MACT’S OPTIONS

A week after the MacT revival press conference, we know the new GM plans on doing something that will tip his hand early and indicate to us what the future brings. This could be any of the following:

  1. A blockbuster trade involving impact youth for experience
  2. A three-for-one (please baby Jesus, just one time)
  3. A “picks and prospects for expiring contracts” deal ala Philly’s deal with Nashville for Hartnell and Timonen
  4. A “buyout” trade that gives EDM another overpaid veteran but someone who can help
  5. A straight hockey trade of quality for quality
  6. This year’s first round pick for immediate help

I like the three for one (really?) but think there’s a chance the Oilers go with #3 or #4 a an option. It would tip MacT’s hand early (and I think we must be talking about something beyond an offer sheet or draft day deal) and give Oiler fans an indication  of what the new sheriff has planned.

RIP Richie Havens.

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91 Responses to "MACT’S OPTIONS"

  1. DBO says:

    option 4 is the one I see. question becomes who are the most likely buyout players that helps us? Has anyone seen a probable buyout list out there on the Al Gore?

    And also, I wonder if another one to add to your list is “A prospect trade for a player on a team with cap trouble” ala the Flyers and Rangers.

  2. Hammers says:

    I see #3 and #6 as very possible for McT. There may even be a couple of the #3 variety or a mix of 1st plus player ( Tuebert , Hartski ) for major upgrade . Interesting times are coming .

  3. BlacqueJacque says:

    Hmm, we could claim 27th in the league tonight if Nashville and Carolina win their winnable games.

  4. DBO says:

    Lazy start to the day. here is a quick list of players on the teams with cap issues for next year.

    Tampa Bay – Ryan Malone, Mattias Ohlund.
    Philly – Bryzgalov, Briere, Hartnell
    Chicago – Montador, Olesz, Hjalmarsson
    Carolina – Ruutu, Gleason
    Pittsburgh – Martin, Jokinen
    San Jose – Havlat, Burns
    Rangers – Richards

    So maybe it is a deal of some prospects for these guys so the teams who have them now don’t have to spend the buyout money. A few options that may work.

    I do hope for the 3 for 1 kind of deal with someone like the Rangers for a McDonough or Del Zotto.

  5. russ99 says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    LOL – it would be just like the Oilers to pick 4th in a draft with three impact players…

  6. DBO says:

    russ99,

    Actually it would be just like the Oilers to win the lottery and get the top pick, while then firing the coach and bringing in someone new but forcing that new coach to use the same old assistants. Seriously, why does Buckberger still have a job? Most coaches pick their own assistants. Bring real change MacT. Let the coach actually pick his own team so you get a real measurement of what he brings when he has real assistants.

  7. justDOit says:

    #7) Offer sheet some RFAs on cap-strapped teams.

  8. speeds says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Hmm, we could claim 27th in the league tonight if Nashville and Carolina win their winnable games.

    Even if NSH wins, wouldn’t they still be ahead of EDM in the draft order? Tied in points, but NSH would have less ROW wins.

  9. BlacqueJacque says:

    speeds,

    Oh? I guess I read the standings wrong. This Bettman point stuff is getting complicated.

  10. DBO says:

    speeds,

    Brian Costello ‏@bcostellothn 23h
    My April 22 projection for last place (draft lottery purposes): 30-Fla, 29-Col, 28-TB, 27-Car, 26-Nsh, 25-Edm, 24-Cgy, 23-NJ. Update daily.

  11. speeds says:

    LT:

    I would be kind of surprised to see a significant move much before the draft, what do you consider “early”?

  12. Kris11 says:

    Hey LT,

    Congrats on the radio gig.

    I suspect the first round pick gets traded for a youngish player unless it can get them one of Jones, Drouin, MacKinnnon, or Barkov, which is probably unlikely at this point.

  13. russ99 says:

    speeds,

    Isn’t there a roster freeze until someone takes home the Cup?

  14. FPB94 says:

    So I heard the negotations were blocking because of the statue. Nice.

  15. GordM says:

    Capgeek indicates “June 2013″ as the buyout period. Will be interesting to see what players become available via compliance buyouts. Might be some unexpected useful pieces floating around.

  16. spoiler says:

    LT said…

    A week after the MacT revival press conference, we know the new GM plans on doing something that will tip his hand early…

    “Know”… I don’t think this word means what you think it means.

  17. hockeyguy10 says:

    DBO,

    I was looking at Capgeek the other day and was surprised to see Carolina up against it $ wise. I thought it was strange when Semin was extended for 7 mil per.I like Ruutu he is a very intersting player.

  18. DBO says:

    hockeyguy10,

    Agreed. Some weird moves for them. Ruutu and Malone are two players that have been linked to the Oil for years. Both have injury issues, both have “grit and truculence” with enough skill. Seems like they are perfect Oilers……. slowly shaking head.

  19. sliderule says:

    I was hoping the oil would win a couple but now that Flames have pulled ahead of us I hope we lose out and get Barkov.

    The only one of the coaches who have a chance to get a job after oilers fire them will be RK.

    I take that back Buck and Smith are here for life.

    A never ending groundhog day.

  20. HugThePost says:

    Looking at the bright side, we don’t necessarily need to attract the Ruffs and Tippetts here. We need the next Bylsma–a young, forward thinking eager guy looking to make his mark in the best league in the world. There are only 30 jobs available worldwide for someone who wants to coach an nhl team, and a whole lot more applicants. We just need the right guy. Not convinced Coach K is him, but we just have to stop keeping the hires in house if there are better out there.

    Having said that though, this season has turned out to be another flaming pile of turd on the doorstep, from the embarrassing mishandling of more assets (Peckham, Nuge’s shoulder), inability of management to show they actually want to win (Tambo not finding us centers) and just plain shit on the team (Whitney, Jones, Belanger, Hordi, Eager, etc Ugh).

    macT has a lot of work to do, but a nice first step this summer would be calling Barkov’s name at the draft and signing #89 to keep his seat warm for him.

  21. Traktor says:

    If Edmonton signs Gags for 4.5, MPS for 1.5, and Harti for 1M they have 59.6 committed to only 17 skaters and 1 goalie. Basically they have 5M left to fill 5 positions. They pretty much have no way of bringing in anything good without moving Hemsky’s 5M or buying out Horcoff. A top 4 D is going to cost around 4M and then you don’t even have any cap to fill the other positions.

    I would be shocked if Horcoff isn’t bought out. Belanger hopefully can be be moved for a late pick. Same with Smyth.

  22. Clarkenstein says:

    If anybody thinks that, in one summer, MacT is going to clean up the 10 year shitshow that KLowe has left him then they’re dreaming in Technicolor!! The cancer is deep and widespread in this organization. Essentially, you have to clean out half the team and the entire coaching staff if you want to do it right. Not sure if he wants to do this or if he is even able to do this but I see 2 to 3 years until this team is one that can compete for 82 games. But at least the President of the org. knows “something about winning”!! Right.

  23. Traktor says:

    Clarkenstein:
    If anybody thinks that, in one summer,MacT is going to clean up the 10 year shitshow that KLowe has left him then they’re dreaming in Technicolor!! The cancer is deep and widespread in this organization. Essentially, you have to clean out half the team and the entire coaching staff if you want to do it right.Not sure if he wants to do this or if he is even able to do this but I see 2 to 3 years until this team is one that can compete for 82 games. But at least the President of the org. knows “something about winning”!! Right.

    wot?

    He has 2 free passes with the compliance buyouts, a lot of dead weight have expiring contracts and pretty much all of the core is locked up.

    - Move Hemsky for a Jason Smith type.
    - Buyout Horcoff and replace with Winnick type.
    - Use the money saved and sign/trade for a gritty 3rd liner
    - Sign a goalie from Sweden or Finland

  24. gcw_rocks says:

    I have no problem with a bold move as long as it is a smart move. Sadly, I have no faith that an organization run by Kevin Lowe knows what a smart move is anymore.

    We wait and see.

  25. Captain Obvious says:

    Trades shouldn’t be made to fill holes or change the mix. The only thing that matters is the return. As a consequence it would be a grave error to come up with an a priori plan. Rather, a shrewd GM would test the waters, see where the return is, and make that trade.

    With that in mind there are three players on the Oilers that might be worth trading: Eberle, Gagner, and Hemsky. With any other significant piece it would be impossible to get value back. So what I would do is set a floor price of the kind of player I want and see whether I can get it, adding in second tier prospects and picks to my side if necessary.

    That means something like:

    Eberle for OEL
    Gagner for Yandle
    Hemsky for Tyutin
    Gagner for Nikitin

    These moves would have to be made before free agency because I would then use free agency to fill the hole that was made. Trade Gagner then try and sign Matt Cullen, for instance.

  26. Reg Dunlop says:

    Oilers need some of the intensity that Richie Havens brought.

    While trying not to be a buzzkill, I am afraid that the only move this offseason will be the Gretzky statue. Should it go to the new arena site? Should it be moved to a location on 118 ave, the avenue of champions? Or should we just move it to Katz’ palatial Vancouver estate so he could jerk-off on it every morning? If Whitney and Blancmanger are re-signed I am officially cheering for the Flames.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LT,

    You’re forgetting:

    7. The Dreaded “1 for 3″ AKA the “Gaborik”

  28. smellyglove says:

    Sportsclubstats.com, after last night’s loss, has the probabilities of the Oilers picking at various positions:

    4th: 11%
    5th: 19%
    6th: 26%
    7th: 17%
    8th: 11%

    FWIW. Change on either side of the bell curve. Looks like the first tier of guys will be gone.

  29. cabbiesmacker says:

    I’m beginning to think that MacT’s most impactful move might be 86′ing RK for three reasons:

    1) Motivation? Where? The team lost pretty much every “motivation building” game this season. Many times when they looked poised to go on a little roll they promptly shit the bed, and there were a whole lot of nights when they didn’t look ready to start the game whatsoever.

    2) Lineups – has anyone here understood wtf was happening all year? Belanger in last night for what? Am I wrong in assuming an injured player could not be bought out in June? The wavering on MPS, Peckham grudge, Fistric/Potter/Whitney situations, etc. Why are the Oilers not in full-blown tank and look at some AHL’ers mode right now? We’re assessing Triangle’s performance for 13/14?

    3) System – whatever it is the players didn’t seem to get it. Unless of course the system was about being a complete CF in your own end and generating as few shots on goal as is possible.

    There’s a little bit of talk around the internet about what might happen to Babcock if the Wings fall short. I can’t see them letting him go but if there’s even a minute possibility he’s available I cut RK a cheque on the spot and have MB in his chair before it cools off. He’d be perfect for this group.

  30. supernova says:

    DBO:
    Lazy start to the day. here is a quick list of players on the teams with cap issues for next year.

    Tampa Bay – Ryan Malone, Mattias Ohlund.
    Philly – Bryzgalov, Briere, Hartnell
    Chicago – Montador, Olesz, Hjalmarsson
    Carolina – Ruutu, Gleason
    Pittsburgh – Martin, Jokinen
    San Jose – Havlat, Burns
    Rangers – Richards

    So maybe it is a deal of some prospects for these guys so the teams who have them now don’t have to spend the buyout money. A few options that may work.

    I do hope for the 3 for 1 kind of deal with someone like the Rangers for a McDonough or Del Zotto.

    Decent List,

    Wouldn’t be a shock to see these either;

    Pitt- Paul Martin (tons of other D options at better price options)
    TB- Lecavalier (Mammoth, long contract)
    Van- Ballard
    MTL- either Bourque or Kaberle if not both (only have one more compliance buyout)
    Tor- Komisarek and Liles (still has term and is their 7 th D man currently)

    I think there will be quite a few of these compliance buyouts this summer and there might be a chance to a Value contract on someone from either your list or mine.

    I really hope MacT makes the tough choices and either through regular buyout or compiance rids us of Belanger, Eager, Smyth contracts and doesn’t bring back Petrell.

    We need a fresh start in the bottom 6 aside from Horcoff and Harti.

  31. Mr DeBakey says:

    If Edmonton signs Gags for 4.5, MPS for 1.5, and Harti for 1M they have 59.6 committed to only 17 skaters and 1 goalie.

    I worked this up on Cap Geek a couple of weeks ago.
    It assumes Calgary was going to Tambo, hence Giordano.
    It assumes Belanger has been bought out.
    It assumes the outbound for Giordano is built around a Pipeline D & 2014 First.

    This helps visualize the Oilers’ Cap position next year with a few different bodies in place.

    Roster Size 23
    Salary Cap $64,300,000
    Salary Cap Payroll $68,509,042
    Bonuses $8,550,000
    Salary Cap Space $1,438,458

    Ryan N.-Hopkins $3,775,000
    Sam Gagner $4,600,000
    Shawn Horcoff $5,500,000
    Anton Lander $900,000
    Kyle Chipchura $775,000
    Marc Pouliot $750,000

    Taylor Hall $6,000,000
    Magnus Paajarvi $1,650,500
    Teemu Hartikainen $926,875
    Ryan Smyth $2,250,000

    Jordan Eberle $6,000,000
    Ales Hemsky $5,000,000
    Nail Yakupov $3,775,000
    Mike Brown $736,667

    Mark Giordano $4,020,000
    Ladislav Smid $3,500,000
    Jeff Petry $1,750,000
    Nick Schultz $3,500,000
    Denis Grebeshkov $2,250,000
    Justin Schultz $3,775,000
    Mark Fistric $1,075,000

    Devan Dubnyk $3,500,000
    Jose Theodore $1,500,000

  32. jake70 says:

    If MIke Babcock comes with an early 30s N. Lidstrom, gitter done. Don’t suspect that is the case though.

  33. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    If Edmonton signs Gags for 4.5, MPS for 1.5, and Harti for 1M they have 59.6 committed to only 17 skaters and 1 goalie. Basically they have 5M left to fill 5 positions. They pretty much have no way of bringing in anything goodwithout moving Hemsky’s 5M or buying out Horcoff. A top 4 D is going to cost around 4M and then you don’t even have any cap to fill the other positions.

    I would be shocked if Horcoff isn’t bought out. Belanger hopefully can be be moved for a late pick. Same with Smyth.

    They have 17 signed at at $52.6 right now, so did you mean $59.6 for 20 players?

    Also, they have a bonus cushion of just over $4MM that you need to factor in.

    I don’t know the exact figure (speeds knows the formula), but you get a cushion based on a portion of the bonuses that count towards the cap and $8.5MM of the Oiler’s cap next year is in bonuses for the ELCs, which probably never get paid.

  34. Maestro Fresh Mess says:

    Off topic: Has anyone heard a peep from Tambo yet? A week and a half after getting the sack and he still hasn’t spoken to the media. Weird.

  35. Obiwan Eberle says:

    Maestro Fresh Mess:
    Off topic:Has anyone heard a peep from Tambo yet?A week and a half after getting the sack and he still hasn’t spoken to the media.Weird.

    He’s still evaluating his response….your grandchildren should be able to read about though

  36. Mr DeBakey says:

    For next season, the Oilers need to sign 7 players at an average Cap Hit of $2.35 Million.
    The RFAs are included in the 7
    Very do-able.

  37. supernova says:

    Obiwan Eberle: He’s still evaluating his response….your grandchildren should be able to read about though

    Comments like this is why he hasn’t spoke out. How can he win by speaking to the Media?

    If he wants another job even as an assistant GM he will say very little, he doesn’t have the record to be vocal.

  38. Captain Happy says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    For next season, the Oilers need to sign 7 players at an average Cap Hit of $2.35 Million.
    The RFAs are included in the 7
    Very do-able.

    Unless you want to sign free agents who can actually help the team improve.

    They won’t be cheap.

  39. FastOil says:

    If there is a move made for anyone it will only make sense if it is for a two way player, including the back up goalie. Kidding about the goalie.

    What the team lacks isn’t danglers and fancy high tempo chaos, it’s solid players that don’t need to be sheltered because they can handle any player, any style, and compete. They are fully stocked with offensive talent (hopefully overstocked after the draft).

    Where they get worked is the hard, hurts a lot, not much credit given part of the game where Horcoff excels as we were shown with perfect clarity when he was hurt.

    I don’t think Yandle, Streit, etc. will help with what’s not working. They need a boring solid team first players that aren’t too pricey.

    MacT’s biggest challenge will be having possibly three rookies (with the draftee) knocking in the door and the #1 centre coming in late and possibly not 100%, and no top pairing LD. Not an easy way to have a playoff team but possible.

  40. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: They have 17 signed at at $52.6 right now, so did you mean $59.6 for 20 players?

    Also, they have a bonus cushion of just over $4MM that you need to factor in.

    I don’t know the exact figure (speeds knows the formula), but you get a cushion based ona portion of the bonuses that count towards the cap and $8.5MM of the Oiler’s cap next year is in bonuses for the ELCs, which probably never get paid.

    Yeah, I probably meant for 20 players. Still not a ton of room.

  41. DBO says:

    Do we really need another 18 year old learning on the job? I kinda want the 1st rd pick to be in play. We have next year for Nuge and Shultz entry level deals, which is a huge timeline to succeed. Adding another kid delays our post season aspirations. Yes it depends on what you get, but there are teams who would move out top end players to get themselves a top 5 pick, especially if money is a concern cap wise (Rangers, Philly, Tampa) or internal cap (Nashville, Phoenix)

    Does the 1st with a prospect or two get you
    - Hartnell and Coburn from Philly
    - Yandle and Hanzal from Phoenix
    - McDonough and Boyle from Rangers
    - Connoly, Lindback and maybe a Malone for money reasons from Tampa

    Not saying this is what I would want, but it seems like we could make a move to add 2 real NHL players that address our needs for the 1st rd pick. If it’s the 1st overall, maybe you keep it and draft Jones, but I would hope they entertain the idea of moving it for help now and in the next 3-5 years.

    Clear the useless vets, add a few solid two way players and dangle the 1st rd pick along with some of our mid level prospects for real NHLers who fill needs.

  42. bookje says:

    Maestro Fresh Mess:
    Off topic:Has anyone heard a peep from Tambo yet?A week and a half after getting the sack and he still hasn’t spoken to the media.Weird.

    They haven’t told him that he is fired. He just keeps coming to the office everyday and they are no longer pressuring him to do anything so he is really satisfied. The Smithson trade took a lot out of him.

  43. bookje says:

    One of the things MacT said in the press conference (or perhaps after in a radio interview) was something about there no longer being the Old Guys and Young Guys in the room, but that everyone would simply be an Oiler.

    I wonder if that requires a change of address for some of the ‘old guys’ who cling to the respect me because I am more senior mentality. I am convinced that Horcoff will not have the C next year and Hall will.

  44. Hammers says:

    Just give it time . Guesswork means nothing . Personally I feel McT will get something done even if its the obvious like compliance buyouts & reg buyouts . Add the UFA group and there would be 6-7 players gone . Then look at possible trades maybe a 2 or 3 for 1 and we are looking at a McT team next year with 10 players gone . All I want is more character players who give you 110% .

  45. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    The Oilers can’t move the first this year IMO, the hole at center is just to deep, 2014 first is the pick that gets moved .

    I’ve said before that if the Oilers are not in the 3-5 range then moving up is imperative.

    I honestly think the Oilers will be looking at a 3 for 1 trade, If they don’t want to move any of the kids, then this is the most likely option if the Oilers want a number 1 defensmen.

    That leaves the Oilers searching the buyouts for size up front and to fill the bottom six.

    If done right this could immediately improve the Oilers but trading any of the kids is a step backwards.

  46. cabbiesmacker says:

    DBO:
    Lazy start to the day. here is a quick list of players on the teams with cap issues for next year.

    Chicago – Montador, Olesz, Hjalmarsson

    So maybe it is a deal of some prospects for these guys so the teams who have them now don’t have to spend the buyout money. A few options that may work.

    Chicago would jump at the chance to unload two current cap buried players like Montador and Olesz but why would you want that crap?

    Hjalmarsson’s not going anywhere when he’s had a very nice year and signed at a reasonable rate for one more year.

    If you want to target the Hawks think along the lines of Stalberg, Bickell, Rozsival or Emery who are all UFA’s after this season.

    Leddy could be worth an offer sheet and his best years are ahead of him.

  47. FrankenOil says:

    DBO,

    On your list I would say:

    1) No – Philly is looking to add to their blueline so I doubt Briere is available and Hartnell is a big glue guy in their locker room. Philly is going to buy out Briere and possibly Bryzgalov and keep Pronger on LTIR to get some cap space.
    2) Not a chance that Phoenix would trade their big minutes second line C on a ridiculous value contract in Hanzal and a 50 point D-man for magic beans
    3)No – McDonough is a s close to untouchable a sit gets in NYR. Boyle is available but you don’t need to gicve up a tonne for him I am betting. I am willing to bet could be had for someone like a Hartikainen (which is a deal I would probably do) and a late round pick.
    4) No – You don’t trade high draft picks for unproven goalies (Bobrovsky went for a 2nd and 2 fourths, Lindback himself was traded to TB for 2 seconds I believe). Connolly is still on his ELC and has shown flashes and is part of their future going forward. Malone is a candidate for a buy-out or a salary dump (again, I’d investigate a cheap young FWD like Hartikainen to get it done).

    If the pick gets traded for a player, it’s going to be part of a 3-1 trade for a star player. Jordan Staal got Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and the 8th OV. Jeff Carter for Voracek, 8th OV and a 3rd rounder.

    To me, the Oilers should hang onto this pick and actually develop it properly. For all the flack Snow took (I’d say that he is getting mad props right now), he has not rushed any of his non-#1 OV first round players into the NHL since Tavares and all 4 (Strome, Nino, Reinhart, Nelson) are getting much needed development time. The trades are going to come from roster players and prospects not the draft pick. If the Oilers take Monahan for example (or other CHL player), they could play him for the 9 game audition, give him his taste, and then send him back for proper development time. If the player’s CHL team stinks (like the 67′s probably will next yr), there is a possibility the player could join the team for the playoffs or playoff race and act as a free trade deadline acquisition. This pick represents (hiopefully) the last chance to get a player who will play a major role and contribute on an ELC when this team is contending and that is something that shouldn’t be overlooked or undervalued.

  48. DBO says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Agreed, just put them on there as the buyout candidates. Don’t want them either, they just fit the bill as players who would probably be buyout candidates

  49. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    DBO,

    All the 18 year olds on the Oilers coming in we’re all better, will be better then the players on your list, further more they are the best players on the Oilers, what makes you think that will all of a sudden change?

    Not to mention that some of the players you want could be had for free in two months time, not to mention the Oilers have a huge hole a center they have to fill, and while I like Connoly, he hasn’t played a full season in the NHL .

  50. Bar_Qu says:

    bookje:

    I wonder if that requires a change of address for some of the ‘old guys’ who cling to the respect me because I am more senior mentality. I am convinced that Horcoff will not have the C next year and Hall will.

    While I agree Hall is the leader of the team going forward, if Horcoff is on the roster next season, I think he still wears the C. From the little I pay attention to it, he sounds like a real leader off the ice, both in fitness regimen and attitude. I believe the younger players use him as an example, and I also find it hard to believe he is smug or entitled based on how he presents himself in every public venue.

    But again, he has the big cap hit, which a clear-eyed GM could buy-out and replace with a similar quality of player for far less money. Studip contract.

  51. FastOil says:

    DBO:
    Do we really need another 18 year old learning on the job? I kinda want the 1st rd pick to be in play. We have next year for Nuge and Shultz entry level deals, which is a huge timeline to succeed. Adding another kid delays our post season aspirations. Yes it depends on what you get, but there are teams who would move out top end players to get themselves a top 5 pick, especially if money is a concern cap wise (Rangers, Philly, Tampa) or internal cap (Nashville, Phoenix)

    Does the 1st with a prospect or two get you
    - Hartnell and Coburn from Philly
    - Yandle and Hanzal from Phoenix
    - McDonough and Boyle from Rangers
    - Connoly, Lindback and maybe a Malone for money reasons from Tampa

    Not saying this is what I would want, but it seems like we could make a move to add 2 real NHL players that address our needs for the 1st rd pick. If it’s the 1st overall, maybe you keep it and draft Jones, but I would hope they entertain the idea of moving it for help now and in the next 3-5 years.

    Clear the useless vets, add a few solid two way players and dangle the 1st rd pick along with some of our mid level prospects for real NHLers who fill needs.

    If they draft 4th or better I’d do McDonough and Boyle for Gagner and Peckham. Let’s hope cap issues make such deals come our way.

  52. smellyglove says:

    Think the Oilers would swap their #6-8 pick for a mid-round pick, say 15-18 (to select Lazar) and pick up an additional roster player in the transaction? If we are expecting the 1st rounder to have an impact next season we are rightfully still screwed.

  53. Bar_Qu says:

    IMO, the first round pick of the Oilers this year is as untouchable as Hall. If you have to sell the farm, sell the 2014 1st rounder +. But the rate at which the Oil are dropping (Nashville will be tied with them for points and could pass later in the week) the pick is going to be too good, too high to let go. Even for Weber. Even for anyone.

    Now, next year? Well, the Oil need to gamble that one, at the very least so they have the understanding that regardless of their finish, they don’t have a high pick as insurance for a bad finish. Again, just my opinion.

  54. bookje says:

    Bar_Qu: While I agree Hall is the leader of the team going forward, if Horcoff is on the roster next season, I think he still wears the C. From the little I pay attention to it, he sounds like a real leader off the ice, both in fitness regimen and attitude. I believe the younger players use him as an example, and I also find it hard to believe he is smug or entitled based on how he presents himself in every public venue.

    Good points – I agree that Horcoff does not come across as arrogant (unlike thecaptainethanmoroue did). I just get the sense that the mantra is ‘Change’ and that will include a change of the ‘C’.

  55. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    smellyglove,

    Why on earth would the Oilers trade back to take a player who projects to be a third line RW when they could potentially take a elite C or elite LW..?

    So they could have two roster player that can be had at the beginning of every year.

    These are the picks that hardly ever get traded, these are the players that shape the Oilers future.

    Not some potential 3rd line RW. IMO

  56. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Bar_Qu,

    Well said.

  57. Gret99zky says:

    Clarkenstein:
    If anybody thinks that, in one summer,MacT is going to clean up the 10 year shitshow that KLowe has left him then they’re dreaming in Technicolor!! The cancer is deep and widespread in this organization. Essentially, you have to clean out half the team and the entire coaching staff if you want to do it right.Not sure if he wants to do this or if he is even able to do this but I see 2 to 3 years until this team is one that can compete for 82 games. But at least the President of the org. knows “something about winning”!! Right.

    This is accurate.

    2 to 3 years sounds about right.

    No way MacT can turn this around in one summer. No matter how big the brain is.

  58. LMHF#1 says:

    Wes Mantooth-11:
    DBO,

    while I likeConnoly, he hasn’t played a full season in the NHL .

    You’re wrong about that. Go look on hockeydb.

  59. Hammers says:

    Talking money . The big If. Buy out Horc & Belanger we have 14 players and 23.75 mill to spend Add Gags Magnus & Hartski for say 7.5 . add Klefbom and you still have 15 mill with 11 F , 6D & Goalie . You need 6 or 7 players with 15 million . No resigning UFA’s or the other RFA,s . For me that’s 2 / 4th liners & backup goalie for 3-3.5 leaving an average of about $3 mill each for 4 players . Thats keeping Smyth who may also be gone . There is enough for McT to play with .

  60. Ryan says:

    bookje: Good points – I agree that Horcoff does not come across as arrogant (unlike thecaptainethanmoroue did).I just get the sense that the mantra is ‘Change’ and that will include a change of the ‘C’.

    I hate to say it, especially around here, but if the Oilers have anyone that’s a buyout target, it’s Horcov.

    I know everyone briefly saw him good when he came back from injury. No doubt that upgrading from VV to Horcov was a huge one, but his offense left him a long time ago. In the past, he might have been a $3.5m cap hit centre paid @ $5.5, now he’s not even that guy.

    Our 2nd and 3rd lines have been terrible. While Horcov is not the problem, an amnesty buyout frees up a mountain of cap space and opens up a slot.

    Why are people talking about using a compliance buyout on Belanger? Sure he’s finished, but he has one year left at a $1.75m cap hit. His actually salary is $1.25m, so he might look like a 4rth line option to a non-cap team.

    According to capgeek, you can buyout Belanger at cap hit of $916, $416. At that rate, I don’t think he’s worth a compliance buyout (just a regular buyout).

  61. denny33 says:

    Bar_Qu,

    Agreed.

    Out of all the drafts this edition is not the year to be parting with 5th – 7th pick overall…

    2014 is definitely in play…

  62. bookje says:

    Ryan,

    Unless you have an ‘unused’ compliance buyout.

  63. Kris11 says:

    I suspect that Belanger gets a regular buyout, not the compliance buyout. Not sure that’s a great move, but he hasn’t been great, so it isn’t awful if it happens.

    MacT needs to add roster players to the top 9 and top 4. I don’t see how he does that without trading picks and prospects.

    There are free agents, yeah, but:

    1. Edmonton still isn’t the best destination for UFA’s

    2. The cap only allows you to add so many UFA’s, especially with Hall and Eberle and Hemsky and Horcoff.

    And I really don’t see how MacT can add good enough pieces without moving the 1st rounder. IMO, it is almost a foregone conclusion, unless they draft 4th, at which point they might keep the pick to grab one of Drouin, MacKinnon, Jones, or Barkov.

  64. Kris11 says:

    As big a fan of Horcoff and Hemsky as I am, I might dump both if you think you can get UFA forwards.

    Best bet, though, is to use the compliance buyout on Smyth. (Can they?)

    IMO, Horcoff is tradeable, especially to a team on a budget, given that his cap hit is much higher than his salary. But you only deal him if you want to keep Gagner and you can add a UFA center.

    Not sure what to do with Hemsky. Deal him for a highly paid, probably overpaid, but goodish Dman is the best option. Keeping him is second best.

    Really, all of it hangs on whether MacT can grab UFA’s. If he can, he can move other pieces around.

    If he can’t add UFA’s, then he probably needs to move out some serious picks and prospects.

  65. Ryan says:

    Bottom line is that good teams don’t pay mediocre 3rd line centres @ a cap hit of $5.5m

    I don’t watch enough league games to know the actual lineups of everyteam, but according to the Al Gore

    Montreal: Lars Eller 3C: $1.325
    Ottawa: Pageau: $ 0.575 / Zibanjad: $1.586
    Kings: Stoll: $3.25
    Chicago: Shaw: $0.565
    Wild: Cullen: $3.5
    Blues: Bergeland: $2.25
    Yotes: Gordon: $1.325
    Sharks: Pavelski: $4m

    From my random list which bound to have errors (due to injuries / my ignorance of other team’s line combos, etc), Pavelski’s the only guy close in price.

    Pavelski has a cap hit of $1.5 m less than Horcov

    Horcov: GP 28: 7-4-11 .39 ppg
    Pavelski: GP 45: 15-14-29 .64ppg

    Any what you slice it or try to rationalize it (i.e. making the argument that Horcoff’s way too expensive, but they can’t find a better 3c, so keep him), in my mind they have to use a compliance buyout on him.

    At the end of the day, it’s far too much dead cap space to ignore. There’s decent money that you could find an upgrade on Horcov in the $2m or less range. Even a player who was par or slight downgrade, but far cheaper gives you cap dollars to spend somewhere else.

  66. Ryan says:

    bookje:
    Ryan,

    Unless you have an ‘unused’ compliance buyout.

    Well, don’t they have until next year to use both compliance buyouts? That’s my understanding and I would torpedo Horcov on one and save the other.

  67. Ryan says:

    Kris, we can dream but then there’s a time to wake up.

    Cap aside, next year Horcov cost $4m real dollars. If I were a GM of a hockey team looking for a $4m centre, his name wouldn’t be on my list.

    The year after, he’ll cost $3m real dollars.

    Let me ask you this, if he was a UFA and you were a GM, what cap hit or real $ price tag would get you excited about acquiring Horcov?

    For a 34 y/o centre whose offense dried up awhile back, I wouldn’t make any calls for him at anything over $2m myself.

    As a reality check:

    Belanger was signed at $1.75m. I imagine the Oilers were thinking he was what Horcov is now. He also put up a hair under .5ppg for the Yotes prior to playing for the Oilers.

    In comparison, Horcoff’s last two seasons are .42 (last year) and .39 ppg (this year).

    Obviously they were wrong, but there smart people (including Lowetide) who thought Belanger might have more offense than Horcov prior to him playing for the Oilers.

    At any rate, you would need to make a very compelling argument to convince me that there’s any market for Horcov at $4m or even $3m real dollars.

    Kris11:
    As big a fan of Horcoff and Hemsky as I am, I might dump both if you think you can get UFA forwards.

    Best bet, though, is to use the compliance buyout on Smyth. (Can they?)

    IMO, Horcoff is tradeable, especially to a team on a budget, given that his cap hit is much higher than his salary. But you only deal him if you want to keep Gagner and you can add a UFA center.

    Not sure what to do with Hemsky. Deal him for a highly paid, probably overpaid, but goodish Dman is the best option. Keeping him is second best.

    Really, all of it hangs on whether MacT can grab UFA’s. If he can, he can move other pieces around.

    If he can’t add UFA’s, then he probably needs to move out some serious picks and prospects.

  68. thebiggestmanintheworld says:

    Ryan: Any what you slice it or try to rationalize it (i.e. making the argument that Horcoff’s way too expensive, but they can’t find a better 3c, so keep him), in my mind they have to use a compliance buyout on him.
    At the end of the day, it’s far too much dead cap space to ignore. There’s decent money that you could find an upgrade on Horcov in the $2m or less range. Even a player who was par or slight downgrade, but far cheaper gives you cap dollars to spend somewhere else.

    This^^

  69. cabbiesmacker says:

    Ryan:
    Bottom line is that good teams don’t pay mediocre 3rd line centres @ a cap hit of $5.5m

    I don’t watch enough league games to know the actual lineups of everyteam, but according to the Al Gore

    Montreal:Lars Eller 3C:$1.325
    Ottawa:Pageau:$ 0.575/ Zibanjad:$1.586
    Kings:Stoll:$3.25
    Chicago:Shaw:$0.565
    Wild:Cullen:$3.5
    Blues:Bergeland:$2.25
    Yotes:Gordon:$1.325
    Sharks:Pavelski:$4m

    From my random list which bound to have errors (due to injuries / my ignorance of other team’s line combos, etc), Pavelski’s the only guy close in price.

    Pavelski has a cap hit of $1.5 m less than Horcov

    Horcov:GP 28: 7-4-11.39 ppg
    Pavelski:GP 45:15-14-29.64ppg

    Joe P plays top 6 in San Jose but point taken.

    I calm myself through the whole Horcoff situation by not thinking of him as the third best C on the team. That spots reserved for Gagner from my view. during last night’s game, the 20 minutes of it I watched anyways, I played watch gagner and count the stupid plays. I think I stopped around 8.

    The lob pass to nobody and subsequent loss of possession and rush into the Oiler zone forced me to switch to Billy Connelly’s Route 66 documentary.

  70. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ryan: There’s decent money that you could find an upgrade on Horcov in the $2m or less range.Even a player who was par or slight downgrade,

    How many such players were signed for that kind of money during the last two off-seasons?

    That’s a sincere question, by the way, not a “Boy are you ever full of shit” phrased as a question.

  71. fifthcartel says:

    Flames and Predators trying to out-tank us. Not sure who to cheer for in this, Nashville could tie us but we have the ROW, and Calgary could give us a nice healthy lead. Ahh!!

  72. mps91 says:

    THis is the summer for a 3 for 1 type deal, if ever there was one. Cap is going down, lots of teams will feel the squeeze.

    Dealing our 1st this year is also very shortsighted. We have abysmal organizational depth down the middle so we need to add to it through this draft in the worst way.

  73. BlueNoteNorth says:

    Traktor: If Edmonton signs Gags for 4.5, MPS for 1.5, and Harti for 1M they have 59.6 committed to only 17 skaters and 1 goalie. Basically they have 5M left to fill 5 positions.

    Using your numbers the actual cap salary would be $48.3M.

    The ELCs have performance bonuses that really pad their numbers.

    Schedule A bonuses ($850K max) are individual bonuses and are often attainable, while Schedule B bonuses (max $2M) are league bonuses and are much more difficult to attain. Plus a team is allowed to exceed the cap a bit if bonuses put you over – trouble is it eats into the following year.

    With next year’s cap at $64.3M and a buyout of Belanger, the Oilers could safely spend $13M on the remaining 6 players and still have $3M in reserve to help addresses raises for N-Hopkins, J Schultz, Petry, and Dubnyk in 2014-15.

    And still retain Horcoff and Hemsky if need be.

    $13M – $16M for 6 players – lots of room to get creative there.

  74. Gret99zky says:

    One thing I’ve learned from reading this blog nearly everyday since ~2007: You don’t suggest buying-out/trading Horcoff or Hemsky. Untouchable.

  75. stevezie says:

    I think that Nuge being an underpaid 1st line centre will balance Horc being an overpaid 3rd liner next season (he does get bought out in 2014 though). I also think that we keep Hemsky.

    This team’s biggest problem is depth. We have two guys whose age, injury history and caphit give them poor trade value, but whose on-ice history suggests that they will be contributors next season.

    When you have no depth you do not trade to fill needs because the needs are everywhere.

    Unless we’re getting better hockey players than we give we say no to the trade and hang on to hockey players. If you’re not going to win your team caphit is irrelevant.

    If cheaper replacements come calling that changes things, but I don’t see any this summer. I think a new D comes in a trade and costs around 4-5 million, and we can afford that. This probably means we skimp on the 4th line, but if you skimp on the right guys this is fine.

    Related note: Talk that Yakupov replaces Hemsky drives me nuts (heard in the streets more than here). Injuries are a certainty. If next year our third line has Horcoff and Hemsky that will be a very good thing.

  76. "Steve Smith" says:

    Gret99zky,

    Something like half the regular commentators here are in favour of doing one or both of those things.

  77. tcho says:

    That Ritchie Havens performance of Freedom has always been my favourite part of the Woodstock movie. R.I.P. Mr. Havens.

    I’m actually not sure how much “boldness” is required. I’d just prefer better decision making.

    Obscured in the morass this season is quickly becoming, is the real progress of the young core. Hall is a splendid top line option. RNH, in his second season as a nineteen year old playing with one and a half arms, looked like the second coming of Datsyuk. Yakupov looks very promising. Ditto Schultz. MPS is the real deal (and young!). Dubby did damn well on such a shite defensive team, etc.

    What sunk this team is not so much being overly patient, but the shite (sometimes just in retrospect) decisions to plug holes in the lineup (Belanger, Eager, Khabby, etc.), or the seeming (and baffling!) inability to perceive holes in the lineup (Khabby, Whitney, lack of centre depth, not acquiring a top 4 d).

    Management needs to make GOOD decisions on who they bring in. Sadly, due to the finish we look sure to have, we’re going to have to hugely overpay on any obvious free agents to have a shot (difference between “on the cusp,” and decided also-rans), OR unearth some overlooked gems (not the strong suit of this group thus far).

    No GM is going to be perfect with player acquisition, but MacT needs to improve dramatically in this department vs. Tambellini or we will suck again next year.

  78. delooper says:

    Gret99zky: well you can of course trade them but they’re valuable players on the team. Get rid of Horcoff and you have one player left on the Oilers that can take a faceoff. Hemsky is a very good offensive player with a reasonable contract and is a good fit for the team. If anything the only problem with Hemsky is the Oilers don’t have enough at centre for him to work with.

  79. Gret99zky says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Gret99zky,

    Something like half the regular commentators here are in favour of doing one or both of those things.

    Right. Followed by the “Bazinga!”

    Horcoff and Hemsky are Gods round these parts.

  80. Gret99zky says:

    delooper:
    Gret99zky: well you can of course trade them but they’re valuable players on the team.Get rid of Horcoff and you have one player left on the Oilers that can take a faceoff. Hemsky is a very good offensive player with a reasonable contract and is a good fit for the team. If anything the only problem with Hemsky is the Oilers don’t have enough at centre for him to work with.

    Exactly.

    Horcoff and Hemsky are the two most valuable players on the team. Horcoff wins all the important face-offs and Hemsky is a bad, bad man!

    Let’s face it. This team would be far worse if it wasn’t for Horcoff and Hemsky.

    Like I said. UNTOUCHABLE.

  81. "Steve Smith" says:

    Gret99zky,

    In this thread alone:

    Traktor identifies doing one of those things as essential.
    Bar Qu suggests that a clear-eyed GM could buy Horcoff out and replace him for less money.
    Ryan suggests that Horcoff needs to be bought out.
    TheBiggestManInTheWorld agrees.
    Kris11 suggests that he would dump both Horcoff and Hemsky if you could get UFA forwards.
    Captain Obvious identifies Hemsky as one of only three Oilers potentially worth trading.

    Nary a bazinga nor an excommunication in the bunch.

    (It appears that my admittedly brief hiatus is tentatively over; please tell me if I start to be a dick. Somebody – FastOil? – did last time, and he was right.)

  82. tcho says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    So far, imo, just telling it like it is.

  83. Gret99zky says:

    Wait a little while.

    The Horcoff and Hemsky crowd will be by shortly. Stats in hand. The Horc signal takes a while to be seen at this time of day.

    And I hightly doubt the old new GM is going to trade or buyout two of his favorites. One being Katz’s neighbour.

    Hey, I am all for moving those two out but to speak of it realistically happening especially in light of how feverishly the two are defended around here seems, well, unrealistic.

  84. Spydyr says:

    bookje: They haven’t told him that he is fired.He just keeps coming to the office everyday and they are no longer pressuring him to do anything so he is really satisfied. The Smithson trade took a lot out of him.

    Just don’t screw with his stapler.

  85. godot10 says:

    1) If it’s me, I keep Horcoff one more season, and compliance buyout him after next season.

    2) Grebeshkov is a good idea.

    3) Offer sheet Gunnarsson at near the max 2nd round compensation level. If this fails, try the same with Chris Tanev.

    4) Go after Streit if he comes to market.

    5) Explore a trade for Hjalmarsson. He should be available since Chicago has to sign Leddy. While your at it, see if Bolland is available.

    6) See if you can get Rundblad (or one of the prospect D) out of Phoenix for Hemsky.

    7) After Philly complaince buyouts Briere, sign him to a cheap one-year deal to take Nugent-Hopkins spot at the start of the season.

  86. stevezie says:

    Gret99zky,

    The only thing you can’t do is state something you consider self-evident (Horcoff, Hemsky, Fighting, Corsi or Joy Division being good/bad are all fine examples) and not be prepared to defend your position.

    For example, you’re claiming that no one on here suggests trading Horcoff or Hemsky. The fact that this is demonstrably untrue is raised, and you’re left saying “Trust me, bra” and deliberately misinterpreting Delooper’s words so you can pretend you’re right. Even though you’re not right.

    Huh. I guess you can do that. So that makes me the asshole.

    All seriousness aside I’m shocked at how little groupthink happens here. Tambellini is regularily defended, ffs. The only thing pervasive (to my eye, I have no stats), is pessimism and bitterness. Which I guess I am exhibiting by snapping at you, but if Steve Smith is playing nice then I’m taking his quota.

  87. stevezie says:

    godot10,

    http://50missioncap.wordpress.com/2013/04/08/why-youre-wrong-the-leafs-arent-better-because-of-randy-carlyle/ Leads me to believe that Gunnarsson and Gardiner are dangerously unappreciated in their current home. I would explore those options fairly aggresively, especially since I’d be more than happy to take Grabovski in a salary dump (his character concerns, which for once seemed legit, are behind him, right?)

  88. godot10 says:

    stevezie,

    Gunnarsson is a good target because he is 26 and competent and one should be able to get him for $3 million per season.

    The Leafs have to sign Franson, and have Liles signed to a no-move for three more years. Fraser and Franson have been a decent pairing, and they have Gardiner and Rielly coming on the left side. They also have Holzinger signed to a one-way for the next two years also, I think.

    I prefer Gunnarsson because I want a 2-way D who can play good defense. Gardiner really can’t yet. No room for two chaos guys in Gardiner and Justin Schultz.

    Toronto could compliance buyout Liles and keep Gunnarsson, but Liles is an expensive buyout in real dollars.

  89. Captain Happy says:

    godot10:
    stevezie,

    Gunnarsson is a good target because he is 26 and competent and one should be able to get him for $3 million per season.

    The Leafs have to sign Franson, and have Liles signed to a no-move for three more years.Fraser and Franson have been a decent pairing, and they have Gardiner and Rielly coming on the left side.They also have Holzinger signed to a one-way for the next two years also, I think.

    I prefer Gunnarsson because I want a 2-way D who can play good defense.Gardiner really can’t yet.No room for two chaos guys in Gardiner and Justin Schultz.

    Toronto could compliance buyout Liles and keep Gunnarsson, but Liles is an expensive buyout in real dollars.

    MLSE has more money than Croesus.

    Actual dollars don’t mean a thing to them.

    They’ll buy out Komisarek and run with the group they have.

    That they have Gunnarsson, Gardiner, Franson, Rielly and Finn as young defensemen on the way up is a testament to Burke’s belief that you build from the back end out.

    Nonis is Burke’s disciple so don’t expect that to change.

    The Oilers likely could have made a play for Franson last season but that train has sailed…like so many others.

    In other news…Frankie Corrado made his NHL debut last night for the Canucks and was stellar, picking up third star of the game.

    Looks like the Canucks may have uncovered a gem in the fifth round to go with that Tanev kid.

  90. Gret99zky says:

    stevezie,

    Fair enough.

    My main point is Horcoff and Hemsky are often portrayed as saviours and somehow un-replaceable on this blog.

    It rattles me because I have felt for a very long time that Horcoff is the wrong leader for this team and Hemsky is overated by Oiler fans.

    I probably should have stated that clearly at the get go rather than skirting around the issue.

    I patiently await two important “sail on” posts and brighter days ahead.

  91. stevezie says:

    Gret99zky,

    Ha! I always found Hemsky underrated by Oiler fans. Having taken a first year psychology class, I know there is a term that completely explains both our perceptions.

    *I fully admit I watch hockey as a fan first and a wannabe GM second, which leads me to love players who do things I like watching, like Hemsky and Fistric.

    godot10,

    You make a good case for Gunner. My only comeback is that if Toronto says Gardiner is the guy they want to move, I am in no mood to be picky.

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