OILERS AT WILD G47 (12-13) 26.4.13

Teemu Hartikainen has exhausted his entry level deal and come fall he will need to clear waivers in order to play in the minors. He will not clear waivers. Craig MacTavish once said about another big winger (Brad Winchester) “maybe he needs a second opinion” and that may be the case with Harski. The problem? The usual: offense.

DESJARDINS NHLE (OKC FORWARDS UNDER 23)

  1. Toni Rajala 13-21-34
  2. Teemu Hartikainen 11-17-28
  3. Phil Cornet 12-13-25
  4. Magnus Paajarvi 5-20-25
  5. Anton Lander 9-11-20
  6. Kristians Pelss 3-17-20
  7. Ryan Martindale 7-9-16
  8. Tyler Pitlick 4-8-12
  9. Curtis Hamilton 6-5-11

Hartikainen’s number (age 22) is an improvement over his NHLE at 20 (9-13-22) and 21 (10-12-22), but is it enough? We don’t hear about his foot speed being a huge negative now, but the whispers about not being gritty enough are turning into screams. I don’t buy it, he doesn’t lead with that but he can win battles and is strong enough to wear down opponents.

Hartikainen has played 52 NHL games and 164 AHL games since coming to North America and it’s been a process. Winchester played his first AHL game at 22, and the Oilers sent him away after 78 NHL and 181 AHL games. That final year of the entry level deal is go time, Hartikainen didn’t kill it and now we have some doubt. I think MacT and Krueger give him a full season and suspect Hartikainen will cover the bet.

We wait.

CORSL REL BLUE 12-13

corsirel blue

Schultz the elder, Corey Potter and Mark Fistric lead the hit parade, with the heart of the current defense (Schultz the younger, Petry and Smid) in red numbers. Whitney is off the chart, literally. Looking at this depth chart, I see 7 guys between 13.25 and 17.26 5×5 TOI and that’s not really a large gap. I know Chris Pronger isn’t coming, but the Oilers need to add a real defenseman to the Smid-Petry-JSchultz trio.

CORSI REL FORWARDS 12-13

corsirelfor

Read it and weep, ladies. The Chance Machine tops the charts and is followed by the 2 and 3 lines, none of which looks terrible compared to the rest of the group. The 4line is a mess but we know that.

Looking at this group, and understanding the struggles of the 2line (Gagner-Hemsky plus Paajarvi-Yakupov) is the middle section SO bad? I thought Smyth’s number (and Gagner’s number) would be worse by season’s end, and felt Hemsky’s total might be ghastly. It looks to me as though (please correct me if I’m wrong) that they aren’t doing so badly in a sea of heartbreak?

If Ales Hemsky is -1.3/CorsiRel then can we make a case that in a massive tidal wave of chaos and tomfoolery he was actually part of the solution? If we can make that case, then can we make it to a lesser extent for Smyth and Gagner?

Is that correct?

Edmonton is clear 5th now in the draft rankings, I think that might be their final spot–meaning one of these players will be available:

  1. Seth Jones
  2. Nathan MacKinnon
  3. Jonathan Drouin
  4. Sasha Barkov
  5. Sean Monahan

Oh those Oilers. If they win the lottery, I’ll bet you a 2-4 the league changes the rules on diving.

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244 Responses to "OILERS AT WILD G47 (12-13) 26.4.13"

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  1. striatic says:

    i’d go so far as to say if Edmonton is picking 6th, 7th or 8th they *need* to either trade up, or trade the pick and an asset for a current under 30 NHL 2nd line C.

    simply picking 8th at this point in the rebuild is near useless.

  2. BlacqueJacque says:

    Holy shit wtf is going on with this Potter vs the Wild sideshow?

  3. striatic says:

    Konopka should be suspended for that.

  4. Lucinius says:

    Took the refs long enough to call something on the Wild…

  5. rich says:

    Corey Potter, you can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

  6. jake70 says:

    Lol 5 on 3

  7. Lucinius says:

    striatic,

    The most worrying bit for me was Parise trying to kick Potter with his skate.

  8. Lucinius says:

    Christ. SHOOT.

  9. RickDeckard says:

    They need to get Yakupov the hat trick.

  10. jake70 says:

    Lucinius:
    striatic,

    The most worrying bit for me was Parise trying to kick Potter with his skate.

    And Parise has a problem with Potters crosscheck right after. Sure.

  11. Gerta Rauss says:

    striatic,

    I’m definitely shopping the pick but I’d hang on to it until it was our turn to pick and see who was available before I would make any deal.

  12. striatic says:

    btw, what’s up with Monahan’s +/-?

    season before this he’s 62GP 78PTS +25

    this season he’s 58GP 78PTS -18

    i’m assuming he’s playing tougher minutes with lesser team-mates but that’s quite a swing.

  13. BlacqueJacque says:

    We’re being outshot greater than 2:1.

    Even when we win, this team causes me great despair.

  14. jake70 says:

    Lucinius:
    Christ. SHOOT.

    Did I just hear Quinn say no shots on the 5 on 3?

  15. nelson88 says:

    striatic,

    The 67′s were one of the worst teams in the chl this year.

  16. Lucinius says:

    jake70,

    Yep. They were trying to set up the perfect goal. Got no shots.

  17. jake70 says:

    Lucinius:
    jake70,

    Yep. They were trying to set up the perfect goal. Got no shots.

    Don’t care what the score is, this is disturbing.

  18. Lucinius says:

    jake70,

    To be fair, Yak almost got his hat trick on a wide open net but he was damn near on the goal line near the boards on the one timer…

    The Oilers’ powerplay has suffered all year from the ‘perfect play’ syndrome. Its disgusting.

  19. hunter1909 says:

    jake70: Don’t care what the score is, this is disturbing.

    Only 60 minutes left and the torment’s over from another season of exciting Oiler’s hockey!

  20. striatic says:

    nelson88:
    striatic,

    The 67′s were one of the worst teams in the chl this year.

    i was vaguely aware of that, but i’d expect the +/- swings to be mostly elsewhere in the lineup unless Monahan had most of his line-mates graduate to pro hockey or something.

    i’d feel better about selecting Monahan with a better understanding of that stat. not that it disqualifies him. 78 points in 58 games is pretty damn impressive.

  21. Lucinius says:

    Oilers may be bad.. but god damn, the kids dancing in Oklahoma are horrendous.

    And god damn is the place empty.

  22. Gerta Rauss says:

    Chicago scores, up 3-1 with 12 min to go.

    Picking 7th is the likely outcome now.

  23. striatic says:

    Chicago up 2 goals on Calgary now.

    a Calgary loss would assure Oilers finish ahead of the Flames.

  24. Ribs says:

    I guess I missed it. What happened to Fistric?

  25. Woodguy says:

    striatic:
    btw, what’s up with Monahan’s +/-?

    season before this he’s 62GP 78PTS +25

    this season he’s 58GP 78PTS -18

    i’m assuming he’s playing tougher minutes with lesser team-mates but that’s quite a swing.

    67′s graduated everyone who mattered except Monahan.

    Rebuilding.

  26. Lucinius says:

    Barons lose the first game of their series, bah.

    Riley Nash gave Stretch a head butt and got away with it.

  27. sliderule says:

    The oil will try to move the pick but no one is going to give them a real player for magic beans.

    If Lindholm or Monahan are there I think they will take them and upgrade by squeezing rfas on teams with cap problems.

  28. fifthcartel says:

    We’ve locked in the 7th/6th pick, barring a magical lottery win.

  29. Woodguy says:

    striatic: i was vaguely aware of that, but i’d expect the +/- swings to be mostly elsewhere in the lineup unless Monahan had most of his line-mates graduate to pro hockey or something.

    i’d feel better about selecting Monahan with a better understanding of that stat. not that it disqualifies him. 78 points in 58 games is pretty damn impressive.

    Top 17 67′s via pts last year:

    Tyler Toffoli 100
    Shane Prince 90
    Sean Monahan 78
    Cody Ceci 60
    Steven Janes 36
    Mike Cazzola 36
    Jake Cardwell 36
    Marc Zanetti 28
    Tyler Graovac 27
    Dalton Smith 25
    Remy Giftopoulos 21
    Michal Cajkovsky 21
    Ryan Van Stralen 18
    Nick Foglia 17
    Ben Dubois 15
    Brett Gustavsen 15
    Taylor Fielding 11

    Top 17 67′s this year via pts:

    Sean Monahan 78
    Dante Salituro 40
    Cody Ceci 40
    Ryan Van Stralen 39
    Tyler Graovac 35
    Brett Gustavsen 35
    Michal Cajkovsky 34
    Remy Giftopoulos 27
    Steven Janes 27
    Joseph Blandisi 26
    Taylor Fielding 25
    Mike Vlajkov 16
    Jake Cardwell 16
    Brendan Bell 14
    Sergei Kuptsov 14

    No Toffoli, No Prince, Ceci traded to Owen Sound after 42 games, No Cazzola, No Cardwell, No Zanetti, Granovac traded to Belville after 30 games, No Smith, etc, etc.

    They gutted the team.

    Monahan the only one left from the top 10 in scoring from the year before.

  30. striatic says:

    Gerta Rauss: Picking 7th is the likely outcome now.

    short of an unlikely Carolina upset over Pittsburgh, yeah, seems like it. Even if the Oilers lose tomorrow.

    getting even Monahan seems unlikely, which sucks.

    top 4 are going to be Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov in some order.

    next 5 should be Monahan, Nichushkin, Lindholm, Nurse and Shinkaruk in some order.

    at 7th, the Oilers probably get to pick between Lindholm and Shinkaruk.

    how does Shinkaruk stack up versus Monahan? CSS has Shinkaruk listed as a C whereas Eliteprospects has him listed as a winger.

  31. striatic says:

    Woodguy: Monahan the only one left from the top 10 in scoring from the year before.

    wow. makes his performance even more impressive.

  32. sliderule says:

    The Swedish guys compare Lindholm to Forsberg.

    Gritty and protects the puck.

    Scored in SEL higher than all but one or two players since Forsberg in draft year.

    He is shorter than Monahan but about same weight .

    His scoring compares to Barkov as SEL is a stronger league and he is much better skater.

  33. justDOit says:

    MacT should really try to sign this Potter fellow. He’s fabbersham!

  34. bookje says:

    That is the worst win ever. A loss would have meant a 4th overall and win means a 7th overall. That is huge.

    HOWEVER!!!

    Had the Oiler been set to pick 4th and won the draft lottery, it would not have evoked the new ‘Oilers rule’ which was put in place by the league to allow any team in the bottom 14 to move up to the first round pick. With the Oilers picking 6th or 7th, the Oilers rule could come into play for the Oilers. As a result, the Laws of Irony almost assuredly guarantee an Oiler win in the draft lottery. This is further backed up by Murphy’s Law.

  35. oilersfan says:

    I am seriously pissed about this loss. The dropoff from barkov or monahan to anybody below the
    Is substantial. Its like in 2007 when the oilers won the last game of the season and went one point over chicago. Chicago wins the lottery and gets kane the oilers get gagner. The win felt good for an hour but it aint worth 10 years of gagner instead of kane. If the oilers still get monahan i will relax hut if this stupid freak game where we get outshot 2-1 and win anyway gives the flames monahan while we get nurse or shinkaruk i will be pissed for 12 years at least.

  36. striatic says:

    sliderule: Gritty and protects the puck.

    not as big as Monahan but bigger than Shinkaruk.

    it’ll be interesting to see how Shinkaruk and Lindholm perform at the combine. they seem very close.

    i’d like to know if Shinkaruk is really a C though?

  37. bookje says:

    So, unless Carolina gets one more point than the Oilers in the next game (oilers lose, Caroline ties for example), they are slotted to pick 7th.

    Their odds of picking first overall will be 4.7%
    Their odds of picking seventh overall will be 83.0%
    Their odds of picking eighth overall will be 12.3%

    If by chance Carolina gets a point against Pittsburgh and the Oilers lose (or Oilers get one point and Carolina wins) then:

    Their odds of picking first overall will be 6.2%
    Their odds of picking sixth overall will be 76.8%
    Their odds of picking seventh overall will be 17.0%

    Of course, as noted above, in reality, they have a 100.0% chance of winning the draft lottery because of it being so awesome if they did.

  38. G Money says:

    bookje:
    Had the Oiler been set to pick 4th and won the draft lottery, it would not have evoked the new ‘Oilers rule’ which was put in place by the league to allow any team in the bottom 14 to move up to the first round pick.With the Oilers picking 6th or 7th, the Oilers rule could come into play for the Oilers.As a result, the Laws of Irony almost assuredly guarantee an Oiler win in the draft lottery.This is further backed up by Murphy’s Law.

    My hope is that the Oilers have been too busy sucking to clean out HQ too carefully.

    Laws of Irony + Murphy + it being awesome + enough Tambellini residue = #1 pick fer sher

  39. bookje says:

    Yakupov tied for the Rookie scoring lead.

    If he has a big final game, he has to be in the Calder conversation.

  40. striatic says:

    oilersfan: The dropoff from barkov or monahan to anybody below the
    Is substantial.

    i am leaning this this point of view myself.

    i think that the oilers need to either move up the order – using the pick and an asset – or use the pick and an asset to land a young, legit NHL C for next year.

    just using the pick won’t accomplish enough soon enough to fit into the current timetable,

  41. Rondo says:

    As a fan you would like to see them lose, which gives them the best chance at a better player.

    As a player you want to compete and win. Unless you have a chance at Mario Lemieux.

    However sometimes you pick the better player because of your draft position by accident. Who know’s tthe 7th pick might be better than the 4th pick.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Cup Finalist, Regular Season Fenclose & Fentied
    Also Playoff 5v5 SH%, 5v5 SV% and PDO

    2012
    LAK beat NJD

    LAK:
    Fenclose 4th
    Fentied 3rd
    SV% .945 (2nd)
    SH% 9.3 (3rd)
    Playoff PDO 1038

    NJD:
    Fenclose 10th
    Fentied 9th
    SV% .938 (8th)
    SH% 7.8% (6th)
    Playoff PDO 1016

    2011 BOS beat VAN

    BOS:
    Fenclose 14th
    Fentied 16th
    SV% .948 (1st)
    SH% 10.4% (2nd)
    Playoff PDO 1052 (yowza)

    For all the talk of BOS pushing opponents out of the playoffs, running a 1052 PDO is also known as running hotter than the sun

    VAN:
    Fenclose 4th
    Fentied 4th
    SV% .929 (5th)
    SH% 5.7% (13th)
    PDO .986

    2010 CHI beats PHI

    CHI:
    Fenclose 2nd
    Fentied 3rd
    SV% .910 (8th)
    SH% 9.6% (5th)
    Playoff PDO 1006

    PHI
    Fenclose 12th
    Fentied 13th
    SV% .915 (6th)
    SH% 10.4% (3rd)
    Playoff PDO 1019

    2009 PIT beat DET

    PIT
    Fenclose 14th
    Fentied 18th
    SV% .913 (10th)
    SH% 9.2% (4th)
    Playoff PDO 1005

    DET
    Fenclose 1st
    Fentied 1st
    SV% .946 (2nd)
    SH% 8.1% (8th)
    Playoff PDO 1027

    2008 DET beat PIT

    DET
    Fenclose 1st
    Fentied 1st
    SV% .928 (4th)
    SH% 7.7% (8th)
    Playoff PDO 1005

    PIT
    Fenclose 27th (!)
    Fentied 27th (!)
    SV% .928 (2nd)
    SH% 9.6% (2nd)
    Playoff PDO 1024

    Looking at all of the above and PIT 08 really sticks out.

    I think that is one of the rare cases where skill can overcome being outshot, but a lot of luck has to happen as well.

    That year Crosby’s on ice shooting percentage was 12.17% and he was the only PIT player to post a positive straight corsi number

    PIT finished that year 4th in the NHL and had a goal differential of +31.

    The poor corsi numbers may be a reflection of score effects, they were ahead so much they got out shot a lot.

    Also, their talent level was pretty ridiculous.

    As a team they had a Shot Attempt percentage of 45.5%, but a Goal percentage of 53.7%.

    Some of that is luck, but some has to be talent.

    Compare that to this year’s PIT team:

    49.8% shot attempts and 58.7% Goals.

    That’s a nutty spread.

    Some luck in there….and talent.

  43. OilLeak says:

    Woodguy:
    Cup Finalist, Regular Season Fenclose &Fentied
    Also Playoff 5v5 SH%, 5v5 SV% and PDO

    2012
    LAK beat NJD

    LAK:
    Fenclose 4th
    Fentied 3rd
    SV% .945 (2nd)
    SH% 9.3 (3rd)
    Playoff PDO 1038

    NJD:
    Fenclose 10th
    Fentied 9th
    SV% .938 (8th)
    SH% 7.8% (6th)
    Playoff PDO 1016

    2011 BOS beat VAN

    BOS:
    Fenclose 14th
    Fentied 16th
    SV% .948 (1st)
    SH% 10.4% (2nd)
    Playoff PDO 1052 (yowza)

    For all the talk of BOS pushing opponents out of the playoffs, running a 1052 PDO is also known as running hotter than the sun

    VAN:
    Fenclose 4th
    Fentied 4th
    SV% .929 (5th)
    SH% 5.7% (13th)
    PDO .986

    2010CHI beats PHI

    CHI:
    Fenclose 2nd
    Fentied 3rd
    SV%.910 (8th)
    SH% 9.6% (5th)
    Playoff PDO 1006

    PHI
    Fenclose 12th
    Fentied 13th
    SV% .915 (6th)
    SH% 10.4% (3rd)
    Playoff PDO 1019

    2009 PIT beat DET

    PIT
    Fenclose 14th
    Fentied 18th
    SV% .913 (10th)
    SH% 9.2% (4th)
    Playoff PDO 1005

    DET
    Fenclose 1st
    Fentied 1st
    SV%.946 (2nd)
    SH% 8.1% (8th)
    Playoff PDO 1027

    2008 DET beat PIT

    DET
    Fenclose 1st
    Fentied 1st
    SV% .928 (4th)
    SH% 7.7% (8th)
    Playoff PDO 1005

    PIT
    Fenclose 27th (!)
    Fentied 27th (!)
    SV% .928 (2nd)
    SH% 9.6% (2nd)
    Playoff PDO1024

    Looking at all of the above and PIT 08 really sticks out.

    I think that is one of the rare cases where skill can overcome being outshot, but a lot of luck has to happen as well.

    That year Crosby’s on ice shooting percentage was 12.17% and he was the only PIT player to post a positive straight corsi number

    PIT finished that year 4th in the NHL and had a goal differential of +31.

    The poor corsi numbers may be a reflection of score effects, they were ahead so much they got out shot a lot.

    Also, their talent level was pretty ridiculous.

    As a team they had a Shot Attempt percentage of 45.5%, but a Goal percentage of 53.7%.

    Some of that is luck, but some has to be talent.

    Compare that to this year’s PIT team:

    49.8% shot attempts and 58.7% Goals.

    That’s a nutty spread.

    Some luck in there….and talent.

    How many clear wins does Pitt have this season? Score effects could account for some of the discrepancy.

  44. Cutbackboom says:

    One of Nichushkin, Lindholm or Monahan should still available at 7 and I’d be happy with any of those additions. Lindholm would seem to be the most ‘NHL ready’. Nichushkin would seem to be the biggest gamble from a boom/bust perspective.

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