OILERS AT WILD G47 (12-13) 26.4.13

Teemu Hartikainen has exhausted his entry level deal and come fall he will need to clear waivers in order to play in the minors. He will not clear waivers. Craig MacTavish once said about another big winger (Brad Winchester) “maybe he needs a second opinion” and that may be the case with Harski. The problem? The usual: offense.

DESJARDINS NHLE (OKC FORWARDS UNDER 23)

  1. Toni Rajala 13-21-34
  2. Teemu Hartikainen 11-17-28
  3. Phil Cornet 12-13-25
  4. Magnus Paajarvi 5-20-25
  5. Anton Lander 9-11-20
  6. Kristians Pelss 3-17-20
  7. Ryan Martindale 7-9-16
  8. Tyler Pitlick 4-8-12
  9. Curtis Hamilton 6-5-11

Hartikainen’s number (age 22) is an improvement over his NHLE at 20 (9-13-22) and 21 (10-12-22), but is it enough? We don’t hear about his foot speed being a huge negative now, but the whispers about not being gritty enough are turning into screams. I don’t buy it, he doesn’t lead with that but he can win battles and is strong enough to wear down opponents.

Hartikainen has played 52 NHL games and 164 AHL games since coming to North America and it’s been a process. Winchester played his first AHL game at 22, and the Oilers sent him away after 78 NHL and 181 AHL games. That final year of the entry level deal is go time, Hartikainen didn’t kill it and now we have some doubt. I think MacT and Krueger give him a full season and suspect Hartikainen will cover the bet.

We wait.

CORSL REL BLUE 12-13

corsirel blue

Schultz the elder, Corey Potter and Mark Fistric lead the hit parade, with the heart of the current defense (Schultz the younger, Petry and Smid) in red numbers. Whitney is off the chart, literally. Looking at this depth chart, I see 7 guys between 13.25 and 17.26 5×5 TOI and that’s not really a large gap. I know Chris Pronger isn’t coming, but the Oilers need to add a real defenseman to the Smid-Petry-JSchultz trio.

CORSI REL FORWARDS 12-13

corsirelfor

Read it and weep, ladies. The Chance Machine tops the charts and is followed by the 2 and 3 lines, none of which looks terrible compared to the rest of the group. The 4line is a mess but we know that.

Looking at this group, and understanding the struggles of the 2line (Gagner-Hemsky plus Paajarvi-Yakupov) is the middle section SO bad? I thought Smyth’s number (and Gagner’s number) would be worse by season’s end, and felt Hemsky’s total might be ghastly. It looks to me as though (please correct me if I’m wrong) that they aren’t doing so badly in a sea of heartbreak?

If Ales Hemsky is -1.3/CorsiRel then can we make a case that in a massive tidal wave of chaos and tomfoolery he was actually part of the solution? If we can make that case, then can we make it to a lesser extent for Smyth and Gagner?

Is that correct?

Edmonton is clear 5th now in the draft rankings, I think that might be their final spot–meaning one of these players will be available:

  1. Seth Jones
  2. Nathan MacKinnon
  3. Jonathan Drouin
  4. Sasha Barkov
  5. Sean Monahan

Oh those Oilers. If they win the lottery, I’ll bet you a 2-4 the league changes the rules on diving.

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244 Responses to "OILERS AT WILD G47 (12-13) 26.4.13"

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  1. Woodguy says:

    There is an unconfirmed rumour from a credible source on twitter that:

    AlessandroSerenRosso ‏@AlexSerenRosso 33m
    So, Nichushkin to Dynamo for 10 million dollars, 2 years contract with out-clause after 1 year, 2 millions per. #NHLEntryDraft

    If Nichushkin has an out clause after one year, it will increase his value in the draft.

    He’s probably top 3-4, maybe top 2, but the KHL contract will scare some teams (like the Oilers) off of him.

    Not confirmed at all, but an interesting development.

    Much more interesting than watching the Edmonton Oilers, and team in the NHL, play hockey.

    FYI Rosso is a Russian hockey journalist and I was altered to this tweet by Pronman, who vouches for Rosso.

    Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman 31m
    @IgorKleyner @alexserenrosso Alessandro’s usually money on this stuff.

  2. Woodguy says:

    Oh those Oilers. If they win the lottery, I’ll bet you a 2-4 the league changes the rules on diving.

    Did you mean “changes the rules on tanking?”

    Rommel has nothing on the Oilers when comes to tank battles.

  3. Lowetide says:

    WG: I don’t think they take the Russian (as my list suggests) but he looks like the real thing. 15 years from now we might be comparing his career to Frank Mahovlich. He’s got it all from what we’ve seen and read.

  4. Lowetide says:

    OH–and tanking is too nice a term. Diving is what they’re doing.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Also,

    I’d suggest using straight corsi just to show how awful this team is in term of getting out shot.

    Keeps you from seeing some terrible performances in too good a light using RelCol

    We all think the system hurt this year and Tyler has teased that he’s going to have a big post of it up soon, but we can’t fully ignore the results

    Straight Corsi

    TAYLORHALL 4.55
    JORDANEBERLE 3.5
    RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS 1.89
    TEEMUHARTIKAINEN -9.06
    SHAWNHORCOFF -11.59
    ALESHEMSKY -12.72
    MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON -13.22
    JERREDSMITHSON -13.88
    NAILYAKUPOV -13.93
    RYANJONES -14.04
    SAMGAGNER -15.31
    RYANSMYTH -15.57
    MIKEBROWN -21.87
    ERICBELANGER -26.81
    LENNARTPETRELL -27.91
    CHRISVANDEVELDE -27.96
    BENEAGER -35.33

    Outside of the top 3 (who perhaps were talented enough to overcome a bad system) the whole team stinks like limberger cheese in a warm hall closet.

  6. dulock says:

    I think the way to stop tanking is to give teams 5-9 better odds in the draft lottery than teams 1-4 (or take them out altogether). Teams 10-14 theoretically are in a playoff race and don’t need incentive not to tank. If being in the 5-9 spot means a better chance of being number 1, management would make moves to stay there.

    Personally, I don’t have an issue with tanking as all teams have equal chance to tank (although not necessarily the ability). Maybe that’s just me.

  7. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    OH–and tanking is too nice a term. Diving is what they’re doing.

    Tanking is superior nomenclature as it allows us to use Rommel references.

  8. Lowetide says:

    I think they should do something drastic, like if you pick 1st overall in one year you automatically go back to the end of the line for the following season. Using the Oilers:

    2010: 1st overall
    2011: 30th overall
    2012: 1st overall
    2013: 30th overall

  9. cc says:

    I read your profile on Mike Grier, over at OilerNation. Then I read this article and look at the Corsi numbers and think, man they could use that guy right now.

    They need Grier type of guys, not the Milan Lucic’s of the world.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Tanking is superior nomenclature as it allows us to use Rommel references.

    Well, there is that. Personally, I think the world needs more Manfred von Richthofen references

  11. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    I think they should do something drastic, like if you pick 1st overall in one year you automatically go back to the end of the line for the following season. Using the Oilers:

    2010: 1st overall
    2011: 30th overall
    2012: 1st overall
    2013: 30th overall

    That’s pretty drastic.

    I’d suggest something slightly less punitive like making their top pick the following year maximum 5th or something along those lines.

    Imagine where Atlantapeg or Lumbus would be if they didn’t get all those high picks!

    They wouldn’t be dominating the league like they are today!

  12. Woodguy says:

    Igor Kleyner ‏@IgorKleyner 21m
    Latest source in Nichushkin-gate: Val’s mom. Says son told her he is a Dinamo player now, and happened without his knowledge. (Radio Sport)

  13. justDOit says:

    Lowetide:
    I think they should do something drastic, like if you pick 1st overall in one year you automatically go back to the end of the line for the following season. Using the Oilers:

    2010: 1st overall
    2011: 30th overall
    2012: 1st overall
    2013: 30th overall

    Whoa – that’s a little harsh! Consider that this org (which I still ((sigh)) cheer for), might not be done dwelling with the spuds in the cellar for another year or so. Good idea though, but I would suggest if you get 1OA, then you go to the back of the non-playoff pack.

  14. justDOit says:

    Woodguy: Tanking is superior nomenclature as it allows us to use Rommel references.

    So does any conversation with the Hamburglar (rommel rommel rommel…).

  15. Woodguy says:

    I’m excited about this whole Nichushkin thing because one of the teams that draft ahead of EDM (assuming they don’t win the lottery) may take Nichushkin now and free up Barkov for EDM.

    I don’t talk much about the draft or draft picks as I don’t know enough about them, but based on the opinions of some smart people with good drafting knowledge track records, there is a big drop in talent after Barkov/Nichushkin and like LT, I *know* the Oilers won’t take Nichushkin, therefore want Barkov.

  16. Woodguy says:

    justDOit: So does any conversation with the Hamburglar (rommel rommel rommel…).

    Its is very early in the thread to declare a winner, but:

    Justdoit wins the thread.

  17. spoiler says:

    Wow… That’s a pretty damn fine season for Sgt. N. Schutz, covering the back of the young Flying Circus and coming out ahead. Perhaps he’s really the Red Baron and deserves the Blue Max for his efforts this year.

  18. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: Well, there is that. Personally, I think the world needs more Manfred von Richthofen references

    In the interests of the world then, does this annual ritual become known as the Oilers death spiral?

    Seriously, this team belongs in Phoenix. Every year they die in April, only to be reborn as the shining light of hope in October…

  19. M Parkatti says:

    I’d agree with WG — to get a sense of some of these players, you’ve got to look at the raw Corsi. This is an historically bad possession team, so being just below average on one of the worst teams we have data for doesn’t really mean a whole lot to me. The 2nd-4th lines have been an absolute disappointment, other than a nice possession run by MPS mid-way through, Yakupov’s fun flashes, and Gagner’s counting stats.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Here’s the Oiler D straight corsi:

    NICKSCHULTZ -7.24
    COREYPOTTER -9.03
    MARKFISTRIC -11.11
    JUSTINSCHULTZ -11.92
    JEFFPETRY -11.97
    LADISLAVSMID -12.93
    RYANWHITNEY -19.76

  21. rich says:

    To both LT and Woodguy:

    Great stuff on the REL Corsi and Straight Corsi. Combine that with all the shot differential info that’s been posted by Woodguy, along with Tyler Dellow’s work picking apart RK’s system (not so much the system but the team’s execution of it) and I would say MacT’s job this summer is going to be much tougher than a lot of us arm chair GM’s think.

    While I’m somewhat critical of the system the coach is playing – I do think he deserves time to fully implement it and the shorterned training camp and the lack of practice during the season didn’t help. But all those numbers do show that some players have gotten much worse much faster this year (Hemsky and Gagner especially) and it makes you wonder if:

    - The players really understand it?
    - The players really can execute it?
    - The system is too easy to beat as other teams have figured it out

    It could be a combo of all these things, but one thing about coaches in general is that with all the video that’s available today and the study that’s going on, people figure you out pretty quickly – and so you either better be able to out-execute (top line w/Hall and Nuge in the lineup can) or you better adjust – and I don’t think that RK has really made any changes, particularly in the losing streak.

    Admittedly, injuries don’t help, but these things were not working even in the winning streak, it was just a matter of time and the types of teams they’ve played before the percentages caught up with them as the underlying numbers show.

  22. Gret99zky says:

    LT wrote:

    -he can win battles and is strong enough to wear down opponents.

    -Read it and weep, ladies.

    -none of which looks terrible

    -is the middle section SO bad?

    -they aren’t doing so badly

    -he was actually part of the solution?

    -can we make it to a lesser extent for Smyth and Gagner?

    You’ve done it again LT. You’ve made me a believer. One thing about the Oilers is they make the players on their own team look good.

    Who do we play in the first round?

  23. sliderule says:

    If we lose out we will probably pick fourth as Tampa should beat Florida and move behind us in lottery.
    Good news if we want Barkov is Nichushkin scored three goals in u18 quarter final.He had been goaless to that point and might have fallen out of top five if he didn’t snap out of it.

  24. justDOit says:

    Jordan: In the interests of the world then, does this annual ritual become known as the Oilers death spiral?

    Seriously, this team belongs in Phoenix.Every year they die in April, only to be reborn as the shining light of hope in October…

    The Edmonton Phoenixes. I like…

  25. Woodguy says:

    Here’s Petry, Smid, Whitney and Potter’s straight Corsi from last year.

    I use those 4 because they were used in very similar roles last year and had full season with the Oilers both years (although gp varies, esp. w/ Whitney)

    JEFFPETRY -2.1
    COREYPOTTER -3.74
    LADISLAVSMID -5.6
    RYANWHITNEY -12.76

    Compare to this year:

    COREYPOTTER -9.03
    JEFFPETRY -11.97
    LADISLAVSMID -12.93
    RYANWHITNEY -19.76

    Net Change:

    Petry -9.87
    Smid -7.33
    Potter -5.29
    Whitney -7.00

    I think this points directly to a system change that didn’t work.

    These players (even Whitney) don’t fall off a cliff like that, all at the same time for no good reason.

    Freidman has something up about Van (& 30 thoughts today) that might be relevant:

    The second change the coaching staff made was asking forwards to play deeper in the defensive end than before. At their attacking best, the Canucks were known for “blowing the zone,” allowing forwards to break for offensive opportunities before the puck was cleared.

    That doesn’t happen as often. In an effort to defend some of the bigger lines and teams, the Canucks cover the points less in an effort to swarm the opposition down low. That’s improved defensive-zone coverage, but makes it harder to score.

    link: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opinion/2013/04/30-thoughts-canucks-discover-winning-ugly-is-beautiful-thing.html

    I’ve thought that RK was going for a system that was designed to win 5-4, not 2-1. More like the “old” Dys system.

    His use of the 4th line against other team’s 1st or 2nd speaks to that as I think he’s looking for a better match up for his 1st or 2nd line rather than try to “saw off”

    Problem is that it failed miserably.

    Not sure if they have the wrong players, wrong system, or just not enough time to teach it (or a portion of all 3), but it failed.

    If you remove 5v4 scoring to look at 5v5 systems, the Oilers are worse this year.

    They are worse in shot attempt differential and worse in goal differential.

    Shots
    This year:

    Shot For/60 26.9
    Shots Against/60 32.0
    Net -5.1/60

    Last year:

    Shots For/60 26.9
    Shots Against/60 30.2
    Net -3.3/60

    No change in shots for, worse in shots against this year.

    Goals

    This year:
    Goals For/60 2.0
    Goals Against/60 2.6
    Net -0.6/60

    Last year:
    Goals For 2.2/60
    Goals Against 2.5/60
    Net -0.3/60

    Worse again.

    SH% this year 7.5
    SH% last year 8.3

    SV% this year .919
    SV% last year .916

    A part of the GF drop can be attributed to SH%
    Goaltending is slightly better this year 5v5

    If RK’s system was designed to bring more offence, it failed.

    It think its failing starts in dzone coverage and passing lanes and just crumbles from there.

    4-93-14 together are enough to overcome the personnel and system deficiencies, but none one else is.

    Solution?

    Get more lottery picks!!

  26. Woodguy says:

    Also from Freidman’s piece:

    25. Finally, Edmonton is going to try and upgrade in goal. Devan Dubnyk’s held them in a lot more games than the Oilers deserve, but they don’t have much throughout the organization. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them chase guys who can help them in both the NHL and AHL.

    That makes more sense than trying to get a new 1G.

    They don’t really have 2G, 3G right now.

    A lot of 4G’s.

    Standard Oiler organizational depth during the Kevin Lowe era.

  27. rich says:

    @ Woodguy:

    Thanks for the further explanation not of the system – but the why of the system. In the last three games it has been especially clear RK has been deliberately putting the 4th line forwards (along with top line defenders) out against their opponents top lines – and the results have been brutal.

    Can certainly understand trying to get your scoring guys more favorable match-ups, but putting our 4th line out against the likes of Perry/Ryan and Getzlaf is like pitting the Soviet Army against a California Beach Patrol.

  28. Rondo says:

    Oilers could pick #1 at the best and #8 at the worst

  29. Kitchener says:

    Minn and Van both jockeying for position = good news for Oil draft position = maybe Montreal takes the pick for Galchenyuk

    … assuming we don’t win the lottery.

    Nick Schultz is absolutely part of the solution.

  30. sliderule says:

    The oilers defensive zone coverage is a mess.

    They use a man system that put the wingers up high to get to points faster but leaves the slot unguarded if wingers can’t adjust coverage to slot.That’s why you see our wingers spending a lot of time in no mans land between slot and point covering no one.

    The breakout they use often let’s wingers fly the zone looking for a stretch pass which if we turn it over leaves the oil outnumbered in own zone.

    The forechecking system they favor requires a lot of pinches by our D that if not executed properly end up with the other team getting odd man rushes and breakaways..

    The last few games the players have turned off the coaches and are playing the chaos system

    There is real oil change required here.

  31. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Woodguy,

    Looks like the Edmonton media would be right at home in Sochi:

    “while Nichushkin has shown next to no interest in stepping up his game — his body language says it all — McDavid has filled the void as the tournament’s top player to watch.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/story/2013/04/24/sp-connor-mcdavid-under-18-championship.html

  32. Woodguy says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Woodguy,

    Looks like the Edmonton media would be right at home in Sochi:

    “while Nichushkin has shown next to no interest in stepping up his game — his body language says it all — McDavid has filled the void as the tournament’s top player to watch.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/story/2013/04/24/sp-connor-mcdavid-under-18-championship.html

    Body Language!!

    Drink!!

  33. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Rondo,

    Yeah, But they’re expertise at tanking or lotteries will be needed.

    7th is still the most likely random outcome pre-lottery.

    7th: 38% 6th: 23% 5th: 11% 4th: 16% 3rd: 12% 2nd: 1%

    If they can lose out in regulation:

    5th: 8% 4th: 44% 3rd: 43% 2nd: 5%

  34. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    The oilers defensive zone coverage is a mess.

    They use a man system that put the wingers up high to get to points faster but leaves the slot unguarded if wingers can’t adjust coverage to slot.That’s why you see our wingers spending a lot of time in no mans land between slot and point covering no one.

    The breakout they use often let’s wingers fly the zone looking for a stretch pass which if we turn it over leaves the oil outnumbered in own zone.

    The forechecking system they favor requires a lot of pinches by our D that if not executed properly end up with the other team getting odd man rushes and breakaways..

    The last few games the players have turned off the coaches and are playing the chaos system

    There is real oil change required here.

    I think you outlined most of the salient points.

    Also on the D pinches, the F’s MUST be in position to cover and often they aren’t, hence the plethora of odd man rushes.

    On Oilers Now about a week back they had a post game interview with Shultz the Elder and he mentioned that MIN worked their system well and everyone was always in position.

    He then contrasted that Oiler’s F’s cheat for offence and fly the zone too early.

    I think the system is supposed to have the C low, one wing near the blue and one wing stretching the D in the neutral zone when the Oilers have possession in their own zone.

    Too often the C is near the blue and both wings are looping near the opposition blue forcing the Oiler’s D to either make a low percentage pass or bang it off the glass if they get out manned.

    Lack of possession progression from the dzone to the neutral zone to the ozone is readily apparent on every line that doesn’t have 4 hauling the puck around himself or 93 actually staying low for the 10ft pass option for the D.

  35. Doug McLachlan says:

    I would love the Oilers to get Barkov, but don’t see it happening. We aren’t going to finish low enough to do so and if Tambo left the magic tie in his office for MacT to wear, we probably take Jones.

    As for the whole tanking/diving issue, I saw a suggestion (perhaps on Oilers Nation) that you could avoid that risk by making the post-elimination games meaningful – forcing teams to win their draft position based on pts earned after elimination from the playoffs.

    Poor teams would still have the advantage, given that they were eliminated from playoff contention earlier and have more games with which to accumulate draft position pts, but the advantage is that teams will still have the incentive to win even when the playoffs are no longer achievable. The “risk” of course would be that truly awful teams will probably continue to be truly awful after elimination and won’t get the chance to improve from a high pick because they can’t win thier way into a better draft position. Anyone look at this idea before?

    I understand the KHL holds a draft position tournament for the non-playoff teams – which is actually an interesting idea as well.

  36. bookje says:

    With regards to the Draft Lottery.

    The goal of the draft lottery and the most recent change (removing the max shift upwards for the winner) does almost nothing to change the incentive for tanking. I presume that the league either is woefully ignorant about how incentive works or they just wanted to do something for optics.

    There are a few reasons it is useless. First, the worst team still has the best chance for 1st overall so the general incentive is the same, but the strength of that incentive is slightly reduced. Second, if you don’t win the draft lottery, you still get a great second prize which is much better than third, which is better than fourth, etc. Thus, nearly the same incentive to tank exists with or without the lottery. Take the Oilers this year. They are unlikely to finish 30th, however, they are still tanking. All of us are excited about the possibility of picking 3rd or 4th – why because its much better than picking 5th or 6th. So, the incentive is still there to tank.

    What I think they should do is create a weighted random system to place the bottom 14 teams (or bottom 10 as someone else suggested). Given the last place team 14 balls, the 2nd last place team 13 balls, … and the 14 last team (the team that just missed the playoffs) 1 ball. Start the machine up and start pulling balls. The first ball out of the machine gets the 1st overall. The second ball out of the machine gets the second pick overall, etc.

    This would greatly reduce the benefit of tanking (though not fully). To prevent tanking, the incentive for tanking (better draft opportunity) has to equal the incentive for not tanking (not looking like a pathetic team, influence on bringing in free agents, coach keeping his job, team moral, fan attitudes towards team, etc.). This would certainly bring it closer to that. The 30th place team would still have more than a 50% chance of getting a top 5 pick and a 90% chance of a top ten pick. The 14th last team would have a just under a 1% chance of getting first overall and a 10% chance of getting a top five pick.

    If those percentages are not the league’s liking, its easy to adjust, just change up the ball counts. The point is that the lottery should not just be for the first overall, but for ALL draft positions in the first round.

    Also, I wouldn’t actually use balls as it would be tedious to remove the extra balls from teams once they were selected, but it could be done using a computer or numerical method (as they do now for the draft lottery).

  37. bookje says:

    Woodguy,

    So, is the problem the coach’s system or the team not following it?

  38. slopitch says:

    I wonder if Mackinnon could somehow slip to us. Assuming FLA takes Jones, both COL and TBL are fairly set at the C position. It would be good we finished 4th.

    ISS has Nichushkin @ #2 followed by Mackinnon then Drouin. I bet Nichushkin slips. Like him though.

  39. Jordan says:

    Woodguy,

    Talking about the players refusing to play the system the coach has implemented really has me thinking back to when MacT left as coach. I seem to recall that being a part of the problem with his teams as well, no? Players choosing not to play the system and trying to do it their own way.

    If the team doesn’t execute the coach’s game plan how does the team react? You’d think they use ice time as a reward not only for playing well, but also executing, no?

    Almost makes me wonder if the problem in Edmonton isn’t the type of players, or the coach, but simply players who won’t play as a team, and execute the plan the coach puts forward.

    Maybe that’s why Toby Petersen was played so much by MacT – it wasn’t because he was a better option, but because he was executing the game plan, and was rewarded for it, and the impact was exacerbated because of the other players who were not executing the game plan weren’t players a coach could publicly call out (or wouldn’t or whatever). Hell, maybe part of him riding Pancakes so hard was because he couldn’t or didn’t ride the kids he really wanted to.

    Hindsight and all… but it really has me wondering… the only guy still here from that time is Gags… and it seems like the same problem. Me thinks that might not be a coincidence. I think I might have just talked myself onto the trade Gagner bandwagon.

  40. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    slopitch,

    If the Oil lose out in regulation then 3rd and 4th are almost equally likely pre-lottery

  41. HBomb says:

    Lowetide,

    Can’t remember if you personally are a country music guy (or if it was just your parents’ thing), but the world lost one of the patriarchs of said genre today.

    RIP George Jones

  42. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    “You’d think they use ice time as a reward not only for playing well, but also executing, no?”

    Jordan,

    Teams with depth already win four ways:

    - nowhere for opponents to hide their minus guys
    - more chances at a Pisani winning the play-tournament of small samples size
    - injury protection
    - better prep in the A

    But over and above those for a coach to get total buy-in building towards the play-offs nothing beats serious competition for ice time.

  43. HugThePost says:

    one would hope that MacT can see the chaotic mess in our D zone and perhaps take Kruger aside for a few suggestions. This system which allows for the wingers to fly out of the zone looking for the cherry picking passes will never work in the nhl; the players are too good. In the Beer Leagues, yes, but not the nhl.

    There is a reason no other team in the League plays this system:
    it is shit.

  44. justDOit says:

    HBomb:
    Lowetide,

    Can’t remember if you personally are a country music guy (or if it was just your parents’ thing), but the world lost one of the patriarchs of said genre today.

    RIP George Jones

    “He stopped lovin’ her today…”

  45. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    Woodguy,

    So, is the problem the coach’s system or the team not following it?

    Both I think.

    I think RK looked at this year as one to implement a new system (even without training camp) with the expectation that they would get better at it as the year went on.

    That hasn’t happened as far as I can tell.

    They may use “who bought in to the system and who didn’t” as a basis for player moves this summer.

    If that’s the case, goodbye Gagner.

    I’m not a hockey systems expert, but from what I know about RK’s up ice pressure forecheck and his jailbreak break-out is that it requires everyone to skate miles every game and to be in position.

    F’s need to cover for pinching D’s so when there’s a turn over they need to bust ass to get back, most lollygag too much (91 and 64 have been good getting back lately) and they don’t cover.

    I think the system is fine for a fast, skilled team (I’d like to see the forwards lower in the dzone and help out man the puck more), but without the commitment to being where they are supposed to be, especially on the back check, it falls apart.

    It also requires good passing D and the Oilers don’t have enough of those.

  46. Woodguy says:

    HBomb:
    Lowetide,

    Can’t remember if you personally are a country music guy (or if it was just your parents’ thing), but the world lost one of the patriarchs of said genre today.

    RIP George Jones

    The fact that he lived to 81 is unreal.

    Liver must have been made of a substance unknown to medical science.

  47. Jordan says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    You’ve got to think that all of this bullshit about the edmonton youth movement and whatnot is not in fact going to bring the lineup of high profile free agents that people seem to imagine:

    “Come play for the Oilers: All the cherry minutes go to talented kids who haven’t earned it, and you get to play the hard minutes that wear you down to nothing. All while playing for a team that doesn’t follow the coaches’ system, a president who’s only marketable skill is the claim to career success that came more than 20 years ago, and an owner who has no problem losing, as long as he makes money.”

    Go Columbus. Go Isles.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Jordan:
    Woodguy,

    Talking about the players refusing to play the system the coach has implemented really has me thinking back to when MacT left as coach.I seem to recall that being a part of the problem with his teams as well, no?Players choosing not to play the system and trying to do it their own way.

    If the team doesn’t execute the coach’s game plan how does the team react?You’d think they use ice time as a reward not only for playing well, but also executing, no?

    Almost makes me wonder if the problem in Edmonton isn’t the type of players, or the coach, but simply players who won’t play as a team, and execute the plan the coach puts forward.

    Maybe that’s why Toby Petersen was played so much by MacT – it wasn’t because he was a better option, but because he was executing the game plan, and was rewarded for it, and the impact was exacerbated because of the other players who were not executing the game plan weren’t players a coach could publicly call out (or wouldn’t or whatever).Hell, maybe part of him riding Pancakes so hard was because he couldn’t or didn’t ride the kids he really wanted to.

    Hindsight and all… but it really has me wondering… the only guy still here from that time is Gags… and it seems like the same problem.Me thinks that might not be a coincidence.I think I might have just talked myself onto the trade Gagner bandwagon.

    Ha!

    I responded to Bookje before reading your post and kind of came to the same conclusion.

    That’s one reason I want a vet 2C (like Grabbo, wish he was $1mm/yr cheaper).

    Everyone has to work the system for it to flourish.

    Need better players too.

  49. Ribs says:

    Lowetide:
    OH–and tanking is too nice a term. Diving is what they’re doing.

    Diving may be too delicate a term. This is more like a belly-flop from 50ft up.

  50. Jordan says:

    Woodguy: Both I think.
    I think the system is fine for a fast, skilled team (I’d like to see the forwards lower in the dzone and help out man the puck more), but without the commitment to being where they are supposed to be, especially on the back check, it falls apart.

    It also requires good passing D and the Oilers don’t have enough of those.

    As a theoretical team concept, that sounds like it would be grant hockey to watch.

    However…. can such a hockey team play in Edmonton and get fan support?

    Seems the neanderthal population might get a little restless if they were told that size and grit and truculence and poise and character and excalibur and dragons and magical princesses aren’t as important in a skill system.

  51. justDOit says:

    Woodguy: The fact that he lived to 81 is unreal.

    Liver must have been made of a substance unknown to medical science.

    According to a short doc on CBC2 about Jones’ big hit, ‘He Stopped Lovin Her’, it took him 18 months to record that song because of his ‘reduced capacities’ from booze and pain killers. Additionally, he didn’t even want to record the song because he thought it was too sad and depressing. It’s a good thing that he listened to his handlers, because his career was about in the toilet at that time and that song saved it.

    But despite being a little short on personal restraint and a lot short of actual talent, George’s knack for conveying emotion, sincerity and honesty in his songs is really what kept him around for so long. In an industry that is lacking these exact principles today (country music) and striving to be as auto-tuned and quantized as any pop star, George will be missed (or should be) by his modern day peers.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 13m
    #Oilers morning skate defence pairings are Smid-Petry, NSchultz-Potter and Fistric-JSchultz

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 15m
    #Oilers lines during morning skate in Minny: Paajarvi-Gagner-Eberle, Hall-Horcoff-Yakupov, Jones-Belanger-Lander, Smyth-Smithson-Brown

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 6m
    Khabibulin will play between the pipes tonight against the #mnwild while Dubnyk will get the nod tomorrow vs. #Canucks

    Nice to see them finally put The Younger on the 3rd pairing. Poor kid has been getting his head kicked in. That can’t be fun.

    Potter has put up reasonable possession numbers given his D partner and team that he plays for as well.

    The bottom 6 are not NHL quality.

    Last start for Khabby.

    Good bye Nic.

    Thanks for the help in getting 3 1st over all picks.

    Enjoy your retirement sir.

  53. ashley says:

    One plausible outcome for the glass half empty crowd is the Oilers winning one of their last 2 (probably against VAN), picking 6th, and having the Flames snatch up one of the coveted big centers that fell to them at pick 5. All of Barkov, MacKinnon and Monahan off the board at pick 6.

    That would hurt for a long time. I’m hoping for a Khabby start on the B2B.

    It’s surprising that they have fallen this far to even be talking about drafting one of these talented players.

  54. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 13m
    #Oilers morning skate defence pairings are Smid-Petry, NSchultz-Potter and Fistric-JSchultz

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 15m
    Paajarvi-Gagner-Eberle

    I have this funny feeling that the first line might disappear over the summer. I really hope whatever takes their places can skate like the wind and pass like Gretzky…

  55. cabbiesmacker says:

    HBomb:
    Lowetide,

    Can’t remember if you personally are a country music guy (or if it was just your parents’ thing), but the world lost one of the patriarchs of said genre today.

    RIP George Jones

    The funeral parlour’s formaldehyde budget shouldn’t take a kicking on this one.

  56. Peacecountry says:

    Hey I was wondering if anyone could point me in the right direction. I’m working on some analysis but I need to break the season up into 10 game segments. I seem to only be able to find data for the whole season and while I could manually find the data I’m looking for I’m thinking that it must exist somewhere.

    Anyone out there able to help me out?

  57. Hammers says:

    What I thought good coaches did was Not have a pre conceived plan but looked at the talent or lack off and came up with a system to fit the group . As woodguy said good/great players get by anyway .This then means a coach who has less talent ( ala McT in the old days ) adjust accordingly . I don’t think Krueger did that . It was his plan period .This in turn took the worst players and put them even lower ( Whitney , Belanger,Pettrell,Brown ) and the mid range group Petry , Smid Schult’s ,Gags ,Horc , Magnus who worked his system but didn’t execute it as needed . Surely management needs to discuss this with the coach .

  58. Gi JQE says:

    Maybe someone already has suggested this… but for draft why doesn’t the league just do it very simple:

    First team to be eliminated from playoff contention gets first pick
    Second team gets second… so on

    The draft rank does not change regardless of what a team does AFTER they are eliminated.

    Then top 16 are as per present rules. All this fancy stuff with points gained after elimination is complex and unnececcary. Teams tank AFTER they are eliminated from playoffs typically. Most team are trying up until they see they cannot get into post season…

    Although this would not encourage winning, it would at least stop the encouragement of LOSING!

  59. Ribs says:

    Woodguy: Nice to see them finally put The Younger on the 3rd pairing. Poor kid has been getting his head kicked in. That can’t be fun.

    Playing for nothing, you’d think they’d let him try to pad his stats a little. He sits 5 points behind the rookie leader right now.

    Woodguy: Hall-Horcoff-Yakupov

    At least they’re giving Yakupov a go at it. He’s 2 points behind Conacher and Huberdeau.

  60. bookje says:

    Gi JQE,

    That also doesn’t solve the problem of strategically tanking the entire season which also happens.

    The other problem is that teams are only mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs very late in the season. The Oilers, for example, were only eliminated a game or so ago, but were out of contention quite a while ago.

    Also, the ‘fancy points stuff’ is basically grade five math, so its not as though it is confusing or daunting or anything, so why get rid of it?

  61. bookje says:

    At least they’re giving Yakupov a go at it. He’s 2 points behind Conacher and Huberdeau.

    That’s exactly what they should be doing. I would love to see Yakupov win the scoring race.

    I have no illusions about him winning the Calder – he is an Oiler.

    If Justin Shultz were to have a 3 point night and come close to the Rookie lead, could he be a Calder possibility? He is a D-man who is close to the scoring lead – he should be.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Peacecountry:
    Hey I was wondering if anyone could point me in the right direction.I’m working on some analysis but I need to break the season up into 10 game segments.I seem to only be able to find data for the whole season and while I could manually find the data I’m looking for I’m thinking that it must exist somewhere.

    Anyone out there able to help me out?

    What kind of data are you looking for?

  63. Peacecountry says:

    Woodguy,

    Shots for/against
    Goals for/against
    pp%
    pk%
    shot/pp or per 60 min

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jordan:
    Woodguy,

    Talking about the players refusing to play the system the coach has implemented really has me thinking back to when MacT left as coach.I seem to recall that being a part of the problem with his teams as well, no?Players choosing not to play the system and trying to do it their own way.

    If the team doesn’t execute the coach’s game plan how does the team react?You’d think they use ice time as a reward not only for playing well, but also executing, no?

    Almost makes me wonder if the problem in Edmonton isn’t the type of players, or the coach, but simply players who won’t play as a team, and execute the plan the coach puts forward.

    Maybe that’s why Toby Petersen was played so much by MacT – it wasn’t because he was a better option, but because he was executing the game plan, and was rewarded for it, and the impact was exacerbated because of the other players who were not executing the game plan weren’t players a coach could publicly call out (or wouldn’t or whatever).Hell, maybe part of him riding Pancakes so hard was because he couldn’t or didn’t ride the kids he really wanted to.

    Hindsight and all… but it really has me wondering… the only guy still here from that time is Gags… and it seems like the same problem.Me thinks that might not be a coincidence.I think I might have just talked myself onto the trade Gagner bandwagon.

    This type of player revolt is becoming systemic in modern athletics, and I think it’s the reason you’re seeing RK play the 4th line so much the last couple games. Top line gets the mins if they produce AND play the system OR if they produce BUT don’t play the system. However, if they don’t produce or play the system, they ride the pine in favor of the dregs. It’s really the only message RK can send in the face of mutiny.

    I think the last couple decades have really demonstrated a shift in the behavioral patterns of athletes and their response to coaching. The taskmaster “my way or the highway” coach used to be the norm, but now what you see is that type of coach having a very short shelf life if they don’t generate immediate or sustainable results. Many orgs pinball between the two with a “a player’s coach” brought it in to get the buy-in across the dressing room and then replaced with the “taskmaster” once the culture gets too lax and entitled. Ken Hitchcock is a good example of a taskmaster who generates immediate results when players buy into his system, but gradually players become disenfranchised with either the role they’re given or the lack of autonomy within it and the unity crumbles.

    The cure to all of this of course is winning. Bill Belichik is the ultimate taskmaster but his teams win consistently and he has the unequivocal buy-in of his top player which is huge. I think the challenge for the Oilers and Krueger specifically is they have to get to a competitive tipping point quickly or the players lose confidence in the vision. Unfortunately, I think that’s already started to happen with the glow coming off Krueger’s rose for many players and that’s certainly understandable given that so many players are experiencing down seasons within his system. If he loses Taylor Hall at this point, he’s seriously effed.

    Incidentally, I don’t think this behavioral shift is confined to athletics alone. From a corporate management perspective, I’m quite amazed at the changes in professional staff demeanor over the last couple of decades. Things like experience, chain of command, and track record used to engender far more respect and it was much easier to keep teams unified as long as the results were there. Much more hand holding is required these days. The young executive of today is far more inclined to challenge leadership openly and often. To be fair, some of them are committing career suicide without even knowing it, but it is interesting how the definition of ‘wisdom’ is evolving in our society. Some believe because they have ready and immediate access to information, that trumps all, but as time and experience shows us all there is a vast gap between theory and effective application.

    That said, if Taylor Hall thinks they should fire Krueger and hire his former Windsor coach, that’s probably what’ll happen. lol

  65. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    Completely agree and would not rule out someone making a big splash to trade into a top 3 or 4 spot to take the big Russian….

    I find myself excited about the OIlers maybe scooping up Barkov…

    I am even optimistic about the quality that will be found in the 2nd round….assuming we don’t go off the board ….maybe even deal 2 – picks to move up in the 1st round -Lazar anyone?

  66. Woodguy says:

    Peacecountry:
    Woodguy,

    Shots for/against
    Goals for/against
    pp%
    pk%
    shot/pp or per 60 min

    I think you are going to have to get those manually.

    I know Vic’s scripts will run fenclose and corsi for a range, but not that info.

    When I’m trying to distill that kind of info I set up a spread sheet or two to mimic the NHL game sheet info then grind through it one game at a time.

    Boxscores for each game can be quickly accessed off the Oilers schedule.

    Have fun grinding!

  67. nelson88 says:

    bookje,

    Would be nice to see an Oiler finally win the Calder but if Schultz Jr wins it this year that is an absolute travesty.

    It might seem that I like to pick on the kid but that is not the case. He is in over his head and no doubt tired after a very long AHL/NHL season that he is not used to. I do think he will be a very good offensive D man but he is not even a mediocre NHL D man today. Unfortunately the flack others are taking, ex. N Schultz, due to the fanboy love of Jr. is not very productive for building a competitive team. As someone pointed out above N. Schultz is definitely part of the solution at least for the next couple of years.

  68. Amadeus says:

    Why not do this?

    All non-playoff teams have an equal chance at 1 overall.

  69. Peacecountry says:

    Woodguy,

    Ugh…. thats what I was afraid of! Thanks for the help WG. Its my first foray into an indepth statistical analysis and I think I may have bitting off more that I had bargained for!

    My objective is to determine what range of data is most is the best indicator of playoff success. We alwasy here that teams that are hot are likely to succeed going into the first round but that usually based off wins and losses and I personally don’t think that it is true. I was curious to see if the underlying values were more accurate. But doing all 16 teams for the past few years will be very time consuming!

    Thanks for the tip fpr the spreadsheet. Maybe once I get going I’ll see its not as bad as I’m imagining!

  70. bookje says:

    nelson88:
    bookje,

    Would be nice to see an Oiler finally win the Calder but if Schultz Jr wins it this year that is an absolute travesty.

    It might seem that I like to pick on the kid but that is not the case. He is in over his head and no doubt tired after a very long AHL/NHL season that he is not used to. I do think he will be a very good offensive D man but he is not even a mediocre NHL D man today. Unfortunately the flack others are taking, ex. N Schultz, due to the fanboy love of Jr. is not very productive for building a competitive team. As someone pointed out above N. Schultz is definitely part of the solution at least for the next couple of years.

    I like Nic schultz and agree that he is under-rated by most ‘fans’. However, I disagree with excluding him from the discussion of the Calder. Rookie defenseman is a very difficult position, particularly for an offensive defenseman. Most rookie defensemen are brought in and nicely sheltered throughout their first year of NHL level hockey – particularly those defensemen who are more offensively oriented. This did not happen for J.Schultz – he was played like a veteran. So, he suffered greatly in a defensive role.

    With that said, he has 23 points and is 5 points back of the rookie points leader. If he were to make up some ground there, he has a strong case for the Calder.

  71. bookje says:

    Amadeus:
    Why not do this?

    All non-playoff teams have an equal chance at 1 overall.

    That would eliminate the incentive for tanking, but would also significantly reduce the ability for poor teams to become competitive again. THe NHL wants teams to move from being competative to being crappy and to cycle in and out of that so that every marketplace has some positive memories which helps to sell tickets
    .

  72. Woodguy says:

    Hammers:
    What I thought good coaches did was Not have a pre conceived plan but looked at the talent or lack off and came up with a system to fit the group . As woodguy said good/great players get by anyway .This then means a coach who has less talent ( ala McT in the old days ) adjust accordingly . I don’t think Krueger did that . It was his plan period .This in turn took the worst players and put them even lower ( Whitney , Belanger,Pettrell,Brown ) and the mid range group Petry , Smid Schult’s ,Gags ,Horc , Magnus who worked his system but didn’t execute it as needed . Surely management needs to discuss this with the coach .

    This is a good point.

    Was RK’s system what a smart coach should have implemented?

  73. G Money says:

    Woodguy:
    Here’s Petry, Smid, Whitney and Potter’s straight Corsi from last year.

    I use those 4 because they were used in very similar roles last year and had full season with the Oilers both years (although gp varies, esp. w/ Whitney)

    JEFFPETRY-2.1
    COREYPOTTER-3.74
    LADISLAVSMID-5.6
    RYANWHITNEY-12.76

    Compare to this year:

    COREYPOTTER-9.03
    JEFFPETRY-11.97
    LADISLAVSMID-12.93
    RYANWHITNEY-19.76

    Net Change:

    Petry -9.87
    Smid -7.33
    Potter -5.29
    Whitney -7.00

    I think this points directly to a system change that didn’t work.

    I’ve been posting this data repeatedly for the last few weeks as support for my “it’s the system” stance.

    You showed these numbers for the forwards, and you can do the same year-on-year comparison there as well. You will generally see exactly the same sort of drop-off-a-cliff effect for most of the forwards (Gagner and Hemsky deserving special mention).

    The other number I’ve posted for comparison is this Corsi number from last year:

    Alex Plante -7.63

    In other words, EVERY ONE OF OUR DEFENDERS this year is either as bad or worse than Alex Plante last year.

    That is not the players – that is the system.

    The main point I’ve been trying to make is not that the team is really actually good and the system is shitty, in fact, even with a good system the team would not be anywhere near contending. But it definitely wouldn’t stink so bad.

    It also seems clear to me that bringing in other personnel, whether D or 3/4 forwards WON’T HELP US, because if the system is broken, it’s broken.

    In another post, your comment on the system is that:

    I’m not a hockey systems expert, but from what I know about RK’s up ice pressure forecheck and his jailbreak break-out is that it requires everyone to skate miles every game and to be in position.

    This also is a pretty strong indictment of the system. In a year where the schedule is super-compressed and fatigue is a huge factor in every game, a system that requires everyone to skate miles is problematic to say the least. It might also explain why in the second of back-to-backs, the Oilers always look more fatigued than other teams on the tail end of a b-2-b. The other element, which is that every player must be in position – again, highly problematic for a team packed with young players and rookies, and in a season where practice time is minimal.

  74. godot10 says:

    If a league has a hard salary cap, a rookie salary cap, and a hard 50-contract limit, one has absolutely no need for an entry draft. The simplest and easiest solution is just get rid of the entry draft. It is completely unnecessary.

    Problem solved.

  75. Woodguy says:

    Peacecountry,

    My objective is to determine what range of data is most is the best indicator of playoff success. We alwasy here that teams that are hot are likely to succeed going into the first round but that usually based off wins and losses and I personally don’t think that it is true. I was curious to see if the underlying values were more accurate. But doing all 16 teams for the past few years will be very time consuming!
    Thanks for the tip fpr the spreadsheet. Maybe once I get going I’ll see its not as bad as I’m imagining!

    I’ll save you the time.

    People have looked at this.

    “hot team” effect doesn’t exist.

    Best results over the year trumps all.

    I like to look at the last 25 games in terms of fenclose to make sure that any injury or player addition didn’t radically change the results.

    Fen tied (see here: http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2012.php?sort=6&section=close), fen close and goal differential are the best indicators of future success.

  76. Peacecountry says:

    godot10,

    Wow….. never thought of it like that , and I cannot believe I’m saying this, you may be absolutley right.

  77. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    Peacecountry,

    My objective is to determine what range of data is most is the best indicator of playoff success. We alwasy here that teams that are hot are likely to succeed going into the first round but that usually based off wins and losses and I personally don’t think that it is true. I was curious to see if the underlying values were more accurate. But doing all 16 teams for the past few years will be very time consuming!
    Thanks for the tip fpr the spreadsheet. Maybe once I get going I’ll see its not as bad as I’m imagining!

    I’ll save you the time.

    People have looked at this.

    “hot team” effect doesn’t exist.

    Best results over the year trumps all.

    I like to look at the last 25 games in terms of fenclose to make sure that any injury or player addition didn’t radically change the results.

    Fen tied (see here:http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2012.php?sort=6&section=close), fen close and goal differential are the best indicators of future success.

    An example this year.

    I looked at WAS fenclose since Backstrom-Ovi were put back together to see if it changed the dynamic of the team.

    Answer was no.

    They still only get about 46% of the shot attempts through in any given game, they are just running really hot.

    This doesn’t mean that the superior fen team will always win (see MTL over WAS when Halak was in MTL and running about .980), but over time they will win more than they lose.

    I think I remember reading that every team that has made the SCF in the last 6 years had a top 5 fen-tied over the year.

    Not positive about if I’m remembering it clearly, but it was something like that.

  78. G Money says:

    godot10:
    If a league has a hard salary cap, a rookie salary cap, and a hard 50-contract limit, one has absolutely no need for an entry draft.The simplest and easiest solution is just get rid of the entry draft.It is completely unnecessary.

    Problem solved.

    Actually, the other thing you would need is an end to guaranteed contracts.

    Good luck getting that pushed through the NHLPA… in other words, the entry draft is here to stay.

  79. justDOit says:

    Woodguy,

    The Kings had a strong turn around last season, after getting Carter and hiring Sutter to coach. They must have bucked the stats by winning the Cup, no?

  80. bookje says:

    godot10:
    If a league has a hard salary cap, a rookie salary cap, and a hard 50-contract limit, one has absolutely no need for an entry draft.The simplest and easiest solution is just get rid of the entry draft.It is completely unnecessary.

    Problem solved.

    I disagree, this would result in teams with a recent history of winning being highly favoured by incoming rookies. These rookies would be willing to pay for such teams at a lower rate than they would be willing to play for crappy teams. This ‘discounted’ rate for rookies would make the teams more attractive as they would be more competitive at a lower cost. Free agents would also likely give these teams a discount (this already happens). Thus you would end up with a situation where good teams remain dominant and crappy teams are never able to improve.

  81. LMHF#1 says:

    I’d love to see an NHL team play Daum/Thurston’s UofA system. Even if it were just for 10 games to try it. Such an aggressive system and perfect for a talented team that needs to open up games.

  82. bookje says:

    godot10:
    If a league has a hard salary cap, a rookie salary cap, and a hard 50-contract limit, one has absolutely no need for an entry draft.The simplest and easiest solution is just get rid of the entry draft.It is completely unnecessary.

    Problem solved.

    Following up on my previous comment, I would suggest your approach could work IF the league managed all contracts and negotiations were limited to ‘highest bidder’.

  83. FastOil says:

    godot10:
    If a league has a hard salary cap, a rookie salary cap, and a hard 50-contract limit, one has absolutely no need for an entry draft.The simplest and easiest solution is just get rid of the entry draft.It is completely unnecessary.

    Problem solved.

    True but small markets and cold cities may find it hard to sign the better players. I like that rookies have to pay dues to be in the league.

  84. speeds says:

    I don’t really understand why there’s so much talk about changing the draft rules as it relates to a team picking #1 a number of times in a row. Each season’s draft relates to the season preceding it, the draft pick is a way to help the weaker teams improve based on how poor they were that season. Yes, the Oilers have been a weak team for a while, that doesn’t mean they weren’t a subpar team again this season.

  85. speeds says:

    godot10:
    If a league has a hard salary cap, a rookie salary cap, and a hard 50-contract limit, one has absolutely no need for an entry draft.The simplest and easiest solution is just get rid of the entry draft.It is completely unnecessary.

    Problem solved.

    The problem is that the ELC cap distorts decision making when compared to no cap. If teams were allowed to offer as much money as they wanted to rookies, and perhaps more importantly one way contracts, maybe that works? That potentially introduces other problems, and perhaps one would argue those problems are bigger than the problems they try to correct but, with a cap, if teams choose to spend a bunch of money on unproven 18 year olds, perhaps that should be their choice?

  86. Lewis Grant says:

    Re: altering the draft to discourage tanking

    Colby Cosh reported on the best system I’ve yet heard. The #1 pick goes to whichever team gets the most wins in the period after they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. It’s fair, because the worst team gets the most opportunities to win, because they are eliminated first. But from there on, their incentive is to win, not to lose.

    http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/03/04/the-nhl-should-help-those-who-help-themselves/

    What can we do to get Cosh to write more about hockey again? (And how about the Covered in Oil guys, while we’re at it)?

  87. cabbiesmacker says:

    Glad Hartikainen is headed back to OKC to help the rest of their season. He hasn’t shown nearly enough at the NHL level for anyone to surmise he can be a longterm contributor.

    I was really disappointed in him against Anaheim and for the most part his entire year. For a decent sized guy he sure is reluctant to use it, and I agree with the pundits when they said he got smaller after the Beauchemin thump. Invisible might be a better word.

    This team doesn’t need that type of player whatsoever. We don’t see it from Hall, even Gagner, and incredulously RNH. Ice players that have some pushback and some try. Not the fold your tent types like Hartikainen looks to be right now.

    It’d be really nice to see just one of the larger bodies drafted by MBS play like a larger guy.

  88. Beaker says:

    I dont see how the calder doesnt go to Conacher or Saad

    If Yak get a few more points and wins the scoring race he should at least get a nomination

    1. Conacher
    2. Saad (could be #1 depending on how you argue)
    3. Yak (if he wins the scoring race)
    4. Huberdeau (if yak doesnt then he moves up to #3)
    5. Schultz? Maybe? I dont know who else is out there that might be above him.

  89. Beaker says:

    Lewis Grant:
    Re: altering the draft to discourage tanking

    Colby Cosh reported on the best system I’ve yet heard.The #1 pick goes to whichever team gets the most wins in the period after they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.It’s fair, because the worst team gets the most opportunities to win, because they are eliminated first.But from there on, their incentive is to win, not to lose.

    http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/03/04/the-nhl-should-help-those-who-help-themselves/

    What can we do to get Cosh to write more about hockey again?(And how about the Covered in Oil guys, while we’re at it)?

    I think this idea came from an analytics group a year or two ago? Willis was talking about this last year.

  90. godot10 says:

    G Money: Actually, the other thing you would need is an end to guaranteed contracts.

    Good luck getting that pushed through the NHLPA… in other words, the entry draft is here to stay.

    No. Eliminating guarenteed contracts would be to the advantage of favoured markets, at the expense of unfavored markets. If a favoured market signs a player to a dumb contract in terms of salary, or duration, or whatever, they should be stuck with it.

    A hard salary cap, a rookie salary cap, and a number of contract limit guarentees an equitable distribution of players. UFA status on expiry of every contract.

  91. Mr DeBakey says:

    Maybe that’s why Toby Petersen was played so much by MacT

    Here comes the old guy to do my offa my lawn shtick once again.

    One painful side effect of MacT’s elevation is the re-emergence of the Tale of Toby.
    Here’s the 5v5 minutes for Oiler forwards from that year:
    HORCOFF 1049.2
    TORRES 984.3
    LUPUL 974.5
    SYKORA 943.7
    PISANI 915.5
    HEMSKY 756.0
    REASONER 700.1
    SMYTH 675.4
    THORESEN 636.4
    PETERSEN 620.6
    STOLL 514.8
    POULIOT 490.6
    WINCHESTER 428.1
    JACQUES 286.4
    NEDVED 196.5
    STORTINI 192.6
    BRODZIAK 81.2
    MOREAU 75.1
    NILSSON 52.2
    MIKHNOV 11.9
    SCHREMP 9.5

    Toby slides in at 10th spot.
    Tenth.
    Most of those minutes earned after Stoll was concussed.
    Toby was not re-signed by the Oilers.
    He signed & played with the Stars.

    The Tale of Toby was Written & Distributed by the very vocal fans of the guy with 9.5 minutes.

  92. Woodguy says:

    justDOit:
    Woodguy,

    The Kings had a strong turn around last season, after getting Carter and hiring Sutter to coach. They must have bucked the stats by winning the Cup, no?

    Nope.

    LAK was 4th in fenclose last year

    http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2011.php?sort=6&section=close

    They were also 3rd in fen-tied

    They had a very, very low SH% all year.

    More than a few punters made $ on them.

  93. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy:
    Peacecountry,

    My objective is to determine what range of data is most is the best indicator of playoff success. We alwasy here that teams that are hot are likely to succeed going into the first round but that usually based off wins and losses and I personally don’t think that it is true. I was curious to see if the underlying values were more accurate. But doing all 16 teams for the past few years will be very time consuming!
    Thanks for the tip fpr the spreadsheet. Maybe once I get going I’ll see its not as bad as I’m imagining!

    I’ll save you the time.

    People have looked at this.

    “hot team” effect doesn’t exist.

    Best results over the year trumps all.

    I like to look at the last 25 games in terms of fenclose to make sure that any injury or player addition didn’t radically change the results.

    Fen tied (see here:http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2012.php?sort=6&section=close), fen close and goal differential are the best indicators of future success.

    Teams often make significant roster alterations at the trade deadline.

    Wouldn’t that skew your results?

    Also, teams often get back injured players for the playoffs (see Kesler, Bieksa, Tanev) altering the teams chemistry and game plans.

    I would think that, overall, the old adage that “just get in” is likely pretty close to true since there is so much chaos involved.

  94. bookje says:

    Lewis Grant,

    The Oilers were eliminated with 4 games remaining on the season. The same is true with most teams. The reality is that mathematical elimination takes place too late for this to be of any value.

  95. bookje says:

    speeds:
    I don’t really understand why there’s so much talk about changing the draft rules as it relates to a team picking #1 a number of times in a row.Each season’s draft relates to the season preceding it, the draft pick is a way to help the weaker teams improve based on how poor they were that season.Yes, the Oilers have been a weak team for a while, that doesn’t mean they weren’t a subpar team again this season.

    If teams always ‘tried their hardest’ this would be great, but it creates a situation where teams intentionally lose games. This distorts the system and creates situations where teams trying to compete to win are playing teams trying to lose which is problematic near the end of the season.

  96. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Unfortunate that boxscores dominate the Calder when either watching or counting more of what happens on the ice fill out the picture.

    e.g. shot %. looks like someone is snakebit in Ottawa.

    Beaker,

    Jakob Silfverberg 125 shots (1st) 10 goals (8%)
    Brendan Gallagher 113 shots (2nd) 14 goals (12.4%)
    Jonathan Huberdeau 112 shots (3rd) 14 goals (12.5%)
    Brandon Saad 95 shots (4th) 10 goals ( 10.5%)
    Drew Shore 95 shots (5th) 3 goals (3.2%)
    Justin Shultz 81 shots (8th) 7 goals (8.6%)
    Nail Yakupov 71 shots (16th) 12 goals (16.9%)

  97. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    deleted

  98. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    bookje,
    Lewis Grant,

    I like games remaining at elimination date as the first order separator. If a whole bunch of teams tie on that then break the tie with the old system.

  99. bookje says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    This solves the problem of tanking for the last 4-6 games of the season, what about for games 40-76 of the season?

    The race to the bottom just gets pushed up earlier I think.

    I suspect that there would be no difference in the draft order using this approach.

  100. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Minnesota should Beat EDM tonight COL could easily beat PHO and Tampa should beat florida.
    That means MIN eliminates CLB which means Nashville needs one point and they are playing CLB which just got eliminated and COL plays MIN which will be safely in the playoffs. Edmonton could end
    up in the 2 hole at the draft! Hey do we know how to tank or what. :)

  101. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy: Nope.

    LAK was 4th in fenclose last year

    http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2011.php?sort=6&section=close

    They were also 3rd in fen-tied

    They had a very, very low SH% all year.

    More than a few punters made $ on them.

    It also helped that Quick went superman and posted a .946 SP vs his reg. season .929.

    Not that .929 is too damn horrible

  102. cabbiesmacker says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Unfortunate that boxscores dominate the Calder when either watching or counting more of what happens on the ice fill out the picture.

    e.g. shot %. looks like someone is snakebit in Ottawa.

    Beaker,

    Jakob Silfverberg125 shots (1st) 10 goals (8%)
    Brendan Gallagher113 shots(2nd)14 goals (12.4%)
    Jonathan Huberdeau 112 shots (3rd) 14 goals(12.5%)
    Brandon Saad95 shots(4th) 10 goals (10.5%)
    Drew Shore 95 shots (5th)3 goals (3.2%)
    Justin Shultz 81 shots (8th) 7 goals (8.6%)
    Nail Yakupov71 shots(16th) 12 goals (16.9%)

    He isn’t in the running anyways. It’s between Gallagher and Huberdeau I’d venture.

  103. cabbiesmacker says:

    bookje: If teams always ‘tried their hardest’ this would be great, but it creates a situation where teams intentionally lose games.This distorts the system and creates situations where teams trying to compete to win are playing teams trying to lose which is problematic near the end of the season.

    The simple solution would be to just award the pick to whichever team posts the most regular season major penalties. The fans get more entertainment that way.

    It is the way it is because it adds a day of attention for the NHL. Knowing who gets the pick with a week left in the season? Major snoozefest.

    Does anyone watch the NBA or MBL drafts? Are they even televised?

    Tankjobs rule. If you want to punt some of your best players to do so at the trade deadline, another NHL attention day, hair on ya.

  104. G Money says:

    godot10: No.Eliminating guarenteed contracts would be to the advantage of favoured markets, at the expense of unfavored markets.If a favoured market signs a player to a dumb contract in terms of salary, or duration, or whatever, they should be stuck with it.

    A hard salary cap, a rookie salary cap, and a number of contract limit guarentees an equitable distribution of players.UFA status on expiry of every contract.

    Sorry, but no.

    Everything you’re describing is basically true NOW (hard salary cap, rookie salary limits, 50 contract limt) and yet the draft is more important than ever.

    The idea that non-guaranteed contracts disfavours big-market teams is only true at the moment as we transition from a “fake” cap (where the cap was easily circumvented by big-money teams through signing front-loaded long-tail contracts) to a real cap.

    Once the real cap is in effect, no team, favoured market or not, can easily sign a big money contract because they still have to deal with the cap issues in year. Where the system gets hamstrung is the non-perfomers and the low-performers. If you have a lot of those, the only way to reboot is through the draft. You can do away with the draft if you can prune the bad contracts. Otherwise, the draft remains critical.

  105. Beaker says:

    cabbiesmacker: He isn’t in the running anyways. It’s between Gallagher and Huberdeau I’d venture.

    Missed Gallagher – He’d definitely be up there for sure. The rest though? I would think more than just shots/goals/Shooting % would be taken into account though. Points, +/-, TOI totals, linemates and such.

    I dont think Yak has a shot to win the thing, not even close really. But I do think he has a chance to get nominated (slim but hes got a shot) Schultz shouldnt even be considered unless he scores 6 points in his last two games)

    Imagine Yak on a team that didnt blow this badly.

  106. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    bookje,

    How much does including or not including the Bettman point change things? The whole point of tie breakers is to put the most important ones at the top.

    For the last week of the season we’d do a real favour to bubble teams by not rewarding teams that dive below a team that was eliminated earlier (like the Oilers might in their dive for the 3rd lottery ticket)

  107. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Beaker,

    Agreed. Just threw out shots as one example of what Calder point mania misses. But since Schultz has more shots that Yakupov gotta lean to everything else the D-man brings.

  108. Beaker says:

    bookje,

    Over an 82 game schedule it makes much more sense.

  109. Beaker says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴:
    Beaker,

    Agreed. Just threw out shots as one example of what Calder point mania misses. But since Schultz has more shots that Yakupov gotta lean to everything else the D-man brings.

    The problem is Schultz brings his -19 with him. Granted, much more icetime.

  110. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Beaker,

    More icetime and less protected icetime. And even shots understate a D-man’s contribution to offense. If you do shot differentials on ice/60 Yak is miles behind Shultz in their rookie years.

  111. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    OH–and tanking is too nice a term. Diving is what they’re doing.

    Some may say they’re playing to their ability. I don’t know. Either way, they’re awfully good at losing down the stretch.

    It is a wonder when Calgary can go 6-4-0 with 7 AHL’ers for part of that stretch and McGrattan playing on the 3rd line.

  112. Woodguy says:

    cabbiesmacker: It also helped that Quick went superman and posted a .946 SP vs his reg. season .929.

    Not that .929 is too damn horrible

    If it weren’t for Quick, they may not have made the playoffs.

    Their SH% normalized and Quick played out of his head and they walked to the cup.

    Hot goalies can trump all though.

    Especially in the playoffs. See Halak dragging a mediocre MTL team to the CF.

  113. Beaker says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    Whats their PP time like though too? By eye I’d say Schultz had much more but that could be an illusion.

  114. Ryan says:

    What I honestly think is that the Oilers aren’t intentionally tanking per say.

    What I do remember about playing hockey growing up is probably not much.

    However, what I do remember is what it felt like playing on a team that was well-balanced and competitive vs. one season (my 3rd last) on a team that was truly terrible.

    The last few years that I played hockey were on pretty good teams. I can remember that that as a team we knew we heading into any game that we we’re more likely to win than not. Against easier teams, we could coast to that win… Against average teams, if we put in an honest effort to win, we usually did. Against the top teams in the league, we had to play hard to win, but we knew that if we did play hard, we had a very good chance of winning.

    In contrast, the one season that I played on a team that was out-matched against every team in the league, the experience was much different.

    We basically knew that we had to play lights out and get some bounces to get a win against pretty much anyone.

    We knew if we coasted, we would get lit up… If we put in an average effort, the loss was a guarantee.

    It was pretty hard to motivate yourself when you knew that if you played lights out as a team (and got the bounces), you might have a small chance of winning.

    The Oilers are that team (minus RNH / Hemsky which only makes it worse). The team that has to play lights out to have a chance to win. Other than Colorado and strangely enough, the Hawks, the Oilers don’t roll over anyone.

    Ryan: Some may say they’re playing to their ability.I don’t know.Either way, they’re awfully good at losing down the stretch.

    It is a wonder when Calgary can go 6-4-0 with 7 AHL’ers for part of that stretch and McGrattan playing on the 3rd line.

  115. RMGS says:

    Woodguy: I think you are going to have to get those manually.

    I know Vic’s scripts will run fenclose and corsi for a range, but not that info.

    When I’m trying to distill that kind of info I set up a spread sheet or two to mimic the NHL game sheet info then grind through it one game at a time.

    Boxscores for each game can be quickly accessed off the Oilers schedule.

    Have fun grinding!

    Gabe Desjardins has said he will make available the raw data through BTN some time after the season’s end to play around with in Excel. Apparently he used to make them available during the season, but they kept crashing his site.

  116. stevezie says:

    As far as the Calder goes, when you take a quick glance at the rookie stats (which I cynically think is all most voters do) the two clear outlying stats are Schultz’s TOI and Schultz and Yak’s +/-. With points everyone is close, and Schultz is a defenceman with notoriety.

    My money has him nominated (Yak’s only hope is to win the scoring race).

    also: http://www.theonion.com/articles/liver-flees-george-jones-body,4505/
    Goodbye, legend.

  117. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    LT I was just wondering what makes you so sure Harty is a sure thing to get claimed off waivers. Considering a guy like Patrick Maroon gets passed over, and he fights and scores more, I’m not sure Harty’s NHL numbers make him a sure thing.

  118. maudite says:

    Jordan: As a theoretical team concept, that sounds like it would be grant hockey to watch.

    Seems the neanderthal population might get a little restless if they were told that size and grit and truculence and poise and character and excalibur and dragons and magical princesses aren’t as important in a skill system.

    This wins it for me.

  119. Lowetide says:

    stevezie:

    LT I was just wondering what makes you so sure Harty is a sure thing to get claimed off waivers. Considering a guy like Patrick Maroon gets passed over, and he fights and s

    Stevezie: I think Hartikainen is a better skater, and of course he’s younger. That said, I would have picked up Maroon, said so long ago.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/10/norman-bates.html

  120. Lowetide says:

    Peckham with mono. Wow. Crazy year for him

  121. HBomb says:

    Want a solution to the “tanking problem”?

    All first round picks for teams out of the playoffs are in the lottery. However, there is an even-weighting for all 14 spots.

    As such, ZERO incentive for being lousy to get a crack at any given year’s “blue chip” talent. Motivation to be as good as possible and make the playoffs.

  122. VanOil says:

    I have a great solution for the tanking problem. Have the Oilers make the playoffs, and none of us give a flying fuck about the draft for the next decade.

    Sorry grumpy, contemplating how bad this game could be.

    Tyler’s article about Hall’s bonus is interesting. http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5803

    Yeah a staged fight! Will win for sure now.

  123. Lowetide says:

    Good grief. A fight by Brown and then the shift of the year (aside from the 1line) and a goal for the Oilers. Crazy crazy

  124. Lowetide says:

    Potter (Eberle, Smyth)

  125. VanOil says:

    4th line not quite as strong when Eberle is not on it.

  126. nelson88 says:

    As a long time Barkov bandwagon passenger I’m torn between hoping they lose to maximize their shot and the desire to have them put a fork in the Wild’s playoff chances. Love the city and state but my dislike of the Wild is right up there with the Canucks and Flames.

  127. Lucinius says:

    Damnit, Oilers…

    Barkov is calling and this is what you do!?

    And we were tanking so very well..

    Thank you Smid for that penalty. Maybe that’ll get us back on track.

  128. striatic says:

    HBomb: All first round picks for teams out of the playoffs are in the lottery. However, there is an even-weighting for all 14 spots.
    As such, ZERO incentive for being lousy to get a crack at any given year’s “blue chip” talent. Motivation to be as good as possible and make the playoffs.

    i think that’s close but not ideal to fulfill the “consolation” function of the draft.

    all draft positions should be determined randomly but weighted using total points.

    so if a team finishes 30th with 42 points and another team finishes 29th with 43 points, the chances of either receiving the first overall are essentially even.

    each team should end up picking around 2 or 3 positions from their final ranking, but if there are a few teams within a game of one another at the bottom of the rankings, their chances of picking ahead of another are essentially random.

  129. nelson88 says:

    Teemu (Green, Davidson)

    LT must be drunk already :)

  130. striatic says:

    Lucinius: Damnit, Oilers…
    Barkov is calling and this is what you do!?

    i think the Wild will pull things together in the end.

    playing at home, playoffs on the line. they won’t roll over.

  131. VanOil says:

    With the Wilds inability to score this could be the most inopportune victory since Thoresen’s goal cost us Patrick Kane. If if it gifts Calgary the first line center they have so long dreamed of… it is to terrible to contemplate.

  132. Lucinius says:

    So is there seriously some speculation about Babcock not returning as coach for the Red Wings next year!?

  133. leadfarmer says:

    I think a top 2 pick should automatically make you not be able to draft higher than 3rd in the next years draft. After the oilers get out of the lotto of course.

  134. leadfarmer says:

    This wild team does not deserve to be in the playoffs. If the Redwings or Columbus were in this division they would be in already. But this is no time to start winning.

  135. VanOil says:

    Good thing Browns early fight taught the Wild not to mess with are skilled players.

  136. striatic says:

    the thing keeping me from really wanting a loss here is that with a win Edmonton will pass Calgary in the standings.

    finishing ahead of Calgary would make me happy, even if the Flames end up with Barkov instead of Edmonton.

  137. Lowetide says:

    WHAT THE HELL! 3-0!

  138. Lucinius says:

    Corey Potter is all “fuck this Barkov talk!”

    He is anti-Finn!

  139. striatic says:

    been too long since Edmonton finished ahead of Calgary.

    let’s see it.

  140. VanOil says:

    Will someone tell Potter he has a contract for next year already

  141. Rondo says:

    Lucinius,

    Lets trade Corey Potter to move up in the draft

  142. Lowetide says:

    nelson88:
    Teemu (Green, Davidson)

    LT must be drunk already :)

    lol. I’m watching my Eagles have a pretty good draft.

  143. Numenius says:

    If we win tonight I don’t see how our draft position can be higher than 7th (unless we win the lottery), so there go our chances for Barkov.

    I’m lovin’ this game though. So nice to see the Wild getting owned for a change.

    Potter a sniper. Who knew?

  144. Lucinius says:

    I thought Khabbi was supposed to cost us games when it mattered?

  145. nelson88 says:

    When you see goals like that from Ebs I wonder how anyone can question an above average shooting percentage prediction for his career. Hell of a shot by Hall on the 2nd goal as well.

    LT. I get the Expos and Oilers but how do you end up an Eagles fan?

  146. RickDeckard says:

    nelson88,

    Above average? Yes. 20%? No.

    Am I the only one that wouldn’t mind watching Khabi let in 5 just to make sure he never comes back?

  147. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers paper bag defence looking like shite as always.

    Khabibulin in goal, Hall+Horcoff on the same line…you can’t say they’re not trying.

  148. VanOil says:

    Wow, just Wow

  149. DBO says:

    uhhmm. so ok then.

  150. Lucinius says:

    Fucking Hell..

    The Hockey Gods sorting out the Oilers’ shooting percentage in one game?

  151. Lowetide says:

    nelson88:
    When you see goals like that from Ebs I wonder how anyone can question an above average shooting percentage prediction for his career. Hell of a shot by Hall on the 2nd goal as well.

    LT. I get the Expos and Oilers but how do you end up an Eagles fan?

    When I was a kid, the NFL didn’t come on until (iirc) after Canadian Thanksgiving. And you only got the NFC Norris (Minny, Chicago, Green Bay) and NFC east (Philly, NYG, Dallas).

    I cheered for the underdog, always have. The Eagles were terrawful. And I liked their helmets.

  152. Woodguy says:

    Captain Happy: Teams often make significant roster alterations at the trade deadline.

    Wouldn’t that skew your results?

    Also, teams often get back injured players for the playoffs (see Kesler, Bieksa, Tanev) altering the teams chemistry and game plans.

    I would think that, overall, the old adage that “just get in” is likely pretty close to true since there is so much chaos involved.

    Yes, to some extent.

    I posted earlier that I ran WAS fenclose since they re-united Backstrom and Ovi, and while those guys are tearing it up, WAS as a team still only gets 46% of the shot attempts when the game is close.

    The inury thing is important too, so in Kesler’s case I would look at his contributions last year, then dock him a little as he won’t be 100% then add a bit to VAN.

    Of course any tournament will have sample size effects and goalies can almost win or lose series on their own (see Fleury last year, Halak’s last year with MTL)

    Knowing the fenclose gives you an edge in betting, but its still an edge and not a crystal ball.

    That said, if a good bettor *knew* they had a 55-45 edge on every bet they made and could make unlimites amount of bets with that edge they’d be a billionaire in a matter of weeks starting with $100 dollars.

    If they didn’t practice good bank roll skills (manage your bet size vis a vi the size of your entire roll) they could go broke with that edge too as even with that massive edge, you still lose 45% of the time.

  153. DBO says:

    so, uuhhhmmm. yeah. wow

  154. VanOil says:

    Wow, just wow again

  155. leadfarmer says:

    How about them unsustainable shooting percentages.

    Lowetide,

    Not as good as my Vikings.

  156. Ribs says:

    Gilbert go Oop.

  157. Lucinius says:

    Hahahahahahaaha.

    Fuck.

    This is gonna cost us at draft time.. but god damn.

    Suck it Minnesota.

  158. OilClog says:

    this is the beginning of the most feared combo ever, Hall and Yakupov

  159. stevezie says:

    I hope we win. The BJs deserve the playoffs far more than Edmonton deserves their choice of prospects (plus, at this point, c’mon- we’re drafting high.)

  160. hunter1909 says:

    Morans for Monahan.

    “Hall to Yakupov” needs to be a permanent fixture.

  161. russ99 says:

    Well, there goes the tank job, but heck anytime we can destroy Minnesota, especially in their building is just fine by me. :D

    Plus Hall and Yak playing together is just downright scary. Hope this ends that Yak trade talk for good.

  162. striatic says:

    Hall + Yakssss 4eva.

    not going to kid myself though, this wouldn’t be happening unless the Wild were seriously cheating for offense in an effort to catch up.

  163. VanOil says:

    I have not been to bothered one way or the other with the Eagles. I like McNabb but did not like Vic. But Chip Kelly is the most exciting football coach I have ever seen. I don’t know if it will work in the NFL but it will be fun to watch.

  164. hunter1909 says:

    Time for Tom Gilbert to deliver a thundering bodycheck.

  165. steveb12344 says:

    Next to Calgary, and Vancouver, Minni is easily my 3rd most hated team. If they end up losing out to Columbus for the last spot, I can live with the decreased draft position.

  166. russ99 says:

    I was hoping at some point down the road I’d get to see my Oilers videogame dream line of Hall centering Yak and Hemsky, but this is pretty close.

  167. leadfarmer says:

    Well at least Harding is stopping half of his shots. This is one of those games that I think the wild would of been better of not even playing a goalie.

  168. In the Grease says:

    And Oil destroy their draft ranking by destroying the Wild in a meaningless game. Classic.

    Enjoy the win, it will likely have negative repercussions on the future of this franchise….. bleh.

  169. hunter1909 says:

    In the Grease: Enjoy the win, it will likely have negative repercussions on the future of this franchise….. bleh.

    Sure, but when was the last time Oilers did anything that had negative repercussions?

  170. VanOil says:

    The contracts of course are unknown but tonight could be very expensive for Katz. Hall getting in the Top 10 of p/pg scoring could be a 2M bonus and a Calder could be worth the same for Yakupov. Crazy, crazy game.

  171. striatic says:

    so who is better, Monanhan or Lindholm?

  172. Southern Oil says:

    Where’s DSF? If they miss the playoffs does he show his face?

  173. Lucinius says:

    By the way…

    Stretch (Rajala, Arcobello) and Green (Hartikainen, VandeVelde). Barons winning 3-2 at the moment after two periods.

  174. In the Grease says:

    hunter1909,

    Touché.

  175. In the Grease says:

    Barkov > Monahan > Lindholm

  176. BlueNoteNorth says:

    LT

    Better extend your draft list to the top seven.

    Go figure.

  177. hunter1909 says:

    Screw high draft picks. Oilers have enough fancy Dans out there already.

    lol

  178. steveb12344 says:

    3-0 for the O K’s after 1 period. Gernat with another goal. Big game 5 for them tied 2-2.

  179. Woodguy says:

    Just caught up on the PVR.

    Ahem….

    RE-SIGN KHABBY!!

    BRING EVERYONE BACK!!!

    V4.2 WAS A GENIUS!!

  180. Lowetide says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    LT

    Better extend your draft list to the top seven.

    Go figure.

    Okay, but people will go nuts when Lazar appears again. :-)

  181. VanOil says:

    Did I just hear some crack pot on Sportsnet choose the Leafs to win the Cup?

  182. steveb12344 says:

    LOL! Is Mclean really picking The Leafs to win the east, and make the finals, or win the Cup?

  183. Lucinius says:

    VanOil,

    Yes, and he did it to piss off Albertans, apparently.

  184. Woodguy says:

    And John Shannon picks the two teams who rode huge SH% and SV% into the playoffs as his secondary favorites in TOR and ANA.

    Experts.

  185. nelson88 says:

    Monahan is not a bad consolation prize but if the Oilers think that highly of Barkov (Kurri raves about him) I wonder how aggressively they would look to move up. Does Colorado, Tampa or Nashville flip picks for #7 and Hemsky? 2013 and 2014 1st round picks?

    If your the Oilers and think you are getting a franchise C (Barkov or McKinnon) along the lines of RNH do you move two 1st rounders? I would. Likely to draft mid teens next year and they have made plenty of picks in the last 3 seasons; with mixed success, but there is not shortage or prospects already in the pipeline. Need to start worrying more about quality vs. quantity.

  186. hunter1909 says:

    Fact is, Oilers already have enough top end players, from a cap perspective.

    What they don’t have, is an NHL quality defense. And no, one single measly addition to that defence isn’t going to make much difference, unless it’s 2006 Chris Pronger they’re adding.

  187. striatic says:

    nelson88: Does Colorado, Tampa or Nashville flip picks for #7 and Hemsky? 2013 and 2014 1st round picks?

    if i’m MacTavish, i’d do that in a heartbeat.

    i don’t think the teams picking top 4 would consider it though. a year of Hemsky at this point isn’t worth much.

  188. striatic says:

    Hemsky is worth something next deadline if he stays healthy and can perform next year and the Oilers are out of it.

    i doubt any of these things happen.

  189. hunter1909 says:

    striatic: a year of Hemsky at this point isn’t worth much.

    Hemsky basically plays like he hasn’t got any team mates. Hemsky’s like a diet of beluga caviar being fed to an MMA fighter.

  190. VanOil says:

    Has a goalie ever recorded two 40+ save shut outs in the same year? Sign the Man!

  191. striatic says:

    hunter1909: Hemsky basically plays like he hasn’t got any team mates.

    in fairness, he hasn’t had any to play with for most of his career.

  192. hunter1909 says:

    This game verifies everything Kevin Lowe believes about the 2013 Oilers.

    Where’s Whitney?

  193. nelson88 says:

    hunter1909:
    Fact is, Oilers already have enough top end players, from a cap perspective.

    What they don’t have, is an NHL quality defense. And no, one single measly addition to that defence isn’t going to make much difference, unless it’s 2006 Chris Pronger they’re adding.

    Agreed but admittedly I am a bit more glass half full. Smid, Petry, Schutlz Jr. are a good foundation for a strong if not spectacular D core. What really hurt this year was Whitney’s injury/lack of effectiveness and relying too much (intentional or not) on Schultz Jr. If Jr. can take a meaningful step forward next year; and i think he can as he is more prepared for the length of season, and they can find another “top 4″ I think they will be fine. Webber etc., is all nice but realistically what they need to find is a Beauchimen, Tyutin, Methot at a reasonable price.

  194. Gerta Rauss says:

    Well if Yak gets some consideration for the Calder(and wins) that will make this season a little more palatable-he’s got that celly workin’ for him with the voters.

    A quick glance at the sked and the standings shows the worst we could pick is 8(with somebody below us winning the lottery) and the highest we can finish is 5th with a favourable 3rd period in Calgary tonight and a Carolina win tomorrow and an Oilers loss.

  195. striatic says:

    Gerta Rauss: A quick glance at the sked and the standings shows the worst we could pick is 8(with somebody below us winning the lottery) and the highest we can finish is 5th with a favourable 3rd period in Calgary tonight and a Carolina win tomorrow and an Oilers loss.

    5th would be fine. 8th would be terrible.

    i can handle not getting Barkov so long as the team ends up with Monahan. missing out on both would be a disaster.

  196. bookje says:

    I think this game proves one thing.

    Next year is gonna be awesome!

  197. Gerta Rauss says:

    bookje,

    And we can trade Khabby at the draft for a late first rounder!!

  198. jake70 says:

    Let er rip guys….all in.

  199. nelson88 says:

    Disappointing season but in the heat of the moment fans naturally get too high or low. There is definitely work that needs to be done but with the competitive balance in the league I don’t think the canyon is as wide as some would have us believe.

    Every “expert” and arm chair fan like myself thought Cbus would be absolutely terrible this year. Turns out they had more balance then in previous years and with some decent goaltending and a playable system they are not that bad. Point being big gains can be made.

  200. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers play great hockey at this time of the season.

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