PROCUREMENT FILE: THE BLUE IS COVERED

This just in: the Edmonton Oilers won’t have to spend an early draft pick on a defensive prospect this summer. The cupboard is full. And then some. schultz1Justin Schultz was the big addition to the blueline last summer and has been splendid. Edmonton’s future blue already at the NHL level (Smid, Petry, now Schultz) increased the moment he stepped onto NHL ice. Once they find a fourth, the organization may even be able to deal from strength–although defensemen get injured so much, stop developing so often and slow down so quickly having a few extra is never a bad idea.

This has been a strong season for developing blue at all levels. Many of the kids outside pro hockey will be pushing to graduate this season. One player who won’t be turning pro?

dillon

HAS THE RANKING FOR D CHANGED OVER THE WINTER?

klefbom1

Back in December, I ranked them thusly:

  1. Justin Schultz
  2. Oscar Klefbom
  3. Martin Marincin
  4. Martin Gernat
  5. David Musil
  6. Dillon Simpson
  7. Joey Laleggia
  8. Colten Teubert
  9. Taylor Fedun
  10. Brandon Davidson
  11. Kyle Bigos
  12. Erik Gustafsson

simpson9

Now? I think this is closer to current reality

  1. Justin Schultz (-)
  2. Oscar Klefbom (-)
  3. Martin Marincin (-)
  4. David Musil (+1)
  5. Dillon Simpson (+1)
  6. Martin Gernat (-2)
  7. Joey Laleggia (-)
  8. Taylor Fedun (+1)
  9. Erik Gustafsson (+3)
  10. Brandon Davidson (-)
  11. Kyle Bigos (-)
  12. Colten Teubert (-4)

Some notes on the top 6:

  • Schultz is going to play in the NHL for a decade plus. He’s outstanding with the puck, has issues without but doesn’t lack toughness or ability. He’s strong and battles. Opposition forwards may win the puck, but they’re going to have to work like buggers to do it.
  • Klefbom’s season was lost, but the performance of Jonas Brodin in Minnesota perhaps gives us hope. I expect the Oilers to give him every chance to make the big club in the fall, but believe a season in OKC would be the wiser path.
  • Marincin has kept his spot in line with an uneven but overall satisfying rookie season in OKC. He’s a bit of a roverboat gambler–Oilers have a few–but he’s reached the AHL and didn’t falter. He should build on it next season and could be an NHL player by the end of his entry level deal.
  • Musil moves up based only on how much I got to see him this season and how very good he is defensively. He’s also strong–just like his Dad–and I think he could be another Laddy down the road (skating aside). Folks, I don’t know enough about projecting hockey players to say with authority that he’ll be able to play NHL level hockey with his footspeed; but if he can, David Musil will have a long career.
  • Simpson has moved up the UND depth chart smartly this season and another year should make him the best graduating college player (Oiler division) since Jeff Petry turned pro. He’s a rock solid prospect.
  • Martin Gernat moves down for a few reasons. I have had my suspicions about disconnects between player and organization but have not seen any public or private verbal about specifics. So, I’m left with the fact that this is a young, talented teenager far from home who perhaps marches to the beat of his own drum. Why does that mean moving him down two notches? Quality of competition and history. The fact the Oilers have not yet signed him is further evidence of a disconnect.

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43 Responses to "PROCUREMENT FILE: THE BLUE IS COVERED"

  1. jdrevenge1 says:

    Is the fact we’re at 52 contracts in play with the Gernat situation? Perhaps they’re waiting to clear some after seasons end?

  2. TheOtherJohn says:

    The question now becomes whether this large cluster of players can develop. I group Klefbom alone. I believe he will have a decade long NHL career. Do not believe we have a clue with anyone else. In last year of junior arrows pointed in right direction for Hamilton, Martindale & to lesser extent with Pitlick. that did not turn out too well. Sincerely hope they leave Marincin in the AHL another year to hone his craft.

    Could not agree more with your comment re David Musil. If he can overcome his footspeed problem he will be an NHL player. If he does not, he will not be a player at all.

    We ought not throw 5 or 6 of them in the AHL deep end next year to see if they can play. We need to ensure we have a couple of decent AHLers to leaven the roster so the kids don’t sink.

    Below Musil on your list, the likelihood of any of those kids making it is pretty remote although Simpson has certainly progressed nicely at ND. He shares footspeed issues.

    With exception of Klefbom, I see these kids challenging for spots two to three years out not over th next couple of years

  3. Captain Happy says:

    The NCAA signings continue:

    “The Minnesota Wild have locked up another talented Finnish forward with the announced signing Sunday of Erik Haula to an entry-level contract. According to Michael Russo of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, it’s a three-year deal.

    The 22-year-old Haula collected 16 goals, 51 points, a plus-20 rating and 14 penalty minutes in 37 games during his junior season at the University of Minnesota. He served as an alternate captain and led the Gophers in points, assists and plus-minus rating and ranked second in goals.

    The 5-foot-11, 190-pound Haula ranked second in the NCAA in assists and tied for fourth in scoring and was named to the 2012-13 All-WCHA Second Team and the All-WCHA Academic Team.”

  4. Lowetide says:

    jdrevenge1:
    Is the fact we’re at 52 contracts in play with the Gernat situation? Perhaps they’re waiting to clear some after seasons end?

    No, the contracts to Ewanyk and Kessy don’t count for this year’s contracts. These are all next year deals now.

  5. jfry says:

    It’s nice seeing Simpson and klefbom get here slowly. Same with harti. It will be nice to have some “mateurish” players who can step in a year or two down the line that will be on cheap contracts.

  6. eidy says:

    LT- I really hope that they sign Gernat. I found this in the new CBA, I don’t know how it applies to existing players.

    2.
    Exclusive Negotiating Rights
    NHL Clubs who draft European Players age 18 or 19 shall obtain four (4) years of exclusive negotiating rights following selection in the Draft. NHL Clubs who draft European Players age 20 or older shall obtain two (2) years of exclusive negotiating rights following selection in the Draft. If the four-year or two-year (as appropriate) period expires, Player will be eligible to enter the League as a Free Agent and will not be subject to re-entering the Draft.
    Current rules regarding exclusive negotiating rights for College Players will remain status quo. Parties to incorporate NHL/NHLPA Agreement on College Players leaving college prior to graduation (but following the fourth June 1 after date of Draft) (i.e., Goepfert Letter Agreement).

  7. BlacqueJacque says:

    It seems to me that college is becoming an increasingly effective option for developing defenders. Now I don’t know if it’s because they stay healthier (fewer games, more time to physically grow into the most physically demanding role in hockey), or if it’s the coaching, but at this point I would advise most of my defencemen to play in college, if they can get onto a well-coached team.

    That begs the question, though, that if college is becoming a hotspot for defenceman development, why does it seem like there aren’t that many great forwards coming out of those systems? Is it because forwards develop faster? Or that they’re less likely to get broken in an AHL season?

  8. BlacqueJacque says:

    jfry:
    It’s nice seeing Simpson and klefbom get here slowly. Same with harti. It will be nice to have some “mateurish” players who can step in a year or two down the line that will be on cheap contracts.

    Unfortunately, I don’t think we can credit the Oilers with Klefbom’s development path. They tried to pressure him into signing on last off-season.

  9. Hayek says:

    I can’t think of any defensemen who are making through these days without footspeed. If Musil has issues, maybe we should attempt to cut him loose now, and get some sort of return.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Hayek: He’s not a horrible skater, like a Cory Cross, but he’s not as fast as the other prospects. Alex Plante was a guy who had huge question marks in this area. Musil imo will play in the NHL, it’s a matter of how long and where he lands on the depth chart.

  11. VanOil says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Recent reports I have read on Simpson say that he has been working on foot speed with some results. Let’s hope Musil can due the same. I think there is a whole catalog of Summer School sentiment growing;

    Nuge: to the gym if not surgery.

    Yak: Tactics and positioning while drinking beer with WG

    Paajarvi: Boxing lessons. Cogliano of all players used to actually do this iirc.

    Musil: Power/Figure/Speed skating.

    Germat: A cultural adviser and mentor to help him deal with the honkies of kingsway.

    Any others?

    p.s. Tennis matters. Most would agree that Paajarvi is in the running for most improved player. If you look way back on the Oilers website for a rookie Paajarvi 101 his idol is Roger Federer. Our new head coach mentored Roger when he was Paajarvi’s age.

  12. jfry says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Wasn’t giving them credit at all. I’m sure they’ve pressured Simpson too. And their love of jonesy hair kept harti down. That said, we’ve ended in a decent spot.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Olivier Roy has started both Stockton games in the ECHL playoffs against Vegas, winning both and boasting a 1.91 and .934. He’s stopped 57 of 61 shots.

  14. steveb12344 says:

    Speaking of college D-men. Gilbert is a healthy scratch for The Wild tonight, for the first time in his career.

    His -13 is worse than even everyone on The Oilers.

    As per Michael Russo….

    “For the Wild, veteran defenseman Tom Gilbert, whose play has dipped like a few defensemen, will be scratched for what he says is the first time in his career. He says he has to get back to simplicity.

    Coach Mike Yeo said, “Hopefully this is something that spurs him to get it back. A lot of it is mental. I don’t think we have to get too much into it. I’m not saying that he’s been awful or he’s the reason that we lost three games, but I think it was time to make a change. Hopefully this helps him get back on track.”

    Gilbert is a minus-13, tied for 269th out of 275 NHL defensemen, and plainly has been playing badly.”

  15. eidy says:

    LT any thoughts on the info re: CBA, do you think Gernat falls into old rules because he was drafted then (ie 2 years to sign for european players after draft) or new CBA because he hasn’t signed (4 yours to sign european players)

  16. Lowetide says:

    eidy:
    LTany thoughts on the info re: CBA,do you think Gernat falls into old rules because he was drafted then (ie 2 years to sign for european players after draft) or new CBA because he hasn’t signed (4 yours to sign european players)

    I spoke to Corey Pronman yesterday on the radio show, he said that the scouts he’s talked to indicate Gernat would fall into the old rules. I believe that’s correct.

  17. Ice Sage says:

    Great thread ideas, today, as we sit in Oiler purgatory. Some fodder:

    1. Foot speed is key for a complete defenseman. I’m not sure it is something that can be ‘worked on’ – it is genetically and early developmentally secured (fast twitch fibers, myelin hardwiring and all that). Early on in the development of hockey players, the ‘big but slow’ kids gravitate to D, are rewarded for a while, then, if clever, can play positionally sound for a while but, eventually, the slow feet are limiting. If such players are lucky, they become Doug Murray, if not, Alex Plante.

    2. College development of defensemen is interesting. Watch any NCAA game and you will see how defensively sound it is and the scores reflect that . Learning to be a defenseman in hockey is a 15 year process and it’s great to see kids emerge in their early 20′s – the trend of plucking newfound talents from the NCAA will continue.

  18. eidy says:

    Thanks. They need to sign the man.

    Any idea on this new kid leach. With his pedigree/age, do you think he would be a better bet than Bigos?

  19. prairieschooner says:

    For Musil the Oilers seem to be able to improver footspeed for their players who need it.
    I am worried about Martin Gernat, the Oilers need to keep him in the fold.
    We have contracts for players who are further along in their careers and are less likely to crack the bigs.We know that 6′ 5″ defencemen do not grow on trees and for some time now the Oilers have been unable to find them hanging around 7-11s at 11pm on a Saturday night.

  20. LMHF#1 says:

    Ice Sage:
    Great thread ideas, today, as we sit in Oiler purgatory.Some fodder:

    1.Foot speed is key for a complete defenseman.I’m not sure it is something that can be ‘worked on’ – it is genetically and early developmentally secured (fast twitch fibers, myelin hardwiring and all that).

    Disagree. Proper, efficient technique trumps pure footspeed and if you’re looking for a building blocks of a complete defenceman, proper skating technique combined with an agile mind are going to get you to the starting line.

    There are more footspeed guys that either have no idea how to use their feet properly or spend their whole time out of position because of an inability to read the play than I’d care to count.

  21. VanOil says:

    Given that the Blue pipeline is so good I got to ware shades, what about next year in the NHL. It would seem prudent to get another vet who can support the team and mentor the kids. Even if Kelfbom goes straight to the NHL it seems a poor idea to count on him in a heavy minute role for a couple years.

    I would prefer the guy to not be a huge defensive liability like Whiteny, as a defenseman that is not defensively sound is not a defender. How about bringing back Eric Brewer? He is old and a little bit expensive but could bridge the two years until Kelfbom is ready for prime time and the next prospect is pushing. Further more he is just the sort of player you can dump off as a rental in the last season of their contract to restock the picks. TB has a major cap crunch coming this summer I don’t think the acquisition costs would be that high.

    We would have 2 kids (Schultz Jr, Kelfbom) 2 vets (Schultz Sr, Brewer) and 2 prime (Smid, Petry) and Potter as a #7. The prospects can push out the vets as the kids push into prime and become expensive, preferably 1 per year so we don’t end up too young and in experienced. It would be like we would have a plan.

  22. cabbiesmacker says:

    I think you can comfortably slide Simpson into the 3 – 4 spot without worries. All of the blathering about his foot speed last year was just that…blathering.

    Know the kid. Have seen him play lots. He’ll make it if he decides to go the hockey route although whether it’s with the Oilers is another conversation.

    Musil is the one I’d be fretting. I don’t see it at all. Meanwhile Brandon Saad went…..43rd?

    Mediocre Bastard Stu

  23. DeadmanWaking says:

    I posted my long ramble of the day on the end of the previous thread where it’s less obtrusive; it runs the gambit from Keith Moon to Ralph Krueger, and everything in between.

  24. godot10 says:

    steveb12344:
    Speaking of college D-men. Gilbert is a healthy scratch for The Wild tonight, for the first time in his career.

    His -13 is worse than even everyone on The Oilers.

    As per Michael Russo….

    “For the Wild, veteran defenseman Tom Gilbert, whose play has dipped like a few defensemen, will be scratched for what he says is the first time in his career. He says he has to get back to simplicity.

    Coach Mike Yeo said, “Hopefully this is something that spurs him to get it back. A lot of it is mental. I don’t think we have to get too much into it. I’m not saying that he’s been awful or he’s the reason that we lost three games, but I think it was time to make a change. Hopefully this helps him get back on track.”

    Gilbert is a minus-13, tied for 269th out of 275 NHL defensemen, and plainly has been playing badly.”

    Kyle Brodziak is also like -15 with a $2.8 million dollar cap hit on his new 3-year deal.

  25. godot10 says:

    godot10: Kyle Brodziak is also like -15 with a $2.8 million dollar cap hit on his new 3-year deal.

    Okay…a PDO of <.900 and a zone start of 35% and an on-ice save percentage < .890. I guess that gets you to -15

  26. Ice Sage says:

    LMHF#1: Disagree. Proper, efficient technique trumps pure footspeed and if you’re looking for a building blocks of a complete defenceman, proper skating technique combined with an agile mind are going to get you to the starting line.There are more footspeed guys that either have no idea how to use their feet properly or spend their whole time out of position because of an inability to read the play than I’d care to count.

    Point taken and agree that there are speedy D who are too chaotic – I should have clarified that I was looking at elite complete defensemen – those who can get way beyond ‘the starting line’, which is what the Oil are hoping will spring from the crop of guys that have been drafted. The game is getting faster, the forwards are freed up to be more shifty – D gotta have roadrunner legs (and good brains, and size, and a good first pass…). Dylan McIlrath types need not apply.

  27. MrSmitty says:

    I am also a big believer in Gernat. I want him signed the guys got the tools to be a damn good defender in the NHL. He needs coaching and some more experience. The offense is already there for him and offense isn’t something you can teach but the defensive side can be.

    Having watched Musil a few times I have seen him bad. He seems really slow to me and will really have to work to get his foot speed up to a level where he will be able to compete. I hope he can do it but I have my doubts.

  28. Lucinius says:

    Well, Detroit loses in regulation; Oilers stay 4 back of 8th with a game in hand on Detroit. St. Louis looks to be a shoo-in now for the playoffs. Detroit or Minnesota could fall out, still, with Phoenix, Columbus or Edmonton taking their place. Unlikely it’ll be the Oilers, even though we have two games left against Minny… its not exactly a team we’ve done well against.

    Still, the team has improved this year. Despite much gnashing of teeth by many in recent days (myself included), the team is getting there. Management isn’t helping, but that’s nothing new.

    Unrelated, but…

    Nice to see Ovechkin kicking out a lot of goals recently to prove a lot of the MSM talking heads wrong (especially Sportsnet) who said they figured he was done as a top 3-5 scorer in the NHL — and here he is close to catching Stamkos now that Oates’ system has settled in and Ovechkin has returned to playing with more emotion.

    Ovechkin is the player I think of when I consider Yak’s future. However, I don’t think Yak has Ovechkin’s pure ability to score (especially right out of the gate), but has a more rounded over-all game ahead of him — and not being counted on to do everything like Ovechkin was could help.

  29. rickithebear says:

    steveb12344:
    Speaking of college D-men. Gilbert is a healthy scratch for The Wild tonight, for the first time in his career.

    His -13 is worse than even everyone on The Oilers.

    As per Michael Russo….

    “For the Wild, veteran defenseman Tom Gilbert, whose play has dipped like a few defensemen, will be scratched for what he says is the first time in his career. He says he has to get back to simplicity.

    Coach Mike Yeo said, “Hopefully this is something that spurs him to get it back. A lot of it is mental. I don’t think we have to get too much into it. I’m not saying that he’s been awful or he’s the reason that we lost three games, but I think it was time to make a change. Hopefully this helps him get back on track.”

    Gilbert is a minus-13, tied for 269th out of 275 NHL defensemen, and plainly has been playing badly.”

    Tom has reverted to Form!

    Wait +/- is a measure of goals.

    Lets look at his corsi!
    He may be doing great!

  30. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    This is completely off-topic, so I do apologise, but this may be of interest to followers of former Oiler draft picks (Bruce?!):

    Corey Neilson, drafted 53rd Overall in the 1994 draft by the Edmonton Oilers, just coached the Nottingham Panthers of the British Elite League (EIHL) to their 3rd consecutive EIHL Playoff title. Earlier this season they also won their first regular season title since 1956, and their 4th consecutive Challenge Cup title.

    He also still plays on defence for the team at the age of 36.

    I know its only the EIHL, but that’s still a pretty impressive run for a player-coach in any league let alone the land of Tony Hand.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Chris: Damn straight! The Tony Hand league is pretty damn good hockey from what I’m told. Thanks for passing it along.

  32. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    Lowetide,

    Yeah it’s a very entertaining league. There’s a lot of ex-CHL players here so it’s not like they’re clueless on the ice. I’d love for the EIHL, and indeed the game in general, to get more attention over here but it’s tricky. Not having ice rinks in most cities doesn’t help.

    But the cities that do have rinks are very fond of their teams, Cardiff, Belfast and Nottingham in particular.

    God love Tony Hand, what a player – damn shame he didn’t end up playing in the NHL.

  33. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Okay…a PDO of<.900 and a zone start of 35% and an on-ice save percentage < .890. I guess that gets you to -15

    PDO!
    Measure of luck or skill?
    there are two positions!
    Both of equal evidence!
    None!

  34. LMHF#1 says:

    Ice Sage: Point taken and agree that there are speedy D who are too chaotic – I should have clarified that I was looking at elite complete defensemen – those who can get way beyond ‘the starting line’, which is what the Oil are hoping will spring from the crop of guys that have been drafted. The game is getting faster, the forwards are freed up to be more shifty – D gotta have roadrunner legs (and good brains, and size, and a good first pass…).Dylan McIlrath types need not apply.

    Certainly agreed on McIlrath types. I honestly have no use for them on a good hockey team.

    I’d prefer the ‘horse’ to the ‘roadrunner’. Pronger/Pitkanen type skaters.

  35. Oiler_Kiwi says:

    Chris Hext—formerly EasyOil—:
    This is completely off-topic, so I do apologise, but this may be of interest to followers of former Oiler draft picks (Bruce?!):

    Corey Neilson, drafted 53rd Overall in the 1994 draft by the Edmonton Oilers, just coached the Nottingham Panthers of the British Elite League (EIHL) to their 3rd consecutive EIHL Playoff title.Earlier this season they also won their first regular season title since 1956, and their 4th consecutive Challenge Cup title.

    He also still plays on defence for the team at the age of 36.

    I know its only the EIHL, but that’s still a pretty impressive run for a player-coach in any league let alone the land of Tony Hand.

    He wasn’t on the ice for today’s win wearing a suit coaching from the bench.

    I’ve been to a few games this season of my local EIHL team, the Braehead Clan in Glasgow. Great atmosphere and entertaining on the whole. We had Detroit Red Wing Drew Miller playing for us during the lockout.

  36. dessert1111 says:

    LT, have you been keeping up with OKC lately? I am watching today’s and watched last night’s, the first ones I’ve seen since January. Fedun’s footspeed looks a lot better than at the beginning of the year, perhaps at pre-injury levels, and overall he looks quite good. Seems to be more offensive than the beginning of the year too. I’d have him ahead of Laleggia and quite possibly Gernat as well.

    Marincin looks to be settling down and picking his spots a bit better. Won’t be ready for awhile yet (or so it seems), but good signs!

  37. Bank Shot says:

    It sure wouldn’t hurt to draft a defenceman with the Oilers top pick if that player is the best of whats left.

    The Nashville, and the Phoenix have been winning games for years despite not having any forwards that can make a forward pass. Defence matters, and the real good two way ones are available about as often as first line centers.

    Generally if you want a beast back there, you have to build your own. The Oilers don’t have that player in their system now, so it couldn’t hurt to make an attempt at grabbing one.

  38. TheOtherJohn says:

    prairieschooner:
    For Musil the Oilers seem to be able to improver footspeed for their players who need it.
    I am worried about Martin Gernat, the Oilers need to keep him in the fold.
    We have contracts for players who are further along in their careers and are less likely to crack the bigs.We know that 6′ 5″ defencemen do not grow on trees and for some time now the Oilers have been unable to find them hanging around 7-11s at 11pm on a Saturday night.

    What Oiler prospect has the team help improved their footspeed? Plante? Nope. Harti? Not really Gagner? Worked with Sid Crosby’s trainer

  39. jp says:

    TheOtherJohn: What Oiler prospecthas the team help improved their footspeed? Plante? Nope. Harti? Not really Gagner? Worked with Sid Crosby’s trainer

    Whitney?

  40. regwald says:

    jp: Whitney?

    I have the following list:

    Lander, Harti, MacIntyre (yes, big Mac. if you saw him skate when they first picked him up on waivers until when he left the Oilers, it was obvious that Serdachny worked with him on his stride).

    Has anyone looks at Ganger now vs his rookie season. He has improved his skating. There is hope.

    Back to the point with Musil, I agree with LT, he will have an NHL career. Even if it is a shutdown 5,6 or 7 guy

  41. G Money says:

    LMHF#1: Disagree. Proper, efficient technique trumps pure footspeed and if you’re looking for a building blocks of a complete defenceman, proper skating technique combined with an agile mind are going to get you to the starting line.

    There are more footspeed guys that either have no idea how to use their feet properly or spend their whole time out of position because of an inability to read the play than I’d care to count.

    And that’s what makes developing defenseman oh so very tough.

    At every jump in level, the difficulty in reading the play goes up. The technique required improves. The minimum footspeed required goes up.

    If any of those fall off at any time, or don’t improve at the level required, you get yet another promising prospect who never makes it to the bigs.

    And that’s even without the fact that you can’t teach size!

  42. russ99 says:

    Marincin could help out next year, but I’d really prefer him to get another full year in the “A” to round out his game before taking the leap.

    Klefbom obviously needs further development and to get used to the North American game. To assume he’ll draw into a NHL job straight off next season hamstrung by a steep learning curve is wishful thinking, and would be yet another excuse by management to string out the rebuild.

    Gernat and Musil need AHL seasons to impact the big club.

    We need two defensemen in FA or via trade this summer to compete next season:

    1) Top pairing guy as everyone suspects. Streit could be an older stopgap if nobody better is available.

    2) A replacement for Sutton, tough as nails stay at home guy who’s really hard to play against. Fistric has done a yeoman job this year when he’s drawn in, but IMO isn’t really at the level of a Sutton.

  43. CrazyCoach says:

    I agree with Russ99 about keeping Marincin down on the farm for at least one year. I know that he needed about a season and a half here in Prince George before he adjusted to the smaller ice surface and his coordination caught up. He’s a bit of a beanpole so he needs to gain some strength before taking on the likes of Lucic or even Toews.

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