OILERS AT KINGS G38 (12-13) 6.4.13

One of the fun games fans can play at home (and I hope GMs play in their offices) is “can we win a championship with X player in Y role?” For the Oilers, more and more of the answers are “yes” and the window of opportunity is coming into view.

No matter what happens down the stretch, this season represents a major step forward for the Oilers. There are problems:

  • Steve Tambellini was slow to react in replacing Shawn Horcoff (and Eric Belanger) when injuries impacted center.
  • Steve Tambellini didn’t deliver enough help at the deadline.
  • Steve Tambellini kept several possible “mistake signings” for the summer–should he re-sign Khabibulin, Whitney or Jones that would be a huge error for this burgeoning team.

Before we ask the “can we win” question, let’s have a look-see at what Ralph Krueger is trying to do:

ZONE STARTS–FORWARDS

zone startss

From what I can see, Krueger is less concerned with matchup and more concerned with getting his really skilled players as many zone starts (offensive opportunities) as he can. That’s fine, except the club’s 3rd and 4th lines are not perfectly set up for their task in this scenario. I’d rate Smyth and Horcoff as capable, and certainly Hemsky if the Oilers choose to put him there. After that, we get Eric Belanger, Lennart Petrell and the rest (Eager, Hordichuk, etc–Mike Brown’s Toronto numbers are reflected here so of no help to the discussion). With that as the backdrop–and understanding matchups are less important to the coach–we get this:

CORSI REL FORWARDS

corsirelapril6

The results are as expected–top line ripping it up, 4th line looks like a dog. I’d say the two items deserving of notice are Gagner/Hemsky (they should be in the black) and Yakupov (God love this kid he’s damn near at do).

So, when we ask the question “can the Oilers win a championship with X player in Y role” I get the following:

  1. Taylor Hall as 1line L: Yes. God yes.
  2. Magnus Paajarvi as 2line L: Jury’s out, but he could fill a lesser role offensively and cover the bet defensively.
  3. Ryan Smyth as 3line L: No. I don’t think Smyth will be here when they go deep, although his numbers above are respectable.
  4. Lennart Petrell: NO. No. I love Finns, it pains me to keep writing this.
  5. Teemu Hartikainen as a top 9 option: I don’t know. Jury’s out–I do think he deserves a one season look, 500 at bats.
  6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as 1line C: Yes, but not yet. He needs to mature. Outstanding talent.
  7. Sam Gagner as 2line C: Yes. I don’t think he’s going to be the 2-way C his Dad was, but certainly enough skill to deliver on 2line.
  8. Shawn Horcoff as 3line C: Maybe. The problem is he’s going to erode for a couple more years before everything’s headed in the right direction.
  9. Eric Belanger: No.
  10. Anton Lander as 3 or 4line C: I don’t think so, we’ll have to see. No matter how good his checking, you have to hit about the Mendoza line. If he can perform at replacement level–say Rem Murray in his first stint as a Oiler–then he’ll have a career.
  11. Ales Hemsky as 1line R: Yes. I have zero idea about what the fracture is between 83 and 89, but am confident both can play at a high level.
  12. Jordan Eberle as 2line R: Yes. He’s not perfect, but he is skilled. The burden of the contract may impact him.
  13. Nail Yakupov as 1line R: Yes, eventually. I don’t think it’ll be long, either. He’s impossible to take your eyes off of–even just skating around (as he does sometimes).
  14. Mike Brown as 4line R: These player types don’t really play in the big games, remember BG being so upset? Brown seems to be  a good player for his role.

We’ll discuss defensemen tomorrow.

AND IF CALIFORNIA SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN……

Oilers have a 24.6% chance of making the post-season, I’m still onside with their chances of making the second season. They need to win one on the left coast, then come home and go on a run. And it would be nice if Denver could play a full GD game once in a damn while too.

I’m off the charts with the kids this season. Man. You could go a long while without seeing all of the things we’re seeing right now. This must be what seeing the crops sprout is like for farmers, just electric growth–maybe hydroponics?

Did I ever tell you about the time I visited my Grandpa in Maidstone, Saskatchewan and found out he had all the hyrdoponics and was growing…..tomatoes? This was maybe 1982, I drove down in the summer during my holidays and he was so excited. I’m like, you know, there are some “cash” crops you can grow Grandpa but that wasn’t his (or my) thing.

Anyway, I don’t know how much coaching there is to do during Taylor Hall’s eruption, but do think the club has done a nice job with Paajarvi this season and they seem to be giving Yakupov a little more leeway now. That goal he scored the other night was a memorable one–did you see Calgary goalie MacDonald’s incredulous reaction?–but there’s some coaching to do there.

Which leads me to two questions:

  • I know Nail was in the OHL for two years, but is there a ‘coaching gap’ between Windsor and Sarnia? Or are these lessons learned in Russia that the Yak needs to iron out on the smaller ice?
  • If you’re Magnus Paajarvi, would it have been better to come over after the draft? Are these struggles a result of the smaller ice?
  • If concussions are an issue, and more ice reduces concussions, should the NHL consider the bigger ice?

Warren Zevon. What a man. Smoked half of Peru and still had time to chronicle a generation.

LOWETIDE AT HIGH NOON

Team 1260, noon Edmonton time and your comments and questions are welcome below or @Lowetide_ on twitter. Scheduled to appear:

We’ll talk Oilers at the deadline, Oil Kings, Barons, 2013 draft and the California trip for the Oilers. Hope you can tune in!

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225 Responses to "OILERS AT KINGS G38 (12-13) 6.4.13"

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  1. rickithebear says:

    I want a smyth-smithson-rajalas 4th.

  2. VanOil says:

    You better stay up late or I pull the G Money move.

    Canadian teams and there fans should not have to suffer American afternoon games.

    Edit: G Money fail oh no…

  3. VanOil says:

    rickithebear,

    I am buying but I doubt Oilers value Rajalas ability to score over Browns ability not too.

  4. Lucinius says:

    IN regards to Yak and coaching in Sarnia; didn’t the coach there out-right admit after the draft that he didn’t really coach Yakupov so much as tell him to go fetch the puck? It would adaquately describe the issues he’s had; learning systems, adapting to other players (instead of them adapting to him), not being able to immediately fetch said puck ow that he’s facing skilled opposition and systems, etc..

    Also, I think Lander will end up having an NHL career as a 3C. Not sure it’ll be here, but I’m fairly certain he will. He’s got the hard part down (defensive play, just needs to learn the finer points and systems of it at the NHL level and do so while not saddled with players of Eager/Hordichuk ilk) and provides an ‘extra’ in how he seems to aggravate opponents, thus drawing penalties and ire in a most satisfying manner.

    Scoring? It’ll come, but likely be a touch lower than it should be for a 3C; but line-mates could help there. An eventual 3C of Harski/MPS-Lander-Hemsky could be interesting in two years, letting Horcoff get easier 4C minutes in his retirement years.

    As for Hemsky and Gagner; I’ve never, ever liked those two together. They do not mix well together due to play-styles. Either swap Eberle and Hemsky or swap Hemsky with Yakupov and try to feed the second line as many soft minutes as possible (ideally with someone like Harski with them, dropping MPS down to the third line with Horcoff and Hemsky and allowing the fourth line to be Smyth-Smithers-Brown/Jones).

  5. sliderule says:

    I watched Jusse Jokinen score a goal and the winning shootout goal and go 13 w and 2 l in face-offs in Pittsburg win.
    I tried to think of reasons we didn’t pick him off waivers.

    Our centers are very good at face-offs noo
    Our centers are better in shootouts noooo
    We had too many centers and don’t need help noooo
    Semenko and Buchberger think he can’t fight yes
    Oiler management don’t know come here from sic em yes yes yes.

  6. VanOil says:

    sliderule,

    I agree not making an offer on Jokinen was silly, even worse Carolina kept some of his salary. To add to the potential sillyness LT lists above (UFAs that could be unadvisably resigned) is two mill stone contracts Belanger and Eager. I don’t mind them getting paid but I do mind if they are paid to play for the Oilers. Hopefully they are bought out.

  7. VanOil says:

    A slightly more positive out look on Oilers playoff chances can be found here http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opinion/2013/04/nhl-is-in-for-a-wild-three-week-finish.html

    Basical Tim Wharnsby splits the season into quarters. We are now in the final quarter. In the third quarter we were 8-2-2 for 18 pts. Better than the teams around us that we are fighting for a playoff place with.

    I realize this is crazy optimistic, but hope is all we have after Datsyuks dagger in the dying seconds last night and facing two Southern California teams good at ice hockey. (spits)

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    WG has mentioned before that he thought Yak was basically without a working steersman in jr:

    http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=cybernetics&allowed_in_frame=0

    I’m much more happy with Magnus’ use this year… but the last two were really unnecessary fumbles.

    What’s up with CBC picking up the bottom feeder day-game? Even if you expect EDM to suck (fair enough), wouldn’t you pick LAK over PHI? I would.

    Finally… what’s up with Genesis? I literally have no idea if I like this band or not. I listen to their albums and I’m always enjoying myself yet remain uncommitted.

    I mean what’s up with the Gabriel era?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwcsPomb_XA

    the music is solid prog… but Gabriel’s voice is… umm… kinda… weak and grating. almost like he’s going for a bar band kind of sound, gruff and distant, like this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtqF0qBqzZo

    but… how does that rough, sloppy sound match with the sheen of prog? it really doesn’t. As punchy and jagged as prog can get in its technical wizardry, it never really strays from the cleanest sounds a studio has to offer:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9JEPeeohYs

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZ_CGR6UQrU

    and then… his solo efforts are always much cleaner sounding:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fF8wU4Nl9Y

    and then Genesis without Gabriel, despite some fairly middling progish albums:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F2sIeibLmQ

    is indisoluble from the “MTV era” for me and the ultimate convergence of rock and pop with singles and video. This Genesis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTdU9m3nhu8

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zU9lv_WqK6k

    lives alongside these cultural touchstones:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccenFp_3kq8

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lN-4lX0QyZc

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B_UYYPb-Gk

    and it becomes nearly impossible to understand them as a “band” with “albums” that you listen to anymore. They are simply part of the scenery of pop music that is everywhere, enjoyable, oddly fascinating… but ultimately impossible to render critical judgment upon…

    do I like this band… ?

    I have no idea.

  9. Ducey says:

    Please ask Mr Byers what the deal is with the amateur tryout for Joey Leach. Former 3rd round pick of the Flames who did not sign despite good size and decent stats.

    Are the Oilers likely to sign him? Is he filler or a prospect?

    Also, the Oilers were right not to make any major upgrades at the deadline. I am quite sad they didn’t get anything for Bulin, Jones and Whitney – although there may not have been a market for any of them.

  10. Woodguy says:

    WC Standings

    CHICAGO 0.806
    ANAHEIM 0.724
    SAN JOSE 0.622
    VANCOUVER 0.622
    LOS ANGELES 0.608
    MINNESOTA 0.595
    ST LOUIS 0.583
    DETROIT 0.566
    ———————————-
    EDMONTON 0.527
    PHOENIX 0.514
    COLUMBUS 0.513
    DALLAS 0.500
    NASHVILLE 0.500
    CALGARY 0.417
    COLORADO 0.392

    Its DET they are trying to catch now.

    Interesting to note that if the Oilers would have held on the 2 goal lead against them at home and won in regulation instead of losing in OT, EDM would be at .540 and DET at .539

    Should a would a could a.

    DET has a toughish schedule. It could come down to the wire.

    As for the failiure in the middle of the season I don’t think you can let RK off the hook for breaking up 4-93-14.

    They were out chancing everyone with bad puck luck.

    I understand trying different combos, but none come close to the effectiveness of 4-93-14 and it took him forever to get back to it.

    The Oilers prolonged slump while 10 was out also coincides with RK breaking up 4-93-14.

    The Oilers will have a much, much better chance to win in ANA on Monday than in LA today.

    LAK plays ANA tomorrow, so the Oilers will get ANA on the 2nd night in a row and 3rd in 4 nights, same scenario as the Oilers were in VAN, except ANA is at home, but the Oilers don’t have to travel to get there so its a wash that way.

    LAK lead the NHL in out shooting opponents when the score is close:

    http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2012.php?sort=6&section=close

    The Oilers are 29th, only ahead of BUF.

    During the win streak the Oilers were scoring early and taking team out of it, or trashing a team like CAL which has nothing to play for, after giving up an early lead.

    Oilers will win this if there goalie is better than LAK.

    If Doobie stands on his head and Quick is pedestrian or worse (his .896 this year is really meh, 46th in the NHL out of goalies who have played at least 10 games), then the Oilers have a chance.

    A couple of PP goals will certainly help the cause.

    Go Oilers!

    *clap,clap*

  11. velo says:

    This is where I believe stats sometimes paint a partial picture. I feel that guys like Petrell are super-essential parts of winning teams. He does the stuff that’s hard to quantify. To start, he’s an amazing penalty killer. The amount he keeps out doesn’t account for the fact when he’s PKing, the stars are resting with a high probability that the score will be the same when he’s done. Second he does get in on themforecheck and wears the opposition down. I like having players who excell in their discipline, and I suspect the coach does too. Finally, I believe that most nights he out performs his counterpart on the other team, resulting in a net positive.

  12. FastOil says:

    If coach wants to run based on O zone starts, GM needs to provide veteran centres at least for the heavy lifting. In a way this is line matching because it is more likely the opponents offensive players are getting an O zone push as well.

    One simple move would have made a huge difference to this team – Jokinen. Having two centres that are capable full game players would have stemmed the bleeding. A guy like Hannan as well, even though not a superb player, would have been a huge addition on third pairing. He has been playing tough comp so on 3rd pairing he may have more than covered the bet.

    Jokinen is also a Fin, enough said. He also is young enough to have been retained until a centre is mature enough or acquired. Two players, a huge improvement on the two weakest areas, and for little cost. I hope this is the last we see of hand sitting. From here on out improvement at every opportunity is a must for the team to have real and lasting success.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Re; Leach

    Here’s Pronman from May 2012
    Joey Leach

    Talked to a scout last night who projects Leach as a 5-6 type of defensive defenseman with good read and physicality but despite his modest points totals the scout called him a “zero offense guy” at the next level.

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=294

  14. spoiler says:

    Steve Tambellini was slow to react in replacing Shawn Horcoff (and Eric Belanger) when injuries impacted center.

    Steve Tambellini didn’t deliver enough help at the deadline.

    Steve Tambellini kept several possible “mistake signings” for the summer–should he re-sign Khabibulin, Whitney or Jones that would be a huge error for this burgeoning team.

    Ahh, the magic poetry of Witch Hunts and Lynch Mobs…. Zevon would be proud.

    Which leads me to two questions: . Do you mean three questions, lol?

    I know Nail was in the OHL for two years, but is there a ‘coaching gap’ between Windsor and Sarnia? Or are these lessons learned in Russia that the Yak needs to iron out on the smaller ice?

    WTF? Is it damning day today? I truly have no idea what you are talking about here.

    If you’re Magnus Paajarvi, would it have been better to come over after the draft? Are these struggles a result of the smaller ice?

    So obviously no. This has been commented on so many times before. I believe it was Stu that said Swedish players like to stay a year to gain physical confidence. Not that it matters. Paajarvi wanted to stay. So I guess you would have traded him then, eh LT?

    If concussions are an issue, and more ice reduces concussions, should the NHL consider the bigger ice?

    Bizarre question to be thrown in the midst of other topics, but I’ll bite…. Is there any evidence of this?

  15. Lucinius says:

    Jokinen; I find it interesting how so many are stuck on this considering the Oilers were far from the only team who passed (and not the only team to pass while having weakness at center). I actually like the player and wouldn’t of minded him here, but for the contract.

    And you can’t just throw out there that Carolina would of eaten some of it, as they did end up doing, because one never knows if anyone else was able to get that out of Carolina, or if it was a last minute push by a superior GM or part of what comes from two GMs who have a history of doing deals together, as they did with Staal.

    Not all deals are available to all teams. If we could of gotten him as Pittsburgh did? Would of been great, but I don’t think Carolina does that deal before the deadline regardless (so it wouldn’t have helped during the real center-position crunch here that saw Horcoff, Lander and then Belanger getting hurt). At which point it was likely going to be Pittsburgh anyways, given the circumstances.

    Just my opinion.

  16. boopronger says:

    I see no issues with Petrell. Works his ass off, is a bitch to play against and can create the odd scoring chance. Underrated shot. Great pker. Ugliest player on the team, sure.

  17. dessert1111 says:

    Hemsky and Yakupov are both considered 1RW and Eberle 2RW? Isn’t Eberle taking on tougher competition than Hemsky this year and doing better? Yak will likely be a 1RW in the future but I don’t see how anyone other than Eberle is the 1RW on the team currently, and would suspect next year will be the same thing. Can they win with him in that slot?

  18. Jonathan Willis says:

    That Detroit game continues to loom large, but with the Oilers this close to the playoffs the really damning thing is that they spent most of the year with just three centres (incl. that Detroit game).

    Management’s inability to make a move like Smithson for a 4th round pick two months before they did it just might end up costing this team the playoffs.

  19. GordM says:

    boopronger:
    I see no issues with Petrell. Works his ass off, is a bitch to play against and can create the odd scoring chance. Underrated shot. Great pker. Ugliest player on the team, sure.

    Do you mean like a prison bitch?

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    boopronger:
    I see no issues with Petrell. Works his ass off, is a bitch to play against and can create the odd scoring chance. Underrated shot. Great pker. Ugliest player on the team, sure.

    It’s just his corsirel numbers tell a different story. this year and last he’s at the bottom of the team at evs.

    last year he actually had a solid 4vs5 year:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2011_s&f2=4v5&f4=C%20LW%20RW&f5=EDM&f8=1-20&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

    this year he’s fallen off:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2012_s&f2=4v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f5=EDM&f8=1-20&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

    he plays hard, blocks shots, has good speed… but no… he’s not a good hockey player. he bleeds chances and is in Ryan Jones territory when it comes to taking a pass.

  21. VanOil says:

    boopronger:
    I see no issues with Petrell. Works his ass off, is a bitch to play against and can create the odd scoring chance. Underrated shot. Great pker. Ugliest player on the team, sure.

    Didn’t you hear about the Obama’s lesson on commenting on looks this week. How are we going to be able to respect Petrell for his skill now that you have said that.

  22. Jonathan Willis says:

    As for Petrell: agree 100%. In less than 100 games with the Oilers, most of them played with and against fourth-liners, Edmonton has been out-shot 396-272 with Petrell on the ice 5-on-5.

    I don’t care what intangibles he brings. He’s getting killed by the dregs of the league. That’s a problem – especially since he’s so easily replaced cheaply in free agency.

  23. sliderule says:

    Jokiinen would have been our second or third line center next year depending on Gagner RfFA negotiations .

    His contract at 2.1 mill for only one year is not bad for a center who can deliver face-offs shootouts and offensive production

    It would have given us leverage in Gagner negotiations..Right now we have none.

    He was waived it wouldn’t have cost us another pick.

    We will be under the cap for sure when we buy out Belanger and Eager.

  24. FastOil says:

    Lucinius:
    Jokinen; I find it interesting how so many are stuck on this considering the Oilers were far from the only team who passed (and not the only team to pass while having weakness at center). I actually like the player and wouldn’t of minded him here, but for the contract.

    And you can’t just throw out there that Carolina would of eaten some of it, as they did end up doing, because one never knows if anyone else was able to get that out of Carolina, or if it was a last minute push by a superior GM or part of what comes from two GMs who have a history of doing deals together, as they did with Staal.

    Not all deals are available to all teams. If we could of gotten him as Pittsburgh did? Would of been great, but I don’t think Carolina does that deal before the deadline regardless (so it wouldn’t have helped during the real center-position crunch here that saw Horcoff, Lander and then Belanger getting hurt). At which point it was likely going to be Pittsburgh anyways, given the circumstances.

    Just my opinion.

    Jokinen has one year left and the Oilers have loads of cap and a weak team. Could have taken the whole salary to secure the deal which I am sure the Canes would have liked.

    Really they just need to become willing to acquire better players whoever it is until there is no more room. LA and Boston as legitimate contenders don’t spend to the max but between them have two of the best GM’s. The other teams will likely have to spend if they want to contend for reals.

    Nobody contends if they let weaker players get walloped on a continual basis and do nothing.

  25. SK Oiler Fan says:

    I’m betting on Babcock
    More importantly: The D – Can they win with a Smid, Petry, Schultz top 3?

  26. boopronger says:

    So your telling me that our 4th line is getting outshot? hmmm guess its all petrells fault. ITS THE 4TH LINE.

    Romulus,
    By that metric, horcoff is far worse then petrell and gagner is easily the best player on the team on the pk.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    boopronger: Romulus,
    By that metric, horcoff is far worse then petrell and gagner is easily the best player on the team on the pk.

    you have to look at all the metrics there.

    Gagner, next to Jones, has the least TOI/60 4v5. also, his PDO is off the charts. he’s been lucky… ironically so is Petrell’s… so he’s even worse than his corsirel shows.

    the points those 2 have 4v5 are helping skew the numbers. read them all.

  28. Lowetide says:

    boopronger:
    So your telling me that our 4th line is getting outshot? hmmm guess its all petrells fault. ITS THE 4TH LINE.

    Romulus,
    By that metric, horcoff is far worse then petrell and gagner is easily the best player on the team on the pk.

    The Oilers are asking their 4th line to take more of the chores. They need better players. I remember very well the moment they signed Petrell:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/06/oilers-sign-petrell-confuse-thousands.html

  29. velo says:

    Jonathan Willis:
    As for Petrell: agree 100%. In less than 100 games with the Oilers, most of them played with and against fourth-liners, Edmonton has been out-shot 396-272 with Petrell on the ice 5-on-5.

    I don’t care what intangibles he brings. He’s getting killed by the dregs of the league. That’s a problem – especially since he’s so easily replaced cheaply in free agency.

    I agree on the numbers side. But, on a personnel side I don’t. If you replace him on the cheap, the next thing you do is replace the replacement with a decent PKer. Around and around we go with the 4th line. I would surround Petrell with a good center to win the odd draw, as Petrell seems to always start in his own end, compliment him with a vetran defensive winger and the 5×5 woes are solved. It’s just too easy to say bring in somone else rathern than build from players’ strengths.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers are asking their 4th line to take more of the chores.

    who else recalls with great confusion 37 getting more TOI than many of our top 6 in recent games.

    RK has been rolling his lines with an equality only a Human Rights Tribunal could respect.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: who else recalls with great confusion 37 getting more TOI than many of our top 6 in recent games.

    RK has been rolling his lines with an equality only a Human Rights Tribunal could respect.

    Hahaha. Greenpeace loves the Oilers!

  32. boopronger says:

    So petrell plays far more on the pk yet has a worse relcorsi. Sorry, still dont see the correlation to a horrible player. Im willing to learn however.

  33. jfry says:

    Our mgt team doesn’t leave the prairies other than for vacation. Yes. If JJ would have been playing in the bchl, I think we would have nabbed him. You’d figure that given our recent memorable defeat at the hands of the eastern conference in game seven 2006 that our mgt would remember that there’s actually teams in the states with NHL players.

    Instead we’ll end up getting a bunch of draft and follow players from the dub. It’s dissapointing how small our view of the hockey world is.

    sliderule:
    I watched Jusse Jokinen score a goal and the winning shootout goal and go 13 w and 2 l in face-offs in Pittsburg win.
    I tried to think of reasonswe didn’t pick him off waivers.

    Our centers are very good at face-offs noo
    Our centers are better in shootouts noooo
    We had too many centers and don’t need help noooo
    Semenko and Buchberger think he can’t fight yes
    Oiler management don’t know come here from sic em yes yes yes.

  34. godot10 says:

    Jordan Eberle is in the top 50 in league scoring, safely in first line production territory. (And he is having a lousy year supposedly.) His contract will be a bargain, as most 1st line players will be earning more than what he earns.

    Hemsky will never be a 1st line player again. His peak years are past.

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    boopronger:
    So petrell plays far more on the pk yet has a worse relcorsi. Sorry, still dont see the correlation to a horrible player. Im willing to learn however.

    Well… far more important than his 4v5 contribution is his 5v5. the vast majority of his TOI is going to be 5v5.

    A coach needs a 4v5 player to be able to keep his head above water at 5v5 or he’s wasting a roster spot.

    The analogy would be a pure fighter. SMAC was a hell of a fighter for the half minute of hockey he played. if you had him out on the ice for anything else, however, the results were horrible.

    The same is true of 37 (to a far less degree).

    Or, even if I concede he’s a good 4v5 option, having a player on the roster to play only 2.61 TOI/60 4v5 is a pointless experiment.

    He’s got to play 5v5 and when he does, we lose.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Dillon Simpson ‏@Simmer18 4 Apr

    For the number of you who seem to think I may be planning on leaving UND, I’m not going anywhere #senioryear
    Expand

    The Oilers have something here. Hope the hell he signs next spring.

  37. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy,

    Oilers will win this if there goalie is better than LAK.

    I wrote this before my first coffee with half closed eyes.

    Lordy

    Oilers will win this if their goalie is better than LAK

  38. Woodguy says:

    boopronger:
    So petrell plays far more on the pk yet has a worse relcorsi. Sorry, still dont see the correlation to a horrible player. Im willing to learn however.

    RelCor, Corsi etc are all 5v5 stats.

    They do not take into account 4v5 shots etc.

    Edit: – You can look at 4v5 Corsi, RelCor etc, but they are essentially useless in man advantage situations imo

    I like to look at pure SA/60 4v5. Credit for blocking shots on the PK is important as its a skill, so Corsi in that situation is not the right tool to use.

    SA or Fenwick is better.

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10:
    Jordan Eberle is in the top 50 in league scoring, safely in first line production territory.(And he is having a lousy year supposedly.) His contract will be a bargain, as most 1st line players will be earning more than what he earns.

    Hemsky will never be a 1st line player again.His peak years are past.

    I think 14 has looked a lot better lately and don’t doubt that his repaired broken finger is part of the puzzle.

    I remain optimistic but agnostic on whether he will cover his contract bet.

    I’m at a loss as to the 83 dumping of late. it seems premature to write him off.

  40. Lowetide says:

    re: fancy stats. I do think that you can sometimes make a case for grey area, Jon wrote a brilliant item yesterday that peers into Corey Potter and sees some light.

    However, I don’t think the angle or lens makes much different for Petrell: he’s not NHL replacement level in his role. Or any other.

  41. godot10 says:

    sliderule:
    Jokiinen would have been our second or third line center next year depending on Gagner RfFA negotiations .

    His contract at 2.1 mill for only one year is not bad for a center who can deliver face-offs shootouts and offensive production

    It would have given us leverage in Gagner negotiations..Right now we have none.

    He was waived it wouldn’t have cost us another pick.

    We will be under the cap for sure when we buy out Belanger and Eager.

    Jokinen’s cap hit is $3 million, NOT $2.1 million. Jokinen would have given the Oilers 8 forwards with $3 million dollar cap hits. You have no money to improve the D with that many forwards with such large cap hits.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: RelCor, Corsi etc are all 5v5 stats.

    They do not take into account 4v5 shots etc.

    Edit:– You can look at 4v5 Corsi, RelCor etc, but they are essentially useless in man advantage situations imo

    I like to look at pure SA/60 4v5.Credit for blocking shots on the PK is important as its a skill, so Corsi in that situation is not the right tool to use.

    SA or Fenwick is better.

    Corsi is best used as a proxy for possession so counting blocked shots is important

    When its 4v5, you don’t need to look at possession numbers, you know who is going to own the puck.

    You want to look at shots against rate and shots + missed shots rate.

    Because blocking a shot 4v5 is a skill that is desirable, I prefer to pull them out to credit the PKer who is good at it.

  43. boopronger says:

    U want the player to have his head above water at 5v5, i get that. I just dont agree that rel corsi is the measurement to use for that. To me, gagner is having a fine season yet hes in the red for rel corsi. Does that mean trade him?

    The blackhawks are destroying everyone, best +/- in the league, yet pat kane’s rel corsi is -16.3. How is that possible? Advanced stats are a nice thing to look at, but dont tell the whole story.

  44. denny33 says:

    Jonathan Willis,

    Agreed.

    And I don’t need to see the numbers….

    I have seen Paul Bissonette’s 4th line dominate us. I have seen Brian McGrattan’s line dominate us. And finally, I just witnessed a Tom Sestito line hem us in….

    If I would not have seen it with my own eyes, I would not have believed it..

    Petrell seems to be really liked by the coach as well. Lots of 3rd period ice time at critical times.

    What makes me nervous is that I am not sure the coach and management share our views on Petrell.

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    thanks. I’ll discontinue peering at 4v5 corsi numbers.

    the other thing to look at would be Bruce’s zone exit work once he puts 37s numbers up (if he ever does). so far he’s concentrated at C, D and 5v5.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    boopronger:
    U want the player to have his head above water at 5v5, i get that. I just dont agree that rel corsi is the measurement to use for that. To me, gagner is having a fine season yet hes in the red for rel corsi. Does that mean trade him?

    The blackhawks are destroying everyone, best +/- in the league, yet pat kane’s rel corsi is -16.3. How is that possible? Advanced stats are a nice thing to look at, but dont tell the whole story.

    both Kane and Gags are a bit of a time bomb defensively. both seem to cheat for offence too.

    almost all of CHI is off the PDO charts. they’ve had a classic “have to be good to be lucky” kind of year.

    I think when a player is producing points but bleeding chances, shots or even points going the other way… the response is not to dump them but to dig a little deeper: are they growing into something (a 2-way), are they high risk/reward players, are they lucky.

    89 for example seems to have blossomed offensively, but taken a step back defensively. I don’t think you can applaud the one without worrying over the other.

  47. sliderule says:

    Carolina held onto 900 k of Jojinens salary so if we picked him up on waivers there would be 3mill cap hit but we are going to be under the cap.

    There are no top four UFA defencemen that the oil can sign so if we want to improve we have to trade.

    Taking Jokinen would have allowed us to trade Gagner for a top four defender.

    He is the only forward other than the untouchables who can do that.

    Hemsky and MPS will not get you a top four.

  48. Ribs says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think 14 has looked a lot better lately and don’t doubt that his repaired broken finger is part of the puzzle.

    I remain optimistic but agnostic on whether he will cover his contract bet.

    I’m at a loss as to the 83 dumping of late. it seems premature to write him off.

    Hemsky has missed practices lately with an unknown ailment. It doesn’t appear to be his shoulders and he looks to be skating okay. Concussion, maybe? He’s good for another spurt here soon, I’m sure.

  49. Ribs says:

    Steve Tambellini didn’t deliver enough help at the deadline.

    He said in his deadline presser that he was “Sending a message”. Message received.

  50. G Money says:

    My concern is CorsiRel does not provide a complete enough picture for the task of looking at the value of our non-first liners. The goodness of the Hall-RNH-Ebs line is going to skew those numbers …

    I think in this case (and this is the opposite of what I expected), I expected the #1 goodness to push everyone elses CorsiRel DOWN … but it actually goes UP.

    To round out the equation, I took a look at the Vollman charts (http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts) … I’ve become a big fan of these, as they add in and make obvious the influence of the critically important measures of ZS and QoC.

    In this case, it’s pretty clear – only the Big Three hold their heads above water. And of the others, only Horc, Smid, Petry, Hemsky, and surprisingly Yak City (man he’s going to be good) have ZS/QoC excuses for their shot numbers. Schultz Jr has his rookieness as an excuse.

    It will be exciting to see this team with the Big Three soon to be Big Five leading the charge … but there is still lots of work to be done on the D pairings and the other lines, and to replace the veterans going down. Without that, instead of being legitimate contenders, every year will be a collection of run-and-gun games culminating in a desperate a fight to make the playoffs.

    VanOil:
    You better stay up late or I pull the G Money move.

    Canadian teams and there fans should not have to suffer American afternoon games.

    Edit: G Money fail oh no…

    I was so tempted to go back and post again and try and not fail, but down that path leads only pain and suffering. But then I realized – hey man, no need to fret, that was a total success … ’cause now I got me a “move”! 15 minutes of fame, here I come!

  51. eidy says:

    Can you clarify the euro signing situation with pronman or fellow. Don’t like the crickets on Gernat.

    Thanks. Looking forward to the show

  52. DeadmanWaking says:

    Woodguy:

    As for the failiure in the middle of the season I don’t think you can let RK off the hook for breaking up 4-93-14.

    I’m less enamoured with a coach running a team for a whole season–even a short season–built around having one line trying to win the game, and three lines trying not to lose the game.

    Interesting to note that if the Oilers would have held on the 2 goal lead against them at home and won in regulation instead of losing in OT, EDM would be at .540 and DET at .539

    Doesn’t this seem to happen rather a lot on teams where the “trying not to lose basket” is large and floppy? Right after that game I was thinking to myself: We just carved a pound of flesh out of our upside, if the season comes down to the wire.

    Much of the debate here is buried under your phrase “the hook” which presumes the goal of the season was to make the playoffs. I’m not arguing the converse, but I am arguing to dull the barb. Reasonable expectations for the season was to position ourselves in the rumble seat with the prospect of making some noise in the final week or two of the season.

    I think it complicates teaching team identity when you persistently segregate the team into the golden boys and all the rest. If making the playoffs was the only consideration, to hell with team identity.

    There comes a time when making the playoffs should be the only consideration. But now is not that day. People sucker themselves into thinking this way on drought-based reasoning: we haven’t made the playoffs for six stinking years! It’s a gambler’s fallacy to give the past power over the present. Krueger should coach the team differently because of the Quinn experiment? Fascinating.

    It makes a hell of a lot more sense to give the future power over the present. It was sorely needed for this team to crawl back into contention. But how much does it really matter to our future success that we actually make the playoffs in Push One? To experience a spiff of bliss which presumably amounts to a brief taste of the second season, trading chances with Chicago for five games in a thrilling display entirely unlike playoff hockey? Our nucleus of players who would derive full value from the experience is small: Hall, Smid, Petry, Gagner, Dubnyk. Eberle and Paajarvi are maybe on the cusp of being able to grow some hair and dig deep for a playoff gear. Our old guys are on the diving down-slope. Nugent is still growing out of his peach fuzz. For Nail and Justin the whole experience would be just another giant blur at the end of a giant blur. It would be good for all of our younger players to break their cherry sooner rather than later, but the precise timing is hardly so essential as it seems wandering the parched desert.

    I don’t buy the logic of Krueger tying one hand behind his back to coach the whole of the short season to cross a thin bright line.

    His other motivation for not breaking up his killer threesome would have been to cast Oiler management (those who hired him and who write his paychecks) in the worst possible light, having ridden his Machiavellian streak to great success as a motivational speaker. After one trades six silver coins for three gold coins, it’s not the fault of the bronze coins that no silver coins remain, yet the optics could be arranged to accentuate this impression.

    How does Krueger go about breaking the habit of an over-reliance on looking for a specific lead pass when he plays a guy with Taylor Hall every game of the season? That sounds nuts, doesn’t it? Sometimes a coach needs to risk exchanging a gold line for two silver lines to maintain the balance between over-reliance on the never-washed pair of lucky underwear and stocking a full drawer of lucky-enough underwear.

    “I always wear my lucky underwear for my hard exams,” Pearson said. “The trick is to never wash your lucky underwear or else the luck will wash off. I have never gotten less than a B on an exam wearing that thing.”

    Staring at SCS, it’s pretty easy to fall into the hook trance, since that’s the number it features. This is why I always add up our chances to finish tenth or better–to blunt that hook until the time is ripe. So we missed the playoffs for six years? So what? Winners take a forward view. The past can’t be changed.

    Bear in mind we’re clashing in the mode of two concerned parents on whether the lower the boom today or tomorrow. This is not a clash of parenting styles. It’s just a minor scuffle on precisely when to press or endure.

  53. Ducey says:

    sliderule:
    Jokiinen would have been our second or third line center next year depending on Gagner RfFA negotiations .

    His contract at 2.1 mill for only one year is not bad for a center who can deliver face-offs shootouts and offensive production

    It would have given us leverage in Gagner negotiations..Right now we have none.

    He was waived it wouldn’t have cost us another pick.

    We will be under the cap for sure when we buy out Belanger and Eager.

    I can’t agree. Jokinen’s pt totals have gone from 65 in 2009-2010, then 52 then 46 to an 82 game equivalent of 27 this year. He has good faceoff skills but doesn’t hit or fight. I expect his point totals would stay pretty low in a 4th line role. He might be good in a shoot out but its not like the Oilers need that.

    There is a reason he was waived and not picked up.

  54. Ducey says:

    sliderule:
    Carolina held onto 900 k of Jojinens salary so if we picked him up on waivers there would be 3mill cap hit but we are going to be under the cap.

    There are no top four UFA defencemen that the oil can sign so if we want to improve we have to trade.

    Taking Jokinen would have allowed us to trade Gagner for a top four defender.

    He is the only forward other than the untouchables who can do that.

    Hemsky and MPS will not get you a top four.

    If Jokinen is your seond line C, you will sonn need to fill that hole too.

  55. DBO says:

    I expect this is the group they see next year

    Hall-Nuge_ebs
    Paajarvi-gagner-Yak
    Harsky-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Smyth-Lander-Brown

    I am OK with that. More depth, some size and grit spread out a bit. I would like to see this lineup right now, but have hope that Smithson settles the 4th down and allows us to run a smarter lineup (Joes to the 4th, Smyth to the 3rd)

    Hope the lineup tonight is

    hall-Nuge-ebs
    Paajarvi-gagner-Yak
    Smyth-Horc-Hemsky
    Jones-Smithson-Brown

  56. Lucinius says:

    Not getting the pro-Petrell aspect of things. The mere thought of it puzzles me. He has his moments, sure, but overall is a negative impact on the team’s on-ice product, much like Eager and Hordichuk were. Unlike them, he provides the ability to pk, but even then I don’t believe he’s one of our strongest at the discipline. Moreover, we have players who can take that spot and should be getting more pk time, regardless — Paajarvi, primarily.

    Lander, or whomever takes his slot, as well could use time on the pk to learn it without having to act as a center and get thrown to the wolves (if he ever plays; god damn our management is idiotic — send him down, dress him.. just let the guy play somewhere! The boy is going to get whiplash..)

    5v5 there’s at least one player in the system more capable than Petrell is, as well; Harski (who, this year, is also better than Jones).

    Petrell is just not very good at NHL hockey.

    Re. Jokinen; I actually like the player. I just don’t see how it would have worked with Edmonton. I don’t think Management’s mistake was in not grabbing Jokinen when he was in waivers, I believe it was in proper asset management (such as with Omark and others) and horrible management of the 50 contract limit that ham-strung the Oilers in possible procurement.

    Also, I don’t think, going forward, Jokinen would be a solid replacement for Gagner as a 2C. Gagner has his warts, but he has a very solid place on this team, especially given his age. You simply need to feed him soft opposition as much as possible while feeding the first and third line out against the toughs.

    And move him away from Hemsky — putting those two together and keeping them together is one of the more stubborn ideas in the Oilers organization. Drop Hemsky down to the third line and bump Yakupov up. Call up Harski and put him and MPS on those second and third lines till we see which fits best where and drop Smyth to fourth line wing, with Smithers as the center. Rotation Brown and Jones in the other wing. Sit Smyth occasionally for rest.

    But that’s just me.

  57. VanOil says:

    Lucinius:
    Not getting the pro-Petrell aspect of things. The mere thought of it puzzles me. He has his moments, sure, but overall is a negative impact on the team’s on-ice product, much like Eager and Hordichuk were. Unlike them, he provides the ability to pk, but even then I don’t believe he’s one of our strongest at the discipline. Moreover, we have players who can take that spot and should be getting more pk time, regardless — Paajarvi, primarily.

    Lander, or whomever takes his slot, as well could use time on the pk to learn it without having to act as a center and get thrown to the wolves (if he ever plays; god damn our management is idiotic — send him down, dress him.. just let the guy play somewhere! The boy is going to get whiplash..)

    5v5 there’s at least one player in the system more capable than Petrell is, as well; Harski (who, this year, is also better than Jones).

    Petrell is just not very good at NHL hockey.

    Re. Jokinen; I actually like the player. I just don’t see how it would have worked with Edmonton. I don’t think Management’s mistake was in not grabbing Jokinen when he was in waivers, I believe it was in proper asset management (such as with Omark and others) and horrible management of the 50 contract limit that ham-strung the Oilers in possible procurement.

    Also, I don’t think, going forward, Jokinen would be a solid replacement for Gagner as a 2C. Gagner has his warts, but he has a very solid place on this team, especially given his age. You simply need to feed him soft opposition as much as possible while feeding the first and third line out against the toughs.

    And move him away from Hemsky— putting those two together and keeping them together is one of the more stubborn ideas in the Oilers organization. Drop Hemsky down to the third line and bump Yakupov up. Call up Harski and put him and MPS on those second and third lines till we see which fits best where and drop Smyth to fourth line wing, with Smithers as the center. Rotation Brown and Jones in the other wing. Sit Smyth occasionally for rest.

    But that’s just me.

    Agreed. Not just you.

  58. Gerta Rauss says:

    Smithson say he’s playing per Oilers twitter.

    Haven’t seen a full lineup yet.

  59. boopronger says:

    Lucinius,

    To be fair, its only a couple of us showing a pro petrell side of things and im mostly doing the devils advocate dance. Almost everyone here is anti lennart. My point is that is he on the 4th line and he can bring a few things to the table. If this team were a solid contender, all his numbers would be better. The team is not bad because of him, they are bad despite him. I just dont see his replacement (whoever the posters can dream up), being any better.

    PS I think SMac was the worst oiler Ive ever seen play.

  60. Hammers says:

    Hopefully Smithson gets Jones & Brown ; Horc Smyth & Hemsky ; Gags , Magnus & Yak leaving Hall Rnh & Ebs . Please Ralph see the light if not for today then ANA game .

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: the other thing to look at would be Bruce’s zone exit work once he puts 37s numbers up (if he ever does). so far he’s concentrated at C, D and 5v5.

    I looked at wingers here, with specific comments on Petrell, namely:
    “… Lennart Petrell, who seemingly plays at even strength as if he’s killing penalties! He’s the only forward on the team that exits the zone under control less than 50% of the time. Even when he does successfully turn the puck up ice out of Oilers’ end, his play of choice is to get as far as centre and dump it in. When it comes to moving the puck, Lennart’s compass points straight north.”

    I did one post on powerplay zone exits with the next one destined to be about the PK, where Petrell will play a prominent role. Got a little catching up to do before I can write it, hopefully next week.

  62. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Finally… what’s up with Genesis? I literally have no idea if I like this band or not. I listen to their albums and I’m always enjoying myself yet remain uncommitted.

    The post-Gabriel Genesis is kinda like the post-Gretzky Oilers. The post-Gabriel-and-Steve-Hackett Genesis is kinda like the post-Gretzky-and-Kurri Oilers.

    After that, the rest found greener pastures not at separate addresses like the rest of the Oilers, but by keeping the name of the band intact and cashing in on its established reputation. The “Big Five” had been reduced to “And Then There Were Three”. They went way over to the pop side, and while it was by and large Good pop, it was still pop.

    Whereas the Gabriel era was the band’s creative heyday by a country mile. The disc you link, Trespass, was just the band’s second, and two of the five main guys weren’t there yet. Starting from Nursery Cryme through Foxtrot and Selling England By The Pound to The Lamb Lies Down On Broadway, both Gabriel and the band really found their voice. I recommend listening to the masterful vocals on “The Musical Box”, “Supper’s Ready” or “The Lamia” from the later albums, then revisiting your conclusions about “weak” and “grating”. (Although of course, not all voices suit all tastes.)

    As a 19-year-old prog rock fan, I was super upset the day Peter Gabriel left the band, but have remained a huge fan. He’s gone on to a fabulous and relevant career, tearing down a few walls along the way. He’s my favourite living musician, period.

  63. Bos8 says:

    You know it’s getting really tiresome to get metrics quoted as the endall. Metrics are static and indicators – that’s it, that’s all. They are not Holy Writ. Certainly they have their place and give you a different line of insight but there’s more. Each play is influence by four other people for and five against.

    They are things that happened in the past and might have some bearing on the future. Gee, given equal opportunity a team of crash bangers will have more shots on goal than a team of passers. Hey, the stats tell us so.

    Context people, context.

    Keith Law the baseball guy has backed off stats and started employing both. And baseball is a lot more static than hockey

  64. Woodguy says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    One line to win and 3 to hang on is supeior to none to win and 4 to hang on.

    I’d argue they had one to win, 2 to hang on and a black hole.

    I heard RK say he broke them up because they weren’t scoring.

    I get that, but they were doing everything but scoring, shooting below 5% at one point.

    Breaking them up when all they were was unlucky is akin to superstition and wearing your lucky underwear.

    What he didn’t realize is that is was the stench of the unwashed underoos that affected everyone else and shifted the bell curve firmly to the left.

  65. Woodguy says:

    As per LT via DVD tweet:

    4-93-14
    91-89-83
    94-10-64
    13-52-37

    I mentioned right after the TDD that I’d expect 28 to sit a lot once 52 got in the line up.

    RK sees what we see.

    I don’t mind 64 playing “with his kaptain” as much as most.

    4 and 14 have both mentioned how much they learned about the NHL game in their year on 10′s wings.

    Long view on that one.

  66. Captain's Log says:

    LT what do you think of the Kessy signing? Expected sure…but not great considering the contract limits…

  67. Bos8 says:

    Totally agree on 64 with 10. Someone needs to establish some sort of parameters of what 10 is doing. Right now, no one knows, including 10.

  68. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    This is a very strong post by Tyler about putting corsi into context:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5701

  69. tcho says:

    I think they’re damn close to having two to win and one to hang on (That fourth is still a disaster). It’s a mystery why Gagner & Hemmer can’t get it done on the 2nd unit.

    Back from China btw. Missed some damn great games too (8-2 drubbing of the Embers sounded like great fun).

    Goilers!

    *clapclap*

  70. VanOil says:

    Woodguy:
    I don’t mind 64 playing “with his kaptain” as much as most.

    Long view on that one.

    I also think Smyth is a good pro mentor. But if the Canadian Captain parks his but in front of the net like we hope now that he is returned to the wing his career might shorten. The Yakupovian comet shot has already broken bones.

  71. geowal says:

    So I see the oil have agreed to terms with this Kale Kessy guy they got for Rieder. I thought they were at 50 contracts. Can someone explain how this works? Does he not count against the 50 until July 1 or something? If so then is there any reason they can’t sign Gernat et al.?

  72. godot10 says:

    Captain’s Log:
    LT what do you think of the Kessy signing?Expected sure…but not great considering the contract limits…

    Lots of contracts disappear next year.

  73. DBO says:

    yep. nice coverage by Whitney.

  74. Lucinius says:

    Gagner has to get that out.

    He’d be such a great player if he could play in his own zone.

  75. VanOil says:

    Responding to a goal with your 4th line is dumb

  76. FastOil says:

    At some point the roster has to tailored to who is on the team.

    On a veteran team having a weak 4th line might work. It clearly does not on this team with a young core. They need a capable 4th line centre to play tough minutes so the young guys don’t have to so much.

    The team has enough offensive players, they need workhorses that don’t get handled so easily. When the core matures and can play anyone more consistently, it will reverse to where they might run young players in the bottom tier because they won’t have to play hard minutes or that much.

  77. VanOil says:

    RK seems like a great motivator and have a good development plan but i would love for him to hire a in game strategist as a assistant coach. Kind of like the NFL where the head coach does not necessarily call the plays.

  78. FastOil says:

    It also works with the cap. Now they have room to hire more expensive bottom players (expensive because of quality not overpay) to carry the load, they just haven’t made good decisions and won’t fix it. In the future as top tier guys move into bigger paydays there will be less room to pay the bottom end.

    The GM has to be on top of this and make sure the guys getting paid are capable of doing what is needed, and if not make the appropriate personnel changes. For example if they draft one of the centres and he turns out to be a more rounded player than Gagner it’s obvious what likely has to happen. Or if the vaunted LHD prospects all turn out to be 2nd pairing guys a few of them will have to packaged to get a better player or help in another position.

  79. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers terrified of the King’s bullying tactics, lol.

  80. hunter1909 says:

    Who the hell has Potter, Gagner on the ice together?

  81. hunter1909 says:

    A nice easy game for the Kings today.

  82. hunter1909 says:

    2 minutes – for bullying.

  83. tcho says:

    I thought it was 91 who turned up on the half boards instead of making sure he had the puck, not 89.

  84. godot10 says:

    FastOil:
    It also works with the cap. Now they have room to hire more expensive bottom players (expensive because of quality not overpay) to carry the load, they just haven’t made good decisions and won’t fix it. In the future as top tier guys move into bigger paydays there will be less room to pay the bottom end.

    Hence the Ewanyk/Moroz experiment. Try to build a physical checking line by rapid development of young checkers with the right toolkit, rather than waiting for scoring juniors to fail to score as pros and decide become checkers.

    If the experiments works, you can have a really cheap bottom six.

    If they can get Ewanyk ready by year 3 of his ELC…they have a cheap bottom sixer for 5 years.

  85. jake70 says:

    Man, Nuge, if you won’t shoot, fake it at least.

  86. hunter1909 says:

    I’ll bet Souray’s enjoying this. Oiler’s making like gazelles, just like last game.

  87. Woodguy says:

    Bos8:
    You know it’s getting really tiresome to get metrics quoted as the endall.Metrics are static and indicators – that’s it, that’s all.They are not Holy Writ. Certainly they have their place and give you a different line of insight but there’s more.Each play is influence by four other people for and five against.

    They are things that happened in the past and might have some bearing on the future.Gee, given equal opportunity a team of crash bangers will have more shots on goal than a team of passers.Hey, the stats tell us so.

    Context people, context.

    Keith Law the baseball guy has backed off stats and started employing both.And baseball is a lot more static than hockey

    Using stats out of context is an issue.

    However, if you are going to call out people for it, you need to show specifc spots where the context changes what you should read into the stat.

    To just say “context people” without giving context doesn’t move the conversation forward.

  88. tcho says:

    Oilers PP unit with Yak looked great.

  89. jb says:

    ugh… Kings 15-1-2 when scoring first…

    Anyone else notice that Government of Alberta ad? What the hells that doing in the Staples Center?

  90. hunter1909 says:

    LMAO this is ridiculous. I hope you lames who enjoy fantasies about passive hockey team building are enjoying this game.

  91. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy,

    I think very wise as we fans get to caught up in the “now” of the playoff push we forget that this about building a winner, a cup. Yayupov’s and the rest of the young core are developing and learning what it take to be a champion.

    There can be no greater tutor than Horcov the lion hearted.

  92. tcho says:

    They are playing last year’s SC winner here people. Fair to expect that L.A. will sometimes be getting the better of the play?

  93. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers getting bitch slapped, run out of the rink. Dubnyk’s all alone.

  94. hunter1909 says:

    2-0. Game over.

  95. hunter1909 says:

    tcho: Fair to expect that L.A. will sometimes be getting the better of the play?

    LA have 100% flat out dominated every aspect of play. As did Vancouver. What exactly are you driving at?

  96. Lowetide says:

    Horcoff-Smyth-Hemsky appears! Jonathan Willis called it!

  97. Bos8 says:

    Woodguy: Using stats out of context is an issue.

    However, if you are going to call out people for it, you need to show specifc spots where the context changes what you should read into the stat.

    To just say “context people” without giving context doesn’t move the conversation forward.

    My point and I guess that I should have mentioned it, is that there are too many variables involved to make them more than indicators.

  98. hunter1909 says:

    Against men, Oilers play like 120 pound weaklings.

    Oh well, maybe in 2-3 years…

  99. sliderule says:

    The Nuge better have some sort of injury that doesn’t allow him to win face-offs.Shit half the time he looks like he isn’t even trying.

    If not injured he will be playing wing next year.

  100. tcho says:

    hunter1909,

    Care to provide some sort of objective metric to back that up? I see shots as 7-7. I’m not sure about attempted shots…

  101. Lowetide says:

    I think that’s why the Oilers like Petrell right there. A demon on the forecheck. However, the results just aren’t there/doesn’t win battles or delay the breakout long enough to sustain.

  102. godot10 says:

    Sutter puts the 4th line out against Hemsky. Sutter has no respect for you Ales. Do something about it.

  103. hunter1909 says:

    On a purely physical level, oiler’s have already rolled over on their backs, and in effect told the Kings to have their evil way with them.

  104. hunter1909 says:

    3-0 coming up…

    Oiler’s pass the puck just that split second before they really need to – this let’s the King player who’s bearing down that it’s alright to let up a little.

  105. tcho says:

    Shots 9-7 for the “dominated” Oilers. Care to provide a hit count that shows they are being physically dominated?

  106. hunter1909 says:

    tcho,

    Objective metric? 2-0 and I rest my case.

  107. Lucinius says:

    Not sure why but the Oilers have always seemed to suck at afternoon games. I was expecting a lopsided loss today due to it being the Kings and it being an afternoon game.

  108. Lowetide says:

    tcho:
    Shots 9-7 for the “dominated” Oilers. Care to provide a hit count that shows they are being physically dominated?

    I missed most of the period, but I think penalties were the culprit while I was watching the game.

  109. hunter1909 says:

    Lucinius: Not sure why but the Oilers have always seemed to suck at afternoon games.

    They can suck in so many ways fans need a rolodex. To keep track.

  110. sliderule says:

    Face-offs
    Nuge 0 percent
    Horcoff 17percent
    Gagner 50 percent
    Smithsen 100percent

    Can’t start without the puck all the time.

  111. dessert1111 says:

    geowal:
    So I see the oil have agreed to terms with this Kale Kessy guy they got for Rieder.I thought they were at 50 contracts.Can someone explain how this works? Does he not count against the 50 until July 1 or something?If so then is there any reason they can’t sign Gernat et al.?

    Contracts while players are in Junior/college don’t count. They don’t count until they turn pro. They could theoretically sign all of their Junior players tomorrow and still be at 50 for this year. Anybody’s guess why they haven’t signed Gernat et al yet.

  112. VanOil says:

    tcho:
    hunter1909,
    Care to provide some sort of objective metric to back that up? I see shots as 7-7. I’m not sure about attempted shots…

    TCHO did you see the Vinegar Tasters painting in China? Hunter ain’t finding honey today. Give him a win and who knows. http://www.taoism.net/sanctuary/books/vintaste.htm

    Edit Ben said it better

  113. hunter1909 says:

    Ben,

    LOL. Thanks, I needed that.

  114. Ice Sage says:

    Woodguy:
    WC Standings

    CHICAGO0.806
    ANAHEIM0.724
    SAN JOSE0.622
    VANCOUVER0.622
    LOS ANGELES0.608
    MINNESOTA0.595
    ST LOUIS0.583
    DETROIT0.566
    ———————————-
    EDMONTON0.527
    PHOENIX0.514
    COLUMBUS0.513
    DALLAS0.500
    NASHVILLE0.500
    CALGARY0.417
    COLORADO0.392

    Its DET they are trying to catch now.

    Interesting to note that if the Oilers would have held on the 2 goal lead against them at home and won in regulation instead of losing in OT, EDM would be at .540 and DET at .539

    Should a would a could a.

    DET has a toughish schedule.It could come down to the wire.

    As for the failiure in the middle of the season I don’t think you can let RK off the hook for breaking up 4-93-14.

    They were out chancing everyone with bad puck luck.

    I understand trying different combos, but none come close to the effectiveness of 4-93-14 and it took him forever to get back to it.

    The Oilers prolonged slump while 10 was out also coincides with RK breaking up 4-93-14.

    The Oilers will have a much, much better chance to win in ANA on Monday than in LA today.

    LAK plays ANA tomorrow, so the Oilers will get ANA on the 2nd night in a row and 3rd in 4 nights, same scenario as the Oilers were in VAN, except ANA is at home, but the Oilers don’t have to travel to get there so its a wash that way.

    LAK lead the NHL in out shooting opponents when the score is close:

    http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2012.php?sort=6&section=close

    The Oilers are 29th, only ahead of BUF.

    During the win streak the Oilers were scoring early and taking team out of it, or trashing a team like CAL which has nothing to play for, after giving up an early lead.

    Oilers will win this if there goalie is better than LAK.

    If Doobie stands on his head and Quick is pedestrian or worse (his .896 this year is really meh, 46th in the NHL out of goalies who have played at least 10 games), then the Oilers have a chance.

    A couple of PP goals will certainly help the cause.

    Go Oilers!

    *clap,clap*

    Thanks – that chasm will widen now.
    As you say, the 6 point shift from those 2 home games when Oil were up by 2 going into the 3rd and lost in OT to Det and SJS has come home to roost. When this team is truly good, they’ll win those type of games – or is it the other way around?

  115. Woodguy says:

    Not getting 10′s line out against Carter/Richards is bad.

    Having 10 out against Nolan is bad.

    I know its the road, but at least try.

  116. tcho says:

    VanOil,

    :-) Did not see the Vinegar Tasters, but did see some absolutely amazing stuff. Even after all these years removed from the events (and not being personally attached in any way), I still found it quite emotional to be in Tiananmen Square. That was one of the highlights for me. Day-to-day contact with the Chinese people was also very positive – I was amazed at how friendly and polite people were for a city of 20 million. A funny moment came when our tour guide took us to a neighbouring city (Tian Jin) an explained that it was “only 13 million.”

  117. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I missed most of the period, but I think penalties were the culprit while I was watching the game.

    Oilers getting 5v4 chances too.

    The line match is a bigger problem.

  118. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Not getting 10′s line out against Carter/Richards is bad.
    Having 10 out against Nolan is bad.
    I know its the road, but at least try.

    Ralph likes to rotates all 4 lines, to help keep the team fresh heading toward the playoffs.

  119. tcho says:

    Booya! F’in dominated.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Paajarvi really adds some elements to the PP.

  121. Lucinius says:

    Yay! Paajarvi!

  122. Lowetide says:

    Paajarvi 8 (Yakupov, Gagner)

  123. VanOil says:

    tcho,

    Tiananmen is neat to see, I prefer the park on the other side of the Forbidden city. If he played there it would be renamed Yak city!

  124. rich says:

    Paajarvi in the blue paint. Kids gonna be ok.

  125. Lucinius says:

    Lowetide,

    So does Yakupov, for that matter. Nice to see Krueger using him more on the powerplay.

    If only he believed in this newfangled thing called line matching (or at least not pairing a weak defensive forward line with your worst defensive pairing).

  126. Woodguy says:

    5v4 now even.

    Richards scoring against Gagner the difference.

    Need Supernova to continue 5v5 and 10 to see Richards.

  127. VanOil says:

    I hate Dustin Brown. He may be my least favorite NHL player.

  128. Lowetide says:

    Some very nice battle by J Schultz and the Nuge there. RNH took a high stick but Stanley cup.

  129. tcho says:

    VanOil,

    Be Hei Park (with the white Buddhist temple at the top of the hill), or the Ho Hei (I might be spelling these incorrectly) with the lake and the cool old neighbourhood (cares, bars/restaurants, shops)?

  130. hunter1909 says:

    RNH was practically biting that King player’s ankles.

  131. tcho says:

    Woodguy,

    Are you talking about that first goal? I could’ve sworn it was 44 attempting to clear through 91 (not 89) on the half boards. 91 makes a break up ice rather than playing the puck, and Richards makes the clean steal.

  132. Lucinius says:

    Horrible, horrible sequence there of running around.

  133. Woodguy says:

    91-89-64 owned the puck on that shift.

    Against Richards no less.

    Well done.

  134. VanOil says:

    Yak does not pirouette like Gretzky or the Nuge he twirls like the Tasmanian Devil http://youtu.be/Ed0Hg7stjHE

  135. Lucinius says:

    tcho,

    First goal was 89 with the puck and an extremely half-hearted attempt to get it out low around the boards.

  136. hunter1909 says:

    They’re at least making a game of it this period.

    To be fair, it isn’t much fun having to fight grown men when you’re under 23 years old.

  137. VanOil says:

    tcho,

    Up the Hill when the smog clears, just like in LA!

  138. Woodguy says:

    tcho:
    Woodguy,

    Are you talking about that first goal? I could’ve sworn it was 44 attempting to clear through 91 (not 89) on the half boards. 91 makes a break up ice rather than playing the puck, and Richards makes the clean steal.

    I should be more clear.

    I’m referencing C vs. C, not specific players.

    Not too many mistakes, but also now good plays on that sequence.

  139. Lucinius says:

    I do not understand NHL referees. Their game-to-game consistency simply does not exist.

  140. jake70 says:

    hunter1909:
    They’re at least making a game of it this period.

    To be fair, it isn’t much fun having to fight grown men when you’re under 23 years old.

    they’ll need a few ice packs after the game I suspect…

  141. Lucinius says:

    And why, oh why could we not have gotten Voynov instead of Tuebert…

  142. Lowetide says:

    Yeah, I’m going to go ahead and suggest the lesson for today is “stay out of the penalty box.”

  143. hunter1909 says:

    Lucinius:
    And why, oh why could we not have gotten Voynoy instead of Tuebert…

    Because good teams dump junk and keep the good stuff?

  144. tcho says:

    Going to need a helluva comeback here, and a bit of luck.

  145. Woodguy says:

    That was more a stiff arm from 2 and not a hold.

    I can see why they call it a hold though.

    Most refs don’t call that holding.

    Being an Oiler fan I don’t mind refs calling it close at all.

    I like seeing 2 do that to break up a cycle, and hope to see it again.

    Oilers probably get the next PP not that its 3-1

  146. hunter1909 says:

    I just love watching a team that’s down 3-1 to the defending champs throwing those cute blind passes as they enter the zone.

  147. tcho says:

    What a sequence by 64! Playing the puck off his skate to his stick in full stride and making it look easy, gains the zone effortlessly, and a near miss on a 5 star, cross-ice setup to 91. Man… this kid might be good.

  148. VanOil says:

    91-89-64 works as a line better than it should on paper. I wonder if Parkatti’s numbers after the game will jive with what I am seeing.

  149. Lowetide says:

    One of the things LA offer us is a chance to see 4 lines who can play. I think we fixate on how big they are but man these men can pass the puck, shoot the puck, protect the puck and cradle a pass,

    What’s left?

  150. gogliano says:

    Not a fan of the reffing thus far but Oilers are in this.

    Given the elite #1 line, that 10-94-83 line really gives them options for 3 lines that can make you pay. It makes Smyth relevant, 83 can create offense singlehandedly, and they still play well defensively.

    And Paajarvi’s “strong on the puck factor” has made huge strides.

  151. hunter1909 says:

    Kings look like they’re on a 5 on 3 pp.

  152. jake70 says:

    LA is a little different team than Calgary no?

  153. Gret99zky says:

    Hemsky would be a much more effective player if hockey was an individual sport. Like singles tennis or golf.

  154. tcho says:

    Shots 12-5 for LA this period, but all the PPs account for some of this.

  155. hunter1909 says:

    Gret99zky,

    Are you trying to say Hemsky’s not a great team player?

  156. McSorely Head says:

    VanOil,

    Really? When Carcillo continues to draw a breath?

  157. tcho says:

    hunter1909,

    And his body language shows disinterest.

  158. Rondo says:

    Lowe and Tambo must watch this game and say to themselves we need to get smaller.

  159. VanOil says:

    McSorely Head:
    VanOil,
    Really? When Carcillo continues to draw a breath?

    Yep, but he is on the dis-honorable mention list.

  160. tcho says:

    Oilers look damned lucky not to have been scored on these past few minutes. I’ll agree with Hunter – does look like an LA PP. Boys need to change the momentum.

  161. tcho says:

    Ouch. Outshot 17-5 in the 2nd.

  162. Lucinius says:

    Rondo,

    If we get small enough we could skate right between their legs! They’d never catch Hall if he could do that!

    Honestly, size isn’t a massive issue in this game. Its helping the Kings, but it disguises the real reason they’re dominating down low; massively superior system play and puck support. Been numerous times when the smaller Oiler won a battle against one King only to then lose it against the second King who was right there while the Oiler had zero support.

    I like Krueger, but his line matching and defensive pair deployment, coupled with the atrocious defensive zone system (or lack thereof?) is starting to grate.

  163. McSorely Head says:

    On the plus side, Kyle Wellwood with the go-ahead goal (his 3rd of the season).

  164. sliderule says:

    Yak takes his man into the corner gets high sticked slashes him back and gets in his face and stares him down.

    I know its boys against men but this kid has heart and no fear.

  165. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I looked at wingers here, with specific comments on Petrell, namely:
    “… Lennart Petrell, who seemingly plays at even strength as if he’s killing penalties! He’s the only forward on the team that exits the zone under control less than 50% of the time. Even when he does successfully turn the puck up ice out of Oilers’ end, his play of choice is to get as far as centre and dump it in. When it comes to moving the puck, Lennart’s compass points straight north.”

    I did one post on powerplay zone exits with the next one destined to be about the PK, where Petrell will play a prominent role. Got a little catching up to do before I can write it, hopefully next week.

    Thanks a lot for this. I — like I think everyone else here — really appreciate these posts you and JW are doing. They are very illuminating.

    The reason I must have missed this article is because I followed this link:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/tag/zone-exits/

    the tag “zone exits” doesn’t appear to pull all of the appropriate articles. I tend to read these at my leisure and not as they come, so if they don’t pop up on the googles I miss them.

    RE: Genesis.

    thanks for the tip. I’ll get back to you in a few weeks. I like Trespass and the s/t with “that’s all” a lot… but I’ve never loved them like say Zep or Zappa or Coltrane.

    I’ll dig deeper and see what’s there.

  166. Ryan says:

    Well guys, this is basically the last meaningful game of the season for the Oilers. It’s much later than I anticipated.

    With this pending loss, the Oilers will effectively need to either close a 5 point gap on Detroit in the next ten or 4 on St Louis (who will have 2 games in hand).

    This is it boys!

  167. hunter1909 says:

    Ryan: this is basically the last meaningful game of the season for the Oilers.

    Pity they always seem to go out with a whimper.

  168. asiaoil says:

    Reality always was that they needed 6 of 8 points on this trip. Points in Jan/Feb worth the same as Mar/Apr and we squandered opportunities to really be in the race over the last 9 games with 7 at home earlier in this abbreviated season. Same old same old – out of balance at the beginning of the year and zero in-season moves to address weakness – that’s been the Oiler mgmt MO for the entire Lowe era with very few exceptions.

  169. hunter1909 says:

    asiaoil,

    They can always blame the fans – again.

  170. Ryan says:

    asiaoil,

    I hear you AsiaOil… Drove me crazy that they didn’t find an upgrade on VDV when Horcov was injured.

    Feb 6 to March 8 – without Horcov, the Oilers went something like 4-3-8 for 11/30 points.

  171. Gret99zky says:

    Down 2 goals in the 3rd. Time to double shift Smyth.

  172. hunter1909 says:

    Kings players smiling, look nice and relaxed during their compulsory afternoon workout.

  173. tcho says:

    Now or never.

  174. jake70 says:

    Devan “postman” Dubnyk.

  175. jake70 says:

    RNH underwhelming today by this specator’s eye.

  176. hunter1909 says:

    Nice powerplay, guys.

  177. hunter1909 says:

    Why the hell would anyone living in California want to travel to Alberta?

  178. hunter1909 says:

    Nice time to take a penalty, 94.

  179. Gret99zky says:

    Maybe next year…………

  180. delooper says:

    So the next step in the process for the Oilers: learn how to beat good teams.

  181. tcho says:

    Full value for that loss. That was a schoolin’

  182. Lowetide says:

    I didn’t think the effort was poor today, execution and paying attetion to game plan were keys. Ralph needs to get this penalty problem taken care of, that’s not acceptable.

  183. Genjutsu says:

    The better team won.

  184. Gret99zky says:

    Nice of Tambi to keep his hands off the team at the deadline. Hate to shake-up that locker room. Was one win against Calgary worth it?

  185. delooper says:

    Gret99zky:
    Nice of Tambi to keep his hands off the team at the deadline.Hate to shake-up that locker room.Was one win against Calgary worth it?

    Yeah, why didn’t he trade for Crosby at the deadline!

  186. hunter1909 says:

    delooper: Yeah, why didn’t he trade for Crosby at the deadline!

    Because he’s on IR, silly.

  187. hunter1909 says:

    Might as well begin the unofficial end of season wrap-up:

    Which glaring roster deficiency will management fail to address, next year?

  188. Woodguy says:

    I didn’t hate that game.

    Oilers had 5v4 chances and played a very good LAK team.

    RK lost the match up battle early, but I liked him moving 83 to 89′s line and he got better match ups as the 1st.

    If the Oilers play like that in ANA they have a good chance.

  189. Woodguy says:

    Bos8: My point and I guess that I should have mentioned it, is that there are too many variables involved to make them more than indicators.

    If you are going to say that there are too many variables, you should show exactly where there are too many variable and why you think that.

  190. Lowetide says:

    Agree, WG. The Oilers did a lot of good things today, and ANA will be tired from playing LAK tomorrow. I thought Dubnyk played well, the D had trouble with the things we know they have trouble with but otherwise played well, and the Hall line had chances.

    Scored a PP goal, moved the lines around sufficiently to get some air into the smoldering fire and maybe it ignites Monday.

    This is NOT over.

  191. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Well guys, this is basically the last meaningful game of the season for the Oilers.It’s much later than I anticipated.

    With this pending loss, the Oilers will effectively need to either close a 5 point gap on Detroit in the next ten or 4 on St Louis (who will have 2 games in hand).

    This is it boys!

    This is actually the last really tough game in an easy stretch in the schedule.

    If they play like they can, they are going to win some down the stretch.

  192. Woodguy says:

    delooper:
    So the next step in the process for the Oilers: learn how to beat good teams.

    They need a few better players in key spots before they beat good teams.

    Got 1st vs 1st down, and 2nd D if its 5-2 is ok. 1G is ok, 3C is ok.

    Rest needs work.

  193. Gret99zky says:

    Six bucks and my left nut says we’re not going to be landing in the playoffs.

  194. Woodguy says:

    Rest of the Schedule for EDM:

    MON, 8 APR 2013 OILERS DUCKS
    -ANA will be on 2nd of B2B and 3rd in 4th, very winnable

    WED, 10 APR 2013 COYOTES OILERS
    -EDM at home with rest, PHX plays night before in VAN. Very winnable

    SAT, 13 APR 2013 FLAMES OILERS
    -Fuck you Calgary. WInnable. CAL plays night before at home vs. PHX

    TUE, 16 APR 2013 WILD OILERS
    -Tough game. Both teams have rest. MIN is better than EDM.

    FRI, 19 APR 2013 OILERS AVALANCHE
    -EDM should beat COL in most instances now. Both teams rested.

    SUN, 21 APR 2013 DUCKS OILERS
    -ANA riding great PDO, mostly on SH%. Both teams rested.

    MON, 22 APR 2013 DUCKS OILERS
    -2 at home. Should win 1 min.

    WED, 24 APR 2013 BLACKHAWKS OILERS
    -Both teams rested. Book a loss, but EDM freaks out vs CHI often.

    FRI, 26 APR 2013 OILERS WILD
    -Both teams rested. Rarely win in MIN.

    SAT, 27 APR 2013 CANUCKS OILERS \
    -VAN rested, but may have nothing to play for.

  195. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide wrote: •Steve Tambellini kept several possible “mistake signings” for the summer–should he re-sign Khabibulin, Whitney or Jones that would be a huge error for this burgeoning team.

    This is the thing for me. I can easily see this happening over the summer. And using Smyth in too large a role next year. Then bringing in Klefbom to solve the D problem. And of course drafting a smallish forward with skill in the first round and coke machines the rest of the way.

    Lordy.

  196. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    So, what’s the verdict on Smithson’s first game?

    TOI: 9:54 (5v5 6:55; 5v4 .05; 4v5 2.54)
    FO: 7/9 = 78%
    even +/-
    He was on the ice for 3 of the 5 Oiler penalties and for 1 of the PP goals.
    1 blocked shot; 1 hit.

    any shot differential numbers?

  197. Woodguy says:

    Rest of DET’s games:

    2013-04-07 BLUES RED WINGS
    -Both teams rested. Should be close

    2013-04-11 SHARKS RED WINGS
    -Long layoff. Both teams rested, SJS the superior team.

    2013-04-12 RED WINGS BLACKHAWKS
    -CHI better, DET played nigh before. Book DET loss.

    2013-04-14 RED WINGS PREDATORS
    3rd in 4 for DET. Both had day off before

    2013-04-17 RED WINGS FLAMES
    -CAL awful

    2013-04-20 RED WINGS CANUCKS
    -VAN better, neither team plays night before

    2013-04-22 COYOTES RED WINGS
    -Both teams rested. DET better team.

    2013-04-24 KINGS RED WINGS
    -LAK plays night before in MIN. Bet on DET

    2013-04-25 PREDATORS RED WINGS
    -If they busted ass vs. LAK, NAS has a good chance.

    2013-04-27 RED WINGS STARS
    -DET should win this. Both teams rested.

  198. gogliano says:

    I thought they looked a little gassed for parts of this game–this was the 4th game in 5.5 days and they’ve had a decent amount of travel. Not a terrible effort but the better team won today.

    ANA is a winnable game–ANA will be playing their 4th game in 3 nights and Oil are all set up in Anaheim–and then they are facing 7/9 games at home. 14 points in 10 games puts them in the conversation (even 13 gives them a chance). 16 points should get them in and 17 is close to a lock.

    Obviously they need a great stretch here but this is one of their easiest 10 game blocks of the season.

  199. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    So, what’s the verdict on Smithson’s first game?

    TOI: 9:54 (5v5 6:55; 5v4 .05; 4v5 2.54)
    FO: 7/9 = 78%
    even +/-
    He was on the ice for 3 of the 5 Oiler penalties and for 1 of the PP goals.
    1 blocked shot; 1 hit.

    any shot differential numbers?

    Without context, this afternoon’s Corsi #’s

    http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20561

    Player Corsi+/-
    2 – D – PETRY, JEFF -4
    4 – L – HALL, TAYLOR -1
    5 – D – SMID, LADISLAV -7
    6 – D – WHITNEY, RYAN -12
    10 – C – HORCOFF, SHAWN -4
    13 – R – BROWN, MIKE -6
    14 – C – EBERLE, JORDAN 3
    15 – D – SCHULTZ, NICK 3
    19 – D – SCHULTZ, JUSTIN -2
    37 – C – PETRELL, LENNART -8
    40 – G – DUBNYK, DEVAN -17
    44 – D – POTTER, COREY -11
    52 – R – SMITHSON, JERRED -8
    64 – R – YAKUPOV, NAIL -9
    83 – R – HEMSKY, ALES -3
    89 – C – GAGNER, SAM -6
    91 – L – PAAJARVI, MAGNUS -5
    93 – C – NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 1
    94 – L – SMYTH, RYAN -6

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