OILERS AT DUCKS, G39 (12-13) 8.4.13

The Oilers have another huge game tonight in their playoff drive (14.7% chance), and depending on your point of view they have a very good or subpar goaltender behind them.

dd11

That’s some pretty good company there, tied for 11th overall in the entire NHL. There was some concern about his EV SP, which is now .923 and ranks 20th among goalies with 15 games or more this season. I’d say that’s some solid goaltending, certainly not a “weak link” position. You’ll get arguments, but for me Dubnyk is solid as a starter for the first few years of the window.

fistric2

Coach Krueger has been talking about inserting Mark Fistric into the rotation for tonight’s game, it’s going to be interesting to see who draws out. If the coach doesn’t dress Ryan Whitney, what does that tell us about assets at the deadline? Also, Ryan Jones not dressing for the LAK game on Saturday is the same thing. You have Teemu Hartikainen waiting for insertion into the lineup after earning the opportunity, and I understand if Jones is the preference of the coach. Interesting then that he’s a HS in the first game the new hire was available.

stapleton and ferguson

That’s John Ferguson in the Montreal uniform. He was probably the first powerforward, although he was called policeman or enforcer. Ferguson came to the NHL at 25 after spending a year in the IHL and three more in the AHL. The NHL was the top league but had only 6 teams, and those teams rolled three lines. So, there were exactly 18 jobs for left wingers in 1963, and Ferguson won one of them for his toughness.

But he could also play:

ferguson 63

That’s October of 1963, Ferguson’s rookie season. He was on the top line in the NHL, Beliveau-Ferguson-Geoffrion. This would have been Frank Selke (Sam Pollock would take over the following season) and it paid off in a big way. Ferguson provided toughness, Beliveau skill and Geoffrion was the shooter. The  Habs would romp through the 1960′s, with Ferguson a big part of the team.

I don’t think there’s a fan alive who couldn’t see the value Ferguson brought to Montreal in 1963.

DO IT AGAIN

I also don’t think there’s a fan alive who wouldn’t see the value a similar player might bring to Edmonton in 2013. The problem with the Oilers big men isn’t size, it’s skill. The Edmonton Oilers procurement department have gathered up a bunch of skill guys who are average or undersize, and because they don’t have enough actual NHL players (and that’s too easy an answer, apparently) people cast about for reasons and come upon the usual argument–too many undersized players. “We’re getting pushed around” and “they’re running our show!” we hear over and over again.

IF the guy who can play is also a bigger player? MUSIC!

The argument Oiler fans have been having (let’s call it Omark v Jacques) disappears if the Oilers can hire big, skilled men. Did any of the math people or the saw him good crowd bitch about Bill Guerin?

No. This is about size AFTER skill has been established.

A very young Barbi Benton is dancing with Hugh Hefner right at the end of the video. Wow.

gyj.jpg

 

Oilers are 4 points behind Detroit with a game in hand. Tonight’s game–and this week–is massive. By the time we hit the radio show Saturday we’ll know one way or another. A good week here and the Oilers will still be in it. A bad one? The Saturday show will be less about the playoffs, and more about the summer.

okc11

 

I don’t know if you’re still following the Barons’ season but they had a big weekend. Tend the Farm is a splendid resource and Neal’s post-game last night is a terrific read. It also shows a pulse for some struggling prospects:

  • The “2nd Round” line of Curtis Hamilton – Ryan Martindale – Tyler Pitlick played the best stretch of hockey the three have played, together or separate, in a very long time. Hamilton, with his great hands. Martindale, with his face off winning marvels. Pitlick, with his strong play around the boards. Combined they are Teemu Hartikainen, but separate they bring a very unique wrinkle to the Barons third line. I’d like to see this again, and more often.

Sad story about Kelly Jay, former member of Crowbar is here. Dammit.

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403 Responses to "OILERS AT DUCKS, G39 (12-13) 8.4.13"

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  1. BlacqueJacque says:

    I am considerably concerned about our lack of NHL defencemen, and the pending weak free agent group.

    Draft picks are at a premium at the draft and maybe we can finagle a good defender for a second round pick.

  2. sliderule says:

    For the rest of the season I am going to count the following

    The number of times the announcer says oilers caught on a line change giving two on one or breakaway to opposition

    The number of shots the opposition gets from slot

    The number of shots the oilers get from slot

  3. nelson88 says:

    I noticed the “2nd round line” in last nights boxscores as well. Playing Hamilton, Martindale and Pitlick together makes a great deal of sense and I hope they keep them together for a “2nd line” in OKC next year.

    As stated in my post last week on the cup winning Hawks. Their supporting cast of; mostly homegrown, 23 – 26 year olds were critical to putting them over the top. Let’s hope Stu really is a Magnificent Bastard.

  4. godot10 says:

    Whitney and Jones are still Oilers because other GM’s know what we know. They are bad hockey players. Whitney is a pure power play specialist at this point, and in the playoffs that is not really a luxury most playoff teams can afford. Depth D who can play defense are far more important than a power play specialist.

    If somebody had offered a 2nd round draft pick for Whitney, he would have been gone. The Oilers were likely only offered a late rounder, like Boston offered for Redden. Taking a late round draft pick for Whitney or Jones would have bad optics, and perhaps bad for morale.

    Chiarelli has made very few bad moves as a GM.

    **Jones was a complete valueless throw in in the 2nd rounder for Bishop offer, because the OIlers had to do the Smithson deal to get a centre, so if they got Bishop, they had to get rid of a contract in the deal. Ottawa would have no interest in Jones the player.

  5. justDOit says:

    Is the Kelly Jay mention a tie-in to the Oilers’ struggles to stay away from the 50 contract limit?

  6. Gret99zky says:

    Dubey with the 3rd most games played on that list as well. (Bernier with less than half GP) Only 7 on that list with 20+ GP. Dubey has been better than expected IMO.

    My take on the size thing: I think the Oilers are capable of pushing back (or team toughness) we have seen it from Yak, Hall, Smid, Hemmer and some of the other more emotional players.

    However, too many times these guys are scared to start something that might have to be finished. Like punching the bully at school. You might have dance the whole recess with him.

  7. slopitch says:

    I cant see the Oilers using their 1st to get a dman. CBJ and CGY are gonna be offering one of their picks for players so the value wont be as high as it should. Its a deep draft, keep the pick. The only way I see the Oilers addressing D (and I mean top pairing) is a hockey trade or finding a player we becomes available because of salary/cap.

    But who cares (for now). LT is right, these next games are huge!

  8. nelson88 says:

    I’m not a large guy by any stretch and managed to play many contact sports at a relatively high level based purely on tenacity and never backing down. However; even as a strong believer in those principles it is pretty clear the Oilers do need to change the mix in their top 9. It’s no coincidence that teams that want to trade chances with the Oilers usually lose (often times in spectacular fashion ;) but bigger, skilled teams that make the Oil fight for every inch of space grind them down. Unfortunately the latter type of game usually takes over late in the season and in the playoffs.

    Some of the needed change will come naturally with physical maturity of Hall, MPS, RNH, Schutlz Jr. etc. but finding skill and size should be a priority. Agree that to date those efforts have been very inadequate.

  9. bookje says:

    I’m tired and am simply at the point where I don’t care at all if they win or not. It’s an attitude that will stick with me until they win a few games and are in serious contention for the playoffs – at that point I am sure I will care again – probably more than I rationally should. Then if they lose a few, I won’t care again.

    I think I will name this little sad story “Coping with Life as an Oilers Fan”

  10. gcw_rocks says:

    You just have to love how Edmonton’s management goes out of their way to prove, beyond any reasonable doubt, what a collection of morons they really are.

    Fire them all to be safe!

  11. WeridAl says:

    Been watching the Baron games and it looks like Pitlick is getting back into form after the that injury that kept him out. Hamilton has look good the last couple of weeks, still inconsistent, but there is a improvement.

    John Ferguson as the 1st power forward, that’s a stretch, have you not heard of a player named Gordie Howe.

  12. jonrmcleod says:

    I think I will approach this game with one of my Dad’s favorite sayings in mind: “If I stay up and watch the game and they lose, I’ll be mad that I stayed up. But if I go to bed and find out in the morning that they won, I’ll be happy.” (The game starts at 11:00 p.m. here on the East Coast.)

  13. jfry says:

    This size argument is funny. I can’t wait til we trade away all our skill and are huge and people are still complaining that we suck. We’re not a tenacious team, which has nothing to do with size. We roll off hits and wave sticks to fill lanes. When we had Penner people complained that he played small even though he was a possession monster. There’s no winning some of these debates, because they’re not debates but just merry-go-rounds.

    Until someone can show a definitive link between size and our current deficiencies (getting outshot at a Herculean rate and inability to break out), the size argument isn’t that interesting. It’s like the bs love story in a war movie.

    This blog used to be all about numbers now it’s about people pretending to be the coach and gm. Lt, you might as well start talking about fantasy hockey rotisserie league techniques because that’s where the commentary always ends up going, basically.

  14. G Money says:

    sliderule:
    For the rest of the season I am going to count the following

    The number of times the announcer says oilers caught on a line change giving two on one or breakaway to opposition

    The number of shots the opposition gets from slot

    The number of shots the oilers get from slot

    My favourite metric to track is the number of times an Oiler player has clear possession in the defensive zone, then waits around like a deer in the headlights until the forecheck pressure arrives, resulting in a turnover and a strong cycle by the opposition (and usually multiple scoring chances).

    Usually runs into a couple during wins and 8 or more in losses…

  15. Factotum says:

    Looks like they’ll have to go 7-2-1 (if not 8-2) from here on out, with 3 games against Anaheim, 2 against Minnesota, and 1 each against Chicago and Vancouver. They’ll finish the season with 5 games in 7 nights. The only good news is that 7 of the 10 games are at home and there’s a chance the last half-dozen won’t mean much to the opposition.

    A regulation loss tonight and they’ll just about have to win out. To anyone still holding out hope, these next two games are huge.

  16. Gret99zky says:

    sliderule:
    For the rest of the season I am going to count the following

    The number of times the announcer says oilers caught on a line change giving two on one or breakaway to opposition

    The number of shots the opposition gets from slot

    The number of shots the oilers get from slot

    I’d like to see those numbers as well. Please post. Also add toe drags and blind drop passes to no one at the opposing blue. Thanks.

  17. denny33 says:

    Even ST’s family and friends would have tough time saying that….

    Simple stuff – “virtually no supply of players – unprecedented demand’” this past trade deadline…

    Ryan Whitney could have been moved for a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Even the Calgary organization figured out just how slow Regehr was…and that was in 2010.

    Marc Fistric could have been moved for a high pick if we are not going to play him?

    Why did we keep him if we are just going to store him in the press box?

    No return ( of any kind ? ) for numerous assets fits the management style perfectly.

    It is about your managements philosophy – you ALWAYS want SOMETHING for your asset.
    ( wee Wade Redden deal )

    We can debate about the *value* all day – but the philosophy of a return on asset should be ironclad.

    Further, does any here really believe our chances for making the playoffs were enhanced by keeping Fistric in the press box or watching Ryan Jones try to take a pass?

    That whole – what kind of ‘message ‘ would that send to the team to move out some players…is straight from the Edmonton PR guys.

    The PR talking points have even filtered into this forum…

  18. Bar_Qu says:

    jfry,

    ???

    I always felt the best discussions revolved around using numbers as a starting point then discussing in a more rhetorical(discussion) format. Like, for example, pointing out DD has a good save %, which is consistent with his progress over the past three years and stating the number 1 G position is solid for the first time in forever.

    But that’s just me and my humanist (vs data discipline) approach to life.

  19. Gret99zky says:

    If they can win 5 out of the remaining 10, or 10 points, I’d say that’s a nice improvement from last year. Anything lower than a 25th place finish overall is not acceptable, IMO.

    Bottom five=nuke it from orbit. Only way to be sure. (Management, that is.)

  20. Bar_Qu says:

    denny33,

    This. +1

  21. asiaoil says:

    How about the optics of actually making the team better by moving out guys who cannot play (Whitney, Jones, Peckham) and moving in guys who can? Always an excuse from the Clowns on Kingsway.

  22. Lois Lowe says:

    Jones was the obvious HS when Smithsen was brought in. Smyth moves up to 3LW and Petrell retains his 4LW job. You can argue that Jones should have taken Petrell’s spot but really that’s like saying “You can lose, or you can lose; those are your options.” I’ll defer to the coach.

  23. Gret99zky says:

    Will the effectiveness of a Calgary rebuild (or whatever they are calling it) have any negative affects on Oiler management?

    If Calgary finishes ahead of Edmonton next year do head roll in the capital?

  24. Truth Movement says:

    Jim Matheson: “I suspect [Whitney]’d take three years at $3.25 million per season from the Oilers.”

    Cannot…comprehend…

    Is it possible that Oilers management is this idiotic?

  25. WeridAl says:

    Gret99zky,

    Edmonton was the joke of the league, when they officially started their rebuild and team and organization was a mess. The same cannot be said about the Flames, they still have a pretty good core to work with until their prospects develop. The Flames big problem is their GM. The Oilers did a complete rebuild, were the Flames are are doing a partial.

  26. regwald says:

    WeridAl:
    Gret99zky,

    Edmonton was the joke of the league, when they officially started their rebuild and team and organization was a mess. The same cannot be said about the Flames, they still have a pretty good core to work with until their prospects develop. The Flames big problem is their GM. The Oilers did a complete rebuild, were the Flames are are doing a partial.

    I don’t Calgary’s big problem is the GM. He may look ineffective, but their biggest problem is that the owners do not want a rebuild, won’t support a rebuild and want to pretend they are a couple of trades and FA signings away from sneaking into 7 or 8, bank some playoff money and hope and pray for a 2004 or 2006 style playoff run.

  27. TheOtherJohn says:

    WeridAl: Gret99zky, Edmonton was the joke of the league, when they officially started their rebuild and team and organization was a mess. The same cannot be said about the Flames, they still have a pretty good core to work with until their prospects develop. The Flames big problem is their GM. The Oilers did a complete rebuild, were the Flames are are doing a partial.

    What is the pretty good core to build around?

  28. godot10 says:

    If the Oilers improve the puck-moving ability of the defense, the impact of size in the forwards matter sless, if the D can get the puck to the forwards faster and more accurately.

    Speed and the ability to move the puck quickly neutralizes size. Still big and fast and skilled is better than small and fast and skilled.

  29. rickithebear says:

    We are the 2nd best PP-PK goal differential team in the league.
    PP:
    Horc 10.54 GF/60;
    Hemsky 10.53;
    RNH 9.63;
    Hartikainen 9.52;
    Eberle 8.99
    Hall 8.60
    Gagner 8.58
    Yakupov 7.98
    MP 7.48

    P/60
    Gagner 7.97
    Hall 6.88
    Hemsky 5.92
    Yakupov 5.32
    RNH 4.81
    Hartilainen 4.76
    Eberle 4.49
    Horcoff 3.16

    PK:
    Gagner 1.83 GA/60
    Smithson 3.42
    Smyth 4.08
    Horcoff 4.41
    Belanger 5.63
    Pettrell 5.89

    So our problem is even. Results for situation.

    Our even plus players last 4 seasons;
    09-10: Hemsky +7; Penner +6; Stortini +3; Jones even
    10-11: Hemsky +3; Horc -1
    11-12: Gagner +5; Eberle +4; Eager -1; RNH -2
    12-13: Hall +5; Horc +3; RNH +2; Jones +1; Belnger Even; Eberle -2; Smyth -3

    As we move forward:
    Can we get better even results without affecting Special teams.

    From the special teams we see

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    MP-Gagner-XXX
    Harti-Horc-Yakupov
    Smyth-Smithson-XXX

    Is there a way to get corsi counts for the varying Shift starts.
    OZ faceoff
    NZ face off
    DZ FO
    DZ Puck control Change
    OZ Puck control change
    OZ Opposition Puck Control Change.
    NZ on Fly Puck Control
    NZ opposition Control.
    we might get a better idea of situational Corsi.
    And who is best at what. versus a players overall shift count.

    i want to know what direction a player drives the puck.
    If they are put in a chase or drive position from draws and on the fly.
    Some of the time a corsi value is the result of the shift before and charged to the players on the next shift.
    Until there are real transition numbers we cannot be sure.
    With that much dought about who deseves what corsi count
    I will go with +/- being more accurate than Corsi.
    Since goals include the other teams abilty to prevent the final desired results.

    Corsi does not take that into Account.
    Corsi being a poorer measure of a teams defensive and scoring ability versus +/-.

  30. G Money says:

    Truth Movement:
    Jim Matheson:“I suspect [Whitney]’d take three years at $3.25 million per season from the Oilers.”

    Cannot…comprehend…

    Is it possible that Oilers management is this idiotic?

    I just came on here to comment about exactly that. That is an astonishing number.

    I feel bad for Whitney – a talented puck-moving defenseman done in by bad feet.

    But $3.25M to be a third-pairing guy who leaks goals so badly he needs a solid 2nd or 1st pairing calibre defensive defenseman beside him just to break even … no thanks.

    At $1M/year, it would be intriguing. That’s it.

  31. bookje says:

    First, let’s not jump to any assumptions about the Oilers re-signing Whitney until it happens.

    Second, according to Vollaman Charts , Whitney is not really much worse this year than he has been all career.

    So, are the charts wrong or has Whitney always been a not very good defenseman in any way? 2009 and 2010 were ok, but certainly not ‘big money’ kind of play.

  32. bookje says:

    WeridAl: ll have a pretty good core to work wit

    I would actually argue that Edmonton had more talent in their system in 2008 than Calgary does now.

  33. rickithebear says:

    You can get a league average of corsi for these.
    OZ faceoff
    NZ face off
    DZ FO
    DZ Puck control Change
    OZ Puck control change
    OZ Opposition Puck Control Change.
    NZ on Fly Puck Control
    NZ opposition Control.
    Compare the players Corsi versus average.
    then based on shift count you can get an expected Corsi based on cummulative Situation. Are they + or -.

    Come on Corsi guys.
    Get it right!

  34. dessert1111 says:

    Truth Movement:
    Jim Matheson:“I suspect [Whitney]’d take three years at $3.25 million per season from the Oilers.”

    I’m sure he would. If I’m the Oilers, I might offer him 1 year at minimum salary, but he wouldn’t take that anyway. Probably should’ve been traded at the deadline, he and a few others are going to walk for nothing now, though in Whitney’s case I imagine that the Oilers might have gotten a somewhat decent pick for him, perhaps not so much for the other UFAs.

  35. jdubbs says:

    out of that 2nd round line why wouldn’t Matindale be considered to come up and play the wing in the top 9? he’s got size, speed, defensively responsible and scored at junior. plus he can take draws and fill in at C. he’s not scoring at the same clip as he was in junior but with the right linemates i think he could be a player. although not sure if he would be comfortable at wing and would be nice if he was a RHS

  36. TheOtherJohn says:

    LT

    Thought you would like this:

    http://www.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26045617&partnerId=as_mlb_20130406_6934064

    A mere 61 years with 1 organization

  37. delooper says:

    I doubt the Oilers make the playoffs but I think as long as they finish this season reasonably-well it can be chalked-up as a big step forward. There’s so many people here that pathologically dwell on the negatives. Even if the Oilers stink-out the rest of the season, this has been a pretty big step forward. Be happy folks. If the Oilers can get 2 pts out of this game, and crush the weaker opposition for the remainder of the season, that puts them just a couple wins away from a playoff spot. Not bad, and not impossible.

  38. jp says:

    jdubbs:
    out of that 2nd round line why wouldn’t Matindale be considered to come up and play the wing in the top 9? he’s got size, speed, defensively responsible and scored at junior. plus he can take draws and fill in at C. he’s not scoring at the same clip as he was in junior but with the right linemates i think he could be a player. although not sure if he would be comfortable at wing and would be nice if he was a RHS

    From what I’ve seen and read Martindale is not physical nor is he defensively responsible. He’s certainly got size and some skill, but he’s got a ways to go before he’s a call up option.

  39. jp says:

    Truth Movement:
    Jim Matheson:“I suspect [Whitney]’d take three years at $3.25 million per season from the Oilers.”

    Cannot…comprehend…

    Is it possible that Oilers management is this idiotic?

    That possibility is chilling.

    G Money: I just came on here to comment about exactly that.That is an astonishing number.

    I feel bad for Whitney – a talented puck-moving defenseman done in by bad feet.

    But $3.25M to be a third-pairing guy who leaks goals so badly he needs a solid 2nd or 1st pairing calibre defensive defenseman beside him just to break even … no thanks.

    At $1M/year, it would be intriguing.That’s it.

    Even at 1M it’d be as much Meh as intriguing.

    3X3.25M would be unspeakable.

  40. Bar_Qu says:

    jdubbs,

    Just based on what we have seen with Martindale (& Hamilton & Pilick, for that matter) these guys need more time at a pro level to even out their game. Bringing them up too soon causes their inadequacies to be exposed and hinders their development, not to mention causes games to be lost. Spot duty on the 4 line for a year, with the majority of time in the AHL is the way things need to go.

  41. TheOtherJohn says:

    delooper: I doubt the Oilers make the playoffs but I think as long as they finish this season reasonably-well it can be chalked-up as a big step forward. There’s so many people here that pathologically dwell on the negatives. Even if the Oilers stink-out the rest of the season, this has been a pretty big step forward. Be happy folks. If the Oilers can get 2 pts out of this game, and crush the weaker opposition for the remainder of the season, that puts them just a couple wins away from a playoff spot. Not bad, and not impossible.

    The big step forward you referred to was last years goal, which quickly morphed into this years goal after the roster underperformed early.

    Just think if the team had added some real NHL players over the summer and acquired a depth 3/4C when Horcoff was injured. We might have home ice for the first round of the playoffs. Course would not want the young guns to experience that. Or to have accountability for management. Its just too hard. Its easier to buy into the never ever ending rebuild . 29th overall and we add 2 rookies to that roster.

    Just think about that. In a market where there was accountability, that alone would get you fired

  42. spoiler says:

    denny33: Even ST’s family and friends would have tough time saying that….Simple stuff – “virtually no supply of players – unprecedented demand’” this past trade deadline…Ryan Whitney could have been moved for a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Even the Calgary organization figured out just how slow Regehr was…and that was in 2010. Marc Fistric could have been moved for a high pick if we are not going to play him? Why did we keep him if we are just going to store him in the press box?No return ( of any kind ? ) for numerous assets fits the management style perfectly. It is about your managements philosophy – you ALWAYS want SOMETHING for your asset.( wee Wade Redden deal ) We can debate about the *value* all day – but the philosophy of a return on asset should be ironclad. >

    Was that the Redden deal where the Rags bought him out?

  43. delooper says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    This is more of a demonstration of the nasty negative streak that seems to be trendy here. Yeah, you can always say what if, even Stanley cup winners have what ifs. What if X got more goals? What if Y tried to break this record? You’re choosing to dwell in negativity. It’s not a productive thing to do.

  44. Gret99zky says:

    delooper,

    We should just stand pat with the current roster and enjoy the ride. Right?

  45. TheOtherJohn says:

    You want to celebrate just falling short of the playoffs and revel in the “development” of the young kids playing meaningful games. That is entirely your perogative. But it starts with the idea that you have to give management a complete pass for their complete inactivity during the summer and throughout the season. We acquire Smithson, leaving aside whether Smithson is the right guy, 5 weeks too late to make a difference.

    I am not prepared to do that.

    You can have your own opinions, you are just not entitled to your own facts.

    What kind of development would the kids have had playing 2 or 4 or 6 playoff games. Realise that varies from the narrative that the team is selling today and you obviously bought into but at some point you have to ask hare questions like how did we get here and why did we fall 1/2/3 games short of the playoffs.

  46. mps91 says:

    Offseason:

    Deal Hemsky for Brouwer
    Sign Bickell (3 yrs x 3 mil)
    Waive Belanger
    Let Jones walk as a UFA

    Hall-Nuge-Ebs
    Bickell-Gagner-Yak
    MPS-Horcoff-Brouwer
    Smyth-Smithson/Lander-Brown
    Petrell

    =PF on each line, way more hits with Brouwer and Bickell, size throughout the lineup and PP units are untouched.

  47. Bar_Qu says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    delooper,

    The Oilers have under performed vis a vis their possibilities, and I really think that is on management(& I fear they will never be held to account). But Delooper is right that too many spend time looking at the “blue sky” and judging so emotionally that “reasonable” never enters it.

  48. Gret99zky says:

    One thing about this year and the shortened season is how healthy the main group has managed to stay. Apart from Horcoff missing games there has been very few man games lost to injury this season.

    I doubt it will be that way next season so Tambi better get some depth players before the need arises.

  49. mc79hockey says:

    Has anyone ever read a Rickithebear comment?

  50. ashley says:

    I’m surprised the Oilers have lost a couple after adding Smithson’s size at the deadline. It should have made them much more competitive with the top teams in the league.

    I’m also surprised that SJS has surged in the standings after trading away all the size and grit that Clowe brings.

    It seems counterintuitive. Or maybe there is some confounder I’m not considering.

  51. godot10 says:

    mps91:
    Offseason:

    Deal Hemsky for Brouwer
    Sign Bickell (3 yrs x 3 mil)
    Waive Belanger
    Let Jones walk as a UFA

    Hall-Nuge-Ebs
    Bickell-Gagner-Yak
    MPS-Horcoff-Brouwer
    Smyth-Smithson/Lander-Brown
    Petrell

    =PF on each line, way more hits with Brouwer and Bickell, size throughout the lineup and PP units are untouched.

    Washington just traded for Erat. They have no need for Hemsky. They are basically the same player.

  52. Ribs says:

    EdmontonOilers
    #Oilers lines:
    4-93-14
    91-89-64
    94-10-28
    37-52-13

    Looks like Hemsky is out, or at least he’s missed another practice.

  53. Gerta Rauss says:

    #Oilers defence pairings: 5-2 15-19 6-45

    per twitter a moment ago…Fistric draws in for Harry Potter

  54. G Money says:

    bookje:
    First, let’s not jump to any assumptions about the Oilers re-signing Whitney until it happens.

    Second, according to Vollaman Charts , Whitney is not really much worse this year than he has been all career.

    So, are the charts wrong or has Whitney always been a not very good defenseman in any way?2009 and 2010 were ok, but certainly not ‘big money’ kind of play.

    I think the charts accurately reflect the big picture reality, I just don’t think they cover the back story of the player adequately as he transitioned from Junior Whitney to Good Whitney to Broken Whitney.

    Like many puck moving defenders, especially in their first few years in the league, Junior Whitney’s numbers were reflective of his newness. e.g. Justin Schultz. High reward but high risk.

    I think once he did start to find the range as a defenseman, his foot issues were sometimes a big impediment, and sometimes bothersome but not enough to hamper his game too badly. All of which let him alternate between Good Whitney and Broken Whitney for a while. I think the numbers (a little but not a whole lot better than now) reflect that alternation.

    In those few games he was Good, he was fantastic – full value in explaining why he was taken #5 overall. We did have the fortune to see some of those games (35 games, 27 points, +13) after he was traded here.

    After the foot problems kicked in, it’s been Broken Whitney ever since. The numbers stink, and they are reflective of the player. At this point, it does not look like his feet will ever recover, so I think the reasonable bet is that Broken Whitney is here to stay.

    But every once in a while (maybe his feet feel better somedays than others), we get a glimpse of Good Whitney.

    I just pray those glimpses do not convince Tambowe to pony up Good Whitney cash for Broken Whitney.

  55. Woodguy says:

    This game is very winnable, so are the next two, so your radio show on Saturday should be full of hope.

    ANA played last nigh, this is their 3rd in 4 nights and Hiller (.908) starts.

    As per Bob:

    4-93-14
    91-89-64
    94-10-28
    13-52-37

    Hesmky not playing, nursing an injury.

    No Dpairings yet, but Fistric is in.

  56. Captain Happy says:

    ashley:
    I’m surprised the Oilers have lost a couple after adding Smithson’s size at the deadline.It should have made them much more competitive with the top teams in the league.

    I’m also surprised that SJS has surged in the standings after trading away all the size and grit that Clowe brings.

    It seems counterintuitive.Or maybe there is some confounder I’m not considering.

    Thornton – 6’4″ 225

    Marleau – 6’2″ 220

    Havlat – 6’2″ 210

    Couture – 6’2″ 200

    Galiardi – 6’2″ 195

    Sheppard – 6’1″ 205

    Desjardin – 6’1″ 195

    Torres – 6’0″ 200

    Wingels – 6’0″ 195

    Gomez – 5’11″ 200

    Brent Burns 6’5″ 225

    Matt Irwin – 6’2″ 210

    Brad Stuart – 6’2″ 215

    Justin Braun – 6’2″ 205

    Matt Tennyson – 6’2″ 205

    ME Vlasic – 6’1″ 205

    Jason Demers – 6’1″ 195

    Dan Boyle – 5’11″ 190

    They may have moved out Clowe’s toughness for 2 second round picks but they immediately replaced it with Raffi Torres for a 4th.

    That Wilson guy is smart.

  57. Woodguy says:

    mc79hockey:
    Has anyone ever read a Rickithebear comment?

    Yes.

    Understand it?

    Not often.

  58. spoiler says:

    As LT is wont to point out (and he’s right), development does not occur in a straight line. As Woodguy is wont to point out (and he’s right), injuries and goaltending can have a massiive effect on a season’s outcome. No one could expect the kids to develop enough last year to make a playoff push a certainty in spite of injuries or goaltending, and if didn’t happen (which it didn’t), that is no big knock on the kids, nor is it a knock on management.

    Everyone, fans, management, the players themselves, are in a big game of hurry up and wait. Patience is the key here… patience for these kids to grow into their roles.

    And we have seen that growth. They’re not quite there yet, but it is so obviously coming. Yet patience has been the virtue most lacking in the “Sphere” and its many calls to action.

    I also think that management is big on adversity and the character and strength it builds… and while these guys are developing, management has thrown them little in the way of a lifeline, preferring instead to see how well they sink or how well they swim, how much fight is in their dogs. You can disagree with that tactic if you wish, but it does seem to be in place and provides some context.

    And I think the play of Taylor Hall especially has taken a step forward because of this adversity as he has tried to will his line to goals and his team to victory. That was a very important signpost for the journey ahead.

    But there are other ones to come… sticking to the coach’s game plan… consistency of effort… killer instinct… character thiings that have to happen before this team is a serious contender.

    My concern is that it seems to be the older kids, those on the second line that have been struggling with their development the most. I’m not sure what to do with that. At some point it is going to be fish or cut bait with these players… the question is, when does that point occur. For someone like Gagner, it might be this summer. That may be a big mistake because allegedly defense, his biggest issue, is the far more coachable than offense (not his issue). But there’s a lot of years of learning there without a lot o result thus far (to my eye he has improved somewhat through this season).

  59. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Yes.Understand it?Not often.

    I once tried reading 40 pages of Finnigan’s Wake to prep for one of his longer comments, but it was no help.

  60. bookje says:

    ashley:
    I’m surprised the Oilers have lost a couple after adding Smithson’s size at the deadline.It should have made them much more competitive with the top teams in the league.

    I’m also surprised that SJS has surged in the standings after trading away all the size and grit that Clowe brings.

    It seems counterintuitive.Or maybe there is some confounder I’m not considering.

    No, its just that sometimes reality is wrong.

  61. bookje says:

    Woodguy: Yes.

    Understand it?

    Not often.

    That’s strange, I fully understand Rickythebear comments.

    Marginal attributions Rickybear has not! Full inclusive commentary is not fully inconclusive of outside findings. That is the key of it. His communicative efficiency is rudimentary to the norm and that is what befuddles you. He finalizes a lot of the half thoughts the statistics from inaccuracy. That you guys can’t understand him is strange.

  62. Captain Obvious says:

    bookje:

    He finalizes a lot of the half thoughts the statistics from inaccuracy.

    Brilliant.

  63. Lowetide says:

    Hemsky out. Foot. Dammit! It’s been a problem for several weeks according to Joanne Ireland, I guess it helps explain that line’s RelCorsi.

  64. TheOtherJohn says:

    If anyone believes that good small players beats good large players, you have never played against a big team that is skilled. Not Coke Machines, skilled big players. We will “discover” that fact when we are faced by a big skilled playoff team in a playoff series and yet , somehow, be surprised when that conclusion asserts itself

    Ashley I would be more concerned that Poile & Trotz decided a 6th was adequate compensation to send Smithson away, not his size

  65. rickithebear says:

    Mc79hockey! WG!
    Touche!

    Yes the # of shot given up from
    opposition pocession taken from behind the net and
    opposition winning an Ozone draw
    are historically equal.
    The shots per pocession
    based on the 8 types are clearly the same.

    Chasing opposition pocession entering our D zone while comming off the bench is the same as chasing Opposition pocession in the Dzone after a faceoff loss.
    Cause it is not about who was on during:
    change of pocession,
    Zone entry
    What matters is who is in the zone at the time of the directed puck.
    It is there fault.

    I forgot all pocession Change,
    -Location of Change,
    -who was on at pocession loss
    -zone entry
    -location of directed puck
    -path of puck
    -% of scoring
    Are the same, therefore making all Corsi Data 100% accurate.

    And binary +/- data reflective of the desired goal less accurate.

    MC and WG
    I ask for your Scholared forgivness.

  66. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    Hemsky out. Foot. Dammit! It’s been a problem for several weeks according to Joanne Ireland, I guess it helps explain that line’s RelCorsi.

    Well, at least foot injuries have never derailed a promising player’s career. We have that to comfort us! Unless there was some glaring case that I am unaware of, but that seems impossible.

  67. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/preview.htm?id=2012020581&navid=DL|EDM|home

    Kueger pre game

    A couple quotes from Andy Sutton on the Oilers twitter feed

    “I hoped to go out the way I thought I would go out, maybe throw a retirement party.” – Sutton joked.

    Expand

    55m
    Edmonton Oilers ✔ @EdmontonOilers

    “I miss it incredibly. It’s been nice to be around the guys the last few days.” – Sutton

    Expand

    56m
    Edmonton Oilers ✔ @EdmontonOilers

    “I feel okay. My knee is a little sore. I started working out 3 weeks ago. I think my days on the ice are numbered.” – Andy Sutton

  68. rickithebear says:

    Boojkie!

    What is Corsi’s Purpose!
    No half truths Please!

    Not what is read.

    What you believe it accuratly provides.

  69. rickithebear says:

    IN Simple Form:
    Corsi is not a reflection of Pocession.
    -fails to show who lost pocession.
    - fails to show retrieval of puck.
    Corsi is not a reflection of zone entry.
    -a variance in O zone and D zone starts skews that.
    Corsi does not Measure Defensive capability.
    -the abilty to cause a directed puck to
    a. be shot from further distance.
    b. be missed on net
    c. blocked

    Corsi does 100% tell us that an individual was somewhere on the ice surface when a puck was directed at the net from anywhere.

  70. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    People have looked at this.

    Shot quality differences do not exist on a team level to any extent that makes any team a better shooting team than another.

    They’ve looked at years of data.

    Shot quality differences DOES exist on a player by player level, but team wide its a wash.

    Corsi is used as a proxy for puck possession only.

    If you shoot the puck these things are also true:

    -you are in the offensive zone (no, shots from outside the zone don’t exist enough even to be considered noise in the sample)
    -the other team doesn’t have the puck
    -your team has the puck

    That’s all corsi desribes. Possession.

    Corsi has shown to be significantly positively correlated with winning hockey games. 85%+ confidence if I remember correctly.

    If anyone tries to read more into corsi other than puck possession, they are doing it wrong.

  71. Ice Sage says:

    Skill and performance are all that matter. Small, skilled Montreal beats big, skilled Boston all year long. Why? Because Mtl actually has more skill. So it has been with the Oilers at times this year.

    I am delighted with the season – it won’t have been enough for the perpetually-cynical who choose to look backwards and second guess things. Many players improved, the new coach established himself and the playoff scent has been found. No knee-jerk short-term moves and the team is in a good position to upgrade (by addition and subtraction) this summer. Tracking well.

  72. TheOtherJohn says:

    I must have failed to notice the last Stanley Cup championship team from Montreal. Was that last year? the year before? 2008? 2002? Guess the smallish Montreal forwards have a harder time with the 4 series tournament that is the SC playoffs than you thought.

    Now if you were referring to the SC championship team of Montreal in 92/93 they had Brian Bellows, Kirk Mueller, John LeClair & Damphouse in their top 6. Some pretty good sized players 20 years ago

    Delighted that you are delighted with the season. Just think how mindblowingly delighted you’d be if we had added a top 4 D and a real 3/4C centre over the summer and were in the lead of the NW division.

  73. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Corsi is used as a proxy for puck possession only.

    AMEN?

    As i have said in the past.
    it is a measure of an instatnt in time.
    It is not a measure of the individual
    it is a measure of the team unit and opposition.

  74. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Corsi has shown to be significantly positively correlated with winning hockey games. 85%+ confidence if I remember correctly.

    A +ve goal diferencial in a hockey game has been correlated to 100% confidence.
    If i remeber correctly.

  75. FastOil says:

    godot10:
    If the Oilers improve the puck-moving ability of the defense, the impact of size in the forwards matter sless, if the D can get the puck to the forwards faster and more accurately.

    Speed and the ability to move the puck quickly neutralizes size.Still big and fast and skilled is better than small and fast and skilled.

    Truth.

    It would be great to find another Guerin or three.

  76. Ice Sage says:

    “Delighted that you are delighted with the season. Just think how mindblowingly delighted you’d be if we had added a top 4 D and a real 3/4C centre over the summer and were in the lead of the NW division”

    Yes, but I’d be most thrilled if these young Oilers had barged their way into the playoffs on their own and it almost happened.

    As to the additions suggested, maybe that bridges the gap to Minnesota / Vancouver, maybe not. But further, Who might those players have been? And who’s ice time would they take? What cap space / overpay/ young prospect trade-away/ long choking contract price would be paid? Belanger has flopped, Horcoff and Lander got injured and Whitney was expected to be that top 4D… didn’t work out, hindsight bias, shoulda coulda, etc. etc.

    But, despite this, Oilers are going to meet consensus expectations (9th – 12th in the West). I’d be bitchy with the rest of you if they finished at the bottom again with more players going backwards and if they hadn’t showed signs of complete hockey play.

    I’m not apologizing for management which I agree is too laconic and proud for the efficient pursuit of excellence. I just don’t think that the Edmonton Oilers of 2013 have a strong enough core of players-in-their-prime that one can fill gaps with available retreads. It’s coming though.

  77. Rocknrolla says:

    Got to meet Kelly Jay at the Deerfoot Casino 2 years ago. He attended a concert I produced and he came by for some drinks with the talent after the show.

    He is a class act, and had so many stories! Great guy, and I hope he gets through this.

  78. Mr DeBakey says:

    I know that I’m pretty confident that no matter how crappy the Oilers’ Corsi is,
    if their team shooting percentage goes from 8.1% to 19.7%,
    their Goal Differntial will improve 100% of the time.

    Especially if
    T. Hall’s shooting % rises from 7.5% to 35.3%

    So what if it only lasts five games.

  79. bookje says:

    rickithebear:
    Boojkie!

    What is Corsi’s Purpose!
    No half truths Please!

    Not what is read.

    What you believe it accuratly provides.

    Firetrucks!

    (Steve – Did I use that correctly?)

  80. ashley says:

    Are we that small though? Gagner is 5’11″, but weighs 200lbs. That’s pretty solid.

    After that, who is it? Jordan and Yak? They’re both 5’11″ and 185lbs. Not that small at all. Everyone else seems to have good size.

    Our defence is quite big.

    I know we’re all looking for answers, but I don’t think we’re looking in the right place.

  81. MISNO says:

    I agree, Ashley….I don’t really feel the Oilers are *that* small…not Montreal Canadiens small, that is. It’s just they don’t have the appreciably large cross-section that the San Jose Sharks have. That being said I would love a big (6-3, 210) 2line center.

    Oilers failures lie largely within management. Somebody needs to be held accountable at some point.

    Please?

  82. Lowetide says:

    ashley:
    Are we that small though?Gagner is 5’11″, but weighs 200lbs. That’s pretty solid.

    After that, who is it?Jordan and Yak?They’re both 5’11″ and 185lbs.Not that small at all.Everyone else seems to have good size.

    Our defence is quite big.

    I know we’re all looking for answers, but I don’t think we’re looking in the right place.

    Which brings me to the original point. Size isn’t the issue, skill is the issue. Size comes after skill. So, when we find a big player better than Yakupov, then we can agree it would be better to have that player.

    Oilers drafted coke machines and they didn’t work out. They drafted skill and they’re scoring 40-49 points a year (Gagner) and people are still unhappy.

    So, let’s find a 6.05 Gagner.

  83. FastOil says:

    Ice Sage:

    I’m not apologizing for management which I agree is too laconic and proud for the efficient pursuit of excellence.I just don’t think that the Edmonton Oilers of 2013 have a strong enough core of players-in-their-prime that one can fill gaps with available retreads.It’s coming though.

    I am not sure consistently good teams ever ice bad players. They may ice players that don’t score much, this being different than men wearing skates in your jersey that are not NHL calibre players. Role players are necessary, the cap dictating that not every player can be high scoring.

    Role players still need to be sound players, ideally only missing the ability to score a lot, which keeps them affordable. This should be the domain of declining quality vets and failed junior stars. The problem with training your own is this:

    Your 4th line former first round junior scorer gets a puck in the slot in a tight playoff game and lets a shot go everyone forgot he had that catches top twine

    or

    Your 4th line self drafted tough guy with marginal hands gets a puck in the slot, bobbles the puck and let’s a muffin go that Ryan Smyth would be proud of, missing the net by a foot.

    Pajaarvi is a great example of this, he’s not a consistent threat to score but when he gets a chance you can see that he has skill and buries his chances fairly often. Using players that aren’t very good at hockey negates this from your team. To me it is important in the playoffs with injuries and tight checking, and seemingly every year a role player (with some talent) goes on a Pisani tear.

  84. hunter1909 says:

    Ice Sage,

    This is a proper evaluation of another wack season, and for that I thank you.

    Meanwhile, most everyone else is pulling out, then eating their pubic hair in frustration.

  85. hunter1909 says:

    FastOil: I am not sure consistently good teams ever ice bad players.

    Please don’t kill me, but Edmonton Oilers cannot be accused of being consistently good on any level other than winning 1st overall picks.

  86. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: A +ve goal diferencial in a hockey game has been correlated to 100% confidence.
    If i remeber correctly.

    Not quite 100%

    Higher than corsi for sure.

    Problem with goals is sample size.

    Not enough to give you an indication of who is doing well and who is just lucky until you have years of data.

    For in season info and projection, corsi works much better.

    With and With Out You (WOWY) analysis with corsi helps tease out the better players.

    Line mate effects are really tough to figure out (how good is Eberle without Hall? Etc)

    Its not perfect, but its a quality measure which has stood up to very close scrutiny.

    You need to use it in context of role on team, line mates and zone starts and others.

    Nothing else that we have predicts as well.

    It would be great to add:

    -battles won/lost
    -passes given/taken
    -zone entries/exits

    To the corsi number to give even more context, but that isn’t available on the NHL game sheets right now.

    All the corsi info comes from the info that the NHL publishes on the game sheets and TOI sheets.

  87. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Lowetide,

    Would like to see this weighted by ice time, but the team ‘s averages are not smurfy:

    NHL average 203.5 lbs 73.2 inches
    Edmonton 203.8 (+0.3) lbs 73.5 (+0.3 inches)

    http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/01/2013-nhl-teams-by-weight-height-and-age.html

    Impact is determined by weight not height:

    Gagner 199 lbs (-3.0 lbs) 71 (-2.5 inches ) inches.

  88. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy,

    How about a stat that measures every time two players go for the puck, who comes out with it? Only happens a million times every game, and sure as hell tells me who’s “winning” off the scoresheet. In the LAK game for example, Kings players effectively intimidated the weaker Oilers for much of the game in this way.

  89. hunter1909 says:

    I’m drinking French wine(I’m a cheap French wine snob), and in anticipation of Souray sending one of the kids to ER, and a Cogliano 2x goal night… it’s fittingly called(Chateau) Belvue.

  90. Kris11 says:

    !. The Oilers are big enough and gritty enough.

    Nuge can cycle the puck and be physical against elite opposition and will play as an above average size player soon. Gagner is an average size NHL’er already, and can cycle and has fought. Hemsky is average size and can cycle well. Horcoff and Belanger too. (None of these guys have ever shown being intimidated. All can win puck battles and cycle.)

    Hall, Smyth, MPS, Smithson, Brown, and Petrell are all above average in grit or size. (Many of them can fight, though hopefully Hall won’t keep doing it for practical reasons.)

    The two players who are a bit small, who seem to have trouble controlling the puck with strength and grittiness, along the wall are, IMO, Jones and Eberle. The latter makes up for it and the former is useless.

    But if size and grit are and winning puck battles and cycling the puck are your deal, you should be for trading Eberle and Jones. (Yakupov is a bit small-ish now, but clearly will be dominant on the puck very soon, so it would be crazy to trade him for grit.) They are the only two forwards dragging the bigness, grittiness, tough on the puck factor of the Oilers below average.

    And since Eberle is excellent without being gritty, he should not be traded.

    Thus, I take all calls to make the Oilers more gritty as calls to get rid of Jones. He is the cause of the Oilers being less big, tough, or gritty than they could be.

    Thankfully Hartikainen is gritty and can be called up to replace Jones.

  91. maudite says:

    Bar_Qu:
    TheOtherJohn,

    delooper,

    The Oilers have under performed vis a vis their possibilities, and I really think that is on management(& I fear they will never be held to account). But Delooper is right that too many spend time looking at the “blue sky” and judging so emotionally that “reasonable” never enters it.

    They are possibly going to finish above 12th in the west, 25th in the league…color me suprised. Ahead of where I pegged them. The fact that they entered the year with a team that, on paper, seemed likely to be there while looking to be in the playoff hunt, is not a forgiveable offense. We have cap and there were short term options available. Quite certain we could have paid a bit of a premium for the Rozsival (1 yr deal signed Sep 11) and possibly Corvo (1 yr deal signed July 1st) type guys to actually balance our roster. Besides that, there should have been a guy like Smithson occupying that spot where our 8th defenseman is or Hordichuck was, right from the get go.

  92. maudite says:

    In a perverse way, I’m almost hoping they do that Whitney deal for 3.25 x 3 years. Maybe finally people will be beyond any doubt and stop excusing these guys.

  93. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909:
    Woodguy,

    How about a stat that measures every time two players go for the puck, who comes out with it? Only happens a million times every game, and sure as hell tells me who’s “winning” off the scoresheet. In the LAK game for example, Kings players effectively intimidated the weaker Oilers for much of the game in this way.

    That would be “battles won/lost”

    I’d kill for that info.

    I know that teams track it themselves for their team.

    Having that info for every NHL/AHL/CHL/NCAA player would make for better decisions.

    If you used the info.

  94. Kris11 says:

    Next years gritty, big, tough on the puck Oiler forwards:

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    MPS-Gagner-Yakupov
    UFA-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Smyth-Smithson(or the like)-Hartikainen
    Brown, Lander

    I wonder if the Oilers could grab Morrow as an UFA. They might need to deal Hemsky for a D to make the cap stuff work out, but I like Morrow and Horcoff backing up the kids.

  95. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    I would love the stat – battles won / lost….

    And I have a theory about how our team would look in that particular stat – horrible.

    Most of our forwards lose puck battles on a very regular basis.

    I am going to say this right now and be killed. I supported the decision to get Mike Brown because I think we need a player of that ilk on our team.

    However, I don’t think Mike ever wins a puck battle along the boards. Ever. I think he is very effective at times on the forecheck and he lays the body on…but I have to be honest. I want my 4th liners to win puck battles. Have to.

    Let me know if I am off base.

    Have to win tonight – As WG pointed out – two rivals went at it last night and the ducks have to be tired playing LA.

    Hoping Sam G can get going….

  96. Kris11 says:

    Actually, I would try to trade both Eberle and Hemsky for D-men in the offseason, but that would be tough.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Lowetide,

    Would like to see this weighted by ice time, but the team ‘s averages are not smurfy:

    NHL average203.5 lbs73.2 inches
    Edmonton203.8 (+0.3) lbs 73.5 (+0.3 inches)

    http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/01/2013-nhl-teams-by-weight-height-and-age.html

    Impact is determined by weight not height:

    Gagner 199 lbs (-3.0 lbs) 71 (-2.5 inches ) inches.

    Shorter, heavier guys do ok as hockey players.

    Crosby at 5’11″ 205lbs with his Pierre exciting “powerful thighs” is at the high end of the list.

    Low center of gravity can be used as an advantage in battles.

  98. Kris11 says:

    Denny,

    The Hall-RNH-Eberle line absolutely own the puck.

    But yes, Brown sucks and controls the puck like a five year old fancy pants wussy. Not tough on the puck at all.

  99. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909:
    I’m drinking French wine(I’m a cheap French wine snob), and in anticipation of Souray sending one of the kids to ER, and a Cogliano 2x goal night… it’s fittingly called(Chateau) Belvue.

    Mid-range Chilean wine is cheaper and better than cheap French wine.

    Word to the wise.

  100. sliderule says:

    I don’t think you have to trade skill players for grit.

    The Kings picked Clifford King and Nolan in the 2nd 4th and 7th rd.

    We pick small players like Omark or throw away picks like they don’t matter.

    BPA in first round..

    Other rds pick bigger players who fill your needs be they D or grit.

    Hire really good scouts.

  101. Lowetide says:

    denny33:
    Woodguy,

    I would love the stat – battles won / lost….

    And I have a theory about how our team would look in that particular stat – horrible.

    Most of our forwards lose puck battles on a very regular basis.

    I am going to say this right now and be killed. I supported the decision to get Mike Brown because I think we need a player of that ilk on our team.

    However, I don’t think Mike ever wins a puck battle along the boards. Ever. I think he is very effective at times on the forecheck and he lays the body on…but I have to be honest. I want my 4th liners to win puck battles. Have to.

    Let me know if I am off base.

    Have to win tonight – As WG pointed out – two rivals went at it last night and the ducks have to be tired playing LA.

    Hoping Sam G can get going….

    I think Mike Brown was a good pickup. Why? He does the job asked and the club doesn’t have to spend another pick on him or deal someone else to get him. I don’t think the group who wanted an enforcer have said a word negative about Brown since he arrived in EDM.

    I also don’t think he’s made a lick of difference, but the Oilers management wants that guy and now they have him..

    Back to drafting skill. (not)

  102. Kris11 says:

    Hunter,

    I thought you said you didn’t drink?

  103. Bar_Qu says:

    Kris11:
    Hunter,

    I thought you said you didn’t drink?

    When he is asleep. Otherwise he is hunter (thompson)

  104. TheOtherJohn says:

    Serious question.: Why is it that metric is wholly pervasive in everyday Canadian life but nobody in Canadian sports is tied to centimetres or kilograms?

    You guys have all convinced me. We are big enough (heavy enough) to win the 4 series marathon that is the SC playoffs (…….I don’t really believe that)

    That is notwithstanding that I do not believe that Sam Gagner is 5’11″ & 200lbs or that J Eberle is 185 lbs.. I would guess 5’9″ and 185 lbs and would be quite surprised if Eberle weighs 175lbs. WEM usually has an Oiler card signing annually, go meet/greet Sam & Jordan and reach your own conclusions

    P.S. Gagner would still be short measured in centimetres and Eberle light weighed in kilometres too!!

    We do not need a 6.05 Sam Gagner we need two 23 year old Shane Doan’s. Doan 2013 will not score like Sam Gagner but would be an effective additions to our top 6. Expect Doan 2013 will take Hemsky’s spot actually. .

    I suspect that Yak is going to be the 2nd best Oiler forward and am not suggesting moving him now, or at all..

    Putting my argument another way: An undersized Denis Savard drove the bus on Chicago’s 1st line, not Al Secord. But Secord definitely filled a very effective and necessary role. Do not think anyone would suggest keeping A Secord at the expense of D Savard. When we get there it will not be with the present top 6. Not because of skill issues. Nor because of Coke Machine envy. It will be so that we can match up with and beat the large teams in 2 or 3 or, heaven forbid, 4 best of 7 series.

    If Petrell is still on our roster when we start to compete for the SC, we will not really be competing for the SC

  105. hunter1909 says:

    Kris11,

    You probably think a lot of things.

    I’m suspicious of non-drinkers.

  106. leadfarmer says:

    LT,

    Couple days ago you were asking can you win a cup with Gagner as #2c, Eberle, and Yakupov as RW. I’m saying sure you can. Just not on the same team. I like all those players but they are very similar to each other and its not the size. They are all a lot better in the o-zone then anywhere else on the ice
    You also asked can you win with Smid as Petry as top 4 defenseman; of course you can as long as they are your 2nd pairing and you have a better first pairing. They still need.

    xxx xxx
    Smid Petry,
    Schultz*2
    Fistric.

    Also, was at Staples for Saturdays game and I bet Pettrell was happy we traded for #52, a player that is actually worse than him.

  107. hunter1909 says:

    TheOtherJohn: If Petrell is still on our roster when we start to compete for the SC, we will not really be competing for the SC

    Petrell is a poor man’s Cogliano, while Cogliano is a Lilliputian Jerome Iginla.

  108. Woodguy says:

    Everyone seems to really under estimate 4-93-14.

    I’ve been in the truck driving around a lot and I’ve heard “when the kids are ready to win” or a permutation of it numerous times today.

    It makes me want to scream.

    Those 3 kids out shoot some of the best lines in hockey (including #1 on Cup Champs LAK, Piscutters etc.)

    They were ready last spring.

    I think the MSM re-tells this tale of “waiting to be ready” becuase its easier to explain the failure of management as “patience” than just plain failure.

    I posit it that 4-93-14 add more to the Oilers than Kane and Toews did to CHI the year they won The Cup.

    It was the Oilers management who espoused “Chicago model”

    Utter failure on that front.

    They move the goal posts more than Dashing Silver Fox.

    What a waste of what could have been their “Oilers beat MTL in 3 straight in 1981″

    Failures.

    Assholes.

  109. Gret99zky says:

    Cleary, Stoll,GlenX, Brodiak, Green, Cogliano, Souray, etc., when do we get to see player X was not playing well for team Y, was traded to Edmonton and found his game, instead of the other way around?

  110. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    LT,

    Couple days ago you were asking can you win a cup with Gagner as #2c, Eberle, and Yakupov as RW.I’m saying sure you can.Just not on the same team.I like all those players but they are very similar to each other and its not the size.They are all a lot better in the o-zone then anywhere else on the ice
    You also asked can you win with Smid as Petry as top 4 defenseman; of course you can as long as they are your 2nd pairing and you have a better first pairing.They still need.

    xxx xxx
    SmidPetry,
    Schultz*2
    Fistric.

    Also, was at Staples for Saturdays game and I bet Pettrell was happy we traded for #52,a player that is actually worse than him.

    I don’t see the Oilers getting two better defensemen than Smid-Petry. One to go with Schultz the younger? Maybe.

    As for the skilled guys, I think you could make a case the Oilers will eventually have to decide between Gagner and Eberle, but we all know how that’s going to go.

  111. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Assholes.

    I prefer to use the more Teutonic “idiot”, seeing how it’s more evocative of these…idiots.

  112. TheOtherJohn says:

    Weber at the draft in a package built around Eberle and our #1

    But holy cow is that a lot of $$$$ for 1 player

  113. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    LT,

    Couple days ago you were asking can you win a cup with Gagner as #2c, Eberle, and Yakupov as RW.I’m saying sure you can.Just not on the same team.I like all those players but they are very similar to each other and its not the size.They are all a lot better in the o-zone then anywhere else on the ice

    You can win a Cup with Gagner, Eberle, and Yakupov. They are all above average hockey players or will be. It depends on whether the other nine forwards compliment them well, and have strengths that compensate for the weaknesses of the three and vice versa.

    The Oilers main problems against heavy teams like LA and St. Louis is the quality fo the Oilers defense more than the lack of size of the Oilers forwards.

    Put Montreal’s (or Vancouver’s or Chicago’s) defense behind the Oilers forwards, and no one would be complaining about the lack of size of the Oilers forwards.

  114. Woodguy says:

    With 6 and 45 playing together, I fear Ice Cream Boudeau taking advantage.

    Those two together are awful.

    Awful.

    I’ll be watching to see who Boudreau gets out against them and if RK reacts.

    With Perry and Selanne on different line I bet Boudreau gets one of them out there every time.

  115. Lowetide says:

    WG: Heard some of that chatter today, too. The thing I wonder about in regard to that line is when do people begin to consider the supporting cast? The high draft picks (and Eberle) are performing, so what’s after that?

    In fact, if we made a list of players Edmonton acquired outside the draft (and Schultz) how many are any damn good at all?

  116. godot10 says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Weber at the draftin a package built around Eberle and our #1

    But holy cow is that a lot of $$$$ for 1 player

    Nashville is NOT a cap team. They can afford to pay one superstar defensemen in Weber. Nashville can’t trade Weber at the draft anyways. One year will not have expired. By the time one year has expired, Nashville will have paid a huge chunk of Weber’s contract already ($27 million dollars), so he will effectively be a bargain player for Nashville going forward already.

    The front-loaded nature of Weber’s contract means almost all the pain of that contract is gone from Nashville’s perspective. They have no need or incentive to trade him. When they matched, and committed to $27 million dollars over the first 11 months of the contract, they made Weber a Predator for basically life.

  117. TheOtherJohn says:

    Lowetide: WG: Heard some of that chatter today, too. The thing I wonder about in regard to that line is when do people begin to consider the supporting cast? The high draft picks (and Eberle) are performing, so what’s after that?In fact, if we made a list of players Edmonton acquired outside the draft (and Schultz) how many are any damn good at all?

    Agree completely. Also agree with WG comments re how good 4-93-14 have been. Simply outsanding!! Its the drop off from our 8 to 10th player down. Subpar for the spot they fill almost without exception. Thats what frustrates me. With some decent moves last summer we would be talking about fighting for home ice in first series

  118. Lowetide says:

    NAS isn’t going to deal Weber without getting an enormous return. Petry, Eberle and, that kind of thing. Why would they? The Preds own Weber until he’s an old man. Incredible that he signed that contract. Must have thought there was no chance in the world they would match.

  119. TheOtherJohn says:

    Godot

    I think Weber was signed so that they could move him 1 year out. It would take an enormous package. But if he’s moved I would be interested

  120. spoiler says:

    hunter1909: I prefer to use the more Teutonic “idiot”, seeing how it’s more evocative of these…idiots.

    I think you have it backasswards. Idiot come to us from Greek via Latin… and Asshole, the American slang term, derives from Old German (altho variants of ass can be traced back to the Middle East).

  121. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Lowetide,

    …NHL average 203.5 lbs 73.2 inches
    …Edmonton 203.8 (+0.3) lbs 73.5 (+0.3 inches)
    …Gagner 199 lbs (-3.0 lbs) 71 (-2.2 inches ) inches.

    Re-weighting by TOI with Volmann’s 2011-12 skater stats
    http://www.hockeyabstract.com/testimonials/untitledpost

    NHL average 203.9 lbs 73.2 inches
    Edmonton 201.3 (-2.6) lbs 73.4 (+0.2 inches)
    Gagner 199 lbs (-4.9 lbs) 71 (-2.2 inches ) inches.

    Team weight averages normed by ice time:

    WSH 211.0
    LAK 209.3
    OTT 208.6
    COL 208.1
    SJS 207.9
    CBJ 207.7
    STL 207.4
    WPG 206.3
    NJD 206.0
    BOS 205.3
    PHI 204.5
    NSH 204.0
    NYR 203.9
    PHX 203.4
    MIN 202.9
    VAN 202.9
    CHI 202.4
    CAR 202.1
    TOR 202.0
    ANA 201.9
    TBL 201.8
    CGY 201.6
    DET 201.4
    EDM 201.3
    PIT 201.3
    NYI 201.2
    FLA 201.1
    BUF 200.9
    MTL 200.7
    DAL 198.8

    The young core logging TOI for the Oil are still putting on weight so it will be interesting to see these numbers again at season end.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Rajala 12-22-34 in his last 33 with OKC. Amazing

  123. godot10 says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Godot

    I think Weber was signed so that they could move him 1 year out

    Why would they trade him when they will pay him $27 million dollars for 48 games, a big chunk of the contract already? He is a “relative” bargain player for them moving forward. They will have endured the worst of the contract already. From now on, they get to harvest the benefits of the contract.

  124. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Only reason they trade him is if he wants to leave. The team has a good fan base for a nontraditional market, but I dont think they would stick around for a rebuild. Also, Eberle and a 1st round pick would probably not do it either.

  125. BlacqueJacque says:

    I’m surprised there isn’t more discussion about the fact that the team has decidedly to subtly try to tank the rest of the season. Nothing obvious, like playing Khabi back-to-back (like Calgary with Kipper), but Potter out rather than Whitney, Hemsky out in favor of Jones. These aren’t moves that a team trying to make the playoffs makes.

  126. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide,

    What’s the AHL conversion %? 55? So he’d be a 45 point player? The newer, smaller, less-attitudier Linus Omark.

  127. cabbiesmacker says:

    ashley:
    Are we that small though?Gagner is 5’11″, but weighs 200lbs. That’s pretty solid.

    A) Sam Gagner is neither one of those things.

    B) I’d like to know just what the problem is here in Edmonton. Apparently our top 6 is incredibly skilled but we still lose more than we win. And now we aren’t small, BUT, we still lose more than we win.

    Top 9 as a group isn’t good enough.

    Oiler management seems content with assuming 4 – 5 kids can grow into the types that pull their teammates along in the jetstream and I think it’s a damn shame. A tweak or two and this team could easily have made 8th place this year and those 4 – 5 would have grown exponentially and been better players due to it.

    Management appears ok with sundial timed growth which is pretty bloody stupid I think. One more year of cheap RNH. 2 more of cheap YAK. 2 more of cheaper Schultz. Gagner may already be too expensive.

    Is their a problem with adding decent players to pretty good ones?

  128. TheOtherJohn says:

    Godot

    if Weber was available would you trade Eberle, Petry and a pick for him?

    Presupposes that you have already signed Gagner to play 1RW

  129. Lowetide says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Lowetide,

    What’s the AHL conversion %?55?So he’d be a 45 point player?The newer, smaller, less-attitudier Linus Omark.

    .45; still a terrific run for the Finn.

  130. Lowetide says:

    cabbiesmacker: give the top 6F the Marchant-Moreau-Grier line and add Jason Smith and even a 2004 Eric Brewer and I think you’ll get your answer.

  131. BlacqueJacque says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Hmm, no, he’s too expensive. It’s a Luongo contract. I know he’s going to retire, but imaging eating that cap hit until 2026. Even if the cap doubles in the next 13 years, that’ll still be around 7% of your cap then. That’d be over the average NHL salary.

    I suppose you could send him down to the AHL in 2022 and paying him $3m that season and $1m the following three, but expecting him to retire. In the meanwhile, you’d have paid him $90m over 9 seasons. That’s a spicy meatball.

    Besides, it costs us Petry, and we need to fill 2 spots with NHL bodies without losing Petry. Right now we need to replace Whitney/Fistric/Potter/Peckham almost as bad as we need a top defender. Losing Petry just opens one more chink in our armor.

  132. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy:

    I posit it that 4-93-14 add more to the Oilers than Kane and Toews did to CHI the year they won The Cup.

    Measuring against the median yes, but the median in Edmonton is ….well you know. Pretty massive freeking falloff after those three.

    All Edmonton needs to do is toss a Hossa and Sharp into the top 6 and replicate a third line of Ladd, Brouwer, and Byfuglien so Hall. RNH, and Eberle’s magical powers won’t be quite as necessary.

  133. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide:
    cabbiesmacker: give the top 6F the Marchant-Moreau-Grier line and add Jason Smith and even a 2004 Eric Brewer and I think you’ll get your answer.

    Absolutely. See my somewhat biased point above.

    Blackhawks, Bruins, and KIngs all had effective complimentary players that helped them win Stanley.

    I feel for the kids. It’s pretty damned unfair and I hate to see it happening to a kid like Hall. They were really, really close.

    Nero – Rome – Fiddling

  134. BlacqueJacque says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    When you put it that way, the task list is so depressing, especially with Tambo in charge.

  135. cabbiesmacker says:

    cabbiesmacker: Measuring against the median yes, but the median in Edmonton is ….well you know. Pretty massive freeking falloff after those three.

    All Edmonton needs to do is toss a Hossa and Sharp into the top 6 and replicate a third line of Ladd, Brouwer, and Byfuglien so Hall. RNH, and Eberle’s magical powers won’t be quite as necessary. Every single fn night.

    When the kids don’t go this team doesn’t go.

  136. cabbiesmacker says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Godot

    if Weber was available would you trade Eberle, Petry and a pick for him?

    Presupposes that you have already signed Gagner to play 1RW

    I wouldn’t. Two good players for one very good player. You still have to have depth. A contract that big could choke you out of getting a second goaltender, decent D, and a real good third line. Whale hunting is a short term, no guarantees solution.

    There’s prospects and picks that could be dealt for players, not in Weber’s class of course, that could round this team out nicely I think.

  137. leadfarmer says:

    Goal for next year: No more breaking in rookies. Klefbom needs to stay healthy for a year and get used to the smaller ice and more physical play. Let him hang out in OKC.

    As for the bottom roster players, hopefully some of our current picks will pan out at some point. Man Pitlick should be a player, has the skills at least. Decent size, good speed, ok shot. Missing a toolbox I think. Hoping JARJAR will have a career. Harti will hopefully step up and be better than smyth and jones next year.

  138. Lucinius says:

    I don’t even glance at trading for Weber, honestly. Not with that contract and not with what it’d take to pry him out of Nashville, even if they were put into a Pronger-type situation. Its just not worth it, I’m sorry.

    Almost under no circumstance do I trade any of; Hall, Hopkins, Eberle, Yakupov, Paajarvi, Smid, Petry, Klefbom, Marincin.

    The first three for obvious reason; you have them you have a line that can out-chance any line in the league — giving that up is the height of folly. You keep Yakupov for similar reasons; in a year this kid could be giving Hall lessons in how to dominate teams. He loves to hit, doesn’t back down and has a massive shot and play-making ability. He could become the actual corner-stone of this team.

    Paajarvi you keep because he’ll be an affordable player to fill a gap that has long existed on the Edmonton Oilers; a player who can slide up and down between lines 2 and 3 on either wing to create chances and play responsible hockey. Players like him become invaluable on playoff teams.

    Smid and Petry you keep because both bring needed elements to the Oilers’ D, and do so at reasonable cost and experience. Further, you know what you have with them and you know they want to play here. Also, they work well together when Petry hasn’t gotten lost in the woods trying to find his jock.

    Klefbom and Marincin you keep because you don’t quite know what either will turn out to be, but both have the possibility of top 4-D potential in them and are staggered, in terms of when they’ll be ready (if they pan out). This gives the Oilers the needed depth on defense in terms of in-house D solutions for the bottom pairings in the near future and the chance one, or both, work out to have an even bigger impact down the road. You only trade players like these unless the return is massive or after you’ve learned what you have in them.

    Lastly; the Oilers do need help on D; but you don’t go after the Weber’s. They are too costly and while able to fill a massive hole on our back end merely create one elsewhere to acquire. What you look for is a young defenseman on another team who’s struggled but might have all the tools and put it together in the future.

    One possibility? Gardiner in Toronto. He’d probably relish coming to Edmonton and playing with Schultz and is a healthy scratch AGAIN in Toronto, and despite his struggles and the concussion.. has a lot of upside in another year or so. Its a risk, but one worth taking, imo — and probably doesn’t cost nearly as much as he might otherwise.

  139. leadfarmer says:

    I know that size isnt everything. But watching the two teams warm up at the Staple center, the Oil looked significantly smaller than the Kings and during the game they were physically overmatched on one on one puck battles. They will gain weight as they get older, but they could use some strong players on the lineup to wear down the other team for them.

    Also, did I mention 52 is terrible.

  140. Kris11 says:

    hunter1909,

    Wait, but weren’t you all offended a few weeks ago when Steve and I were teasing you about you being tipsy while watching the game?

  141. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: Heard some of that chatter today, too. The thing I wonder about in regard to that line is when do people begin to consider the supporting cast? The high draft picks (and Eberle) are performing, so what’s after that?

    In fact, if we made a list of players Edmonton acquired outside the draft (and Schultz) how many are any damn good at all?

    Almost none.

    Damning.

    Hope MacT and Howson help.

    They are the only difference you can see in Pro Procurement.

    Maybe they look at a spread sheet once in a while.

    I pray.

  142. Kris11 says:

    Nevermind

  143. sliderule says:

    This team is not going to trade for a miracle.

    A player like Weber just costs to much.What you gain you give up.Barring stupidity which is a possibility.

    The team will get better with experience.We can see that in Hall even after he had a major surgery he is so much better.Yak and Schulz will be much better next year.

    Draft well this year and rebalance the roster with some grit without selling the farm and we are good for ten years.

    We will have to totally scrap the coaches to make the final step

  144. geowal says:

    That’s some pretty good company there, tied for 11th overall in the entire NHL. There was some concern about his EV SP, which is now .923 and ranks 20th among goalies with 15 games or more this season. I’d say that’s some solid goaltending, certainly not a “weak link” position.

    For what it’s worth, the difference in goals if Dubnyk had Bishop’s save % is five goals. Perfectly placed that could make a small difference in the standings, but not a huge one.

  145. Mr DeBakey says:

    Team weight averages normed by ice time

    Lets divide those 30 teams, by “normed weight”, into Six groups of Five,
    grossest to most petite.

    And then, lets figure out the Pts per Game of each quintet:
    WSH* LAK* OTT* COL*SJS– 1.09
    CBJ* STL *WPG *NJD *BOS– 1.12
    PHI *NSH *NYR *PHX *VAN– 1.07
    MIN * CHI * CAR* TOR *ANA– 1.29
    TBL *CGY* DET *PIT *EDM– 1.06
    NYI* FLA* BUF* MTL * DAL– 1.07

    No doubt about it, bigger is better.

  146. Mr DeBakey says:

    I probably should have laid it out like this,
    with avg weights, avg Points:
    WSH* LAK* OTT* COL*SJS– 209.0 – 1.09
    CBJ* STL *WPG *NJD *BOS– 206.5 – 1.12
    PHI *NSH *NYR *PHX *VAN– 203.7 – 1.07
    MIN * CHI * CAR* TOR *ANA– 202.3 – 1.29
    TBL *CGY* DET *PIT *EDM– 201.5 – 1.06
    NYI* FLA* BUF* MTL * DAL– 200.5 – 1.07

  147. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    The thing I wonder about in regard to that line is when do people begin to consider the supporting cast? The high draft picks (and Eberle) are performing, so what’s after that?

    Based on what I have read and heard that starts next fall.

    I’m sure the degrees by which they are considered will vary.

  148. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Rajala 12-22-34 in his last 33 with OKC. Amazing

    Does he have:

    -a killer shoot out move ?
    -sideburns ?
    -a sense of entitlement ?

    Since he played in the ECHL and killed it, then came back to the AHL and started killing it there #3 is probably a no.

    He has created some good value for himself.

    Is he RW?

  149. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Lowetide,

    The thing I wonder about in regard to that line is when do people begin to consider the supporting cast? The high draft picks (and Eberle) are performing, so what’s after that?

    Based on what I have read and heard that starts next fall.

    I’m sure the degrees by which they are considered will vary.

    Which suggests to me we’re looking for:

    1. a real #1D
    2. a veteran 3line winger
    3. a backup goalie
    4. a strong option for 4C until Lander is ready

  150. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I think Mike Brown was a good pickup. Why? He does the job asked and the club doesn’t have to spend another pick on him or deal someone else to get him. I don’t think the group who wanted an enforcer have said a word negative about Brown since he arrived in EDM.

    I also don’t think he’s made a lick of difference, but the Oilers management wants that guy and now they have him..

    Back to drafting skill. (not)

    Its like a relief that he’s on the roster so they can stop spending so much value on auditions.

    Eager will have to be bought out.

    Roster spot worth more than his buyout.

    I heard he was excited to be part of the rebuild, so he wanted 3 years as term when he signed.

    Well done Mr. Tambellini

  151. Ice Sage says:

    cabbiesmacker: Absolutely. See my somewhat biased point above.

    Blackhawks, Bruins, and KIngs all had effective complimentary players that helped them win Stanley.

    I feel for the kids. It’s pretty damned unfair and I hate to see it happening to a kid like Hall. They were really, really close.

    Nero – Rome – Fiddling

    I think that would be a good 3rd line for the emerging Oil – not so sure about Aron Rome but Vern Fiddler and Niedereiter are exactly the players we’re talking about. Call it the ‘classic’ line?

  152. godot10 says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Godot

    if Weber was available would you trade Eberle, Petry and a pick for him?

    Presupposes that you have already signed Gagner to play 1RW

    Weber ISN’T available, and won’t be. I don’t worry about impossible hypotheticals.

    Besides, the real point is to build a consistent contender, and that is about process and the organization more than any one player. In a capped world, one wants to build an organization capable of consistent competitiveness, able to make a strong push for the Cup two or three times a decade. I sort of despise the whale-hunting philosophy. Whale-hunting is NOT for the rebuild phase, but when one already have that “Detroit” foundation of rock solid year in and year out competitiveness, and you want to find the final piece. Weber, at this point, isn’t value-for-money.
    One only should contemplate paying full price for whales when one is in the final push for a cup, not when one is rebuilding.

    The Oilers when out and got Pronger, when they had a competitive team filled with value-for-money players ready for a contending push.

    At this point in time, Weber would not be a final piece. One makes that kind of move as a final step to contention, not in the initial steps or in the middle.

  153. Woodguy says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    I’m surprised there isn’t more discussion about the fact that the team has decidedly to subtly try to tank the rest of the season.Nothing obvious, like playing Khabi back-to-back (like Calgary with Kipper), but Potter out rather than Whitney, Hemsky out in favor of Jones.These aren’t moves that a team trying to make the playoffs makes.

    I can make a case for the moves.

    OIlers want to watch FIstric close to see if they want to sign him before summer.

    Hemsky is hurt.

    The soft Euro has been hurt since the DET game but still played.

    RK mentioned he’s been hurting since DET and that was on March 15th.

    They lost the last two games with Potter, so spin the wheel of fortune instead of looking at the history of track record.

    Far too much “gut feel” rather than evidence based decision making in the Oilers organization.

    Although, RK isn’t about losing.

    He’d much rather make the playoffs and I doubt the management is telling him how to use the roster very much.

  154. Woodguy says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Its the D as a group and the bottom 8 more than anything.

    Its pretty bad.

  155. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    cabbiesmacker: give the top 6F the Marchant-Moreau-Grier line and add Jason Smith and even a 2004 Eric Brewer and I think you’ll get your answer.

    Now you made me mad.

  156. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    cabbiesmacker: give the top 6F the Marchant-Moreau-Grier line and add Jason Smith and even a 2004 Eric Brewer and I think you’ll get your answer.

    Note: The Oilers acquired all the guys you mentioned when they were dirt cheap nobodies in other organizations. They were all extreme value-for-money players.

    Most of the names that people push here are older soon declining players who would have to be paid full price salaries. (Weber, Clowe, etc…no value-for-money). One pays full price only for the final piece or two, once one is a contender. One will never become a contender if one does earlier in the process.

  157. Woodguy says:

    sliderule,

    cabbiesmacker: Measuring against the median yes, but the median in Edmonton is ….well you know. Pretty massive freeking falloff after those three.

    All Edmonton needs to do is toss a Hossa and Sharp into the top 6 and replicate a third line of Ladd, Brouwer, and Byfuglien so Hall. RNH, and Eberle’s magical powers won’t be quite as necessary.

    They said Chicago model.

    Not me.

  158. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy: I can make a case for the moves.

    OIlers want to watch FIstric close to see if they want to sign him before summer.

    Hemsky is hurt.

    The soft Euro has been hurt since the DET game but still played.

    RK mentioned he’s been hurting since DET and that was on March 15th.

    They lost the last two games with Potter, so spin the wheel of fortune instead of looking at the history of track record.

    Far too much “gut feel” rather than evidence based decision making in the Oilers organization.

    Although, RK isn’t about losing.

    He’d much rather make the playoffs and I doubt the management is telling him how to use the roster very much.

    Just spotted this.

    Good points.

  159. Lowetide says:

    Oilers can win this game–won’t say they are going to–but if they win tonight I think this week is going to be sunshine, lollipops and rainbows.

  160. VanOil says:

    no Souray

  161. striatic says:

    VanOil:
    no Souray

    injury?

  162. VanOil says:

    striatic,

    Rest and recovery according to Fox

  163. Gerta Rauss says:

    Dead Guy Ale again this evening.I was in Oregon last week on a golf trip and we stopped for lunch at the Rogue brewery in Newport.Great food, great beer, it was fantastic. Oregon does beer pretty well, our group sampled several different micro brews that were excellent.

  164. cabbiesmacker says:

    VanOil:
    no Souray

    No Souray Bob?

  165. Gerta Rauss says:

    And when I say sampled, I mean drank to excess.

  166. Gerta Rauss says:

    I think we better hope that one of Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat et al turns into our Shea Weber. I can’t see the real Shea Weber playing for the Oilers anytime soon.

  167. VanOil says:

    Are they ever going to turn the lights on in the Honda Center?

  168. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss: Dead Guy Ale again this evening.I was in Oregon last week on a golf trip and we stopped for lunch at the Rogue brewery in Newport.Great food, great beer, it was fantastic. Oregon does beer pretty well, our group sampled several different micro brews that were excellent.

    Love Oregon, Idaho, Washington.

  169. VanOil says:

    Lowetide: Love Oregon, Idaho, Washington.

    Beer, Potato, Pot

  170. Lowetide says:

    Dammit! YAK with the killer and it doesn’t count!

  171. Lucinius says:

    Wow… soft call that costs us a goal.

  172. Lowetide says:

    AH DAMMIT! Petry to Hall almost!

  173. VanOil says:

    Smid is out shooting the Ducks. This is a good sign.

  174. Lucinius says:

    Bah, Hall has to bury that.

    And how does Yak go from ‘scoring’ to not seeing the ice 4v4?

  175. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Dvo still has the wheels.

  176. Lowetide says:

    This is just awful. Should be 2-0. This WILL bite us in the ass.

  177. Rebilled says:

    I missed the last game.

    This team looks pretty good.

    Refs hate when we score off face-offs.

  178. striatic says:

    Anaheim looks tired.

    did they play some kind of crazy high tempo game last night or something? they look really flat.

  179. BlacqueJacque says:

    Halfway through the first, Smid leads all Oilers with 2 SOG.

  180. Woodguy says:

    One day TV will be broadcast in high enough def, and enough frames per second to see the puck come off of 64′s stick.

    Today is not that day.

  181. BlacqueJacque says:

    striatic:
    Anaheim looks tired.

    did they play some kind of crazy high tempo game last night or something? they look really flat.

    They played last night and won in a shootout with the Kings.

    So… yeah.

  182. ashley says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Gagner’s dimensions:
    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/roster.htm

    Sort of built like Doug Weight. I’m not saying he’s Doug Weight, but Weight played at that size and had no problems with puck battles. In fact he won them all the time, and was hard to take the puck from, partly because of his crafty skating and stickwork, but also because he was strong.

    There was a playoff series in the early 2000′s against Dallas, I believe (an easy guess since it was always Dallas in the early 2000s’) when Dougie Weight annhilated one of the “bigger, heavier” Stars (was it Hatcher?) in the neutral zone, very early in game 3 of the series. He got thrown out of the game for what probably should have been a 2 minute boarding call. The Oilers never got the calls in those Dallas series’.

    He was a tough centreman. They don’t have to be tall.

  183. SK Oiler Fan says:

    For a big guy, Whitney’s shot is underwhelming

  184. striatic says:

    in might get lost beneath all the focus on his competitiveness, speed, strength and skill .. but Taylor Hall is a really smart hockey player.

  185. striatic says:

    ashley: In fact he won them all the time, and was hard to take the puck from, partly because of his crafty skating and stickwork, but also because he was strong.

    “strong” is an adjective that doesn’t get used enough in reference to hockey players.

    you can take “gritty” and “big” and overuse those adjectives, but strength is paramount.

    Datsyuk might not be a big or a gritty guy, but pound for pound he is incredibly strong and it makes all the difference.

  186. Woodguy says:

    striatic:
    in might get lost beneath all the focus on his competitiveness, speed, strength and skill .. but Taylor Hall is a really smart hockey player.

    Leads the Oilers in shots and 5th in the NHL in assists.

    I wonder when “he’s ready to win”

  187. hunter1909 says:

    Has a team ever had a better forecheck than the Ducks tonight?

    It’s like Oilers can’t even get halfway to the blue line.

  188. Lowetide says:

    Oilers getting breaks, playing well and it is 0-0. I don’t like this script. At all.

  189. Lowetide says:

    And there you go.

  190. Lucinius says:

    Inevitable.

    We started running around like idiots and couldn’t bury our chances earlier.

  191. hunter1909 says:

    I was about to type something like ‘lets keep it tied’ lol

  192. Rebilled says:

    Of course. 5th game of the year.

  193. Lucinius says:

    Dvorak is a player we could have used this year.

  194. BlacqueJacque says:

    So it’s going to be one of *those* games where we have a hot start, give up the first goal and slowly crumble.

  195. Lucinius says:

    These refs are bad.

  196. khildahl says:

    If interfering with a live puck four times in twenty seconds doesn’t demonstrate that Tom Kowal needs to stop reffing in the NHL (especially after his record of bizarre stupid penalties) then I give up. The zebras are officially on the ice to impact games.

  197. VanOil says:

    Eberle and RNH are bringing the goon?

  198. Woodguy says:

    Dvo!!

    Old 91 schools young 91.

    I’m not sure 89 is enough to make up up for what he gives up.

    You *always* see the C working in the Dzone down to help out the D.

    Don’t see 89 as much as you should.

  199. Lucinius says:

    Yeah, this one is over. Refs settling things.

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