I’d take Monahan. Monahan is a better skater, rated in the top 3 in the FO department in the OHL and has great leadership skills. Some question on Barkov’s skating, but he’s a big body, and is the better playmaker. If Monahan was on a better team, he would be rated higher.

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